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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Xindong Xue; W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury); Robbie C.M. van Aert |
| Abstract: | This research provides a comprehensive, quantitative synthesis of the empirical literature on social capital and economic growth. It assesses 957 estimates from 83 studies. Utilizing a variety of estimation procedures, we draw the following conclusions: There is strong evidence to indicate that publication bias distorts the empirical literature, causing estimates of social capital's effects to be overstated. Initial, unadjusted estimates of the overall, mean effect of social capital on economic growth are positive, small to moderately sized, and consistently statistically significant. Correcting for publication bias reduces these estimates by half or more. Our preferred estimates indicate that the average effect of social capital on economic growth is statistically insignificant and very small. However, the meta-analysis identifies a large amount of heterogeneity, indicating that social capital may have substantive effects in particular circumstances. Further investigation of moderating effects find them consistent with expectations, though they are too small to explain the heterogeneity in estimates. Analysis of different kinds of social capital finds little evidence of disparate effects on growth. |
| Keywords: | Social capital, Economic growth, Cognitive social capital, Structural social capital, Meta-analysis, Meta-regression, Publication Bias |
| JEL: | B40 O31 O40 O47 R11 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:24/08&r= |
| By: | Massimo Tamberi (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali - Universita' Politecnica delle Marche) |
| Abstract: | There is substantial disagreement regarding the rate of economic growth, particularly concerning economists' perspectives on the rate of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Some envision theoretical mechanisms implying constant growth, others have recently suggested a potential secular slowdown in TFP growth, while still others foresee an acceleration of economic growth in the near future, driven by the diffusion of new technologies (Artificial Intelligence). Understanding the direction and speed of progress is critically important for planning our future. A part of the research gap is due to the limited temporal coverage of available data sources. In this article, I attempt to bridge this gap by using an alternative (and unconventional) dataset. The analysis is technically straightforward, based on a simple approach that considers learning mechanisms. Although also the dataset used here has its limitations, it allows for an empirical analysis spanning many centuries, if not millennia. The results, thus derived from a historical approach, are very clear and hold significant implications for the future. The key message is that we should expect a progressive slowdown in the rate of scientific progress, although substantial progress will continue for the next few centuries. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; technological progress; historical perspective |
| JEL: | O47 O33 N00 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:487&r= |
| By: | Yasuhiro Nakamoto (Faculty of Informatics, Kansai University); Kazuo Mino (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Yunfang Hu (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | This study integrates the dynamic 2×2×2 Hechscher-Ohlin model with the neoclassical growth model, considering heterogeneous households, to explore the relationship between preference structures, wealth distribution, and international trade in a unified setting. We demonstrate that if households have homothetic utility functions, the long-run trade pattern depends solely on the initial distribution of capital between two countries. Conversely, if preferences are non-homothetic, the initial distribution of wealth among households also influences long-run trade patterns. Numerical examples further examine the wealth distribution in each country, showing that the initially poor can catch up with the initially rich. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Hecksher-Ohlin model, Non-homothetic preference, Heterogeneous households, Wealth distribution |
| JEL: | D31 E20 F11 F43 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1105&r= |
| By: | Richard G. Lipsey (Simon Fraser University (Professor Emeritus)) |
| Abstract: | This paper distinguishes four types of public policies that seek to encourage growth-inducing technological advance: technology, R&D, industrial, and science policies. The first three are typically treated under the single heading ‘industrial policy’, which is a source of confusion since each is administered by different agents and often with different objectives. Evidence of successes and failures of any one of the policies defined here is often incorrectly taken to apply to the other policies. Evidence for the symbiotic relation between the public and the private sectors is outlined, although typically ignored by in formal growth theories. The massive influence of science policy on economic growth, also typically ignored by in growth theories, is a largely unintended byproduct of scientific advance. A policy implication of the approach in this paper is to stress science, technology, and R&D policies, putting much less stress on industrial policy as defined here. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp24-01&r= |
| By: | Sebastián Katz (UBA); Eduardo Levy Yeyati (Universidad Torcuato di Tella) |
| Abstract: | Based on long series of per capita GDPs, we characterize the economic divergence of Argentina in the 20th century relative to a group of countries with comparable initial income per capita. We find the divergence to be considerably longer than usually conjectured, with two marked tranches in the first half of the century and in the post war period, the latter being associated with GDP underperformance despite the relative decline in population. We identify specific dates for the inflection points, discuss the context in each case, and propose a potential explanation of the divergence together with a description of the highly volatile plateau displayed since the 1990s. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:325&r= |
| By: | Colombier, Carsten |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the still unresolved issue of the growth impact of government size by analysing a historical panel data set of 17 developed countries that ranges from 1880 to 2016. The unique feature of the long-time dimension allows for conducting a kind of natural experiment. Government size is closely related to economic-policy paradigms. The time span covers different economic policy paradigms, in particular, 'laissez-faire' before World War II and Keynesian economic policy after World War II. Before WW II government size is small, after WW II it is (has grown) big. Furthermore, this paper contributes to filling a gap in the literature by testing the non-linear hypothesis (Armey curve). We take particular attention to a key shortcoming of panel-data analysis - parameter or individual heterogeneity. Overall, this analysis suggests a systematic positive, albeit quite small, linear relationship of government size with economic growth. As a consequence, rather than concentrating their attention to the sheer size of government, policy makers are advised caring for an efficiently run and highquality government sector as a prerequisite for a steady growth path. |
| Keywords: | government size, economic growth, Armey curve, historical data, robustness analysis |
| JEL: | H50 E62 C23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:297976&r= |
| By: | Dmitry Veselov (HSE University); Alexander Yarkin (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | Industrial policies, such as infrastructure investments and export tariffs, affect the allocation of labor and incomes across sectors, attracting substantial lobbying efforts by special interest groups. Yet, the link between structural change and lobbying remains underexplored. Using more than 150 years of data on parliamentary petitions in USA and Britain, we measure historical lobbying and document several stylized facts. First, lobbying over industrial policies follows a hump-shaped path in the course of structural change, while agricultural lobbying steadily declines. Second, big capitalists (manufacturers, merchants) are most active in lobbying for industrialization. Third, industrial concentration increases progressive lobbying, while concentrated landownership slows it down. We explain these patterns in a simple model of structural change augmented with a heterogeneous agents lobbying game. Model simulations match the dynamics of structural change, inequality, and lobbying for industrialization in the British data. |
| Keywords: | political economy, structural change, lobbying, wealth distribution, growth |
| JEL: | D33 D72 N10 N41 O14 O41 O43 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0260&r= |
| By: | Veselov, Dmitry; Yarkin, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Industrial policies, such as infrastructure investments and export tariffs, affect the allocation of labor and incomes across sectors, attracting substantial lobbying efforts by special interest groups. Yet, the link between structural change and lobbying remains underexplored. Using more than 150 years of data on parliamentary petitions in USA and Britain, we measure historical lobbying and document several stylized facts. First, lobbying over industrial policies follows a hump-shaped path in the course of structural change, while agricultural lobbying steadily declines. Second, big capitalists (manufacturers, merchants) are most active in lobbying for industrialization. Third, industrial concentration increases progressive lobbying, while concentrated landownership slows it down. We explain these patterns in a simple model of structural change augmented with a heterogeneous agents lobbying game. Model simulations match the dynamics of structural change, inequality, and lobbying for industrialization in the British data. |
| Keywords: | political economy, structural change, lobbying, wealth distribution, growth |
| JEL: | D33 D72 N10 N41 O14 O41 O43 P00 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1444&r= |
| By: | Charles Angelucci; Simone Meraglia; Nico Voigtländer |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework that examines the organizational challenges faced by central rulers governing large territories, where administrative power needs to be delegated to local elites. We describe how economic change can motivate rulers to empower different elites and emphasize the interaction between local and nationwide institutions. We show that rising economic potential of towns leads to local administrative power (self-governance) of urban elites. As a result, the ruler summons them to central assemblies in order to ensure effective communication and coordination between self-governing towns and the rest of the realm. This framework can explain the emergence of municipal autonomy and towns’ representation in early modern European parliaments—a blueprint for Western Europe’s institutional framework that promoted state-formation and economic growth in the centuries to follow. We provide empirical evidence for our core mechanisms and discuss how the model applies to other historical dynamics, and to alternative organizational settings. |
| JEL: | D02 D72 D73 N43 N93 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32542&r= |
| By: | Mohaddes, K.,; Raissi, M. |
| Abstract: | We estimate country-specific annual per-capita GDP losses from global warming using the most recent climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under different mitigation, adaptation, and climate variability assumptions. Our results indicate that without significant mitigation and adaptation efforts, global GDP per capita could decline by up to 24 percent under the high-emissions climate scenarios by 2100. These income losses vary significantly across the 174 countries in our sample, depending on the projected paths of temperatures and their variability. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Economic Growth, Mitigation, Adaptation, Counterfactual Analysis |
| JEL: | C33 O40 O44 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2429&r= |
| By: | Luca Pensieroso (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Alessandro Sommacal (University of Verona); Gaia Spolverini (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | We provide a historical decomposition of fertility in the United States by family type. We find that intergenerational coresidence was systematically associated with lower fertility than nuclear families, with the difference shrinking over time. This pattern is robust to controlling for several demographic and socioeconomic confounders. We build a simple, analytical model and show that a theory featuring both endogenous fertility and endogenous coresidence can rationalise the observed cross-family fertility difference. Simulations from a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium version of the model show that the model has the right qualitative behaviour, and is quantitatively meaningful. Using individual data, we discuss (and dismiss) several potential alternative explanations. |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2024006&r= |