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on Health Economics |
| By: | Qiu, Yun; Chen, Xi; Shi, Wei |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. While many socioeconomic factors mediate the virus spread, a robust government response since late January played a determinant role in the containment of the virus. We also demonstrate that the actual population ow from the outbreak source poses a higher risk to the destination than other factors such as geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. The results have rich implications for ongoing global efforts in containment of COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | 2019 novel coronavirus,transmission |
| JEL: | I18 I12 C23 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:494&r=all |
| By: | La, Viet-Phuong; Pham, Thanh-Hang; Ho, Toan Manh (Thanh Tay University Hanoi); Hoàng, NGUYỄN Minh; Linh, Nguyen Phuc Khanh; Vuong, Thu-Trang; Nguyen, Hong-Kong T.; Ho, Tung Manh; Vuong, Quan-Hoang |
| Abstract: | With the geographic proximity and high volume of trade with China, Vietnam was expected to have a high risk of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. However, to date [mid-March 2020], in comparison to attempts to containing the disease around the world, responses from Vietnam are seen as prompt and effective in protecting the interests of its citizens. This study analyzes the situation in terms of Vietnam’s policy response, social media, and science journalism. It contributes valuable lessons for other nations in the concurrent fight against the COVID-19 pandemic via fostering genuine cooperation between government, civil society, and private individuals. |
| Date: | 2020–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vxhz5&r=all |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Lukas Hensel; Johannes Hermle; Christopher Roth |
| Abstract: | We provide the first analysis on how fear of the novel coronavirus affects current economic sentiment. First, we collect a global dataset on internet searches indicative of economic anxieties, which serve as a leading indicator of subsequent aggregate demand contractions. We find that the arrival of coronavirus in a country leads to a substantial increase in such internet searches of up to 58 percent. Second, to understand how information about the coronavirus drives economic anxieties, we conduct a survey experiment in a representative sample of the US population. We find that participants vastly overestimate mortality from and contagiousness of the virus. Providing participants with information regarding these statistics substantially lowers participants' expectations about the severity of the crisis and participants' worries regarding the aggregate economy and their personal economic situation. These results suggest that factual public education about the virus will help to contain spreading economic anxiety and improve economic sentiment. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2003.03848&r=all |
| By: | Puhani, Patrick A. |
| Abstract: | Measures to contain the Corona virus (COVID-19) may pay off in terms of slowing down proliferation. The proliferation trend in France and Germany now exceeds the one in Italy, South Korea and Japan. At the same time, the containment measures seem more intense in Italy, South Korea and Japan than in France and Germany. Nevertheless, decision makers in France and Germany as in other countries need to compare the costs of containment (such as various forms of shut downs, cancellations of events, school closures, isolation, quarantine) with the costs of a faster proliferation of the virus. This is a "quick and dirty Sunday morning" analysis of confirmed Corona cases as published in CSSEGISandData by the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Corona outbreak,pandemic,epidemic,policy,quarantine,isolation |
| JEL: | I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:487&r=all |
| By: | Yeva Nersisyan; L. Randall Wray |
| Abstract: | As the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads across the United States, it has become clear that, in addition to the public health response (which has been far less than adequate), an economic response is needed. Yeva Nersisyan and Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray identify four steps that require immediate attention: (1) full coverage of medical costs associated with testing and treatment of COVID-19; (2) mandated paid sick leave and full coverage of associated costs; (3) debt relief for families; and (4) swift deployment of testing and treatment facilities to underserved communities. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levyop:op_62&r=all |
| By: | Andrew Atkeson |
| Abstract: | This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over the next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in a population in which the total population is divided into categories of being susceptible to the disease (S), actively infected with the disease (I), and recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How an epidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates between these three states. This model allows for quantitative statements regarding the tradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease through social distancing and the progression of the disease in the population. Example applications of the model are provided. Special attention is given to the question of if and when the fraction of active infections in the population exceeds 1% (at which point the health system is forecast to be severely challenged) and 10% (which may result in severe staffing shortages for key financial and economic infrastructure) as well as the cumulative burden of the disease over an 18 month horizon. |
| Date: | 2020–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:87617&r=all |
| By: | Daube, Carl Heinz |
| Abstract: | The aim of this working paper is to provide a first analysis of the massive price decrease in the international financial markets since early March 2020. This is done on the basis of an economic view, but sociological and psychological approaches are also used. The initial thesis is that the economic parameters were already "toxic" at the beginning of 2020. |
| Keywords: | Corona Virus,Stock Exchange Crash |
| JEL: | G15 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:214881&r=all |
| By: | Pierre Bricage (AFSCET - Association Française de Science des Systèmes - AFSCET) |
| Abstract: | Usually common cold is not a danger, but a new strain of coronavirus is killing man species. Why? This virus could have not emerged spontaneously by natural mutations and wild strains recombinations, it is a genetic chimaera with artificial insertions modified genes, an engineered genome of a coronavirus within a capsid of a Human Immunodeficiency Virus HIV, which has been created to be a curative vaccine of AIDS. Isn't another more secured methodology to definitely cure sick people? |
| Abstract: | Le rhume est une affection bénigne pourtant un nouveau coronavirus déclenche, chez l'homme adulte âgé, un très très gros rhume qui peut être mortel. Pourquoi ? Cette nouvelle souche virale est d'emblée "humanisée" et le traitement de la maladie associée répond aux médicaments anti-VIH. Le virus est caractérisé par un génome modifié, qui ne peut pas provenir de mutations et de recombinaisons génétiques apparues naturellement. C'est une chimère génétique associant des structures (protéine d'enveloppe) et des propriétés fonctionnelles (protéase) à la fois d'un coronavirus (le génome) et du Virus de l'Immunodéficience Humaine (la capside). Comment ce virus artificiel conçu par génie génétique pour être un vaccin curatif du SIDA, et traiter uniquement les malades, at -il été "libéré" dans la nature ? Une autre méthodologie de construction d'un vaccin curatif du VIH plus contrôlable est-elle envisageable ? |
| Keywords: | AIDS virus,common cold,coronavirus,genome engineering,genetic chimaera,curative vaccine,2019,cellule hôte,chimère génétique,génie génétique,Organisme Génétiquement Modifié OGM,rhume,SIDA,vaccination curative,Virus de l'Immunodéficience Humaine VIH,Wuhan |
| Date: | 2020–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02497661&r=all |
| By: | Claudiu Albulescu (CRIEF) |
| Abstract: | Coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty, hitting the global economy and amplifying the financial markets volatility. The oil price reaction to COVID-19 was gradually accommodated until March 09, 2020, when, 49 days after the release of the first coronavirus monitoring report by the World Health Organization (WHO), Saudi Arabia floods the market with oil. As a result, international prices drop with more than 20% in one single day. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 numbers on crude oil prices, while controlling for the impact of financial volatility and the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty. Our ARDL estimation shows that the COVID-19 daily reported cases of new infections have a marginal negative impact on the crude oil prices in the long run. Nevertheless, by amplifying the financial markets volatility, COVID-19 also has an indirect effect on the recent dynamics of crude oil prices. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2003.06184&r=all |
| By: | Boot, Arnoud W. A.; Carletti, Elena; Haselmann, Rainer; Kotz, Hans-Helmut; Krahnen, Jan Pieter; Pelizzon, Loriana; Schaefer, Stephen M.; Subrahmanyam, Marti G. |
| Abstract: | The spreading of the Covid-19 virus causes a reduction in economic activity worldwide and may lead to new risks to financial stability. The authors draw attention to the urgency of the targeted mitigation strategies on the European level and suggest taking coordinated action on the fiscal side to provide liquidity to affected firms in the corporate sector. Otherwise, virus-related cashflow interruptions could lead to a new full-blown banking crisis. Monetary policy measures are unlikely to mitigate cash liquidity shortages at the level of individual firms. Coordinated action at European level is decisive to prevent markets from losing confidence in the resilience of banks, particularly in countries with limited fiscal capacity. In contrast to the euro crisis of 2011, the cause of the current crisis does not lie in the financial markets; therefore, the risk of moral hazard for banks or states is low. |
| Keywords: | coronavirus,financial stability,banking,strategies |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safepl:78&r=all |
| By: | Claudiu Albulescu (CRIEF) |
| Abstract: | 40 days after the start of the international monitoring of COVID-19, we search for the effect of official announcements regarding new cases of infection and death ratio on the financial markets volatility index (VIX). Whereas the new cases reported in China and outside China have a mixed effect on financial volatility, the death ratio positively influences VIX, that outside China triggering a more important impact. In addition, the higher the number of affected countries, the higher the financial volatility is. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2003.04005&r=all |
| By: | Dolnicar, Sara (The University of Queensland); Zare, Samira |
| Abstract: | Has coronavirus disrupted the disruptor? We argue that this is indeed the case, and that this disruption will affect the growth of Airbnb on the long term. The first premise of our prediction is that coronavirus is representative of any kind of major shock that has the potential to affect the tourism industry. The second premise is that the consequences of this super-shock are asymmetric. Different types of hosts will face different types of challenges as a consequence of the sudden and unexpected drop in demand. Investors who are in the business of short term rental to make commercial profits will find themselves in a situation where they still have expenses, but no more income. Some of these investors will re-assess the risk of short-term rental and never return to Airbnb. As a consequence, the supply of Airbnb properties will limit Airbnb growth in future. |
| Date: | 2020–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t9n6q&r=all |
| By: | Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau); Refk Selmi (IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus epidemic is not the first virus outbreak that has threatened to disturb financial markets. But the world is now more interconnected since the 2003 SARS outbreak as global companies' revenues have become much more exposed to China. The purposes of this paper are threefold. The first is to address the timely question of whether Bitcoin exhibits a safe-haven property against heightened uncertainty over how the duration and spread of the coronavirus could hit the world economy. The second purpose is to assess if the initial news of the coronavirus outbreak have led to an increased volatility of Bitcoin. The third aim is to test if Bitcoin immediately react on publicly announced information (follows the hypothesis of efficient markets). We show that the current bullish sentiment is triggered by investors seeking Bitcoin as a safe haven in the uncertain times ahead. But we also find that the virus intensifies the volatility of Bitcoin due to a search by investors for alternative asset classes amid concerns about the coronavirus. The information regarding the coronavirus takes time to be reflected in the Bitcoin price, highlighting the associated inefficiencies it brings. Also, the risk to global markets may currently be masked owing to wide liquidity injections by Central Banks including the People's Bank of China and the U.S Federal Reserve. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency,Coronavirus,Bitcoin,Safe haven,Volatility |
| Date: | 2020–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02493309&r=all |
| By: | Perez-Quiros, Gabriel; Rots, Eyno; Leiva-Leon, Danilo |
| Abstract: | We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia) and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa). Based on such inferences, we construct a Global Weakness Index that has three main features. First, it can be updated as soon as new regional data is released, as we show by measuring the economic effects of coronavirus. Second, it provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform robust risk assessments based on the probability that the level of global weakness would exceed a certain threshold of interest in every period of time. JEL Classification: E32, C22, E27 |
| Keywords: | business cycles, factor model, international, nonlinear |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202381&r=all |
| By: | Juan Pablo Atal (University of Pennsylvania); Hanming Fang (University of Pennsylvania); Martin Karlsson (University of Duisburg-Essen); Nicolas R. Ziebarth (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | To insure policyholders against contemporaneous health expenditure shocks and future reclassi-fication risk, long-term health insurance constitutes an alternative to community-rated short-term contracts with an individual mandate. Relying on unique claims panel data from a large private insurer in Germany, we study a real-world long-term health insurance application with a life-cycle perspective. We show that German long-term health insurance (GLTHI) achieves substantial wel-fare gains compared to a series of risk-rated short-term contracts. Although, by its simple design, the premium setting of GLTHI contract departs significantly from the optimal dynamic contract, surprisingly we only find modest welfare differences between the two. Finally, we conduct coun-terfactual policy experiments to illustrate the welfare consequences of integrating GLTHI into a system with a “Medicare-like” public insurance that covers people above 65. |
| Keywords: | Long-Term Health Insurance; Individual Private Health Insurance; Health Care Re-form |
| JEL: | G22 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:20-009&r=all |
| By: | Jorge Luis Garcia (Clemson University); James J. Heckman (The University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | This paper forecasts the life-cycle treatment effects on health of a high-quality early childhood program. Our predictions combine microsimulation using non-experimental data with experimental data from a midlife long-term follow-up. The follow-up incorporated a full epidemiological exam. The program mainly benefits males and significantly reduces the prevalence of heart disease, stroke, cancer, and mortality across the life-cycle. For men, we estimate an average reduction of 3.8 disability-adjusted years (DALYs). The reduction in DALYs is relatively small for women. The gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) is almost enough to offset all of the costs associated with program implementation for males and half of program costs for women. |
| Keywords: | early childhood education, life-cycle health, long-term forecasts, program evaluation, randomized trials |
| JEL: | I10 J13 I28 C93 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-011&r=all |
| By: | Persico, Claudia (American University) |
| Abstract: | Although industrial plants, known as Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) sites, exist in every major city of the United States releasing billions of pounds of toxic substances annually, there is little evidence about how these pollutants might harm child development and children's long run outcomes. Using the detailed geocoded data that follows national representative cohorts of children born to the NLSY respondents over time with detailed information on families, locations, health, disability and labor market outcomes, I compare siblings who were gestating before versus after a TRI site opened or closed within one mile of their home. In other words, I compare siblings in the same family whose family does not move between births where one or more child was exposed to TRI pollution during gestation and other siblings were not exposed because the plant opened or closed in between the conceptions of different children in the same family. I find that children who were exposed prenatally to TRI pollution have lower wages, are more likely to be in poverty as adults, have fewer years of completed education, are less likely to graduate high school, and are more likely to have a disability. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, academic achievement, child health |
| JEL: | Q53 I24 I14 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12965&r=all |
| By: | Dasgupta,Susmita; Lall,Somik V.; Wheeler,David |
| Abstract: | Air pollution from vehicular traffic is a major source of health damage in urban areas. The problems of urban traffic and pollution are essentially geographic, because their incidence and impacts depend on the spatial distribution of economic activities, households, and transport links. This paper uses satellite images to investigate the spatial dynamics of vehicle traffic, air pollution, and exposure of vulnerable residents in the Dar es Salaam metro region of Tanzania. The results highlight significant impacts of seasonal weather (temperature, humidity, and wind-speed factors) on the spatial distribution and intensity of air pollution from vehicle emissions. These effects on the metro region's air quality vary highly by area. During seasons when weather factors maximize pollution, the worst exposure occurs in areas along the wind path of high-traffic roadways. The research identifies core areas where congestion reduction would yield the greatest exposure reduction for children and the elderly in poor households. |
| Keywords: | Intelligent Transport Systems,Air Quality&Clean Air,Pollution Management&Control,Brown Issues and Health,Inequality,Health Care Services Industry,Railways Transport |
| Date: | 2020–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9185&r=all |
| By: | Nicolas Berman (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lorenzo Rotunno (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Roberta Ziparo (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | How to allocate limited resources among children is a crucial household decision, especially in developing countries where it might have strong implications for children and family survival. We study how variations in parental income in the early life of their children affect subsequent child health and parental investments across siblings, using micro data from multiple waves of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) spanning 54 developing countries. Variations in the world prices of locally produced crops are used as measures of local income. We find that children born in periods of higher income durably enjoy better health and receive better human capital (health and education) investments than their siblings. Children whose older siblings were born during favourable income periods receive less investment and exhibit worse health in absolute terms. We interpret these within-household reallocations in light of economic and evolutionary theories that highlight the importance of efficiency considerations in competitive environments. Finally, we study the implications of these for aggregate child health inequality, which is found to be higher in regions exposed to more volatile crop prices. |
| Keywords: | health,income,parental investments,intra-household allocations |
| Date: | 2020–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02499192&r=all |
| By: | Juan Chaparro (Universidad EAFIT); Aaron Sojourner (University of Minnesota); Matthew Wiswall (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | This paper combines multiple sources of information on early childhood development in a unified model for analysis of a wide range of early childhood policy interventions. We develop a model of child care in which households decide both the quantities and qualities of maternal and non-maternal care along with maternal labor supply. The model introduces a novel parenting-effort channel, whereby child care subsidies that permit less parenting may enable better parenting. To estimate the model, we combine observational data with experimental data from the Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) which randomly assigned free child care when the child was 1 and 2 years old. We estimate a cognitive skill production function and household preferences, giving insight into mechanisms driving the ex post heterogeneous effects of the IHDP intervention, accounting for alternative care substitutes available to the control group and spillovers of the child care offer across the household's decisions. We also estimate ex ante effects of counterfactual policies such as an offer of lower-quality care, requiring a co-pay for subsidized care, raising the maternal wage offer, or a cash transfer. Finally, we use the model to rationalize existing evidence from outside the US on the effects of universal child care programs. |
| Keywords: | human capital, skill formation, child care, maternal labor supply |
| JEL: | J13 D10 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-012&r=all |
| By: | Martin Fischer (na); Ulf-Göram Gerdtham, (Lund University, Sweden); Gawain Heckley (Lund University, Sweden); Martin Karlsson (University Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Gustav Kjellsson (University of Gothenburg, Sweden); Therese Nilsson (Lund University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We investigate two parallel school reforms in Sweden to assess the long-run health effects of education. One reform only increased years of schooling, while the other increased years of schooling but also removed tracking leading to a more mixed socioeconomic peer group. By differencing the effects of the parallel reforms, we can separate the effect of de-tracking and peers from that of more schooling. We find that the pure years of schooling reform reduced mortality and improved current health. Differencing the effects of the reforms shows significant differences in the estimated impacts, suggesting that de-tracking and subsequent peer effects resulted in worse health. |
| Keywords: | Health returns to education, school tracking, peer effects |
| JEL: | I12 I18 I26 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1906&r=all |
| By: | Cheti Nicoletti (University of York); Kjell Salvanes (Norges Handelshøyskole); Emma Tominey (University of York) |
| Abstract: | Increasing mothers' labour supply in a child's preschool years can cause a reduction in time investments that lead to a negative direct effect on mid-childhood and teenage outcomes. But as mothers' work hours increase, income will rise. We ask whether income can compensate for the negative effect of hours by adopting a novel mediation analysis that exploits exogenous variation in both mothers' hours and family income in pre-school years. As expected we find a negative direct effect of an increase in mother's work hours on child test scores at age 11 and 15. However, income fully compensates for this negative direct effect. This is true for the full sample of children, for boys and girls and for children in households whose mother has a low and high level of education. |
| Keywords: | Child Development, test scores, parental investments |
| JEL: | I22 I24 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2020-015&r=all |
| By: | Norman Bannenberg (University Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Oddvar Førland (VID Specialized University, Norway); Tor Iversen (University of Oslo, norway); Martin Karlsson (University Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Henning Øien (Norwegian Institute of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the introduction of preventive home visits (PHV) for older people in Norway. Their purpose is to support autonomy and independence as well as preventing disability and nursing home admissions. We contribute to the literature by exploiting a natural experiment in Norwegian municipalities. Our results show that the introduction of a PHV program significantly changes the use of local public resources away from nursing homes, while increasing the utilization of home-based care. Further, PHVs lead to a decline in hospital admissions by 8 percent – whereas treatments for mental health conditions remain unaffected. Mortality is reduced by 4 percent in the age group 80 and above. |
| Keywords: | preventive home visits, long-term care, natural experiment, primary prevention |
| JEL: | C23 H75 I18 J14 J18 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1907&r=all |
| By: | Allais, Oliver; Bonnet, Céline; Réquillart, Vincent; Spiteri, Marine |
| Abstract: | Many countries have implemented the taxation of unhealthy food. Facing such a tax, firms can adapt their pricing strategy and modify the characteristics of their products. There are, so far, only a few ex-ante analyses of the impact of taxes on consumption that endogenize the price response of firms to the tax policy. However, none of them takes into account the possibility for firms to modify the characteristics of a product. In this paper, we propose an ex-ante evaluation of the effects of a tax that targets products high in caloric sweeteners on key market outcomes, by integrating not only the strategic price reactions of firms, but also the exogenous changes in a product’s nutritional composition. We develop a structural econometric model that integrates the consumer’s substitution patterns between products, accounts for competition between firms, and integrates the possibility for firms to modify the characteristics of a product in response to taxation. Using household scanner data from the French dessert market, we show that ignoring how firms might react to a tax policy leads to a significant underestimation of the potential impact of taxation on the consumption of taxed nutrients. In our case, we show that ignoring the combined effect of strategic price reactions and product reformulation leads to the impact of the tax on the intake of the taxed nutrient being underestimated by 44%. From a policy-oriented perspective, we conclude that a taxation scheme should be designed to favor product reformulation by firms. |
| JEL: | H32 L13 Q18 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:124156&r=all |
| By: | Paola Bertoli (University of Economics, Prague); Veronica Grembi (Center for Health and Wellbeing, Princeton University, University of Milan); The Linh Bao Nguyen (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | We challenge the use of traditional measures of ethnic density| e.g., the incidence of an ethnic group on the resident population of a specific area| when testing the correlation between stronger ethnic networks and health at birth (i.e., birth weight). Using unique data from Italy on the main 44 ethnicities residing across almost 4,500 municipalities, we propose more insightful measures, as the distribution of immigrant associations or the incidence of ethnicities sharing the same language. We prove that, once fixed effects for the municipality of residence and the ethnic group are included, the correlation between ethnic density and health at birth is not statistically different from zero. However, ethnic density does channel positive effect on health at birth when a negative shock, as the 2008 Great Recession, struck the labor market. Exploiting a quasi-randomized diffusion of the recession, we find that its average negative impact on immigrant newborns was mitigated by stronger ethnic networks. We show that this can be explained by through sorting of the healthier and more fertile ethnic groups, which experienced also lower levels of in utero selection. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic networks, Ethnic density, Great recession, Immigrants, Low birth weight, Premature babies |
| JEL: | I1 I12 J15 J60 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1909&r=all |
| By: | McGowan, Lucy D'Agostino; Leek, Jeffrey T |
| Abstract: | Medicine has always been a data science. Collecting and interpreting data is a key component of every interaction between physicians and patients. Data can be anything from blood pressure measurements at a yearly exam to complex radiology images interpreted by experts or algorithms. Interpreting these uncertain data for accurate diagnosis, management, and care is a critical component of every physician’s daily life. The intimate relationship between data science and medicine is apparent in the pages of our most prominent medical journals. Using Pubmed, we pulled the abstracts of all papers published in The New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, Nature Medicine, The Lancet, PLoS Medicine, and BMJ for the years 2010 - March 2019. We then searched for a list of statistical terms in the text of these abstracts. For these 12,281 abstracts a median of 50% (IQR 30%, 67%) of sentences contained a term that would require statistical training to understand. |
| Date: | 2020–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:e8tgp&r=all |
| By: | Keloharju, Matti (Aalto University School of Business); Knüpfer, Samuli (BI Norwegian Business School); Tåg, Joacim (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Boards hire and fire CEOs based on imperfect information. Using comprehensive data on 28 cohorts in Sweden, we analyze the role of a potentially important unobserved attribute—CEO health—in corporate governance. We find CEOs are significantly healthier than the population and other highskill professionals, in particular in mental health. Health at appointment predicts turnover, suggesting boards respond to health problems and correct mismatches that occurred at the time of appointment. Health-related corporate governance appears to work imperfectly, however, as we find CEO health also associates with firm policies requiring an active CEO role. |
| Keywords: | CEOs; Corporate Governance; Executives; Mental Health; Physical Health |
| JEL: | G34 I12 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1326&r=all |
| By: | Helleringer, Stephane; Liu, Li; Chu, Yue; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Fisker, Ane Baerent |
| Abstract: | Neonatal deaths (i.e., those occurring within 28 days of birth) account for close to half of all deaths among children under age 5 worldwide. In most low and middle-income countries, data on neonatal deaths come primarily from household surveys. We conducted a validation study of survey data on neonatal mortality in Guinea-Bissau (West Africa). We used records from an urban health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) that monitors child survival prospectively, as our reference dataset. We selected a stratified sample of 599 women aged 15-49 years old among residents of the HDSS, and collected the birth histories of 422 participants. We cross-tabulated survey and HDSS data. We used a mathematical model to investigate biases in survey estimates of neonatal mortality. Reporting errors in survey data might lead to estimates of the neonatal mortality rate that are too high. This may limit our ability to track progress towards global health objectives. |
| Date: | 2020–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qx2kn&r=all |
| By: | Peng Nie (Xi'an Jiaotong University); Andrew E. Clarck (Paris School of Economics); Conchita D'Ambrosio (Universite du Luxembourg); Lanlin Ding (Xi'an Jiaotong University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze 1991-2015 data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey to ask how housing affects income-related health inequalities in urban China. We use the Erreygers Index (EI) to measure the health gradient, and apply a re-centered influence function (RIF) decomposition to estimate its determinants. We find pro-rich inequalities in self- reported health between 2000 and 2015 but pro-poor inequalities in objective health between 1991 and 2015. Housing conditions serve to reduce the health gradient, and especially that for objective health. Homeownership, however, exacerbates the health gradient. Improving housing conditions thus appears to be an effective way of reducing the income-health gradient in urban China. |
| Keywords: | Income-related health inequality; housing conditions; homeownership; decomposition; urban China. |
| JEL: | D63 I10 I12 R21 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2020-524&r=all |
| By: | Joseph,George; Gething,Peter William; Bhatt,Samir; Ayling,Sophie Charlotte Emi |
| Abstract: | Tanzania is home to the third highest population of stunted children in Sub-Saharan Africa, with about 2.7 million children under the age of five failing to reach their full potential of growth attainment compared with the reference population as per the World Health Organization standards. Several studies have shown that stunted growth during childhood entraps the future of children in a vicious circle of recurrent diseases, reduced human development, and lower earnings, thus increasing their likelihood of being poor when they grow up. To reduce stunting, the Government of Tanzania and development partners are introducing a convergence of multisectoral interventions adapted to local needs. However, the existing stunting data are representative only at higher administrative levels, thus making it difficult to implement these efforts. The paper uses the 2016 geo-referenced Demographic and Health Survey in conjunction with relevant spatially gridded covariate data, such as nighttime lights, water and sanitation access, vegetation index, travel time, and so on. Geospatial techniques, such as model-based statistics and Bayesian inference implemented using the INLA algorithm, along with appropriate model validation exercises are employed to develop high-resolution maps of stunting in Tanzania at 1×1-kilometer spatial resolution. The maps show that areas of consistently high stunting rates tend to be more common in rural parts of the country, especially throughout the western and southwestern border areas. There is high prevalence of low stunting in the urban areas around Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Dodoma, as well as in the south of Lake Victoria. |
| Keywords: | Reproductive Health,Early Child and Children's Health,Health Care Services Industry,Hydrology,Inequality,Nutrition |
| Date: | 2019–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8688&r=all |