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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2015‒12‒20
thirty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Tirole, Jean (University of Toulouse) |
| Abstract: | I was born and raised in Troyes, a town located east of Paris and north of Burgundy. Troyes was the capital of Champagne in the middle ages; its fairs hosted trade between Northern Italian cities and Flanders among others; Troyes has accordingly preserved a rich cultural heritage. My father, who passed away in 1992, was an obstetrician/gynecologist; my mother, who still lives in Troyes, taught French, Latin and Greek in high school. My parents as well of some of my teachers taught me the value of knowledge. I have two sisters, Marie-Claude and Laurence. My youth was a pretty uneventful and happy one. |
| Keywords: | Market power; |
| JEL: | D40 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nobelp:2014_005&r=his |
| By: | O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj |
| Abstract: | The paper looks at the development of the secular stagnation thesis, in the context of the economic history of the time. It explores some 19th century antecedents of the thesis, before turning to its interwar development. Not only Alvin Hansen, but Keynes and Hicks were involved in the conversations that led to Hansen's eventual statement of the thesis that we are familiar with. The argument made sense in the context of the interwar period, but more so in Britain than the US. |
| Keywords: | Alvin Hansen; economic history; history of economic thought; Keynes; secular stagnation |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10974&r=his |
| By: | Guido Alfani; Luca Mocarelli; Donatella Strangio |
| Abstract: | This article provides a general chronology of Italian famines, incorporating earlier chronologies as well as recent research on preindustrial mortality crises and covering the whole period from circa 1250 to 1810. Hypotheses about the occurrence of famines are tested using the largest-existing database of time series of burials, covering northern Italy and part of central Italy, as well as a database of time series of wheat prices covering the whole of the Peninsula. The role played by food provisioning institutions is briefly detailed and a summary discussion of the causative factors of famines is provided. We argue that the majority of the most severe medieval and early modern famines happen when a situation of high demographic pressure on the available resources couples with periods of meteorological instability of the kind unfavorable to wheat crops, and the crisis is so widespread that institutions are unable to provide effective remedies. |
| Keywords: | Famines; famines chronology; hunger; mortality crises; preindustrial period; middle ages; early modern period; history; historical demography; malthusian traps; agrarian change; food provisioning; food security |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:don:donwpa:084&r=his |
| By: | Bakker, Gerben (London School of Economics); Crafts, Nicholas (University of Warwick); Woltjer, Pieter (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | We develop new aggregate and sectoral Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates for the United States between 1899 and 1941 through better coverage of sectors and better measured labor quality, and show TFP-growth was lower than previously thought, broadly based across sectors, strongly variant intertemporally, and consistent with many diverse sources of innovation. We then test and reject three prominent claims. First, the 1930s did not have the highest TFP-growth of the twentieth century. Second, TFP-growth was not predominantly caused by four leading sectors. Third, TFP-growth was not caused by a ‘yeast process’ originating in a dominant technology such as electricity. |
| Keywords: | Harberger diagram; mushrooms; productivity growth; total factor productivity; yeast JEL Classification: N11, N12, O47, O51 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:257&r=his |
| By: | Luis Rubén Pérez Pinzón |
| Abstract: | El ensayo demuestra que desde 1914 la producción agropecuaria de Colombia fue transformada con la importación del ganado cebú y la mezcla con las razas taurinas existentes. Esos cambios conllevaron a la sustitución, reducción y extinción de las razas “criollas” que dominaban los potreros y las ferias ganaderas de las provincias nororientales de Colombia hasta finales del siglo XIX. Situación comprobada desde las fuentes oficiales, las descripciones periodísticas, los análisis económicos y los testimonios de los ganaderos protagonistas de esas transformaciones. Finalmente se demuestra que la región ganadera del Socorro se constituyó en referente nacional al ser declarada y reconocida como “Primer centro cebuista del oriente de Colombia” y “Cuna del Brahman de Colombia”. |
| Keywords: | Colombia; ganadería; empresariado; brahman; cebú. |
| JEL: | R11 N96 |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:014149&r=his |
| By: | Bown, Chad P.; Irwin, Douglas |
| Abstract: | How high were import tariffs when GATT participants began negotiations to reduce them in 1947? Establishing this starting point is key to determining how successful the GATT has been in bringing down trade barriers. If the average tariff level was about 40 percent, as commonly reported, the implied early tariff reductions were substantial, but this number has never been verified. This paper examines the evidence on tariff levels in the late 1940s and early 1950s and finds that the average tariff level going into the first Geneva Round of 1947 was about 22 percent. We also find that tariffs fell by relatively more in the late 1940s and early 1950s for a core group of GATT participants (the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia) than they did for many other important countries, including the set of other (non-core) GATT participants. |
| Keywords: | GATT; tariffs; trade agreements; trade liberalization |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10979&r=his |
| By: | Rahlf, Thomas (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | Wie hoch? Wie groß? Wie viele? Mit welcher Dynamik? Wie haben sich Klima, Bevölkerung und Arbeit, wie Freizeit, Gesundheit und Sozialleistungen, wie Landwirtschaft oder Industrien entwickelt? „Deutschland in Daten“ liefert Zeitreihen zu zentralen Themenstellungen. Dieser Band präsentiert zu 22 Themen in über 1.000 Zeitreihen Daten für die Zeit seit dem 19. Jahrhundert und ordnet sie fachwissenschaftlich in die jeweiligen historischen Kontexte ein. Er bietet einen breit gefächerten und verlässlichen Einblick in die Historische Statistik von Deutschland über verschiedene Epochen und politische Systeme hinweg. |
| Abstract: | How much? How large? How many? Which dynamics? How have climate, population, labor and leisure, health and social benefits, agriculture or industries developed? "Germany in data" provides time series on 22 key topics, data for the last two centuries. It offers a broad and reliable insight into the Historical Statistics of Germany covering various epochs and political systems. |
| Keywords: | Historische Statistik,Zeitreihen |
| JEL: | N00 Y10 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:124185&r=his |
| By: | Tony Fahey (School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice and Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | This paper points to a sibsize revolution that occurred among children in lower status families in the United States in the closing decades of the twentieth century. It interprets that revolution as a source of social convergence in children’s family contexts that ran counter to trends towards social divergence caused by change in family structure and has implications for how we understand the impact of family change on social inequality. Using micro-data from the Census of Population and Current Population Survey, the paper presents new estimates of differentials in sibsize and family structure by race and maternal education in the United States for the period 1940-2012. The estimates suggest that as the share of lower status children living in mother-headed families rose in the 1970s and 1980s, their average sibsize declined. The paper discusses some substantive and methodological challenges for existing scholarship arising from these cross-cutting movements and points to questions for future research. |
| Keywords: | height, Family Patterns, Social Inequality, United States, sibsize, family structure, |
| Date: | 2015–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201523&r=his |
| By: | Guillermo Maya Muñoz |
| Abstract: | El economista alemán Friedrich List (1841:194-198) teórico de la economía política nacional recomendaba la industria a los países templados, pero se reservaba hacerlo para los países cálidos o tropicales, para quienes les señalaba el destino de ser productores de materias primas y alimentos para las metrópolis. Sin embargo, esto no quiere decir que las recomendaciones de List, en cuanto los países cálidos, se tomen de manera literal, sobre todo por parte de quienes vivimos en el Sur. |
| Keywords: | Friedrich List; Suramérica; Pensamiento Económico. |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:014141&r=his |
| By: | Maarten Lindeboom (VU University Amsterdam); Reyn van Ewijk (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz) |
| Abstract: | There is increasing evidence that circumstances very early in our lives, and particularly during pregnancy, can affect our health for the remainder of life. Studies that have looked at this often used extreme situations such as famines that occurred during war times. Here we investigate whether less extreme situations during World War 2 also affected later life mortality for cohorts born in Belgium, France, The Netherlands and Norway. We argue that these occupied countries experienced a considerable deterioration in daily life situations and show that this resulted in strongly increased mortality rates and lower probabilities of survival until age 55 among civilian populations who had been prenatally exposed to war time circumstances. However, this mortality effect among the prenatally exposed is entirely concentrated in the first years of life, particularly infanthood. Once we condition on having survived the first years of life, those who had been prenatally exposed do not have higher mortality rates. This suggest that “culling” is important and that effects found in earlier studies may have been biased downward substantially. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1519&r=his |
| By: | Keil, Andreas; Röhner, Charlotte; Jeske, Ina; Godau, Michael; Padberg, Stefan; Müller, Jennifer; Seyfi, Nur; Schraven, Mira |
| Abstract: | Wie hat sich die Kindheit im dörflichen Raum gewandelt? Wie beurteilen die Kinder ihre aktuelle Lebenssituation? Wie beurteilen die Eltern die Lebenssituation ihrer Kinder? Welche Muster des Aufwachsens zeigen sich im ländlichen Raum? Das sind die Forschungsfragen, denen im Rahmen der Längsschnittstudie 'Ländliche Lebensver-hältnisse im Wandel 1952, 1972, 1993 und 2012' in der Teilstudie zu Kindheit im ländlichen Raum durch ForscherInnen der Bergischen Universität Wuppertal nachgegangen werden konnte. Somit konnten Daten zu vergangenen Kindheiten in historisch-zeitlicher Perspektive und Daten zur aktuellen Kindheit aus der Perspektive der 5- bis 13-jährigen Kinder im ländlichen Raum erhoben und ausgewertet werden. [...] |
| Abstract: | How has childhood in rural areas changed? How do children judge on their current living conditions? How do parents judge on their children's living conditions? Which patterns of growing up occur in rural areas? These are the research questions which could be pursued by researchers form Bergische Universität Wuppertal in the context of the longitudinal study 'Ländliche Lebensverhältnisse im Wandel 1952, 1972, 1993 and 2012 (Changing Living Conditions in Rural Areas 1952, 1972, 1993 and 2012)', here: sub-study on childhood in rural areas. The study allowed for collecting and assessing data on past childhoods from a historical-chronological perspective as well as data on current childhood from the perspective of children at the age of 5-13 in rural areas. [...] |
| Keywords: | Wandel von Kindheit in ländlichen Regionen,Raumwahrnehmung und Raumkonstruktion,Raumnutzungsverhalten,Kindheitsmuster,changing childhood in rural areas,perception and construction of space,ways of making use of space,childhood pattern |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:323&r=his |
| By: | Myerson,Roger B. |
| Abstract: | A review of the history of the United States from its colonial origins shows how America's successful development has always been guided by two basic principles: representative democracy, and a proper division of power between national and subnational governments. The United States of America was established as an independent nation by a congress of delegates from 13 provincial assemblies, each of which consisted of representatives elected by their communities. Since colonial times, local democratic rights have attracted immigrants to help build new towns in the growing nation. Responsible local governments in America have had the power and the incentive to make local public investments for developing prosperous communities. Democratic competition in America has been strengthened by the ability of successful local leaders to become competitive candidates for higher offices. But in spite of America's example, many nations since the French Revolution have instead been drawn to centralized democracy, as national elites may prefer to centralize power around themselves. America's successful growth ultimately depended on its citizens'basic understanding that their welfare and security were enhanced by a balanced federal division of power between their elected local governments and the higher sovereign government of their nation. |
| Keywords: | Parliamentary Government,Political Systems and Analysis,Population Policies,Politics and Government,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures |
| Date: | 2015–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7512&r=his |
| By: | Grech, Aaron George |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the performance of the Maltese economy in the first half century since independence. The picture that emerges is of a nation that has benefitted from an extraordinary rate of economic growth and a significant reduction in volatility. The Maltese economy has matured exceedingly rapidly, with cycles of inflation and unemployment becoming much less pronounced and with a consistent underlying downward trend. The economic structure has shifted strongly towards services, which has led to an increased demand for labour that has accommodated the secular rise in female participation. The role of the state has changed dramatically, though as in other small open economies it continues to play a relatively more active economic function. The financial system has also altered beyond recognition, playing a more direct role in affecting economic activity. While the Maltese economy faces significant challenges, the strengths developed since independence will stand it in good stead. |
| Keywords: | Economic development, Industrial Structure, National Budget, Small States, Malta. |
| JEL: | E24 E3 H6 N14 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68392&r=his |
| By: | Rodríguez Weber, Javier |
| Abstract: | El presente Documento de Trabajo contiene una relación precisa de los procedimientos seguidos para la estimación de series relativas al ingreso y su distribución entre personas y sectores en Chile entre 1860 y 1970, así como de los resultados obtenidos. El mismo se basa en el capítulo 3 y los apéndices estadísticos y metodológicos de la tesis doctoral del autor (Rodríguez Weber 2014). En el texto se analizan en primer lugar las alternativas metodológicas de que disponen los historiadores económicos para estimar la distribución del ingreso, así como alguno de los problemas y limitaciones que estas plantean. En la tercera sección se describen en detalle los procedimientos seguidos y las fuentes utilizadas para construir series de desigualdad entre 1860 y 1970. Finalmente, estos resultados se someten a crítica, demostrando que las tendencias estimadas son robustas a la utilización de distintas fuentes y la opción por decisiones metodológicas y supuestos alternativos. El documento incluye asimismo un apéndice estadístico con los resultados obtenidos. |
| Keywords: | distribución del ingreso, desigualdad, salarios, Chile, tablas sociales, metodología |
| JEL: | C18 C82 N36 O15 Y10 |
| Date: | 2015–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68400&r=his |
| By: | Juan Robalino and Felipe Gómez (CATIE - Universidad de Costa Rica) |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lae:wpaper:201572&r=his |
| By: | Gerardo Sánchez |
| Abstract: | En historia económica se ha resaltado el gran crecimiento económico de la Argentina durante su Belle Époque (1870-1914), colocándola entre las primeras economías del período que se describe como de gran modernización institucional y social. Sin embargo, la literatura no profundiza dicho proceso al interior de las regiones del país, sino que lo analiza como una unidad homogénea. Este trabajo focaliza el análisis de las diferencias interregionales, comparando, por regiones, las performances de las variables normalmente destacadas en la historiografía. Como resultado de dicho cotejo se confirma que las diferencias no sólo fueron significativas, sino que se profundizaron durante el período analizado. La construcción de un ranking que compara el nivel de vida entre las provincias, y considera los tres primeros censos de población (1869, 1895 y 1914) permite apreciar aunque la modernización fue innegable, la misma profundizó aún más las diferencias entre regiones. |
| Keywords: | Desigualdades; Análisis regional; Crecimiento |
| JEL: | N01 D63 R11 O47 |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:014144&r=his |
| By: | David Hugh-Jones (University of East Anglia); Carlo Perroni (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We examine why heterogeneous communities may fail to provide public goods. Current work characterizes sanctioning free-riders as an undersupplied public good. We argue that often free-riders can be punished by the coordinated action of a group. This punishment can be profitable, and need not be undersupplied. But the power to expropriate defectors can also be used to expropriate outgroups. Heterogeneous societies may be inefficient because minorities, rather than free-riders, are expropriated. Even if this is not so, groups' different beliefs about the reasons for expropriation may make the threat of punishment less effective at preventing free-riding. We illustrate our theory with evidence from California mining camps, contemporary India, and US schools. In a public goods experiment using minimal groups and a profitable punishment institution, outgroups were more likely to be punished, and reacted differently to punishment than ingroup members. |
| Keywords: | group coercion, social heterogeneity |
| JEL: | H1 H4 N4 D02 |
| Date: | 2015–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2015_04&r=his |
| By: | Pierre Azoulay; Christian Fons-Rosen; Joshua S. Graff Zivin |
| Abstract: | We study the extent to which eminent scientists shape the vitality of their fields by examining entry rates into the fields of 452 academic life scientists who pass away while at the peak of their scientific abilities. Key to our analyses is a novel way to delineate boundaries around scientific fields by appealing solely to intellectual linkages between scientists and their publications, rather than collaboration or co-citation patterns. Consistent with previous research, the flow of articles by collaborators into affected fields decreases precipitously after the death of a star scientist (relative to control fields). In contrast, we find that the flow of articles by non-collaborators increases by 8% on average. These additional contributions are disproportionately likely to be highly cited. They are also more likely to be authored by scientists who were not previously active in the deceased superstar's field. Overall, these results suggest that outsiders are reluctant to challenge leadership within a field when the star is alive and that a number of barriers may constrain entry even after she is gone. Intellectual, social, and resource barriers all impede entry, with outsiders only entering subfields that offer a less hostile landscape for the support and acceptance of "foreign" ideas. |
| Keywords: | economics of science, scientific fields, superstars, invisible college, cumulative knowledge production. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1498&r=his |
| By: | Arjun Jayadev; Rahul Lahoti; Sanjay G. Reddy |
| Abstract: | Using newly comprehensive data and tools from the Global Consumption and Income Project or GCIP, covering most of the world and five decades, we present a portrait of the changing global distribution of consumption and income and discuss its implications for our understanding of inequality, poverty, inclusivity of growth and development, world economic welfare, and the emergence of a global ‘middle class’. We show how regional distributions of income and consumption have evolved very differently over time. We also undertake sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of various choices made in database construction and analysis. We find that levels of consumption and income have increased across the distribution, that the global distribution has become more relatively equal due to falling inter-country relative inequality, and that by some measures global poverty has declined greatly but by others it has hardly declined at all, even over the fifty years. The global middle class has grown markedly in certain countries but only slightly worldwide. Most of the marked changes have occurred after 1990. China’s rapid economic growth is by far the most important factor underlying almost all of them, notwithstanding sharply increasing inequalities within the country. Most improvements outside of China are associated with rapid developing country growth after 2000, and are of unknown durability. Country-experiences vary widely; there is for instance some evidence of ‘inequality convergence’ with previously more equal countries becoming less equal over time and the obverse. We provide support for previous findings (e.g. the replacement of the global ‘twin peaks’ by a unimodal distribution) but also arrive at some conclusions that overthrow old ‘stylized facts’ (e.g. that the Sub-Saharan African countries, and not Latin American ones, have the highest levels of inequality in the world, when measured using standardized surveys). The GCIP provides a resource for ongoing analysis, and forecasting, of developments in the world distribution. |
| JEL: | D30 D31 D60 D63 I30 O10 O15 P50 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mab:wpaper:2015_04&r=his |
| By: | Ron W Nielsen |
| Abstract: | Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian stagnation, which did not exist and it explains the mechanism of the transition from stagnation to growth that did not happen. The data show that the economic growth in Asia was never stagnant but hyperbolic. Industrial Revolution did not boost the economic growth in Asia. However, the theory contains also a dangerous and strongly-misleading concept that after a long epoch of stagnation we have now entered the epoch of sustained economic growth, the concept creating the sense of security. The opposite is true. After the epoch of sustained and secure economic growth we have now entered the epoch of a fast-increasing and insecure economic growth. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1512.05074&r=his |
| By: | Peter J. Boettke (George Mason University, Department of Economics); Joshua C. Hall (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Kathleen M. Sheehan (Creighton University, Heider College of Business) |
| Abstract: | Adam Smith famously argued that increased competition in religion would result in more religious tolerance and that the benefits of competition in the marketplace would also be seen in religious instruction when many religious sects are tolerated. We use a cross-section of a maximum of 167 countries to explore whether increased religious competition results in less governmental regulation of religion and less governmental favoritism of religion. Our measure of religious regulation and favoritism comes from the Association of Religion Data Archives. Our empirical analysis also explores the influence of economic and political factors, including the size of the economy, openness of trade, legal origins, education, the amount of checks and balances on the government and the role of democracy. |
| Keywords: | religious freedom, regulation, democracy |
| JEL: | Z12 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:15-47&r=his |
| By: | Islahi, Abdul Azim |
| Abstract: | Mufti Muhammad Abduh (1849-1905), a graduate of Jāmiʿ al-Azhar, was harbinger and precursor of Islamic modernism. He attracted attention of maximum number of researchers on modernism in the Muslim world. His contributions to fiqh, tafsīr, tawḥīd, literature, educational reform and politics are well known. He also thought and wrote on economic problem. He is one of the pioneer ʿulamā in the modern period who paid attention to this aspect of human life. He had deep concern for the poor; he opposed bonded labor and stressed upon the obligations of the rich towards the poor. He pointed out that the concentration of wealth caused the lack of effective demand. He gave wide meaning to the term fi sabīl-Allāh and al-afwā. He permitted insurance on the basis of muḍārabah. However, this aspect of his biography remained neglected. Ironically, the only thing reported about his economic views is ‘his permission of interest earned from the deposits in post offices’ for which no evidence is available in his writings. The present paper discusses all these points. |
| Keywords: | Jamal al-Din Afghani, Economic History of Egypt, Muslim Economic Thinking in the Nineteenth Century, Abduh on Insurance, Post office interest. |
| JEL: | B3 B31 N0 Z1 Z12 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68363&r=his |
| By: | Rahul Lahoti; Arjun Jayadev; Sanjay G. Reddy |
| Abstract: | We introduce two separate datasets (The Global Consumption Dataset (GCD) and The Global Income Dataset (GID)) making possible an unprecedented portrait of consumption and income of persons over time, within and across countries, around the world. The benchmark version of the dataset presents estimates of monthly real consumption and income for every percentile of the population (a ‘consumption/income profile’) for 158 countries and more than half a century (1960-2015). We describe the construction of the datasets and demonstrate possible uses by presenting some sample results concerning the distribution of consumption, poverty and inequality in the world. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Income, Growth, Global Income Distribution, Poverty, Inclusive Growth, Inequality |
| JEL: | B41 C80 I30 I32 O10 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mab:wpaper:2015_07&r=his |
| By: | Francesco Sergi (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this contribution to the epistemology and history of recent macroeconomics is to construct a clear understanding of econometric methods and problems in New Classical mecroeconomics. Most historical work have focused so far on theoretical or policy implication aspects of this research program set in motion by Robert Lucas in the early seventies. On the contrary, the empirical and econometric works of New Classical macroeconomics have received little attention. I focus especially on the contributions gathered in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, edited in 1981 by Lucas and Thomas Sargent. The main claim of this article is that the publication of this book must be regarded as a turn in macroeconomics, that would bring macroeconometric modeling methodology closer to Lucas's conception of models. The analysis of the New Classical macroeconometrics through the Lucas methodology allow us to propose an original historical account of the methods presented in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, but also of the problems that flawed this approach |
| Keywords: | history of macroeconomics; Lucas (Robert); Sargent (Thomas); macroeconometrics; modeling methodology |
| JEL: | B22 B41 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:15088&r=his |
| By: | Andrew T. Young (West Virginia University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Good government requires a constitution that demarcates what political agents can and cannot do, and such a constitution must be self-enforcing. The medieval West was characterized by the estates system, where the political power of monarchs was roughly balanced by that of a landed and militarized nobility. This rough balance of power contributed to a Western tradition of limited government and constitutional bargaining. I argue that this balance has important roots in the fifth and sixth century barbarian settlements that occurred within the frontiers of the declining Western Roman Empire. These settlements provided barbarians with allotments consisting of lands or claims to taxes due from those lands. These allotments aligned the incentives of barbarian warriors and Roman landowners; they also realigned (or newly aligned) the incentives of barbarian warriors and leadership elite as their roving confederacies became stationary kingdoms. Barbarian military forces became decentralized and the warriors became political powerful shareholders of the realm. |
| Keywords: | constitutional political economy, polycentric sovereignty, shareholder states, collective action problems, governance institutions, state emergence |
| JEL: | H10 P16 P48 N40 N43 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:15-41&r=his |
| By: | Claude Diebolt; Tapas Mishra; Faustine Perrin |
| Abstract: | Recent theoretical developments of growth models, especially on unified theories of growth, suggest that the child quantity-quality trade-off has been a central element of the transition from Malthusian stagnation to sustained growth. Using an original censusbased dataset, this paper explores the role of gender on the trade-off between education and fertility across 86 French counties during the nineteenth century, as an empirical extension of Diebolt-Perrin (2013). We first test the existence of the child quantity-quality trade-off in 1851. Second, we explore the long-run effect of education on fertility from a gendered approach. Two important results emerge: (i) significant and negative association between education and fertility is found, and (ii) such a relationship is non-unique over the distribution of education/fertility. While our results suggest the existence of a negative and significant effect of the female endowments in human capital on the fertility transition, the effects of negative endowment almost disappear at low level of fertility. |
| Keywords: | Cliometrics, Education, Fertility, Demographic Transition, Unified growth theory, Nineteenth century France. |
| JEL: | C22 C26 C32 C36 C81 C82 I20 J13 N01 N33 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2015-28&r=his |
| By: | Blum, Matthias; Rei, Claudia |
| Abstract: | The large-scale persecution of Jews during World War II generated massive refugee movements. Using data from 20,441 predominantly Jewish passengers from 19 countries traveling from Lisbon to New York between 1940 and 1942, we analyze the last wave of refugees escaping the Holocaust and verify the validity of height as a proxy for human and health capital. We further show this episode of European migration displays well-known features of migrant self-selection: early migrants were taller than late migrants; a large migrant stock reduces migrant selectivity; and economic barriers to migration apply. Our findings show that Europe experienced substantial losses in human and health capital while the US benefitted from the immigration of European refugees. |
| Keywords: | migration,refugees,World War II,Holocaust,Germany,New York |
| JEL: | N32 N34 N42 N44 F22 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:1508&r=his |
| By: | George J. Hall (Brandeis University); Thomas J. Sargent (New York University) |
| Abstract: | Congress first imposed an aggregate debt limit in 1939 when it delegated decisions about designing US debt instruments to the Treasury. Before World War I, Congress designed each bond and specified a maximum amount of each bond that the Treasury could issue. It usually specified purposes for which proceeds could be spent. We construct and interpret a Federal debt limit before 1939. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brd:wpaper:98&r=his |
| By: | Fernando Salazar Silva; Alba Liliana Cuaspud Cáliz |
| Abstract: | El presente artículo contiene una reflexión que no pretende reproducir con fidelidad las ideas de Smith y Hayek, por el contrario intenta hacer una aproximación para poder comprender su contribución al tema de los precios desde la filosofía moral. Se sostiene tanto que Smith como Hayek, deben ser abordados como tutores del principio de la libertad individual, condición realista para acercar los mercados morales y los mercados económicos y desde aquí conocer el sistema de precios. |
| Keywords: | Libertad; precios; individualismo; moral; instituciones. |
| JEL: | B3 B4 N01 |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:014142&r=his |
| By: | Islahi, Abdu Azim |
| Abstract: | The present paper is an attempt to correct Timur Kuran on various issues related to the genesis of Islamic economics. It demonstrates that "Islamic economics" is not a product of twentieth century. The term may be new but its origins go back to early period of Islam. Its evolution up to the present state of a distinguished discipline can be divided into six distinct phases. The paper argues that the modern Islamic economics was never a sectarian subject. Nor was it developed for Muslims' identity and protection purpose. Scholars of different regions and of diverse affiliations promoted it and its propounders aimed at the well-being of all |
| Keywords: | Islamic Economic Thought, Muslim economic thinking, Phases of the development of Islamic economics, Timur Kuran |
| JEL: | B2 B20 B5 B51 N0 Z12 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68367&r=his |
| By: | Islahi, Abdul Azim |
| Abstract: | The present paper proposes to study differences in thoughts of the first vs. second generation Islamic economists, during the past forty years. It will also investigate deviations that occurred in thought and practice in this period. But first it will try to determine the basis of differentiation between the two generations and their distinguishing features. For our study purpose, we regard as the first generation those scholars who started writing on the subject of Islamic economics between 1950 to 1975, a period highly unfriendly if not hostile to the idea of economics with Islamic perspective. This phase culminated at the organization of the first international conference on Islamic economics by King Abdulaziz University in the Holy city of Islam – Makkah Mukarramah. A new era started after the conference, in terms of the establishment of research and study centers, issue of specialized journals, enrolment to Ph. D. courses, foundation of study departments, set up of financial institutions, organization of conferences and seminars, award of prizes, and creation of employment opportunities. It also attracted attention of some non-Muslim economists. Thus, those who joined the movement of Islamic economics after this conference will be considered as the second generation. In its concluding remarks, the paper would suggest certain steps that could be taken to bridge the gaps, minimize the difference, and train the new generation. |
| Keywords: | Modern history of Islamic economics; Gaps in Islamic economics; Tawhidi economics; Spiritual Economics; “Financialization” of Islamic Economics; Future of Islamic Economics. |
| JEL: | B2 B21 B29 Z1 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68353&r=his |