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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2012‒09‒03
23 papers chosen by |
| By: | Hollow, Matthew |
| Abstract: | This article looks in more depth at the different ways in which ideas about cashless societies were articulated and explored in pre-1900 utopian literature. Taking examples from the works of key writers such as Thomas More, Robert Owen, William Morris and Edward Bellamy, it discusses the different ways in which the problems associated with conventional notes-and-coins monetary systems were tackled as well as looking at the proposals for alternative payment systems to take their place. Ultimately, what it shows is that although the desire to dispense with cash and find a more efficient and less-exploitable payment system is certainly nothing new, the practical problems associated with actually implementing such a system remain hugely challenging. This paper was written for the Cashless Society Project, an interdisciplinary and international effort to add some historical and analytical perspectives to discussions about the future of money, banking and payments. For more information, see http://cashlesssociety.wordpress.com/. |
| Keywords: | utopian; cashless; money; pre-1900 |
| JEL: | E42 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40780&r=his |
| By: | Geoffrey G. Jones (Harvard Business School, Entrepreneurial Management Unit) |
| Abstract: | This working paper examines the creation of the global natural food and beauty categories before 2000. This is shown to have been a lengthy process of new category creation involving the exercise of entrepreneurial imagination. Pioneering entrepreneurs faced little consumer demand for natural products, and little consumer knowledge of what they entailed. The creation of new categories involved three overlapping waves of entrepreneurship. The first involved making the ideological case for natural products. This often entailed investment in education and publishing activities. Second, entrepreneurs engaged in the creation of industry associations which could advocate, as well as give the nascent industry credibility and create standards. Finally, entrepreneurs established retail stores, supply and distribution networks, and created brands. Entrepreneurial cognition and motivation frequently lay in individual, and very local, experiences, but many of the key pioneers were also highly globalized in their world views, with strong perception of how small, local efforts related to much bigger and global pictures. A significant sub-set of the influential historical figures were articulate in expressing strong religious convictions. The paper concludes that by the 1990s it was evident that the success of entrepreneurial pioneers in building the market for green products created a new set of issues, especially related to the legitimacy of their businesses and of the concept of greenness. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:13-024&r=his |
| By: | Ho Fai Chan (QUT); Benno Torgler (QUT) |
| Abstract: | An academic award is method by which peers offer recognition of intellectual efforts. In this paper we take a purely descriptive look at the relationship between becoming a Fellow of the Econometric Society and receiving the Nobel Prize in economics. We discover some interesting aspects: of all 69 Nobel Prize Laureates between 1969 and 2011, only 9 of them were not also Fellows. Moreover, the proportion of future Nobel winners among the Fellows has been quite high throughout time and a large share of researchers who became Fellows between the 1930s and 1950s became Nobel Laureates at a later stage. On average, researchers become Fellows relatively early in their career (14.9 years after their PhD) and those who were subsequently made Nobel Laureates become Fellows earlier than other researchers. Interestingly, Harvard and MIT have been the dominant PhD granting institutions to generate Fellows and Nobel Laureates in the past. |
| Keywords: | Fellows of the Econometric Society, Nobel Laureate, economics of science, awards. |
| JEL: | D71 A14 |
| Date: | 2012–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qut:dpaper:291&r=his |
| By: | Johnson, Noel D; Koyama, Mark |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the historical process of legal centralization and increased religious toleration by the state. We develop a model in which legal centralization leads to the criminalization of the religious beliefs of a large proportion of the population. This process initially leads to increased persecution, but, because these persecutions are costly, it eventually causes the state to broaden the standards of orthodox belief and move toward religious toleration. We compare the results of the model with historical evidence drawn from two important cases in which religious diversity and state centralization collided in France: the Albigensian crusades of the thirteenth century and the rise of Protestant belief in the sixteenth century. Both instances sup- port our central claim that the secularization of western European state institutions during the early-modern period was driven by the costs of imposing a common set of legal standards on religiously diverse populations. |
| Keywords: | State Capacity; Religion; Secularization; Heresy; Legal Capacity; France |
| JEL: | H10 Z12 P48 K42 N43 |
| Date: | 2012–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40887&r=his |
| By: | Vegard Iversen; Richard Palmer-Jones; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | Abstract Banerjee and Iyer (henceforth, BI) (American Economic Review, 2005) find that districts which the British assigned to landlord revenue systems systematically underperform districts with non-landlord based revenue systems, especially in agricultural investment and productivity and mainly after the onset of the Green Revolution in the mid-1960s. On this basis, BI claim there were long-lasting effects of the institutions established in British India on a variety of development outcomes after independence. We correct a miscoding of the land revenue system in Central Provinces, which BI characterise as mostly landlord based, when reliable historical evidence suggest that this region should have been attributed to a mixed landlord/non-landlord based revenue system. Using a more appropriate classification of the land revenue system of the Central Provinces constructed from documented archival research, we find no evidence that agricultural performance of Indian districts in the post-independence period was adversely affected by the colonial landlord land revenue system. Our results demonstrate that the key BI argument that the more ‘oppressive’ landlord-based colonial land revenue systems mattered for post-independent agricultural development in India rests on fragile historical and statistical foundations. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:17412&r=his |
| By: | Nathan Rosenberg (Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research); W. Edward Steinmuller (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | In historical perspective, both the nature of and arrangements for the generation of engineering knowledge have evolved over the past 150 years. We examine the historical development of the search for ‘useful knowledge’ in agriculture, aeronautics and chemical engineering during the first half of this period and the evolving balance between public and private initiative in supporting this search. During this period, the US was engaged in the engineering knowledge was often empirical, practice oriented, and difficult to reconcile with the aims and structure of university teaching. As a consequence, private and public initiatives were often co-mingled and connections with users of the knowledge were essential both for funding (either directly or through the mobilization of political constituencies) and for the testing of designs and emerging theories. Incorporation of engineering knowledge into university curricula was uneven and benefitted greatly, but not exclusively, from the Land Grant Universities. We highlight the distinctions between this early period and developments following World War II, when engineering knowledge has become more theoretical, science-oriented and strongly embedded in universities. In this new era of engineering knowledge, we consider whether areas remain where pre-theoretical empirical knowledge might usefully be exploited and whether the earlier period might provide a guide to funding and organisational arrangements for doing so. |
| Keywords: | knowledge, engineering, agriculture, aeronautical engineering, chemical engineering, universities, science policy |
| JEL: | I23 O30 O31 N71 N72 L62 L65 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sip:dpaper:11-021&r=his |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Viola von Berlepsch |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent to which the distinct settlement pattern of migrants arriving in the US during the big migration waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries has left a legacy on the economic development of the counties where they settled and whether this legacy can be traced until today. Using data from the 1880, 1900 and 1910 censuses, we first look at the geography of migration across US counties in the 48 continental states. We then link this settlement pattern of migrants to current levels of local development – proxied by GDP per capita at county level in 2005 – while controlling for a number of factors which may have influenced both the location of migrants at the time of migration, as well as for the economic development of the county today. The results of the econometric analysis including instrumental variables underline that the big migration waves have left an indelible trace on territories which determines their economic performance until today. US counties which attracted large numbers of migrants more than a century ago are still more dynamic today than counties that did not. The results also show that the territorial imprint of migration has become more pervasive than all other local characteristics which would have determined and shaped economic performance in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. |
| Keywords: | Migration, economic development, institutions, culture, long-term legacy, counties, US |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1216&r=his |
| By: | Tamura, Robert; Simon, Curtis; Murphy, Kevin M. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new estimates of the benets of equal education opportunity for blacks over the period 1820-2000. For the better part of US history, blacks have enjoyed less access to schooling for their children than whites. This paper attempts to quantify the value of this discrimination. Our estimates of the welfare cost of this form of discrimination prior to the Civil War range between 1.7 and 10 times black wealth, and between 1.6 and 4 times black wealth prior to 1960. Further we find that the Civil Rights era was valued by blacks in the South by between 1 percent to 2 percent of wealth. Outside of the South we find significant costs of discrimination prior to 1960, ranging from 8 percent to 100 percent of black wealth! For these divisions from 1960-2000 blacks have attained rough parity in schooling access. The welfare magnitudes are similar to the hypothetical gains to blacks if they had white mortality rates. |
| Keywords: | cost of discrimination; unequal access to education; fertility; schooling |
| JEL: | J13 O11 J15 J24 |
| Date: | 2012–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40921&r=his |
| By: | Islahi, Abdul Azim |
| Abstract: | This is a critical evaluation of the book entitled The Long Divergence:How Islamic Law Held Back the Middle East by Timur Kuran. |
| Keywords: | Economic History of Middle East; Ottoman Economic History; Decadence of Muslim East |
| JEL: | P00 O53 K00 N00 N95 B00 P52 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40877&r=his |
| By: | Karol Jan BOROWIECKI (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | I investigate the consequences of long-run persistence of a societies’ preference towards cultural goods. Historical cultural activity is approximated with the frequency of births of classical composers during the Renaissance and is linked with contemporary supply of cultural activities in Italian provinces. Areas with a one-standard-deviation higher number of composer births expose nowadays up to 0.4 standard deviations higher supply of cultural activities (such as concerts or theater performances). Those provinces seem to exhibit today also a somewhat lower supply of non-cultural activities. The results point at a tantalising divergence in societies’ cultural preferences which is attributable to events rooted long in the past. Furthermore, the findings imply a remarkable persistency of the geography of artistic activity. While human capital is found to be potentially a driver for spill-over effects across different cultural disciplines over time, other unobservable factors, such as societies’ preference traits, determine the persistency within most closely related cultural areas. |
| Keywords: | Economic development, Culture, Institutions, Path Dependence, Endogenous preferences |
| JEL: | N33 N34 O10 Z1 Z10 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0312&r=his |
| By: | Dominique Torre (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR7321 - Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis (UNS)) |
| Abstract: | Paul Einzig was born in 1897 in Brasov but comes to London in 1919. From 1920, he begins to write articles for scienti c reviews, especially The Economic Journal, while he contributes more regularly to The Financial News, The Financial Times or The Banker. From this period to his death in 1973, he writes also many books, on very diverse subjects but devoted for the major part to monetary analysis and international nance. This paper concentrates on two subjects recurrently developed by Paul Einzig. The rst is the analysis of forward exchange market where Einzig observes anomalies in the covered interest rates parity. These observations, in accordance with those of Keynes, initiate a long controversy - still not closed -, on the origin of these anomalies. The second subject is less technical and more fundamental: what are in practice the respective properties of the di erent possible external exchange regimes? Einzig provides all his life long historical and analytical arguments to the reader interested in this question. He observes and comments regularly and in detail the crises and failures of di erent monetary arrangements. These observations and analyzes are still useful at a time when, after many years of trust in the corner solutions (free otation and monetary unions) the international community nds necessary to elaborate adequate regulations for the Eurozone policy-mix, or to control the excessive instability of the international capital flows. |
| Keywords: | Paul Einzig, covered interest rates parity, Gold Exchange Standard, free flotation, Romania |
| Date: | 2012–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00726126&r=his |
| By: | Robert J. Gordon |
| Abstract: | This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow’s seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus there is no guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely. Rather, the paper suggests that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well turn out to be a unique episode in human history. The paper is only about the United States and views the future from 2007 while pretending that the financial crisis did not happen. Its point of departure is growth in per-capita real GDP in the frontier country since 1300, the U.K. until 1906 and the U.S. afterwards. Growth in this frontier gradually accelerated after 1750, reached a peak in the middle of the 20th century, and has been slowing down since. The paper is about “how much further could the frontier growth rate decline?” The analysis links periods of slow and rapid growth to the timing of the three industrial revolutions (IR’s), that is, IR #1 (steam, railroads) from 1750 to 1830; IR #2 (electricity, internal combustion engine, running water, indoor toilets, communications, entertainment, chemicals, petroleum) from 1870 to 1900; and IR #3 (computers, the web, mobile phones) from 1960 to present. It provides evidence that IR #2 was more important than the others and was largely responsible for 80 years of relatively rapid productivity growth between 1890 and 1972. Once the spin-off inventions from IR #2 (airplanes, air conditioning, interstate highways) had run their course, productivity growth during 1972-96 was much slower than before. In contrast, IR #3 created only a short-lived growth revival between 1996 and 2004. Many of the original and spin-off inventions of IR #2 could happen only once – urbanization, transportation speed, the freedom of females from the drudgery of carrying tons of water per year, and the role of central heating and air conditioning in achieving a year-round constant temperature. Even if innovation were to continue into the future at the rate of the two decades before 2007, the U.S. faces six headwinds that are in the process of dragging long-term growth to half or less of the 1.9 percent annual rate experienced between 1860 and 2007. These include demography, education, inequality, globalization, energy/environment, and the overhang of consumer and government debt. A provocative “exercise in subtraction” suggests that future growth in consumption per capita for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution could fall below 0.5 percent per year for an extended period of decades. |
| JEL: | D24 E2 E66 J11 J15 O3 O31 O4 Q43 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18315&r=his |
| By: | Simachev, Yuri; Kuzyk, Mikhail; Ivanov, Denis |
| Abstract: | The paper tells the history of Russian financial development institutions, analyses their scope and fields of operation, discovers crucial problems and imbalances of Russian financial developenment institutions system and speculates on possible ways to its improvement. |
| Keywords: | Russia; financial development institutions |
| JEL: | O38 O32 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40851&r=his |
| By: | Auerbach, Paul (Kingston University London); Sotiropoulos, Dimitris P. (Kingston University London) |
| Abstract: | In the early twentieth century, a range of writers produced visions of a socialist economy whose distinguishing characteristic was an allocation of resources using a ‘technical’ perspective. In the 1930s, Oskar Lange took up the challenge of Ludwig von Mises’ claim of the ‘impossibility’ of constructing a socialist economy on such an engineering basis. He readily acceded to the need for efficiency calculations to be made in value terms rather than using purely natural or engineering criteria, but claimed that these values could emerge without a market for capital goods, and without private ownership of capital. Friedrich Hayek replied stressing the dynamic aspects of competition in the context of the capital market; the latter is to be seen as a discovery procedure wherein production possibilities must not be taken for granted. Thus, socialist calculation is impossible because of the absence of those markets for capital and risk that evaluate the success or failure of different investment decisions under capitalism. Appraising this debate, we emerge with two findings. First, Lange's contribution was based on a one-sided, static conception of the capitalist economy, and therefore of the construction of a socialist alternative. Second, the Austrian approach only surreptitiously concedes the key role of finance in its defence of the dynamic properties of capitalism. And yet it is the very gyrations and instability emerging from the financial sector in capitalism that was one of the central factors motivating the search for an alternative engineering method of allocation in the first place. The latter point invites us to reconsider the place of finance in various schools of economics in mainstream thinking. |
| Keywords: | Lange; von Mises; Hayek; risk; finance |
| JEL: | B24 B25 B26 |
| Date: | 2012–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kngedp:2012_006&r=his |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser (Harvard University); Sari Pekkala Kerr (Wellesley College); William R. Kerr (Harvard Business School, Entrepreneurial Management Unit) |
| Abstract: | Measures of entrepreneurship, such as average establishment size and the prevalence of start-ups, correlate strongly with employment growth across and within metropolitan areas, but the endogeneity of these measures bedevils interpretation. Chinitz (1961) hypothesized that coal mines near Pittsburgh led that city to specialization in industries, like steel, with significant scale economies and that those big firms led to a dearth of entrepreneurial human capital across several generations. We test this idea by looking at the spatial location of past mines across the United States: proximity to historical mining deposits is associated with bigger firms and fewer start-ups in the middle of the 20th century. We use mines as an instrument for our entrepreneurship measures and find a persistent link between entrepreneurship and city employment growth; this connection works primarily through lower employment growth of start-ups in cities that are closer to mines. These effects hold in cold and warm regions alike and in industries that are not directly related to mining, such as trade, finance and services. We use quantile instrumental variable regression techniques and identify mostly homogeneous effects throughout the conditional city growth distribution. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Industrial Organization, Chinitz, Agglomeration, Clusters, Cities, Mines. |
| JEL: | L0 L1 L2 L6 N5 N9 O1 O4 R0 R1 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:13-015&r=his |
| By: | Andrew Coleman (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the home production activities of newly formed and long established households in rural New York over a twenty year period after the Erie Canal was built. It shows that newly established households had lower home production activities than long established households resident in the same area, conditional on the size, age, and land-owning characteristics of the households. Thus some of the decline in aggregate production was due to the arrival of new, differently behaving households, rather than changing behaviour of established households. However, long established households eventually copied their new neighbours, reducing their home production activities to similar levels. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure; home production; Erie Canal; rural development and transformation |
| JEL: | N71 O33 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_02&r=his |
| By: | Ocampo, José Antonio (Asian Development Bank Institute); Titelman, Daniel (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Latin American has the longest history of regional integration efforts in the developing world. This paper analyzes the experience of regional monetary cooperation in Latin America over the past three decades. This experience has been overall successful but also uneven, both in terms of country coverage and services provided. Although strictly not a form of monetary cooperation, development financing does play a useful complementary role by proving counter-cyclical or at least stable financing during crises, when private financing for developing countries dries up. |
| Keywords: | regional monetary cooperation; latin america; regional integration; development financing |
| JEL: | O23 O54 |
| Date: | 2012–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0373&r=his |
| By: | Andrew Smith |
| Keywords: | Fractional reserve banking, financial crises, costs of banking crises |
| JEL: | D12 D31 I32 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201206&r=his |
| By: | Peter Siminski (University of Wollongong); Simon Ville (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | The Australian conscription lotteries of 1965-1972 are a unique and underutilised resource for studying the effects of army service and veterans’ programs. Drawing on many data sources and 25 years of related US literature, we present a comprehensive analysis of this natural experiment, examining indicators of health, personal economic outcomes, family outcomes and educational attainment. We discuss the numerous potential mechanisms involved and the limitations of available data. |
| Keywords: | veterans, conscription, lottery, Australia, natural experiment |
| JEL: | H55 H56 I38 I12 I21 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp12-06&r=his |
| By: | John Lynham (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA); Ilan Noy (School of Economics and Finance, Wellington, New Zealand); Jonathan Page (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA) |
| Abstract: | Research on the economic and human toll of natural disasters focuses on the short-term, often ignoring the important long-term impacts of these catastrophic events. The main reason for the lack of empirical research on the long-term is the inherent and unavoidable difficulty in identifying any long-term impacts and attributing them to the disaster. On the 23rd of May 1960, a devastating tsunami struck the city of Hilo on the island of Hawaii. Remarkably, there was no significant injury or damage elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands. This tsunami provides a unique natural experiment as the tsunami was unexpected, and the other Hawaiian Islands, which were not hit by the tsunami, provide an ideal control group that enables us to precisely identify the counter-factual. We use a newly developed synthetic control methodology formalized in Abadie et al. (2010) to measure the long-term impacts of the tsunami. We find that while wages did not decline noticeably, population and employment trends shifted. Fifteen years after the event, unemployment was still 32% higher and population was still 9% lower than it would have been had the tsunami not occurred. We also find a corresponding decrease in the number of employers and sugar production in the county. |
| Keywords: | coastal disasters, disaster impact, Hilo, tsunami, Hawaii, synthetic control |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201216&r=his |
| By: | Dirk G Baur (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney); Duy T. Tran (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. We closely follow Escribano and Granger (1998) and extend their study. First, we use a 40-year sample period from 1970-2010 and examine the existence and stability of a long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. Second, we study the role of bubbles and financial crises for the relationship between gold and silver. The results indicate that extreme price changes in certain periods create long-run (co-integration relationships since gold and silver are not co-integrated in “normal” periods. |
| Keywords: | co-integration; nonlinear error-correlation; Granger causality; gold; silver; bubbles; financial crisis |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:wpaper:172&r=his |
| By: | Bursztyn, Leonardo; Cantoni, Davide |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of exposure to foreign media on the economic behavior of agents in a totalitarian regime. We study private consumption choices focusing on former East Germany, where differential access to Western television was determined by geographic features. Using data collected after the transition to a market economy, we find no evidence of a significant impact of previous exposure to Western television on aggregate consumption levels. However, exposure to Western broadcasts affects the composition of consumption, biasing choices in favor of categories of goods with high intensity of pre-reunification advertisement. The effects vanish by 1998. |
| Keywords: | Advertising; Communism; Consumption; East Germany; Media; Television |
| JEL: | D12 E21 Z10 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9101&r=his |
| By: | Theodore J. Joyce; Ruoding Tan; Yuxiu Zhang |
| Abstract: | Next year marks the 40th anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Roe v. Wade. We use unique data on abortions performed in New York State from 1971-1975 to analyze the impact of legalized abortion in New York on abortion and birth rates of non-residents. We estimate that abortion rates declined by 12.0 percent for every hundred miles a woman lived from New York in the years before Roe. If Roe were overturned average travel distance to the nearest abortion provider would increase by 157 miles in the 31 states expected to prohibit abortion. Under this scenario abortion rates would fall by 14.9 percent nationally, resulting in at most, 178,800 additional births or 4.2 percent of the U.S. total in 2008. A ban in 17 states would result in a 6.0 percent decline in abortions and at most, 1.7 percent rise in births. |
| JEL: | J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18338&r=his |