nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒06‒14
twenty papers chosen by
  1. How Friedman and Schwartz became monetarists By James R. Lothian; George S. Tavlas
  2. The Role of Banks in Economic Development in the Former SFR Yugoslavia By Predrag Četković
  3. Accounting for accounting history: An exploratory study through topic modeling approach By Paolo Ferri; Maria Lusiani; Luca Pareschi
  4. The Cultural Diffusion of the Fertility Transition: Evidence from Internal Migration in 19th Century France By Daudin, Guillaume; Franck, Raphaël; Rapoport, Hillel
  5. Impulsando la desigualdad «de mercado»: el vínculo elite-Estado en Chile en el siglo XX By Javier Rodríguez Weber
  6. History Regimes in High School World History Textbooks in Contemporary Japan By Naoki Odanaka
  7. Lessons for the euro from early US monetary and financial history By Jeffry Frieden
  8. Media coverage and stock returns on the London Stock Exchange, 1825-70 By Turner, John D.; Ye, Qing; Walker, Clive B.
  9. Double trouble: modern misreadings of Cantillon By Roy Grieve
  10. Back to the long-run: the “Development Operation” as a supply-side policy by the Italian Industrial Association during the Seventies By Dafano, Alessandro
  11. Social contract vs. invisible hand: Agreeing to solve social dilemmas By Vanberg, Viktor J.
  12. What Shakespeare Says About Sending Our Children Off to College By Jeffrey R. Wilson
  13. THE FIRST KEYNESIAN REACTIONS TO LUCAS’S MACROECONOMICS OF EQUILIBRIUM By DANILO FREITAS RAMALHO DA SILVA
  14. FUNDING POLICY RESEARCH UNDER “DISTASTEFUL REGIMES”: THE FORD FOUNDATION AND THE SOCIAL SCIENCES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF BRASÍLIA By CARLOS EDUARDO SUPRINYAK; RAMON GARCIA FERNANDEZ
  15. Public Debt Episodes in Irish Economic History 1950-2015 By Kenny, Sean
  16. Endogenous (In)Formal Institutions. By Guerriero, Carmine; Boranbay, Serra
  17. STRIKE DURATION AFTER COLLECTIVE BARGAINING LEGISLATION CHANGES: A REAPPRAISAL OF THE 1988 BRAZILIAN NEW FEDERAL CONSTITUTION WITH BETTER MICRO DATA By ARICIERI DEVIDÉ JÚNIOR; JOSÉ RAIMUNDO CARVALHO
  18. PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TESTS OF THE REINHART-ROGOFF HYPOTHESIS By OCTAVIO AUGUSTO FONTES TOURINHO; RAFAEL SANGOI
  19. RENTABILIDADE DO TRABALHO ESCRAVO NO RIO GRANDE DO SUL NO SÉCULO XIX By DENISE MANFREDINI; SERGIO MARLEY MODESTO MONTEIRO
  20. DA FALÊNCIA À LIDERANÇA: A TRAJETÓRIA DO GRUPO VOTORANTIM NO SETOR TÊXTIL PAULISTA (1918-1939) By GUSTAVO PEREIRA DA SILVA; ARMANDO JOÃO DALLA COSTA
  1. By: James R. Lothian (Fordham University); George S. Tavlas (Bank of Greece and University of Leicester)
    Abstract: During the late-1940s and the early-1950s Milton Friedman favored a rule under which fiscal policy would be used to generate changes in the money supply with the aim of stabilizing output at full employment. He believed that the economy is inherently unstable because of endogenous movements in money supply under a fractional-reserve banking system. In her work, Anna Schwartz downplayed the role of monetary factors in business cycles and the role of monetary policy as a stabilization tool. We show how the joint work of Friedman and Schwartz from 1948 to 1958 led Friedman to view money as the “primary mover” of the business cycle and underpinned his shift to a rule based on money growth so that discretionary monetary policy would not act as a source of destabilizing shocks. The decisive factor in the evolution of Friedman’s thinking was the empirical confirmation that the Great Depression had been both initiated and deepened by the Fed. The largely neglected influence of Clark Warburton on the evolution of Friedman’s thinking provides a missing -- but crucial -- link in explaining Friedman’s recognition of the role of monetary factors in the Great Depression and of the Fed’s ability to offset the destabilizing effects produced by shifts from deposits into currency under a fractional-reserve banking system.
    Keywords: B22; E52
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:207&r=his
  2. By: Predrag Četković
    Abstract: The economic model of the former SFR Yugoslavia was subject to frequent institutional changes which were oriented towards the real economy as well as the banking sector. The country experimented with a wide range of institutions in the financial sector which had different implications for the autonomy of banks. The industrialization period from the end of the second world war until the end of the 1970s was marked by a sharp expansion of bank credits to enterprises. However, the Yugoslav banks relied strongly on foreign capital inflows for funding their credit activities which contributed to the massive increase in foreign debt of Yugoslavia during the 1970s. The dependence of the Yugoslav economy on foreign funds is a feature which is still very much present in the Yugoslav successor countries.
    Date: 2015–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:bpaper:114&r=his
  3. By: Paolo Ferri (College of Business, RMIT University); Maria Lusiani (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Luca Pareschi (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the growing history of accounting history by analysing the contents of all papers published in Accounting History, one among the leading journals of the field, through a recent and promising analytical technique called Topic Modeling. Based on literature, we know what accounting history is about, but we know less how the accounting history field has evolved. By adopting Topic Modeling, an automated procedure for coding the content of corpus of text based on Bayesian statistic, the paper complements prior assessments of the accounting history literature by providing accurate measures about the relative prevalence of research areas and their evolution over time. The analysis highlights three sets of topics not uncovered by previous categorizations. In particular, the ÔRegulationÕ topic, that refers to international accounting standards and auditing regulation, appears to be overlooked by previous reviews. In terms of dynamics we find that the ÔTechnical core of accountingÕ decreased in importance overtime in favour of more variegated and fragmented foci of research: this finding may substantiate the claimed shift from a conception of accounting as a technical practice to the one of accounting as a social practice, that is the transition from the so called ÔtraditionalÕ to ÔnewÕ accounting history. Moreover, we see a pluralisation in the range of issues that are under the lenses of accounting historians. Finally, our analysis suggests that the way in which accounting history is presented or Ôtalked aboutÕ has not changed much in the last 20 years.
    Keywords: Accounting history, Topic Modeling, Literature review, Journal
    JEL: M40 M48 H83
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:116&r=his
  4. By: Daudin, Guillaume (Université Paris-Dauphine); Franck, Raphaël (Bar-Ilan University); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: France experienced the demographic transition before richer and more educated countries. This paper offers a novel explanation for this puzzle that emphasizes the diffusion of culture and information through internal migration. It tests how migration affected fertility by building a decennial bilateral migration matrix between French regions for 1861-1911. The identification strategy uses exogenous variation in transportation costs resulting from the construction of railways. The results suggest the convergence towards low birth rates can be explained by the diffusion of low-fertility norms by migrants, especially by migrants to and from Paris.
    Keywords: fertility, France, demographic transition, migration
    JEL: J13 N33 O15
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9945&r=his
  5. By: Javier Rodríguez Weber (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: El presente texto pretende ser un aporte al esfuerzo de reorientar el análisis de la distribución del ingreso desde un abordaje centrado en los mercados hacia otro que enfatice el rol de la economía política de la desigualdad. Apelando a nueva evidencia sobre la evolución histórica de la desigualdad de ingreso en Chile, en el mismo se comparan los dos episodios de incremento en la desigualdad en los ingresos de mercado (market income) que se produjeron en ese país durante el siglo XX (1903/1913 y 1973/1986). Se muestra que, si bien los factores de mercado jugaron un papel, el rápido y radical incremento de la desigualdad que se produjo en ambos períodos fue consecuencia de la forma histórica en que se resolvió el conflicto distributivo entre distintos sectores de la sociedad. Fue determinante, en particular, la capacidad de la elite de influir en el gobierno del Estado, de modo que éste volcara todo su peso normativo y coercitivo en su favor.
    Keywords: desigualdad, Chile, ingreso de mercado, instituciones, economía política
    JEL: D31 N36 O15
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:doctra:45&r=his
  6. By: Naoki Odanaka
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tergaa:350&r=his
  7. By: Jeffry Frieden
    Abstract: Watch Jeffry Frieden's lecture delivered at Bruegel on 25 May 2016. Europe’s central goal for several decades has been to create an economic union that can provide monetary and financial stability. This goal is often compared to the long-standing monetary union that is the United States. Easy celebration of the successful American union ignores the fact that it took an extremely long time to accomplish. In fact, the creation and completion of the US monetary and financial union was a long, laborious, and politically conflictual process.
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:esslec:14654&r=his
  8. By: Turner, John D.; Ye, Qing; Walker, Clive B.
    Abstract: News media plays an important role in modern financial markets. In this paper, we analyse the role played by the news media in an historical financial market. Using The Times's coverage of companies listed on the London stock market between 1825 and 1870, we examine the determinants of media coverage in this era and whether there was a media discount. Our main finding is that a media discount only manifests itself after the mid-1840s and that the introduction of arm's-length ownership along with markedly increased market participation was the main reason for the emergence of this discount.
    Keywords: media,financial press,historical stock markets,advertising
    JEL: G12 N23
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201602&r=his
  9. By: Roy Grieve (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: Although the 18th century Franco-Irish financier Richard Cantillon is universally esteemed as an outstanding pioneer of economic analysis, his work is not immune to present-day misunderstanding. This paper identifies two current misreadings both relating to his concept of “intrinsic value.†Both need clearing-up. (1) Anthony Brewer (1992) claimed to find a fatal flaw in Cantillon’s theory of value. The present author (1993) demurred. That objection has not been taken up (or dismissed) in subsequent discussion of Cantillon’s work. We therefore have unfinished business. (2) A second issue has emerged. Modern “Austrian†commentators (who express great admiration for Cantillon) are promoting a seriously erroneous misinterpretation of his theory of value. We think it is time both to put forward, against Brewer’s allegation, a stronger defence of Cantillon’s theory, and also to make the point that Cantillon’s conception is fundamentally different from how (some) “Austrian†admirers apparently see it.
    Keywords: intrinsic value, distribution and value, "Austrian" theory, opportunity cost
    JEL: B11 B2 B31 B51
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:1607&r=his
  10. By: Dafano, Alessandro
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to stress the proposal made by the Italian Industrial Association against the stagflation during the Seventies, labeled “Development Operation”, which tried to give Italy a long-run growth path, through a strong reduction of public debt, boosting the supply-side in order to gain more productive independence; all of this in close connection with the European Community framework and in line with IMF/OECD directives. Moreover, this policy statement provided for a synthesis of different schools and joined the crowding-out debate occurring at that time in Italy.
    Keywords: supply-side, Guido Carli, economic planning, crowding-out, Italian economists, oil shock.
    JEL: B22 B31 E65 N14
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71591&r=his
  11. By: Vanberg, Viktor J.
    Abstract: [Introduction ...] The purpose of this essay is to take a closer look at the relation between the invisible hand paradigm that is at the heart of economists’ theoretical outlook at markets and the social contract paradigm. In support of the above-quoted claim that the contractarian paradigm can “provide us with the ‘bridge’ between the individual-choice calculus and group decisions,” I shall seek to show that this paradigm, with its individualistic approach to organized collective action, provides indeed the fitting complement to the invisible hand paradigm as a theory of spontaneous social order, paradigmatically exemplified by the order of the market. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 looks at the principal tenets of the social contract tradition. Section 3 reviews the 18th century origins of the “invisible hand” paradigm as the theoretical core of the economics tradition. Section 4 examines the limits of invisible hand accounts, specifically with regard to the problems posed by social dilemmas. Section 5 deals with the modern revival of social contract theory. Section 6 looks specifically at the contractarian constitutionalism of James Buchanan, the economist among the “new contractarians.” The concluding section relates the contrast between the invisible hand paradigm and social contract theory to the distinction between the “two kinds of order,” spontaneous orders and corporate orders, that plays a central role in F.A. Hayek’s work.
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:1604&r=his
  12. By: Jeffrey R. Wilson
    Abstract: Four hundred years after his death, the Bard of Avon provides advice to students embarking on the journey through college.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:402071&r=his
  13. By: DANILO FREITAS RAMALHO DA SILVA
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2015:007&r=his
  14. By: CARLOS EDUARDO SUPRINYAK; RAMON GARCIA FERNANDEZ
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2015:013&r=his
  15. By: Kenny, Sean (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: In this paper I study the public debt dynamics of three episodes (the crises of the 1950s, the 1980s and 2010-15) in Ireland’s modern economic history. By using traditional debt dynamic decomposition formulae, I measure the components which contributed most to public debt ratio reduction following previous high debt episodes. I also employ the case of Sweden for comparative purposes, in how it emerged from the increase in public debt in the aftermath of its banking crisis 1991-1993. The key findings which emerge are 1) the reduction of the public ratio following the 1980s episode was predominantly driven by cumulative primary surpluses, though a favourable growth and interest rate differential emerged as the key determinant in the late 1990s. Additionally, public debt in the 1980s was considerably more difficult to service in terms of tax revenues and maturity structures than the current event. 2) Public debt continued to increase following the crisis of the 1950s due to higher interest rates and lower inflation, despite a recovery in growth and fiscal contraction. 3) In line with other research isolating the uniqueness of open economy debt reductions, I find that though Sweden (like Ireland) reduced public debt in an environment of strong international growth, it did so in a macroeconomic environment of higher interest rates and falling inflation, entirely through budget surplus accumulation.
    Keywords: Public Debt; Ireland; Public Debt Dynamics; Sweden; Crisis
    JEL: F34 H60 H63 H69 N34
    Date: 2016–05–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0145&r=his
  16. By: Guerriero, Carmine; Boranbay, Serra
    Abstract: Despite the huge evidence documenting the relevance of inclusive political institutions and a culture of cooperation, we still lack a framework that identifies their origins and interaction. In a model in which an elite and a citizenry try to cooperate in consumption risk-sharing and investment, we show that a rise in the investment value encourages the elite to introduce more inclusive political institutions to convince the citizenry that a sufficient part of the returns on joint investments will be shared. In addition, accumulation of culture rises with the severity of consumption risk if this is not too large and thus cheating is not too appealing. Finally, the citizenry may over-accumulate culture to credibly commit to cooperate in investment when its value falls and so inclusive political institutions are at risk. These predictions are consistent with the evolution of activity-specific geographic factors, monasticism, and political institutions in a panel of 90 European regions spanning the 1000-1600 period. Evidence from several identification strategies suggests that the relationships we uncover are causal.
    Keywords: Geography; Democracy; Culture; Development.
    JEL: H1 O1 Z1
    Date: 2012–07–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71028&r=his
  17. By: ARICIERI DEVIDÉ JÚNIOR; JOSÉ RAIMUNDO CARVALHO
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:231&r=his
  18. By: OCTAVIO AUGUSTO FONTES TOURINHO; RAFAEL SANGOI
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2015:085&r=his
  19. By: DENISE MANFREDINI; SERGIO MARLEY MODESTO MONTEIRO
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:020&r=his
  20. By: GUSTAVO PEREIRA DA SILVA; ARMANDO JOÃO DALLA COSTA
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2015:030&r=his
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