|
on Health Economics |
| By: | Jason Abaluck; Leila Agha; David C. Chan Jr; Daniel Singer; Diana Zhu |
| Abstract: | The application of machine learning (ML) to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can quantify and improve misallocation in healthcare. We study the decision to prescribe anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation patients; anticoagulation reduces stroke risk but increases hemorrhage risk. We combine observational data on treatment choice and guideline use with ML estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects from eight RCTs. When physicians adopt a clinical guideline, treatment decisions shift towards the recommendation but adherence remains far from perfect. Improving guideline adherence would produce larger gains than informing physicians about guidelines. Adherence to an optimal rule would prevent 47% more strokes without increasing hemorrhages. |
| JEL: | I11 I18 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27467&r=all |
| By: | Joseph J. Doyle Jr. |
| Abstract: | Measuring physician quality is fundamental to understanding healthcare productivity, yet patient sorting can confound attempts to estimate the types of physicians that improve survival. This paper aims to overcome selection bias by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the mix of physicians available to treat patients when they are admitted to the hospital via the emergency department. One innovation is the construction of proxy measures for the types of physicians available using 100% Medicare claims data. Physician characteristics considered include specialty training, medical school quality rankings, sex, years of experience, and patient volume. The main finding is that when heart failure patients enter the hospital when more cardiologists are available, they are more likely to be treated directly by a cardiologist, have more invasive procedures, and survive over the following year. |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27458&r=all |
| By: | Brilli, Ylenia (University of Verona); Lucifora, Claudio (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Russo, Antonio (Agency for Health Protection of Milan); Tonello, Marco (Catholic University Milan) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of a vaccination program providing free flu vaccine to individuals aged 65 or more on take-up behavior and hospitalization. Using both administrative and survey data, we implement a regression discontinuity design around the threshold at age 65, and find that the effect of the program on take-up ranges between 70% and 90% of the average vaccination rate for individuals aged less than 65. We show that this effect is not entirely driven by an income channel, but also depends on the expected benefits of vaccination. The analysis on health outcomes shows that the program reduces the likelihood of emergency hospitalization. |
| Keywords: | public health, influenza, vaccination, health prevention policies |
| JEL: | I12 I18 J10 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13546&r=all |
| By: | Toren L. Fronsdal; Jay Bhattacharya; Suzanne Tamang |
| Abstract: | We study a unique all-payer data set spanning 38 states to examine the differences in inpatient reimbursement rates paid by traditional Medicare (TM), Medicare Advantage (MA), Medicaid, and private (under-65) insurers, and the differences in negotiated rates across the 60 largest private insurers. After controlling for enrollee and hospital mix, we find that private insurers pay 37 percent more than TM, and MA pays 10 percent more than TM for the five most common inpatient diagnoses. The correlation in risk-adjusted payments by private insurers and by TM at the same hospital for the same diagnosis is only 0.10. There is significant variation in negotiated prices within and across private payers. Among the five largest US insurers, the most expensive insurer negotiates prices that are 5-26 percent higher than the mean price for the 20 most common inpatient diagnoses. Additionally, we find a 10 percent increase in insurer market share corresponds to a 7 percent decrease in inpatient negotiated prices and a 10 percent decrease in the standard deviation of prices. This finding suggests that increased insurer market power allows payers to negotiate prospective payment contracts – rather than the more common fee-for-service payments – thereby offloading financial risk to providers. |
| JEL: | G22 I11 I13 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27490&r=all |
| By: | Elena Falcettoni |
| Abstract: | Primary care physicians (PCPs) provide more specialty procedures in less-urban areas, where specialists are fewer. Using a structural random-coefficient model and the demographic and time variation in the data, this paper shows that changes in policy-set reimbursements lead to a reallocation of the suddenly-more-remunerative procedures away from specialists and toward PCPs, and this effect is stronger, the more rural an area is. A reimbursement-unit increase for a given procedure leads to outside-metro PCPs gaining 7-15% market share more than metro PCPs in that procedure, at the expense of specialists. Small metropolitan areas and very rural areas are the most affected. |
| Keywords: | Primary care physicians; Specialists; Specialty procedures; Rural; Reallocation; Medicare; Fee-for-service |
| JEL: | I18 I13 J20 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-63&r=all |
| By: | Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt |
| Abstract: | Without the opioid epidemic, American life expectancy would not have declined in recent years. In turn, the epidemic was sparked by the development and marketing of a new generation of prescription opioids and provider behavior is still helping to drive it. There is little relationship between the opioid crisis and contemporaneous measures of labor market opportunity. Cohorts and areas that experienced poor labor market conditions do show lagged increases in opioid mortality, but the effect is modest relative to the scale of the epidemic. Instead, we argue that there are specific policies and features of the U.S. health care market that led to the current crisis. It will not be possible to quickly reverse depressed economic conditions, but it is possible to implement policies that would reduce the number of new opioid addicts and save the lives of many of those who are already addicted. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27544&r=all |
| By: | Kettlewell, Nathan (University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | I evaluate the accuracy of people's subjective probability expectations for using various health services. Subjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. At the same time, observable characteristics like age and health are weakly predictive of service demand. Through a series of examples, I demonstrate how subjective expectations can provide new insights about health behavior, specifically in the areas of asymmetric information, moral hazard and estimating welfare attributable to private care. The findings support collecting subjective expectations about health services in household surveys for use in applied research. |
| Keywords: | subjective expectations, beliefs, subjective probabilities, health insurance, healthcare demand |
| JEL: | D82 D84 I11 I12 I13 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13445&r=all |
| By: | Joseph P. Newhouse |
| Abstract: | I look at prevention through an economic lens and make three main points. First, those advocating preventive measures are often asked how much money a given measure saves. This question is misguided. Rather preventive measures can be thought of as insurance, with a certain cost in the present that may or may not pay off in the future. In fact, although most medical preventive measures improve expected health, they do not save money. Various lifestyle and early childhood interventions, however, may both save money and improve health. Second, preventive measures, including medical and lifestyle measures, are heterogeneous in their value, both across measures and, within measure, across individuals. As a result, generalizations in everyday discourse about the value of prevention can be overly broad. Third, health insurance coverage for medical preventive measures should generally be more extensive than coverage for the treatment of a medical condition, though full coverage of preventive services is not necessarily optimal. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27553&r=all |
| By: | Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger |
| Abstract: | The fetal origins hypothesis has received considerable empirical support, both within epidemiology and economics. The present study compares the ability of two rival theoretical frameworks in accounting for the kind of path dependence implied by the fetal origins hypothesis. We argue that while the conventional health capital model is irreconcilable with fetal origins of late-in-life health outcomes, the more recent health deficit model can generate shock amplification consistent with the hypothesis. In order to discuss human health over the life cycle from conception to death, we develop a theory of ontogenetic growth in utero and during childhood, unify it with the theory of adult aging, and discuss the transmission of early-life shocks to late-life health deficit accumulation. |
| Keywords: | Fetal Origins,Health Capital,Health Deficits,Ontogenetic Growth,In Utero Development |
| JEL: | I10 J13 D91 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:400&r=all |
| By: | Sebastian O.Schneider (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn); Matthias Sutter (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn; University of Cologne, IZA Bonn, CESifo Munich & University of Innsbruck) |
| Abstract: | We use a novel method to elicit and measure higher order risk preferences (prudence and temperance) in an experiment with 658 adolescents. In line with theoretical predictions, we find that higher order risk preferences - particularly prudence - are strongly related to adolescents' field behavior, including their financial decision making, eco-friendly behavior, and health status, including addictive behavior. Most importantly, we show that dropping prudence and temperance from the analysis of students' field behavior would yield largely misleading conclusions about the relation of risk aversion to these domains of field behavior. Thus our paper puts previous work that ignored higher order risk preferences into an encompassing perspective and clarifies which orders of risk preferences can help understand field behavior of adolescents. |
| Keywords: | Higher order risk preferences, prudence, temperance, risk aversion, field behavior, adolescents, health, addictive behavior, smartphone addiction, experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D81 D91 J13 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:026&r=all |
| By: | Daza, Sebastian; palloni, alberto |
| Abstract: | Despite substantial research, drivers of the widening gap in life expectancy between rich and poor in the U.S. -- the so-called longevity gap -- remain unknown. Recent research has suggested that contextual income mobility (e.g., county-level socioeconomic mobility) may play an essential role in explaining the longevity gap. Previous studies -- based mostly on aggregate and cross-sectional individual data -- show an association between county income mobility and county mortality and individual's health. However, inferring individual effects from aggregate (county-level) data can be problematic (i.e., ecological fallacy), and measuring exposure to income mobility using the county where respondents currently live or die, might overlook the selection process associated with residential mobility. This paper aims to extend previous research by estimating the effect of average exposure to mobility regimes during childhood and adolescence on adult health using longitudinal data and accounting for selection into counties over time (i.e., residential mobility). We use both the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) with geocoded data to assess the link between county-level income mobility (Chetty's estimates), behaviors (smoking) and health conditions and status (self-reported health, BMI, depressive symptoms). Furthermore, we use cohorts optimally match Chetty's estimates of income mobility in the U.S. (1980-1982) and account for selection and time-varying confounders using marginal structural models (MSM). Overall, we provide a more precise test of the hypothesis that childhood exposure to income mobility regimes may determine health status through behavior (i.e., smoking) later in life and contribute to longevity gaps. |
| Date: | 2020–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5fdzs&r=all |
| By: | Gazze, Ludovica (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | I study the determinants of childhood lead screening using all Illinois birth records (2001-2014), matched to lead testing records and geocoded housing age data. Housing age measures lead risk, as older houses disproportionally have lead paint. Changes in providers’ availability, inferred from testing data, provide variation in non-monetary costs of testing. Travel costs reduce screening among low- and high-risk households alike. Thus, self-selection based on travel costs does not appear to improve targeting, even though high-risk households are willing to pay $29-389 more than low-risk households for screening. Screening incentives would be cost-effective for reasonable values of lead poisoning externalities. JEL codes: I1 ; Q52 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1301&r=all |
| By: | Gazze, Ludovica (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Several states require owners to mitigate lead hazards in old houses with children present. I estimate the mandates’ effects on housing markets. My empirical strategy exploits differences by state, year, and housing vintage. The mandates decrease the prices of old houses by 7.1 percent, acting as a large tax on owners. Moreover, families with children become 11.3 percent less likely to live in old houses. Increases in rents for family-friendly houses suggest that the mandates have important distributional consequences. These findings are relevant for evaluating similar mandates such as healthy homes standards. |
| Keywords: | Mandates ; Health Hazards ; Housing Quality JEL codes: I18 ; Q52 ; R21 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1302&r=all |
| By: | Constant, Amelie F.; Milewski, Nadja |
| Abstract: | The Healthy Immigrant Paradox found in the literature by comparing the health of immigrants to that of natives in the host country, may suffer from serious cultural biases. Our study evades such biases by utilizing a destination-origin framework, in which we compare the health of emigrants to that of their compatriots who stay in the country of origin. Isolating cultural effects can best gauge self-selection and host country effects on the health of emigrants with longer time abroad. We study both the physical and mental dimensions of health among European-born emigrants over 50, who originate from seven European countries and now live elsewhere in Europe. We use the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and apply multi-level modeling. Regarding the physical health we find positive self-selection, beneficial adaptation effects, and effects from other observables for some but not all countries. With the notable exception of the German émigrés, we cannot confirm selection in mental health, while additional years abroad have only weak effects. Overall, living abroad has some favorable effects on the health of older emigrants. The economic similarity of countries and the free intra-European mobility mitigate the need for initial self-selection in health and facilitate the migration experience abroad. |
| Keywords: | panel data,physical health,mental health,older population,emigrants,multi-level models,Europe |
| JEL: | C23 F22 J11 J14 J15 J61 I12 I14 O52 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:643&r=all |
| By: | Philipp Ager; James J. Feigenbaum; Casper Worm Hansen; Hui Ren Tan |
| Abstract: | Fears of immigrants as a threat to public health have a long and sordid history. At the turn of the 20th century, when millions of immigrants crowded into dense American cities, contemporaries blamed the high urban mortality penalty on the newest arrivals. Nativist sentiments eventually led to the implementation of restrictive quota acts in the 1920s, substantially curtailing immigration. We capture the "missing immigrants" induced by the quotas to estimate the effect of immigration on mortality. We find that cities with more missing immigrants experienced sharp declines in deaths from infectious diseases from the mid-1920s until the late 1930s. The blame for these negative mortality effects lies not with the immigrants, but on the living conditions they endured. We show that mortality declines were largest in cities where immigrants resided in the most crowded and squalid conditions and where public health resources were stretched the thinnest. Though immigrants did die from infectious diseases at higher rates than the US-born, the mortality decline we find is primarily driven by crowding not changes in population composition or contagion, as we show mortality improvements for both US- and foreign-born populations in more quota-affected cities. |
| JEL: | I14 J15 N32 N92 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27480&r=all |
| By: | Jolivet, Grégory (University of Bristol); Postel-Vinay, Fabien (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a joint dynamic analysis of individual labor market and mental health outcomes. We allow for a two-way interaction between work and mental health. We model selection in and out of employment as well as between jobs on a labor market with search frictions, where we account for the level of exposure to stress in each job using data on occupational health contents. We estimate our model on British data from Understanding Society combined with information from O*NET. We produce structural estimates of health dynamics as a function of job characteristics and of the effects of health and of job stress content on labor market decisions. We use our model to quantify the effects of job loss or health shocks that can propagate over the life cycle through both health and work channels. We also estimate the (large) values workers attach to health, employment or non-stressful jobs. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of structural labor market changes by evaluating the impact on health, employment and inequality of changes in the distribution of job health contents. |
| Keywords: | mental health, job search, life cycle |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13518&r=all |
| By: | N. Meltem Daysal; Michael F. Lovenheim; Nikolaj Siersbæk; David N. Wasser |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of housing price changes on fertility and early-life child health in Denmark. Using rich population register data among women aged 20-44 who own a home, we find that for each 100,000 DKK increase in home prices (equivalent to $12,000), the likelihood of giving birth increases by 0.27 percentage points or 2.32%. These estimates are similar to findings from the US per dollar of home price change, which is surprising given the strong pro-natalist policies and generous government programs in Denmark. We also present the first estimates of the effect of home prices on infant health. Our findings indicate that housing price increases lead to better child health at birth in terms of low birth weight and prematurity, however most of these effects reflect changes in the composition of births. There is no evidence of an effect on health during the first five years of life. These findings are consistent with a lack of credit constraints among homeowner families and with both children and child health being normal goods that are similarly-valued in the US and Denmark. |
| JEL: | I12 J13 R21 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27469&r=all |
| By: | Richard H. Rijnks (Univesity of Groningen); Stephen Sheppard (Williams College) |
| Abstract: | Recent research indicates that the subjective evaluation of well-being increases when conditions of housing are improved. This suggests that subjective well-being might serve as a useful proxy for characteristics of a home or neighbourhood that are relevant to an occupant, but unobserved by the analyst. In this paper, we assess this idea through analysis of residential property valuation, using a sample of 95,413 respondents matched to house sales for 2000 to 2012 in the North of the Netherlands. Using a spatial econometric approach, we find a significant and positive association between individual and regional subjective well-being and house prices. This suggests that house buyers are willing to pay more for, or that house sellers require greater compensation to sell and move from, properties and areas in which the resident experiences greater happiness. Our study provides the first estimates of the importance of these effects. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being, house price, hedonic model |
| JEL: | D91 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2020–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2020-09&r=all |
| By: | Monica Deza; Johanna Catherine Maclean; Keisha T. Solomon |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of local access to office-based mental healthcare on crime. We leverage variation in the number of mental healthcare offices within a county over the period 1999 to 2014 in a two-way fixed-effects model. We find that increases in the number of mental healthcare offices modestly reduce crime. In particular, ten additional offices in a county reduces crime by 1.7 crimes per 10,000 residents. These findings suggest an unintended benefit from expanding the office-based mental healthcare workforce: reductions in crime. |
| JEL: | I1 I11 K42 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27619&r=all |
| By: | Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Piracha, Matloob (University of Kent); Wang, Ben (Macquarie University, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Older people experience high rates of depression and suicide, yet they make a positive net contribution to the economy through activities such as employment, volunteering, and looking after grandchildren. The wellbeing of older people is therefore important not only on moral but also economic grounds. To understand which policies will facilitate the overall wellbeing, we use Australian data to explore the determinants of wellbeing and loneliness of natives and migrants in the 65-85 age group, taking into account the extent to which social networks contribute to the wellbeing and possible reduction in loneliness. Results show that social networks have a strong positive effect on wellbeing and a strong effect in reducing loneliness among both natives and migrants. The positive effect of social networks is stronger for females than males. |
| Keywords: | ageing, wellbeing, loneliness, social networks |
| JEL: | I31 J14 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13527&r=all |
| By: | John A. Tauras; Megan C. Diaz; Barbara Schillo; Donna Vallone |
| Abstract: | The rapid rise in e-cigarette use rates among high school students in the United States is a significant source of public policy concern for many states. This paper is the first study to examine the impact of state tobacco control spending on the demand for vaping products by high school students. The findings from this study provide strong evidence that funding for state tobacco control programs is associated with reduced vaping among youth and young adults in the US. These findings could help to inform decision making about how states should allocate scarce public resources. |
| JEL: | D12 H75 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27539&r=all |
| By: | Cristian Dan (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania,) |
| Abstract: | The consumption of drugs has remained a long term issue of a significant importance, due to the fact that the substances which accelerate the production of endorphins at the neocortex level present an extended effect or even a definitive one in regards of the cognitive-emotional capacity of the consumer. This kind of practice is not absent in Romania, the number of persons taking in these type of elements showing a significant growth in the last 20 years. The current paperwork will largely focus on analyzing the factors which bring contribution to the distribution and consumption of drugs, especially in schools, and how they affect the social, cultural, cognitive and psychological evolution of the normal person. In the same manner, the article will bring into attention the current legislation of Romania in accordance with this subject, the methods used for prevention and tackling with the phenomenon of illegal substances and the support brought by the dispositions applied at the European Union level. At the end, a series of conclusions will have the main goals of correlating the Romanian legislation with the European one and to shed light upon the methods offered by the educational system in order to stop the accelerated spread of this vice between the students and the sanctions applied. |
| Keywords: | drugs, legislation, psychology, tackling, European Union, sanctions, school, trafficking |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:spaper:018dc&r=all |
| By: | Madeleine Besson (LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne, MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School); Patricia Gurviez (GENIAL - Ingénierie, Procédés, Aliments - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech); Julia Carins (Griffith University [Brisbane]) |
| Abstract: | When fighting the burden of overweight and obesity, diet remains a powerful preventive factor. The aim of this study is to stimulate more efficient interventions on diet change by synthesising knowledge of previous weight loss programs based on the use of digital devices. Following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses approach, a systematic literature review through five databases was undertaken focused on the assessment of studies oriented towards diet change that incorporating digital devices including computers, tablets, mobile phones, portable and non-portable tracking devices. Fifteen empirical studies (2004 to 2018) were identified and examined for efficacy, and presence of theory and behaviour change techniques. Digital devices supporting weight loss programs have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years, from reminders using the short message system to self-quantification through mobile applications. Nine studies show a significant difference between conditions, in favour or one (or more) intervention arm. The remaining studies failed to find a significance between conditions but were using a comparison with an active intervention, potentially indicating equivalent efficacy. A low level of theory use and use of behavioural techniques was evident. The literature review is limited to studies that have scientifically evaluated the (potential) weight loss associated with the weight loss intervention. This review could be put into perspective with other complementary research, in particular, qualitative research aimed at exploring participants' motivtions to use (or not) digital devices to lose weight. Few previous reviews have examined the extent of the efficiency in digital diet change programs. The review shows that in general, digital interventions can support weight loss for adults, however more studies are required to provide a strong evidence base for efficacy. Given their low cost and the size of the overweight population, public health policies could integrate these devices more strongly in their efforts to combat obesity. A theory-driven social marketing perspective could enhance development, ensuring interventions are effective and valued by users. |
| Keywords: | Public health,Obesity,Programme,Social marketing,Systematic Litterature Review,Digital intervention |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02404941&r=all |
| By: | Díaz, Juan-José; Saldarriaga, Victor |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the exposure to rainfall shocks affects the experience of physical intimate partner violence by women in rural areas of the Peruvian Andes. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys over the period 2005-2014, we track changes in women's experience of physical intimate partner violence following the exposure to rainfall shocks during the cropping season in the municipality. Our results indicate that the prevalence of physical intimate partner violence increases by 65 percent after the occurrence of events of drought, but not flood, during the cropping season. We argue, based on further results, that this effect is mediated by increased poverty-related stress and reduced female empowerment caused by rainfall shocks. |
| Keywords: | Health, Violence Against Women, Developing Countries |
| JEL: | D10 D13 I10 I15 O13 |
| Date: | 2020–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102108&r=all |
| By: | Künn, Steffen (Maastricht University); Seel, Christian (Maastricht University); Zegners, Dainis (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | During the recent COVID-19 pandemic, traditional (offline) chess tournaments were prohibited and instead held online. We exploit this as a unique setting to assess the impact of moving offline tasks online on the cognitive performance of individuals. We use the Artificial Intelligence embodied in a powerful chess engine to assess the quality of chess moves and associated errors. Using within-player comparisons, we find a statistically and economically significant decrease in performance when competing online compared to competing offline. Our results suggest that teleworking might have adverse effects on workers performing cognitive tasks. |
| Keywords: | productivity, teleworking, chess, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | H12 L23 M11 M54 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13491&r=all |
| By: | Coker Eric (College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida); Cavalli Laura (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Fabrizi Enrico (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Guastella Gianni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Mathematics and Physics, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Lippo Enrico (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Parisi Maria Laura (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia); Pontarollo Nicola (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia); Rizzati Massimiliano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Varacca Alessandro (Department of Agricultural Economics, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Vergalli Sergio (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia) |
| Abstract: | Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. The study accounts for potentially spatial confounding factors related to urbanization that may have influenced the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and related COVID-19 mortality. Our epidemiological analysis uses geographical information (e.g., municipalities) and negative binomial regression to assess whether both ambient PM2.5 concentration and excess mortality have a similar spatial distribution. Our analysis suggests a positive association of ambient PM2.5 concentration on excess mortality in Northern Italy related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Our estimates suggest that a one-unit increase in PM2.5 concentration (μg/m3) is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval: 6% - 12%) increase in COVID-19 related mortality. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Mortality, Pollution, Italy, Municipalities |
| JEL: | Q53 I18 J11 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2020.06&r=all |
| By: | Jacques Bughin |
| Abstract: | Chinese authorities acknowledged human transmissions of the disease a few weeks later. Contamination cases climbed from 270 by January 2020 to about 50,000 in the Hubei province, three weeks later—a multiplier of 200. Covid-19 has now been spreading across all continents, affecting 215 countries. The virus on the verge to claim 500,000 official deaths by end of June 2020, among 10 million records of infections. Viruses are part of our life, but some have been mutating into pandemics with exponential attack on human society and with major societal disruptions. The plague of Athens caused by typhus about 430 years BCE led to the fall of the Golden Age of Athens. The Antonin Plague (at about 180 years CE), caused by measles or smallpox, devastated the Roman Empire (Hurbin, 2011). Not far away from us, the Spanish Influenza broke out by 1918, and killed between 40-70 million people worldwide in 10 months, before retracting. Only regions with active measures to protect the population escaped the large recession that the influenza entailed (Correia et al, 2020). Closer to us, HIV in the eighties made significant casualties. If antiretroviral drugs were eventually found to contain the lethal attack, more than 20 million people out of 40 million HIV sufferers have passed away in 20 years according to UNAIDS. HIV is still the main cause of active population death in some sub-Saharan countries such as Zimbabwe or South Afrika, preventing their economic take off (Mboup et alii, 2006). Covid-19 has joined the club of exceptional outbreaks, and is becoming the 7th case of a virus with excess mortality rate above 0,1% since the 17th century according to the WHO (Table 1). Notably, it is already reaching the death toll of the 1957 H2N2 in the US,- and may have boosted the world death rate by about 25% in the recent six months. |
| Keywords: | pandemic, covid-19, digitization, economic resilience |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/312099&r=all |
| By: | Nippani, Abishek |
| Abstract: | Advancements in ICTs have heightened the potential of such technology to automate jobs and render labour redundant en masse, uniting the concerns of sociologists, policy makers, and economists alike. Realistically, however, concern revolves not around redundancy of labour, but the polarising effect automation exerts on jobs. This polarisation stems from the claim that automation 'hollows out' mid-skill jobs, thereby increasing demand for high- and low- skill jobs. Job polarisation widens wage disparity, lowers the aggregate skill level of labour and exacerbates existing social inequalities. Proponents of laissez-faire automation argue that while automation may exert adverse effects on labour in the short run, it is bound to realise higher net benefits and employment in the long run. Such an understanding which is based on the Schumpterian notion of creative destruction is predicated on the fact that firms would adopt only such technology which bring about substantial strides in productivity. However, world over and in India firms have been merely substituting labour with capital, without any greater efficiency gains. This trend is only set to worsen with the ongoing health crisis due to varied reasons. In such a situation, it becomes imperative to design novel methods of social security. |
| Date: | 2020–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h9gaw&r=all |
| By: | Howard Bodenhorn |
| Abstract: | Mandated shutdowns of nonessential businesses during the COVID-19 crisis brought into sharp relief the tradeoff between public health and a healthy economy. This paper documents the short-run effects of shutdowns during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, which provides a useful counterpoint to choices made in 2020. The 1918 closures were shorter and less sweeping, in part because the US was at war and the Wilson administration was unwilling to let public safety jeopardize the war’s prosecution. The result was widespread sickness, which pushed some businesses to shutdown voluntarily; others operated shorthanded. Using hand-coded, high-frequency data (mostly weekly) this study reports three principal results. First, retail sales declined during the three waves of the pandemic; manufacturing activity slowed, but by less than retail. Second, worker absenteeism due to either sickness or fear of contracting the flu reduced output in several key sectors and industries that were not ordered closed by as much as 10 to 20% in weeks of high excess mortality. Output declines were the result of labor-supply rather than demand shocks. And, third, mandated closures are not associated with increases in the number or aggregate dollar value of business failures, but the number and aggregate dollar value of business failures increased modestly in weeks of high excess mortality. The results highlight that the tradeoff between mandated closures and economic activity is not the only relevant tradeoff facing public health authorities. Economic activity also declines, sometimes sharply, during periods of unusually high influenza-related illness and excess mortality even absent mandated business closures. |
| JEL: | N11 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27495&r=all |
| By: | Brian Beach; Karen Clay; Martin H. Saavedra |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular focus on topics that have seen a renewed interest because of COVID-19. We begin by providing an overview of key contextual and epidemiological details as well as the data that are available to researchers. We then examine the effects on mortality, fertility, and the economy in the short and medium run. The role of nonpharmaceutical interventions in shaping those outcomes is discussed throughout. We then examine longer-lasting health consequences and their impact on human capital accumulation and socioeconomic status. Throughout the paper we highlight important areas for future work. |
| JEL: | I10 J10 J24 N0 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27673&r=all |
| By: | Federico, Salvatore (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Ferrari, Giorgio (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic process whose trend can be adjusted via costly confinement policies. We provide a complete theoretical analysis, as well as numerical experiments illustrating the structure of the optimal lockdown policy. In all our experiments the latter is characterized by three distinct periods: the epidemic is first let freely evolve, then vigorously tamed, and finally a less stringent containment should be adopted. Moreover, the optimal containment policy is such that the product "reproduction number x percentage of susceptible" is kept after a certain date strictly below the critical level of one, although the reproduction number is let oscillate above one in the last more relaxed phase of lockdown. |
| Keywords: | SIR model, optimal stochastic control, viscosity solution, epidemic, lockdown |
| Date: | 2020–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bie:wpaper:639&r=all |
| By: | Pedro Bordalo; Katherine B. Coffman; Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer |
| Abstract: | A central question for understanding behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6 – 13, 2020, to understand these risk perceptions. Here we report some preliminary results. Our most striking finding is that perceived personal health risks associated with Covid-19 fall sharply with age. |
| JEL: | D03 I1 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27494&r=all |
| By: | Serge Blondel (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UA - Université d'Angers, LIRAES - EA 4470 - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche Appliquée en Economie de la Santé - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5); Radu Vranceanu (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | The positive correlation between health share expenditures and COVID-19 case fatalities in a cross-section of 31 European countries is puzzling. The positive relationships is also detected in weighted OLS and IV models that control for many usual suspects of the COVID-19 mortality: (1) health indicators (personal risk factors, medical resources), (2) virus ease of circulation, (3) macroeconomic variables related to the economic development and social orientation of the country. COVID-19 case fatalities are lower in countries with significant resources dedicated to health care (hospital beds and medical doctors); the contribution of virus circulation factors is less significant. Policy implications follow. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,health care systems,Europe,efficiency,mortality,health policy |
| Date: | 2020–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02920258&r=all |
| By: | Tsutomu Watanabe (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo); Tomoyoshi Yabu (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University.) |
| Abstract: | Japan’s government has taken a number of measures, including declaring a state of emergency, to combat the spread COVID-19. We examine the mechanisms through which the government’s policies have led to changes in people’s behavior. Using smartphone location data, we construct a daily prefecture-level stay-at-home measure to identify the following two effects: (1) the effect that citizens refrained from going out in line with the government’s request, and (2) the effect that government announcements reinforced awareness with regard to the seriousness of the pandemic and people voluntarily refrained from going out. Our main findings are as follows. First, the declaration of the state of emergency reduced the number of people leaving their homes by 8.6% through the first channel, which is of the same order of magnitude as the estimate by Goolsbee and Syverson (2020) for lockdowns in the United States. Second, a 1% increase in new infections in a prefecture reduces people’s outings in that prefecture by 0.026%. Third, the government’s requests are responsible for about one quarter of the decrease in outings in Tokyo, while the remaining three quarters are the result of citizens obtaining new information through government announcements and the daily release of the number of infections. Our results suggest that what is necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 is not strong, legally binding measures but the provision of appropriate information that encourages people to change their behavior. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upd:utmpwp:027&r=all |
| By: | Jacques Bughin; Michele Cincera |
| Abstract: | FOG (« fear of going back to work ») is a new acronym reflecting workers stress to become contamined by covid-19. In response, firms have been offering protections, extending teleworking as a way to continue to work during the pandemics. Leveraging a classical epidemiologic SIR model, we study how pandemics such as Covid 19 affect labor market, when the labor productivity is tied to the value of interactions, and under wage negotiations. Despite relatively schematic, our modelling highlights that workers participation during pandemics is dependent on reservation wages, and that the final dynamics are also critically dependent on a mix of health and wealth factors such as age, work interactions, workers power, and productivity of interactions. In general, teleworking may be a way to restore work participation, even if teleworking may be less productive, to the extent that the productivity gap can be compensated by a much higher protection of workers. |
| Keywords: | pandemics, covid-19, labor participation, teleworking |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/312042&r=all |
| By: | David Cavanagh; Mark Hoey; Andrew Clark; Michael Small; Paul Bailey; Jon Watson |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 Pandemic has been described as the global challenge of our time, an enormous human tragedy with dramatic economic impacts. This paper describes the response and expected recovery process for Western Australia, where a rapid and effective response was implemented. This has enabled an early transition into an expected recovery both in health and economic terms. The positive lessons learned from this experience are documented as they emerge in order to support other states and nations as they address this issue globally in the near-term and consider enduring improvements for the longer term. While the authors have personal experience in the WA context, wider observations across Australia and selected international benchmarks are also included. Key lessons include the importance of good health advice in Australia's interest; timely, synchronized and aligned action at all levels of government; a program of well communicated, aligned health and economic measures which support all in society allowing a very high level of appropriate community behaviour, ensuring the health system was not overloaded; innovation in telehealth, testing, pandemic modelling, and integrated operations which also allowed essential industries to continue; and strong border and travel controls with highly effective isolation preventing community spread, ultimately enabling rapid elimination of the disease from the hospital system. In combination, these demonstrate that in the case of Western Australia the result of first eliminating the disease from the community, and then reopening the economy progressively at a strong pace, has enabled a world leading outcome in both in health and economic terms. The lessons from this experience are widely applicable, shareable both as supporting service to other regions and through knowledge transfer. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.08918&r=all |
| By: | Mansour, Hani (University of Colorado Denver); Rees, Daniel I. (University of Colorado Denver); Reeves, James (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | This is the first study to examine the effect of experiencing a widespread, deadly epidemic on voting behavior. Using data on elections to the U.S House of Representatives and leveraging cross-district variation in HIV/AIDS mortality during the period 1983-1987, we document the effects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on votes received by Democratic and Republican candidates. Beginning with the 1994 elections, there is a strong, positive association between HIV/AIDS mortality and the vote share received by Democratic candidates. Congressional districts that bore the brunt of the HIV/AIDS epidemic also saw substantial increases in Democratic voter turnout and contributions made to Democratic candidates. |
| Keywords: | HIV/AIDS, epidemic, Democratic, Republican |
| JEL: | D72 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13442&r=all |
| By: | Fabic, Madeleine Short; Choi, Yoonjoung |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 cases are quickly growing across the United States with numerous states reporting that the proportion of cases among young people is ballooning. COVID-19 data are typically presented cumulatively and by only one demographic characteristic. Understanding and communicating complex demographic trends is imperative to recognize population-level vulnerabilities and inform tailored public health responses. Using the latest COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Use Data by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we aim to: a) assess one dimension of reporting quality-- data completeness; and b) examine national time-trends in the age pattern of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths overall as well as by race and ethnicity. Reporting of race and ethnicity in COVID-19 cases has been persistently poor, multiple months into the pandemic. Our analysis also shows unequal and changing age-patterns among cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by race and ethnicity. Age-pattern differences between whites and other races are widening. |
| Date: | 2020–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7edgu&r=all |
| By: | Florian Dorn; Clemens Fuest; Marcell Göttert; Carla Krolage; Stefan Lautenbacher; Robert Lehmann; Sebastian Link; Sascha Möhrle; Andreas Peichl; Magnus Reif; Stefan Sauer; Marc Stöckli; Klaus Wohlrabe; Timo Wollmershäuser |
| Abstract: | This paper presents scenarios of the shutdown costs in terms of lost value added for Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and UK. The shutdown phase will lead to considerable production losses and large declines in GDP this year. Lasting longer than a month, the losses within the EU quickly reach dimensions well beyond the growth slump of previous recessions or natural disasters. Shutdown costs justify almost every conceivable investment in health policy measures which allow to combine a resumption of production with further fight against the epidemic. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_25&r=all |
| By: | Berta, P.; Lovaglio, P.G.; Paruolo, P.; Verzillo, S. |
| Abstract: | Response management to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak requires to answer several forecasting tasks. For hospital managers, a major one is to anticipate the likely needs of beds in intensive care in a given catchment area one or two weeks ahead, starting as early as possible in the evolution of the epidemic. This paper proposes to use a bivariate Error Correction model to forecast the needs of beds in intensive care, jointly with the number of patients hospitalised with Covid-19 symptoms. Error Correction models are found to provide reliable forecasts that are tailored to the local characteristics both of epidemic dynamics and of hospital practice for various in Europe in Italy, France and Scotland, both at the onset and at later stages of the spread of the disease. The forecast performance is encouraging for all analysed regions, suggesting that the present approach may be useful also beyond the analysed cases. |
| Keywords: | SARS-CoV-2; Covid-19; Intensive Care Units; Forecasting; Vector error correction model; VAR; |
| JEL: | C53 C32 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:20/16&r=all |
| By: | Christian Gollier |
| Abstract: | Assuming that there is no other solution than herd immunity in front of the current pandemic, on which categories of citizens should we build this herd immunity? Given the fact that young people face a mortality rate which is at least a thousand times smaller than people aged 70 years and more, there is a simple rational to build it on these younger generations. The transfer of some mortality risk to younger people raises dfficult ethical issues. However, none of the familiar moral or operational guidelines (equality of rights, VSL, QALY, ...) that have been used in the Western world over the last century weights the value of young lives 1000 times or more than the lives of the elders. This suggests that Society could offer Covid protection to the elders by conning them as long as this herd immunity has not been attained by the younger generations. This would be a potent demonstration of intergenerational solidarity towards the most vulnerable people in our community. The welfare gain of this age-specic deconfinement strategy is huge, as it can reduce the global death toll by more than 80%. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_29&r=all |
| By: | Francesco Busato; Bruno Chiarini; Gianluigi Cisco; Maria Ferrara; Elisabetta Marzano |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic is producing a global health and economic crisis. The entire globe is facing the trade-off between health and recessionary effects. This paper investigates this trade-off according to a macro-dynamic perspective. We set up and simulate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to analyze the COVID-19 contagion within an economy with endogenous dynamics for the pandemic. There are three main results. First, the macroeconomic effects of the epidemic containment measures are much severe. The negative peak in aggregate production range from 11 percent with a soft containment measure to 35 percent with a strong containment measure; second, recovery from recession emerges when the lockdown policy is relaxed. On that basis, the output would return to its pre-lockdown level by the end of 2021; third, a return infection is expected after 36 weeks from the fist contagion contributing to exacerbates the size and duration of the economic crisis. |
| Keywords: | business cycle, COVID-2019 pandemic, DSGE |
| JEL: | E32 I12 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8465&r=all |
| By: | Naoki Aizawa; Soojin Kim; Serena Rhee |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the optimal design of social insurance programs for disabled workers by developing and estimating an equilibrium labor search model with screening contracts. In the model, firms may strategically use employment contracts, consisting of wage and job amenities, to screen out the disabled. The optimal structure of disability policies depends on firms' screening incentives, which may distort employment rates and contracts. By exploiting policy changes on the labor demand side for the disabled in the United States, we identify and estimate our equilibrium model to explore the optimal joint design of disability policies, including disability insurance (DI) and subsidies to firms accommodating disabled workers. We find that firm subsidies mitigate screening distortions; at the same time, they interact with DI by reducing the labor supply disincentives it generates. The optimal policy structure leads to a considerable welfare gain by simultaneously making firm subsidies and DI benefits more generous. |
| JEL: | E61 H21 H51 I18 J32 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27478&r=all |
| By: | Luiz Brotherhood; Philipp Kircher; Cezar Santos; Michéle Tertilt |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of testing and age-composition in the Covid-19 epidemic. We augment a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices regarding how much time to spend working and consuming outside the house, both of which increase the risk of transmission. Individuals who have flu symptoms are unsure whether they caught Covid-19 or simply a common cold. Testing reduces the time of uncertainty. Individuals are heterogeneous with respect to age. Younger people are less likely to die, exacerbating their willingness to take risks and to impose externalities on the old. We explore heterogeneous policy responses in terms of testing, confinements, and selective mixing by age group. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, testing, social distancing, age-specific policies |
| JEL: | E17 C63 D62 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_175v1&r=all |
| By: | Luiz Brotherhood; Philipp Kircher; Cezar Santos; Michéle Tertilt |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the importance of the age composition in the Covid-19 pandemic. We augment a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices on work and non-work social distancing. Infected individuals are initially uncertain unless they are tested. We find that older individuals socially distance themselves substantially in equilibrium. Confining the old even more reduces their welfare. Confining the young extends the duration of the epidemic, with negative consequences on the old if the epidemic cannot be controlled after confinement. Testing and quarantines save lives, even if conducted just on the young, as does separation of activities by age. Combining policies can increase the welfare of both the young and the old. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, testing, social distancing, age-specific policies |
| JEL: | E17 C63 D62 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_175v2&r=all |
| By: | Zhen Zhu; Enzo Weber; Till Strohsal; Duaa Serhan |
| Abstract: | Most of the existing literature on the current pandemic focuses on approaches to model the outbreak and spreading of COVID-19. This paper proposes a generalized Markov-Switching approach, the SUIHR model, designed to study border control policies and contact tracing against COVID-19 in a period where countries start to re-open. We offer the following contributions. First, the SUIHR model can include multiple entities, reflecting different government bodies with different containment measures. Second, constraints as, for example, new case targets and medical resource limits can be imposed in a linear programming framework. Third, in contrast to most SIR models, we focus on the spreading of infectious people without symptoms instead of the spreading of people who are already showing symptoms. We find that even if a country has closed its borders completely, domestic contact tracing is not enough to go back to normal life. Countries having successfully controlled the virus can keep it under check as long as imported risk is not growing, meaning they can lift travel restrictions with similar countries. However, opening borders towards countries with less controlled infection dynamics would require a mandatory quarantine or a strict test on arrival. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.13561&r=all |
| By: | NESTEROV Yurii, (CORE, Université catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model [10], which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of asymptomatic virus holders using the available daily statistics on the number of new cases. We suggest to use a new indicator, the total inflection rate, to distinguish the propagation and recession modes of the epidemic. We check our indicator on the available data for eleven different countries and for the whole world. Our reconstructions are very precise. In several cases, we are able to detect the exact dates of the disastrous political decisions, ensuring the second wave of the epidemics. It appears that for all our examples the decisions made on the basis of the current number of new cases are wrong. Int his paper, we suggest a reasonable alternative. Our analysis shows that all tested countries are in a dangerous zone except Sweden. |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2020025&r=all |
| By: | Giuntella, Osea (University of Pittsburgh); Hyde, Kelly (University of Pittsburgh); Saccardo, Silvia (Carnegie Mellon University); Sadoff, Sally (University of California, San Diego) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 has affected daily life in unprecedented ways. Using a longitudinal dataset linking biometric and survey data from several cohorts of young adults before and during the pandemic (N=685), we document large disruptions to physical activity, sleep, time use, and mental health. At the onset of the pandemic, average steps decline from 9,400 to 4,600 steps per day, sleep increases by about 25-30 minutes per night, time spent socializing declines by over half to less than 30 minutes, and screen time more than doubles to over 5 hours per day. The proportion of participants at risk of clinical depression increases to 65%, over twice the rate in the same population prior to the pandemic. Our analyses suggest that disruption to physical activity is a leading risk factor for depression during the pandemic. However, restoration of those habits–either naturally or through policy intervention–has limited impact on restoring mental well-being. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, mental health, lifestyle disruptions |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13569&r=all |
| By: | Christian Gollier; Olivier Gossner |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that group testing is an efficient strategy to screen for the presence of a virus. It consists in pooling n individual samples with a single test using RT-PCR. If at least one individual is infected, the test is positive, and it is negative otherwise. We show how group testing can be optimized in three applications to multiply the efficiency of tests against Covid-19: Estimating virus prevalence to measure the evolution of the pandemic; bringing negative groups back to work to exit the current lockdown; and testing for individual infectious status to treat sick people. For an infection level around 2%, group testing could multiply the power of testing by a factor 20. The implementation of this strategy in the short run requires limited investments and could bypass the current immense shortage of testing capacity. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_24&r=all |
| By: | Sumit Kumar Ram (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich); Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | In the first quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the world to a state of paralysis. During this period, humanity has seen by far the largest organized travel restrictions and unprecedented efforts and global coordination to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using large-scale human mobility and fine-grained epidemic incidence data, we develop a framework to understand and quantify the effectiveness of the interventions implemented by various countries to control epidemic growth. Our analysis reveals the importance of timing and implementation of strategic policy in controlling the epidemic. Through our analysis, we also unearth significant spatial diffusion of the epidemic before and during the lock-down measures in several countries, casting doubt on the effectiveness or on the implementation quality of the proposed Governmental policies. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Effective reproduction number, Governmental interventions, Human mobility |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2058&r=all |
| By: | Brandily, Paul (Paris School of Economics); Brébion, Clément (Paris School of Economics); Briole, Simon (Paris School of Economics); Khoury, Laura (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | While COVID-19 was responsible for more than 600,000 deaths worldwide as of July 24, 2020, very little is known about the socio-economic heterogeneity of its impact on mortality. In this paper, we combine several administrative data sources to estimate the relationship between mortality due to COVID-19 and poverty at a very local level (i.e. the municipality level) in France, one of the most severely hit countries in the world. We find strong evidence of an income gradient in the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates, which is twice as large in municipalities below the 25th percentile of the national income distribution than in municipalities above this threshold. We then show that both poor housing conditions and higher occupational exposure play a key role in this heterogeneity: taken together, these mechanisms account for up to 77% of the difference observed between rich and poor municipalities. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; poverty; inequality; mortality; labor market; housing conditions |
| JEL: | I14 I18 R00 |
| Date: | 2020–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2020_015&r=all |