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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2019‒03‒18
29 papers chosen by |
| By: | Nicolas De Vijlder; Koen Schoors (-) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the hypothesis that the economic divergence across Flemish localities between 1830 and 1910 is explained by the theory of Hernando de Soto. We hypothesize that the uniform land rights installed after the French revolution provided borrowers with an attractive form of collateral. Conditional on the presence of local financial development provided by a new government-owned bank this eased access to external finance and fostered industrial and commercial economic activity. Using primary historical data of about 1179 localities in Flanders we find that the variation in the local value of land (collateral) and the variation in local financial development jointly explain a substantial amount of the variation in non-agricultural employment accumulated between 1830 and 1910. By 1910 industrial and commercial economic activity was more developed in localities where both early (1846) rural land prices were high and early (1880) local financial development was more pronounced, which is in line with the “de Soto” hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | de Soto, financial institutions, industrial development, land prices, Flanders, 19th - 20th centuries |
| JEL: | N93 O43 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:19/962&r=all |
| By: | Rota, Mauro (University of Rome); Weisdorf, Jacob (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We compare early-modern Roman construction wages to Judy Stephenson’s downward-adjusted construction wages for London. We find that Roman workers earned at least as much as their London counterparts in the run-up to the Industrial Revolution, challenging the high-wage-economy explanation for why the Industrial Revolution was English and not Italian. We argue, however, that daily construction wages present a poor testing ground for the high-wage hypothesis, proposing instead that wages are compared among permanent employees in sectors less prone to seasonality and economic fluctuations than construction work. |
| Keywords: | Construction Work, Convergence, Divergence, Industrial Revolution; Living Standards; Prices, Wages. JEL Classification: J3, J4, J8, I3, N33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:400&r=all |
| By: | Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues |
| Abstract: | The wine sector involves several stakeholders in its several dimensions and attract numerous consumers and curious from the more diverse segments. In these frameworks the historical records of wine play a relevant role, namely, to promote the wine as something more than a good and to create identity. In this perspective, the research here present makes a literature survey, considering 39 documents obtained from the Web of Science (all databases) related with the following topic: old wine world history. These documents were first analysed through the Atlas.ti software. This literature review shows the richness of the history related with the wine that for some studies started on the Neolithic and stresses the role of the Romans to spread the vineyards across the Europe. |
| Keywords: | Civilizations,Literature review,Atlas.ti,Qualitative analysis |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:193461&r=all |
| By: | Croix, David de la (IRES, UCLouvain and CEPR); Schneider, Eric B. (London School of Economics and CEPR); Weisdorf, Jacob (University of Southern Denmark, CEPR, and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | In explaining England’s early industrial development, previous research has highlighted that wealthy pre-industrial elites had more surviving offspring than their poorer counterparts. Thus, entrepreneurial traits spread and helped England grow rich. We contest this view, showing that lower-class reproduction rates were no different from the elites when taking singleness and childlessness into account. Elites married less and were more often childless. Many died without descendants. We find that the middle classes had the highest net reproduction and argue that this advantage was instrumental to England’s economic success because the middle class invested most strongly in human capital. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Marriage, Childlessness, European Marriage Pattern, Industrial Revolution, Evolutionary Advantage, Social Class JEL Classification: J12, J13, N33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:406&r=all |
| By: | Lars Boerner (Martin-Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg); Jared Rubin (Chapman University); Battista Severgnini (Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | The public mechanical clock and the movable type printing press were two of the most important and complex general purpose technologies of the late medieval period. We document two of their most important, yet unforeseeable, consequences. First, an instrumental variables analysis indicates that towns that were early adopters of clocks were more likely to also be early adopters of presses. We posit that towns with clocks became upper-tail human capital hubs—both technologies required extensive technical know-how that had many points of overlap. Second, a three-stage instrumental variables analysis indicates that the press influenced the adoption of Lutheranism and Calvinism, while the clock’s effect on the Reformation was indirect (via the press). |
| Keywords: | mechanical clock, printing press, technology, Reformation, human capital, Calvinism, Lutheranism, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | N33 N73 O33 O34 P48 Z12 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:19-07&r=all |
| By: | Morcillo Laiz, Álvaro |
| Abstract: | The literature on the development of Mexican social sciences during the twentieth century has rarely considered universities as part of the state. If we do, then universities are characterized by traits similar to those of the state, such as clientelism. This plausible hypothesis has never been fully unexamined. Another trait of the literature that impairs our knowledge of the Mexican social sciences is the neglect of external actors, in particular by US philanthropies. In this manuscript I argue that the Rockefeller Foundation patronised liberal scholarship, practiced according to formal rational criteria, as an alternative to what foundation officers perceived as clientelism and amateurism at universities. While in the long run foundations were extremely consequential for Latin American social sciences, and therefore frequently considered part of a US imperialistic drive towards cultural hegemony in Latin America, they were not unitary actors and frequently failed to predict the actual impact of their grants. |
| Keywords: | intellectual history,sociology of science,history of sociology,international political sociology,cultural diplomacy,U.S.-Latin American relations,Mexico,Rockefeller Foundation,José Medina Echavarría,Daniel Cosío Villegas,El Colegio de México,Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales (UNAM),Wissenschaftssoziologie,Soziologiegeschichte,Internationale politische Soziologie,Kulturdiplomatie,Wissenschaftsförderung,US-lateinamerikanische Beziehungen,Mexiko,Rockefeller Stiftung |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbtci:spiv2019101&r=all |
| By: | Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Mookherjee, Dilip (Boston University); Munshi, Kaivan (University of Cambridge); Sanclemente, Mario (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We argue that community networks played an important role in the emergence of Indian entrepreneurship in the early stages of the cotton textile and jute textile industries in the late 19th and early 20th century respectively, overcoming the lack of market institutions and government support. From business registers, we construct a yearly panel dataset of entrepreneurs in these two industries. We find no evidence that entry is affected by prior trading experience or price shocks in the corresponding upstream sector. Firm directors exhibited a high degree of clustering of entrepreneurs by community. The dynamics of entry is consistent with a model of network-based dynamics. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:402&r=all |
| By: | Albanesi, Stefania |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a real DSGE model with gender differences in labor supply and productivity. The model is used to assess the impact of changing trends in female labor supply on productivity and TFP growth and aggregate business cycles. We find that the growth in women's labor supply and relative productivity contributed substantially to TFP growth starting from the early 1980s, even if it depressed average labor productivity growth, contributing to the 1970s productivity slowdown. We also show that the lower cyclicality of female hours and their growing share in aggregate hours is able to account for a large fraction of the decline in the cyclicality of aggregate hours during the great moderation, as well as the decline in the correlation between average labor productivity and hours. Finally, we show that the discontinued growth in female labor supply after the 1990s played a substantial role in the jobless recoveries following the 2001 and 2007-2009 recession. Moreover, it also depressed aggregate hours and output growth during the late 1990s and mid 2000s expansions and it reduced male wages. These results suggest that continued growth in female hours since the early 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; female employment; Great Moderation; jobless recoveries; productivity slowdown |
| JEL: | E27 E32 E37 J11 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13578&r=all |
| By: | Jan David Bakker; Stephan Maurer; Jörn-Steffen Pischke; Ferdinand Rauch |
| Abstract: | Stephan Maurer and colleagues investigate the growth effects of one of the first trade expansions in history: the crossing of the Mediterranean by the Phoenicians |
| Keywords: | growth,trade |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:547&r=all |
| By: | Begoña Gutiérrez Nieto; Carlos Serrano-Cinca |
| Abstract: | In the last 20 years, microfinance has moved from a promise to reality, although with ups and downs. This paper reviews 1,874 papers published from 1997 to 2017 to perform a scientometric analysis of the microfinance field. The literature review is based on bibliometric data: keyword co-occurrence networks and citation networks were exploited for knowledge mapping. Data analysis shows the two research traditions: papers focusing on clients (welfarists) and papers focusing on microfinance entities themselves (institutionalists). Institutionalism, which had little presence in the early research in microfinance, now exhibits great strength. A chronological analysis reveals the evolution of the topics most interesting to researchers: the first stage described the innovations of the microcredit practices and their impact; the second and very expansive stage in which microfinance institutions’ peculiarities were analyzed; and nowadays the sector is mature but with negative aspects arising, such as mission drift. The keywords analysis discovers emerging research topics, shows the use of sophisticated techniques, and recognizes an emerging trend of the sector: achieving financial inclusion. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance; Microcredit; Literature review; Scientometrics; Welfarism; Institutionalism |
| JEL: | B21 C83 |
| Date: | 2019–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/285083&r=all |
| By: | Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues |
| Abstract: | The wine has its own place in the societies, involving several dimensions, since the socioeconomic until the cultural level. In fact, in various countries and regions, the wine has a marked cultural presence, or because it is usual to consume wine at meals, or because it is an important ingredient in any meeting of friends. However, the cultural perspective of wine changes across regions and countries. In this framework the main objective of this study is to explore the cultural dimension of wine around the world. For that, it was considered 57 articles obtained from the Web of Science (all databases) for the topic “wine culture”. These documents were explored first with the bibliometric software VOSviewer and analysed after through literature review. |
| Keywords: | Bibliometric analysis,Literature review,Web of Science,VOSviewer |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:193460&r=all |
| By: | Katherine Eriksson; Katheryn Russ; Jay C. Shambaugh; Minfei Xu |
| Abstract: | Using data over more than a century, we show that shifts in the location of manufacturing industries are a domestic reflection of what the international trade literature refers to as the product cycle in a cross-country context, with industries spawning in high-wage areas with larger pools of educated workers and moving to lower-wage areas with less education as they age or become “standardized.” We exploit the China shock industries as a set of industries that were in the late-stage product cycle by 1990 and show how the activity in those industries shifted from high-innovation areas to low-education areas over the 20th century. The analysis also suggests that the resilience of local labor markets to manufacturing shocks depends on local industries’ phase in the product cycle, on local education levels, and on local manufacturing wages. The risk of unemployment and detachment from the labor force rises most when a shock hits in areas where an industry already has begun phasing out, wages are high, or education levels are low. The results are consistent with the belief that there are long-term, secular trends in U.S. industrial structure driving the movement of industries, which shocks may mitigate or accelerate. |
| JEL: | F10 F16 F43 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25646&r=all |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Daniel M. Sturm |
| Abstract: | Stephen Redding and colleagues examine how the introduction of steam railways shaped the emerging metropolitan area of London. |
| Keywords: | railways, cities, london |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:548&r=all |
| By: | Margaret M. Jacobson; Eric M. Leeper; Bruce Preston |
| Abstract: | When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted what had been effectively real government debt into nominal government debt to open the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. We argue that he followed a state-contingent fiscal rule that ran nominal-debt-financed primary deficits until the price level rose and economic activity recovered. Theory suggests that government spending multipliers can be substantially larger when fiscal expansions are unbacked than when they are tax-backed. VAR estimates find that primary deficits made quantitatively important contributions to raising both the price level and real GNP from 1933 through 1937. The evidence does not support the conventional monetary explanation that gold revaluation and gold inflows, which were permitted to raise the monetary base, drove the recovery independently of fiscal actions. |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E6 N12 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25629&r=all |
| By: | Dodge Cahan; Luisa Dörr; Niklas Potrafke |
| Abstract: | We examine the extent to which government ideology has influenced monetary policy in OECD countries since the 1970s. In line with important changes in the global econ-omy and differences across countries, regression results yield heterogeneous infer-ences depending on the time period and the exchange rate regime/central bank de-pendence of the countries in the sample. Over the 1972-2010 period, Taylor rule speci-fications do not suggest a relationship between government ideology and monetary policy as measured by the short-term nominal interest rate or the rate of monetary expansion minus GDP trend growth. Monetary policy was, however, associated with government ideology in the 1990s: short-term nominal interest rates were lower under leftwing than rightwing governments when central banks depended on the directives of the government and exchange rates were flexible. Very independent central banks, however, raised interest rates when leftwing governments were in office. We describe the historical evidence for several individual countries. |
| Keywords: | Government ideology, monetary policy, partisan politics, panel data |
| JEL: | D72 E52 E58 C23 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_296&r=all |
| By: | Milanovic, Branko; Mijatovic, Bosko |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the first estimate of the real welfare ratio for Serbia using the 19th century data on wages of skilled and unskilled workers (including the part paid in kind) and prices of goods that enter into "subsistence" and "respectability" consumption baskets. It finds a stagnation of unskilled wage close to the welfare ratio of 1, and a modest increase in skilled wage. The paper introduces several adjustment to conventional methodology in order to make it more relevant for predominantly agricultural societies. |
| Keywords: | Welfare ratio, real wage, Serbia, agricultural economy |
| JEL: | N3 N33 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92585&r=all |
| By: | Alcay, Alejandro; Escudero, Carlos |
| Abstract: | Throughout this work, a series of microeconomic models have been estimated for the Spanish case in order to make an explanatory analysis of the changes in the different groups of goods that make up the food category. After making the appropriate verifications, the Rotterdam model is selected as closer to the reality of the Spanish data. During the 1980s and 1990s, there was an expansion in spending on consumption of beverages -especially non-alcoholic- in Spain, which gradually weakened, leaving beverages as staples, losing participation in spending on an ongoing basis. The category of snuff has lost relative importance in spending on food, however, has become increasingly close to a luxury good as its price becomes more expensive with respect to the decrease in demand. The food category has been unequivocally maintained as a staple, although it has maintained its preponderance as a category of expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Demanda de Alimentos, Renta y Precios, Modelos Microeconómicos, España (1980-2015) |
| JEL: | D12 |
| Date: | 2019–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92698&r=all |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Michael Haupert (University of Wisconsin-La Crosse) |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:05-19&r=all |
| By: | Accominotti, Olivier; Cen, Jason; Chambers, David; Marsh, Ian W |
| Abstract: | This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders. |
| Keywords: | carry trade; Exchange Rate Regime |
| JEL: | F31 G12 G15 N20 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13571&r=all |
| By: | Luis Cárdenas del Rey (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se analiza el crecimiento económico de la economía española durante el período 1957-1975, que cubre el segundo franquismo o etapa tecnocrática. El principal objetivo es contribuir a una explicación del crecimiento de la demanda interna que se produjo durante el período y que, a pesar de la gran atención que ha despertado el período, no cuenta con estudios hasta la fecha. Siguiendo los modelos de Bhaduri y Marglin, la tesis principal sostiene que el incremento en la retribución salarial, resultado de la movilización obrera, tuvo un efecto positivo en el crecimiento, la productividad y la inversión, i.e., un modelo guiado por los salarios (wage-led) así como los efectos de feedback que conlleva. El contraste de hipótesis se realiza siguiendo una metodología de ecuaciones simultáneas, concretamente mediante un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos VAR, obteniendo que efectivamente se produce una situación de liderazgo de los salarios. |
| Keywords: | Franquismo, Inversión, Economía española, Modelos VAR, Crecimiento dirigido por los salarios |
| JEL: | E11 E22 E32 N14 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:1906&r=all |
| By: | Ufuk Akcigit; Sina T. Ates; Giammario Impullitti |
| Abstract: | Giammario Impullitti and colleagues show that it was the Reagan administration's innovation policy - not a retreat from globalisation - that promoted US growth. |
| Keywords: | innovation, protectionism |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:545&r=all |
| By: | Jose Ramon Morales Arilla (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the unintended economic consequences of increases in violence following the Mexican Drug War. We study the effects on exports in municipalities with different levels of exposure to violence after the policy. A focus on exports allows us to control for demand shocks by comparing exports of the same product to the same country of destination. Building on the close elections identification strategy proposed by Dell (2015), we show that municipalities that are exogenously exposed to the Drug War experience a 40% decrease in export growth on the in- tensive margin. Large exporters suffer larger effects, along with exports of more complex, capital intensive, and skill intensive products. Finally, using firm level data, we provide evidence consistent with violence increasing marginal exporting costs. |
| Keywords: | Exports, Violence, Mexico, Regression Discontinuity |
| JEL: | H56 D72 F16 N76 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:109a&r=all |
| By: | Jeremiah Dittmar |
| Abstract: | Jeremiah Dittmar explores the effects of the printing press and the new forms of competition that accompanied its introduction. |
| Keywords: | new media,competition |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:544&r=all |
| By: | Jongrim Ha; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska L. Ohnsorge |
| Abstract: | We study the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. Our methodology allows us to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze commonalities in inflation synchronization across a wide range of inflation measures. We report three major results. First, inflation movements have become increasingly synchronized internationally over time: a common global factor has accounted for about 22 percent of variation in national inflation rates since 2001. Second, inflation synchronization has also become more broad-based: while it was previously much more pronounced among advanced economies than among emerging market and developing economies, it has become substantial in both groups over the past two decades. In addition, inflation synchronization has become significant across all inflation measures since 2001, whereas it was previously prominent only for inflation measures that included mostly tradable goods. |
| Keywords: | Global inflation, synchronization, dynamic factor model, advanced economies, emerging markets, developing economies. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 F42 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-24&r=all |
| By: | Guirkinger, Catherine; Platteau, Jean-Philippe |
| Abstract: | The present paper surveys significant research dealing with some neglected roles of the family and its dynamics in the presence of changes in the economic environment. Attention is thus directed to the response of family systems to changes in resource endowments, outside economic opportunities, the development of markets, and surrounding institutions. Two other original features of our investigation deserve to be emphasized. First, unlike what is generally done in economics, we extensively draw from scholarly works of social scientists, family historians in particular. Second, in order to shed light on family dynamics in present-day developing countries, we assess the state of knowledge about the transformation of family patterns in Europe during a long period stretching back to the early Middle Ages and even earlier. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13570&r=all |
| By: | David Popp |
| Abstract: | Innovation is an important part of environmental policy, and encouraging innovation is often an explicit goal of policymakers. A large literature in environmental economics examines the links between environmental policy and innovation. Popp et al. (2010) provides an extensive review of the literature on environmental innovation. This paper updates that review, highlighting research published during the past decade, with a focus on empirical research examining links between environmental policy and environmentally friendly innovation. I highlight major trends in the literature, including an increased number of cross-country studies and a focus on the effect of different policy instruments on innovation. I include a discussion of the justifications and evidence for technology-specific policy incentives and present evidence on the effectiveness of government R&D spending. My review concludes with a discussion of three promising areas for new research on environmental innovation. |
| JEL: | O31 O38 Q55 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25631&r=all |
| By: | Wilman Gómez; Carlos Esteban Posada; Remberto Rhenals |
| Date: | 2018–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:017203&r=all |
| By: | Martin Ravallion |
| Abstract: | Ethnic riots broke out in Malaysia in 1969, prompting a national effort at affirmative action favoring the poorer (majority) of “Bumiputera” (mainly Malays). Since then, Malaysia’s official poverty measures indicate one of the fastest long-term rates of poverty reduction in the world, due to both economic growth and falling inequality. Did ethnic inequality fall since 1969 and was that a key factor in the country’s success in reducing poverty and in managing inequality? New measures in this paper indicate a substantial decline in relative ethnic inequality. This brought down national relative inequality, though not enough to prevent rising absolute inequality, given the initial disparities. A new analytic decomposition of the rate of poverty reduction reveals that ethnic redistribution helped reduce poverty, although it was not as important as the overall rate of growth in household incomes. Despite past progress in reducing ethnic inequality, the responsiveness of the national poverty rate to ethnic redistribution remains high even today. |
| JEL: | I32 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25640&r=all |
| By: | Vernon, Victoria; Zimmermann, Klaus F. |
| Abstract: | Throughout history, border walls and fences have been built for defense, to claim land, to signal power, and to control migration. The costs of fortifications are large while the benefits are questionable. The recent trend of building walls and fences signals a paradox: In spite of the anti-immigration rhetoric of policymakers, there is little evidence that walls are effective in reducing terrorism, migration, and smuggling. Economic research suggests large benefits to open border policies in the face of increasing global migration pressures. Less restrictive migration policies should be accompanied by institutional changes aimed at increasing growth, improving security and reducing income inequality in poorer countries. |
| Keywords: | Walls,fences,defense,security,international migration,mobility |
| JEL: | F22 H56 J61 N4 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:330&r=all |