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on Economic Growth |
| By: | Sasaki, Hiroaki; Hori, Taichi; Hasegawa, Rokuhisa; Tajiri, Shigehiro; Nakamura, Kaito |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the long-run growth rate of per capita income is determined when population growth is negative. It uses the augmented Solow growth model as a tool for this investigation. The results reveal four distinct types of dynamics, depending on the parameter combinations. In all these dynamics, the long-run growth rate of per capita income remains positive. This finding implies that sustainable growth in per capita income is achievable, even in the context of negative population growth. |
| Keywords: | augmented Solow model; human capital accumulation; declining population |
| JEL: | J11 O15 O41 |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119457&r=gro |
| By: | Legaspe Francisco |
| Abstract: | Regardless of the substantial effort made by researchers, the effect that corruption has on economic growth is still under debate. Several studies identified a negative effect, but others support the idea that corruption is not in all cases harmful and that can even boost economic growth under certain conditions. This thesis is the first piece of literature using firm-level data on bribes to examine the effect that country-level corruption has on economic growth. To do so, I replicate the methodology used by Rajan & Zingales (1993). Specifically, I ask whether industrial sectors that are more sensitive to bribes develop disproportionally slower in countries with higher levels of corruption. I find this to be true in a large sample of countries over the period 2006-2021. This result supports the idea that corruption is indeed harmful to economic growth. |
| JEL: | C1 E6 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4663&r=gro |
| By: | Evgeny Kuzmin; Maksim Vlasov; Wadim Strielkowski; Marina Faminskaya; Konstantin Kharchenko |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of human capital investment in driving sustainable socio-economic growth within the energy industry. The fuel and energy sector undeniably forms the backbone of contemporary economies, supplying vital resources that underpin industrial activities, transportation, and broader societal operations. In the context of the global shift toward sustainability, it is crucial to focus not just on technological innovation but also on cultivating human capital within this sector. This is particularly relevant considering the recent shift towards green and renewable energy solutions. In this study, we utilize bibliometric analysis, drawing from a dataset of 1933 documents (represented by research papers, conference proceedings, and book chapters) indexed in the Web of Science (WoS) database. We conduct a network cluster analysis of the textual and bibliometric data using VOSViewer software. The findings stemming from our analysis indicate that investments in human capital are perceived as important in achieving long-term sustainable economic growth in the energy companies both in Russia and worldwide. In addition, it appears that the role of human capital in the energy sector is gaining more popularity both among Russian and international researchers and academics. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.06450&r=gro |
| By: | Harashima, Taiji |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I simulate how an economy grows endogenously and reaches a balanced growth path supposing that households behave under the MDC (maximum degree of comfortability)-based procedure, where MDC indicates the state at which a household feels most comfortable with its combination of income and assets. Although it is not easy to numerically simulate the path to a steady state in dynamic economic growth models in which households behave generating rational expectations, it is easy if households are supposed to behave under the MDC-based procedure to reach a steady state. The simulation results indicate that an economy can indeed grow endogenously as predicted theoretically, although some small scale effects exist. If uncompensated knowledge spillovers are restrained, however, large scale effects are generated. A lower degree of risk aversion increases the growth rate. In addition, economies converge if productivities are identical, but they diverge if they are not. |
| Keywords: | Convergence; Endogenous growth; Scale effects; Simulation; Uncompensated knowledge spillovers |
| JEL: | E17 E60 O11 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119391&r=gro |
| By: | Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso; Eva Yamila da Silva Catela; Guilherme Viegas; Fl\'avio L. Pinheiro; Dominik Hartmann |
| Abstract: | Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil's formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few -- mainly developed urban places -- have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region's industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil's knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.07469&r=gro |
| By: | Pascaline Dupas; Camille Falezan; Marie Christelle Mabeu; Pauline Rossi |
| Abstract: | Is the persistently high fertility in West Africa today rooted in the decades of forced labor migration under colonial rule? We study the case of Burkina Faso, considered the largest labor reservoir in West Africa by the French colonial authorities. Hundreds of thousands of young men were forcibly recruited and sent to work in neighboring colonies for multiple years. The practice started in the late 1910s and lasted until the late 1940s, when forced labor was replaced with voluntary wage employment. We digitize historical maps, combine data from multiple surveys, and exploit the historical, temporary partition of colonial Burkina Faso (and, more specifically, the historical land of the Mossi ethnic group) into three zones with different needs for labor to implement a spatial regression discontinuity design analysis. We find that, on the side where Mossi villages were more exposed to forced labor historically, there is more temporary male migration to Côte d'Ivoire up to today, and lower realized and desired fertility today. We show evidence suggesting that the inherited pattern of low-skill circular migration for adult men reduced the reliance on subsistence farming and the accompanying need for child labor. We can rule out women's empowerment or improvements in human and physical capital as pathways for the fertility decline. These findings contribute to the debate on the origins of family institutions and preferences, often mentioned to explain West Africa's exceptional fertility trends, showing that fertility choices respond to changes in modes of production. |
| JEL: | J13 N37 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31993&r=gro |
| By: | ARATA Yoshiyuki; MIYAKAWA Daisuke; MORI Katsuki |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates firm growth dynamics by using the theory of stochastic processes and data on corporate tax records covering almost all firms in Japan. We show that the growth path of high-growth firms (HGFs) is characterized by a single large jump rather than a gradual increase. Specifically, before the jump occurs, the growth path of a HGF is similar to that of non-HGFs, but then it experiences a rapid increase in size. This growth pattern with a jump is typical (i.e., most likely) for HGFs. To provide further empirical evidence, we consider the ratio of the growth rate in the first period to the entire growth rate over two periods. The histogram of this ratio exhibits a U-shaped curve for HGFs, indicating that high growth over the two periods is explained by high growth either in the first or second period (but not both). This U-shaped curve is consistent with the idea that a single large jump determines the growth path of HGFs. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:23087&r=gro |
| By: | Cummins, Neil; Gráda, Cormac |
| Abstract: | The role of skills and human capital during England’s Industrial Revolution is the subject of an old but still ongoing debate. This paper contributes to the debate by assessing the artisanal skills of watchmakers and watch tool makers in southwest Lancashire in the eighteenth century and their links to apprenticeship. The flexibility of the training regime and its evolution are discussed, as is the decline of the industry. |
| Keywords: | apprenticeship; Industrial Revolution |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2022–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115576&r=gro |
| By: | Silvia Rocchetta; Martina Iori; Andrea Mina; Robert Gillanders |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of different types of technological diversification on the performance of regional economies. We focus on the relatedness and unconventionality of technological capabilities as drivers of GDP and employment growth. Using economic indicators from Eurostat regional statistics and patent records from the European Patent Office (EPO) PATSTAT and the OECD RegPat databases, we estimate Panel Vector Autoregression models and generate Impulse Response Functions to assess to what extent and with what persistence relatedness and unconventionality affect growth. Our findings, which have implications for place-based innovation policies, reveal that technological relatedness has short-term effects on employment growth and negative effects on GDP growth, whereas technological unconventionality has a long-lasting positive impact on GDP growth and no effect on employment growth. |
| Keywords: | Technological capabilities; Diversification; Relatedness; Unconventionality; Innovation; Regional development |
| Date: | 2023–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/46&r=gro |
| By: | Michael Callen; Jonathan Weigel; Noam Yuchtman; Michael J. Callen |
| Abstract: | We review an emerging experimental literature studying institutional change. Institutions are a key determinant of economic growth, but the “critical junctures” in which institutions can change are not precisely defined. For example, such junctures are often identified ex post, raising methodological problems: selection on the outcome of institutional change; an inability to study beliefs, central to coordination and thus the process of institutional change; and an inability to conduct experiments to identify causal effects. We argue that critical junctures are identifiable in real-time as moments when there exists deep uncertainty about future institutions. Consistent with this conception, the papers reviewed: (i) examine changes to institutions, i.e., the “fundamental rules of the game”; (ii) are real-time studies of plausible critical junctures; and, (iii) use field experiments to achieve causal identification. Substantively, this literature examines institutional changes in state capacity and legitimacy, political inclusion, and political accountability. We also advocate more systematic measurement of beliefs about future institutions to identify critical junctures as they happen and provide an empirical proof of concept. Such work is urgent given contemporary critical junctures arising from democratic backsliding, state fragility, climate change, and conflicts over the rights of the marginalized. |
| Keywords: | institutional change, critical junctures, field experiments, fragile states, belief elicitation |
| JEL: | P00 O10 D70 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10833&r=gro |
| By: | Marco Gortan; Lorenzo Testa; Giorgio Fagiolo; Francesco Lamperti |
| Abstract: | Although high-resolution gridded climate variables are provided by multiple sources, the need for country and region-specific climate data weighted by indicators of economic activity is becoming increasingly common in environmental and economic research. We process available information from different climate data sources to provide spatially aggregated data with global coverage for both countries (GADM0 resolution) and regions (GADM1 resolution) and for a variety of climate indicators (average precipitations, average temperatures, average SPEI). We weigh gridded climate data by population density or by night light intensity – both proxies of economic activity – before aggregation. Climate variables are measured daily, monthly, and annually, covering (depending on the data source) a time window from 1900 (at the earliest) to 2023. We pipeline all the preprocessing procedures in a unified framework, which we share in the open-access Weighted Climate Data Repository web app. Finally, we validate our data through a systematic comparison with those employed in leading climate impact studies. |
| Keywords: | climate and weather data; spatial weighting; impact assessment; climate econometrics |
| Date: | 2023–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/45&r=gro |
| By: | Michael Callen; Jonathan L. Weigel; Noam Yuchtman |
| Abstract: | We review an emerging experimental literature studying institutional change. Institutions are a key determinant of economic growth, but the “critical junctures” in which institutions can change are not precisely defined. For example, such junctures are often identified ex post, raising methodological problems: selection on the outcome of institutional change; an inability to study beliefs, central to coordination and thus the process of institutional change; and an in- ability to conduct experiments to identify causal effects. We argue that critical junctures are identifiable in real-time as moments when there exists deep uncertainty about future institutions. Consistent with this conception, the papers reviewed: (i) examine changes to institutions, i.e., the “fundamental rules of the game”; (ii) are real-time studies of plausible critical junctures; and, (iii) use field experiments to achieve causal identification. Substantively, this literature examines institutional changes in state capacity and legitimacy, political inclusion, and political accountability. We also advocate more systematic measurement of beliefs about future institutions to identify critical junctures as they happen and provide an empirical proof of concept. Such work is urgent given contemporary critical junctures arising from democratic backsliding, state fragility, climate change, and conflicts over the rights of the marginalized. |
| JEL: | D70 O10 P0 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31964&r=gro |
| By: | Colin Davis; Ken-ichi Hashimoto |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how national research subsidies affect productivity growth and national welfare through adjustments in the geographic location of research and development (R&D) across countries. Our two-country framework features a tension in the firm-level innovation location decision between accessing technical knowledge and sourcing low-cost high-skilled labor. With trade costs and imperfect international knowledge diffusion, the larger country has a greater share of industry and tends to host a larger share of innovation. In this setting, we find that an R&D subsidy expands the implementing country’s share of innovation and raises the rate of productivity growth. Although the non-implementing country experiences a welfare improvement, the rising cost of the policy generates a concave relationship between the R&D subsidy and the welfare of the implementing country, yielding an optimal R&D subsidy rate. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1226&r=gro |