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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Luigi Minale (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Rudi Rocha (São Paulo School of Business Administration, Getulio Vargas Foundation); Bruno Vigna (BNDES) |
| Abstract: | The article investigates the long-term economic effects of immigrant diversity. Focusing on the large immigration wave experienced by Brazil at the turn of the twentieth century, we ask whether municipalities in the State of São Paulo that received a population of immigrants characterized by a more diverse mix of origin countries ended up having better long-term economic outcomes. To identify causal effects, we leverage on unique historical individual-level data in immigrants arriving in São Paulo between 1880 and 1920, and develop an instrumental variable strategy that combines time variation in the composition of immigrants arriving from overseas with the timing of the railway network expansion in the state. We find that a one standard deviation increase in accumulated immigrant diversity in 1920 is associated with a 7-8% higher income per capita in 2000. This effect is economically relevant and robust to various identification tests. Furthermore, when exploring the mechanisms through which immigrant diversity affected long-term development, we document that municipalities that hosted more a more diverse pool of immigrants experienced (i) larger proportions of employment in manufacturing and services as well as greater occupational diversity within manufacturing in the long-term; (ii) higher investment in public goods, as measured by municipal spending on education; (iii) and higher education outputs in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | birthplace diversity, immigration, long-term development |
| JEL: | C36 N36 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2408&r=gro |
| By: | Verónica ACURIO VASCONEZ; David DESMARCHELIER; Romain RESTOUT |
| Abstract: | This paper documents a positive and significant relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and capital depreciation rate for a large sample covering more than 80 countries in recent decades. Using this result, we develop a simple Solow model with an AK production function in which a pollution externality, viewed as a stock, increases the capital depreciation rate. In the long run, it appears that whatever the magnitude of the pollution effect on capital depreciation, there is no room for endogenous growth despite the AK technology. Moreover, we observe that a sufficiently sensitive capital depreciation rate to pollution can lead to the emergence of a limit cycle near the steady state (i.e., a Hopf bifurcation), indicating that the relationship empirically documented within this paper acts as a destabilizing force for the economy. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous Capital Depreciation, Growth Model, Pollution. |
| JEL: | E22 O41 O44 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-01&r=gro |
| By: | Ochsner, Christian; Other, Lars; Thiel, Esther; Zuber, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run interaction between Germany's economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our projections using Bayesian estimation techniques. Overall, Germany's potential output growth up to 2070 will be low if current economic trends persist. In particular, the diminishing labor volume, coupled with sluggish total factor productivity and investment trend growth, contributes to the decline. Our results highlight the significance of demographic factors in shaping economic trajectories and the critical need for policy interventions to mitigate adverse effects. Our analysis can serve as valuable inputs for formulating long-term economic policies. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, production function, potential output, Germany, long-run forecast, economic growth |
| JEL: | E13 E17 E23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:284412&r=gro |