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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Vasiliki Fouka; Theo Serlin |
| Abstract: | How does economic modernization affect group identity? Modernization theory emphasizes how labor migration led to the adoption of common identities. Yet economic development may reduce incentives to emigrate, preserving local cultures. We study England and Wales during the Second Industrial Revolution, a period characterized by the development of new industries and declines in transportation and communication costs. Using microdata on individuals’ names and migration decisions, we quantify identity change and its variation across space. We develop and estimate a quantitative spatial model in which migration and cultural identities are inter-dependent. Different components of economic modernization had different effects on identity change. Falling migration costs homogenized peripheral regions. In contrast, industrial development led to heterogeneity, increasing the overall prevalence of the culture of London, while also creating local identity holdouts by reducing out-migration from industrializing peripheries. Modernization promotes both national identities and persistent local identities in peripheral regions that industrialize. |
| Keywords: | migration, identity, industrialization |
| JEL: | J61 N33 N63 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11441 |
| By: | Davit Gondauri; Ekaterine Mikautadze |
| Abstract: | The research and development (R&D) phase is essential for fostering innovation and aligns with long-term strategies in both public and private sectors. This study addresses two primary research questions: (1) assessing the relationship between R&D investments and GDP through regression analysis, and (2) estimating the economic value added (EVA) that Georgia must generate to progress from a BB to a BBB credit rating. Using World Bank data from 2014-2022, this analysis found that increasing R&D, with an emphasis on AI, by 30-35% has a measurable impact on GDP. Regression results reveal a coefficient of 7.02%, indicating a 10% increase in R&D leads to a 0.70% GDP rise, with an 81.1% determination coefficient and a strong 90.1% correlation. Georgia's EVA model was calculated to determine the additional value needed for a BBB rating, comparing indicators from Greece, Hungary, India, and Kazakhstan as benchmarks. Key economic indicators considered were nominal GDP, GDP per capita, real GDP growth, and fiscal indicators (government balance/GDP, debt/GDP). The EVA model projects that to achieve a BBB rating within nine years, Georgia requires $61.7 billion in investments. Utilizing EVA and comprehensive economic indicators will support informed decision-making and enhance the analysis of Georgia's economic trajectory. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.07817 |
| By: | CARBONELL Juan Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the concept of « twin transition » using the core/periphery structure of the European automotive industry as a case study. This term has emerged in recent years as a new leitmotif in international organisations and industrial companies. The idea is that the digital and green transitions can fuel each other in a virtuous economic circle of « smart growth ». This paper defends that this concept is part of the automotive industry’s long history of socio-technical paradigms. Using the theories on the performativity of economic concepts, we deconstruct the idea of a « twin transition ». We show that it is necessary to dissociate the production process from the output in order to understand the possible interactions between the two transitions. For this, we describe the regional structure of the European automotive industry in terms of core and periphery, we show then the forms taken by digitalisation and electrification in the value chain of the European automotive industry in processes and products. Finally, we show that the concept of « twin transition » has little empirical basis, but rather aims to attract resources in the context of significant economic uncertainty and the lack of coherent industrial policy. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202405 |
| By: | Mr. Dirk V Muir; Natalija Novta; Anne Oeking |
| Abstract: | After decades of high growth, the Chinese economy is facing headwinds from slowing productivity growth and a declining workforce that are projected to lower potential growth substantially in the longer term. We project China’s potential growth over the medium to long term, showing that potential growth could slow to around 3.8 percent on average between 2025-30 and to around 2.8 percent on average over 2031-40 in the absence of major reforms. We present a reform scenario with structural reforms to lift productivity growth and rebalancing China’s growth towards more consumption, that would help China transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive, and green—growth. We use production function and general equilibrium modelling approaches to show that potential growth could remain at around 4.3 percent between 2025-40 under the reform scenario. |
| Keywords: | Potential growth; investment-led growth; rebalancing; demographic trends; structural reforms |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/238 |