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on Health Economics |
| By: | Remi Yin (Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg); Anthony Lepinteur (Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg); Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Conchita D’ambrosio (Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We use annual data on over 150 countries between 2005 and 2018 to look at the relationship between subjective well-being (both cognitive and affective) and the Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI appears to be more closely related to cognitive than affective well-being. We also consider the relationships between the three HDI components (the Income, Health, and Education Indices) and well-being, and find that, on average, the Income Index has the strongest predictive power. Importantly, we find that the three HDI components only matter equally in Western and rich countries. Our analysis contributes to the discussion about cultural sensitivity in paradigms of societal development in two ways. We first show that differences in preferences toward development aims exist. Second, we propose a weighting procedure for a culturally-sensitive version of the HDI. |
| Keywords: | Human Development Index,Subjective well-being,Gallup World Poll,Country groups |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03467218&r= |
| By: | Michael L. Anderson; Minwoo Hyun; Jaecheol Lee |
| Abstract: | Though air-quality alert systems (AQAS) cover more than 1.7 billion people worldwide, there has been little welfare analysis of these systems. This paper presents a theoretical framework for deriving lower bounds on the net benefits of an AQAS and applies it to a South Korean system currently covering over 51 million people. Estimating a regression discontinuity design, we find that an alert issuance reduced youth respiratory expenditures by 30% and adult cardiovascular expenditures by 23%. The overall system reduced externalized health expenditures by 28.6 million dollars during 2016–2017, with a minimum benefit-cost ratio of 7.1:1. Including dynamic impacts of alerts increases the minimum benefits (benefit-cost ratio) to 36.7 million dollars (9.2:1). Our findings imply that the AQAS generates significant net benefits and suggests that manipulation of air quality data, which has been observed in other contexts, may negatively impact social welfare. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29637&r= |
| By: | Adrian Chadi; Manuel Hoffmann |
| Abstract: | Watching television is the most time-consuming human activity besides work but its role for individual well-being is unclear. Negative consequences portrayed in the literature raise the question whether this popular pastime constitutes an economic good or bad, and hence serves as a prime example of irrational behavior reducing individual health and happiness. Using rich panel data, we are the first to comprehensively address this question by exploiting a large-scale natural experiment in West Germany, where people in geographically restricted areas received commercial TV via terrestrial frequencies. Contrary to previous research, we find no health impact when TV consumption increases. For life satisfaction, we even find positive effects. Additional analyses support the notion that TV is not an economic bad and that non-experimental evidence seems to be driven by negative self-selection. |
| Keywords: | Health; Happiness; Well-being; Natural experiment; Television consumption; Time-use; Entertainment; CSPT; ArcGIS; Mass media |
| JEL: | C26 D12 I31 H12 J22 L82 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1148&r= |
| By: | Birgit Leimer (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Reyn Joris van Ewijk (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz) |
| Abstract: | Becoming a grandparent is one of the major life transitions experienced by older individuals. Using data from ten Western European countries, we show that grandparenthood on average leads to a reduction in well-being while hardly impacting physical, cognitive and mental health. Effects are heterogeneous, though. Reductions in well-being appear among those having less family contact and not providing child care. Those with the opposite profile – except grandmothers providing daily child care – experience some health improvements without reduced well-being. Well-being reductions are not driven by unwanted/unplanned children. Grandparenthood induces people to retire, but retirement seems no relevant channel for well-being and health effects. |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2201&r= |
| By: | Sylvie Blasco (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Le Mans Université, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Eva Moreno‐galbis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Jeremy Tanguy (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect on mental health of consecutive terrorist attacks in France in 2015 and 2016. We compile information about the three main terrorist attacks that struck France over this period and assess whether the potential effect on mental health (i.e., depression) of a terrorist attack is smoothed once people consider terrorist attacks as "the new normality." We exploit data from the French Constances epidemiological survey and combine an event study strategy with a difference-in-difference approach to compare before-after changes in mental health the year of the attack with the same changes the year before. We show that the negative effect of a terrorist attack on mental health decreases over time from one attack to another, and disappears completely for the last attack. Socio-demographic composition of the sample, geographical or socio-demographic proximity to the victims or media exposure do not arise as factors responsible for this changing effect of terrorist attacks on mental health. |
| Keywords: | difference-in-difference,event study,mental health,terrorism |
| Date: | 2021–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03516257&r= |
| By: | Claudia Senik (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, SU - Sorbonne Université); Guglielmo Zappalà (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Carine Milcent (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Chloé Gerves-Pinquié (IRSRPL - Institut Recherche en Santé Respiratoire des Pays de la Loire); Patricia Dargent-Molina (INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of adapted physical exercise programs in nursing homes, in which some residents suffer from dementia and/or physical limitations and other do not. We use data from 452 participants followed over 12 months in 32 retirement homes in four European countries. Using a difference-in-difference with individual random effects model, we show that the program has exerted a significant impact on the number of falls and the self-declared health and health-related quality of life of residents (EQ-5D). The wide scope of this study, in terms of sites, countries, and measured outcomes, brings generality to previously existing evidence. A simple computation, in the case of France, suggests that such programs are highly cost-efficient. |
| Keywords: | Physical activity,Retirement homes,Impact study,Subjective health,Falls |
| Date: | 2021–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03205172&r= |
| By: | Eric Bonsang; Joan Costa-Font; Sonja DeNew |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between locus of control (LOC) and the demand for supplementary health insurance. Drawing on longitudinal data from Germany, we find robust evidence that individuals having an internal LOC are more likely to take up supplementary private health insurance (SUPP). The increase in the probability to have a SUPP due to one standard deviation increase in the measure of internal LOC is equivalent to an increase in household income by 14 percent. Second, we find that the positive association between self-reported health and SUPP becomes small and insignificant when we control for LOC, suggesting that LOC might be an unobserved individual trait that can explain advantageous selection into SUPP. Third, we find comparable results using data from Australia, which enhances the external validity of our results. |
| Keywords: | Private health insurance, health care use, risk aversion, locus of control, positive selection, supplementary insurance, Germany, Australia |
| JEL: | I12 I13 I18 D15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1146&r= |
| By: | Ingo S. Seifert; Julia M. Rohrer; Boris Egloff; Stefan C. Schmukle |
| Abstract: | Several studies have suggested that the rank-order stability of personality increases until midlife and declines later in old age. However, this inverted U-shaped pattern has not consistently emerged in previous research; in particular, a recent investigation implementing several methodological advances failed to support it. To resolve the matter, we analyzed data from two representative panel studies and investigated how certain methodological decisions affect conclusions regarding the age trajectories of stability. The data came from Australia (N = 15,465; Study 1) and Germany (N = 21,777; Study 2), and each study included four waves of personality assessment. We investigated the life span development of the rank-order stability of the Big Five for 4-, 8-, and 12-year intervals. Whereas Study 1 provided strong evidence for an inverted U-shape with rank-order stability declining past age 50, Study 2 provided more mixed results that nonetheless generally supported the inverted U-shape. This developmental trend held for single personality traits as well as for the overall pattern across traits; and it held for all three retest intervals—both descriptively and in formal tests. Additionally, we found evidence that health-related changes accounted for the decline in rank-order stability in older age. This suggests that if analyses are implicitly conditioned on health (e.g., by excluding participants with missing data on later waves), the decline in stability in old age will be underestimated or even missed. Our results provide further evidence for the inverted U-shaped age pattern in personality stability development but also extend knowledge about the underlying processes. |
| Keywords: | personality development, rank-order stability, Big Five, panel studies, local structural equation modeling |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1156&r= |
| By: | Ferdi Botha (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research,The University of Melbourne); Peter Butterworth (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research,The University of Melbourne); Roger Wilkins (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research,The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | There are occasions when a very short assessment of mental health or distress is needed. The weekly assessment of distress in Australia during the COVID-19 crisis using the nationally representative Taking the Pulse of the Nation (TTPN) Survey is one example. This paper assesses the psychometric properties of a single-item measure of mental distress against the widely used six-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6). The analysis, based on wave 13 of the TTPN survey, considers data from 1,158 respondents selected from across Australia. The new single-item measure was highly correlated with the K6 (rho = 0.82), the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.93, and at the optimal cut-point the sensitivity was 0.71, the specificity was 0.93, and the proportion of respondents correctly classified by the single-item measure was 0.90. The measure of mental distress developed for the TTPN survey provides a valid measure of population mental distress for circumstances where only a single item can be used. |
| Keywords: | psychological distress, COVID-19, mental health, measurement |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2021n06&r= |
| By: | Ferdi Botha (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne); Viet H. Nguyen (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether there are gender differences in the effects of unemployment and sentiment on suicide rates. We apply linear and nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to monthly Australian data from February 1990 to September 2018. As expected, we find a positive relationship between the unemployment rate and suicide rate, and a negative relationship between consumer sentiment and the suicide rate. However, there is strong evidence of nonlinearity in the effects of both unemployment and sentiment on suicide rates, with substantial gender differences. For men, an increase in the unemployment rate significantly increases the suicide rate, but an unemployment decrease has no effect; we find the opposite for women. For men, an increase in sentiment tends to have stronger effects on the suicide rate than a decrease in sentiment. Again, we observe the opposite effect for women. Among components of sentiment, forward-looking expectations are stronger predictors of suicide rates than components relating to present conditions. We also find that sentiment has a much stronger effect on male suicide rates than on female suicide rates. |
| Keywords: | Suicide rate, unemployment rate, consumer sentiment, Australia, asymmetry |
| JEL: | C22 E24 E70 I10 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2021n15&r= |
| By: | Michael Baker (University of Toronto [Scarborough, Canada]); Janet Currie (Princeton University); Boriana Miloucheva (University of Toronto [Scarborough, Canada]); Hannes Schwandt (Northwestern University [Evanston]); Josselin Thuilliez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This study provides comparisons of inequalities in mortality between the United States, Canada and France using the most recent available data. The period between 2010 and 2018 saw increases in mortality and in inequality in mortality for most age and gender groups in the United States. The main exceptions were children under 5 and adults over 65. In contrast, Canada saw a further flattening of mortality gradients in most groups, as well as further declines in overall mortality. The sole exception was Canadian women over 80 years old, who saw small increases in mortality rates. France saw continuing improvements in mortality rates in all groups. Both Canada and France have distributions of mortality that are much more equal than those in the United States, demonstrating the importance of public policy in the achievement of equality in health. |
| Keywords: | age-specific mortality,Canada,France,mortality inequality,United States |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03214607&r= |
| By: | Guyonne Kalb (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne | Life Course Centre | Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)); Ha Vu (Deakin Business School, Deakin University) |
| Abstract: | Many women who give birth during their teenage years face lifetime disadvantages in health, social and economic domains. To develop effective policies to support these teenage mothers, it is important to understand how the disadvantage evolves over time to target the timing of any interventions. This paper focuses on health outcomes and seeks to determine the role of teenage motherhood and the likely channels through which teenage motherhood may contribute to health disparities across different life stages between teenage mothers and other women. Using household panel survey data and fixed-effects regressions that control for the effects of prior disadvantage, we show that teenage motherhood is negatively associated with all domains of health and that impacts worsen in later life stages. Potential mediators, including health behaviours, family, social support, education and economic factors are investigated and these partly explain mental health outcomes, reducing the direct impact of teenage motherhood, but not physical health. The strongest pathways are through social support, family and economic outcomes. Our results suggest boosting social support and addressing economic disadvantage may improve mental health outcomes for teenage mothers. |
| Keywords: | teenage motherhood, mental health, physical health, longitudinal analysis |
| JEL: | I14 I31 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2021n01&r= |
| By: | Lisa Cameron (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne); Claire Chase (World Bank Water Global Practice); Diana Contreras Suarez (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Poor household water supply and sanitation can affect maternal and newborn health outcomes through several pathways, including the quality of drinking water consumed by pregnant woman and exposure to harmful fecal pathogens in the environment due to poor quality sanitation. Using data on 14,098 pregnancies across four rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), we investigate the relationship between water and sanitation and outcomes along the course of a pregnancy - health and complications during pregnancy, probability of a miscarriage, complications during child birth, probability of live birth, and neonatal outcomes including birth weight and newborn survival rates. After controlling for confounding factors, we find that access to at least basic household sanitation is strongly associated with substantially decreased overall risk during pregnancy and birth. Whether or not a household has access to at least basic sanitation is strongly significantly associated with a lower probability of miscarriage and is a strong predictor of high fever during labor (an indicator of infection). We find no systematic association between household access to basic water and maternal and newborn outcomes. We also find no evidence of herd protection resulting from high levels of sanitation within the community. |
| Keywords: | Sanitation, water, maternal health, neonatal health, Indonesia, developing countries |
| JEL: | I15 Q59 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2021n14&r= |
| By: | Haile, Beliyou; Azzarri, Carlo; Ahn, Hee Eun |
| Abstract: | This document summarizes published and grey literature on conceptual framework on the link between child nutrition and economic growth, determinants of child undernutrition, types of investments to enhance maternal and child nutrition, and linkages between urbanization and child nutrition. Several in-sights emerge from the review. First, and despite progresses over the last several decades, maternal and child malnutrition is still prevalent in developing countries and the progress has been uneven. While the percentage of chronically malnourished (stunted) children declined across the developing world, the number of stunted children in Africa increased due to slower reduction in stunting prevalence and population growth. Many developing countries are experiencing the coexistence of different forms of malnutrition including undernutrition, micronutrient deficiency, and overnutrition. Second, child undernutrition, especially stunting during the first 1,000 days of life, has several short- and long-term effects on individuals and economies that include impaired cognitive and non-cognitive development, poor educational performance, low productivity and earnings, and higher healthcare costs. Third, the determinants of child undernutrition are broadly classified as the immediate determinants including dietary intake and diseases; the underlying determinants that include household food security, quality of care and household living environment, and access to healthcare; and the basic determinants that include access to productive resources, stock of capital, as well as socioeconomic, political and cultural factors. Investments to enhance child nutrition can target either the immediate determinants (known as nutrition-specific investments) or the underlying determinants (known as nutrition-sensitive investments). Fourth, the effect of urbanization on child nutrition is mostly determined by the extent to which urban settlements offer their residents with better economic opportunities (e.g., better paying jobs and markets for nutritious food) and services (e.g., healthier living environments). Fifth, given the multilayer causes of child undernutrition, a multi-sectoral approach is needed to address the various determinants of undernutrition to improve maternal nutrition, promote optimal infant and young child feeding practices, enhance household food security, as well as improve healthy living environment and access to quality health care. |
| Keywords: | WORLD, investment, poverty, income, economic growth, nutrition, child nutrition, child health, malnutrition, stunting, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifpmcc:6&r= |
| By: | Kushneel Prakash (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne); Sanjesh Kumar (Department of Economics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between parental smoking in childhood and the probability of being employed in adulthood. To do so, we use 18 waves of the nationally representative longitudinal data from the Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. We find that parental smoking in childhood is an important factor contributing to the likelihood of individuals being unemployed in adulthood. Our estimate suggests that individuals whose parents smoked during their childhood have 1.7 percentage points lower probability of being employed in adulthood than individuals of non-smoking parents. This finding is robust to the use of bounding approach to test for coefficient stability and matching methods to attribute causal interpretation. We find that self-health and mental health, along with non-cognitive skills in the form of emotional stability and conscientiousness in adulthood are important channels through which exposure to parental smoking in childhood influences the probability of employment in adulthood. |
| Keywords: | Early-life experiences, Childhood, Parental smoking, Employment, Australia |
| JEL: | D10 I10 J21 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2021n13&r= |
| By: | CARBALLA SMICHOWSKI Bruno (European Commission – JRC); DUCH BROWN Nestor (European Commission – JRC); MARTENS Bertin (European Commission – JRC) |
| Abstract: | We present a novel generic theoretical framework to analyze the incentives agents have to engage in n-way data sharing or ‘data pooling’ and the factors affecting those incentives. Based on the results obtained, we provide policy recommendations aimed at fostering health data pooling. Section 1 develops a baseline framework and multiple variations including zero-sum data pooling games, competing pools and intra-pool negative externalities. The section offers analytical solutions and examples to show under which conditions agents decide to pool data. Section 2 illustrates how different factors can lead to sub-optimal data pooling. Section 3 provides policy recommendations to foster data pooling in the health sector and discusses the conditions under which they can be effective. |
| Keywords: | data pool, health data, data sharing |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:decwpa:202106&r= |
| By: | Ou Yang (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Jongsay Yong (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Yuting Zhang (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Anthony Scott (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | We quantify competition in Australia's residential aged care sector and study how competition is associated with quality of care and prices in the sector. Competition is defined three ways: the number of competitors within a 10 km radius of a facility; the distance (in km) to the third closest competing facility; and Herfindahl-Hirschman index based on market share of facilities within 10 km. We further examine whether quality and price differ by ownership types (government owned, for profit, and not for profit), after controlling for competition. We find that more competition is not associated with better quality or lower prices. Governmentowned facilities, in comparison to for-profit and not-for-profit facilities, are found to provide higher quality in some domains but not in others, yet tend to charge lower prices than other ownership types. The results indicate the possibility of market failures in aged care. Two key sources of market failures, the lack of public reporting of quality of care and price transparency, should be addressed as policy priorities before competition can work in residential aged care markets. |
| Keywords: | Nursing home competition, Aged care quality, Aged care prices, Australia |
| JEL: | I11 I18 L80 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2021n02&r= |
| By: | Max Schroeder; Spyridon Lazarakis; Rebecca Mancy; Konstantinos Angelopoulos |
| Abstract: | The risk of recurrent outbreaks following the main waves of a pandemic has been acknowledged. We provide evidence of the scale and duration of this outbreak risk. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main pandemic waves of two historical pandemics across multiple locations. For the 1890-91 influenza pandemic in England and Wales, as well as the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the US and eight major UK cities, we find elevated mortality risk that persists for nearly two decades. The generality of the findings suggests that, without modern means of intervention, post-pandemic outbreak risk is likely to persist for an extended period, as we demonstrate in an application to COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | pandemics, outbreak risk, influenza, Covid-19, archive data |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9475&r= |
| By: | Ferdi Botha (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne | ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course); John P. de New (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne | ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course) |
| Abstract: | This is the first paper to present novel findings on how simultaneously (a) labour market shocks and (b) infections in the household, directly due to COVID-19, have impacted on life satisfaction and domain satisfactions. Using data from a world-wide online survey of almost 5,700 respondents across six countries, we estimate the associations of COVID-19-related labour market shocks and COVID-19 infection with life satisfaction and a range of domain satisfactions. Directly due to COVID-19, experiencing either (i) a reduction in salary and working hours, or (ii) unemployment or filing for unemployment benefits is significantly associated with lower reported satisfaction with family life, family health, available health services, and finances. The relationship is especially large for financial satisfaction. Reporting any COVID-19 labour market shock is also related to lower life satisfaction. Persons in households that have experienced a COVID-19 infection report significantly lower satisfaction with life, health, family life, and finances. Noteworthy is that labour market shocks are much more important in explaining subjective well-being compared to COVID-19 infections. The findings highlight the wide range of subjective well-being domains adversely affected by shocks to the labour market and health brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; coronavirus; labour market shocks; subjective well-being |
| JEL: | I10 I31 J65 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2020n14&r= |
| By: | Karaivanov, Alexander (Simon Fraser University); Kim, Dongwoo (Simon Fraser University); Lu, Shih En (Simon Fraser University); Shigeoka, Hitoshi (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of government mandated proof of vaccination requirements for access to public venues and non-essential businesses on COVID-19 vaccine uptake. We find that the announcement of a mandate is associated with a rapid and significant surge in new vaccinations (more than 60% increase in weekly first doses) using the variation in the timing of these measures across Canadian provinces in a differencein-differences approach. Time-series analysis for each province and for France, Italy and Germany corroborates this finding, and we estimate cumulative gains of up to 5 percentage points in provincial vaccination rates and 790,000 or more first doses for Canada as a whole as of October 31, 2021 (5 to 13 weeks after the provincial mandate announcements). We also find large vaccination gains in France (3 to 5 mln first doses), Italy (around 6 mln) and Germany (around 3.5 mln) 11 to 16 weeks after the proof of vaccination mandate announcements. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, vaccine mandates, proof of vaccination, vaccine uptake, vaccine hesitancy, difference-in-differences, time-series analysis, counterfactuals |
| JEL: | I18 I12 C23 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14946&r= |
| By: | Brotherhood, Luiz; Kircher, Philipp (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Santos, Cezar; Tertilt, Michele |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the importance of the age composition in the Covid-19 pandemic. We augment a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices on work and non-work social distancing. Infected individuals are initially uncertain unless they are tested. We find that older individuals socially distance themselves substantially in equilibrium. An optimal lockdown then confines the young more. The strictness and economic costs of the optimal lockdown depend on whether or not individuals can telework. Testing and quarantines save lives, even if conducted just on the young. When some testing is available, the optimal lockdown is much lighter and GDP rises even compared with a no-policy benchmark. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 ; testing ; social distancing ; age ; age-specific policies |
| JEL: | E17 C63 D62 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2021034&r= |
| By: | Andrew Clark (Paris School of Economics); Conchita D'Ambrosio (University of Luxembourg); Anthony Lepinteur (University of Luxembourg); Giorgia Menta (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We use data from the COME-HERE panel survey collected by the University of Luxembourg to assess the effects of COVID-19 policy responses on disposable incomes in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden between January 2020 and October 2021. Policy responses are measured by the Stringency and Economic Support Indices from the Oxford COVID-19 Government-Response Tracker. Controlling for the evolution of the pandemic itself, we find that the income cost of greater stringency measures is borne only by the most economically-vulnerable, while government economic-support measures have a positive effect across the income distribution. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Income losses, Lockdown policies, Economic support policies |
| JEL: | I18 I32 H24 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2022-600&r= |
| By: | Loïc Berger (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nicolas Berger (LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Valentina Bosetti (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]); Itzhak Gilboa (HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales); Lars Hansen (Booth School of Business [Chicago] - University of Chicago); Christopher Jarvis (LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Massimo Marinacci (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]); Richard Smith (University of Exeter Medical School - University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process. |
| Keywords: | model uncertainty,ambiguity,robustness,decision rules |
| Date: | 2021–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02907328&r= |
| By: | Ferdi Botha (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne | ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course); John P. de New (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne | ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course); Sonja C. de New (ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course Centre for Health Economics; Monash University RWI Research Network Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)); David C. Ribar (Department of Economics, Georgia State University; Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)); Nicolás Salamanca (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, University of Melbourne; ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)) |
| Abstract: | Using an online survey of Australian residents, we elicit the potential impacts of COVID-19 related labour market shocks on a validated measure of financial wellbeing. Experiencing a reduction in hours and earnings, entering into unemployment or having to file for unemployment benefits during the pandemic are strongly and significantly associated with decreases in financial wellbeing of around 29% or 18 points on the financial wellbeing scale of 0-100, despite various government measures to reduce such effects. Unconditional quantile regression analyses indicate that the negative COVID-19 labour market effects are felt the most by people in the lowest percentiles of the financial wellbeing distribution. Counterfactual distributional analyses and distribution regression indicate a shifting of the financial wellbeing distribution leftwards brought on by those suffering any of the above-mentioned labour market shocks, indicating potential dramatic increases in financial wellbeing disadvantage and inequality. |
| Keywords: | Financial wellbeing, COVID-19, unemployment, earnings reduction, inequality |
| JEL: | D63 G51 J65 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2020n15&r= |