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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2017‒08‒27
thirty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Ma, Debin (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the phenomenal transformation of banking and finance, public debt and monetary regimes during 1900-1937, a period of great political instability in Chinese history. To understand why sectors which are often most vulnerable to the security of property rights and contract enforcement, have become the vanguard of growth in such an era of uncertainty, I highlight the role of institutions as seen in the form of a business dominated quasi-political structure that grew outside the formal political sphere. This structure rested on the institutional nexus of Western treaty ports (with Shanghai being the most important) and China Maritime Customs service, a relatively autonomous tax bureaucracy. By ensuring the credibility of repayment of government bonds, this financial-fiscal mechanism laid the institutional foundation for the rise of modern Chinese banks, a viable market for public debt and increasing supply of reputable convertible bank notes. My survey sheds new light on some of the most important and controversial issues related to Chinese and global economic history. |
| Keywords: | China; financial revolution; public debt; credible commitment JEL Classification: N15; N25;N45;E42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:319&r=his |
| By: | Taalbi, Josef (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the factors that have shaped the long-term evolution of the ICT industry in Sweden, 1950-2013. Exploiting a new historical micro-database on actual innovation output, the driving forces and technological interdependencies in the third industrial revolution are chronicled. The results of this study support some stylized facts about innovational interdependencies in general-purpose technologies: a closely knitted set of industries have provided positive and negative driving forces for the development of ICT innovations. The historical evolution of the GPT surrounding microelectronics can in this perspective be described as a sequence of development blocks. |
| Keywords: | ICT; General-Purpose Technologies; Innovation Biographies; Network Analysis; Development Blocks |
| JEL: | L16 N14 O30 |
| Date: | 2017–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0159&r=his |
| By: | Raphaël Franck; Oded Galor |
| Abstract: | This research explores the long-run effect of industrialization on the process of development. In contrast to conventional wisdom that views industrial development as a catalyst for economic growth, the study establishes that while the adoption of industrial technology was conducive to economic development in the short-run, it has had a detrimental effect on standards of living in the long-run. Exploiting exogenous geographic and climatic sources of regional variation in the diffusion and adoption of steam engines during the French industrial revolution, the research establishes that regions in which industrialization was more intensive experienced an increase in literacy rates more swiftly and generated higher income per capita in the subsequent decades. Nevertheless, intensive industrialization has had an adverse effect on income per capita, employment and equality by the turn of the 21st century. This adverse effect reflects neither higher unionization and wage rates nor trade protection, but rather underinvestment in human capital and lower employment in skilled-intensive occupations. These findings suggest that the characteristics that permitted the onset of industrialization, rather than the adoption of industrial technology per se, have been the source of prosperity among the currently developed economies that experienced an early industrialization. Thus, developing economies may benefit from the allocation of resources towards human capital formation rather than towards the promotion of industrial development. |
| JEL: | N33 N34 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23701&r=his |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford); Guan, Hanhui (Peking University); Li, David Daokui (Tsinghua University) |
| Abstract: | Chinese GDP per capita fluctuated at a high level during the Northern Song and Ming dynasties before trending downwards during the Qing dynasty. China led the world in living standards during the Northern Song dynasty, but had fallen behind Italy by 1300. At this stage, it is possible that parts of China were still on a par with the richest parts of Europe, but by 1750 the gap was too large to be bridged by regional variation within China and the Great Divergence had already begun before the Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | GDP Per Capita; Economic Growth; Great Divergence; China; Europe JEL Classification: E100, N350, O100 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:324&r=his |
| By: | Bichler, Shimshon; Nitzan, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | FROM THE ARTICLE: 'During the late 1980s, we printed a series of working papers, offering a new approach to the political economy of Israel and wars in the Middle East. Our approach in these papers rested on three new concepts. It started by identifying the Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition – an alliance of armament firms, oil companies and financial institutions based mostly in the United States – whose interests, we posited, converged in the Middle East. It continued by arguing that the interests of this coalition were best measured by its differential accumulation – i.e., by its performance relative to other large firms. And it concluded by showing that variations in differential accumulation predicted subsequent Middle East energy conflicts (our term). At the time, the papers seemed unpublishable. They were politically unaligned (neither neoclassical nor Marxist). They were non-disciplinary (belonging to neither economics nor politics – or any other social science, for that matter). And they were written in non-academic language (i.e., simply, clearly and to the point). But they made a scientific prediction: the Middle East, they argued, was ripe for another round of military hostilities and oil crisis. And when the 1990-91 Gulf War broke out, their theoretical frame-work suddenly sounded very relevant’. |
| Keywords: | arms,capital as power,differential accumulation,dominant capital,Israel,Middle East,energy conflicts,stagflation |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:capwps:201704&r=his |
| By: | Dupraz, Yannick (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | I use the partition of Cameroon between France and the UK after WWI and its reunification after independence to investigate colonial legacies in education. Using border discontinuity analysis, I find that Cameroonians born in the 1970s are 9 percentage points more likely to have completed high school if they were born in the former British part. French and British Cameroon started diverging after partition, but the British advantage disappeared when the French increased education expenditure in the 1950s. The resurgence of a British advantage is explained by the French legacy of high repetition rates and their detrimental effect on dropout. |
| Keywords: | Africa, colonization, education, persistence, border discontinuity.JEL Classification: N37, I25, H52, O43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:333&r=his |
| By: | Mercedes Campi; Marco Due\~nas |
| Abstract: | The twentieth century was a period of outstanding economic growth together with an unequal income distribution. This paper analyses the international distribution of growth rates and its dynamics during the twentieth century. We show that the whole century is characterized by a high heterogeneity in the distribution of GDP per capita growth rates, which is reflected in different shapes and a persistent asymmetry of the distributions at the regional level and for countries of different development levels. We find that in the context of the global conflicts that characterized the first half of the twentieth century and involved mainly large economies, the well-known negative scale relation between volatility and size of countries is not significant. After the year 1956, a redistribution of volatility leads to a significant negative scale-relation, which has been recently considered as a robust feature of the evolution of economic organizations. Our results contribute with more empirical facts that call the attention to traditional macroeconomic theories to better explain the underlying complexity of the growth process and sheds light on its historical evolution. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1708.06792&r=his |
| By: | J. Peter Neary; Cormac Ó Gráda |
| Abstract: | Brendan M. Walsh [1940-2016] was a key figure in the renaissance of Irish economics. A brilliant and highly productive applied economist, his work was wide-ranging and hugely influential. This article reviews Walsh’s published research over a half a century. |
| Keywords: | Ireland; Economics; Walsh, Brendan M. |
| JEL: | A10 J10 J20 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201709&r=his |
| By: | Bassino, Jean-Pascal (IAO, ENS de Lyon); Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford); Fukao, Kyoji (Hitotsubashi University); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Takashima, Masanori (Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract: | Japanese GDP per capita grew at an annual rate of 0.08 per cent between 730 and 1874, but the growth was episodic, with the increase in per capita income concentrated in two periods, 1450-1600 and after 1721, interspersed with periods of stable per capita income. There is a similarity here with the growth pattern of Britain. The first countries to achieve modern economic growth at opposite ends of Eurasia thus shared the experience of an early end to growth reversals. However, Japan started at a lower level than Britain and grew more slowly until the Meiji Restoration. |
| Keywords: | Japan, Great Divergence, GDP per capita, growth reversals, Britain JEL Classification: : N10, N30, N35, O10, O57 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:325&r=his |
| By: | Maty Konte; Elise Wong Sonne; Johannes W. Fedderke |
| Abstract: | Most of the widely used indicators of institutions have been criticised for the lack of objectivity in their construction and for their coverage of short time periods, especially for African countries. New objective indicators of de jure property rights, de jure political and civil rights, and de facto political instability over a long time horizon have been recently launched for a number of former African British colonies, using the leximetrics method. This paper proposes comparable indicators of institutions for a former African French colony, Senegal. De jure indicators are coded based on written regulations, laws and constitutions for the period 1819-2010. Our de facto measure of political instability is based on reported events collected from different sources. Data from such a long time horizon provide an opportunity to understand the Senegal's path of development from the early time of the colonisation until today. |
| Keywords: | Leximetrics, Property rights, Political and civil rights, Political instability |
| JEL: | K10 N47 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:696&r=his |
| By: | Christoph Eder; Martin Halla |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the historical origins of the cultural norm regarding illegitimacy (formerly known as bastardy). We test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural production structures influenced the historical illegitimacy ratio, and have had a lasting effect until today. Based on data from the Austro-Hungarian Empire and modern Austria, we show that regions that focused on animal husbandry (as compared to crop farming) had significantly higher illegitimacy ratios in the past, and female descendants of these societies are still more likely to approve illegitimacy and give birth outside of marriage today. To establish causality, we exploit, within an IV approach, variation in the local agricultural suitability, which determined the historical dominance of animal husbandry. Since differences in the agricultural production structure are completely obsolete in today's economy, we suggest interpreting the persistence in revealed and stated preferences as a cultural norm. Complementary evidence from an `epidemiological approach' suggests that this norm is passed down through generations, and the family is the most important transmission channel. Our findings point to a more general phenomenon that cultural norms can be shaped by economic conditions, and may persist, even if economic conditions become irrelevant. |
| Keywords: | Cultural norms, persistence, animal husbandry, illegitimacy |
| JEL: | Z1 A13 J12 J13 J43 N33 |
| Date: | 2017–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2017-14&r=his |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen (Nuffield College, Oxford); Wallis, John (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | Using annual data from the thirteenth century to the present, we show that improved long run economic performance has occurred primarily through a decline in the rate and frequency of shrinking, rather than through an increase in the rate of growing. Indeed, as economic performance has improved over time, the short run rate of growing has typically declined rather than increased. Most analysis of the process of economic development has hitherto focused on increasing the rate of growing. Here, we focus on understanding the forces making for a reduction in the rate of shrinking, drawing a distinction between proximate and ultimate factors. The main proximate factors considered are (1) structural change (2) technological change (3) demographic change and (4) the changing incidence of warfare. We conclude with a consideration of institutional change as the key ultimate factor behind the reduction in shrinking. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:323&r=his |
| By: | Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda |
| Abstract: | Against the consensus that sailing ship technology was stagnant during the early Industrial Revolution, we find striking improvements in safety at sea. Between 1760 and 1825, the risk of being wrecked for Atlantic shipping fell by one third, and of foundering by two thirds, reflecting improvements in seaworthiness and navigation respectively. Seaworthiness improved through replacing the traditional stepped deck ship with stronger flushed decked ones derived from Indian designs, and the increasing use of iron reinforcement. Improved navigation owed little to precise longitude estimation and stemmed mostly from accurate charts and instruments, and accessible manuals of navigational technique. |
| Keywords: | Technological progress; Shipping |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201711&r=his |
| By: | Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda |
| Abstract: | We measure technological progress in oceanic shipping directly by using a large database of daily log entries from ships of the British and Dutch East India Companies and Navies to estimate daily sailing speed in different wind conditions from 1750 to 1850. Against the consensus among economic (but not maritime) historians that the technology of sailing shipswas static during this time, we find that average sailing speeds of British ships in moderate to strong winds rose by nearly a third. Driving this steady progress seems to be continuous evolution of sails and rigging, and improved hulls that allowed a greater area of sail to be set safely in a given wind. By contrast, looking at every voyage between the Netherlands and East Indies undertaken by the Dutch East India Company from 1595 to 1795, we find that journey time fell only by 10 per cent, with no improvement in the heavy mortality, averaging six per cent per voyage, of those aboard. |
| Keywords: | Technological progress; Shipping |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201710&r=his |
| By: | Fenske, James (Harrison, Mark); Kala, Namrata (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We collect data on grain and salt prices, as well as language, for more than 200 South Asian markets in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Conditional on a rich set of controls and fixed effects, we find that linguistically distant markets are less integrated as measured by the degree of price correlation. While linguistically distant markets exhibit greater genetic distance, greater differences in literacy, and fewer railway connections, these factors are not sufficient statistics for the negative correlation between linguistic distance and market integration. Our results indicate that a one standard deviation increase in linguistic distance predicts a reduction in the price correlation between two markets of 0.121 standard deviations for wheat, 0.167 standard deviations for salt, and 0.088 standard deviations for rice. These differences are substantial relative to other factors such as physical distance that hinder market integration. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:331&r=his |
| By: | Alejandro Barrera Escobar; Juan Felipe Castellanos Martínez; Oscar Andrés Jiménez Orozco; Sandra Milena Gómez Vallejo |
| Abstract: | Este nuevo número de la Serie Economía y Empresa de la Cámara de Comercio de Manizales por Caldas pretendió estudiar la estructura económica de largo plazo en la economía de Manizales - Villamaría y con esto establecer si la economía local se ha desindustrializado o terciarizado en los últimos años y establecer si dicha terciarización sigue patrones de tipo espurio o genuino, según como éstos se definen en la literatura económica. Para esto se construyeron series de datos correspondientes a 40 años, para el período 1975-2015 en variables como el número de empresas (comerciantes persona natural y jurídica) registradas en la Cámara de Comercio de Manizales por Caldas, el número de ocupados y otros indicadores laborales como participación, ocupación y desempleo y el Producto Departamental Bruto de Caldas, total y por habitante. Para esto se tomaron los microdatos del Registro Mercantil, las Encuestas de Hogares del DANE y las Cuentas Nacionales Departamentales, a las cuales se les aplicaron distintas técnicas de empalme debido a los cambios metodológicos que han tenido estas investigaciones en distintos momentos. Este estudio se presenta en cuatro capítulos. En el primero se revisan los conceptos de tercerización, terciarización y desindustrialización (absoluta y relativa), como conceptos claves para el análisis posterior. En el segundo se registran antecedentes bibliográficos y referencias a estudios previos realizados en Colombia con este enfoque conceptual y analítico. En el tercer capítulo se analiza el comportamiento de largo plazo de las variables mencionadas para la economía local y se muestra cómo ha sido el proceso de transformación productiva, crecimiento y reasignación del factor trabajo en la economía local. Finalmente, en el cuarto capítulo se analiza en profundidad la ocupación después del año 2000, bajo la pregunta de si la tercerización de la economía local ha sido de tipo genuino o espurio. |
| Keywords: | Crecimiento Económico, Desarrollo Económico, Estructura Productiva, Tercerización, Desindustrialización, Geografía Económica |
| Date: | 2017–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000512:015703&r=his |
| By: | Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:jseres:2017cj289&r=his |
| By: | Gunes, Cihan |
| Abstract: | In the Turkish economy between 1960 and 1980, is a period in which import substitution industrialization and the planned economy policy is implemented. In this period, trade union organization was allowed, various laws were enacted and applied. In this period, where various trade unions are established, the trade union activities of bankers who can be defined as white-collar workers are evaluated. It would be insufficient to examine the banking sector of this period without including the labor force that appears to be a social, economic and political power. For this reason, in this essay, During this period, the role of the labor force in the banking sector, trade union activities and the nature of these activities have been investigated. |
| Keywords: | Banking, Union, Strike, Lockout |
| JEL: | N8 |
| Date: | 2017–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80917&r=his |
| By: | Qiang Ji (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences and School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China); Bing-Yue Liu (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China); Juncal Cunado (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the risk spillover effect between the US stock market and the remaining G7 stock markets by measuring the conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) using time-varying copula models with Markov switching and data that covers more than 100 years. The main results suggest that the dependence structure varies with time and has distinct high and low dependence regimes. Our findings verify the existence of risk spillover between the US stock market and the remaining G7 stock markets. Furthermore, the results imply the following: 1) abnormal spikes of dynamic CoVaR were induced by well-known historical economic shocks; 2) The value of upside risk spillover is significantly larger than the downside risk spillover and 3) The magnitudes of risk spillover from the remaining G7 countries to the US are significantly larger than that from the US to these countries. |
| Keywords: | Time-varying copula, Markov switching, CoVaR, risk spillover, G7 stock markets |
| JEL: | C21 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201759&r=his |
| By: | Richard Akresh; Sonia Bhalotra; Marinella Leone; Una O. Osili |
| Abstract: | We analyze long-term impacts of the 1967-1970 Nigerian Civil War, providing the first evidence of intergenerational impacts. Women exposed to the war in their growing years exhibit reduced adult stature, increased likelihood of being overweight, earlier age at first birth, and lower educational attainment. Exposure to a primary education program mitigates impacts of war exposure on education. War exposed men marry later and have fewer children. War exposure of mothers (but not fathers) has adverse impacts on child growth, survival, and education. Impacts vary with age of exposure. For mother and child health, the largest impacts stem from adolescent exposure. |
| JEL: | I12 I25 J13 O12 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23721&r=his |
| By: | Svetlana Klimova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The main subject of this article is devited of analyses a problem of Good and Evil in the teaching of Leo Tolstoy and Hannah Arendt. each in his epoch and by a similar way, got to the back of contradictions between “reasonableness”, “morality” and a human behavior in the state and society though they approached them from the opposing points of view. The approach of Tolstoy was Christian-ethical while that of Arendt was philosophic-political. Their congeniality is attributed to the fact that the ethics of Tolstoy and the policy of Arendt are built on a common theoretical ground, i.e. the philosophical anthropology of Kant. In the “man-state” opposition, Tolstoy revealed the ethical prerequisites to creation of the totalitarian ideology, and Arendt showed up the historical, political and inhuman essence of the totalitarianism phenomenon as such. |
| Keywords: | Good, Evil, radical and banality evil, a philosophical anthropology of Kant , consciousness, the mass society and the mass man, “Eichmann as man” and “Eichmann as Nazi official,” independent thinking |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:150/hum/2017&r=his |
| By: | Werner Troesken; Randall Walsh |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and tests a simple model to explain the origins of municipal segregation ordinances. Passed by cities between 1909 and 1917, these ordinances prohibited members of the majority racial group on a given city block from selling or renting property to members of another racial group. Our results suggest that prior to these laws cities had created and sustained residential segregation through private norms and vigilante activity. Only when these private arrangements began to break down during the early 1900s did whites start lobbying municipal governments for segregation ordinances. |
| JEL: | H1 K11 N32 N92 R14 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23691&r=his |
| By: | Harrison, Mark (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | A new estimate of the Soviet population loss in World War II, by Russian historian Igor’ Ivlev, is 42 million. This is 15-16 million more than the previous estimate of 26-27 million. The latter, by Russian demographers Andreev, Darskii, and Khar’kova, has been widely accepted for a quarter of a century. I examine the new estimate, show its place in the Soviet demographic accounts side by side with the old one, contrast their sources and methods, and find that the new figure is without foundation. The previous figure stands. On existing knowledge, the Soviet war dead were 26-27 million. |
| Keywords: | population, Soviet Union, war losses, World War II JEL Classification: J11, N44 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:332&r=his |
| By: | Bauernschuster, Stefan (University of Passau); Driva, Anastasia (LMU Munich); Hornung, Erik (University of Bayreuth) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact on mortality of the world’s first compulsory health insurance, established by Otto von Bismarck, Chancellor of the German Empire, in 1884. Employing a multi-layered empirical setup, we draw on international comparisons and difference-in-differences strategies using Prussian administrative panel data to exploit differences in eligibility for insurance across occupations. All approaches yield a consistent pattern suggesting that Bismarck’s Health Insurance generated a significant mortality reduction. The results are largely driven by a decline of deaths from infectious diseases. We present prima facie evidence that diffusion of new hygiene knowledge through physicians was an important channel.Keywords: health insurance, mortality, demographic transition, Prussia JEL Classification: : I13, I18, N33, J11 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:336&r=his |
| By: | Filip Novokmet; Thomas Piketty; Gabriel Zucman |
| Abstract: | This paper combines national accounts, survey, wealth and fiscal data (including recently released tax data on high-income taxpayers) in order to provide consistent series on the accumulation and distribution of income and wealth in Russia from the Soviet period until the present day. We find that official survey-based measures vastly under-estimate the rise of inequality since 1990. According to our benchmark estimates, top income shares are now similar to (or higher than) the levels observed in the United States. We also find that inequality has increased substantially more in Russia than in China and other ex-communist countries in Eastern Europe. We relate this finding to the specific transition strategy followed in Russia. According to our benchmark estimates, the wealth held offshore by rich Russians is about three times larger than official net foreign reserves, and is comparable in magnitude to total household financial assets held in Russia. |
| JEL: | D31 E01 E21 O52 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23712&r=his |
| By: | Daniel Aaronson; Rajeev Dehejia; Andrew Jordan; Cristian Pop-Eleches; Cyrus Samii; Karl Schulze |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the evolving impact of childbearing on the work activity of mothers. Based on a compiled dataset of 441 censuses and surveys between 1787 and 2015, representing 103 countries and 48.4 million mothers, we document three main findings: (1) the effect of fertility on labor supply is small and typically indistinguishable from zero at low levels of development and economically large and negative at higher levels of development; (2) this negative gradient is remarkably consistent across histories of currently developed countries and contemporary cross-sections of countries; and (3) the results are strikingly robust to identification strategies, model specification, data construction, and rescaling. We explain our results within a standard labor-leisure model and attribute the negative labor supply gradient to changes in the sectoral and occupational structure of female jobs as countries develop. |
| JEL: | J13 J22 N30 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23717&r=his |
| By: | Deepankar Basu (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts - Amherst) |
| Abstract: | Karl Marx’s magnum opus, Das Kapital, presents an analysis of the long run dynamics of a mature capitalist economy. The analysis is conducted at two primary levels of abstraction – ‘capital in general’ (where competition between individual capitals is abstracted from) and ‘many capitals’ (where the phenomenon of competition between individual capitals is introduced) – and the presentation is organized into three volumes. In terms of structure, the analysis in the first two volumes is located at the level of ‘capital in general’, and the analysis in the third volume is located at the level of ‘many capitals’. In terms of content, the first volume analyses the production and accumulation of surplus value, the second volume investigates the problems of realization of surplus value, and the third volume analyses the mechanisms that lead to the distribution of surplus value into income streams of different fractions of the ruling class – as profit of enterprise, commercial profit, interest and rent (and monopoly profit more generally). The three volumes together give a comprehensive picture of the workings of a mature capitalist economy and highlights its long run, contradictory tendencies. |
| Keywords: | value, surplus value, capital, reproduction schemes, prices of production, rent, interest, commercial profit |
| JEL: | B14 B24 B51 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2017-12&r=his |
| By: | Asad Islam; Ratul Mahanta |
| Abstract: | We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment to examine the long-term effects of riots in Assam in India on a range of economic and behavioural outcomes. We find that individuals who live in the villages that have been heavily and moderately affected by riots are more trustworthy, more likely to be competitive and have higher levels of self-confidence under competitive situations. They exhibit more anti-social preferences but are less likely to be dishonest than individuals in the unaffected areas. The estimates are stronger and more often statistically significant when considering heavily affected areas than moderately affected areas - suggesting stronger influence on those who were directly exposed to or experienced the riots. Using survey measures, we observe that individuals in areas that were heavily exposed to riots have higher levels of trust, higher tendency toward altruism, and lower memory capacity. |
| Keywords: | riot, Assam, risk, trust, field experiments |
| JEL: | C91 C93 D74 D81 O12 |
| Date: | 2017–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qut:qubewp:wp052&r=his |
| By: | Katolik, Aleksandra (University of Warwick); Oswald, Andrew J. (University of Warwick and IZA) |
| Abstract: | The antidepressant pill is an important modern commodity. Its growing role in the world has been largely ignored by researchers in economics departments and business schools. Scholars may be unaware how many citizens and employees now take these pills. Here we review some of the social-science literature on the topic. We discuss research on the impact of advertising upon antidepressant consumption, the link between antidepressants and the human ‘midlife crisis’, and evidence on how antidepressants are connected to crime, suicide, and financial hardship. We argue that antidepressants will eventually have to be modelled as a new form of consumption that lies in the currently grey area between medicines and consumer goods. This topic demands scholarly and societal attention. |
| Keywords: | Well-being; depression; medications; happiness. JEL Classification: I1; I120; I3; I310 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:338&r=his |
| By: | Ma, Debin (London School of Economics); Rubin, Jared (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | Tax extraction in Qing China was low relative to Western Europe. It is not obvious why: China was much more absolutist and had stronger rights over property and people. Why did the Chinese not convert their absolute power into revenue? We propose a model, supported by historical evidence, which suggests that if) the center could not ask its tax collecting agents to levy high taxes because it would incentivize agents to overtax the peasantry; ii) the center could not pay agents high wages in return for high taxes because the center had no mechanism to commit to refrain from confiscating the agent’s resources in times of crisis. A solution to this problem was to offer agents a low wage and ask for low taxes while allowing agents to take extra, unmonitored taxes from the peasantry. This solution only worked because of China’s weak administrative capacity due its size and poor monitoring technology. This analysis suggests that low investment in administrative capacity can be an optimal solution for an absolutist ruler since it substitutes for a credible commitment to refrain from confiscation. Our study carries implications for state capacity beyond Imperial China. |
| Keywords: | administrative capacity, fiscal capacity, state capacity, principal-agent problem, monitoring, credible commitment, absolutism, limited government, taxation, China, Europe, Qing Empire JEL Classification: N45, N43, H20, P48, P51 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:320&r=his |
| By: | David H. Bernstein (University of Miami); Christopher F. Parmeter (University of Miami) |
| Abstract: | We replicate the findings of two in uential studies on returns to scale in the electricity generation market in the United States. The main results are also contrasted using local linear nonparametric regression, a technique robust to functional form assumptions. While the quantitative findings differ somewhat regarding the magnitude of returns to scale, we find that there is a substantial shift in returns to scale across the electricity generation market of 1955 to that of 1970. |
| Keywords: | System Estimation, Shepard's Lemma, Seemingly Unrelated Regression, Nonparametric. Publication Status: Submitted |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2017–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mia:wpaper:2017-08&r=his |