|
on German Papers |
| By: | Haucap, Justus; Heimeshoff, Ulrich; Lange, Mirjam |
| Abstract: | Eine moderne Telekommunikationsinfrastruktur ist für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung eines Staates von außerordentlich großer Bedeutung. Czernich et al. (2011) zeigen im Rahmen einer internationalen Studie, dass ein Anstieg in der Breitbandpenetration von 10 Prozent zu einer Steigerung des pro‐Kopf Bruttoinlandsproduktes von 0,9 bis 1,5 Prozentpunkten führt. Im zunehmenden internationalen Wettbewerb bei Big Data, Telemedizin, E‐Government und vernetzter Produktion profitieren staatliche wie auch private Akteure von einer möglichst flächendeckenden Versorgung mit hohen Bandbreiten. Dieser Erfordernis tragen die Ausbaupläne der Deutschen Telekom AG mit Vectoring Rechnung. Dazu müssen Glasfaserverbindungen ausgebaut und näher zum Endkunden verlegt werden, so dass in unmittelbarer Nähe zu den Hauptverteilern kurzfristig die Möglichkeit besteht, den Haushalten wesentlich höhere Bandbreiten zur Verfügung zu stellen. In diesen sogenannten Nahbereichen können 1,4 Millionen Haushalte erstmals mit schnellem Internet versorgt werden. Für weitere 4,3 Mio. Haushalte werden sich die Versorgung und die Wahlmöglichkeiten deutlich verbessern. Durch die Kombination von Glasfaserausbau und Vectoring entsteht nicht nur eine kurzfristig verfügbare, sondern auch kosteneffiziente Möglichkeit, die verfügbaren Bandbreiten erheblich anzuheben. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diceop:84&r=ger |
| By: | Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Hinte, Holger (IZA); Rinne, Ulf (IZA); Tobsch, Verena (E-x-AKT WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG) |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag setzt sich mit den Auswirkungen der fortschreitenden Digitalisierung auf unsere Arbeitswelt auseinander. Nach einer Diskussion möglicher Folgen dokumentiert eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme den bereits einsetzenden Wandel der Berufe und Erwerbsformen sowie die Rolle der Plattform‐Ökonomie (u.a. mit dem Phänomen der "Solo-Selbständigkeit"). Aus diesen Überlegungen werden aktuelle und künftige sozialpolitische Herausforderungen abgeleitet und Lösungsansätze diskutiert, um den Wandel gesellschaftlich fair zu gestalten. |
| Keywords: | Digitalisierung, Roboter, Automatisierung, Zukunft der Arbeit, Industrie 4.0, technischer Wandel, Sharing Economy, Plattform-Ökonomie, Arbeitsmarkt, Sozialstaat |
| JEL: | J08 J24 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izasps:sp85&r=ger |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Alexandra Krause |
| Abstract: | Germany introduced parental leave benefits eight years ago. The reform of the parental leave scheme in 2015 reacts to the experiences with this new family policy instrument. The main objective of the 2015 reform was to improve the situation of parents who plan to start working before parental leave benefits expire. We analyze the potential impact of the new reform on maternal labor supply and leave take-up of fathers. In particular we focus on the improvement for part-time leave and the new bonus that is available for four months if both spouses work between 25 and 30 hours per week. Unser Beitrag nimmt die zu erwartenden Effekte des Elterngeld Plus und der Partnerschaftsbonusmonate in den Blick. Dem Reformziel entsprechend betrachten wir zum einen die Anreize für die Erwerbsbeteiligung von Müttern im ersten und zweiten Jahr nach der Geburt und zum anderen die möglichen Wirkungen auf die Beteiligung der Väter an der Elterngeldnutzung. Das Elterngeld wurde inzwischen acht Jahre lang erprobt, und die Einführung des Elterngeld Plus reagiert auf mittlerweile vorliegende Erfahrungen und Evaluationsergebnisse, auf die sich auch unser eigener Beitrag stützt. |
| Keywords: | Parental leave reform, daddy months, maternal labor supply, gender equality |
| JEL: | J22 H31 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1592&r=ger |
| By: | Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Zusammenfassung Bescheidener Aufschwung im Osten – Bremsklotz EU-Fiskalregeln Für die mittel-, ost-und südosteuropäischen Länder (MOSOEL) ist das internationale Umfeld insbesondere von der trägen Erholung des Euro-Raumes gekennzeichnet. Die rigiden EU-Fiskalregeln sind der größte Bremsklotz für einen nachhaltigen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung in Europa. Mittelfristig erwarten wir für die MOSOEL ein BIP-Trendwachstum von bis zu 3%. Dabei ist der Haushaltskonsum vor allem in den mittel- und osteuropäischen EU-Mitgliedstaaten wachstumsbestimmend. In den Ländern des Westbalkans können auch Investitionen und Nettoexporte als wichtige Wachstumstreiber identifiziert werden. In der Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten und der Ukraine scheint die Talsohle erreicht worden zu sein. Nach einer Phase der Stagnation kann auch dort ein leichtes Wachstum erwartet werden. Österreich sollte ein Profiteur von der Erholung in den MOSOEL sein, da es sich um wichtige Handelspartner handelt. Für die österreichische Wettbewerbsfähigkeit stellen die MOSOEL aber nur eine geringe Gefahr dar. Längerfristig steigen dort die Löhne stärker als die Produktivität. Die Folgen des BREXIT stellen ein großes Risiko für ganz Europa dar. English Summary Modest recovery in the East – EU fiscal rules act as obstacle to growth The international environment for Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) is affected by the weak recovery in the euro area. The rigid EU fiscal rules are an important obstacle to sustainable economic revival in Europe. Over the medium term, we expect a GDP trend growth rate of up to 3% for CESEE. Especially for the EU members of Central and Eastern Europe, household consumption will be an important component of economic growth. In the countries of the Western Balkans also investment and net exports will be important growth drivers. In the Commonwealth of Independent States and in Ukraine the economic downturn has bottomed out. After a period of stagnation, slow growth can be expected also there. Austria should gain from the recovery in CESEE, given that the region is home to important Austrian trading partners. These pose, however, only little danger for Austrian competitiveness. There, over the longer term wages will be rising faster than productivity. The BREXIT implications pose a substantial risk for all of Europe. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic analysis, international trade, competitiveness, consumption, investment, global financial crisis |
| JEL: | E20 F34 G01 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:4&r=ger |
| By: | Stephane Verani (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | Which financial frictions matter in the aggregate? This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance a firm with a long-term contract. The contract is constrained efficient because firm revenue is costly to monitor and entrepreneurs may default. The cost of monitoring firms and the entrepreneurs' outside options determine the significance of moral hazard relative to limited enforcement for financial contracting. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, I find that the relative welfare loss from financial frictions is about 5 percent in terms of aggregate consumption with moral hazard, while it is 1 percent with limited enforcement. Reforms designed to strengthen contract enforcement increase aggregate consumption in the short-run, but their long-run effects are modest when monitoring costs are high. Weak contract enforcement contribute to aggregate fluctuations by amplifying the effect of aggregate technological shocks, but moral hazard does not. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:4&r=ger |
| By: | Koester, Ulrich; Loy, Jens-Peter |
| Abstract: | Der Gesetzgeber der Europäischen Union (EU) hat die Europäische Kommission mit der Überprüfung der Maßnahmen der ersten Säule der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) beauftragt, insbesondere der direkten Einkommensstützung. Dazu hat der Gesetzgeber die politischen Ziele dargelegt und die EU-Kommission angewiesen, Wirkungsindikatoren für eine Bewertung festzulegen. Im folgenden Policy Brief wird dargelegt, dass die EUKommission zwar diese Aufgabe übernehmen musste; diese aber nicht auf der Grundlage der üblichen, allgemein von Wirtschaftsexperten angewandten Methoden erfüllt werden konnte. Eine notwendige Voraussetzung wäre eine klare Definition und Quantifizierung des Zielerreichungsgrades gewesen. Der Gesetzgeber hat aber keine eindeutig definierten Ziele vorgegeben und die EU-Kommission hat keine klaren Zielvorgaben zur Messung der erwarteten positiven Veränderungen durch die politischen Interventionen vorgelegt. Darüber hinaus löst der Ansatz der EU-Kommission ein grundlegendes Problem nicht: es wird kein Vergleich zwischen Situationen mit und ohne Direktzahlungen ermöglicht. Somit kann die EU-Kommission die Notwendigkeit von Direktzahlungen nicht auf der Grundlage von Diagnosen nachweisen und die Wirksamkeit und Effizienz der Maßnahmen belegen. Die EU-Kommission verwendet die so genannten Wirkungsindikatoren auf der Grundlage des gesetzlichen Vorschlags. Zur Zuordnung spezieller Ziele wurden bestimmte Indikatoren ausgewählt (es wird z. B. davon ausgegangen, dass veränderte Unternehmensgewinne zur Veränderung des Ziels "rentable Erzeugung" beitragen). Dieser Artikel belegt, dass diese Beziehung hinterfragt werden muss, ebenso wie die Bedeutung des Wirkungsindikators "Faktoreinkommen". Die von der EU-Kommission verwendeten Wirkungsindikatoren liefern keine Informationen zur direkten Auswirkung auf die speziellen Zielvariablen. Ferner konzentriert sich der Ansatz der EU-Kommission nur auf potenzielle Vorteile und vernachlässigt die ökonomischen Kosten völlig. |
| Abstract: | The legislator of the European Union (EU) has commissioned the European Commission (EC) to evaluate Pillar 1 measures of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), particularly direct income payments. The legislator has laid out the policy objectives and has instructed the EC to specify the impact indicators for the evaluation. This policy brief argues that the EC had to accept the task, which could not be solved with the state-of-the-art methodology generally followed by professional economists. However, the objectives have not been clearly defined by the legislator, and the EC has failed to suggest a clear definition of objectives to measure the expected positive changes resulting from the policy intervention. Moreover, the approach of the EC does not solve the identification problem; it failed to compare the situation with and without direct payments. Thus, the EC is unable to justify the need for direct payments based on its diagnosis and to show that the measure is effective and efficient. The EC uses so-called impact indicators in line with the proposal of the legislator. Specific indicators have been selected to relate to specific objectives (e. g., changes in entrepreneurial income are considered to contribute to the change in the objective 'variable production'). This article argues that this relationship has to be challenged. The same conclusion holds for the impact indicator 'factor income'. The impact indicators used by the EC provide no information about the direct impact on the specific objective variables. Moreover, the EC approach only focuses on potential benefits, and competely neglects economic costs. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:26&r=ger |
| By: | Koester, Ulrich; Loy, Jens-Peter |
| Abstract: | The legislator of the European Union (EU) has commissioned the European Commission (EC) to evaluate Pillar 1 measures of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), particularly direct income payments. The legislator has laid out the policy objectives and has instructed the EC to specify the impact indicators for the evaluation. This policy brief argues that the EC had to accept the task, which could not be solved with the state-of-the-art methodology generally followed by professional economists. However, the objectives have not been clearly defined by the legislator, and the EC has failed to suggest a clear definition of objectives to measure the expected positive changes resulting from the policy intervention. Moreover, the approach of the EC does not solve the identification problem; it failed to compare the situation with and without direct payments. Thus, the EC is unable to justify the need for direct payments based on its diagnosis and to show that the measure is effective and efficient. The EC uses so-called impact indicators in line with the proposal of the legislator. Specific indicators have been selected to relate to specific objectives (e. g., changes in entrepreneurial income are considered to contribute to the change in the objective 'variable production'). This article argues that this relationship has to be challenged. The same conclusion holds for the impact indicator 'factor income'. The impact indicators used by the EC provide no information about the direct impact on the specific objective variables. Moreover, the EC approach only focuses on potential benefits, and competely neglects economic costs. |
| Abstract: | Der Gesetzgeber der Europäischen Union (EU) hat die Europäische Kommission mit der Überprüfung der Maßnahmen der ersten Säule der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) beauftragt, insbesondere der direkten Einkommensstützung. Dazu hat der Gesetzgeber die politischen Ziele dargelegt und die EU-Kommission angewiesen, Wirkungsindikatoren für eine Bewertung festzulegen. Im folgenden Policy Brief wird dargelegt, dass die EUKommission zwar diese Aufgabe übernehmen musste; diese aber nicht auf der Grundlage der üblichen, allgemein von Wirtschaftsexperten angewandten Methoden erfüllt werden konnte. Eine notwendige Voraussetzung wäre eine klare Definition und Quantifizierung des Zielerreichungsgrades gewesen. Der Gesetzgeber hat aber keine eindeutig definierten Ziele vorgegeben und die EU-Kommission hat keine klaren Zielvorgaben zur Messung der erwarteten positiven Veränderungen durch die politischen Interventionen vorgelegt. Darüber hinaus löst der Ansatz der EU-Kommission ein grundlegendes Problem nicht: es wird kein Vergleich zwischen Situationen mit und ohne Direktzahlungen ermöglicht. Somit kann die EU-Kommission die Notwendigkeit von Direktzahlungen nicht auf der Grundlage von Diagnosen nachweisen und die Wirksamkeit und Effizienz der Maßnahmen belegen. Die EU-Kommission verwendet die so genannten Wirkungsindikatoren auf der Grundlage des gesetzlichen Vorschlags. Zur Zuordnung spezieller Ziele wurden bestimmte Indikatoren ausgewählt (es wird z. B. davon ausgegangen, dass veränderte Unternehmensgewinne zur Veränderung des Ziels "rentable Erzeugung" beitragen). Dieser Artikel belegt, dass diese Beziehung hinterfragt werden muss, ebenso wie die Bedeutung des Wirkungsindikators "Faktoreinkommen". Die von der EU-Kommission verwendeten Wirkungsindikatoren liefern keine Informationen zur direkten Auswirkung auf die speziellen Zielvariablen. Ferner konzentriert sich der Ansatz der EU-Kommission nur auf potenzielle Vorteile und vernachlässigt die ökonomischen Kosten völlig. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:26e&r=ger |
| By: | Levoshko, Tamila |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Studie untersucht erstmalig für die Ukraine und Polen, wie stark sich das Wirtschaftswachstum der räumlich benachbarten Regionen auf die Wachstumsrate einer Region auswirkt. Die empirische Analyse erfolgt für den Zeitraum 2004-2012 anhand des Instrumentalvariablenschätzers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass es negative interregionale Wachstumseffekte in der Ukraine gibt, in Polen hingegen positive. Die Ergebnisse bleiben robust in Bezug auf die Spezifikation der räumlichen Gewichtungsmatrix. Zudem wird festgestellt, dass die räumlichen FDI-Spillover-Effekte einen Einfluss auf das regionale Wirtschaftswachstum in beiden untersuchten Ländern haben. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Spatial Effects; FDI-Spillover-Effects; Spatial Weight Matrix; Ukraine; Poland; Transition |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0616&r=ger |
| By: | Welter, Friederike; Levering, Britta; May-Strobl, Eva |
| Abstract: | Der Mittelstand wandelt sich seit Jahren. Angesichts eines neuen Selbstverständnisses im Mittelstand sollte sich daher auch die Mittelstandspolitik weiterentwickeln. Empfohlen wird eine rahmenorientierte Politik mit spezifischen Maßnahmen, die Einstellungen, Möglichkeiten und Fähigkeiten zum Unternehmertum positiv beeinflussen. Konkret bedeutet dies: Statt Nachteilsausgleich zu betreiben, sollte die Mittelstandspolitik an den Stärken ansetzen und die Potenziale des Mittelstands zur Erreichung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ziele nutzen. Mittelstandspolitik ist eine Querschnittsaufgabe, denn nur gemeinsam mit anderen politischen Akteuren können die Besonderheiten des Mittelstands zur Geltung gebracht werden. Auch sollte sie die heterogenen Teilgruppen differenziert ansprechen, ohne dass jedoch eine Ausdifferenzierung in zahlreiche Förderprogramme stattfindet. |
| Abstract: | The German Mittelstand has been undergoing considerable change for several years now. In the light of a new self-perception of the Mittelstand, policies targeting the Mittelstand should adjust accordingly. We recommend a framework-oriented policy comprising specific measures which positively influence attitudes, opportunities and skills with regard to entrepreneurship. Policy should not compensate for disadvantages but should rather focus on the strengths of the Mittelstand and use its potential in order to reach overall economic and social aims. Mittelstand policies are a cross-sectional task, since the specific features and capabilities of the Mittelstand can only be fully exploited if the relevant policy makers and stakeholders co-operate. Policy should also specifically address the heterogeneous subgroups of the Mittelstand; however, without offering a broad range of different support programs for each group. |
| Keywords: | Mittelstand,Mittelstandspolitik,Rahmenpolitik,Nachteilsausgleich,German Mittelstand,policies on Mittelstand enterprises,business framework policy,compensation for disadvantages |
| JEL: | L53 O43 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmmat:247&r=ger |
| By: | Klaus Wälde (Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz); Agnes Moors (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | Positive and negative feelings were central to the development of economics, especially in utility theory in classical economics. While neoclassical utility theory ignored feelings, behavioral economics more recently reintroduced feelings in utility theory. Beyond feelings, economic theorists use full-fledged specific emotions to explain behavior that otherwise could not be understood or they study emotions out of interest for the emotion itself. While some analyses display a strong overlap between psychological thinking and economic modelling, in most cases there is still a large gap between economic and psychological approaches to emotion research. Ways how to reduce this gap are discussed. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1612&r=ger |
| By: | Wrase, Michael |
| Abstract: | Artikel 24 der Behindertenrechtskonvention gewährleistet das Recht auf inklusive Schulbildung für Menschen mit Behinderung. Förderschulen müssen schrittweise aufgelöst werden; ein vorgebliches "Elternwahlrecht" ist mit der Konvention nicht vereinbar. An den Regelschulen sind die Bedingungen für die inklusive Beschulung zu schaffen. Die Politik muss die dafür erforderlichen Mittel bereitstellen. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbrbi:33&r=ger |
| By: | Romero, Indira; Díaz, Verónica; Aguirre M., Alejandro |
| Abstract: | En este documento se presentan, en una primera instancia, las restricciones detectadas a lo largo de la cadena de valor del snack nutritivo elaborado a partir de fruta deshidratada en El Salvador. El diagnóstico que se elaboró fue presentado en una mesa de diálogo para validar dichas restricciones y consensuar perspectivas entre los actores relevantes de la cadena de valor. En una segunda instancia, con los resultados de la discusión sobre el diagnóstico, la CEPAL propuso cinco programas con un total de 14 estrategias que igualmente fueron validadas por medio de un proceso participativo público y privado en otra mesa de diálogo. Los cinco programas propuestos y que se describen con detalle en este documento fueron: a) Gobernanza de la cadena de fruta deshidratada; b) Capacitación y entrenamiento del recurso humano; c) Inclusión de pequeños productores de fruta; d) Innovación y calidad en frutales y deshidratados; y, e) Comercialización para la consolidación del mercado interno y de exportación. |
| Keywords: | AGROINDUSTRIA, INDUSTRIA ALIMENTARIA, FRUTA SECA, PEQUEÑAS EMPRESAS, EMPRESAS MEDIANAS, EXPORTACIONES, COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL, DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL, AGROINDUSTRY, FOOD INDUSTRY, DRIED FRUIT, SMALL ENTERPRISES, MEDIUM ENTERPRISES, EXPORTS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:40251&r=ger |
| By: | Klepper, Gernot; Dovern, Jonas; Rickels, Wilfried; Barben, Daniel; Goeschl, Timo; Harnisch, Sebastian; Heyen, Daniel; Janich, Nina; Maas, Achim; Matzner, Nils; Scheffran, Jürgen; Uther, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | [Einleitung] Der Begriff Climate Engineering (CE) fasst verschiedene Technologien zusammen, mit denen bewusst in das Klimasystem der Erde eingegriffen wird, um den anthropogenen Klimawandel zu begrenzen. Dabei lassen sich die CE-Technologien von den herkömmlichen Vermeidungs- und Anpassungsmaßnahmen durch die Tatsache abgrenzen, dass sie ansetzen, nachdem Treibhausgase in die Atmosphäre emittiert wurden, aber bevor es zu einer Anpassung an die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels kommt (Keith 2000). Sie können danach in zwei Gruppen eingeteilt werden, je nachdem ob sie eingesetzt werden, um die atmosphärische Treibhausgaskonzentration zu senken - und damit die Ursache des Klimawandels zurückzuführen - oder ob sie eingesetzt werden, um in die Strahlungsbilanz der Erde einzugreifen und damit die Symptome des Klimawandels abzumildern. Die Technologien der ersten Gruppe werden als Carbon Dioxid Removal (CDR)-Technologien und jene der anderen als Radiation Management (RM)-Technologien bezeichnet. Dabei ist Radiation Management der weitere Begriff, da sowohl Technologien zur direkten Beeinflussung der kurzwelligen (SRM) als auch der langwelligen (TRM) Strahlung beinhaltet sind. Entsprechend könnten Technologien zur ursächlichen Rückführung des Klimawandels eigentlich auch als Concentration Management bezeichnet werden, da theoretisch die atmosphärische Konzentration verschiedener Treibhausgase manipuliert werden könnte (Rickels et al. 2011: 41). Da aber derzeit nur die Konzentration von Kohlendioxid (CO2) beeinflusst wird, wird in der vorliegenden Studie der engere Begriff CDR verwendet. [...] |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkbw:8&r=ger |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell |
| Abstract: | The 2016 Trustees Report contains no surprises. The program faces a 75-year deficit of 2.66 percent of taxable payrolls – virtually unchanged from last year – and the Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program trust funds continue to be scheduled for exhaustion in 2034. Largely because of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, the life of the DI trust fund has been extended by seven years. As chair of the Social Security Advisory Board’s 2015 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods, I was particularly interested in the extent to which the Trustees adopted the Panel’s recommendations. They did reduce the long-run assumptions of inflation and real interest rates from last year and boosted the assumption on immigration, as the Panel recommended. Personally, I am delighted that the Trustees did not adopt our proposals on mortality improvement given the slowdown seen since 2009. This brief updates the numbers for 2016 and puts the current report in perspective. It also discusses the new mortality trends; the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015; the growing enthusiasm for expanding Social Security; the importance of considering Social Security “legacy debt” separately when constructing financing packages; and the continuing absence of replacement rate data from the Trustees Report. The bottom line remains the same. Social Security faces a manageable financing shortfall over the next 75 years, which should be addressed soon to share the burden more equitably across cohorts, to restore confidence in the nation’s major retirement program, and to give people time to adjust to needed changes. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2016-10&r=ger |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Even when all students, including the most disadvantaged, have easy access to the Internet,a digital divide, based on socio-economic status, still persists in how students use technology. In the five Nordic countries, as well as in Hong Kong-China, the Netherlands and Switzerland, over 98% of disadvantaged students have access to the Internet at home. By contrast, in some low- and middle-income countries, many disadvantaged students have access to the Internet only at school, if at all. In 2012, disadvantaged students spent at least as much time on line as advantaged students, on average across OECD countries. In 21 out of 42 countries and economies, disadvantaged students spent more time on line than advantaged students. In all countries/economies, what students do with computers, from using e-mail to reading news on the Internet, is related to students’ socio-economic status. Advantaged students are more likely than disadvantaged students to search for information or read news on line. Disadvantaged students, on the other hand, tend to use the Internet to chat or play videogames at least as often as advantaged students do. |
| Date: | 2016–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:64-en&r=ger |
| By: | Jenny Carolina Hernández Cardozo; Adriana Carolina Silva Arias; Jaime Andrés Sarmiento Espinel |
| Abstract: | La adolescencia es una etapa de transición de la acumulación de capital humano a través del sistema educativo a la acumulación a través del mercado laboral. Este artículo analiza el perfil sociodemográfico de los adolescentes colombianos según su condición educacional y laboral. Para ello, se estimó, mediante un análisis logístico multinomial diferenciado por sexo, la probabilidad de cada uno de los posibles estados de actividad dadas algunas características del perfil sociodemográfico. Los resultados indican que los adolescentes que ni estudian ni trabajan presentan una significativa diferenciación de género. Particularmente, las mujeres mantienen roles intrafamiliares que limitan la igualdad de oportunidades de trayectorias educacionales y laborales. |
| Keywords: | Adolescencia, sistema educativo, estado ocupacional, división del trabajo por género |
| JEL: | D13 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014791&r=ger |
| By: | Romain Baeriswyl (Swiss National Bank, Boersenstrasse 15, 8022 Zurich, Switzerland); Camille Cornand (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Bruno Ziliotto (Paris Dauphine University, PSL Research University, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny, F-75016 Paris, France) |
| Abstract: | While the central bank observes the market activity to assess economic fundamentals, it shapes the market outcome through its policy interventions. The more the central bank influences the market, the more it spoils the informational content of economic aggregates. How should the central bank act and communicate when it derives its information from observing the market? This paper analyses the optimal central bank's action and disclosure under endogenous central bank's information for three operational frameworks: pure communication, action and communication, and signaling action. When the central bank takes an action, it would be optimal for the central bank to be fully opaque to prevent its disclosure from deteriorating the information quality of market outcomes. However, in the realistic case where central bank's action is observable, it may be optimal to refrain from implementing any action. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous information, public information, endogenous information, overreaction, transparency, coordination |
| JEL: | D82 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1623&r=ger |
| By: | Haack, Frederik; Nagel, Manuel; Richters, Oliver; Schäfer, Ernst; Wunderlich, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Abschlussbericht des Workshops „Energieeffizienz & Rebound-Effekte im Kontext der Energiewende“ bei der NachDenkstatt 2013, Oldenburg |
| Abstract: | Final report of the workshop “Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effects in the Context of the Energiewende” during the NachDenkstatt 2013, Oldenburg, Germany |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency,rebound effects,energy transition,Energiewende |
| JEL: | P18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:142463&r=ger |
| By: | Joonhwi Joo (University of Chicago); Ali Hortacsu (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We develop a demand estimation framework with observed and unobserved product char- acteristics based on CES preferences. We show that our demand system can nest the logit demand system with observed and unobserved product characteristics, which has been widely used since Berry (1994); Berry et al. (1995). Furthermore, the demand system we develop can directly accommodate zero market shares by separating the extensive and the intensive margins. We apply our framework to the scanner data of cola sales, which shows that the estimated demand curves can even be upward sloping if zero market shares are not properly accommodated. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:36&r=ger |
| By: | Balasubramanyan, Lakshmi (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Berger, Allen N.; Koepke, Matthew (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Bouwman, Christa H. S. |
| Abstract: | Little is known about how lead banks in the syndicated loan market use their private information about loan quality. We formulate and test two hypotheses, the Signaling Hypothesis and Sophisticated Syndicate Hypothesis. To measure private information, we use Shared National Credit (SNC) internal loan ratings, which we make comparable across banks using concordance tables. We find that favorable private information is associated with higher loan retention by lead banks for term loans, consistent with empirical domination of the Signaling Hypothesis, while neither hypothesis dominates for revolvers. Differences in syndicate structure at least partially explain this disparity. |
| Keywords: | lead bank; private information; loan sales; syndication; |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1616&r=ger |
| By: | Adil Khan Miankhel (Embassy of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Along with other routes, the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) is being used by informal traders for smuggling goods into Pakistan. Despite enforcement measures, smuggling continues. Informal traders import goods into Afghanistan, and then route those goods back to Pakistan through informal channels to take advantage from the arbitrage opportunity provided by the differences in applied tariff/taxes between the two countries. Therefore, in addition to strict enforcement measures, the issue of informal trade needs to be handled through incentive measures. |
| JEL: | F13 O24 O19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:wpaper:25650&r=ger |
| By: | Adil Khan Miankhel (Embassy of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Along with other routes, the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) is being used by informal traders for smuggling goods into Pakistan. Despite enforcement measures, smuggling continues. Informal traders import goods into Afghanistan, and then route those goods back to Pakistan through informal channels to take advantage from the arbitrage opportunity provided by the differences in applied tariff/taxes between the two countries. Therefore, in addition to strict enforcement measures, the issue of informal trade needs to be handled through incentive measures. |
| JEL: | F13 O24 O19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:25650&r=ger |
| By: | Bier, Solveig; Gersch, Martin; Wessel, Lauri; Tolksdorf, Robert; Knoll, Nina |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201611&r=ger |
| By: | Siekmann, Helmut |
| Abstract: | Das Ergebnis des Volksentscheids im Vereinigten Königreich ist ein Weckruf. Alle Entscheidungsträger der Europäischen Union und ihrer Mitgliedstaaten sind aufgerufen, grundlegende Reformen der Verfassung einer Europäischen Union, möglicherweise nur noch einer europäischen "Kontinentalunion" unverzüglich in Angriff zu nehmen. Unverzüglich bedeutet, einen Reformprozess nicht erst dann zu beginnen, wenn die Verhandlungen über ein Austrittsabkommen beendet worden sind. Eine Rückentwicklung der Europäischen Union zu einer bloßen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft dürfte dabei keine Lösung sein. Es ist jetzt angezeigt, offen und - notfalls kontrovers - zu diskutieren, wie ein künftiger Bundesstaat auf europäischer Ebene aussehen könnte. |
| Keywords: | Brexit,Europäische Union,Vereinigtes Königreich |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safepl:53&r=ger |
| By: | Parada, Jairo |
| Abstract: | Despite the deep impact of the 2008s Great Recession, Department of Economics around the world keep teaching the neoclassical paradigm as it nothing happened. Economics´ teaching, especially at the undergraduate level, does not leave room for a pluralist background, although somewhat similar process happens at the graduate level. Global dominance of approaches market oriented, based on an individualistic ontology, a methodological deductivism and the massive use of mathematical models since the last three decades, have been closing the possibilities of different approaches. In this essay, possible causes behind this phenomenon are explored, and several proposals are presented about how a more integral and plural Microeconomics could be taught, and a more grounded Macroeconomics involved with today´s problems, and a development theory that does not give up with the theoretical richness of the Latin American traditions, could be also presented to students. The main criteria would be to endow our graduates with a more versatile vision about economic thought and economic theory, aiming toward the opening of new and creative approaches about public policies that would be able to solve our structural problems. Several concrete suggestions are offered regarding curriculums and books, and mechanism to overcome the Procrustean bed that incorporates the teaching of the dominant approach only. At the end, we would have creative professionals and conscious about the myriad of possibilities that a pluralist approach of economics science brings about, and new avenues of creative ideas will be opened to implement such policies. This proposal implies a more audacious curriculum and less timid toward the critique of the dominant cathedral of the main current of thought in Economics. |
| Keywords: | economic crisis, pluralist economics, economics teaching |
| JEL: | A2 A22 A23 |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72224&r=ger |
| By: | Jo, Tae-Hee |
| Abstract: | The business enterprise directs and controls the social provisioning process. Enterprise decisions on price, investment, output and employment, in particular, directly affect the material basis of society as well as the material standard of living of working class households. The understanding the structure of and changes in the capitalist capitalists system thus requires a theory of the business enterprise that offers relevant and convincing explanations of business decisions and actions embedded in the wider social context. Such a theory must replace the mainstream-neoclassical theory of the firm, which is not only theoretically incoherent but also practically irrelevant since it confines itself to the hypothetical market structure and individual optimizing behavior. With this rationale this chapter attempts to build a heterodox theory of the business enterprises incorporating contributions made by various theoretical traditions in heterodox economics. |
| Keywords: | Heterodox Microeconomics; Social Provisioning Process; Business Enterprise; Going Concern; Monetary Theory of Production; Effective Demand; Surplus Approach; Strategic Enterprise Decisions |
| JEL: | B21 B51 B52 D21 |
| Date: | 2016–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72426&r=ger |
| By: | Chemla, Gilles; Hennessy, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Double-blind RCTs are viewed as the gold standard in eliminating placebo effects and identifying non-placebo physiological effects. Expectancy theory posits that subjects have better present health in response to better expected future health. We show that if subjects Bayesian update about efficacy based upon physiological responses during a single-stage RCT, expected placebo effects are generally unequal across treatment and control groups. Thus, the difference between mean health across treatment and control groups is a biased estimator of the mean non-placebo physiological effect. RCTs featuring low treatment probabilities are robust: Bias approaches zero as the treated group measure approaches zero. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian updating; bias; control; double-blind RCTs; drug; placebo; treatment |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11360&r=ger |
| By: | Annika Pape (Leuphana University of Lueneburg); Thomas Wein (Leuphana University of Lueneburg) |
| Abstract: | The increasing number of Smartphone-Apps and web-based tools, e.g. route planners, improve the transparency of taxi rides with regard to prices and routing. Trips can be planned easily and the payment is safe and uncomplicated. These innovations are very important in the recent discussion about the necessity of regulatory intervention in the taxi market. This is mainly because technical innovations reduce asymmetric distributed information between market participants. However, asymmetric information is not the only source of market failure that requires the state to interfere in market activity. The provision of taxis yields an externality that might legitimate market interference. In order to understand the mechanisms and theoretical arguments, the paper refers to a model by Cairns und Liston-Heyes (1994) as well as Frankena (1984) to generate empirically testable hypotheses. Importantly, the empirical part of the paper tests whether the regulator takes the costs structures into account and, therefore, acts for the purpose of either public or private interests. We analyze price differences in 393 tariff regulations with respect to several variables such as urban or rural area, western or eastern Germany, the existence of an airport or a fair, the validity of the tariff regulation as well as the density of population. The results suggest that the regulator for the most of the considered variables takes the cost structures in the taxi market into account. Nonetheless, the population variable seems questionable. The reasons for the puzzling results might refer to different perceptions with regard to waiting time in sparsely populated areas. In sum, the results implicate that technical inventions related to the taxi market do no longer justify an obligatory knowledge test of streets and important places (Ortskundeprüfung). These reforms are likely to revolutionize the mobility market in large cities because the taxies are going to be superseded by livery vehicles (Mietwagen). In order to save the taxi sector from ruin, a regulation of both the taxi and the livery vehicle market seems to be an alternative. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lue:wpaper:317&r=ger |
| By: | Shaolin Ji; Xiaomin Shi |
| Abstract: | This paper concerns the recursive utility maximization problem. We assume that the coefficients of the wealth equation and the recursive utility are concave. Then some interesting and important cases with nonlinear and nonsmooth coefficients satisfy our assumption. After given an equivalent backward formulation of our problem, we employ the Fenchel-Legendre transform and derive the corresponding variational formulation. By the convex duality method, the primal "sup-inf" problem is translated to a dual minimization problem and the saddle point of our problem is derived. Finally, we obtain the optimal terminal wealth. To illustrate our results, three cases for investors with ambiguity aversion are explicitly worked out under some special assumptions. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00721&r=ger |
| By: | Sergey Chernenko; Adi Sunderam |
| Abstract: | We study liquidity transformation in mutual funds using a novel data set on their cash holdings. To provide investors with claims that are more liquid than the underlying assets, funds engage in substantial liquidity management. Specifically, they hold substantial amounts of cash, which they use to accommodate inflows and outflows rather than transacting in the underlying portfolio assets. This is particularly true for funds with illiquid assets and at times of low market liquidity. We provide evidence suggesting that mutual funds’ cash holdings are not large enough to fully mitigate price impact externalities created by the liquidity transformation they engage in. |
| JEL: | G20 G23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22391&r=ger |
| By: | Massimiliano Vatiero (Institute of Law (IDUSI), and Institute of Economics (IdEP), Facoltà di Economia, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera) |
| Abstract: | The Swiss economy represents an exception to the legal origin theory (e.g., Roe (2006)). Although Switzerland is a country belonging to the civil law family, many of its public companies have diffused corporate ownership, as do those in common law countries. This paper maintains that the Swiss exception relies on the complementarity between corporate ownership and policies addressing employment protection and innovation. The Swiss case presents two lessons: first, the current corporate governance is the result of a long and composite path in which politics plays a pivotal role; second, the institutional differences and similarities across countries, which one would try to explain along with the legal origin theory, can derive diversely from additional politics-based accounts, such as those referring to policies on employment protection and innovation. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance and ownership, innovation, employment protection, institutional complementarity, Swiss economy |
| JEL: | G30 J50 P16 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpidep:1606&r=ger |
| By: | Manfred Elsig; Bernard M. Hoekman; Joost Pauwelyn |
| Abstract: | International law, political science and economics scholars are all concerned with analyzing the performance of the WTO as an organization. In this paper we focus on the objectives that these different disciplines attribute to the WTO and how performance is assessed against these objectives. The literature in all three fields is vibrant, but the focus of each discipline is often on very different dimensions of WTO performance. While this implies significant complementarity across disciplines it also suggests potential opportunity costs in foregone synergies. Even when similar phenomena are the focus of analysis, different concepts, connotations and labels makes cross-disciplinary debate less efficient or prohibits it altogether. Greater effort to promote cross-fertilization across disciplines would enrich and strengthen research on the performance of the WTO. |
| Keywords: | International cooperation, WTO, performance evaluation, multidisciplinary analysis |
| JEL: | F02 F13 F53 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/13&r=ger |
| By: | Diwan, Ishac; Jamal Ibrahim Haidar |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level census data, we determine how politically-connected firms (PCFs) reduce job creation in Lebanon. After observing that large firms account for the bulk of net job creation, we find that PCFs are larger and create more jobs, but are also less productive, than non-PCFs in their sectors. On a net basis, at the sector-level, each additional PCF reduces jobs created by 7.2% and jobs created by non-PCFs by 11.3%. These findings support the notion that politically-connected firms are used for clientelistic purposes in Lebanon, exchanging privileges for jobs that benefit their patrons? supporters. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:414186&r=ger |
| By: | Yu-Hsiang Lei; Guy Michaels |
| Abstract: | We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50%. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery. |
| Keywords: | natural resources; resource curse; petroleum; armed conflict; civil war |
| JEL: | O13 Q33 Q34 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:57562&r=ger |
| By: | Anne Boring (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a unique database from a French university to analyze gender biases in student evaluations of teachers (SETs). The results of generalized ordered logit regressions and fixed-effects models suggest that male teachers tend to receive higher SET scores because of students' gender biases. Male students in particular express a strong bias in their favor: male students are approximately 30% more likely to give an excellent overall satisfaction score to male teachers compared to female teachers. The different teaching dimensions that students value in men and women tend to correspond to gender stereotypes. The teaching dimensions for which students perceive a comparative advantage for women (such as course preparation and organization) tend to be more time-consuming for the teacher, compared to the teaching dimensions that students value more in men (such as class leadership skills). Men are perceived as being more knowledgeable (male gender stereotype) and obtain higher SET scores than women, but students appear to learn as much from women as from men, suggesting that female teachers are as knowledgeable as men. Finally, I find that if women increased students' continuous assessment grades by 7.5% compared to the grades given by their male colleagues, they could obtain similar overall satisfaction scores as men. Yet, women do not act on this incentive (men and women give similar continuous assessment grades), suggesting that female teachers are unaware of students' gender biases. These biases have strong negative consequences for female academics, who may spend more time on teaching to try to obtain high SET scores, reducing time available for research. The results suggest that better teaching is not necessarily measured by SETs. |
| Keywords: | Incentives; Teaching effectiveness; Student evaluations of teaching; Gender biases and stereotypes |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1seuirq4ak9b9bouu1j29ebui7&r=ger |
| By: | Rachel Brewster; Claire Brunel; Anna Maria Mayda |
| Abstract: | In this paper we claim that, in the WTO Appellate Body (AB)’s ruling in US — Countervailing Measures (China), the AB decision has not put in question the practice of imposing countervailing duties (CVDs). While the US has formally “lost” the case, a change in the procedures and tests used to motivate the CVD will allow the US to continue using this policy tool on the specified products. From an economic point of view, this is not welcome news since CVDs have the standard distortionary effects of tariffs and could go against environmental goals. From a political-economy point of view, the CVDs in this case appear driven by pressure of domestic manufacturers of clean energy technology and products. |
| Keywords: | Environmental goods, countervailing duties, WTO. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/69&r=ger |
| By: | Kiesel, Florian |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis brought increased attention to the importance of rating agencies and their valuation process. There is a broad consensus that credit rating agencies bear at least some responsibility for the crisis. Their ratings were too lax, and they were unable to detect any deterioration of the issuer’s credit quality in a timely manner. This thesis offers a comprehensive analysis of the effect of credit rating adjustments on the debt and equity markets and the efficiency of the CDS market. By not only examining the impact of rating changes in general, but also in different regions and during the financial crisis, clearer conclusions can be drawn in the importance of rating changes. In addition, the efficiency of the CDS market and one of the first worldwide CDS regulations offer valuable insights in the understanding of credit valuation. This cumulative dissertation comprises four stand-alone papers. All papers have been published or accepted for publication and are available on the respective journal website. |
| Keywords: | Ausfallversicherung, Ratingagentur, Rating, Kreditwürdigkeit |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:81265&r=ger |
| By: | Amaral, Ernesto F. L. |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the profile of female sterilization in Brazil by age, parity, type of delivery, place of delivery, color/race, region of residence, years of schooling, marital status, and number of unions. Data are from the 2006 Brazilian National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children (PNDS), which has information on history of pregnancies with live births from 2001 to 2006. Results suggest that: (1) women with high levels of sterilization, high percentages of more than one pregnancy in the period, and larger parity than the desired number of children tend to have high parity, be black, brown, or indigenous, reside in the North or Northeast, have low levels of education, and have two or more unions; and (2) women with high levels of sterilization, low percentages of more than one pregnancy, and lower parity than the desired number of children tend to have cesarean sections, give birth utilizing private health care obtained through a private insurance plan or direct out-of-pocket payment at private hospitals, and be married. |
| Keywords: | contraceptive agents, female, sterilization, reproductive health, Brazil |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1092-1&r=ger |
| By: | Lechthaler, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of protectionism as a business cycle instrument. In normal times, protectionism reduces international trade, distorts production and reduces output. However, in a liquidity trap protectionism lowers the real interest rate because inflation goes up while the nominal interest rate is stuck at the zero lower bound. This stimulates consumption and output. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle policy,Protectionism,Liquidity trap |
| JEL: | E12 E60 F13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2042&r=ger |
| By: | Jairo Parada Corrales |
| Abstract: | A pesar del profundo impacto de la Gran Recesión del 2008, en los Departamentos de Economía del mundo, se sigue enseñando el paradigma neoclásico como si nada hubiese ocurrido. La enseñanza de la economía, especialmente en los programas de pregrado, no deja espacio para una formación plural, aunque algo similar ocurre en los postgrados. La dominancia global de los enfoques orientados hacia el mercado, basados en una ontología individualista, un deductivismo metodológico y el uso masivo de modelos matemáticos de las tres ultimas décadas, ha ido cerrando las posibilidades de nuevos enfoques. En este ensayo, se exploran las posibles causas del fenómeno, y se presentan propuestas sobre cómo debería enseñarse una Microeconomía más integral, más pluralista, una Macro más aterrizada en los problemas contemporáneos y una teoría del Desarrollo que no renuncie a la riqueza de nuestro pasado latinoamericano, bajo el criterio de dotar a nuestros profesionales de una visión mas polifacética del pensamiento económico y la teoría económica, con miras a abrir nuevas miradas a enfoques creativos en las políticas publicas que puedan resolver nuestros problemas de fondo. Se ofrecen sugerencias concretas en materia de enfoques de currículos y de textos, así como de mecanismos para superar el terrible lecho de Procusto que implica la enseñanza única de la corriente principal. Al final, tendríamos profesionales más creativos y conscientes de la variedad de posibilidades que ofrece un enfoque más pluralista de la ciencia económica y se abrirían avenidas de ideas creativas para la implementación de políticas. Lo anterior implica mayor audacia en términos curriculares y menos timidez hacia la crítica de las teorías de la catedral dominante. |
| Keywords: | Crisis Económica, Economía Pluralista, enseñanza economía |
| JEL: | A22 A23 B15 B52 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014795&r=ger |
| By: | Stoian, Andreea; Iorgulescu, Filip |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to examine whether information on fiscal policy includes in the stock prices in a way which is consistent with the Efficiency Market Hypothesis. We conduct our investigation for the Bucharest Stock Exchange which is one emerging stock market from Central and Eastern Europe. For the purpose of our study, we employ the methodology suggested by Darrat (1988). We analyse the influence of past fiscal policy on current stock market return using two distinct datasets comprising of quarterly and monthly data. The results indicate that when we do not control for the anticipated and unanticipated effects of fiscal policy, past lags of changes in the overall budget balance and in public debt-to-GDP ratio have a significant impact on stock market return and, thus, we fail in accepting the semi-strong form of the efficiency market hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, stock return, budget balance, public debt, Efficiency Market Hypothesis |
| JEL: | E44 E62 G14 H6 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72458&r=ger |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver; Kretschmer, Jürgen-Peter |
| Abstract: | Standard analysis of mergers in oligopolies along the lines of the popular Farrell-Shapiro-Framework (FSF) relies regarding its policy conclusions sensitively on the assumption that rational agents will only propose privately profitable mergers. If this assumption held, a positive external effect of a proposed merger would represent a sufficient condition to allow the merger. However, the empirical picture on mergers and acquisitions reveals a significant share of unprofitable mergers and economic theory, moreover, demonstrates that privately unprofitable mergers can be the result of rational action. Therefore, we drop this restrictive assumption and allow for unprofitable mergers to occur. This exerts a considerable impact on merger policy conclusions: while several insights of the original analysis are corroborated (f.i. efficiency defence), a positive external effect does not represent a sufficient condition for the allowance of a merger anymore. Applying such a rule would cause a considerable amount of false decisions. |
| Keywords: | mergers & acquisitions,oligopoly theory,horizontal merger policy,profitability of mergers,antitrust |
| JEL: | L13 L41 K21 D43 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:96&r=ger |
| By: | Clark, Todd E. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Carriero, Andrea; Marcellino, Massimiliano |
| Abstract: | Recent research has shown that a reliable vector autoregressive model (VAR) for forecasting and structural analysis of macroeconomic data requires a large set of variables and modeling time variation in their volatilities. Yet, there are no papers jointly allowing for stochastic volatilities and large datasets, due to computational complexity. Moreover, homoskedastic VAR models for large datasets so far restrict substantially the allowed prior distributions on the parameters. In this paper we propose a new Bayesian estimation procedure for (possibly very large) VARs featuring time varying volatilities and general priors. This is important both for reduced form applications, such as forecasting, and for more structural applications, such as computing response functions to structural shocks. We show that indeed empirically the new estimation procedure performs very well for both tasks. |
| Keywords: | forecasting; models; structural shocks; |
| JEL: | C11 C13 C33 C53 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1617&r=ger |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver; Köhler, Karoline Henrike |
| Abstract: | Dominant or apparently dominant internet platform increasingly become subject to both antitrust investigations and further-reaching political calls for regulation. While Google is currently in the focus of the discussion, the next candidate is already on the horizon - the ubiquitous online trading platform Amazon. Competitors and suppliers but also famous economists like Paul Krugman unite in criticizing Amazon's market power and alleged abuse of it. In this paper, we collect the multitude of allegations against Amazon and categorize them according to types of potential anticompetitive conduct or types of market failure. We provide an economic analysis of these allegations based upon economic theory as well as publicly available information and data. As one of our main results, we find that the most severe allegations against Amazon do not hold from an economic perspective and, consequently, do not warrant regulation or other drastic interventions (like breaking the company up). However, several areas of conduct, in particular, the use of best price clauses and the (anti-) competitive interplay of Amazon and the major publishers in the e-book market require competition policy action. The standard antitrust instruments, enriched with modern economic theory, should suffice to disincentivize the identified anticompetitive conduct for now. |
| Keywords: | antitrust,internet,platform economics,media economics,competition policy,innovation,Amazon,Google,e-books,book industry,best-price clauses,abuse of dominance,pricing,regulation |
| JEL: | K21 L41 L42 L81 K23 L50 L82 L12 D40 L25 Z11 B52 L86 M21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:97&r=ger |
| By: | Marta Lachowska (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research) |
| Keywords: | Wages, Outside options, Job-matching model |
| JEL: | J31 J41 J50 M51 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:ml16-ee&r=ger |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | L’économie alimentaire ouest-africaine s’est profondément transformée ces 60 dernières années sous l’effet de l’urbanisation et de la croissance des revenus. L’ensemble des activités de production, transformation et distribution qui concourent à l’alimentation humaine, représente un total de 178 milliards USD en 2010, soit 36 % du PIB régional. Environ 40% de la valeur ajoutée de cette économie alimentaire n’est plus le fait de l’agriculture. En particulier, les segments aval de l’agriculture dans les chaînes de valeur alimentaires gagnent en importance et devraient connaître la croissance la plus forte sur les prochaines décennies. L’appareil décisionnel doit se doter des mécanismes de suivi et d’analyse adaptés. Ce document propose une estimation de la taille et de la structure de cette nouvelle économie alimentaire, et revient sur les principaux enjeux de politique publique qui en découlent. |
| Date: | 2016–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:swacab:1-fr&r=ger |
| By: | Gilberto M. Llanto (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Philippine Institute for Development Studies) |
| Abstract: | Part One of this paper explores the evolution of regulation in the Philippines since the post-martial rule regime. This paper tracks the macroeconomic and regulatory reforms, and the political and economic history. It explores the existence of a regulatory management system in the Philippines, identifying that the Philippines does not have a coherent regulatory management system, but does has some of the parts of such a system. Parts Two explores how some aspects of a regulatory management system were applied in the successful case study of regulatory change in the establishment of the National Competitiveness Council, a public private partnership, while Part Three looks at another successful case in the regulatory reforms of Quezon City’s Business Permit and Licensing System. |
| Keywords: | regulatory reform, regulatory management, RIS, regulatory impact analysis, national competitiveness council, quezon city business permit, licensing system |
| JEL: | K23 K20 L5 L51 L74 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2016-21&r=ger |
| By: | Atsuko Tanaka (Department of Economics, University of Calgary); Ha Nguyen (Department of Economics, University of Calgary); Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how removing disability insurance coverage affects workers’work incentive and occupation choice. To do so, we exploit the 1997 Canadian Pension Plan (CPP) disability program reform, which required longer work experience for individuals to be eligible for disability insurance. The empirical strategy includes difference-in-difference and tripledifference estimations. The results show that the reform significantly increased work incentive for male individuals with a long non-employment spell. However, the rise in work incentive increased only unemployment, not employment. We also find that the reform barely affected the distribution of employment across occupation. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sin:wpaper:16-a008&r=ger |
| By: | R. Vijay Krishna (Duke University); Shiming Fu (University of Rochester) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a dynamic agency model in which the agent privately observes the firm's cash flows that are subject to persistent shocks. We characterize the optimal contract by continuation utilities contingent on the agent's report today and tomorrow. The optimal contract can be implemented by a contingent credit line, stock options, and equity. In contrast to the iid case, we find: (i) investment is possibly efficient in the constrained firm, and is varying with cash flow in the unconstrained firm; (ii) the firm possibly experiences longer time of being financially constrained; (iii) the agent receives cash payment less than what he can divert from cash flow and investors hold more equity stake; (iv) compensation to the agent is via stock options and equity, the combination of which depends on persistence level; (v) firm credit line limits are contingent on compliance with a cash flow covenant and are history dependent. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:89&r=ger |
| By: | Savioli, Marco; Patuelli, Roberto |
| Abstract: | Economic processes, consisting of interactions between human beings, exploit the social capital of persons endowed with specific cultures, identities and education. By taking into account this complexity, the authors focus on the role of institutions and policymaking in the building of social capital and its relevance to the fulfilment of their objectives. Social capital, however, is elusive and has several dimensions with which to interpret its multifaceted functions in economics and society. The authors cannot forget that social capital is sometimes even undesirable for society, for instance when unethically used. Even so, it is widely accepted that social capital has stable and positive effects. |
| Keywords: | social capital,institutions,policymaker,education |
| JEL: | Z13 B52 D78 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201626&r=ger |
| By: | Jing Cai (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Morris M. Kleiner (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This study shows the influence of occupational licensing on two occupations that provide similar services: occupational therapists and physical therapists. Most of the tasks for these two occupations differ, but several jobs overlap, and individuals in both occupations could have legal jurisdiction over these tasks. We empirically examine how these two occupations interact with one another in the labor market on wage determination and employment. Unlike previous studies, our study examines two occupations that are female dominated both within the professions and among its leadership. Our results show that occupational licensing can raise the wages of members of both occupations, but the duration of state occupational licensing statutes is the dominant influence on wage determination. Occupational licensing is also associated with a reduction in annual hours worked and in the relative numbers of members in each of the professions. Moreover, the ability of physical therapists to have direct access to patients is associated with a reduction in hourly earnings for occupational therapists, suggesting some substitution for certain service tasks across the two occupations. The ability of these two occupations to be both complements to and substitutes for one another provides new evidence on how the growing number of regulated occupations that are similar interact and influence one another. |
| Keywords: | Occupational licensing, wage determination, interaction of occupations |
| JEL: | J44 J31 J38 J88 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:16-259&r=ger |
| By: | Sara Hsu |
| Abstract: | China is in the process of undertaking financial reform in many directions—introducing small private banks in the banking sector, promoting bond and equity finance, increasing exchange rate and capital account liberalization, enhancing financial regulation, and promoting the efficiency and scope of finance. While some foreign analysts have focused on the importance of liberalizing the exchange rate and capital account, we believe these aspects of reform take second priority to traditional banking reform, even though the ongoing process in practice is to slowly implement reforms in all areas at once. |
| Keywords: | China, banking system, financial system, reform, liberalization |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201621&r=ger |
| By: | Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise |
| Abstract: | This work involves the construction of the 2013 Social Accounting Matrix for the D.R.Congo (MCS-CD2013). Three main sources of data were used namely Tables of Resources and Employment (TRE), the table of Integrated Economic Accounts (TCEI) for 2013, and data from the 1-2-3 survey on employment, the informal sector and household consumption for the year 2012. Given the nature of these data, we have resorted to the bottom-up approach to the development of this SAM and methods of RAS and cross-entropy for its balancing. After these steps, the obtained SAM past internal and external consistency tests. The results reflect macroeconomic accounting balances for the respective year. Therefore, this SAM is the basis for data Reference for macroeconomic studies and modeling of the Congolese economy. |
| Keywords: | Matrice de Comptabilité Sociale, Tableau des Ressources et Emplois,Tableau des Comptes Economiques Intégrés |
| JEL: | C82 E16 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72407&r=ger |
| By: | Rodríguez, Andrea Yanira; Araque, Alex; Calderón, Lorena Viviana; Franco, Camila; Góngora, Pamela; Iunes, Roberto |
| Abstract: | Resumen: La tributación al tabaco es considerada como una medida excepcionalmente efectiva para reducir los efectos negativos generados por el consumo del tabaco. De acuerdo con la OMS (2015), el aumento de los impuestos al tabaco a más del 75% del precio de venta es la medida más efectiva para controlar la epidemia, especialmente entre los más jóvenes y los más pobres. Pese a la evidencia disponible, en Colombia el impuesto al tabaco equivale a un 49,4% del precio de referencia promedio. La carga -relativamente baja- de los impuestos sobre estos productos explica el bajo precio de los cigarrillos en el país. El presente trabajo estudia las consecuencias sobre la salud en la eventualidad de no incrementar la tributación al cigarrillo, así como una propuesta para incrementar el impuesto al mismo. Con base en razones de salud pública y teniendo en cuenta los compromisos que ha adquirido Colombia como Estado Parte del Convenio Marco para el Control del Tabaco de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, se propone un incremento del 57% en el precio final del tabaco, a partir de un incremento en la tarifa del impuesto al consumo. Adicionalmente, se propone actualizar la tarifa anualmente, en un porcentaje equivalente al del crecimiento del IPC, más un 5% adicional hasta alcanzar el precio promedio que se registra en la región. |
| Keywords: | Tabaco, Impuestos, Salud Pública, Política Fiscal, Política Pública. |
| JEL: | H20 H22 H39 I10 H51 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000504:014825&r=ger |
| By: | Tsvetkova, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the effect of diversity, creativity and localized competition on firm formation in US computer and electronic product manufacturing within the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship (KSTE) framework. Fixed effects instrumental variable estimation results support the KSTE contention of a positive relationship between knowledge and entrepreneurship. Industrial diversity and diversity of knowledge tend to promote endogenous firm entry, whereas evidence on other factors is mixed. This points to sensitivity of conclusions in the KSTE literature to regional and industrial environments and calls for caution in interpreting and generalizing findings obtained in various settings. |
| Keywords: | innovation, entrepreneurship, firm formation, knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship, computer and electronic product manufacturing |
| JEL: | O1 O3 R1 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72349&r=ger |
| By: | Gilbert COLLETAZ; Grégory LEVIEUGE; Alexandra POPESCU |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2409&r=ger |
| By: | Mario Mariniello |
| Abstract: | Disclaimer - This is a Chinese translation produced by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences based on the paper "Foreign takeovers need clarity from Europe". 外资并购往往引起政府的疑虑。这些疑虑可能是出于国防安全的战略考虑，也可能出于经济考虑。外国投资方在地理上心理上都远离东道国，因此在一般公众的心目中他们在并购活动中比较容易作出损害东道国经济的决定，比如弱化被收购公司的品牌形象、削减工作岗位、降低研究支出。 不过，对欧盟境内跨国并购事务负有监管责任的欧盟委员会（European Commission）来说，评估这类企业并购案的唯一标准就是消费者利益，欧盟成员国只有在极个别的情况下才可以进行干预。 政策的挑战 本期《政策简报》提出外资并购中的两个问题：（1）外国投资者在收购了一家公司后，东道国的国内福利是否会遭受更大的损失？（2）在欧盟委员会针对跨国并购的现行做法下，经济上的忧虑是否应当成为欧盟成员国进行干预的合法理由？ 在深入分析有关文献后，我们感到对这两个问题的答案都是否定的。 如果给予成员国回旋余地就会让并购的结果变得不确定，因此这种回旋余地是不必要的甚至可能是有害的。 为了增加透明度、促进欧洲的外来投资，欧盟委应当确立成员国在什么情况下才能进行干预 的规则。 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:15536&r=ger |
| By: | Campoy-Muñoz, Pilar; Cardenete Flores, Manuel Alejandro; Delgado, M. Carmen; Hewings, Geoffrey |
| Abstract: | Programs to reduce employers' social security contributions are being widely discussed in both the political arena and academic forums as tools for promoting economic growth and boosting employment. This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic impact on the national economy of the proposals from the Spanish Confederation of Enterprise Organizations about reducing the social security contributions paid by employers. The results show that the proposals fail to reduce unemployment when they are combined with compensation by revenues from indirect taxes; whereas compensation through increased personal income taxes shows positive results on unemployment in exchange for decreases in private consumption. |
| Keywords: | computable general equilibrium models,social security contributions,tax reforms,fiscal consolidation |
| JEL: | C68 H20 H32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201632&r=ger |
| By: | Chemla, Gilles; Tinn, Katrin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of reward-based crowdfunding in learning about demand and improving investment decisions. The information gathered while raising funds from consumers provides firms with a real option to invest if demand is sufficiently high. Despite moral hazard problems stemming from the firms' ability to divert the funds raised, all-or-nothing schemes are nearly as efficient as frictionless surveys and full money-back guarantees. Dominant platforms adopt features such as limited campaign length and transparency between backers, which are essential to overcome moral hazard. Our results are consistent with stylized facts and provide new testable implications. |
| Keywords: | Kickstarter; learning; moral hazard; real options; Reward-based crowdfunding; uncertainty |
| JEL: | D80 G30 L14 L26 O30 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11363&r=ger |
| By: | Zheng, Yanan, Jr. |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the linkages among farm, wholesale and retail markets along the U.S. pork supply chain by analyzing their price transmissions and volatility spillovers. Data used in the analysis include monthly farm, wholesale and retail price for pork, covering the period of January 2000 through December 2014. Engle and Grager’s cointegration technique was adopted to examine long run price relationships for each pair of markets, while an asymmetric VAR-BEKK-GARCH model was followed to investigate whether asymmetry plays a role in short-run price adjustments and volatility spillovers. Key findings of this study include: (1) the presence of long-run relationship in all three pairs of markets; (2) asymmetric short-run price adjustments in retail and farm markets; (3) asymmetry in wholesale price volatility, wholesale price will be more volatile when confront with positive shocks; (4) bi-directional volatility spillovers in all three pairs of markets; and (5) asymmetric spillover effects to wholesale and farm markets, with price instabilities being more sensitive to the joint shocks that move in different directions. |
| Keywords: | asymmetry, price transmission, vertical supply chain, asymmetric, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:239842&r=ger |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that a modified real business cycle (RBC) model, one that includes home production and fiscal spending shocks, can solve one of the RBC puzzles and generates zero correlation between wages and hours. In addition, the micro-founded model presented here provides a sound theoretical model to analyze fiscal policy in a neoclassical framework and is able to capture many aspects of the data that the benchmark RBC model was missing. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy,home production,government spending shock,indivisible labor |
| JEL: | C63 E62 E32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142466&r=ger |
| By: | Eirik S. Amundsen (Department of Economics, the University of Bergen; Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Frank Jensen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the problem of a water management authority faced with the threat of a drought that hits at an uncertain date. Three management policies are investigated: i) a laissez-faire (open-access) policy of automatic adjustment through a zero marginal private net benefit condition, ii) a policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of the drought and relying on automatic adjustments through a zero marginal social net benefit condition, iii) an economically optimal dynamic policy taking account of the threat of a drought. In particular, we show that the optimal pre-drought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water under policy iii) is smaller than under policy ii) and, hence, a precautionary stock size should not be built up prior to the drought. |
| Keywords: | drought, groundwater management, uncertainty |
| JEL: | Q20 Q22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:foi:wpaper:2016_04&r=ger |
| By: | Francesco Casarin (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Fabio Marzella (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | . |
| Keywords: | artistic benefit; arts marketing; artistic experience; value co-creation; audience empowerment; performing arts. |
| JEL: | M40 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:117&r=ger |
| By: | Jürgen Kruse (University of Cologne); Heike Wetzel (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | This article empirically analyzes supply-side and demand-side factors expected to affect innovation in clean coal technologies. Patent data from 93 national and international patent offices is used to construct new firm-level panel data on 3,648 clean coal innovators over the time period 1978 to 2009. The results indicate that on the supply-side a firm’s history in clean coal patenting and overall propensity to patent positively affects clean coal innovation. On the demand-side we find strong evidence that environmental regulation of emissions, that is, CO2, NOX and SO2, induces innovation in both efficiency improving combustion and after pollution control technologies. |
| Keywords: | clean coal technologies, innovation, patents, technological change |
| JEL: | C33 O31 Q40 Q55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201615&r=ger |
| By: | Homar, Timotej; Kick, Heinrich; Salleo, Carmelo |
| Abstract: | We analyse the SRISK measure with respect to its usage as a benchmark for the ECB/EBA 2014 stress test. By regressing the ECB/EBA stress test impact and the SRISK stress impact on a set of factors that are commonly associated with bank credit losses and bank vulnerability, we find that the ECB/EBA stress impact is consistent with findings in the literature on credit losses. In contrast, the SRISK measure bears much less relation to these factors; it is largely driven by the banks’ leverage ratio. These differences are deeply rooted in the construction of the respective measures. With its focus on losses to bank equity, the SRISK measure appears poorly matched as a benchmark for the supervisory stress test in Europe, which is centred on losses to banks’ total assets. JEL Classification: C21, G01, G21 |
| Keywords: | Asset Quality Review, SRISK, stress test evaluation |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161920&r=ger |
| By: | Eileen Appelbaum; Rosemary Batt |
| Abstract: | U.S. private equity fundraising had its best year ever in 2015 — raising $185 billion. But is the enthusiasm of investors warranted? Do PE buyout funds deliver outsized returns to investors and will they do so in the future? This report answers this question by reviewing the most recent empirical evidence on buyout fund performance; the answer is no. While median private equity buyout funds once beat the S&P 500, they have not done so since 2006 -- despite industry claims to the contrary. |
| JEL: | G G2 G28 G3 G38 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2016-10&r=ger |
| By: | Sébastien Miroudot; Håkan Nordström |
| Abstract: | In the past five years, the concept of “global value chain” (GVC) has become popular to describe the way firms fragment production into different stages located in different economies. The “made in the world” narrative suggests that production today is global with inputs coming from all parts of the world before being assembled into final products also shipped all over the world. The empirical basis of this story has however been questioned, suggesting that supply chains are regional rather than global. In this paper we offer a comprehensive review of the evidence based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), including new indicators counting the number of domestic and foreign production stages, border crossings and geographic length of the supply chains. The study covers 1995 to 2011. All evidence points in the same direction. The made in the world narrative is correct as far as the direction is concerned, but we still have a long way to go. On average, globalization proceeds at 40 kilometres a year. |
| Keywords: | Fragmentation of production, vertical specialization, global value chain |
| JEL: | F14 L16 L23 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/60&r=ger |
| By: | Patrick Higgins; Tao Zha; Karen Zhong |
| Abstract: | Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape. |
| JEL: | C53 E1 E17 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22402&r=ger |
| By: | Carine Moehler; Grégory Pieter; Edwin Zaccai |
| Abstract: | Le changement climatique constitue une thématique politique relativement récente dans les agendas politiques et électoraux. Souvent, dans le grand public, la question climatique est perçue à travers la médiatisation des grands sommets des Nations Unies consacrés à cette problématique (Rio de Janeiro en 1992, Kyoto en 1997, Copenhague en 2009, Paris en 2015, etc.). Mais les positions que défendent les différents pays lors de ces réunions ont bien entendu été préalablement construites, entre autres, sur les scènes nationales.Les partis politiques sont à la fois les reflets des opinions publiques et les initiateurs des régulières redéfinitions des orientations politiques qui entourent la thématique du changement climatique. Ils filtrent également les demandes politiques de la société civile qui paraissent compatibles avec leur programme et leur faisabilité, et les transforment. Aux États-Unis, la polarisation politique autour de la question du changement climatique est aisément détectable. Qu’en est-il en Europe ?L’opinion publique s’y déclare majoritairement convaincue de la réalité de changements climatiques d’origine anthropique et la trouve préoccupante, même s’il existe une part significative de la population qui en doute. Ce scepticisme se traduit-il toutefois dans les programmes électoraux de certains partis politiques, à l’instar de ce que l’on constate aux États-Unis ?Telle a été la question à la base du présent Courrier hebdomadaire. Annonçons cependant d’emblée que ce que nous désignerons ici par « climato-scepticisme », au sens strict de mise en doute du changement climatique d’origine humaine, n’est qu’un aspect assez partiel de cette étude. Nos résultats révèlent en effet que cette position climato-sceptique est extrêmement minoritaire parmi les formations politiques d’Europe. |
| Keywords: | Partis politiques; Europe; Changement climatique |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/232147&r=ger |
| By: | Ahmed Salhin; Mo Sherif; Edward Jones (Heriot-Watt University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and UK stock returns at economy and industry level. Using consumer and business conï¬ dence indicators provided by the European Commission, we provide novel evidence on whether sector-speciï¬ c sentiment differs from the aggregate market sentiment in predicting stock returns for ï¬ ve discrete sector groupings. Using monthly data for the period January 1985 to December 2014, our results indicate that investor sentiment signiï¬ cantly influences stock market returns at economy level and for some industry groups. We ï¬ nd that the overall sentiment-return relationship is dominated by sentiment associated with Manufacturing ï¬ rms. Importantly, parameter estimates for the sector groupings are not consistent, suggesting that the relationship differs across sectors and ï¬ ndings are sensitive to industry characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Investor Sentiment, Business Conï¬ dence, Granger-Causality, UK Sectors |
| JEL: | G02 G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:cfidps:1602&r=ger |
| By: | Wehby, George (University of Iowa, NBER); Dave, Dhaval M. (Bentley University); Kaestner, Robert (University of Illinois at Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The minimum wage has increased in multiple states over the past three decades. Research has focused on effects on labor supply, but very little is known about how the minimum wage affects health, including children's health. We address this knowledge gap and provide an investigation focused on examining the impact of the effective state minimum wage rate on infant health. Using data on the entire universe of births in the US over 25 years, we find that an increase in the minimum wage is associated with an increase in birth weight driven by increased gestational length and fetal growth rate. The effect size is meaningful and plausible. We also find evidence of an increase in prenatal care use and a decline in smoking during pregnancy, which are some channels through which minimum wage can affect infant health. Labor market policies that enhance wages can thus affect wellbeing in broader ways, and such health effects should enter into any cost‐benefit calculus of such policies. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, health, infant, prenatal care, smoking, income, pregnant women |
| JEL: | I1 I3 J2 J3 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10039&r=ger |
| By: | Davor Iljkić (PUZ,Sektor kriminalističke policije) |
| Abstract: | U radu se prezentira pranje novca kao pojava s transnacionalnim elementima u kriminalističkom i kaznenopravnom smislu i uloga financijskih obavještajnih jedinica u prevenciji i sprečavanju pranja novca. Definirani su osnovni pojmovi, faze pranja novca, osnovna načela, međunarodni propisi, međunarodni kaznenopravni okvir, smjernice i Direktive EU, normativna struktura u Hrvatskoj obuhvaćena pravilnicima i Zakonom o sprječavanju pranja novca i financiranju terorizma. Kupovina dionica, nekretnina, osnivanje crnih fondova je prijetnja za sigurnost financijskog i banakarskog sustava. Zbog toga je od krucijalne važnosti pratiti korak u pristupu s preporukama Europe i težiti zakonodavnom unapređivanjum, modernizaciji susatva i usklađivanju. U tome je od velike pomoći predviđanje problema i zakonodavnih rješenja koje imaju zemlje s dugoročnom praksom u pranju novca poput Njemačke i SAD. |
| Keywords: | pranje novca, financiranje terorizma, prevencija, sumnjiva transakcija, oduzimanje ilegalnih prihoda, financiranje terorizma |
| JEL: | K42 E42 F38 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eff:wpaper:0006&r=ger |
| By: | Willem THORBECKE |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates East Asia's exploding trade in electronic parts and components (ep&c). The results indicate that foreign direct investment (FDI) increases the level of ep&c exports. Thus, FDI has promoted the slicing up of the value chain in the region. Higher capital intensity increases the share of a country's ep&c exports relative to its Asian trading partners. Thus, one reason why South Korea and Taiwan have gained market share is because they have invested heavily in plant, equipment, and technology. Exchange rate depreciations significantly increase both the level and the share of a country's ep&c exports. This implies that regional exchange rate stability may reduce beggar-thy-neighbor policies and promote intra-regional trade. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16072&r=ger |
| By: | Patrick Messerlin |
| Abstract: | This paper uses different sources of data to assess the relative level of openness of the public procurement markets of major trading nations, with a specific focus on the European Union (EU). The data reveal a picture that is very different from what is commonly argued to be the case by policymakers in the EU. The divergence between discourse and reality is in part a reflection of the absence of appropriate data on government sourcing patterns, suggesting greater effort is needed to both compile more accurate statistics and to take into account basic economic factors such as the size of economies. |
| Keywords: | Government procurement, home bias, openness, trade negotiations |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/89&r=ger |
| By: | Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Almeida, Mariana Eugenio; Goncalves, Guilherme Quaresma |
| Abstract: | We analyze the 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses, in order to investigate the associated factors with a woman having had a live birth during the year prior to each census. We estimated logistic regression models for women aged 10-49 years. As independent variables, we selected region of residence, rural/urban location, presence of electricity, color/race, religion, marital status, labor market participation, time of residence in the municipality, information about whether they had a stillbirth, age, education, and parity. Our findings confirm that the probability a woman had a child is higher in the North and Northeast regions, as well as in households without electricity. Women that have a greater chance of having had a child are black/brown, Catholic, married, non-labor market participants, short-term migrants, experienced a stillbirth, between 20-29 years of age, have less education, and have higher parity. Patterns have been changing throughout time, thus posing questions for further analyses. |
| Keywords: | fertility decline, family planning program, Brazil |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1091&r=ger |
| By: | Wachs, Martin; Garrett, Mark; Brown, Anne |
| Abstract: | This project documents and analyzes the recent change in California transportation revenue collection programs that end discontinued the state sales tax on motor fuels and increased the state per gallon excise taxes on motor fuels. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Motor fuel tax, sales taxes, transportation revenue, California |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7877815v&r=ger |
| By: | Guntram B. Wolff |
| Abstract: | Disclaimer - This is a Chinese translation produced by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences based on the paper "Eurosystem collateral policy and framework - Was it unduly changed?". 要点 包括重要的公开市场操作在内的所有欧元体系信贷业务，都是以充足的抵押品为基础的。按抵押品市场价格并适用扣减率后向银行提供流动性。在危机期间，欧元体系调整了它的抵押品框架，以接受低评级资产作为抵押品。适用更高的扣减率是为了防范流动性风险，防范低评级资产的更大的价格波动。 为了能向欧元区银行，特别是欧元区外围国家的银行提供充足的流动性,对抵押品框架进行 调整是必要的。对陷于危机的国家，还提供了特别紧急流动性援助。80%以上的欧洲央行 提供的流动性（重大再融资操作和长期再融资操作）都提供给了五个国家（希腊，爱尔兰， 意大利，葡萄牙和西班牙）的银行。当时针对抵押品框架所作的变动，是欧洲央行履行其条 约职权的必要条件，即向有偿付能力的银行提供流动性和维护金融稳定。欧洲央行并没有因 此而引入过多的风险。 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:15540&r=ger |
| By: | Michel Denuit; Jan Dhaene; Hamza Hamza Hanbali; Nathalie Lucas; Julien Trufin |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:afiper:545144&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Pacific Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Pacific Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The challenging geography and poor infrastructure of many Pacific nations mean digital financial services (DFS) are a particularly effective means of enhancing financial inclusion in the region. However, a number of major challenges confront DFS in the Pacific, including the establishment of reliable agent networks and the building of sufficient consumer trust in DFS for it to become a viable payments channel. This report examines the current use of DFS in the Pacific, analyzes the issues that need to be addressed, and provides recommendations for increasing financial inclusion in the region. This publication was produced by the Pacific Private Sector Development Initiative, a regional technical assistance facility cofinanced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Government of Australia and the New Zealand government. |
| Keywords: | pacific; private sector; PSDI; state-owned enterprises; business law reform; financing growth; economic growth; financial services; public–private partnerships; women's economic empowerment; progress report; cook islands; fiji; kiribati; marshall islands; federated states of micronesia; nauru; palau; papua new guinea; samoa; solomon islands; timor-leste; tuvalu; tonga; vanuatu |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167908-2&r=ger |
| By: | Jeanne Cilliers and Johan Fourie |
| Abstract: | In the absence of historical income or education data, the change in occupations over time can be used as a measure of social mobility. This paper investigates intergenerational occupational mobility using a novel genealogical dataset for settler South Africa, spanning its transition from an agricultural to an early industrialized society (1800–1909). We identify fathers and sons for whom we have complete information on occupational attainment. We follow a two-generation discrete approach to measure changes in both absolute and relative mobility over time. Consistent with qualitative evidence of a shift away from agriculture as the economy’s dominant sector, we see the farming class shrinking and the skilled and professional classes growing. Controlling for changes in the structure of the labor market over time, we find increasing upward social mobility, becoming significant following the discovery of minerals in 1868. We find this mobility particularly for semi-skilled workers but virtually no improved mobility for sons of farmers. We also test hypotheses related to the mobility prospects for first-born sons and sons of immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility, Social Mobility, resource curse, industrialization, colonialism, longitudinal data |
| JEL: | J60 J61 J62 N30 N37 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:617&r=ger |
| By: | Justin Sirignano; Apaar Sadhwani; Kay Giesecke |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes multi-period mortgage risk at loan and pool levels using an unprecedented dataset of over 120 million prime and subprime mortgages originated across the United States between 1995 and 2014, which includes the individual characteristics of each loan, monthly updates on loan performance over the life of a loan, and a number of time-varying economic variables at the zip code level. We develop, estimate, and test dynamic machine learning models for mortgage prepayment, delinquency, and foreclosure which capture loan-to-loan correlation due to geographic proximity and exposure to common risk factors. The basic building block is a deep neural network which addresses the nonlinear relationship between the explanatory variables and loan performance. Our likelihood estimators, which are based on 3.5 billion borrower-month observations, indicate that mortgage risk is strongly influenced by local economic factors such as zip-code level foreclosure rates. The out-of-sample predictive performance of our deep learning model is a significant improvement over linear models such as logistic regression. Model parameters are estimated using GPU parallel computing due to the computational challenges associated with the large amount of data. The deep learning model's superior accuracy compared to linear models directly translates into improved performance for investors. Portfolios constructed with the deep learning model have lower prepayment and delinquency rates than portfolios chosen with a logistic regression. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.02470&r=ger |
| By: | Huber, Martin; Camponovo, Lorenzo; Bodory, Hugo; Lechner, Michael |
| Abstract: | We introduce a wild bootstrap algorithm for the approximation of the sampling distribution of pair or one-to-many propensity score matching estimators. Unlike the conventional iid bootstrap, the proposed wild bootstrap approach does not construct bootstrap samples by randomly resampling from the observations with uniform weights. Instead, it fixes the covariates and constructs the bootstrap approximation by perturbing the martingale representation for matching estimators. We also conduct a simulation study in which the suggested wild bootstrap performs well even when the sample size is relatively small. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration by analyzing an information intervention in rural development programs. |
| Keywords: | Inference; Propensity Score Matching Estimators; Wild Bootstrap |
| JEL: | C14 C15 C21 |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fri:fribow:fribow00470&r=ger |
| By: | Pinar Yesin (Swiss National Bank) |
| Abstract: | The Swiss franc is known to appreciate strongly during financial market turmoil, demonstrating its status as a typical safe haven currency. One possible mechanism behind this appreciation during times of global turmoil is assumed to be higher capital inflows to Switzerland. This paper attempts to find some empirical evidence for this presumption. The analysis reveals that capital flow variables are not necessarily coincident with the movements of the Swiss franc. Interest rate differentials, a traditional determinant of exchange rates, co-move only weakly with Swiss franc movements. However, a robust and stronger link between variables that capture global or regional market uncertainty and movements of the Swiss franc is observed. Specifically, the information channel rather than new cross-border investment is found to be coincident with the Swiss franc. The weak link between capital flows and the exchange rate is confirmed to some extent for some other countries. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:szg:worpap:1604&r=ger |
| By: | Gu, Grace (University of California, Santa Cruz); Malik, Samreen (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Pozzoli, Dario (Copenhagen Business School); Rocha, Vera (Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study how the skill distribution for the whole economy responds to changes in the skill premium which are induced by trade integration. Using administrative data for both Denmark (1993-2012) and Portugal (1993-2011), we perform a two-step empirical analysis. In the first stage we predict the skill premium changes which are triggered by exogenous trade shocks. In the second step we estimate the impact of such changes on the skill distribution. The main results for Denmark show that both the average and the standard deviation of skills increase as a result of trade integration. For Portugal we find instead that the impact of trade mediated by skill premium changes is negligible and not statistically significant. These results are rationalized by using the lens of a simple theoretical intuition. |
| Keywords: | skill premium, skill upgrading, trade integration, labor market frictions |
| JEL: | F16 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10035&r=ger |
| By: | Victoire Girard |
| Abstract: | Mandated political representation over the last twenty years has had a different impact on the reporting of crime by the low castes than what is observed for the reporting of crime by women. I exploit the timing of the implementation of mandated political representation of the low castes to examine its effect on crime reports by these people. Mandated political representation of the low castes in India appears to affect the declaration of crime only for two very specific crime categories: identity-based crimes and murders. The increase in identity-based crimes (based on caste) is consistent either with better recording of existing crimes, or an increase in the incidence of committed crimes. The evolution of murders, which according to most specifications have increased after the implementation of political representation, is only consistent with an increase in incidence. This is all the more worrisome, given that the introduction of exclusive special courts, which were meant to further empower the low castes to report identity-based crimes, has not had the desired effect. A comforting observation is that crime disclosures do not increase during electoral years, contradicting the qualitative literature which points to incidents concerning reserved seats during elections. Nevertheless, mandated political representation has not had as strong an effect in giving voice to the low castes as has been documented earlier for women. |
| Keywords: | crime, justice, India, inequality, caste, political reservation, political quotas, discrimination; microsimulation, tax, transfer, distributional impact, Viet Nam |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-074&r=ger |
| By: | Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt University); Paul Wachtel (Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University) |
| Abstract: | One strand of the economics literature addresses financial deepening as a precursor to economic growth. Another views it as a cause of financial crises. We examine historical data for 17 economies from 1870 to 1929 to distinguish episodes of growth induced by financial deepening from crises induced by credit booms. Cross-country panel regressions with five-year averages indicate that deepening episodes, defined as increases of more than thirty percent (and alternatively more than twenty percentage points) in the ratio of M2 to GDP over a ten year period, significantly enhanced the standard finance-growth dynamic, while deepening associated with financial crises sharply hindered it. We then describe some specific episodes of financial deepening in our sample. |
| Keywords: | finance-growth nexus, Atlantic economies, financial deepening, financial crisis |
| JEL: | E4 N1 |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-16-00013&r=ger |
| By: | Cristián Larroulet Vignau (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo) |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Economic policy; Chile |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dsr:pastwp:35&r=ger |
| By: | Fadi Hassan; Paolo Lucchino |
| Abstract: | More than 1.3 billion people worldwide have no access to electricity and this has first-order effects on several development dimensions. In this paper we focus on the link between access to light and education. We randomly distribute solar lamps to 7th grade pupils in rural Kenya and monitor their educational outcomes throughout the year at quarterly frequency. We find that access to lights through solar lamps is a relevant and effective input to education. Our identification strategy accounts for spillovers by exploiting the variation in treatment at the pupil level and in treatment intensity across classes. We find a positive and significant intention-to-treat effect as well as a positive and significant spillover effect on control students. In a class with the average treatment intensity of our sample (43%), treated students experience an increase in math grades of 0.88 standard deviations. Moreover, we find a positive marginal effect of treatment intensity on control students: raising the share of treated students in a class by 10% increases grades of control students by 0.22 standard deviations. We exploit household geolocation to disentangle within-class and geographical spillovers. We show that geographical spillovers do not have a significant impact and within-school interaction is the main source of spillovers. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that the mechanism through which lamps affect students is by increasing co-studying at school especially after sunset. |
| Keywords: | Randomised controlled trial, solar lamps, education, energy access, spillover effects, randomised saturation design |
| JEL: | O12 I25 C93 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1438&r=ger |
| By: | Miguel Faria-e-Castro (New York University); Luis Fonseca (London Business School); Matteo Crosignani (NYU Stern) |
| Abstract: | We analyze some of the potentially unintended consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever conducted by a central bank: the European Central Bank’s three-year Long-Term Refinancing Operations conducted in December 2011 and February 2012. Using an unique dataset on monthly security- and bank-level holdings of government bonds for Portugal, we analyze the impact of this unconventional monetary policy operation on the demand for government debt. We find that: (i) Portuguese banks significantly increased their holdings of domestic government bonds after the announcement of this policy; (ii) This increase in holdings was tilted towards shorter maturities, with banks rebalancing their sovereign debt portfolios towards shorter term bonds. We employ a theoretical framework to argue that domestic banks engaged in a “collateral trade†, which involved the purchase of high yield bonds with maturities shorter than the central bank borrowing in order to mitigate funding liquidity risk. Our model delivers general equilibrium implications that are consistent with the data: the yield curve for the Portuguese sovereign steepens after the announcement, and the timing and characteristics of government bond auctions are consistent with a strategic response by the debt management agency. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:43&r=ger |
| By: | Alkis Theonas Pitelis (University of Sussex); Christos Pitelis (Brunel University London and University of Athens) |
| Abstract: | The following paper aims at discussing the first of the three main objectives under the sixth Work Package entitled Finance, Development and Global Governance, which is the changing global financial and monetary system, including the rising influence of major emerging economies, such as those of Brazil Russia, India, and China (BRICs), as well as the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) in these countries and the ways in which the aforementioned developments and countries can be leveraged so as to help finance investments in Europe. In this paper we focus on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), SovereignWealth Funds, Hedge Funds, Private Equity and Venture Capital. Besides noting the possibilities provided through emerging and emergent countries and sources of funds, we also provide proposals as to what can Europe do and how, so that to leverage available sources of funding in a way that fosters sustainable development. |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper138&r=ger |
| By: | Haque, Adnan ul; Faizan, Riffat; Zehra, Nasreen; Baloch, Akhtar; Nadda, Vipin; Riaz, Fayyaz |
| Abstract: | This empirical study explores different Leadership styles' dimensions influencing culturaloriented female employees' motivation in rapidly improving Pakistan's I.T sector. Hypothetico-Inductive-Deductive model was adapted to construct theoretical framework by opting mixed method under realism philosophy. Sample size is 357 female employees working in software houses of Pakistan's 10 cities selected by combining convenience sampling and stratified sampling techniques. Survey questionnaire contained close-ended questions based on Bass and Avolio (1994) Full Range MLQ Model and WMS. Moreover, 36 female employees were interviewed selected from top five business cities' of Pakistan's software houses through convenience sampling. Results indicate transformational leadership style's dimensions are dominant in motivating female employees scoring overall 0.75. Moreover, transactional has moderate positive relation (0.38) with sub-motivational variables. Though, 'Management-By-Expectation (Passive)' along with Laissez-faire leadership style has no relationship with sub-variables of motivation. In I.T sector of Pakistan, female employees are mainly motivated by interpersonal relations with supervisors, peers, and subordinate, friendly environment, flexibility, socialization, recognition, responsibility, social rewards, and most importantly improved working conditions. It is essential to motivate female workers through 'walk-the-talk' approach along with coerce and accurate vision. |
| Keywords: | Transformational Leadership, Transactional Leadership, Laissez Faire Leadership, Dimensions of Leadership Styles, Cultural-oriented female workforce, I.T Industry |
| JEL: | L0 L2 L29 L8 L86 M1 M12 |
| Date: | 2015–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72334&r=ger |
| By: | Claudio Roberto Amitrano; Gabriel Coelho Squeff |
| Abstract: | Este trabalho procura avançar na discussão sobre as implicações da informalidade no Brasil, apresentando novas evidências sobre a trajetória do valor adicionado, das ocupações e, sobretudo, da produtividade do trabalho nos setores formal e informal, desagregados por atividade econômica. Além disso, são desenvolvidos exercícios contrafactuais para a trajetória dessas variáveis com o intuito de avaliar os possíveis impactos da migração de trabalhadores dos setores não formais para o setor formal e de modificações no grau de utilização da capacidade. This paper aims at discussing the implications of informality in Brazil by presenting new evidence on value added, occupations, and in labor productivity in the formal and informal sectors, disaggregated by economic activity. Moreover, we developed counterfactual exercises for these variables in order to assess the possible impacts of labor migration from non-formal sector to the formal sector as well as from changes in the rate of capacity utilization. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2201&r=ger |
| By: | Víctor Manuel Castillo Girón; Manuel Machuca Martínez; Suhey Ayala Ramírez; David López Jimenez |
| Abstract: | El programa Hipoteca Verde (HV), del Instituto del Fondo Nacional de la Vivienda para los Trabajadores (Infonavit) de México, es un crédito adicional obligatorio –desde 2011– que busca la instalación de ecotecnologías en las viviendas. Sus principales resultados son favorables en los rubros de créditos colocados, ahorros obtenidos, satisfacción del cliente y reconocimiento nacional e internacional. Sin embargo, no existe evidencia de su impacto sobre la rentabilidad de las empresas que participan como sus oferentes. Este trabajo, con base en la teoría microeconómica y estudios que relacionan la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial (RSE) y el desempeño financiero, analiza dicho impacto sobre una muestra determinística de seis empresas listadas en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que existe una relación negativa entre HV y las variables de rentabilidad (RUN, ROA y ROE), lo cual se explica debido a que, teóricamente, la HV se comporta del mismo modo que lo hace un impuesto al comprador en el mercado de la vivienda. |
| Keywords: | Hipoteca Verde, Desarrollo Sustentable, Responsabilidad Social Empresarial (RSE), Impuesto al Comprador, Rentabilidad. |
| JEL: | E2 K0 M14 |
| Date: | 2015–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014783&r=ger |
| By: | Roula Inglesi-Lotz |
| Abstract: | The severity of investment in Research and Development (R&D) in the energy sector is undisputable especially considering the benefits of new technologies to sustainability, security and environmental protection. However, the nature and potential of various energy technologies that are capable to improve the energy and environmental conditions globally is a challenging task for governments and policy makers that have to make decisions on the allocation of funds in R&D. To do so, the optimal resource allocation to R&D should be determined by estimating the social rate of return for R&D investments. This paper aims to estimate the social rate of return of R&D on various energy applications and technologies such as energy efficiency, fossil fuels, renewable energy sources, and nuclear for the G7 countries. The results show that primarily R&D investment on Energy Efficiency technologies and Nuclear are the ones that yield high social benefits for all G7 countries while exactly the opposite holds for Fossil fuels. |
| Keywords: | R&D; Energy; Energy fuels; return |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:618&r=ger |
| By: | Krebs, Tom (University of Mannheim - IZA); Kuhn, Moritz (University of Bonn - IZA); Wright, Mark L. J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a tractable human capital model with limited enforceability of contracts. The model economy is populated by a large number of long-lived, risk-averse households with homothetic preferences who can invest in risk-free physical capital and risky human capital. Households have access to a complete set of credit and insurance contracts, but their ability to use the available financial instruments is limited by the possibility of default (limited contract enforcement). We provide a convenient equilibrium characterization that facilitates the computation of recursive equilibria substantially. We use a calibrated version of the model with stochastically aging households divided into 9 age groups. Younger households have higher expected human capital returns than older households. According to the baseline calibration, for young households less than half of human capital risk is insured and the welfare losses due to the lack of insurance range from 3 percent of lifetime consumption (age 40) to 7 percent of lifetime consumption (age 23). Realistic variations in the model parameters have non-negligible effects on equilibrium insurance and welfare, but the result that young households are severely underinsured is robust to such variations. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; Household; Insurance; Risk; Limited Enforcement |
| JEL: | D52 E21 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2016-08&r=ger |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2016–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2337&r=ger |
| By: | Peiris, S.; Asai, M.; McAleer, M.J. |
| Abstract: | In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic volatility, GARCH models, Gegenbauer Polynomial, Long Memory, Spectral Likelihood, Estimation, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C18 C21 C58 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:93114&r=ger |
| By: | Étienne Gaudette (University of Southern California); Gwyn C. Pauley (University of Southern California); Gwyn C. Pauley (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the literature on how health insurance affects health and economic outcomes in the United States prior to automatic Medicare eligibility at age 65, with the aim of providing a snapshot of the breadth of the existing evidence. A targeted approach was used to identify and review experimental or quasi-experimental articles deemed most likely to identify the causal impact of health insurance. Results were systematically reviewed by outcome category–ranging from mental health to education—and population of interest—ranging from prenatal to preretired. The effects of health insurance on economic outcomes remain inconclusive despite being well-studied, while evidence on the relationship between health insurance and several aspects of health has strengthened over the last decade. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp341&r=ger |
| By: | Jinill KIM; Francisco RUGE-MURCIA |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the positive and normative implication of extreme shocks for monetary policy. The analysis is based on a small-scale new Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages where shocks are drawn from asymmetric generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. A nonlinear perturbation of the model is estimated by the simulated method of moments. Under both the Taylor and Ramsey policies, the central bank responds nonlinearly and asymmetrically to shocks. The trade-off between targeting a gross ináation rate above 1 as insurance against extreme shocks and strict price stability is unambiguously decided in favour of strict price stability. |
| Keywords: | extreme value theory, nonlinear models, skewness risk, monetary policy, third-order perturbation, simulated method of moments |
| JEL: | E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtl:montec:09-2016&r=ger |
| By: | Johan G. Andreasson; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Alex Novikov |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop an expected utility model for the retirement behavior in the decumulation phase of Australian retirees with sequential family status subject to consumption, housing, investment, bequest and government provided means-tested Age Pension. We account for mortality risk and risky investment assets, and introduce a health proxy to capture the decreasing level of consumption for older retirees. Then we find optimal housing at retirement, and optimal consumption and optimal risky asset allocation depending on age and wealth. The model is solved numerically as a stochastic control problem, and is calibrated using the maximum likelihood method on empirical data of consumption and housing from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2009-2010 Survey. The model fits the characteristics of the data well to explain the behavior of Australian retirees. The key findings are the following: First, the optimal policy is highly sensitive to means-tested Age Pension early in retirement but this sensitivity fades with age. Secondly, the allocation to risky assets shows a complex relationship with the means-tested Age Pension that disappears once minimum withdrawal rules are enforced. As a general rule, when wealth decreases the proportion allocated to risky assets increases, due to the Age Pension working as a buffer against investment losses. Finally, couples can be more aggressive with risky allocations due to their longer life expectancy compared with singles. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.08984&r=ger |
| By: | Amador, João; Nagengast, Arne J. |
| Abstract: | We show that credit supply shocks have a strong impact on firm-level as well as aggregate investment by applying the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2013) to a rich dataset of matched bank-firm loans in the Portuguese economy for the period 2005 to 2013. We argue that their decomposition framework can also be used in the presence of small firms with only one banking relationship as long as they account for only a small share of the total loan volume of their banks. The growth rate of individual loans in our dataset is decomposed into bank, firm, industry and common shocks. Adverse bank shocks are found to impair firm-level investment in all firms in our sample, but in particular for small firms and those with no access to alternative financing sources. For the economy as a whole, granular shocks in the banking system account for around 20-40% of aggregate investment dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Banks,Credit Dynamics,Investment,Firm-level data,Portuguese Economy |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:202016&r=ger |
| By: | Ranaldo, Angelo; Rossi, Enzo |
| Abstract: | The Swiss Treasury has used the sealed-bid, uniform-price auction format for allocating government bonds since 1980. In this study, we examine the authorities’ motivation for choosing the uniform-price auction. In addition, we describe how the institutional set-up evolved over time. It includes bidding requirements, class of bidders, pre-auction information, the bidding process, the determination of the cut-off price and the release of post-auction information. Finally, we provide the details of each of the 356 auctions that were held until and including 2014. |
| Keywords: | Government Bonds, Treasury Auctions, Uniform-price Auction |
| JEL: | D44 G12 G20 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2016:09&r=ger |
| By: | Sinha, Piyush Kumar; Uniyal, Dwarika Prasad |
| Abstract: | Store formats exist in three forms of convenience, variety and experience. Shopping involvement tends to change across these formats. This current study (a) establishes the role of store formats on shopping involvement, (b) understands the change in the nature of involvement as the shopper moves to an experience store from a variety or a convenience store format, and (c) measures shopping involvement as different from purchase involvement or purchase-decision involvement. A 3 X 3 factorial design was created using the three formats and three levels of extent of information search representing different buying decisions. Participant observations at different formats were carried out, which was followed by in-depth interviews to understand the motivations and gratifications with regard to shopping and store formats. A new scale to measure Shopping Involvement was developed as different from purchase and purchase – decision involvement. The study found that store formats impacted shopping involvement levels. The convenience format showed a lower level of involvement compared to other formats. However, there was no significant difference between the involvement levels of the variety store format and experience store format. The study showed that the expressive aspect of involvement became more prominent in experience store, while the functional involvement did not increase to the same extent. Shopping involvement in each of these formats also varied with the extent of information search. Retailers would benefit by adopting in-store activities that enhance involvement for the format used. They need to provide the correct type and amount of increase information to the shoppers for better shopping experience and building loyalty. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14546&r=ger |
| By: | Pestieau, Pierre; Ponthiere, Gregory |
| Abstract: | Due to the ageing process, the provision of long-term care (LTC) to the dependent elderly has become a major challenge of our epoch. But our societies are also characterized, since the 1970s, by a postponement of births, which, by raising the intergenerational age gap, can a¤ect the provision of LTC by children. In order to examine the impact of those demographic trends on the optimal policy, we develop a four-period OLG model where individuals, who receive children’s informal LTC at the old age, must choose, when being young, how to allocate births along their life cycle. It is shown that, in line with empirical evidence, early children provide more LTC to their elderly parents than late children, because of the lower opportunity cost of providing LTC when being retired. When comparing the laissez-faire with the long-run social optimum, it appears that individuals have, at the laissez-faire, too few early births, and too many late births. We then study, in …rst-best and second-best settings, how the social optimum can be decentralized by encourageing early births, in such a way as to reduce the social burden of LTC provision. |
| Keywords: | birth timing; childbearing age; family pol- icy; long term care; OLG models. |
| JEL: | E13 J13 J14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11370&r=ger |
| By: | Florence Crick; Katie Jenkins; Swenja Surminski |
| Abstract: | Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly being mentioned as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly in disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we investigate how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. While expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the management of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development. In addition, faced with these risks insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates these challenges: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Our paper investigates this for the specific issue of surface water flood risk in London. Using an agent-based model we investigate how other agents could strengthen the insurance partnership by maintaining affordable insurance premiums and reducing flood risk and test this for the new Flood Re scheme. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation not just in the UK but also internationally. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp241&r=ger |
| By: | Eva O. Arceo-Gómez (Division of Economics, CIDE); Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez (Division of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | Jobs ads often narrow their searches using gender or age requirements. These narrow searches do not rule out the existence of post-application discrimination. We test for such biases using a correspondence experiment in Mexico City. Some job advertisements explicitly discriminated against males, females, asked for beauty or requested a photograph. The experiment consisted on sending fictitious resumes responding to job advertisements with randomized information of the applicants, which included photographs representing three distinct phenotypes: white, mestizo and indigenous. The two forms of discrimination are correlated: explicitly discriminating firms tend to discriminate more against indigenous-looking females and against married females. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination, Gender, Race, Labor marke, Mexico, Correspondence. |
| JEL: | I24 J10 J16 J70 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte593&r=ger |
| By: | Ilias Anthopoulos (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens); Christos N.Pitelis (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and University of Brunel London) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the nature, economic performance, impact and regulation of investment banking. Following a historical excursion, we discuss extant views on these issues, identify limitations and propose some political economy-based considerations that need to be incorporated into the analysis in order to obtain a better appreciation of the role and regulatory challenges of investment banking. |
| Keywords: | investment banking, performance, economic impact, regulation |
| JEL: | G24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper137&r=ger |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2338&r=ger |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to a better understanding of the impact of global value chains (GVCs) on jobs and productivity by providing new evidence on employment embodied in value-added trade flows. Linking jobs data to the Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) indicators first highlights that a large share of employment in OECD and key partner countries relies on consumption taking place abroad and for most countries this share has increased between 1995 and 2011. There are differences across industries in the share of jobs embodied in exports but in all industries a majority of these jobs originates in the service sector. In almost all countries, the jobs embodied in exports are shifting towards high-skill and medium-skill occupations. Within GVCs, there is also a shift from employment in core manufacturing activities to employment in service support functions such as R&D, distribution, logistics, marketing, sales and customer services. The impact of GVCs on the number of people engaged in each industry is the combination of several factors but related to specialisation patterns and the evolution of productivity. In this assessment, it is important to look at the whole value chain and not to focus only on industries where GVCs are prevalent. Job creation in sectors less exposed to GVCs is the consequence of productivity gains in sectors the most integrated in GVCs. |
| Keywords: | productivity, trade, employment, trade in tasks, global value chains, occupations |
| JEL: | F16 F23 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:190-en&r=ger |
| By: | Raoul Minetti; Pierluigi Murro; Zeno Rotondi; Susan Chun Zhu |
| Abstract: | Using a unique sample of small and medium-sized Italian firms, we investigate the effect of financial constraints on firms participation in domestic and international supply chains. We find that firms more exposed to bank credit rationing and with weaker relationships with banks are more likely to participate in supply chains to overcome liquidity shortages. This benefit of supply chains is especially strong when firms forge ties with international trading partners and when they establish long-term relationships with large suppliers. To control for possible endogeneity of firms access to credit, we construct instruments capturing exogenous shocks to the structure of the Italian local banking markets. |
| Keywords: | Credit, Global Value Chains, nternationalization |
| JEL: | F10 G20 L23 |
| Date: | 2016–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sve:wpaper:mise-4&r=ger |
| By: | Felix Koelle (Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences, University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate spillover effects of affirmative action policies on team performance and the willingness to work in teams. We find that such policies in form of gender quotas do not harm performance and cooperation within teams, and do not discourage selection into teams. |
| Keywords: | Affirmative action, cooperation, competition, teams, selection, experiments |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2016-07&r=ger |
| By: | Faruk, Balli; Eleonora, Pierucci |
| Abstract: | We investigate risk sharing channels across different economic sectors to quantify to what extent they contribute offsetting idiosyncratic shocks. We examine the two most relevant channels of smoothing among OECD and EU countries: the international investment income and the savings channels. We find that the households' share in net foreign asset income has a significant role in risk sharing. This surprising result is strictly related to the accumulation of households' foreign asset holdings. On the contrary, governments' cross-border holdings produce a dis-smoothing effect and this might be imputable to the holding of EU countries' assets. This outcome is reversed for the new EU countries in the post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period. With regard to the savings channel, we find that governments significantly contribute to risk sharing, and more significantly after the inception of the GFC. Moreover, the dividend smoothing theory reconciles with the risk-sharing findings since corporations (in particular non financial) significantly smooth shocks through their savings, however their contribution to risk sharing is weak in the post-GFC era. |
| Keywords: | Risk sharing, savings, net factor income, economic sectors. |
| JEL: | F2 F21 F24 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72452&r=ger |
| By: | Fiorillo, Damiano; Nappo, Nunzia |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the effect of formal and informal volunteering on self-perceived health across 9 European countries after controlling, amongst other things, for socio-economic characteristics, social and cultural participation. We employ the 2006 wave of EU-SILC for estimating recursive trivariate probit models with instrumental variables. Our results show that although formal and informal volunteering are correlated with each other, they have a different impact on health. Formal volunteering has a significant positive effect on self-perceived health in the Netherlands, but none in other countries. By contrast, informal volunteering has a significant negative effect on self-perceived health in Austria, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy. |
| Keywords: | Self-perceived health, formal and informal volunteering, social and cultural participation, recursive trivariate probit model, European countries |
| JEL: | C3 D64 I1 P5 Z10 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72313&r=ger |
| By: | Kareem, Fatima Olanike; Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Brümmer, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Non-tariff measures such as food safety standards are used to achieve the non-trade objective of protecting consumers’ health and safety. However, they can also be used as a trade protection tool to drive a price wedge between domestic and foreign producers. This study investigates the protectionist intent of EU food safety standards using a sample of EU food imported from African countries with a specific focus on tomatoes and citrus fruits. We formalize what protectionism is by comparing EU standards to the internationally scientific referenced benchmarks regulated jointly by both the Food and Agricultural Organization and the World Health Organization. Our results show that the EU tomato sector is less dependent on imports and is overprotected by more stringent standards relative to the international benchmarks. Conversely, we find that the EU orange and lime and lemon sectors are heavily import dependent and are under-protected relative to the international standards. These results largely support the hypothesis that heavily import dependent sectors are less protected. |
| Keywords: | Trade Protectionism, Non-tariff barriers, Food Safety Standards, Food exports, Agricultural and Food Policy, Health Economics and Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, F13, F14, L15, P16, Q17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gagfdp:241267&r=ger |
| By: | LaGarda, Guillermo; Manzano, Osmel; Prat, Jordi |
| Abstract: | The region comprising Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic is on path towards a favorable economic environment, characterized by higher growth in the United States (its main trade partner), lower oil prices, and still low financing costs. This environment represents a window of opportunity for the region to overcome the vulnerabilities inherited from the financial crisis and assure long-term growth. The first legacy of the crisis has been higher public debt, which in turn raised risks of deteriorating credit quality. The second legacy involves higher external flows, which had lead to greater financial complexity and created new channels of contagion. This report identifies risks and lays forward guidelines to mitigate them. In addition, it further illustrates how a deterioration in the external environment can generate lower growth prospects for the region, emphasizing the importance of advancing with the aforementioned reforms. - See more at: https://publications.iadb.org/handle/113 19/6821#sthash.6zIWwBoC.dpuf |
| Keywords: | public debt, creditworthiness, economic fundamentals, structural reforms, debt tolerance, fiscal space, financing flows, networks, financial complexity, concentration of flows, contagion, macroprudential regulation, oil prices, growth. |
| JEL: | E0 E01 E62 E66 F3 G17 G2 G38 H3 H30 H5 H6 H60 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72151&r=ger |
| By: | Luigi Bernardi (Università di Pavia) |
| Abstract: | At first glance, it would seem that in recent years the tax changes adopted by EU Member States have diverged from the European Commission’s tax policy recommendations. Member States generally appear to go no further than making minor changes to existing tax rules. The Commission, on the other hand, recommends far broader reforms designed to help tax systems meet the challenges raised by the current economic crisis. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to monitor this situation, and to offer an overall picture of the 2014-2015 tax changes made by European Union Member States. Furthermore, we shall be discussing the EU’s 2015 tax policy recommendations to Member States. By doing so we are in a position to affirm that the said divergence appears to exist, and we offer a number of observations regarding this result. |
| Keywords: | Tax reforms, European Union, 2014-2015 |
| JEL: | H20 H24 H29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:46&r=ger |
| By: | Brennan S. Thompson (Department of Economics, Ryerson University); Matthew D. Webb (Department of Economics, Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we utilize a recently-proposed graphical procedure to show how multiple treatments can be compared while controlling the familywise error rate (the probability of finding one or more spurious differences between the parameters of interest). Monte Carlo simulations suggest that this procedure adequately controls the familywise error rate in finite samples, and has average power nearly identical to a max-$T$ procedure. We demonstrate the flexibility of our proposed approach using two different empirical examples. |
| Keywords: | multiple comparisons; familywise error rate; treatment effects; bootstrap |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rye:wpaper:wp063&r=ger |
| By: | Taylor D. Nadauld; Berk A. Sensoy; Keith Vorkink; Michael S. Weisbach |
| Abstract: | An important cost of investing in private equity is the illiquidity of these investments. In response to this illiquidity, a secondary market for transacting stakes in private equity funds has developed. This paper uses proprietary data from a leading intermediary to understand the magnitude and determinants of transaction costs in this market. Most transactions occur at a discount to net asset value. Buyers average an annualized Public Market Equivalent (PME) of 1.023 compared to 0.974 for sellers, implying that buyers outperform sellers by a market-adjusted five percentage points annually. For the most common type of transaction, the sale of stakes in funds four to nine years old, the difference is smaller, about three percentage points. Both the discount to NAV and the difference in returns between buyers and sellers returns appear to be related to factors associated with asymmetric information and market depth. Buyers in this market tend to be funds-of-funds, while sellers are more likely to be traditional private equity investors such as endowments and pension funds. |
| JEL: | G11 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22404&r=ger |
| By: | Bernd Hayo (University of Marburg); Florian Neumeier (University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we utilise data from a German population survey to test the validity of the Ricardian equivalence theorem (RET). In 2013, 2,000 representatively chosen people were asked whether they have altered their consumption and saving behaviour in response to the significant increase in public debt that occurred between 2008 and 2012. Our findings suggest that, in general, RET does not hold. Only 7% of our respondents state that they consume a smaller proportion of their income and save a larger proportion in response to public debt accumulation. Moreover, using multinominal logit regressions, we find that individuals’ consumption responses are significantly related to their economic situation, time preferences, education, and age. |
| Keywords: | Ricardian equivalence; public debt; private consumption; private saving; survey; Germany |
| JEL: | D12 D91 E21 H31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201611&r=ger |
| By: | Roberto Álvarez; Jaime Ruiz-Tagle |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo explora el impacto de la alfabetización financiera sobre el acceso a deuda, los niveles de endeudamiento y la morosidad de los hogares en Chile. Se encuentra que los niveles de alfabetización financiera son relativamente bajos en los hogares chilenos. Consistente con lo encontrado en estudios previos, los grados de alfabetización financiera tienden a ser menores en los jóvenes y adultos mayores, en las mujeres, en los individuos menos educados, y en los segmentos de menores ingresos. Los resultados econométricos revelan que mayor alfabetización financiera eleva la probabilidad de acceder a deuda, tanto bancaria como en casas comerciales. No obstante, no se encuentra que alfabetización financiera esté asociada significativamente a menores niveles de endeudamiento y morosidad de los hogares. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp424&r=ger |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2335&r=ger |
| By: | Jim O‘Neill; Alessio Terzi |
| Abstract: | 摘要 2008年金融危机期间，G20集团匆匆升格为“全球经济指导委员会”。 在危机的初期，G20集团是个有效遏制危机的组织。 随着危机的减缓，G20集团方向既迷，动力亦失。各国政要认为不必再全力一致行动，转而关注各自的国内要务，他们认为，这才他们的职责所在。 其实，有效的全球管理是长期的需要，并不仅限于危机期间。 我们需要的是一种更具代表性更有效的全球管理机制，来预防危机而不仅仅是对危机作出反应。 在一个全球贸易和财富创造模式快速变化的环境下，在G20集团框架内应设立一个具有高度代表性、以指导经济政策关键事务为己任的新组织。 欧元区各成员国应该放弃他们在G7+集团内的国别席位，让位给中国和其他大型新兴经济体。 若欧元区国家不能采取这一步骤，那么新的G7+集团中也无法协调有效性和代表性之间的关系。 而正是新的G7+集团将负责对全球经济失衡、金融和货币等议题进行决策。 所有现任G20集团国家(包括欧元区各国)仍将留在G20集团内，它甚至还可扩大，但 仍将是一个讨论所有其他全球事务的主要论坛。 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:15545&r=ger |
| By: | Brinca, Pedro (Nova School of Business and Economics); Chari, V. V. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Kehoe, Patrick J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); McGrattan, Ellen R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | We elaborate on the business cycle accounting method proposed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007), clear up some misconceptions about the method, and then apply it to compare the Great Recession across OECD countries as well as to the recessions of the 1980s in these countries. We have four main findings. First, with the notable exception of the United States, Spain, and Ireland, the Great Recession was driven primarily by the efficiency wedge. Second, in the Great Recession, the labor wedge plays a dominant role only in the United States, and the investment wedge plays a dominant role in Ireland and Spain. Third, in the recessions of the 1980s the labor wedge played a dominant role only in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Finally, overall in the Great Recession the efficiency wedge played a much more important role and the investment wedge played a much less important role than they did in the recessions of the 1980s. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle accounting; Great Recession; 1982 recession |
| JEL: | E60 E61 G28 G33 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:531&r=ger |
| By: | Quang-Hoi Vu; Thu Trang Vuong; Quan-Hoang Vuong |
| Abstract: | The notions of entrepreneurship and creativity in developed economies, despite having gained attention among researchers, remain embryonic in numerous emerging economies. Being focused on entrepreneurs in a typical transitional and emerging market economy, Vietnam, this paper aims to empirically explore the influence that past entrepreneurial efforts may exert on the perceptions of entrepreneurs about their own creativity performance. The study also seeks to understand how entrepreneurs social networks contribute to perceived creativity capacity by entrepreneurs who participate in those societies. The empirical research results suggest that entrepreneurs with business experience and active networking engagement are more likely to believe in their own creativity. This knowledge and insights in turn offer some implications for addressing the lack of radical creativity among Vietnamese entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | Creativity/innovation; entrepreneurship; emerging economy; Vietnam |
| JEL: | M13 O33 P21 P27 |
| Date: | 2016–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/233156&r=ger |
| By: | Anonymous |
| Abstract: | This publication is a list of books, chapters, journal articles, staff papers, The Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy publications, International Science & Technology Practice & Policy Center papers, miscellaneous monographs, Center for Farm Financial Management papers, miscellaneous Extension publications, popular press articles, op-ed articles, speeches and unpublished papers, computer software, web pages, abstracts and book reviews and theses authored by members of the University of Minnesota Department of Applied Economics in 2014. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaepl:239845&r=ger |
| By: | Rajesh K Rai; Priya Shyamsundar; Laxmi Dutt Bhatta; Mani Nepal |
| Abstract: | This study was undertaken in the Sardukhola sub-watershed of eastern Nepal to illustrate how local policy instruments can be used to supplement government water supply. We discuss a strategy for using Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) to meet water demand in Dharan Municipality in Nepal. A rigorous process was followed in designing the PES scheme. Following focus group discussions, a Choice Experiment was carried out to determine the preferences of municipal water users. In addition, upstream households were interviewed to understand their requirements to participate in a watershed management program. Finally, we used a series of formal and informal stakeholder consultations to help validate household survey findings and develop an institutional framework for implementing PES. Our analysisindicates that water quality is the most important attribute preferred by water users and that upstream households require incentives to decrease domestic livestock grazing, change agricultural practices and reduce open defecation. Results suggest that developing a PES scheme would be socially acceptable and financially feasible and may contribute to a flow of USD 118,000 per year from water users for watershed management. In concurrence with local stakeholders, we propose a tri-partite institutional structure to implement PES. We note that a national PES policy would make it easier to initiate such integrated and market-oriented approaches for enhancing drinking water supply. |
| Keywords: | Choice experiment, willingness-to-pay, water quality, water users, upstream, watershed management |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snd:wpaper:107&r=ger |
| By: | Khosroshahi, Saeideh Saedi |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:239323&r=ger |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | In this paper, an econometric model of consumption in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2005 is constructed. The Error-Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed and long-run relationship between household consumption and income was found. The primary purpose of this empirical paper is to get a better understanding of the factors driving household consumption in Bulgaria and to estimate a consumption function to be used for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that all households behave in a Keynesian way, basing their consumption decisions on current income. |
| Keywords: | Keynesian consumption function,Error-correction model |
| JEL: | E21 E27 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142469&r=ger |
| By: | Memmel, Christoph; Seymen, Atılım; Teichert, Max |
| Abstract: | We investigate German banks' exposure to interest rate risk. In finance, higher demand for a risky asset is typically associated with higher expected return. However, employing a utility function which implies both risk-averse and risk-seeking behavior depending on the level of profits, we show that this relationship may get weaker and even change its sign at low profit levels. For the period 2005-2014, we find not only the common positive relationship of higher expected returns and rising interest rate exposure but also that this relationship does become weaker with falling operative income, its sign eventually changing. |
| Keywords: | banks' risk taking,exposure to interest rate risk,low interest rate environment |
| JEL: | G11 G21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:222016&r=ger |
| By: | Fuad Aleskerov; Andrey Subochev |
| Abstract: | A unified matrix-vector representation is developed of such solution concepts as the core, the uncovered, the uncaptured, the minimal weakly stable, the minimal undominated, the minimal dominant and the untrapped sets. We also propose several new versions of solution sets. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.02378&r=ger |
| By: | Gassmann, Franziska (UNU‐MERIT, Maastricht University); Francois, Daphne (UNU‐MERIT, Maastricht University); Zardo Trindade, Lorena (Center for Social Policy Herman Deleeck, University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | Aside from providing income support to individuals in dire situations, social welfare benefits may unintentionally influence labour decisions, such as whether or not to take up a job, how many hours to work and which type of work to opt for. This paper investigates the relationship between social welfare benefits and labour market outcomes, measured by labour market participation and work intensity for women and men in Mongolia. Mongolia has an extensive system of social welfare benefits, which are mainly allocated based on categorical criteria, and the country suffers from relatively low labour market participation. The empirical analysis uses data from the 2012 Mongolian Household Socio-economic Survey and applies standard regression analysis and quasi-experimental methods. The paper pays particular attention to women since - in spite of the fact that their level of education is similar to that of men - their labour market participation is considerably lower compared to men. The results of the analysis indicate that social welfare receipt does not affect the labour market participation of men, but it has a negative impact on women. In terms of hours worked, men in beneficiary households tend to work more hours, while women work fewer hours if they are social welfare recipients. |
| Keywords: | social welfare benefits, labour market participation, Mongolia |
| JEL: | I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2016033&r=ger |
| By: | Koen Tackx; Ludo Van der Heyden; Paul Verdin |
| Abstract: | The ‘strategy creation’ process – the process of formulating and implementing strategy – has been under critical study for decades for not delivering the desired results. The discussion on how a strategy process should be run has resulted in a number of ‘strategy schools’.Procedural justice theory is relevant to this discussion. It states that when people impacted by a process consider the process as ‘fair’ they demonstrate a higher level of trust and commitment, and performance increases. This article evaluates the extent to which traditional ‘strategy schools’ comply with the tenets of procedural justice theory and highlight the non-compliance with these tenets for each of these schools. We then propose a new strategy process model which has a greater fair process dimension than any of the more traditional ‘strategy schools’ and as such offers the potential to bring greater effectiveness to the strategy process. |
| Keywords: | Procedural Justice; Fair Process; Strategy Formulation; Strategy Implementation; Strategy Schools; Change Management |
| JEL: | M30 M31 M37 L21 |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/233035&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia has achieved an impressive 84% electrification ratio, but faces significant challenges in reaching the remaining 16% of its households. This report describes Indonesia’s electrification environment and identifies barriers to achieving universal electricity access. Principles drawn from international best practices such as government commitment, enabling institutional environments, adequate and sustainable financing, and stakeholder coordination are discussed in the context of Indonesia’s energy sector. The report gives recommendations for establishing service standards, streamlining financing, setting appropriate targets, and monitoring and evaluation, as well as near-term steps to help achieve universal electricity access. |
| Keywords: | adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, indonesia, indonesia electrification, electricity access, electrification ratios, SII, energy services, rural electrification, energy access, financing electricity access, lisdes, listrik pedesaan, sumba iconic island initiative, ta 8287-ino |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167922&r=ger |
| By: | Alcaraz Carlo; Villavazo Martin Sergio |
| Abstract: | The Mexican economy experienced a shortage of natural gas from the second quarter of 2012 through the second half of 2013. In order to deal with this problem, the state-owned national supplier of natural gas (Pemex) implemented a system that restricts the amount of natural gas used by the manufacturing sector. With this information, we have constructed a "shortage index" that represents the percentage of natural gas restricted per month in each region. We quantify the effect of natural gas shortages on the manufacturing sector and the GDP using a panel data model with state and time fixed effects. We estimate that the natural gas shortage reduced the Mexican GDP annual growth rate by 0.28 percentage points in the second quarter of 2013. |
| Keywords: | Public Economy |
| JEL: | D24 H40 O14 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-10&r=ger |
| By: | Darolia, Rajeev (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | There is ample concern that college students are making ill-informed student loan decisions with potentially negative consequences to themselves and the broader economy. This paper reports the results of a randomized field experiment in which college students are provided salient information about their borrowing choices. The setting is a large flagship public university in the Midwest, and the sample includes all nongraduating students who previously borrowed student loan money (~10,000 students). Half of the students received individually tailored letters with simplified information about future monthly payments, cumulative borrowing, and the typical borrowing of peers; the other half is the control group that received no additional information. There are at most modest effects of the letter overall, which suggests that information alone is not sufficient to drive systematically different borrowing choices among students. However, some key student subgroups changed their borrowing in response to the letter, particularly those with low GPAs. There is also evidence of intended (more contact with financial aid professionals) and unintended (lower Pell Grant receipt) consequences of the letter. |
| Keywords: | Student Loans; Debt Letter; Financial Literacy; Payment Cards Center; |
| JEL: | D83 H52 I22 I28 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:16-18&r=ger |
| By: | Igor Fedotenkov (Bank of Lithuania) |
| Keywords: | labour shares, population ageing, CES production function |
| JEL: | E25 C51 J14 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lie:wpaper:28&r=ger |
| By: | Carolyn Chisadza and Manoel Bittencourt; Manoel Bittencourt |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of different socioeconomic indicators on fertility rates in 48 sub-Saharan African countries between 1970 and 2012. The results, based on panel analysis with fixed effects and instrumental variables, show that initially income per capita and infant mortality explain a signiÂ…cant part of the fertility decline in the region. However, the introduction of technology as an instrument augments the effect of education in reducing fertility. The results also provide signiÂ…cant evidence for fertility declines through increased female education. These results support empirical evidence of the uniÂ…ed growth theory which emphasises the role of technology in raising the demand for education and bringing about a demographic transition during the Post-Malthusian period. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | I25 J13 O55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:620&r=ger |
| By: | Lopamudra Chakraborti (Division of Economics, CIDE); Michael Margolis (Division of Economics, CIDE); José Jaime Sainz Santamaria (Division of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first, direct evidence that poorer communities in Mexico are associated with higher toxics pollution releases. We utilize previously unused, self-reported, plant-level annual database (from 2004 to 2012) and socioeconomic characteristics of the nearby population from the 2000 Census. Our measure of "Prosperity" is linked ot both a lower probability of toxic discharges into water as well as lower levels of averange releases. In addition, we find that at the bottom quintile of the "Prosperity" distribution, the predicted probability that a plant discharges in the fouth quartile of the pollution distribution is somewhat higher (28%) than for the first quartile of pollution. This negative association is consistent with two related findings that also indicate environmental justice concerns. A one prosperity point increase results in plants cleaning up i.e. reducing their toxic releases by as much as 10%. This order of magnitude is valid irrespective of the initial pollution levels reported by plants. Second, it is also linked with a 0.1% reduction in the probability of inaccurate reporting. Lastly, some evidence is found on changes in socioeconomic status indicator linked to decline in pollution. |
| Keywords: | industrial pollution, local income and unemployment effects, informal regulation, environmental justice, community pressure, toxic releasis in Mexico |
| JEL: | Q52 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte597&r=ger |
| By: | Kevin J. Mumford |
| Abstract: | Gross domestic product (GDP) and household income measures provide invaluable metrics of economic activity in an economy, but they tell us little about the sustainability of the economic trends. National wealth accounting can be utilised to determine the size of the underlying productive base, which provides insight into the sustainability of economic activities and indicates the potential for intergenerational well-being. An empirical methodology was developed to measure wealth and then used to analyse multiple Asian countries. A common theme found across the Asian countries was the depletion of natural capital (forests, minerals and energy) and the development of human and produced capital. A strong correlation between growth in GDP per capita and wealth per capita was also found, but there are instances of GDP growth and wealth growth having different signs. |
| Keywords: | wealth accounting, sustainability, economic policy, intergenerational |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201619&r=ger |
| By: | Cagri S. Kumru (The Australian National University); John Piggott (The University of New South Wales); Athanasios C. Thanopoulos (University of Athens) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the relative performance in terms of welfare of the current U.S. PAYG system compared to an array of cost equivalent alternative specifications of means-tested pension programs. We conduct our analysis under two different settings. While in the first setting, individuals have standard preferences, in the second setting individuals have self-control preferences. We show that the implications of the reform substantially differs across the two settings. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp340&r=ger |
| By: | Thiago Christiano Silva; Benjamin Miranda Tabak; Solange Maria Guerra |
| Abstract: | We compare two widely employed models that estimate systemic risk: DebtRank and Differential DebtRank. We show that not only network cyclicality but also the average vulnerability of banks are essential concepts that contribute to widening the gap in the systemic risk estimates of both approaches. We find that systemic risk estimates are the same whenever the network has no cycles. However, in case the network presents cyclicality, then we need to inspect the average vulnerability of banks to estimate the underestimation gap. We find that the gap is small regardless of the cyclicality of the network when its average vulnerability is large. In contrast, the observed gap follows a quadratic behavior when the average vulnerability is small or intermediate. We show results using an econometric exercise and draw guidelines both on artificial and real-world financial networks |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:442&r=ger |
| By: | Christina Bannier; Eberhard Feess; Natalie Packham; Markus Walzl |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of imperfect labor market competition on the efficiency of compensation schemes in a setting with moral hazard and risk-averse agents, who have private information on their productivity. Two vertically differentiated firms compete for agents by offering contracts with fixed and variable payments. The superior firm employs both agent types in equilibrium, but the competitive pressure exerted by the inferior firm has a strong impact on contract design: For high degrees of vertical differentiation, i.e. low competition, low-ability agents are under-incentivized and exert too little effort. For high degrees of competition, high-ability agents are over-incentivized and bear too much risk. For a range of intermediate degrees of competition, however, agents' private information has no impact and both contracts are second-best. Interim efficiency of the least-cost separating allocation in the inferior firm is a sufficient condition for equilibrium existence. If this is violated, there can only be equilibria where the inferior firm ''overbids'', i.e. where it would not break even when attracting both agent types. Adding horizontal differentiation allows for pure-strategy equilibria even when there would be no equilibrium without overbidding in the pure vertical model, but equilibria with overbidding fail to exist. |
| Keywords: | Incentive compensation, screening, imperfect labor market competition, vertical differentiation, horizontal differentiation, risk aversion |
| JEL: | D82 D86 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2016-20&r=ger |
| By: | Benjamin K. Sovacool |
| Abstract: | According to some definitions, an energy transition refers to the time that elapses between the introduction of a new primary energy source, or prime mover, and its rise to claiming a substantial share of the overall market. According to one academic view, energy transitions take an incredibly long time to occur. Another view argues the opposite. It suggests that there have been many transitions at varying scales that have occurred quite quickly.that is, between a few years and a decade or so, or within a single generation. This paper holds that both sides are partly right, and partly wrong. After presenting evidence in support of either thesis, it elucidates four lessons for energy analysts and policy makers. Keywords: energy transitions, energy pathways, transition pathways, energy security |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-081&r=ger |
| By: | I. Anthopoulos (University of Athens); C. Pitelis (University of Brunel and University of Athens); C. Liakou (University of Athens) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the nature and economic performance of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Following a historical excursion, we discuss extant views on the nature, performance, economic impact and regulation of SWFs. Following these we pinpoint some limitations and outline some elements of a political economy-based conceptual framework, required for a more comprehensive appreciation of the issue. |
| Keywords: | sovereign wealth funds, performance, economic impact, regulation |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G20 |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper135&r=ger |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | Este primer informe nacional de monitoreo de la eficiencia energética de la República del Paraguay y la base de datos que le da origen constituyen una herramienta de gran utilidad para sensibilizar a las autoridades nacionales en el tema de la eficiencia energética. Representa además un poderoso instrumento análitico para identificar sectores y subsectores con altos potenciales de ahorro energético y focalizar los presupuestos, políticas y programas hacia tales actividades. |
| Keywords: | RECURSOS ENERGETICOS, CONSUMO DE ENERGIA, RENDIMIENTO ENERGETICO, INDUSTRIA, PRODUCTOS MANUFACTURADOS, TRANSPORTE, VIVIENDA, COMERCIO DE SERVICIOS, AGRICULTURA, PESCA, BASES DE DATOS, ENERGY RESOURCES, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, INDUSTRY, MANUFACTURES, TRANSPORT, HOUSING, TRADE IN SERVICES, AGRICULTURE, FISHING, DATABASES |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:40288&r=ger |
| By: | Galama, Titus; van Kippersluis, Hans |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a unified theory of human capital with both health capital and, what we term, skill capital endogenously determined within the model. By considering joint investment in health capital and in skill capital, the model highlights similarities and differences in these two important components of human capital. Health is distinct from skill: health is important to longevity, provides direct utility, provides time that can be devoted to work or other uses, is valued later in life, and eventually declines, no matter how much one invests in it (a dismal fact of life). Lifetime earnings are strongly multiplicative in skill and health, so that investment in skill capital raises the return to investment in health capital, and vice versa. The theory provides a conceptual framework for empirical and theoretical studies aimed at understanding the complex relationship between education and health, and generates several new testable predictions. |
| Keywords: | health investment, lifecycle model, human capital, health capital, optimal control |
| JEL: | D91 I10 I12 J00 J24 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1094&r=ger |
| By: | Piggins, Ashley; Duddy, Conal |
| Abstract: | The assumption that the social preference relation is complete is demanding. We distinguish between “hard” and “soft” incompleteness, and explore the social choice implications of the latter. Under soft incompleteness, social preferences can take values in the unit interval. We motivate interest in soft incompleteness by presenting a version of the strong Pareto rule that is suited to the context of a [0, 1]-valued social preference relation. Using a novel approach to the quasi-transitivity of this relation we prove a general oligarchy theorem. Our framework allows us to make a distinction between a “strong” and a “weak” oligarchy, and our theorem identifies when the oligarchy must be strong and when it can be weak. Weak oligarchy need not be undesirable. |
| Keywords: | Oligarchy; Gibbard’s theorem; Incompleteness; Max-star transitivity |
| JEL: | D71 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72392&r=ger |
| By: | Maestas, Nicole; Mullen, Kathleen J.; Strand, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper reports research on the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program, which is designed to provide income to support workers who become unable to work because of a severe, long-lasting disability. The research used administrative data to estimate the effect of labor market conditions, as measured by the unemployment rate, on the number of SSDI applications, the number and composition of initial allowances and denials, and the timing of applications relative to disability onset. The authors analyzed the period of the Great Recession, and compare this period with business cycle effects over the past two decades, from 1992 through 2012. The analysis isolates the quantity and composition of applicants who are induced to apply for SSDI benefits when labor market opportunities decline, and therefore provides important new evidence about the group for whom SSDI application is a substitute for labor force participation, and their impact on the SSDI program. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1088&r=ger |
| By: | Sven Rudolph; Toru Morotomi |
| Abstract: | While the Paris COP21 Agreement blazes the trail for global climate policy, bottom-up market-based initiatives like the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Emissions Trading Scheme (TMG ETS) are still valuable supplements. The program has just finished its first compliance period: It’s high time for an interim evaluation. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-16-002&r=ger |
| By: | Mauricio Contreras; Rely Pellicer; Marcelo Villena |
| Abstract: | We study the structure of a simple dynamic optimization problem consisting of one state and one control variable, from a physicist's point of view. By using an analogy to a physical model, we study this system in the classical and quantum frameworks. Classically, the dynamic optimization problem is equivalent to a classical mechanics constrained system, so we must use the Dirac method to analyze it in a correct way. We find that there are two second-class constraints in the model: one fix the momenta associated with the control variables, and the other is a reminder of the optimal control law. The dynamic evolution of this constrained system is given by the Dirac's bracket of the canonical variables with the Hamiltonian. This dynamic results to be identical to the unconstrained one given by the Pontryagin equations, which are the correct classical equations of motion for our physical optimization problem. In the same Pontryagin scheme, by imposing a closed-loop $\lambda$-strategy, the optimality condition for the action gives a consistency relation, which is associated to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of the dynamic programming method. A similar result is achieved by quantizing the classical model. By setting the wave function $\Psi(x,t) = e^{iS(x,t)}$ in the quantum Schr\"odinger equation, a non-linear partial equation is obtained for the $S$ function. For the right-hand side quantization, this is the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, when $S(x,t)$ is identified with the optimal value function. Thus, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in Bellman's maximum principle, can be interpreted as the quantum approach of the optimization problem. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.01317&r=ger |
| By: | Willman, Paul (London School of Economics); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Forth, John (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)) |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the financial resources of trades unions in the UK, both updating previous work and attempting to understand the management of first and second order collective action problems. First order problems refer to the problems of initiating collective action and second order problems refer to the management of collective action organisations. Unions are 'cost disease' organisations in which expenditure outstrips inflation but revenue may not. Their economic model cannot survive without some form of external subsidy. Both aggregate and case study data – from the largest UK union, Unite – are presented to illustrate the cost disease problem and to suggest options for its management. |
| Keywords: | trade unions, collective action |
| JEL: | J51 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10043&r=ger |
| By: | Ben Fine (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London); Alfredo Saad-Filho (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London); Kate Bayliss (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London); Mary Robertson (The University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the theories and practices of neoliberalism drawing upon five case studies of housing and water across Poland, Portugal, South Africa, Turkey and the United Kingdom. This examination ranges across thirteen aspects of (‘things you need to know about’) neoliberalism. They include the argument that neoliberalism is not reducible to a cogent ideology or a change in economic or social policies, nor is it primarily about a shift in the relationship between the state and the market or between workers and capital in general, or finance in particular. Instead, neoliberalism is a stage in the development of capitalism underpinned by financialisation. Neoliberalism is highly diversified in its features, impact and outcomes, reflecting specific combinations of scholarship, ideology, policy and practice. In turn, these are attached to distinctive material cultures giving rise to the (variegated) neoliberalisation of everyday life and, at a further remove, to specific modalities of economic growth, volatility and crisis. Finally, this paper argues that there are alternatives, both within and beyond neoliberalism itself. |
| Keywords: | financialisation, neoliberalism, housing, water, capitalism |
| JEL: | H4 L95 R31 R38 P16 P1 P10 |
| Date: | 2016–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper155&r=ger |
| By: | Schneider, Tim; Meub, Lukas; Bizer, Kilian |
| Abstract: | Markets for expert services are characterized by information asymmetries between experts and consumers. We analyze the effects of consumer information, where consumers suffer from either a minor or serious problem and only experts can infer the appropriate treatment. Consumer information is a noisy signal that is informative about a consumer's problem severity. In a laboratory experiment, we show that consumers are generally reluctant to accept expensive treatment recommendations, which is endorsed by good signals and fundamentally changed by bad signals. Experts condition their cheating on a consumer's risk of suffering from a serious problem if they can observe consumer information. Accordingly, experts and low-risk consumers benefit at the expense of more frequently cheated high-risk consumers. Consumer information leads to more appropriate treatments being carried out and thus superior overall welfare. In contrast to our theoretical predictions, this effect does not depend on hiding consumer information for experts. |
| Keywords: | consumer information,credence goods,experts,laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | C70 C91 D82 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:285&r=ger |
| By: | Philippe Bacchetta; Kenza Benhima; Yannick Kalantzis |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the implications of a persistent liquidity trap in a monetary model with asset scarcity and price exibility. We show that a liquidity trap leads to an increase in cash holdings and may be associated with a long-term output decline. This long-term impact is a supply-side effect that may arise when agents are heterogeneous. It occurs in particular with a persistent deleveraging shock, leading investors to hold cash yielding a low return. Policy implications differ from shorter-run analyses. Quantitative easing leads to a deeper liquidity trap. Exiting the trap by increasing expected inflation or applying negative interest rates does not solve the asset scarcity problem. |
| Keywords: | Zero lower bound; liquidity trap; asset scarcity; deleveraging |
| JEL: | E40 E22 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lau:crdeep:16.12&r=ger |
| By: | Alexander Rubchinsky |
| Abstract: | An algorithm of solution of the Automatic Classification (AC for brevity) problem is set forth in the paper. In the AC problem, it is required to find one or several artitions, starting with the given pattern matrix or dissimilarity, similarity matrix. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.02419&r=ger |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Stenkula, Mikael (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | The surplus that is created in a successful entrepreneurial venture is much higher than the profit corresponding to the risk-adjusted market rate of return. The part of the surplus that exceeds this level may be enoted “entrepreneurial rent.” Such rents normally disappear in the long run but so-called isolating mechanisms ensure that these rents persist in the short or medium run. Entrepreneurial rents arise when successful entrepreneurship is exercised and entrepreneurial firms create and successfully commercialize something new and unique. The presence of and search for entrepreneurial rents is a prerequisite for the innovations and structural change required to generate economic growth. High ex post compensation for successful entrepreneurship cannot be taxed harshly without affecting entrepreneurs’ willingness to supply effort. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship; Economic rent; Entrepreneurial rent; Innovation; Imitation |
| JEL: | D51 J30 L26 O31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1128&r=ger |
| By: | Christopher McDonald; Craig Thamotheram; Shaun P. Vahey; Elizabeth C. Wakerly |
| Abstract: | We consider the fundamental issue of what makes a “good” probability forecast for a central bank operating within an inflation targeting framework. We provide two examples in which the candidate forecasts comfortably outperform those from benchmark specifications by conventional statistical metrics such as root mean squared prediction errors and average logarithmic scores. Our assessment of economic significance uses an explicit loss function that relates economic value to a forecast communication problem for an inflation targeting central bank. We analyse the Bank of England’s forecasts for inflation during the period in which the central bank operated within a strict inflation targeting framework in our first example. In our second example, we consider forecasts for inflation in New Zealand generated from vector autoregressions, when the central bank operated within a flexible inflation targeting framework. In both cases, the economic significance of the performance differential exhibits sensitivity to the parameters of the loss function and, for some values, the differentials are economically negligible. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting inflation, Inflation targeting, Cost-loss ratio, Forecast evaluation, Monetary policy |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-40&r=ger |
| By: | Dana Gabriela SISEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | The Romanian banking system, though under multiple layout characterized positive (capitalization, monitoring, regulation, solvency, risk factors, etc.), is involved in solving some major problems and in direct connection with the sides of his qualitative. Problems with positive impact on the work of the domestic banking system, customize under different aspect, between which: natural factors, they have generated, the directions in which action must be taken and the strategies imposed by the identification of solutions to solve each problem. Of these factors, the generator problem in the banking business, presents the importance. Many high-risk problems for the banking business are attributable to internal factors, management, management, regulation and monitoring of activities, methods for carrying out financial intermediation operations. Due to internal factors, banking entities are faced with significant problems, such as delays in the resumption of crediting in foreign currency lending priority (especially in CHF), the share of bad loans (most of them outsourced), lack of credibility towards consumers, etc. In regards to the problems stemming from external factors, they may be, in essence: financial disintermediation, delays in application of regulations the concurring with the new European vision in the field of banking activity, etc. Essential aspects relating to issues impacting the banking activity shall be entered in the following. |
| Keywords: | financial disintermediation, foreign liabilities, external financing lines, subprime loans, digitization of banking services |
| JEL: | E44 G32 H81 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wp2015:2015-09&r=ger |
| By: | Audrey Laporte; Adrian Rohit Dass; Brian S. Ferguson |
| Keywords: | Arellano-Bond, dynamic panel |
| JEL: | C23 I12 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cch:wpaper:160008&r=ger |
| By: | Yishen Liu; Yao Pan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the net impact of birth control policy in China on educational attainment of the partially excluded ethnic minorities. Exploring county-level variation in the value of fines levied for unsanctioned births, we show that more stringent enforcement of the birth control policy reduces educational attainment of urban ethnic minorities. Suggestive evidence shows this negative impact is likely to reflect the spillover effect from improved quality of ethnic majority children. For rural ethnic minorities, however, the level of enforcement of the birth control policy does not significantly affect education. The documented negative impact on education of urban ethnic minorities, combined with the improved quality found for both rural and urban ethnic majorities, implies that the birth control policy substantially contributes to the rising educational gap between ethnic minorities and majorities in China. |
| Keywords: | birth control, education, minority, quantity.quality tradeoff, China |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-077&r=ger |
| By: | Spiegler, Ran |
| Abstract: | The conventional rational-expectations postulate rules out the possibility that agents will form systematically biased forecasts of economic variables. I revisit this question under the assumption that agents' expectations are based on a misperceived causal model. Specifically, I analyze a model in which an agent forms forecasts of economic variables after observing a signal. His forecasts are based on fitting a subjective causal model - formalized as a direct acyclic graph, following the 'Bayesian networks' literature - to objective long-run data. I show that the agent's forecasts are never systematically biased if and only if his graph is perfect - equivalently, if the direction of the causal links he postulates has no empirical content. I demonstrate the relevance of this result for economic applications - mainly a stylized 'monetary policy' example in which the inflation-output relation obeys an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11379&r=ger |
| By: | Qinglong Zhou; Gaofeng Zong |
| Abstract: | We consider a general time-inconsistent stochastic linear-quadratic differential game. The time-inconsistency arises from the presence of quadratic terms of the expected state as well as state-dependent term in the objective functionals. We define an equilibrium strategy, which is different from the classical one, and derived a sufficient conditions for equilibrium strategies via a system of forward-backward stochastic differential equations. When the state is one-dimensional and the coefficients are all deterministic, we find an explicit equilibrium strategy. The uniqueness of such equilibrium strategy is also given. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00638&r=ger |
| By: | Ran Spiegler (Tel Aviv University; University College London (UCL); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)) |
| Abstract: | The conventional rational-expectations postulate rules out the possibility that agents will form systematically biased forecasts of economic variables. I revisit this question under the assumption that agents' expectations are based on a misperceived causal model. Specifically, I analyze a model in which an agent forms forecasts of economic variables after observing a signal. His forecasts are based on fitting a subjective causal model - formalized as a direct acyclic graph, following the "Bayesian networks" literature - to objective long-run data. I show that the agents' forecasts are never systematically biased if and only if his graph is perfect - equivalently, if the direction of the causal links he postulates has no empirical content. I demonstrate the relevance of this result for economic applications - mainly a stylized "monetary policy" example in which the inflation-output relation obeys an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1619&r=ger |
| By: | Caroline Freund; Sarah Oliver |
| Abstract: | Regulatory standards protect consumers from defective products, but they impede trade when they differ across countries. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) seeks to reduce distortions in the automobile and other industries. This paper evaluates the equivalence of automobile regulations in the United States and the European Union in terms of catastrophe avoidance and estimates the trade gains from improved regulatory coherence. The UN 1958 Agreement on automobiles, which offers a framework for harmonizing regulations among signatories, is used to quantify the trade effect of regulatory convergence. The removal of regulatory differences in autos is estimated to increase trade by 20 percent or more. The effect on trade from harmonizing standards is only slightly smaller than the effect of EU accession on auto trade. The large economic gains from regulatory harmonization imply that TTIP has the potential to improve productivity while lowering prices and enhancing variety for consumers. |
| Keywords: | Regulatory harmonization, difference-in-differences, trade agreement |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/59&r=ger |
| By: | Christopher Jepsen; Peter Mueser; Kenneth Troske |
| Abstract: | We evaluate returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification for high school dropouts using state administrative data. We apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity method to account for test takers retaking the test. For women we find that GED certification has no statistically significant effect on either employment or earnings. For men we find a significant increase in earnings in the second year after taking the test but no impact in subsequent years. GED certification increases postsecondary school enrollment by 4–8 percentage points. Our results differ from regression discontinuity approaches that fail to account for test retaking. |
| Keywords: | General educational development (GED) tests; Postsecondary education |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/7729&r=ger |
| By: | Luca Fiorito; Cosma Orsi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to provide a compressive assessment of Thomas Nixon Carver’s thought - from his early formative years in the 1880s to his post WWII career as a journalist and pamphleteer. The main (albeit not exclusive) focus of this paper will be on the theoretical and philosophical coordinates of Carver’s “new liberalism” - his own definition - and how this broad vision was intrinsically connected with an explicit hierarchical and eugenic approach to human nature. Just as important, what follows is also an attempt to increase our general understanding of the extent in which eugenic considerations permeated the realm of political economy during the first decades of the last century and how, in some specific cases as that of Carver, this influence persisted after the end of the Progressive Era. |
| Keywords: | T. N. CARVER, PROGRESSIVE ERA, EUGENICS. |
| JEL: | B31 B13 B25 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def044&r=ger |
| By: | Khorunzhina, Natalia; Richard, Jean-Francois |
| Abstract: | The objective of the paper is that of constructing finite Gaussian mixture approximations to analytically intractable density kernels. The proposed method is adaptive in that terms are added one at the time and the mixture is fully re-optimized at each step using a distance measure that approximates the corresponding importance sampling variance. All functions of interest are evaluated under Gaussian quadrature rules. Examples include a sequential (filtering) evaluation of the likelihood function of a stochastic volatility model where all relevant densities (filtering, predictive and likelihood) are closely approximated by mixtures. |
| Keywords: | Finite mixture, Distance measure, Gaussian quadrature, Importance sampling, Adaptive algorithm, Stochastic volatility, Density kernel |
| JEL: | C11 C63 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72326&r=ger |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the role of cities in energy policies to build resilience and assesses related energy policy practices in cities. It analyses how energy affects resilience in cities from the economic, environmental, social and institutional perspectives. It also assesses the policy practices of six cities; Barcelona (Spain), Bristol (UK), Kyoto (Japan), Munich (Germany), Perpignan (France) and Toronto (Canada). This paper outlines the building blocks of key policy strategies; adaptive energy management, robust energy management, redundant energy management, flexible energy management, inclusive energy management, resourceful energy management and integrated energy management. It proposes a number of policy measures in the building blocks for managing energy smartly in cities to build resilience. |
| Keywords: | energy, resilience, cities, urban development, renewables |
| JEL: | Q48 Q54 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaab:2016/5-en&r=ger |
| By: | Francisco RUGE-MURCIA; Alessandro RIBONI |
| Abstract: | The new Bank of Israel Law of 2010 changed monetary policy decisionmaking at the Bank of Israel from a setup where decisions are taken by the governor to one where decisions are taken by a committee of voting members. We use this institutional change as a natural experiment to compare individual versus collective decisionmaking. Empirical results show different dynamics for interest rate decisions across the two regimes and support the view that the status quo bias is larger when decisions are taken by a committee than when they are taken by a single individual. |
| Keywords: | committees, voting models, political economy of central banking |
| JEL: | D7 E5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtl:montec:06-2016&r=ger |
| By: | Anastasia Semykina (Florida State University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an estimation approach that addresses the problems of sample selection and endogeneity of fertility decisions when estimating the effect of young children on women's self-employment. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, 1982-2006, we find that ignoring self-selection and endogeneity leads to underestimating the effect of young children. Once both sources of biases are accounted for, the estimated effect of young children more than doubles when compared to uncorrected results. This finding is robust to the several changes in specification and to the use of a different data set. |
| Keywords: | self-employment, fertility, endogeneity, sample selection |
| JEL: | J13 J22 C33 C34 C35 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsu:wpaper:wp2016_07_02&r=ger |
| By: | Purvi Sevak; Lucie Schmidt |
| Abstract: | This issue brief summarizes our research findings on the factors related to geographic variation and the growth of the child Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. |
| Keywords: | Child SSI Participation |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:d5a5b2928287481facc705d800a656af&r=ger |
| By: | Muhammad Ali (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration); Abiodun Egbetokun (National Centre for Technology Management Federal Ministry of Science and Technology, Nigeria, and Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria South Africa); Manzoor Hussain Memon (Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Karachi, Pakistan, and Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show that inconclusive results in previous empirical studies on human capital and growth might be due to omitted variable bias. Using data for about 130 countries, we show that after inclusion of variables related to the social capabilities concept of Abramovitz (1986) i.e. economic opportunities and quality of legal institutions, the human capital variable turns out to be significant. We also show that economic opportunities significantly moderate the relationship between human capital and growth. The results are robust to different variants of indices for economic opportunities and the quality of legal system. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Economic Growth, Economic Opportunities, Social Capabilities |
| JEL: | O15 O4 |
| Date: | 2016–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2016-013&r=ger |
| By: | Margaret Burchinal; Louisa Tarullo; Martha Zaslow |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this brief is to demonstrate how using the principles of scale development can support the development of QRIS ratings. |
| Keywords: | QRIS, Quality rating and improvement system, best practices, rating scales, early childhood |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:a290cbcab7fa4aa197c03e841c8f0f5c&r=ger |
| By: | Ayse Kabukcuoglu (Koc University); Enrique Martínez-García (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the market resources method (MRM) for solving dynamic optimization problems. MRM extends Carroll’s (2006) endogenous grid point method (EGM) for problems with more than one control variable using policy function iteration. The MRM algorithm is simple to implement and provides advantages in terms of speed and accuracy over Howard’s policy improvement algorithm. Codes are available. |
| Keywords: | DSGE models; Computational methods; Policy function iteration; Endogenous grid. |
| JEL: | C6 C61 C63 C68 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1607&r=ger |
| By: | Atushi Inoue; Barbara Rossi |
| Abstract: | In the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), estimating beta consistently is important to obtain a consistent estimate of the price of risk. However, it is often found that the estimate of beta is sensitive to the choice of portfolios used in the estimation. This paper provides a new test to evaluate whether the choice of portfolios in typical asset price regressions is valid, in the sense that the portfolios satisfy two conditions: (i) the way the portfolios are formed are exogenous; and (ii) the choice of the group of assets to include in the portfolios provides enough information to identify the parameters of interest. Thus, checking the validity of the portfolio choice is an important pre-requisite to ensure consistent estimates of the parameters of the model. We illustrate the performance of the test in small samples via Monte Carlo simulations.The proposed test is also applicable to group and pseudo panel data models. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:909&r=ger |
| By: | Seema Jayachandran; Joost de Laat; Eric F. Lambin; Charlotte Y. Stanton |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates a Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) program in western Uganda that offered forest-owning households cash payments if they conserved their forest. The program was implemented as a randomized trial in 121 villages, 60 of which received the program for two years. The PES program reduced deforestation and forest degradation: Tree cover, measured using high-resolution satellite imagery, declined by 2% to 5% in treatment villages compared to 7% to 10% in control villages during the study period. We find no evidence of shifting of tree-cutting to nearby land. We then use the estimated effect size and the "social cost of carbon" to value the delayed carbon dioxide emissions, and compare this benefit to the program's cost. |
| JEL: | O10 O13 Q23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22378&r=ger |
| By: | Frank Smets (European Central Bank); Stefania Villa (KU Leuven; University of Foggia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether financial conditions of the non-financial corporate sector can explain why the recovery from recessions in the United States is slower since the mid-1980s. Leverage by the corporate sector has increased significantly since the financial deregulation of the mid-1980s. Empirical evidence shows that slow recoveries are associated with a significant drop in the growth rates of investment and bank loans, and with a surge in the growth rates of corporate bonds. In an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, counterfactual experiments based on estimates of two samples - 1965-1983 and 1984-2007 - show that the non-financial corporate indebtedness affects only marginally the speed of the recovery in the two samples. |
| Keywords: | speed of recoveries, indebtedness, financial frictions, estimated DSGE model. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbk:bbkcam:1602&r=ger |
| By: | Rodriguez, Jose S.; Leyva, Janneth; Hopkins, Alvaro |
| Abstract: | The aim of the present work is to evaluate the effect of a teacher training program implemented by the Peruvian Ministry of Education called "Acompañamiento Pedagógico" (Pedagogical Accompaniment) on students performance. Using non-experimental impact evaluation techniques, measurements are made exploiting the test results of the Census of Student Assessment of 2013. The results provide evidence of positive and statistically significant impacts. However, the size of these impacts is relatively moderate. Several hypotheses could explain the effect size. These are discussed at the end of the document.. |
| Keywords: | capacitación laboral, teachers tranning, evaluación de impacto, impact evaluation, rendimiento estudiantil, student assessment |
| JEL: | I21 J45 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72400&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of Cofinancing Operations, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of Cofinancing Operations, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The Annual Report of the Japan Scholarship Program (JSP) covers the period January–? December and presents the JSP’s activities, achievements, and success stories from students and alumni. The JSP was established in ??? to give qualified citizens of developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank an opportunity to take postgraduate studies in economics, business and management, science and technology, and other development-related fields at ? educational institutions in countries in Asia and the Pacific. Between ??? and , Japan contributed around ? ?? million to the JSP. A total of ?, ?? scholarships have been awarded to recipients from ?? member countries, with , ?? of them being women. Of the total, ,??? scholars have already completed their courses. An average of ? scholarships are awarded each year. |
| Keywords: | education; scholarship; postgraduate studies; poverty reduction; economics; business and management studies; science and technology |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167903&r=ger |
| By: | Isabel Günther (ETH Zürich); Melanie Grosse (Georg-August University Göttingen); Stephan Klasen (Georg-August University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the drivers of the size of the audience and number of questions asked in parallel sessions at the annual conference of the German Economics Association. We find that the location of the presentation is at least as important for the number of academics attending a talk as the combined effect of the person presenting and the paper presented. Being a presenter in a late morning session on the second day of a conference, close to the place where coffee is served, significantly increases the size of the audience. When it comes to asking questions, location becomes less important, but smaller rooms lead to more questions being asked (by women). Younger researchers as well as very senior researchers attract more questions and comments. There are also interesting gender effects. Women attend research sessions more diligently than men, but seem to ask fewer questions than men. Men are less likely to attend presentations on health, education, welfare, and development economics than women. Our findings suggest that strategic scheduling of sessions could ensure better participation at conferences. Moreover, different behaviors of men and women at conferences might also contribute to the lack of women in senior scientist positions. |
| Keywords: | Economists; Conference; Preferences; Gender Differences |
| JEL: | A11 B54 |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:210&r=ger |
| By: | Galasso, Alberto; Luo, Hong |
| Abstract: | Current academic and policy debates focus on the impact of tort reforms on physicians' behavior and medical costs. This paper examines whether these reforms also affect incentives to develop new technologies. We find that, on average, laws that limit the liability exposure of healthcare providers are associated with a significant reduction in medical device patenting. Tort reforms have the strongest impact in medical fields in which the probability of facing a malpractice claim is the largest, and they do not seem to affect the propensity to develop technologies of the highest and lowest quality. Our results underscore the importance of considering dynamic effects in the economic analysis of tort laws. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11358&r=ger |
| By: | Hernandez-Chanto, Allan |
| Abstract: | There have been many episodes in history where low-denomination money holdings have been exchanged with a premium over its face value. The most recent occurred in Panama only twenty five years ago, under a modern banking system. In such episodes, even where there is an entity capable to provide convertibility of money holdings at a fixed rate, and when agents expect this rate to prevail in the long run, arbitrage possibilities in the denomination of money arise as a consequence of a shortage of liquid assets and the presence of low prices in the economy. Despite of its relevance and recurrence, this phenomenon cannot be explained by current models of fiat money. To explain it we need a model where: (i) fiat money comes in different denominations which are used as a medium of exchange, (ii) there is an entity that provides convertibility of denominations at fixed rate, (iii) the natural rate is a feasible equilibrium of the model, and (iv) there are parameterizations where low denomination money holdings are given an extrinsic value. In this paper we build a money search model with all this characteristics and determine theoretically the specific conditions under which such equilibrium naturally arises. |
| Keywords: | Convertibility, Extrinsic value, Money holdings, Poisson technology |
| JEL: | E50 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72348&r=ger |
| By: | Nuno Campos Pereira (Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa); Nuno Araújo (CATIM - Centro de Apoio Tecnológico à Indústria Metalomecânica); Leonardo Costa (Católica Porto Business School and CEGE, Universidade Católica Portuguesa) |
| Abstract: | We developed a Counting Multidimensional Innovation Index (MII) framework for measuring and benchmarking innovation of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), groups of SMEs, industries, regions, and countries. The methodology behind the MII is similar to the methodology behind the United Nations Multidimensional Poverty Index and follows the innovation definitions stipulated by the OECD Oslo Manual, covering dimensions and partial indicators suggested by this Manual and/or adapted from the Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS) and from the Global Innovation Index (GII). To illustrate the MII framework, a survey was conducted among SMEs of the metalworking industry in Portugal. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, SME, Multidimensional Innovation Index, Portuguese Metal working Industry |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cap:wpaper:012016&r=ger |
| By: | Amanda E. Kowalski (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | I examine treatment effect heterogeneity within an experiment to inform external validity. The local average treatment effect (LATE) gives an average treatment effect for compliers. I bound and estimate average treatment effects for always takers and never takers by extending marginal treatment effect methods. I use these methods to separate selection from treatment effect heterogeneity, generalizing the comparison of OLS to LATE. Applying these methods to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, I find that the treatment effect of insurance on emergency room utilization decreases from always takers to compliers to never takers. Previous utilization explains a large share of the treatment effect heterogeneity. Extrapolations show that other expansions could increase or decrease utilization. |
| Keywords: | Compliers, Dierence-in-dierence test, Sample local average treatment eect (SLATE), Marginal untreated outcome test, Massachusetts health reform, Program evaluation, Selection |
| JEL: | C1 C9 H4 I13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2045&r=ger |
| By: | Chemla, Gilles; Hennessy, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We examine optimal provision of riskless government bonds under asymmetric information and safe asset scarcity. Paradoxically, corporations have incentives to issue junk debt precisely when intrinsic demand for safe debt is high since uninformed investors then migrate to risky overheated debt markets. Uninformed demand stimulates informed speculation which drives junk debt prices closer to fundamentals, encouraging pooling at high leverage. Acting as borrower of first resort, the government can issue safe bonds which siphon off uninformed demand for risky corporate debt and reduce socially wasteful informed speculation. Thus, government bonds either eliminate pooling at high leverage or improve risk sharing in such equilibria. The optimal quantity of government bonds is increasing in intrinsic demand for safe assets and non-monotonic in marginal Q. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric information; corporate debt markets; governmet debt; issuers; speculators; uninformed investors |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11362&r=ger |
| By: | Robert Breunig; Omer Majeed |
| Abstract: | Recent research has highlighted a negative impact of inequality on economic growth. We re-evaluate this hypothesis focusing on both inequality and poverty and their interaction. We replicate previous results showing that inequality has a negative impact on growth. However, we show that when we account for both inequality and poverty, the negative effect of inequality on growth appears to be concentrated amongst countries with high poverty. This would argue for policies targeted towards alleviating poverty rather than policies about redistribution. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Economic Growth, Poverty, Cross-Country Regressions |
| JEL: | O47 D63 I39 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-43&r=ger |
| By: | Waslet, Sandra E. |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este trabajo es desarrollar y proponer un conjunto de normas de procedimientos y circuitos administrativos en la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata para las erogaciones en bienes de consumo, servicios no personales y bienes de uso que se ejecuten sin la intervención de la Dirección de Suministros bajo las modalidades de Cajas Chicas, Cajas Chicas PET, Fondos Rotatorios, Adelantos de Fondos, Anticipos de Viáticos y Gastos de Movilidad para garantizar el funcionamiento de la administración financiera como sistema y facilitar el control interno dentro de la organización de acuerdo a las nuevas tendencias. |
| Keywords: | Administración Universitaria; Administración Financiera; Procedimiento Administrativo; |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2485&r=ger |
| By: | Pestieau, Pierre; Ponthiere, Gregory |
| Abstract: | With the rapid increase in LTC needs, the negligible role of the market and the declining role of informal family care, one would hope that the government would take a more proactive role in the support of dependent elderly, particularly those who cannot, whatever the reason, count on assistance from their family. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the possibility of designing a sustainable public LTC scheme integrating both the market and the family. |
| Keywords: | Dependence; family solidarity; long term care; Social Insurance |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I18 J14 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11365&r=ger |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 7/2016 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:992&r=ger |
| By: | Mester, Loretta J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | I thank the European Economics and Financial Centre for the invitation to speak to this distinguished audience, in this venerable venue, at this historically significant time. I will focus my remarks today on the other side of the pond — in particular, the U.S. economy and monetary policy. But as you know, we live in a global world, and so we are monitoring very closely what is happening on this side of the pond and assessing the implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy on my side of the pond. Before I begin, I should note that the views I'll present today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; labor markets; inflation; Brexit; monetary policy; |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcsp:73&r=ger |
| By: | Rizzo, José Ignacio |
| Abstract: | El estudio y análisis del gasto turístico resulta fundamental para el adecuado planeamiento y desarrollo de toda ciudad en la que la Industria Turística ocupe un lugar preponderante. La etapa preliminar para lograr estudios relevantes en la materia es la recolección de datos, instancia que muchas veces es subestimada a pesar de tener vital importancia para la producción de información económica confiable y fidedigna. En la presente tesis se estudian en forma exploratoria los determinantes del gasto turístico en la ciudad de Mar del Plata para la temporada 2003/2004, en dos apartados claves: el gasto en alimentación y en recreación. A tal fin, se analiza en primer término la estructura del relevamiento que constituye la fuente de información del estudio y se indaga la forma en que dicha encuesta es suministrada a los turistas, puesto que se observa en la base de datos resultante una significativa cantidad de gastos declarados como "nulos" en apartados en los que es difícil pensar que un turista pueda dejar de gastar durante sus vacaciones. Seguidamente, se exploran las características socio-demográficas y económicas de los individuos captados por el relevamiento. Posteriormente, se correlacionan los gastos declarados como nulos con estas características socio-demográficas y económicas de los encuestados, así como del viaje que realizan. Finalmente, se analiza el gasto turístico en recreación y alimentación, identificando aquellos determinantes que más influyen en el mismo. Para ello, se plantea la posibilidad de que exista: a) censura en los datos y b) sesgo de selección muestral. Dichas hipótesis son contrastadas mediante la estimación de los modelos Tobit y Heckit, respectivamente, que permitieron identificar los principales determinantes del nivel del gasto así como las características que presumiblemente llevarían a declarar "cero pesos" en la encuesta, para el caso de la hipótesis del sesgo de selección. Los resultados obtenidos aportan evidencia a favor de esta segunda hipótesis de trabajo, lo que implica que existen características propias de los individuos y su tipo de viaje que nos indican quiénes serían los mejor predispuestos a responder una encuesta de gasto con estas características de manera fidedigna. |
| Keywords: | Gastos de Consumo; Turismo; Alimentación; Recreación; Mar del Plata; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2499&r=ger |
| By: | Christian Schubert (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | Environmental policies are increasingly informed by behavioral economics insights. ‘Green nudges’ in particular have been suggested as a promising new tool to encourage consumers to act in an environmentally responsible way, such as choosing renewable energy sources or saving energy. While there is an emerging literature on the instrumental effectiveness of behavioral policy tools such as these, their ethical assessment has largely been neglected. This paper attempts to fill this gap by, first, providing a structured overview of the most important contributions to the literature on pro-environmental nudges and, second, offering some critical guidelines that may help the practitioner come to an ethically informed assessment of nudges. |
| Keywords: | Nudges, Libertarian Paternalism, Behavioral Economics, Green Defaults, Autonomy |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201609&r=ger |
| By: | Deo, Sandhya |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of user satisfaction regarding the Fiji National University library services through library user surveys. The paper elaborates how these user surveys play a significant role in library service quality enhancement for students and academic to conduct their research and advance their knowledge. The FNU Library is ISO 9001:2008 certified and is the only library in the South Pacific holding ISO certification which therefore plays a vital role in carrying out the survey. The survey was carried out from 3rd September to 1st October 2015 with a vision to obtain valuable feedback from the users and to provide high quality and responsive one-stop service at all 16 FNU libraries. The paper describes these surveys, including the end results and the improvements to be adopted. Responses gathered from user surveys provide literally important information for improving library services. Through these user surveys, the library received a large amount of data to be analyzed. A summary of user surveys, including ways of doing things, and putting into use as well as data analysis, might offer reference and practical experience for the FNU libraries. User survey plays an important role in the library's service quality improvement. The paper provides a valuable summary and practical knowledge of the topic. |
| Keywords: | User satisfaction, Service quality, Customer satisfaction, Libraries |
| JEL: | I23 M30 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72409&r=ger |
| By: | Andreas Eichler; Gunther Leobacher; Michaela Sz\"olgyenyi |
| Abstract: | We propose a model for an insurance loss index and the claims process of a single insurance company holding a fraction of the total number of contracts that captures both ordinary losses and losses due to catastrophes. In this model we price a catastrophe derivative by the method of utility indifference pricing. The associated stochastic optimization problem is treated by techniques for piecewise deterministic Markov processes. A numerical study illustrates our results. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.01110&r=ger |
| By: | Vanessa Tchamyou (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect information sharing has on financial sector development in 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011. Information sharing is measured with private credit bureaus and public credit registries. Hitherto unexplored dimensions of financial sector development are employed, namely: financial sector dynamics of formalization, informalization and non-formalization. The empirical evidence is based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). The following findings are established. Information sharing bureaus increase (reduce) formal (informal/non-formal) financial sector development. In order to ensure that information sharing bureaus improve (decrease) formal (informal/non-formal) financial development, public credit registries should have between 45.45 and 50 percent coverage while private credit bureaus should have at least 26.25 percent coverage. |
| Keywords: | Information sharing; Banking ; Africa |
| JEL: | G20 G29 L96 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/023&r=ger |
| By: | Garbade, Kenneth D. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Following the Treasury–Federal Reserve Accord of March 3, 1951, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) focused on free reserves—the difference between excess reserves (reserve deposits in excess of reserve requirements) and borrowed reserves—as the touchstone of U.S. monetary policy. However, managing free reserves was problematic because highly variable and not readily predictable autonomous factors, including float, Treasury balances at Federal Reserve Banks, and currency in the hands of the public, induced comparable volatility and unpredictability in reserve deposits and hence in free reserves. Managing free reserves effectively required policy instruments that could inject and drain large quantities of reserves quickly at low transaction costs. {{p}}This paper surveys the two leading policy instruments for reserves management: 1) open market purchases and sales of Treasury bills, and 2) repurchase agreements. Outright transactions in bills were specifically authorized by statute and used in unexceptional ways for managing reserves over relatively long periods, but they had significant drawbacks for short-term “in and out” operations when additional reserves were needed for only a few days. Repos, however, while not specifically authorized by statute, were ideally suited for in-and-out operations. The acceptance of repurchase agreements as an instrument of monetary policy, even in the face of active resistance by some FOMC members, illustrates how utility can sometimes trump concerns about statutory authority, equity, and need. |
| Keywords: | repurchase agreements; reserves management; accord |
| JEL: | E5 G2 N2 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:780&r=ger |
| By: | Martin Geiger; Richard Hule |
| Abstract: | We study the potential role of correlated refinancing abilities among different countries for the disruption of government bond markets in a currency union. Following Morris and Shin (2004) we use a global games framework and model the simultaneous investment decision into two assets, which are subject to correlated fundamental states, as a coordination problem with correlated imperfect information. Based on this model we evaluate the role of information about one country for the coordination of creditors of another country. We find, however, that the contagious effects on the price of debt precipitated through correlation are modest. Hence, assuming that investors behave as modeled in the global game, we conclude that correlated fundamentals that precipitate informational spillovers appear to be unlikely to play a major role for e.g. the disruption of some Eurozone government bond markets in the aftermath of the recent financial and economic crisis. |
| Keywords: | Government bond refinancing, global games, creditor coordination, currency union |
| JEL: | D82 G12 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2016-19&r=ger |
| By: | Akay, Alpaslan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and University of Gothenburg); Bargain, Olivier (Aix-Marseille University); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the subjective well-being of migrants is responsive to fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions in their country of origin. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel for the years 1984 to 2009 and macroeconomic variables for 24 countries of origin, we exploit country-year variation for identification of the effect and panel data to control for migrants' observed and unobserved characteristics. We find strong evidence that migrants' well-being responds negatively to an increase in the GDP of their home country. That is, migrants seem to regard home countries as natural comparators, which grounds the idea of relative deprivation underlying the decision to migrate. The effect declines with years-since-migration and with the degree of assimilation in Germany. |
| Keywords: | Migrants, well-being, GDP, unemployment, relative concerns/deprivation |
| JEL: | C90 D63 F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2016038&r=ger |
| By: | Chantal Kegels; Dirk Verwerft |
| Keywords: | Administrative burdens, Administrative simplification, Business environment |
| JEL: | D73 D78 H10 |
| Date: | 2016–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpb:ppaper:115&r=ger |
| By: | Carl Grekou |
| Abstract: | Relying on a panel of 73 emerging and developing countries and on de facto exchange rate regimes’ classification —over the 1980-2012 period, we re-examine empirically the relationship between exchange rate regimes and currency misalignments. Overall our results suggest that no exchange rate regime performs better than the others as currency misalignments do not substantially and significantly differ across exchange rate regimes. This finding is in contrast to the different arguments (both theoretical and empirical) in favor or against any particular regime and instead supports the exchange regime neutrality view. |
| Keywords: | Currency misalignments; Exchange rate regimes; Emerging and developing countries |
| JEL: | C23 F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2016-26&r=ger |
| By: | Cinzia Di Novi; Anna Marenzi; Dino Rizzi |
| Abstract: | In several countries, personal income tax permits tax credits for out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures. Tax credits produce two effects on taxpayers’ disposable income. On the one hand, they benefit taxpayers at all income levels by reducing their net tax liability; on the other hand, they modify the price of out-of-pocket expenditure and, to the extent that consumer demand is price elastic, they may influence the amount of eligible healthcare expenditure for which taxpayers may claim a credit. These two effects influence, in turn, income redistribution and may affect taxpayers’ health status and therefore income-related inequality in health. Redistributive consequences of tax credits have been widely investigated; however, little is known about the ability of tax credits to ensure a more equitable distribution of healthcare expenditure and, consequently, to alleviate health inequality. In this paper, we study the potential effects that tax credits for health expenses may have on health-related inequality with reference to the Italian institutional setting. The analysis is performed using a tax-benefit microsimulation model which reproduces the personal income tax and incorporates taxpayers’ behavioural responses to changes in tax credit rate. Our results suggest that a healthcare tax credit design that does not rely on income, like the one implemented in the Italian personal income tax, is not effective in improving equity in health and tends to favour the richest part of the population. |
| Keywords: | personal income tax, health-related tax credit, health inequality |
| JEL: | I10 I14 H24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2016:16&r=ger |
| By: | Damir Filipovic; Yerkin Kitapbayev |
| Abstract: | We study American swaptions in the linear-rational term structure model introduced in [5]. The American swaption pricing problem boils down to an optimal stopping problem that is analytically tractable. It reduces to a free-boundary problem that we tackle by the local time-space calculus of [9]. We characterize the optimal stopping boundary as the unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation that can be readily solved numerically. We obtain the arbitrage-free price of the American swaption and the optimal exercise strategies in terms of swap rates for both fixed-rate payer and receiver swaps. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.02067&r=ger |
| By: | Luna Azahara Romo González (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive investigation of the determinants of US dollar-denominated long-term debt issuance by European banks. The database used allows the drivers of foreign-currency issuance identified in the literature, including variables at the individual firm (e.g. bank) level, to be explored. The analysis covers overall US dollar issuance as well as Yankee debt issuance, which is defined in this paper as bonds denominated in US dollars issued in domestic US markets by non-US issuers. In addition, issuance determinants are investigated during both crisis and non-crisis periods. The main findings are the following. European banks issue US dollar debt to naturally hedge their US dollar assets (with US dollar exposures obtained from BIS international banking statistics), but they also make extensive use of deviations in covered interest parity and even in uncovered interest parity, particularly after the crisis. There is also evidence that banks issue in US dollars for strategic reasons and that heightened volatility has a negative impact on US dollar issuance. Bank-specific variables are also relevant drivers of US dollar debt issuance: banks with higher asset growth, with a banking subsidiary in the United States and with a high credit rating are more likely to issue in US dollars than others. Bank-specific structures, as captured by deposit and loan ratios, also have a relevant impact on US dollar funding activity in some cases. The results are robust to alternative econometric specifications and to different definitions of covered and uncovered cost savings. |
| Keywords: | bank funding, foreign currency debt issuance, US dollar-denominated debt, interest rate parity, banking crisis, Europe. |
| JEL: | G21 G32 F3 G01 O52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1611&r=ger |
| By: | Danny García Callejas |
| Abstract: | This study found that doubling the level of democracy in Latin America reduces CO2 emissions per capita by up to 6%. This relationship is estimated by using a fixed effects panel system of equations for 19 Latin American countries, between 1995 and 2008. Democracy acts as a conduit for increasing demands on environmental quality in Latin America, due to urban population growth and economic prosperity. Nevertheless, this study has, at least, two caveats: first it cannot unveil the long run relationship between democracy and environmental quality in the region; and, secondly, this study assumes that democracy entails positive outcomes for countries adopting this political system. |
| Keywords: | Democracy, Environmental Quality, CO2 Emissions per Capita, Latin America, Panel System of Equations. |
| JEL: | C33 N46 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2015–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014782&r=ger |
| By: | Rünstler, Gerhard; Vlekke, Marente |
| Abstract: | We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in GDP, credit volumes and house prices for the U.S. and the five largest European economies. With the exception of Germany, we find large and long cycles in credit and house prices, which are highly correlated with a medium-term component in GDP cycles. Differences across countries in the length and size of cycles appear to be related to the properties of national housing markets. The precision of pseudo real-time estimates of credit and house price cycles is roughly comparable to that of GDP cycles. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E44 |
| Keywords: | credit cycle, financial cycles, house prices, model-based filters, unobserved components models |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161915&r=ger |
| By: | Vincent Frogneux; Michel Saintrain |
| Abstract: | Within the framework of the sixth state reform, part of the personal income tax has been regionalised. What's more, in ESA2010, certain tax expenditures which were partly recorded as negative revenue in ESA95 are now recorded as general government expenditure. These changes motivate a revision of the personal income tax model which is used both for the short and medium term projections made by the FPB and for variant analyses. The new model makes a distinction between the “prepayment†tax (payroll tax and advance payments) and the “enrolment†tax (which fixes the amounts due under regional and local additional levies). It provides a better link to the macroeconomy and explicitly takes into account the schedule of tax enrolment. |
| JEL: | C19 E62 H24 H77 |
| Date: | 2016–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1604&r=ger |
| By: | Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise |
| Abstract: | Different methods have been used in the literature to mesure and analyze price markup cyclical behavior. We use a medium-scale DSGE Model with positive trend in ation, in which aggregate fluctuations are driven by neutral technology, marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) and monetary policy shocks and, where both price and wage markups vary. We find that when raising trend inflation from 0 to 4 percent, wage markup is more important than price markup in explaining the dynamics effects of shocks. Thus, the interactions between positive trend inflation and MEI shocks have greater cyclical effects on wage markup than on price markup. These results put into question the focus on the price markup cyclicality in the literature which ignore the implications of trend inflation. |
| Keywords: | Markups, cyclicality, New Keynesian Models |
| JEL: | E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72478&r=ger |
| By: | Costa-Font, J.; Sato, A. |
| Abstract: | Culture is an under-studied determinant of health production and seldom measured. This paper empirically examines the persistence and association of health capital assessments of first and second-generation migrants with that of their ancestral countries. We draw on European data from 30 countries, including over 90 countries of birth and control for timing of migration, selective migration and other controls including citizenship and cultural proxies. Our results show robust evidence of cultural persistence of health assessments. Culture persists, rather than fades, and further, appears to strengthen over generations. We estimate a one standard deviation increase in ancestral health assessment increases first generation migrant’s health assessments by an average of 16%, and that of second generation migrants between 11% and 25%. Estimates are heterogeneous by gender (larger for males) and lineage (larger for paternal lineage). |
| Keywords: | assimilation; health; health assessments; cultural persistence; first generation migrant; second generation migrant; |
| JEL: | I18 H23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:16/09&r=ger |
| By: | Powell, David; Seabury, Seth A. |
| Abstract: | Injuries sustained at work represent large income and welfare losses to households and there is a significant policy interest in reducing these burdens. Workers' compensation program is a large government program which provides monetary and medical benefits to injured workers. Despite the potential importance of medical care in improving the health and labor productivity of injured workers, little research has addressed the relationship between medical care provided through workers' compensation and post-injury labor outcomes. This paper exploits the 2003-2004 California workers' compensation reforms which reduced medical care spending for injured workers with a disproportionate effect on workers suffering low back injuries. We study the differential impact of this reduction in medical care generosity on post-injury outcomes, using administrative data which includes claim-level medical costs, pre- and post-injury labor earnings, and earnings information for matched (uninjured) workers at the same preinjury firm. Our focus on labor outcomes is motivated by the importance of understanding the relationship between health and labor productivity more broadly and by the policy interest in mechanisms to improve the labor outcomes of injured workers. Adjusting for injury severity and selection into workers' compensation, we find that workers with lower back injuries experienced a 7.3% greater decline in medical care after the reforms, and that this led to an 8.3% reduction in post-injury earnings relative to other injured workers. We estimate that this earnings decline is due both to an increase in injury duration and to lower earnings conditional on working. |
| Keywords: | effectiveness of medical care, health, labor productivity, workers' compensation |
| JEL: | I12 I13 J24 J28 J38 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1028-1&r=ger |
| By: | Tuncer Bulutay (Turkish Economic Association); Deniz Karaoğlan (Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey (Visiting Scholar)) |
| Abstract: | This study provides causal effect of education on health behaviors in Turkey which is a middle income developing country. Health Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 are used. The health behaviors considered are smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercising and one health outcome namely, the body mass index (BMI). We examine the causal effect of education on these health behaviors and the BMI Instrumental variable approach is used in order to address the endogeneity of education to health behaviors. Educational expansion of the early 1960s is used as the source of exogenous variation in years of schooling. Our main findings are as follows. Education does not significantly affect the probability of smoking or exercising. The higher the education level the higher the probability of alcohol consumption and the probability of fruit and vegetable consumption. Higher levels of education lead to higher BMI levels. This study provides a baseline for further research on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2016/2&r=ger |
| By: | Rajesh Ramachandran; Christopher Rauh; Anh Mai Le |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse which channels influence individual preferences concerning the choice of the official language in Zambia. We develop a theoretical framework, which is tested using data on elicited beliefs about the effects of changes in Zambia's language policy on schooling outcomes, income, and social cohesion. In general, support for the use of local languages in education and government administration is low. We find that the perceived ease of learning in a local language compared to English, and economic expectations in terms of effects on income are important determinants of the preference for the use of a local language as official language. Individuals in fear of discrimination or disadvantages arising from the use of indigenous language are less likely to prefer these as official languages. However, while we do not find a systematic bias caused by the (lack of ) information about other countries' language policies, we do find that general knowledge of language policies is remarkably low. Our reading of the evidence is that individuals conflate knowledge with the medium of knowledge, and therefore prefer English as an official language despite its relative distance to their own language(s). |
| Keywords: | language policy, Zambia, discrimination, beliefs, education policy, minorities, fractionalization, local languages |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-078&r=ger |
| By: | Mitsuru Katagiri (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Many central banks implement forward guidance according to an implicit or explicit policy rule in practice, and thus it is expected to influence the economy by changing expectations formation of private agents. In this paper, I investigate the effects of forward guidance particularly via expectations formation by formulating forward guidance as a monetary policy rule in a non-linear new Keynesian model. A quantitative analysis using the U.S. and Japanese data implies that a rule-based forward guidance significantly mitigates a decline in inflation and output growth in a crisis period via changing expectations formation. |
| Keywords: | Forward Guidance; Expectations Formation; Effective Lower Bound; Particle Filter |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E42 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e06&r=ger |
| By: | Michele Battisti; Giovanni Peri; Agnese Romiti |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the size of co-ethnic networks at arrival affected the economic success of immigrants in Germany. Applying panel analysis with a large set of fixed effects and controls, we isolate the association between initial network size and long-run immigrant outcomes. Focusing on refugees – assigned to an initial location independently of their choice – allows a causal interpretation of the estimated coefficient. We find that immigrants initially located in places with larger co-ethnic networks are more likely to be employed at first, but have a lower probability of investing in human capital. In the long run they are more likely to be mis-matched in their job and to earn a lower wage. |
| JEL: | J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22389&r=ger |
| By: | Juan I Block; Drew Fudenberg; David K Levine |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000001375&r=ger |
| By: | Iwasaki, Ichiro; Maurel, Mathilde; Meunier, Bogdan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to empirically analyze the determinants of firm entry and exit in Russia using a regional-level panel data for the years of 2008-2014, with special emphasis on institutional failures and the politico-economic impact of external crises. We found that these two elements exhibit statistically significant and economically meaningful effects both on the creation and destruction of Russian firms, controlling for potentially explanatory factors. Our empirical results also suggest that the process of firm entry and exit is manifold across Russian regions due to their heterogeneity. Nevertheless, a surprisingly robust estimate of the world oil price (irrespective of the difference in target regions) suggests a possible high exposure of each Russian region to a global crisis. This comes from the importance of oil trade with the world and, accordingly, the ongoing crisis may bring a harmful influence to regeneration of Russian businesses. |
| Keywords: | firm entry, firm exit, institutions, economic integration, crisis, Russia |
| JEL: | D22 F15 G01 P31 P33 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:59&r=ger |
| By: | Nilo Luiz Saccaro Junior |
| Abstract: | Além de apresentar vantagens para empregadores e trabalhadores, o teletrabalho pode mostrar-se um fator de redução do número de viagens, o que contribuiria para a melhoria de muitas variáveis do tráfego urbano. Sob essa ótica, este estudo discute os efeitos urbanos do teletrabalho e apresenta uma estimativa para a redução do número de viagens decorrente de sua implementação pelo setor público no Brasil, além da estimativa de emissões de gás carbônico (CO2) evitadas por essa redução de viagens. Os resultados mostram que cada 10% do total de servidores brasileiros que passam para o teletrabalho representa redução de até 0,5% no número de viagens anuais realizadas em todo o país. A redução de emissões de gás cabônico decorrente dessas viagens evitadas seria cerca de 0,6% do total nacional emitido por automóveis e motos. Dessa forma, o incentivo ao teletrabalho pode ser interessante em políticas de gerenciamento de tráfego urbano no Brasil. In addition to advantages for companies and workers, teleworking could prove a factor on reducing the number of trips, which would contribute to the improvement of many variables of urban traffic. From this perspective, this paper presents an estimation for reducing the number of trips due to the implementation of telework in the Brazilian public sector, as well as estimation of carbon dioxide emissions avoided by this trip reduction. According to them, every 10% of Brazilian government employees that adopt teleworking can result in reduction of up to 0.5% in the annual number of trips made nationwide. The decrease in carbon dioxide emissions resulting from these avoided trips would be about 0.6% of the national total emitted by cars and motorbikes. Thus, encouraging telecommuting may be interesting to urban traffic management policies in Brazil. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2207&r=ger |
| By: | Pierre Madec (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | Des situations les plus extrêmes toucha nt les publics les plus fragiles (sans abrisme, exclusion sociale, ...) à celles les plus répandues que sont la sur- occupation des logements, les dépenses en logement trop élevées ou encore les difficultés de chauffage, les situations de mal-logement sont multiples et variées. De fait, la qualification et la quantification de l’impact de ces situations sont complexes, d’autant plus que les données statistiques à la disposition du monde scientifique ne permettent pa s d’analyser aisément l’ensemble des formes prises par le mal-logement. Une fois recensé l’ensemble des coûts résultant de l’existence de situations de mal-logement, pour la plupart inscrites au titre du programme 177 des lois de finances, mais dont cet article propose d’élargir le dessin, nous te ntons de quantifier l’impa ct des situations de mal- logement sur l’éducation, l’insertion dans l’emploi et la santé. Les résultats montrent l’importance de l’environnement du foyer sur l’en semble des champs d’étude retenus. En effet, les liens st atistiques mis en évidence à travers notamment l’analyse économétrique employée concluent à un impact significatif des principales conditions de logement tant sur la réussite scolaire des élèves que sur la probabilité de retr ouver un emploi ou celle de se déclarer en mauvaise santé. La quantification, monétaire ou non, de ces impacts négatifs des conditions de logement, bi en que fragile compte tenu des données et de la méthode employée, permet d’apporter un éclairage nouveau sur les conséquences que peuvent avoir les conditions de logement sur les conditions de vie des ménages pris dans leur inté gralité et ce à court mais également à moyen/long terme. |
| Keywords: | Logment; Inegalités; Logis; Evaluation; Mal Logement |
| JEL: | R2 D63 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/piukjrbpr81cp4krk5vdngs5s&r=ger |
| By: | Daniel Marszalec (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | I evaluate the performance of four static sealed-bid package auctions in an experimental setting with complementarities. The valuation model comprises two items, and three bidders: two `local bidders demand one item only, while the third (global) bidder only wants both. The rules I compare include the Vickrey and first-price auctions, Vickrey Nearest Rule and the Reference Rule. Auction-level tests find the first-price auction revenue dominant overall, while the Vickrey auction performs worst; the other two rules rank intermediate. Bidder-level tests of the experimental data reject the competitive equilibrium bidding functions: overbidding is widespread in all four auctions, and bidders are averse to submitting boundary bids. I also observe behaviour consistent with collusive bidding in the Vickrey auction. Contrary to theoretical predictions, the Vickrey auction performs worst on efficiency, primarily for this reason. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2016cf1018&r=ger |
| By: | Maria Lusiani (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Fabrizio Panozzo (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | This paper intends to critically explore the discourses and practices of regeneration of industrial heritage, examining how and to what extent a variety of notions of industrial heritage have been brought to bear on the plans and the practices enacted in the re-definition of the use of industrial sites. The general context is the one of the move from the industrial to the post-industrial society, entailing a growing abandonment of industrial areas and a parallel increasing awareness of the value of these sites, as testimony of some past material and immaterial culture and as spaces with potential for new forms of contemporary production. The paper thus reconstruct a typology of the main discourses and practices relating to industrial heritage re-uses, and concludes discussing the place of culture in these discourses and practices, the implications of the dominant discourses and practices, together with the need to move onto another view of the place and the shape of culture in and around industrial heritage sites. |
| Keywords: | industrial heritage, regeneration, heritage management |
| JEL: | M1 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:113&r=ger |
| By: | Prieur, Fabien; Schumacher, Ingmar |
| Abstract: | In this article we investigate the role that internal and external conflict plays for optimal climate and immigration policy. Reviewing the empirical literature, we put forward five theses regarding the link between climate change, migration, and conflict. Based on these theses, we then develop a theoretical model in which we take the perspective of the North who unilaterally chooses the number of immigrants from a pool of potential migrants that is endogenously determined by the extent of climate change. Accepting these migrants allows increases in local production which not only increases climate change but also gives rise to internal conflicts. In addition, those potential migrants that want to move due to climate change but that are not allowed to immigrate may induce external conflict. While we show that the external and internal conflict play a significant yet decisively different role, it is the co-existence of both conflicts that makes policy making difficult. Considering only one conflict induces significant immigration but no mitigation. Allowing for both types of conflict, then depending on parameters, either a steady state without immigration but with mitigation will be optimal, or a steady state with a larger number of immigrants but less mitigation. Furthermore, we find the possibility of Skiba points, signaling that optimal policy depends on initial conditions, too. During transition we examine the substitutability and complementarity between the mitigation and immigration policy. |
| Keywords: | climate change, immigration, conflict, mitigation. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30519&r=ger |
| By: | Gilbert, Thomas; Scotti, Chiara; Strasser, Georg; Vega, Clara |
| Abstract: | The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements: Some announcements have a strong impact on asset prices and others do not. In order to explain these differences, we estimate a novel measure of the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic announcement, which we define as the announcement's ability to nowcast GDP growth, inflation, and the Federal Funds Target Rate. Using the same nowcasting framework, we then decompose this intrinsic value into the announcement's characteristics: its relation to fundamentals, timing, and revision noise. We find that in the 1998–2013 period, a significant fraction of the variation in the announcements' price impact on the Treasury bond futures market can be explained by differences in intrinsic value. Furthermore, our novel measure of timing explains significantly more of this variation than the announcements' relation to fundamentals, reporting lag (which previous studies have used as a measure of timing), or revision noise. JEL Classification: G14, E44 |
| Keywords: | coordination role of public information, learning, macroeconomic announcements, macroeconomic forecasting, price discovery |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161882&r=ger |
| By: | Yannis Dafermos (University of the West of England); Maria Nikolaidi; Giorgos Galanis |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model that combines the stock-flow consistent approach of Godley and Lavoie with the flow-fund model of Georgescu-Roegen. The model has the following key features. First, monetary and physical stocks and flows are explicitly formalised taking into account the accounting principles and the laws of thermodynamics. Second, Georgescu-Roegen’s distinction between stock-flow and fund-service resources is adopted. Third, output is demand-determined but supply constraints might arise either due to environmental damages or due to the exhaustion of natural resources. Fourth, climate change influences directly the components of aggregate demand. Fifth, finance affects macroeconomic activity and the materialisation of investment plans that determine ecological efficiency. The model is calibrated using global data. Simulations are conducted to investigate the trajectories of key environmental, macroeconomic and financial variables under (i) different assumptions about the sensitivity of economic activity to the leverage ratio of firms and (ii) different types of green finance policies. |
| Keywords: | ecological macroeconomics, stock-flow consistent modelling, laws of thermodynamics, climate change, finance |
| JEL: | E12 E44 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1612&r=ger |
| By: | Bar-Ilan, Avner (Department of Economics, University of Haifa); Gliksberg, Baruch (Department of Economics, University of Haifa) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the scal-monetary response to a sharp increase in the level of the public debt. To that end, we employ a general equilibrium model with distortionary income tax, distortionary nancing, and endogenous capital accumulation. The model is calibrated to the US and EU economies. A main result is that in both economies the QE is superior, welfare-wise, to other policy prescriptions to the problem of explosive debt. A major di¤erence between the EU and the US is that a Taylor rule of tight monetary and scal policy could reduce the US public debt, but given the fundamental properties of the EU economy, this policy cannot achieve this goal in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Distorting Taxes; Fiscal Solvency; La¤er curve in a monetary economy; Liquidity ; Rate of self nancing of tax cuts; Quantitative Easing |
| JEL: | E44 E47 E58 E63 H30 H63 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:haf:huedwp:wp201601&r=ger |
| By: | Costa-Font, J.; Jofre-Bonet, M. |
| Abstract: | Parental influences on children health related behaviours are argued to be gender assortative (e.g., that maternal behaviour is more important for daughters), but research devoted to disentangling such effects is still at its infancy. We take advantage of a unique dataset (Health Survey for England) containing records of clinically measured weight and height for a representative sample of English children and their parents for the period 1996-2009. We examine the magnitude and change of the association between maternal and paternal overweight and that of their offspring by gender, alongside the combined parental effect. We aim at identifying the existence and the magnitude of a gender-assortative transmission of overweight after controlling for a long list of covariates, including time and survey-wave fixed effects. Our findings point out that the intergenerational transmission is most significant when both parents are obese or overweight, and the effects size increases with child age 0.7 percentage point among infants to 1.3-1.4 percentage points among schooled children and teenagers. However, we find weak evidence of a specific maternal effect on girls’ overweight, and more generally gender assortative intergenerational transmission of overweight and obesity. |
| Keywords: | Gender Assortative Parental Transmission; child obesity; child overweight; role models; inter-generational transmission; |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:16/08&r=ger |
| By: | Gang, Ira N. (Rutgers University); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, Regensburg); Landon-Lane, John (Rutgers University); Yun, Myeong-Su (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the "recession transition" almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the "recovery period". Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan. |
| Keywords: | mobility measurement, vulnerability, poverty, inequality, measurement, Tajikistan |
| JEL: | J60 D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10049&r=ger |
| By: | Ana Fontoura Gouveia (Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais / Office for Economic Policy and International Affairs - Ministério das Finanças / Ministry of Finance); Filipa Canas |
| Abstract: | Portugal implemented a large number of structural reforms in the recent years, which are expected to enhance the allocation of resources in the economy, namely from the non-tradable to the tradable sector. We argue that the methodology to identify the tradable sector used by some international institutions is outdated and may hamper an accurate assessment of the structural progress achieved so far. Based on an enhanced methodology to identify the tradable sector of the economy, we provide more solid ground for future assessments of structural economic developments. By looking at some standard economic indicators, we show that our new criterion provides a different picture of the resource allocation in the Portuguese economy and of the adjustment of the recent years as compared to the one provided by commonly used criteria. |
| Keywords: | Allocative Efficiency, Trade, Microeconomic Policy |
| JEL: | D61 F14 E D04 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0060&r=ger |
| By: | Madalina Cristina TOCAN (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Oana CHINDRIS-VASIOIU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | The economy, in different historical stages and development in any part of the Terra planet, develops and grows between two coordinates, namely: production and consumption. Their relationship is interdependence, reciprocity. This relationship production-consumption which means savings in relation to the environment (initially natural environment) has two aspects: the environment is the economy support and a supplier of raw materials - support is established by the necessary energy production process for finished products and their distribution, waste results; Environmental structure at one time is changed by technological production processes actually determining ecological imbalances. The present paper tries to present the core concepts regarding green economy, the eco- economic decisions, environmental management system and the present situation of the environmental management within the Romanian companies. |
| Keywords: | green economy, eco-economic decisions, Environmental Management System, Sustainable Development |
| JEL: | O44 Q57 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wp2015:2015-11&r=ger |
| By: | Neute, Nadine; Budzinski, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Following the FCC Notice of proposed Rulemaking and the request for public comments a lively debate on how to protect the open Internet ensued and has now been closed by the approval of strong net neutrality rules by the FCC. This paper discusses the economic merit of alternative forms of regulation and points out implications of the current rules for further proceedings. We particularly highlight the parallels between the European and the American legal contexts and discuss un-der which circumstances prioritization influences the likelihood of market failure. From the (non)available empirical evidence on attempts to foreclose downstream markets and from the fact that interference with the freedom of opinion has been dealt with swiftly we conclude that the former legal framework was sufficient to deal with those concerns, while the new framework has severe drawbacks. Although a binding formalization of prioritization rules is necessary to reduce uncertainty and to close a debate which has been going on now since 2003 it will not pacify the ongoing debate, as H.R.2666 - No Rate Regulation of Broadband Internet Access Act has passed the House of Representatives and might counteract the FCCs net neutrality priciples. |
| Keywords: | Netzneutralität,Internetökonomie,Medienökonomik,Wettbewerb |
| JEL: | L86 L82 L40 K21 D80 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:100&r=ger |
| By: | Tzavidis, Nikos; Zhang, Li-Chun; Luna Hernandez, Angela; Schmid, Timo; Rojas-Perilla, Natalia |
| Abstract: | Small area estimation is a research area in official and survey statistics of great practical relevance for National Statistical Institutes and related organisations. Despite rapid developments in methodology and software, researchers and users would benefit from having practical guidelines that assist the process of small area estimation. In this paper we propose a general framework for the production of small area statistics that is based on three broadly defined stages namely, Specification, Analysis/Adaptation and Evaluation. The corner stone of the proposed framework is the principle of parsimony. Emphasis is given on the interaction between a user and a methodologist for specifying the target geography and parameters in light of the available data. Model-free and model-dependent methods are described with focus on model selection and testing, model diagnostics and adaptations e.g. use of data transformations. The use of uncertainty measures and model and design-based simulations for method evaluation are also at the centre of the paper. We illustrate each stage of the process both theoretically and by using real data for estimating a simple and complex (non-linear) indicators. |
| Keywords: | census,design-based methods,diagnostics,inequality,model-based methods |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201613&r=ger |
| By: | Benjamin Jourdain; Alexandre Zhou |
| Abstract: | By Gyongy's theorem, a local and stochastic volatility model is calibrated to the market prices of all call options with positive maturities and strikes if its local volatility function is equal to the ratio of the Dupire local volatility function over the root conditional mean square of the stochastic volatility factor given the spot value. This leads to a SDE nonlinear in the sense of McKean. Particle methods based on a kernel approximation of the conditional expectation, as presented by Guyon and Henry-Labord\`ere (2011), provide an efficient calibration procedure even if some calibration errors may appear when the range of the stochastic volatility factor is very large. But so far, no existence result is available for the SDE nonlinear in the sense of McKean. In the particular case where the local volatility function is equal to the inverse of the root conditional mean square of the stochastic volatility factor multiplied by the spot value given this value and the interest rate is zero, the solution to the SDE is a fake Brownian motion. When the stochastic volatility factor is a constant (over time) random variable taking finitely many values and the range of its square is not too large, we prove existence to the associated Fokker-Planck equation. Thanks to Figalli (2008), we then deduce existence of a new class of fake Brownian motions. We then extend these results to the special case of the LSV model called Regime Switching Local Volatility, where the stochastic volatility factor is a jump process taking finitely many values and with jump intensities depending on the spot level. Under the same condition on the range of its square, we prove existence to the associated Fokker-Planck PDE. We then deduce existence of the calibrated model by extending the results in Figalli (2008). |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00077&r=ger |
| By: | Líbera, María Eugenia; Rech, Lautaro; Fratuzzo, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | En el año 2010, respondiendo a una serie de demandas y necesidades del entorno, se crea desde la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata la Oficina de Apoyo al Emprendedor. Teniendo como objetivo principal de la misma la promoción y el desarrollo de acciones tendientes a fomentar el desarrollo de una cultura emprendedora local. Se tomaron como principales líneas de trabajo la pre-incubación, a partir de un ciclo en el cual se busca validar la oportunidad de negocio, y la incubación, con acciones tendientes a solucionar problemáticas específicas que suscite el emprendimiento. Desde la conformación de la Oficina se han capacitado más de 500 emprendedores locales y se ha sistematizado la metodología de trabajo. |
| Keywords: | Emprendedorismo; Incubación de Empresas; |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2492&r=ger |
| By: | Bobba, Matteo; Gignoux, Jérémie |
| Abstract: | When potential beneficiaries share knowledge and attitudes about a policy intervention, that can influence their decisions to participate and, in turn, change the effectiveness of both the policy and its evaluation. This matters notably in integrated social policies with several components. We examine spillover effects on the take-up of the schooling subsidy component of the Progresa-Oportunidades program in rural Mexico by exploiting exogenous variations in the local frequency of beneficiaries generated by the program's randomized evaluation. Higher treatment frequency in the areas surrounding the evaluation villages increases the take-up of scholarships and enrollment at the junior-secondary level. These cross-village effects exclusively operate on households receiving another component of the program, and do not carry over larger distances. While several tests reject heterogeneities in impacts due to spatial variations in program implementation, we find suggestive evidence that spillovers stem partly from the sharing of information about the program among eligible households. |
| Keywords: | spatial externalities; knowledge spillovers; peer effects; take-up of social policies; policy evaluation; conditional cash transfers. |
| JEL: | I2 J2 O2 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30496&r=ger |
| By: | Oana CHINDRIS-VASIOIU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | The concept of sustainable development starts from the premise that the human civilization is a subsystem of the Ecosphere, dependent on raw material and energy flows within it and the capacity for self-regulation, and maintaining the Ecosphere of stability. At the same time the concept believes that human civilization in turn has a significant impact on the ecosphere. In the early 1970s, the Club of Rome published a report entitled "limits of growth", in which it claimed that Terra has a limited capacity to meet the increasing demand for natural resources to socio-economic system and to alleviate the destructive effects of the use of these resources. This paper tries to define sustainable development in economic terms taking into account the historical evolution of the concept and, at the same time, to highlight its importance in the context of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | sustainable development, economic indicators, economic growth, the European Union |
| JEL: | Q41 Q51 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wp2015:2015-01&r=ger |
| By: | Yves-André FAURE |
| Abstract: | In the field of the fight against the HIV / AIDS substantial resources have been used regularly both in all of Brazil to Fortaleza. All these means affected populations more numerous and demographic cohorts constantly renewed and sexually active. One would therefore expect that all of these initiatives have had the effect of making effective incentives for voluntary practice test. However quantitative and qualitative researches shows that if the number of tests performed has steadily increased over time, they raise the reluctance persists continuously as in the general population as well as than in the social categories considered vulnerable because most exposed than others to the risk of being affected by HIV / AIDS.The question suggested by this situation is to try to identify and characterize the factors that make intelligible the persistence of resistance to the voluntary practice test or, equivalently, to understand the limitations of the effectiveness of incentives to take the test. We question here especially the world of local institutions, public ones and those within the third sector, involved in the fight against HIV / AIDS. This institutional landscape, despite or because of its thickness and its complexity, presents a number of shortcomings, limitations, dysfunctions that tend to weaken the expected efficacy of the structures, reduce the universalizing objective of test campaigns, hinders the understanding of the information generated around this struggle by the people.\r\n\r\nThe survey results suggest that, in a context of individual and collective factors, maintaining these complex relationships, the local institutional apparatus, despite efforts to raise the level of participation in HIV testing, contributes to a climate of uncertainty and lack of knowledge about the existence and importance of the test. The overall incentive system in practice has not achieved the desired effectiveness. And the persistence of vulnerabilities and the survival of reluctance and resistance to HIV meet involuntary allies in the actual functioning of local institutions. |
| Keywords: | HIV / AIDS, resistance to HIV / AIDS tests, vulnerable groups, Brazil, Fortaleza, local public institutions, local civil organizations. |
| JEL: | D64 D73 H51 H75 I18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2016-15&r=ger |
| By: | Kevin M. Morrison (University of Pittsburgh); Marc Rockmore (Clark University, Worcester) |
| Abstract: | Research finds that personal exposure to violence or crime increases political participation. The effects of fear, however, have not been studied. Since the number of victims is much smaller than those who are afraid of becoming a victim, this suggests an important but unexplored channel from crime to political participation. Moreover, if people who experience violence or crime are also afraid of future exposure, existing estimates conflate the effects of past experience with those of fear of future exposure. We find that fear of crime accounts for 10-23 percent of the effect previously attributed to direct exposure. We further find important differences between the effects of fear and victimization on political attitudes. Whereas victims of crimes have more authoritarian political attitudes, people who are fearful of crime are more supportive of democracy and equality, and hold other attitudes that are normally associated with rule of law and democracy. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:226&r=ger |
| By: | Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza; Kalantzis, Yannick |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the implications of a persistent liquidity trap in a monetary model with asset scarcity and price flexibility. We show that a liquidity trap leads to an increase in cash holdings and may be associated with a long-term output decline. This long-term impact is a supply-side effect that may arise when agents are heterogeneous. It occurs in particular with a persistent deleveraging shock, leading investors to hold cash yielding a low return. Policy implications differ from shorter-run analyses. Quantitative easing leads to a deeper liquidity trap. Exiting the trap by increasing expected inflation or applying negative interest rates does not solve the asset scarcity problem. |
| Keywords: | Asset scarcity; Deleveraging; liquidity trap; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E22 E40 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11369&r=ger |
| By: | Robert M. Feinberg; Kara M. Reynolds |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies have found that countries may respond strategically to the antidumping petitions filed against their exporters through their own retaliatory actions. Although most previous studies have focused on retaliatory antidumping filings, in this paper we explore another potential avenue for strategic response—filing a complaint under the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Dispute Settlement Understanding. Using a panel of global antidumping filings between 1995 and 2011, we analyze under what conditions countries will choose to retaliate through either an antidumping petition or a WTO dispute, and to what degree these two strategies are complementary or act as substitutes. We find statistical evidence that countries are more likely to file a WTO dispute when they have also filed retaliatory antidumping petition, suggesting that these two strategies may be complementary. JEL classification: F13 |
| Keywords: | WTO Dispute Settlement, Antidumping |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2016-04&r=ger |
| By: | Michal Bauer (CERGE-EI and Charles University); Christopher Blattman (Columbia University, New York City and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts); Julie Chytilová (CERGE-EI and Charles University); Joseph Henrich (Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts and CIFAR, Toronto, Ontario, Canada); Edward Miguel (University of California, Berkeley, California, and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts); Tamar Mitts (Columbia University, New York City, New York) |
| Abstract: | In the past decade, nearly 20 studies have found a strong, persistent pattern in surveys and behavioral experiments from over 40 countries: individual exposure to war violence tends to increase social cooperation at the local level, including community participation and prosocial behavior. Thus while war has many negative legacies for individuals and societies, it appears to leave a positive legacy in terms of local cooperation and civic engagement. We discuss, synthesize and reanalyze the emerging body of evidence, and weigh alternative explanations. There is some indication that war violence especially enhances in-group or “parochial” norms and preferences, a finding that, if true, suggests that the rising social cohesion we document need not promote broader peace. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:224&r=ger |
| By: | De Agostini, Paola; Paulus, Alari; Tasseva, Iva Valentinova |
| Abstract: | We apply microsimulation techniques to estimate the first-order effects of tax-benefit policy changes since the beggining of the financial and economic crisis in 2008. Using the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD in combination with the EU-SILC 2012 micro-data, we provide comparative estimates for EU-27 in 2008-2014 as well as for 21 EU member states in 2014-2015. The analysis covers direct tax and cash benefit changes and evaluates their effects on the income distribution, poverty and inequality levels, holding population characteristics and market incomes constant, thereby, isolating direct policy effects from other factors shaping the income distribution. Two different indexation approaches are used to adjust benchmark policies over time – prices and market incomes – and explore the sensitivity of results. We find substantial cross-national variation throughout the whole period. At the EU level, policy changes in the first half of the period (2008-2011) were poverty-reducing and had a positive effect on mean incomes, while the effects were the opposite in the later period (2011-2014); and inequality-reducing in both periods. |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em6-16&r=ger |
| By: | Marc CHESNEY; Pierre LASSERRE; Bruno TROJA |
| Abstract: | Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing CO2 emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct costs on a country’s Gross Domestic Product, but costs also arise from temperature increases due to inaction. This paper introduces a tipping point in a real options model and analyzes optimal investment choices in mitigation and their timing. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, mitigation, real options, delay, tipping point, climate change, CO2, gross domestic product |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtl:montec:08-2016&r=ger |
| By: | Alicia Blum-Ross; Sonia Livingstone |
| JEL: | L91 L96 |
| Date: | 2016–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67045&r=ger |
| By: | Yuan Liao (Rutgers University); Anna Simoni (CREST) |
| Abstract: | Inference on partially identified models plays an important role in econometrics. This paper proposes novel Bayesian procedures for these models when the identified set is closed and convex and so is completely characterized by its support function. We shed new light on the connection between Bayesian and frequentist inference for partially identified convex models. We construct Bayesian credible sets for the identified set and uniform credible bands for the support function, as well as a Bayesian procedure for marginal inference, where we may be interested in just one component of the partially identified parameter. Importantly, our procedure is shown to be an asymptotically valid frequentist procedure as well. It is computationally efficient, and we describe several algorithms to implement it. We also construct confidence sets for the partially identified parameter by using the posterior distribution of the support function and show that they have correct frequentist coverage asymptotically. In addition, we establish a local linear approximation of the support function which facilitates set inference and numerical implementation of our method, and allows us to establish the Bernstein-von Mises theorem of the posterior distribution of the support function. |
| Keywords: | partial identication, Bayesian credible sets, support function, moment inequality models, Bernstein-von Mises theorem |
| JEL: | C11 |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rut:rutres:201607&r=ger |
| By: | Faure, Salomon; Gersbach, Hans |
| Abstract: | We develop a general equilibrium model to study money creation by private banks and examine the impact of monetary policy and capital regulation. There are two production sectors, financial intermediation, aggregate shocks, safe deposits, and two types of money creation: private deposits when banks grant loans to firms or to other banks and central bank money when the central bank grants loans to private banks. We show that in the baseline model, equilibria yield the first-best level of money creation and lending, regardless of the monetary policy or capital regulation. If we add price rigidities coupled with the zero lower bound, there may be no equilibrium with banks, but under normal economic conditions, an adequate combination of monetary policy and capital regulation can restore the existence of equilibria and efficiency. Finally, we show that Forward Guidance and capital regulation can only avoid a slump in money creation and lending if economic conditions are sufficiently favorable. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11368&r=ger |
| By: | Chen, Xi (Yale University); Wang, Tianyu (Beijing Academy of Social Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of receiving pension benefits on mental well-being using China's New Rural Pension Scheme launched in 2010, the largest pension program in the world. More than four hundred million Chinese have enrolled in the program, and the program on average amounts to one fifth of pensioners' earned income. We find a salient increase in pension benefits and poverty alleviation around the pension eligibility age cut-off. Employing an instrumental variable approach to a national sample of the China Family Panel Studies, our empirical strategy overcomes the endogeneity of pension receipt that prevents us from identifying the causal effect of income change on mental health as measured by the full version of CES-D and depressive symptoms. Results reveal a sizeable reduction in depression susceptibility due to pension income. The improvement in mental health is larger for vulnerable populations with financial and health constraints. We further discuss potential pathways through which pension may affect mental health. |
| Keywords: | pension income, depression, mental health, older populations |
| JEL: | H55 I18 I38 J14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10037&r=ger |
| By: | Metaxas, Theodore; Folinas, Sotiris |
| Abstract: | This article aims to explore and document the relationship between forms of alternative tourism and economic development. More specifically, the subject of our investigation will be whether a small national economy is able to rely wholly or largely on tourist flows as a source of income and even to invest in a single type of tourism. Alternative forms of tourism, gaming tourism as well as the features of territorially limited countries and how they are linked to the case of Macau will also be objects of study and annotation. With the process of text production through scientific articles, statistical data and reliable data bases, we will attempt to 'cover' the investigated relationship as well as the stemming questions. |
| Keywords: | tourism, gaming tourism, development, growth, small countries |
| JEL: | O1 O18 O21 R58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72397&r=ger |
| By: | Franck Portier (Toulouse School of Economics); Dana Galizia (University of British Columbia); Paul Beaudry (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | There is a long tradition in macroeconomics suggesting that market imperfections may explain why economies repeatedly go through periods of booms and busts. This idea can be captured mathematically as a limit cycle. In this paper we present both a general structure and a particular model with the aim of giving new life to this mostly dismissed view of fluctuations. We begin by showing why and when models with strategic complementarities can give rise to unique-equilibrium dynamics characterized by a limit cycle. We then develop a fully-specified dynamic general equilibrium model that embeds a demand complementarity that allows for a limit cycle. Booms and busts arise endogenously in our setting because agents want to concentrate their purchases of goods at times when purchases by others are high, since in such situations unemployment is low and therefore taking on debt is perceived as being less risky. A key feature of our approach is that we allow limit-cycle forces to compete with exogenous disturbances in explaining the data. Our estimation results indicate that US business cycle fluctuations in employment and output can be well explained by endogenous demand-driven cycles buffeted by technological disturbances that render those fluctuations irregular. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:52&r=ger |
| By: | Zaghdoudi, Taha |
| Abstract: | One of the most important problem of misspecification in the probit model is the correlation between regressors and error term. To deal with this problem, some commercial software gives a solution such as Stata. For the famous R language the ivprobit gives the users the way to estimate the instrumental probit model. |
| Keywords: | Instrumental variables,probit model,generalized least squares estimator |
| JEL: | C25 C36 C87 |
| Date: | 2014–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72383&r=ger |
| By: | Filippo Ferroni (Banque de France); Christian Matthes (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Fabio Canova (EUI) |
| Abstract: | The paper studies how parameter variation affects the decision rules of a DSGE model and structural inference. We provide diagnostics to detect parameter variations and to ascertain whether they are exogenous or endogenous. Identification and inferential distortions when a constant parameter model is incorrectly assumed are examined. Likelihood and VAR-based estimates of the structural dynamics when parameter variations are neglected are compared. Time variations in the financial frictions of Gertler and Karadi's (2010) model are studied. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:46&r=ger |
| By: | Peter McDonald |
| Abstract: | Declining fertility and mortality rates in the second half of the twentieth century have led to the twenty-first century being characterised as the century of the aging population. Concurrently, the decline in the numbers of young people entering the labour force is exacerbating the problems arising from the aging population. Implications of these trends are analysed for a variety of Asian countries. Labour force growth in India and Pakistan will be sufficient to compensate for the shrinking labour forces in Europe and Asia excluding the massive fall in China; outsourcing labour to South Asia will be an increasing trend in the twenty-first century. The Asian countries with less problematic demographic structures are instead facing economic challenges and require education and training to improve labour productivity. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational, demography, labour, Asian century, economic policy |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201615&r=ger |
| By: | Sandra Rodriguez A. |
| Abstract: | Esta investigación busca analizar si el mercado de aseguramiento en salud en Colombia está concentrado, y si esa concentración influye en el acceso a servicios de salud. Para esto se estiman modelos de forma reducida, utilizando información de prestación de servicios de salud para 33 áreas de mercado en el periodo 2007-2011. Como principal resultado se verifica la existencia de mercados concentrados, y se encuentran evidencias de que estas aseguradoras ejercen también influencia sobre la producción de servicios hospitalarios. Todo ello conlleva a que el ejercicio del poder de mercado de las aseguradoras se convierte en potenciales limitantes del acceso a los servicios médicos. |
| Keywords: | concentración de mercado, acceso a servicios de salud |
| JEL: | D43 |
| Date: | 2015–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014779&r=ger |
| By: | Giovanna Andrea Cornia; Antonio Scognamillo |
| Abstract: | The conventional approach to least developed country (LDC) graduation has considered these countries as an undifferentiated group whose problems could be solved by means of similar measures focussing on domestic and international liberalisation, preferential aid allocations, and the promotion of their exports by means of trade preferences and free market access. This paper tries to go beyond this analytical and policy tradition and attempts to identify different LDC clusters in which underdevelopment is caused by specific economic and social conditions, and for which the solution depends not only on traditional support measures, but also on the implementation of differentiated, country-specific policies sensitive to the local context. |
| Keywords: | least developed countries, cluster analysis, productive capacity, graduation, country-specific policy measures |
| JEL: | F35 F55 O19 O57 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:033&r=ger |
| By: | Erdenebat Bataa; Denise R.Osborn; Marianne Sensier |
| Abstract: | In the light of China's increasing importance in the global economy, we investigate changes in the international spillovers of quarterly GDP growth rates since 1975 in a system consisting of the USA, Euro area and China. Utilizing an iterative procedure for detecting structural breaks in the VAR coefficients and covariance matrix, we find dynamics to be unchanged, but volatilities change in 1983, 1993 and 2007, with cross-country correlations markedly increasing around the time of the Great Recession. This recent period consequently shows increased international growth spillovers, measured through generalized impulse responses. Although largely isolated from the other large economies until 2007, growth in China is subsequently important for both the US and the Euro area. At the same time, the volatility of China's growth becomes more closely associated with these other large economies, especially the US in terms of net volatility spillovers. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:cgbcrp:221&r=ger |
| By: | López-Martín Bernabé |
| Abstract: | A quantitative framework of firm dynamics is developed where the size of the informal sector is determined by financial constraints and the burden of taxation. Improving access to credit for formal sector firms increases aggregate TFP and output while reducing the size of the informal sector. Introducing size-dependent taxes reduces the gains from financial development as they incentivize firms to produce at a relatively limited scale. The aggregate effects of eliminating formal sector registration costs are positive but modest relative to previous theoretical models and the gains generated by financial development, and consistent with empirical evidence based on micro-level data. |
| Keywords: | informal sector; misallocation; aggregate productivity; financial constraints; size-dependent taxes. |
| JEL: | E26 L11 O11 O17 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-09&r=ger |
| By: | Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Gomes, Diego B. P. |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the impact on the U.S. economy of making health care more affordable. We compare health care cost reductions with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) using a rich life cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, but the PPACA was the most effective: in the long run, less than 5% of Americans would remain uninsured. Cost reductions alleviated the government budget, while tax hikes were needed to finance the reform. Feasible cost reductions are less welfare improving than the PPACA. |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:780&r=ger |
| By: | Masahiko Egami; Rusudan Kevkhishvili |
| Abstract: | During subprime mortgage crisis, it became apparent that incumbent models had underestimated company default correlations. Complex models that attempt to incorporate default dependency are difficult to implement in practice. On the contrary, practical models, such as One-Factor Gaussian Copula model, greatly underestimated simultaneous default probabilities. In this article, we develop a model for a company asset process and based on this model, we calculate simultaneous default probabilities using option-theoretic approach. Our model focuses on one industry and includes a shot noise process in the asset model directly. The risk factor driving the shot noise process is common to all companies in the industry but the shot noise parameters are assumed to be company-specific; therefore, every company responds to this common risk factor differently. Apart from the shot noise process, the asset model includes company specific Brownian motion. Compared to commonly used geometric Brownian motion asset model in option-theoretic approach, our model predicted higher simultaneous default probabilities for Citigroup Inc. in 2008, and for all company combinations for the years of 2009 and 2010. Our model is easy to implement and can be extended to analyze any finite number of companies without greatly increasing computational difficulty. |
| Keywords: | shot noise; option-theoretic approach; asset process; simultaneous default probabilities |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-16-001&r=ger |
| By: | Kevin Lang; Russell Weinstein |
| Abstract: | We show that in labor market models with adverse selection, otherwise observationally equivalent workers will experience less wage growth following a period in which they change jobs than following a period in which they do not. We find little or no evidence to support this prediction. In most specifications the coefficient has the opposite sign, sometimes statistically significantly so. When consistent with the prediction, the estimated effects are small and statistically insignificant. We consistently reject large effects in the predicted direction. We argue informally that our results are also problematic for a broader class of models of competitive labor markets. |
| JEL: | J3 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22387&r=ger |
| By: | Michele Di Maio (Department of Business and Economic Studies, University of Naples Parthenope (Italy) and HiCN); Giorgio Fabbri (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS); Vincenzo Lombardo (Department of Business and Economic Studies, University of Naples Parthenope) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a theoretical model exploring the effects of industrial policy (IP) when entrepreneurs are characterized by different ability levels and sectors are heterogeneous as for their profitability and social externalities generated. The optimal structure of IP in terms of monetary transfers is shown to crucially depend on the distribution of entrepreneurs abilities. Moreover, we find that IP increases aggregate welfare under very general conditions, also in the presence of Government failures. In an extension of the model, we consider the case in which the Government can use also the provision of business training to entrepreneurs as an additional instrument of IP. Based on these results, policy implication for industrial policy in developing countries are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurs; Heterogeneous Abilities; Training. |
| JEL: | O25 O15 O14 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1622&r=ger |
| By: | Cerqueiro, Geraldo; Ongena, Steven; Roszbach, Kasper |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the economy-wide effects of the collateral channel by exploiting: (i) a legal reform in Sweden in 2004 that reduced collateral values, and (ii) a dataset that covers all incorporated firms in Sweden over the period 2000-2006. We find that the loss in collateral value reduces both the amount and the maturity of firm debt and leads firms to contract investment, employment, and assets. The legal reform may distort investment and asset allocation decisions, as firms that reduce their holdings of assets with low collaterizable value and firms that hold more liquid assets consequently become less productive and innovative. Our results therefore document the potency of a collateral channel outside of a crisis. JEL Classification: D22, G31, G32 |
| Keywords: | collateral, differences-in-differences, financial constraints, floating lien, investment |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161918&r=ger |
| By: | Michalopoulos, Stelios; Putterman, Louis; Weil, David |
| Abstract: | Does a person's historical lineage influence his or her current economic status? Motivated by a large literature in social sciences stressing the effect of an early transition to agriculture on current economic performance at the level of countries, we examine the relative contemporary status of individuals as a function of how much their ancestors relied on agriculture during the pre-industrial era. We focus on Africa, where by combining anthropological records of groups with individual-level survey data we can explore the effect of the historical lifeways of one's forefathers. Within enumeration areas and occupational groups, we find that individuals from ethnicities that derived a larger share of subsistence from agriculture in the pre-colonial era are today more educated and wealthy. A tentative exploration of channels suggests that differences in attitudes and beliefs as well as differential treatment by others, including differential political power, may contribute to these divergent outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Africa; agriculture; Culture; Development; Ethnicity |
| JEL: | J6 N37 O15 Z1 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11366&r=ger |
| By: | Castillo Murciego, Ángela; López Laborda, Julio |
| Abstract: | In this paper the authors analyze the existence of profit shifting by companies located in Spain. Using a sample of 1,380 Spanish subsidiaries owned by foreign OECD and EU parent companies from the AMADEUS Database for the period 2005-2014 and a simple tax rate difference as a measure of the profit shifting tax incentive, the authors obtain a negative effect of corporate income taxes on reported profits, which is consistent with the profit shifting activity of corporations and matches the empirical results in the literature. Furthermore, they derive a negative effect from this profit shifting activity in terms of tax revenues for Spain. |
| Keywords: | profit shifting,multinational corporations,tax revenues,Spain |
| JEL: | F23 F69 H25 H26 H32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201628&r=ger |
| By: | Barnichon, Régis; Matthes, Christian |
| Abstract: | Despite intense scrutiny, estimates of the government spending multiplier remain highly uncertain, with values ranging from 0.5 to 2. While an increase in government spending is generally assumed to have the same (mirror-image) effect as a decrease in government spending, we show that relaxing this assumption is important to understand the effects of fiscal policy. Regardless of whether we identify government spending shocks from (i) a narrative approach, or (ii) a timing restriction, we find that the contractionary multiplier --the multiplier associated with a negative shock to government spending-- is above 1, while the expansionary multiplier --the multiplier associated with a positive shock-- is substantially below 1. The multiplier is largest in recessions, as found in previous studies, but only because the contractionary multiplier is largest in recessions. The expansionary multiplier is always below 1 and not larger in recessions. We argue that our results help understand the wide range of multiplier estimates found in the literature. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11373&r=ger |
| By: | Benavides Guillermo |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to analyze what are the main determinants of the exchange rate risk premium (ERP). The empirical case is conducted for the daily Mexican peso-USD exchange rate for a sample period from 2007 until 2015. According to the results the ERP is influenced by several financial variables which are the VIX, a carry trade index, the EMBI and the forward premium obtained from derivatives' transaction orders. These results are in line with previous results in the literature that have proven that exchange rate premiums are influenced by several financial variables, which are usually considered as 'proxies' of risk. |
| Keywords: | Mexican peso-USD Exchange Rate;Risk-Neutral Densities;Risk premiums |
| JEL: | C22 C53 C58 G10 G13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-11&r=ger |
| By: | Masatoshi Kato (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This study explores internal research and development (R&D) and external knowledge acquisition of firms during the start-up period, using panel data from original questionnaire surveys conducted in Japan. In particular, the study highlights the role of entrepreneurial human capital in the adoption of internal R&D and external knowledge acquisition strategies (licensing-in and joint R&D). Based on estimates of a bivariate probit model, the analysis provides evidence that firms managed by entrepreneurs with a high level of human capital are more likely to engage both in internal R&D and external knowledge acquisition. More specifically, while generic human capital, such as educational attainment, plays a significant role in explaining internal R&D, specific human capital, such as prior work experience in a related field or innovation experience, tends to have a prominent in uence on external knowledge acquisition. As a supplementary analysis, the effectiveness of internal R&D and external knowledge acquisition strategies is assessed by examining the link with innovation outcomes (product innovations and patent applications). The results suggest that the two innovation strategies have positive effects on innovation outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Start-up, entrepreneur, internal R&D, external knowledge acquisition, generic human capital, specific human capital |
| JEL: | M13 L26 O32 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:145&r=ger |
| By: | Emmerling, Johannes; Drouet, Laurent Drouet; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Bevione, Michela; Berger, Loic; Bosetti, Valentina; Carrara, Samuel; De Cian, Enrica; De Maere D'Aertrycke, Gauthier; Longden, Tom; Malpede, Maurizio; Marangoni, Giacomo; Sferra, Fabio; Tavoni, Massimo; Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan; Havlik, Petr |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different “worlds" of the SSP. |
| Keywords: | Integrated Assessment Model, SSPs, Climate Change, Scenarios, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q54, C63, |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemmi:240748&r=ger |
| By: | Juan Rosellón (Division of Economics, CIDE); Eric Zenón (Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste, CCGSS) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses electricity transmission planning under the new industry and institutional structure of the Mexican electricity market, which has engaged in a deep reform process after decades of a state-owned vertically-integrated non-competitive closed industry. Under this new structure, characterized by a nodal pricing system and an independent system operator (ISO), we analyze welfare-optimal network expansion with two modeling strategies. In a first model, we propose the use of an incentive price-cap mechanism to promote the expansion of Mexico networks. In a second model, we study centrally-planned grid expansion in Mexico by an ISO within a power-flow model. We carry out comparisons of these models which provide us with hints to evaluate the actual transmission planning process proposed by Mexican authorities (Prodesen). We obtain: 1) the Prodesen plan appears to be a convergent welfare optimal planning process, and 2) incentive regulation in Mexico could further help to implement such an optical process. |
| Keywords: | Electricity market reform, vertical and horizontal disintegration, transmission planning, nodal prices, Mexico. |
| JEL: | L51 L91 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte598&r=ger |
| By: | Michelle Mills; Clare Barrington; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | Sharing of good, practical research practices and lessons learned from development and humanitarian contexts is in high demand not only within UNICEF, but also in the broader international development and humanitarian community, ‘Impact Evaluation in the Field’ complements other methodological briefs by discussing how textbook approaches are applied in often challenging, under-resourced development contexts as well as the innovative solutions that are needed to ensure that practical demands do not compromise methodological rigour. The series will grow over time, allowing UNICEF staff and partners to share new experiences and approaches as they emerge from applied research. The overarching aim is to contribute to strengthening capacity in research and evaluation, improving UNICEF and partners’ ability to provide evidence-based, strategic, long-term solutions for children. This methodological brief focuses on the qualitative component of the evaluation of the Ghana Livelihood Empowerment against Poverty (LEAP) 1000. Quantitative measures will indicate if LEAP 1000 reduces child poverty, stunting and other measures of well-being, while qualitative research explores in more depth the reasons why and how this may or may not be happening. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; programme evaluation; research methods; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:metbri:metbri852&r=ger |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Marcelo C. Pereira; Andrea Roventini; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | This paper is meant to analyse the effects of labour market structural reforms by means of an agent-based model. Building on Dosi et al., (2016b) we introduce a policy regime change characterized by a set of structural reforms on the labour market, keeping constant the structure of the capital- and consumption-good markets. Confirming a recent IMF report (Jaumotte and Buitron, 2015), the model shows how labour market structural reforms reducing workersù bargaining power and compressing wages tend to increase (i) unemployment, (ii) functional income inequality, and (iii) personal income inequality. We further undertake a global sensitivity analysis on key variables and parameters which confirms the robustness of our findings. |
| Keywords: | Labour Market Structural Reforms, Income Distribution, Inequality, Unemployment, Long-Run Growth |
| Date: | 2016–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2016/27&r=ger |
| By: | Juan Carlos Cuestas (EestiPank); Luis A. Gil-Alana (University of Navarra) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to shine some light on the effect of oil price movements on unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe. In order to do so, we disentangle oil prices movements by their sign. From there we analyse the separate effect of positive and negative movements of oil prices on unemployment rates. We find that although oil prices and unemployment are not very much correlated in the short run, the effect of oil price shocks on the natural rate of unemployment goes in the same direction, i.e. increases or decreases in oil prices increase or decrease the natural rate of unemployment. |
| Keywords: | unemployment rates; oil prices shocks; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | C22 E39 Q43 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:una:unccee:wp0216&r=ger |
| By: | Joachim Kaldasch |
| Abstract: | The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.01248&r=ger |
| By: | Echeverría, Lucía; Berges, Miriam |
| Abstract: | En las últimas décadas, los estudios que analizan el bienestar subjetivo se han incrementado sustancialmente. En Argentina, se han abordado las dimensiones de calidad de vida, de satisfacción y felicidad con la vida y de pobreza subjetiva. Este trabajo focaliza en las percepciones de los individuos cuando deben asociar ingresos a niveles de vida en la ciudad de Mar del Plata. El objetivo del trabajo es doble. En primer lugar, evaluar cuáles son los factores que condicionan las percepciones subjetivas de los individuos sobre los ingresos del hogar necesarios para alcanzar distintos niveles de bienestar. En segundo lugar, explorar la factibilidad del empleo de esta información subjetiva para la estimación de escalas de equivalencia. |
| Keywords: | Bienestar; Ingresos de Hogares; Gastos de Consumo; Percepción; Escalas de Equivalencia; |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2508&r=ger |
| By: | Ying Jiao (ISFA); Idris Kharroubi (CREST, CEREMADE) |
| Abstract: | We study an optimal investment problem under default risk where related information such as loss or recovery at default is considered as an exogenous random mark added at default time. Two types of agents who have different levels of information are considered. We first make precise the insider's information flow by using the theory of enlargement of filtrations and then obtain explicit logarithmic utility maximization results to compare optimal wealth for the insider and the ordinary agent. MSC: 60G20, 91G40, 93E20 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.02743&r=ger |
| By: | Graña, Fernando Manuel; Liseras, Natacha; Belmartino, Andrea; Mauro, Lucía Mercedes |
| Abstract: | En el presente informe se exponen los resultados obtenidos a partir del relevamiento a empresas industriales del Partido de General Pueyrredon. |
| Keywords: | Empresas Industriales; Desempeño; Innovación; Diversificación de la Producción; Partido de General Pueyrredon; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2478&r=ger |
| By: | Christophe Muller (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics) CNRS & EHESS); Klarizze Anne Martin Puzon (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics) CNRS & EHESS) |
| Abstract: | By constructing a novel measure on the frequency of changes in social protection policies, we provide preliminary, yet new evidence on the determinants of social security reforms in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. This fills a gap in literature where analyses of MENA social policies have been lacking due to limited data. Using panel data for seventeen countries from 1961 to 2015, we estimate RE Poisson regression models. Our results indicate that growth in national income and the frequency of social reform in MENA countries are related, first positively for low growth rates, then negatively for high growth rates. This finding is completed by the negative effects of oil production and of the population size on the number of social reforms. Among the avenues of interpretation we examined - investment model, social objectives pursued by the government, and socio-political equilibrium - this is the first one which seems to be better able to fit our results, accompanied by political disturbances. |
| Keywords: | Social Protection, Welfare Programs, Middle-East and North-Africa |
| JEL: | I38 O23 H24 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1623&r=ger |
| By: | Kurtovic, Safet; Halili, Blerim; Maxhuni, Nehat |
| Abstract: | Bilateral trade elasticity is important in the analysis of the international trade flows and their anticipation in the process of establishing macroeconomic policy. Our research is based on bilateral data and the assessment of the influence of currency depreciation on the bilateral trade elasticity of B&H and its seven leading trade partners from Central and Southeast Europe. We applied the ARDL econometric technique in the research. In the short term we investigated the presence of the Marshall-Lerner condition (M-L condition) for Croatia and FYR Macedonia, while in the long term we investigated the presence of the M-L condition for Slovenia. In addition, we investigated, in certain cases, the presence of the J-curve, i.e. long-term impact of currency depreciation on the elasticity of export and import demand function. Finally, based on the application of diagnostic statistics and stability tests, the stability of the coefficient was confirmed in the majority of cases. |
| Keywords: | M-L condition, J-curve, elasticity, exchange rate, trade |
| JEL: | F14 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2016–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72297&r=ger |
| By: | Ignacio Lozano-Espitia (Banco de la República de Colombia); Lina Ma. Ramírez-Villegas (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the role of rural infrastructure on the performance of some agricultural crops in Colombia. The study utilizes geo-referenced cross sectional data of four crops, coffee, rice, beans and plantains, collected for the majority of municipalities. Using genetic matching models, we find that both having access to irrigation and drainage systems and better infrastructure for marketing –rural roads and nearby retail and wholesale centers– significantly increase crop yield as well as planted and harvested areas. Results are robust to a suitable set of matching algorithms. The positive and significant impact on agricultural development provides support to reorient agricultural policy towards the supply of public goods that pushes up productivity. Classification JEL: H41, Q12, Q15, R42, C21 |
| Keywords: | Public Goods, Agricultural Productivity, Irrigation System, Road Maintenance, Treatment Effect Models |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:948&r=ger |
| By: | Mishra, SK |
| Abstract: | The entire education system of Bihar, starting from primary to higher education is plagued by corruption and disregard for quality. Although the Bihari youths have wonderful brains, amazing perseverance, and tenacity to pursue their goals, Bihar is better known for supplying unskilled laborers to the entire nation as well as the land of poverty, ignorance, corruption and political buffoonery. This is because her youths are maimed and nurtured to be differently-abled to make a reserve army of followers serving the interests of destructive leaders. Bihar has fallen into the toxic triangle of destructive leaders, susceptible followers and conducive environment. The socio-political system characterizes a soft state and there are formidable countervailing forces to resist any positive change. Populism and opportunism among the political leaders deny all positive changes. Criminality is all pervasive. One wonders whether this night will ever be followed by a dawn! |
| Keywords: | Education system, Bihar, examination, toxic triangle, destructive leadership |
| JEL: | I0 I38 O53 |
| Date: | 2016–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72358&r=ger |
| By: | Rafal Kierzenkowski; Aleksandra Paciorek; Gabor Fulop |
| Abstract: | Strong and adequate skills are essential to support workers’ productivity and to ensure robust employment outcomes. Developing workers’ skills would also increase their personal satisfaction and wages, contributing in making growth more inclusive. The Netherlands performs well in terms of competences of a large part of the population. Moreover, the country has been successful in adjusting the required level of skills over time. The education system plays a key role in developing skills and achieves good results, but there is room to make vocational education and lifelong learning less job-specific to better adapt to new economic trends. There is scope to use more effectively existing skills at work of youth entering the labour market and entrepreneurs, and to reduce labour market mismatches. Another challenge is to help some people to acquire skills by facilitating their labour market integration – in particular first- and second-generation immigrants, long-term unemployed, and people with low educational attainment and health problems -, which requires stronger targeted active labour market policies. Développer les compétences de tous aux Pays-Bas Des compétences solides et adéquates sont indispensables pour asseoir la productivité des travailleurs et assurer des résultats satisfaisants sur le plan de l’emploi. Développer les compétences des travailleurs aurait également pour effet d’accroître leur degré de satisfaction personnelle et leurs salaires, contribuant ainsi à rendre la croissance plus inclusive. Les Pays-Bas obtiennent de bons résultats du point de vue des compétences d’une large fraction de la population. En outre, le pays a réussi à ajuster le niveau de compétences requis au fil du temps. Le système éducatif joue un rôle clé dans le développement des compétences et donne de bons résultats, mais il est encore possible de rendre l’enseignement professionnel et l’apprentissage tout au long de la vie moins spécifiques à un type donné d’emploi afin de favoriser une meilleure adaptation aux nouvelles tendances économiques. Il existe également une marge permettant d’utiliser plus efficacement les actuelles compétences au travail des jeunes entrant sur le marché du travail et des entrepreneurs, et de réduire les problèmes d’appariements sur le marché du travail. Un autre enjeu consiste à aider certaines personnes à acquérir des compétences en facilitant leur intégration sur le marché du travail, en particulier les immigrés de première et deuxième générations, les chômeurs de longue durée et les personnes ayant un faible niveau d’études ou des problèmes de santé, ce qui suppose de déployer plus vigoureusement des politiques actives du marché du travail ciblées. |
| Keywords: | education, active labour market policies, entrepreneurship, skills, labour markets |
| JEL: | I28 J24 J48 L26 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1306-en&r=ger |
| By: | Michel Denuit; Jan Dhaene; Hamza Hanbali; Nathalie Lucas; Julien Trufin |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a practical way for ex-post indexing of level premiums in lifelong medical insurance contracts, in order to take into account observed medical inflation. We show that ex-post indexing can be achieved by considering only premiums, without explicit reference to reserves. This appears to be relevant in practice as reserving mechanisms may not be transparent to policyholders and as some insurers do not compute contract-specific reserves, managing the whole portfolio in a collective way. The present study originates from a proposal for indexing lifelong medical insurance level premiums in Belgium. As an application, we study the impact of various indexing mechanisms on a typical medical insurance portfolio on the Belgian market. |
| Keywords: | health insurance, reserving, inflation, premium update, solvency evaluation |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:afiper:544624&r=ger |
| By: | Konstantins Benkovskis (Bank of Latvia); Eduards Goluzins; Olegs Tkacevs (Bank of Latvia) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the first CGE model for Latvia that consists of 32 industries, 55 products and seven categories of final users. To construct the model we use Latvia's National Supply and Use tables for 2011 from the WIOD database. Special attention is devoted to the fiscal block: the model consists of five government expenditure types and five revenue sources, including such four major taxes as the personal income tax (PIT), state social insurance mandatory contributions (SSIMC), value added tax (VAT) and excise tax. We also introduce an endogenous shadow economy, the size of which depends on the level of tax rates and economic activity. These features of the model allow us to obtain rich and detailed conclusions about the effect of several fiscal measures on Latvia's economy, both in aggregate and by sector. |
| Keywords: | CGE model, Latvia, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | D58 C68 H2 H6 |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:201601&r=ger |
| By: | Lina Marcela Moyano-Támara; Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar los principales determinantes de la brecha educativa de los adolescentes en Colombia y establecer cuáles son los patrones de la movilidad social desde un enfoque regional. La metodología utilizada consistió en estimar regresiones de la brecha educativa y posteriormente aplicar la descomposición propuesta por Fields para determinar la importancia de los antecedentes familiares sobre los resultados educativos de los adolescentes. Los resultados indican que los adolescentes con padres más educados y con mayor ingreso per cápita presentan menores brechas educativas. Además, las regiones con menor movilidad social son Caribe y Valle del Cauca. |
| Keywords: | Movilidad social, brecha educativa, capital humano. |
| JEL: | J62 I20 D63 |
| Date: | 2015–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014777&r=ger |
| By: | Francisco Javier Caro-González; José Alberto Acosta Guzmán; Francisco Orgaz-Agüera; Mario Castellanos-Verdugo |
| Abstract: | El turismo es una actividad económica que puede contribuir a mejorar el desarrollo socioeconómico de un destino. Así, este estudio cualitativo se realiza en la ciudad dominicana de Santiago de los Caballeros y tiene como objetivo conocer la opinión de los expertos en turismo de la ciudad, para analizar, tras un periodo determinado, si ha mejorado este sector. Entre los principales resultados cabe resaltar que existe voluntad para el desarrollo del turismo, pero esto solo se queda plasmado en diferentes planes, puesto que no terminan de realizarse. Destacan un gran número de recursos potenciales, sobre todo de temática cultural y natural, aunque también existen debilidades. Mediante el análisis de estos puntos fuertes y débiles, se pueden establecer estrategias para ayudar a los planificadores actuales a identificar las verdaderas preocupaciones y los problemas del turismo para poner en marcha las políticas apropiadas. |
| Keywords: | Turismo, desarrollo económico, sostenibilidad, agentes sociales, República Dominicana. |
| JEL: | D01 D02 L83 M1 |
| Date: | 2015–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014780&r=ger |
| By: | López-Pérez, Víctor |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to reply to the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB's SPF). The results suggest that higher (lower) aggregate uncertainty increases (reduces) non-response to the survey. This effect is statistically and economically significant. Therefore, the assumption that individual ECB's SPF data are missing at random may not be appropriate. Moreover, the forecasters that perceive more individual uncertainty seem to have a lower likelihood of replying to the survey. Consequently, measures of uncertainty computed from individual ECB's SPF data could be biased downwards. |
| Keywords: | Non-response,uncertainty,Survey of Professional Forecasters,European Central Bank |
| JEL: | D81 D84 E66 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201629&r=ger |
| By: | C. Kirabo Jackson; Alexey Makarin |
| Abstract: | We analyze an experiment in which middle-school math teachers were randomly given access to “off-the-shelf” lessons designed to develop students’ deep understanding. These lessons were provided online, but are designed to be taught by teachers in a traditional classroom setting. Teaching involves multiple complementary tasks, but we model two: imparting knowledge and developing understanding. In our model, lessons designed to develop understanding substitute for teacher effort on this task so that teachers who may only excel at imparting knowledge can be effective overall – simplifying the job of teaching. Providing teachers with online access to the lessons with supports to promote their use increased students’ math achievement by about 0.08 of a standard deviation. These effects appear to be mediated by the lessons promoting deep understanding, and teachers therefore being able to provide more individualized attention. Benefits were much larger for weaker teachers, suggesting that weaker teachers compensated for skill deficiencies by substituting the lessons for their own efforts. The intervention is highly scalable and is more cost effective than most policies aimed at improving teacher quality. |
| JEL: | I20 J0 J48 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22398&r=ger |
| By: | Giulia Rita Biavati; Emidia Vagnoni |
| Abstract: | The main goal of any health care organization is to maximize patients’ health status. However, the issue related to the optimal allocation of scarce resources highlights the need to undertake choices among the available alternatives. In the medical field, physical inactivity has been identified as the fourth leading risk factor, counting the 6% of global mortality. Moreover, physical inactivity is associated to several diseases, including cardiovascular diseases. In particular, costs related to a sedentary lifestyle have a massive impact on health expenditure. Therefore, the need to develop large- scale intervention programs has arisen. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at highlighting both the role of physical activity in the rationalization of health expenditure, and its impact on the wellbeing of cardiac patients. It will be particularly emphasized the role of economic valuation methodologies and public policies aimed to increase physical activity levels in the population. |
| Keywords: | Economic evaluation; physical inactivity; health expenditure; public policies; cardiovascular diseases |
| JEL: | M20 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udf:wpaper:2016045&r=ger |
| By: | Hansson, Åsa (Department of Economics, Lund University); Olofsdotter, Karin (Department of Economics, Lund University); Thede, Susanna (University of Malta) |
| Abstract: | There is a strong general concern amongst policymakers worldwide that multinational enterprises engage in far-reaching tax-planning activities. It is generally thought that by using transfer pricing or other techniques to shift profits, multinational enterprises can avoid taxation and thereby erode tax bases. Several attempts have been made to tackle this problem, not least through the OECD/G20 initiated Action Plan on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting. It is hard, however, to empirically quantify the magnitude of tax-planning activities that takes place. In this paper, we rely on census data from tax return and income statements and balance sheets reported by Swedish manufacturing firms in the 1997-2007 time period to identify possible profit-shifting activities by multinational enterprises. We study systematic differences between multinational and comparable domestic firms in tax payments, profits, earnings before interest and taxes, and equity ratios using difference-in-differences estimations based on propensity score matching. The detailed data allow us to narrow down the empirical focus and investigate not only whether multinational pay less in taxes than domestic firms, but also how tax planning activities may take place through transfer pricing and/or internal debt set-ups. |
| Keywords: | Firm behavior; Tax planning; Profit shifting |
| JEL: | F23 H26 L20 |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_017&r=ger |
| By: | Hernández Martínez, Pedro Jesús |
| Abstract: | The small average size of Spanish firms has been put forward as the main impediment to their international competitiveness. This paper re-examines the link between firm size and exports. The new theories of international trade emphasize firm heterogeneity as the theoretical basis of export behavior. In the context of this heterogeneity, the paper uses the quantile regression methodology to analyze the effect of firm size on firm export propensity (percentage of exported sales). The paper confirms the existence of a positive relationship between firm size and export intensity but finds that the conventional estimates of the elasticity of export propensity with respect to firm size on the average of the export propensities distribution underestimate the effect at the bottom of the distribution and overestimate the effect on most of it. Consequently, policies aimed at increasing exports should concentrate their efforts on increasing the size of those firms with lower export propensity. |
| Keywords: | exports,firm size,quantile regression,firm heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F14 L25 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201625&r=ger |
| By: | Ghassan, Hassan B. |
| Abstract: | The novelty of Shibani’s earning model is its integration of Zakat and other social giving in the social welfare function, which makes the consumer utility a multi-dimensional devotional, material, ethical, social, Shariah-compliant function. In the model, the consumer’s income evolves increasingly from imperative earning that covers consumer’s basic needs, to recommended earning that covers basic needs of relatives; and to permissible earning that covers the poor’s needs. Accordingly, the model has imperative, recommended, and permissible utility. The rich consumer draws additional utility from Zakat spending in favor of the poor consumers. Based on the social solidarity, we show that the marginal earning depends on the first difference between the MPC of lower and upper social groups. The permissible marginal utility is related to the faith interaction and enhances the social utility as social transfer is paid to poor and needy groups. |
| Keywords: | consumer, faith, Zakah, imperative, recommended, permissible, earning, spending, utility. |
| JEL: | D1 D6 I3 P46 |
| Date: | 2015–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72441&r=ger |
| By: | Judith Fessehaie; Zavareh Rustomjee; Lauralyn Kaziboni |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential to leverage large-scale mineral extraction in Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe to foster mineral beneficiation and upstream industries. The evidence suggests that the success or failure of a resource-based industrialization approach is country and sector specific, requiring the deployment of different and appropriately tailored policy instruments. We also find that the design and implementation of resource-based industrialization policies is heavily influenced by power relationships, in terms of control over mining rents, relationships between mining companies and domestic business, and across different segments of the domestic business sector. |
| Keywords: | linkage development, supplier development, beneficiation, Southern Africa, resource-based industrialization |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-083&r=ger |
| By: | Dmitry Levando |
| Abstract: | The paper suggests a non-cooperative simultaneous game, with a number of potential deviators is a parameter of the game. A definition of the game embeds mechanism design. The game has an equilibrium in mixed strategies. The equilibrium encompasses intra and inter group externalities and individual payoffs that make it different from a strong Nash, coalition-proof equilibrium and some other equilibrium concepts. We offer a non-cooperative stability criterion to describe a robustness of an equilibrium strategy profile to an increase in a number of deviators. The criterium may serve as a way to measure trust for the equilibrium in terms of a number of potential deviators. |
| Keywords: | Non-cooperative games |
| JEL: | C72 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2016:15&r=ger |
| By: | Blau, David M. (Ohio State University); Goodstein, Ryan |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of receiving an inheritance on the labor force participation (LFP) of both the recipient and the recipient's spouse in a population of older married couples. An inheritance is not subject to laws governing division of marital property at divorce, because it is not acquired with income earned during marriage. Hence it plays the role of a "distribution factor" in the intrahousehold allocation of resources, increasing bargaining power of the recipient. Controlling for inheritance expectations, we interpret the receipt of an inheritance as a shock to wealth. Our results indicate that receiving an inheritance reduces LFP of the recipient by four percentage points, comparable in magnitude to the effect of a decline in health. However, an inheritance has little or no effect on LFP of the spouse. These estimates are inconsistent with a dynamic, collective model of the household in which spouses have the ability to commit to an ex ante efficient allocation. The results are consistent with a model of limited commitment in which a shock to household resources can alter bargaining power. We discuss the implications for reform of Social Security spouse and survivor benefits. |
| Keywords: | inheritances, commitment, labor force participation, retirement, collective model of household |
| JEL: | J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10059&r=ger |
| By: | Ruth Towse (CIPPM, Bournemouth University and CREATe (University of Glasgow)); Hyojung Sun (CIPPM, Bournemouth University and University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this Working Paper is to pass on our experience of research on song titles and product cycles in UK music publishing which was intended to provide evidence of the impact of copyright in a market. The Working Paper relates to the article ‘Economics of Music Publishing: Copyright and the Market’, published in the Journal of Cultural Economics, 2016. The context of the research was a project on copyright and business models in music publishing that was part of the AHRC funded project: the ‘Economic Survival in a Long Established Creative Industry: Strategies, Business Models and Copyright in Music Publishing’. By collecting data on the product cycles of a sample of long-lasting song titles and trying to establish changes in the product cycle as the copyright regime changed we had hoped to produce empirical evidence on the effect changes in the copyright regime, such as term extension, or to those in copyright management organisations. For a variety of reasons, this proved impossible to do (at least in the UK) and the Working Paper explains what we think were the reasons. It may also serve as a possible warning to others attempting the same thing. The paper also suggests that previous research that did not consider the ambiguities of ‘a song title’ may be flawed. |
| Keywords: | Song titles, product cycles, copyright |
| JEL: | Z11 Z18 L88 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-06-2016&r=ger |
| By: | Yuki Shigeta |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study optimal switching problems under ambiguity. To characterize the optimal switching under ambiguity in the finite horizon, we use multidimensional reflected backward stochastic differential equations (multidimensional RBSDEs) and show that a value function of the optimal switching under ambiguity coincides with a solutions to multidimensional RBSDEs with allowing negative switching costs. Furthermore, we naturally extend the finite horizon problem to the infinite horizon problem. In some applications, we show that ambiguity affects an optimal switching strategy with the different way to a usual switching problem without ambiguity. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Switching, Ambiguity Aversion, Reflected Backward Stochastic Differential Equation, Viscosity Solution. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-16-005&r=ger |
| By: | Judith Fessehaie; Zavareh Rustomjee; Lauralyn Kaziboni |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the linkages between the national systems of innovation of Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe and their respective mineral extraction and mineral processing value chains, including input industries. Our analysis reveals four individual national systems of innovation, with different outcomes in terms of engineering skills development, technical vocational education and training, research and development, innovation capabilities, and competitiveness of the domestic engineering consultancy services. These national systems of innovation are tentatively interconnected as an embryonic regional system of innovation, including institutional relationships, cross-border investment flows, flows of mining-related goods and services, and intra-Southern African Development Community flows of students, lecturers, technicians, and engineers. Notwithstanding important dynamics related to skills development and competence building happening across borders, more collaborative and synergistic initiatives between government, industry, and teaching and research institutions are required to shape a more balanced and coherent regional systems of innovation. |
| Keywords: | national system of innovation, linkage development, human capital and industrialization, southern Africa, resource-based industrialization, Southern African Development Community |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-084&r=ger |
| By: | Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the implications of monetary policy changes on the welfare in the U.S economy over the pre-1984 and post-1984 periods. We use a New-Keynesian model with trend inflation based on Ascari, Phaneuf and Sims (2015). First, our results show that the welfare costs respond symmetrically to a rise and a decline in trend inflation, trend growth and the level of volatility of output, output growth and inflation over the sample periods. Second, we find that changes in monetary policy and in trend inflation across the two subsamples play an important role in the shift of macroeconomic variables volatilities unconditionally and conditionally to neutral technology, marginal efficiency of investment and monetary shocks. |
| Keywords: | Welfare, trend in ation, New Keynesian Models |
| JEL: | E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72479&r=ger |
| By: | Annina Kaltenbrunner (Leeds University Business School); Juan Pablo Painceira (Central Bank of Brazil) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the recent changes in financial practices and relations in emerging capitalist economies (ECEs) on the basis of using the example of Brazil. It argues that in ECEs these financial transformations, which are akin to those observed in Core Capitalist Economies (CCEs) summarised under the heading of financialisation, are fundamentally shaped by their integration into a financialised and structured world economy. Moreover, this integration takes place in a subordinated way. The paper draws on the multidisciplinary framework of international currency hierarchies in order to analyse this subordinated financial integration and tendency toward financialisation. It shows how the existence of a hierarchic international monetary system has changed the financial behaviour of domestic economic agents as well as the structure of the domestic financial system. In doing so, the paper focuses on two specific channels. The first channel highlights the phenomenon of reserve accumulation and the changing behaviour of domestic banks. The second channel concerns the ECEs’ sustained external vulnerability and the impact of such vulnerability on the operations of Brazilian firms. The paper shows that not only have these financial transformations been shaped by ECEs’ subordinated financial integration, but also that these financialisation tendencies have contributed to cementing existing hierarchies and deepening uneven economic development. |
| Keywords: | Financialisation, Currency Hierarchy, Reserve Accumulation, External Vulnerability, Brazil |
| JEL: | F32 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper146&r=ger |
| By: | Marco Boccaccio (Università Sapienza di Roma - Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici, Filosofici ed Economici) |
| Abstract: | Shifting control from ex ante to ex post: the revolution of state aid modernization. In 2012 European Commission started a comprehensive reform of state aid control. The core of the reform is Regulation n. 651/2014, which extends the exemption from notification obligation to a wide number of aid measures. This is not only a quantitative change but a qualitative one as well. Member states are called to verify the respect of the conditions for the exemption should comply with information obligations and in some cases must evaluate the effect of the aid measures adopted. This substantial shift from the traditional ex ante to ex post control should render easier for Member States to grant aids, which are assumed compatible with the internal market. Nevertheless, some fear the danger that an effective control will be weakened. |
| Keywords: | European competition policy, state aid control, modernization |
| JEL: | H10 H L88 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00022&r=ger |
| By: | Pierre Courtioux (EDHEC Business School et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Thais Tristan-Pierre Maury (EDHEC Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this article, based on social segregation indices (both entropy and exposure indices) for the period 2004-2014, we compare the level of social diversity at the middle school level between private schools, public schools (excluding priority education) and public schools in priority education zones. For a given level of social diversity, we also look at the way advantaged social background pupils might concentrate in some schools. Our results show that private schools are slightly over-represented among schools located at the extremes of the distribution of entropy levels, that is to say, both among the most "mixed" and the most "segregated" schools. However, the nature of social diversity varies between public, private and priority education schools. At given level of entropy, private schools receive relatively less disadvantaged social backgrounds pupils. Focusing on the most "segregated" schools, the complementary use of the standardized exposure index shows that there is a tendency to separate students with advantaged social background and other students in private schools, as well as in public schools (excluding priority education). On the contrary, schools in priority education zones are more homogeneous with a large proportion of disadvantaged social group's pupils |
| Keywords: | social diversity, segregation, secondary education, private school, priority education policy |
| JEL: | I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:16048&r=ger |
| By: | V. M. Belyaev |
| Abstract: | Closed form formulas for swaption prices in HJM model are derived. These formulas are used for nonparametric fit of deterministic forward volatility. It is demonstrated that this formula and non-parametric fit works very well and can be used to identify arbitrage opportunities |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.01619&r=ger |
| By: | Mario de la Puente |
| Abstract: | Este artículo analiza la dinámica del turismo de salud para el caso colombiano mediante un método teórico-descriptivo a partir de la recopilación de información primaria y secundaria sobre el sector mundial del turismo de salud y bienestar, y del posicionamiento de los servicios médico-turísticos en Colombia. Se encontró que el impulso del sector se debe principalmente al aporte de actores privados a partir de la explotación de ventajas competitivas en materia de precios, facilidades de acceso al país y el apoyo de agencias nacionales para la promoción del turismo de salud y bienestar. Sin embargo, factores como el bajo nivel de bilingüismo, la falta de previsión de algunas entidades clínicas para la atención de pacientes internacionales y la escasez de flujo de información entre paciente-médico en el país de origen y país de destino fomenta una seria de trabas y sobrecostos para el paciente internacional que, sumado a una baja cooperación entre los oferentes de diversas industrias, fomenta distorsiones de mercado. |
| Keywords: | Turismo de salud, economía internacional, inversión, comercio internacional |
| JEL: | F10 I11 I15 |
| Date: | 2015–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014786&r=ger |
| By: | Brian A'Hearn (Pembroke College, University of Oxford); Nicola Amendola (Dept. of Economics and Finance, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”); Giovanni Vecchi1 (Dept. of Economics and Finance, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”) |
| Abstract: | Rational retrospective voting models have dominated the literature on election forecasting and the economic vote since they were first proposed by Anthony Downs in 1957. The theory views voters as appraisers of incumbent government’s past performance, which acts as the principal source of information individuals use when making their vote. Pure retrospective voting requires far less of the electorate in order to hold a government accountable and empirical work based on this theory has been very adept at predicting election outcomes and explaining individual voting decisions. In terms of the time period assessed to form judgements on past performance however, there is a surprising disconnect between the theoretical line of thought and actual testing. The sensible assumption of retrospective voting models is that voters, looking to judge a government’s past performance, should assess changes in their own welfare over an entire term of office, with little or no discounting of past events. The majority of empirical studies however, focus on economic performance over shorter time horizons, usually within a year of an election. There have only been a handful of studies attempting to empirically test the correct temporal relationship between changes in economic indicators and election outcomes, despite its importance for retrospective voting models and democratic accountability. This working paper empirically tests over which time horizons changes in macroeconomic fundamentals continue to have a significant bearing on election outcomes in Post War Britain. It finds that longer-term measures of economic change, over entire government terms, are better at predicting changes in incumbent’s vote shares than shorter-term measures, closer to the election period. This has important consequences for future voting models and is a promising result for democratic accountability. |
| Keywords: | household budgets; household budget surveys; living standards; inequality; poverty; survey; globalization; purchasing power parities; grouped data; poststratification. |
| JEL: | N30 I31 I32 C81 C83 D60 D63 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_144&r=ger |
| By: | Reis, Ricardo |
| Abstract: | Analysis of quantitative easing (QE) typically focus on the recent past studying the policy's effectiveness during a financial crisis when nominal interest rates are zero. This paper examines instead the usefulness of QE in a future fiscal crisis, modeled as a situation where the fiscal outlook is inconsistent with both stable inflation and no sovereign default. The crisis can lower welfare through two channels, the first via aggregate demand and nominal rigidities, and the second via contractions in credit and disruption in financial markets. Managing the size and composition of the central bank's balance sheet can interfere with each of these channels, stabilizing inflation and economic activity. The power of QE comes from interest-paying reserves being a special public asset, neither substitutable by currency nor by government debt. |
| Keywords: | new-style central banks; Unconventional Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E44 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11381&r=ger |
| By: | Zanfrillo, Alicia Inés |
| Abstract: | El propósito del trabajo consiste en analizar la transferencia de tecnología -conocimientos, saberes prácticos, metodologías- llevada a cabo en el sector asociativo de la ciudad de Mar del Plata de la República Argentina, en el marco de un proyecto de Voluntariado Universitario. La experiencia tuvo como propósito valorizar el conocimiento real del sector y se aprovechó la oportunidad que ofrecen las tecnologías, para socializar experiencias en una comunidad de práctica virtual. Si bien la adopción de tecnologías por los agentes de economía social es creciente, aún resulta incipiente, con un gran desconocimiento del potencial de la participación en espacios no presenciales, desde un rol que supere la etapa de visibilización de la actividad productiva. La sustentabilidad de los emprendimientos requiere no sólo de condiciones del entorno y económicas para su éxito, sino que demanda un capital cultural en los agentes de economía social desarrollado en base a negociación de significados, valores compartidos y construcción de conocimiento relacional, situado y experiencial en pos de una inclusión más extensiva e intensiva. La problemática subyacente es la falta de equidad en el acceso a la información y el conocimiento por los agentes de economía social que, aunque hayan superado en gran medida las brechas de acceso a las tecnologías aún mantienen las diferencias en la aplicación de conocimientos para su uso y en las competencias necesarias. Se utilizó una estrategia cualitativa, de tipo exploratoria-descriptiva, con aplicación de entrevistas. El análisis -basado en el sentido cognitivo de las competencias y la producción de conocimiento mediada por tecnologías- devela que el sector no asume su propia práctica como un bien transferible ni es objeto de reconocimiento; sí valoriza el rol de las instituciones en la consolidación de formas asociativas y la interacción con sus pares en el agregado de valor y promoción de sus bienes. |
| Keywords: | Transferencia de Tecnología; Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones; Tercer Sector; |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2487&r=ger |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Levels of educational attainment do not only vary among countries, but also within them. In many countries, people with tertiary education – usually the most skilled people – are more highly represented in the capital region. Regional employment rates in many countries vary more widely among adults without upper secondary education than among those with upper secondary education or higher. In many countries, the percentage of young people neither in employment nor in education or training (NEET) is twice as high in some regions as in others. |
| Date: | 2016–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaaf:43-en&r=ger |
| By: | Kate Bayliss (School of Oriental and African Studies) |
| Abstract: | This is a Foresight paper prepared for the EU-funded research project, Financialisation, Economy, Society and Sustainable Development, FESSUD. Drawing on lessons from the provision of water in England, the paper anticipates future developments in the provision of health, exploring the increasing role of finance and financial cultures. This is captured in the term “financialisation” which has recently emerged in academic literature to account for the rapid expansion of financial assets and financial activity in the economy, and the expanding reach of the financial sector into traditionally non-financial areas of economic and social life. The paper starts with an overview of the context in which financialisation has evolved within, and impacted upon, the National Health Service (NHS). Two contextual elements stand out. First, since the 1980s, the NHS has been subject to incremental reforms to introduce market-mimetic structures. These reforms accelerated with the introduction of the 2012 Health and Social Care Act (HSCA). This legislation has only just begun to have an impact at the time of writing (December 2015), but the extent of private sector involvement in health provision is likely to increase rapidly as a result of the Act. The second significant aspect of the context for financialisation is the growing financial deficit in the NHS which creates an important backdrop to the HSCA reforms. Irrespective of the proximate as well as the deeper reasons for this, it provides for a narrative of “unaffordability” and “inefficiency”, itself taken as a rationale both for greater private sector intervention and as justification for NHS trusts to increase revenue from private sources. However, the paper shows that this narrative thread does not fit with global data which indicate that the NHS is broadly in line with OECD averages for spending on GDP, and health outcomes. The paper considers four mechanisms by which financialisation is affecting the health service in England. First, financing in the sector is allocated on the basis of internal “markets” which mimic financialised structures (regardless of ownership or provision). An institutional division between the “purchaser” and “provider” of health services within the NHS has been refined over the years since it was first introduced in the early 1990s. Health providers are remunerated via a complex “pricing” system known as Payment by Results (PBR) so that transactions between state agencies are delineated in financial terms. Second, financial processes have become embedded in the sector via the process of tendering to both NHS and private service providers. A growing proportion of services has been contracted to private companies, particularly in the wake of the 2012 HSCA. Aside from creeping privatization, this process brings financial practices into the provision of health services, with, for example, health commissioners required to observe competition law even where contracts are awarded to state organisations. Third, under the 2012 HSCA, the cap on the proportion of income that NHS providers can raise from private patients has increased from 2% to 49%, leading to an increase in private patient income within some NHS hospitals. Global finance is becoming more closely integrated with health provision as a result with new partnerships developing between NHS providers and private investors. Finally, since the early 1990s most new capital investment in the NHS has been undertaken through the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) where the private sector finances the design, build and operation of hospitals and these are then leased back to the NHS Trust over a period of decades. These contracts have proven to be costly for NHS hospitals but highly lucrative for (often institutional financial sector) investors in PFI contracts. The paper then considers the nature of the private companies that are involved in healthcare. Health providers are often owned by larger conglomerates for which health is one of many assets in a diverse investment portfolio. The paper compares the changes taking place in health with developments in the water sector in England which has been privatized since 1989 and where financial structures, processes motives and investors have long been established. In both sectors, processes associated with financialisation mean that services are increasingly distanced from the materiality of provision and instead are interpreted in terms of the revenue stream that they can provide to investors. Innovative financial practices have been adopted to boost shareholder returns. In terms of Foresight, health provision is in the process of a fundamental transition from a public service to a financial asset, as has happened in the provision of water in England. The result is expected to be a considerable deepening in the cultures of individualisation and commodification of the health system. This is likely to be associated with a fragmented service and greater inequality in a number of respects: government spending on health will be transferred ultimately to global private finance, boosting the earnings of financial investors; the state will be left with the most difficult (and expensive) to treat as these are of least interest to the private sector; a two-tier system will emerge, with the poorest left with a severely weakened second-rate health system; labour rights are expected to be weakened as employment structures become fragmented across different health providers. Such developments threaten to undermine the core principles on which the NHS was founded. Furthermore, these changes will be difficult to reverse as the ability of the public sector to pose an effective alternative to private and financialised provision of health will be considerably debilitated. |
| Keywords: | Health privatisation, NHS, financialisation |
| JEL: | B50 I18 I38 P16 L33 |
| Date: | 2016–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper131&r=ger |
| By: | Wagner, Kathryn L. (Department of Economics Marquette University) |
| Abstract: | Medicaid reimburses healthcare providers for services at a lower rate than any other type of insurance coverage. To account for the burden of treating Medicaid patients, providers claim that they must cost-shift by raising the rates of individuals covered by private insurance. Previous investigations of cost-shifting has produced mixed results. In this paper, I exploit a disabled Medicaid expansion where crowd-out was complete to investigate cost-shifting. I find that hospitals reduce the charge rates of the privately insured. Given that Medicaid is expanding in several states under the Affordable Care Act, these results may alleviate cost-shifting concerns of the reform |
| JEL: | I11 I13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2016-04&r=ger |
| By: | Dolega, Les; Celińska-Janowicz, Dorota |
| Abstract: | The concept of resilience has gained much attention in recent academic and political discussion. However, its application to specific sectors, such as retail, is rather scarce. The aim of this paper is to present the concept of resilience and to analyse its applicability to the retail sector within the context of the town centre. The paper proposes a possible analytical framework for adaptively resilient retail centres that links the performance of retail centres to underlying development paths, the pre-shock position in the adaptive cycle, and other factors that drive their evolutionary reorganisation. The proposed framework has a practical application for spatial and urban planning and can be beneficial to various stakeholders and practitioners, including retailers, policy makers, and town centre managers. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, shopping, adaptive cycle, retail centre |
| JEL: | O18 O20 R00 R30 R38 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72319&r=ger |
| By: | El-Sahli, Zouheir (Department of Economics, Lund University); Gullstrand, Joakim (Department of Economics, Lund University); Olofsdotter, Karin (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Using Swedish firm-level data on all firms and their affiliates abroad, we investigate what observable firm and country characteristics affect the size of affiliate firms in a particular destination. We employ the richness of the data to investigate the importance of destination country factors in explaining firm outward FDI activities and distinguish between the factors that affect such activities in manufacturing versus services firms as well as vertical versus horizontal investments. Our results lend support to existing theories of multinational activity, including observable differences between vertical and horizontal manufacturing firms, as well as between services and manufacturing FDI firms. |
| Keywords: | outward FDI; globalization; FDI destination; heterogeneous firms |
| JEL: | F10 F20 |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_016&r=ger |
| By: | Domina, Thurston; McEachin, Andrew; Hanselman, Paul; Agarwal, Priyanka; Hwang, NaYoung; Lewis, Ryan |
| Abstract: | Schools utilize an array of strategies to match curricula and instruction to students' heterogeneous skills. While generations of scholars have debated "tracking" and its consequences, the literature fails to account for diversity of school-level sorting practices. In this paper we draw upon the work of Sorenson (1970) to articulate and develop empirical measures of five distinct dimensions of school cross-classroom tracking systems: (1) the degree of course differentiation, (2) the extent to which sorting practices generate skills-homogeneous classrooms, (3) the rate at which students enroll in advanced courses, (4) the extent to which students move between tracks over time, and (5) the relation between track assignments across subject areas. Analyses of longitudinal administrative data following 24,000 8th graders enrolled in 23 middle schools through the 10th grade indicate that these dimensions of tracking are empirically separable and have divergent effects on student achievement and the production of inequality. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1155&r=ger |
| By: | d'Agostino, Giorgio; Scarlato, Margherita |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical analysis of the linkages between the quality of government institutions and economic growth in the European context, highlighting innovation as the intermediate variable that drives this interplay. We use a standard non-scale R&D-based growth model as a theoretical framework and estimate the balanced growth path of per capita GDP for a sample of European countries and the transitional dynamic after a technological shock. Empirical analysis confirms the importance of technology as an instrument for increasing economic growth and suggests that inclusive institutions strongly affect this impact across the European countries. The magnitude of the effect is high: inclusive institutions redouble the effect of a technological shock on the growth rate of per capita GDP. This result suggests that innovation policies should carefully take into account the institutional setting of the contexts in which they are implemented in order to be effective. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Economic growth, Institutions |
| JEL: | O30 O41 O43 |
| Date: | 2016–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72427&r=ger |
| By: | Metaxas, Theodore; Tsavdaridou, Maria |
| Abstract: | The political turn of CSR is one of the dimensions of CSR that concerns many academics, policy makers, NGOs and even more politicians. The last decade this political turn in CSR is under examination especially with the recent developments in Europe in economy and politics which justify the formation of a various theoretical perspectives on the political dimension of it. The following article will discuss the implementation of CSR activities in Denmark and UK in different political time periods along with a presentation of how CSR has evolved in Greece during the period of economic crisis. The implementation of successful CSR practices through legislation, partnerships or guidelines are some of the means that will be used to describe how governments or enterprises use them in order to promote CSR. The case of Greece is a unique case study due to the difficulties that our country faces in every aspect of its everyday life but this article will designate the fact that during the last ten years different governments and the remaining Greek enterprises are still engaged in the CSR field with partnerships, laws or national plans. |
| Keywords: | political CSR, globalization, political theories, governments, enterprises |
| JEL: | M14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72398&r=ger |
| By: | Wolfgang Kerber (University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | The digitalisation of the economy with data as the new critical resource is a technological revolution which requires an adaptation of the legal framework for markets and the economy. This paper analyzes the privacy concerns in the digital economy from an economics perspective. What can we learn from economics whether and to what extent we need legal rules helping to protect privacy? Particularly important are the complex tradeoff problems between benefits and costs of privacy and disclosure. This paper claims that it is not sufficient to look for policy solutions only in one field of the law, as, e.g. competition law or data protection law, rather an integrated approach from different regulatory perspectives is necessary. This paper focusses on competition policy, consumer policy, and data protection policy as the three main regulatory perspectives that are relevant for privacy concerns. For all three policies it is discussed from an economic perspective how these policies might help to remedy market failures in regard to privacy rights and privacy preferences of individuals, and how a more integrated regulatory approach can be developed. |
| Keywords: | digital economy, Big Data, privacy, data protection, competition law, consumer law |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201614&r=ger |
| By: | Daniël Linders; Fan Yang |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of aggregating dependent risks in the presence of partial dependence information. More concretely, we assume that the risks involved belong to independent subgroups and the dependence structure within each group is unknown. We show that a sharp convex upper bound exists in this setting and that the constrained upper bound improves the existing, unconstrained, comonotonic up- per bound in convex order. Moreover, we characterize the constrained upper bound in terms of the distribution of its sum. Numerical illustrations are provided to show the improvement of the new upper bound. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:afiper:544634&r=ger |
| By: | Chisik,Richard Asher; Onder,Harun; Qirjo,Dhimitri |
| Abstract: | This study considers the role of demand-driven changes arising from population aging and how they affect the pattern of international trade as well as trade and immigration policy. An aging society can see a welfare-reducing reduction in its share of manufacturing output and this reduction is magnified by a decrease in trade costs (an increase in globalization). Immigration can ameliorate this outcome if it is directed toward younger immigrants. A unilateral tariff increase can also reduce firm delocation from an aging country, however, a reciprocated tariff increase will unambiguously harm the country with the older average population. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7740&r=ger |
| By: | Bataa, Erdenebat; Wohar, Mark; Vivian, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamic relationship between interest rates, inflation and economic growth using the longest available dataset for the UK and a vector autoregression (VAR). The approach adopted enables structural breaks to be identified in the dynamic system. It then can ascribe breaks in covariance to changes in volatility or to changes in correlation. Our empirical findings indicate several structural breaks in the relationship, which lead to very different inference compared to a constant parameter model. For example, interest rates respond much more strongly to growth or inflation over recent decades. Furthermore, our evidence suggests that all variables become more persistent after the classical gold standard ended with the onset of WW1. |
| Keywords: | Short-term Interest Rate, Inflation, Growth, VAR, Structural Breaks |
| JEL: | C12 C32 E20 |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72422&r=ger |
| By: | Natalie Chen (University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo and CEPR); Luciana Juvenal (International Monetary Fund) |
| Abstract: | We explore the heterogeneous effects of the global financial crisis on international trade flows differentiated by quality. Combining a dataset of Argentinean firm-level destination-specific wine exports with experts quality ratings, we show that higher quality exports collapsed more dramatically during the recession. This flight from quality was triggered by a fall in aggregate demand, and was stronger for smaller firms’ exports and in the countries where households could substitute imports by domestic alternatives. Quantitatively, our results suggest that the quality composition of exports can explain up to nine percentage points difference in trade performance. |
| Keywords: | Exports, financial crisis, heterogeneity, multi-product firms, quality, wine. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:392&r=ger |
| By: | Kono, Hisaki; Sawada, Yasuyuki; Shonchoy, Abu S. |
| Abstract: | In contrast to the remarkable progress in developing countries in improving primary education, access to higher education in many countries remains limited, especially in rural areas where the quality of education is inadequate. We evaluate a DVD-based distance-learning program in rural Bangladesh, targeted at students aiming to take university entrance tests. We conducted two experiments: one to evaluate the effect of the distance-learning program and the second to determine the demand and price sensitivity. Our first experiment shows that the DVD-based distance-learning program has a considerable positive effect on the number of students passing entrance exams. This effect does not depend on cognitive scores, but does depend on non-cognitive attributes, indicating the importance of commitment, which is imposed through our program. In the second experiment, we offered a random subsidy to interested participants. The uptake decision is price-sensitive, although the price sensitivity is not correlated with students' past academic performance or their socio-economic status, suggesting that increasing the price should not disproportionately exclude poor students. |
| Keywords: | Higher education, Rural societies, Distance-Learning, Tertiary education, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | O15 O22 I15 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper580&r=ger |
| By: | Gersbach, Hans; Muller, Philippe; Tejada, Oriol |
| Abstract: | We develop and study a two-period model of political competition where (i) changes of policies impose costs on all individuals, and (ii) such costs increase linearly with the magnitude of the policy change. The contribution is two-fold. First, we show that intermediate marginal costs yield the lowest levels of policy polarization, welfare being a single-peaked function of the marginal cost. Second, we apply our model to the design of optimal re-election hurdles. We show that whatever the marginal cost of change, raising the vote-share needed for re-election above a half reduces policy polarization and increases welfare. We further prove the existence of a unique re-election hurdle that simultaneously maximizes welfare and minimizes policy polarization. The robustness of our results is studied for several extensions of the baseline model, notably for convex costs of change. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11375&r=ger |
| By: | Sáenz, Mariana |
| Abstract: | El desarrollo del trabajo nos lleva a analizar las acciones municipales, desde la óptica de las normas constitucionales de contenido tributario, los principios constitucionales, y las normas federales. Se indican consideraciones sobre las potestades tributarias de los municipios, sobre el régimen federal dispuesto por nuestra carta magna, con el objetivo de confirmar si las mismas convalidan o no la aplicación de dicho tributo. El análisis permitirá desbrozar una de las problemáticas que emerge en la construcción legislativa de una tasa, que pese a nominarla como tal, la naturaleza jurídica de la norma indica la existencia de un impuesto, especialmente cuando hay ausencia del Estado municipal en la prestación del servicio. |
| Keywords: | Principios Tributarios; Municipios; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2489&r=ger |
| By: | Jordi Caballé; Ariadna Dumitrescu |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the effects of disclosing corporate tax reports on the performance of financial markets and the use of asset prices by the tax enforcement agency in order to infer the true corporate cash flows. We model the interaction between a firm and the tax auditing agency, and highlight the role played by the tax report as a public signal used by the market dealer and the role of prices as a signal used by the tax authority. We discuss the determinants of both the reporting strategy of the firm and the auditing policy of the tax authority. Our model suggests that, despite disclosure of the tax reports being beneficial for market performance (as the spreads and trading costs are smaller than under no disclosure), the tax agency might have incentives to not disclose the tax report when its objective is to maximize expected net tax collection. |
| Keywords: | disclosure, corporate tax, Insider Trading |
| JEL: | G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:911&r=ger |
| By: | Davide Del Prete; Giorgia Giovannetti; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the participation of North African countries into international production networks and examines if/to what extent being part of a global value chain affects firms’ performance. Using largely unexploited Input-Output data from UNCTAD-Eora, we describe regional and country GVC involvement. Results show that North African countries have not been able so far to fully integrate into international production networks. However, large part of their (low) trade is due to value added related activities, mainly in the upstream phases, and the importance of global linkages has been increasing over time. To better understand the impact of international fragmentation of production on competitiveness, we complement the above assessment with a firm-level analysis. We show that the performance of firms, measured by several indicators, is positively associated with both internationalization modes and GVC participation. These results con.rm those of our sectoral analyses and are in line with existing anecdotical evidence. Enhancing GVC participation of North African countries is likely to substantially benefit firms, countries and the whole area. However, the ability to retain such benefits relies on specific characteristics, such as the level of human capital, trade logistics and the presence of trade barriers, thus leaving room for policy intervention. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, fi rm heterogeneity, North Africa, competitiveness |
| JEL: | F14 F15 L23 L25 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/26&r=ger |
| By: | Bertoli, Simone (CERDI, University of Auvergne); Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Keita, Sekou (CERDI, University of Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | The effect of immigration on host and origin countries is mediated by the way migrants take their labor supply decisions. We propose a simple way of integrating the traditional random utility maximization model used to analyze location decisions with a classical labor demand function at destination. Our setup allows us to estimate a general upper bound on the elasticity of the migrant labor supply that we take to the data using the evolution of the numbers and wages of temporary overseas Filipino workers between 1992 and 2009 to different destinations. We find that the migrant labor supply elasticity can be very large. Temporary migrants are very reactive to economic conditions in their potential destinations. |
| Keywords: | labor supply elasticity, temporary migration, international migration, multilateral resistance to migration |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J38 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10031&r=ger |
| By: | Cecilia Tortajada |
| Abstract: | Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) were once considered as altruistic groups which aim was to impartially influence public policy with no vested interests. Nevertheless, this perception has changed. They are increasingly perceived as groups that prioritize their own ideologies or that respond to the interests of their donors, patrons, and members rather than to those of the groups they represent. This article discusses the politics of NGOs in the present changing globalized world as agents concerned with social and environmental change as much as with their own causes. It argues that numerous NGOs are as much a part of national and international politics as any other interest group and that their practices and activities are not always in the search of a good society or the common good. |
| Keywords: | nongovernmental organizations, donors, global public policy, governance, dams |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201623&r=ger |
| By: | Petros C. Mavroidis; Robert Wolfe |
| Abstract: | Private standards are increasing in number, and they affect trade, but their status in the WTO remains problematic. Standards-takers are typically countries with little bargaining power, who cannot affect their terms of trade and thus, even if they possess domestic antitrust laws, will find it hard to persuade standard-setters to take account of their interests. Our concern is to bring more of these standards within the normative framework of the trade regime—that is, we worry that these private forms of social order can conflict with the fundamental norms of transparency and nondiscrimination. The WTO membership has consumed itself in endless discussions regarding mundane, legalistic issues, and has not moved at all towards addressing the real concerns of developing countries. We discuss one aspect of the problem: How reclusive should the WTO allow product standards to be? We argue that the WTO should adopt a “Reference Paper” that would encourage its members to apply WTO rules for adopting those standards that already come under the aegis of the WTO to private standards. In the absence of centralized enforcement, utopia in the WTO legal paradigm, transparency disciplines imposed on standard-setters is the best the WTO could offer to those who are negatively affected by private standards. |
| Keywords: | WTO, private standards, TBT Agreement, transparency |
| JEL: | K40 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/17&r=ger |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana; Kumar, Suresh |
| Abstract: | ‘Teacher quality’ is a composite term to indicate the quality of teachers in terms of explicit qualification of the faculty and implicit teacher characteristics such as ability, commitment, motivation supported by the adequacy of hiring procedures, faculty availability, professional development and recognition of teaching abilities. Teachers take initiative to learn and keep abreast of the latest developments, innovate, continuously seek improvement in their work and strive for individual and institutional excellence. This paper aims to outline the education service model developed by Srinivas Institute of Management studies (SIMS) for maintaining teacher quality. Backed by the presumption that knowledge is power and information is fundamental to knowledge building and knowledge sharing, the college aims to provide quality education to its students for improved academic performance. By providing under graduate and post graduate education in Business Management, Computer Applications and Social Work, the college has been providing education service in major areas of importance to the society. In this paper, we have analysed the strategies followed by Srinivas Institute of Management Studies, Mangalore in planning and management of its human resource to meet the changing requirements of the curriculum, student, and learning and challenges of time and strategies adopted by the institution in enhancing the teacher quality. |
| Keywords: | Teacher quality in higher education institution, Quality in higher education. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72240&r=ger |
| By: | Jorge Antonio Pérez Pineda (Instituto de Investigaciones Dr. José María Luis Mora. México.); Ángel Alañón Pardo (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. España.) |
| Abstract: | El fin de los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio este 2015 y su sustitución por los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sustentable (ODS) para los próximos años, abren la puerta a muchos debates en torno al desarrollo y a la eficacia de la ayuda. Uno de los debates centrales gira en torno a garantizar una ayuda eficaz, mayor transparencia y una gestión orientada a resultados. Así, el presente trabajo aborda algunas de las iniciativas más significativas en torno a ellas. Contrastando con las mediciones clásicas con enfoques micro o macro, son de interés aquellas asociadas a los grandes objetivos del desarrollo, los principios de la eficacia, los procesos y resultados, los esfuerzos locales y regionales y particularidades sobre el rol de distintos actores, pasando por indicadores de cooperación sur-sur, hasta el uso de técnicas espaciales que intentan coadyuvar a un mejor entendimiento de los efectos e impactos que la ayuda y la cooperación internacional tienen sobre el desarrollo. |
| Keywords: | Mediciones; Cooperación Internacional; Desarrollo.; Measurements; International Cooperation; Development. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:wpaper:1505&r=ger |
| By: | (Duke University, NBER and CREATES); Jia Li (Duke University); Yuan Xue (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | We provide new empirical evidence for the way in which financial markets process information. Our results are based on high-frequency intraday data along with new econometric techniques for making inference on the relationship between trading intensity and spot volatility around public news announcements. Consistent with the predictions derived from a theoretical model in which investors agree to disagree, our estimates for the intraday volume-volatility elasticity around the most important news announcements are systematically below unity. Our elasticity estimates also decrease significantly with measures of disagreements in beliefs, economic uncertainty, and textual-based sentiment, further highlighting the key role played by differences-of-opinion. |
| Keywords: | Differences-of-opinion, high-frequency data, jumps, macroeconomic news announcements, trading volume, stochastic volatility, economic uncertainty, textual sentiment |
| JEL: | C51 C52 G12 |
| Date: | 2016–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2016-19&r=ger |
| By: | Powell, Jerome H. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:903&r=ger |
| By: | Clive L. Spash; Clemens Gattringer |
| Abstract: | Human induced climate change poses a series of ethical challenges to the current political economy, although it has often be regarded by economists as only an ethical issue for those concerned about future generations. The central debate in economics has then concerned the rate at which future costs and benefits should be discounted. Indeed the full range of ethical aspects of climate change are rarely even discussed. Despite recent high profile and lengthy academic papers on the topic the ethical remains at best superficial within climate change economics. Recognising the necessary role of ethical judgment poses a problem for economists who conduct exercises in cost-benefit analysis and deductive climate modelling under the presumption of an objectivity that excludes values. Priority is frequently given to orthodox economic methodology, but that this entails a consequentialist utilitarian philosophy is forgotten while the terms of the debate and understanding is simultaneously restricted. We set out to raise the relevance of a broader range of ethical issues including: intergenerational ethics as the basis for the discount rate, interregional distribution of harm, equity and justice issues concerning the allocation of carbon budgets, incommensurability in the context of compensation, and the relationship of climate ethics to economic growth. We argue that the pervasiveness of strong uncertainty in climate science, incommensurability of values and non-utilitarian ethics are inherent features of the climate policy debate. That mainstream economics is ill-equipped to address these issues relegates it to the category of misplaced concreteness and its policy prescriptions are then highly misleading misrepresentations of what constitutes ethical action. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; economics; ethics; carbon budgets; discounting; compensation; harm; intergenerational equity; intragenerational distribution; justice; consequentialism; utilitarianism; incommensurability; risk; uncertainty; cost-benefit analysis; growth economy |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwsre:sre-disc-2016_02&r=ger |
| By: | Vladimir Vovk; Glenn Shafer |
| Abstract: | This paper gives yet another definition of game-theoretic probability in the context of continuous-time idealized financial markets. Without making any probabilistic assumptions (but assuming positive and continuous price paths), we obtain a simple expression for the equity premium and derive a version of the capital asset pricing model. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00830&r=ger |
| By: | Marco Di Cintio, Marco Di Cintio; Sucharita Ghosh, Sucharita Ghosh; Emanuele Grassi, Emanuele Grassi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies firms’ decisions to export and invest in R&D and their effects on employment growth and labor flows for a sample of Italian SMEs operating in the manufacturing industry. After accounting for the under-reporting of R&D in SMEs, our quantile regressions reveal that (i) R&D is associated with higher employment growth rates, higher hiring rates and lower separation rates; (ii) R&D-induced exports are negatively related to employment growth and accessions and positively related to separations; and (iii) pure exports are not a driver of employment growth and labor flows. |
| Keywords: | Exports, R&D, Firm Growth, Quantile Regression, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, J63, M51, O31, F14, |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemet:240750&r=ger |
| By: | Gustavo Rodríguez Albor; Melissa Peláez Blandón; Rafael García Luna |
| Abstract: | El papel que cumple el sector extractivo en la economía ha sido un tema de amplio debate. Este artículo analiza el crecimiento de la inversión canadiense en Colombia, particularmente hacia las actividades extractivas. Los resultados indican que el incremento en los últimos años de la explotación de carbón, petróleo y oro, entre otros, ha generado consecuencias negativas en la economía nacional, el medioambiente, la salud y vulneración de derechos humanos y laborales, e incluso las empresas canadienses, suscritas bajo un acuerdo de ética y responsabilidad en el Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia-Canadá, han estado en el centro de la crítica. |
| Keywords: | Inversión extranjera, commodities, enfermedad holandesa, TLC, Canadá |
| JEL: | F21 Q02 F13 |
| Date: | 2014–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014771&r=ger |
| By: | Joan Costa-Font (Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), UK); Gilberto Turati (Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Does regional decentralization threaten the commitment to regional equality in government outcomes? We attempt to shed light on this question by drawing on unique evidence from the largest European unitary states to have engaged in countrywide health system decentralization: Italy and Spain. We estimate, decompose, and run counterfactual analysis of regional inequality in government output (health expenditure per capita) and outcome (health system satisfaction) during expansion of health care decentralization in both countries. We find no evidence of increase in regional inequalities in outcomes and outputs in the examined period. Inequalities are accounted for by differences in health system design. |
| Keywords: | Health Care Decentralization, Regional Inequality, Health Care, Oaxaca Decomposition |
| JEL: | H7 I18 I3 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:037&r=ger |
| By: | Desmarchelier, Benoît (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Regis, Paulo José (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Salike, Nimesh (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | In a recent series of contributions, Hausmann and Hidalgo (2007 [18]; 2009 [17]; 2011 [15]) propose an outcome-based product space where development traps can emerge quite easily due to low connectivity between products. We extend this model - notably by building on micro-foundations - to take into account cases of leapfrogging and increasing connectedness in the product space. Firms optimize their position in the product space with respect to our proposed fitness landscape. Although we might expect these elements to prevent development traps, lock-ins still emerge, but through a different channel. Indeed, the main driver of poor performance is now the lack of economic opportunities for countries that start in a neighborhood with fierce competition, or populated by goods with low export values. |
| Keywords: | Product Diversification, Network, Fitness Landscape, Development Trap, Agent-Based Modeling |
| Date: | 2016–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2016-01&r=ger |
| By: | Cenkhan Sahin |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a general equilibrium model featuring tax deductible mortgage interest. There are two main results: (i) a higher mortgage interest deduction leads to higher house prices, more levered households, and a higher rate of mortgage default; (ii) when mortgage risk is high the presence of mortgage interest deduction leads to more volatile responses of the main macro-variables to exogenous shocks (i.e. preference, productivity, and mortgage riskiness shocks). The empirical and theoretical evidence presented support the idea that mortgage interest deductibility may be a relevant factor in the occurrence of homeowner foreclosures. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage interest deduction; house prices; mortgage default; DSGE |
| JEL: | E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:514&r=ger |
| By: | Jinghai Shao; Siming Li; Yong Li |
| Abstract: | Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating transition matrices to the macroeconomic variables. Our method can overcome the shortcomings of the framework of Belkin et al. (1998), and is especially useful in predicting the PD and doing stress testing. Simulation is conducted at the end, which shows that our method can provide more accurate estimate than that obtained by the method of Belkin et al. (1998). |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00448&r=ger |
| By: | Luis Arturo Rosado; Germán Castaño Duque |
| Abstract: | Este artículo revisa el estado del arte del impacto de la educación sobre el desarrollo económico. La educación es considerada una externalidad, por lo cual, su contribución es indirecta a través del aprendizaje tecnológico y la I&D de las empresas. Más escolaridad no significa más desarrollo, automáticamente. Una educación de élite genera mayor desigualdad entre pobres y ricos en el mercado laboral; a cambio, la educación puede aumentar el capital social, el capital de conocimientos y la productividad de las empresas. El escrito concluye que las políticas educativas en los países en desarrollo ganarían en eficacia si escogen flexiblemente opciones de política bien establecidas en la literatura por teorías diferentes; y aporta una taxonomía para combinar estas opciones, focalizarlas y coordinarlas con las metas del desarrollo nacional. |
| Keywords: | Educación, desarrollo económico, productividad, aprendizaje tecnológico, focalización. |
| JEL: | I25 I28 O47 O32 |
| Date: | 2015–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014788&r=ger |
| By: | Richard Cookson (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Owen Cotton-Barrett (University of Oxford, Oxford, UK); Matthew Adler (Duke University, North Carolina, USA); Miqdad Asaria (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Toby Ord (Duke University, North Carolina, USA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a practical measure of individual wellbeing to facilitate the economic evaluation of public policies. We propose to evaluate policies in terms of years of good life gained, in a way that complements and generalises conventional cost-benefit analysis in terms of money. We aim to show how years of good life could be measured in practice by harnessing readily available data on three important elements of individual wellbeing: income, health-related quality of life, and longevity. We also aim to identify the main ethical assumptions needed to use this measure. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chy:respap:132cherp&r=ger |
| By: | Abbate, Angela; Marcellino, Massimiliano |
| Abstract: | We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence intervals, and is better suited at long horizons and in high-volatility periods. The biggest forecast improvements are obtained by modelling time variation in the volatilities of the innovations, rather than in the slope parameters. Moreover, we do not find evidence that parameter time variation helps to unravel exchange rate predictability by macroeconomic fundamentals. Finally, an economic evaluation of the different forecast models reveals that controlling for parameter time variation leads to higher portfolios returns, and to higher utility values for investors. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates,forecasting,density forecasts,BVAR,time-varying parameters |
| JEL: | C11 C53 F31 F37 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:192016&r=ger |
| By: | Veerle Heyvaert |
| Abstract: | This working paper argues that the rise of transnational regulation has a transformative impact on law. It examines the field of transnational environmental regulation to show that its proliferation challenges the continued appropriateness of representations of law as: (i) territorial, (ii) emanating from the state, (iii) composed of a public and private sphere, (iv) constitutive and regulatory in function, and (v) cohesive and regimented. Instead, law is increasingly perceived as (i) delocalised, (ii) flowing from a plurality of sources, (iii) organisationally inchoate, (iv) reflexive and coordinating in function, and (v) polycentric. Together, these shifts in perception amount to a transformation that the paper identifies as the transnationalisation of law. The paper then explores three responses to the transnationalisation of law. It distinguishes responses motivated by a desire to reclaim the traditional conception of law from those that seek to reconstruct law at the transnational level and, thirdly, responses that advocate a context-responsive reconceptualisation of law. Each response, it will be shown, creates a different set of opportunities for and challenges to the relevance of law for transnational regulation. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp242&r=ger |
| By: | Armida Alisjahbana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Viktor Pirmana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits Indonesia’s long run growth trajectory with particular emphasis on the contribution of human capital accumulation and Total Factor Productivity for the period 2000-2035. The study utilizes the growth accounting framework that estimates contribution of growth in capital stock, human capital, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the period after Indonesia’s crisis of 1997- 1998. This study extends an earlier study by Alisjahbana (2009) in methodology, and emphasis in the role of human capital to long term growth trajectory. The period of analysis is concentrated from the year 2000 onwards with the following periodization: 2000-2004 (economic stabilization period); 2005-2009 (President SBY First Administration); 2010-2014 (President SBY Second Administration) and the overall period from 2000-2014. Based on the earlier study, it is expected that the pattern of sources of growth post crisis will be enhanced, in which TFP growth and the role of human capital have become more prominent. Results of the sources of economic growth during the 2000-2014 periods are used to project Indonesia’s long run growth trajectory until 2035. The study utilizes the most recent relevant data sets such as Indonesia’s population projection 2010- 2035. The study also benefits from the most current government long-term policy direction in human resources development as well as human capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Total Factor Productivity, Human Capital, Indonesia 2035 |
| JEL: | O11 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:sdgspp:201617&r=ger |
| By: | Rafal Chomik (University of New South Wales); John Piggott (University of New South Wales); Alan D. Woodland (University of New South Wales); George Kudrna (University of New South Wales); Cagri Kumru (Australian National University and University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | The aging demographic has brought retirement income reform to the center of the policymaking arena. This project has deployed cutting edge modeling techniques to examine the economic impacts of means-testing in the Australian and U.S. contexts. Since 1909, the mainstay of Australia’s retirement policy has been a flat-rate, means-tested age pension. Since the 1990s, this has been supplemented by a mandatory prefunded Defined Contribution type pension plan. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our analysis has found that means testing delivers fewer overall distortions and increased welfare compared to a universal pension offering the same maximum benefit level. It also shows that all means-tested programs generate higher welfare benefits than Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pension programs. The channels through which these outcomes are delivered are complex, but most importantly, for a given individual pension payment, means testing reduces the revenue requirement, thus lowering tax rates on workers. Compared to an OECD average of 9.5% of GDP allocated to retirement payouts, Australia’s annual payouts sit at 2.9% of GDP. Hence, the comparison with many OECD countries reveals that Australian pension arrangements are cheaper both at present and based on future projections. Means-testing can also increase incentives for self-provision. Reduced or zero public benefits payable to the richest groups of retirees improve labor-force participation. Modeling shows that aggregate labor supply can be 1.4% higher with means testing than with a universal pension. The standard means test in Australia applies to both labor earnings and capital income. But eliminating the means test on earnings further enhances mature labor force participation. Mature (65+) labor force participation improves by 24.6% when labor earnings are fully exempted, from a low base. Overall, the study suggests that means testing is an important potential policy reform that has been undersold in past literature. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp337&r=ger |
| By: | Rahmanov, Ramiz; Qasimov, Asif; Tahirova, Gulzar |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the development of the labor market in Azerbaijan from the early 1990s until the early 2010s. The analysis shows that the labor market has a range of positive characteristics such as high labor force participation and employment, low youth and female unemployment, flexibility, and a low share of the “working poor”, all of which can beneficially influence future economic prospects. However, the Azerbaijani labor market also experiences certain undesirable developments, such as an increase in the share of labor with primary education, a shift towards elementary occupations, a high share of self-employment, and an excess of labor cost growth over productivity growth, all of which can threaten further economic development. |
| Keywords: | labor market, labor market flexibility, employment, unemployment, labor force, Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J63 J82 P2 P3 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72368&r=ger |
| By: | Agbelie, Bismark R.D.K. (School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Salike, Nimesh (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | The present paper examines the heterogeneous economic impacts of transportation characteristics, with a consideration of spatial heterogeneity, across Chinese prefecture-level cities. Using data from 237 Chines cities from 2000 to 2012, a random-parameters model was applied to account for the heterogeneity across these cities. The estimation results revealed significant variability across cities, with the computed impacts (elasticity values) of transportation-related features (highway and railway freight volumes, highway passenger volume, urbanization rate, public transit, paved roads, and highway congestion rate) varying significantly across cities. The impacts were mostly positive, except for highway congestion rate. A 1% increase in a city’s highway and railway freight volumes would increase the city’s gross product per capita from 0.0001% to 0.0972% and 0.0001% to 0.0254% across cities in China, respectively. While a 1% increase in highway congestion rate would decrease the city’s gross product per capita by an average of 0.031%. |
| Keywords: | Chinese cities, economic growth, heterogeneity, highway, railway, freight, random-parameters model |
| Date: | 2015–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2015-02&r=ger |
| By: | Jana Mudrovna (Corporate Strategy and Industrial Development research programme, School of Economic and Business Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of alternative sources of financing for industrial development in four emerging countries: Brazil, South Africa, India and China. The paper analyses in particular the mechanisms used to mobilise domestic resources, including savings and foreign exchange reserves as well as channels for their allocation to the real economy. It is argued that these four countries have the capacity to employ fiscal and monetary policies for domestic resource mobilisation; however, due to financialisation, the way that investment is allocated is not always beneficial for industrial development. |
| Keywords: | Self-financing, domestic resource mobilisation, industrial development, Brazil, India, China, South Africa |
| Date: | 2016–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper157&r=ger |
| By: | Riccardo Crescenzi; Kerwin Datu; Simona Iammarino |
| Abstract: | Although one of the core questions in the study of multinational enterprises (MNEs) has been typically that of where their different operations take place, the spatial dimension of MNE investments and functions is still relatively underexplored in the literature. This paper investigates the networks formed by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by applying network analysis techniques drawn from the world city network literature. Data is extracted from the fDi Markets database to describe and analyse the geography of FDI flows between a set of 3,500 cities and towns within the European Union (EU) Member States and their neighbourhood. The paper identifies hierarchical patterns of relations between different types of locations, and gains a finer-scaled appreciation of sectoral and functional specialisations of different regions within Europe. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1616&r=ger |
| By: | Bokan, Nikola; Gerali, Andrea; Gomes, Sandra; Jacquinot, Pascal; Pisani, Massimiliano |
| Abstract: | We incorporate financial linkages in EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area (EA) by including financial frictions and country-specific banking sectors. In this new version of the model, termed EAGLE-FLI (Euro Area and GLobal Economy with Financial LInkages), banks collect deposits from domestic households and cross- country interbank market and raise capital to finance loans issued to domestic households and firms. In order to borrow from local (regional) banks, households use domestic real estate as collateral whereas firms use both domestic real estate and physical capital. These features – together with the full characterization of trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics and with a rich array of financial shocks – allow to properly assess domestic and cross-country macroeconomic effects of financial shocks. Our results support the views that (1) the business cycles in the EA can be driven not only by real shocks, but also by financial shocks, (2) the financial sector can amplify the transmission of (real) shocks, and (3) the financial/banking shocks and the banking sectors can be sources of business cycle asymmetries and spillovers across countries in a monetary union. JEL Classification: E51, E32, E44, F45, F47 |
| Keywords: | banks, DSGE models, econometric models, financial frictions, open-economy macroeconomics, policy analysis |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161923&r=ger |
| By: | Yu Sheng (Crawford School of Public Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the GTAP Static model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business-as-usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship. |
| JEL: | E17 F17 F43 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:wpaper:25672&r=ger |
| By: | KATO Takao; MIYAJIMA Hideaki; OWAN Hideo |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on the effects of employee stock ownership (ESO), using new panel data on Japanese ESO plans for a highly representative sample of publicly-traded firms in Japan (covering more than 75% of all firms listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange) over 1989-2013. Unlike most prior studies, we focus on the effects of changes in varying attributes of existing ESO—the effects on the intensive margin. Our fixed effect estimates show that an increase in the strength of the existing ESO plans measured by stake per employee results in statistically significant productivity gains. Furthermore, such productivity gains are found to lead to profitability gains since wage gains from ESO plans are statistically significant yet rather modest. Our analysis of Tobin's Q suggests that the market tends to view such gains from ESO plans as permanent. We further find that increasing the stake of the existing core participants is more effective in boosting gains from ESO plans than bringing in more employees into the trust. Reassuringly, our key results are found to be robust to the use of instrumental variables to account for possible endogeneity of ESO plans. Finally, we explore possible interplays between ESO plans and firm characteristics such as ownership structure and firm size/age. First, the positive effects on productivity, profitability, wages and Tobin's Q are found to become larger as the proportion of powerful institutional investors and foreign investors rises, implying that the growing importance of such powerful outside shareholders may be reducing the adverse managerial entrenchment effect of ESO plans. Second, productivity gains from ESO plans are found to be more limited for smaller and younger firms. We interpret the finding as evidence in favor of the institutional complementarity view that ESO plans are an integral part of the Japanese High Performance Work System (HPWS)—a complementary cluster of human resource management practices which are more pervasive among larger and older firms in Japan. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16073&r=ger |
| By: | Luc Avonds; Caroline Hambye; Bart Hertveldt; Bernhard Klaus Michel; Bart Van den Cruyce |
| Abstract: | This working paper presents two analytical applications based on the interregional input-output (IO) table for Belgium for the year 2010. The Federal Planning Bureau constructed this table in 2015 in cooperation with the statistical authorities of the country's three Regions (IBSA, SVR and IWEPS). The following standard IO analyses based on applying the Leontief model to the interregional IO table are presented here: the derivation of multipliers for each region and the estimation of regional value added and regional employment generated by domestic final demand and exports. |
| JEL: | D57 C67 R15 |
| Date: | 2016–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1605&r=ger |
| By: | Jan Ditzen (Heriot-Watt University) |
| Abstract: | This article introduces a new Stata command, xtdcce, to estimate a dynamic common correlated effects model with heterogeneous coefficients. The estimation procedure mainly follows Chudik and Pesaran (2015b), in addition the common correlated effects estimator (Pesaran, 2006), as well as the mean group (Pesaran and Smith, 1995) and the pooled mean group estimator (Shin et al., 1999) are supported. Coefficients are allowed to be heterogeneous or homogeneous. In addition instrumental variable regressions and unbalanced panels are supported. The Cross Sectional Dependence Test (CD Test) is automatically calculated and presented in the estimation output. Small sample time series bias can be corrected by jackknife correction or recursive mean adjustment. Examples for empirical applications of all estimation methods mentioned above are given |
| Keywords: | xtdcce; parameter heterogeneity; dynamic panels; cross section dependence; common correlated effects; pooled mean-group estimator; mean-group estimator; instrumental variables; ivreg2 |
| JEL: | C21 C23 C26 C87 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:seecdp:1601&r=ger |
| By: | Aldanondo, Ana M.; Casasnovas, Valero L.; Almansa, M. Carmen |
| Abstract: | Joint cost-environmental efficiency analysis based on the material balance principle (MBP) has an important short-coming, in that the measures of allocative efficiency it produces do not fully integrate environmental and economic outcomes. Their limitation lies in their failure to take into account some decision-making units (DMU) use a combination of inputs that is more environmentally-harmful than that of the least-cost unit, or, more rarely, more costly than that of the least-polluting unit. Input substitution can therefore bring both environmental and economic benefits. This paper develops a method for differentiating between environmental allocative efficiency gains that involve an economic trade-off and those that do not. Drawing insight from the literature on multi-criteria analysis, we extend the MBP approach to new measures of cost-constrained environmental efficiency using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The proposed approach is illustrated by an application geared to assessing the efficiency of a sample of greenhouse horticultural production units in Almeria, Spain. The results for this case show that it is possible to increase environmental allocative efficiency by up to 34 % on average without incurring additional costs. |
| Keywords: | Cross constrained cost-environmental efficiency, material balance condition, nitrogen pollution, green house horticulture |
| JEL: | C61 D24 Q12 Q50 |
| Date: | 2016–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72490&r=ger |
| By: | William A. Pizer; Brian Prest |
| Abstract: | This paper considers how policy updates and trading of regulated quantities over time changes the traditional comparative advantage of prices versus quantities. Quantity regulation that can be traded over time leads firms to set current prices equal to expected future prices. A government seeking to maximize net societal benefits can take advantage of this behavior with a sequence of quantity policy updates that achieves the first best in all periods. Under price regulation where current prices remain fixed until future policy changes occur, no such opportunity exists to achieve the first best, and prices are never preferred. However, if we assume policy updates are driven in part by political "noise" rather than maximizing net societal benefits, the result changes and prices can again be preferred. The comparative advantage now depends the relative variance of noise shocks compared to true cost and benefit shocks. This contrasts sharply with the traditional comparative advantage that depends on the relative slopes of marginal costs and benefits. Applied to climate change, we estimate the comparative advantage of intertemporally tradable quantities (over prices) to be $2 billion over five years. This estimate grows if updates occur less frequently or could be made negative by political noise. |
| JEL: | D62 D92 H41 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22379&r=ger |
| By: | Eva O. Arceo-Gómez; Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez |
| Abstract: | The market environment in which discriminatory firms operate may be a relevant determinant of their extent of discrimination. In this paper we aim at analysing the effect of local labour market conditions on a firm.s decision to discriminate. We use a direct measure of discrimination using online job advertisements which use ascriptive characteristics (such as gender, age, marital status or even physique) to describe their ideal candidates, to which we will refer as explicit discrimination. In theory, the effect of the unemployment rate on discrimination is ambiguous. Using data from over 300,000 online job ads, we find suggestive, though not definitive, evidence that firms explicitly discriminate more when the unemployment rate is higher: a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is correlated with a 0.7 percentage point increase in the probability that an ad is targeted. We also found that in slack labour markets, firms tend to target their ads to men more often than in tight labour markets. However, as the unemployment rate increases firms discriminate less on the basis of beauty. Keywords: discrimination, gender, labour market tightness, job ads, Mexico |
| Keywords: | language policy, Zambia, discrimination, beliefs, education policy, minorities, fractionalization, local languages |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-080&r=ger |
| By: | Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina (Aalto University); Huttunen, Kristiina (Aalto University) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effects of imports on employment and earnings by distinguishing between import competition in final products and firms' use of imports in production (offshoring). We use Finnish worker-firm data merged with product-level trade data. We focus on Chinese imports and instrument them by changes in China's share of world exports to other EU countries. Both types of importing increase the job loss risk for all workers and, in particular, for workers in production occupations. An increase in import competition has larger negative effects than an increase in offshoring. Production workers suffer the largest earnings losses, while for high- skilled workers the wage-effect is positive. |
| Keywords: | offshoring, import competition, employment, earnings |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J63 L23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10033&r=ger |
| By: | Xiaojie Liu; Jim Huangnan Shen; Kent Deng |
| Abstract: | Since Deng Xiaoping’s historic move towards a market economy in post-Mao China during the 1980s, by far, the most challenging task in China’s reforms has been that related to the moribund state-owned sector due to a range of ideological, political, as well as economic reasons. Such reforms have so far been slow and hesitant, moving forward and backward with mixed results. This paper tackles the pros and cons of such reforms and aims to square a rational strategy based on what has been done so far in the state sector. Unlike a narrow approach currently prevailing in the literature, this paper establishes a partial equilibrium model which incorporates the principal-agent problem into a mixed oligopoly model to explore an optimal strategy for state-owned enterprise reforms in China. We argue that ceteris paribus the current illnesses of low efficiency and rent-seeking commonly suffered by China’s state-owned sector can be cured by a two-pronged strategy in which the importance of property rights holds the key. We have identified two ‘Coase Property Right Points’ in the commonly known choices of institutional changes in a reforming Soviet economy to firstly, make it more efficient, and then Pareto optimal. One institutional change is a ‘joint-stock reform’; the other, a ‘full privatisation reform’. In particular, this study regards ‘social-extra policy burdens’ as the main obstacle to improve much needed efficiency in the state sector. Coase Property Right Points show the necessity for a reduction of the social-extra policy burdens vis-à-vis the state sector’s true comparative advantage |
| Keywords: | China; economic reforms; state-owned enterprises; efficiency; comparative advantage; Pareto optimum |
| JEL: | O53 N0 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:67019&r=ger |
| By: | GUIMARÃES BARBOSA, EVALDO |
| Abstract: | This article reports results from an empirical search for the determinants of the very small firms’ survival prospects. Research in the area seems to be excessively concentrated in new firms and fails to include measures related to the investment policies and market strategies of the small firms. Making use of information from balance sheets and perceptual data collected through a survey of a small sample of incumbent small manufacturing enterprises of the traditional sectors in Brazil, the Cox proportional hazard model, new variables and new and unconventional model specifications, the study achieves striking results. The many identified determinants of the small businesses’ hazard rates concern the financing, working capital and production technology policies, the matching of investment and financing maturities, the market strategies, the characteristics of the entrepreneur, business risk, profitability and the economic climate. Results are suggestive that the small manufacturing enterprises’ viability is highly dependent on keeping under control the elements of the running of the businesses whose judicious administration is advocated by the management science. Whether the successful choices are conscious or the corresponding enterprises are selected in the way predicted by the organizational ecology approach remains unsettled. |
| Keywords: | Small firms; Business survival determinants; Business strategies; Cox regression |
| JEL: | L25 M1 M13 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72304&r=ger |
| By: | Clarke,Daniel Jonathan; Wren-Lewis,Liam |
| Abstract: | Those at risk from natural disasters are typically under-protected, possibly because they expect benefactors such as governments and donors to come to their aid. Yet when relief comes, it is often insufficient, delayed or misallocated. Benefactors may wish to commit to provide an efficient amount of fast well-targeted relief, and leave the rest up to recipients, but such commitments are difficult. This article analyses how transferring risk to third-parties such as private insurers may help resolve these commitment problems. Using a simple model of disaster risk finance is used to identify three distinct commitment problems and then show how various properties of risk transfer schemes can help to resolve these problems. The paper illustrates how these commitment problems play out using examples from around the world, and demonstrates where risk transfer schemes seem to have helped in practice. Overall, the findings show that the benefits of such schemes depend on the relative severity of the different commitment problems. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Economics,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Hazard Risk Management,Insurance Law,Natural Disasters |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7720&r=ger |
| By: | Madalina Cristina TOCAN (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | The terms "Entrepreneurship" and "Entrepreneur" became increasingly used worldwide because the entrepreneurship tends to be associated with the economic development and well-being of a nation. Entrepreneurship is a powerful driver of economic growth and job creation: it creates new companies and jobs, opens up new markets, and nurtures new skills and capabilities. According to EU Entrepreneurship Action Plan 2020 “Entrepreneurship makes economies more competitive and innovative and is crucial in achieving the objectives of several European sectorial policies” 'The objective of this paper is to present an analysis of the Romanian entrepreneurial ecosystem and the factors which influence it. Development of the present paper has been carried out through the analysis of the Romanian entrepreneurial business environment, using data supplied by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2014, European Commission and Ernst & Young study “Entrepreneurs Talk”. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, skills and capabilities, entrepreneurial system |
| JEL: | L26 L31 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wp2015:2015-03&r=ger |
| By: | Albina Danilova |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the equilibrium pricing of asset shares in the presence of dynamic private information. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent who observes the firm value, noise traders, and competitive market makers who set share prices using the total order flow as a noisy signal of the insider's information. I provide a characterization of all optimal strategies, and prove existence of both Markovian and non Markovian equilibria by deriving closed form solutions for the optimal order process of the informed trader and the optimal pricing rule of the market maker. The consideration of non Markovian equilibrium is relevant since the market maker might decide to re-weight past information after receiving a new signal. Also, I show that a) there is a unique Markovian equilibrium price process which allows the insider to trade undetected, and that b) the presence of an insider increases the market informational efficiency, in particular for times close to dividend payment. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.00035&r=ger |
| By: | Luisa Natali; Amber Peterman; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | In 2010, the Zambian Ministry of Community Development, Mother and Child Health began implementation of the Child Grant Programme with the goals of reducing extreme poverty and breaking the inter-generational cycle of poverty. The impact of the grant was explored across a range of outcomes for women over the medium term (two to four years). One of the difficult aspects of assessing this evidence is the myriad of indicators used to measure ‘empowerment’. For example, researchers have used indicators ranging from women’s intra-household decision-making to social networks, land or asset ownership, and interpret all these as ‘empowerment’, making it difficult to draw conclusions. The analysis is complemented with qualitative data to understand the meaning women and men place on empowerment in the rural communities. Although more evidence is needed to understand how cash transfers can empower women in Africa, women’s savings and participation in small businesses were seen to have increased, giving them more autonomy over cash and improving their financial standing. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers; women's empowerment; zambia; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inores:inores848&r=ger |
| By: | Elisa Van Waeyenberge (SOAS University of London) |
| Abstract: | The last few decades have seen dramatic changes in development finance. These have been accompanied by a redefinition of the purpose of development cooperation. A strong belief in the potential of private flows to finance development has come to prevail and public or official flows have become increasingly deployed in support of private flows as the newly projected main source of development finance. This has specific implications regarding aid instruments, in particular through ‘blending’ and the attempt to rely increasingly on publicprivate partnerships. As aid and development cooperation become deployed increasingly to mobilize private finance, the core role of public finance for public goods is downplayed. This trend has accelerated as a result of the GFC with its specific implications for fiscal space to support ODA in developed economies. This Working Paper 140 is part of Deliverable D606 on the Financial Implications of the New Relationship between the EU and the Developing World. |
| Keywords: | Official Development Assistance, development cooperation, blending, public private partnerships, Development Finance Institutions |
| Date: | 2016–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper140&r=ger |
| By: | Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez (Department of Quantitative Methods in Economics, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.); Marta Gómez-Puig (Department of Economic Theory, Universitat de Barcelona.); Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (Complutense Institute of International Studies, Universidad Complutense de Madrid.) |
| Abstract: | We analyse volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets. First, we examine the unconditional patterns during the full sample (April 1999-January 2014) using a measure recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2012). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate net directional volatility spillovers for each of the eleven countries under study, and to determine whether core and peripheral markets present differences. Finally, we apply a panel analysis to empirically investigate the determinants of net directional spillovers of this kind. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt crisis; Euro area; Market Linkages; Vector Autoregression; Variance Decomposition. |
| JEL: | C53 E44 F36 G15 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:wpaper:1504&r=ger |
| By: | Iain Begg |
| Abstract: | The European Union budget is small and fulfils only a limited range of functions, yet it provokes regular disputes among the Member States and institutions of the Union. This paper describes the structure of the budget and shows that standard theories, such as fiscal federalism, are not well-suited to analysing how the EU budget operates or the political economy behind it. The paper then looks at how much the UK contributes towards the EU budget and explains why some of the claims made about it in the public discourse are inaccurate. |
| Keywords: | European Union budget; fiscal federalism; UK referendum on EU; EU cohesion policy; common agricultural policy; own resources |
| JEL: | H11 H61 |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67030&r=ger |
| By: | Hanck, Christoph; Prüser, Jan |
| Abstract: | This study uses a Bayesian VAR to demonstrate that the recent house price boom in Germany can be explained by falling interest rates and that higher interest rates are likely suciffient to stop the increase of German house prices. The latter suggests a potential drawback of the current monetary policy of the ECB. The BVAR's prior information shrinks the model parameters towards a parsimonious benchmark. We provide a simulation study to compare the frequentist properties of two useful strategies to select the informativeness of the prior. The study reveals that prior information helps to obtain more precise estimates of impulse response functions in small samples. To choose relevant control variables, we use a new Bayesian variable selection approach by Ding and Karlsson (2014). In addition to impulse responses and variance decompositions, we use a Bayesian conditional forecast to test the hypothetical effect of an increase of interest rates on house prices. This approach has the crucial advantage that it is invariant to the ordering of the variables. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie verwendet ein Bayesianisches VAR (BVAR), um zu zeigen, dass der jüngste Hauspreisboom in Deutschland durch fallende Zinsen erklärt werden kann und dass ein höheres Zinsniveau wahrscheinlich zu einem Ende des Booms führen würde. Dies impliziert einen potentiellen Nachteil der aktuellen Geldpolitik der EZB. Die a priori Information schrumpft die BVAR Modellparameter in Richtung eines naiven Benchmarks. In einer Simulationsstudie vergleichen wir die frequentistischen Eigenschaften von zwei nützlichen Strategien, um den Informationsgehalt des Priors zu wählen. Die Studie zeigt, dass a priori Informationen helfen können, um präzisere Schätzungen von Impuls-Antwort-Funktionen in kleinen Stichproben zu erhalten. Um die relevanten Kontrollvariablen auszuwählen, verwenden wir ein neues Bayesianisches Variablen Auswahlverfahren von Ding und Karlsson (2014). Neben Impuls-Antwort-Funktionen und Varianzzerlegungen benutzen wir Bayesianische bedingte Prognosen, um den hypothetischen Effekt von steigenden Zinsen auf Häuserpreise zu analysieren. Dieser Ansatz hat den entscheidenden Vorteil, nicht von der Anordnung der Variablen abhängig zu sein. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR,shrinkage,house prices |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C53 E37 E43 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:620&r=ger |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Joseph Amankwah-Amoah (Bristol, UK) |
| Abstract: | In spite of the growing consensus of the need to utilise military expenditure to help combat terrorism, our understanding of the threshold at which military expenditure reduces the effect of terrorism stemming from capital flight remains largely underexplored. We employed a panel data of 37 African countries from 1996-2010 and determined that the thresholds are apparent exclusively in Quantile Regressions with military expenditure thresholds ranging from: 4.224 to 5.612 for domestic terrorism, 5.734 to 7.363 for unclear terrorism and 4.710 to 6.617 for total terrorism. No thresholds are apparent in transnational terrorism related regressions. Depending on the terrorist target, the findings broadly show that a critical mass of between 4.224 and 7.363 of military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is needed to reverse the effects of terrorism stemming from capital flight. Implications for public policy are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Capital flight; military expenditure; terrorism; Africa |
| JEL: | C50 D74 F23 N40 O55 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/018&r=ger |
| By: | Loretta MALVAROSA (NISEA, Fishery and Aquaculture Research Organisation, Italy); Arina MOTOVA (Seafish Industry Authority, UK); Ralf DOERING (Thünen-Institut für Ostseefischerei, Hamburg, Germany); Arantza MURILLAS (AZTI Tecnalia, Bilbao, Spain); Leyre GOTHI (Thünen-Institut für Ostseefischerei, Hamburg, Germany); Claire MACHER (IFREMER, UMR AMURE, Brest, France.); Sigrid LEUTHA (IFREMER, Nantes, France.); Rasmus Nielsen (DTU Aqua, University of Denmark, Denmark); Gunnar HARALDSON (IoES, University of Iceland, Reykjavik); Paolo ACCADIA (NISEA, Fishery and Aquaculture Research Organisation, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The main aim of the SOCIOEC project was to assess new management options of the CFP and improve methodology of the Impact Assessment (IA). The project covered several major research areas, affecting decision making process in fisheries: definition of fisheries management objectives, possible incentives and behavior of the sector under different management options, government structure and stakeholder’s involvement, IA of different management options. The analysis covered almost all major EU fishing regions and fisheries, which allowed to take into account the main features of different management options implemented EU-wide. The aim of the paper is to provide a synthetic overview of the major results of the main results of the project and special attention will be given to the improvement of the IA methodology, which following sustainability impact assessment concept in fishery includes not only integrated analysis of three sustainability dimensions, but also “soft†form of analysis and stakeholders involvement as a crucial part of the process. The rating methodology developed under the SOCIOEC provides possibility to assess the results of different policy options in terms of acceptability, effectiveness, coherence and efficiency.. |
| Keywords: | : Impact assessment, Fishery Management, Qualitative Analysis |
| JEL: | Q22 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irf:wpaper:016&r=ger |
| By: | Nicola Branson (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Tanya Byker (Department of Economics, Middlebury College) |
| Abstract: | The rollout of the National Adolescent Friendly Clinic Initiative (NAFCI) serves as a natural experiment to study the causes and consequences of early teen child bearing. Geolinking residence histories to the rollout, we estimate that living near a NAFCI clinic during adolescence delayed early childbearing by 1.2 years on average. Adolescents who had access to NAFCI completed more years of schooling and, consistent with increased human capital investments, earn substantially higher wages as young adults. Children born to women who had access to youth-friendly services as teens show substantial health advantages, indicating a strong intergenerational benefit of delayed childbearing. |
| Keywords: | teenage childbearing, maternal and child outcomes, youth friendly reproductive health services |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:166&r=ger |
| By: | Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary Research findings of the latest round of the wiiw-GDN project on development in the Balkans are surveyed. Historical and structural deficiencies of development in the Balkan countries are discussed in detail with emphasis of the role of investment, integration, and structural and policy deficiencies. These structural features have led to policy challenges in particular after the crisis of 2008-2009. Which are investment- and export-led growth, which implies slower growth of consumption than national savings; slow growth of wages and incomes over the period of structural adjustment and for reasons of prevention of real exchange rate appreciation; and free access to foreign markets due to slower recovery of domestic demand. With the policy framework biased towards rigidity, and having in mind the needed structural adjustment, development policies that are compatible with them are infrastructure, physical and institutional, investments supported by the EU and regionally; trade integration – regional, European, and within the World Trade Organisation; financial and entrepreneurial cooperation within the manufacturing networks in the EU primarily; sustainable macroeconomic policies especially when it comes to external balances. A list of studies and of the relevant literature is included. |
| Keywords: | development, Balkans, infrastructure, crisis, integration, state failure, investment, consumption |
| JEL: | N14 N74 O14 O18 O20 P27 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:17&r=ger |
| By: | Peter Cappelli; Martin Conyon |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates employee performance appraisals using data from a single US firm between 2001 and 2007. We find that performance appraisals are both informative and drive important components of the employment contract. We find that employee appraisal scores vary considerably both between and within individuals over time. In addition, we show that employee performance appraisal scores are related to a range of important employment outcomes, including merit pay and bonuses, promotions, demotions and dismissals, as well as employee quits. |
| JEL: | J33 J41 J63 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22400&r=ger |
| By: | Alfonso Arpaia (European Commission); Aron Kiss (European Commission); Balazs Palvolgyi (European Commission); Alessandro Turrini (European Commission, IZA and Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses macroeconomic determinants of labour mobility and its role in the adjustment to asymmetric shocks. First, the paper develops stylised facts of mobility at the national and sub-national levels in the EU. Then, it explores the macroeconomic determinants of bilateral migration flows. Econometric evidence suggests that labour mobility increases significantly when a country joins the EU. While euro area membership seems not to be associated with an overall rise in the magnitude of mobility flows, workers do appear more ready to move from countries where unemployment is high to those where it is lower. Thirdly, the paper looks at mobility as a channel of economic adjustment by means of a VAR analysis in the vein of Blanchard and Katz (1992). Results indicate that mobility absorbs about a quarter of an asymmetric shock within 1 year. Movements in response to shocks have almost doubled since the introduction of the euro. Real wages have also become more responsive to asymmetric shocks during the same period. |
| Keywords: | Labour mobility; geographic mobility; migration; gravity; adjustment; asymmetric shocks; optimal currency areas; European Union |
| JEL: | J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:396&r=ger |
| By: | Hatcher, Michael |
| Abstract: | An overlapping generations model is set out in which monetary policy matters for distortionary taxes because unanticipated inflation has real wealth effects on households with nominal government debt. The model is used to study the tax burden under inflation and nominal GDP targeting. Nominal GDP targeting makes taxes less volatile than inflation targeting but raises average taxes. With a quadratic loss function, the expected tax burden is minimized with only indexed debt under inflation targeting, but with both indexed and nominal debt under nominal GDP targeting. Nominal GDP targeting lowers the tax burden relative to inflation targeting (except at very high indexation shares), but this conclusion hinges on risk aversion, productivity persistence and the loss function for the tax burden. |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stn:sotoec:1604&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This publication is part of a series of six country reports on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and higher education in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Each report presents current arrangements and initiatives in the respective country’s skills development strategies. These are complemented by critical analyses to determine key issues, challenges, and opportunities for innovative strategies toward global competitiveness, increased productivity, and inclusive growth. The emphasis is to make skills training more relevant, efficient, and responsive to emerging domestic and international labor markets. The reports were finalized in 2013 under the Australian AID-supported Phase 1 of Subproject 11 (Innovative Strategies for Accelerated Human Resource Development) of Regional Technical Assistance 6337 (Development Partnership Program for South Asia). |
| Keywords: | Education, South Asia, TVET, higher education, global competitiveness, Human Resource Development, skills training |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt146956&r=ger |
| By: | Stiglic, M.; Agatz, N.A.H.; Savelsbergh, M.W.P.; Gradisar, M. |
| Abstract: | Seamless integration of ride-sharing and public transit may offer fast, reliable, and affordable transfer to and from transit stations in suburban areas thereby enhancing mobility of residents. We investigate the potential benefits of such a system, as well as the ride-matching technology required to support it, by means of an extensive computational study. |
| Keywords: | ride-sharing, public transit, mobility, sustainable transportation |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureri:93121&r=ger |
| By: | Elie Bouri (USEK Business School, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Jounieh, Lebanon); Luis A. Gil-Alana (University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); David Roubaud (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the emergence of Bitcoin as a speculative financial investment, the purpose of this paper is to examine the persistence in the level and volatility of Bitcoin price, accounting for the impact of structural breaks. Using parametric and semiparametric techniques, we find strong evidence in favour of a permanency of the shocks and lack of mean reversion in the level series. We also reveal evidence of structural changes in the dynamics of Bitcoin. After accounting for the structural breaks in the level series, evidence of mean reversion is uncovered in some cases. Further analyses show evidence of a long memory in the two measures of volatility (absolute and the squared returns), whereas some cases of short memory are revealed in the squared returns series in particular. Practical implications are discussed on the inefficiency in the Bitcoin market and its importance for Bitcoin users and investors. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, Long memory, Structural Breaks |
| JEL: | C22 G1 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201654&r=ger |
| By: | Chan, Mark K.; Kwok, Simon |
| Abstract: | We develop an alternative estimator for policy evaluation in the presence of interactive fixed effects. It extends Pesaran (2006)’s two-stage procedure to a difference-in- differences-type program evaluation framework, and extracts principal components from the control group to form factor proxies. Consistency and asymptotic distributions are derived under stationary factors, as well as nonstationary factors with any integration order. Simulation exercises demonstrate excellent performance of our estimator relative to existing methods. We present empirical results from microeconomic and macroeconomic applications. We find that our estimator generates the most robust treatment effect estimates, and our weights for control group units deliver strong economic interpretation regarding the nature of the underlying factors. |
| Keywords: | Program evaluation; Interactive fixed effects; Difference-in-differences |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2016-11&r=ger |
| By: | Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Arnab K. Basu (Cornell University); Nancy H. Chau (Cornell University and Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano); Devashish Mitra (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | The various channels through which a reduction in the cost of offshoring can improve wages in a developed country are by now well understood. But does a similar reduction in the offshoring cost also benefit workers in the world's factories in developing countries? Using a parsimonious two-country model of offshoring we find very nuanced results. These include cases where wages monotonically improve or worsen as well as those where wages exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship in response to parametric reductions in the cost of offshoring. We identify qualitative conditions under which wages and welfare increase or decrease in the developing world as a result of a reduction in offshoring costs. Since global welfare always rises with an improvement in offshoring technology, we find that there is a role for a wage tax or a minimum wage in the developing country. We derive the optimal levels of such policies. |
| Keywords: | Wages, International Offshoring, Wage Tax, Minimum Wage |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F16 F66 O19 O24 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:394&r=ger |
| By: | Köhler, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Our analysis finds that despite the growing number, the majority of savings banks currently do not make any payouts. Furthermore, savings banks distribute only a small part of their net profit to the shareholders. This means that they can still build up capital even if they make payouts. Savings banks also hold significantly more capital than is called for by the regulatory framework. Finally, the regression analysis shows that savings banks that have less capital distribute profits to their shareholders considerably less frequently. This correlation has intensified since 2009, even though the Savings Banks Acts (Sparkassengesetze) were relaxed in individual federal states. All in all, our results therefore indicate that payouts do not currently pose a threat to the capital adequacy of most savings banks. |
| Keywords: | savings banks,distributions,capital adequacy |
| JEL: | G21 G29 G35 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:242016&r=ger |
| By: | Alexander Karminsky |
| Abstract: | The Basel II Accords have sparked increased interest in the development of approaches based on internal ratings systems and have initiated the elaboration of models for remote ratings forecasts based on external ones as part of Risk Management and Early Warning Systems. This article evaluates the peculiarities of current ratings systems and addresses specific issues of development of econometrical rating models for emerging market companies. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.02422&r=ger |
| By: | Mostafa Beshkar; Adam S. Chilton |
| Abstract: | After not applying countervailing duty (CVD) law against non-market economies (NMEs) for two decades, the United State opened a CVD investigation against China in 2006. After extensive litigation, a U.S. appeals court ruled that it was illegal to apply CVD law to NMEs. While that ruling was being appealed, the U.S. Congress passed legislation stipulating that the application of CVD law to NMEs starting in 2006 was legal. China challenged this legislation at the WTO. The dispute resulted in a ruling that left open the possibility that the legislation violated the GATT, as well as a finding that the United States must investigate its application of countervailing and antidumping duties against China. This dispute has implications for a number of current WTO debates including: whether Appellate Body rulings create binding precedent, whether the Appellate Body should have authority to remand cases, and what information should be required in panel requests. |
| Keywords: | Non-Market Economies, Countervailing and Antidumping Duties, Precedents, Remand Authority, World Trade Organization |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/68&r=ger |
| By: | Oriana Bandiera; Luigi Guiso; Andrea Prat; Raffaella Sadun |
| Abstract: | We exploit a unique combination of administrative sources and survey data to study the match between firms and managers. The data includes manager characteristics, such as risk aversion and talent; firm characteristics, such as ownership; detailed measures of managerial practices relative to incentives, dismissals and promotions; and measurable outcomes, for the firm and for the manager. A parsimonious model of matching and incentive provision generates an array of implications that can be tested with our data. Our contribution is twofold. We disentangle the role of risk-aversion and talent in de-termining how firms select and motivate managers. In particular, risk-averse managers are matched with firms whose compensation scheme depends less on performance. We also show that empirical findings linking governance, incentives, and performance that are typically observed in isolation, can instead be interpreted within a simple unified matching framework. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:57271&r=ger |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente; Jorge Onrubia |
| Abstract: | La presente nota es un comentario crítico al trabajo del mismo título presentado por Luis Ayala en una reciente jornada sobre la desigualdad en España celebrada en FEDEA. Aunque el autor documenta de forma convincente un muy preocupante aumento de la desigualdad durante estos últimos años de crisis, a nuestro entender su valoración de la situación comparada de nuestro país es excesivamente pesimista y su diagnóstico de las causas del problema resulta poco convincente y prejuzga de forma muy arriesgada el diseño de las políticas necesarias para paliarlo. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2016-25&r=ger |
| By: | César Giraldo |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo consta de dos partes. En la primera se hace una crítica a la política social contemporánea, la cual tiene dos ejes: Lucha contra la pobreza y aseguramiento. El discurso afirma que gasto social se debe dirigir hacia los más pobres y que la mejor forma de ayudarlos consiste en dotarlos de activos para se puedan insertar al mercado y disfrutar de los beneficios del crecimiento económico. Ello se debe combinar con el manejo social del riesgo, permitiendo que los individuos puedan administrar sus seguros a través del mercado. La crítica a dicha política se basa en que promueve el individualismo y la ciudadanía invertida: Se hace necesario ser un fracasado social para acceder a prestaciones sociales gratuitas. En la segunda parte de este trabajo, se afirma que es necesario redefinir el sujeto social de la política social. No es el pobre ni el trabajador asalariado. Dicho trabajador hoy no representa al trabajador contemporáneo, ese trabajador está en la Economía Popular urbana. |
| Keywords: | pobreza, administración pública, individualismo, economía popular, emprendimiento. |
| JEL: | A14 H41 H53 I32 J46 J81 |
| Date: | 2016–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000178:014705&r=ger |
| By: | Eduardo A. Haddad; Jesus P. Mena-Chalco, Otávio J.G. Sidone |
| Abstract: | Este artigo apresenta os resultados de um estudo sobre as potencialidades da utilização dos dados curriculares derivados das informações da Plataforma Lattes como ferramentas para avaliação do desempenho científico de pesquisadores. Um novo indicador, denominado “índice multidimensional de desempenho científico” (IMDC), é proposto considerando um amplo conjunto de indicadores bibliométricos que buscam captar diferentes formas da produção acadêmica dos atuais pesquisadores vinculados à pós-graduação em Economia no Brasil. Os resultados preliminares permitem evidenciar uma tipologia de pesquisadores considerando suas diferentes estratégias de atuação. Economistas com maior impacto na profissão adotam uma estratégia caracterizada por um equilíbrio entre qualidade, quantidade e colaboração científica. |
| Keywords: | Graduate programs; economics; rankings of economists; scholarly mapping; social networks; sociology of economics; Brazil |
| JEL: | A14 I23 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon10&r=ger |
| By: | Bruno Bonizzi (SOAS, University of London); Jan Toporowski (SOAS, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the role of emerging and developing economies as providers of finance to the European Union. In particular it explores the evolution of foreign exchange reserves accumulated in Euro, and direct investment to the European Union from emerging and developing countries. It is argued that such financial flows are unlikely to promote substantial economic development in European countries. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves, European Union, Developing Countries |
| JEL: | F31 F23 |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper129&r=ger |
| By: | Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Tien Manh Vu (International Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | In literature, there is limited direct evidence regarding the effect of health insurance coverage on firm performance and worker productivity. In this paper, we study the impacts of health insurance on medium and large-scale domestic private firms' performance and productivity in Vietnam, using a large firm level census dataset. We deploy propensity-score matching methods, and find statistically positive health insurance effects on both aggregate profit and profit per worker for both complying and non-complying medium and large-scale firms. Given the full sample results, we recommend an improvement in government monitoring as one of the important policy options to induce medium and large-scale firms to contribute to health insurance premiums for their employees. |
| Keywords: | Health insurance, Medium and large-scale firms, Propensity-score matching, Vietnam |
| JEL: | D22 I13 I15 I18 O25 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:16e007&r=ger |
| By: | Adriaan R. Soetevent (University of Groningen, The Netherlands); Tadas Bruzikas (University of Groningen, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Do the choices of consumers who search for a product's best price exhibit risk neutral, risk averse or loss averse risk attitudes? We study how in a problem of sequential search with costless recall the relation between a consumer's willingness to pay for continued search and the level of price uncertainty depends on her risk preferences. Independent of the current best price, an increase in price uncertainty encourages continued search when consumers are risk neutral. However, we prove that theory predicts an inversion when consumers are either risk or loss averse. In those cases, an increase in price uncertainty only increases the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) for continued search if the current best price is sufficiently low. We subsequently use this observation in an empirical test to identify between different risk preferences in a stylized problem of sequential search. In line with the inversion, we find that a reduction in price uncertainty decreases the WTP for continued search when the current best price is low but increases the WTP when it is high. While at odds with the assumption of risk neutrality, this finding is consistent with models of consumer risk and/or loss aversion. Moreover, the model parameters of risk and loss aversion that lead to the best empirical fit have values similar to those estimated for other decision domains. |
| Keywords: | consumer search; risk aversion; loss aversion; price uncertainty |
| JEL: | D11 D12 D83 M31 |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160049&r=ger |
| By: | Hills, Timothy; Nakata, Taisuke; Schmidt, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Even when the policy rate is not at the effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained by the ELB in the future lowers today’s inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, we find that the tail risk induced by the ELB causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 percent by as much as 45 basis points at the economy’s risky steady state. Our model suggests that achieving the inflation target may be more difficult now than before the Great Recession, if the recent ELB experience has led households and firms to revise up their estimate of the ELB frequency. JEL Classification: E32, E52 |
| Keywords: | liquidity trap, zero lower bound |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161913&r=ger |
| By: | Fernandes,Ana Margarida; Hillberry,Russell Henry; Berg,Claudia N. |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of trade facilitation as an area of trade and development policy, there have been very few impact evaluations of specific trade facilitation reforms. This paper offers an evaluation of in-house clearance, a reform that allows qualified firms in Serbia to clear customs from within their own warehouse rather than at the customs office. The pooled synthetic control method applied here offers a novel solution to many of the empirical challenges that frustrate efforts to evaluate trade facilitation reforms. The method is used to estimate causal impacts on trade outcomes for 21 firms that adopted in-house clearance for import shipments. The program compressed the distribution of clearance times for adopting firms, but the estimated effects on median clearance times, inspection rates, and import value were not statistically significant. Tests for heterogeneous program impact do not indicate that the program affected adopting firms differently. Overall, the results suggest that the most evident benefit of the program for participating firms is reduced uncertainty about clearance times. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Science Education,Trade Policy,Microfinance,Scientific Research&Science Parks |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7708&r=ger |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.); Chia-Ping Liu (Institute of Statistics National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan.) |
| Abstract: | The agricultural and energy industries are closely related, both biologically and financially. The paper discusses the relationship and the interactions on price and volatility, with special focus on the covolatility spillover effects for these two industries. The interaction and covolatility spillovers or the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset, between the energy and agricultural industries is the primary emphasis of the paper. Although there has already been significant research on biofuel and biofuel-related crops, much of the previous research has sought to find a relationship among commodity prices. Only a few published papers have been concerned with volatility spillovers. However, it must be emphasized that there have been numerous technical errors in the theoretical and empirical research, which needs to be corrected. The paper not only considers futures prices as a widely-used hedging instrument, but also takes an interesting new hedging instrument, ETF, into account. ETF is regarded as index futures when investors manage their portfolios, so it is possible to calculate an optimal dynamic hedging ratio. This is a very useful and interesting application for the estimation and testing of volatility spillovers. In the empirical analysis, multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK models are estimated for comparing patterns of covolatility spillovers. The paper provides a new way of analyzing and describing the patterns of covolatility spillovers, which should be useful for the future empirical analysis of estimating and testing covolatility spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | Energy and agriculture, Covolatility spillovers, Spot prices, Futures prices, Exchange traded funds, Biofuels, Optimal dynamic hedging. |
| JEL: | C32 C58 G13 Q14 Q42 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1611&r=ger |
| By: | Zacchia, Giulia |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to contribute to the analysis of recent changes in Italian economic thought by examining them from a gender perspective. Following a popular international trend, the use of bibliometric indicators for the purposes of personnel selection has been introduced in Italy, creating a more competitive environment heavily founded on rigid standardized indexes of “scientific productivity”. In this context, recent studies analyze gender differences by considering the willingness to enter competition. By contrast, we aim at describing what were the strategies adopted by men and women economists in terms of research fields, at different stages of their careers. We find that women progressively have converged to the research interests of their male colleagues. Specifically, we find that the decrease in non-mainstream publications, in particular in the fields of heterodox approaches and history of economic thought, is larger among female economists. Systematic follow-up is essential, in particular the creation of specific committee or observatory embodying a gender perspective in all aspects of the academic and research activity in economics in Italy. |
| Keywords: | recent economic thought; women; research evaluation |
| JEL: | A14 B40 J16 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72279&r=ger |
| By: | Dhillon, Amrita; Krishnan, Pramila; Patnam, Manasa; Perroni, Carlo |
| Abstract: | The literature on the effects of natural resource abundance on economic growth is converging to the view that institutions play a central role. In this paper, we exploit the break up of three of the biggest Indian states, comprising areas with some of the largest endowments of natural resources in the country, to explore how the link between electoral accountability and natural resource abundance can explain differences in outcomes. Our theoretical framework shows that while states inheriting a larger share of natural resources after break up are potentially richer, the spatial distribution of these natural resources within these state can worsen economic outcomes by lowering electoral accountability. We employ a sharp regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of secession and concentrated resources on growth and inequality at the sub-regional level, using data on satellite measurements of night-time lights. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, the economic effect of secession is generally favourable. However, states that inherit a large fraction of mineral rich constituencies experience worse outcomes. This may be accounted for by lower electoral accountability in those areas. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Federalism; Natural Resources and Economic Performance; Political Secession |
| JEL: | C72 D72 H77 O13 O43 Q34 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11377&r=ger |
| By: | María Eugenia Bonilla-Chacín; Roberto Iglesias; Agustina Suaya; Claudia Trezza; Claudia Macías |
| Abstract: | Mexico faces a major health and economic burden due to the large and increasing number of adults and children suffering from overweight and obesity. More than two-thirds of adults are suffering from overweight or obesity and a third from obesity. The country has the second largest adult obesity rate among OECD countries. Obesity is one of the main risk factors for the development of some non-communicable diseases, especially diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, which are the main causes of healthy life years lost in Mexico. Since these conditions require extended and continuous contact with the health sector and generate large productivity losses, due to premature deaths and workers absenteeism, they also negatively impact the economy of the country. These taxes were not enacted in isolation, but were part of a comprehensive strategy to prevent and control obesity, overweight and diabetes. In addition to fiscal policy and regulation, this strategy included other health promotion and prevention interventions as well as measures to ensure better access to effective health care services. These taxes were not only part of the strategy to prevent obesity, but were also part of a comprehensive fiscal reform aimed at increasing tax revenue and reducing the over reliance on oil in government revenues. It is important to continuously monitor the reduction in consumption and consumption substitution (to healthy or unhealthy substitutes). Fiscal policy used for health promotion purposes is still a controversial issue. These reforms face major risks. They tend to affect a relatively small group of powerful and concentrated businesses with the capacity to fight back. In addition, if the tax is small and there is potential for consumption substitution within the taxed products (that is, cheaper brands, cheaper packages within the same brand, or through promotions) the impact of the tax on the consumption of the unhealthy good could be small. |
| Keywords: | risks, consumption, bottling, workers, cola, income, value, prevention, calories, price elasticity of demand, health outcomes, elasticity of demand, elasticity, health ... See More + care, fiscal policy, excise tax, beverages, consumers, juices, health, nutrition, price, tax, food, tax revenue, beverage industry, regression analysis, risk factors, public health, taxation, knowledge, diabetes, goods, cardiovascular diseases, comprehensive strategy, obesity, children, corn, sugars, isolation, soft drinks, communication, strategy, families, price elasticity, outcomes, foods, implementation, prices, health promotion, economic research, bottled water, taxes, sugar |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hnpkbs:106654&r=ger |
| By: | Yuki Shigeta |
| Abstract: | We study dynamic mean-variance optimization problems with multiple priors. We introduce two types of multiple priors, the priors for expected returns and the priors for covariances. Our framework suggests that the global minimumvariance portfolio is optimal when the investor strongly doubts the correctness of the estimated expected returns, and the equally weighted portfolio is optimal when the investor strongly doubts the correctness of the estimated covariances. From the back tests, we find that for some data sets, the strategy that invests in the global minimum-variance portfolio or the equally weighted portfolio considering the market condition is more efficient than the other mean-variance efficient portfolios. |
| Keywords: | Robust mean-variance optimization; dynamic portfolio selections; naive diversification; global minimum-variance portfolio; mean-variance efficiency. |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-16-004&r=ger |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver; Müller-Kock, Anika |
| Abstract: | Recent allegations from participants of the FIA Formula One World Championship (F1) suggest that the promoter of F1 (possibly together with the sports association) violates European competition law in two ways. First, it alleged-ly abuses its market power by deducting an inappropriate high share from the rev-enues of the collective sale of media rights in order to boost the profits of its pri-vate equity parent company (vertical allocation of media revenue). Second, it alleg-edly forms a cartel with selected top teams at the detriment of smaller teams by providing both unjustified extra payments to these teams and enforcing a heavily biased horizontal allocation of media revenues, benefitting the cartel teams. Pro-fessional sports championships typically receive common revenue, for instance, from trademark rights and marketing, but often also from the sale of broadcasting and other media rights. This common revenue needs to be allocated in two ways: (i) vertical allocation between the sports authority and the participants, and (ii) hor-izontal allocation among the participants. Different professional sports champion-ships employ vastly differing schemes for both types of allocation. In this paper, we present an empirical assessment whether the current antitrust allegations against F1 may be valid. We employ concentration measures from empirical economics, like the Hirshman-Herfindahl-Index (HHI), the concentration ratio and the standard de-viation in order to assess different allocation schemes from different commercial sports. With the help of these indices we show that the allocation scheme em-ployed in F1 considerably differs from such used in other professional sports championships. We find the empirical picture to be consistent with an anticompetitive interpretation of F1 media revenue structures and policies. We conclude that there is merit in starting an in-depth antitrust investigation of Formula One motor racing, which would also represent an opportunity for the European Commission to cor-rect earlier mistakes. |
| Keywords: | competition,antitrust,abuse of market power,sports economics,formula one motor racing,sports business,media revenue,football |
| JEL: | K21 L12 L40 L83 Z20 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:102&r=ger |
| By: | Steinkraus, Arne |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of carbon leakage on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using satellite nighttime light data. I show that nighttime lighting is an important variable for estimating carbon dioxide emissions that is superior to other existing indicators and covers all countries in the world. I find evidence of an inverted-U shaped relationship between light and, thus, greenhouse gas emissions and income, with a turning point at approximately US $50,000. However, the relationship is primarily driven by changes in the structure of international trade, implying strong carbon leakage effects. Consequently, environmental regulations that become operative in only one part of the world may fail without global coordination. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve,Carbon Leakage,Nighttime Lighting |
| JEL: | F18 F64 Q50 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tbswps:15&r=ger |
| By: | Montenegro, María; Mohapatra, Sandeep; Swallow, Brent |
| Abstract: | Women’s land rights are increasingly advocated as an empowerment tool to spur development outcomes. However, empirical evidence of this relationship is limited. In this study we use data from peasant communities in rural Peru to explore the effect of the intra-household allocation of inherited land on women’s empowerment. Empowerment is modeled as a latent variable measured by different influence indicators using a Generalized Structural Equation approach. We draw on Item Response Theory (IRT) to estimate difficulty and discrimination parameters which can inform policymakers about the impact of empowerment policies on women’s types of influences within their households. The empirical approach is consistent with empowerment’s latent and multidimensional nature and pays attention to endogeneity issues often present in other empirical studies. We find that although women’s land rights increase empowerment, the intra-household allocation of land determines the magnitude of this impact. |
| Keywords: | Women's empowerment, item response theory, structural equation modeling, land rights, International Development, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:239851&r=ger |
| By: | Anton Tsoy (EIEF) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model of decentralized asset markets with both search delays and endogenous bargaining delays arising in the limit of almost public information about the asset quality. The model has several implications for liquidity and prices. First, conditional on the public information, the liquidity is U-shaped in the quality and assets in the middle of the quality range may not be traded at all. Second, search and bargaining frictions have opposite effects on the market liquidity showing that transparency, while welfare improving, may also hurt the market liquidity. Third, the substitutability of different asset classes leads to flights-to-liquidity during periods of market uncertainty and reveals adverse effects of gradual transparency policies. Finally, the paper derives the effect of asset liquidity, market liquidity and market tightness on asset prices. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:8&r=ger |
| By: | Chowdhury, Shyamal (School of Economics, University of Sydney); Krause, Annabelle (IZA, Bonn); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of drinking arsenic contaminated water on mental health. Drinking water with an unsafe arsenic level for a prolonged period can lead to arsenicosis and associated illness. Based on rich and newly collected household survey data from Bangladesh, we construct several measures for arsenic contamination that include the actual arsenic level in the respondent's tube well (TW), and past institutional arsenic test results as well as their physical and mental health. To account for potential endogeneity of water source, we take advantage of the quasi-randomness of arsenic distribution and employ the pre-1999 use of TW as an instrument and structural modelling as alternatives for robustness checks. We find that suffering from an arsenicosis symptom is strongly negatively related to mental health, even more so than from other illnesses. Calculations of the costs of arsenic contamination reveal that the average individual would need to be compensated for suffering from an arsenicosis symptom by an amount of money over 10 percent of annual household income. |
| Keywords: | Arsenic, Water Pollution, Mental Health, Subjective Well-Being, Environment, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | Q53 I10 I31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2016037&r=ger |
| By: | Marco Kools; Louise Stoll |
| Abstract: | What are the characteristics of a school as learning organisation? This paper should be seen as an attempt to work towards a common understanding of the school as learning organisation concept that is both solidly founded in the literature and is recognisable to all parties involved, i.e. educators, policy makers, parents and others alike. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the learning organisation literature in general, and within a school context. It identifies and operationalises the characteristics of the school as learning organisation in an integrated model that consists of seven overarching ‘action-oriented’ dimensions: 1) developing and sharing a vision centred on the learning of all students; 2) creating and supporting continuous learning opportunities for all staff; 3) promoting team learning and collaboration among staff; 4) establishing a culture of inquiry, innovation and exploration; 5) establishing embedded systems for collecting and exchanging knowledge and learning; 6) learning with and from the external environment and larger learning system; and 7) modelling and growing learning leadership. The dimensions and underlying key characteristics are intended to provide practical guidance on how schools can transform themselves into a learning organisation and ultimately enhance student outcomes. Quelles sont les caractéristiques d’une école comme structure d’apprentissage? Ce document devrait être considéré comme une tentative d’obtenir une compréhension commune du concept de l’école comme structure d’apprentissage, qui est à la fois solidement ancré dans la littérature et reconnaissable par toutes les parties prenantes, c’est-à-dire éducateurs, décideurs politiques, parents et autres parties prenantes. Le document fournit une analyse détaillée de la littérature sur la structure d’apprentissage en général, et au sein d’un contexte scolaire. Il identifie et opérationnalise les caractéristiques de l’école comme structure d’apprentissage en un model intégré qui consiste en sept dimensions globales axées sur les actions: 1) développer et partager une vision centrée sur l’apprentissage de tous les étudiants; 2) créer et encourager des opportunités de formation en continu pour tout membre du personnel; 3) promouvoir l’apprentissage en équipe et la collaboration entre les membres du personnel ; 4) établir une culture de recherche, d’innovation et d’investigation; 5) établir un système intégré de collecte et d’échange de connaissances et d’enseignements; 6) apprendre avec et depuis l’environnement externe et un système éducatif plus large; 7) façonner et développer le leadership dans l’enseignement. Les dimensions et caractéristiques fondamentales sous-jacentes ont pour but de fournir une aide pratique sur la façon dont les écoles peuvent s’auto-transformer en une structure d’apprentissage et ainsi améliorer les résultats des étudiants. |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:137-en&r=ger |
| By: | Bobba, Matteo; Frisancho, Veronica |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of perceived academic ability in shaping curricular choices in secondary school. We design and implement a field experiment that provides individualized feedback on performance in a mock version of the admission test taken to gain entry into high school in the metropolitan area of Mexico City. This intervention reduces the gap between expected and actual performance, shrinks the variance of the individual ability distributions and shifts stated preferences over high school tracks, with better performing students choosing more academically-oriented options. Such a change in application portfolios affects placement outcomes within the school assignment system, while it does not seem to entail any short-term adjustment costs in terms of high school performance. Guided by a simple model in which Bayesian agents choose school tracks based on their perceived ability distribution, we empirically document the interplay between variance reductions and mean changes in beliefs enabled by the information intervention. |
| Keywords: | information, Bayesian updating, biased beliefs, school choice. |
| JEL: | D83 I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30494&r=ger |
| By: | Marc Chesney; Pierre Lasserre; Bruno Troja |
| Abstract: | Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing CO2 emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct negative impacts on a country’s Gross Domestic Product, but costs also arise from temperature increases due to inaction. This paper analyzes the trade-offs between these costs in a real options model with tipping points and the possibility of major catastrophe. We determine the optimal timing and magnitude of mitigation in that framework. Mitigation et adaptation constituent deux façons de lutter contre le changement climatique. En réduisant les émissions de CO2, la mitigation s’attache à empêcher ou ralentir le changement climatique; l’adaptation consiste à en réduire les conséquences. Ces deux types de mesures ont des coûts en termes de produit national brut. Le changement climatique et l’inaction ou des mesures insuffisantes sont également coûteux. Dans cet article nous étudions les arbitrages entre ces coûts dans le cadre d’un modèle d’options réelles comportant des points de basculement climatiques et la possibilité de catastrophe majeure. Nous analysons dans ce cadre la date d’introduction et l’ampleur optimales des mesures de mitigation à adopter. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, Mitigation, Real Options, Delay, Tipping Point, Climate Change, CO2, Gross Domestic Product, Adaptation, Mitigation, Options réelles, Délai, Point de basculement, Changement climatique, CO2, Produit national brut |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-34&r=ger |
| By: | O'Callaghan, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Empirical settings often involve discrete actions and rich parameter spaces where the notion of open set is constrained. This restricts the class of continuous functions from parameters to actions. Yet suitably continuous policies and value functions are necessary for many standard results in economic theory. We derive these tools from preferences when the parameter space is normal (disjoint closed sets can be separated). Whereas we use preferences to generate an endogenous pseudometric, existing results require metrizable parameter spaces. Still, weakly ordered parameters do not form a normal space. We provide a solution and close with an algorithm for eliciting preferences. |
| Keywords: | Continuity, preferences, metrizability |
| JEL: | C0 C02 C6 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72356&r=ger |
| By: | Ubilava, David |
| Abstract: | How are commodity prices related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and has this relationship altered over time? Despite overwhelming evidence suggesting an important role played by the ENSO in global commodity production, the relationship between this climate anomaly and prices is not a trivial corollary, and requires careful investigation. To account for potentially complex dynamics in the ENSO–price relationship, this study applies a time– varying smooth transition autoregressive (TV–STAR) modeling framework to monthly series of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 region and 46 primary commodity prices spanning the January 1982 – December 2015 period. The findings suggest apparent linkages between ENSO shocks and a set of agricultural commodities, as well as forestry commodities and metals. An unexpected deviation in ENSO results in two-to-five percentage point change in prices, while up to 30 percent of price variation in the selected commodities can be attributed to ENSO shocks in the intermediate and long run. Importantly, there are benefits to regime– dependent modeling, which in some instances facilitates unveiling causal linkages that may have been camouflaged in a linear setting. Several commodity prices also reveal evidence of structural change, and in those instances, the ENSO effect appears to have been mitigated over time, suggesting some adaptive response to the known economic consequences of this climate anomaly. |
| Keywords: | Commodity Prices; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Nonlinear Dynamics; Structural Change; Time–Varying Smooth Transition Autoregression |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2016-10&r=ger |
| By: | Thomas COUDERT (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to highlight the interaction between inflation persistence and the labor market institutions in a New Keynesian model with a search and matching labor market. In this framework, I reintroduce severance pay and show that the negotiation of this severance pay creates a new real rigidity into wage dynamics. Indeed, following the bonding critique, in a context of free negotiation and in presence of firing costs, workers agree to pay a share of severance pay in order to reduce the burden on firms. Then, a contribution system appears, affecting the real wage dynamics and inflation persistence through the New Keynesian Phillips curve. |
| Keywords: | Labor Market Search, Severance Pay, Wage Bargaining, Inflation Persistence. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 J31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2016-06&r=ger |
| By: | Markus K. Brunnermeier (Department of Economics Princeton University); Luis Garicano (London School of Economics (LSE)); Philip R. Lane (Department of Economics Trinity College Dublin); Marco Pagano (University of Naples Federico II); Ricardo Reis (Columbia University; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)); Tano Santos (Columbia University); David Thesmar (Départment de Finance et Économie HEC Paris (École des Hautes Études Commerciales)); Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh (Stern School of Business New York University (NYU)); Dimitri Vayanosy (London School of Economics (LSE)) |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple model of the sovereign-bank diabolic loop, and establish four results. First, the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity. Second, equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign debt. Third, such requirements shrink even further if banks only hold the senior tranche of an internationally diversified sovereign portfolio known as ESBies in the euro-area context. Finally, ESBies generate more safe assets than domestic debt tranching alone; and, insofar as the diabolic loop is defused, the junior tranche generated by the securitization is itself risk-free. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1617&r=ger |
| By: | Restrepo-Estrada, Maria Isabel; Tena Junguito, Antonio |
| Abstract: | The oft-mentioned failure of the economic integration of South America contrasts with the North American, European and East Asian experiences. While low levels of development, geographical and historical explanations are at the root of our understanding of South America's scarce regional trade integration, due to data limitations such explanations have been little analyzed quantitatively in the long run before the Second World War. We use for the first time a new database on bilateral trade for 11 countries of the region between 1870 and 1950. Our results confirm the conventional view of the existence of a historical handicap of regional trade in the Americas, especially during the commodity boom of the Atlantic globalization prior to the First World War. |
| Keywords: | 19th and 20th Centuries; the Americas; revealed trade preferences; Regional trade |
| JEL: | F1 N7 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:23304&r=ger |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Jacinta C. Nwachukwu (Coventry University) |
| Abstract: | The study assesses the role of mobile phones and mobile banking in decreasing inequality in 52 African countries. The empirical procedure involves first, examining the income-redistributive effect of mobile phone penetration and then investigating the contribution of mobile banking services in this relationship. The findings suggest an equalizing income-redistributive effect of ‘mobile phone penetration’ and ‘mobile banking’, with a higher income-equalizing effect from mobile banking compared to mobile phone penetration. Poverty alleviation channels explaining this difference in inequality mitigating propensity are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Banking; Mobile Phones; Shadow Economy; Financial Development; Africa |
| JEL: | E00 G20 L96 O17 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/021&r=ger |
| By: | Mathews, Don (Reg Murphy Center for Economic and Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | This April 2016 study complements the February 2016 study and compares real personal income per capita in the six South Georgia Coast counties – Brantley, Camden, Charlton, Glynn, McIntosh, and Wayne – to that of the U.S., Georgia, and Georgia’s other 153 counties in three different time periods since 2000. Special attention is paid to Glynn County, the largest of the six South Georgia Coast counties. |
| Keywords: | Glynn County; Georgia; economic performance by county; great recession |
| JEL: | E32 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:rgcrwp:2016_003&r=ger |
| By: | Lidia Mannarino; Valeria Pupo; Fernanda Ricotta (Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza, Università della Calabria) |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this research is to investigate the influence the institutional environment has on the difference in performance between Italian family firms run by a family member and firms run by a professional manager. By using total factor productivity (TFP) as a measure of performance, we find that family-run firms are less productive than firms run by outside managers when institutional quality is high, but that the results are less obvious when institutional quality is low. The difference in performance is not significant, but by using the level of corruption as a measure of institutional quality, older family firms are found to be more productive than firms run by outside managers. |
| Keywords: | Family firms, TFP, Institutions |
| JEL: | G34 D24 O43 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clb:wpaper:201605&r=ger |
| By: | Taro Abe |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effectiveness of redistribution policies under budget constraint considering government spending for the productivity improvement as Bowles (2012) and effective demand based on Abe (2015). It shows that an asset-based redistribution policy is not always effective under effective demand and budget constraint. However, the increase of effective demand because of income distribution improves employment, labor productivity, and wage rates because of increased government spending for productivity improvement as the results of saving rate from profit income show. |
| Keywords: | Egalitarianism, Redistribution, Effective Demand, Globalization |
| JEL: | E12 F60 J80 J88 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-15-014&r=ger |
| By: | Aghadadashli, Hamid; Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Wey, Christian |
| Abstract: | We re-examine the Nash bargaining solution when an upstream and a downstream firm bargain over a linear input price. We show that the profit sharing rule is given by a simple and instructive formula which depends on the parties' disagreement payoffs, the profit weights in the Nash-product and the elasticity of derived demand. A downstream firm's profit share increases in the equilibrium derived demand elasticity which in turn depends on the final goods' demand elasticity. Our simple formula generalizes to bargaining with N downstream firms when bilateral contracts are unobservable. |
| Keywords: | Nash Bargaining,Demand Elasticity |
| JEL: | L13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:224&r=ger |
| By: | Gibson, Fiona; Hailu, Atakelty; Pannell, David |
| Abstract: | Economic analysis of bushfire mitigation options requires a range of information, such as the risk of bushfire, effectiveness of mitigation in reducing damage as well as cost and benefit estimates. Intangible or non-market benefits are likely to be a significant component of the latter as mitigation activities are designed to protect environmental, social and economic assets and services. Yet it is not clear whether these types of benefits have been given much consideration in economic analyses. In this paper, we review the studies that estimate the value of non-market benefits from bushfire mitigation and investigate to what extent non-market values have been incorporated in economic analysis. We find a small proportion of non-market valuation studies within the bushfire mitigation literature. About half of the studies on bushfire mitigation included non-market values but the values included were predominately environmental. We provide some possible explanations as to why non-market values are not used in economic analyses more widely and make recommendations to improve future use. |
| Keywords: | bushfire, mitigation, economic analysis, non-market valuation, intangibles, Land Economics/Use, Q540, Q510, Q5, |
| Date: | 2016–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:241265&r=ger |
| By: | Taisei Kaizoji; Michiko Miyano |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of 7,796 worldwide companies for the period 2004 through 2013. We develop a panel regression model using three financial indicators--dividends per share, cash flow per share, and book value per share--as explanatory variables for share price. We then estimate individual company fundamentals for each year by removing the time fixed effects from the two-way fixed effects model, which we identified as the best of the panel regression models. One merit of our model is that we are able to extract unobservable factors of company fundamentals by using the individual fixed effects. Based on these results, we analyze the market anomaly quantitatively using the divergence rate--the rate of the deviation of share price from a company's fundamentals. We find that share prices on average were overvalued in the period from 2005 to 2007, and were undervalued significantly in 2008, when the global financial crisis occurred. Share prices were equivalent to the fundamentals on average in the subsequent period. Our empirical results clearly demonstrate that the worldwide stock market fluctuated excessively in the time period before and just after the global financial crisis of 2008. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.03205&r=ger |
| By: | Malamud, Semyon; Zucchi, Francesca |
| Abstract: | We study optimal liquidity management, innovation, and production decisions for a continuum of firms facing financing frictions and the threat of creative destruction. We show that financing constraints lead firms to decrease production but may spur investment in innovation (R&D). We characterize which firms should substitute production for innovation in the face of constraints and thus display a "gambling" type of behavior. We embed our firm dynamics into a model of endogenous growth and show that financing frictions have offsetting effects on economic growth. JEL Classification: D21, G31, G32, G35, L11 |
| Keywords: | cash management, endogenous growth, financial constraints, innovation |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161919&r=ger |
| By: | Brito, Paulo; Costa, Luís F.; Dixon, Huw David (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | We present conditions for the emergence of singularities in DGE models. We distinguish between slow-fast and impasse singularity types, review geometrical methods to deal with both types of singularity and apply them to DGE dynamics. We find that impasse singularities can generate new types of DGE dynamics, in particular temporary determinacy/indeterminacy. We illustrate the different nature of the two types of singularities and apply our results to two simple models: the Benhabib and Farmer (1994) model and one with a cyclical fiscal policy rule. |
| Keywords: | slow-fast singularities; impasse singularities; macroeconomic dynamics; temporary indeterminacy |
| JEL: | C62 D43 E32 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2016/6&r=ger |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Katherine Eriksson |
| Abstract: | Using two million census records, we document cultural assimilation during the Age of Mass Migration, a formative period in US history. Immigrants chose less foreign names for children as they spent more time in the US, eventually closing half of the gap with natives. Many immigrants also intermarried and learned English. Name-based assimilation was similar by literacy status, and faster for immigrants who were more culturally distant from natives. Cultural assimilation affected the next generation. Within households, brothers with more foreign names completed fewer years of schooling, faced higher unemployment, earned less and were more likely to marry foreign-born spouses. |
| JEL: | J15 N32 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22381&r=ger |
| By: | Stefanescu, Răzvan; Dumitriu, Ramona |
| Abstract: | Descriptive statistics facilitates the revealing of some important features of the financial variables evolutions. In this paper we present some indicators of the central tendency and the dispersion. We approach, also, the skewness and kurtosis of the financial variables. |
| Keywords: | Financial Variables, Central Tendency, Dispersion, Skewness, Kurtosis |
| JEL: | C10 G10 G19 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72268&r=ger |
| By: | Sarah Cook; Amber Peterman; Tia Palermo; Naomi Neijhoft; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | This Brief summarizes the proceedings of the Know Violence Roundtable examining the evidence on the role of social protection in reducing childhood violence hosted by UNICEF Office of Research – Innocenti, 12-13 May, 2016. |
| Keywords: | social protection; violence against children; violence against women; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inores:metbri850&r=ger |
| By: | Pietro Alessandrini (Università Politecnica delle Marche, MoFiR); Michele Fratianni (Indiana University, Kelly School of Business, Bloomington US, Univ. Plitecn ica Marche and MoFiR); Luca Papi (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR); Alberto Zazzaro (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR - Ancona, Italy, CSEF, Naples, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The re-regulation wave following the recent financial crisis has contributed to produce a complex system of new rules and controls. The paper argues that the burden of this new regulatory system is asymmetric and penalizing for small banks. This conclusion is corroborated from the preliminary results of a questionnaire on the impact of regulation on different types of Italian banks. Asymmetric effects on banking structure produce related asymmetries on firms and regional economies, in light of the fact that small firms and peripheral regions are highly dependent on bank credit and need strategic proximity of banking structures. When firms and regions are heterogeneous, the review of the literature on different countries and on different periods of time suggests the importance of differentiated banking models. Bank size, organization and governance should be evaluated in relative terms reflecting various heterogeneities of clients and regions. Consequently, a regulatory system should not favor one particular bank type but should aim at achieving a more symmetric distribution of the regulatory burden. |
| Keywords: | banking regulation, local banks, large banks, regions, asymmetries, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | G01 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:125&r=ger |
| By: | Sylwester Arabas; Ahmad Farhat |
| Abstract: | In this note, we discuss applications of the Multidimensional Positive Definite Advection Transport Algorithm (MPDATA) to numerical solutions of option pricing equations arising in quantitative finance. To demonstrate, we present an application of an unmodified open-source MPDATA solver library, libmpdata++, developed recently in the geoscientific community. We use the library to numerically price a typical example of a financial instrument, an interest rate corridor, assuming the Black-Scholes model. The results obtained with different solver settings are compared with the analytical solution with the aim of depicting the accuracy of the numerical scheme. The goal of this study is to highlight the potential MPDATA has as an accurate finite-difference approach for solving a wide variety of option pricing problems, including problems of current interest. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.01751&r=ger |
| By: | Jacobs, Lindsay; Piyapromdee, Suphanit |
| Abstract: | Partial and reverse retirement are two key behaviors characterizing labor force dynamics for individuals at older ages, with half working part-time and over a third leaving and later re-entering the labor force. The high rate of exit and re-entry is especially surprising given the declining wage profile at older ages and opportunities for re-entry in the future being uncertain. In this paper we study the effects of wage and health transition processes as well as the role of accrues work-related strain on the labor force participation on older males. We find that a model incorporating a work burnout-recovery process can account for such reverse retirement behavior that cannot be generated by health and wealth shocks alone, suggesting re-entry patterns result in large part from planned behavior. We first present descriptive statistics of the frequency and timing of re-entry and characteristics of those who re-enter using Health and Retirement Study (HRS) panel data. We then develop and estimate a dynamic model of retirement that captures the occurrence and timing of re-entry decisions observed in the data-as well as the transition to part-time work-while incorporating uncertainty in earnings, health, and stress accumulation. The burnout-recovery process allows us to account for about 40 percent of re-entry, and one-quarter of the shifts to part-time work with age. We also consider the lower exit and re-entry rates after 2008, and attribute this to high option values of work in an environment where future re-entry is less certain. Consistent with our burnout-recovery model, we see that respondents are more likely to report high levels of job stress as they continue to work when they would have otherwise stopped working, recovered, and re-entered. This offers us some information about the relative option value of work versus the burnout-recovery process. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply ; Retirement |
| JEL: | J26 J14 D91 |
| Date: | 2016–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-53&r=ger |
| By: | James Harrigan; Ariell Reshef; Farid Toubal |
| Abstract: | Using administrative employee-firm-level data on the entire private sector from 1994 to 2007, we show that the labor market in France has polarized: employment shares of high and low wage occupations have grown, while middle wage occupations have shrunk. During the same period, the share of hours worked in technology-related occupations ("techies") grew substantially, as did imports and exports, and we explore the causal links between these trends. Our paper is among the first to analyze polarization in any country using firm-level data, and we show how polarization occurred within firms, but mostly due to changes in the composition of firms (between firms). Motivated by the fact that technology adoption is mediated by technically qualified managers and technicians, we use a new measure of the propensity of a firm to adopt new technology: its employment share of techies. Using the subsample of firms that are active over the whole period, we show that firms with more techies in 2002 saw greater polarization, and grew faster, from 2002 to 2007. Offshoring reduced employment growth. Among blue- collar workers in manufacturing, importing caused skill upgrading while exporting caused skill downgrading. To control for the endogeneity of firm-level techies and trade in 2002, we use values of techies and trade from 1994 to 1998 as instruments. We conclude that technological change, mediated through techies, is an important cause of polarization in France. Firm-level trade had important effects in manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | job polarization;technological change;offshoring;skill bias;firm level data |
| JEL: | J2 O3 D3 F1 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-15&r=ger |
| By: | Viktor Pirmana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Armida Alisjahbana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Irlan Adiyatma Rum (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | It is well established that infrastructure investment plays significant role in the acceleration of development through its impact on growth, sector performance and socio-economic indicators. West Java Province is province with the largest population in Indonesia and main contributor to national GDP. In this study, the impact of increased national infrastructure investment in West Java Province is assessed using 2014 data. JaBarTERM5 CGE model is used to simulate two infrastructure investment scenarios, the moderate scenario or increase in government national infrastructure investment only, and the progressive scenario that combines government national infrastructure investment with private investment. The results indicate that under the moderate scenario, West Java GRDP increased by 1.91% (1.91 percentage point compared to baseline, while in the progressive scenario (national plus private infrastructure investment), GRDP increased by up to 3.58% (3.58 percentage point compared to baseline). However, there are differential responses at district level. Districts that experience the highest increase in GRDP are districts close to industrial areas in the vicinity of Jakarta and Bandung. When viewed from its impact on provincial employment, it increases by 2.27% (2.27 percentage point compared to the baseline case) under the progressive scenario. The employment impact is particularly more pronounced in districts that are industrial areas. Sectors that experience increase in their production are Cements, Papers, Textiles, Food Crops, and Transportation Services. Another result is an increase in the prices of Real Estate, and Business and Financial Services, while the price (cost) of trade and transport sector has decreased due to an increase in the access and quality of infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | National Infrastructure Investment, TERM CGE model, West Java Province |
| JEL: | H54 H72 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:sdgspp:201618&r=ger |
| By: | Chen, Zhao (Fudan University, China); Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland) |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth and high levels of internationalization by Chinese firms, raise a natural interest in the study of the factors which have led the notable international presence of Chinese firms. To contribute to this effort, we use data from the 2008-10 survey of China's High-tech firms, conducted by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, to estimate the determinants of Chinese firm outward FDI (OFDI). In our analysis, the primary independent variables include high-tech intensity, human capital acquisition, and institutional factors. We have also controlled for various firm characteristics such as firm age, total value of fixed assets, and firm ownership. Estimation from our fixed-effects model uncovers a number interesting patterns in OFDI outcomes. Most notable, among the significant determinants of OFDI, the number of Chinese returnees employed by a firm seems to be more important than tax reduction policies. Further, the effects of the Chinese returnees have a stronger effect on non state-controlled firms than they do for state-controlled firms. This finding is intuitive, since the Chinese returnees who were trained in the West have an understanding of product markets, labour markets, financial markets, language and business culture, and trade laws in both China and the West. Their unique skill sets and knowledge appear to serve as an important catalysts in the growth of OFDI and internationalization by Chinese firms. |
| Keywords: | OFDI, Chinese firm internationalization, panel data |
| JEL: | F21 M16 F23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10045&r=ger |
| By: | Sanne Zwart |
| Abstract: | Investment has rebounded during the recent economic revival, but from a low level. The investment slump during the crisis was mostly caused by a fall in residential investment. However, business investment has been trending downwards since 1990, holding back capital stock accumulation and productivity. Raising residential investment is necessary to meet the growing demand, and in particular more private rental housing is needed as the current small stock, which reflects rental regulation and other housing policies, hampers the functioning of the housing market. Financing of owner-occupied housing can be made more resilient by stepping up measures taken after the crisis. Regarding business investment, further reinforcing the already good framework conditions would help to turn its cyclical upswing into a durably higher level. Meeting targets on R&D expenditure and renewable energy requires lifting investments in the related areas. Financing conditions, which are widely perceived as an important bottleneck, could be improved by stimulating competition in the banking sector and the development of alternative financing sources. Stimuler l'investissement privé aux Pays-Bas L’investissement s’est redressé depuis la reprise économique récente, mais à partir d’un niveau faible. La forte diminution observée pendant la crise était principalement imputable à la chute de l’investissement résidentiel. Cependant, l’investissement productif est orienté à la baisse depuis 1990, pesant sur l’accumulation du stock de capital et sur la productivité. Il est nécessaire d’accroître l’investissement résidentiel pour faire face à la demande croissante ; en particulier, il faut développer le parc locatif privé car le stock actuel, dont le niveau reflète l’encadrement des loyers et d’autres mesures en matière de logement, n’est pas favorable à un bon fonctionnement du marché immobilier. Étoffer les mesures prises après la crise pourrait permettre d’accroître la robustesse du financement des logements occupés par leurs propriétaires. Pour ce qui est de l’investissement des entreprises, continuer de renforcer les conditions cadres, déjà satisfaisantes, pourrait contribuer à transformer le redressement cyclique en amélioration durable. Atteindre les objectifs en matière de dépenses de R-D et d’énergies renouvelables nécessitera d’accroître les investissements dans les domaines concernés. Les conditions de financement, largement perçues comme un obstacle de taille, pourraient être améliorées par des mesures visant à stimuler la concurrence dans le secteur bancaire et par le développement d’autres sources de financement. |
| Keywords: | investment, housing market, SME financing, sustainable development, research and development |
| JEL: | E22 G21 G23 O38 Q01 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1305-en&r=ger |
| By: | Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (AQR Research Group-IREA. University of Barcelona); Marta Gómez-Puig (Complutense Institute for International Studies, University Complutense of Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth model augmented for public debt using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our findings tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EMU countries, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country. |
| Keywords: | Public debt, economic growth, bounds testing, euro area, peripheral EMU countries, central EMU countries. JEL classification: C22; F33; H63; O40; O52 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201610&r=ger |
| By: | Coremberg, Ariel; Mastronardi, Leonardo; Romero, Carlos; Vila Martinez, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Argentina is presented in this paper using different sources of data. The result is a combination of GDP results for ARKLEMS – LAND UBA model and historical data from Argentina. The aim of the paper is to present a SAM that could be used for simulations of political economy in SAM based models or Computable General Equilibrium models. After INDEC intervention and the deficiency of the national stats system, an alternative GDP estimation for ARKLEMS, a household survey from 2004/2005 (ENGHo), imports for UNCOMTRADE and coefficients for old SAM’s estimations were used to estimate a new SAM. So we describe in the paper a basic methodology which indicates how to build an updated SAM for Argentina 2012. |
| Keywords: | SAM model Argentina |
| JEL: | D57 D58 |
| Date: | 2016–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72303&r=ger |
| By: | Christian Stohr |
| Abstract: | This paper revises Swiss GDP emphasizing the difference between single and double deflation, which depends on trading gains: i.e. gains from terms of trade and from the real exchange rate. These gains contributed significantly to Swiss economic growth between 1930 and 1990. Earlier series of Swiss GDP have neglected trading gains. In backward projections, this leads to overestimation of GDP (per capita) levels. The Maddison database (Bolt & Zanden 2014), for example, suggests that Swiss GDP per capita was 38 percent above that of the USA in 1875. My series shows that Swiss GDP per capita was still below the Western European average |
| Keywords: | Historical National Accounts; Gross Domestic Income; Double deflation; Real Exchange Rate; Terms of Trade; Switzerland |
| JEL: | N0 L81 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:67032&r=ger |
| By: | Keiber, Karl Ludwig; Samyschew, Helene |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether sentiment is rewarded with a significant risk premium on the European stock markets. We examine several sentiment proxies and identify the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) from the EU Commission as the most relevant sentiment proxy for our sample. The analysis is performed for the contemporaneous excess returns of eleven euro area (EA-11) stock markets in the period from February 1999 to September 2015. We apply a conditional multiplebeta pricing model in order to track the variation of the sentiment risk premium over time. The results demonstrate a positive significant relationship between sentiment and contemporaneous excess returns which is consistent to the previous studies. The calculated sentiment risk premium is significant as well but of a negative sign implying that an investment in EA-11 countries over the examined time period would have been unattractive to the investors on average. |
| Keywords: | international asset pricing,European risk premia,sentiment risk,conditional asset-pricing model |
| JEL: | G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:384&r=ger |
| By: | Carlos Gozzi, Juan & Schmukler, Sergio (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a famous unsolved puzzle in quantitative social science. Why do some nations report such high levels of mental well-being? Denmark, for instance, regularly tops the league table of rich countries’ happiness; Britain and the US enter further down; some nations do unexpectedly poorly. The explanation for the longobserved ranking -- one that holds after adjustment for GDP and other socioeconomic variables -- is currently unknown. Using data on 131 countries, the paper cautiously explores a new approach. It documents three forms of evidence consistent with the hypothesis that some nations may have a genetic advantage in well-being. |
| Keywords: | credit guarantees, public guarantees, SME financing, access to finance, public risk absorption |
| JEL: | E44 G28 H11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1122&r=ger |
| By: | Duleep, Harriet (College of William and Mary); Liu, Xingfei (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | The importance of using natural experiments and experimental data in economic research has long been recognized. Yet, it is only in recent years that these approaches have become an integral part of the economist's analytical toolbox, thanks to the efforts of Meyer, Card, Peters, Krueger, Gruber, and others. This use has shed new light on a variety of public policy issues and has already caused a major challenge to some tightly held beliefs in economics, most vividly illustrated by the finding of a positive effect of a minimum wage increase on the employment of low-wage workers. Although currently in vogue in economic research, the analysis of experimental data and natural experiments could be substantially strengthened. This paper discusses how analysts could increase the precision with which they measure treatment effects. An underlying theme is how best to measure the effect of a treatment on a variable, as opposed to explaining a level or change in a variable. |
| Keywords: | precision of treatment effects, differences in averages, average of differences, experimental approach, natural experiment, policy evaluation |
| JEL: | C1 J1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10055&r=ger |
| By: | Gietzen, Thomas |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of information sharing among banks on interest rates borrowers pay. To identify the effect of credit information sharing, I exploit a particular feature of the introduction of an Information sharing system in an African banking market. Banks started to Report borrowers to the new system more than a year before they began to actively use the data to screen applicants. Hence, this study is the first to directly control for compositional changes in the borrower pool by combining a control period during which no information was shared among banks with a loan-level data source that facilitates tracing borrowers who switch banks. Results lend great support to the idea that information sharing efficiently mitigates adverse selection problems. Successful repeated borrowers are able to obtain cheaper follow-up loans when information is actively shared among banks and borrowers who Switch institutions profit most from the reduction in adverse selection. At the same time, as banks loose their ability to hold-up successful borrowers for their second loan, first-time credit starts to be more expensive, even though this effect is strongly outweighed by the cost reduction for follow-up loans. |
| Keywords: | Credit Information Sharing, Credit Registry, Interest Rates, Switching |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2016:12&r=ger |
| By: | Gina Cárdenas Varón; José Luis Polo Otero |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de esta investigación fue identificar y analizar la existencia del ciclo intergeneracional de la violencia doméstica contra la mujer, perpetrada por su pareja. Este artículo aporta a la literatura nuevas perspectivas de políticas orientadas a mitigar los efectos generados por este tipo de violencia. A partir de la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (2010), se utilizaron modelos probit con errores estándar robustos, cuyos resultados indican que las conductas violentas se transmiten entre padres e hijos, así como también, que existen diferencias regionales en la probabilidad de sufrir violencia doméstica. |
| Keywords: | Economía de la familia, violencia doméstica, modelos probabilísticos, ciclo intergeneracional de la violencia, regiones. |
| JEL: | I10 I31 J12 R59 |
| Date: | 2014–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014767&r=ger |
| By: | Jo, Tae-Hee |
| Abstract: | The social provisioning process is how heterodox economists define economics in general. Instead of having a narrow definition of what constitutes economics, such as the mainstream has with its allocation of scarce resources among competing ends via the price mechanism, heterodox economists have opted for a much more expansive definition that permits different theoretical explanations for ways in which the provisioning process can take place in different types of economies in different historical contexts. In this chapter, we first examine the changes in the definition of economics from classical political economy to neoclassical and heterodox economics. The comparison between classical political economy and neoclassical economics manifests a clear distinction in view of economy and economics. The second section substantiates the meaning of the social provisioning process. In doing so we make a case that, first, defining heterodox economics as the study of the social provisioning process positions heterodox economics as an alternative to neoclassical economics, and, second, that such an expansive definition of economics has potential to synthesize various heterodox theoretical frameworks in a constructive manner. |
| Keywords: | Social Provisioning Process; Heterodox Economics; Classical Political Economy; Neoclassical economics; Surplus approach; monetary production economy; effective demand |
| JEL: | A11 B1 B2 B5 B51 B52 |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72384&r=ger |
| By: | Schleich, Joachim; Gassmann, Xavier; Faure, Corinne; Meissner, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Implicit discount rates (IDRs) are employed in energy models to capture household investment decisions, yet the factors behind the IDR and their respective implications for policy-making usually remain blurred and fractional. The proposed comprehensive framework distinguishes three broad categories of factors underlying the IDR for household adoption of energy-efficient technologies (EETs): preferences (notably over time, risk, loss, debt, and the environment), predictable (ir)rational behavior (bounded rationality, rational inattention, behavioral biases), and external barriers to energy efficiency. Existing empirical findings suggest that the factors underlying the IDRs that differ across household characteristics and technologies should be accounted for in energy models. Furthermore, the framework allows for a fresh look at the interplay of IDRs and policies. We argue that a simple observation of high IDRs (or observing correlations between IDRs and socio-economic characteristics) does not provide guid-ance for policy-making since the underlying sources cannot be identified. In-stead, we propose that some of the factors underlying the IDR - notably external barriers - can be changed (through directed policy interventions) whereas other factors - notably preferences and predictable (ir)rational behavior - are innate and can only be taken into account (through reactive policy interventions). |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency,energy modeling,implicit discount rate,energy policy,behavioral economics |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s042016&r=ger |
| By: | Susan Payne Carter; Whitney Dudley; David S. Lyle; John Z. Smith |
| Abstract: | Despite the prevalence of mentor relationships in the workplace, little is known about their impact on labor market outcomes, including job retention. Using plausibly exogenous assignment of protégés to mentors in the U.S. Army, we find positive retention effects for protégés assigned to high-performing immediate and senior supervisors. These positive effects are strongest for those with high SAT scores. We find virtually no evidence of type-matched mentoring effects on retention, except when mentors are also high-performing. For protégés serving under high-performing mentors, matching on high SAT score and home division positively impacts protégé retention. |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J24 J53 J63 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22383&r=ger |
| By: | Ronayne, David & Brown, Gordon D.A. (Department of Economics, University of Warwick & Department of Psychology, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Consumers' choices are typically influenced by choice context in ways that standard models cannot explain. We provide a concise explanation of the attraction, compromise and similarity effects. Value is assumed to be determined by simple dominance relations between choice options and sampled comparators, and selection of comparators is assumed to be systematically influenced by the choice options. In one experiment, participants viewed differing selections of market options prior to choice. The classic context effects appeared and disappeared as predicted. In the second experiment, individuals' sampling distributions of market options were influenced by the choice set as predicted by the model. |
| Keywords: | consumer choice; decision-making; context effects; sampling. |
| JEL: | I30 I31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1124&r=ger |
| By: | Ledenyov, Dimitri O.; Ledenyov, Viktor O. |
| Abstract: | In the Schumpeterian technical and social innovations disruption age, we firmly believe that a big number of unlimited opportunities toward a new era of the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets is being created due to an increasing application of the computations processing in the range of ultra high frequencies in the modern finances. In this book, we would like to focus on the capital markets in the finances, discussing a number of scientific methods for an accurate forecast of the foreign currencies exchange rates oscillations dynamics during the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the short and long time periods. More specifically, we would like to precisely characterize the foreign currencies exchange rates at the ultra high frequencies electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the short and long time periods, using the mathematical, financial, electronic and quantum analysis methods. In addition, we would like to propose the quantum winning virtuous strategies creation algorithm with the inductive, deductive, abductive and quantum logics to earn an increasing return premium during the ultra high frequencies electronic trading in the foreign currencies exchange markets in the short and long time periods. |
| Keywords: | absorption of information, diffusion of information, transmission of information, information theory, ultra high frequency electronic trading, processing frequency, algorithmic trading, informed trading, noise trading, currencies exchange rate, vehicle currency, interest rate, retail aggregator, liquidity aggregator, interdealer trade orders flow direction, stop-loss order, bid - ask spreads, price discovery process, capital inflow, capital outflow, carry trade strategy, financial liquidity, foreign currencies exchange market micro structure, foreign currencies exchange rate dynamics, Wiener filtering theory, Stratanovich-Kalman-Bucy filtering algorithm, Stratanovich – Kalman – Bucy filter, particle filter, nonlinearities, Ledenyov law on limiting frequency for ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets, econophysics, econometrics, global foreign exchange market, global capital market |
| JEL: | G1 G11 G15 G17 G19 |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72286&r=ger |
| By: | Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Hałaj, Grzegorz; Kok, Christoffer |
| Abstract: | With the aim of reigniting inflation in the euro area, in early 2015 the ECB embarked on a large-scale asset purchase programme. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of the Asset Purchase Programme via the banking system, exploiting the cross-section of individual bank portfolio decisions. For this purpose, an augmented version of the DSGE model of Gertler and Karadi (2013), featuring a segmented banking sector, is estimated for the euro area and combined with a bank portfolio optimisation approach using granular bank level data. An important feature of our modelling approach is that it captures the heterogeneity of banks’ responses to yield curve shocks, due to individual banks’ balance sheet structure, different capital and liquidity constraints as well as different credit and market risk characteristics. The deep parameters of the DSGE model which control the transmission channel of central bank asset purchases are then adjusted to reproduce the easing of lending conditions consistent with the bank-level portfolio optimisation. Our macroeconomic simulations suggest that such unconventional policies have the potential to strongly support the growth momentum in the euro area and significantly lift inflation prospects. The paper also illustrates that the benefits of the measure crucially hinge on banks’ ability and incentives to ease their lending conditions, which can vary significantly across jurisdictions and segments of the banking system. JEL Classification: C61, E52, G11 |
| Keywords: | banking, DSGE, portfolio optimisation, quantitative easing |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161916&r=ger |
| By: | Matteo Rizzolli; James Tremewan |
| Abstract: | The theory of optimal deterrence suggests the substitution of mon- etary sanctions over non-monetary sanctions whenever this is possible because non-monetary sanctions are more socially costly. This pre- scription is based on the assumption that monetary and non-monetary sanctions are perfect substitutes: there exists a monetary equivalent of a non-monetary sanction that, if used as a ne, produces the same level of deterrence. We test this assumption with an experiment. In our stealing game potential thieves face the possibility of punishment. Our non-monetary sanction treatments mimic hard labour: we require convicted individuals to carry out a tedious real e ort task. In the monetary treatments sanctions are insteadones, which are based on individuals' willingness to pay to avoid the effort task to ensure com- parability to the non-monetary treatment. A second manipulation of our experiment concerns the balance of errors in the adjudication pro- cedure (convictions of innocents and acquittal of guilty individuals). We and that stealing is reduced most e ectively by a sanction regime that combines non-monetary sanctions with a severe procedure. Our data is consistent with the notion that both monetary punishment and pro-defendant sanction regimes are less effective in communicat- ing moral condemnation of an act. |
| JEL: | D01 K14 K40 K41 D42 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vie:viennp:1606&r=ger |
| By: | Ben Fine (School of Oriental and African Studies); Kate Bayliss (School of Oriental and African Studies); Mary Robertson (The University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the impact of financialisation on the systems of provision (SoPs) drawing on a series of case studies in housing and water – both non-financial sectors. In order to understand this more fully, the paper first considers some of the theoretical constructs connecting money, commodities and finance, exploring the theories of money, the extension of that theory to finance and the specification of the processes attaching finance to the non-financial. The paper shows that both case-study sectors have increasingly been subject to market forms with, for example, land markets in housing and cost recovery practices in water provision. However there are different forms of monetary relations across the case studies. Simply to equate financialisation with commodification would be misleading. The diversity of arrangements across sectors and locations is addressed in the paper by making the distinction between commodification (production for private profits), the commodity form (periodic payments for a good or service in the absence of a profit motive) and commodity calculation (application of a monetary logic without money changing hands). Each of these is associated with different forms of marketization and “market forces” but they are underpinned by different economic and social structures. The paper then goes on to tie these insights to financialisation and contemporary capitalism more generally with reference to the case studies. For housing there is variegation in the extent to which the expansion of finance coincides with expansion of material provision, as shown with for example the different outcomes from expanding lending for house production as opposed to mortgage lending for consumption. In water, there is diversity in the extent and nature of privatisation and this has led to differences in the extent and depth of financial intervention across the case studies. England and Wales lies at one extreme with heavily entrenched financialisation while this is considerably less significant in the case studies with less privatisation. The final section of this paper considers the implication of the different forms of financialisation for economic and social reproduction including gender. |
| Keywords: | financialisation, neoliberalism, housing, water, privatisation |
| JEL: | H4 L95 L33 R31 R38 P16 P1 P10 |
| Date: | 2016–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper156&r=ger |
| By: | Michel Forsé (Centre Maurice Halbwachs); Maxime Parodi (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | Les Français croient-ils à l’ég alité des chances ? L’enquête Dynegal a posé la question en 2013 à un échantillon repr ésentatif de 4 000 individus et leurs réponses sont très partagées. Ce sont les classes moyennes qui se montrent un peu plus convaincues que les autres pa r l’idée que l’école donne à chacun sa chance et que la réussite dans la vie ne dépend pas de l’origine sociale. Ce résultat va dans le sens d’une thèse de Simmel faisant de la classe moyenne le lieu de la mobilité sociale. L’enquête permet également de s’interr oger sur le lien entre la croyance en l’égalité des chances et les attentes so ciales en termes de reconnaissance des mérites et d’égalité des résultats. Comme on pouvait s’y attend re, moins on croit à l’égalité des chances, moins on défend la reconnaissance des mérites, et plus on demande d’égalité des résultats. En revanche, les Français parfaitement convaincus que tout le monde a les mê mes chances de réussir défendent non seulement la reconnaissance des mérites, mais aussi l’égalité des places. Ce résultat inattendu met en lumière, en fait, un risque inhérent à une société pensée comme totalement méritocratique : le risque de déconsidérer absolu- ment les perdants et de ne pas leur trouver de places au sein de la sociét |
| Keywords: | Egalité des chances; Ecole; Mobilité sociale; Merite; Perception des inégalités; Justice socilae |
| JEL: | I2 I38 D63 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7v69a74bff9bmo48okekk5r73t&r=ger |
| By: | Ahad, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The prime objective of this study is to re-investigate the tourism-led growth hypothesis by accommodating structural breaks over the annual period 1988-2014 for Pakistan. This study used two measure of tourism development -tourist arrivals and tourism expenditure per capita to explore the relationship between tourism and economic growth. Methodology: The unit root problem is tested by applying Ng-Perron unit root test. However, Perron, (1997) single structural break and Clemente et al. (1998) double structural breaks unit root tests also employed. To examine the long relationship between tourism and economic growth, we applied newly invented Bayer-Hanck, (2013) combine cointegration approach in the presence of structural breaks. The robustness of combine cointegration approach is tested by Johansen cointegration technique. Further, VECM Granger causality is used to understand the direction of causality during structural shocks. Findings: We found all data series stationary at first difference. The empirics confirm the existence of long run relationship between underlying variables in the presence of structural breaks. The results of VECM Granger causality predicted unidirectional causality running from tourism development (tourist arrives) to economic growth in long run as well as short run when. But, bidirectional relationship between tourism development (tourism expenditure) and economic growth has found. This validates the tourism-led growth for Pakistan. Recommendations: Policy makers should focus on development of tourism industry to enhance economic growth for Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Tourism, Economic Growth, Structural Breaks, Combine Cointegration, VECM Granger causality, Pakistan. |
| JEL: | L83 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72430&r=ger |
| By: | Regis, Paulo José (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | Financial constraints are common in developing countries where financial systems are underdeveloped. In China, firms report access to finance is the most important obstacle in the business environment. This seems to be related to firms which fail to gain access to the credit market. We examine the likelihood of access to credit of firms where size and exporting seem to be key characteristics to consider. Credit constraints are significant to investment decisions. Together with size, access to credit is among the firm characteristics with the largest impact in the likelihood to invest. |
| Keywords: | access to finance, investment decision, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, China |
| JEL: | G21 G32 O16 D52 |
| Date: | 2015–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2015-01&r=ger |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Lee, Hak-Loh |
| Abstract: | This article reviewed ASEAN-plus-one free trade agreements (FTAs) by describing the backgrounds and issues in their formations, and by examining their trade effects through an empirical analysis. The empirics examined the trade creation and diversion effects of ASEAN-plus-one FTAs by estimating the gravity trade model for the recent two decades between 1993 and 2013. The estimation outcomes showed that the trade creation effect in ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) was much larger than those in ASEAN-Korea FTA (AKFTA) and ASEAN-Japan FTA (AJFTA), and that the trade diversion effects were commonly negative in ACFTA, AKFTA and AJFTA as expected. The larger trade creation effect in ACFTA might come from the wider gap between the general tariff rate and the preferential tariff rate for ASEAN in China. |
| Keywords: | trade creation and diversion effects, ASEAN-plus-one, free trade agreement |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72503&r=ger |
| By: | Helena Chuliá (Riskcenter-IREA and Department of Econometrics, Universitat de Barcelona,Spain); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Jorge M. Uribe (Department of Economics, Universidad del Valle, Ciudadela Universitaria Melendez, Cali, Colombia.); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the recent financial crisis, a growing literature measures, and analyses the impact of uncertainty on international financial markets. These studies are primarily based on conditional mean-based models. Quantile models can be employed to capture the heavy-tails of stock returns, however, they are limited to causal relationships, and hence are silent about the sign and persistence of any uncertainty shocks – both of which are important information for investors. Our paper is the first to employ quantile impulse-response functions obtained from multivariate quantile models to analyze the impact of US policy and US equity market uncertainties on not only domestic stock returns, but also stock returns of mature and emerging markets. Using daily data over the period January 1998 to March 2016, we find that during episodes of financial distress, an uncertainty shock reduces stock market returns; both in mature and emerging markets, but in higher magnitudes for the latter, while it increases the highest quantiles of returns, only for the mature markets. Policy uncertainty is a less relevant factor, but it still impacts negatively the stock market dynamics during episodes of financial distress, especially for the emerging markets. These results contrast with the market reactions to uncertainty in the median scenarios, which tend to be insignificant in all the cases. |
| Keywords: | Economic Policy and Equity Market Uncertainties, Emerging and Mature Stock Markets, Quantile Vector Autoregressive Model |
| JEL: | C32 G10 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201656&r=ger |
| By: | Nabitz, Lisa; Plötz, Patrick; Braungardt, Sibylle; Reuter, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Innovation plays a crucial role in the transition towards a sustainable energy system. In order to simultaneously achieve the objectives of sustainability, energy security and competitiveness of the European economy, various energy policies are active. In recent years, the effect of energy policies on both technological and non-organisational innovations has gained interest. However, the complexity of the systems renders it difficult to disentangle the innovation effects of energy and innovation policies. Here, we outline a unifying framework based on the notion of technological innovation systems. It distinguishes between different phases of the innovation process, actors and functions in the innovation systems and allows studying the effects of policies on these in a systematic fashion. We apply our framework to case studies from the field of energy efficiency in industry for a technological and organisational innovation. Our results help to organise previous research findings and to identify gaps for further studies. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency,innovation,policy measures,technology diffusion |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisidp:51&r=ger |
| By: | Hilary Patroba (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Leroi Raputsoane (Department of Economics, Tshwane University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the `cycle is the trend' hypothesis. We investigate how far permanent and transitory productivity shocks can account for the dynamics observed in the South African business cycle over the period 1946--2014. By estimating a standard small open economy real business cycle model and its financial frictions augmented counterpart, we show that permanent productivity shocks are more important than transitory ones in explaining this country's business cycle fluctuations. This finding supports the `cycle is the trend' hypothesis in the South African business cycle. The model with financial frictions successfully mimics the downward-sloping high autocorrelation of trade balance to output ratio observed in the data, whereas the benchmark model produces a flat autocorrelation function. Financial frictions such as country risk premium shocks help to explain the fluctuations in investment and in the trade balance to output ratio. |
| Keywords: | Small open economy, real business cycle, permanent shock, transitory shock, financial frictions, Bayesian |
| JEL: | E13 E32 F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers268&r=ger |
| By: | Sunde, Tafirenyika |
| Abstract: | The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causality. The article confirmed cointegration between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The article indicates that both foreign direct investment and exports spur economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis found unidirectional causality between economic growth and foreign direct investment running from foreign direct investment to economic growth, unidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and exports running from foreign direct investment to exports and bidirectional causality between economic growth and exports. The article confirms the FDI-led growth hypothesis for South Africa. On the policy front, the government should stimulate foreign direct investment through incentives to investors, creation of a good macroeconomic environment and a careful utilisation of loose monetary policy to grow the economy. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, foreign direct investment, ARDL, stationarity, South Africa |
| JEL: | E2 E22 E6 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72382&r=ger |
| By: | Somwrita Sarkar; Sanjay Chawla |
| Abstract: | Inference methods in traditional statistics, machine learning and data mining assume that data is generated from an independent and identically distributed (iid) process. Spatial data exhibits behavior for which the iid assumption must be relaxed. For example, the standard approach in spatial regression is to assume the existence of a contiguity matrix which captures the spatial autoregressive properties of the data. However all spatial methods, till now, have assumed that the contiguity matrix is given apriori or can be estimated by using a spatial similarity function. In this paper we propose a convex optimization formulation to solve the spatial autoregressive regression (SAR) model in which both the contiguity matrix and the non-spatial regression parameters are unknown and inferred from the data. We solve the problem using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) which provides a solution which is both robust and efficient. While our approach is general we use data from housing markets of Boston and Sydney to both guide the analysis and validate our results. A novel side effect of our approach is the automatic discovery of spatial clusters which translate to submarkets in the housing data sets. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.01999&r=ger |
| By: | Tyrefors Hinnerich, Björn (Department of Economics); Vlachos, Jonas (Department of Economics, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Sweden has a school voucher system with universal coverage and full acceptance of corporate providers. Using a value added approach, we find that students at upper-secondary voucher schools on average score 0.06 standard deviations lower on externally graded standardized tests in first year core courses. The negative impact is larger among lower achieving students (but not among immigrant students), the same students who are most prone to attend voucher schools. For high achieving students, the voucher school impact is around zero. Comparing internal and external evaluations of the same standardized tests, we find that voucher schools are 0.14 standard deviations more generous than municipal schools in their internal test grading. The greater leniency in test grading is relatively uniform across different groups, but more pronounced among students at academic than vocational programs. The findings are consistent with voucher schools responding more to differences in educational preferences than municipal schools. |
| Keywords: | Voucher schools; Student achievement; Grading standards |
| JEL: | H40 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1127&r=ger |
| By: | Jonathon M. Clegg (Faculty of History, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Rational retrospective voting models have dominated the literature on election forecasting and the economic vote since they were first proposed by Anthony Downs in 1957. The theory views voters as appraisers of incumbent government’s past performance, which acts as the principal source of information individuals use when making their vote. Pure retrospective voting requires far less of the electorate in order to hold a government accountable and empirical work based on this theory has been very adept at predicting election outcomes and explaining individual voting decisions. In terms of the time period assessed to form judgements on past performance however, there is a surprising disconnect between the theoretical line of thought and actual testing. The sensible assumption of retrospective voting models is that voters, looking to judge a government’s past performance, should assess changes in their own welfare over an entire term of office, with little or no discounting of past events. The majority of empirical studies however, focus on economic performance over shorter time horizons, usually within a year of an election. There have only been a handful of studies attempting to empirically test the correct temporal relationship between changes in economic indicators and election outcomes, despite its importance for retrospective voting models and democratic accountability. This working paper empirically tests over which time horizons changes in macroeconomic fundamentals continue to have a significant bearing on election outcomes in Post War Britain. It finds that longer-term measures of economic change, over entire government terms, are better at predicting changes in incumbent’s vote shares than shorter-term measures, closer to the election period. This has important consequences for future voting models and is a promising result for democratic accountability. |
| JEL: | D72 C52 |
| Date: | 2016–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_143&r=ger |
| By: | Bustamante, Néstor Miguel; Bertolotti, María Isabel; Liberman, Carlos Damián; Buono, J. J. |
| Abstract: | En la República Argentina la Ley de Pesca Nº 24.922 sancionada en el año 1997 originó el cambio del régimen de una administración pesquera tradicional a un régimen de administración por Cuotas Individuales Transferibles de Captura (CITC), que fue considerado por los legisladores, como más efectivo para favorecer la explotación sustentable de los recursos vivos del mar. Las cuotas individuales de capturas (CICs) consisten en asignar a cada unidad de pesca (buque, empresa pesquera o pescador individual) una porción de la cuota total anual de captura (CTC) por un período de tiempo. En algunos sistemas, la cuota individual asignada puede ser modificada mediante la transferibilidad de porciones entre las unidades productivas participantes, generando así un sistema de cuotas individuales y transferibles de captura (CITCs). El 11 de noviembre de 2009, mediante el Acta Nº 49/2009, el Consejo Federal Pesquero, en cumplimiento de la Ley 24.922, Régimen Federal de Pesca, estableció las definiciones básicas que hacen a la política de administración de los recursos pesqueros, en lo atinente al ordenamiento e implementación del sistema de Administración por Cuotas Individuales Transferibles de Captura. En el nuevo Régimen Federal de Pesca se establece que "...a partir de la vigencia de esta ley se asignará una cuota de captura a cada permiso de pesca, tanto a los preexistentes como a los que se otorguen en el futuro... Facultase al Consejo Federal Pesquero para que reglamente y dicte todas las normas necesarias para establecer un régimen de administración de los recursos pesqueros mediante el otorgamiento de cuotas de captura por especie, por buque, zonas de pesca y tipo de flota...". |
| Keywords: | Cuota de Pesca; Administración Pesquera; Argentina; |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2497&r=ger |
| By: | Anthanasius FomumTita and Meshach Jesse Aziakpono |
| Abstract: | Although the financial sector of Africa has witnessed massive reforms to enhance its ability to support economic activities, reduce poverty and lower income inequality, Africa remains the poorest region and the second most unequal region in the world after Latin America. Despite these established facts, little empirical research exists on the relationship between financial development and income inequality in Africa. This study investigates the finance-income inequality nexus in a balanced panel of 15 African countries using the Augmented Mean Group estimator to determine if there is a threshold level of financial development or income inequality is related to the sectoral structure of the economy.Overall evidence suggests that the finance-inequality relationship in the sample of African countries studied is non-linear and ranges from an inverted u-shape to a u-shape depending on the measure of financial development. Policies to boost financial development should be preceded by financial inclusion but these policies should be separated. Financial inclusion policies should focus on the quality and suitability of financial products to ensure usage and avoid dominant accounts as well as consumer protection. |
| Keywords: | Augmented mean group, financial development, heterogeneous slopes, income inequality and poverty |
| JEL: | C23 G21 D63 I3 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:614&r=ger |
| By: | Amrita Dhillon; Pramila Krishnan; Manasa Patnam; Carlo Perroni |
| Abstract: | The literature on the effects of natural resource abundance on economic growth is converging to the view that institutions play a central role. In this paper, we exploit the break up of three of the biggest Indian states, comprising areas with some of the largest endowments of natural resources in the country, to explore how the link between electoral accountability and natural resource abundance can explain differences in outcomes. Our theoretical framework shows that while states inheriting a larger share of natural resources after break up are potentially richer, the spatial distribution of these natural resources within these state can worsen economic outcomes by lowering electoral accountability. We employ a sharp regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of secession and concentrated resources on growth and inequality at the sub-regional level, using data on satellite measurements of night-time lights. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, the economic effect of secession is generally favourable. However, states that inherit a large fraction of mineral rich constituencies experience worse outcomes. This may be accounted for by lower electoral accountability in those areas. |
| Keywords: | Natural Resources and Economic Performance, Political Secession, Fiscal Federalism |
| JEL: | H77 C72 O13 O43 Q34 |
| Date: | 2016–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1639&r=ger |
| By: | Cosimo Beverelli; Matteo Fiorini; Bernard Hoekman |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of services trade restrictiveness on manufacturing productivity for a broad cross-section of countries at different stages of economic development. Decreasing services trade restrictiveness has a positive indirect impact on the manufacturing sectors that use services as intermediate inputs in production. We identify a critical role of local institutions in shaping this effect: countries with high institutional capacity benefit the most from services trade policy reforms in terms of increased productivity in downstream industries. We argue that this reflects the characteristics of many services and services trade and provide a theoretical framework to formalize our suggested mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | services trade, institutions, productivity |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F61 F63 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/63&r=ger |
| By: | Jaelani, Aan |
| Abstract: | Public financial management by the government is very important in view of the level of welfare in Indonesia is still low, as there are still much poverty with the level of fulfillment of the needs of low, corruption that occurs in every area of government, income distribution is uneven, low economic growth, and various irregularities other budget. With a qualitative approach that emphasises the phenomenon of the social reality and the country's financial management practices in Indonesia, the approach to history and historical analysis is able to provide solutions to the existing problems. Reviewing public financial revenues and government spending become instruments in creating public welfare |
| Keywords: | Budget management, public finance, budgeting, welfare |
| JEL: | B15 G18 H2 H6 P5 Z12 |
| Date: | 2015–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72340&r=ger |
| By: | Carlos Viana de Carvalho (Department of Economics PUC-Rio); EriC Hsu (UC Berkeley); Fernanda Necchio (FRB San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | The Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on interest rates is often regarded as an important constraint on monetary policy. To assess how the ZLB affected the Fed's ability to conduct policy, we estimate the effects of Fed communication on yields of different maturities in the pre-ZLB and ZLB periods. Before the ZLB period, communication affects both short- and long-dated yields. In contrast, during the ZLB period, the reaction of yields to communication is concentrated in longer-dated yields. Our findings support the view that the ZLB did not put such a critical constraint on monetary policy, as the Fed retained some ability to affect long-term yields through communication. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rio:texdis:649&r=ger |
| By: | Ennio Bilancini; Leonardo Boncinelli (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the long run convention emerging from stag-hunt interactions when errors converge to zero at a rate that is positively related to the payoff earned in the previous period. We refer to such errors as condition-dependent mistakes. We find that, if interactions are sufficiently stable over time, then the payoff-dominant convention emerges in the long run. Moreover, if interactions are neither too stable nor too volatile, then the risk-dominant convention is selected in the long run. Finally, if interactions are quite volatile, then the maximin convention emerges even if it is not risk-dominant. We introduce the notion of \emph{condition-adjusted-risk-dominance} to characterize the convention emerging in the long run under condition-dependent mistakes. We contrast these results with the results obtained under alternative error models: uniform mistakes, i.e., errors converge to zero at a rate that is constant over states, and payoff-dependent mistakes, i.e., errors converge to zero at a rate that depends on expected losses. |
| Keywords: | risk-dominant; payoff-dominant; maximin; mistakes; stag hunt; stochastic stability. |
| JEL: | C72 C73 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2016_11.rdf&r=ger |
| By: | Quan-Hoang Vuong; Ha Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Introduction: The phenomenon of desperate patients live together in voluntary co-location clusters has been emerging over the past decade in Vietnam. Patients seek to share facilities, reduce costs and rely on one another's support to make life safer and less miserable. There has not been much research on these clusters and patients' bonding to their community.Methods: The study uses a cross-section data set containing 336 observations from four patients' colocation clusters, collected from 2015Q4 to 2016Q1. The analysis employs the baseline category logits model for dichotomous variable, and reports logistic regression results. The main hypothesis is both economic conditions and in-kind benefits received from the community have influence onpatients' bonding to their community. Results: Both personal economic conditions and benefits are found statistically significant, but the in-kind benefits decrease the bonding strength of the community, while the impact of economic instability is as expected. The strongest factor that serves to bond the patients together is the free will and predetermination of patients themselves to join the community.Discussion: Patients in unstable conditions will more likely to stick to the colocation community. But those in better economic conditions show a more complex need and their perceptions change depending on the specific conditions. In-kind benefits are not what poorer patients expect and when they see these benefits from the community as “substitutes” for financial means, their expectation of sticking to the community declines. |
| Keywords: | patients' quality of life; medical expenses; personal economic conditions; in-kind benefits; bonding strength |
| JEL: | I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/232665&r=ger |
| By: | Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez (Department of Quantitative Methods in Economics, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.); Marta Gómez-Puig (Department of Economic Theory, Universitat de Barcelona. 08034 Barcelona, Spain.); Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (Complutense Institute of International Studies Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid.) |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each country and apply panel model techniques to investigate its determinants. Finally, to gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness at different stages of the recent sovereign debt crisis. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt crisis; Euro area; Market linkages; Vector autoregression; Variance decomposition. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:wpaper:1501&r=ger |
| By: | James Gaughan (Economics of Social and Health Care Research Unit, Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Hugh Gravelle (Economics of Social and Health Care Research Unit, Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Luigi Siciliani (Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, UK) |
| Abstract: | Delayed discharges of patients from hospital, commonly known as bed-blocking, is a long standing policy concern. Delays can increase the overall cost of treatment and may worsen patient outcomes. We investigate how delayed discharges vary by hospital type (Acute, Specialist, Mental Health, Teaching), and the extent to which such differences can be explained by demography, casemix, the availability of long-term care and hospital governance as reflected in whether the hospital has Foundation Trust status, which gives greater financial autonomy and flexibility in staffing and pay. We use a new panel database of delays in all English NHS hospital Trusts from 2011/12 to 2013/14. Employing count data models, we find that a greater local supply of long-term care (care home beds) is associated with fewer delays. Hospitals which are Foundation Trusts have fewer delayed discharges and might therefore be used as exemplars of good practice in managing delays. Mental Health Trusts have more delayed discharges than Acute Trusts but a smaller proportion of them are attributed to the NHS, possibly indicating a relatively greater lack of adequate community care for mental health patients. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chy:respap:133cherp&r=ger |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana; Aithal, Shubhrajyotsna |
| Abstract: | Innovations in nanotechnology are making a revolution in manufacturing and production, creating new materials and products through novel processes for commercial applications. New products based on nanotechnology with novel characteristics are continued to grow and benefit the society. Being general purpose technology, nanotechnology is expected to support all fields of the society, but some fields like medicine, energy, environmental remediation, robotics, manufacturing, commerce, and space exploration are expected to undergo explosive developments. In this paper, we made a detailed analysis of advantages, benefits, constraints, and disadvantages of progress in nanotechnology for the society and discussed the reason for the failure of estimated timeline for realizing various generations of progress and proposed a modified timeframe for anticipated nanotechnology innovations. Based on the business perspective, we have developed a nanotechnology products/services commercialization model and discussed the opportunities for nanotechnology commercialization. The paper also contains a detailed analysis of common commercialization challenges faced by nanotechnology firms including time lag, valley of death, lack of infrastructure, lack of standard for evaluation, bureaucratic delays, dearth of funding, and lack of trained professionals, brand image, and public support. Finally, we have mentioned how the various corporate business strategies can be used in the successful business of nanotechnology products and services. |
| Keywords: | Commercialisations of nanotech products, Challenges in commercialization of new products, Nanotechnology commercialization model. |
| JEL: | M1 M10 |
| Date: | 2016–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72337&r=ger |
| By: | Antonis Papapantoleon; Robert Wardenga |
| Abstract: | We consider the class of affine LIBOR models with multiple curves, which is an analytically tractable class of discrete tenor models that easily accommodates positive or negative interest rates and positive spreads. By introducing an interpolating function, we extend the affine LIBOR models to a continuous tenor and derive expressions for the instantaneous forward rate and the short rate. We show that the continuous tenor model is arbitrage-free, that the analytical tractability is retained under the spot martingale measure, and that under mild conditions an interpolating function can be found such that the extended model fits any initial forward curve. This allows us to compute value adjustments (i.e. XVAs) consistently, by solving the corresponding `pre-default' BSDE. As an application, we compute the price and value adjustments for a basis swap, and study the model risk associated to different interpolating functions. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.03522&r=ger |
| By: | Stavins, Joanna (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Connolly and Stavins (2015) showed that payment behavior is strongly correlated with consumers’ demographic and income attributes over the 2009–2013 period. In this paper, we apply a random effects panel data model with sample selection based on Wooldridge (1995) to estimate the effect of each attribute on payment-instrument adoption and use. We find that age, education, income, and race are significant in explaining payment behavior even after controlling for all the other attributes of consumers and for payment-instrument characteristics. Most notably, the lowest-income, lowest-education, and minority consumers adopt a very limited set of payment instruments compared with their counterparts even when education and age are controlled for. These consumers also have a significantly different pattern of payment use conditional on adoption; they rely significantly more on cash and less on credit cards for their transactions. The data do not allow us to isolate supply-side and demand-side factors to explain the causes of these discrepancies. Women use significantly less cash than men, but use more debit cards, checks, and online banking bill pay, even when we control for the degree of bill-paying responsibility they have for their households. Single people use more cash, while married people use more checks. Although characteristics of payment instruments, such as cost, convenience, and security, significantly affect payment behavior, consumers’ socio-demographic attributes explain most of the variation. Separating the effects of consumers’ age from the effects of birth cohorts indicates that in most cases age and birth-cohort trends move together. |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E41 |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:16-5&r=ger |
| By: | Dietrich, Antje-Mareike |
| Abstract: | Many governments promote green technological innovation within the automobile sector as a means of combating climate change. Most of these innovations are driven by alternative fuels. Buyer's premiums and governmental investment in service infrastructure are widely used. This paper investigates the question regarding whether market intervention is adequate by considering the two-sided market character of the automobile market. This study shows that network effects, competition effects triggered by more automobile users and decreasing marginal utilities of further service stations determine the welfare-efficient extent of governmental intervention. The results of the analysis indicate that governmental promotion of service infrastructure is reasonable, although governments should be cautious about buyer's premiums. |
| Keywords: | network effects,two-sided markets,platform intermediation,alternative fuel vehicles,climate change,regulation |
| JEL: | L15 L92 L98 O33 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tbswps:16&r=ger |
| By: | Lauren L. Schmitz; Dalton Conley |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether draft-lottery estimates of the causal effect of Vietnam-era military service on schooling vary by genetic propensity toward educational attainment. To capture the complex genetic architecture that underlies the bio-developmental pathways behavioral traits and evoked environments associated with educational attainment, we construct a polygenic score (PGS) for the Vietnam-era cohort in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) that aggregates thousands of individual loci across the human genome, weighted by effect sizes derived from a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) for years of education. Our findings suggest veterans with below average PGSs for educational attainment completed fewer years of schooling than comparable non-veterans with the same PGS, primarily due to fewer years of college education. On the other hand, we do not find any difference in the educational attainment of veterans and non-veterans with above average PGSs. Results show that public policies and exogenous environments may induce heterogeneous treatment effects by genetic disposition. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 I26 J01 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22393&r=ger |
| By: | Luis Fernando Trejos Rosero; Aura Violeta Posada Ramírez |
| Abstract: | Este artículo tiene como objetivo hacer una aproximación —a partir de teorías explicativas del crimen organizado—, a los medios y fines utilizados por el paramilitarismo, más específicamente por el Frente José Pablo Díaz del Bloque Norte de las Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia en la ciudad de Barranquilla. También se busca demostrar que la presencia del paramilitarismo en la ciudad de Barranquilla (Colombia) no obedeció a una estrategia contrainsurgente sino a sus estrechos vínculos con el narcotráfico y el crimen organizado. |
| Keywords: | Paramilitarismo, mercados de violencia, crimen organizado, violencia, mafia. |
| JEL: | K49 |
| Date: | 2014–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014768&r=ger |
| By: | Lucia Corno (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Queen Mary, University of London); Alessandra Voena (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | When markets are incomplete, cultural norms may play an important role in shaping economic behavior. In this paper, we explore whether income shocks increase the probability of child marriages in societies that engage in bride price payments – transfers from the groom to the bride’s parents at marriage. We develop a simple model in which households are exposed to income volatility and have no access to credit markets. If a daughter marries, the household obtains a bride price and has fewer members to support. In this framework, girls have a higher probability of marrying early when their parents have higher marginal utility of consumption because of adverse income shocks. We test the prediction of the model by exploiting variation in rainfall shocks over a woman’s life cycle, using a survey dataset from rural Tanzania. We find that adverse shocks during teenage years increase the probability of early marriages and early fertility among women. |
| Keywords: | Child marriage, marriage payments, income shocks, consumption smoothing. |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:16/08&r=ger |
| By: | Angrisani, Marco; Hurd, Michael D.; Rohwedder, Susann |
| Abstract: | We use panel data at the household level on a complete inventory of household spending and assets to estimate the spending response to the sharp and largely unexpected declines in house and stock market prices that occurred in the Great Recession. Our data span the period 2001-2011, so that we are able to separate trends in spending from innovations in response to unexpected wealth change. We find the marginal propensity to consume out of an unexpected housing wealth change to be seven cents per dollar, and about four cents per dollar out of financial wealth. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1101&r=ger |
| By: | Benth, Fred Espen; Paraschiv, Florentina |
| Abstract: | Structural models for forward electricity prices are of great relevance nowadays, given the major structural changes in the market due to the increase of renewable energy in the production mix. In this study, we derive a spatio-temporal dynamical model based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach under the Musiela parametrization, which ensures an arbitrage-free model for electricity Forward prices. The model is fitted to a unique data set of historical price Forward curves. As a particular feature of the model, we disentangle the temporal from spatial (maturity) effects on the dynamics of forward prices, and shed light on the statistical properties of risk premia, of the noise volatility term structure and of the spatio-temporal noise correlation structures. We find that the short-term risk premia oscillates around zero, but becomes negative in the long run. We identify the Samuelson effect in the volatility term structure and volatility bumps, explained by market fundamentals. Furthermore we find evidence for coloured noise and correlated residuals, which we model by a Hilbert space-valued normal inverse Gaussian Lévy process with a suitable covariance functional. |
| Keywords: | spatio-temporal models, price forward curves, term structure volatility, risk premia, electricity markets |
| JEL: | C02 C13 C23 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2016:11&r=ger |
| By: | Etna Mercedes Bayona Velásquez |
| Abstract: | El propósito de este artículo es analizar el impacto de las explotaciones de carbón en el crecimiento económico de los departamentos del Cesar y La Guajira, Colombia. Para estimar el efecto de la explotación de carbón sobre la economía de estos departamentos se utilizó inicialmente la estadística descriptiva. Luego se hizo una regresión de corte transversal y su método de estimación fue por Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios - MCO. Se realizó el análisis de efecto causal de ambos departamentos, utilizando dos funciones: una con la producción minera y otra con la ciudad minera (es decir, municipios productores de carbón), esto para evitar problemas de multicolinealidad que se pueden presentar en ambas variables. Se observó una alta dependencia del PIB de Cesar y La Guajira con la producción de carbón, lo que se refleja en la mayor participación que tienen los municipios mineros dentro del PIB departamental. |
| Keywords: | Crecimiento económico, maldición de los recursos naturales, carbón, Colombia. |
| JEL: | F10 I11 I15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014789&r=ger |
| By: | Powell, David |
| Abstract: | Panel data are often used in empirical work to account for additive fixed time and unit effects. More recently, the synthetic control estimator relaxes the assumption of additive fixed effects for case studies, using pre-treatment outcomes to create a weighted average of other units which best approximate the treated unit. The synthetic control estimator is currently limited to case studies in which the treatment variable can be represented by a single indicator variable. Applying this estimator more generally, such as applications with multiple treatment variables or a continuous treatment variable, is problematic. This paper generalizes the case study synthetic control estimator to permit estimation of the effect of multiple treatment variables, which can be discrete or continuous. The estimator jointly estimates the impact of the treatment variables and creates a synthetic control for each unit. Additive fixed effect models are a special case of this estimator. Because the number of units in panel data and synthetic control applications is often small, I discuss an inference procedure for fixed N. The estimation technique generates correlations across clusters so the inference procedure will also account for this dependence. Simulations show that the estimator works well even when additive fixed effect models do not. I estimate the impact of the minimum wage on the employment rate of teenagers. I estimate an elasticity of -0.44, substantially larger than estimates generated using additive fixed effect models, and reject the null hypothesis that there is no effect. |
| Keywords: | synthetic control estimation, finite inference, minimum wage, teen employment, panel data, interactive fixed effects, correlated clusters |
| JEL: | C33 J23 J31 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1142&r=ger |
| By: | Eusepi, Stefano (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Preston, Bruce (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | New Keynesian theory identifies a set of principles central to the design and implementation of monetary policy. These principles rely on the ability of a central bank to manage expectations precisely, with policy prescriptions typically derived under the assumption of perfect information and full rationality. However, the challenging macroeconomic environment bequeathed by the financial crisis has led many to question the efficacy of monetary policy, and, particularly, to question whether central banks can influence expectations with as much control as previously thought. In this paper, we survey the literature on monetary policy design under imperfect knowledge and asses to what degree its policy prescriptions deviate from the rational expectations benchmark. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; expectations formation; learning |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:782&r=ger |
| By: | Pannicke, Julia |
| Abstract: | Existing theoretical and empirical studies on Media Bias are subjects of controversial discussions in the literature. However, scientific literatures on Media Bias establish empirical evidence for a positive impact of advertising volume on media coverage. To get in line with the debated literature about whether biases occur, this economic paper presents an empirical analysis of a possible (commercial) Media Bias influenced by advertising expenditure in monthly women´s magazines. The results of a linear panel model regression, a panel poisson regression, as well as those of a panel negative binomial regression model show that there is a positive correlation with the amount of advertising expenditure on the coverage of a company that purchased advertisements on the women's magazines in Germany. A positive correlation between advertising volume and the nomination as well as prize winning of (cosmetic) products could also be found. |
| Keywords: | media bias,advertisement,advertising volume,coverage,two-sided markets |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:99&r=ger |
| By: | Piotr Krajewski (Institute of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz, Poland) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effects of fiscal policy in non-EMU Central and Eastern European counties. The analysis is based on new Keynesian model, which takes into account both optimizing Ricardian households and non-Ricardian households with liquidity constraints. Results of the study indicate that the share of non-Ricardians has significant impact on fiscal multipliers. The government spending multiplier reaches 3 in the country with highest share of non- Ricardian households, whereas in the country with lowest share of non-Ricardians is lower than one. Also effects of government spending shocks on consumption are very sensitive to the share of households with liquidity constraints. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, government spending, new Keynesian model, heterogeneity of households, non-Ricardian households. |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:2/2016&r=ger |
| By: | Fabrizio Montanari (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Claudio Giachetti (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Fabrizio Castellucci (Bocconi University); Stefano Li Pira (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between an actorÕs status and his/her decision to conform to extant social norms of behavior or to deviate from them is a common theme in the managerial and sociological research. Drawing on previous studies that have highlighted the presence of a Ushaped relationship between status and nonconformity, whereby low-status and high-status actors are more likely to deviate from accepted norms of behavior, this paper aims at investigating how reputation moderates the relationship between status and nonconformity. By relying on a sample of more than 1,500 films introduced from 1990 to 2011 by 730 Italian film producing companies, we hypothesize and find that an organizationÕs economic reputation negatively moderates the curvilinear U-shaped relationship between its status and nonconformity in a way that, for high reputation, the high propensity of a high-status organization to non-conform is mitigated. |
| Keywords: | Status, non-conformity, reputation, film industry |
| JEL: | L1 L2 Z1 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:120&r=ger |
| By: | Richardson, Gary (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Van Horn, Patrick (Southwestern University) |
| Abstract: | In 1931, a financial crisis began in Austria, spread to Germany, forced Britain to abandon the gold standard, crossed the Atlantic, and afflicted financial institutions in the United States. This article describes how banks in New York City, the central money market of the United States, reacted to this trans-Atlantic financial disturbance. An array of sources tells a consistent tale. Banks in New York anticipated events in Europe, prepared for them by accumulating substantial reserves, and during the crisis, continued business as usual. New York's leading bankers deliberately and collectively decided on the business-as-usual policy in order to minimize the impact of the panic in the United States. |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 G21 G28 N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2016–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:16-07&r=ger |
| By: | Thomas COUDERT (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Thierry BETTI |
| Abstract: | Since 2010 public employment and public-sector salaries have been significantly reduced in most Euro Area member states. In this article we show to what extent these cuts in the public sector have been costly particularly in terms of employment and output. In a New Keynesian model with a two-sector labor market, we demonstrate that the cost of these spending cuts on employment and output is significantly larger in periods of high unemployment. We also exhibit that cuts in public employment and wage in a Eurozone prone to high unemployment have only a limited ability to reduce deficit. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Public Employment, Public Wage, Labor Market, Unemployment. |
| JEL: | E62 J38 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2016-05&r=ger |
| By: | Henri Bogaert |
| Abstract: | Improving the functioning of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is back on the agenda, especially as the decline in public investment resulting from fiscal adjustment processes implemented according to the current Pact rules is seen as a brake on future economic growth. When discussions about a Pact revision in 2005 were under way, several major authors (for instance: Blanchard and Giavazzi in CEPR February 2004) suggested reverting to a golden rule under which the deficit would exclude investment expenditure, net of amortization. The Pact was revised in 2005 but this proposal was not adopted. This paper presents a new attempt to integrate a proper accounting of investment into the Pact by modifying the formula of the MTO (Medium Term Objective for the budget balance), without losing the other dimensions of the present formula: the partial provisioning of the so-called cost of ageing and the accelerated debt reduction for highly indebted countries. In this way, the public investment programme becomes a centrepiece of the structural policy of a government and not the first instrument of a cyclical policy. |
| JEL: | H6 |
| Date: | 2016–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1601&r=ger |
| By: | Jochen Lüdering (University of Giessen); Peter Tillmann (University of Giessen) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we dissect the public debate about the future course of monetary policy and trace the effects of selected topics of this discourse on U.S. asset prices. We focus on the “taper tantrum” episode in 2013, a period with large revisions in expectations about Fed policy. Based on a novel data set of 90,000 Twitter messages (“tweets”) covering the entire debate of Fed tapering on Twitter we use Latent Dirichlet Allocation, a computational text analysis tool to quantify the content of the discussion. Several estimated topic frequencies are then included in a VAR model to estimate the effects of topic shocks on asset prices. We find that the discussion about Fed policy on social media contains price-relevant information. Shocks to shares of “tantrum”-, “QE”- and “data”-related topics are shown to lead to significant asset price changes. We also show that the effects are mostly due to changes in the term premium of yields consistent with the portfolio balance channel of unconventional monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Fed, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, Text Analysis, VAR |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201612&r=ger |
| By: | Mihai, Florin-Constantin; Gnoni, Maria-Grazia |
| Abstract: | Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment management (E-waste or WEEE) is a crucial issue in the solid waste management sector with global interconnections between well-developed, transitional and developing countries. Consumption society and addiction to technology dictate the daily life in high and middle-income countries where population consumes large amounts of EEE products (electrical and electronic equipment) which sooner become e-waste. This fraction is a fast-growing waste stream which needs special treatment and management due to the toxic potential of public health and environment. On the other hand, the e-waste contains valuable materials which may be recovered (precious metals, Cu) reused and recycled (metals, plastics) by various industries mitigating the consumption of natural resources. |
| Keywords: | waste management; WEEE; e-waste, recycling, electronics, sustainability |
| JEL: | F10 F64 I15 I18 J18 K32 O14 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72284&r=ger |
| By: | Krylova, Elizaveta |
| Abstract: | This paper computes time-varying indicators of the relative importance of different credit spread determinants, including rating, sector and country attribution as well as the coupon rate, maturity and liquidity on the basis of the comprehensive dataset of individual bonds. Additionally, it decomposes variances of rating-specific (country- and sector-specific) spread indices into the impacts of explanatory variables. Both cross-sectional and time series analyses confirm that the rating effect was the major driver of corporate bond spreads during the pre-crisis period, while the recent financial crisis was characterised by increased cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity. The sector effects in corporate spreads together with the rating effects for high-rated and low-rated bonds are found to be more closely linked to default rates and stock indices, whereas the common effect also to be linked to business cycle conditions. The dataset also allows documenting a break-up in the existence of country ceilings for corporate bond ratings during the crisis. JEL Classification: G12, C21, C22, E44 |
| Keywords: | corporate bond spreads, credit risk |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161912&r=ger |
| By: | Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Queiroz, Bernardo L.; Calazans, Julia A. |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of demographic and educational changes on the earnings and returns to schooling of workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational and economic variations within each country over time, using Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results suggest that demographic and educational transitions generate impact on earnings and on returns to education. The proportion of people in age-education groups tends to have a negative impact on earnings. These impacts are more detrimental among age-education groups with higher education, but they are having less of a negative effect over time. We also find that the concentration of skilled labor has positive impacts on the rates of returns to education and that they are greater than those observed in more developed countries. Moreover, in Brazil and Mexico, these effects are observed throughout the income distribution, contrary to what is observed in studies for the United States. |
| Keywords: | demographic transition, education transition, cohort size, earnings, labor markets, Brazil, Mexico |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1089&r=ger |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.); Jiarong Tian (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University Taiwan.) |
| Abstract: | The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets. |
| Keywords: | Co-volatility spillovers, Crude oil, Financial markets, Spot, Futures, Diagonal BEKK, Optimal dynamic hedging. |
| JEL: | C58 D53 G13 G31 O13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1609&r=ger |
| By: | Vedran Recher (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the relationship between unemployment and crime is analysed. A panel of 20 Croatian counties over the years 1998-2013 is used to estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of various groups of property and violent crimes. According to the theory of economics of crime, increase in unemployment leads to higher crime rates. A fixed-effects model, including time- and county-specific effects and several covariates, is estimated. The results show there is no impact of unemployment on aggregate property crimes. For all violent crimes bar rapes, the results oppose the theory and intuition. The unexpected results are discussed in the context of the Croatian-specific macro-environment. |
| Keywords: | crime, unemployment, fixed-effects model, panel data |
| JEL: | K42 J00 J69 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iez:wpaper:1602&r=ger |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Kefei You |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether the RMB is in the process of replacing the US dollar as the anchor currency in nine ASEAN countries, and also the linkages between the ASEAN currencies and a regional currency unit. A long-memory (fractional integration) model allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks is estimated for these purposes (Gil-Alana, 2008). The results suggest that the ASEAN currencies are much more interlinked than previously thought, whether or not breaks are taken into account, which provides support for a regional currency index as an anchor. Moreover, incorporating a break shows that the linkages between these currencies and the RMB and the US dollar respectively are equally important, and in fact in recent years the former have become stronger than the latter. Therefore including the RMB in the regional index should be considered. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN currencies, Chinese RMB, US dollar peg, fractional integration, breaks |
| JEL: | F31 C22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1590&r=ger |
| By: | Seres, Gyula (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | Manipulating prices in auctions raises antitrust concerns. Collusion lowers the revenue of the auctioneer and creates information rents. Bid rigging is a prevalent phenomenon and the affected market is enormous. Public procurement amounts to between 10 and 25 percent of national GDP in industrialized countries. This doctoral thesis contributes to the literature by showing that the source of information asymmetry between cartel members has a profound effect on the feasibility and form of collusion. This point is not without policy relevance. Results of this thesis can contribute to our understanding on combating collusion and promoting allocative efficiency. Chapter 1 builds up a model showing public revelation of information by the auctioneer may foster cartel formation and decrease expected revenue, contradicting the Linkage Principle. Chapter 2 investigates the form of cartel mechanisms. A theoretical model shows why knockout auctions are the prevalent form of bid rigging. Full information revelation within cartel is generally not possible in equilibrium. Chapter 3 is an experimental study focusing on the effect of auction cartels on allocative efficiency. Robust estimates show that the effect is negative and significant. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:c4bba81c-5f87-4fba-b6c4-432ef4a34d70&r=ger |
| By: | Oasis Kodila-Tedika (Université de Kinshasa Département d’Eco); Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Matthias Cinyabuguma (The World Bank Group) |
| Abstract: | Are there contemporary development effects of African resistance to European domination? This question is the primary issue addressed by this inquiry. We establish that African resistance has had adverse effects on post-colonial African development and discuss possible channels of such causality. This relationship is robust to alternative model and to controlling for the outliers. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Colonization; Slavery; Development |
| JEL: | N17 P48 O11 O43 O55 P14 P17 P51 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/016&r=ger |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Uchenna Efobi (Covenant University, Nigeria); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the effect of globalisation on governance in 51 African countries for the period 1996-2011. Ten bundled and unbundled governance indicators and four globalisation variables are used. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. The following findings are established. First, on political governance, only social globalisation improves political stability while only economic globalisation does not increase voice & accountability and political governance. Second, with regard to economic governance: (i) only economic globalisation significantly promote regulation quality; (ii) social globalisation and general globalisation significantly advance government effectiveness and (iii) economic globalisation and general globalisation significantly promote economic governance. Third, as concerns institutional governance, whereas only social globalisation improves corruption-control, the effects of globalisation dynamics on the rule of law and institutional governance are not significant. Fourth, the impacts of social globalisation and general globalisation are positive on general governance. It follows that: (i) political governance is driven by voice and accountability compared to political stability; (ii) economic governance is promoted by both regulation quality and government effectiveness from specific globalisation angles and (iii) globalisation does not improve institutional governance for the most part. Theoretical contributions and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Governance; Globalization |
| JEL: | F10 F30 I30 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/017&r=ger |
| By: | Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje |
| Abstract: | Should asset testing be used in means-tested programs? These programs target low-income people, but low income can result not only from low productivity but also from low labor supply. We aim to show that in the asymmetric information environment, there is a positive role for asset testing. We focus on Medicaid, one of the largest means-tested programs in the US, and we ask two questions: 1) Does Medicaid distort work incentives? 2) Can asset testing improve the insurance-incentives trade-off of Medicaid? Our tool is a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents that matches many important features of the data. We find that 23% of Medicaid enrollees do not work in order to be eligible. These distortions are costly: if individuals' productivity was observable and could be used to determine Medicaid eligibility, this results in substantial ex-ante welfare gains. When productivity is unobservable, asset testing is effective in eliminating labor supply distortions, but to minimize saving distortions, asset limits should be different for workers and non-workers. This work-dependent asset testing can produce welfare gains close to the case of observable productivity. |
| Keywords: | health insurance, Medicaid, labor supply, asset testing, general equilibrium, life-cycle models |
| JEL: | D52 D91 E21 H53 I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72413&r=ger |
| By: | Qian, Haoqi; Wu, Libo; Tang, Weiqi |
| Abstract: | A country’s existing emission standard policy will lead to a “lock in” effect. When the country plans to adopt new market-based instruments to control greenhouse gas emissions, it must consider this effect as it chooses among instruments to avoid larger efficiency loss. In this paper, we find that the “lock in” effect will cause a kink point to occur on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve. This change of shape for the MAC curve reminds us to be cautious in choosing market-based instruments when applying Weitzman’s rule. We also introduce this concept into a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China and simulate MAC curves for all regions. After applying Weitzman’s rule, we propose a timeline for introducing price instruments under different marginal benefit (MB) curve scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Lock-in Effect; Marginal Abatement Cost Curve; Cap and Trade of Carbon Emissions Rights; Carbon Tax |
| JEL: | C68 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72470&r=ger |
| By: | Tode, Christian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency is considered to be a win-win situation for both the economy and the environment. Producing products and services at lower energy input and related input costs can contribute to climate change abatement and economic competitiveness. Actual implementation of energy efficiency falls short to expectations, though. For one thing, research suggests that consumer inattention is an underlying force for underinvestments. For another thing, energy supply markets are often characterized by imperfect competition. Do firms in the energy retail market have incentives to voluntarily introduce energy efficiency? Or should informational regulation inform inattentive consumers? In this article I show that consumer inattention and imperfect competition are the crucial drivers for firms' decisions to introduce or conceil energy efficiency to customers. I find two symmetric equilibria: One in which both firms introduce energy efficiency and one in which both firms conceil energy efficiency. Equilibrium coordination depends on the distribution of consumers that are attentive to energy effienciency and consumers that are not. Further, mandatory disclosure laws are found to be weakly welfare increasing. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect Competition; Consumer Inattention; Product Differentiation; Disclosure; Energy Efficiency |
| JEL: | D83 L13 L41 |
| Date: | 2016–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2016_006&r=ger |
| By: | Melissa Dell; Pablo Querubin |
| Abstract: | This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced non-communist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions, which pursued different counterinsurgency strategies. A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes towards the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a hearts and minds oriented approach. |
| JEL: | F35 F51 F52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22395&r=ger |
| By: | Neville K. Vakharia (Drexel University, USA); Marilena Vecco (Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands); Andrej Srakar (Institute for Economic Research, Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia); Divya Janardhan (The Ohio State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the concepts of knowledge-centric organizations in the performing arts sector as a means to understand how specific organizational practices relate to measures of financial and operational performance. Using the authors’ prior framework of a knowledge-centric arts organization, a quantitative study of 368 small and mid-sized non-profit performing arts organizations in the United States was conducted via primary data on 36 organizational practices and secondary data on 21 performance metrics. A statistical analysis using structural equation models found several distinct performance metrics’ dimensions that are statistically associated with knowledge-centric practices, in particular related to board contribution, the resilience of the organization and attendance. On the other hand, no relationship was confirmed with monetary performance measures. We were also able to show some important correlations between demographic characteristics of organizations and their usage of knowledge-centric practices. These findings can serve as a basis to further investigate how organizations can remain sustainable and operate effectively in a knowledge-driven society. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge Centricity, Organizational Performance, Knowledge Management, Performing Arts, Structural Equation Models |
| JEL: | D80 D83 G31 G32 C38 C43 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-07-2016&r=ger |
| By: | Silvia Appelt; Fernando Galindo-Rueda |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the findings of a recent OECD project on the measurement of the link between public procurement and innovation that is intended to contribute to the review and implementation of the OECD measurement frameworks for R&D and innovation. The report highlights what concepts, definitions and measurement approaches can be used, with currently available data or suitably adapted sources, to produce policy-relevant indicators on the use of innovation procurement and carry out empirical analyses on the impact of public procurement on R&D, innovation and broader economic outcomes. Exploiting recent R&D and innovation survey data and administrative procurement records, it provides novel multi-country evidence on the incidence of public procurement of innovation. An exploratory analysis based on procurement, company account, R&D, patent and trademark data helps showcase the use of combined micro-data sources for analytical applications and points out important links between firm-level procurement activity, R&D and economic performance. |
| Keywords: | R&D, statistics, measurement, innovation, public procurement |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2016/3-en&r=ger |
| By: | Alexander Yu. Apokin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Irina B. Ipatova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the factors behind the recent growth slowdown (so-called Secular Stagnation) in the US, the euro area and Japan using the metrics of potential output growth. Specifically, our results offer limited support for an impaired credit transmission channel hypothesis (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009a), while not supporting a supply slowdown hypothesis (Gordon, 2012). We propose a unified framework to test those hypotheses based on structural break tests of potential output. We estimate a variety of potential output growth models accounting for inflation, unemployment, and private credit dynamics (finance-neutral estimates) with multivariate Kalman filters and subject our estimates to structural break tests. We detect structural breaks between 2008 and 2010 for all three countries with Bai-Perron search procedure, the result being robust to the model specification and sample choice, with no significant difference between ordinary and finance-neutral estimates. We proceed with the Chen-Liu test to detect negative temporary change outliers in the Great Recession for the US and the euro area and negative level shift outliers for Japan. Moreover, original breaks in the Chen-Liu test disappear in the US and the euro area once we account for private credit and labour market dynamics, but do not change for Japan. |
| Keywords: | New Normal, Secular Stagnation, Great Slump, potential GDP, Kalman filter, Bai-Perron test, Chen-Liu test |
| JEL: | C53 E17 F44 O57 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:142/ec/2016&r=ger |
| By: | Sáni Ye Zou; Stephanie Ockenden |
| Abstract: | In response to on-going discussions on the relationship between international climate finance and development finance, this paper explores what enables effective international climate finance in the context of development co-operation. Through interviews, views were elicited from selected international climate finance stakeholders representing climate finance recipient and provider countries, as well as experts from international organisations and research institutions. Identified enabling conditions reveal common grounds and differences across stakeholder groups. This offers a possible starting point for further dialogue aiming to advance the international climate and development finance agendas in a harmonised manner. |
| Keywords: | development co-operation, mainstreaming, national planning, climate finance |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dcdaaa:28-en&r=ger |
| By: | Elisa Van Waeyenberge (SOAS University of London); Hannah Bargawi (SOAS University of London) |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper is a contribution to Task 2 of Work Pack 6 Finance, Development and Global Governance. Task 2 seeks to assess the impact of the changes in the global financial and monetary system on developing countries. Within Task 2, the research is concerned with the effect of the evolution of the international financial and monetary system on developing countries since the financial crisis, and how this impact is affecting the modalities of cooperation among developing countries, multilateral trade and development agencies and the governments of OECD countries and the EU. Deliverable D6.06 has been structured as a series of working papers (Working Paper 139; Working Paper 140 and Working Paper 157). These report on the implications of various changes in the relations between the developed world, including the EU, and the developing world for financing development of developing countries, against the backdrop of transformations entailed through financialisation and the global financial and economic crisis. In essence, two broad themes are explored. On the one hand, there is a focus on changes in the nature of development cooperation over the last decade, including qualitative changes bearing on the increased prevalence of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to promote private flows. On the other, the implications of the increased importance of domestic mobilisation of resources for financing development are considered. This Working Paper places these specific themes in the broader context of conceptual and empirical issues bearing on financing development. |
| Keywords: | development finance, financial flows, domestic resource mobilization, global financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2016–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper139&r=ger |
| By: | Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso; Xue, Jianhong |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal and biomarker data from the China Family Panel Studies and the China Health and Nutrition Survey, this study examines the association between the type of domestic cooking fuel and the health of women aged Ï16 in rural China. Regarding three major domestic cooking fuels (wood/straw, coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG)), we find that, compared to women whose households cook with dirty fuels like wood/straw, women whose households cook with cleaner fuels like LNG have a significantly lower probability of chronic or acute diseases and are more likely to report better health. Even after controlling for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find some evidence that women in households cooking with LNG are less likely to suffer from chronic/acute diseases. Cooking with domestic coal instead of wood or straw is also associated with elevated levels of having certain risks (such as systolic and diastolic blood pressure) related to cardiovascular diseases. |
| Keywords: | household cooking fuels,health,women,rural China |
| JEL: | I10 D10 J10 Q53 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:082016&r=ger |
| By: | Koussoubé, Estelle; Nauges, Céline |
| Abstract: | The low level of modern inputs adoption by African farmers is considered to be a major impediment to food security and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. The government of Burkina Faso, following the example of a number of other countries in the region, launched a subsidy program in 2008 to encourage farmers’ uptake of chemical fertilizers and foster cereal production. This article explores the importance of fertilizer profitability in explaining the relative, apparent low use of chemical fertilizers by farmers in Burkina Faso. Using largescale plot data, we estimate maize yield response to nitrogen to be 19 kg/ha on average and to vary with soil characteristics. Profitability, which we measure through the calculation of a marginal value cost ratio, is estimated at 1.4 on those plots which received fertilizers, with significant variations across regions. For those plots on which fertilizers were not applied, we predict that fertilizers should have been profitable in most cases under the current level of subsidized fertilizer prices. These findings suggest that the low uptake of chemical fertilizers might have been driven by factors other than profitability, including insufficient supply of subsidized fertilizers to farmers in need. Our results also call for increasing the availability of credit to farmers in order to encourage adoption of chemical fertilizers. Finally, our results also show that not taking into account the endogeneity of nitrogen use in the yield equation may produce biased estimates of the maize yield response to nitrogen. |
| Keywords: | Burkina Faso; fertilizers; maize yield; subsidization program; technology adoption. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30548&r=ger |
| By: | de Luna, Xavier (Umeå University); Fowler, Philip (Umeå University); Johansson, Per (Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Proxy variables are often used in linear regression models with the aim of removing potential confounding bias. In this paper we formalise proxy variables within the potential outcome framework, giving conditions under which it can be shown that causal effects are nonparametrically identified. We characterise two types of proxy variables and give concrete examples where the proxy conditions introduced may hold by design. |
| Keywords: | average treatment effect, observational studies, potential outcomes, unobserved confounders |
| JEL: | C14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10057&r=ger |
| By: | Gastón Ballut Dajud; Néstor Garza |
| Abstract: | A partir de información primaria (1800 avalúos inmobiliarios) y secundaria (trabajos de investigación, instituciones públicas, estadísticas oficiales), se compila información sobre precios del suelo y sus determinantes en la ciudad de Sincelejo en una base de datos tipo panel para 145 barrios en el periodo 2000-2011. Se encontró que variables extractadas de la teoría tradicional son buenas determinantes de los precios del suelo en la ciudad: PIB, Estrato, Distancia al centro, Distancia a corredor de actividad y Precio del espacio construido. Otras variables influyentes son la Presencia de invasiones y el origen Comunitario del barrio. Problemas de criminalidad no fueron significativos. El comportamiento de las comunas fue desigual. Mientras las comunas 4 y 5 tuvieron precios persistentemente superiores a lo predicho por las variables usadas, mientras que las comunas 2 y 3 los tuvieron inferiores. |
| Keywords: | Sincelejo, región Caribe, economía inmobiliaria, Colombia, economía urbana |
| JEL: | R14 R30 R52 |
| Date: | 2015–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014785&r=ger |
| By: | Arbués, Ignacio; Ledo, Ramiro; Matilla-García, Mariano |
| Abstract: | There are a number of econometrics tools to deal with the different type of situations in which cointegration can appear: I(1), I(2), seasonal, polynomial, etc. There are also different kinds of Vector Error Correction models related to these situations. We propose a unified theoretical and practical framework to deal with many of these situations. To this aim: (i) a general class of models is introduced in this paper and (ii) an automatic method to identify models, based on estimating the Smith form of an autoregressive model, is provided. Our simulations suggest the power of the new proposed methodology. An empirical example illustrates the methodology. |
| Keywords: | time series,unit root,cointegration,error correction,model identification,Smith form |
| JEL: | C01 C22 C32 C51 C52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201633&r=ger |
| By: | Andres Mauricio Gomez Sanchez; Claudia Liceth Fajardo Hoyos; Juliana Isabel Sarmiento Castillo |
| Abstract: | Este documento tiene por objetivo estimar líneas de pobreza para el departamento del Cauca y compararlas con las cifras oficialmente establecidas a través de una metodología microeconométrica novedosa. Se parte de un conjunto de ecuaciones de demanda basándose en el Sistema Lineal de Gasto (LES) y después se estiman los umbrales de pobreza a través de un conjunto de modelos econométricos en dos escenarios: conociendo los gastos mínimos en alimentos y suponiendo los gastos mínimos de ahorro. Despues de resolver problemas de identificación, endogeneidad y sesgos muestrales, los resultados evidencian que efectivamente los umbrales de pobreza para el Cauca, independientemente de la modelación escogida, siempre están subvalorados por los datos oficiales, lo que distorsiona la política social y económica para ayudar a menguar el problema en este departamento. |
| Keywords: | Líneas de Pobreza, Sistema Lineal de Gasto, Modelos de Ecuaciones Simultaneas, Microeconometría. |
| JEL: | I32 C30 C0 D12 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014792&r=ger |
| By: | Moises S. Andrade (Department of Economics PUC-Rio); Tiago Berriel (Banco Central do Brasil) |
| Abstract: | Expansionary fiscal policies have been advocated to induce output expansions and inflation in deep recession or deflationary episodes. We show that, in a fiscalist setup, an increase in deficits can trigger a stagflation by negatively affecting financial intermediation of resources to investments. Financial intermediaries collect deposits to buy government bonds and lend through nominal long-term loans. When intermediaries face financial frictions and a maturity mismatch on their assets and liabilities, a surprise inflation and/or a revaluation of bonds prices impair their net-worth reducing lending, investments, and output. Recession comes with in- flation in a fiscal expansion because the fall on capital triggered on the financial sector rises production firms marginal costs. The probability of a recession is higher the greater is the maturity mismatch, the sensitivity of bonds prices to the policy rate, and the share of bonds on banks balances. These results: (1) give theoretical support for the negative relation documented between financial sector performance and inflation (2) help explaining high debt, high inflation environments coinciding with banking crisis and, more importantly, (3) expose drawbacks of fiscal inflation policies proposed to inflate and stimulate low inflation economies, where the setup stressed in this paper is more probable to be present. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rio:texdis:650&r=ger |
| By: | Abrigo, Michael R.M. |
| Abstract: | Commodity market fluctuations have been linked with a number of adult outcomes. Recent evidence on the lasting impact of early life conditions, however, suggests that the e ffects on children may be important as well. Using large spatio-temporal variations in rice prices in the Philippines as a natural experiment, the study estimates the eff ect of increasing food prices on parental behavior regarding an inexpensive yet time-intensive child investment: breastmilk feeding. It documents a countercyclical relationship between breastfeeding duration and rice prices, which may be a consequence of poorer health and induced labor force participation among mothers. Results highlight that even food producers may not be insulated against food price inflation. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, food prices, breastfeeding, child investments |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:dp_2016-28&r=ger |
| By: | Janusz J. Tomidajewicz (Department of Economic and Local Government Policy Poznan University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The processes of financial-system privatisation and commodification in the European countries investigated here took place mostly as a result of changes in the legal and organisational framework for conducting financial activity and as a consequence of individual privatisation decisions taken mainly for macroeconomic reasons. This suggests the predominance of ideological and macroeconomic reasons for the process in Europe. The phenomenon was most clearly visible in CEE countries, although it could also be seen in the privatisation processes taking place in countries of Western Europe. As a result, differences in the subjective and objective scope of financial-sector privatisation in particular European countries should be attributed much more to the influence of ideological reasons – an influence stemming largely from the impact of pressure groups interested in privatisation – than to pressure from the economic determinants of financial activity manifesting themselves in microeconomic reasons for privatisation |
| Keywords: | privatisation, commodification, financial sector, liberalisation |
| JEL: | L33 G18 E02 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper97&r=ger |
| By: | Atucha, Ana Julia; Lacaze, María Victoria |
| Abstract: | El cordón frutihortícola marplatense está conformado por establecimientos productivos con características heterogéneas. Los productores, nucleados en asociaciones y cooperativas, se vinculan con instituciones de investigación básica y extensión. El Grupo de Investigación Indicadores Socioeconómicos de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la UNMDP, ha consolidado lazos de trabajo con la Asociación Frutihortícola de Productores y Afines de General Pueyrredon, forjando un vínculo comunitario que trascendió en un vínculo institucional, a través de acciones sistematizadas de extensión universitaria destinadas a concientizar acerca de la importancia que reviste la planificación de las decisiones productivas. El trabajo describe el modo en que, mediante el desarrollo de dichas propuestas de extensión, han cimentado y sistematizado un espacio de reflexión entre saberes científicos y saberes populares los estudiantes involucrados en esos proyectos. Analizando sus opiniones y percepciones, recolectadas en el marco de un taller de sensibilización con pequeños productores desarrollado a finales del 2015, este escrito busca revelar el efecto que estas acciones generan en los estudiantes universitarios y qué contribuciones personales y profesionales generan en ellos. |
| Keywords: | Extensión Universitaria; Productores; Actividad Frutihortícola; |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2495&r=ger |
| By: | Rogers, John H.; Scotti, Chiara; Wright, Jonathan H. |
| Abstract: | We assess the relationship between monetary policy, foreign exchange risk premia and term premia at the zero lower bound. We estimate a structural VAR including U.S. and foreign interest rates and exchange rates, and identify monetary policy shocks through a method that uses these surprises as the crucial external instrument" that achieves identification without having to use implausible short-run restrictions. This allows us to measure effects of policy shocks on expectations, and hence risk premia. U.S. monetary policy easing shocks lower domestic and foreign bond risk premia, lead to dollar depreciation and lower foreign exchange risk premia. We present some evidence that U.S. monetary policy easing surprises at the ZLB shift options-implied skewness in the direction of dollar depreciation and also reduce the demand for the liquidity of short-term U.S. Treasuries. Both of these channels should lower foreign exchange risk premia. |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1172&r=ger |
| By: | Ishmael Ackah (Accra, Ghana) |
| Abstract: | Goal 7 of the Sustainable Development Goals seeks to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services and increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by 2030. This target provides an opportunity as well as a challenge to African countries including Ghana. Indeed, the Ghana Energy Commission estimates that Ghana has about 34 potential hydro sites and enjoys about 330 days of sunshine annually. For instance, the three Northern regions, Volta and northern parts of Brong Ahafo have radiation levels with monthly average of between 4.0 and 6.5kWh/m2/day. These hydro and solar resources, coupled with abundant waste, wind potential of about 2000 MW and tidal potential can make Ghana a net exporter of power when the needed investment is provided. This paper examines the policy interventions in renewable energy in Ghana over the past 20 years. It also includes a review of the literature on the relationship between renewable energy investment and sustainable development and provides policy recommendations to fast-track renewable energy technology deployment in Ghana. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Ghana, Sustainable Development Goals, Energy supply and demand |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/013&r=ger |
| By: | Chakir, Raja; Laurent, Thibault; Ruiz-Gazen, Anne; Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Vignes, Céline |
| Abstract: | We propose in this paper models that allow to predict land use (urban, agriculture, forests, natural grasslands and soil) at the points of the Teruti-Lucas survey from easily accessible covariates. Our approach involves two steps : first we model land use at the Teruti Lucas point level and second, we propose a method to aggregate land use on regular meshes. The model of the first stage provides fine level predictions. The second step aggregates these predictions on the tiles of the mesh comparing several methods. We are considering various regular meshes of the territory to study the prediction quality depending on the resolution. We show that with easily accessible variables we have an acceptable prediction quality at the point level and that the quality of prediction is improved from the very first stage of aggregation. |
| Keywords: | land use models, Teruti-Lucas survey, classication tree |
| JEL: | C21 C25 Q15 R14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30545&r=ger |
| By: | Hazan, Moshe; Weiss, David; Zoabi, Hosny |
| Abstract: | Property rights are at the heart of capitalism's ability to efficiently allocate resources. Historically, married women have been one of the groups with the greatest legal disabilities in this regard, to the benefit of their husbands. Starting in the second half of the 19th century, common law countries, which were entirely dominated by men, gave married women property rights. Before this ``women's liberation,'' married women were subject to the laws of coverture. Coverture had detailed laws as to which spouse had ownership and control over various aspects of property both before and after marriage. These laws created a strong disincentive for women to invest in financial assets, such as stocks, bonds, and even bank deposits. This paper develops a general equilibrium model with endogenous determination of women's rights in which these laws affect portfolio choices, leading to inefficient allocations. We show how technological advancement eventually leads to men granting rights, and in turn how these rights affect development. Exploiting cross-state variation in the timing of rights, we show that increases in non-agricultural TFP predict the granting of rights. The granting of rights in turn leads to a dynamic labor reallocation towards the non-agricultural sector, representing further development. Finally, we show that women's rights are associated with lower interest rates and greater financial intermediation, consistent with an increase in the supply of credit. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; financial innovation; investor protection; political economy |
| JEL: | E02 E44 G11 J12 K11 K36 N11 N21 O11 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11371&r=ger |
| By: | James C. Hartigan |
| Abstract: | In its Final Modification for Reviews the U.S. DOC announced on February 14, 2012 that it would cease the use of zeroing in the calculation of anti-dumping (AD) margins in all reviews as of April 16, 2012. However, it did not pertain to targeted dumping. In its Final Rule of April 22, 2014, it codified substantial discretion in calculating AD duties, including the use of zeroing, in targeted dumping. Thus the panel in Shrimp II erred in not finding “as such” inconsistency by the U.S. with the AD Agreement, despite this not being a targeted dumping complaint. Given the record of the U.S. in complying with zeroing petitions, it should have incurred the burden of proof, which is not satisfied by these pronouncements. Market structure should be used by panels in “as applied” inconsistency determinations. Viet Nam should have included an Art. 3 violation in its complaint. |
| Keywords: | Zeroing, Anti-Dumping, Targeted Dumping, Final Modification/ Final Rule, Non-Market Entity |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/67&r=ger |
| By: | Milko Matijascic |
| Abstract: | Entre as mulheres ocupadas, a proporção de contribuintes para a previdência foi maior que a dos homens em 2014 e essa constatação é uma novidade no Brasil. A presença das mulheres aumentou em benefícios com maior densidade de contribuição, como as aposentadorias por tempo de contribuição, e perdeu força nas pensões por morte, pois o modelo baseado no homem provedor do lar perdeu força e novos arranjos familiares ganham espaço. Os benefícios de prestação temporária apresentam uma elevada participação de mulheres, pois as mulheres buscam adotar uma atitude mais preventiva e as pressões sofridas pelas mulheres com o mundo do trabalho em conjugação com as responsabilidades familiares parecem exercer pressões que afetam a sua saúde. Esse cenário indica que a forma de organizar a proteção social no Brasil, com ênfase em gastos com benefícios pagos em dinheiro e na menor importância conferida a serviços sociais, gera problemas para as mulheres. Among occupied women, the proportion of those who contribute to the public pension system was greater than for man in 2014, representing a new scenario for Brazil. The insertion of women among benefits that required a higher density of contribution raised and is reflected by a higher proportion among length of contribution pensions and a smaller one for survivor benefits, since the male breadwinner model looses ground and new family arrangements are present. Temporary benefits present a higher women incidence since they are more conscious about their situation and suffer bigger pressures to conciliate family duties and professional obligations that affect her health condition. This scenario shows that the option to emphasize cash transfer in detriment to social services may create serious constraints for Brazilian women. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2206&r=ger |
| By: | Bayo-Moriones, Alberto (University of Navarra); Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique (Universidad Pública de Navarra); Martinez-de-Morentin, Sara (Universidad Pública de Navarra) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we address the relationship between performance appraisal and competitive strategy, as well as the impact of this relationship on firm performance. The results indicate that the adoption of developmental performance appraisal and the use of administrative performance appraisal are higher among firms that pursue differentiation strategies compared to those competing on costs. Regarding firm performance, the interaction between a developmental appraisal system and a quality strategy displays higher return on equity and sales per employee. Those firms that combine a focus on innovation with administrative performance appraisal also enjoy higher performance. Finally, when the firm competes on the basis of cost reduction, the use of administrative appraisal increases the sales per employee. |
| Keywords: | performance appraisal, competitive strategy, firm performance, developmental appraisal, administrative appraisal |
| JEL: | M12 M52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10041&r=ger |
| By: | Daniel Detzer (Berlin School of Economics and Law) |
| Abstract: | In the era of financialisation, increasing income inequality could be observed in most developed and many developing countries. Despite these similar developments in inequality, the growth performance and drivers for growth differed markedly among countries, allowing clusters of different growth regimes to be identified. Among them two extreme types: the debt-led private-demand boom type and the export-led mercantilist type. Whereas the former relies mainly on credit-financed household consumption in order to compensate for the potential lack of demand (associated with the depressing effect of financialisation), the latter relies on net exports as the main driver of aggregate demand. After a short review of the different channels through which financialisation is expected to affect a countries development, a theoretical discussion on the conditions that tend to support the occurrence of either of the two regimes will build the base for the following model exercise. With the help of a stock-flow consistent model it will be demonstrated then how increasing inequality, depending on a countries institutional structure and regulatory framework, affects growth differently, explaining the occurrence of both regime types. Based on the insights of the theoretical discussion and the model results, a foresight exercise will be performed examining how further increase in inequality might affect development of economies around the world but particularly of the Euro area. |
| Keywords: | Euro area, finance-dominate capitalism, financialisation, foresight, household debt, international imbalances, consumption emulation |
| JEL: | E02 E12 E21 E25 E44 E65 F40 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2016–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper151&r=ger |
| By: | Zachary Stangebye (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | In a finite-horizon model of sovereign debt and default, I show that long-term debt and the lack of ability to commit to future debt issuance can give rise to a multiplicity of debt and spread trajectories despite the ability to commit to contemporaneous debt issuance in terminal periods. This multiplicity bears resemblance to recent events in the Peripheral Eurozone. In a simple calibrated exercise, I find that 380 basis points (84.6%) of the spread during the crisis may be imputable to such coordination failures; if the model is extended to include bank bailouts, it can also explain 46.63 percentage points (37.8%) of the debt-to-GDP build-up. Policy analysis reveals that both austerity measures and liquidity provision by the central bank can eliminate malignant debt trajectories, but that the latter is more likely to have resolved the crisis. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:63&r=ger |
| By: | Adil Khan Miankhel (Embassy of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Institutions are source of comparative advantage or disadvantage in international trade. Socio-economic and political constraints also matter for creating comparative advantage and affect the trade pattern of a country. These diverse ‘beyond the border’ and ‘behind the border’ constraints are often not fully captured in the literature on international trade and institutions. The existence of such institutional, socio-economic, and political constraints to Pakistani exports is empirically investigated in this paper through a cross-sectional analysis employing a trade Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Aggregate data for 2006-08 and 2009-11 show lower exports in the latter period. This is attributed to demand-suppressing effects emanating from the 2008 global financial crisis and supply-suppressing effects emanating from energy shortfalls and input constraints, due to floods, in Pakistan. The model estimation then demonstrates that behind the border constraints in Pakistan are statistically significant in explaining total exports during 2009-11. The estimation is also presented for four single-digit SIC categories of products for this period. Behind the border constraints are evident for SIC 0 (agriculture, forestry and fish products) and SIC 2 (manufactured products) that combined account for approximately 80 percent of Pakistan’s exports. The estimation results by country further demonstrate that behind the border constraints affect the pattern of trade through the non-realization of bilateral trade potential. In the post-financial crisis era, Pakistan needs to further develop its institutional capacity to promote competitive exports given the explicit and implicit beyond the border trade barriers it faces and work to remove political obstacles to regional trade. |
| JEL: | F13 O24 O19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:wpaper:25651&r=ger |
| By: | Adil Khan Miankhel (Embassy of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Institutions are source of comparative advantage or disadvantage in international trade. Socio-economic and political constraints also matter for creating comparative advantage and affect the trade pattern of a country. These diverse ‘beyond the border’ and ‘behind the border’ constraints are often not fully captured in the literature on international trade and institutions. The existence of such institutional, socio-economic, and political constraints to Pakistani exports is empirically investigated in this paper through a cross-sectional analysis employing a trade Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Aggregate data for 2006-08 and 2009-11 show lower exports in the latter period. This is attributed to demand-suppressing effects emanating from the 2008 global financial crisis and supply-suppressing effects emanating from energy shortfalls and input constraints, due to floods, in Pakistan. The model estimation then demonstrates that behind the border constraints in Pakistan are statistically significant in explaining total exports during 2009-11. The estimation is also presented for four single-digit SIC categories of products for this period. Behind the border constraints are evident for SIC 0 (agriculture, forestry and fish products) and SIC 2 (manufactured products) that combined account for approximately 80 percent of Pakistan’s exports. The estimation results by country further demonstrate that behind the border constraints affect the pattern of trade through the non-realization of bilateral trade potential. In the post-financial crisis era, Pakistan needs to further develop its institutional capacity to promote competitive exports given the explicit and implicit beyond the border trade barriers it faces and work to remove political obstacles to regional trade. |
| JEL: | F13 O24 O19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:25651&r=ger |
| By: | Adil Khan Miankhel (Embassy of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Institutions are source of comparative advantage or disadvantage in international trade. Socio-economic and political constraints also matter for creating comparative advantage and affect the trade pattern of a country. These diverse ‘beyond the border’ and ‘behind the border’ constraints are often not fully captured in the literature on international trade and institutions. The existence of such institutional, socio-economic, and political constraints to Pakistani exports is empirically investigated in this paper through a cross-sectional analysis employing a trade Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Aggregate data for 2006-08 and 2009-11 show lower exports in the latter period. This is attributed to demand-suppressing effects emanating from the 2008 global financial crisis and supply-suppressing effects emanating from energy shortfalls and input constraints, due to floods, in Pakistan. The model estimation then demonstrates that behind the border constraints in Pakistan are statistically significant in explaining total exports during 2009-11. The estimation is also presented for four single-digit SIC categories of products for this period. Behind the border constraints are evident for SIC 0 (agriculture, forestry and fish products) and SIC 2 (manufactured products) that combined account for approximately 80 percent of Pakistan’s exports. The estimation results by country further demonstrate that behind the border constraints affect the pattern of trade through the non-realization of bilateral trade potential. In the post-financial crisis era, Pakistan needs to further develop its institutional capacity to promote competitive exports given the explicit and implicit beyond the border trade barriers it faces and work to remove political obstacles to regional trade. |
| JEL: | F13 O24 O19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:25651&r=ger |
| By: | Jaime Martínez-Martín (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper exhaustively analyses the recent decline of international trade elasticities to output growth. We extend an empirical model of import demand functions to account not only for transitory factors, such as relative prices and import intensity-adjusted measures of demand (I-O Tables), but also for habitually neglected permanent factors such as protectionism, vertical integration (i.e. Global Value Chains) and foreign direct investment (FDI). Dealing with a non-stationary heteregenous panel of 27 countries, we estimate a panel Error Correction Model from 1960 to 2015 in order to break down world trade elasticities. Our main fi ndings evidence: i) the presence of panel (cointegrating) structural changes in the trade-to-GDP relationship in 2000 and 2009, private consumption being a source of disruption; ii) although investment and exports are the most sensitive, import-intensive components of demand, this is far from being transitory, which is clearly weighing on the current slowdown; iii) the relevant contribution of GVCs shows a procyclical pattern, questioning the permanent nature of the current levelling-off of vertical integration processes. The lack of progress in reducing import tariffs and the usual discarded, complementary relationship between FDI and imports have a residual role. All in all, our results have substantial policy implications, as they reinforce the idea of a historical break towards a new ‘normal’ trading phase. |
| Keywords: | global trade, income elasticities, panel error correction models, panel cointegration structural breaks |
| JEL: | F14 F40 C23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1614&r=ger |
| By: | Camila Casas (Banco de la República de Colombia); Alejandra González (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present estimates for the coefficients of a production function, and the corresponding total factor productivity (TFP) for the Colombian manufacturing industry during 2005{2013. We follow several structural microeconometric techniques to estimate the production function parameters. We compare the estimation results across methodologies, as well as their robustness to changes in our estimation sample, variable definitions, and/or weights used to aggregate the estimated firm-level TFP into an industry-level average TFP. Our results show that, in general, all estimation methodologies result in a similar growth pattern during our sample period. Moreover, the general growth trend is not affected greatly by the additional changes mentioned above. However, the level of productivity (and the estimated TFP growth) does depend on how the production function is estimated Classification JEL: D24, L25, L60 |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity, production function, manufacturing industry |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:947&r=ger |
| By: | Ana Maria Osorio; Gustavo Alfonso Romero; Harold Bonilla; Luis Fernando Aguado (Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali) |
| Abstract: | There is great empirical evidence of the relationship between health and the place of residence of individuals. Neighborhoods or communities have become relevant contexts to the analysis of health determinants in the extent to which these share physical and social attributes that may affect the health of people. Previous studies have analyzed the determining factors of children malnutrition in Colombia. However, few have considered the role played by the closest environment where the children and their families live. This study examines, beyond individual characteristics of the child and his household, the influence of socio-economic characteristics of the community on child health (measured by height-for-age). Using data from the 2005 and 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), multilevel logistic models are conducted. In addition, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using polychoric correlations is employed in the construction of composite indicators of the socio-economic status and of the use and access to the health system at the individual and community levels. Results show that 9% of variability in the likelihood that a child has chronic malnutrition may be attributed to community level factors. Results confirm that in addition to the individual and household characteristics, there are also socio-economic characteristics of the community such as education of other women, the level of wealth and the use and access to the health system that have an influence on chronic malnutrition in Colombia. Findings suggest looking into nutrition programs and the inclusion of influential factors highlighted in this study, focusing on policies that promote and offer social spaces that allow development and the socialization of the community, since the context (community) is a key factor that may help in reducing early childhood stunting. |
| Keywords: | Child malnutrition, Socio-Economic Context, Community, Multilevel Models, Colombia |
| JEL: | J13 I32 P46 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ddt:wpaper:24&r=ger |
| By: | Allen, D.E.; Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.; Singh, A.K. |
| Abstract: | This paper features an analysis of the cointegration relationships among agricultural commodity, ethanol and Cushing crude oil spot and futures prices. The use of grains for the creation of bio-fuels has sparked fears that these demands are inflating food prices. We analyse approximately 10 years of daily spot and futures prices for corn, wheat, sugar ethanol and oil prices from Datastream for the period 19 July 2006 to 2 July 2015. The analysis, featuring Engle-Granger pairwise cointegration and Markov-switching VECM and Impulse Response Analysis, confirms that these markets have significant linkages which vary according to whether they are in low or high volatility regimes. |
| Keywords: | bio-fuels, time series, cointegration, Markov-switching, VECM, impulse responses, voloatility |
| JEL: | Q42 C22 |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:93112&r=ger |
| By: | Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Nauges, Céline; Quiggin, John; Sanders, Orion |
| Abstract: | The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested, and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state-contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state-contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state-contingent production theory using farm-level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006-07 to 2009-10. |
| Keywords: | dairy industry; Murray–Darling basin; state-contingent theory; weather variability |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30547&r=ger |
| By: | Ianina Harari |
| Abstract: | Este artículo se propone examinar el desarrollo de la industria autopartista argentina durante los dos primeros gobiernos peronistas (1945 y 1955). Nos centramos en las políticas de incentivo al sector, principalmente a través de la fábrica automotriz de Industrias Aeronáuticas y Mecánicas del Estado. Asimismo, analizamos los límites con que esta actividad se encontró al expandirse en el período, en especial en relación con las materias primas y el equipamiento. Creemos que a pesar de los incentivos estatales, el desarrollo de esta rama encontró obstáculos propios de la estructura económica del país. En este trabajo utilizamos fuentes tanto oficiales como publicaciones de entidades empresariales, entre otras. |
| Keywords: | Industria autopartista, industria metalúrgica, Argentina, peronismo. |
| JEL: | N66 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2014–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014773&r=ger |
| By: | Carlos Eduardo Méndez Conde; Juan Camilo Méndez Vizcaíno |
| Abstract: | El presente trabajo evalúa los determinantes de la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio para el periodo comprendido entre 2000 y 2016 y tiene como objetivo establecer recomendaciones de política para enfrentar dicho comportamiento. Para ello, y partiendo de la revisión de estudios anteriores sobre el tema, se plantean distintos modelos econométricos, fundamentados en los modelos Autorregresivos de Heteroscedasticidad Condicional Generalizados (GARCH por sus siglas en inglés). Para satisfacer las necesidades del estudio se establecieron como variables de análisis algunas tanto de carácter interno como de carácter externo. Se concluye que tanto los factores internos como los externos tuvieron un impacto importante sobre el nivel de la tasa de cambio. Además, se encuentra que los factores externos tuvieron una mayor incidencia sobre la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio nominal, no obstante se encuentra además que las intervenciones en el mercado cambiario por parte del Banco de la República tuvieron impacto sobre la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio, haciendo que esta aumentara de forma significativa. |
| Keywords: | Tasa de cambio nominal, volatilidad de la tasa de cambio, diseño de política, GARCH, extensiones GARCH |
| JEL: | C10 C51 E61 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000176:014806&r=ger |
| By: | Alessandro Mannini (Società Italiana di Biologia Marina (SIBM)); Rosaria Felicita Sabatella (Nisea - Fisheries and Aquaculture Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | The Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) requires the implementation of an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management. This means an integrated approach to managing fisheries within ecologically meaningful boundaries which takes account of fishing and other human activities. The components of an ecosystem management approach to fisheries include the establishment of an appropriate balance between conservation and responsible use and the principle that conservation and management decisions for fisheries should be based on the best scientific information available. In the Italian context, this integrated approach to fisheries management is well known and it is reflected on the fisheries data-collection programme and data dissemination. In the paper the principal outcomes of the “Yearbook on the state of resources and economic performance of Italian fishing fleet†will be presented. The report analyzes the fishery sector on the basis of an integrated analysis of biological data, fishing effort data, landings by species and socio-economic data. Innovative tools for dissemination of information through web applications is also presented Language: en |
| Keywords: | Ecosystem – Based Approach |
| JEL: | Q22 K11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irf:wpaper:015&r=ger |
| By: | Prats Albentosa, María Asuncíon; Sandoval, Beatriz |
| Abstract: | A developed financial system is essential in a market economy. This paper studies the importance of the development of financial markets in general, and the stock market in particular, from the review of existing literature in the area of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and especially, the link between the stock market and economic growth. Through an empirical analysis for six countries in Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Romania) it is tried to show the link between the stock market development and economic growth in these countries from 1995 to 2012 in order to explain the transition processes, from communist to market economies, which began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The results show evidence of Granger causality between economic growth variables and financial market variables. |
| Keywords: | economic growth,stock market,financial markets,financial development |
| JEL: | F43 O16 G2 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201635&r=ger |
| By: | Haile, Getinet Astatike (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Using data from two comprehensive national labour force surveys conducted in 2005 and 2013, this paper examines the extent of intergenerational mobility in Ethiopia using monetary and non-monetary measures. Quantile regression and OLS based results suggest there is moderate level of "stickiness" in income mobility across generations. Sons are found to be more mobile than daughters both in monetary and non-monetary terms, although the mobility gap appears to have narrowed recently. There is virtually no evidence on intergenerational mobility in the context of low income countries in general and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular. The paper thus provides valuable insights into issues of intergenerational mobility in a low income country setting. The mixed approach used addresses possible measurement error in income, as well as offering a broader scope in examining intergenerational mobility. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, income, education, occupation, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | J62 D31 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10047&r=ger |
| By: | Pham, Tho; Talavera, Oleksandr; Yang, Junhong |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impacts of non-price competition on bank performance in the Ukrainian banking industry from 2009 Q1 to 2015 Q4. The competition is proxied by three measures of multimarket contacts. Our data reveal that banks with higher level of multiple market contacts are more likely to be profitable. The findings support the mutual forbearance hypothesis. When banks compete with rivals that are similar in size in multiple markets, they have incentives to cooperate instead of competing aggressively. Moreover, the effect is stronger when multimarket competitors are highly similar in size and interact in more competitive markets. Furthermore, we develop an identification strategy in which military actions are treated as an exogenous shock to banks with branches in those regions. The results suggest that after the conflict, the less affected banks do not have incentives to mutual forbear with more affected banks that experienced a sharper decline in number of branches. |
| Keywords: | Banking; Multimarket competition; Multimarket contact; Mutual forbearance hypothesis; Profitability; Identification strategy; Exogenous shock; Political conflict |
| JEL: | G21 L11 L25 L40 |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72376&r=ger |
| By: | Thais Nuñez-Rocha (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | A new branch of the literature on international trade and environment suggests that developing countries are becoming waste havens for their developed counterparts, due to environmental regulation differences with trade partners. This paper analyses the effectiveness of the Basel Convention formalisation in the European Union (EU-WSR), by studying the impact of the EU-WSR on hazardous waste trade, first on the less developed EU countries, and then on regions of developing countries. It does so, by means of a gravity model framework applied to a panel data-set. Results show that there is no enough evidence to call for waste haven effect in the less developed EU countries, with both aggregated and disaggregated measures of environmental regulations, but increasing institution efficiency differences could lead to increasing imports of waste. In the regional analysis, there is no evidence of the efficacy of the EU-WSR. These findings provide insights into the efficacy of European engagements on waste trade, indicating that there is no simple answer as to its effect |
| Keywords: | Hazardous waste; waste haven effect; international trade; international environmental agreements; difference-in-differences; log-linear and ppml gravity model |
| JEL: | F13 F18 Q53 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:16047&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The latest energy sector assessment, strategy, and road map for Viet Nam of the Southeast Asia Energy Division of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) highlights energy sector performance, major development constraints, government development plans and strategy, previous support from ADB and other development partners, and ADB’s future support strategy in Viet Nam’s energy sector. The assessment, strategy, and road map will add on to ADB’s 2016–2020 country partnership strategy for Viet Nam. The report also provides energy sector background information for ADB investment and technical assistance operations. |
| Keywords: | Energy, Viet Nam, renewable energy, power generation plants, green growth strategy, country partnership strategy, sector assessment, hydropower plant, liquefied natural gas, energy consumption, noncommercial energy, crude oil |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167828&r=ger |
| By: | Valeria Rueda (Sciences Po and Pembroke College, Oxford); Guillaume Laval (Institut Pasteur); Etienne Patin (Institut Pasteur) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the role of individual cultural distance on income, using the genetic distance as a proxy for cultural distance. We show that cultural distance has heterogeneous predictive power.In particular, culturally distant individuals living in regions with other individuals from more trusting ancestries or less xenophobic ones are more likely to be economically successful. First generation migrants seem to be less likely to success the more culturally distant they are, but this e?ect vanishes as time spent in the USA increases. Our research challenges the static view that cultural di?erences are necessarily an obstacle to economic performance in the long-run. Our interpretation of the results is robust to the use of alternative measures for cultural distance. |
| Keywords: | Cultural Distance, Cultural Diversity, Genetics, Historical Persistence, Labor Participation, Social Capital. |
| JEL: | J61 N30 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_140&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The gradual moderation in growth currently underway in the People’s Republic of China presents both challenges and opportunities for developing Asia, while concerns over a sharp slowdown in the near term are exaggerated. |
| Keywords: | adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, prc growth, prc forecasts, moderating growth, prc gdp, asian economies, trade exposure, coal prices, prices of metals, oil, natural gas prices, asia commodity prices, exports to china, china trade, abdul abiad, minsoo lee, madhavi pundit, arief ramayandi |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:abf167930-2&r=ger |
| By: | Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuña; Paola Andrea Vaca González |
| Abstract: | Este artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación acerca de los posibles determinantes del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI, mediante un modelo VAR-X cointegrado. El análisis de cointegración evidencia estadísticamente una relación de largo plazo entre las variables términos de intercambio, ventas reales, productividad laboral, empleo, salarios reales y desempleo. Al estimar el modelo y desarrollar el análisis de impulso respuesta, se concluye que las ventas reales son un factor importante para el desempleo en el corto plazo, como la productividad lo es en gran medida para el mediano y largo plazo. Este análisis se confirma con los resultados arrojados por la descomposición de varianza. |
| Keywords: | Desempleo, Colombia, VAR-X cointegrado, análisis de impulso respuesta, descomposición de varianza. |
| JEL: | C32 E24 |
| Date: | 2014–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014770&r=ger |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This note explores the problem of family labor supply decision in an economy with two-member households, joint home production, and fixed cost of joint labor supply. Even though the labor supply decisions are not indivisible per se, the presence of such fixed cost and partners with unequal labor productivity create non-convexities. The note shows how lotteries as in Rogerson (1988) can again be used to convexify consumption sets, and we perform aggregation over individual preferences. The main result demonstrated in the paper is that aggregate preferences of males do not differ from individual level ones. However, for females, the disutility of non-market work at the aggregate becomes separable from market work, but keeps its original (logarithmic) form, while the female labor elasticity of the market hours supply increases from unity to infinity. |
| Keywords: | family labor supply,home production,aggregation |
| JEL: | E1 J22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142232&r=ger |
| By: | Gaye Yilmaz (Bogazici University and Middle Eastern Technical University, Department of Political Science and Public Administration); Ozlem Celik (Bogazici University and Middle Eastern Technical University, Department of Political Science and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Unlike many other metropolises around the world, water supply in Instanbul has been subject to commercial practices since the 19th century. The difference today, however, it is in the stage of a privatisation process of water resources, rather than the provision of water itself to the consumers. The role of the state at different levels still has an important and major role in the provision of water. Even if the water resources are started to be privatised, the financialisation of water provision is quite limited. That is why this paper focuses on the changing finance tools and the changing role of the state in water provision in Istanbul in a historical context. |
| Keywords: | Istandbul, water provision, SoP, Systems of Provision. |
| JEL: | H4 G28 L95 P16 Q25 R38 |
| Date: | 2016–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper153&r=ger |
| By: | Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez (Banco de la República de Colombia); Julian A. Parra-Polania (Banco de la República de Colombia); Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | Central banks in emerging countries frequently build-up (diminish) reserves while attempting to depreciate (appreciate) their domestic currencies. Even if these interventions are effective, they often entail various costs. Basu (2012), nonetheless, proposes a model in which the sole announcement of an intervention schedule leads to a desired exchange rate without actually buying or selling foreign currency. In this paper we present a generalization that allows for imperfect credibility of foreign exchange intervention. Namely, market dealers know that the central bank carries strategic incentives when announcing its schedule and may not perfectly believe it. We show that, under this setup, it may be impossible for central banks to achieve the desired exchange rate level without changing their position of international reserves. Classification JEL: F31, E58, G20, D43 |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate, Foreign exchange intervention, Central bank Credibility, Credibility function |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:949&r=ger |
| By: | Kate Bayliss (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London); Ben Fine (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London); Mary Robertson (The University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on a series of case studies to consider the Role of the State, using the systems of provision (SoP) approach where the state and market are not considered to be dichotomous entities (as in most orthodox literature). Rather, markets are organised by the state in ways that are continually evolving. Our coverage of this extensive topic has been delimited by focusing on three aspects of the role of the state. The first of these is social compacting which considers the ways in which economic, political and ideological interests relate to the state. This section considers the state’s role in representing different social interests with a declining influence of labour. The second aspect addressed here is the state’s role in social policy and the provision of basic services. The paper shows that this increasingly comes down to providing for the hard to serve while wider concerns of equity and redistribution are neglected. Finally the paper explores the role of the state in connection with privatisation. Using the empirical evidence of the case studies, the paper shows that implementation and outcomes have been diverse across sectors and countries but common strands are emerging. These sectors are far from competitive, and privatisation has created conditions for significant rent extraction in ways that were unintended at the time of privatisation |
| Keywords: | role of the state, neoliberalism, social policy, privatisation, financialisation, housing, water |
| JEL: | H4 L95 L33 R31 R38 P16 P1 P10 |
| Date: | 2016–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper154&r=ger |
| By: | Di Tommaso, Maria Laura (University of Turin); Mendolia, Silvia (University of Wollongong); Contini, Dalit (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | Gender differences in the STEM (Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics) disciplines are widespread in most OECD countries and mathematics is the only subject where typically girls tend to underperform with respect to boys. This paper describes the gender gap in math test scores in Italy, which is one of the countries displaying the largest differential between boys and girls according to the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), we use data from an Italian national level learning assessment, involving children in selected grades from second to tenth. We first analyse the magnitude of the gender gap using OLS regression and school fixed-effect models for each grade separately. Our results show that girls systematically underperform boys, even after controlling for an array of individual and family background characteristics, and that the average gap increases with children's age. We then study the gender gap throughout the test scores distribution, using quantile regression and metric-free methods, and find that the differential is small at the lowest percentiles of the grade distribution, but large among top performing children. Finally, we estimate dynamic models relating math performance at two consecutive assessments. Lacking longitudinal data, we use a pseudo panel technique and find that girls' average test scores are consistently lower than those of boys at all school years, even conditional on previous scores. |
| Keywords: | math gender gap, education, school achievement, inequalities, cross-sectional data, pseudo panel estimation, quantile regression |
| JEL: | J16 I24 C31 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10053&r=ger |
| By: | Carlos Rodríguez Crespo (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI). Universidad Complutense de Madrid.); Javier Ramos Díaz (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI). Universidad Complutense de Madrid.) |
| Abstract: | Nuestro propósito en este working paper es presentar las principales conclusiones que se derivan de la posición de los agentes en relación con la reciente introducción en el ámbito de las políticas públicas españolas de dos instrumentos que pretenden corregir el desempleo juvenil en España: el sistema de Garantía Juvenil y la Formación Profesional Dual. Es el resultado de un proyecto, financiado por la Comisión Europea, inscrito en el programa COMM/MAD/2014/02. ref. ES44, que ha permitido celebrar dos workshop con expertos procedentes del ámbito académico, de las Administraciones Públicas y de los agentes sociales, para evaluar inicialmente la implantación de ambos instrumentos en España. La estructura del trabajo es la siguiente. Inicialmente, será presentada evidencia empírica del problema del desempleo juvenil y del colectivo NEET en la UE y España. A continuación, se compendiarán con brevedad las principales iniciativas comunitarias y su transposición al caso español. Posteriormente, serán sintetizados los discursos de los agentes sobre los problemas suscitados en la implantación del sistema de garantía juvenil. A continuación extractaremos la posición de los agentes sobre la formación profesional dual, para analizarlos, como en el caso anterior. Finalmente, serán presentadas las conclusiones de este trabajo. |
| Keywords: | Empleo juvenil; Garantía juvenil; Formación profesional dual. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:wpaper:1601&r=ger |
| By: | Orphanides, Athanasios |
| Abstract: | Under ordinary circumstances, the fiscal implications of central bank policies tend to be seen as relatively minor and escape close scrutiny. The global financial crisis of 2008, however, demanded an extraordinary response by central banks which brought to light the immense power of central bank balance sheet policies as well as their major fiscal implications. Once the zero lower bound on interest rates is reached, expanding a central bank's balance sheet becomes the central instrument for providing additional monetary policy accommodation. However, with interest rates near zero, the line separating fiscal and monetary policy is blurred. Furthermore, discretionary decisions associated with asset purchases and liquidity provision, as well as with lender-of-last-resort operations benefiting private entities, can have major distributional effects that are ordinarily associated with fiscal policy. In the euro area, discretionary central bank decisions can have immense distributional effects across member states. However, decisions of this nature are incompatible with the role of unelected officials in democratic societies. Drawing on the response to the crisis by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, this paper explores the tensions arising from central bank balance sheet policies and addresses pertinent questions about the governance and accountability of independent central banks in a democratic society. |
| Keywords: | central bank accountability; central bank governance; central bank independence; lender of last resort; loss sharing; monetary financing; Quantitative easing; rules vs discretion. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E61 G01 H12 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11383&r=ger |
| By: | Noë, Ronald |
| Abstract: | After an introduction to biological markets written for non-biologists, I explore whether and to what extent natural markets, i.e. markets on which non-human traders exchange goods and services with members belonging to their own or to other species, can be compared to human ‘economic’ markets, i.e. the markets analysed by economists. Biological Market Theory (BMT) borrows jargon and ideas from economics, but was at least as much inspired by sexual selection theory, a collection of models of ‘mating markets’, including human mating markets. Here I ask two main questions: (1) Is there more than only a superficial resemblance between both types of markets? (2) Can the analysis of one yield insights about the other? First, I consider the different forms of human trading and markets and propose some biological ones to which these can best be compared, e.g. companies trading goods in markets shaped by ‘comparative advantage’ to underground nutrient exchange markets between plants and rhizobial bacteria and mycorrhizal fungi; job and retail markets with pollination, seed dispersal and protection markets between plants and insects; ‘embedded markets’ with grooming markets in non-human primates and so forth. Then I look at some phenomena that are considered to be exclusive to human markets, such as common currencies and binding contracts, and ask whether these are indeed that exclusive. Finally I look at the common ground: negotiations that take place on several types of markets, natural or not; the honesty of advertisements, which is recognised as a major problem for both human and non-human clients; the biological equivalent of the market – firm dichotomy and the importance of the costs of partner choice, which are known to economists as ‘transaction costs’ and to sexual selection theoreticians as ‘search costs’. I conclude that there are several good reasons to have a closer look at those properties that set human and biological markets apart, but certainly also at those features that make them comparable to each other. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, mutualism, trade, biological markets, mating markets, embedded markets, sexual selection, partner choice, currency, binding contract, negotiation, bargaining, honest advertisement, transaction costs, search costs, market – firm dichotomy |
| JEL: | B52 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72509&r=ger |
| By: | Hayette Gatfaoui (IESEG School of Management (LEM) et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Isabelle Nagot (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Philippe de Peretti (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we consider financial markets as complex dynamical systems, and check whether the critical slowing down indicators can be used as early warning signals to detect a phase transition. Using various rolling windows, we analyze the evolution of three indicators: i) First-order autocorrelation, ii) Variance, and iii) Skewness. Using daily data for ten European stock exchanges plus the United States, and focusing on the Global Financial Crisis, our results are mitigated and depend both on the series used and the indicator. Using the main (log) indices, critical slowing down indicators seem weak to predict to Global Financial Crisis. Using cumulative returns, for almost all countries an increase in variance and skewness does preceed the crisis. However, first-order autocorrelations of both log-indices and cumulative returns do not provide any useful information about the Global Financial Crisis. Thus, only some of the reported critical slowing down indicators may have informational content, and could be used as early warnings |
| Keywords: | Global Financial Crisis; Critical Slowing Down; Complex Dynamical System; Phase Transition |
| JEL: | G17 C18 C52 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:16045&r=ger |
| By: | Fischer, Stanley (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:902&r=ger |
| By: | Celestino Girón (European Central Bank); Marta Morano (Autoridad independiente de responsabilidad fiscal); Enrique M. Quilis (Autoridad independiente de responsabilidad fiscal); Daniel Santabárbara (Banco de España); Carlos Torregrosa (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present a methodology designed to estimate the future path of the interest payments of central government. The basic idea is to represent in a compact way the joint dynamics of debt liabilities and interest payments as a function of four elements: the initial outstanding amounts of debt, the expected primary funding needs, the expected yield curves and the expected issuance strategy to be followed by the government. The procedure is amenable to scenario-based simulation and produces a detailed representation of the debt term structure. We provide results for the period 2015-2025. |
| Keywords: | interest payments, yield curve, forward rates, debt dynamics |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E47 E63 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1612&r=ger |
| By: | Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio (University of Naples L’Orientale); Lavadera, Giuseppe Lubrano (University of Salerno); Pastore, Francesco (University of Naples II) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on overeducation by empirically investigating its effects on wages among Ph.D. holders. We analyze data collected in 2009 by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) through a large cross-sectional survey of Ph.D. recipients that allowed us observing their work placement few years after the completion of their studies. We extend previous contributions by providing an analysis based on the identification of genuine overeducation as resulting from the interaction of respondents' assessments that concern the usefulness of their Ph.D. title in order to get and to carry out their current job. The potential endogeneity of self-reported genuine overeducation is corrected by using an instrumental variables approach where the provincial incidence of overeducation among those that share the same educational profile of respondents is used as instrument. Our results suggest that genuine over-education is particularly detrimental for individual wages. It leads to a wage penalty of about between 23% and 25%, more than twice bigger than average, a sizeable gap for the country's compressed wage structure. These results allow us to better understanding the effects of job-education mismatch and provide some useful insights into the evaluation of the career outcomes of doctoral graduates. |
| Keywords: | job-education mismatch, genuine overeducation, overskilling, job satisfaction, wages, Ph.D. holders |
| JEL: | C26 I23 I26 J13 J24 J28 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10051&r=ger |
| By: | Jurriën Bakker; Dennis Verhoeven; Lin Zhang; Bart Van Looy |
| Abstract: | The number of citations that a patent receives is considered an important indicator of the quality and impact of the patent. However, a variety of methods and data sources can be used to calculate this measure. This paper evaluates similarities between citation indicators that differ in terms of (a) the patent office where the focal patent application is filed; (b) whether citations from offices other than that of the application office are considered; and (c) whether the presence of patent families is taken into account. We analyze the correlations between these different indicators and the overlap between patents identified as highly cited by the various measures. Our findings reveal that the citation indicators obtained differ substantially. Favoring one way of calculating a citation indicator over another has non-trivial consequences and, hence, should be given explicit consideration. Correcting for patent families, especially when using a broader definition (INPADOC), provides the most uniform results. |
| Keywords: | patent citations, EPO, USPTO, PCT, patent family, multivariate analysis |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:545092&r=ger |
| By: | Andreja LenarÄ iÄ (European Stability Mechanism); Dirk Mevis (European Stability Mechanism); Dóra Siklós (European Stability Mechanism) |
| Abstract: | The tight linkage between sovereign and bank balance sheets magnified the depth of the European sovereign debt crisis. As a response to this, reform efforts are therefore focused on severing this vicious tie. Some progress has been made. The Banking Union framework addresses the transfer of banking sector risk to the sovereign. Policy makers are now discussing how to address the treatment of sovereign debt on bank balance sheets. Currently, it is treated as risk free. Zero risk weights are applied, meaning banks do not need to set aside capital to protect themselves from potential losses in these securities. Nor do banks have any limits on their exposure to a particular sovereign. This discussion paper analyses the two widely discussed basic options to address this regulatory gap: applying non-zero risk weights to sovereign exposures, and putting limits on exposures to sovereigns, akin to those in place for other exposures. Although this paper analyses each option in isolation, the two complement one another as they target different facets of risk. Positive risk weights address counterparty credit risk, whereas large exposure limits address concentration risk. Both policy options would, according to our analysis, lead to improved bank risk management and render banks more resilient. They would equip them to better absorb losses: positive risk weights would require higher capital buffers and exposure limits would lead to greater diversification. Positive risk weights would also improve risk transparency and correct distorted incentives for investing in sovereign bonds. At the systemic level, leverage would decrease and losses in the event of default would be more spread out. On the downside, both regulatory proposals would lower bank profitability in the short run. In the longer run, positive risk-weights could permanently reduce bank profits by increasing their funding costs, while exposure limits would lead to a more diversified portfolio and lower funding costs. The benefits in terms of increased resilience in the banking sector would come at a cost for some sovereigns. Sovereign bond holdings would become more costly in terms of capital if positive risk weights were applied or the exposures were capped by a hard limit. In both cases, banks would try to deal with excess sovereign bonds on their balance sheets by injecting fresh capital or reducing their portfolio of sovereign bonds. An increased supply of sovereign paper, or a lack of demand for new issues, would raise funding costs for the sovereign and consequently for the whole economy. Furthermore, both policy options would lower liquidity in the sovereign debt markets, as they add to the cost and hinder the ability of banks to provide market-making services. Exposure limits in particular would have significant repercussions on markets in the short run, as banks traditionally have large exposures to domestic sovereigns that they would have to shed. Other market participants would need to absorb this additional supply. Sovereigns would need to re-arrange their financing sources, which could prove challenging. Additionally, the two options could aggravate long-run macro-level cyclical developments for stressed sovereigns. During an economic downturn, an increased riskiness of a sovereign would translate into higher risk weights and a higher capital charge for the bank holding its debt. This would further worsen financing conditions for sovereigns precisely at the time when fiscal space is most needed. Similarly, exposure limits could lead to cliff effects in a downturn, if sovereigns fail to extend their investor base. We expect that introducing positive risk weights would have the largest effect on stressed sovereigns, while imposing exposure limits would impact sovereigns with large outstanding debt volumes the most. The trade-off between strengthening the resilience of the banking sector to sovereign risk and maintaining the investor base for European sovereigns makes the issue of adjusting regulation particularly complex. Any policy decision needs to take into account the effects it would have on sovereign funding conditions. In addition, as banks traditionally hold large amounts of sovereign debt, any regulatory change could have a large initial impact with potentially destabilising consequences. Hence, a gradual and transparent transition would be crucial for a successful implementation of any combination of the two alternatives. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:dpaper:1&r=ger |
| By: | Fırat Bilgel; Burhan Can Karahasan |
| Abstract: | This study seeks to estimate the economic effects of PKK terrorism in Turkey in a causal framework. We create a synthetic control group that reproduces the Turkish real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) before PKK terrorism emerged in the second half of the 1980s. We compare the GDP of the synthetic Turkey without terrorism to the actual Turkey with terrorism for the period 1955-2008. Covering the period of 1988-2008, we find that the Turkish per capita GDP would have been higher by an average of about $1,585 per year had it not been exposed to PKK terrorism. This translates into an average of 13.8 percent higher per capita GDP or a 0.62 percentage points higher annual growth over a period of 21 years. Our estimate is robust to country exclusion, sparse controls, various non-outcome characteristics as predictors of GDP, alternative specifications of the in-space placebo experiments and to other potentially confounding interventions to the sample units in the pre-terrorism period. |
| Keywords: | separatist terrorism, synthetic control, Turkey, economic development, causal inference |
| JEL: | C15 D74 P59 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eiq:eileqs:112&r=ger |
| By: | Paolo Brunori (Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro") |
| Abstract: | Does the way scholars measure inequality of opportunity correspond to how people perceive it? What other factors influence individual perception of this phenomenon? To answer these questions we must first clarify how scholars define and measure inequality of opportunity. We discuss the possible mechanisms linking objective measures to subjective perception of the phenomenon, then propose a measure of perceived inequality of opportunity, and finally test our hypothesis by merging data coming from two sources: the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (2011) and the International Social Survey Programme (2009). We suggest that the prevailing perception of the degree of unequal opportunity in a large sample of respondents is only weakly correlated with its objective measure. We estimate a multilevel model considering both individual and country level controls to explain individual perception of unequal opportunity. Our estimates suggest that the two most adopted measures of inequality of opportunity have not clear role in explaining its perception. Conversely, other country level variables and personal experiences of intergenerational social mobility are important determinants of how inequality of opportunity is perceived. |
| Keywords: | Inequality of opportunity, inequality perception, intergenerational mobility, attribution theory |
| JEL: | D63 A14 D31 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:series:series_wp_04-2016&r=ger |
| By: | Timm Bönke; Markus M. Grabka; Carsten Schröder; Edward N. Wolff; Lennard Zyska |
| Abstract: | Research on wealth inequality usually focuses on real and financial assets, while pension wealth – the present value of future pension entitlements from public and company pension schemes – receives little attention. This is astonishing, given that pension plans play an important role for material security and well‐being for an overwhelming part of the population and, thus, should be accounted for in peoples’ wealth portfolios. Using novel data from the Socio Economic Panel (SOEP), we show the incidence, relevance, and distribution of individual pension wealth, net worth, and augmented wealth (the sum of the two) in Germany. Further, we investigate age‐wealth‐profiles and differences between East and West Germany. |
| Keywords: | net worth, pension wealth, augmented wealth, SOEP, age wealth profiles |
| JEL: | D31 H55 J32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp853&r=ger |
| By: | Dustmann, Christian (University College London); Fasani, Francesco (Queen Mary, University of London); Speciale, Biagio (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of immigrants' legal status on their consumption behavior using unique survey data that samples both documented and undocumented immigrants. To address the problem of sorting into legal status, we propose two alternative identification strategies as exogenous source of variation for current legal status: First, transitory income shocks in the home country, measured as rainfall shocks at the time of emigration. Second, amnesty quotas that grant legal residence status to undocumented immigrants. Both sources of variation create a strong first stage, and – although very different in nature – lead to similar estimates of the effects of illegal status on consumption, with undocumented immigrants consuming about 40% less than documented immigrants, conditional on background characteristics. Roughly one quarter of this decrease is explained by undocumented immigrants having lower incomes than documented immigrants. Our findings imply that legalization programs may have a potentially important effect on immigrants' consumption behavior, with consequences for both the source and host countries. |
| Keywords: | consumption behavior, weather shocks, legal status |
| JEL: | F22 D12 K42 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10029&r=ger |
| By: | Armin Falk (Universität Bonn); Fabian Kosse (University of Bonn); Ingo Menrath (Heinrich Heine University, Department of Medical Sociology); Pablo Emilio Verde (Heinrich Heine University, Department of Medical Sociology); Johannes Siegrist (Heinrich Heine University, Department of Medical Sociology) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates physiological responses to perceptions of unfair pay. We use an integrated approach exploiting complementarities between controlled lab and representative panel data. In a simple principal-agent experiment agents produce revenue by working on a tedious task. Principals decide how this revenue is allocated between themselves and their agents. Throughout the experiment we record agents’ heart rate variability, which is an indicator of stress-related impaired cardiac autonomic control, and which has been shown to predict coronary heart disease in the long-run. Our findings establish a link between unfair payment and heart rate variability. Building on these findings, we further test for potential adverse health effects of unfair pay using observational data from a large representative panel data set. Complementary to our experimental findings we show a strong and significant negative association between unfair pay and health outcomes, in particular cardiovascular health. |
| Keywords: | fairness, social preferences, Inequality, heart rate variability, Health, experiment, SOEP |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D63 I14 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2016-015&r=ger |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This note explores the problem of aggregation with non-convex labor supply decisions in an economy with both straight time and overtime. In contrast to Hansen and Sargent (1988), the paper models this as a sequential decision. Instead of changing from one to infinity, with a sequential non-convexity, the aggregate elasticity of labor supply for overtime work is a function of overall participation rate, and the aggregate elasticity of labor supply for full-time work depends on the share of workers doing overtime. |
| Keywords: | straight time,overtime,indivisible labor,sequential lottery |
| JEL: | J2 E13 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142243&r=ger |
| By: | Caroline Freund (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Euijin Jung (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about half the American workforce, and as a result their needs are deemed important for the economic health of the United States. From this perspective, the fact that 98 percent of exporters are small businesses suggests that trade is a critical component to the economic vitality of SMEs. Proponents of trade agreements argue that such agreements open markets to businesses of all sizes and that simplifying customs and promoting e-commerce can especially help small businesses. But critics of trade agreements cite the relatively high share of total exports by large firms as an indication that large firms—and their investors—are the main beneficiaries of open markets. This Policy Brief examines the evidence for these conflicting claims and shows that exports from both small and large firms are boosted when trade barriers are reduced. Foreign market liberalization offers as much to small firms as it offers to large firms. One important difference is that exports from small firms are likely to be boosted by increased participation—i.e., more firms export when trade costs fall—while exports from large firms are more likely to grow in volume—i.e., each firm exports more. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb16-7&r=ger |
| By: | Silvester Van Koten |
| Abstract: | Self-Regulatory Organizations (SROs) have been argued to be afflicted with incentive-incompatibility problems and, indeed, they have a mixed record in their ability to curb market abuse. An earlier theoretical study by DeMarzo et al. (2005), however, finds that SROs, under the oversight of the government, may overcome these incentive-incompatibility problems and may deliver the same degree of oversight as the government would have delivered without the SRO, but against lower costs. I find that this result hinges on the assumption that the interaction between the SRO and the government can be characterized as a game of sequential moves with the SRO moving first and the government moving second. For institutional settings where it is more appropriate to characterize the interaction as a game of simultaneous moves, I obtain the inefficient result that oversight by the government fully crowds out oversight by the SRO. A possible remedy is suggested. |
| Keywords: | Self-Regulatory organizations, regulation, governmental oversight, simultaneous versus sequential games, costly state verification. |
| JEL: | C72 G18 G28 K20 L44 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/84&r=ger |
| By: | Pål Boug; Ådne Cappelen (Statistics Norway); Anders Rygh Swensen |
| Abstract: | We analyse the behaviour of OPEC as a group for the period 1992 to 2015 by formulating a model that encompasses several of the alternatives discussed in the literature. There is no consensus in the literature on how OPEC behaviour affects crude oil prices. Some studies treat the oil market as a standard competitive market where OPEC plays no important role, whereas others argue that OPEC is a dominant producer with a competitive fringe or a cartel that adjusts its production to influence crude oil prices in a way that benefits the member states. We analyse the behaviour of OPEC as a group for the period 1992 to 2015 by formulating a model that encompasses several of the alternatives discussed in the literature. Applying a system-based cointegration analysis, we find support for the imperfect competition hypothesis regarding the output decision of OPEC. We also find, using full information maximum likelihood and recursive methods, that a dynamic equilibrium correction model with imperfect competition is reasonably stable in-sample and has somewhat better fit than an alternative dynamic model with weaker theoretical underpinnings. However, a forecasting exercise reveals that the dynamic equilibrium correction model breaks down following the OPEC meeting in November 2014. At the end of 2015 the model underpredicts the production of OPEC by almost 2.5 million barrels per day. We therefore conclude that the OPEC behaviour has changed significantly, probably to limit the role of competitors like American producers of shale oil. |
| Keywords: | OPEC behaviour; Economic and econometric modelling; Forecasting |
| JEL: | C51 C52 D43 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:843&r=ger |
| By: | Matthew Masten (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Alexandre Poirier (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We analyze identi cation of nonseparable models under three kinds of exogeneity assumptions weaker than full statistical independence. The first is based on quantile independence. Selection on unobservables drives deviations from full independence. We show that such deviations based on quantile independence require non-monotonic and oscillatory propensity scores. Our second and third approaches are based on a distance-from-independence metric, using either a conditional cdf or a propensity score. Under all three approaches we obtain simple analytical characterizations of identi ed sets for various parameters of interest. We do this in three models: the exogenous regressor model of Matzkin (2003), the instrumental variable model of Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005), and the binary choice model with nonparametric latent utility of Matzkin (1992). |
| Keywords: | Nonparametric Identi cation, Partial Identi cation, Sensitivity Analysis, Nonseparable Models, Selection on Unobservables, Instrumental Variables, Binary Choice |
| JEL: | C14 C21 C25 C26 C51 |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:26/16&r=ger |
| By: | Huck, Steffen; Lünser, Gabriele; Spitzer, Florian; Tyran, Jean-Robert |
| Abstract: | In a laboratory experiment designed to capture key aspects of the interaction between physicians and patients, we study the effects of medical insurance and competition in the guise of free choice of physician, including observability of physicians' market shares. Medical treatment is an example of a credence good: only the physician knows the appropriate treatment, the patient does not. Even after a consultation, the patient is not sure whether he received the right treatment or whether he was perhaps overtreated. We find that with insurance, moral hazard looms on both sides of the market: patients consult more often and physicians overtreat more often than in the baseline condition. Competition decreases overtreatment compared to the baseline and patients therefore consult more often. When the two institutions are combined, competition is found to partially offset the adverse effects of insurance: most patients seek treatment, but overtreatment is moderated. |
| Keywords: | Credence good,Physician,Overtreatment,Competition,Insurance |
| JEL: | C91 I11 I13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2014307r&r=ger |
| By: | Song, Edward |
| Abstract: | Different from past economic research, I incorporate recent theories by climatologists that burning fossil fuels increases the equilibrium level of carbon dioxide, CO2, in the atmosphere into a macroeconomic growth model. In the model, both production and consumption produces $CO_2$ emissions. I also assume that Anthropogenic Global Warming, AGW, not only damages production, but also capital stock and utility. In addition, a boundary condition similar to the Simpson-Kombayashi-Ingersoll (SKI) Limit holds, that there exists a critical temperature which leads to runaway greenhouse warming. Under these assumptions with no alternative fuel sources, and unlimited fossil fuel supply, the economy eventually flat lines (dies). Abatement only delays the inevitable. Using discount factors of .95 and .99, modest abatement policy can increase world welfare but do not increase life expectancy. When the discount factor is zero, conclusions of which policy is best is sensitive to the time horizon policy makers use. If a 100 year time horizon is used, modest consumption abatement may be the best policy, which may actually decrease life expectancy. However, a theoretical infinite time horizon may imply near zero emissions as the growth of damages is reduced and the probability of survival increases. Unfortunately, because humans have finite lives, this creates an ethical dilemma. In order for society to be better off, the current living must sacrifice by accepting policies that lead them to experience near zero output, consumption and near zero lifetime utility and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics, Economic Growth, Climate Change |
| JEL: | E19 O4 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72435&r=ger |
| By: | Daniel MacDonald (California State University, San Bernadino); Eric Nilsson (California State University, San Bernadino) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the price pass-through effect of the minimum wage and use the results to provide insight into the competitive structure of low-wage labor markets. Using monthly price series, we find that the pass-through effect is entirely concentrated on the month that the minimum wage change goes into effect, and is much smaller than what the canonical literature has found. We then discuss why our results differ from that literature, noting the impact of series interpolation in generating most of the previous results. We then use the variation in the size of the minimum wage change to evaluate the competitive nature of low-wage labor markets. Finally, we exploit the rich variation in minimum wage policy of the last 10–15 years—including the rise of state and city-level minimum wage changes and the increased use of indexation—to investigate how the extent of price pass-through varies by policy context. This paper contributes to the literature by clarifying our understanding of the dynamics and magnitude of the pass-through effect and enriching the discussion of how different policies may shape the effect that minimum wage hikes have on prices. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, pass-through effect, monopsony, public policy |
| JEL: | J3 J48 J11 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:16-260&r=ger |
| By: | Matthew Backus; Gregory Lewis |
| Abstract: | Economists have developed empirically tractable demand systems for fixed price markets. In contrast, empirical auction techniques treat each auction in isolation, ignoring market interactions. We provide a framework for estimating demand in a large auction market with a dynamic population of buyers with unit demand and heterogeneous preferences over a finite set of differentiated products. We offer an empirically tractable equilibrium concept under which bidders behave as though they are in a steady-state, characterize bidding, and prove existence of equilibrium. Having developed a demand system, we show that it is non-parametrically identified from panel data, and that this result is robust to typical data limitations, reserve prices, random coefficient demand, public signals that refine beliefs about market conditions, unobserved heterogeneity, idiosyncratic preferences, and random latent outside options. We apply the model to estimate demand and measure consumer surplus in the market for compact cameras on eBay. Our analysis highlights the importance of both dynamic bidding strategies and panel data sample selection issues when analyzing these markets. |
| JEL: | C57 D44 L0 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22375&r=ger |
| By: | Halkos, George; Tsilika, Kyriaki |
| Abstract: | We present data structures from multiregional multisectoral trade activities from the perspective of networks. To illustrate our approach we make use of trade patterns taken from three classical input-output models. Unlike other conventional approaches by which networks statistics are evaluated, here, emphasis is given on recovering the structure architecture of interrelations in the input-output model. By self-explanatory visual outputs we display the interaction of the trading partners, the number of trade links and the density of interrelations. Connectivity and density are quantified by evaluating the node degrees. Our network approach traces the feedback loops among regions and activities. Some global structural properties are also examined. Programming in Mathematica allows for the creation of iterative schemes explaining aspects of the nature of trade and the evolution of spatial trading/production cycles in growing trading systems. Mathematica’s environment enables interactive visual schemes and infinite number of experiments. |
| Keywords: | Trade data visualization; trade networks; Mathematica-based computations; graph theory. |
| JEL: | C63 C65 C67 C88 F10 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72511&r=ger |
| By: | Huber, Martin; Tyahlo, Svitlana |
| Abstract: | This study empirically evaluates the impact of the war in eastern Ukraine on the political attitudes and sentiments towards Ukraine and Russia among the population living close to the war zone on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government. Exploiting unique survey data that were collected in early 2013 (13 months before the outbreak of the conflict) and early 2015 (11 months after the outbreak), we employ two strategies to infer how the war has affected two different groups defined by distance to the war zone. First, we apply a before-after analysis to examine intra-group changes in attitudes over time. Second, we use a difference-in-differences approach to investigate inter-group divergence over time. Under particular assumptions, the latter approach yields a lower absolute bound for the effect. We control for a range of observed characteristics and consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation based on inverse probability weighting. Our results suggest that one year of conflict negatively affected attitudes towards Russia, while mostly no statistically significant intra- or inter-group differences were found for sentiments towards Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | treatment effect; difference-in-differences; political attitudes; war; conflict; Ukraine; Russia |
| JEL: | P26 D74 |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fri:fribow:fribow00472&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea. |
| Keywords: | bonds; local currency; foreign currency; bond yields; emerging East Asia; bonds outstanding; bond issuance; bond market; foreign investor holdings; People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; Viet Nam; credit spreads; government bonds; corporate bonds, Federal Reserve; G3 currency; credit default swaps; interest rate; treasury bonds; treasury bills; central bank |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rps167925-2&r=ger |
| By: | Carlos Alberto Marrugo-Arnedo; Katherin Paola Del Risco-Serje; Verena del Carmen Marrugo-Arnedo; Jorge Antonio Herrera-Llamas; Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena |
| Abstract: | Objetivo: Identificar los factores relacionados con la pobreza en la región Caribe colombiana. Materiales y métodos: Estudio transversal a partir del micro-dato de la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH) 2012. Se estimó un modelo econométrico de Umbral Generalizado, la variable dependiente toma tres valores: uno cuando el hogar no es pobre, dos cuando es moderadamente pobre y tres cuando el hogar es extremadamente pobre. Resultados: Se encontró que el nivel educativo, la ocupación y el tamaño del hogar son las variables de mayor incidencia. Conclusiones: Se evidenció que la educación determina la posición socioeconómica del hogar. Incentivar el empleo y evitar incrementar el tamaño del hogar impactan positivamente en la reducción de la pobreza. |
| Keywords: | Pobreza, determinantes, educación, ocupación, Modelos de respuesta ordenada. |
| JEL: | I30 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2015–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014776&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The Asian Development Bank, Erdenes Mongol LLC, and the Business Council of Mongolia worked together to organize the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Investment Forum that took place on September ??? in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The forum was the first-ever conference to focus on the investment environments in the CAREC countries. More than ??? high-level government o?cials and business leaders from ? countries attended the event to share their insights on how to make e?ective investments within the region. They also shared their experiences and expectations on how to manage investments in Mongolia. The main topics discussed during the conference were: (i) generating a recipe for success in the CAREC region that will focus on identifying and making good investments, (ii) exploring the investment environment and policies in CAREC member countries, and (iii) investing in a regionally connected Mongolia. |
| Keywords: | adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, central asia, mongolia, carec, investment forum, carec investment forum 2015, adb conference proceedings, private sector participation, private investment, investment environments, investments in mongolia, industry and trade, regional cooperation |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167958-2&r=ger |
| By: | Frauke H. Peter; Vaishali Zambre |
| Abstract: | Despite increasing access to university education, students from disadvantaged or non-academic family backgrounds are still underrepresented at universities. In this regard, the economic literature mainly studies the effect of financial constraints on post-secondary educational decisions. Our knowledge on potential effects of other constraints regarding university education is more limited. We investigate the causal relationship between information and educational expectations using data from a German randomized controlled trial in which students in high schools were treated with information on the benefits as well as on different funding possibilities for university education. We find that the provision of information increases intended college enrollment for students from a non-academic family background, while it leads students from academic backgrounds to lower their enrollment intentions. Our results suggest that educational inequality can be reduced by providing students with relevant information, while simultaneously improving post-secondary education matches. |
| Keywords: | Randomized controlled trial, information deficit, educational expectation, college enrollment, educational inequality |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1589&r=ger |
| By: | Eric W. Bond; Joel Trachtman |
| Abstract: | The China—Rare Earths decision of the Appellate Body addressed two main issues: (i) whether China’s obligations not to impose export duties under its accession protocol are subject to exceptions under Article XX of GATT, and (ii) the scope of the exception for China’s export quota measures relating to conservation under Article XX(g) of GATT. In accord with its China—Raw Materials decision, the Appellate Body found that there is no textual basis for application of the Article XX exception to China’s export duty obligations. This interpretation exalted a narrow contextual approach over an approach to interpretation that would focus on broader context, object, and purpose. The Appellate Body also approved the Panel’s overall approach to determining the availability of the Article XX(g) exception. This approach focused on the design and structure of China’s quota measure, but left unresolved important issues, including the extent to which non-conservation purposes may prevent use of the exception and the role of empirical evidence of effects in these determinations. While the Appellate Body found that there is no “even-handedness” requirement in Article XX(g) itself, we argue that the chapeau’s requirement of non-discrimination is an appropriate additional criterion for determining whether a policy with a target of reducing extraction of a natural resource satisfies the requirements of Article XX. |
| Keywords: | WTO Article XX, Dispute Settlement |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/66&r=ger |
| By: | Chowdhury, Nasif |
| Abstract: | Electronic informal (eWOM) is a rising promoting background for customers which affect their evaluation of various existing brands and items, for example, versatile brands through online correspondence channels. The World Wide Web is a magnificent pattern of the thousand years that the key pattern in correspondence has planned. Correspondence is a crucial capacity of the web that is not seen in other media. The World Wide Web gives likelihood to make points of interest to individuals, for example, the distributed business sector, the capacity to return subtle elements through telephone, aides, and productions make considering potential outcomes, and also self-learning. Movies and TV give pleasure, and every one of these things are done in the meantime. This study expects to clarify the impact of electronic informal (eWOM) on customers buy goals in Bangladesh telecom industry. Notwithstanding, the primary components are having audits and the ability to convey, which customizes the correspondence procedure. This study has been roused by the need to see how eWOM impacts buyers' buy goals as to the Bangladesh point of view. |
| Keywords: | Electronic Word of Mouth (eWOM), Consumers Purchase Intentions, Bangladesh Telecommunication Industry, Word of Mouth Marketing |
| JEL: | M31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142747&r=ger |
| By: | Faruk, Balli; Syed Abul, Basher; Rosmy, Jean Louis; Ahmed Saber, Mahmud |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine possible macro-level determinants underlying the number of trips emigrants make back home by exploiting a panel of data comprising 25 countries over the period 1995-2010. To guide the empirical work, we first construct a simple model of the decision by emigrants to visit their home country. The model predicts, among other things, that the effects of distance on the frequency of visiting home are negative but the impact of the host country's wage on the decision to visit home is ambiguous: it depends on the legal status of the emigrants in the host country. Our empirical results based on a pooled estimator support these predictions. First, the number of trips back home is inversely related to distance but positively related to income and institutional quality. Second, emigrants living in Africa and North America are less likely to visit home, whereas emigrants living in the Arabian Gulf countries visit home more often. The results from cross-sectional estimations provide very similar results, indicating that our results are robust to alternative estimation approaches. |
| Keywords: | International Migration; Geographic Labor Mobility; Tourism; Panel Data. |
| JEL: | C23 F22 J61 L83 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72291&r=ger |
| By: | Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr |
| Abstract: | We examine immigrant entrepreneurship and the survival and growth of immigrant-founded businesses over time relative to native-founded companies. Our work quantifies immigrant contributions to new firm creation in a wide variety of fields and using multiple definitions. While significant research effort has gone into understanding the economic impact of immigration into the United States, comprehensive data for quantifying immigrant entrepreneurship are difficult to assemble. We combine several restricted-access U.S. Census Bureau data sets to create a unique longitudinal data platform that covers 1992-2008 and many states. We describe differences in the types of businesses initially formed by immigrants and their medium-term growth patterns. We also consider the relationship of these outcomes to the immigrants' age at arrival to the United States. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J44 J61 L26 M13 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22385&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia has adopted community-driven development as a major strategy for poverty reduction, and replicated the approach nationwide through a number of programs. Over the past few years, the country has formulated a road map for sustaining the systems, procedures, and benefits of community-driven development. Through case studies, the study examines the ongoing transition from the government’s long-standing National Community Empowerment Program to mainstreaming through the government’s regular planning and budget allocation system through the Village Law, which was enacted in early 2014. The study summarizes important lessons learned and policy implications from the first year of Village Law implementation. |
| Keywords: | community, Indonesia, community-driven development program, PNPM-Mandiri, PNPM-Rural, national community empowerment program, CDD mainstreaming, empowerment, Village Law, participatory planning, poverty reduction program, transition |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167829-2&r=ger |
| By: | Bartz, Wiebke (Centre for Development Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management); Mohnen, Pierre (UNU‐MERIT, Maastricht University); Schweiger, Helena (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we compare the impacts of management practices and innovation on productivity, using data from a unique firm-level survey covering 30 mostly developing countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in the period 2011-2014. We adapt the well-established three-stage model by linking productivity to innovation activities and management practices. Results suggest that both returns to innovation and returns to management practices are important drivers of productivity in developing economies. However, productivity in lower-income economies is affected to a larger extent by management practices than by innovation while the opposite holds in higher-income economies. These results imply that firms operating in less favourable business environments can reap large productivity gains by improving the quality of management practices, before engaging in innovation through imitating and adapting foreign technologies. |
| Keywords: | innovation, management practices, productivity, developing countries |
| JEL: | M21 O12 O32 |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2016034&r=ger |
| By: | ZhongXiang Zhang |
| Abstract: | China has realised that for its own sake and from the international community's perspective, it cannot afford to continue on the conventional path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment. Accordingly, the country has placed ecological goals at the same level of priority as policies on economic, political, cultural and social development. Specifically, meeting the grand goal involves not only capping China's nationwide coal consumption to let it peak before 2020 and carbon emissions peak around 2030, but also putting in place a variety of flagship programs and policies. This article argues that the 2030 carbon emissions peak goal is ambitious but achievable and concludes by arguing why there is reason to be optimistic about China's ‘green push’. |
| Keywords: | low-carbon economy, carbon emissions peaks, carbon pricing, energy prices, resource tax reform |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201617&r=ger |
| By: | Schwaab, Bernd; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André |
| Abstract: | We investigate the dynamic properties of systematic default risk conditions for firms in different countries, industries and rating groups. We use a high-dimensional nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model to estimate common components in corporate defaults in a 41 country sample between 1980Q1-2014Q4, covering both the global financial crisis and euro area sovereign debt crisis. We find that macro and default-specific world factors are a primary source of default clustering across countries. Defaults cluster more than what shared exposures to macro factors imply, indicating that other factors also play a signicant role. For all firms, deviations of systematic default risk from macro fundamentals are correlated with net tightening bank lending standards, suggesting that bank credit supply and systematic default risk are inversely related. JEL Classification: G21, C33 |
| Keywords: | credit portfolio models, frailty-correlated defaults, international default risk cycles, state-space methods, systematic default risk |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161922&r=ger |
| By: | Luca Pareschi (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Edoardo Mollona (Dept. of Computer Science and Engeneering, Università di Bologna) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the resistance to the neoliberal discourse supporting privatizations in the Italian sociopolitical field: we address the change from a state control over economy to a situation where most of the state owned enterprises are sold and neoliberal principles are widely adopted and accepted. We focus on resistance, which builds on two frames that differ according to the period when they arise, the words they are composed of, the meanings they bear upon. The first one, which is more prevalent in the period 1984-2000, and that we called Òvalues of developmental stateÓ, opposes privatizations from a technical point of view: it is used in quotes that rationally support state intervention in economy. The second frame, that we called Òstigma privatizationsÓ, becomes prevalent starting in 2000 and appears mainly in articles that deal with societal issues, literature, movies and the wider sociocultural debate. Here influential speakers blame privatizations as something that eroded societal cohesion. To explain the transformation, we mobilize the concept of capital as described by Bourdieu: as economic capital attached to delegitimized institutions erode, discourse on resistance does not disappear but is framed within the fields that are less dependent on economic capital. As a connected contribution, the key role played by cultural capital in preserving areas of resistances revives the debate on the role of intellectuals within power dynamics as described by Antonio Gramsci. From a technical point of view, we study the evolution of the vocabulary of privatizations by analyzing almost 70.000 articles in the period 1984-2014. we use Topic Modeling, that is an automated text analysis technique that elicits topics, which are the sets of words that constitute discourses. We then reconstruct frames starting from these topics. |
| Keywords: | institutional change, privatizations, discourse, frames, topic modeling, symbolic capital, discursive struggles |
| JEL: | H82 L32 L50 M00 P00 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:118&r=ger |
| By: | Boeing, Philipp; Mueller, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | China recently surpassed the USA as the greatest global source of patent applications. However, without internationally comparable measures of patent quality it remains questionable whether China's patent expansion constitutes the rise of a new technological superpower. Our novel quality index is based on citations from international search reports and provides internationally comparable, quality-adjusted figures for applications made under the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT). We show that China's patent expansion has taken place to the detriment of patent quality. Weighting national PCT counts with our index reveals a widening gap between the technological capacities of China and the leading USA. |
| Keywords: | patent quality,national technological capacity,cross-country comparison |
| JEL: | O32 O34 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16048&r=ger |
| By: | Elisabetta Montanaro (Ragnar Nurkse School of Innovation and Governance, Tallinn University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The EU’s institutional architecture for financial regulation, based upon the principles of decentralisation across countries, segmentation across sectors, and voluntary cooperation among national regulators was clearly unsuitable to deal with overall financial stability risks arising from the internationalisation and conglomeration of financial firms. Oppositions to a true European arrangement for burden-sharing, and potential distributional consequences in the event of a crisis of a cross border bank have been the main hurdle to centralisation at European-level financial supervision. At the same time, the objective to create a levelled playing field in the EU single market has been always considered the necessary condition to promote the openness of national financial markets and cross-border banking. The paper aims to demonstrate that, since a single EU financial regulator in a multi-currency area is definitely a no viable alternative, the banking union’s design is just a partial solution for financial stability problems arising from the fragmentation of the single market in the event of idiosyncratic or systemic banking crises. The analysis performed on non-euro countries’ assessments of the pros and cons in joining the banking union clearly shows that until the fiscal responsibility for financial stability remains at the national level, the regulatory centralisation at the EU level cannot severe the traditional divide between home and host supervisors. |
| Keywords: | EU financial regulation; banking union; non-euro countries; CEE countries; cross-border banking |
| JEL: | F35 F65 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper133&r=ger |
| By: | Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo; Kostrzewa, Konrad; Marszal, Anna; Serwa, Dobromil |
| Abstract: | We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk in an emerging market using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts. We compare different specifications of the models allowing for both fixed and time varying LGD, and we use these values to analyze the sovereign credit risk of Polish debt throughout the recent global financial crisis. Our results suggest the presence of a low LGD and a relatively high PD for Poland during the crisis. The highest PD is in the months following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The derived measures of sovereign risk are strongly linked with the level of public debt and with another measure of PD from a structural model. Correlations between our PD values and the CDS spreads heavily depend on the maturity of the sovereign CDS. JEL Classification: C11, C32, G01, G12, G15 |
| Keywords: | CDS spreads, loss given default, Poland, probability of default, sovereign credit risk |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161924&r=ger |
| By: | Yuto Iwasaki (Bank of Japan); Sohei Kaihatsu (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new framework for measuring underlying inflation with multiple core indicators for Japan's consumer price index (CPI). Specifically, a combined core indicator is constructed by applying an econometric method based on dynamic model averaging as a weighted average of individual core indicators. The combined core indicator has time-varying combination weights reflecting changes in the predictive performance of each individual core indicator on a real time basis. Thus, the combined core indicator has the potential to adapt to changes in the nature and sources of price movements. Empirical evidence indicates that the combined core indicator firmly outperforms the individual core indicators over time. In addition, the combination weights for the exclusion-based indicators (e.g., the CPI excluding fresh food) tend to be high when aggregate shocks drive the overall inflation. In contrast, combination weights for the distribution-based indicators (e.g., trimmed mean) tend to be high when idiosyncratic shocks are dominant. |
| Keywords: | Consumer price; Core inflation measure; Dynamic model averaging |
| JEL: | C52 C53 E31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e08&r=ger |
| By: | Cedric Durand (None); Maxime Gueuder |
| Abstract: | During the past decades, the link between profits and domestic investment has weakened in the biggest high-income economies. The present contribution explores this relaxation of the profits-investment nexus through a profit-centred perspective. Focusing on the impact of the origins and uses of profits, we study the investment behaviour of non-financial corporations in relation to their profits at the macro level since 1980, a period marked by financialisation and globalisation. We contrast three competing hypotheses – the Revenge of the Rentiers, the Financial Turn of Accumulation and Globalisation – and test them through a macro panel data analysis for France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period 1980-2012. |
| Keywords: | profits, investment, financialisation, globalisation, macro panel analysis |
| JEL: | E22 F62 G35 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1614&r=ger |
| By: | Carlos Fernando Daza Moreno; Jorge Mario Uribe |
| Abstract: | En este documento se exploran los efectos de la política monetaria de Estados Unidos sobre las economías de Colombia, Perú y Chile. Se hace uso de modelos SVAR-X Se encuentra que la política monetaria estadounidense tiene efectos de escasa magnitud y diversos sobre las economías estudiadas. En Colombia, una política monetaria contractiva externa está acompañada de un leve incremento de la actividad económica dos meses después de su implementación, un escaso descenso de la inflación y una apreciación del tipo de cambio nominal sin persistencia. En Chile y Perú, solo son significativos los impactos sobre el nivel de producción, aunque estos van en sentidos opuestos en cada economía. |
| Keywords: | SVAR, VARX, Política monetaria, Estados Unidos, Economías Emergentes. |
| JEL: | E43 E52 F41 C32 F62 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014794&r=ger |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.); Yanghuiting Wang (Institute of Statistics National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan.) |
| Abstract: | There is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging strategies can be used, especially with the rapid development of natural gas derivatives markets. These hedging instruments include natural gas futures and options, as well as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) prices that are related to natural gas stock prices. The volatility spillover effect is the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical, biological or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility of another physical, biological or financial asset. Investigating volatility spillovers within and across energy and financial markets is a crucial aspect of constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. The paper tests and calculates spillover effects among natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets using the multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK model. The data used include natural gas spot and futures returns data from two major international natural gas derivatives markets, namely NYMEX (USA) and ICE (UK), as well as ETF data of natural gas companies from the stock markets in the USA and UK. The empirical results show that there are significant spillover effects in natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets for both USA and UK. Such a result suggests that both natural gas futures and ETF products within and beyond the country might be considered when constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies for natural gas spot prices. |
| Keywords: | Energy, Natural gas, Spot, Futures, ETF, NYMEX, ICE, Optimal hedging strategy, Covolatility spillovers, Diagonal BEKK. |
| JEL: | C58 D53 G13 G31 O13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1610&r=ger |
| By: | Alex Bara, Gift Mugano & Pierre Le Roux |
| Abstract: | This study seeks to establish the casual relationship between financial development and economic growth in the SADC region, factoring-in the role of financial reforms. Utilising Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM) and Panel Fixed Effects estimations, the study established that financial development has a negative effect on growth in SADC. Underdeveloped financial systems, structure and distribution of credit in the SADC countries and strong country heterogeneity factors are possible explanations to the relationship obtained. The financial reforms in the post liberalisation period have a positive but weak impact on growth in SADC. A bi-directional causality between finance and growth was established, although demand-following causality proved to be stronger. Addressing underlying structural issues in both the financial sector and overall macro economy of SADC countries may help in improving the role of finance in supporting growth in the region. Countries need to continually introduce reforms that enhance performance of their financial sectors. A strong demand-following causality implies that pro-growth policies should be intensified so that growth subsequently pulls with it financial development. |
| Keywords: | financial development, Financial Reforms, economic growth, SADC, Generalised Methods of Moments |
| JEL: | G21 G28 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:615&r=ger |
| By: | Nicolini, Juan Pablo (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we discuss conditions under which adverse expectations can trigger abrupt and large changes in the interest rate at which a sovereign country can borrow in international financial markets. We argue that such changes are caused by self-fulfilling expectations outcomes, in which interest rates are high because the perceptions of future defaults are high, but those perceptions are high precisely because the interest rates are high. {{p}} A model based on these elements successfully simulates the near-default experience of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, among other countries. We show that self-fulfilling traps can occur when two conditions are met: First, the existing level of government debt must be relatively high; second, the probability that the country faces a long period of economic stagnation must be substantial. {{p}} We also show that if a sufficiently large institution is willing to lend to the country, these self-fulfilling traps can be eliminated. Our model thus suggests that the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program adopted by the European Central Bank in the summer of 2012 saved southern European countries from a massive sovereign debt crisis. |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmep:16-8&r=ger |
| By: | Channing Arndt; Vincent Leyaro; Kristi Mahrt; Finn Tarp |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on trends in living standards in Tanzania by analysing child welfare using two multi-dimensional approaches, first-order dominance (FOD) and AlkireFoster (AF). Between 1991/92 and 2010, remarkably similar area rankings emerge that suggest a widening gap between the best and worst performing areas with the majority of areas lying in a tight range in the middle. The methodologies also complement each other by providing upper and lower bounds on underlying welfare dynamics. While both methods point to overall improvements since 1991/92, AF suggests a consistent trend while FOD suggests periods of advance and stagnation. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional poverty, Tanzania, welfare |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-075&r=ger |
| By: | Zaghdoudi, Taha |
| Abstract: | The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a panel logit approach. The results of this model have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis. |
| Keywords: | Banking crisis, logistic panel data |
| JEL: | C23 C25 G01 |
| Date: | 2015–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72363&r=ger |
| By: | Aila Matanock (University of California, Berkeley); Miguel García-Sánchez (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Studies of civil conflict show that insurgencies require social support from civilians to prosper. But these studies’ findings are inconsistent with survey data from many conflict contexts, which routinely show consistently strong support for the counterinsurgents, even in areas of insurgent success. How can we explain this discrepancy? This study builds on the intuition that individuals may feel social pressure, and even fear, that encourages them to report consistently strong support for the military when asked directly—but that this pressure lessens when asked indirectly in a way that allows individuals to conceal their response. Support for the military should thus be lower when measured indirectly than directly, and the difference should be largest where individuals rely on an illegal organization or an illicit activity for their livelihood. We test the theory by randomizing direct and indirect survey questions—specifically a list experiment—in a face-to-face survey conducted in Colombia. |
| Keywords: | Colombia, Violence, Political Development, Public Opinion |
| JEL: | D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:3&r=ger |
| By: | Paul Alagidede and Jones Odei Mensah; Jones Odei Mensah |
| Abstract: | The construction sector in developing countries has propelled economic growth in the most recent period, yet analysis of growth performance has failed to take this into account. This article is a comparative analysis of the relationship between the construction sector and aggregate output for a panel of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a panel generalized methods of moments (GMM). After accounting for the effects of institutional set up, cross sectional heterogeneity and non-linearity, our results revealed that the construction sector affects growth positively and most importantly, developing the right institutions could further enhance this impact. The intrinsically non-linear relationship between construction and output growth is very mute in our sample, suggesting that, SSA countries have not yet reached the stage of development where construction growth becomes trivial. We further show that East Africa experienced a robust impact of construction on economic growth compared to West and Southern Africa. |
| Keywords: | Construction; Output growth; Institutions; Endogeneity |
| JEL: | C51 N6 O4 P48 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:622&r=ger |
| By: | G. Cornelis van Kooten |
| Abstract: | A mathematical programming model is used to examine the impact of carbon taxes on the optimal generation mix in Alberta’s electrical system. The model permits decommissioning of generating assets with high CO2 emissions and investment in new gas, wind and, in some scenarios, nuclear capacity. Although there are interties between Alberta and the U.S. and Saskatchewan, the focus is on the one to British Columbia, as wind energy can potentially be stored in reservoirs behind hydroelectric dams. Storage can also smooth out the net load facing nuclear facilities. In the model, a carbon tax facilitates early removal of coal-fired capacity, which is replaced by low-emissions gas plants. It is only when the carbon tax exceeds $80/tCO2 that wind enters the system, although wind is displaced by nuclear power if that option is permitted. Despite high upfront costs, nuclear outcompetes wind primarily because wind requires a great deal of gas capacity that is not needed with nuclear energy. While wind alone could lower CO2 emissions by two-thirds, nuclear can reduce them by more than 90%. |
| Keywords: | climate change, renewable energy, transmission capacity, energy storage |
| JEL: | Q42 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rep:wpaper:2016-06&r=ger |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Asia’s population is aging and old-age income support and social services is an emerging challenge. Strengthening pension systems in Asia is therefore a key concern for inclusive development in the region. In many Asian countries, pension systems are still inadequate in terms of both coverage and delivery of stipulated benefits. This is particularly so for smaller economies of Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam—or commonly referred to as CLMVT economies. A number of structural issues such as governance, regulation, and institutional and administrative capacities hinder their development. Well-designed, well-functioning, and sustainable pension systems will promote inclusive growth by supporting old-age income and providing the much-needed social safety net. These issues and challenges are discussed in these summary proceedings of the Conference on “Strengthening Public Pension Systems in Asia”, which focused on CLMVT economies organized by the Asian Development Bank and the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute on 3–4 September 2015 in Bangkok. |
| Keywords: | public pension systems, aging population, old-age income, social services, CLMVT, rapid aging |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167902-2&r=ger |
| By: | Gonzalo Sanz Cerbino |
| Abstract: | En el presente trabajo intentaremos poner en cuestión una idea dominante respecto a la intervención política de la burguesía argentina: la fortaleza de la burguesía agraria más concentrada para imponer sus intereses económico-corporativos a diferentes gobiernos en la segunda mitad del siglo XX, discutiendo la pertinencia del concepto de "oligarquía". Luego de evaluar críticamente la producción sobre el tema, analizaremos algunos datos cuantitativos que nos permitirán poner en duda los supuestos dominantes. Por último, presentaremos un estudio de caso en el que observaremos la relación política establecida por la burguesía agropecuaria con los gobiernos que siguieron al golpe de estado de 1966. En particular, las gestiones de los diferentes equipos que pasaron por la cartera de Agricultura y Ganadería entre 1966 y 1971, su relación con las corporaciones agrarias y los límites que encontraron para desplegar su política. |
| Keywords: | Oligarquía, Dominación social, Política agropecuaria. |
| JEL: | D72 D74 D78 |
| Date: | 2014–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000382:014774&r=ger |
| By: | Morgan, Peter (Asian Development Bank Institute); Regis, Paulo José (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Salike, Nimesh (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | Credit creation in the housing market has been a key source of systemic financial risk, and therefore is at the center of the debate on macroprudential policies. The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is a widely-used macroprudential tool aimed at moderating mortgage loan creation, and its effectiveness needs to be estimated empirically. This paper is unique in that it analyzes the effect of LTV on mortgage lending, the direct channel of influence, using a large sample of banks in ten Asian countries. It uses estimation techniques to deal with the large presence of outliers in the data. Robust to outlier estimations show that countries with LTV polices have expanded residential mortgage loans by 6.7% per year while non-LTV countries have expanded by 14.6%, which suggests LTV policies have been effective. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policies, financial stability, robust to outliers regression, mortgage loan creation |
| JEL: | C23 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2015-03&r=ger |
| By: | Etzo, Ivan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of migration on both inbound and outbound Japanese tourism flows during the period 2000-2013. The results reveal that the stock of immigrants in Japan represents an important determinant of inbound tourism flows. The effect remains positive and statistically significant after disaggregating the flows by purpose of visit, though the impact is higher for “holiday” than for “business” arrivals. The number of Japanese residing abroad does not affect the inbound tourist arrivals. On the contrary, they exert a noticeable effect on outbound tourism flows, whilst immigrants in Japan seem not to have a significant effect. |
| Keywords: | outbound tourism, inbound tourism, migration, Japan |
| JEL: | F22 L83 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72457&r=ger |
| By: | Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.; Wang, C-H. |
| Abstract: | It is well known that that there is an intrinsic link between the financial and energy sectors, which can be analyzed through their spillover effects, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility in both spot and futures markets. Financial derivatives, which are not only highly representative of the underlying indices but can also be traded on both the spot and futures markets, include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which is a tradable spot index whose aim is to replicate the return of an underlying benchmark index. When ETF futures are not available to examine spillover effects, “generated regressors” may be used to construct both Financial ETF futures and Energy ETF futures. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the co-volatility spillovers within and across the US energy and financial sectors in both spot and futures markets, by using “generated regressors” and a multivariate conditional volatility model, namely Diagonal BEKK. The daily data used are from 1998/12/23 to 2016/4/22. The data set is analyzed in its entirety, and also subdivided into three subset time periods. The empirical results show there is a significant relationship between the Financial ETF and Energy ETF in the spot and futures markets. Therefore, financial and energy ETFs are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective, and also for dynamic hedging purposes. |
| Keywords: | Exchange traded funds, financial and energy sectors, co-volatility spillovers, spot and futures prices, generated regressors, Diagonal BEKK |
| JEL: | C58 G13 G23 G31 Q41 |
| Date: | 2016–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:93118&r=ger |
| By: | Clare O'Kane; Alina Potts; Gabrielle Berman; Jason Hart; Dónal O'Mathúna; Erica Mattellone; Jeremy Shusterman; Thomas Tanner; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | This working paper identifies and explores the issues that should be considered when undertaking ethical research involving children in humanitarian settings. Both the universal (i.e. relevant to all research involving children) and specific ethical issues that may arise when involving children in research in humanitarian settings are examined. This is undertaken through a review of the literature, relevant case studies, and a reflection on the ethical issues highlighted in UNICEF’s Procedure for Ethical Standards in Research, Evaluation, Data Collection and Analysis (the Ethics Procedure). The key findings of this overview highlight that many of the ethical issues that are present in other settings remain relevant and applicable in the context of humanitarian settings. These include: an institution’s capacity to appropriately and respectfully engage children in research, understanding power relations, securing informed consent and assent, ascertaining harms and benefits, maintaining privacy and confidentiality, and ensuring appropriate communication of findings. |
| Keywords: | ethics; humanitarian emergencies; literature surveys; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa849&r=ger |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This note explores the problem of non-convex labor supply decision in an economy with both discrete and continuous labor decisions. In contrast to the setup in Mc- Grattan, Rogerson and Wright (1997), here each household faces an indivisible labor supply choice in the market sector, while it can choose to work any number of hours in the non-market sector. We show how lotteries as in Rogerson (1988) can again be used to convexify consumption sets, and aggregation over individual preferences. With a mix of discrete and continuous labor supply decisions, disutility of non-market work becomes separable from market work, and the elasticity of the latter increases from unity to infinity. |
| Keywords: | indivisible labor,non-convexities,home production,lotteries,aggregation,discrete-continuous mix |
| JEL: | E1 J22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142234&r=ger |
| By: | Zhang, Yongfeng; Zhao, Qi; Zhang, Yi; Friedman, Daniel; Zhang, Min; Liu, Yiqun; Ma, Shaoping |
| Abstract: | A prime function of many major World Wide Web applications is Online Service Allocation (OSA), the function of matching individual consumers with particular services/goods (which may include loans or jobs as well as products) each with its own producer. In the applications of interest, consumers are free to choose, so OSA usually takes the form of personalized recommendation or search in practice. The performance metrics of recommender and search systems currently tend to focus on just one side of the match, in some cases the consumers (e.g. satisfaction) and in other cases the producers (e.g., profit). However, a sustainable OSA platform needs benefit both consumers and producers; otherwise the neglected party eventually may stop using it. In this paper, we show how to adapt economists' traditional idea of maximizing total surplus (the sum of consumer net benefit and producer profit) to the heterogeneous world of online service allocation, in an effort to promote the web intelligence for social good in online eco-systems. Modifications of traditional personalized recommendation algorithms enable us to apply Total Surplus Maximization (TSM) to three very different types of real-world tasks - e-commerce, P2P lending and freelancing. The results for all three tasks suggest that TSM compares very favorably to currently popular approaches, to the benefit of both producers and consumers. |
| Keywords: | Total Surplus Maximization,Online Service Allocation,Computational Economics,Recommendation Systems,Web-based Services |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmdn:spii2016502&r=ger |
| By: | Tang, Can (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Liqiu (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | We present the first systematic study on child labour in China. Child labour is not a negligible social phenomenon in China; about 7.74% of children aged from 10 to 15 were working in 2010, and they worked for 6.75 hours per day on average, and spent 6.42 hours less per day on study than other children. About 90% of child labourers were still in school and combined economic activity with schooling. Our results show that child labour participation is positively associated with school dropout rate. A child living in a rural area is more likely to work. Compared with place of residence, the gender of a child is less important. The educational level of the household head and its interaction with the gender of the household head seem to be unimportant. However, household assets per capita and household involvement in non-agricultural activities are negatively related to the incidence of child labour. A child from a household with more adults is less likely to work. The prevalence of child labour in China exhibits significant regional variations. The child labour incidence is correlated with the development level of each region: the Western region has the highest percentage of child labour, followed by the Eastern and Central region. |
| Keywords: | Child labour, Early leavers, School dropouts, Working hours, China |
| JEL: | J43 J81 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2016036&r=ger |
| By: | Ugo Finzi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Stefania Pelizzari (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies) |
| Abstract: | The World Furniture Outlook 2016-2017 by CSIL provides an overview of the world furniture industry with historical statistical data (production, consumption, imports, exports) and 2017 furniture markets scenario for 70 countries. This market research report also includes: Growth of furniture imports worldwide and the role of furniture exporting countries in the marketplace Market shares of the major furniture exporters are provided by geographical region Analysis of the opening of furniture markets that covers the past nine years, with trade balance, imports/consumption and exports/production ratio data. Statistics and outlook data are also available in a country format: origin of furniture imports destination of furniture exports historical series on furniture production historical series on furniture market size historical series on furniture trade country rankings to place all statistics in a broad worldwide context. The seventy country tables have been expanded to include three additional items: Total household consumption expenditure (in billions of US$) Total GNP at purchasing power parity (in billions of US$) Per capita GNP at purchasing power parity (in US$) Key issues of the World Furniture Outlook 2016-2017 market research report: a picture of opportunities for furniture exporters arising from the increasing openness of markets a rich collection of key country-data, allowing comparisons among specific interest areas. prospects of world furniture trade in 2016-2017, 2016 and 2017 forecasts on the evolution of furniture markets in the considered countries, based on the analysis of furniture industry dynamics and of macro-economic indicators Countries covered (selected according to their contribution to production and international trade of furniture): Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Malaysia, Malta, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Venezuela, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | L11 L68 L81 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mst:csilre:w0a&r=ger |
| By: | Mani Sunil (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, KeralaCentre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, Kerala, India) |
| Abstract: | India is one of the fastest growing countries of the world at present. Currently she is attempting to raise the share of her manufacturing sector to at least a quarter of her GDP by 2022 through variety of proactive industrial policies. This has led to a debate of sorts on the role of industrial policies when the economy is moving towards a free market economy where the discretionary role of government is reduced to a minimum. India's small manufacturing sector, although now sixth largest in the world, is slowly moving towards high and medium technology industries, both in terms of manufacturing value added and in terms of share of manufactured exports. India is now slowly becoming an important player in selected high and medium high technology sectors such as aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles while her attempts at developing a telecommunications equipment manufacturing industry has failed. The paper identifies the vertical policies that have been crucial for the development or lack of it of each of these four high tech industries. While these vertical policies are shown to be one of the necessary conditions for the growth of these high technology sectors, the sufficient conditions depend on the existence of firm strategies that can take advantage of these proactive vertical policies. The paper thus underscores the importance of specific vertical policies be it is the case of the offset policy in the case of the aerospace industry, the patent policy in the case of the pharmaceutical industry and so on. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:16-08&r=ger |
| By: | Cecilia Garavito (Departamento de Economía de la PUC del Perú) |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar las transiciones desde el trabajo del hogar remunerado hacia otras ocupaciones, el desempleo y la inactividad, así como los determinantes de estas transiciones. Para ello empleamos los datos panel de la ENAHO para los periodos 1998 – 2002, 2002 – 2006 y 2007 – 2011. Luego de un análisis detallado de las transiciones parciales y totales de cada panel, encontramos que alrededor de un tercio de las trabajadoras del hogar se quedan en la misma ocupación y que un porcentaje similar pasa a al trabajo independiente o a ocupaciones asalariadas de baja productividad. Luego de estimar las transiciones desde el trabajo del hogar remunerado hacia otras ocupaciones y hacia el desempleo o la inactividad, encontramos que un mayor nivel de educación está siempre asociado a una salida hacia otra ocupación. Asimismo, un mayor salario potencial tiene un efecto positivo en la salida hacia otras ocupaciones solamente en el panel 2002 – 2006, el único en el cual no hay crisis económicas. Por otro lado, la edad siempre disminuye la movilidad laboral. Finalmente, encontramos que en los paneles 1998 – 2002 y 2007 – 2001, en los cuales hay crisis económicas, aumentan tanto las salidas hacia otras ocupaciones —posiblemente relacionadas a caídas en la demanda—, así como las salidas hacia la inactividad. JEL Classification-JEL: J15 , J16 , J21 , J46 |
| Keywords: | Género , mercado de trabajo , oferta de trabajo , trabajo del hogar remunerado , Transiciones Laborales |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00424&r=ger |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Jacinta C. Nwachukwu (Coventry University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines interconnections between law, politics and the quality of government in Africa. We investigate whether African democracies enjoy relatively better government quality compared to their counterparts with more autocratic inclinations. The empirical evidence is based on Instrumental variable Two-Stage-Least Squares and Fixed Effects with data from 38 African countries for the period 1994-2010. Political regimes of democracy, polity and autocracy are instrumented with income-levels, legal-origins, religious-dominations and press-freedom to account for government quality dynamics, of corruption-control, government-effectiveness, voice and accountability, political-stability, regulation quality and the rule of law. Findings show that democracy has an edge over autocracy while the latter and polity overlap. As a policy implication, democracy once initiated should be accelerated to edge the appeals of authoritarian regimes. |
| Keywords: | Law; Politics; Democracy; Government Policy; Development |
| JEL: | K00 O10 P16 P43 P50 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/019&r=ger |
| By: | Mário Jorge Mendonça; Tito Belchior Moreira; Luis Alberto Medrano; George Henrique Cunha |
| Abstract: | Este estudo tem como objetivo revisitar o problema da sustentabilidade do endividamento público no Brasil, investigando a evolução da dívida bruta do setor público (DBSP), a relação entre os seus passivos e haveres, a implicação futura da dívida bruta sobre a dívida líquida, além de fazer previsão sobre a dívida bruta do governo geral (DBGG) para os próximos dois anos. Mostramos que o exame pontual do conceito de dívida líquida (dívida bruta menos ativos do setor público) pode encobrir questões importantes acerca do endividamento.Coube indagar se é possível ter alguma ideia acerca do comportamento futuro da dívida líquida com base na performance presente da dívida bruta. Nesse contexto, realizamos um teste de causalidade de Granger entre a dívida líquida do governo geral (DLGG) e a DBGG. Os resultados empíricos mostram que a DBGG causa no sentido de Granger a DLGG.Com base no modelo fatorial dinâmico (MFD) foi feita previsão da razão DBSP/produto interno bruto (PIB) e seus componentes para o horizonte de 24 meses. Os resultados mostram que a previsão é de subida forte para a dívida externa e das operações compromissadas. Em agosto de 2016, a previsão é que elas alcancem os valores, respectivamente, de 10% e 17% do PIB. Os resultados empíricos também mostram a previsão da dívida líquida do setor público (DLSP). Vimos que essa variável chega a 44% do PIB em agosto de 2016. Observa-se ainda a previsão para o PIB acumulado que apresenta queda forte na atividade econômica. Entre setembro de 2015 a agosto de 2016, a previsão é de retração de 3,5%.Por fim, testamos qual o efeito do endividamento sobre o crescimento da economia. Os resultados empíricos mostram que as variações da DBGG e da DLGG como proporção do PIB têm efeito negativo sobre a taxa de crescimento do PIB no período analisado e que, a partir da crise do subprime em 2009, esse efeito negativo se intensificou. This study aims to revisit the issue of the sustainability of public indebtedness in Brazil, investigating the evolution of gross debt of public sector, the relationship between its liabilities and assets of the public sector, the future implications of gross debt to net debt and to make forecast of the gross debt of the general government for the next two years. We show that the examination of the concept of net debt (gross debt less public sector assets) can cover up important questions about the public indebtedness.We ask if one can have some idea about the future behavior of net debt based on the present performance of gross debt. In this context, we conducted a Granger causality test between the net (DLGG) and gross debt (DBGG) of the general government. Empirical results show that DBGG Granger cause DLGG.We apply the Dynamic Factorial Model (MFD) to make forecast on the gross debt of public sector and its major components. The results display a strong rise in foreign debt and repurchase agreements. In August 2016 they reach, respectively, 10% and 17% of GDP. The results also show the forecast of the net debt (DLSP). It is shown that DLSP reaches 44% of GDP in August 2016. The GDP also shows sharp drop in economic activity. From September 2015 to August 2016 this variable decreases around 3.5%. Finally, we check the effect the indebtedness on economic growth. The empirical results show that the rise of both the gross and the net debt as a proportion of GDP has a negative effect on the growth rate of the GDP. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2197&r=ger |
| By: | Minh-Tam T. Bui and Arayah Preechametta |
| Abstract: | Land redistribution and agricultural collective production were the key components of agrarian reforms implemented by the Vietnamese Communist Party in the south of the country after 1975. Land inequality was serious in the region under the Republic of Vietnam's regime. The new government struggled with agricultural collectivisation contributing to the decline in rice productivity. This study explains the persistence of a market-based agricultural production in the southern economy under the new political regime. Beside the economic reasons and arguments of local peasants' everyday politics cited in the literature, we argue that the de facto political power of the middle-class landowners was an important factor impeding the performance of agricultural cooperatives. It also implies that agricultural productivity was more vital than land inequality during the study period. We apply the model of Acemoglu and Robinson explaining how de facto political power helps elites to maintain their economic institutions in spite of a political change. |
| Keywords: | land inequality, agrarian reform, collectivisation, de facto political power, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201625&r=ger |
| By: | Frutos, Juan Carlos; Garcia-de-Andoain, Carlos; Heider, Florian; Papsdorf, Patrick |
| Abstract: | This paper documents stress in the unsecured overnight interbank market in the euro area over the course of the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We find that stress i) leads some banks to borrow in the market at rates that are higher than the rate of the marginal lending facility of the ECB, ii) leads to less cross-border transactions and contributes to the fragmentation of the euro area money market. A triple-difference estimate shows that the borrowing of banks in the periphery from banks in the core almost disappears in the second half of 2011. Domestic borrowing, however, replaces the loss of cross-border borrowing. Our findings document the severe malfunctioning of the market for liquidity caused by asymmetric information problems in crisis times. We exploit euro area payments data to construct a novel dataset of interbank lending and borrowing. We verify the validity of our approach using the post-trading structure MID, maintained at Banco de España. Based on our results, we conclude that MID is a very high quality source of Spanish interbank market data for research and policy purposes. JEL Classification: G01, G21, E58, F36 |
| Keywords: | European sovereign debt crisis, financial crisis, Furfine algorithm, interbank markets, payment systems |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161925&r=ger |
| By: | Gareth W. Peters; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Bertrand Hassani; Ariane Chapelle |
| Abstract: | Recently, Basel Committee for Banking Supervision proposed to replace all approaches, including Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), for operational risk capital with a simple formula referred to as the Standardised Measurement Approach (SMA). This paper discusses and studies the weaknesses and pitfalls of SMA such as instability, risk insensitivity, super-additivity and the implicit relationship between SMA capital model and systemic risk in the banking sector. We also discuss the issues with closely related operational risk Capital-at-Risk (OpCar) Basel Committee proposed model which is the precursor to the SMA. In conclusion, we advocate to maintain the AMA internal model framework and suggest as an alternative a number of standardization recommendations that could be considered to unify internal modelling of operational risk. The findings and views presented in this paper have been discussed with and supported by many OpRisk practitioners and academics in Australia, Europe, UK and USA, and recently at OpRisk Europe 2016 conference in London. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.02319&r=ger |
| By: | Bennet Berger; Pia Hüttl; Silvia Merler |
| Abstract: | Please see the PDF version of the paper for footnotes, references, and appendices. Highlights The European Union’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive foresees a ‘minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities’ (known as MREL) that banks need to comply with in order to ensure the effectiveness of the bail-in tool. The details of how MREL should be constructed in practice are under discussion. We look at alternative ways to compute MREL, showing how the choice of the benchmark metric (risk weighted assets, total assets or leverage exposure) can change the allocation of requirements across banks. We also review MREL in light of the global effort to ensure future resolvability of banks, highlighting some differences with, and inconsistencies in relation to, the Financial Stability Board’s total loss-absorption capacity (TLAC) measure. 1 Introduction The financial and euro-area crises showed how costly it can be for the public sector to take charge of banking sector problems. Between 2007 and 2013, European Union governments provided €836 billion to guarantee bank funding and €448 billion to recapitalise banks1. The Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) was introduced to establish a new framework for resolving banks with reduced involvement of taxpayers in bank rescues. The backbone of the new approach is the bail-in tool, which requires a greater share of the cost of recapitalisation or resolution to be shifted onto private creditors. For bail-in to be effective, the BRRD foresees a minimum requirement for eligible liabilities and own funds (MREL) that banks need to comply with. Effective resolution of banks is however a global priority, and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) set in 2011 a global standard for total loss absorption capacity (TLAC), applying to global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), which needs to be transposed into EU law. How can the design of MREL be made consistent with both TLAC and the requirements of the BRRD? The two concepts have significant conceptual and operational differences and there is a strong rationale for harmonisation, to avoid creating confusion and uncertainty. We briefly review the differences and comment specifically on the choice of the measure through which requirements are expressed - risk-weighted assets or total assets. 2 MREL and TLAC - the background Before embarking on the data analysis, it is useful to briefly review the regulatory background to MREL. Article 45 of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) requires that banks hold sufficient bail-in-able liabilities and meet at all times a minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL). MREL is currently envisaged as a Pillar 2 measure2, ie not a minimum standard but one set individually for each bank. While the concept of MREL is defined in the BRRD, its operational definition is left to the European Banking Authority (EBA)3, which published Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS) on 3 July 2015. These set out an MREL measure that combines a loss-absorption amount and a recapitalisation amount (Figure 1). The first component needs to be sufficient to ensure that losses are absorbed. The EBA argues that the regulatory capital requirements reflect the judgement of the supervisor about the level of unexpected losses that an institution should be able to absorb, so as a baseline, losses equal to capital requirements should be absorbed. Combined buffer requirements foreseen in the Capital Requirements Directive (CRDIV) could be added as could any existing Pillar 2 requirements. The EBA RTS leave discretion to the resolution authority to change these requirements, subject to consultation with the supervisor. In particular, MREL can be adjusted based on the estimated contribution of the Deposit Guarantee Scheme, or to reflect specific features of the institutions, such as business model risk profile or governance. Figure 1 - MREL according to EBA RTS Source - Bruegel, based on EBA RTS. The second component is a recapitalisation amount, which should ensure the institution is able to re-enter the market. For those institutions that can be liquidated credibly and safely, the EBA argues that the recapitalisation amount should be zero. If this is not the case, then the recapitalisation amount should at least enable institutions to comply with the minimum criteria required to obtain the supervisor’s authorisation to operate, so an 8 percent total capital ratio. However, the resolution authority can increase this, if deemed necessary to “maintain sufficient market confidence after resolution” (EBA, 2016). For systemically important institutions – which are unlikely to be easily liquidated or resolved without the use of external funds – the draft RTS require the resolution authority to confirm, as part of its assessment of MREL, that the bank’s resolution plan is compatible with the ‘burden sharing’ clause of the BRRD (Article 44(5)), which prescribes a bail-in amount of 8 percent of total liabilities before any external funds can be accessed. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:15646&r=ger |
| By: | Maidana, Marcos Ignacio |
| Abstract: | El objetivo general de la presente investigación consiste en estudiar los factores que dan origen a los emprendedores tecnológicos. El trabajo parte de la teoría existente, y se deriva de ella una serie de proposiciones de las cuales se intenta encontrar evidencia a partir de un estudio de caso. El análisis se realiza por medio de una estrategia cualitativa de investigación, utilizando la entrevista en profundidad como herramienta para la recolección de información. En el desarrollo del trabajo se aborda la conceptualización referida a los emprendedores y sus características, las motivaciones para emprender (oportunidad o necesidad), la velocidad de crecimiento (emprendimientos gacela) e internacionalización (born global) y el uso de redes. Todos estos factores se enfocan al tema principal y aportan a la investigación planteada. Los resultados indican que los factores psicológicos son importantes y determinantes para convertirse en un emprendedor tecnológico; no así los factores denominados sociales, ya que estos factores influyen en la personalidad de los emprendedores tecnológicos pero no de una manera sustancial. Surgen como relevantes, dentro de las cualidades de los emprendedores tecnológicos su habilidad, su gran capacidad creativa y de innovación. Es de destacar que este tipo de emprendedores tiene un gran conocimiento general e integral que le permite tener acceso a distintos vínculos (redes) y una gran capacidad de adaptación a las nuevas circunstancias y sobre todo para la resolución de problemas. De este análisis se desprende que pueden y saben interpretar lo que les ofrece el mercado en temas tecnológicos cercanos a sus conocimientos y en función de ello actúan en consecuencia, insertándose o desarrollando un producto cuya oferta actual en el mercado es ineficiente. Esta capacidad de leer las necesidades tecnológicas también son aplicadas para desarrollarse a nivel internacional. En cuanto a la participación de este tipo de emprendedores en la formación de empresas gacela, se observa que su gran capacidad de innovación y perseverancia, influyen positivamente en la creación de empresas tecnológicas. La rápida capacidad de resolución de problemas y la gran reacción para dar una respuesta favorable a estos se aplica también al ámbito tecnológico. Las redes ya sean estas de innovación, sociales, personales o empresariales son una base y pilar fundamental para la creación e inicio de las empresas. Estas le van a proveer a la empresa las vinculaciones desde su creación, con proveedores locales, internacionales, clientes, competencia, etc. Una diferencia si se quiere destacar del emprendedor tecnológico con el simple emprendedor es que el primero por la red de contactos a la que está vinculado participa de congresos, ya sean estos nacionales o internacionales que lo vinculan y lo insertan directamente al campo tecnológico. Por último, en referencia a la inserción internacional de las empresas de base tecnológica, se puede agregar que al realizar productos con un alto contenido de tecnología de punta, favorece el ingreso a otros países y mercados tanto nacionales como internacionales reemplazando otros productos de producción más básica y con tecnología más antigua. En este punto aparece como relevante la legislación vigente en cada país que puede estimular o no la exportación o radicación en otros países y definir una estrategia de incorporación de socios locales o representantes mediante la adaptación de la empresa a la legislación de cada país. Este tipo de emprendedores (tecnológicos) haciendo uso de la capacidad que tienen para adaptarse y el modo de la resolución de problemas, en algunos casos exportan sus productos o directamente optan por formar una empresa en el país donde pretenden desarrollarse para a partir de ahí enfocar la producción. |
| Keywords: | Emprendedores; Motivación; Empresas; Tecnología; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2500&r=ger |
| By: | Christoph Graf; Claudio Marcantonini |
| Abstract: | Electricity production from renewable sources generally displaces thermal generation, which leads to lower CO2 emissions in the power sector. However, the intermittent nature of many renewable technologies leads to greater inefficiencies in the operation of existing fossil power plants. This inefficiency translates into higher production costs as well as a higher rate of emissions relative to output. In this paper we focus on Italian power installations. Using panel econometrics, we show that a 10% increase in photovoltaics and wind infeed has reduced yearly CO2 emissions of the average thermal installation by about 4% while the average plants emissions relative to its output have increased by about 0.3% between 2005 and 2014. Given the additional inefficiency caused by intermittent renewables, our results suggest that the average installation actually only achieves around 94% of the expected reductions. The effect is more pronounced for installations that have not been retrofitted and for installations serving peak demand. |
| Keywords: | Emission factors, load-cycling, inefficiency |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/16&r=ger |
| By: | Gawlik, Remigiusz |
| Abstract: | The paper aims at recognizing the possibilities and perspectives of application of qualitative-quantitative research methodology in the field of economics, with a special focus on production engineering management processes. The main goal of the research is to define the methods that would extend the research apparatus of economists and managers by tools that allow the inclusion of qualitative determinants into quantitative analysis. Such approach is justified by qualitative character of many determinants of economic occurrences. At the same time quantitative approach seems to be predominant in production engineering management, although methods of transposition of qualitative decision criteria can be found in literature. Nevertheless, international economics and management could profit from a mixed methodology, incorporating both types of determinants into joint decision-making models. The research methodology consists of literature review and own analysis of applicability of mixed qualitative-quantitative methods for managerial decision-making. The expected outcome of the research is to find which methods should be applied to include qualitative-quantitative analysis into multicriteria decision-making models in the fields of economics, with a special regard to production engineering management. |
| Keywords: | qualitative-quantitative analysis; hierarchical decision-making; neural-network models; management; manufacturing processes |
| JEL: | C45 C65 D79 D81 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72362&r=ger |
| By: | Osmar Coelho Filho; Nilo Luiz Saccaro Junior; Gustavo Luedemann |
| Abstract: | A avaliação do ciclo de vida (ACV) tem sido utilizada em todo o mundo para orientar ações de melhoria de desempenho e inovação em sistemas de produção, visando sua sustentabilidade ambiental. Entretanto, mesmo com a ampla disseminação da ACV no cenário internacional, a ferramenta ainda é pouco difundida e aplicada no Brasil. Esta pesquisa se dedicou a analisar as etapas de construção da ACV, seu potencial de aplicação em diferentes setores da economia e as condicionantes para seu uso em políticas públicas no Brasil. A metodologia de pressão-estado-resposta foi utilizada para avaliar os fatores de pressão e cenários futuros para a utilização da ACV no país, incluindo a governança da informação necessária à implementação. Foi realizado um questionário semiaberto, baseado na análise de literatura sobre o tema, com stakeholders representativos da academia, do setor público e do setor produtivo. A percepção dos stakeholders indicou a ACV como uma tendência do mercado internacional, vista como o paradigma para o ecodesign de produtos e processos, o que impulsiona cada vez mais sua popularização entre os agentes privados, embora seu custo ainda seja proibitivo para médias e pequenas empresas. Novas abordagens nacionais para a implantação da ACV (modular e escalonada) foram propostas para contornar este problema, permitindo que esta possa ser encarada não apenas como instrumento de comando e controle da política ambiental, mas também como ferramenta para a gestão da inovação. O avanço da tecnologia da informação (TI) e a convergência de bancos de dado foram apontados como relevantes, capazes de acelerar a implementação de abordagens de ACV adaptadas a diferentes setores econômicos. Há certo consenso de que a utilização da ACVna construção e na avaliação de políticas públicas requer uma etapa prévia de disseminação do pensamento de ciclo de vida (PCV) entre os stakeholders. A principal conclusão é que a ACV pode representar um papel importante na busca da sustentabilidade ambiental no Brasil, em um contexto de desafios climáticos e ambientais que afetarão o desempenho dos sistemas de produção. Life cycle analysis (LCA) has been used worldwide to guide innovation improving performance actions of and in production systems directed to the environmental sustainability. However, even with the wide dissemination of LCA internationally, the tool is still not very well known and applied in Brazil. This research is dedicated to examining the stages of construction of the LCA, its potential for application in different economy sectors and its use constraints in Brazilian public policies. The methodology Pressure-State-Response was used to assess the Pressure factors and future scenarios for LCA use in the country, including the information governance necessary for its implementation. A half-open questionnaire based on literature review on the topic was applied with representative stakeholders from academia, the public sector and the productive sector. The perception of stakeholders indicated that LCA as an international market trend, seen as the paradigm for the eco-design of products and processes, which boosts its increasingly popularization among private agents, although its cost is still prohibitive for medium and small enterprises. New national approaches to the implementation of the LCA (modular, staged) have been proposed to overcome this problem by allowing LCA to be seen not only as command and control environmental policy instrument but also as a tool for innovation management. The advancement of information technology and databases convergence was identified as relevant for accelerating the LCA approaches implementation adapted to different economic sectors. There is some consensus that LCA use in the public policies construction and evaluation require a preliminary stage of dissemination on Life Cycle Thinking (LCT) among the stakeholders. The main research conclusion is that LCA can play an important role in the pursuit of environmental sustainability in Brazil, in the context of climate and environmental challenges that will affect the production systems performance. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2205&r=ger |
| By: | Ghani,Syed Ejaz; Grover,Arti; Kerr,William Robert |
| Abstract: | Although many studies consider the spatial pattern of manufacturing plants in developing countries, the role of services as a driver of urbanization and structural transformation is still not well understood. Using establishment level data from India, this paper helps narrow this gap by comparing and contrasting the spatial development of services with that in manufacturing. The study during the 2001-2010 period suggests that (i) services are more urbanized than manufacturing and are moving toward the urban and, by contrast, the organized manufacturing sector is moving away from urban cores to the rural periphery; (ii) manufacturing and services activities are highly correlated in spatial terms and exhibit a high degree of concentration in just a few states and industries; (iii) manufacturing in urban districts has a stronger tendency to locate closer to larger cities relative to services activity; (iv) infrastructure has a significant effect on manufacturing output, while human capital matters more for services activity; and lastly, (v) technology penetration, measured by the penetration of the Internet, is more strongly associated with services than manufacturing. Similar results hold when growth in activity is measured over the study period rather than levels. Manufacturing and services do not appear to crowd each other out of local areas. |
| Keywords: | E-Business,ICT Policy and Strategies,Knowledge Economy,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Housing&Human Habitats |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7741&r=ger |
| By: | Daouia, Abdelaati; Florens, Jean-Pierre; Simar, Léopold |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to construct a robust nonparametric estimator for the production frontier. The main tool is a concept of robust regression boundary defined as a special probability-weighted moment (PWM). We first study this problem under a regression model with one-sided errors where the regression function defines the achievable maximum output, for a given level of inputs-usage, and the regression error defines the inefficiency term. Then we consider a stochastic frontier model where the regression errors are assumed to be composite. It is more realistic to assume that the actually observed outputs are contaminated by a stochastic noise. The additive regression errors in the frontier model are then composed from this noise term and the one-sided ineficiency term. In contrast to the one-sided error model, where the direct use of empirical PWMs is fruitful, the composite error problem requires a substantial different treatment based on deconvolution techniques. To ensure the identifiability of the model we can only assume an independent Gaussian noise. In doing so, the estimation of the robust PWM frontiers, including the true regression boundary, necessitates the computation of a survival function estimator from an ill-posed equation. A Tikhonov regularized solution is constructed and nonparametric frontier estimation is performed. We unravel the asymptotic behavior of the resulting frontier estimators in both one-sided and composite error models. The procedure is very easy and fast to implement. Practical guidelines to effect the necessary computations are described via a simulated example. The usefulness of the approach is discussed through two concrete data sets from the sector of Delivery Services. |
| Keywords: | Deconvolution, Nonparametric estimation, Probability-weighted moment, Production function, Robustness, Stochastic frontier, Tikhonov regularization. |
| JEL: | C1 C13 C14 C49 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30543&r=ger |
| By: | Battaglini, Marco; Lai, Ernest; Lim, Wooyoung; Tao-yi Wang, Joseph |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate the informational theory of legislative committees first proposed by Gilligan and Krehbiel [1987, 1989]. Two committees provide policy-relevant information to a legislature under two different procedural rules. Under the open rule, the legislature is free to make any decision; under the closed rule, the legislature is constrained to choose between a committee's proposal and an exogenous status quo. Our experiment shows that even in the presence of conflicts of interests, legislative committees help improve the legislature's decision by providing useful information. We further obtain evidence in support of three theoretical predictions: the Outlier Principle, according to which more extreme preferences of the committees reduce the extent of information transmission; the Distributional Principle, according to which the open rule is more distributionally eefficient than the closed rule; and the Restrictive-rule Principle, according to which the closed rule better facilitates the informational role of legislative committees. We, however, obtain mixed evidence for the Heterogeneity Principle, according to which more information can be extracted in the presence of multiple committees with heterogeneous preferences. Our experimental findings provide overall support for the equilibrium predictions of Gilligan and Krehbiel [1989], some of which have been controversial in the literature. |
| Keywords: | information transmission; laboratory experiment; legislative committees |
| JEL: | C72 C82 D83 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11356&r=ger |
| By: | Gottschlich, Jörg |
| Abstract: | This cumulative dissertation examines applications of decision support in the field of social media and cloud computing. By the advent of Social Media, Big Data Analytics and Cloud Computing, new opportunities opening up in the field of decision support due to availability and ability to process new types of data sets. In this context, this dissertation introduces systems for the use of social media data for decisions and an approach for decision support in choosing a cloud computing provider. In this dissertation, the benefits of different Facebook profile data for use in product recommender systems will be analyzed. Two experiments are carried out, in which the recommendation quality is determined by user survey. In another part of this dissertation, structured stock recommendations of an online community are used to automatically derive and update a stock portfolio. So investment decisions in the stock market are supported by a regular recalculation of the community rating for individual stocks. An succeeding article on this topic develops a formalized model for the description of investment strategies to enable a portfolio management system that automatically follows a strategy parameterized by an investor. Finally, a cloud broker model is presented which offers price / performance-based decision support in identifying an appropriate IaaS provider on the market for public cloud services. In a fundamental part of the thesis an IT architecture design is proposed which allows the parallel use and evaluation of different solution approaches in an operative IT system. Statistical tests are used to identify the best performing approach(es) and prefer them quickly while in operation. Overall, this cumulative dissertation consists of an introduction and five published articles. |
| Keywords: | decision support, social media, cloud computing, recommender systems, investment decision support, analytics, cloud computing brokerage |
| Date: | 2016–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:81376&r=ger |
| By: | Taylor, Brian; Osman, Taner; Thomas, Trevor; Mondschein, Andrew |
| Abstract: | The San Francisco Bay Area regularly experiences some of the most severe traffic congestion in the U.S. This past year both Inrix and the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) ranked the Bay Area third only to Washington D.C. and Los Angeles in the time drivers spend stuck in traffic. The TTI estimated that traffic congestion cost the Bay Area economy a staggering $3.1 billion in 2014 (Lomax et al., 2015). Such estimates are based on the premise that moving more slowly than free-flow speeds wastes time and fuel, and that these time and fuel costs multiplied over millions of travelers in large urban areas add up to billions of dollars in congestion costs. But while few among us like driving in heavy traffic, do such measures really capture how congestion and the conditions that give rise to it affect regional economies? This study explores this question for the San Francisco Bay Area by examining how traffic congestion is (i) related to a broader and more conceptually powerful concept of access and (ii) how it affects key industries, which are critical to the performance of the region’s economy. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, San Francisco Bay Area, Traffic Congestion, Economic performance |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9qf2481r&r=ger |
| By: | Sener Salci (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston ON, Canada); Glenn P. Jenkins (Queen's University, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is a tool for assessing the welfare effects of changes in regulatory and investment interventions. While in many ways an effective approach, a significant drawback of CBA, however, is that it relies on estimates for variables that cannot be predicted with complete accuracy. As such, expected outcomes generated by CBA, such as financial and economic net present values (NPVs), incorporate a degree of risk and uncertainty. It is therefore critical that CBA is based on transparent assumptions about the nature of risk and uncertainty affecting key variables: CBA cannot contribute to rational decision-making unless the distribution of outcomes is clear, and the effect on forecast reliability understood. Real-world risk and uncertainty generate numerous ex-ante outcomes at the point of appraisal. Correctly assessing risk and uncertainty is therefore one of the most difficult challenges decision-makers face in applying the results of CBA. This report offers a systematic approach to the incorporation of risk and uncertainty in CBA. The primary objectives are to review the professional literature on risk and uncertainty; to provide a methodology for taking account of risk and uncertainty in CBA; and to suggest guidelines for the interpretation and application of CBA results in the decision-making process. The treatment of risk and uncertainty are clearly addressed in the CBA guidelines of most OECD countries, although approaches vary. The simplest procedures are based on sensitivity analysis, as applied to a deterministic base case. More comprehensive analysis is based on assumed probability distributions for the variables concerned. The CBA guidelines of multilateral financial institutions and a number of advanced economies (Australia, Canada, France, the UK, the US and the European Union) call for sensitivity analysis on a project-by-project basis, identifying specific long-term risks and uncertainties associated with the assumptions and values used in appraisal and evaluation. Still greater insight into the impact of risk and uncertainty on expected regulatory outcomes can be gained from a probabilistic modeling of variable distributions and their inter-dependencies. A Monte Carlo simulation is therefore recommended alongside sensitivity analysis, where data, time and budget permit. |
| Keywords: | risk analysis, cost-benefit analysis, energy, nonrenewable resources, environment, Canada |
| JEL: | D61 D81 N52 N72 O13 Q42 Q51 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:291&r=ger |
| By: | Andersson, Ola (Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Sweden); Ingebretsen Carlson, Jim (Department of Economics, Lund University); Wengström, Erik (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Several recent models of choice build on the idea that decision makers are more likely to choose an option if its attributes stand out compared to the attributes of the available alternatives. One example is the model of focusing by Köszegi and Szeidl (2013) where decision makers focus disproportionally on the attributes in which the available options differ more, implying that some attributes will be overweighted. We test this prediction in a controlled experiment. We find that subjects are more likely to make inconsistent choices when we manipulate the choice set by adding new options that are unchosen, but affect the maximal difference in attributes among the options. Hence, our results suggest that there exists a focusing effect. |
| Keywords: | Individual decision making; focus; attention; salience; decoy; experiments |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D12 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_015&r=ger |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper No 2016/08: The Halal Act is the first law in Indonesia, a Muslim majority nation, requiring Halal certification and labeling. Prior to the law, the Indonesian Council of Ulama (MUI) oversaw voluntary Halal certification. While Islamic organizations in Indonesia have praised the emergence of this law, local and foreign business entities have expressed their anxiety over whether such requirements would mean extra costs for them. The Halal Act involves several WTO issues, which could raise questions of Indonesia’s compliance with its WTO obligations. There have been a number of WTO cases where panel and the Appellate Body evaluated the concept of ‘public morals’. The question is how to balance this moral/religious objective and the means used to achieve such objective so that they are not more trade restrictive than necessary? It is also important to note that although Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world, the Indonesian constitution itself specifies that the country is not a Muslim nation and recognizes the existence of more than five religions in the country. This paper seeks to examine the WTO TBT consistency of the new Indonesian Halal Act and whether mandatory halal certification and labeling can be defended as an exception to WTO law. |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:989&r=ger |
| By: | Marius Brülhart; Jonathan Gruber; Matthias Krapf; Kurt Schmidheiny |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of wealth taxation on reported wealth. Our analysis is based on data for Switzerland, which has the highest rate of annual wealth taxation in the developed world. While the wealth tax base is defined at the federal level, tax rates vary considerably across locations and over time. We use aggregate data on wealth holdings by canton and individual-level data for the canton of Bern. Our estimated behavioral elasticities substantially exceed those of the taxable income literature. We also find that taxpayers bunch below the tax threshold, that observed responses are driven by changes in wealth holdings rather than mobility, and that financial wealth is somewhat more responsive than non-financial wealth. |
| JEL: | H21 H31 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22376&r=ger |
| By: | Regina Helena Rosa Sambuichi; Ernesto Pereira Galindo; Rodrigo Mendes Pereira; Michel Constantino; Matheus dos Santos Rabett |
| Abstract: | Este estudo realizou uma análise da diversidade da produção nos estabelecimentos da agricultura familiar brasileira utilizando a base de dados da Declaração de Aptidão ao Pronaf (DAP). A diversidade foi medida por meio do índice de diversidade de Simpson (Simpson index of diversity – SID), que assume o valor 0 no caso de monocultores e se aproxima de 1 com o aumento da diversidade da produção. Em 57% dos estabelecimentos, a produção foi relativamente diversificada, com um SID maior que 0,35, embora tenha sido observada uma tendência à especialização em anos recentes. A porcentagem de monocultores, na base utilizada, aumentou de 25% em 2012 para 33% em 2014. O SID foi usado como variável dependente numa regressão Tobit a fim de testar variáveis comumente utilizadas para explicar a diversidade na produção, tais como dummies regionais, tamanho da área, número de imóveis explorados, idade do agricultor, nível de educação, renda de benefícios sociais, valor bruto da produção (VBP) e dummy para acesso à assistência técnica. Todas estas variáveis apresentaram efeitos estatisticamente significantes sobre a decisão do agricultor quanto a diversificar ou não a produção. Os resultados sugerem um forte viés regional quanto à diversificação, bem como a importância de se prover assistência técnica e fomentar a geração e a difusão de tecnologias voltadas para sistemas diversificados de produção. This paper analyzes the production diversity among Brazilian agricultural family farms, using the DAP (declaration of Pronaf entitlement). The diversity is measured with a Simpson index, that goes from zero, for monocultures, to one. Production is considerably diversified in these types of farms. 57% of them have a diversification index above 0,35, although it has been noticed an increase in specialization in recent years. The share of monoculture farms rose from 25% in 2012 to 33% in 2014. The diversification index is set as the dependent variable on a Tobit regression with variables that are commonly used to explain the decision to diversify, such as regional dummies, farm size, number of farms, farmer´s age, income from social benefits, education, gross production, or a dummy for access to technical assistance. All of these variables have significant effects on production diversity. The results suggest a strong regional bias in terms of diversification, as well as the importance of technical assistance and the availability of technologies in order to spur diversification among family farmers. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2202&r=ger |
| By: | Graw, Valerie; Oldenburg, Carsten; Dubovyk, Olena |
| Abstract: | Bush encroachment (BE) describes a global problem severely affecting savanna ecosystems in Africa. Invasive species and woody vegetation spread out in areas where they are not naturally occurring and suppress endemic vegetation, mainly grasses. Livestock is directly affected by decreasing grasslands and inedible invasive species which are a result of the process of BE. For many small scale farmers in developing countries livestock represents a type of insurance particular in times of crop failure and droughts. Among that, BE is also becoming an increasing problem for crop production. Studies on the mapping of BE have so far only focused on smaller regions using high-resolution data and aerial photography. But they rarely provide information that goes beyond the local or national level. In our project, we aimed at a continental-wide assessment of BE. For this, we developed a process chain using a multi-scale approach to detect woody vegetation for the African continent. The resulted map was calibrated with field data provided by field surveys and experts in Southern and Eastern Africa. Supervised classification linked field data of woody vegetation, known as BE, to the respective pixel of multi-scale remote sensing data. The regression technique was based on random forests, a machine learning classification and regression approach programmed in R. Hotpots of woody vegetation were further overlaid with significant increasing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends which can refer to BE. Secondly, the probability of BE occurrence based on possible identified causes such as fire occurrence, mean annual precipitation rates, soil moisture, cattle density and CO2 emissions was analyzed. By this, possible areas for BE occurrence based on their pre-conditions and risk factors were identified. This approach includes multiple datasets derived from earth observation data to detect BE – a severe and ongoing global problem – at the continental level. Within the study´s duration of seven months, a method to upscale field data to a larger level could be developed. Nevertheless, improvement is needed to provide a reliable continental map on BE. Especially the integration of more field data will be needed which is currently under consideration. The identification of woody vegetation and the probability of its occurrence can help to prevent further ecosystem degradation. Moreover, sustainable land management strategies in these areas can be focused to support pastoralists and their livelihoods in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | bush encroachment, remote sensing, multi-scale analysis, probability map, random forests, regression trees, Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:241266&r=ger |