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on Health Economics |
| By: | Michele Fioretti (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hongming Wang |
| Abstract: | Public procurement bodies increasingly resort to pay-for-performance contracts to promote efficient spending. We show that firm responses to pay-for-performance can widen the inequality in accessing social services. Focusing on the quality bonus payment initiative in Medicare Advantage, we find that higher quality-rated insurers responded to bonus payments by selecting healthier enrollees with premium differences across counties. Selection is profitable because the quality rating fails to adjust for differences in enrollee health. Selection inflated the bonus payments and shifted the supply of highrated insurance to the healthiest counties, reducing access to lower-priced, higher-rated insurance in the riskiest counties. |
| Keywords: | pay-for-performance, Medicare Advantage, risk selection, quality ratings, health insurance access |
| Date: | 2021–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03791843&r=hea |
| By: | Manudeep Bhuller; Gordon B. Dahl; Katrine V. Løken; Magne Mogstad |
| Abstract: | Almost one third of women worldwide report some form of physical or sexual violence by a partner in their lifetime, yet little is known about the mental health and well-being effects for either victims or their children. We study the costs associated with domestic violence (DV) in the context of Norway, where we can link offenders to victims and their children over time. Our difference-in-differences framework uses those who will be victimized in the future as controls. We find that a DV report involving the police is associated with large changes in the home environment, including marital dissolution and a corresponding decline in financial resources. A DV report increases mental health visits by 35% for victims and by 19% for their children in the year of the event, effects which taper off over time for the victim, but not for children. Victims also experience more doctor visits, lower employment, reduced earnings and a higher use of disability insurance while their children are more likely to receive child protective services and commit a crime. Using a complementary RD design, we find that a DV report results in declines both in children’s test scores and completion of the first year of high school. |
| JEL: | I10 J12 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30792&r=hea |
| By: | Benjamin Hansen; Joseph J. Sabia; Jessamyn Schaller |
| Abstract: | This study explores the effect of in-person schooling on youth suicide. We document three key findings. First, using data from the National Vital Statistics System from 1990-2019, we document the historical association between teen suicides and the school calendar. We show that suicides among 12-to-18-year-olds are highest during months of the school year and lowest during summer months (June through August) and also establish that areas with schools starting in early August experience increases in teen suicides in August, while areas with schools starting in September don’t see youth suicides rise until September. Second, we show that this seasonal pattern dramatically changed in 2020. Teen suicides plummeted in March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic began in the U.S. and remained low throughout the summer before rising in Fall 2020 when many K-12 schools returned to in-person instruction. Third, using county-level variation in school reopenings in Fall 2020 and Spring 2021—proxied by anonymized SafeGraph smartphone data on elementary and secondary school foot traffic—we find that returning from online to in-person schooling was associated with a 12-to-18 percent increase teen suicides. This result is robust to controls for seasonal effects and general lockdown effects (proxied by restaurant and bar foot traffic), and survives falsification tests using suicides among young adults ages 19-to-25. Auxiliary analyses using Google Trends queries and the Youth Risk Behavior Survey suggests that bullying victimization may be an important mechanism. |
| JEL: | I1 I18 I19 I2 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30795&r=hea |
| By: | Johannes Buggle (University of Vienna [Vienna]); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Seyhun Orcan Sakalli (King‘s College London); Mathias Thoenig (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, University of Oxford [Oxford], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then, we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (of 1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12 to 20%, and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6 to 10%. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Migration Policy, Counterfactual History, Nazi Germany |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03861721&r=hea |
| By: | Judit Krekó (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis); Dániel Prinz (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Andrea Weber (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | In most disability insurance programs beneficiaries lose some or all of their benefits if they earn above an earnings threshold. While intended to screen out applicants with high remaining working capacity, earnings limits can also distort the labor supply of beneficiaries. We develop a simple framework to evaluate this trade-off. We use a reduction in the earnings limit in Hungary to examine screening and labor supply responses. We find that the policy changed selection into the program modestly but reduced labor supply significantly. Viewed through the lens of our model, these findings suggest that the earnings threshold should be higher. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, earnings limit, labor supply |
| JEL: | H53 H55 I38 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2214&r=hea |
| By: | Rebecca Fraenkel; Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Sam D. Krumholz |
| Abstract: | During the past fifteen years, more than 30% of US coal plants have had at least one coal-fired generator close. We utilize this natural experiment to estimate the effect of coal plant exposure on mortality and house values. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that, despite the fact that most of this coal generation is replaced with natural gas generation, individuals in counties whose population centroid is within 30 miles of a plant that closes at least one coal-fired unit experience large health effects following shutdown. While these health improvements appear to capitalize into housing values, they only do so for homes within 15 miles of the plant and only when the retirement is complete rather than partial. Taken together, these results underscore the importance of subjective perceptions in shaping market-mediated price effects with far-reaching implications for the literature. |
| JEL: | I18 Q4 Q50 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30801&r=hea |
| By: | Michael D. Frakes; Jonathan Gruber |
| Abstract: | One explanation for insufficient use of primary care in the U.S. is a lack of trust between patients and providers – particularly along racial lines. We assess the role of racial concordance between patients and medical providers in driving use of preventive care and the implications for patient outcomes. We use unique data from the Military Health System, where we observe providers as patients so that we can identify their race, and where moves across bases change exposure to provider race. We consider patients with four chronic, deadly, but ultimately manageable illnesses, where the relationship with the provider may have the most direct and important impact on health. We find striking evidence that racial concordance leads to improved maintenance of preventive care – and ultimately lower patient mortality. Pooling across these diseases, we estimate that a one-standard deviation increase in the share of providers who are Black leads to a 15% relative decline in Black mortality among those with these manageable illnesses. Our results further suggest that between 55 and 69% of this mortality impact arises through improved medication use and adherence, with other aspects of the provider-patient relationship accounting for the residual. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J14 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30767&r=hea |
| By: | Buyi Wang; Richard G. Frank; Sherry A. Glied |
| Abstract: | A growing body of evidence indicates that poor health early in life can leave lasting scars on adult health and economic outcomes. While much of this literature focuses on childhood experiences, mechanisms generating these lasting effects – recurrence of illness and interruption of human capital accumulation – are not limited to childhood. In this study, we examine how an episode of depression experienced in early adulthood affects subsequent labor market outcomes. We find that, at age 50, people who had met diagnostic criteria for depression when surveyed at ages 27-35 earn 10% lower hourly wages (conditional on occupation) and work 120-180 fewer hours annually, together generating 24% lower annual wage incomes. A portion of this income penalty (21-39%) occurs because depression is often a chronic condition, recurring later in life. But a substantial share (25-55%) occurs because depression in early adulthood disrupts human capital accumulation, by reducing work experience and by influencing selection into occupations with skill distributions that offer lower potential for wage growth. These lingering effects of early depression reinforce the importance of early and multifaceted intervention to address depression and its follow-on effects in the workplace. |
| JEL: | I10 I3 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30776&r=hea |
| By: | Angelucci, Manuela (University of Texas at Austin); Bennett, Daniel (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | Depression, a common and serious illness that is more prevalent among the poor, may limit the demand for health products and other beneficial technologies. To investigate, we evaluate the impact of depression treatment on the demand for a novel health product, hand sanitizer, in India. We cross-randomize depression treatment (pharmacotherapy) and free distribution of the product, and measure impacts on subsequent willingness to pay using the Becker-Degroot-Marschak mechanism, as well as product use. Depression treatment improves mental health and increases willingness to pay by 5 percent, implying that having major depression reduces willingness to pay by 26 percent. However, depression treatment does not affect product use, which is high after free distribution for all recipients. We investigate several pathways that may explain this pattern. These results are consistent with an effect of depression on the decision costs associated with a novel purchase. Our findings suggest that policymakers should use free distribution and other approaches that minimize decision costs to encourage the adoption of health products in high-depression settings. |
| Keywords: | depression, health, poverty |
| JEL: | I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15832&r=hea |
| By: | Pinka Chatterji; Hanna Glenn; Sara Markowitz; Jennifer Karas Montez |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we test whether the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions are associated with in-hospital maternal morbidity. The ACA expansions may have affected maternal morbidity by increasing pre-conception access to health care, and by improving the quality of delivery care through enhancing hospitals’ financial positions. We use difference-in-difference models in conjunction with event studies. Data come from individual-level birth certificates and state-level hospital discharge data. The results show little evidence that the expansions are associated with overall maternal morbidity or indicators of specific adverse events including eclampsia, ruptured uterus, and unplanned hysterectomy. The results are consistent with prior research showing that the ACA Medicaid expansions are not statistically associated with pre-pregnancy health or maternal health during pregnancy. Our results add to this story and find little evidence of improvements in maternal health upon delivery. |
| JEL: | H0 I1 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30770&r=hea |
| By: | Holger Strulik; Volker Grossmann |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a life cycle model in which health and longevity are threatened by infectious and chronic diseases. The model captures that the susceptibility and severity of infectious diseases depend on the accumulated health deficits (immunosenescence) and that the life history of infections affects the accumulation of chronic health deficits (inammaging). Individuals invest in their health to slow down health deficit accumulation and take measures to protect themselves from infectious diseases. We calibrate the model for an average American and explore how health expenditure, life expectancy, and the value of life depend on individual characteristics, medical technology, and the disease environment. We then use counterfactual computational experiments of the U.S. epidemiological transition 1860-2010 to show that the decline of infectious diseases caused a substantial decline of chronic diseases and contributed more to increasing life expectancy than advances in the treatment of chronic diseases. Finally, we use the model to investigate behaviour and long-term health outcomes in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. We predict that the pandemic will shorten the life expectancy of middle-aged people almost as much as that of older people because of inammaging and the self-productivity of health deficits. |
| Keywords: | health behaviour, infections, health deficits, longevity, epidemiological transition, Covid-19, immonuosenescence, inflammaging |
| JEL: | D15 I10 I12 J24 J26 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10141&r=hea |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha Trong; Le, Huong Thu; Connelly, Luke B.; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | Studies on health insurance coverage often rely on measures self-reported by respondents, but the accuracy of such measures has not been thoroughly validated. This paper is the first to use linked Australian National Health Survey and administrative population tax data to explore the accuracy of self-reported private health insurance (PHI) coverage in survey data. We find that 9% of individuals misreport their PHI coverage status, with 5% of true PHI holders reporting that they are uninsured and 16% of true non-insured persons self-identifying as insured. Our results show reporting errors are systematically correlated with individual and household characteristics. Our evidence on the determinants of errors is supportive of common reasons for misreporting. We directly investigate biases in the determinants of PHI enrolment using survey data. We find that, as compared to administrative data, survey data depict a quantitatively different picture of PHI enrolment determinants, especially those capturing age, language proficiency, labour force status or the number of children. We also show that PHI coverage misreporting is subsequently associated with misreporting of reasons for purchasing PHI, type of cover and length of cover. |
| Keywords: | Health Insurance; Measurement Error; Administrative Data; Survey Misreporting; Linked Data; Australia |
| JEL: | C8 C81 I1 I13 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115727&r=hea |
| By: | Zhang, Xin; Zhang, Xun; Liu, Yuehua; Zhao, Xintong; Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | This study is one of the first investigating the causal evidence of the morbidity costs of fine particulates (PM2.5) for all age cohorts in a developing country, using individual-level health spending data from a basic medical insurance program in Wuhan, China. Our instrumental variable (IV) approach uses thermal inversion to address potential endogeneity in PM2.5 concentrations and shows that PM2.5 imposes a significant impact on healthcare expenditures. The 2SLS estimates suggest that a 10 μg/m3 reduction in monthly average PM2.5 leads to a 2.36% decrease in the value of health spending and a 0.79% decline in the number of transactions in pharmacies and healthcare facilities. Also, this effect, largely driven by the increased spending in pharmacies, is more salient for males and children, as well as middle-aged and older adults. Moreover, our estimates may provide a lower bound to individuals' willingness to pay, amounting to CNY 43.87 (or USD 7.09) per capita per year for a 10 μg/m3 reduction in PM2.5. |
| Keywords: | air quality, health spending, willingness to pay, China |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 I11 I31 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1217&r=hea |
| By: | Matthew D. Eisenberg; Brendan Rabideau; Abby E. Alpert; Rosemary J. Avery; Jeff Niederdeppe; Neeraj Sood |
| Abstract: | There is much debate about the effects of pharmaceutical direct to consumer advertising (DTCA) on health care use. In this paper, we inform this debate by examining the effects of DTCA on office visits, as well as treatment courses resulting from those visits, for five common chronic conditions (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, depression, and osteoporosis). In particular, we examine whether office visits result in use of drug therapy and/or continued office visits over time. We test these questions by combining data on pharmaceutical advertising from Nielsen with claims data from 40 large national employers, covering 18 million person-years. We analyze a non-elderly population by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in advertising exposure across areas due to the implementation of Medicare prescription drug coverage which led to larger increases in advertising in areas with high elderly share of population compared to low elderly share areas. We find that advertising increases the number of office visits for the non-elderly for the advertised condition. We also find substantial spillovers -- a large share of the increased office visits from advertising are associated with use of non-advertised generic drugs or do not result in use of any drugs. Finally, we find that the increase in office visits due to DTCA is associated with continued engagement with a physician through multiple consecutive follow up visits over time. |
| JEL: | I10 I11 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30791&r=hea |
| By: | Kasser, Lea (University of Regensburg, CESifo and CEPR); Fischer, Mira (WZB Berlin and IZA); Valero, Vanessa (Loughborough University and CeDEx) |
| Abstract: | Mindfulness-based meditation practices are becoming increasingly popular in Western societies, including in the business world and in education. While the scientific literature has largely documented the benefits of mindfulness meditation for mental health, little is still known about potential spillovers of these practices on other important life outcomes, such as performance. We address this question through a field experiment in an educational setting. We study the causal impact of mindfulness meditation on academic performance through a randomized evaluation of a well-known 8-week mindfulness meditation training delivered to university students on campus. As expected, the intervention improves students' mental health and non-cognitive skills. However, it takes time before students' performance can benefit from mindfulness meditation: we find that, if anything, the intervention marginally decreases average grades in the short run, i.e., during the exam period right after the end of the intervention, whereas it significantly increases academic performance, by about 0.4 standard deviations, in the long run (ca. 6 months after the end of intervention). We investigate the underlying mechanisms and discuss the implications of our results. |
| Keywords: | performance; mental health; education; meditation; field experiment; |
| JEL: | I21 C93 I12 I31 |
| Date: | 2022–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:349&r=hea |
| By: | Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Rosenblum, Daniel (Dalhousie University) |
| Abstract: | The liberalization of the Indian economy in the 1990s led to an unprecedented increase in the availability of prenatal ultrasound technology. In this paper, we analyze the differential spread of ultrasound in India at the state level over a ten-year period (1999 to 2008) and the consequences for the prevalence of sex-selective abortion. Omitting the Southern Indian states, which had the fastest increase in ultrasound use and little sex selection, we find that higher levels of ultrasound use within a state are positively associated with the probability that a child is born male. This increased likelihood of having a male child is only found for children with no older brothers, i.e. births most likely to be affected by sex selection. The positive relationship between state-level ultrasound use and having a male child can be found across various subsamples: urban and rural, older and younger mothers, mothers with high and low education. The estimates are robust to including linear cohort-year time trends and prenatal health care controls. |
| Keywords: | ultrasound, technology adoption, gender discrimination, son preference, sex-selective abortion, India |
| JEL: | J13 J16 O1 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15838&r=hea |
| By: | Maria Noel Pi Alperin; Magali Perquin; Giordana Gastón |
| Abstract: | This paper uses long-term population projections to study the evolution of dementia in Luxembourg through 2070, as well as its impact on public expenditure through healthcare and long-term care. We extend the Giordana and Pi Alperin (2022) model by adding an algorithm to identify individuals suffering from dementia. This allows us to simulate dementia prevalence among individuals aged 50 and more in several scenarios incorporating alternative hypotheses about risk factors, new treatments and comorbidities (including long-run effects of COVID-19). Public health policies reducing stroke and hypertension risk could lower dementia prevalence by 17% and public expenditure on healthcare for dementia patients by a similar amount. A new treatment extending the mild dementia phase could nearly double prevalence and possibly triple the associated healthcare costs. Finally, past exposure to COVID-19 could raise prevalence by 12% to 24% in the medium term and public expenditure on dementia healthcare by 6% to 12%. Public expenditure on long-term care for dementia patients would increase even more, generally doubling by 2070. |
| Keywords: | Dementia; Luxembourg; Dynamic micro-simulation; SHARE; Healthcare; Health-related public expenditure; Long-term care |
| JEL: | D03 H30 I10 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2023-01&r=hea |
| By: | Murat Demirci (Department of Economics, Koç University); Andrew Foster (Department of Economics and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University); Murat Kırdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University, Bebek, Istanbul 34342, Turkey and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines disparities in health and nutrition among native and Syrian-refugee children in Turkey. With a view toward understanding the need for targeted programs addressing child well-being among the refugee population, we analyze, in particular, the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS). The TDHS is one of few data sets providing representative data on health and nutrition for a large refugee and native population. We find no evidence of a difference in infant or child mortality between refugee children born in Turkey and native children. However, refugee infants born in Turkey have lower birthweight and ageadjusted weight and height than native infants. When we account for a rich set of birth and socioeconomic characteristics that display substantial differences between natives and refugees, the gaps in birthweight and age-adjusted height persist, but the gap in age-adjusted weight disappears. Although refugee infants close the weight gap at the mean over time, the gap at the lower end of the distribution persists. The rich set of covariates we use explains about 35% of the baseline difference in birthweight and more than half of the baseline difference in current height. However, even after that, refugee infants’ average birthweight is 0.17 standard deviations (sd) lower and their current height is 0.23 sd lower. These gaps are even larger for refugee infants born prior to migrating to Turkey, suggesting that remaining deficits reflect conditions in the source country prior to migration rather than deficits in access to maternal and child health services within Turkey |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees, birthweight, anthropometric measures, forced displacement, Turkey |
| JEL: | J61 O15 F22 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2228&r=hea |
| By: | Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Dhillon, Amrita (King's College London); Roy, Sanchari (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the gendered dimensions of employment and mental health among urban informal-sector workers in India. First, we find that men's employment declined by 84 percentage points during pandemic relative to pre-pandemic employment, while their monthly earnings fell by 89 per cent relative to the baseline mean. In contrast, women did not experience any significant impact on employment during pandemic, as reported by their husbands. Second, we document very high levels of pandemic-induced mental stress, with wives reporting greater stress than husbands. Third, this gendered pattern in pandemic-induced mental stress is partly explained by men's employment losses, which affected wives more than husbands. In contrast, women staying employed during the pandemic is associated with worse mental health for them and their (unemployed) husbands. Fourth, pre-existing social networks are associated with higher mental stress for women relative to men, possibly due to the 'home-based' nature of women's networks. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, wage employment, mental health, social networks, gender, India |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J23 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15822&r=hea |
| By: | Mohajan, Devajit; Mohajan, Haradhan |
| Abstract: | This paper is to analyze Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) COVID-19 pandemic model. In this article, a modified SEIR model is constructed, and is also discussed various aspects of it with mathematical analysis to study the dynamic behavior of this model. The spread of this disease through immigration can be represented by the SEIR model. COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that spreads through talking, sneezing, coughing, and touching. In this model, there is an incubation period during the spread of the disease. During the gestation period, a patient is attacked by SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and shows symptoms of COVID-19, but cannot spread the disease. The horizontal transmission of COVID-19 worldwide can be represented and explained by SEIR model. Maximal control of the pandemic disease COVID-19 can be possible by the optimum vaccination policies. The study also investigates the equilibrium of the disease. In the study, a Lyapunov function is created to analyze the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The generation matrix method is analyzed to obtain the basic reproduction number and has discussed the global stability of COVID-19 spreading. |
| Keywords: | SEIR epidemic model, COVID-19 pandemic, Basic reproduction number, Immunity, Vaccinated, Latent period |
| JEL: | C3 C51 C53 C62 C68 I15 |
| Date: | 2022–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115858&r=hea |
| By: | Stefan Pollinger (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how to optimally combine contact tracing and social distancing to halt the transmission of a new infectious disease. It finds that the crucial tradeoff is between the intensity of the cost from control measures and health outcomes and the time the population needs to endure them. The optimum is a simple function of observables, which eases its implementation. Sufficiently stringent social distancing ensures consistently decreasing case numbers, such that contact tracing can gradually take over the control of the disease. The total cost of suppression depends critically on the efficiency of contact tracing since it determines how fast the policymaker can relax economic restrictions. A calibration to the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Singapore illustrates the theoretical results. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Suppression strategies, Contact tracing, Zero COVID |
| Date: | 2022–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03793909&r=hea |
| By: | Yinon Bar-On (Weizmann Institute of Science); Tanya Baron (Ben Gurion University); Ofer Cornfeld (BFI, Israel); Eran Yashiv (Tel Aviv University; London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | We present novel policy tools to manage epidemics. Rather than using prevalent population restrictions, these policy strategies are based on cyclical time restrictions. Key findings on the outcomes of such policy strategies include: a significant improvement of social welfare, substantially lessening the trade-offs between economic activity and health outcomes; optimally-derived timings of interventions are shown to suppress the disease, while maintaining reasonable economic activity; and outcomes are superior to the actual experience of New York State and Florida over the course of 2020. |
| Keywords: | epidemic/pandemic management, cyclical strategies, social planner, endogenous individual response, lockdown, time restrictions, positive analysis, policy frontier |
| JEL: | E23 E61 E65 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2220&r=hea |
| By: | Junichi Kikuchi; Ryoya Nagao; Yoshiyuki Nakazono |
| Abstract: | We examine how the COVID-19 contagion influences consumer expenditure patterns. We show that the consumption expenditure responses to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are significantly different between the older and younger generations. We find that older adults spend less than the younger generation by at least 5% during the pandemic. In fact, those aged above 60 significantly decrease their spending even on food and drink products by 13%. We also find that older adults forgo shopping in favor of the younger generation. These responses might be due to the fear of COVID-19 infection (Immordino et al., 2022). |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:31&r=hea |
| By: | Silvia Angerer; Daniela Glätzle-Rützler; Philipp Lergetporer; Thomas Rittmannsberger |
| Abstract: | Social norms affect a wide range of behaviors in society. We conducted a representative experiment to study how beliefs about the existing social norm regarding COVID-19 vaccination affect vaccination readiness. Beliefs about the norm are on average downward biased, and widely dispersed. Randomly providing information about the existing descriptive norm succeeds in correcting biased beliefs, thereby reducing belief dispersion. The information has no effect on vaccination readiness on average, which is due to opposite effects among women (positive) and men (negative). Fundamental differences in how women and men process the same information are likely the cause for these contrasting information effects. Control-group vaccination intentions are lower among women than men, so the information reduces polarization by gender. Additionally, the information reduces gendered polarization in policy preferences related to COVID-19 vaccination. |
| Keywords: | social norms, vaccination, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2022-20&r=hea |
| By: | Torsten Heinrich (Department of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology); Jangho Yang (Institute of New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Did the Covid-19 pandemic have an impact on innovation? Past economic disruptions, anecdotal evidence, and the previous literature suggest a decline with substantial differences between industries. We leverage USPTO patent application data to investigate and quantify the disturbance. We assess differences by field of technology (at the CPC subclass level) as well as the impact of direct and indirect relevance for the management of the pandemic. Direct Covid-19 relevance is identified from a keyword search of the patent application fulltexts; indirect Covid-19 relevance is derived from past CPC subclass to subclass citation patterns. We find that direct Covid-19 relevance is associated with a strong boost to the growth of the number of patent applications in the first year of the pandemic at the same order of magnitude (in percentage points) as the percentage of patents referencing Covid-19. We find no effect for indirect Covid-19 relevance, indicating a focus on applied research at the expense of more basic research. Fields of technology (CPC mainsections) have an additional significant impact, with, e.g., mainsections A (human necessities) and C (chemistry, metallurgy) having a strong performance. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Covid-19, Patent applications, Technological change |
| JEL: | I18 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep058&r=hea |