|
on German Papers |
| By: | Oesten, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | Peter Deegen hat 2013 eine originelle, Neues bietende und gängigen Auffassungen der Forstökonomik widersprechende Arbeit zu Theorien der forstlichen Nachhaltigkeit vorgelegt. Die Arbeit ist der theoretischen Forstökonomik zuzuordnen. Es geht dem Autor darum, verschiedene ökonomische Konzepte forstlicher Nachhaltigkeit mittels der Hayek'schen Theorie der Formen menschlicher Ordnung zu systematisieren und so theoretischer Erklärung zugänglich zu machen. Im vorliegenden Arbeitspapier wird kritisch hinterfragt, ob das Neue und Originelle in der Arbeit auch in der Sache haltbar ist. Hinterfragt werden Deegens Definition von Nachhaltigkeit, seine forstgeschichtlichen Deutungen zu den Arbeiten von Cotta, Preßler und Judeich, sein methodisches Vorgehen (eine Kombination von typologischer Methode und biographischer Methode der Geschichtswissenschaften) sowie seine auf die marktwirtschaftliche Ordnung verkürzte Darstellung der Ordnungstheorie von Hayek. Als Alternative zur an Hayek orientierten typologischen Methode wird ein ideengeschichtliches Vorgehen vorgeschlagen und am Beispiel der Auseinandersetzungen von Boden- und Waldreinertragslehre im 19. Jahrhundert illustriert. Abschließend wird hinterfragt, warum Deegens Modell der "Forstwirtschaft der Preise" der Idee der Nachhaltigkeit nicht genügt und begründet, warum Forstwirtschaft in einer Marktwirtschaft einen sozial und ökologisch verpflichtenden Ordnungsrahmen braucht, damit Nutzung und Schutz der Wälder nachhaltig erfolgen. |
| Keywords: | Nachhaltigkeit |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifewps:602015&r=all |
| By: | Tivig, Thusnelda; Kasch, Sabrina |
| Abstract: | Die außerhäusliche Mobilität ist ein Indikator der sozialen Teilhabe. Aus früheren Auswer-tungen der Zeitbudgeterhebung des Statistischen Bundesamtes ist bekannt, dass der Umfang der außer Haus verbrachten Zeit mit steigendem Alter sinkt und dass sich ältere Männer durchschnittlich länger außerhalb der Wohnung aufhalten als ältere Frauen. Unsere Studie detailliert die Betrachtung Älterer durch Berücksichtigung von fünf statt bislang drei Altersgruppen und untersucht auf dieser Basis das außerhäusliche Aktivitätsmuster älterer Menschen im Vergleich der Erhebungen 1991/92 und 2001/02 und der Geschlechter. Dadurch wird eine starke Tendenz der Ausdifferenzierung Älterer bei gleichzeitiger Angleichungstendenz im Aktivitätsmuster von älteren Frauen und Männern sichtbar. Die außer Haus verbrachte Zeit verringert sich nach dem 64. Lebensjahr; ein weiterer, starker Abfall ist nach dem 75. Lebensjahr zu beobachten. Auf der Basis des hergeleiteten alterstypischen Aktivitätsmusters wird ein Referenzwertkonzept für die Bewertung der Effektivität von technischen Assistenzsystemen (AS) für den Erhalt sozialer Teilhabe im Alter erstellt. Fernziel ist, Kranken- und Pflegekassen ein darauf basierendes Instrument bereitzustellen, das Entscheidungen über die Finanzierung von AS unterstützt. |
| Keywords: | Zeitverwendung im Alter,außerhäusliche Mobilität,soziale Teilhabe,technische Assistenzsysteme |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:roswps:141&r=all |
| By: | Ibarrarán, Pablo; Kluve, Jochen; Ripani, Laura; Shady, David Rosas |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial on the long-term impacts of a youth training program. The empirical analysis estimates labor market impacts six years after the training - including long-term labor market trajectories of young people - and, to the best of our knowledge, is the first experimental long-term evaluation of a youth training program outside the US. We are able to track a representative sample of more than 3,200 youths at the six-year follow-up. Our empirical findings document significant impacts on the formality of employment, particularly for men, and impacts for both men and women in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic. The long-term analysis shows that these impacts are sustained and growing over time. There are no impacts on average employment, which is consistent with the low unemployment in countries with high informality and no unemployment insurance. Looking at the local labor market context, the analysis suggests that skills training programs work particularly well in more dynamic local contexts, where there is actual demand for the skills provided. |
| Abstract: | Dieses Papier untersucht die langfristigen Arbeitsmarkteffekte einer Bildungsmaßnahme für benachteiligte Jugendliche und junge Erwachsene in der Dominikanischen Republik. Die empirische Analyse basiert auf einer randomisierten Zuordnung von teilnahmeberechtigten Personen in eine Teilnahme- und Kontrollgruppe, und ist unseres Wissens nach die erste experimentelle Langzeitstudie einer solchen Maßnahme außerhalb der USA. Die Stichprobe enthält Daten zu mehr als 3200 Personen sechs Jahre nach der Zuweisung in Teilnahme- und Kontrollgruppe. Die Ergebnisse zeigen signifikant positive Effekte auf formale Beschäftigung, insbesondere für Männer, sowie auf Arbeitseinkommen für Frauen. Die positiven Wirkungen zeigen sich insbesondere für Personen in der Hauptstadt Santo Domingo, dem dynamischsten lokalen Arbeitsmarkt des Landes, in dem reale Nachfrage für die in der Maßnahme erworbenen Fähigkeiten besteht. |
| Keywords: | long-term,impact evaluation,Randomized Controlled Trial,Dominican Republic,youth training,labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J24 J64 O15 O17 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:562&r=all |
| By: | Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Nachdem die griechische Regierung sehr weitgehenden Reformen zugestimmt hat, scheint es beim dritten Hilfspaket für Griechenland um die Quadratur des Kreises zu gehen. Der IWF soll im Boot gehalten werden, aber eine von ihm eingeforderte Schuldenentlastung für Griechenland darf die europäischen Steuerzahler möglichst nicht belasten und muss so anreizkompatibel gestaltet werden, dass Griechenland nicht vom Reformkurs abweicht und nicht in fiskalischen Schlendrian verfällt. Die hier vorgenommene Schuldentragfähigkeitsanalyse des IW Köln, die bis 2030 zu vergleichbaren Ergebnissen wie die der europäischen Institutionen kommt, zeigt: Durch eine weitgehende Übernahme der griechischen Staatsschulden durch den ESM lässt sich der Schuldendienst so gestalten, dass die genannten Anforderungen erfüllt werden können. Eine Schuldenstreckung verringert Griechenlands laufende Finanzierungsbelastung, ohne die europäischen Steuerzahler zu belasten. [...] |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:252015&r=all |
| By: | Henger, Ralph; Schier, Michael; Voigtländer, Michael |
| Abstract: | Der deutsche Wohnungsmarkt entwickelt sich sehr unterschiedlich. Während die Nachfrage in einigen Städten aufgrund von Zuwanderung aus dem In- und Ausland stark steigt, schrumpfen andere Regionen zum Teil deutlich. Auf Basis der demografischen Entwicklung und des notwendigen Ersatzbedarfs, der sich aus dem natürlichen Abgang im Wohnungsmarkt ergibt, wurde in dieser Studie der Baubedarf für Deutschland und die einzelnen Kreise ermittelt. Insgesamt müssen in Deutschland im Zeitraum 2015 bis 2020 jährlich etwa 266.000 Wohnungen gebaut werden, die aktuelle Bautätigkeit liegt mit etwa 245.000 Wohnungen noch darunter. Im langfristigen Mittel bis 2030 werden jährlich 237.000 Wohnungen benötigt. Entscheidender ist jedoch, dass die Verteilung der Bautätigkeit vielerorts nicht den Bedarfen entspricht. Während in den Großstädten wie Berlin, Hamburg und München die Bautätigkeit deutlich unter den Bedarfen liegt, wird in einigen Kreisen schon jetzt zu viel gebaut. Diese Diskrepanz zwischen Bautätigkeit und Baubedarf erfordert eine größere wirtschaftspolitische Beachtung. Während in den Großstädten mehr Bauflächen bereitgestellt und bestehende Restriktionen überdacht werden müssen, gilt es in den schrumpfenden Kreisen die Wohnungsnachfrage nach innen zu lenken und eine Zersiedelung durch neue Baugebiete zu vermeiden. Hilfreich könnte darüber hinaus eine bessere Vernetzung der Regionen sein, um eine Separierung von Wohn- und Arbeitsstandort leichter zu ermöglichen. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:242015&r=all |
| By: | Leisering, Benedikt; Krüger-Charlé, Michael; Becker, David |
| Abstract: | Die montanindustrielle Flächennutzung hat die Raum- und Siedlungsstruktur der Metropole Ruhr nachhaltig geprägt und ihre polyzentrische Ausformung befördert. Gegenwärtig gibt es keine systematische Erhebung grundlegender Daten zu Montanflächen und auch keine Kenntnis darüber, welche Flächen in ihrer Gesamtheit überhaupt montanindustriell genutzt wurden. Die vertiefende Kenntnis der Entwicklung und des Zustandes der ehemaligen und (noch) aktuell montanindustriell genutzten Flächen ist ein wichtiger Baustein zur Neuakzentuierung städtischer und regionaler Entwicklungsstrategien in der Metropole Ruhr. Auf dieser Grundlage können Bewertungen und Entscheidungen über Nachnutzungskonzeptionen im Kontext der Flächenentwicklung und den damit einhergehenden sozialen, ökonomischen und siedlungsstrukturellen Transformationsprozessen und Pfadabhängigkeiten erfolgen. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iatfor:82015&r=all |
| By: | Busch, Berthold; Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | In der Folge der Euro-Schuldenkrise sind vielfältige Reformen im institutionellen Regelwerk der Europäischen Währungsunion erfolgt. Doch nicht zuletzt der Fall Griechenland hat deutlich gemacht, dass im reformierten EWU-Regelwerk noch eine wesentliche Lücke klafft. Diese Studie spricht sich daher, nach eingehender Abwägung von Vor- und Nachteilen, für die Schaffung eines Staatsinsolvenzverfahrens für Euro-länder aus. Eine Schuldenrestrukturierung darf aber nur die Ultima Ratio sein. Um die No-Bailout-Klausel des EU-Vertrags und die Disziplinierungsfunktion der Fi-nanzmärkte zu stärken, muss ein Staatsinsolvenzverfahren glaubwürdig durchgeführt werden können. Dabei sind Ansteckungseffekte auf andere Euroländer zu begrenzen und vor allem Banken im Euroraum weniger verletzbar gegenüber Staatsbankrotten zu machen. Dazu sollten Anforderungen an die Eigenkapitalbasis der Banken weiter erhöht und die Bevorzugung von Staatsanleihen in der Bankenregulierung abgeschafft werden. Zudem muss ein Staatsinsolvenzverfahren möglichst effektiv, schnell, fair und rechtssicher sein, darf aber keine Einladung zu einer zu leichten Entschuldungsmöglichkeit sein. Um diese Anforderungen möglichst gut zu erreichen, unterbreiten die Autoren (unter Rückgriff, Kombination und Abwandlung bestehender Vorschläge) einen konkreten Vorschlag für ein Staatsinsolvenzverfahren. [...] |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:232015&r=all |
| By: | Hamelmann, Lisa; Haucap, Justus; Wey, Christian |
| Abstract: | Auf Plattformmärkten werden vielfach Meistbegünstigungsklauseln eingesetzt, durch welche der Anbieter verpflichtet wird, seine Produkte auf der jeweiligen Plattform zu den günstigsten Konditionen zu offerieren. Kartellrechtlich sind diese Klauseln umstritten. Im Jahr 2013 hat das Bundeskartellamt (BKartA) in dem HRS-Beschluss, welcher jüngst durch das OLG Düsseldorf bestätigt wurde, eine solche Klausel als wettbewerbsbeschränkende Vertikalvereinbarung sowie als Missbrauch einer marktbeherrschenden Stellung eingestuft. Angelehnt an diesen Beschluss beleuchtet der folgende Beitrag die wettbewerbsökonomischen Auswirkungen sowie die wettbewerbsrechtliche Zulässigkeit dieser Klauseln. Dabei wird durch die Verknüpfung juristischer und ökonomischer Betrachtungen eine adäquate Marktabgrenzung in einem - potenziell - zweiseitigen Markt sowie eine deskriptive Wirkungsanalyse vorgenommen und resümiert. |
| Abstract: | Online platforms have increasingly implemented so-called 'Across-Platform Parity Agreements', restraining the seller to offer his goods to any other retailer / intermediary at more favorable terms and conditions. These clauses raise antitrust concerns; i. a., the German Federal Cartel Office (recently confirmed by the Düsseldorf Court of Appeal) declared the implementation by the online hotel-booking portal HRS as anticompetitive. The justification given was that it would constitute an effected restriction of competition as well as an abuse of a dominant position. While incorporating the (often neglected) economic theory into legal practice, this case study examines the admissibility under competition law and discusses the most controversial issues. In particular, the market definition of the - potentially - two-sided market based on the demand-side oriented market concept is scrutinized. In addition, a descriptive efficiency analysis is performed, considering possible alternatives to attain the positive effects. By applying the 'more-economic approach', both of these factors, which were also decisive for the injunctive relief, are differently assessed to the decision. Consequently, from a competition policy perspective, this law and economics analysis concludes that the prohibition of the implementation of APPA is not justified. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diceop:72&r=all |
| By: | Schmidt, Holger J.; Gelbling, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Das Thema Nachhaltigkeit hat in den letzten Jahren an Präsenz gewonnen und ist heutzutage in aller Munde. Auch in der Wirtschaft wird das Thema leidenschaftlich diskutiert, denn allgemein herrscht die Meinung, dass Nachhaltigkeit zu Wettbewerbsvorteilen führen kann. In der Marketingkommunikation z. B. wird davon ausgegangen, eine Positionierung als nachhaltiges Unternehmen wirke image-fördernd. Doch es scheint, dass Werbung mit Bezug zur Nachhaltigkeit bei den Verbrauchern nicht nur positiv ankommt. Insbesondere wird kritisiert, dass Nachhaltigkeit von Unternehmen als verkaufsförderndes Etikett missbraucht wird. Vorwürfe, Werbung mit Bezug zum Thema Nachhaltigkeit sei häufig "green- oder bluewashing", stehen vielfach im Raum. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es einerseits interessant zu wissen, wie Unternehmen bisher ihre nachhaltigen Aktivitäten kommunizieren. Dieser Frage widmet sich die erste in diesem Beitrag dargestellte Studie. Dabei werden Printanzeigen von Lebensmittelmarken und des Lebensmitteleinzelhandels inhaltsanalytisch ausgewertet. Andererseits ist es von zentralem Interesse, Erfolgsfaktoren der Marketingkommunikation im Kontext von Nachhaltigkeit zu identifizieren. Dieser Aufgabe stellt sich die ebenfalls hier diskutierte zweite Studie, die anhand von Experteninterviews Anforderungen an die Nachhaltigkeitskommunikation von morgen offenlegt. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hkowis:172015&r=all |
| By: | Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Hinte, Holger (IZA); Spermann, Alexander (IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA and University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Die digitale Revolution, insbesondere das mobile Internet, verändert die Arbeitswelt radikal. Das stellt die Gewerkschaften vor neue Herausforderungen. Dennoch können sie erfolgreich bleiben und mehr Mitglieder gewinnen, wenn sie sich in mehreren ihrer zentralen Gestaltungsfelder besser positionieren und etwa die Entwicklung neuer Ansätze in der Aus- und Weiterbildung vorantreiben oder einen neuen, auf gegenseitigem Vertrauen aufbauenden Kompromiss zu Arbeits- und Ruhezeiten erarbeiten. Arbeitsorte jenseits des betrieblichen Arbeitsplatzes sind gelebte Realität. Auch hier lassen sich – inspiriert von Betriebsvereinbarungen zum Vertrauensarbeitsort – tarifvertragliche Lösungen entwickeln. Des Weiteren sollten neue Arbeitsformen wie das über Online-Portale organisierte Crowdworking nicht per se abgelehnt, sondern tarifpolitisch gestaltet werden. Moderne Arbeitsprozesse können von den Gewerkschaften aktiv begleitet werden, ohne dass hart erkämpfte Errungenschaften im Hinblick auf Arbeitsstandards aufgegeben werden müssen. Modelle der betrieblichen Gewinn- und Kapitalbeteiligung können weiterentwickelt werden, um Mitarbeitern zukünftig mehr Anteile am Produktivvermögen zu ermöglichen. Gewerkschaften, die ihre Rolle in der digitalisierten Arbeitswelt konstruktiv annehmen und sich auf die hier benannten sechs Gestaltungsfelder konzentrieren, sind in einer unübersichtlicher werdenden Arbeitswelt weiter wichtig. |
| Keywords: | Gewerkschaften, Digitalisierung, technischer Fortschritt, Tarifpolitik, Sozialpartnerschaft |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J51 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izasps:sp82&r=all |
| By: | Shinichi Nishiyama |
| Abstract: | The current U.S. Social Security program redistributes resources from high-wage workers to low-wage workers through its progressive benefit schedule and from two-earner couples and singles to one-earner couples through its spousal and survivors benefits. This paper extends a standard general-equilibrium overlapping-generations model with uninsurable wage shocks to analyze the effect of the spousal and survivors benefits on the labor supply of married households and the overall economy. The heterogeneousagent model calibrated to the current U.S. economy predicts that, in the long run, removing spousal and survivors benefits would increase the female labor participation rate by 1.4%, the total working hours of women by 1.6–1.7%, and the total output of the economy by 0.5–0.6%. Under the balanced-budget assumption, a phased-in cohort-by-cohort removal of these benefits would make all age cohorts, on average, better off, although the policy change would make a majority of young married households worse off in the short run. |
| Keywords: | dynamic general equilibrium, heterogeneous agents, overlapping generations, female labor supply |
| JEL: | D91 E62 H55 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:89793646&r=all |
| By: | Martin, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Dieser in Teilen essayistisch gehaltene Aufsatz greift die aktuell geführte Diskussion über die Veränderung der betrieblichen Organisation von Erwerbsarbeit in Zeiten eines "flexiblen Kapitalismus" (Sennett 1998) auf und wirft einen Blick auf zentrale Merkmale, Ursachen und Konsequenzen dieser Entwicklung. Vor dem Hintergrund eines spätestens seit den 1960er Jahren auszumachenden soziostrukturellen und soziokulturellen Gesellschaftswandels einerseits, sowie verschärften ökonomischen Wettbewerbsbedingungen andererseits, wird in diesem Beitrag die veränderte Erzeugung organisationaler Bindung und Kontrolle einer kritischen Analyse unterzogen. Gegenstand und Ausgangspunkt der Überlegungen bildet der durch neoliberale Transformationsbemühungen semantisch als "Befreiungsprojekt" (Dörre 2012, S. 63) aufgeladene Kontroll- und Bindungsmechanismus der Selbstverwirklichung. Aus der nunmehr gegebenen Möglichkeit, neue Arbeits- und Organisationskonzepte als freiwillige Gabe und Zugewinn individueller Handlungsautonomie gegenüber den Beschäftigten darstellen zu können, resultiert eine in der Reziprozität des sozialen Handelns angelegte Verpflichtung zum Arbeiten in eben diesen neuen Strukturen. Betriebliche Bindung und Kontrolle werden somit über die Idee der Reziprozität als subversiv wirkender Integrationsmodus ermöglicht. Die Überlegungen münden in der These, dass die mittels einer überdehnten instrumentalisierten Subjektivierung von Arbeit erzeugte Bindung und Kontrolle die unternehmerische Innovations- und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit langfristig zu vermindern droht. Mit der hier in Anschlag gebrachten Argumentation wird also der dysfunktionale Charakter einer überdehnten "Instrumentalisierung von Subjektivität" (Kocyba 2000) angesprochen. Problematisch scheint in diesem Zusammenhang vor allem die ökonomische Fundierung zu sein, die in letzter Konsequenz zur Homogenisierung sowie Individualisierung und Entsolidarisierung des betrieblichen Handelns führt. Insofern droht der Kontroll- und Bindungsmechanismus nicht nur wirkungslos zu werden, sondern entfaltet gleichsam auch einen negativen Einfluss auf die unternehmerische Innovations- und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Der Schwerpunkt des vorliegenden Beitrags liegt auf der Analyse der diese Entwicklung konstituierenden Faktoren und Mechanismen. Insofern wird mit den Ausführungen der Grundstein gelegt, um den Gegenstand der betrieblichen "Instrumentalisierung von Subjektivität" näher bestimmen und verstehen zu können, während hingegen die Darstellung der Auswirkungen dieser Entwicklung noch weitere Ausarbeitung bedarf und hier nur schemenhaft skizziert wird. |
| Keywords: | Gesellschaftlicher Wandel,Bindung,Kontrolle,Subjektivierung von Arbeit,betriebliches Sozialgefüge,Innovationsfähigkeit |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dwjzhe:10&r=all |
| By: | Judith Kaschowitz |
| Abstract: | Due to the growing number of people in need of care and the importance of informal caregiving, achieving a work-care balance should be of certain relevance for couples. This work analyses, based on data of the German Socio-Economic Panel, if there are “spill-over” effects from care to work within couples. For the years 2001-2011, it is examined if informal care by women influences the employment of their spouses. Caring is considered as part of the inner family bargaining processes. Previous research shows that caring women reduce their working hours. Taking that into account and considering theoretical arguments of the gender sociology and the new home economics, it is assumed that informal care of women leads to an increase in the employment of their husbands. Descriptive results show that partners of caring women have a higher working time than their counterparts. The regression results show that there is a positive, significant link between informal care done by women and the labor supply of their spouses. Restricting the sample to working men only, the association remains positive but gets insignificant. A possible explanation of this is that the informal care done by women depends on the work performance of their spouses. |
| Keywords: | Informelle Pflege, Erwerbsarbeit, Paare, Arbeitsteilung, Längsschnittanalyse |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp780&r=all |
| By: | Mitchell, Karlyn; Pearce, Douglas |
| Abstract: | We provide direct evidence on the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) by examining how frequently individual professional forecasters revise their forecasts. We draw interest rate and unemployment rate forecasts from the monthly Wall Street Journal surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013. Consistent with the sticky information model we find that forecasters frequently leave their forecasts unrevised but find evidence that revision frequency increases following larger changes in the information set. We also find revision frequencies became more sensitive to new information after the 2008 financial crisis but only weak evidence that frequent revisers forecast more accurately. |
| Keywords: | Expectations, Sticky Information, Survey Forecasts |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66172&r=all |
| By: | David (David Patrick) Madden; Michael Savage |
| Abstract: | Social marginal welfare weights play an important role in areas of applied public policy analysis such as tax reform. These weights reflect the values of the social planner, or equivalently the underlying social welfare function. A number of recent papers have questioned the "default" Utilitarian-based approach used to derive these weights, and have suggested potential alternatives. However, there are few examples applying these alternative weighting schemes to traditional, nationally representative, datasets, and in particular, few comparisons of how these alternative weighting schemes would affect the distribution of the welfare effects of a specific tax reform in comparison to the Utilitarian-based approach. This paper aims to fill that gap. Using the nationally representative 2009/10 Irish Household Budget Survey, we apply a range of alternatives to Utilitarianism in determining the distribution of social marginal welfare weights, and compare these distributions to that arising from the traditional Utilitarian approach. The alternative weighting schemes we analyse are based upon: the principles of Equal Sacrifice, poverty alleviation, government self-interest and the redistribution of "luck" income. The distribution of welfare weights arising from these approaches are found to differ appreciably from the distribution based upon Utilitarian weights. A simple indirect tax reform model is estimated and applied to the different distributions of welfare weights to investigate the sensitivity of tax reform recommendations to these distributions. Given the importance of social marginal welfare weights in areas of public policy analysis such as optimal labour and commodity tax design, and tax reform evaluation, we believe this detailed examination of the alternatives to Utilitarianism, and their application to a household budget survey dataset, is an important addition to the literature. |
| Keywords: | Generalised welfare weight; Tax reform; Inequality |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201502&r=all |
| By: | Rastrigina, Olga; Leventi, Chrysa; Sutherland, Holly |
| Abstract: | The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is crucial for monitoring of the social situation and of the effectiveness of tax and benefit policies. However, partly due to the complexity of EU-SILC data collection, estimates of the number of people at risk of poverty are published with a significant delay. This paper extends and updates previous work on estimating (‘nowcasting’) indicators of poverty risk using the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD. The model’s routines are enhanced with additional adjustments to the EU-SILC based input data in order to capture changes in the employment characteristics of the population since the data were collected. The nowcasting method is applied to seventeen EU Member States. AROP rates are estimated up to 2014 for ten countries and 2013 for the remaining seven countries. The performance of the method is assessed by comparing the predictions with actual EU-SILC indicators for the years for which the latter are available. |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em12-15&r=all |
| By: | Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa; Wagner,Mathis Christoph |
| Abstract: | Civil war in Syria has resulted in more than four million refugees fleeing the country, of which 1.8 million have found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee-hosting country worldwide. This paper combines newly available data on the 2014 distribution of Syrian refugees across subregions of Turkey with the Turkish Labour Force Survey, to assess the impact on Turkish labor market conditions. Using a novel instrument, the analysis finds that the refugees, who overwhelmingly do not have work permits, result in the large-scale displacement of informal, low-educated, female Turkish workers, especially in agriculture. While there is net displacement, the inflow of refugees also creates higher-wage formal jobs, allowing for occupational upgrading of Turkish workers. Average Turkish wages have increased primarily as the composition of the employed has changed because of the inflow of refugees. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Education For All,Population Policies,Street Children,Labor Policies |
| Date: | 2015–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7402&r=all |
| By: | Zapf, Ines (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "This study brings together results of the establishment and the individual level to get a better understanding of the use of working-time accounts in Germany. Using data from the Establishment Panel we first show that industrial relations factors, employment-contract characteristics and individual characteristics determine working-time accounts' use in establishments. Second, we provide the first analysis concerning the determinants of working-time accounts' use among employees and the employees' access to working-time accounts in establishments using working-time accounts. Using data from the German Socio Economic Panel we show that qualified employees more often have access to working-time accounts. Using linked-employer-employee data we show that in establishments using working-time accounts female employees, part-time employees and employees with fixed-term contracts are not disadvantaged regarding the access to working-time accounts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Arbeitszeitkonto, IAB-Betriebspanel, Arbeitszeitflexibilität, Beschäftigungsform, geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren, Personalpolitik, qualifikationsspezifische Faktoren, Teilzeitarbeitnehmer, Betriebsgröße, Wirtschaftszweige |
| JEL: | J51 J81 |
| Date: | 2015–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201523&r=all |
| By: | Seymen, Ahmet Ferda |
| Abstract: | Qualitative research is concerned with qualitative phenomenon, i.e., phenomena relating to or involving quality or kind. For instance, when we are interested in investigating the reasons for human behavior (i.e., why people think or do certain things), we quite often talk of ‘Motivation Research’, an important type of qualitative research. This type of research aims at discovering the underlying motives and desires, using in depth interviews for the purpose. Other techniques of such research are word association tests, sentence completion tests, story completion tests and similar other projective techniques. Attitude or opinion research i.e., research designed to find out how people feel or what they think about a particular subject or institution is also qualitative research. Qualitative research is especially important in the behavioral sciences where the aim is to discover the underlying motives of human behavior. Through such research we can analyze the various factors which motivate people to behave in a particular manner or which make people like or dislike a particular thing. In this study; main issues identified by employees were: That the functions of the human resources department was none existent within the company. Recruitment, Reward and Reprimand, Career Development, Performance Evaluation System, Lack of proper orientation, on the job trainings and self-improvement courses needed to be developed and implemented in order to raise the declined motivation of employees and the deteriorating relations between the two sides. |
| Keywords: | Employee Opinion, Business Hotel, Hotel Employee |
| JEL: | J01 J08 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65909&r=all |
| By: | Sovachana, Pou; Beban, Alice |
| Abstract: | The concept of human security is based on the fundamental principles of ‘freedom from fear’ and ‘freedom from want’ through the 1994 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).1 It argues for a shift from a state-centric view of security to one that focuses on the security of every individual. Human Security is about protection and empowerment of the individual. It tackles general threats to human existence and finds ways to overcome these threats, recognizing that the state itself can at times be a threat to its own people. This report aims to understand how the internationally minted notions of human security and insecurity are perceived and interpreted by Cambodian people, and what suggestions people may offer for mitigating threats to human security. We conducted interviews and focus groups with people in diverse sectors including government, academics, civil society, rural and urban communities, media, students, and Buddhist monks. Our research suggests that when we replace the discourse of security in Cambodia with the concept of human security, it opens new conversations toward understanding and responsiveness to human rights and human development.2 We argue that the connected, multi-dimensional insecurities in Cambodia can be revealed through taking a broad approach to human security that recognizes ‘freedom from fear’, ‘freedom from want’, and ‘freedom to live in dignity’ as inter-related in ways that may be contradictory. Currently much of the debate about the referent of security is too focused on either protection or empowerment; the voices of our research participants lead us to suggest that security comes from communication and dialogue between government and communities, and the importance of ‘cooperative leadership’. |
| Date: | 2015–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:95&r=all |
| By: | Jyh-bang Jou; Tan Lee |
| Abstract: | Stimulating the private sector to invest in government-led research is a ticklish business. Jyh-Bang Jou and Tan (Charlene) Lee investigate. |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380000&r=all |
| By: | Joachim Jarreau (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of naturalization on the labor market outcomes of foreign-born workers in France. Using a large panel dataset of workers employed in France over 1993-2001, I find that naturalization is associated with a sharp increase in job mobility: immigrants tend to change occupations and employers, in the same year as they naturalize. Turning to wages, I find evidence that naturalization commands a wage premium, which is associated with employment mobility. For workers initially in low-skill occupations, the wage premium is conditional on occupational mobility. For those in middle- or high-skilled occupations, there is also evidence of a wage premium, mostly for foreign women; this premium is associated with moves to a different firm. These results suggest that foreign citizenship constrains workers mobility, and are consistent with the hypothesis of a mismatch of foreign workers to their jobs. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01117449&r=all |
| By: | Lane, Philip R. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the cyclical behaviour of country-level macro-financial variables under EMU. Monetary union strengthened the covariation pattern between the output cycle and the financial cycle, while macro-financial policies at national and area-wide levels were insufficiently counter-cyclical during the 2003-2007 boom period. We critically examine the policy reform agenda required to improve macro-financial stability. |
| Keywords: | EMU; financial stability; macroprudential |
| JEL: | E50 F30 F32 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10776&r=all |
| By: | Meyer, Wolgang |
| Abstract: | Skill shortages are an important issue of the current economic policy debate in Germany. However, it is not always clear whether the term applies to an actual or future problem. This paper investigates the development of skill shortages in Lower Saxony in the period 2008 - 2014 and takes a closer look at the recruitment problems of the firms. Are these problems due to a prolonged scarcity or to temporary circumstances which can be solved by an appropriate personnel management? Using the German Establishment Panel of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) the empirical analysis reveals that the demand of skilled personnel is cyclical without a clear upward trend. Skill shortages are measured by subjective assessments of the management, quantitative indicators of employment compromises and unfilled qualified vacancies. Especially the latter show, that the recruitment problems are mostly a short-term phenomenon and less often observed over a longer period. To abate skill shortages the firms frequently use vocational training and further education. |
| Keywords: | skill shortages, need for skilled personnel, recruiting strategies, IAB-Establishment Panel, Lower Saxony |
| JEL: | D21 D22 J23 J63 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-560&r=all |
| By: | Hartley, Peter R. (Rice University); Medlock, Kenneth B., III (Rice Univesrity); Rosthal, Jennifer (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | We examine determinants of the natural gas share in power generation for the NERC regions in the US. Our results indicate that plant and grid-level fuel-switching, technology in generation, installed capacity and weather all affect the natural gas share of energy input into power generation. Furthermore, we argue that fuel-switching is likely an important demand-side factor in establishing a long run relationship between the prices of petroleum products and natural gas. We estimate two specifications--a translog specification for expenditure share and a double logarithmic transformation of gas-fired capacity utilization--because our analysis calls into question the validity of the translog specification for analyzing fuel shares in the power generation sector. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-026&r=all |
| By: | Jens Arnold; Carlos Farinha Rodrigues |
| Abstract: | Portugal has one of the most unequal income distributions in Europe and poverty levels are high. The economic crisis has halted a long-term gradual decline in both inequality and poverty and the number of poor households is rising, with children and youths being particularly affected. Unemployment is one of the principal reasons why household incomes declined. The tax and benefit system alleviates both inequality and poverty significantly. The tax system is markedly progressive, and recent tax reforms have likely increased this progressivity. Transfer payments, especially non-pension benefits, are reducing inequality and poverty in a fairly efficient way. Nonetheless, a number of adjustments could strengthen the equalising role of the benefit system, which is generally biased towards benefits for elderly people, while families with children should receive more support. The education system should provide more support to students at risk of falling behind to reduce grade-repetition and drop-out rates, while further increasing class sizes would be a reasonable way to generate savings without affecting learning progress much. Scaling up vocational courses and adult education, including in the context of active labour market policies, could improve the capacity of many households to generate income and lead to a more equitable income distribution.<P>Réduire les inégalités et la pauvreté au Portugal<BR>Le Portugal est l’un des pays d’Europe où la distribution des revenus est la plus inégalitaire, et les niveaux de pauvreté y sont élevés. La crise économique a mis fin à une baisse progressive de longue durée à la fois des inégalités et de la pauvreté, et le nombre de ménages pauvres s’accroît, les enfants et les jeunes étant particulièrement touchés. Le chômage est l’une des principales raisons du recul des revenus des ménages. Le système de prélèvements et de transferts contribue à soulager fortement les inégalités et la pauvreté. Le système fiscal est fortement progressif, et il est probable que les réformes récentes l’ont rendu encore plus progressif. Les transferts, en particulier les prestations autres que les pensions, réussissent assez bien à réduire les inégalités et la pauvreté. Le système éducatif devrait mieux soutenir les étudiants en risque de décrochage afin de réduire les taux de redoublement et d’abandon, tandis que l’augmentation des effectifs dans les classes serait un moyen raisonnable de générer des économies sans compromettre trop les apprentissages. En développant l’enseignement professionnel et la formation des adultes, notamment dans le contexte de politiques actives du marché du travail, on pourrait offrir à de nombreux ménages la possibilité d’accéder à de meilleurs revenus, ce qui aboutirait à une distribution des revenus plus équitable. |
| Keywords: | transfers, education, tax, pension, wages, distribution |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1258-en&r=all |
| By: | Lee Dinetan (GREMAQ - Groupe de recherche en économie mathématique et quantitative - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new class of processes aiming at modelling random fluctuations of an asset value more efficiently than traditional Lévy processes. In this study, we consider that the object value C is a real discrete random process (N → R), whose increments are subject to the present state of a "market", described by a Markovian process M : as the successive market states are not pairwise independent, C's fluctuations are not independent either, so C cannot be assimilated as a Lévy process. We call this structure a C-process : we present methods to analyze it, mainly extending the notion of Lundberg's parameter of a diffusion Lévy process, to take M into account during the computations. Once done, we aim more specifically at controlling C's default time T0 = min ({t ∈ N|C(t) < 0}) : we achieve it through its log-Laplace transform to get some of its properties, like C's default probability. |
| Abstract: | Nous introduisons une nouvelle classe de processus dont l'objet est de modéliser les fluctuations de la valeur d'un actif plus efficacement que le font les processus habituels Lévy. Dans cette étude, nous considérons que la valeur objet C est un processus aléatoire discret réel (N → R), dont les incréments sont soumis à l'état courant d'un "marché" décrit par un processus Markovien M : les états successifs du marché n'étant pas indépendants deux à deux, les fluctuations de C ne le sont pas non plus, donc C ne peut pas être assimilé à un processus de Lévy. Nous nommons cette structure un C-processus : nous présentons des méthodes pour l'analyser, notamment en étendant la notion d'exposant de Lundberg d'un processus de diffusion de Lévy, en tenant compte de M durant les calculs. Par la suite, nous nous intéresserons plus précisément au contrôle du temps de faillite de C, T0 = min ({t ∈ N|C(t) < 0}) : nous le ferons via sa transformée de log-Laplace afin d'obtenir certaines de ses propriétés, comme la probabilité de faillite de C. |
| Date: | 2014–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01103025&r=all |
| By: | Dinc, Serdar (Rutgers University); Erel, Isil (OH State University); Liao, Rose (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | Existing empirical studies estimate the impact of fire sales either without the benefit of market prices from frequent trades, as with aircraft sales, or without observing the prices received by distressed sellers, as with the sales of equity securities by mutual funds facing outflows. We study the corporate sale of minority equity stakes in publicly listed firms where market prices from frequent trades are available and the transaction share prices received by the vendors are reported. We estimate the distressed sale discount based on the four-week premium to be in the range of 15-19% for smaller stakes, with significantly higher discounts for larger stakes sold. Our results are robust to many target-, vendor-, and acquirer-level controls and alternative classifications. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-13&r=all |
| By: | Gugle, Elisabeth (University of Victoria); Zodrow, George R. (Rice University and Centre for Business Taxation, Oxford University) |
| Abstract: | The conventional wisdom in public finance is that local governments should finance public services, including those provided to businesses, with user charges that function as benefit taxes, and should in particular avoid inefficient source-based taxes on highly mobile capital. However, if user charges are not available or infeasible, several public finance experts have recently suggested that taxes on local production, such as an origin-based VAT, are a desirable alternative in that they serve as relatively efficient "benefit-related" taxes. We examine this contention formally in a model in which business public services must be financed with either a source-based tax on mobile capital, such as a property tax, or a tax on production, such as an origin-based VAT. In general, both a capital tax and a production tax are inefficient. However, consistent with the "benefit-related" view, the production tax is efficient if the production function belongs to the knife-edge case between log sub- and log supermodularity with respect to capital and public services (e.g., a Cobb-Douglas production function), while the capital tax results in underprovision of public services in this case. Similarly, if the production function is log submodular with respect to capital and public services (e.g., a CES production function with substitution elasticity greater than one), a production tax is again less inefficient than a capital tax, although both taxes result in underprovision of the public service. Finally, if the production function is log supermodular (e.g., a CES production function with substitution elasticity smaller than one), a production tax results in overprovision of the public service, while the effects of a capital tax--and thus the relative efficiency properties of the two taxes--are theoretically ambiguous. |
| JEL: | H11 H21 H41 H42 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-013&r=all |
| By: | Dougal Tylee |
| Abstract: | In August this year Dougal Tylee participated in the ‘Public-Private Partnerships: Building Infrastructure for the Future’ conference in Wellington, which was hosted by the ISCR and sponsored by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA). He outlines his thoughts from the conference. |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380001&r=all |
| By: | Bräutigam, Rainer; Spengel, Christoph; Streif, Frank |
| Abstract: | The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has become an influential player in the field of direct taxation in the European Union in the past twenty years. However, it is unclear whether the ECJ's decisions actually increase tax neutrality and therefore contribute to the achievement of an internal market as stipulated by the European treaties or not. In 2006, the ECJ limited the applicability of specific tax rules in Europe that are intended to prohibit the excessive use of low-tax countries. Our counterfactual scenarios show that this restriction of so-called controlled foreign company (CFC) rules and the related emergence of IP boxes cast doubt on the positive effects the ECJ is assumed to have. Additionally, we show that the abolishment of IP boxes would strengthen tax neutrality in Europe. Overall, further research is needed to relate and harmonise economic and legal concepts of tax neutrality. |
| Keywords: | European Court of Justice,Tax Neutrality,Effective Tax Rates,Controlled Foreign Company Rules,Intellectual Property Boxes |
| JEL: | H21 K10 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:15055&r=all |
| By: | Jasmina Arifovic; B. Curtis Eaton (University of Calgary); Graeme Walker |
| Abstract: | Social psychologists have shown that people experience cognitive dissonance when two or more of their cognitions diverge, and that they actively manage the dissonance. With this in mind, we develop a model of social learning in networks to understand the coevolution of beliefs and networks. We focus on beliefs concerning an objective phenomenon. Initial beliefs are based on noisy, private and unbiased information. Because the information is noisy, initial beliefs differ,creating dissonance. In our model, behavior is motivated by a desire to minimize this dissonance. In many circumstances this behavior adversely affects the efficiency of social learning, such that in equilibrium the mean aggregate belief is biased and there is significant variation of beliefs across the population. The parameterizations of our model that result in the most inefficient learning produce a fractionalized network structure in which there are a number of distinct groups: within any group all beliefs are identical; beliefs differ from group to group, sometimes greatly; there is no intergroup interaction. Since dissonance minimizing behavior is apparently a deeply rooted feature of humans, we are led to ask: What policies could improve the situation? Our results suggest that policies that improve the availability of objective information and/or increase the size of networks enhance efficiency of social learning. On the other hand, anything that makes changing networks more attractive as a dissonance minimizing strategy has the opposite effect. 1 |
| Date: | 2015–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clg:wpaper:2015-18&r=all |
| By: | Jagtiani, Julapa (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Kotliar, Ian (?); Maingi, Raman Quinn (?) |
| Abstract: | There have been increasing concerns about the potential of larger banks acquiring community banks and the declining number of community banks, which would significantly reduce small business lending (SBL) and disrupt relationship lending. This paper examines the roles and characteristics of U.S. community banks in the past decade, covering the recent economic boom and downturn. We analyze risk characteristics (including the confidential ratings assigned by bank regulators) of acquired community banks, compare pre- and post-acquisition performance and stock market reactions to these acquisitions, and investigate how the acquisitions have affected SBL. Contrary to concerns, we find that the overall amount of SBL tends to increase after a large bank acquires a community bank. The ratio of SBL to assets does decline in the large acquiring banks but at a slower rate than the decline seen in surviving community banks. Further, community banks that were merged during the financial crisis were mostly in poor financial condition, had been rated as unsatisfactory by their regulators on all risk aspects, and would have been unlikely to continue lending. We found that community bank targets accepted smaller merger premiums (or even discounts) to be part of a large banking organization. Our results indicate that mergers involving community bank targets over the past decade have enhanced the overall safety and soundness of the banking system without adversely impacting SBL. This implies that a policy that discourages mergers between community banks and large banks is unwarranted and could potentially result in a weaker financial system and have an unintentional dampening effect on the supply of SBL. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G34 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-17&r=all |
| By: | Hans Bækgaard (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a novel approach to modelling labour market processes in dynamic microsimulation. The method combines and integrates Bayesian simulation based estimation and simulation of the dependent variables. The approach is applied to a dynamic panel model for hourly wage rates for Danish employees using a large panel data set with 17 years of data for 1995 to 2011. The wage rate model and a parallel model for annual work hours are currently being implemented in SMILE (Simulation Model for Individual Lifecycle Evaluation), a new dynamic microsimulation model for the Danish household sector. The application benefits from the richness of Danish administrative panel data. Nevertheless, the results and the approach have several features that should be of interest to micro-simulators and others. Indeed, the model features both an extraordinarily comprehensive list of dependencies and a rich dynamic structure. Together, these features contribute to ensure that simulations produce realistic cross-sectional distributions and interactions as well as inter-temporal mobility – the key determinants of the quality of a dynamic microsimulation model. In addition to the 'usual' socio-demographic variables (gender, age, ethnicity, experience, education etc.), the dependencies include a more novel set of variables that represent a person’s labour market history, secondary school grade and social heritage (represented by the parent’s education level). The dynamic model structure includes a lagged dependent variable, an auto-correlated error term with a mixed Gaussian distribution for the white noise component, an individual random effect with a mixed Gaussian distribution and permanent effect of a person’s first wage after leaving the education system. The estimation sample is identical to the simulation sample, which allows us to use the same historical detail as well as estimated individual effects – i.e. random effect components – for the simulation of future wage rates. The Bayesian estimation method handles missing observations for the dependent variable – due to either non-employment or temporary non-participation – by treating missing observations as latent variables that are simulated alongside the Bayesian iterations. As a byproduct, the estimations produce model consistent latent wage rates for the unemployed that are useful for labour supply analysis. |
| Keywords: | labour market, modelling, dynamic microsimulation |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201301&r=all |
| By: | Eraslan, Hulya (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | I study a multilateral sequential bargaining model among risk averse players in which the players may differ in their probability of being selected as the proposer and the rate at which they discount future payoffs. For games in which agreement requires less than unanimous consent, I characterize the set of stationary subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs. With this characterization, I establish the uniqueness of the equilibrium payoffs. For the case where the players have the same discount factor, I show that the payoff to a player is nondecreasing in his probability of being selected as the proposer. For the case where the players have the same probability of being selected as the proposer, I show that the payoff to a player is nondecreasing in his discount factor. This generalizes Eraslan [2002] by allowing the players to be risk averse. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:15-001&r=all |
| By: | Claude Roche (LIP - Laboratoire d'innovation pédagogique - Université Catholique de Lille) |
| Abstract: | Notre objet est de caractériser certaines des mutations induites par ce qu’on appelle « l’économie de la connaissance». Nous partons de l’idée que nos économies évoluent fortement car le travail devient massivement intellectuel et cela touche, pensons-nous la nature même des connaissances produites en entreprise, ainsi que le mode de leur gouvernance. Ces mutations sont mal comprises des économistes, pour des raisons méthodologiques. En effet le travail intellectuel est fondamentalement immesurable – son efficacité renvoie à sa seule pertinence - alors que la mesurabilité est un présupposé des principales théories. Nous appuyant sur Kant, nous montrerons qu’il s’agit d’une aporie majeure, qui atteint jusqu’au projet d’une science économique (toute science pour Kant, procède par délimitation préalable de son objet, et donc présuppose la mesurabilité). Contre l’illusion scientifique, nous poserons que cette économie doit être interrogée de deux points de vue spécifiques, épistémologique et managérial : avec deux résultats La mutation de la nature de la connaissance Pour la littérature spécialisée (Foray), la connaissance est un « en-soi » défini extérieurement au monde économique. C’est une erreur, et nous poserons que, du fait de la complexité des objets, y apparaissent des modes spécifiques de connaître : à la fois collectifs et transdisciplinaires (Schmid). Tel est le cas de la conception innovante, du design thinking et du codesign dans le développement duquel nous sommes impliqués. Nous décrirons ces pratiques en détail insistant notamment sur ce que l’ancrage économique fonctionne comme une contrainte d’objectivation. Nous poserons alors l’hypothèse qu’elles peuvent dépasser les apories de la connaissance éclatée considérées comme caractéristiques de la « post-modernité»(Lyotard) Il s’agira alors de qualifier économiquement ces pratiques ; et le ferons de façon réflexive à partir de l’expérience récente du management Une tension entre efficacité opérationnelle et pilotage financier La caractéristique de cette économie est qu’elle génère une tension entre deux logiques de gouvernance de l’entreprise : l’efficacité opérationnelle et la rationalité gestionnaire. Celle-ci domine toujours, mais elle échoue à saisir l’efficacité de la connaissance car ses notions centrales - ressource, capital - sont par essence privatives, là où une connaissance privatisée devient inopérante. Stricto-sensu, elle n’est qu’une ressource répartie (un pseudo-capital pour Llerana). Nous montrerons par contre que le management s’est adapté à cette réalité ; nous le ferons en réinterprétant les doctrines managériales récentes. Nous décrirons alors cette tension par des exemples vécus, montrant qu’elle peut conduire à un dialogue de pilotage, au sens de Lorino, opposant le principe financier à celui de l’efficacité du travail intellectuel. Jusqu’où peut aller ce dialogue ? Jusqu’à intégrer des intérêts extérieurs à l’entreprise ? La logique le voudrait. Car le propre du connaitre est d’englober les enjeux de son contexte. Cela s’observe d’ailleurs dans certains dispositifs « d’open innovation » souvent sensibles aux questions de développement durable (Von Hippel). Nous ne pourrons cependant en juger de façon fiable. Cette contribution n’ayant de sens que de montrer les conditions d’une telle interrogation |
| Date: | 2014–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01143583&r=all |
| By: | Marina Halac; Pierre Yared |
| Abstract: | Governments are present-biased toward spending. Fiscal rules are deficit limits that trade off commitment to not overspend and flexibility to react to shocks. We compare centralized rules — chosen jointly by all countries — to decentralized rules. If governments' present bias is small, centralized rules are tighter than decentralized rules: individual countries do not internalize the redistributive effect of interest rates. However, if the bias is large, centralized rules are slacker: countries do not internalize the disciplining effect of interest rates. Surplus limits and money burning enhance welfare, and inefficiencies arise if some countries adopt stricter rules than imposed centrally. |
| JEL: | D02 D82 E6 H1 P16 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21492&r=all |
| By: | Ben-David, Itzhak (OH State University); Franzoni, Francesco A. (University of Lugano and Swiss Finance Institute); Moussawi, Rabih (University of PA); Sedunov, John, III (Villanova University) |
| Abstract: | Over last 35 years institutional ownership became concentrated at unprecedented levels; e.g., the stock holdings by the largest ten asset management firms quadrupled from 5.6% to 23.1%. Due to their sheer size, institution-level shocks cannot be diversified away and can spill over to the underlying securities. We document that stock ownership by the largest institutional investors leads to an increase in the volatility of the assets that they hold. Furthermore, stocks held by the largest institutional investors exhibit patterns of price inefficiency. We show that these effects are triggered by institution-level idiosyncratic news and channeled through large trades. |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G23 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-09&r=all |
| By: | Kalpana Kochhar; Catherine A. Pattillo; Yan Sun; Nujin Suphaphiphat; Andrew Swiston; Robert Tchaidze; Benedict J. Clements; Stefania Fabrizio; Valentina Flamini; Laure Redifer; Harald Finger |
| Abstract: | This paper examines water challenges, a growing global concern with adverse economic and social consequences, and discusses economic policy instruments. Water subsidies provided through public utilities are estimated at about $456 billion or 0.6 percent of global GDP in 2012. The paper suggests that getting economic incentives right, notably by reforming water pricing, can go a long way towards encouraging more efficient water use and supporting needed investment, while enabling policies that protect the poor. It also discusses pricing reform options and emphasizes an integrated and holistic approach to manage water, going beyond the water sector itself. The IMF can play a helpful role in ensuring that macroeconomic policies are conducive to sound water management. |
| Keywords: | Economic policy;Fund role;Policy instruments;Supply and demand;Subsidies;Water supply;Water resources;Water, externalities, public utilities, water use, water management, water infrastructure |
| Date: | 2015–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:15/11&r=all |
| By: | Klimczuk, Andrzej; Tomczyk, Łukasz |
| Abstract: | A publication called Aging in the Social Space is a compilation of studies, which deal with theoretical understanding and empirical solutions, learning about problem spheres, specifying content parallels of social, legal, economic, moral and ethical views on senior issues in society, which are closely related to each other and are interconnected. This publication focus on the case study of Poland. It is supposed to provide a multidimensional view of old age issues and issues related to aging and care for old people in society. We believe that it is natural also to name individual spheres, in which society has some eff ect, either direct or indirect, within issues concerning seniors. Learning about these spheres is the primary prerequisite for successful use of social help to seniors in society. |
| Keywords: | aging, ageing, older people, gerontology, active ageing, Poland |
| JEL: | J14 J18 Z18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66146&r=all |
| By: | Battaglini, Marco; Nunnari, Salvatore; Palfrey, Thomas R |
| Abstract: | Most public goods are durable and have a significant dynamic component. In this paper, we report the results from a laboratory experiment designed explicitly to study the dynamics of free riding behavior in the accumulation of a durable public good that provides a stream of discounted benefits over a potentially infinite horizon. This dynamic free-rider problem differs from static ones in fundamental ways and implies several economically important predictions that are absent in static frameworks. We consider two cases: economies with reversibility (RIE), where the agents’ voluntary contributions to the public good can be positive or negative; and economies with irreversibility (IIE), where contributions are non negative. For both economies, we characterize the unique Markov perfect equilibrium. The evidence supports the main predictions from the theory: behavior is generally consistent with stationary, forward-looking behavior; both in RIE and IIE the accumulation path is inefficiently slow and the public good under-provided; and RIE induces significantly higher public good contributions than IIE. A number of interesting deviations from the theoretical predictions are observed: both in RIE and in IIE we have over-investment in the early rounds of the game; in RIE over-investment is followed by periods in which negative contributions correct the stock, bringing it back to the predicted steady state; in IIE over-investment tends to decline approaching zero. To test the Markovian assumption, we compare the predictions of the Markov equilibrium with the prediction of the most efficient subgame perfect equilibrium and propose a novel experimental methodology that relies on the comparison between the behavior in the dynamic game and the behavior in a one-period reduced-form version of the dynamic game. |
| Keywords: | durable public goods; experiments; voluntary contribution mechanism |
| JEL: | C72 C73 C78 C92 H41 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10788&r=all |
| By: | Salm, Martin; Wübker, Ansgar |
| Abstract: | Medical providers often have a significant influence on treatment decisions which they can use in their own financial interest. Classical models of supplier-induced demand predict that medical providers will supply fewer services if they face increasing prices. We test this prediction based on a reform of hospital financing in Germany. Uniquely, this reform changed the overall level of reimbursement - with increasing prices for some hospitals and decreasing prices for others - without affecting the relative prices for different types of patients. Based on administrative data, we find that hospitals do indeed react to increasing prices by reducing service supply. |
| Abstract: | Anbieter von medizinischen Leistungen treffen häufig Behandlungsentscheidungen für ihre Patienten und haben die Möglichkeit, bei diesen Entscheidungen ihre eigenen finanziellen Interessen zu berücksichtigen. Klassische Modelle der Theorie der 'angebotsinduzierten Nachfrage' prognostizieren, dass medizinische Anbieter auf höhere Preise reagieren, indem sie weniger Leistungen erbringen. Wir testen diese Vorhersage auf Grundlage einer Reform der Krankenhausfinanzierung in Deutschland. Das Besondere an der Finanzierungsreform in Deutschland ist, dass die Reform die Preise für Krankenhäuser verändert hat - mit steigenden Preisen für einige Krankenhäuser und sinkenden Preisen für andere - ohne dabei die relativen Preise für die Behandlung unterschiedlicher Patientengruppen oder unterschiedlicher Krankheiten zu beeinflussen. Unter Nutzung administrativer Daten finden wir, dass Krankenhäuser tatsächlich weniger Leistungen erbringen, wenn die Preise steigen. |
| Keywords: | physician-induced demand,hospital care,prospective payment |
| JEL: | I11 L10 L21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:567&r=all |
| By: | Camille Cornand (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Romain Baeriswyl (Swiss National Bank - Swiss National Bank) |
| Abstract: | The weight assigned to public information in Keynesian beauty contest depends on the signal precision and on the degree of strategic complementarities. This experimental study shows that the response of subjects to changes in the signal precision and in the degree of strategic complementarities is qualitatively consistent with theoretical predictions, though quantitatively weaker. The weaker subjects’ response to changes in the signal precision, however, mainly drives the weight observed in the experiment, making strategic complementarities and overreaction an issue of second order. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01098772&r=all |
| By: | Joseph P. Byrne; Marina-Eliza Spaliara; Serafeim Tsoukas |
| Abstract: | Using a large panel of unquoted UK firms over the period 2000-09, we examine the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependent on bank finance as well as public and non-public companies. Our results document a significant effect of uncertainty on firm survival. This link is found to be more potent during the recent financial crisis compared with tranquil periods. We also uncover significant firm-level heterogeneity since the survival chances of bank-dependent and non-public firms are most affected by changes in uncertainty, especially during the recent global financial crisis. |
| JEL: | E44 F32 F34 G32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1506&r=all |
| By: | Claire Crawford; Lindsey Macmillan; Anna Vignoles |
| Keywords: | attainment, social mobility, education, secondary, primary |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:spccwp:20&r=all |
| By: | Prabir C. Bhattacharya |
| Abstract: | This paper reports additional results to those presented in an accompanying paper that set out a framework for thinking about optimal development of a developing economy with an informal sector. |
| JEL: | C02 C61 E27 O11 O17 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1504a&r=all |
| By: | Maximilian Mueller (WHUÐOtto Beisheim School of Management); Denis Schweizer (Concordia University); Volker Seiler (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | Rare earth elements (REEs) have become increasingly important because of their relative scarcity and worldwide increasing demand, as well as China's quasi-monopoly of this market. REEs are virtually not substitutable, and they are essential for a variety of high-tech products and modern key technologies. This has raised serious concerns that China will misuse its dominant position to set export quotas in order to maximize its own profits at the expense of other rare earth user industries (wealth transfer motive). In fact, export restrictions on REEs were the catalyst for the U.S. to lodge a formal complaint against China in 2012 at the WTO. This paper analyzes possible wealth transfer effects by focusing on export quota announcements (so-called MOFCOM announcements) by China, and the share price reactions of Chinese REE suppliers, U.S. REE users, and the rest of the world REE refiners. Overall, we find limited support for the view of a wealth transfer in connection with MOFCOM announcements only when disentangling events prior to and post the initiation of the WTO trial, consistent with the trial triggering changes to ChinaÕs REE policy and recent announcement to abolish quotas. We do find, however, that extreme REE price movements have a first order effect on all companies in the REE industry consistent with recent market trends to enable hedging against REE price volatility. |
| Keywords: | Announcement Effects, Event Study, Rare Earths Elements, WTO |
| JEL: | F13 F52 G14 Q31 Q34 Q37 Q38 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:92&r=all |
| By: | Berndt Keller; Hartmut Seifert |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with various forms of atypical employment in the public sector that are widely neglected in existing research; its specific focus is on their development, scope, distribution and structural features. In the first part we break down the purely statistical category and differentiate between the disparate forms (part-time, marginal employment or minijobs, midijobs, fixed-term, agency work). In the second part we address the question if these forms are not only atypical, but also have to be classified as precarious. We distinguish various risks operative in the short, medium and long term (income, stability of employment and employability, pensions). Finally, we differentiate between employment in the private as well as the public sector and draw parallels and indicate specific differences in their development and situation. Our basic finding is that atypical forms of employment are also widespread in the public sector but are all in all less precarious than in the private sector. The distribution of individual forms shows major differences between both sectors whereas the overall percentages are similar. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp774&r=all |
| By: | Leander Heldring; James A. Robinson; Sebastian Vollmer |
| Abstract: | We examine the long-run economic impact of the Dissolution of the English monasteries in 1535, which is plausibly linked to the commercialization of agriculture and the location of the Industrial Revolution. Using monastic income at the parish level as our explanatory variable, we show that parishes which the Dissolution impacted more had more textile mills and employed a greater share of population outside agriculture, had more gentry and agricultural patent holders, and were more likely to be enclosed. Our results extend Tawney’s famous ‘rise of the gentry’ thesis by linking social change to the Industrial Revolution. |
| JEL: | N43 N63 N93 O14 Q15 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21450&r=all |
| By: | Estelle Malavolti (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - Toulouse School of Economics, LEEA - ENAC - Laboratoire d'Economie et d'Econométrie de l'Aérien - PRES Université de Toulouse - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile); Frédéric Marty (OFCE - Observatoire Français des Conjonctures économiques - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris - Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques [FNSP]) |
| Abstract: | Un abondant contentieux concurrentiel a été suscité par des conventions liant des aéroports secondaires et des compagnies aériennes à bas coût. Ces dernières ont en effet été passées au crible de l’encadrement européen des aides publiques car elles risquaient de donner lieu tant à des distorsions de concurrence entre opérateurs qu’à des phénomènes de concurrence fiscales entre des infrastructures souvent en situation de surcapacités et entretenant des rapports de substituabilité. La Commission a modifié les lignes directrices en 2014 en ouvrant la possibilité d’aides à l’exploitation mais pour une durée limitée. Cette avancée semble s’inscrire en contradiction avec les principes de base de l’encadrement des aides publiques. Notre contribution montre néanmoins, à l’aide d’un modèle économique, que de tels dispositifs peuvent faire sens dès lors que la relation n’est pas conçue comme une chaîne verticale, induisant une dépendance économique de l’aéroport secondaire vis-à-vis de la compagnie aérienne mais comme s’intégrant dans un marché biface dans lequel il fait sens économiquement de subventionner des flux de passager sur l’une des faces pour maximiser d’autres revenus commerciaux (boutiques, parkings) sur l’autre face. Ce faisant, une aide publique à l’exploitation peut être justifiée économiquement et n’a pas obligatoirement à être transitoire. Ainsi, un soutien à une desserte (par exemple sous forme de réduction des redevances aéroportuaires) pourrait s’intégrer dans une logique d’investisseur privé en économie de marché. |
| Date: | 2015–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01115048&r=all |
| By: | Oliver Robertson |
| Abstract: | When central and local governments are called upon to evaluate the costs and benefits of large infrastructure investment projects, they must rely upon models that simplify the complex, dynamic and adaptive realities of the economic, social and political systems into which the infrastructure will be deployed. Oliver Robertson explores the merits of different modelling approaches used to evaluate large-scale transportation investments. |
| Date: | 2014–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380103&r=all |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar; Karim Ouled Belayachi |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:310206&r=all |
| By: | Mohammad Amin; Jamal Ibrahim Haidar |
| Abstract: | It is argued that compared with large countries, small countries rely more on trade and therefore are more likely to adopt liberal trading policies. The present paper extends this idea beyond the conventional trade openness measures by analyzing the relationship between country size and the number of documents required to export and import, a measure of trade facilitation. Three important results follow. First, trade facilitation does improve as country size becomes smaller; that is, small countries perform better than large countries in terms of trade facilitation. Second, the relationship between country size and trade facilitation is nonlinear, much stronger for the relatively small than the large countries. Third, contrary to what existing studies might suggest, the relationship between country size and trade facilitation does not appear to be driven by the fact that small countries trade more as a proportion of their gross domestic product than the large countries. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:304981&r=all |
| By: | H Peyton Young; Paul Glasserman |
| Date: | 2015–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:753&r=all |
| By: | Beyene,Abebe D.; Bluffstone,Randall; Dissanayake,Sahan; Gebreegziabher,Zenebe; Martinsson,Peter; Mekonnen,Alemu; Toman,Michael A. |
| Abstract: | This paper provides field experiment?based evidence on the potential additional forest carbon sequestration that cleaner and more fuel-efficient cookstoves might generate. The paper focuses on the Mirt (meaning ?best?) cookstove, which is used to bake injera, the staple food in Ethiopia. The analysis finds that the technology generates per-meal fuel savings of 22 to 31 percent compared with a traditional three-stone stove with little or no increase in cooking time. Because approximately 88 percent of harvests from Ethiopian forests are unsustainable, these findings suggest that the Mirt stove, and potentially improved cookstoves more generally, can contribute to reduced forest degradation. These savings may be creditable under the United Nations Collaborative Program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries. Because of the highly specific nature of the Mirt stove and the lack of refrigeration in rural Ethiopia, rebound effects are unlikely, but this analysis was unable completely to rule out such leakage. The conclusions are therefore indicative, pending evidence on the frequency of Mirt stove use in the field. The effects of six randomized behavioral treatments on fuelwood and cooking time outcomes were also evaluated, but limited effects were found. |
| Keywords: | Urban Environment,Energy Production and Transportation,Renewable Energy,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Environmental Economics&Policies |
| Date: | 2015–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7394&r=all |
| By: | Subrata Sarkar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In recent years the comply-or-explain approach for enforcing corporate governance norms has gained ground in regulatory parlance. The comply-or-explain approach has the advantage of tailoring governance norms to specific characteristics of individual companies which is believed to lead to more efficient corporate governance outcomes compared to the "one size fits all" approach that is often argued to be inherent in the comply-or-else approach. Yet, the effectiveness of the comply-or-explain approach presupposes the existence of many institutional conditions like ownership and control structure of companies, responsibility and transparency of their financial operations, efficiency of stock markets, and ability and incentives of shareholders to assess corporate behavior, all of which could take a long time to evolve and could be challenging especially for emerging economies. This article critically examines the relative advantages of the comply-or-explain approach vis-…-vis the more traditional comply-or-else approach and identifies the specific institutional conditions which are required for its success in achieving effective governance of companies. |
| Keywords: | Corporate governance, strategic behavior, governance norms, enforcement, convergence |
| JEL: | D22 D82 G34 G38 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2015-022&r=all |
| By: | Fertig, Michael |
| Abstract: | "The pilot project 'Berliner Joboffensive' (BJO) aimed at increasing the number of labor market integrations of individuals receiving meanstested unemployment benefits II (also known as Hartz IV) by intensified counseling and assistance. To this end, the caseload of 650 caseworkers in twelve Jobcenters in Berlin was reduced to 100 jobseekers per caseworker. Furthermore, these jobseekers were considered to be relatively close to the labor market and should have received intensive and individualized help to find an appropriate job on the (first) labor market quickly. The Federal Employment Office commissioned the ISG-Institute to identify the causal effects of the BJO. To this end, a conditional difference-in-difference approach was established to assess effectiveness and efficiency of the BJO. The report at hand summarizes the results." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Beschäftigungsförderung - Modellversuch, arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme - Erfolgskontrolle, Arbeitslosengeld II-Empfänger, berufliche Reintegration, Langzeitarbeitslose, Case Management, Jobcenter, Arbeitsvermittlung, Beschäftigungseffekte, matching - Effizienz, Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien, IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik, Beschäftigungsdauer, Grundsicherung nach SGB II - Zu- und Abgänge, Berlin, Bundesrepublik Deutschland |
| Date: | 2015–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:201506&r=all |
| By: | Bannier, Christina E.; Schürg, Carolin |
| Abstract: | We examine firms' simultaneous choice of investment, debt financing and liquidity in a large sample of US corporates between 1980 and 2014. We partition the sample according to the firms' financial constraints and their needs to hedge against future shortfalls in operating income. In contrast to earlier work, our joint estimation approach shows that cash flows affect the corporate decisions of unconstrained firms more strongly than those of constrained firms. Investment-cash flow sensitivities are particularly intense for unconstrained firms with high hedging needs. Investment opportunities (as proxied by Q), however, play a larger role for constrained firms with the effects being strongest in case of low hedging needs. Interestingly, constrained firms with low hedging needs are found to employ more debt to finance their investment opportunities and build up significant cash holdings at the same time. Our results hence indicate overinvestment behavior for unconstrained firms but no underinvestment for constrained firms if they have low hedging needs. |
| Keywords: | cash flow sensitivity,investment,debt issuance,cash holdings |
| JEL: | G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:509&r=all |
| By: | William Barnett (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas; Center for Financial Stability, New York City; IC2 Institute, University of Texas at Austin) |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:201501&r=all |
| By: | Hall, Viv B.; McDermott, C. John |
| Abstract: | We compute classical real GDP business cycles and growth cycles, contrast classical recessions with ‘technical’ recessions, and assess the sensitivity of our peaks and troughs to data revisions. Using this information we find that, on average, real GDP and employment cycles have had an 89% association. Other key findings are (i) New Zealand’s average pattern of recovery has differed from that for U.S. NBER cycles, but their most recent recession and recovery paths have been unusually similar; (ii) the strength of New Zealand's business cycle recoveries has been independent of the depth, duration, or severity of the preceding recession; and (iii) investment is an important component of expansions, and in the current cycle it has been residential investment and plant and equipment investment that have been unusually slow to recover their levels at prior business cycle peaks. |
| Keywords: | Classical business cycles, Growth cycles, Employment cycles, Recessions, Economic recoveries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:4688&r=all |
| By: | Lambrecht, Lars |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:50&r=all |
| By: | Hamid Bouchikhi (Accounting / Management Control Department - Essec Business School); John R. Kimberly (University of Pennsylvania [Philadelphia]) |
| Abstract: | As of July 1, 2010, the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of the Holy Spirit (UHS) has a single Department of Economics. However, in the seven prior years, there were two economics departments, one that was resolutely mainstream and the other that was just as resolutely heterodox. What accounts for this unusual organizational arrangement? We show that this arrangement was part of a protracted conflict about the kind of economics that befits the Catholic identity of UHS that resulted, ultimately, in a full embrace of mainstream economics in July 2010. We draw on and amend Oliver's (1991) typology of organizational responses to institutional processes and investigate why and how UHS went from deliberate avoidance to full acquiescence to mainstream economics. Our analysis suggests that while organizations may be compelled to adapt to dominant norms, as institutional theorists contend, the process of adaptation involves a variety of conflicting moves and counter moves that engage identity and power and that require forceful leadership to resolve. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00993435&r=all |
| By: | Sabine Le Bayon (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Malgré la reprise de la croissance au cours de l'année 2013, le PIB allemand n'a progressé que de 0,5 % en moyenne sur l'ensemble de l'année (contre -0,4 % dans la zone euro). L'acquis de croissance début 2013 était négatif (-0,3 point de pourcentage) et le mauvais premier trimestre a pesé sur la performance annuelle. Au second semestre, alors que la consommation des ménages a décéléré - et s'est même contractée en fin d'année - l'investissement tant en construction que productif et les exportations ont progressé plus vigoureusement. Nous inscrivons en prévision un rebond de la croissance, avec respectivement 1,8 % en 2014 et 1,7 % en 2015. D'une part, l'impulsion budgétaire sera légèrement positive (0,3 point en 2014, puis 0,1 point en 2015) et l'Allemagne pâtira moins de la restriction budgétaire de ses partenaires (avec un effet sur sa croissance de -0,5 point en 2014 puis -0,4 point en 2015). D'autre part, la bonne situation financière des agents et les conditions de financement particulièrement favorables amplifieraient le rebond de l'investissement (tant productif qu'en construction), attendu à cette phase du cycle. n |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00994711&r=all |
| By: | Neil Foster-McGregor (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Koenen Johannes; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Baker Paul; Julia Schricker; Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Thomas Strobel; Jurgen Vermeulen; Hans-Günther Vieweg; Anastasia Yagafarova |
| Abstract: | Summary The share of manufacturing in GDP is declining, whereas the share of services – and business-related services in particular – is rising in almost all advanced economies. However, as these industries are mutually dependent in various ways this study focuses on the manufacturing sector as a user of activities provided by the services industries and – in particular – the way the latter contributes to productivity and value creation in the former. To the extent that this is the case, manufacturing industries benefit from a vibrant business-services industry and themselves play an important ‘carrier function’ of services – issues which are addressed by considering manufacturing activities in a value chain approach. As a consequence, EU Member States facing a declining share of manufacturing might still be part of the manufacturing value chain via the provision of services whereas other countries benefit from services provided by other countries. The role of cross-border flows of services and the patterns of outsourcing and offshoring of such activities across Europe is therefore gaining importance. It is argued that a differentiated pattern of specialisation emerged within Europe with a set of countries keeping a stronghold in manufacturing industries and others are specialising in the provision of related services, whereas some countries have faced a decline in their manufacturing shares, but have not succeeded in increasing their specialisation in business services either. The first four sections of the study present selected quantitative indicators concerning the ‘manufacturing value chains’, discuss the relative importance of the manufacturing–services interaction and its cross-border dimensions, and point towards differences across countries, industries and services activities, and the respective changes over time. Further, impacts of these interactions on manufacturing performance are addressed econometrically. The following two sections highlight important dimensions of services use in manufacturing and issues related to services trade and potential barriers in that respect for selected industries and countries, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative insights. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing-service interaction, EU-wide specialisation, manufacturing value chains, industry studies |
| JEL: | F10 L6 L8 O14 R15 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:404&r=all |
| By: | Marta C. N. Simões (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, and GEMF, Portugal); Adelaide P. S. Duarte (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, and GEMF, Portugal); João Sousa Andrade (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, and GEMF, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the possibility that the austerity measures implemented in Portugal, that translate into a reduction of the respective welfare state, can not only hamper short term economic recovery but also compromise long-run macroeconomic performance, based on their impact on income inequality. We estimate a near-VAR model with social spending, inequality and output and perform impulse response analysis over the period 1980-2013 to investigate whether the recent expansion of the Portuguese welfare state constituted an obstacle or an opportunity for this country’s macroeconomic performance. Our results point to social spending as an expansionary fiscal policy instrument that can alleviate the downturn in output in the short-term. The long-term role of social spending is less clear due to its ambiguous effect on overall income inequality. We conclude that more important than the insufficient increase in social benefits due to fiscal consolidation efforts seems to be the need to carefully target social support so that there is no equity-efficiency trade-off. |
| Keywords: | social spending, inequality, economic growth, Portugal, VAR. |
| JEL: | H53 O40 O52 P16 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2015-16.&r=all |
| By: | Stijn Oosterlynck; Yuri Kazepov,; Andreas Novy; Pieter Cools; Tatiana Sarius; Florian Wukovitsch |
| Abstract: | This paper presents stylized profiles of the welfare regimes of Austria, Italy and Belgium. It gives a brief overview of the demographic condition and socioeconomic dynamics (especially poverty) of the respective countries, its social policies and expenditures, the situation and policies with regard to labour market and activation, education and the position of ethnic minorities and housing. We combine this with descriptions of the vertical and horizontal governance system of its welfare regime. Finally, on the basis of the all this, we reflect on how a range of governance challenges for socially innovative initiatives, related to the need to coordinate a multiplicity of actors and instruments and work across various spatial scales, express themselves in each of these three welfare regimes. The main aim of this paper is to act as a background document to facilitate the comparison between case studies of socially innovative initiatives and assess how the type of welfare regime and its horizontal and vertical governance system shape the forms of social innovation that emerge in particular countries. |
| Keywords: | social innovation, welfare regime, governance, housing, labour market activation, education, ethnic minorities |
| JEL: | I H77 P16 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1517&r=all |
| By: | Heller, Yuval |
| Abstract: | Various papers have presented folk-theorem results that yield efficiency in the repeated Prisoner's Dilemma with imperfect private monitoring. I present a mild equilibrium refinement that requires robustness against small perturbations in the behavior of potential opponents, and I show that only defection satisfies this mild refinement among all the equilibria in the existing literature, unless one assumes either (1) communication among the players, or (2) sufficient correlation between the private signals (conditional on the action-profile). |
| Keywords: | Belief-free equilibrium, evolutionary stability, imperfect private monitoring, repeated Prisoner's Dilemma, communication. |
| JEL: | C73 D82 |
| Date: | 2015–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:64468&r=all |
| By: | Bethke, Sebastian; Gehde-Trapp, Monika; Kempf, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We examine the dynamics of bond correlation using a broad sample of US corporate bonds, and document that bond correlation varies heavily over time. We attribute this variation in bond correlation to variation in risk factor correlation reflecting time-varying flight-to-quality behavior of investors. We show that risk factor correlation increases when investor sentiment decreases, i.e., corporate bond investors exhibit stronger flight-to-quality when their sentiment is low. Thus, low investor sentiment leads to flightto- quality behavior and, ultimately, high bond correlation. |
| Keywords: | bond correlation,risk factor correlation,flight-to-quality,investor sentiment |
| JEL: | G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1306r3&r=all |
| By: | Contò, Francesco; Fiore, Mariantonietta; Conte, Alessandra; Pellegrini, Giustina |
| Abstract: | Over the last decades, food waste has generated an immense amounts across the food life cycle, determining serious environmental, social and economic issues. Reducing the amount of food waste is a key element in developing a sustainable food system.The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between food waste and belief, attitudes and behaviours at the household level so exploring its possible drivers among Italian consumers: how people could reduce or avoid the amount of food waste is the main step for addressing the consumer behaviour and for planning shopping routines. In effect avoidable food waste represents the majority of food waste generated at the household level. The disposal of food is the final step in the food provisioning process (Munro, 1995) entailing a series of food-related behaviours from purchasing food to preparing and eating it (Jensen et al., 2012). The Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen,1991) helps to understanding how the people actions can be modified linking beliefs and behaviour; this theory is our starting point to predict household decisions in order to avoid, to minimize or to recycle waste (Biswa et al., 2000; Knussen et al., 2004) as well as to improve food-related behaviours (Conner & Armitage, 2002). To this end, an on-line survey was carried out via social networks and e-mail. A focus group and a pilot test with 12 Italian consumers were conducted to support the questionnaire design. 256 were respondents. Results are in line with the studies on this research topics. The current study focuses on Italian consumers, but the basic concepts in our framework should be replicable and so applicable to any society. The policy implications are related to the crucial importance that new models to address behaviour consumer have to be identified in order to change eating habits and attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Food Waste, Shopping routines, Consumer behaviour, Theory of Planned Behaviour., Agricultural and Food Policy, Q10, Q18, D12., |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aiea15:207355&r=all |
| By: | Martin Ravallion (Georgetown University and NBER, U.S.A.) |
| Abstract: | It is sometimes argued that poorer people choose to work less, implying less welfare inequality than suggested by observed incomes. Social policies have also acknowledged that efforts differ, and that people respond to incentives. Prevailing measures of inequality (in outcomes or opportunities) do not, however, measure incomes consistently with personal choices of effort. The direction of bias is unclear given the heterogeneity in efforts and preferences. Data on the labor supplies of single American adults suggest that adjusting for effort imposing common preferences attenuates inequality, although the effect is small. Allowing for preference heterogeneity consistently with behavior suggests higher inequality. |
| Keywords: | income, welfare, inequality, poverty, effort, labor supply. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2015-367&r=all |
| By: | Patrick Bonnel (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]); Pascal Pochet (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of transport mode use is essential to understand and/or forecast travel behavior, and therefore to respond to planning needs. Given the strong economic, social, and environmental stakes related to transport mode use, especially car use, a considerable number of empirical or theoretical works can be found in the last decades. This knowledge is more and more used in order to propose new transport policies emphasizing the need to increase the use of more s.ustainable, safer and more healthful transport modes |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01115093&r=all |
| By: | Yingling Fan; Andrew Guthrie; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Waiting and transferring in transit travel are often perceived negatively and can be significant obstacles to mode shifts between automobile to transit. High-amenity stations, transit centers served by multiple routes and multimodal hubs are becoming increasingly popular as strategies for mitigating transit users' aversion to waiting and transferring. However, beyond recent evidence that realtime departure information reduces perceived waiting time, there is limited empirical evidence as to which other specific station and stop amenities can effectively influence user perceptions of waiting time. To address this knowledge gap, the authors conducted a passenger survey and video-recorded waiting passengers at different types of transit stops and stations to investigate the impacts of various station characteristics on transit users' perceptions of waiting and transferring time, controlling for weather and time of day. The authors employ regression analysis to explain the variation in riders' waiting time estimates as a function of their objectively observed waiting times, as well as station and stop amenities, while controlling for weather, time of day, self-reported and observed socio-demographic characteristics and trip characteristics. Based on the results, waits at stops with no amenities are perceived as twice as long or longer than they actually are. Benches, shelters and realtime departure information signs significantly reduce perceived waiting times. A complete package of all three nearly erases the time perception penalty of waiting. Women waiting in surroundings perceived to be insecure report waits as dramatically longer than they really are, and longer than do men and/or respondents in surroundings perceived to be secure. However, the provision of stop amenities significantly reduces this disparity. The authors recommend a focus on providing basic stop amenities as broadly as possible, continued exploration of methods for communicating arrival information and a particular focus on stops in less safe areas for improvements. |
| Keywords: | transit; waiting time; perception; realtime information; security; gender |
| JEL: | R41 C93 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:stopsandstations&r=all |
| By: | Charles D. Brummitt (Center for the Management of Systemic Risk, Columbia University); Teruyoshi Kobayashi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1502&r=all |
| By: | Jacques Melitz |
| Abstract: | How far has English already spread? How much further can we expect it to go? In response to the first question, this chapter tries to identify the areas of life where English already serves as a lingua franca in the world (more or less) and those where the language faces sharp competition and does not threaten to marginalize the other major languages. The former areas of life are international safety, the internal business of international organizations, internal communication within the international news industry, international sports and science. The latter areas are the press, television, the internet, publishing and international trade. As to the second question, about the future prospects of English, the chapter argues that the advance of English will depend heavily on the motives to learn the other major languages in the world as well. Based on the empirical evidence, the same model applies to the incentives to learn English and these other languages. On the important topic of welfare, the cultural market is the single one where it is arguable that the progress of English has gone too far. English dominance in the song, the cinema and the best-seller is indeed extraordinary and difficult to reconcile with the evidence popular attachments to home languages, which is otherwise strong and apparent. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1505&r=all |
| By: | Antoine Jacquier; Martin Keller-Ressel |
| Abstract: | We consider implied volatilities in asset pricing models, where the discounted underlying is a strict local martingale under the pricing measure. Our main result gives an asymptotic expansion of the right wing of the implied volatility smile and shows that the strict local martingale property can be determined from this expansion. This result complements the well-known asymptotic results of Lee and Benaim-Friz, which apply only to true martingales. This also shows that `price bubbles' in the sense of strict local martingale behaviour can in principle be detected by an analysis of implied volatility. Finally we relate our results to left-wing expansions of implied volatilities in models with mass at zero by a duality method based on an absolutely continuous measure change. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04351&r=all |
| By: | Yan Dolinsky; Ariel Neufeld |
| Abstract: | We study the problem of super-replication of game options in general stochastic volatility models which include e.g. the Heston model, the Hull-White model and the Scott model. For simplicity, we consider models with one risky asset. We show that the super-replication price is the cheapest cost of a trivial super-replication strategy. Furthermore, we calculate explicitly the super-replication price and the corresponding optimal hedge. The super-replication price can be seen as the game variant of a concave envelope. Our approach is purely probabilistic. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.05233&r=all |
| By: | Taylor, Richard; Koo, Won W. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ndappb:207939&r=all |
| By: | Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM) |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201502&r=all |
| By: | Bastien Bernela (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | Access of young PhDs to scientific position is a recurrent concern in recent empirical works. The issue of spatial mobility of researchers is also often discussed, but rarely both simultaneously. We propose a joint analysis of the determinants of occupational and geographical PhDs paths by using three Céreq generation surveys (2001, 2004, 2007). Descriptive statistics and estimation of a bivariate probit highlight the strengthening of PhDs geographical mobility, and the growing importance of publications for access to academic employment. |
| Abstract: | L’accès à l’emploi scientifique des jeunes docteurs est une préoccupation récurrente dans les travaux empiriques récents. Si la question de la mobilité spatiale des chercheurs fait également débat, ce sont souvent deux problématiques indépendantes. Nous proposons une analyse conjointe des déterminants des trajectoires professionnelle et géographique des docteurs à partir des données de trois enquêtes génération (2001, 2004, 2007) du Céreq. Un ensemble de statistiques et l’estimation d’un probit bivarié mettent notamment en évidence un renforcement des mobilités géographiques des docteurs, ainsi que l’importance croissante des publications pour l’accès à l’emploi académique. |
| Date: | 2014–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01085008&r=all |
| By: | Ramboll |
| Abstract: | This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2012, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2011. It is a follow-up to the "Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States", published in September 2013. See the press release (IP/14/1187) and the frequently asked questions (MEMO/14/602). |
| Keywords: | European Union, VAT gap |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0049&r=all |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:310191&r=all |
| By: | Patrizio Bianchi (Università di Ferrara - Facolta di Economia); Sandrine Labory (Università di Ferrara - Facolta di Economia) |
| Abstract: | Resilience means the capacity of a territory to react to, reconstruct, adapt and learn from a shock. The shock can be an economic crisis like the financial crisis started in 2008, or a sudden and unexpected event such as a natural disaster. The earthquakes that affected the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy in May 2012 are a case in point. On the 20th and the 29th of May of that year two earthquakes of medium intensity affected the region, with limited impact on the health of people but dramatic impact on buildings, houses, schools and industrial plants. The literature has stressed the importance of factors such as the magnitude of the natural disaster, the amount of available resources, tangible and intangible capital and endowments in favouring the resilience of places to disasters. The recovery governance has also been shown to be important, in particular democratic participation in the recovery process. We highlight through the analysis of the Emilia Romagna case that recovery governance is indeed a key aspect, and in particular the capacity of the government to rapidly set priorities and favour the cohesion of local communities. For this purpose, we argue that a key level of the recovery governance process is the meso-level of governance, namely the regional one. |
| Date: | 2014–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01166138&r=all |
| By: | Gugle, Elisabeth (University of Victoria); Zodrow, George R. (Rice University and Centre for Business Taxation, Oxford University) |
| Abstract: | Most of the tax competition literature focuses on the provision of local public services to households. However, a number of papers, dating back to Zodrow and Mieszkowski (1986), analyze tax competition when capital taxes are used to finance local public services provided to businesses, examining the conditions under which such services are provided efficiently, under-provided, or overprovided. In addition, several prominent observers have noted that "benefit-related" business taxation is desirable on both efficiency and equity grounds and argued that such taxation should take the form of a tax based on production, such as an origin-based value-added tax. We evaluate this contention in this paper, comparing within the context of a standard model of interjurisdictional competition the relative efficiency properties of these alternative business taxes. Our simulation results suggest that under many circumstances it is more efficient to finance business public services with an origin-based production tax rather than a source-based capital tax. We also relate our results to others found in the existing literature on capital tax competition when public services are provided to businesses. |
| JEL: | H11 H21 H41 H42 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-012&r=all |
| By: | Hans Bækgaard |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201403&r=all |
| By: | Medlock, Kenneth B., III (Rice University); Hartley, Peter (Rice University) |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-023&r=all |
| By: | Noël Bonneuil (EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | The mechanism stating that longer life implies larger investment in human capital, is premised on the view that individual decision-making governs the relationship between longevity and education. This relationship is revisited here from the perspective of optimal period school life expectancy, obtained from the utility maximization of the whole population characterized by its age structure and its age-specific fertility and mortality. Realistic life tables such as model life tables are mandatory, because the age distribution of mortality matters, notably at infant and juvenile ages. Optimal period school life expectancy varies with life expectancy and mortality. Applications to stable population models and then to French historical data from 1806 to nowadays show that the population age structure has indeed modified the relationship between longevity and optimal schooling |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01082317&r=all |
| By: | Alex Bryson; John Forth; Lucy Stokes |
| Abstract: | Alex Bryson and colleagues find that UK employees' job satisfaction is positively associated with workplace financial performance. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well being, job satisfaction, job-related affect, workplace performance |
| JEL: | J28 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:445&r=all |
| By: | Jonas Zangenberg Hansen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM); Peter Stephensen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM); Joachim Borg Kristensen |
| Keywords: | household formation, housing demand, denmark, microsimulation |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201308&r=all |
| By: | Alesina, Alberto F; Giuliano, Paola |
| Abstract: | A growing body of empirical work measuring different types of cultural traits has shown that culture matters for a variety of economic outcomes. This paper focuses on one specific aspect of the relevance of culture: its relationship to institutions. We review work with a theoretical, empirical, and historical bent to assess the presence of a two-way causal effect between culture and institutions. |
| Keywords: | culture; institutions |
| JEL: | P16 Z1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10773&r=all |
| By: | Juan Tomas Sayago-Gomez (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Caleb Stair (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia Univers) |
| Abstract: | This technical document describes the foundations for three different regional economic functions implemented in MATLAB and R. These functions are Location Quotients, Coefficients of Localization, and Shift-Share Analysis. |
| Keywords: | location quotient, coefficient of specialization, shift share methodology |
| JEL: | C6 C63 C65 R10 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2015td01&r=all |
| By: | Alice Evans |
| Abstract: | Economic insecurity has catalysed growing flexibility in gender divisions of labour in Kitwe, Zambia. People's resulting exposure to, as well as collective reflection about, a critical mass of women performing work that was previously presumed to be beyond their capabilities, and valorised because of its association with masculinity, appears to erode gender stereotypes relating to competence and status. It is this weakening of gender beliefs, rather than women's increased access to resources per se, that appears to have directly undermined gender-status inequalities. This article's portrayal of growing gender egalitarianism contrasts with (though does not dispute the empirical claims of) earlier accounts of economic crisis in Zambia, which emphasised women's increased burdens. Some domains, such as unpaid care work, continue to be marked by persistent inequalities; however, drawing on ethnographic research (comprising life history narratives, group interviews and observation), it is argued that this is not necessarily an indicator of women's low status generally. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:59192&r=all |
| By: | Deller, Steven C. (University of WI); Brown, Laura (University of WI); Canto, Amber (University of WI) |
| Abstract: | In this exploratory analysis we look for patterns in the relationship between local foods and community health using U.S. nonmetropolitan counties. We take an ecological approach using 2007 Census of Agriculture and "County Health Rankings & Roadmaps" data collected by the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute program at the U.S. county level. In addition to the central question (are higher concentrations of characteristics of local food systems associated with healthier communities) we address the question of health modeling uncertainty by use a Spatial Bayesian Model Averaging (SBMA). As expected, our findings indicate that higher levels of activities associated with local foods are generally associated with higher levels of community health. Two problems with the analysis are (1) challenges around definitions and measurement of local foods and (2) direction of causation is unclear. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:wisagr:571&r=all |
| By: | Gary Taylor (Deparment of Economics South Dakota State University) |
| Date: | 2015–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sda:ibrief:2015553&r=all |
| By: | Egorova, Maria (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Laptev, G. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Krylov, V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Orlova, E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Khabarov, S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work justifies new original theoretical concept of a private management; concludes the possibility of applying the method of legal subordination of private relations; criteria of systematization of legal forms that mediate the processes of market coordination of economic activity are formed; It analyzes the main legal models on which the coordination of economic activities in the economic turnover is based; studied in detail the mechanisms of legal regulation of each of the legal basis of coordination of economic activity; identified shortcomings of the current legislation in this area and identified the main vectors of its possible improvement. |
| Keywords: | private management, private relations, legal forms |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:madd3&r=all |
| By: | Annemieke Tuinstra-Karel |
| Abstract: | Behavioural economics, the interdisciplinary field of research that studies the impact of psychological factors on economic decision making, is a trending topic in policy circles. Annemieke Tuinstra-Karel discusses the implications for competition policy, based on a recent investigation by the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets. |
| Date: | 2014–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380204&r=all |
| By: | Kamidohzono, Sachiko G.; Gómez, Oscar A.; Mine, Yoichi |
| Abstract: | In today’s world, communities and individuals are exposed to old and new threats such as civil wars, terrorism, natural disasters, infectious diseases, economic downturns, climate change and famines. Human security is an idea and an approach developed to address the pressing needs and moral imperatives arising from those insecurities faced by all humankind. The idea urges to secure fundamental freedoms for everyone, i.e., freedom from fear, freedom from want, and freedom to live in dignity, by combining top-down protection and bottom-up empowerment. While the importance of such an idea has been increasingly discussed since its emergence in the mid-1990s, the ways to operationalize it in practice remain a contested matter. In particular, the practice of Japan’s ODA has received less attention despite Japan being the only government fully committed to the promotion of human security, with ODA as its major tool since 2003. Aiming to inform practice in coming decades, this paper explores the ways how to operationalize the idea, by following the recent history of Japan’s ODA activities related to human security. After briefly recounting the connection between Japan’s ODA and the idea of human security at the policy level, we trace the evolution of its practice, mainly focusing on bilateral contributions by JICA, in the four emblematic areas linked to human security: natural disasters, climate change, infectious diseases and violent conflict. Our examination reveals that Japan’s ODA practice has, in general, been evolving in a way that resonates with the idea of human security. In order to consolidate this trend and to further operationalize human security, however, there still remains much to be done. We have identified three significant directions that can be taken to further operationalize human security: emphasizing prevention, realizing seamless assistance, and caring for the most vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | human security practice , natural disasters , climate change , infectious diseases , violent conflict |
| Date: | 2015–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:94&r=all |
| By: | Guy Meunier (INRA - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Jean-Pierre Ponssard (CNRS, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Francisco Ruiz-Alizeda (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | In industries with large sunk costs, the investment strategy of competing firms depends on the regulatory context. We consider ex-ante industrial policies in which the sunk cost may be either taxed or subsidized, and antitrust policies which could be either pro-competitive (leading to divestiture in case of high ex-post protability) or lenient (allowing mergers in case of low ex-post protability). Through a simple entry game we completely characterize the impact of these policies and examine their associated dynamic trade-offs between the timing of the investment, the ex-post benefits for the consumers, and the possible duplication of fixed costs. We find that merger policies are dominated by ex-ante industrial policies, whereas the latter are dominated by divestiture policies only under very special circumstances. |
| Date: | 2015–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01117091&r=all |
| By: | NISHIMURA, Takeshi; OKADA, Akira; SHIRATA, Yasuhiro |
| Abstract: | Group formation is a fundamental activity in human society. Humans often exclude others from a group and divide the group benefit in a fair way only among group members. Such an allocation is called in-group fair. Does natural selection favor an in-group fair allocation? We investigate the evolution of fairness and group formation in a three-person Ultimatum Game (UG) in which the group value depends on its size. In a stochastic model of the frequency-dependent Moran process, natural selection favors the formation of a two-person subgroup in the low mutation limit if its group value exceeds a high proportion (0.7) of that of the largest group. Stochastic evolutionary game theory provides theoretical support to explain the behavior of human subjects in economic experiments of a three-person UG. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2015-06&r=all |
| By: | Ramboll |
| Abstract: | This Study evaluates the current arrangements for movements of excise goods that have been released for consumption (Chapter V of Council Directive 2008/118/EC) and proposes some careful recommendations in order to improve this type of trade. The Study covers intra-EU movements of excisable consignments between traders and distance selling of excise goods to private individuals. Personal purchases by travellers for their own use and transported by the traveller himself, in accordance with Article 32 of the Directive, are excluded from the scope of the study. The Study was prepared on the basis of data collected throughout written questionnaires, on line surveys and interviews with selected Member States administrations, economic operators and consumer organisations. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Community directive, tax on consumption, trade policy, distance selling, indirect tax, report |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0058&r=all |
| By: | David Carey |
| Abstract: | New Zealand generally performs well in terms of economic and social inclusion. It has high employment rates, and education and health-care systems work well for most. However, some New Zealanders are stuck on low incomes and face material deprivation and multiple barriers to economic and social participation. The ranks of those falling behind increased in the wake of the economic reforms in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which succeeded in halting the decline in GDP per capita relative to the OECD average but contributed to large increases in income inequality and poverty that have only been partially reversed since then. These developments have been aggravated by the rising burden of housing costs on low-income households. Māori, Pasifika and low-income households have also experienced slower rates of improvement in many health and education results. NZ governments have made improving outcomes for disadvantaged groups a top priority in recent years. Reforms are being made to facilitate the transition of welfare beneficiaries into work, increase the supply of affordable and social housing and enhance health and education outcomes for disadvantaged groups. These reforms go in the right direction and, in many cases, would be more effective still if complemented by other reforms.<P>Rendre la croissance économique plus inclusive en Nouvelle-Zélande<BR>Dans l’ensemble, la Nouvelle-Zélande obtient de bons résultats en matière d’intégration économique et sociale. Le taux d’emploi est élevé et, globalement, les systèmes d’éducation et de santé fonctionnent correctement. Cependant, la situation reste inchangée pour certains Néo-zélandais à faible revenu qui demeurent confrontés à des difficultés matérielles et à de nombreux obstacles à une pleine participation à la vie économique et sociale. Le nombre de foyers ayant perdu du terrain a augmenté à la suite des réformes économiques de la fin des années 80 et du début des années 90, qui ont certes permis d’arrêter le déclin du PIB par habitant par rapport à la moyenne de l’OCDE, mais au prix d’un creusement marqué des inégalités de revenu et d’une hausse de la pauvreté qui n’ont pas été entièrement corrigés depuis. Dans ce contexte, l’augmentation de la charge des coûts du logement pour les ménages à faible revenu a constitué un facteur aggravant. En outre, les ménages néo-zélandais défavorisés – les pauvres, les Maoris et les Insulaires du Pacifique – ont connu des progrès plus maigres à bien des égards en matière de santé et d’éducation. Ces dernières années, l’amélioration de la situation des groupes défavorisés figurait en tête des priorités des gouvernements néo-zélandais. Des réformes ont été menées à bien pour faciliter la transition vers le monde du travail des bénéficiaires de prestations sociales, pour accroître l’offre de logements sociaux abordables, pour améliorer les retombées positives, en matière de santé et d’éducation, pour les populations défavorisées. Ces réformes, qui vont dans la bonne direction, auraient bien souvent une efficacité plus grande si des réformes complémentaires venaient les compléter. |
| Keywords: | education, housing, income inequality, poverty, health outcomes |
| JEL: | I14 I18 I24 I28 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1256-en&r=all |
| By: | Yoram Amiel; Michele Bernasconi; Frank Cowell; Valentino Dardanoni |
| Abstract: | Is there a trade-off between people’s preference for income equality and income mobility? Testing for the existence of such a trade-off is difficult because mobility is a multifaceted concept. We analyse results from a questionnaire experiment based on simple precise concepts of income inequality and income mobility. We find no direct trade-off in preference between mobility and equality, but an indirect trade-off, applying when more income mobility can only be obtained at the expense of some income inequality. Mobility preference—but not equality preference—appears to be driven by personal experience of mobility. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2014–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:59415&r=all |
| By: | Mason, Nicole M.; Tembo, Solomon T. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:207020&r=all |
| By: | Fabio Pammolli (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies and CERM Foundation - Competitività, Regole, Mercati); Francesco Porcelli (Department of Economics Business School University of Exeters and CERM Foundation - Competitività, Regole, Mercati); Francesco Vidoli (Dipartimento di Istituzioni Pubbliche Economia e Società Università degli Studi di Roma 3 and CERM Foundation - Competitività, Regole, Mercati); Guido Borà (Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche e Cognitive Università degli Studi di Siena and CERM Foundation - Competitività, Regole, Mercati) |
| Abstract: | Il nuovo rapporto SaniRegio fornisce, in linea con le edizioni precedenti, il calcolo della spesa sanitaria corrente standard delle singole Regioni attraverso la stima di una funzione di spesa in cui la distribuzione della popolazione per fasce di età rappresenta il driver principale del fabbisogno standard. Il modello predisposto per SaniRegio3, completamente rivisto rispetto alla prima versione, nonostante presenti gli stessi obiettivi e utilizzi, in gran parte, la stessa base dati delle versioni precedenti, risulta notevolmente ampliato nel ventaglio dei risultati e delle tecniche econometriche impiegate. In SaniRegio3, in particolare, accanto all'analisi della spesa, si considerano per la prima volta in modo esplicito e dettagliato i livelli delle prestazioni erogate (standard e storico), gli input impiegati e quindi il livello di spesa efficiente di ogni sistema regionale. Si è introdotto, inoltre, come nuovo concetto, l'output-gap, ovvero la differenza tra l'output storico e l'output standard misurato con riferimento alla struttura della popolazione residente. Le regioni con output-gap positivo sono quelle che, diversamente dalle regioni con output-gap negativo, riescono a soddisfare meglio la domanda del proprio territorio. Accanto all'output-gap, poi, è stato possibile misurare il livello di spesa attribuibile all'offerta di servizi erogati sopra o sotto lo standard. |
| Keywords: | ssr, federalismo, spesa sanitaria, piani di rientro, riparto fsn, proiezioni, regioni, sostenibilità, demografia, efficientamento spesa |
| JEL: | D60 D61 H50 H51 H70 H75 H77 I10 I11 I18 I30 I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ern:wpaper:01-2015&r=all |
| By: | Christina Atanasova; Evan Gatev Daniel; Daniel Shapiro |
| Abstract: | Small companies have important economic significance as the most dynamic, innovative and risk-taking sector of the economy. So why do small-cap companies offer only limited corporate governance provisions? Christina Atanasova, Evan Gatev, and Daniel Shapiro find that small companies are incentivised to improve governance by being offered the carrot of easier access to equity financing. |
| Date: | 2014–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380200&r=all |
| By: | Tomoya Kazumura; Shigehiro Serizawa |
| Abstract: | Consider the problem of allocating objects to agents and how much they should pay. Each agent has a preference relation over pairs of a set of objects and a payment. Preferences are not necessarily quasi-linear. Non-quasi-linear preferences describe environments where payments influence agents' abilities to utilize objects. This paper is to investigate the possibility of designing efficient and strategy-proof rules in such environments. A preference relation is single demand if an agent wishes to receive at most one object; it is multi demand if whenever an agent receives one object, an additional object makes him better off. We show that if a domain contains all the single demand preferences and at least one multi demand preference relation, and there are more agents than objects, then no rule satisfies efficiency, strategy-proofness, individual rationality, and no subsidy for losers on the domain. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0943&r=all |
| By: | Tran, Tat Thanh; Zikos, Vasileios |
| Abstract: | We study how free trade agreements between countries and international R&D networks between firms emerge endogenously. The government of each country can initiate bilateral free trade agreements to abolish the import tariffs of other countries. Firms can decide whether and with whom to form R&D collaborations. We build a new model of double-layer networks where the network of free trade agreements is formed in the first layer, and the R&D network is formed in the second layer. Consistently with the stylized facts, we find that free trade agreements can promote international R&D collaboration between firms. Private incentives to form free trade agreements are aligned with societal ones. For R&D networks, by contrast, we identify a conflict between private and social incentives. |
| Keywords: | Free trade agreements, R&D collaboration, tariffs, innovation. |
| JEL: | D85 F10 L13 L20 O31 |
| Date: | 2014–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66187&r=all |
| By: | Fu, Chao (University of WI); Wolpin, Kenneth I. (Rice University and University of PA) |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of crime in which the number of police, the crime rate, the arrest rate, the employment rate and the wage rate are joint outcomes of a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. The local government chooses the size of its police force and citizens choose among work, home and crime alternatives. We estimate the model using MSA-level data. We use the estimated model to examine the effects on crime of targeted federal transfers to local governments to increase police. We find that knowledge about unobserved MSA-specific attributes is critical for the optimal allocation of police across MSA's. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-020&r=all |
| By: | Mamipour, Siab; Vaezi Jezeie, Fereshteh |
| Abstract: | Iran Stock Exchange is the most important component of Iran capital market and more attention has been paid to it in recent years. Many factors affect the Iran stock exchange. In this paper, the effects of oil price and gold price on stock market index are investigated and a three regime Markov Switching Vector Error Correction model is used to examine the nonlinear properties model during the period January 2003 to December 2014. The results of the study shows that the relationships between variables can be analyzed in three different status, so that the three regimes, respectively, represents the “great depression”, “mild depression” and “expansion” period. The results of the model show that the impact of oil price on stock returns is negative and significant in all three regimes; this means that with rising oil price, stock market returns are reduced. But the relationship between gold price and stock market returns varies during the period, according to market conditions. It means that positive shock inflicted on the price of gold in the short-run (10 months) leads to reduce the stock returns and in the medium-term and long-run, it leads to increase the stock returns. |
| Keywords: | Stock Market Price, Oil Price, Gold Price, Markov Switching-Vector Error Correction Model (MS-VECM) |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E37 G17 |
| Date: | 2015–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66202&r=all |
| By: | Duttle, Kai |
| Abstract: | This experimental study investigates the interaction of two influential factors of biased probability judgments. Results provide new insights on the preconditions for an application of either the gambler's fallacy or its exact opponent, the hot hand fallacy. The first factor is cognitive ability, measured in a cognitive reflection test. The second one is the level of perceived randomness in the observed outcomes. Probability judgments are found to vary significantly across salience of randomness treatments as well as across subgroups with high or low cognitive abilities. Like in previous research, subjects with higher cognitive skills are more likely to engage the gambler's fallacy, yet only if perception of sequential randomness is low. In a setting where randomness is very salient the exact opposite can be observed. Similarly surprising insights are revealed when controlling for cognitive abilities in the analysis of salience treatments. Past results are only confirmed for a subgroup with lower cognitive skills, while their peers' beliefs are completely opposite. |
| Abstract: | Diese experimentelle Studie untersucht die Interaktion zweier Einflussfaktoren auf fehlerhafte Wahrscheinlichkeitsschätzungen. Die Ergebnisse geben Einblick in die Voraussetzungen für eine Verhaltensanwendung der sogenannten Gambler's Fallacy einerseits, oder aber dem genauen Gegenstück, der Hot Hand Fallacy. Der erste Faktor ist die kognitive Fähigkeit, welche in einem Cognitive Reflection Test gemessen wird. Der zweite ist das Ausmaß der wahrgenommenen Zufälligkeit in den beobachteten Ausgängen. Wahrscheinlichkeitsschätzungen variieren signifikant sowohl über die Zufallswahrnehmungs-Treatments als auch über Gruppen mit guten respektive schlechteren kognitiven Fähigkeiten. Wie in früheren Studien wenden Teilnehmer mit hohen kognitiven Fähigkeiten eher die Gambler's Fallacy an, jedoch ausschließlich bei geringer Wahrnehmung sequentieller Zufälligkeit. Ist diese jedoch sehr offensichtlich, kann das genau gegenteilige Verhalten beobachtet werden. Ähnlich überraschende Ergebnisse bringt eine Analyse der Auswirkungen von Variationen in der Zufallswahrnehmung bei gleichzeitiger Kontrolle des Einflusses kognitiver Fähigkeiten. Ergebnisse bisheriger Forschung können lediglich für eine Gruppe mit schlechteren Fähigkeiten repliziert werden. Die Schätzungen der Teilnehmer mit besseren Fähigkeiten sind komplett gegensätzlich. |
| Keywords: | law of small numbers,gambler's fallacy,hot hand effect,cognitive reflection test |
| JEL: | C91 D84 J24 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:568&r=all |
| By: | Cormac Ó Gráda |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the history of famine in Ireland between c. 1300 and c. 1900. Inevitably, most of its focus is on the two ‘great’ famines of the early 1740s and 1846-52. |
| Keywords: | Famine; Economic history; Ireland |
| JEL: | N N5 O1 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201513&r=all |
| By: | Bruno Palier (CEE - Centre d'études européennes de Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Clément Carbonnier (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS); Michaël Zemmour (CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies) |
| Abstract: | Tax expenditures are widely used by French governments as em-ployment and social policies. Such programmes together amounted to more than 1.3 points of GDP in 2011. Thanks to a systematic review of academic policy evaluations, we assess the efficiency of the different parts of such policies, showing that at least €6 billion is used for policies whose cost is greater than €62,500 per year and job created, and €0.5 billion for policies whose cost is greater than €160,000 per year and job created. We examine the replacement of these tax expenditures by direct public funding for (publicly or pri-vately delivered) "quality" jobs addressing specific social needs. We discuss the conditions under which at least comparable employment performances could be achieved (factoring in the crowding out of privately funded jobs and the properties of created jobs in terms of the service provided or the characteristics of suppliers and consum-ers) as well as any positive economic and social externalities. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01017683&r=all |
| By: | Hartley, Peter (Rice University) |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-027&r=all |
| By: | Christian-Lambert Nguena (REMA - REMA - REMA (Research in Applied Micro and Macro Economy) - REMA - Recherche); Roger Tsafack-Nanfosso (REMA - REMA - REMA (Research in Applied Micro and Macro Economy) - REMA - Recherche) |
| Abstract: | This paper qualitatively and quantitatively assesses the degree of resilience in the financial intermediary sector of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States (CEMAC) to macroeconomic shocks and discusses the relevant policy implications. Using GMM and a battery of estimations techniques, the panel-based investigations broadly show that the sub-region is vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. Lower bank provisions result on the one hand from shortages or decreases in long-term financing, real exchange, GDP per capita growth rate and on the other hand from increases of interest rates. Whereas the change in interest rate increases net income commission, the effect is negative from lower levels of short-term financing. The incidence of changes in interest rates on the interest rate margin of banks is ambiguous. The findings broadly confirm the need to incorporate macroeconomic shocks in financial policy decision making. The paper contributes at the same to the knowledge on stock management in monetary zones and the need to: (1) timely intervene to mitigate potential shocks and; (2) increase control to sustain the credibility of the banking system. |
| Date: | 2014–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01097850&r=all |
| By: | Arthur Gautier (Chaire entrepreneuriat social - Essec Business School); Anne-Claire Pache (Public and Private Policy Department - Essec Business School); Imran Chowdhury (Lubin School of Business - Pace University) |
| Abstract: | In this research project we aim to understand the role of institutional entrepreneurship across multiple levels - field, organization, and micro levels - in the institutionalization of a new professional role within organizations. Specifically, we study the rise of the "corporate philanthropy manager," a position inspired by nonprofit values and goals which developed within large French corporations during the period 1979 to 2011. The process of creating, maintaining and legitimizing this new role - philanthropy as a new business function - is the central focus of our study, and we explore how elements of the nonprofit and for-profit worlds came together in this new role, as well as the role of various actors across multiple levels in influencing this combination. |
| Date: | 2013–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00914824&r=all |
| By: | Amélie Charles (Audencia Recherche - Audencia); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the French jobseeker cycles from January 1997 to March 2015. First, we propose monthly turning point chronologies for the French jobseeker business and acceleration cycles through the non-parametric dating algorithm proposed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and the dating strategy suggested by Proietti (2005). Second, we analyze the main characteristics of these cycles, namely length, depth and shape, that are approximated by their measures of duration, amplitude, and excess, respectively. The chronologies indicate that the jobseekers series is currently in a long expansion phase of the business cycle since February 2008, and in a slowdown phase of the acceleration cycle since September 2014. We observe evidence of asymmetries across the phases of the business cycle in terms of duration and amplitude whereas these measures are rather symmetric for the phases of the acceleration cycle. |
| Date: | 2015–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01160090&r=all |
| By: | Alain Bienaymé (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | La conception de la justice qui prévaut dans les sociétés évolue notamment en fonction de leur niveau de développement et de leur potentiel de croissance. Jusqu’à une époque récente, quand le monde vivait dans l’insouciance des prédations que l’activité économique inflige aux ressources naturelles de la planète, une première conception de la justice dite « commutative » domina, jusque vers la fin du 19° siècle. Dans un contexte de pénurie quasi – générale que symbolise l’expression « tu gagneras ton pain à la sueur de ton front », la liberté d’échanger semblait procurer plus de satisfactions immédiates que les progrès de la production. La logique du donnant – donnant s’illustre dans la formule : « à chacun selon son apport ». Puis, à mesure que les nations s’enrichirent, les injustices ressenties devant une abondance mal répartie, les disparités de revenus, l’inégalité des fortunes ont contribué à faire naître une conception de la justice distributive que résume cette fois la formule : « à chacun selon ses besoins ». La partie de la population qui contribue directement à la production ayant radicalement diminué depuis le 19° siècle, les pouvoirs publics interviennent comme un puissant complément des familles pour venir en aide aux catégories sociales plus faibles. Les transferts de ressources opérés par la voie budgétaire redistribuent plus ou moins largement les revenus primaires en fonction de critères essentiellement politiques. À la suite d’A. Sen, l’analyse de la justice sociale s’est élargie en amont et en aval des revenus monétaires, pour intégrer les « capabilités » qui déterminent l’éventail des choix offerts aux citoyens dans leur vie économique, culturelle, sociale et politique. Cette approche s’impose d’autant plus que notre monde entre dans une époque nouvelle. Il doit faire face à la raréfaction des ressources épuisables, à l’altération des fonctions que l’air, l’eau et la diversité des espèces accomplissent. Ce qui remet certes en cause nos modes de croissance à marches forcées, notre obsession de la croissance et du productivisme. Et toute la difficulté sera de concilier l’aspiration légitime des consommateurs des économies émergentes à rattraper le niveau de vie des économies avancées avec une culture de la sobriété et avec un progrès technique destructeur de nombreux emplois. On tente de définir deux scénarios pour mieux identifier les défis à surmonter, les orientations à prendre dans un esprit de justice sociale sans lequel l’activité économique mondiale de l’avenir ne saurait améliorer le bien-être individuel et collectif de nos sociétés. L’histoire longue livre des leçons utiles pour comprendre la diversité des situations auxquelles les 200 nations du monde sont confrontées aujourd’hui. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01108215&r=all |
| By: | Peter van der Zwan (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands); Jolanda Hessels (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands); Cornelius A. Rietveld (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how a transition from paid employment to self-employment in the labor market influences life satisfaction. Furthermore, we consider the dynamics of work and leisure satisfaction because the balance between work and leisure is an important element of life satisfaction. Fixed-effects regressions using German Socio-Economic Panel data (1984-2012) reveal that switching to self-employment benefits life and work satisfaction. The effects on life satisfaction are weak and temporary, but they are pronounced and relatively persistent for work satisfaction. However, the gain in work satisfaction is outweighed by a decrease in leisure satisfaction, thus placing work-life balance under severe pressure. |
| Keywords: | Self-employment; Entrepreneurship; Life satisfaction; Work satisfaction; Work-life balance |
| JEL: | I31 J24 J28 J31 L26 |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150099&r=all |
| By: | Yasmine Saleh (Gestion et Société - Gestion et Société, LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | Depuis une trentaine d’années, la prolifération des chartes éthiques dans les entreprises françaises parait comme une tendance aussi bien générale que contestée. En nous basant sur la charte éthique du groupe Lafarge, appelée les « Principes d’Action », nous proposons une étude historique de ce document en nous intéressant au contexte de sa genèse ainsi qu’à son évolution dans le temps à travers ses rééditions successives (six rééditions en vingt-cinq ans). Sur le plan théorique, nous considérons la charte éthique comme instrument de gestion selon les trois dimensions d’Aggéri et Labatut (2010) : dimension matérielle, dimension politique et dimension intellectuelle. Sur le plan méthodologique, nous avons eu recours à une analyse documentaire ainsi qu’à un suivi des évolutions du contenu de la charte par simple technique de codages et décodages. Ce retour aux sources permet d’apporter une nouvelle perspective aux chartes éthiques susceptible de les repenser, aussi bien dans la littérature que dans les entreprises. La participation de l’ensemble des directeurs et des cadres dans la rédaction d’une charte éthique destinée à rester en interne comme instrument d’apprentissage selon un registre explicatif, personnalisé et contextualisé semble présenter une issue de secours afin de permettre aux entreprises, si elles le souhaitent, de préserver réellement ses « valeurs, principes et croyances ». |
| Date: | 2015–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01120172&r=all |
| By: | Larrimore, Jeff (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Mortenson, Jacob (Georgetown University); Splinter, David (Joint Committee on Taxation) |
| Abstract: | We use a large panel of federal income tax data to investigate intragenerational income mobility in the United States. We have two primary objectives. First, we explore the determinants of two-year changes in individual labor earnings and family incomes, such as job or industry changes, marriage, divorce, and geographic mobility. Second, we evaluate how federal income taxes stabilize or destabilize post-tax income changes relative to pre-tax changes. We find a relatively high degree of income mobility, with almost half of workers exhibiting earnings increases or decreases of at least 25 percent, and two-fifths of tax units experiencing income changes of this magnitude. Male and female labor income mobility patterns are remarkably similar, though marriage is associated with earnings gains among men, but is associated with modest earnings declines among women. We also observe that large income gains are most likely among families that add workers - either through marriage or through a second family member entering the workforce. |
| Keywords: | Administrative data; income mobility; post-tax income |
| JEL: | D31 H24 |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-61&r=all |
| By: | Sidartha Gordon (ECON - Département d'économie - Sciences Po); Alessandro Riboni (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | Conflicts are likely less violent if individuals entertain the possibility that the opponent may be right. Why is it so difficult to observe this attitude? In this paper, we consider a game of conflict where two opponents fight in order to impose their preferred policy. Before entering the conflict, one opponent (the agent) trusts the information received by his principal. The principal wants to a↵ect the agent's e↵ort, but he also cares that the agent selects the correct policy and that he has the right incentives to acquire information.We find conditions under which the principal induces hawkish attitudes in the agent. As a result, the agent has no doubts about the optimality of his preferred policy, conflicts are violent and bad decisions are sometimes made. Under some other conditions, the agent adopts dovish attitudes of systematic doubt and conflicts are less violent. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01073538&r=all |
| By: | Ramboll, The Evaluation Partnership and Europe Economics |
| Abstract: | The present study is motivated by the Commission’s assessment of the current VAT rates structure and by the need to understand: the extent to which publications delivered on physical means of support and in electronic format should be considered as substitutable products; the impact their current VAT rate differentiation has on the market; and the potential impact of any changes in VAT in order to reduce such rate differentials. |
| Keywords: | European Union, taxation, electronic publications, VAT reduced rate |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0057&r=all |
| By: | Mathieu Bunel (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS); Yannick L'Horty (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS); Pascale Petit (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This study’s novelty lies in the experimental measuring of place of residence effects derived from a multi-level protocol that allows one to discern the effects at different levels of spatial aggregation: large administrative units (the "département" in France), municipalities, and neighbourhoods. This protocol was applied to two administrative units (Seine-Saint-Denis and 3 the city of Paris) in the Paris region, which are geographically close but quite different in terms of socio-economic status, in order to compare the effects associated with three types of neighbourhoods: favoured areas, intermediate reputation areas , and disadvantaged areas. |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01100287&r=all |
| By: | Yoichi Arai (GRIPS); |
| Abstract: | We propose a generalized version of the RESET test for linearity in regressions with I(1) processes against various nonlinear alternatives and no cointegration. The proposed test statistic for linearity is given by the Wald statistic and its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis is shown to be a X^2 distribution with a "leads and lags" estimation technique. We show that the test is consistent against a class of nonlinear alternatives and no cointegration. Finite-sample simulations show that the empirical size is close to the nominal one and the test succeeds in detecting both nonlinearity and no cointegration. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:15-11&r=all |
| By: | Hartley, Peter R. (Rice University and University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Long-term contracts between exporters and importers of LNG increase the debt capacity of large, long-lived, capital investments by reducing cash flow variability. However, long-term contracts also may limit the ability of the contracting parties to take advantage of profitable ephemeral trading opportunities. After developing a model that illustrates these trade-offs, we argue that increased LNG market liquidity is likely to encourage much greater volume and destination flexibility in contracts and increased reliance on short-term and spot market trades. These changes would, in turn, reinforce the initial increase in market liquidity. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-022&r=all |
| By: | Andreella, Claudia; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese; Westphal, Matthias |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of health in the very long run. Using a unique purpose-built administrative dataset on individuals born in Sweden between 1930-34 and their parents, we study the intergenerational transmission (IGT) of health and the impact of previous generations' health shocks on socioeconomic outcomes. Our results provide strong evidence in favour of IGT of health, in particular for males. In contrast to the existing literature that focuses on early life health outcomes, our paper shows that the effect on later-life mortality might be even more relevant. However, the story appears to be complex and multi-faceted: the IGT exhibits an inverted socioeconomic gradient, and the impact on socioeconomic outcomes is often very different from the effect on health. |
| Abstract: | In diesem Paper wird die Übertragung von Gesundheit zwischen Generationen untersucht, mit Berücksichtigung ihrer möglichen Auswirkungen über den gesamten Lebensverlauf. Im Gegensatz zur bisherigen Literatur, die sich auf die Auswirkungen in den ersten Lebensjahren konzentriert, zeigt dieses Paper, dass die langfristigen Effekte gegebenenfalls noch wichtiger sind. Als Datenbasis dient eine auf diesen Zweck abgestimmte Erhebung administrativer Einträge aus schwedischen Gemeinderegistern bestehend aus den Geburtskohorten 1930-34, die die Kindergeneration bilden. Hiermit analysieren wir die Übertragbarkeit von Gesundheit über zwei Generationen, denn die Daten erlauben es, auch die Elterngeneration zu identifizieren. Um diese Übertragbarkeit von anderen Störgrößen zu isolieren, werden Gesundheitsschocks der Müttergeneration benutzt. Untersucht wird der Einfluss dieser Schocks auf verschiedene Ergebnisgrößen der Kindergeneration: einerseits auf Mortalität und ihre Ursachen über den nahezu gesamten Lebensverlauf, andererseits auf Bildung und das Arbeitsangebot als sozioökonomische Größen. Die Ergebnisse weisen eindeutig nach, dass intergenerationale Übertragbarkeit vorliegt; dies gilt insbesondere und verstärkt für Männer. Allerdings deuten die Resultate auch darauf hin, dass die Übertragungskanäle über sozioökonomische Gruppen hinweg komplex und vielschichtig sind und auch mit Unterschieden im Gesundheits- und Ernährungsverhalten interagieren könnten. |
| Keywords: | early environment,intergenerational transmission,Barker hypothesis,maternal health,infant health,socioeconomic status |
| JEL: | I12 J13 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:571&r=all |
| By: | Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | Several commentators have argued that vocational education provides a smoother school to work transition than academic education. In the long - run, however, the skills it provides depreciate faster and individuals with this type of education are less capable of adapting to technical change. Because of this, its short – term advantages trade off with expected long-term disadvantages in terms of employment, wages or both. Using two UK cohort studies, that allow us to follow individuals for at least 16 years in the labour market, we investigate whether this view has empirical support. For employment, our results indicate that the initial advantage associated to vocational education declines over time, without turning however into a disadvantage at later ages. For real net wages, the picture is more nuanced, with results that vary by cohort and educational level. Overall, our evidence suggests that vocational education is associated to lower expected long-term utility only for the younger cohort with higher (post-secondary) education. We further distinguish between dominant and non-dominant vocational education to account for the different bundles of skills held by individuals, and find that those with a more balanced bundle tend to have higher expected long-term earnings. |
| Keywords: | vocational, academic education, UK |
| JEL: | J31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9275&r=all |
| By: | Teresa Romano |
| Abstract: | Since worldwide concerns about climate change were made official by the Kyoto Protocol at the end of 1997, renewable energy sources (RES) have been receiving increasingly more attention by policy makers. Teresa Romano investigates. |
| Date: | 2014–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380205&r=all |
| By: | Cherrie Bucknor |
| Abstract: | Young blacks in America have had significant improvements in educational attainment since the early 1980s. They are completing high school and college at higher rates than in the past, which has helped to mitigate some of the negative employment effects of past recessions. However, wages for young blacks have declined since the late 1970s, with rates for black men in particular decreasing significantly—even for those with college degrees. The wage data also continue to show that young blacks have been hit harder than whites during the recent recession and incomplete recovery. |
| Keywords: | black, wages, education, pay, wages, wage growth, inequality, whites |
| JEL: | J J1 J15 J11 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2015-18&r=all |
| By: | Stephan E. Maurer; Andrei V. Potlogea |
| Abstract: | Stephan Maurer and Andrei Potlogea explore whether oil-dominated economies are naturally biased against women's labour market participation. |
| Keywords: | Oil, structural transformation, female labor force, participation, gender pay gap |
| JEL: | R1 N5 O1 J1 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:443&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Ahammer; G. Thomas Horvath; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of income on mortality in Austria using administrative social security data. To tackle potential endogeneity concerns arising in this context, we estimate time-invariant firm-specific wage components and use them as instruments for actual wages. While we do find quantitatively small yet statistically significant effects in our naïve least squares estimations, IV regressions reveal a robust zero-effect of income on ten-year death rates for prime-age workers, both in terms of coefficient magnitude and statistical significance. These results are robust to a number of different sample specifications and both linear and non-linear estimation methods. |
| Keywords: | Income, mortality, wage decomposition. |
| JEL: | J14 J31 I10 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:cdlwps:wp1505&r=all |
| By: | Corentin Girard (UPV - Universitat Politecnica de Valencia [Espagne] - Universitat Politécnica de Valencia); Jean-Daniel Rinaudo (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Manuel Pulido-Velazquez (UPV - Universitat Politecnica de Valencia [Espagne] - Universitat Politécnica de Valencia); Yvan Caballero (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) |
| Abstract: | Shaping global change adaptation strategy in water resource systems requires an interdisciplinary approach to deal with the multiple dimensions of the problem. The modelling framework presented integrates climate, economic, agronomic and hydrological scenarios to design a programme of adaptation measures at the river basin scale. Future demand scenarios, combined with a down-scaled climate scenario, provide the basis to estimate the demand and water resources in 2030. A least-cost river basin optimisation model is then applied to select adaptation measures ensuring that environmental and supply management goals are achieved. In the Orb river basin (France), the least-cost portfolio selected suggests mixing demand and supply side measures to adapt to global change. Trade-offs among the cost of the programme of measures, the deficit in agricultural water supply and the level of environmental flows are investigated. The challenges to implement such interdisciplinary approaches in the definition of adaptation strategies are finally discussed. |
| Date: | 2014–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01183833&r=all |
| By: | CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to provide an economic assessment of the impact of the current VAT regimes and the likely effects of alternative VAT regimes in order to assist the Commission in making policy choices. |
| Keywords: | European Union, taxation, transport |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0055&r=all |
| By: | Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter; Martin Halla; Alexandra Posekany; Gerald J. Pruckner; Thomas Schober |
| Abstract: | Prior empirical research on the theoretically proposed interaction between the quantity and the quality of children builds on exogenous variation in family size due to twin births and focuses on human capital outcomes. The typical finding can be described as a statistically nonsignificant two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimate, with substantial standard errors. We regard these conclusions of no empirical support for the quantity-quality trade-off as premature and, therefore, extend the empirical approach in two ways. First, we add health as an additional outcome dimension. Second, we apply a semi-parametric Bayesian IV approach for econometric inference. Our estimation results substantiate the finding of a zero effect: we provide estimates with an increased precision by a factor of approximately twenty-three, for a broader set of outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Quantity-quality model of fertility, family size, human capital, health, semi-parametric Bayesian IV approach. |
| JEL: | J13 C26 C11 I20 J20 I10 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:cdlwps:wp1501&r=all |
| By: | Muehlenbachs, Lucija Anna (Resources for the Future); Staubli, Stefan; Cohen, Mark A. |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new insights into the productivity of teams. Government enforcement agencies often send teams of inspectors instead of a sole inspector to a regulated facility. Yet, determining the impact of teams is problematic due to endogeneity (e.g., the enforcement agency might naturally send larger teams when they expect a more violations). Exploiting exogenous variation in the number of inspectors that are sent to offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, we show that adding an inspector to a team increases the number of sanctions issued as well as the severity of the sanctions.Classification-JEL: Q58, K42 |
| Keywords: | inspections, enforcement, deterrence, offshore oil |
| Date: | 2013–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-36-rev2&r=all |
| By: | Chen, Jia (Peking University); Hou, Kewei (OH State University); Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | Using theories from the behavioral finance literature to predict that investors are attracted to industries with more salient outcomes and that therefore firms in such industries have higher valuations, we find that firms in industries that have high industry-level dispersion of profitability have on average higher market-to-book ratios than firms in low dispersion industries. This positive relation between market-to-book ratios and industry profitability dispersion is economically large and statistically significant and is robust to controlling for variables used to explain firm-level valuation ratios in the literature. Consistent with the mispricing explanation of this finding, we show that firms in less boring industries have a lower implied cost of equity and lower realized returns. We explore alternative explanations for our finding, but find that these alternative explanations cannot explain our results. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-02&r=all |
| By: | T Kruse (Laboratoire de Mathématiques et Modélisation d'Evry - Université d'Evry); A Popier (LMM - Laboratoire Manceau de Mathématiques - UM - Université du Maine) |
| Abstract: | We study the existence of a minimal supersolution for backward stochastic differential equations when the terminal data can take the value +∞ with positive probability. We deal with equations on a general filtered probability space and with generators satisfying a general monotonicity assumption. With this minimal supersolution we then solve an optimal stochastic control problem related to portfolio liquidation problems. We generalize the existing results in three directions: firstly there is no assumption on the underlying filtration (except completeness and quasi-left continuity), secondly we relax the terminal liquidation constraint and finally the time horizon can be random. |
| Date: | 2015–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01139364&r=all |
| By: | Michele Bernini (National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, UK); Alberto Montagnoli (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield) |
| Keywords: | Financial constraints; Credit rationing; Competition; Transition |
| JEL: | D22 E22 G1 P20 A |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2015018&r=all |
| By: | Marion Cochard (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Après une année 2012 en fort ralentissement, les pays d'Europe centrale et orientale ont connu un léger rebond de croissance au premier semestre 2013. Dans le sillage de la zone euro, de l'Allemagne en particulier, les économies de la zone bénéficient d'un regain de demande de l'extérieur et multiplient les signes de reprise. L'amélioration des perspectives de la zone euro à l'horizon de la prévision, de même qu'un assouplissement de la politique budgétaire, devraient sortir progressivement la zone de l'ornière au cours de l'année 2013. Le véritable rebond de croissance devrait se faire sentir à partir de 2014, avec une croissance économique moyenne de la zone à 2,4 %, contre 0,9 % en 2013. L'économie russe, quant à elle, voit sa croissance ralentir depuis la mi-2012, entravée par un risque de surchauffe. Compte tenu de nos prévisions de prix des matières premières, les perspectives de croissance de la Russie baissent à 2,9 % pour 2014 (...). |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01025090&r=all |
| By: | Marco Corazza (Dept. of Economics, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Giacomo Di Tollo (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Giovanni Fasano (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Raffaele Pesenti (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose an efficient initialization of a deterministic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) scheme. PSO has showed to be promising for solving several unconstrained global optimization problems from real applications, where derivatives are unavailable and the evaluation of the objective function tends to be costly. Here we provide a theoretical framework which motivates the use of a deterministic version of PSO, in place of the standard stochastic iteration currently adopted in the literature. Then, in order to test our proposal, we include a numerical experience using a realistic complex portfolio selection problem. This numerical experience includes the application of PSO to a parameter dependent unconstrained reformulation of the considered portfolio selection problem. The parameters are either adaptively updated as in an exact penalty framework, or they are tuned by the code REVAC. We show that in both these settings our PSO initialization is preferable with respect to the standard proposal from the literature. |
| Keywords: | Deterministic PSO, Global Optimization, Portfolio Selection Problems, Exact Penalty functions. |
| JEL: | G11 C44 C61 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:105&r=all |
| By: | Mairead de Roiste |
| Abstract: | Mairéad de Róiste proposes new ways of assessing the usability of local government websites. |
| Date: | 2014–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380206&r=all |
| By: | Henry Brown (Deparment of Economics South Dakota State University); Matthew Diersen (Deparment of Economics South Dakota State University) |
| Date: | 2015–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sda:ibrief:2015551&r=all |
| By: | Karlan, Dean (Yale University and Innovations for Poverty Action); Jamison, Julian (US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Innovations for Poverty Action); Zinman, Jonathan (Dartmouch College and Innovations for Poverty Action) |
| Abstract: | Evidence on the effectiveness of financial education and formal savings account access is lacking, particularly for youth. We randomly assign 250 youth clubs to receive either financial education, access to a cheap group account, or both. The financial education treatments increase financial literacy; the account-only treatment does not. Administrative data shows the education plus account treatment increases bank savings relative to account-only. But survey-measured total savings shows roughly equal increases across all treatment arms. Earned income also increases in all treatment arms. We find little evidence that education and account access are strong complements, and some evidence they are substitutes. |
| JEL: | D12 D91 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:132&r=all |
| By: | Jumnianpol, Surangrut; Nuangjamnong, Nithi |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to examine the discursive practice of human security in Thailand both in terms of concept and operationalization. It particularly focuses on the questions of why and how Thai policymakers have imported and embraced the concept of human security in the Thai polity, as well as how they perceive values and challenges related to human security issues. By reviewing the literature and interviewing nine key informants from the government, non-government, and academic sectors, the paper contends that the positions of the Thai state on human security issues are Janus-faced. While seemingly mainstreaming human security issues, both by promoting the discourse abroad and by establishing a human security ministry, there is also a flipside to the process. Apart from the reductionist view of human security simply as social security for vulnerable groups the concept of “human security” is always secondary to ‘state’ or ‘national’ security. As a result, the Thai style of human security contains only a loose substance of the original and human security is still in the dark shadow of state security. Finally, the paper reveals that the discrepancy between the ideals and practices of human security in Thailand is ascribable to the vagueness of the concept in the eyes of policy stakeholders, the gap between policy architects and policy implementers, and the de-politicization of the concept. |
| Date: | 2015–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:102&r=all |
| By: | Castellari, Elena; Moro, Daniele; Platoni, Silvia; Sckokai, Paolo |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the relationship between price dispersion and inflation; we use weekly retail scanner data from 2009 to 2011 to measure price dispersion and inflation for several dairy products. We implement a linear model to investigate the linkage between price dispersion and consumer price indexes. As in the previous literature, we obtain mixed results with respect to the relationship between price dispersion and inflation, and further investigation and theoretical refinement are needed to identify a common pattern. |
| Keywords: | price dispersion, consumer price indexes, food inflation, scanner data, dairy products, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, L11, L66, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aiea15:207268&r=all |
| By: | Okoye, Dozie; Pongou, Roland |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the debate on the effect of European contact on African societies by comparing the long-run economic impacts of the transatlantic slave trade and historical missionary activity. Recognizing that early missionary activity in Africa was unintentionally aided by the preceding slave trade, it proposes an analytical framework in which the effect of the slave trade was partially mediated by missions. Using unique data from Nigeria, we analyze the causal effects of these shocks on schooling attainment, and consequent effects on literacy rates and self-employment. We �find a total negative effect of the transatlantic slave trade on schooling; its negative direct effect outweighs its positive indirect effect through missionary activity. Missionary activity, on the other hand, has a strong positive direct effect which outweighs the total negative effect of the slave trade. Furthermore, individuals whose ancestors were historically exposed to greater missionary activity are more likely to be literate and less likely to be self-employed, consistent with the positive effect of missionary activity on schooling. In contrast, exposure to the slave trade is associated with lower literacy rates and a greater likelihood of being self-employed. Analyzing the mechanisms, we provide evidence suggesting that the persistent effects of these historical shocks are due to intergenerational factors and higher schooling infrastructure in areas that were less exposed to the slave trade or more exposed to missionary activity. Consistent with a simple theory, these persistent effects are larger for women, younger cohorts, rural residents, and migrants. Religion does not appear to be especially important, and the �findings rule out an explanation based on simple changes in tastes for schooling. |
| Keywords: | European contact, Africa, Slave Trade, Missions, Development, Education, Nigeria |
| JEL: | I20 N30 N37 N47 O10 O15 Z12 |
| Date: | 2015–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66221&r=all |
| By: | Paul Hubert (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | We aim at investigating how two different types of central bank communication affect the private inflation expectations formation process. The effects of ECB inflation projections and Governing Council members’ speeches on private inflation forecasts are identified through an Instrumental-Variables estimation using a Principal Component Analysis to generate valid instruments. We find that ECB projections have an effect on private current-year forecasts, while ECB speeches and the ECB rate impact next-year forecasts. When both communication types are interacted and go in the same direction, the inflation outlook signal tends to outweigh the policy path signal conveyed to private agents (and vice-versa). |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01098464&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Eickelpasch; Georg Hirte; Andreas Stephan |
| Abstract: | Our study provides evidence for firms' evaluation of location quality. We use a 2004 survey of 6,000 East German firms that contained questions on the importance and assessment of 15 different location factors ranging from closeness to customers and suppliers, transport infrastructure, and proximity to research institutions and universities, as well as questions about the local financial institutions and region's “image”. The results show (1) a great deal of heterogeneity in terms of which firm- or regional-level characteristics are important in the evaluation of a specific location factor, (2) that the model's explanatory power is, overall, low and thus neither location characteristics nor internal factors are fully reflected in the perceptions, (3) that a firm's business situation and whether a location factor is considered important have explanatory power for perception. One policy-relevant conclusion that we derive from these findings is that location policy should consider firms' perception of a specific location in addition to improving the actual attributes of that location. |
| Keywords: | Location Factors, Multi-Equation System, Perception Bias, Survey Data |
| JEL: | R3 R12 L2 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1497&r=all |
| By: | Lauren Murphy; Jean Knab |
| Abstract: | This brief for researchers planning or implementing an evaluation of a teen pregnancy prevention program provides an overview of the HHS Teen Pregnancy Prevention Evidence Review. |
| Keywords: | Systematic Review, Pregnancy Prevention, Study Quality |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:9845466041d44038972063731ca36e7f&r=all |
| By: | Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | The current research provides a test framework to understand whether and to what extent increasing public transit use and accessibility by transit affect health. To this end, the effect of transit mode share and accessibility by transit on general health, body mass index, and height are investigated, while controlling for socioeconomic, demographic, and physical activity factors. The coefficient-p-value-sample-size chart is created and effect size analysis are conducted to explore whether the transit use is practically significant. Building on the results of the analysis, we found that the transit mode share and accessibility by transit are not practically significant, and the power of large-sample misrepresents the effect of transit on public health. The results, also, highlight the importance of data and variable selection by portraying a significant correlation between transit use and height in a multivariate regression analysis. What becomes clear from this study is that in spite of the mushrooming interdisciplinary studies in the nexus of transportation and health arena, researchers often propose short- and long-term policies blindly, while failing to report the inherent explanatory power of variables. We show that there is a thin line between false positive and true negative results. From the weakness of p-values perspective, further, we strove to alert both researchers and practitioners to the dangerous pitfall deriving from the power of large- samples. Building the results on just significance and sign of the parameter of interest is worthless, unless the magnitude of effect size is carefully quantified post analysis. |
| Keywords: | Public transit; BRFSS data; ACS data; Accessibility to jobs; p-hacking |
| JEL: | D12 I12 B23 C13 C18 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:transitmakesyoushort&r=all |
| By: | Juan Tomas Sayago-Gomez (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Gianfranco Piras (School of Business and Economics, Catholic University of America); Donald Lacombe (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of the Appalachian Regional Commission’s investments on its members counties over almost fifty years. We apply different propensity score methods to find the most appropriate matching and to identify the effect of policy implementation in the most accurate way possible. The general evidence is that counties that received ARC funding had higher per-capita income growth compared to the control counties. Per-capita income growth rate in ARC counties grew an average of 5.5 percent over the entire study time period compared to the control counties. Employment grew significantly faster in ARC counties compared to the control counties for most of the study period. The average difference in growth rates between the counties that obtained ARC investments and those matched counties that did not receive ARC investments was approximately 4.2 percent. |
| Keywords: | Quasi Experimental Methods, Matching Algorithms, Appalachian Regional Commission, Regional Economic Development |
| JEL: | O1 O18 C00 C01 |
| Date: | 2015–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2015wp06&r=all |
| By: | Natalia Ramondo; Veronica Rappoport; Kim J. Ruhl |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data, we document two new facts regarding intrafirm trade and the activities of the foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational corporations. First, intrafirm trade is concentrated among a small number of large affiliates within large multinational corporations; the median affiliate ships nothing to the rest of the corporation. Second, we find that the input-output coefficient linking the parent’s and affiliate’s industries of operation—a characteristic commonly associated with production fragmentation— is not related to a corresponding intrafirm flow of goods. |
| JEL: | F0 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21472&r=all |
| By: | Hartley, Peter R. (Rice University) |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-028&r=all |
| By: | Tjasa Bjedov (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon, Université de Fribourg, Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales - Université de Fribourg); Simon Lapointe (Université de Fribourg, Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales - Université de Fribourg); Thierry Madiès (Université de Fribourg, Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales - Université de Fribourg) |
| Abstract: | The impact of the fragmentation of executive and legislative bodies on the level and composition of government expenditure is a political feature that attracted considerable attention from economists. However, previous authors have abstracted from two important concepts : ideology and intra-party politics. In this paper, we explicitly account for these two phenomenons, and make two main contributions. First, we show that both intra-party and interparty ideological dispersion matters in the level of public spending. Therefore, it is incorrect to consider parties as monolithic entities. We also show that ideological dispersion matters especially for current expenditures, and not so much for investment expenditures. To do so, we construct a panel database (2003 to 2011) including data from a survey that quantifies the policy preferences of individual party members that were candidates to federal elections in Switzerland. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01098755&r=all |
| By: | Simone Farinelli; Luisa Tibiletti |
| Abstract: | Hydro storage system optimization is becoming one of the most challenging task in Energy Finance. Following the Blomvall and Lindberg (2002) interior point model, we set up a stochastic multiperiod optimization procedure by means of a "bushy" recombining tree that provides fast computational results. Inequality constraints are packed into the objective function by the logarithmic barrier approach and the utility function is approximated by its second order Taylor polynomial. The optimal solution for the original problem is obtained as a diagonal sequence where the first diagonal dimension is the parameter controlling the logarithmic penalty and the second is the parameter for the Newton step in the construction of the approximated solution. Optimimal intraday electricity trading and water values for hydroassets are computed. The algorithm is implemented in Mathematica. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.05837&r=all |
| By: | Merlo, Antonio (Rice University); Tang, Xun (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | We study identification and estimation of a structural model of bargaining with optimism where players have heterogeneous beliefs about the final resolution of a dispute if they fail to reach an agreement. We show the distribution of the players' beliefs and the stochastic bargaining surplus are nonparametrically identified from the probability of reaching an agreement and the distribution of transfers in the final resolution of the dispute. We use a Maximum Simulated Likelihood approach to estimate the beliefs of doctors and patients in medical malpractice disputes in Florida during the 1980s and 1990s. We find strong evidence that beliefs for both parties vary with the severity of the injury and the qualification of the doctor named in the lawsuit, even though these characteristics are statistically insignificant in explaining whether the court rules in favor of the plaintiff or of the defendant. We also quantify the reduction in settlement amounts that would result from the introduction of a (counterfactual) policy that imposes caps on the total compensation for plaintiffs. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:15-005&r=all |
| By: | Jean Imbs (Paris School of Economics); Basile Grassi (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Why do risky sectors grow fast? Because they have good ideas. In an idea flow growth model that nests the granular hypothesis (Gabaix 2011), we show that the fatness of the firm size distribution is positively related to both growth and volatility. A fat tailed distribution enhances the diffusion of ideas and increases growth in the long run. At the same time, a fat tail reduces the extent to which firm-level disturbances average out, and thus increases volatility. We show these correlations find support in US firm-level data: on average, sectors with fat tails grow fast and display high volatility. Interestingly, the relation between sector-level tail and volatility also holds in the short run, within sector. In the US, the dispersion in estimated tails can explain about 40% of the link between growth and volatility. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:449&r=all |
| By: | Anna Gerke (Audencia Recherche - Audencia) |
| Abstract: | This article addresses three main questions: what kind of interorganizational linkages exist in sport industry clusters, how do they develop over time, and what are the motivations for creating or joining them. Different types of interorganizational linkages are identified according to the number of partners involved, the formalized nature of linkages, and the type of organizations involved. A multiple case study approach is adopted. The empirical context are two sport industry clusters in sailing (France and New Zealand). Results show that interorganizational relationships tend to be formalized, while interorganizational networks tend to be informal. A circular development process of different types of linkages was detected. Reciprocity is the most prevalent motive for the development of all types of linkages. |
| Date: | 2015–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01167403&r=all |
| By: | Lamichhane, Kamal; Watanabe, Takayuki |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effect of gender on returns to the investment in education for men and women with disabilities in Metro Manila of the Philippines. By using a unique dataset of persons with hearing, physical and visual impairments, we employ three methodological strategies on earning functions, including continuous and discontinuous functions and quantile regression to reveal the effects of gender within disabilities. Our estimation suggests that women with disabilities face several disadvantages in the labor markets of the Philippines where gender equality in general is observed for women without disabilities. After controlling for a sample selection to account for endogenous labor participation, as well as endogeneity of schooling decisions, the estimated rate of returns to education is very high, ranging from 24.9 to 38.4%. However, when classifying each disability dummy variable for each gender, the effect of double disadvantage (gender and disability) is observable. Additionally, checking the possibility of nonlinear schooling returns, we also find that the effect of disability for women is more severe than for their male counterparts. From these findings, we cannot reject the possibility that obtaining a diploma serves signaling as their ability level for women with disabilities. |
| Keywords: | disability , gender , returns to education , labor market participation , earning functions , Philippines |
| Date: | 2015–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:103&r=all |
| By: | Schlicht, Ekkehart |
| Abstract: | This note proposes a growth model that is derived from the standard Solow growth model by replacing the neoclassical production function with Kaldor’s technical progress function while maintaining a marginalist theory of factor prices in the spirit suggested by von Weizsäcker (1966, 1966b). The hybrid model so obtained accounts for balanced growth in a way that appears less arbitrary than the Solow model, especially because it directly accounts for Harrod neutral technical change, without any need for further assumptions. |
| Keywords: | directed technical change; directed technological change; bias in innovation; technical progress function; neoclassical production function; Harrod neutrality; Hicks neutrality; Cambridge theory of distribution; marginal productivity theory; Kaldor; Kennedy; von Weizsäcker; Solow model |
| JEL: | O30 O40 E12 E13 E25 B59 B31 |
| Date: | 2015–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:25169&r=all |
| By: | Adam, Tim R. (Humboldt University of Berlin); Fernando, Chitru S. (University of OK); Salas, Jesus M. (Lehigh University) |
| Abstract: | The widespread practice of managers speculating by incorporating their market views into firms' hedging programs ("selective hedging") remains a puzzle. Using a 10-year sample of North American gold mining firms, we find no evidence that selective hedging is more prevalent among firms that are believed to possess an information advantage. In contrast, we find strong evidence that selective hedging is more prevalent among financially constrained firms, suggesting that this practice is driven by asset substitution motives. We detect weak relationships between selective hedging and some corporate governance measures but find no evidence of a link between selective hedging and managerial compensation. |
| JEL: | G11 G14 G32 G39 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-07&r=all |
| By: | Yannick Lemarchand (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | L’analyse d’une relation d’affaires, de plus d’une dizaine d’années, entre deux grandes maisons de négoce de Nantes et de Bordeaux, à partir du compte courant ouvert à la seconde par la première, permet d’appréhender de manière approfondie le rôle joué par la comptabilité dans les pratiques du crédit marchand et dans l’articulation monnaie scripturale – monnaie fiduciaire. La comptabilité est l’un des artefacts essentiels à la mise œuvre du crédit. Inscription du crédit et moyen de preuve de son existence, elle est aussi instrument de crédit et moyen de paiement. Le compte courant ouvert à un partenaire rend compte de façon continue du crédit accordé à (ou par) ce partenaire et des compensations qui s’opèrent au fur et à mesure des livraisons réciproques. Il est de ce fait le siège du règlement scriptural, le jeu d’écritures réalisant le paiement d’une dette par une créance. Mais la comptabilité permet aussi d’assurer le suivi des titres de crédit émis ou reçus : la monnaie fiduciaire ; le tout en liaison avec les diverses opérations réalisées. Cette étude micro-historique en livre une illustration qui, au-delà des caractéristiques propres à cette relation — nature et rythmes des échanges et donc du crédit —, conduit à des observations de portée plus générale relativement au crédit marchand. Elle met également en lumière le rôle de la comptabilité dans la construction et la pérennisation de la relation de crédit : l’artefact comptable n’est pas que le témoin passif de cette relation, il en est acteur par le biais des rituels de redditions de comptes. Née de la pratique du crédit marchand, la comptabilité a directement participé à son expansion. |
| Date: | 2015–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01116380&r=all |
| By: | Amélie Charles (Audencia Recherche - Audencia); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes); Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'économie théorique et appliquée - CNRS - Université Nancy II - Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US business cycles for the 1790-1928 period using the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constructed by Johnson and Williamson (2008). The resulting chronology alters more than 50% percent of the peaks and troughs identified by the NBER and Davis (2006)'s chronologies, especially during the antebellum period, and removes those cycles long considered the most questionable, as growth or industrial cycles. An important result of the new chronology is the lack of discernible differences in the frequency and duration of US business cycles among the antebellum and postbellum periods. We also find that the average frequency and duration of contractions are less important than those of expansions. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01122519&r=all |
| By: | Prabir C. Bhattacharya |
| Abstract: | The paper addresses the question of optimal development of a developing economy. The framework presented, it is believed, can be of help in thinking about policies relating, inter alia, to population growth, inter-sectoral migration, agriculture-industry relationship, wages in different sectors, and income distribution in an inter-connected way in the context of optimal development of an economy with an informal sector. |
| JEL: | C02 C61 O11 O17 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1504&r=all |
| By: | Lederman,Daniel; Olarreaga,Marcelo; Zavala,Lucas |
| Abstract: | Surveys of export promotion agencies suggest that that they tend to focus on helping firms become exporters as a means to stimulate aggregate export growth. But the existing empirical evidence has paid little attention to the role of export promotion agencies in helping entry into exporting. This paper fills this gap with a panel of exporting and non-exporting firms from seven Latin American countries during the period 2006-2010. The results suggest that export promotion encourages exports mainly by helping firms enter into and survive in export markets. The impact on the intensive margin of exporting firms is not robust. This finding is consistent with export promotion helping reduce fixed rather than variable costs of exporting, which is to be expected if export promotion agencies help correct for market failures associated with information externalities. |
| Keywords: | E-Business,Tax Law,Export Competitiveness,Microfinance,Airports and Air Services |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7400&r=all |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to highlight key limitations of The Economist magazine?s Big Mac Index (BMI). The Economist markets the BMI as a tool to determine valuation of currencies. This paper shows that the BMI is a misleading measure of currency valuation for economies whose markets are structurally different from the benchmark currency countries. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:310231&r=all |
| By: | Eric Weese (Department of Economics, Yale University); Masayoshi Hayashi (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Akihiko Takahashi (College of Economics, Aoyama Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | Does the exercise of the right of self-determination lead to inefficiency? This paper considers a set of centrally planned municipal mergers during the Meiji period, with data from Gifu prefecture. The observed merger pattern can be explained as a social optimum based on a very simple individual utility function. If individual villages had been allowed to choose their merger partners, counterfactual simulations show that the core is always non-empty, but core partitions contain about 80% more (postmerger) municipalities than the social optimum. Simulations are possible because core partitions can be calculated using repeated application of a mixed integer program. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2015cf989&r=all |
| By: | Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Abhijit Sen Gupta (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the different nuances of India's capital account management through empirical analyses as well as descriptive discussions. In particular we study the evolution of the capital control regime in India since 1991, and explore the rationale behind liberalizing certain flows restricting others and the means employed to do so. Increased integration with global financial markets has amplified the complexity of macroeconomic management in India. We analyze the trade-offs faced by Indian policy makers between exchange rate stability, monetary autnomy and capital account opnenness, within the framework of the well-known Impossible Trinity or Trilemma and find that over time India has adopted an intermediate regime balancing the different policy objectives while at the same time accumulating massive international reserves. We also calculate the exchange market pressure (EMP) index in India, and track its evolution over the last couple of decades. We evaluate the extent to which the EMP index has been influenced by major macroeconomic factors and find that a deteriorating trade balance and decline in portfolio equity inflows are associated with a higher EMP while positive changes in stock market returns lower the EMP. |
| Keywords: | Capital controls, Macroeconomic trilemma, Financial integration, Foreign exchange intervention, Sterilization, Exchange market pressure, Reserve adequacy |
| JEL: | E4 E5 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2015-024&r=all |
| By: | Robert Cassen; Sandra McNally; Anna Vignoles |
| Abstract: | A new book by Sandra McNally and colleagues surveys the evidence on which policies and practices are working in UK schools. |
| Keywords: | education, school resources, education funding, government policy |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:446&r=all |
| By: | Gilles Saint-Paul (New York University Abu Dhabi - Abu Dhabi, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study active labor market policies (ALMP) in a matching model. ALMPs are modelled as a subsidy to job search. Workers di¤er in their productivity, and search takes place along an extensive margin. An additional job seeker a¤ects the quality of unemployed workers. As a result, the Hosios conditions are no longer valid. To replicate the optimum the worker share in bargaining must exceed the Hosios level, and one must impose a tax on job search activity. The coalition in favor of ALMP is also studied. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-01084570&r=all |
| By: | Kostas Ifantis; Dimitrios Triantaphyllou; Andreas Kotelis |
| Abstract: | This study is based on the findings of a National Bank of Greece research funding awarded to Kostas Ifantis and Dimitris Triantaphyllou by the Hellenic Observatory of the London School of Economics and Political Science (Research Tender 3-NBG3-2013). The full report including the survey questions and their evaluation can be found on the Hellenic Observatory’s website at this link: http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/r esearch/hellenicObservatory/pdf/Ifantis- Triantafylloy-(PROJECT-REPORT).pdf. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:94&r=all |
| By: | John Deke; Emily Sama-Miller; Alan Hershey |
| Keywords: | RCT, Randomized Controlled Trials, Systematic Evidence Reviews, HomVee, Home Visiting |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:182c57707b464906b26c77513a057508&r=all |
| By: | Caselli, Francesco; Koren, Miklós; Lisicky, Milan; Tenreyro, Silvana |
| Abstract: | A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher GDP volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. We revisit the common wisdom and argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower GDP volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the two mechanisms (sectoral specialization and cross-country diversification) and provide a new answer to the question of whether and how international trade affects economic volatility. |
| Keywords: | diversification; trade; volatility |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10775&r=all |
| By: | Florent Bresson (CERDI, Université d’Auvergne and CNRS, France); Jean-Yves Duclos (CIRPEE, Université Laval and FERDI, Canada); Flaviana Palmisano (Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | A long-lasting scientific and policy debate queries the impact of growth on distribution. A specific branch of the micro-oriented literature, known as ‘pro-poor growth’, seeks in particular to understand the impact of growth on poverty. Much of that literature supposes that the distributional impact should be measured in an anonymous fashion. The income dynamics and mobility impacts of growth are thus ignored. The paper extends this framework in two important manners. First, the paper uses an ‘intertemporal pro-poorness’ formulation that accounts separately for anonymous and mobility growth impacts. Second, the paper’s treatment of mobility encompasses both the benefit of “mobility as equalizer” and the variability cost of poverty transiency. Several decompositions are proposed to measure the importance of each of these impacts of growth on the pro-poorness of distributional changes. The framework is applied to panel data on 23 European countries drawn from the ‘European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions’ (EU-SILC) survey. |
| Keywords: | pro-poorness, income mobility, growth, poverty dynamics. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2015-368&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Fouad El Ouardighi (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study an optimal AK-like model of capital accumulation and growth in the presence of a negative environmental externality in the tradition of Stokey (1998). Both production and consumption activities generate polluting waste. The economy exerts a recycling effort to reduce the stock of waste. Recycling also generates income, which is fully devoted to capital accumulation. The whole problem amounts to choosing the optimal control paths for consumption and recycling to maximize a social welfare function that notably includes the waste stock and disutility from the recycling effort. We provide a mathematical analysis of both the asymptotic behavior of the optimal trajectories and the shape of transition dynamics. Numerical exercises are performed to illustrate the analysis and to highlight some of the economic implications of the model. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01126636&r=all |
| By: | Cécile Perret (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - Université de Savoie) |
| Abstract: | Cet article, illustré par le cas de la Haute-Alsace, envisage le territoire de trois façons : comme un espace de coopération et d'innovation, sous l'angle d'un construit social à la fois support identitaire aux pratiques d'acteurs et producteur d'identité et, enfin, comme un espace de rétroaction. Ces trois façons d'envisager le territoire permettent de mettre en évidence l'émergence d'une approche collaborative du territoire qui s'appuie sur des valeurs et des pratiques sous-tendues par l'histoire de l'Alsace pour fédérer l'ensemble des citoyens autour du projet régional. |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01185752&r=all |
| By: | Frank Wolak |
| Abstract: | Stanford University’s Frank Wolak looks at the pros and cons of Latin-American-style cost-based dispatch and pricing on short-term energy and operating reserve markets. |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380005&r=all |
| By: | Hwang, Jungbin; Sun, Yixiao |
| Abstract: | According to the conventional asymptotic theory, the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator and test perform as least as well as the one-step estimator and test in large samples. The conventional asymptotic theory, as elegant and convenient as it is, completely ignores the estimation uncertainty in the weighting matrix, and as a result it may not reflect finite sample situations well. In this paper, we employ the fixed-smoothing asymptotic theory that accounts for the estimation uncertainty, and compare the performance of the one-step and two-step procedures in this more accurate asymptotic framework. We show the two-step procedure outperforms the one-step procedure only when the benefit of using the optimal weighting matrix outweighs the cost of estimating it. This qualitative message applies to both the asymptotic variance comparison and power comparison of the associated tests. A Monte Carlo study lends support to our asymptotic results. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Asymptotic Efficiency, Asymptotic Mixed Normality, Fixed-smoothing Asymptotics, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust, Increasing-smoothing Asymptotics, Nonstandard Asymptotics, Two-step GMM Estimation |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt58r2z98m&r=all |
| By: | Yonas Alem; Jonathan Colmer |
| Abstract: | When agents are unable to smooth consumption and have distorted beliefs about the likelihood of future income realisations, uncertainty about future states of the world has a direct effect on individual welfare. However, separating the effects of uncertainty from realised events and identifying the welfare effects of uncertainty both present a number of empirical challenges. Combining individual-level panel data from rural and urban Ethiopia with high-resolution meteorological data, we estimate the empirical relevance of uncertainty on objective consumption and subjective well-being. While negative income shocks affect both objective consumption measures and subjective well-being, greater income uncertainty only has an effect on subjective well-being. A one standard deviation change in income uncertainty is equivalent to a one standard deviation change in realised consumption. These results indicate that the welfare gains from further consumption smoothing are substantially greater than estimates based solely on consumption fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Consumption Smoothing, Subjective Well-Being |
| JEL: | D8 O12 I3 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:stieop:59&r=all |
| By: | Yoann Verger (REEDS - REEDS - Centre international de Recherches en Economie écologique, Eco-innovation et ingénierie du Développement Soutenable - UVSQ - Université Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines) |
| Abstract: | References to Sraffa and to the neo-Ricardian school is something quite customary in ecological economics. By looking at contributions in this area since the beginning of ecological economics and at contributions on environmental problem from the neo-Ricardian school, we see that a connection between both school still has to be made. This connection should be articulated around the initial aim of Sraffa: to develop a new paradigm, competing against the neoclassical one. Only then it will be possible to develop a real eco-Sraffian approach able to pursue the analysis of the sustainability of the economic system. This review of the literature is divided in three sections. Section 1 describes the part of the literature engaged in the “valuation of nature” debate; section 2 the works of researchers trying to develop a neo-Ricardian approach of ecological conflicts; and section 3 several works trying to use the neo-Ricardian knowledge in the analysis of physical interdependence between processes, in particular for the assessment of CO2 emissions. In each of these last sections, works are presented in a (more or less) chronological way. |
| Date: | 2015–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01182894&r=all |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | Tunisia's tax system has undergone significant structural reforms over the last several decades. Even so, its structure exhibits some major flaws, shortcomings that spill over to and affect the performance of the overall Tunisian economy. Further, the tax system continues to underperform in some fundamental ways, ways that also affect the rest of the economy. Finally, the structure of the Tunisian tax system has some notable shortcomings. This paper discusses these issues. It presents details of the main taxes, it analyzes several main features of this tax system, and it suggests various specific tax reforms that can be introduced both in the short term and in the longer term. |
| Keywords: | Tunisia, tax reform |
| JEL: | H20 H24 H25 H87 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1515&r=all |
| By: | P. J. Dawkins; J.M. Dixon |
| Abstract: | A major issue for the future of tertiary education is to ensure that Australia continues to expand its investment in skills and capabilities, to enable a future of prosperity which is available to all. This has been the aim of the demand-driven system of higher education. The Federal Government's current proposals for higher education reform include the expansion of the demand-driven system, by bringing sub-degree higher education programs into the subsided system and by bringing non-university higher education providers into the system. At the same time the government has been seeking to achieve budget restraint and as a result proposed to cut the amount of funding per student by an average of 20 per cent, although there is considerable variation across the disciplines. The government has also proposed to uncap fees, so that universities could at least recoup the lost funds due to the cuts in subsidies. The government's proposal for full-fee deregulation in higher education has stalled in the Senate. It has been subjected to criticism from the cross-benchers and from a number of expert commentators that there are serious risks with the proposal including the risk of excessive student fees and excessive debts. We argue that what is required is not full deregulation of fees, or a return to a more regulated model with tight fee regulation and a possible reversion to more regulation of student numbers as well. What is required is a third way; incorporating some degree of price flexibility, and an enhanced equity package, while retaining the demand driven model. This paper, therefore, is concerned with exploring alternative ways of sustaining the demand driven system by allowing some degree of flexibility in student fees, while avoiding excessive fee rises and allowing for some degree of price competition. Consideration is also given to ways in which the equity aspects of the package could be enhanced. Dawkins (2014) argued that three alternative methods should be explored to achieve a degree of fee flexibility: fee caps, loan caps and a "taper model"; whereby government tuition subsidies are reduced according to a taper-rate schedule, when they raise fees above a threshold level. The latter concept is one that is also being proposed by Bruce Chapman (Chapman 2015). Our analysis and consideration of the policy challenge leads us to the conclusion that the most promising way forward is a two-part package incorporating (a) a taper model whereby tuition subsidies are reduced according a progressive taper rate schedule, when fees rise above a threshold level, and (b) an enhanced Higher Education Participation Program (HEPP), incorporating scholarships for all low socioeconomic status background students across the system, and additional support for interventions for reducing the attrition rates of at-risk students. Data has been provided by the Commonwealth Department of Education and Training to assist with this research and the modelling has been undertaken at the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University. |
| Keywords: | higher education, taper scheme, government budget, education subsidies, HECS, deregulation |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I28 H52 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-252&r=all |
| By: | Muehlenbachs, Lucia Anna (Resources for the Future); Spiller, Elisheba; Timmins, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Using data from Pennsylvania and an array of empirical techniques to control for confounding factors, we recover hedonic estimates of property value impacts from nearby shale gas development that vary with water source, well productivity, and visibility. Results indicate large negative impacts on nearby groundwaterdependent homes, while piped-water-dependent homes exhibit smaller positive impacts, suggesting benefits from lease payments. Results have implications for the debate over regulation of shale gas development. |
| Keywords: | shale gas, groundwater, property values, hedonic models, nearest neighbor matching, differences-in-differences, triple differences |
| JEL: | Q32 Q33 Q50 Q53 |
| Date: | 2013–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-39-rev2&r=all |
| By: | Nathalie Greenan (CEE - Centre d'études de l'emploi - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS); Pierre-Jean Messe (CEE - Centre d'études de l'emploi - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS, GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Université du Maine) |
| Abstract: | The main contribution of this paper is to study empirically how the horizon effect and the technological or organisational changes interact to explain the probability of being an internal trainer at the end of career. We use data from a French matched employer-employee survey on Organisational Changes and Computerisation (COI) conducted in 2006. It contains information both on employees’ knowledge transmission practices and employers’ technological or organisational changes. We find that the shorter the horizon of a worker aged 50 and over, the higher is her probability of being an internal trainer, but only in firms that did not experience any changes. In changing firms, we find the same effect provided that the older worker benefited from a training session to update her skills. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01143496&r=all |
| By: | Paul Ormerod; Rickard Nyman; David Tuckett |
| Abstract: | Following the financial crisis of the late 2000s, policy makers have shown considerable interest in monitoring financial stability. Several central banks now publish indices of financial stress, which are essentially based upon market related data. In this paper, we examine the potential for improving the indices by deriving information about emotion shifts in the economy. We report on a new approach, based on the content analysis of very large text databases, and termed directed algorithmic text analysis. The algorithm identifies, very rapidly, shifts through time in the relations between two core emotional groups. The method is robust. The same word-list is used to identify the two emotion groups across different studies. Membership of the words in the lists has been validated in psychological experiments. The words consist of everyday English words with no specific economic meaning. Initial results show promise. An emotion index capturing shifts between the two emotion groups in texts potentially referring to the whole US economy improves the one-quarter ahead consensus forecasts for real GDP growth. More specifically, the same indices are shown to Granger cause both the Cleveland and St Louis Federal Reserve Indices of Financial Stress. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.05357&r=all |
| By: | Michel Alexandre da Silva; Gilberto Tadeu Lima |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to study the interaction between monetary policy and prudential regulation in an agent-based modeling framework. In the model proposed here, firms borrow funds from the banking system in an economy regulated by a central bank. The central bank is responsible for carrying out monetary policy, by setting the interest rate, and prudential regulation, by establishing the banking capital requirement. Different combinations of interest rate and capital requirement rules are evaluated regarding both macroeconomic and financial stability. Several relevant policy implications are drawn from this analysis. First, the implementation of a cyclical capital component as proposed in Basel III, while successful in reducing financial instability when applied alone, loses its efficacy when combined with some interest rate rules. Second, interest rate smoothing is more effective than the other interest rate rules assessed, as it outperforms them concerning financial stability and performs as well as them regarding macroeconomic stability. Finally, there is no long-run tradeoff between monetary and financial stability regarding the sensitiveness of the cyclical capital component to the credit-to-output ratio, as well as the smoothing interest rate parameter |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:394&r=all |
| By: | Dinda, Soumyananda |
| Abstract: | In this 21st century, human civilization faces the toughest challenge to tackle the climate change for sustainable development. Civil society should adopt the climate change and reduce vulnerability for non-declining welfare. This paper reviews major papers on adaptation to climate change and provides an overview on the climate change and developing adaptive mechanism across the globe. Following major important articles this study provides clarity of the concept of adaptation, types of adaptation, measurement of adaptation, determinants of adaptive capacity, and also highlights on limitations and its possible future directions. Finally it concludes. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity, Risk, Sustainable Development, Vulnerability |
| JEL: | O2 Q2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2015–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66259&r=all |
| By: | Céline Antonin (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Christophe Blot (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Christine Rifflart (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Si les grandes banques centrales n'ont eu de cesse depuis 2008 de développer des outils non-conventionnels pour stimuler l'activité économique et soutenir les marchés financiers, la justification du maintien de ces politiques s'est émoussée dans le courant de l'année 2013. Aux États-Unis et au Royaume-Uni, le taux de chômage a atteint le seuil que les banques centrales avaient défini pour justifier la poursuite de leurs achats de titres publics. Dans la zone euro, la normalisation du fonctionnement du marché interbancaire s'accompagne d'une moindre demande de liquidités des banques auprès de la BCE. L'heure est donc à la sortie progressive du quantitative easing. L'actif du bilan de la Réserve fédérale augmente de moins en moins vite depuis janvier 2014. Celui de la Banque d'Angleterre stagne depuis un an. Quant à la BCE, il s'est retourné à la suite notamment du remboursement des anciens prêts accordés aux banques. Cette normalisation des outils ne signifie surtout pas la fin des politiques monétaires accommodantes. La croissance reste insuffisante pour réduire les écarts de production et surtout, le risque particulièrement aigu dans la zone euro de laisser s'installer des tendances déflationnistes, nécessite que les banques centrales continuent à stimuler les économies. En effet, en renchérissant les taux réels, l'entrée dans la déflation rendrait la politique monétaire encore plus inopérante. C'est donc le message que les banques centrales veulent faire passer, notamment la BCE qui n'exclut pas, si besoin était, la mise en place d'un nouveau programme d'assouplissement quantitatif. Aussi aucun resserrement des taux directeurs n'est prévu à l'horizon de notre prévision. Les taux longs n'ont que peu réagi à cette inflexion de tendance. Néanmoins, malgré les bas taux d'intérêt et les conditions de crédits particulièrement attractives, la demande n'est pas au rendez-vous. L'heure est encore au désendettement tant du côté des entreprises dans la zone euro que des ménages aux États-Unis. Les politiques monétaires peinent à mordre sur l'activité, d'où la nécessité pour elles de rester actives. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00994709&r=all |
| By: | Ivelin Iliev Rizov (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Emilio Rodríguez Cerezo (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | The present technical report deals with coexistence issues of genetically modified (GM) soybean cultivation with non-GM soybean and honey production in the EU. The Technical Working Group (TWG) for Soybean of the European Coexistence Bureau (ECoB) analysed the possible sources for potential GM cross-pollination and admixture and agreed on the best practices for coexistence. The terms of reference for this review are presented in Section 1. The scope of the Best Practice Document is coexistence in soybean crop production in the EU. It includes the coexistence between GM soybean cultivation and honey production but excludes coexistence in seed production. The ECoB TWG for Soybean conducted two meetings, one in May 2013 and one in February 2014 examining the state-of-art knowledge from scientific literature, research projects and reports, as well as empirical evidence provided by already existing segregation systems in soybean production. The information reviewed amounts to a total of 123 references listed in this report. The report summarises the review of available information on adventitious GM presence in soybean crop production covering seed impurities, cultivation, outcrossing to non-GM soybeans, and volunteers. The process management during sowing, harvesting, transportation, drying and storage on farm is also reviewed. Additionally the report analyses existing studies dealing with the presence of soybean pollen in honey. Finally, the TWG for Soybean reviewed the state of the art for the detection and identification of traces of GM soybean material in non-GM soybean harvests and honey. Based on this review, the members of the TWG Soybean submitted proposals for best management practices, which form the basis of the agreed consensus recommendations presented in Section 8. |
| Keywords: | Inovation, Biotechnology, Coexistence, Genetically Modified Organism (GMOs), Soybean, Best agricultural practices, Agronomy, Policy support, Standatization, Compititivness. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc91097&r=all |
| By: | Wanger, Susanne (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Weigand, Roland (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Zapf, Ines (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "This article presents the IAB working time measurement concept, which determines the hours worked in Germany and their individual components. These statistics are essential for a proper analysis of aggregate labour market trends and cyclical fluctuations. We outline the conceptual and methodological framework of the measurement, which evolves further due to its integration in the system of national accounts and due to innovations to the statistical procedures applied. An overview of single components and their data sources is given, while the resulting time series of hours worked and the volume of work are depicted according to their long run trends, cyclical variation and reaction in the 2008/09 financial and economic crisis." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Arbeitszeitrechnung - Methode, Arbeitszeit, Arbeitsvolumen |
| JEL: | C82 E01 J2 |
| Date: | 2015–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201521&r=all |
| By: | Alfred Duncan |
| Abstract: | Alfred Duncan investigates the Labour Party’s Variable Savings Rate policy, where KiwiSaver contributions would become compulsory, and contribution rates adjusted by the Reserve Bank in conjunction with changes in the Official Cash Rate to achieve Monetary Policy objectives. |
| Date: | 2014–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380202&r=all |
| By: | Florent Venayre (GDI - Gouvernance et Développement Insulaire - Université de la Polynésie Française, LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM]) |
| Abstract: | La réalisation de nouvelles surfaces commerciales au-delà de certains seuils de superficie est depuis longtemps – et bien que la pertinence en soit discutée – soumise à accord préalable des commissions d'urbanisme. Ce processus, basé sur des critères d'aménagement ou d'environnement, ignore traditionnellement les questions économiques, et notamment celle de la création ou du renforcement de positions dominantes locales dans le secteur de la distribution. Toutefois, une récente évolution vers la prise en considération de critères économiques existe depuis novembre 2012 en outre-mer, avec la création de l'article L. 752-6-1 du Code de commerce. Cet article, qui vient de faire l'objet de sa première application pour l'île de Saint-Barthélemy, conduit à d'intéressantes interrogations quant à l'avenir du contrôle ex-ante des opérations d'urbanisme commercial. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01091942&r=all |
| By: | Paul Hubert (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Since Romer and Romer (2000), a large literature has dealt with the relative forecasting performance of Greenbook macroeconomic forecasts of the Federal Reserve. This paper empirically reviews the existing results by comparing the different methods, data and samples used previously. The sample period is extended compared to previous studies and both real-time and final data are considered. We confirm that the Fed has a superior forecasting performance on inflation but not on output. In addition, we show that the longer the horizon, the more pronounced the advantage of Fed on inflation and that this superi- ority seems to decrease but remains prominent in the more recent period. The second objective of this paper is to underline the potential sources of this supe- riority. It appears that it may stem from better information rather than from a better model of the economy. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01087522&r=all |
| By: | Hartley, Peter (Rice University); Medlock, Kenneth, III (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the economic viability of two new energy technologies when implemented in the US Southwest. The first technology of interest is a long distance high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission link between Texas and Southern California that is constructed using a so-called "nanowire" technology. The second technology is grid-connected photovoltaic solar power. We investigate the potential value of these technologies by examining how profitable they would likely have been if they had been available in 2003. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-025&r=all |
| By: | Defever, Fabrice; Fischer, Christian; Suedekum, Jens |
| Abstract: | Headquarters and their specialized component suppliers have a vital interest in establishing long-term collaborations. When formal contracts are not enforceable, such efficiency-enhancing cooperations can be established via informal agreements, but relational contracts have been largely ignored in the literature on the international organization of value chains. In this paper, we develop a dynamic property rights model of global sourcing. A domestic headquarter collaborates with a foreign input supplier and makes two decisions in every period: i) whether to engage in a costly search for a better partner, and ii) whether to make a non-binding offer to overcome hold-up problems. Our key result is that the possibility to switch partners crucially affects the contractual nature of buyer-supplier relationships. In particular, some patient firms do not immediately establish a relational contract, but only when they decide to stop searching and thus launch a long-term collaboration with their supplier. From our model, we develop an instrumental variable estimation strategy that we apply using transaction-level data of fresh Chinese exporters to the US. We obtain empirical evidence in line with the theoretical prediction of a positive causal effect of match durations on relational contracting. |
| Keywords: | firm organization,input sourcing,relational contracts,supplier search,processing trade,China |
| JEL: | D23 L23 F23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:193&r=all |
| By: | Gehde-Trapp, Monika; Gündüz, Yalin; Nasev, Julia |
| Abstract: | Based on individual CDS transactions cleared by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, we show that illiquidity strongly affects credit default swap premiums. We identify the following effects: First, transaction direction affects prices, as buy (sell) orders lead to premium increases (decreases). Second, larger transactions have a higher price impact. This finding stands in stark contrast to corporate bond markets. Third, traders charge higher premiums as a price for liquidity provision, not as compensation for asymmetric information. Fourth, buyside investors pay significantly higher prices than dealers for demanding liquidity. Last, inventory risk seems to matter little in explaining liquidity premiums. |
| Keywords: | CDS,illiquidity,temporary price impact,market power,immediacy,DTCC |
| JEL: | G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1212r2&r=all |
| By: | Martin Ravallion (Georgetown University and NBER, U.S.A.) |
| Abstract: | Traditional assessments of economic growth and progress against poverty put little or no weight on increasing the standard of living of the poorest—raising the floor for permanent consumption above the biological minimum. Yet raising the floor is often emphasized by policy makers, moral philosophers and social choice theorists. To address this deficiency, the paper defines and measures the expected value of the floor as a weighted mean of observed consumptions for the poorest stratum. Using data for the developing world over 1981-2011, the estimated floor is about half the \$1.25 a day poverty line. Economic growth and social policies have delivered only modest progress in raising the floor, despite progress in reducing the number living near the floor. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, consumption floor, Rawls, growth, safety-nets. |
| JEL: | I32 I38 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2015-369&r=all |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Brian Erard (B. Erard & Associates) |
| Abstract: | An enduring problem in the analysis of tax evasion is the difficulty of its measurement. An especially troublesome component of tax evasion arises from informal suppliers, such as self- employed domestic workers, street-side vendors, and moonlighting tradesmen. We develop in this paper a new approach for estimating self-employment earnings of informal suppliers. Our methodology involves using national survey results on self-employment earnings within a carefully selected set of industry categories where informal activities are believed to be concentrated. Then, by comparing these national survey results on self-employment earnings to Internal Revenue Service statistics on the amounts actually reported for tax purposes, it is possible to estimate the extent of noncompliance within the selected industry categories. Our methodology relies on survey respondents being reasonably forthcoming about their earnings, which we are able to confirm through some validation exercises. |
| Keywords: | tax evasion, informal suppliers |
| JEL: | H26 C81 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1517&r=all |
| By: | Nikos Nikiforakis (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Jörg Oechssler (Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Heidelberg - Universität Heidelberg (GERMANY)); Anwar Shah (Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | The power to coerce workers is important for the e¢ cient operation of hierarchically structured organizations. However, this power can also be used by managers to exploit their subordinates for their own benefit. We examine the relationship between the power to coerce and exploitation in a laboratory experiment where a senior and a junior player interact repeatedly for a finite number of periods. We find that senior players try repeatedly to use their power to exploit junior workers. These attempts are successful only when junior workers have incomplete information about how their e¤ort impacts on the earnings of senior players, but not when they have complete information. Evidence from an incentive-compatible questionnaire indicates that the social acceptability of exploitation depends on whether the junior worker can detect she is being exploited. We also show how a history of exploitation affects future interactions. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01098753&r=all |
| By: | Honorati,Maddalena |
| Abstract: | This study uses a randomized experiment to evaluate the impacts of the training and internship program piloted in Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu counties by the Kenya Private Sector Alliance and the Government of Kenya with support from the World Bank?s Kenya Youth Empowerment Project. The program provided three months of classroom-based technical training coupled with three months of internships in private firms to vulnerable youths between ages 15 and 29 years, with vulnerable being defined as those out of school and/or with no permanent job. The analysis in this paper is based on survey data collected before the program started (July 2012) and 15 months after the program ended (July 2014). The results of the impact evaluation show that the program has been successful in placing youths in paid jobs and has contributed to an increase of 15 percent in current employment among male participants. The evaluation also found that the program has had positive effects on wage earnings, especially those of females and among older males, with wages increasing by about K Sh 5,000 for males and by K Sh 7,500 for females. With a total unit cost of K Sh 97,000 per beneficiary, an estimated K Sh 6,768 monthly wage for males and K Sh 9,623 monthly wage for females, the program?s benefits exceeded the costs for males and females. The program also encouraged youths to participate in either (certified) skills training or an internship program, and helped to increase the probability of participants? opening a bank account and accumulating savings (for females). |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Education For All,Labor Policies,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Primary Education |
| Date: | 2015–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7404&r=all |
| By: | Pierre Picard (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Kili WANG (Tamkang University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze, from theoretical and empirical standpoints, how insurance distribution channels may a§ect fraud when policyholders and service providers collude. The empirical analysis focuses on the Taiwan automobile insurance market. Striking forms of claims manipulation exist in this market: opportunistic policyholders tend to manipulate claim dates to reduce the burden of deductibles and to take advantage of the bonus-malus mechanism. We focus our attention on the role of dealer-owned agents (DOAs), since they have informational and bargaining advantages when faced with insurers and may be tempted to encourage collusion between their car repairers and policyholders. We develop an optimal contract model with claim auditing, where contracts are sold either through DOAs or through standard independent agents, and where policyholders and car repairers may collude to manipulate claims. We also use a database from the largest Taiwanese insurance company to test for the relevance of theoretical predictions. In particular, we verify that fraud occurs through the postponing of claims to the end of the policy year, possibly by Öling one single claim for several events, and we show that the fraud rate is larger among policyholders who purchase insurance through the DOA channel than among other policyholders. |
| Date: | 2015–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01140590&r=all |
| By: | Casini,Paolo; Vandewalle,Lore; Wahhaj,Zaki |
| Abstract: | Self-help groups (SHGs) are the most common form of microfinance in India. The authors provide evidence that SHGs, composed of women only, undertake collective actions for the provision of public goods within village communities. Using a theoretical model, this paper shows that an elected official, whose aim is to maximize re-election chances, exerts higher effort in providing public goods when private citizens undertake collective action and coordinate their voluntary contributions towards the same goods. This effect occurs although government and private contributions are assumed to be substitutes in the technology of providing public goods. Using first-hand data on SHGs in India, the paper tests the prediction of the model and shows that, in response to collective action by SHGs, local authorities tackle a larger variety of public issues, and are more likely to tackle issues of interest to SHGs. The findings highlight how the social behavior of SHGs can influence the governance of rural Indian communities. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Corporate Law,Debt Markets,Civil Society,Political Economy |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7397&r=all |
| By: | Shinichi Nishiyama |
| Abstract: | This paper incorporates the aging population projected by the U.S. Social Security Administration to a heterogeneous-agent OLG model with idiosyncratic wage shocks and analyzes its effects on individual households, the government budget, and the overall economy. The fiscal gap caused by the demographic change is 2.94% of GDP under the intermediate projection. The effect of the aging population is large by itself and depends significantly on how the government finances the cost of the demographic change. There is a strong trade-off between efficiency and equity, and this paper quantitatively assesses the pros and cons of stylized fiscal reform plans. |
| Keywords: | dynamic general equilibrium, heterogeneous agents, overlapping generations, aging population, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | D91 E62 H31 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:89793613&r=all |
| By: | Krawczyk, Jacek B; Townsend, Wilbur |
| Abstract: | Governments want to prevent high inequality while maintaining economic effi ciency. This paper investigates how an economy can satisfy both these constraints. We use the relative factor share as a proxy for inequality and so can use a representative agent model to understand how inequality evolves. Our representative agent model includes capital, consumption and debt which, like the relative factor share, are influenced by tax rates. Whether the model's evolutions can be constrained is understood as a problem of viability theory, and so we compute the viability kernels corresponding to our constraints. These kernels explain both how policy makers should act and why they act as they currently do. For example, we show that substantial government debt will require policy makers to reduce inequality. More importantly, we demonstrate that viability theory is a meaningful, interesting approach to understanding the tradeoff between inequality and efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Factor income, Inequality, Viability theory, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:4689&r=all |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell |
| Abstract: | The timing of the release of the Social Security Trustees Report is becoming more unpredictable. It used to come out in the spring, but in the last two years it has been released in late July. It is hard to know whether the delay reflects internal controversy or simply the inability to get six people (the Social Security Commissioner, the Secretaries of Treasury, of Health and Human Services, and of Labor, and two public trustees) in a room at the same time to sign the document. One logical reason for the delay this year is the time required to incorporate the important Medicare legislation passed in April and the desire to release the Social Security and Medicare reports at the same time. While the release date has become more unpredictable, the message has not. The program faces a 75-year deficit, the Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program trust funds are scheduled for exhaustion in the early 2030s, and the Disability Insurance trust fund will run out of money next year. The specifics for 2015 show a little improvement: the 75-year deficit declined from 2.88 percent in 2014 to 2.68 percent in 2015 and the date of trust fund exhaustion moved from 2033 to 2034. But the story remains unchanged: the trust funds are going to run out of money, forcing substantial benefit cuts. Congress needs to act both to restore confidence in the nation’s major social insurance program and to give people time to adjust to needed changes. This brief updates the numbers and puts the current report in perspective. It also discusses the projected exhaustion of the Disability Insurance Trust Fund in 2016 and replacement rate data that remain missing from the Trustees Report. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2015-12&r=all |
| By: | Samuel Brazys (School of Politics and International Relations and Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin); Aidan Regan (School of Politics and International Relations, University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | The 2008 financial crisis hit few places harder than the European periphery, where five states, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, came to be collectively known as the ‘PIIGS’. Yet while the PIIGS experienced a similar adjustment to the crisis, the recoveries have shown significant divergence. Ireland, in particular, has stood out as a beacon of growth, not only in the PIIGS but in all of Europe. We challenge the prevailing narrative that Ireland’s exemplary performance is due to its early and ardent adaptation of fiscal ‘austerity’ measures. Instead we argue that Ireland’s path dependent, state-led, ‘enterprise policy’ situated Ireland to be a recipient of foreign direct investment driven by the low borrowing costs, brought on by the United States’ Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. Using quantitative and qualitative investigation we find evidence that the latent enterprise policy mechanism – operationalized via the impact of QE on investment projects into Ireland (vis-à-vis the other PIIGS) - rather than increased wage competitiveness via austerity, accounts for Ireland’s recovery from the crisis. |
| Keywords: | Austerity, Crisis, Debt, Ireland, PIIGS, Enterprise Policy |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201517&r=all |
| By: | Andreasen, Eugenia (University of Santiago of Chile); Valenzuela, Patricio (University of Chile) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that financial openness significantly affects corporate and sovereign credit ratings, and that the magnitude of this effect depends on the level of development of the domestic financial market. Issuers located in less financially developed economies stand to benefit the most from opening up their capital accounts, whereas the impact of this effect decreases as the level of development of the domestic capital market improves. |
| JEL: | F34 G15 G38 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-06&r=all |
| By: | Richard Layard |
| Abstract: | Leading thinkers across the worlds of science, public service and academia have launched a new global programme to combat climate change. Richard Layard outlines their proposal for big public investment in research that will dramatically reduce the costs of clean energy. |
| Keywords: | climate change, clean energy, government policy, renewables, R&D |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:444&r=all |
| By: | Simeon Schudy; Verena Utikal |
| Abstract: | Although understanding preferences for privacy is of great importance to economists, businesses and politicians little is known about the factors that shape the individual willingness to share personal data. This article provides three experimental studies with a total of 470 participants that help characterizing individual preferences for sharing personal data varying the characteristics of potential recipients. We find that participants’ willingness to share personal data with anonymous recipients decreases with the number of recipients. However, social distance to the recipients and the extent of personal data a single recipient receives do not decrease the willingness to share personal data. Further, we provide a methodological insight by showing that verification of personal data is essential when eliciting privacy preferences. |
| Keywords: | preferences elicitation, data privacy, informational privacy, experiment |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:twi:respas:0099&r=all |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar |
| Abstract: | I investigate the link between business regulatory reforms and economic growth in 172 countries. I create a 5 year dataset on business regulatory reforms from the World Bank?s Doing Business reports. Then, I test the hypothesis that business regulatory reforms increase economic growth, using data on micro-economic reforms. These data do not suffer the endogeneity issues associated with other datasets on changes in economic institutions. The results provide a robust support for the claim that business regulatory reforms are good for economic growth. The paper establishes that, on average, each business regulatory reform is associated with a 0.15% increase in growth rate of GDP. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:305086&r=all |
| By: | John Beshears; James J. Choi; Christopher Harris; David Laibson; Brigitte C. Madrian; Jung Sakong |
| Abstract: | If individuals have self-control problems, they may take up commitment contracts that restrict their spending. We experimentally investigate how contract design affects the demand for commitment contracts. Each participant divides money between a liquid account, which permits unrestricted withdrawals, and a commitment account with withdrawal restrictions that are randomized across participants. When the two accounts pay the same interest rate, the most illiquid commitment account attracts more money than any of the other commitment accounts. We show theoretically that this pattern is consistent with the presence of sophisticated present-biased agents, who prefer more illiquid commitment accounts even if they are subject to uninsurable marginal utility shocks drawn from a broad class of distributions. When the commitment account pays a higher interest rate than the liquid account, the relationship between illiquidity and deposits is flat, suggesting that agents without present bias and/or naïve present-biased agents are also present in our sample. |
| JEL: | D03 D14 D91 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21474&r=all |
| By: | Aruga, Kentaka |
| Abstract: | The study examines the consumer survey data collected for the seven agricultural products (rice, apple, cucumber, beef, pork, egg, and shiitake mushrooms) of regions near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNP) to find out what factors and attributes of consumers affect their purchasing behavior by using the contingent valuation method. In most of the agricultural products, we found that consumers who put high priority on food safety issue, think the risk of radiation contamination became high after the Fukushima nuclear incident, live distanced from the FDNP, and live with children under the age of 15 require a higher discount rate to accept agricultural products of regions near the FDNP. On the other hand, our study indicated that consumers who trust the current safety standard for radioactive material concentrations in food, knowledgeable about radiation and radioactive materials, have high environmental consciousness, and aged are more likely to accept buying products of regions near the FDNP. |
| Keywords: | radioactive contamination, willingness to accept, CVM survey |
| JEL: | D12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2015–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66153&r=all |
| By: | Seabold,Skipper; Coppola,Andrea |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to assess the possibility of using Internet search keyword data for forecasting price series in Central America, focusing on Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras. The Internet search data comes from Google Trends. The paper introduces these data and discusses some of the challenges inherent in working with it in the context of developing countries. A new index is introduced for consumer search behavior for these countries using Google Trends data covering a two-week period during a single month. For each country, the study estimates one-step-ahead forecasts for several dozen price series for food and consumer goods categories. The study finds that the addition of the Internet search index improves forecasting over benchmark models in about 20 percent of the series. The paper discusses the reasons for the varied success and potential avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | E-Business,Economic Theory&Research,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Information and Communication Technologies |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7398&r=all |
| By: | BRITO, JOÃO ANTONIO |
| Abstract: | This paper defines the size of 215 countries using population and land area dimension. The statistical technique of cluster analysis was used to identify the groups of states that share the same characteristics of population and land area, and 83 countries were classified as small. From the descriptive analysis small size does not imply lower economic development/performance compared to large states. However, the economies of small states are more vulnerable. Proximity to developed markets, degree of economic freedom and openness to foreign markets were identified as the main factors explaining differences in economic performance among small states. |
| Keywords: | Country Size, Small States, Cluster Analysis and Economic Growth |
| JEL: | O40 O50 O57 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66149&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Thomas Bernard; Lynda Khalaf; Maral Kichian; Clement Yelou |
| Abstract: | Expert outlooks on the future path of oil prices are often relied on by industry participants and policymaking bodies for their forecasting needs. Yet little attention has been paid to the extent to which these area accurate. Using the regular publications by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), we examine the accuracy of annual recursive oil price forecasts generated by the National Energy Modeling System model of the Agency for forecast horizons of up to 15 years. Our results reveal that the EIA model is quite successful at beating the benchmark random walk model, but only at either end of the forecast horizons. We also show that, for the longer horizons, simple econometric forecasting models often produce similar if not better accuracy than the EIA model. Among these, time-varying specifications generally also exhibit stability in their forecast performance. Finally, while combining forecasts does not change the overall patterns, some additional accuracy gains are obtained at intermediate horizons, and in some cases forecast performance stability is also achieved. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, expert outlooks, long run forecasting, forecast combinations |
| JEL: | Q47 C20 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:creacr:2015-3&r=all |
| By: | Phung, Tracy (University of WI); Coxhead, Ian (University of WI); Lian, Chang (University of WI) |
| Abstract: | For several decades, the economies of Southeast Asia have experienced average per capita GDP growth rates second only to China, and much higher than any other major world region. In this study we examine the sources of this growth. We ask whether countries of this region follow a common growth path relative to the rest of the developing world. We pay particular attention to two prominent features of virtually every Asian regional growth narrative--openness to international trade and factor flows, and spillovers from growth booms in large regional economies like Japan and China--which have not received adequate attention in previous quantitative growth analyses. Our results show that rapid income growth in Northeast Asia had significant spillover effects on Southeast Asian growth, and that these effects were significantly larger than for other developing regions. But within the region, growth outcomes have been differentiated in part by the degree of openness to international trade and factor flows. Thus, while the good luck of geographic proximity to the booming economies of Northeast Asia has been important, good policies also matter. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:wisagr:573&r=all |
| By: | Shekhar Aiyar; A. J. Al-Eyd; Bergljot Barkbu; Andreas Jobst |
| Abstract: | Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for a disproportionate share of output and employment in Europe but are still highly dependent on bank finance, which dried up or became prohibitively expensive during the crisis. Broader access to alternative, long-term finance through securitization would limit their exposure to banking sector difficulties and thus help revive credit. The SDN examines the various impediments to the development of a well-functioning and liquid securitization market in Europe and proposes a comprehensive multi-faceted strategy to support its development through regulatory reforms and infrastructure development together with targeted and time-bound official sector support. This would require (i) greater regulatory differentiation between securities of different quality and underlying asset structures; (ii) harmonized national enforcement and insolvency frameworks and standardized reporting requirements; and (iii) greater capacity of EU authorities to support new issuance. These measures would be underpinned by a pan-European definition of high-quality securitization (HQS) comprising simple, transparent and efficient asset structures receiving preferential regulatory treatment. |
| Keywords: | Financial intermediation;Structured finance, macro-financial linkages, SME finance, market, finance, markets, investment, debt, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General, |
| Date: | 2015–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:15/7&r=all |
| By: | Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Pour sortir de la Grande Récession et enclencher la transition vers l'économie à bas carbone, nous proposons ici un plan d'investissement public et privé dans la transition énergétique de l'ordre de 2 points de PIB européen par an. La clef de ce plan repose sur la possibilité de reconsidérer les critères de finances publiques en n'utilisant non pas la dette publique brute (en point de PIB) comme objectif de la stabilité, mais au contraire, en reposant sur un concept de dette publique nette des actifs publics créés. Un organe tiers (par exemple la Commission européenne) pourrait évaluer ex post et ex ante la valeur des investissements réalisée, incitant à des politiques cohérentes et efficaces de dépense publique. |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00991186&r=all |
| By: | Jo Blanden; Claire Crawford; Ellen Greaves; Paul Gregg; John Hills; Lindsey Macmillan; Abigail McKnight; Luke Sibieta; Anna Vignoles |
| Abstract: | Coalition Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, argued that 'the over-riding priority for our social policy is improving social mobility'. Research summarised here sheds light on how things have been changing as children move through education and on other key drivers of differences in life chances. |
| Keywords: | social mobility, education, attainment |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:spccwp:21&r=all |
| By: | Ann S. O'Malley |
| Abstract: | Challenges to health information exchange are pervasive; they are not just a market-specific phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | Testimony, Interoperability Task Force, Health IT Policy Committee, ONC |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:cf445f269798461bac40a2c04f7ed63a&r=all |
| By: | Ghosh, Saibal |
| Abstract: | This is the time of the year when the decisions relating to the Nobel memorial prize in economics are announced. The study lists the earlier recipients and highlights certain interesting facets that could act as a guide for selecting potential recipients. |
| Keywords: | Nobel prize; Economics; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | A10 B31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66216&r=all |
| By: | EY |
| Abstract: | This Study identifies the Member States that make use of the options to apply a RCM and evaluates the economic importance of the RCM, the cash-flow impacts of the RCM and the administrative burden on business of applying the RCM. See the summary(530 kB) |
| Keywords: | European Union, taxation, Reverse Charge Mechanism, VAT |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0052&r=all |
| By: | Naïma El Farouq (LIMOS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, de Modélisation et d'optimisation des Systèmes - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - UBP - Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 - Institut Français de Mécanique Avancée); Pierre Bernhard (BIOCORE - Biological control of artificial ecosystems - LOV - Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSU - CNRS - CRISAM - Inria Sophia Antipolis - Méditerranée - INRIA - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)) |
| Abstract: | We prove the missing uniqueness theorem for the viscosity solution of a quasi-variational inequality related to a minimax impulse control problem modeling the option pricing with proportional transactions costs. This result makes our robust control approach of option pricing in the interval market model essentially complete. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01090616&r=all |
| By: | Joshua D. Angrist; Jörn-Steffen Pischke |
| Abstract: | How should researchers interested in social and economic policy untangle cause and effect? A new book by Joshua Angrist and Jörn Steffen Pischke shows how the five core econometric tools -randomised trials, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs and differences-in-differences - accomplish this. These tools lie at the heart of CEP research. |
| Keywords: | applied econometrics, research design, natural experiment, quasi-experiment, structural models |
| JEL: | C01 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:442&r=all |
| By: | Olivier Lopez (Laboratoire de Finance et d'Assurance - CREST-INSEE - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Statistique - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Xavier Milhaud (Laboratoire de Finance et d'Assurance - CREST-INSEE - Centre de Recherche en Economie et en Statistique - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Pierre-Emmanuel Thérond (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Galea & Associés) |
| Abstract: | Ces outils fournissent de nouvelles méthodes pour répondre aux problématiques des assureurs, notamment pour l'analyse des comportements des assurés et des prospects. Ils permettent de construire des classes de risques. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01152263&r=all |
| By: | Zhang, Zhibai; Bian, Zhicun |
| Abstract: | Different from popular studies that focus on relative purchasing power parity, we study absolute purchasing power parity (APPP) in 21 main industrial countries. Three databases are used. Both the whole period and the sub-period are analyzed. The empirical proof shows that the phenomenon that APPP holds is common, and the phenomenon that APPP does not hold is also common. In addition, some country pairs and the pooled country data indicate that the nearer the GDPPs of two countries are, the more valid APPP between the two countries is. |
| Keywords: | Absolute purchasing power parity; Real exchange rate; Coefficient restriction test |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66241&r=all |
| By: | Ali Murad Syed (LED - Laboratoire D'Economie Dionysien - LED - Université Paris 8); Abdourahmane Diaw (LED - Laboratoire D'Economie Dionysien - LED - Université Paris 8); Mouna Kessentini (LED - Laboratoire D'Economie Dionysien - LED - Université Paris 8) |
| Abstract: | This study provides the evidence of the performance of SRI funds in the UK and in France both before and during the financial crisis. We find that in the pre-crisis (2004-2007) period all French and UK funds outperformed the market. According to the modified Sharpe ratio, French and UK funds also outperformed during the crisis period (2007-2009) when compared with relative market benchmarks. This result is not confirmed by the Jensen alpha or the Treynor ratio, but these instruments did not indicate significant underperformance. Overall, our results show that while there is no significant difference in financial performance between SRI funds and non-SRI funds. |
| Date: | 2015–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01184527&r=all |
| By: | Moscarola, Flavia Coda (University of Turin); Fornero, Elsa (University of Turin); Strom, Steinar (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Both economic and epidemiological literature have shown that perceived high strain at work and lack of social infrastructures are good predictors of sick-leave. The latter is particularly relevant in (Mediterranean) countries where facilities for children and LTC services are relatively scarce and women are frequently asked to fill the gap. The Italian 2011 pension reform, approved under the threat of a financial crisis, significantly restricted age and seniority requirements for retirement, especially for women in private employment, who still enjoyed a much more favorable treatment than men and women in public service. We investigate whether older Italian women (still in employment) reacted to the postponement of retirement by increasing their recourse to sick-leave. The empirical analysis, based on a noteworthy administrative data set provided by the Italian Social Security Agency, offers unequivocal evidence that this has indeed been the case, in particular for grandmothers. This result lends itself to interesting policy considerations. |
| Keywords: | pension reform, sick-leave, child-care |
| JEL: | J26 J13 C33 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp104&r=all |
| By: | Fabio Saracco; Riccardo Di Clemente; Andrea Gabrielli; Luciano Pietronero |
| Abstract: | Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities. In the present article, we propose a simple dynamical model where countries compete with each other to acquire the ability to produce and export new products. Countries will have two possibilities to expand their export: innovating, i.e. introducing new goods, namely new nodes in the product networks, or copying the productive process of others, i.e. occupying a node already present in the same network. In this way, the topology of the products network and the country-product matrix evolve simultaneously, driven by the countries push toward innovation. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.03571&r=all |
| By: | Matthieu Boussichas (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI); Patrick Guillaumont (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI, CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | Le concept d’aide publique au développement (APD) a 45 ans d’existence et a subi autant d’années de critiques, lesquelles ont été croissantes (voir en particulier Severino & Ray, 2011). Le débat a été publiquement ouvert par l’OCDE lors de la réunion à haut niveau du Comité d’aide au développement (CAD) en décembre 2012. Une nouvelle mesure de l’aide au développement devrait être proposée par le CAD lors d’une réunion de haut niveau en décembre 2014. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01109863&r=all |
| By: | Mehdad, Ehsan (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Kleijnen, J.P.C. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Kriging provides metamodels for deterministic and random simulation models. Actually, there are several types of Kriging; the classic type is so-called universal Kriging, which includes ordinary Kriging. These classic types require estimation of the trend in the input-output data of the underlying simulation model; this estimation deteriorates the Kriging metamodel. We therefore consider so-called intrinsic Kriging originating in geostatistics, and derive intrinsic Kriging for deterministic and random simulations. Moreover, for random simulations we derive experimental designs that specify the number of replications that varies with the input combination of the simulation model. To compare the performance<br/>of intrinsic Kriging and classic Kriging, we use several numerical experiments with deterministic simulations and random simulations. These experiments show that intrinsic Kriging gives better metamodels, in most experiments. |
| Keywords: | simulation; gaussian process; Kriging; intrinsic random functions; metamodel |
| JEL: | C0 C1 C9 C15 C44 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:00bed9cb-d34c-4e98-93ef-e805fce63fa0&r=all |
| By: | Xavier Pavie (PhD Program - Essec Business School); Eva Hsu (The Chinese University of Hong Kong - The Chinese University of Hong Kong); Hanns Justus Tillman Rödle (School of Business, Economics and Law - University of Gothenburg - (SWEDEN)); Raquel Orozco Tapia (Universidad Argentina de la empresa of Buenos Aires - Universidad Argentina de la empresa of Buenos Aires) |
| Abstract: | This research deals with the process of business model innovation in services. Definitions and explanations of both general innovation terminologies as well as specific service related once will be given and discussed. Moreover, reasons and implementation strategies will be identified and discussed. Last but not least a case will be elaborated how innovative companies in products can become innovative in services. |
| Date: | 2013–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00921420&r=all |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Quel que soit le type d’établissement fréquenté (public ou privé, favorisé ou défavorisé), en 2012, les élèves de 15 ans ont passé plus de temps en cours de mathématiques que leurs homologues en 2003. Le temps moyen passé en cours de mathématiques varie de plus du simple au double entre les pays et économies à l’étude. En moyenne, plus les élèves passent de temps en cours de mathématiques, meilleurs sont leurs résultats dans cette matière ; toutefois, le fait de donner aux élèves davantage de travail en classe ne suffit souvent pas à améliorer leurs résultats d’apprentissage. |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:edudde:54-fr&r=all |
| By: | Frédéric Abergel (MAS - Mathématiques Appliquées aux Systèmes - EA 4037 - Ecole Centrale Paris, FiQuant-Chaire de finance quantitative - MAS - Mathématiques Appliquées aux Systèmes - EA 4037 - Ecole Centrale Paris) |
| Abstract: | Document rendu obsolète par la mise en ligne de la dernière version de "Long time behaviour of a Hawkes process-based limit order book" |
| Date: | 2015–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01113533&r=all |
| By: | Kamal Saggi (Vanderbilt University); Mark Wu (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | An agricultural price range system (PRS) aims to stabilize local prices in an open economy via the use of import duties that vary with international prices. The policy is inherently distortionary and welfare-reducing for a small open economy, at least according to the canonical economic model. We offer an explanation for why a government concerned with national welfare may nevertheless implement such a policy when faced with risk aversion and imperfect insurance markets. We also highlight open questions arising out of the Peru – Agricultural Products dispute for the WTO's Appellate Body to address in order to clarify how a PRS consistent with WTO rules could be designed. Finally, we discuss the possibility that a WTO member might resort to a free trade agreement (FTA) to preserve its flexibility to implement a PRS and how an FTA provision of this sort ought to be treated in WTO litigation. |
| Keywords: | Price range systems, variable duties, WTO, dispute, welfare |
| JEL: | F1 K0 |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-15-00009&r=all |
| By: | Luminita Postelnicu; Niels Hermes |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the extent to which informal institutions are developed at the country-level and the financial and social performance of MFIs, using data from institutions active in 100 countries. Based on the theoretical literature discussing the economic role of informal institutions such as trust, beliefs, norms and values we hypothesize that microfinance is more successful, both in terms of their financial and social aims, in countries with stronger informal institutions. We test this hypothesis using various direct and indirect measures of informal institutions and link them to measures of financial and social performance of MFIs. Our empirical results are generally supportive to our hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance; social capital; trust; norms; values; culture; financial performance; social performance |
| Date: | 2015–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/208318&r=all |
| By: | Berardi, Simone; Tedeschi, Gabriele |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to shed light on the emergence of systemic risk in credit systems. By developing an interbank market with heterogeneous financial institutions granting loans on different network structures, we investigate what market architecture is more resilient to liquidity shocks and how the risk spreads over the modeled system. In our model, credit linkages evolve endogenously via a fitness measure based on different banks strategies. Each financial institution, in fact, applies a strategy based on a low interest rate, a high supply of liquidity or a combination of them. Interestingly, the choice of the strategy in uences both the banks' performance and the network topology. In this way, we are able to identify the most effective tactics adapt to contain contagion and the corresponding network topology. Our analysis shows that, when financial institutions combine the two strategies, the interbank network does not condense and this generates the most efficient scenario in case of shocks. |
| Keywords: | interbank market,dynamic network,fitness model,network resilience,bank strategy |
| JEL: | G01 G02 D85 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:47&r=all |
| By: | Murasawa, Yasutomo |
| Abstract: | The consumption Euler equation implies that the output growth rate and the real interest rate are of the same order of integration; i.e., if the real interest rate is I(1), then so is the output growth rate and hence log output is I(2). To estimate the natural rates and gaps of macroeconomic variables jointly, this paper develops the multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition with I(1) and I(2) series. The paper applies the method to Japanese data during 1980Q1--2013Q3 to estimate the natural rates and gaps of output, inflation, interest, and unemployment jointly. |
| Keywords: | gap; natural rate; trend--cycle decomposition; unit root |
| JEL: | C32 C82 E32 |
| Date: | 2015–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66319&r=all |
| By: | Gilles Umba (UNIKIN - Université de Kinshasa) |
| Abstract: | Ce papier analyse les effets de l'ouverture commerciale sur la croissance économique en République Démocratique du Congo. Les analyses empiriques menées ont été divergentes sur les effets réels de pareilles mesures sur le comportement des variables macroéconomiques d'un pays. La plupart voient un des pareilles politiques un catalyseur de croissance alors que d'autre les perçoivent comme nuisible à la production et la compétitivité. En vue de saisir les différents effets de l'ouverture commerciale, ce travail envisage une analyse en équilibre général dynamique simple en simulant un abaissement progressif des barrières tarifaires de 2015 à 2029. Les simulations menées révèlent cependant un effet net négatif sur la croissance économique des effets de l'ouverture commerciale. Toutefois, cet impact négatif pourrait se résorber par la poursuite des réformes structurelles visant à améliorer la compétitivité et à diversifier l'économie. |
| Date: | 2015–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01184117&r=all |
| By: | Agerton, Mark (James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University); Hartley, Peter (James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University); Medlock, Kenneth B., III (James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University); Temzelidea, Ted (James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University) |
| Abstract: | Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do, in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-004&r=all |
| By: | Bahman Angoshtari; Erhan Bayraktar; Virginia R. Young |
| Abstract: | We determine the optimal amount to invest in a Black-Scholes financial market for an individual who consumes at a rate equal to a constant proportion of her wealth and who wishes to minimize the expected time that her wealth spends in drawdown during her lifetime. Drawdown occurs when wealth is less than some fixed proportion of maximum wealth. We compare the optimal investment strategy with those for three related goal-seeking problems and learn that the individual is myopic in her investing behavior, as expected from other goal-seeking research. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.01914&r=all |
| By: | Douzounet MALLAYE (Université N'Djaména Tchad - Université N'Djaména); Urbain Thierry YOGO (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | Since 2000, Official Development Assistance has played a crucial role in efforts related to the achievement of MDGs. This is especially the case in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) which is the world’s largest recipient of foreign aid. This paper assesses the effectiveness of aid and its efficient use in achieving universal primary education in Sub-Saharan Africa. The impact of aid is assessed for a sample of 35 SSA countries over the decade 2000-2010. The results suggest that higher aid to education significantly increases primary completion rate. This result is robust to the use of various methods of estimation, the inclusion of instrument to account for the endogeneity of aid and the set of control variables included in regressions. In addition, this paper shows that there is strong heterogeneity in the efficient use of aid across countries in SSA. |
| Date: | 2015–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01100836&r=all |
| By: | Lili Yan ING (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia and University of Indonesia); Chandra Tri PUTRA (The Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | The paper argues that reductions in input tariffs will increase value added via product variety and quality. Using Indonesia’s firm and product level data from 2000 to 2010, the findings show that a reduction of one percent in input tariffs will increase value added by 0.2 percent, not only via its interaction with importing firms, but also with exporting firms that use imported products as their inputs. A onepercent reduction in input tariffs will increase product variety and quality by 3.5 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. Exporting firms tend to have a higher value added than the average of all firms, and they also tend to have increased variety and higher quality of products. Foreign firms also tend to have a relatively higher value added than the general average, but they do not necessarily have increased product variety and higher quality. |
| Keywords: | : Indonesia, tariff, imported input, product variety, product quality |
| JEL: | F12 F13 L16 O14 O19 O24 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2015-55&r=all |
| By: | Matthew Gibson (Williams College); Maria Carnovale (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the natural experiment created by an unanticipated court injunction, we evaluate driver responses to road pricing. We find evidence of intertemporal substitution toward unpriced times and spatial substitution toward unpriced roads. The effect on traffic volume varies with public transit availability. Net of these responses, Milan's pricing policy reduces air pollution substantially, generating large welfare gains. In addition, we use long-run policy changes to estimate price elasticities. |
| Keywords: | road pricing, traffic policy, air pollution |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2015-16&r=all |
| By: | Bronwyn Howell |
| Abstract: | The processes for assessing acceptable increases in patient fees paid to New Zealand primary health care practices are inconsistent with the government’s subsidy policy intentions. Bronwyn Howell explains why. |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380004&r=all |
| By: | Gilles Grolleau (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM], ESC Dijon Bourgogne - ESC Dijon Bourgogne, Unité MIAJ - INRA - Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)); Guillermo Mateu (ESC Dijon Bourgogne - ESC Dijon Bourgogne); Angela Sutan (ESC Dijon Bourgogne - ESC Dijon Bourgogne, LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM]); Radu Vranceanu (Economics Department - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper builds an experiment to investigate whether asking people to state how much they will donate to a charity (to pledge) can increase their actual donation. Individuals’ endowment is either certain or a random variable. We study different types of pledges, namely private, public and irrevocable ones, which differ in individual cost of not keeping a promise. Public pledges appear to be associated to lower donation levels. Irrevocable pledges ensure an amount of donations equal to donations in absence of pledges. Moreover, a significant number of individuals keep their promises, in presence of either private or public pledges. A higher risk attached to the endowment increases donations. |
| Date: | 2015–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01171156&r=all |
| By: | Claire Edey Gamassou (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée) |
| Abstract: | In this article, including a state of the art on Public Service Motivation (PSM) and its relationships to Affective Organizational Commitment (AOC), the interface of PSM with Organizational Behavior constructs is analyzed. |
| Date: | 2014–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01118014&r=all |
| By: | Alexandros Rigos; Heinrich H. Nax |
| Abstract: | Assortative mechanisms can overcome tragedies of the commons that otherwise result in dilemma situations. Assortativity criteria include genetics (e.g. kin selection), preferences (e.g. homophily), locations (e.g. spatial interaction) and actions (e.g. meritocracy), usually presuming an exogenously fixed matching mechanism. Here, we endogenize the matching process with the aim of investigating how assortativity itself, jointly with cooperation, is driven by evolution. Our main finding is that only full-or-null assortativities turn out to be long-run stable, their relative stabilities depending on the exact incentive structure of the underlying social dilemma. The resulting social loss is evaluated for general classes of dilemma games, thus quantifying to what extent tragedy of the commons may be endogenously overcome. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, (co-)evolution, assortativity, democratic consensus |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:15/19&r=all |
| By: | Matthew S. Rutledge; Steven A. Sass; Jorge D. Ramos-Mercado |
| Abstract: | Changing jobs after age 50 has become increasingly common. To assess the employment opportunities available to these job-changers, this study examines how the range of occupations in which they find jobs narrows as they age and whether this pattern differs by socioeconomic status, using education as a proxy. The results indicate that workers in their early 50s who change jobs find employment in a reasonably similar set of occupations as do prime-age workers but that the opportunities increasingly narrow as they enter their late 50s and early 60s. These results vary by educational attainment. Interestingly, while job opportunities narrow as workers age, the number of opportunities available to older workers at any given age has improved significantly between the late 1990s and early 2010s – though the gains have gone primarily to better-educated older workers. Consistent with previous research, the study also finds: 1) employer policies that emphasize employee training, respect for seniority, and “hiring from within” create barriers to the hiring of older job-seekers; 2) older workers are less likely to be hired in jobs requiring strong cognitive skills; but 3) physical demands and adverse working conditions are not serious impediments. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2015-20&r=all |
| By: | Baggio, Rodolfo; Moretti, Vincenzo |
| Abstract: | We discuss here how beauty can be considered a determinant for economic and social growth and what is its importance. We do this by following a line which links beauty with creativity and innovation; commonly reputed the main engines of development, especially in a globalized and highly technological and competitive world, in which many traditional differences in terms of space, time, size, and economic power have dramatically changed. |
| Keywords: | innovation, creativity, beauty, economic and social growth, work well done |
| JEL: | O1 O3 O44 |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66194&r=all |
| By: | Laurent Vilanova (COACTIS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne); Nadège Marchand (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Walid Hichri (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | We test in the laboratory how entrepreneurs' skill perceptions influence the design of financing and advising contracts. Our theoretical framework proposes that selfconfident entrepreneurs prefer issuing debt whereas low self-confident ones prefer equity which induces strong investor assistance. The prevalence of overconfidence makes investors more reluctant to accept debt offers and constrains self-confident entrepreneurs to finance through mixed securities. Experimental results show that self-confident entrepreneurs issue more debt-like securities and receive less assistance. We also show that entrepreneurs learn not to offer pure debt and that initial ignorance of their own skills reinforces entrepreneurs' ability to learn through risky choices. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01154514&r=all |
| By: | Philippe Lorino (Accounting / Management Control Department - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the curious odyssey of "Lean Management"... Under this label, managerial ideas and practices have undergone, first a decisive step towards process thinking, and then a striking return to planning and variance control habits. The study of this historical shift can give us clues about obstacles to process thinking in the managerial world. The paper will first recall the key ideas originally highlighted by the pioneers of "lean management", based on the Toyota Production System (TPS), and their distinctly processual orientation. Then it will review the practices today labelled as "Lean Management" and the surprising historical reversal they reveal. Finally it will review some of the potential reasons why such a reversal took place, with a particular focus on the treatment of time and the notions of slack and wasted time. |
| Abstract: | Ce texte étudie la curieuse odyssée du "Lean Management"... Sous cette appellation, les théories et les pratiques managériales ont connu tout d'abord un virage décisif vers une vision processuelle et dynamique des organisations, puis un retour en arrière frappant vers les visions planificatrices et le contrôle par écarts. L'étude de ce renversement historique peut nous donner des clés de réflexion sur les obstacles à la vision processuelle des organisations dans le monde managérial. Le texte rappelle d'abord les idées clés mises initialement en avant par les pionniers du "lean management", fondées sur le Toyota Production System (TPS), et sur leur orientation clairement processuelle. Puis il analyse les pratiques aujourd'hui désignées comme "Lean Management" et le renversement historique surprenant qu'elles manifestent. Enfin il tentera d'identifier quelques-unes des raisons qui peuvent potentiellement expliquer ce renversement, en insistant particulièrement sur le traitement du temps et les notions de "slack" et de "gaspillage". |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01023701&r=all |
| By: | Zvika Afik (BGU); Ohad Arad (BGU); Koresh Galil (BGU) |
| Keywords: | Credit risk; Default prediction; Merton model; Bankruptcy prediction, Default barrier; Assets volatility; Down and out option |
| JEL: | G17 G33 G13 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:1503&r=all |
| By: | Vaibhav Srivastava; Samuel F. Feng; Jonathan D. Cohen; Naomi Ehrich Leonard; Amitai Shenhav |
| Abstract: | In this work, we use Martingale theory to derive formulas for the expected decision time, error rates, and first passage times associated with a multistage drift diffusion model, or a Wiener diffusion model with piecewise constant time-varying drift rates and decision boundaries. The model we study is a generalization of that considered in Ratcliff (1980). The derivation relies on using the optional stopping theorem for properly chosen Martingales, thus obtaining formulae which may be used to compute performance metrics for a particular stage of the stochastic decision process. We also explicitly solve the case of a two stage diffusion model, and provide numerical demonstrations of the computations suggested by our analysis. Finally we present calculations that allow our techniques to approximate time-varying Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. By presenting these explicit formulae, we aim to foster the development of refined numerical methods and analytical techniques for studying diffusion decision processes with time-varying drift rates and thresholds. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.03373&r=all |
| By: | Emna Trabelsi (ISG - Institut Supérieur de Gestion de Tunis [Tunis] - Université de Tunis [Tunis]) |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines the implications of central bank transparency coupled with economic globalization on the effectiveness of monetary policy at achieving low and stable inflation, through an empirical analysis on a sample of 34 OECD central banks. Our results are threefold: (i) There is a dampening and highly significant negative impact of economic globalization (measured by the composite index of Dreher et al., 2008) on inflation (ii) An appropriate and efficient U shape test proposed by Lind and Mehlum (2010), indicates a robust optimal intermediate degree of transparency, but suggests new evidence as to its level differently from van der Cruijsen et al. (2010). Indeed, the optimal level is higher and seems to vary according to the set of controls included in the regression. The estimations were run using a bias corrected Least Square Dummy variable (hereafter, LSDVC), developed by Bruno (2005) for short dynamic panels with fixed effects, and extended to accommodate unbalanced data. Alternative results using Generalized Method of Moments (hereafter GMM) estimators: (Arellano and Bond, 1991, hereafter AB; Blundell and Bond, 1998, hereafter BB) are also provided. (iii) We find, overall, that LSDVC and BB estimators exhibit satisfactory fit, while AB estimator doesn't confirm the hypothesis of a quadratic relationship between transparency and inflation. |
| Date: | 2015–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01157387&r=all |
| By: | Crowley, Patrick (Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi); Trombley, Christopher (Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi) |
| Abstract: | Within currency unions, the conventional wisdom is that there should be a high degree of macroeconomic synchronicity between the constituent parts of the union. But this conjecture has never been formally tested by comparing sample of monetary unions with a control sample of countries that do not belong to a monetary union. In this paper we take euro area data, US State macro data, Canadian provincial data and Australian state data — namely real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the GDP deflator growth and unemployment rate data — and use techniques relating to recurrence plots to measure the degree of synchronicity in dynamics over time using a dissimilarity measure. The results show that for the most part monetary unions are more synchronous than non-monetary unions, but that this is not always the case and particularly in the case of real GDP growth. Furthermore, Australia is by far the most synchronous monetary union in our sample. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; growth cycles; frequency domain; optimal currency area; macroeconomic synchronization; monetary policy; single currency |
| JEL: | C49 E32 F44 |
| Date: | 2015–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2015_011&r=all |
| By: | Demostenes N. Tambakis |
| Abstract: | I study the long run determinacy tradeoff - recurrent episodes of passive monetary policy are (in)determinate if their expected duration is long (brief ) - when passive pol- icy is at the zero bound. On-going regime change implies qualitatively different shock transmission from the standard New Keynesian model. For U.S. baseline parameter values, I find temporary fiscal stimulus is effective, while adverse supply shocks can be expansionary if the central bank's active policy stance is weak and/or if the liquidity trap's average duration exceeds 3 quarters. |
| Keywords: | Zero bound; Monetary policy; Regime-switching; Determinacy |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2015–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1522&r=all |
| By: | Bublitz, Elisabeth; Nielsen, Kristian; Noseleit, Florian; Timmermans, Bram |
| Abstract: | Contrary to employees, there is no clear evidence that entrepreneurs' education positively effects income. In this study we propose that entrepreneurs can benefit from their education as a signal during the recruitment process of employees. This process is then assumed to follow a matching of equals among equals. Using rich data from Germany and Denmark we fully confirm a matching on qualification levels for high-skilled employees, partially for medium-skilled employees but not for low-skilled employees, suggesting that as skill levels of employees decrease it becomes equally probable that they work for different founders. Founder qualification is the most reliable predictor of recruitment choices over time. Our findings are robust to numerous control variables as well as across industries and firm age. |
| Keywords: | returns to education,labor demand of small firms,human capital,matching,signaling |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:166&r=all |
| By: | Severin Borenstein; Lucas W. Davis |
| Abstract: | Since 2006, U.S. households have received more than $18 billion in federal income tax credits for weatherizing their homes, installing solar panels, buying hybrid and electric vehicles, and other "clean energy" investments. We use tax return data to examine the socioeconomic characteristics of program recipients. We find that these tax expenditures have gone predominantly to higher-income Americans. The bottom three income quintiles have received about 10% of all credits, while the top quintile has received about 60%. The most extreme is the program aimed at electric vehicles, where we find that the top income quintile has received about 90% of all credits. By comparing to previous work on the distributional consequences of pricing greenhouse gas emissions, we conclude that tax credits are likely to be much less attractive on distributional grounds than market mechanisms to reduce GHGs. |
| JEL: | D30 H23 H24 H50 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21437&r=all |
| By: | Konrad Hurren |
| Abstract: | The pricing of television is taken as given in New Zealand. But internationally, regulators and competition authorities have begun to think about the effects that different pricing structures have on viewers and competition in television markets. Konrad Hurren outlines a pricing structure known as bundling, explains why firms use it, and ponders what it means for television viewers and content providers. |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380002&r=all |
| By: | Simeon Schudy; Verena Utikal |
| Abstract: | Privacy regulations can affect the willingness to collect personal health data that may be disclosed to insurers. Perfect privacy cannot always be guaranteed. Consequently, people may refrain from collecting personal health data. This paper provides a theoretical and experimental analysis of the importance of privacy regulations for information acquisition and disclosure behavior. We contrast three institutional settings in a simple game of persuasion: Disclosure Duty of collected data, Perfect Privacy and Imperfect Privacy. Under Perfect Privacy there exists a unique proper equilibrium with complete information acquisition. For Disclosure Duty no information acquisition is predicted. Imperfect Privacy can result in multiple equilibria. Our laboratory experiment confirms the qualitative differences on information acquisition for Perfect Privacy and Disclosure Duty. Behavior under Imperfect Privacy turns out to be very similar to Perfect Privacy: Imperfect Privacy does not stop people from collecting personal information. We discuss possible reasons for the observed behavior. |
| Keywords: | data privacy, endogenous information acquisition, health, experiment, unraveling |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:twi:respas:0098&r=all |
| By: | Renaud Bourlès (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Anastasia Cozarenco (CERMi - Centre for European Research in Microfinance, ULB - Université Libre de Bruxelles [Bruxelles] - ULB - Université Libre de Bruxelles, SBS-EM, Centre Emile Bernheim - SBS-EM - Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)); Dominique Henriet (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Xavier Joutard (UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2, GATE - GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | The microcredit market, where inexperienced micro-borrowers meet experienced microfinance institutions (MFIs), is subject to reversed asymmetric information. Thus, MFIs' choices can shape borrowers' beliefs and their behavior. We analyze how this mechanism may influence microfinance institution decisions to allocate business training. By means of a theoretical model, we show that superior information can lead the MFI not to train (or to train less) riskier borrowers. We then investigate whether this mechanism is empirically relevant, using data from a French MFI. Confirming our theoretical reasoning, we find a non-monotonic relationship between the MFI's decision to train and the risk that micro-borrowers represent. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01171949&r=all |
| By: | Céline Antonin (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Le deuxième semestre 2013 est marqué par la stabilité des prix autour de 110 dollars le baril de Brent. Ce maintien à des niveaux élevés s'explique par la faiblesse de l'offre par rapport à la demande, sous l'effet de ruptures d'approvisionnement (Libye, Nigéria) et d'un climat politique tendu au Proche-Orient, dans un marché surtout déterminé par les fondamentaux. Dans notre scénario central, nous faisons l'hypothèse d'une reprise progressive de la production en Libye dès 2014, de la levée des sanctions en Iran à partir de fin 2014/début 2015, et excluons une baisse de l'offre de la Russie malgré le bras de fer autour de l'Ukraine. Les prix du Brent baisseraient au cours de l'année 2014 avec la baisse des tensions sur l'offre pour atteindre 100 dollars en fin d'année. En 2015, les prix se maintiendraient autour de 100 dollars le baril, car le retour d'une croissance plus dynamique dans les pays développés devrait être compensé par une hausse de la production des pays non-membres de l'OPEP et par la présence de stocks abondants. La persistance de tensions politiques en Afrique et au Proche-Orient, la volonté de l'Arabie Saoudite de maintenir les cours entre 100 et 110 dollars, la demande toujours dynamique en provenance des pays non OCDE et le coût d'extraction des nouveaux gisements non conventionnels devraient néanmoins entraîner la résistance des cours en les maintenant au-dessus des 100 dollars. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00994098&r=all |
| By: | Prabir C. Bhattacharya; Vibhor Saxena |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the socio-economic determinants of access to cleaner cooking fuels and electricity by households in seven north Indian states in a multivariate framework. Together these states account for about 40 per cent of India’s population. We investigate, in particular, the role of any possible discrimination against the three major disadvantaged groups in the country – viz., the scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, and Muslims – in their accessing these goods. The results of our analysis suggest that discrimination against these groups, particularly against the Muslim households, does play an important role in their poorer access to both cleaner cooking fuels and electricity. The paper concludes with some policy suggestions. |
| JEL: | O13 Q40 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1502&r=all |
| By: | Zimmermann, Christian (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | There is very little replication of research in economics, particularly compared with other sciences. This paper argues that there is a dire need for studies that replicate research, that their scarcity is due to poor or negative rewards for replicators, and that this could be improved with a journal that exclusively publishes replication studies. I then discuss how such a journal could be organized, in particular in the face of some negative rewards some replication studies may elicit. |
| JEL: | A1 B4 |
| Date: | 2015–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2015-016&r=all |
| By: | Ward, Shannon (University of Melbourne); Williams, Jenny (University of Melbourne); van Ours, Jan C. (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the effects of delinquency and arrest on school leaving using information on males from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. We use a multivariate mixed proportional hazard framework in order to account for common unobserved confounders and reverse causality. Our key finding is that delinquency as well as arrest leads to early school leaving. Further investigation reveals that the effect of delinquency is largely driven by income generating crimes, and the effect of both income generating crime and arrest are greater when onset occurs at younger ages. These findings are consistent with a criminal capital accumulation mechanism. On the basis of our sample, we show that taking into account the proportion of young men affected by delinquency and arrest, that the overall reduction in education due to delinquency is at least as large as the reduction due to arrest. This highlights the need for crime prevention efforts to extend beyond youth who come into contact with the justice system. |
| Keywords: | duration models, delinquency, arrest, education |
| JEL: | C4 I2 K4 D0 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9248&r=all |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Mir Ahmad Khan (Federal Board of Revenue, Government of Pakistan) |
| Keywords: | corporate income tax, effective tax rate, tax reform |
| JEL: | H20 H25 H32 H87 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1513&r=all |
| By: | Akay, Alpaslan (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Bargain, Olivier B. (Aix-Marseille Université and IZA); Giulietti, Corrado (IZA); Robalinod , Juan D. (Cornell University); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (IZA and Bonn University) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the impact of remittances on the relative concerns of households in rural China. Using the Rural to Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) dataset we estimate a series of well-being functions to simultaneously explore the relative concerns with respect to income and remittances. Our results show that although rural households experience substantial utility loss due to income comparisons, they gain utility by comparing their remittances with those received by their reference group. In other words, we find evidence of a “status-effect” with respect to income and of a “signal-effect” with respect to remittances. The magnitudes of these two opposite effects are very similar, implying that the utility reduction due to relative income is compensated by the utility gain due to relative remittances. This finding is robust to various specifications, controlling for the endogeneity of remittances and selective migration, as well as a measure of current migrants’ net remittances calculated using counterfactual income and expenditures. |
| Keywords: | positional concerns; remittances; subjective well-being |
| JEL: | C90 D63 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0623&r=all |
| By: | Kwenda, Prudence (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg); Benhura, Miracle (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg) |
| Abstract: | The present study examines the public-private sector wage gap in South Africa using individual cross section data for 2000-7. Results from unconditional quantile regressions and generalised Oaxaca-Blinder type decompositions show that the wage gap is inverted-U shaped across the wage distribution. The 'composition' effect is more important than the 'price' effect at the bottom of the distribution while the opposite applies at the top. Key factors underpinning the 'composition' effect are unionisation, industry of employment and education, while those associated with the 'price' effect are education, race and occupation. |
| Keywords: | public sector, wage gap, recentered influence function, decomposition |
| JEL: | C21 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9271&r=all |
| By: | Florence Allard-Poesi (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Yvonne Giordano (GREDEG - GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis) |
| Abstract: | This research aims to understand how leaders co-perform distributed leadership. Following Spillane's (2006) definition of distributed leadership as located " in-between " leaders, we analyze the interactions in-depth (through e-mail and phone calls) between the forecasters (the " earth ") and the team leaders during the summit attempts (the " sky ") of two commercial expeditions: one to Broad Peak, and one to Mt. Everest via the northern ridge. Our research contributes to the understanding of the construction of distributed leadership. First, it describes the discursive practices through which team leaders and forecasters co-perform distributed leadership. Second, it shows that while facing relatively similar natural, technological, task-related and human conditions, leaders co-construct two different forms of distributed leadership: coordinated distribution (Spillane, or sequential, Thompson, 1967) and collaborated distribution (or reciprocal). Finally, it underlines that different leadership configurations may result in similar, favorable outcomes, thereby inviting us to take distance with a determinist concept of leadership. |
| Date: | 2014–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01123784&r=all |
| By: | Henri Sterdyniak (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Vincent Touze (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La hausse des prélèvements obligatoires en France soulève de nombreuses interrogations sur le bien fondé de notre système fiscal. De nombreuses propositions de réformes fiscales ont été faites. Pour les discuter, l’OFCE a organisé le 20 mai 2014 une conférence de consensus sur la fiscalité des ménages et des entreprises. Cet article en publie le compte-rendu. Le premier débat a porté sur la fiscalité des entreprises qui devrait sans doute être rendue moins lourde et moins compliquée. Le deuxième sur la fiscalité écologique s’accorde sur l’objectif d’une montée en puissance rapide et programmée. Le troisième sur la fiscalité des ménages montre que la complexité actuelle permet une progressivité importante, ce qui rend difficile les réformes simplificatrices. Enfin, le dernier débat explore les enjeux de la fiscalité des revenus du capital dont le caractère redistributif doit être maintenu, ce qui réduit considérablement les possibilités d’ajustement. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:tel-01178116&r=all |
| By: | Shuaizhang Feng; Yingyao Hu; Robert Moffitt |
| Abstract: | Unemployment rates in countries across the world are typically positively correlated with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, with abnormally low, and suspiciously stable, unemployment rates according to its official statistics. This paper calculates, for the first time, China’s unemployment rate from 1988 to 2009 using a more reliable, nationally representative household survey in China. The unemployment rates we calculate differ dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more consistent with what is known about China’s labor market and how it has changed over time in response to structural changes and other significant events. The rate averaged 3.9% in 1988-1995, when the labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995- 2002, reaching an average of 10.9% in the subperiod from 2002 to 2009. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995-2002 when the unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also report results for different demographic groups, different regions, and different cohorts. |
| JEL: | J64 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21460&r=all |
| By: | Andrew E. Clark (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)); Sarah Flèche (Centre for Economic Performance - LSE - London School of Economics); Claudia Senik (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), UP4 - Université Paris-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In spite of the great U-turn that saw income inequality rise in Western countries in the 1980s, happiness inequality has fallen in countries that have experienced income growth (but not in those that did not). Modern growth has reduced the share of both the “very unhappy” and the “perfectly happy”. Lower happiness inequality is found both between and within countries, and between and within individuals. Our cross-country regression results argue that the extension of various public goods helps to explain this greater happiness homogeneity. This new stylised fact arguably comes as a bonus to the Easterlin paradox, offering a somewhat brighter perspective for developing countries. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-01080877&r=all |
| By: | Petar Sorić (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Ivana Lolić (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Mirjana Čižmešija (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | In the last five decades the European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has positioned itself as a high-quality leading indicator of overall economic activity. Relying on data from five distinct business and consumer survey sectors (industry, retail trade, services, construction and the consumer sector), ESI is conceptualized as a weighted average of the chosen 15 response balances. However, the official methodology of calculating ESI is quite flawed because of the arbitrarily chosen balance response weights. This paper proposes two alternative methods for obtaining novel weights aimed at enhancing ESI's forecasting power. Specifically, the weights are determined by minimizing the root mean square error in simple GDP forecasting regression equations; and by maximizing the correlation coefficient between ESI and GDP growth for various lead lengths (up to 12 months). Both employed methods seem to considerably increase ESI's forecasting accuracy in 26 individual European Union countries. The obtained results are quite robust across specifications. |
| Keywords: | Business and Consumer Surveys, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Nonlinear Optimization with Constraints, Leading Indicator |
| JEL: | C53 C61 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zag:wpaper:1505&r=all |
| By: | Tang, Jenny (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | A growing body of evidence supports the view that monetary policy actions communicate information about the state of the economy to an imperfectly informed public. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to understand the implications of this signaling channel for optimal policy as well as for the value of central bank communication. This paper studies, both theoretically and empirically, a setting where such a monetary policy signaling channel arises because the policymaker has more information about economic fundamentals than private agents have. In this environment, policy actions taken in response to fundamentals provide a signal to rational private agents about those fundamentals. |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2013–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:15-8&r=all |
| By: | Miriam Rinawi (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich); Uschi Backes-Gellner (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | In the discussion on the impact of technology on wages, the impact of changes in skills remains under-investigated. Using RIF regression-based decompositions, we find that changes in the skill composition decrease wage inequality, whereas changing skill prices largely increase wage inequality. Both changes account for about one third of the changes of the wage distribution. |
| Keywords: | return to skills, skill-biased technical change, wage inequality, decomposition analysis, RIF regression |
| JEL: | J00 J31 J40 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0112&r=all |
| By: | Céline Meslier (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - unilim - Université de Limoges - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société); Donald P. Morgan (Federal Reserve Bank of New-York - Federal Reserve Bank of New-York); Katherine Samolyk (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau); Amine Tarazi (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - unilim - Université de Limoges - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the benefits of intrastate and interstate geographic diversification for bank risk and return, and assess whether such benefits could be shaped by differences in bank size and disparities in economic conditions within states or across U.S. states. For small banks, only intrastate diversification is beneficial in terms of risk-adjusted returns but for very large institutions both intrastate and interstate expansions are rewarding. However, in all cases the relationship is hump-shaped for both intrastate and interstate diversification indicating limits for banks of all size. Moreover, we also find geographic expansion to reduce bank risk. Our results indicate that both small banks and very large banks could still benefit in terms of risk-adjusted returns from further geographic diversification. Disparities in economic conditions as measured by the dispersion in unemployment rates either across counties or states impact the benefits of diversification. At initially low levels of intrastate diversification, expanding in new markets allows small banks to further reduce their risk in the presence of higher economic disparities. However, when they get more diversified, this effect is reduced. |
| Date: | 2015–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01155170&r=all |
| By: | David J. Deming |
| Abstract: | The slow growth of high-paying jobs in the U.S. since 2000 and rapid advances in computer technology have sparked fears that human labor will eventually be rendered obsolete. Yet while computers perform cognitive tasks of rapidly increasing complexity, simple human interaction has proven difficult to automate. In this paper, I show that the labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Since 1980, jobs with high social skill requirements have experienced greater relative growth throughout the wage distribution. Moreover, employment and wage growth has been strongest in jobs that require high levels of both cognitive skill and social skill. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team production where workers “trade tasks” to exploit their comparative advantage. In the model, social skills reduce coordination costs, allowing workers to specialize and trade more efficiently. The model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations, which I test and confirm using data from the NLSY79. The female advantage in social skills may have played some role in the narrowing of gender gaps in labor market outcomes since 1980. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21473&r=all |
| By: | Tisdell, Clem |
| Abstract: | Marine ecosystems, and the services they provide, are predicted to alter considerably as a result of climate change. This paper outlines important expected alterations in these ecosystems, considers their economic consequences, and examines economic policies that may be adopted in response to these changes. In doing so, it focuses on two main cases, namely findings about the impact of ocean acidification (and climate change generally) on the Norwegian fisheries and predictions about alterations in coral reef systems. A number of theoretical issues are raised. These include the possibility that if economic impact analysis is used to measure economic value, the global economic value of coral reefs could rise as their area is reduced. This, however, is not necessarily an appropriate measure of economic value, even though it is often used for this purpose. Also the importance of taking into account the opportunity costs involved in conserving marine ecosystems is stressed. Furthermore, several dynamic aspects of variations in marine ecosystems are shown to be important for valuation purposes as well as for economic policy. Both the economics of mitigation and adjustment policies are discussed. Optimal economic policies for responding to climate change are shown to be sensitive to the dynamics of ecosystem change and are likely to vary regionally. |
| Keywords: | climate change, climate adjustment strategies, climate mitigation strategies, coral reefs, economic valuation, ecosystem services, marine ecosystems., Environmental Economics and Policy, Q51, Q54, Q57, Q58, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uqseee:208090&r=all |
| By: | Jérôme Creel (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Paul Hubert (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Fabien Labondance (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to quantify the link between financialisation and financial instability, controlling for the financial and macroeconomic environment. Our main identification assumption is to represent these two concepts as a system of simultaneous joint data generating processes whose error terms are correlated. Based on panel data for EU countries from 1998, we test the null hypotheses that financialisation positively affects financial instability -a vulnerability effect- and that financial instability has a negative effect on financialisation -a trauma effect-, using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and 3SLS. We find a positive causal effect of credit/GDP on non-performing loans - a vulnerability effect- in the EU as a whole, in the Eurozone, in the core of the EU but not at its periphery, and a negative effect of non-performing loans on credit/GDP - a trauma effect - in all samples. Even when relaxing our identification assumption, both opposite effects hold. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01157936&r=all |
| By: | Korchmina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), National Research University Higher School of Economics); Lavrinovich, Maya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Fedyukin, Igor (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes legal norms and administrative practices typical for collecting the poll tax that was established in Russia by Peter I and formed the basis of state income during the eighteenth century. The research, based on various archival collections, compares the work of state apparatus in Russia’s countryside and cities. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:madd2&r=all |
| By: | Zharkov, V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Malakhov, V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Simon, Mark (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zhuk, A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Letnyakov, D. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work was the study of the theoretical and practical aspects of contemporary world politics. With the help of modern international relations theory relevant it addresses key policy issues that currently faced by most countries of the former Soviet Union both in internal and external dimensions. The study identifies particular national and state-building in post-Soviet countries, and mechanisms of action of domestic factors on the foreign policies of posts. Particular attention is paid to the political and expert discourse of newly built Eurasian Economic Union. On a conceptual level, it analyzes the mechanisms of formation macrogroup identities in these countries. |
| Keywords: | post-Soviet space, political process, macrogroup identities |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:madd1&r=all |
| By: | Nikos Bozionelos (Audencia Recherche - Audencia); Marianne Affanassieva (HUBS - Hull University Business School - Hull University) |
| Abstract: | The article focuses on whether the gender composition of the board of directors influences the decisions made by the board when they acquire firms. Acquisition decisions have long-term consequences and provide therefore a very good frame to investigate decision behavior of the board of directors. The idea is that the greater the proportion of women in a board the less likely will be for the board to bid to acquire other firms, and the less the premium (amount of money) it would offer to pay for acquiring other firms. The reason behind such behavior is the lower overconfidence of women in comparison to men. Overconfident individuals believe that they hold accurate views about the future and that the future will be favorable to them. Women are less overconfident than men. Data from all 1500 firms included in the Standard&Poors index over a 12-year period confirmed the idea. In essence this means that boards of directors with more women in them are wiser. They are less likely to bid for other firms and when then acquire such firms they are more likely to pay a realistic price (and not overpay). The study, therefore, provides a strong argument for increasing gender diversity in boards of directors. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01145846&r=all |
| By: | Shinya Fujita |
| Abstract: | Kaleckian models, which study the relation between functional income distribution and demand formation, have focused on how macro-level distribution affects macro-level performance. In the real economy, however, labour–management negotiations are held at the industry level and thus the relation between sectoral distribution and sectoral/macroeconomic performance should be considered. This study presents a two-sector Kaleckian model with intermediate inputs and investigates how a distributive change in one sector affects sectoral/macroeconomic capacity utilization and capital accumulation. The results of the presented comparative static analysis and traverse analysis demonstrate that one sector’s change in the mark-up rate shifts each sector’s rate of capacity utilization in the opposite direction, while the impact of one sector’s change in the mark-up rate on performance differs by sector. The analyses also demonstrate that the effect of a change in the mark-up rate on capital accumulation depends on the firm’s animal spirits. |
| Keywords: | Two-sector model, Mark-up pricing, Traverse analysis |
| JEL: | E12 E22 O41 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-15-005&r=all |
| By: | Landerso, Rasmus (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit); Nielsen, Helena Skyt (Aarhus University); Simonsen, Marianne (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses register-based data to investigate the effects of school starting age on crime. Through this, we provide insights into the determinants of crime-age profiles. We exploit that Danish children typically start first grade in the calendar year they turn seven, which gives rise to a discontinuity in school starting age for children born around New Year. Our analysis speaks against a simple invariant crime-age profile as is popular in criminology: we find that higher school starting age lowers the propensity to commit crime at young ages. We also find effects on the number of crimes committed for boys. |
| Keywords: | criminal charges, school start, old-for-grade, violence, property crime |
| JEL: | I21 K42 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9279&r=all |
| By: | François Meyssonnier (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | Une étude comparative des dispositifs de pilotage de la performance dans huit startups appartenant au même écosystème montre que ces entreprises recourent d’abord au suivi de trésorerie et au compte de résultat de la comptabilité générale puis aux tableaux de bord de production ou commercial et seulement ensuite aux outils classiques du contrôle de gestion que sont les calculs de coûts, le système budgétaire et le tableau de bord de pilotage global. En environnement innovant et incertain, l’introduction du contrôle de gestion n’est pas toujours nécessaire quand l’entreprise est très petite, quand elle est plus proche de sa base scientifique que des marchés (par exemple dans le cas des biotechs) et en raison du système français d’aides publiques qui rend moins urgent l’intervention du capital risque. Quand l’appropriation du contrôle de gestion est en cours, elle est souvent ralentie par la focalisation compréhensible des dirigeants sur les objectifs techniques et commerciaux et par leur culture principalement scientifique. Enfin les dispositifs de pilotage mis en oeuvre restent réduits à un usage psycho-cognitif pour l’aide à la décision du dirigeant en phase d’exploration ou sont plus développés en phase d’exploitation mais alors généralement avec un responsable du contrôle de gestion cantonné à un rôle de garde-fou et un fonctionnement interactif. Dix propositions résument les enseignements de cette recherche |
| Date: | 2015–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01147206&r=all |
| By: | Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]); Josep-Maria Salanova Grau (Hellenic Institute or Transport - Center of Research and Technologie Hellas) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a comparison between genetic and semi-greedy algorithms for a collaborative VRP in city logistics. In order to compare the performance of both algorithms on real-size test cases, we develop a cluster-first route second algorithm. The clustering phase is made by a seep algorithm, which defines the number of used vehicles and assigns a set of customers to it. Then, for each vehicle, we build a min-cost route by two methods. The first is a semi-greedy algorithm. The second is a genetic algorithm. We test both approaches on real-size instances Computational results are presented and discussed. |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une comparaison entre algorithmes génétiques et semi-greedy pour un problème de tournées de véhicules collaboratif en logistique urbaine. Pour comparer les deux algorithmes, nous proposons des algorithmes séquentiels basés sur la même phase initiale, puis les tournées sont construites par des procédures différentes. La première est de type sem-greedy ; la deuxième un algorithme génétique. Des résultats sont presents et discutés. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00986648&r=all |
| By: | Agarwal, Sumit (National University of Singapore); Amromin, Gene (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Ben-David, Itzhak (OH State University); Chomsisengphet, Souphala (US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency); Zhang, Yan (US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) |
| Abstract: | Loss mitigation actions (e.g., liquidation or renegotiation) for delinquent mortgages might be hampered by the conflicting goals of claim holders with different levels of seniority. Although similar agency problems arise in corporate bankruptcies, the mortgage market is unique because in a large share of cases junior claimants, in their role as servicers, exercise operational control over loss mitigation actions on mortgages owned by senior claimants. We show that servicers are less likely to act on the first lien mortgage owned by investors when they themselves own the second lien claim secured by the same property. When they do act, such servicers' choices are skewed towards actions that maximize the value of their junior claims, favoring modification over liquidation and short sales and deeds-in-lieu over foreclosures. We also show that such servicers find it more difficult to avoid taking actions on second lien loans when first liens are modified and that they do not modify their second lien loans on more concessionary terms. We show that these actions transfer wealth from first to second liens and moderately increase borrower welfare. |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-02&r=all |
| By: | Birru, Justin (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence that the 52-week high serves as a psychological barrier, inducing expectational errors and underreaction to news. Two clear predictions emerge and are confirmed in the data. First, nearness to a 52-week high induces expectational errors; evidence from earnings surprises and analyst price targets indicate that investor and analyst expectations are biased in a downward direction for stocks near a 52-week high and biased in an upward direction for stocks trading far from a 52-week high. Second, nearness to a 52-week high induces underreaction to news. Among positive earnings surprise stocks, post-announcement drift exists only for those stocks near a 52-week high. The evidence suggests that in contrast to currently offered preference-based explanations, a belief-based explanation may better explain the previously documented 52-week high anomalies. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-03&r=all |
| By: | Yann Rébillé; Lionel Richefort |
| Abstract: | We model a bipartite network in which links connect agents with public goods. Agents play a voluntary contribution game in which they decide how much to contribute to each public good they are connected to. We show that the problem of finding a Nash equilibrium can be posed as a non-linear complementarity one. The existence of an equilibrium point is established for a wide class of individual preferences. We then find a simple sufficient condition, on network structure only, that guarantees the uniqueness of the equilibria, and provide an easy procedure for building networks that respects this condition. |
| Date: | 2014–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01074708&r=all |
| By: | Rodrigo De-Losso; Joelson Oliveira Sampaio, Luciana Grosso Cunha |
| Abstract: | One issue that affects the economic and social development of a country is the ability of the judiciary to present itself as a legitimate instance in resolving conflicts that arise in the social, business and economic development. One way to measure this is through legitimacy of the motivations that lead citizens to trust or not in the Judiciary. We created the Brazilian Confidence in Justice Index (BCJI) as a validation argument for our confidence measure. The BCJI is a measure of perception, which shows the opinion of the population about Brazil’s judiciary. Our results indicate that race and gender are important predictors once controlled for other characteristics of respondents. Blacks have a slightly lower level of confidence in the judiciary than whites. Women also present less confidence than men. We also show that people with low income have lower levels of trust. Our findings also have other important implications for confidence in the judicial system. We show that there is a positive and strong relationship between confidence in the judicial system and propensity to seek the judiciary. |
| Keywords: | Trust in the judicial system; Institutions; Judiciary |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2015–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2015wpecon18&r=all |
| By: | Marco Buso (UNIVERSITA DI PADOVA); Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis); Tran-Phuong Tra (IAE Paris - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Paris - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine whether budget-constrained public authorities are more likely to use a PPP (Public Private Partnership) than traditional procurement methods. Then, we study the possible mechanisms underlying this choice. Our empirical test focuse s on France and consists of a two-stage approach. First, we examine the impact of budget constraints on the use of PPPs and find a positive relationship. Second, to better delineate the debt hiding effect, we exploit the 2011 changes to the ability to underwrite PPP debts. We find that debt hiding is a relevant, but not a sufficient element to explain budget-constrained governments’ attitudes towards PPP |
| Date: | 2014–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01091725&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus , via Mersin 10, Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Charl Jooste (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | We try and detect whether there exists a threshold level of inflation for the US economy over 1801-2013, beyond which it has a negative effect on economic growth. We use a combination of nonparametric (NP) and instrumental variable semiparametric (SNP-IV) methods to obtain inflation thresholds for the United States. The results suggest that the relationship between growth and inflation is hump shaped—that higher levels of inflation reduce growth more. Our results consistently show that inflation above two per cent negatively affects growth. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; growth; nonparametric; semiparametric |
| JEL: | E31 O49 C14 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-17.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Hartley, Peter R. (Rice University and University of Western Australia); Medlock, Kenneth B., III (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | It is often claimed that scarce financing prevents promising new energy technologies from attaining commercial viability. We examine this issue using a dynamic intertemporal model of the displacement of fossil fuel energy technologies by non-fossil alternatives. Our model highlights the fact that since capital used to produce energy services from fossil fuels is a sunk cost, it will continue to be used so long as the price of energy covers merely short-run operating costs. Until fossil fuels are abandoned, the price of energy is insufficient to cover even the operating costs of renewable energy production, let alone provide a competitive return on the capital employed. The full long-run costs of renewable energy production are not covered until some time after fossil fuels are abandoned. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-021&r=all |
| By: | Steigleder, Quinn (Department of Economics, Colgate University); Sparber, Chad (Department of Economics, Colgate University) |
| Abstract: | Native and foreign-born workers with a high school degree or less educational attainment provide unique occupational skills to the US labor force. This regularity might be driven, in part, by limited access to occupations for immigrants lacking legal rights to work in the US. This paper exploits exogenous policy change induced by the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) to perform triple-difference estimation examining whether legal status causes immigrants to work in occupations that use skills more similar to those of native-born workers. We find that legal status decreases the manual skill intensity of Mexican immigrants by two percentiles. It increases communication skill intensity by an equivalent amount. This effect reduces the skill gap between Mexican-born and native-born American workers by 13%. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Occupational Skills, Natural Experiment |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J61 J31 |
| Date: | 2015–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgt:wpaper:2015-05&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Kelly Devers; Rebecca Peters; Vanessa Forsberg; Emily Lawton |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Vermont’s experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | Vermont, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:0fe0d819e6b54c329691f304fd252b72&r=all |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Melbourne); Zhu, Anna (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the long-term consequences of children experiencing homelessness. Our primary goal is to assess the importance of the potential pathways linking childhood homelessness to adult employment. We use novel panel data that link survey and administrative data for a sample of disadvantaged adults who are homeless or at risk of homelessness. We find that those experiencing homelessness for the first time as children are less likely to be employed than those who were never homeless as a child. For women, this relationship is largely explained by the lower educational attainment and higher welfare receipt (both in general and in the form of mental illness-related disability payments) of those experiencing childhood homelessness. Higher rates of high-school incompletion and incarceration explain some of the link between childhood homelessness and men's employment, however, childhood homelessness continues to have a substantial direct effect on male employment rates. |
| Keywords: | employment, homelessness, welfare receipt, education, incarceration |
| JEL: | J1 J2 I2 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9250&r=all |
| By: | Mathias Lé (ACPR - Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution - Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the bank leverage adjustments after deposit insurance adoption. Banks are found to increase significantly their leverage after the introduction of deposit insurance. However, the banks’ responses appear to be heterogenous. The magnitude of the change in bank leverage decreases with (i) the size, (ii) the systemicity and (iii) the initial capitalisation of banks so that the most systemic and the most highly leveraged banks are unresponsive to deposit insurance. As a result, implementing a deposit insurance scheme could have important competitive effects. |
| Date: | 2014–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01074956&r=all |
| By: | Julie Le Gallo (UMR CRESE - Université de Franche-Comté); Yannick L'Horty (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS, ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Pascale Petit (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS, ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of lowering the cost of learning to drive in France by randomly assigning candidates to either of two groups of 18 to 25 years olds. Young people in the “test group” were given a €1000 voucher to pay for their driving lessons and were suported by a welfare centre throughout the time they were learning. Young people in the “control group” retained all the other welfare benefits for the underprivileged. The vouchers were given to 10 000 young people most of whom were not in education, employment or training. We investigate three types of outcome covering driving, housing and employment status. We analyse the specific role of local support in passing the driving test and we specifically take into account the possibility of spillover effects between treated and untreated individuals. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01100332&r=all |
| By: | Grégory Ponthière (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Nous étudions la compensation des personnes décédées prématurément dans une économie où la production génère de la pollution, et où la pollution réduit, au-delà d’un certain seuil, les chances de survie. Pour ce faire, nous caractérisons l’optimum égalitarien ex post et nous le comparons à l’équilibre de laissez-faire et à l’optimum utilitariste. Lorsque le seuil de pollution au-dessus duquel une mortalité prématurée apparait est élevé, l’optimum égalitarien ex post requiert une pollution égale à ce seuil, et inférieure à celles prévalant au laissez-faire et à l’optimum utilitariste.Mais lorsque le seuil critique de pollution est faible, le niveau de pollution associé à l’optimum égalitarien ex post est égal à celui qui prévaut au laissez-faire, et supérieur à celui associé à l’optimum utilitariste. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-01095459&r=all |
| By: | Leonardi, Marco (University of California, Berkeley); Pellizzari, Michele (University of Geneva); Tabasso, Domenico (University of Geneva) |
| Abstract: | We study the distributional effect of a wage indexation mechanism - the Scala Mobile (SM) - that heavily compressed the distribution of Italian wages during the 1970s and 1980s. The SM imposed large real wage increases at the bottom of the distribution and was essentially irrelevant for high-wage workers. We document that this mechanism triggered a strong redistribution within the firm. Skilled workers received lower wage adjustments when employed at firms with many unskilled workers and they tended to move towards more skill-intensive firms. We rationalize these findings with a simplified model of intra-firm bargaining with on-the- job search. |
| Keywords: | labor market institutions, wage indexation, inequality, intra-firm bargaining |
| JEL: | J01 J31 J50 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9254&r=all |
| By: | Amina Béji-Bécheur (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Nacima Ourahhmoune (NEOMA - Neoma Business School); Nil Özçağlar-Toulouse (LSMRC - Lille School of Management Research Center - Université Lille II - Droit et santé) |
| Abstract: | This article reflects on consumer representations of a typical southern Mediterranean dish that has remained a centerpiece of cultural encounters ever since it was developed in North Africa: couscous. France – a country whose own cuisine is world-renowned, yet which regularly ranks couscous as one of its top three favorite national dishes, and which hosts the largest North African population in Europe – seemed a fertile site for an investigation of the polysemic meanings attached to couscous, a nomad product embedded in socio-historical interrelationships on both shores of the Mediterranean. We found that consumers appropriate and adapt the product in ways that demonstrate some of the major features of Mediterranean relationships, with food as a vehicle for creative personal narratives. We emphasize the diversity of representations of couscous that help dissolve the usual northern/southern Mediterranean binaries in order to achieve a complex understanding of Mediterranean consumer behaviors. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01132487&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Bruno De Oliveira Cruz (IPEA - Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a non-technical overview of the recent investment literature with a special emphasis on the connection between technological progress and the investment decision. First of all, we acknowledge that some dramatic advances have been made in the 1990s in understanding and modelling non-convex capital adjustment schemes and irreversibility. Nonetheless, this new literature has not always satisfactorily accounted for the investment-specific (or embodied) nature of technical progress. We argue that the recent technological trends towards more embodiment have had a heavy impact on the way the investment decision is taken and is to be taken. This is turn should imply the reconsideration of many empirical results, and a more careful modelling strategy taking into account the price variables and scrupulously choosing the most appropriate level of (dis)aggregation. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01145485&r=all |
| By: | Charles Baden-Fuller (Cass Business School - Cass Business School); Vincent Mangematin (MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)) |
| Abstract: | The business model topic has generated a lot of discussion since the phrase first gained currency in academic articles the late 1990s (Zott, Amit & Massa, 2011). This growing attention culminated in the 2010 Long Range Planning Special Issue that brought the field’s leading scholars together to answer questions about what the business model was and what was its purpose. A key point that emerged was that a business model is more than a statement of how “value is created and captured”; it is a ‘model’ - and, like many other kinds of models - can appear in many guises and serve many purposes. These include being a ‘manipulable device’ that can be used to help academics or managers understand the linkages between value creation and value capture more clearly; as well as being an artefact that can be used to convey knowledge about a business and its status to others (see for instance, Morgan and Morrison, 1999; Teece, 2010, Baden-Fuller & Morgan, 2010). |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemwpa:hal-01183386&r=all |
| By: | Loucao, Sebastian (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the externalities related to hydraulic fracturing (‘hydrofracking’) in Germany, based on a detailed analysis of hydrofracking risks and potentials, and a stylized social welfare analysis related to adverse impacts of unconventional gas production on both surface and ground water resources and water supply. Natural gas is extracted by a profit-maximizing monopolist. Society faces several kinds of negative externalities, including additional water purification costs. The results of our sensitivity analysis show that the maximized welfare is in any case higher than the welfare resulting from the profit-maximizing quantities, as is predicted by our model. Also, the regulator always has to pay a subsidy in order to maximize welfare, which shows that the monopolist has an incentive to exercise his market power in order to keep the prices up for profit maximization. The monopolist’s profits are always non-negative, whereas the welfare-maximizing shale gas production generally reduces his profits. As profits do not drop below zero, however, there is no need to employ a second-best approach. We conclude that increasing costs and/or an increasing price sensitivity will lead to reduced profits and to reduced social welfare, while for an increasing choke price it is the other way around. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas; Fracking; Externalities; Water supply; Germany |
| JEL: | L71 Q31 Q34 Q42 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2014_004&r=all |
| By: | Hubert Stahn (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Agnes Tomini (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Rainwater harvesting, consisting in collecting runoff from precipitation, has been widely developed to stop groundwater declines and even raise water tables. However this expected environmental effect is not self-evident. We show in a simple setting that the success of this conjunctive use depends on whether the runoff rate is above a threshold value. Moreover, the bigger the storage capacity, the higher the runoff rate must be to obtain an environmentally efficient system. We also extend the model to include other hydrological parameters and ecological damages, which respectively increase and decrease the environmental efficiency of rainwater harvesting. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01083461&r=all |
| By: | Camille Terrier (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests whether we observe sex-discrimination in teachers' grades, and whether such biases affect pupils' achievement during the school year. I use a unique dataset containing standardized tests, teachers' attributed grades, and pupil's behavior, all three at different periods in time. Based on double-differences, the identification of the gender bias in teachers' grades suggests that (i) girls benefit from a substantive positive discrimination in math but not in French, (ii) girls' better behavior than boys, and their initial lower achievement in math do not explain much of this gender bias. Then, I use the heterogeneity in teachers' discriminatory behavior to show that classes in which teachers present a high degree of discrimination in favor of girls at the beginning of the year are also classes in which girls tend to progress more over the school year compared to boys. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-01080834&r=all |
| By: | Markku Lanne (University of Helsinki and CREATES); Henri Nyberg (University of Helsinki and University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | We explore the differences between the causal and noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) models in capturing the real activity-stock return-relationship. Unlike the conventional linear VAR model, the noncausal VAR model is capable of accommodating various nonlinear characteristics of the data. In quarterly U.S. data, we find strong evidence in favor of noncausality, and the best causal and noncausal VAR models imply quite different dynamics. In particular, the linear VAR model appears to underestimate the importance of the stock return shock for the real activity, and the real activity shock for the stock return. |
| Keywords: | Noncausal VAR model, non-Gaussianity, generalized forecast error variance decomposition, business cycles, fundamentals. |
| JEL: | C32 C58 E17 E44 |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2015-36&r=all |
| By: | Beaman, Lori (Northwestern University and Innovations for Poverty Action); Karlan, Dean (Yale University and Innovations for Poverty Action); Thuysbaert, Bram (Ghent University and Innovations for Poverty Action) |
| Abstract: | High transaction and contracting costs are often thought to create credit and savings market failures in developing countries. The microfinance movement grew largely out of business process innovations and subsidies that reduced these costs. We examine an alternative approach, one that infuses no external capital and introduces no change to formal contracts: an improved "technology" for managing informal, collaborative village-based savings groups. Such groups allow, in theory, for more efficient and lower-cost loans and informal savings, and in practice have been scaled up by international non-profit organizations to millions of members. Individuals save together and then lend the accumulated funds back out to themselves. In a randomized evaluation in Mali, we find improvements in food security, consumption smoothing, and buffer stock savings. Although we do find suggestive evidence of higher agricultural output, we do not find overall higher income or expenditure. We also do not find downstream impacts on health, education, social capital, and female decision-making power. Could this have happened before, without any external intervention? Yes. That is what makes the result striking, that indeed there were no resources provided nor legal institutional changes, yet the NGO-guided, improved informal processes led to important changes for households. |
| JEL: | D12 D91 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:136&r=all |
| By: | Plamen Nemov (BI Norwegian Business School) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:14-22&r=all |
| By: | Fotis, Panagiotis; Polemis, Michael; Eleftheriou, Konstantinos |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to derive the formula of Gross Upward Pricing Pressure Index (GUPPI), used on duopoly markets with differentiated products, when we allow for unilateral equity stakes (expressed as a function of victim's market share) to be endogenously determined. The results show that the unilateral effects of partial acquisitions, as they are measured by GUPPI when the percentage of equity stakes of the acquirer in the target firm is considered endogenous, may be higher than in the case where the said percentage is exogenously determined. |
| Keywords: | Differentiated Product Markets; GUPPI; Logit Demand; Endogenous Partial Acquisitions |
| JEL: | G3 L13 L16 |
| Date: | 2015–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66049&r=all |
| By: | Petri Böckerman (Turku School of Economics, Labor Institute for Economic Research and IZA); Ohto Kanninen (Labour Institute for Economic Research); Ilpo Suoniemi (Labour Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of the replacement rule of a social insurance system on sickness absence. The elasticity of absence with respect to the benefit level is a critical parameter in defining the optimal sickness insurance scheme. A pre-determined, piecewise linear policy rule in which the replacement rate is determined by past earnings allows identification of the causal effect using a regression kink design. Using a large administrative dataset, we find a substantial and robust behavioral response. The statistically significant point estimate of the elasticity of the duration of sickness absence with respect to the replacement rate in a social insurance system is on the order of 1. |
| Keywords: | Sick pay, labor supply, sickness absence, paid sick leave, regression kink design |
| JEL: | C72 C73 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp97&r=all |
| By: | Emmanuel Farhi; Xavier Gabaix |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theory of optimal taxation with behavioral agents. We use a general behavioral framework that encompasses a wide range of behavioral biases such as misperceptions, internalities and mental accounting. We revisit the three pillars of optimal taxation: Ramsey (linear commodity taxation to raise revenues and redistribute), Pigou (linear commodity taxation to correct externalities) and Mirrlees (nonlinear income taxation). We show how the canonical optimal tax formulas are modified and lead to a rich set of novel economic insights. We also show how to incorporate nudges in the optimal taxation frameworks, and jointly characterize optimal taxes and nudges. We explore the Diamond-Mirrlees productive efficiency result and the Atkinson-Stiglitz uniform commodity taxation proposition, and find that they are more likely to fail with behavioral agents. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:305366&r=all |
| By: | Wahyoe Soedarmono (Universitas Siswa Bangsa Internasional, Faculty of Business / Sampoerna School of Business); Romora Edward Sitorus (Universitas Siswa Bangsa Internasional, Faculty of Business / Sampoerna School of Business); Amine Tarazi (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société) |
| Abstract: | From a sample of publicly-traded banks in the Asia-Pacific region over the 1998-2012 period, we document that banks with higher charter value are able to insulate themselves from systemic risk by acquiring more capital. Nevertheless, we find that the self-disciplining role of bank charter value is more pronounced for countries with lower depth of credit information sharing. Our results also show that in countries with lower quality of private credit bureaus, higher charter value enhances capitalization, and alleviates systemic risk in banking. Overall, these findings suggest that higher bank charter value might be detrimental to systemic stability for countries where the credit reporting system is of better quality. |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01174111&r=all |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Regardless of the type of school attended (public or private, advantaged or disadvantaged), 15-year-old students spent more time in mathematics lessons in 2012 than in 2003. The average amount of time spent in mathematics classes varies by more than a factor of two across countries and economies. The more time spent in mathematics classes, the better students perform, on average; but giving students more work in class is often not enough to improve learning outcomes. |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:54-en&r=all |
| By: | Ben-David, Itzhak (OH State University); Birru, Justin (OH State University); Prokopenya, Viktor (Swiss Business School) |
| Abstract: | We document that retail day traders in the Forex market attribute random success to their own skill and, as a consequence, increase risk taking. Although past performance provides little information about future success for these traders, they increase leverage and trade concentration with gains, but not with losses. Furthermore, there is a large discontinuity in risk taking around zero past week returns: traders increase leverage dramatically following weeks of small gains, relative to weeks of small losses. The effects are stronger for novice traders, consistent with more intense "learning" in early trading periods. |
| JEL: | D12 D40 L51 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-17&r=all |
| By: | Sudharshan Reddy Paramati; Rakesh Gupta; Eduardo Roca |
| Keywords: | Bilateral trade linkages, stock market interdependence, AGDCC GARCH models, time series models |
| JEL: | G15 G01 C32 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:fpaper:finance:201506&r=all |
| By: | Antoinette Baujard (GATE - GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Frédéric Gavrel (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS, CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Herrade Igersheim (BETA - Bureau d'économie théorique et appliquée - CNRS - Université Nancy II - Université de Strasbourg); Jean-Francois Laslier (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Isabelle Lebon (Economie publique et choix social - CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1) |
| Abstract: | Under evaluative voting, the voter freely grades each candidate on a numerical scale, with the winning candidate being determined by the sum of the grades they receive. This paper compares evaluative voting with the two-round system, reporting on an experiment, conducted during the 2012 French presidential election, which attracted 2,340 participants. Here we show that the two-round system favors “exclusive” candidates, that is candidates who elicit strong feelings, while evaluative rules favor “inclusive” candidates, that is candidates who attract the support of a large span of the electorate. These differences are explained by two complementary reasons : the opportunity for the voter to support several candidates under evaluative voting rules, and the specific pattern of strategic voting under the two-round voting rule. |
| Date: | 2014–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01090234&r=all |
| By: | Fabienne Orsi (SESSTIM - Sciences économiques et sociales, systèmes de santé, sociétés - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - ORS PACA - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] - INSERM - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université, AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Jean-Benoît Zimmermann (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Faced with the rise of resistance to monotherapies, the artemisinine-combination therapies (ACTs) have become the early 2000s, the golden standard in the fight against plasmodium falciparum malaria. Because of the need to substitute these therapies to older drugs and given the vastly more expensive ACTs, WHO has established itself in global prescriber, enacting, on the one hand, health policy recommendations towards the endemic countries and organizing, on the other, a global supply chain. This article analyzes the disconnect that results from this model of governance, between the national and global levels and the consequences on the health status of malarious countries. |
| Abstract: | Face à la montée des résistances aux monothérapies, les combinaisons thérapeutiques à base d'artémisinine (CTA) sont devenues, au début des années 2000, le golden standard de la lutte contre le paludisme à plasmodium falciparum. En raison de la nécessité de substituer ces thérapies aux anciens médicaments et compte-tenu du prix énormément plus élevé des CTA, l'OMS s'est posé en prescripteur global, édictant d'un côté des recommandations de politique sanitaire en direction des pays endémiques et organisant, de l'autre, une filière de production mondiale. Cet article analyse la déconnexion inhérente à ce modèle de gouvernance, entre les niveaux national et mondial et les conséquences qui en découlent quant à la situation sanitaire des pays impaludés. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01091331&r=all |
| By: | Yonatan Ben-Shalom; David C. Stapleton |
| Abstract: | Using Social Security administrative data, we compare the cross-cohort characteristics and 5-year employment outcomes of young adults (aged 18–39) who were first awarded Social Security disability benefits from 1996 through 2007. |
| Keywords: | social security, Disability, Beneficiaries |
| JEL: | I J |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:3e972cd9e6964b0b9b8dc0fe5a1d21ab&r=all |
| By: | Eisenbeis, Robert (?); Herring, Richard (?) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on how the Federal Reserve (Fed) responded to the early stage of the international financial crisis, from 2007 through 2008, which it characterized as a short-term liquidity problem, despite growing evidence of potential insolvencies among some of the largest banks and investment banks [1]. The Fed provided large amounts of liquidity to both domestic and international institutions when credit risk spreads suddenly widened in September of 2007 and still more liquidity when these spreads virtually exploded in September of 2008 in the wake of the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers [2]. We argue that signs of increasing financial fragility and potential insolvencies appeared much earlier than fall of 2007. If these had been recognized and acted upon by the regulatory authorities, then it is possible that the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression might have been substantially mitigated. While it is inherently difficult to disentangle issues of illiquidity from insolvency, the failure to recognize and address the insolvency problems in several major institutions delayed necessary adjustments and undermined confidence in the financial system. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-21&r=all |
| By: | Masaaki Fujii (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Akihiko Takahashi (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Collateralization with daily margining and the so-called OIS-discounting have become a new standard in the post-crisis financial market. Although there appeared a large amount of literature to deal with a so-called multi-curve framework, a complete picture for a multi-currency setup with currency funding spreads, which are necessary to explain non-zero cross currency basis, can be rarely found since our initial attempts [9, 10, 11]. This note gives an extension of these works regarding a general framework of interest rates for a fully collateralized market. We provide a new formulation of the currency funding spread which is more suitable in the presence of non-zero correlation to the collateral rates. In particular, the last half of the paper is dedicated to develop a discretization of the HJM framework including stochastic collateral rates, LIBORs, foreign exchange rates as well as currency funding spreads with a fixed <i>tenor structure</i>, which makes it readily implementable as a traditional Market Model of interest rates. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2015cf987&r=all |
| By: | Carmassi, Jacopo (University LUISS Guido Carli); Herring, Richard J. (University of PA) |
| Abstract: | Before the global 2008 financial crisis, most officials appeared not to have anticipated the problems that would need to be addressed if a large cross-border bank should need to be resolved. During and after the financial crisis, this issue surged to the top of the policy agenda. Events made clear that several institutions had become too big and too complex to fail: new rules were needed to make resolution of global banks possible, without cost to taxpayers or damaging spillovers to the economy. After the crisis, the G-20 gave the Financial Stability Board (FSB) a mandate to identify Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) and to ensure that each had a credible recovery and resolution plan. This study investigates the complexity of the 29 institutions that have been designated as G-SIBs in 2013. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-10&r=all |
| By: | Wolfgang Frimmel; Thomas Horvath; Mario Schnalzenberger; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | In general, retirement is seen as a pure labor supply phenomenon, but firms can have strong incentives to send expensive older workers into retirement. Based on the seniority wage model developed by Lazear (1979), we discuss steep seniority wage profiles as incentives for firms to dismiss older workers before retirement. Conditional on individual retirement incentives, e.g., social security wealth or health status, the steepness of the wage profile will have different incentives for workers as compared to firms when it comes to the retirement date. Using an instrumental variable approach to account for selection of workers in our firms and for reverse causality, we find that firms with higher labor costs for older workers are associated with lower job exit age. |
| Keywords: | retirement, seniority wages, firm incentives |
| JEL: | J14 J26 J31 H55 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:cdlwps:wp1506&r=all |
| By: | Nicola Brandt |
| Abstract: | France devotes a great deal of resources to vocational training for youths and especially adults, but the system is unduly complex and yields rather poor returns. The basic literacy and numeracy skills of many French adults remain weak in international comparison, with harmful effects on employment opportunities, wages and well-being. Access to basic skills training is poor for those who need it most, many of whom come from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds. Secondary vocational education and apprenticeship training still suffer from a serious image problem in the minds of French families, even though the latter have a good track record. The government has succeeded in ensuring that the number of apprenticeships is growing, but that is mostly due to those studying at the tertiary level or at least for a higher secondary diploma. The labour market outcomes of those with only shorter vocational qualifications are not good, and quality in that stream needs to improve. To do so better teachers and workplace trainers need to be attracted to the field, especially individuals who can better link practical experience and theoretical concepts. The financing of the adult training system involves complex collection mechanisms even following a major recent overhaul. Making further changes will have to confront entrenched interests, even if the use of the training levy to finance business groups and unions has now ended. The goal is to direct more training funds to workers in small firms who have the weakest skills as well as to jobseekers, but this might be more easily achieved by shifting the funding base from a levy on employers to fiscal incentives or direct subsidies. There remains a need to align responsibilities for adult training with corresponding control over funds. Workers are henceforth to be given personal training accounts in which they can accumulate rights to up to 150 hours of training. But the enormous number of providers and courses on offer calls for greater efforts to develop good guidance, evaluation and certification systems to ensure the training finally chosen is appropriate and of sufficiently high quality. |
| Keywords: | vocational training, quality, adult learning, apprenticeships |
| JEL: | H52 I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1260-en&r=all |
| By: | Katinka C. Van Cranenburgh (ESADE Business School); Daniel Arenas (ESADE Business School); Jennifer Goodman (ESADE Business School); Céline Louche (Audencia Recherche - Audencia) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to deepen the discussion about religious organisations’ (ROs) potential to practise their faith by means of their investments, rather than keeping both issues separate. The authors adopted a qualitative exploratory approach using seven cases of social shareholder engagement (SSE) by Christian organisations. It focused on creating knowledge from best practices. Within the three Christian organisations studied, the authors identified three significant features that relate to their religious nature and affect their SSE: having a structured belief system, a grassroots network and a long-term perspective. These features can be instrumental in impacting company behaviour and society at large. The authors chose three ROs for their relevance and comparative features, but this limited sample size makes it hard to generalise the research findings. This paper invites ROs to review their potential for actively owning their shares to be consistent with their faith and create change in business and society at large. Besides, ROs, with their unwavering belief system, extensive grassroots networks and long-term approach, are a force in the shareholder engagement field to be reckoned with by business. The paper presents multi cases of ROs active in using their investments to create change in companies and society at large. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01067933&r=all |
| By: | Elvira Periac (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Sébastien Gand (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Jean-Claude Sardas (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) |
| Abstract: | RésuméEn Europe, le principe d’intégration environnementale fait consensus, et avec lui l’idée de développer des politiques publiques transversales permettant d’intégrer toutes les dimensions de l’environnement dans les politiques sectorielles. Mais comment mettre en œuvre concrètement ces politiques sur les territoires? Dans la littérature sur l’implémentation des politiques publiques, le courant de recherche sur la street level bureaucracy souligne le rôle des agents publics de terrain et de l’exercice de leur liberté discrétionnaire1 dans l’élaboration des politiques publiques sociales, traditionnelles de l’Etat providence.Notre question de recherche porte sur ce que devient ce rôle des agents publics, transposé sur une politique d’intégration environnementale : comment et en quoi la liberté discrétionnaire des agents publics chargés de la mise en œuvre d’une politique d’intégration environnementale sur les territoires joue-‐t-‐elle un rôle dans l’élaboration concrète de cette politique ? Prend-‐t-‐elle des formes originales sur ce type spécifique de politique et de contexte ? Pour quels effets ?Sur la base d’études de cas menées dans une administration française dans laquelle se monte une activité chargée de l’implémentation d’une politique publique d’intégration environnementale, nous argumentons que non seulement le contexte peu stabilisé crée par ce type de politique publique laisse une marge de manœuvre aux agents pour exercer leur liberté discrétionnaire, mais qu’il stimule cet exercice, en faisant un outil d’élaboration des dispositions et orientations manquantes de la politique publique. Nous mettons ainsi en lumière comment, dans ce type de politique publique, la liberté discrétionnaire fonctionne comme moyen d’expérimenter et de renforcer l’efficacité de la politique publique menée. Sur le plan théorique, nous caractérisons que cela implique une évolution de la figure du street level bureaucrat, et donc empiriquement de ce qui est attendu des agents publics sur le terrain. |
| Date: | 2014–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01083894&r=all |
| By: | Cici, Gjergji; Kempf, Alexander; Sorhage, Christoph |
| Abstract: | Rationality would suggest that advice-seeking investors receive benefits from costly financial advice. However, evidence documenting these benefits for U.S. investors has so far been lacking. This paper is the first to document that U.S. mutual fund investors indeed receive one of the many previously hypothesized benefits associated with financial advice. The documented benefit comes from valuable tax-management advice that helps investors avoid taxable fund distributions and becomes even more valuable when investors face distributions that can cause large and hard-to-predict tax liabilities. Additional evidence suggests that financial advice helps with other aspects of tax management such as tax-loss selling. |
| Keywords: | Mutual funds,Taxable fund distributions,Financial advisors |
| JEL: | D14 G11 G24 H24 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1209r5&r=all |
| By: | Robert Shimer; Iván Werning |
| Abstract: | We study pairwise trading mechanisms in the presence of private information and limited commitment, whereby either trader can walk away from a proposed trade when he learns the trading price. We show that when one trader's information is relevant for the other trader's value of the asset, optimal trading arrangements may necessarily conceal the traders' information. While limited commitment itself may not be costly, it shapes how prices transmit information. |
| JEL: | D82 D83 G14 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21495&r=all |
| By: | Gerlach, Stefan; Kugler, Peter |
| Abstract: | Expectations of Sterling returning to Gold have been disregarded in empirical work on the US dollar – Sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s. We incorporate such considerations in a PPP model of the exchange rate, letting the probability of a return to gold follow a logistic function. We draw several conclusions: (i) the PPP model works well from spring 1919 to spring 1925; (ii) wholesale prices outperform consumer prices; (iii) allowing for a return to gold leads to a higher speed of adjustment of the exchange rate to PPP; (iv) interest rate differentials and the relative monetary base are crucial determinants of the expected return to gold; (v) the probability of a return to Gold peaked at about 72% in late 1924 and but fell to about 60% in early 1925; and (vi) our preferred model does not support the Keynes’ view that Sterling was overvalued after the return to gold. |
| JEL: | E5 F31 N1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10761&r=all |
| By: | Ahlerup, Pelle (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Tengstam, Sven (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | In the context of the global land rush, some portray large-scale land acquisitions as a potent threat to the livelihoods of already marginalized rural farming households in Africa. In order to avoid the potential pitfall of studying a particular project that may well have atypical effects, this paper systematically investigates the impact on commercial farm wage incomes for rural smallholder households of all pledged investments in the agricultural sector in Zambia between 1994 and 2007. The results suggest that agricultural investments are associated with a robust moderate positive effect, but only for households with a relative shortage of land.<p> |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Investments; sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | N57 O13 O16 Q12 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0624&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Kelly Devers; Rachel Burton; Emily Lawton; Amanda Napoles |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Maine's experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | Maine, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ee2e4379a88b4ce2967ea883fc7a669e&r=all |
| By: | Michaely, Roni; Popadak, Jillian; Vincent, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Corporate leverage has decreased markedly in the U.S. since 1992. In contrast to press coverage of hedge funds increasing debt, increases in institutional investments, primarily by mutual funds, account for part of this deleveraging. We use implied mutual fund trades constructed from individual-investor flows as exogenous variation in institutional ownership for estimation. Supporting the hypothesis institutions contributed to deleveraging, our estimates increase significantly after regulatory reforms incentivized stronger institutional governance. Firms deleverage by reducing debt and transitioning to debt associated with enhanced monitoring and efficiency. Counterfactual simulations indicate aggregate leverage would have been eight percentage points higher without institutions' influence. |
| Keywords: | Finance, Financial Stability, Corporate Leverage, Institutional Investors, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, Corporate Governance, Agency Costs, Capital Structure, Debt Structure |
| JEL: | E44 G3 G32 G34 G38 K22 |
| Date: | 2015–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66128&r=all |
| By: | Dana Petersen; Christal Ramos; Emily Lawton; Amanda Napoles |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from South Carolina’s experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | South Carolina, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:0bc2341471774504b62ee7ce2afb6524&r=all |
| By: | Richard S. J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, UK; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; CESifo, Munich, Germany) |
| Abstract: | I assessed five statements in the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group II (WG2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC’s assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture all but ignores human agency and human ingenuity. The statement in the SPM on violent conflict is much stronger than in the chapter and indeed the literature. AR5 ignores the literature on the impacts of climate change on cold-related mortality and morbidity. On poverty traps, WG2 reaches a conclusion that is not supported by the cited papers. The total impacts of climate change were assessed in four subsequent IPCC report. Although there are no statistically significant differences between the assessment periods in the underlying literature, the subsequent SPMs reach very different conclusions. In sum, the IPCC has yet to reach the quality that one would expect from a gold standard. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; impacts; IPCC; agriculture; health; poverty; violent conflict; total economic impact |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:7815&r=all |
| By: | Marie Boltz (IEP Paris - Sciences Po Paris - Institut d'études politiques de Paris, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics); Isabelle Chort (PSL - Paris Sciences et Lettres - Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine, DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD]) |
| Abstract: | In a polygamous society, all monogamous women are potentially at risk of polygamy. However, both the anthropological and economic literatures are silent on the potential impact of the risk of polygamy on economic decisions of monogamous wives. We explore this issue for Senegal using individual panel data. We first estimate a Cox model for the probability of transition to polygamy. Second, we estimate the impact of the predicted risk of polygamy on monogamous wives' savings. We find a positive impact of the risk of polygamy on female savings entrusted to formal or informal institutions, suggestive of self-protective strategies. This increase in savings comes at the cost of reduced consumption, both in terms of household food expenditures and wives' private non-food expenses. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01183453&r=all |
| By: | Alfred Galichon; Scott Kominers; Simon Weber |
| Abstract: | In this paper we relate the Equilibrium Assignment Problem (EAP), which is underlying in several economics models, to a system of nonlinear equations that we call the "nonlinear Bernstein-Schr\"odinger system", which is well-known in the linear case, but whose nonlinear extension does not seem to have been studied. We apply this connection to derive an existence result for the EAP, and an efficient computational method. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.05114&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Dubé; Xueming Luo; Zheng Fang |
| Abstract: | We empirically test an information economics based theory of social preferences in which ego utility and self-signaling can potentially crowd out the effect of consumption utility on choices. Two large-scale, randomized controlled field experiments involving a consumer good and charitable donations are conducted using a subject pool of actual consumers. We find that bundling relatively large charitable donations with a consumer good can generate non-monotonic regions of demand. Consumers also self-report significantly lower ratings of “feeling good about themselves” when a large donation is bundled with a large price discount for the good. The combined evidence supports the self-signaling theory whereby price discounts crowd out a consumer’s self-inference of altruism from buying a good bundled with a charitable donation. Alternative theories of motivation crowding are unable to fit the non-monotonic moments in the data. A structural model of self-signaling is fit to the data to quantify the economic magnitude of ego utility and its role in driving consumer decisions. |
| JEL: | C7 C72 C9 C93 D03 D11 D12 D8 D81 M3 M30 M31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21475&r=all |
| By: | Mitri Kitti (Department of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | Equilibrium payoffs corresponding to subgame perfect equilibria in pure strategies are characterized for infinitely repeated games with discounted payoffs. The equilibrium payoff set of a game is a fixed-point of set-valued operators introduced in the paper. The new operator formalism is utilized in showing the folk theorem for repeated games with unequal but constant discount rates. When the players become more patient, the equilibrium payoff set converges to the fixed-point of an asymptotic operator. This limit set corresponds to the subgame perfect equilibria of a continuous-time repeated game. It is shown that the limit set is convex, which implies that pure strategies are sufficient in obtaining all payoffs in the limit. However, this set differs from the set of all feasible and individually rational payoffs, when the discount rates are not equal. The limit sets for constant discount rates can be used in analyzing the outer limit of equilibrium payoffs when the discount factors increase but discount rates are not fixed. |
| Keywords: | repeated game, equilibrium payoff set, folk theorem, unequal discount rates, continuous-time game |
| JEL: | C72 C73 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp98&r=all |
| By: | Stark, Oded; Nicinska, Anna |
| Abstract: | We present and test the idea that bequest planning is linked with the experience of inheriting. We consider “a family tradition of bequeathing” as a channel through which the intention to bequeath is molded by and is positively correlated with the experience of inheriting. We use data from the Survey on Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to test whether, other things held constant, inheriting has a positive influence on the intention to bequeath. We find that the experience of inheriting enhances the intension to bequeath as predicted by the family tradition model, independently of the positive impact of wealth. We also find that the expectation of inheriting has a positive impact on the intention to bequeath, controlling for the expected increase in wealth on account of future inheritances. Apparently, it is not the financial means that inheritance provides which account for its impact on the intention to bequeath; it is rather the family tradition of bequeathing instilled through inheriting. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational transfers, Bequest behavior, Experience of inheriting, Expectation of inheriting, Intention to bequeath, Family tradition, Consumer/Household Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, D02, D03, D19, D64, H31, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:208141&r=all |
| By: | Deller, Steven C. (University of WI); Brown, Laura (University of WI); Canto, Amber (University of WI) |
| Abstract: | In this exploratory analysis we explore the interplay between poverty, public health and access to local foods using data for U.S. counties. We ask one simple question: Does access to local foods dampen or mitigate the relationship between poverty and health? As expected we find a strong relationship between poverty and public health and we also find that access to higher levels of local foods activity is associated with higher levels of public health. The interaction between poverty and local foods, however, suggests that higher concentrations of both are associated with poorer, not better health. From a global perspective we find that the presence of local foods related activity tends to have a positive impact on health, but that relationship is not consistent across the United States. Our results suggest that the interplay between local foods, poverty and health is subtle and the resulting policy implications may make sense in some parts of the United States but not in others. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:wisagr:572&r=all |
| By: | Eyles, Andrew; Machin, Steve |
| Abstract: | We study the origins of what has become one of the most radical and encompassing programmes of school reform seen in the recent past amongst advanced countries – the introduction of academy schools to English secondary education. Academies are state schools that are allowed to run in an autonomous manner which is free from local authority control. Almost all academies are conversions from already existent state schools and so are school takeovers that enable more autonomy. Our analysis shows that this first round of academy conversions that took place in the 2000s generated significant improvements in the quality of pupil intake and in pupil performance. There is evidence of heterogeneity as improvements only occur for schools experiencing the largest increase in their school autonomy relative to their predecessor state. Analysis of mechanisms points to changes in headteachers and management structure as key factors underpinning these improvements in pupil outcomes. |
| Keywords: | academies; pupil intake; pupil performance |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10772&r=all |
| By: | Fischer, Ronald (University of Chile); Huerta, Diego (Central Bank of Chile); Valenzuela, Patricio (University of Chile) |
| Abstract: | This article examines whether the direction of the effect of inequality on private credit depends on the capital constraints of individual countries, as predicted by Balmaceda and Fischer (2010). Consistent with the model's predictions, we find that greater income inequality leads to a higher ratio of private credit to GDP in economies with low incomes and weak legal rights, whereas the reverse is true in economies with high incomes and strong legal rights. |
| JEL: | F34 G15 G21 G38 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-12&r=all |
| By: | Carol Irvin |
| Abstract: | The first Disabled and Elderly Health Programs Group (DEHPG) Research Summit was held November 3 and 4, 2014 at the central offices of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) in Baltimore, Maryland. |
| Keywords: | long-term services and supports (LTSS), Medicaid, research agenda, home and community-based services (HCBS) |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ff2aa9d0a9144048916e6c9778f99c81&r=all |
| By: | Panicos O. Demetriades; Peter L. Rousseau |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence from a large number of countries which demonstrates the changing nature of the finance-growth nexus. Specifically, we show that financial depth is no longer a significant determinant of long-run growth. Instead we find evidence to suggest that certain financial reforms have sizeable growth effects, which can be positive or negative depending on how well banks are regulated and supervised. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:15/20&r=all |
| By: | Pietro Bonaldi; Ali Hortaçsu; Jakub Kastl |
| Abstract: | We propose a framework for estimation of spillovers between funding costs of individual banks. The estimation proceeds in three steps: First, using data from liquidity auctions of the European Central Bank, we estimate the funding costs in a given week for each individual bank. In the second step, we apply the adaptive elastic net (a LASSO type estimator) to this panel to estimate the financial network. Finally, using the estimated network we propose new measures of the systemicness and vulnerability of each bank. Our measure of systemicness has quite a natural interpretation, since it can roughly be viewed as the total externality a bank would impose on the funding costs of all other banks in the system. We estimate that most of the banks have fairly weak links and, therefore, if one were to suffer an adverse shock there would likely be a rather limited effect on the other ones. On the other hand, there are a few banks that are quite central: an increase in their funding costs would result in a very significant increase (up to 95 bp per 100 bp shock) in the funding costs of the other banks. Our vulnerability scores estimated using data from 2007-2008 are positively correlated with the probability of a bank being bailed out later. |
| JEL: | G1 G2 L0 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21462&r=all |
| By: | Bjarni G. Einarsson; Kristófer Gunnlaugsson; Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson; Thórarinn G. Pétursson |
| Abstract: | Iceland suffered a severe financial crisis in 2008 which can only be described as the perfect storm, with the currency falling by more than 50% and over 90% of the domestic financial system collapsing. What followed was a deep recession. This was not the first financial crisis experienced in Iceland, however. In fact, over a period spanning almost one and a half century (1875-2013), we identify over twenty instances of financial crises of different types. Recognising that crises tend to come in clusters, we identify six serious multiple financial crisis episodes occurring every fifteen years on average. These episodes seem to share many commonalities and the tragic but universal truth that “we’ve been there before” when it comes to financial crises really becomes all too clear. We find that these episodes usually involve a large collapse in domestic demand that in most cases serves as a trigger for theensuing crisis. What typically follows is a currency crisis, sometimes coinciding with a sudden stop of capital inflows and an inflation crisis, and most often a banking crisis. In line with international evidence, we find that contractions coinciding with these large financial crises tend to be both deeper and longer than regular business cycle downturns. Although the crisis episodes share many common elements, each one of them is also different to some extent. We are therefore not able to find financial variables that consistently provide an early-warning signal of an upcoming financial crisis across all the six episodes. However, we find that some key macroeconomic variables give a somewhat more robust signal. Our results also suggest that five of the six multiple crisis episodes coincide with a global financial crisis of some type, and that the most serious global episodes coincide with a twoto threefold increase in the probability of a financial crisis in Iceland. A companion paper (Part II) extends our analysis of the Icelandic financial boom-bust cycle to identifying financial cycles in our long data set, i.e. cycles that are of lower frequency and last longer than common business cycles and are characterised by co-movement of many key financial variables and often have peaks closely associated with financial crises. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp68&r=all |
| By: | Jonathan Ladinsky |
| Abstract: | This issue brief provides guidance on what it will take to develop a first-class performance management system that allows states to collect and report accurate data under the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act legislation, which modifies Workforce Investment Act measures. |
| Keywords: | WOIA, WIA, Performance Management |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:57759b175e3646c989bb3c49aae52c11&r=all |
| By: | Mason, Joseph R. (LA State University); Imerman, Michael B. (Lehigh University); Lee, Hong (LA State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is designed to illustrate the limitations and potential bias in using loan-level data on securitized residential mortgage for studying the risk of RMBS during and around the time of the financial crisis. Using trustee data on mortgage characteristics provided by BlackBox Logic (BBx), we examine the extent to which undisclosed mortgage characteristics distort the available data and impact risk analysis of RMBS collateral pools. Our findings illustrate that substantial amounts of loan characteristic data in crucial fields like Occupancy, Property Type, Loan Purpose, and FICO are missing from the trustee data. The frequency of missing values is staggering, ranging from just under 9% for Property Type to 29% for FICO, up to almost 85% for Originator Name, all variables used in recent studies. The omissions are correlated to some degree with the securitization sponsor and even more dramatically with the identity of the deal trustee. There are profound implications for both empirical research as well as policy decisions in the post-crisis era. First, any analysis of RMBS collateral should be built not upon the entirety of mortgage databases, but on stratified samples and should otherwise control for important sponsor and trustee fixed effects. Furthermore, the revisions for Regulation AB which require loan-level disclosure should be adopted in order to standardize mortgage disclosure. |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-11&r=all |
| By: | Chernenko, Sergey (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | I study the incentives and performance of CDO collateral managers, asset management firms responsible for the selection of collateral in ABS CDOs that figured prominently in the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Specialized asset managers with few reputational concerns invest in riskier collateral and gain market share at the expense of more diversified investment managers. Controlling for observable deal characteristics, the IRR of specialized managers' CDOs is 5.8% lower. The results cannot be explained by greater optimism or lower expertise of specialized managers. Deals of specialized managers have smaller equity tranches and invest in higher yielding collateral securities from more recent vintages. This collateral suffers significantly larger losses, even controlling for at-issuance rating and spread. The results point to greater risk taking incentives as one downside of specialization in asset management. |
| JEL: | G01 G23 G32 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-12&r=all |
| By: | Ward, Shannon; Williams, J.; van Ours, Jan (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the effects of delinquency and arrest on school leaving using information on males from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. We use a multivariate mixed proportional hazard framework in order to account for common unobserved confounders and reverse causality. Our key finding is that delinquency as well as arrest leads to early school leaving. Further investigation reveals that the effect of delinquency is largely<br/>driven by income generating crimes, and the effect of both income generating crime and arrest are greater when onset occurs at younger ages. These findings are consistent with a criminal capital accumulation mechanism. On the basis of our sample, we show that taking into account the proportion of young men affected by delinquency and arrest, that the overall reduction in education due to delinquency is at least as large as the reduction due to arrest. This highlights the need for crime prevention efforts to extend beyond youth who come into contact with the justice system. |
| Keywords: | duration models; delinquency; arrest; education |
| JEL: | C4 I2 K4 D0 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:bd8e95d4-717e-42a0-982e-057da9c6d56f&r=all |
| By: | Antonello Lobianco (Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière, INRA - AgroParisTech); Arnaud Dragicevic (Chaire Forêts pour Demain, AgroParisTech-Office National des Forêts); Antoine Leblois (Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière, INRA - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Using the Markowitz mean-value (M-V) portfolio model, we study forest planning looking at arbitration between productivity and risk. By weighting the forest productivity with factors of future climate change effects, we compute the optimal tree species mixes, within reach of forest managers, in ninety French administrative departments. Considering three productivity measures (wood production, carbon sequestration and economic valorization) and their respective variances, we found that: a) optimizing productivity and carbon sequestration yields allocations close to the empirical ones; b) forest managers prefer low variance to high productivity, i.e. their revealed risk aversion is high; and c) unlike maximizing wood productivity or carbon sequestration, which lead to similar portfolios, maximizing the economic value of wood production increases (decreases) wood production and carbon sequestration under risk aversion (neutrality). Under high risk aversion, the economic valorization would lead to a high species specialization, which is very unlikely in reality. In all considered scenarios, the objectives set out in the Kyoto Protocol would be attained, which puts into question its relevance in terms of additionality. |
| Keywords: | bioeconomics, forest planning, mean-variance model, mixed-species forests, climate Change |
| JEL: | G17 Q2 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lef:wpaper:2015-07&r=all |
| By: | Leonardi, Marco; Pellizzari, Michele; Tabasso, Domenico |
| Abstract: | We study the distributional effect of a wage indexation mechanism - the \textit{Scala Mobile} (SM) - that heavily compressed the distribution of Italian wages during the 1970s and 1980s. The SM imposed large real wage increases at the bottom of the distribution and was essentially irrelevant for high-wage workers. We document that this mechanism triggered a strong redistribution within the firm. Skilled workers received lower wage adjustments when employed at firms with many unskilled workers and they tended to move towards more skill-intensive firms. We rationalize these findings with a simplified model of intra-firm bargaining with on-the-job search. |
| Keywords: | inequality; intra-firm bargaining; labor market institutions; wage indexation |
| JEL: | J01 J31 J50 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10770&r=all |
| By: | Fulvio Castellacci (TIK Centre, University of Oslo, Norway); Jose Miguel Natera (Universidad Metropolitana, Mexico) |
| Abstract: | The paper carries out an analysis of long-run development paths in Latin America in the period 1970-2010. We focus on three main dimensions – openness, industrial structure and innovation – and analyze how changes in these factors, and the specific combination of them adopted by each country, have affected its income per capita growth. We apply Johansen cointegration approach to time series data for 18 Latin American countries. The analysis leads to two main results. First, we show that Latin American countries have followed different growth trajectories depending on the combination of policies they have adopted to catch up. Secondly, we find a clear correspondence between policy strategies, on the one hand, and growth performance, on the other. Countries that have managed to combine imitation and innovation policy have experienced a higher rate of growth than those economies that have only made efforts to improve their imitation capability. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20150820&r=all |
| By: | Christine Rifflart (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Le choc fiscal mis en place au début de l'année 2013 a pesé sur la croissance. Après 2,8 % en 2012, celle-ci n'a atteint que 1,9 % en moyenne l'année suivante. Mais la reprise s'est réimposée en fin de période. La croissance s'est accélérée au deuxième semestre et l'année se termine sur un rythme de 2,5 % en glissement annuel. Le paysage s'est éclairci et les bons résultats du deuxième semestre devraient augurer d'une croissance désormais un peu plus soutenue. C'est dans ce contexte, alors que l'ajustement budgétaire se poursuit, que la Réserve fédérale a décidé de réduire progressivement ses interventions sur les marchés financiers. La politique monétaire restera très accommodante mais les instruments non conventionnels de la banque centrale se normalisent progressivement. Pour autant, même si la croissance est plus soutenue en 2014 et 2015, elle restera modérée. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00994099&r=all |
| By: | Kundu, AMIT |
| Abstract: | An important objective of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme (MGNREGP) is to curb rural out-migration. This paper on the basis of a micro-level field investigation wants to investigate the effectiveness of this programme to reduce the intensity of migration of the rural poor households to urban areas. The survey area is a mono-cropping area but job in the private non-farm employment in the locality is available moderately. Besides that, the geographical distance between the surveyed villages and the nearby urban or semi-urban areas is small which indicates very low cost of migration of the daily migrant. Incidentally, all the migrants in our sample villages are daily migrants. The local farm, average private non-farm wage and the average wage rate in the nearby urban informal sector is more than MGNREGP piece-rate. Hence seeking employment here through MGNREGP is not exogenous but endogenous in nature. In this background, it is proved that ‘motivation’ is a factor which influences the local MGNREGP job card holders to secure more person-days of employment through MGNREGP and the households who could secure more person-days of employment through MGNREGP are less prone to migrate from their native village. |
| Keywords: | MGNREGP, Migration, Probit Model, Endogenity |
| JEL: | C33 C36 J38 R23 |
| Date: | 2014–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66204&r=all |
| By: | Ben Ammar, Semir; Eling, Martin; Milidonis, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Insurance companies are important financial institutions exposed to natural and man-made disasters. We conduct a comprehensive examination of existing asset pricing models in the US insurance universe (1988-2013) and propose an insurance-specific asset pricing model. We find that extant asset pricing models fail to explain the cross-section of insurance stock returns. Instead, we provide evidence that the factors of the insurance-specific model (book-to-market ratio, short-term reversal, illiquidity, and cashflow volatility) are priced in the cross-section of property/liability insurance stocks. Our model takes into account both insurance-specific anomalies primarily related to the insurance business cycle and externalities imposed by catastrophe risk. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing; Insurance Stocks; Multifactor Models; Anomalies; Cross-Section; Risk Factors |
| JEL: | G12 G22 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:16&r=all |
| By: | Jonas Zangenberg Hansen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM); Peter Stephensen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM) |
| Abstract: | We utilize the newly developed dynamic microsimulation model SMILE (Simulation Model for Individual Lifecycle Evaluation) to make a long-term forecast of detailed housing demand both in terms of key aggregate figures and compositional features of future Danish housing demand. SMILE simulates the life course of the full Danish population with respect to three main types of events: demographic, socioeconomic, and housing-related events. Demographic events include ageing, births, deaths, migration, leaving home, and couple formation and dissolution - all of which are key indirect drivers of future housing demand. Socioeconomic events such as education attendance and attainment, and labor market events are also important indirect drivers of housing demand because they are closely linked to the timing and direction of households' moving patterns. Finally, households move spatially and between dwelling types based on historically observed moving patterns and estimated transition probabilities by using the tree-based classification model. The key results from the simulations are: changing patterns of cohabitation with a decreasing average household size is projected to increase the number of households by roughly one-third above what the general increase in population indicates. Increasing urbanization leads to an increasing demand for multi-dwelling houses. An ageing population is expected to pent-up the demand for smaller dwellings, especially rental housing. |
| Keywords: | population projections, education, household projections, housing demand, microsimulation |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201304&r=all |
| By: | Philip Adams; Janine Dixon; Mark Horridge |
| Abstract: | The Victoria University Regional Model (VURM, formerly known as MMRF) is a dynamic model of Australia's six states and two territories. It models each region as an economy in its own right, with region-specific prices, region-specific consumers, region-specific industries, and so on. Based on the model’s current database, in each region 79 industries produce 83 commodities. Capital is industry and region specific. In each region, there is a single household and a regional government. There is also a Federal government. Finally, there are foreigners, whose behaviour is summarised by demand curves for international exports and supply curves for international imports. In recursive-dynamic mode, VURM produces sequences of annual solutions connected by dynamic relationships such as physical capital accumulation. Policy analysis with VURM conducted in a dynamic setting involves the comparison of two alternative sequences of solutions, one generated without the policy change and the other with the policy change in place. The first sequence, called the base case projection, serves as a control path from which deviations are measured to assess the effects of the policy shock. The model includes a number of satellite modules providing more detail on the models government finance accounts, household income accounts, population and demography, and energy and greenhouse gas emissions. Each of the ‘satellite’ modules is linked into other parts of the model, so that, projections from the model core can feed through into relevant parts of a module and changes in a module can feed back into the model core. The model also includes extensions to the core model theory dealing with links between demography and government consumption, the supply and interstate mobility of labour, and export supplies. |
| Keywords: | CGE modelling, dynamics, regional economics |
| JEL: | C68 D58 R13 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-254&r=all |
| By: | Anna Castañer (Universitat de Barcelona); Maria Mercè Claramunt (Universitat de Barcelona); Claude Lefèvre (ULB - Département de Mathématique [Bruxelles] - ULB - Université Libre de Bruxelles); Stéphane Loisel (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a class of Schur-constant survival models, of dimension n, for arithmetic non-negative random variables. Such a model is defined through a univariate survival function that is shown to be n-monotone. Two general representations are obtained, by conditioning on the sum of the n variables or through a doubly mixed multinomial distribution. Several other properties including correlation measures are derived. Three processes in insurance theory are discussed for which the claim interarrival periods form a Schur-constant model. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01081756&r=all |
| By: | Woll, Oliver |
| Abstract: | This article investigates mean risk hedging with respect to limited liquidity and studies the impact of different risk measures on the hedging strategies. For motivation and application purposes hedging in electricity markets is chosen, because the relevant hedging markets are characterized by limited liquidity. We enhance the approach in Woll and Weber (2015) to a mean-risk optimization under limited liquidity, including the risk measures absolute and relative Value and Conditional Value at Risk (VaR and CVaR). It can be shown that for position independent measures (Variance, relative VaR, relative CVaR) liquidity has no influence on the minimum risk hedging strategies, whereas for position dependent measures (absolute VaR, absolute CVaR) liquidity has an impact on the minimum risk hedging strategies. The article gives the mathematical formulations of the problems and discusses the economic relevance of the different models. In addition, we apply the analyzed concepts to the German Electricity markets. |
| Keywords: | optimization,electricity,liquidity,electricity trading,mean-risk-model |
| JEL: | C61 G11 Q40 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:15056&r=all |
| By: | Georg Graetz; Guy Michaels |
| Abstract: | Robots may seem dangerous not only to cinema action heroes but also to the average manufacturing worker.To assess whether such concerns are well founded, Guy Michaels and Georg Graetz analyse the labour market effects of industrial robots, which have been widely adopted in the past 25 years. |
| Keywords: | Robots, productivity, technological change |
| JEL: | E23 J23 O30 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:447&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Barnay (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | Economists have traditionally been very cautious when studying the interaction between employment and health because of the two-way causal relationship between these two variables: health status influences the probability of being employed and, at the same time, working affects the health status. Because these two variables are determined simultaneously,researchers control endogeneity skews (e.g., reverse causality, omitted variables) when conducting empirical analysis. With these cave at sin mind, the literature finds that a favourable work environment and high job security lead to better health conditions. Being employed with appropriate working conditions plays a protective role on physical health andpsychiatric disorders. By contrast, non-employment and retirement are generally worse for mental health than employment,and over employment has a negative effect on health. These findings stress the importance of employment and of a dequateworking conditions for the health of workers. In this context, it is a concern that a significant proportion of European workers(29%) would like to work fewer hours because unwanted long hours are likely to signal a poor level of job satisfaction andinadequate working conditions, with detrimental effects on health. Thus, in Europe, labour-market policy has increasingly paid attention to jobs ustainability and job satisfaction. The literature clearly invites employers to take better account of the worker preferences when setting the number of hours worked. Overall, a specific “flexicurity” (combination of high employment protection, job satisfaction and activelabour-market policies) is likely to have a positiveeffect on health. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01100259&r=all |
| By: | Bonfiglio, Andrea; Camaioni, Beatrice; Esposti, Roberto; Pagliacci, Francesco; Sotte, Franco |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at assessing distribution of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) expenditure through the European Union (EU) space. Firstly, spatial distribution of past CAP expenditure is analysed, specifically 2007-2011 payments. Both overall expenditure and disentangled measures are investigated; major territorial patterns through the EU-27 are highlighted as well. Secondly, spatial distribution of future expenditure, according to latest 2014-2020 CAP reform, is analysed. In particular, we assess re-distributional effects connected with spatial spillovers that are due to regional economic integration. Assessment is made through the adoption of a multiregional I-O model. The analysis is carried out at a very high level of disaggregation, i.e. NUTS 3 level throughout the EU-27. Furthermore, a specific focus is devoted to rural-urban relationships. |
| Keywords: | common agricultural policy, regional integration, urban-rural relationships, multiregional I-O model, Agricultural and Food Policy, C00, O18, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aiea15:207273&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Charl Jooste (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Omid Ranjbar (Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, Tehran, Iran) |
| Abstract: | We test for a unit root in de-trended GDP in a two-state Markov switching specification using a modified Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Our results show that a first difference GDP specification is preferred over the de-trended specification. In addition, the null of difference-stationary GDP cannot be rejected. By implication, shocks to GDP are permanent which validates specifying trend GDP with a stochastic component -something that is inherently assumed in a number of research papers that estimate potential GDP growth and that model GDP in general equilibrium specifications. |
| Keywords: | Markov-switching; difference-stationary; trend-stationary; |
| JEL: | C22 C25 E32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-04.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Hippolyte D'Albis (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics); Eleni Iliopulos (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study a benchmark model with collateral constraints and heterogeneous discounting. Contrarily to a rich literature on borrowing limits, we allow for rental markets. By incorporating this missing market, we show that impatient agents choose to rent rather than to own the collateral in the neighborhood of the deterministic steady state. Consequently, impatient agents are not indebted and borrowing constraints play no role in local dynamics. |
| Date: | 2013–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseose:hal-00964867&r=all |
| By: | Nyström, Kristina (Centre of Excellence in Science & Innovation Studies (CESIS), Department of Industrial Economics and Management, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), and The Ratio Institute.) |
| Abstract: | This chapter provides a literature review of existing research and identifies research gaps related to the labor mobility of both entrepreneurs and employees in entrepreneurial firms. Regarding entrepreneurs, there is a lot of research on their individual characteristics, including prior experience, and how the individual characteristics and experiences influence the performance of the firm. However, less is known on the post-entrepreneurship employment activity of entrepreneurs and how their prior experiences influence their future labor market careers. Regarding the labor mobility of employees in entrepreneurial firms, there is an emerging stream of literature on the individual characteristics of these employees. However, many issues related to their prior experience remain unexplored. Furthermore, labor mobility after working with an entrepreneurial firm is relatively less explored at this point. Accordingly, this chapter intends to summarize current research and outline avenues for future research regarding a) pre-entrepreneurship labor mobility of entrepreneurs and b) post-entrepreneurship labor mobility of entrepreneurs, as well as c) pre-entrepreneurship labor mobility of employees in entrepreneurial firms and d) post-entrepreneurship labor mobility of employees in entrepreneurial firms. In addition, the role of institutions and, in particular, employment protection laws (EPLs) for labor mobility of entrepreneurs and employees in entrepreneurial firms are discussed. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; labor mobility; employees in entrepreneurial firms |
| JEL: | J21 J62 L26 |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0420&r=all |
| By: | Mamonov, Mikhail (BOFIT); Vernikov , Andrei (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the comparative efficiency of public, private, and foreign banks in Russia, a transition economy with several unusual features. We perform stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) of Russian bank-level quarterly data over the period 2005–2013. The method of computation of comparative cost efficiency is amended to control for the effect of revaluation of foreign currency items in bank balance sheets. Public banks are split into core and other state-controlled banks. Employing the generalized method of moments, we estimate a set of distance functions that measure the observed differences in SFA scores of banks and bank clusters (heterogeneity in risk preference and asset structure) to explain changes in bank efficiency rankings. Our results for comparative Russian bank efficiency show higher efficiency scores, less volatility, and narrower spreads between the scores of different bank types than in previous studies. Foreign banks appear to be the least cost-efficient market participants, while core state banks on average are nearly as efficient as private domestic banks. We suggest that foreign banks gain cost-efficiency when they increase their loans-to-assets ratios above the sample median level. Core state banks, conversely, lead in terms of cost efficiency when their loans-to-assets ratio falls below the sample median level. The presented approach is potentially applicable to analysis of bank efficiency in other dollarized emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | banks; comparative efficiency; SFA; state-controlled banks; Russia |
| JEL: | G21 P23 P34 P52 |
| Date: | 2015–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_022&r=all |
| By: | Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Remarks before the Rochester Business Alliance, Rochester, New York. |
| Keywords: | workforce development; skill gap; economic reinvention |
| JEL: | E24 E66 |
| Date: | 2015–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:177&r=all |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Bibek Adhikari (Department of Economics, Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | Tunisia's tax system has undergone significant structural reforms over the last several decades. Even so, its structure exhibits some major flaws, shortcomings that spill over to and affect the performance of the overall Tunisian economy. Further, the tax system continues to underperform in some fundamental ways, ways that also affect the rest of the economy. Finally, the structure of the Tunisian tax system has some notable shortcomings. This paper discusses these issues. It presents details of the main taxes, it analyzes several main features of this tax system, and it suggests various specific tax reforms that can be introduced both in the short term and in the longer term. |
| Keywords: | flat tax, tax reform, synthetic control methods |
| JEL: | H20 H24 H25 H31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1516&r=all |
| By: | Moreira, Paulo Pires |
| Abstract: | The expansion for new export markets seems as inevitable as a challenge to the Portuguese economic recovery. Due to its peculiar geographical location Portugal is conditioned by the need to cross Spanish territory to reach central Europe. Moreover and assuming country’s geographical asymmetries where the coastline continues to be the main interface zone comprising nearly 70% of the population located within a 50 km littoral stripe, the adoption of an integrated policy for ports and other related activities appears as imperative. Portuguese continental ports are more than ever assuming a paramount role to surmount land-side constraints. Easy access to the foreland diminishes adverse land connections and mitigates the weak results arising from the hard task to capture cargo in the competitive hinterland. In order to understand the economic role this sector plays in the opening of new export markets, and pointing out expected growth opportunities and the threats that can arise from close proximity with major competitors, this paper cast a glance over the major continental Portuguese seaport. By giving an appropriate evaluation of the actual status and recommending further policies to adopt this paper aims to contribute for the interdisciplinary studies field applied to ports, using the framework of economic geography and spatial analysis rather than a port-specific approach. |
| Keywords: | Port of Sines; Economic recovery; Economic geography; Spatial analysis; Transport networks; International trade |
| JEL: | R11 R42 R53 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66287&r=all |
| By: | M'Hand Fares (AGIR - AGrosystèmes et développement terrItoRial - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)); Luis Orozco (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the contractual relationship between a wine cooperative (winery) and its member (growers). This relationship is plagued by moral hazard and adverse selection problems in grape quality. Indeed, growers can be opportunistic since the cooperative is unable to observe: (i) their effort level due to imperfect monitoring technology; (ii) their productive abilities (types) due to adverse selection. Because the growers' vineyard practices and efforts are one of the main determinants of grape quality, the cooperative implements an incentive compensation system to induce growers to provide the maximum effort towards quality. This compensation scheme is similar to that in tournaments (Lazear and Rosen, 1981; Green and Stokey, 1983; Knoeber, 1989; Prendergast, 1999). In our case, the cooperative promotes competition between growers by offering a promotion, while, at the same time, organizing the contest by creating homogenous groups of growers using a menu of contracts and monitoring through regular visits to the vineyard. Using a database of 1219 contracts, we test the effect of: (i) the cooperative's tournament compensation scheme; (ii) the menu of contracts and monitoring mechanism. The results of our econometric estimations provide some confirmation of both effects. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01093245&r=all |
| By: | Adrian Pop (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes); Diana Pop (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of frequent changes of investor protection regulation on the bid premium levels and the reception of the bid by the minority shareholders in blockholder regimes. In order to document the corporate governance function of takeover regulation, we explore a comprehensive data set representing more than 90% of the takeovers organized in Romania between 1998 and 2012. The peculiar institutional framework in Romania allows factoring in the analysis a hitherto unexplored structural element, namely the parallel control transactions managed by the government, outside the stock market structures. After controlling for the influence of corporate governance and ownership attributes of targets, our main findings suggests that various market price components are strong predictors of both bid premiums and tender success. Besides, the alignment of legal details to the requirements of the European takeover regulation has a surprising negative effect on minority claimants. If the shareholders are indeed able to distil the pertinent information about a bid, our overall result suggests that the balance between competing concerns of protecting minority shareholders and facilitating value-creating transactions is still open to debate in emerging markets |
| Date: | 2014–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01076722&r=all |
| By: | Cédric Clastres (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | Les régulateurs ou autorités de concurrence peuvent adopter des régulations asymétriques pour favoriser le développement de la concurrence. Ces régulations obligent l'Opérateur Historique (OH) à rétrocéder une partie de ses approvisionnements à ses concurrents pour favoriser la concurrence sur le marché final. Les régulateurs se doivent de déterminer le montant de capacités rétrocédées ainsi que le prix de rétrocession. Ce faisant, ils peuvent effectivement permettre l'émergence d'une concurrence forcée, en facilitant l'accès pour les concurrents aux capacités de production. Cependant, considérant les investissements lourds en infrastructures, des stranded costs peuvent apparaître. Les régulateurs se doivent d'adapter leur politique de régulation afin de maximiser le welfare et de réduire les pertes engendrées. Le succès de cette politique dépend de l'efficacité de l'OH. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00800264&r=all |
| By: | Robin SAKAMOTO (Kyorin University) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to review the state of higher education development in ASEAN and formulate how research and development should proceed post 2015 to ensure technological upgrading, innovation and competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education, Research and Development, Innovation |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2015-52&r=all |
| By: | Stéphane Auray (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université Lille II - Droit et santé - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies - Université Charles-de-Gaulle Lille 3 - Sciences humaines et sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France, CIRPEE - Universite Laval (Quebec), CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique); Aurélien Eyquem (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Frédéric Jouneau-Sion (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity : large temperature variations lower productivity. We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01098763&r=all |
| By: | Nicholas Trachter (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Leena Rudanko (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Guido Menzio (University of Pennsylvania); Greg Kaplan (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Using scanner data we document some interesting patterns of pricing. We document significant differences in (1) overall price levels across stores, and (2) deviations of individual prices from the store average price. We build a model of spatial price discrimination to explore these phenomena. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:417&r=all |
| By: | Yolande Francois (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | This communication suggests wondering about the power but more exactly about the power as the problem. Because before wondering about the contents of the power, we have to wonder about the fact of the existence of the power, about this need at the man of this behavior. Is it a refuge, a means to face its existence ? In an ideal system of governance, this variable has to exist. But why ? In the style of Nietzche, could-we it wonder ? Why, according to Hegel, the man is he a powerman ? Keys words : Power, organization, power of masters, power of the slaves, Organisational Behaviour. |
| Abstract: | Cet article interroge le phénomène du pouvoir organisationnel et plus précisément le pouvoir comme problème. Car avant de s'interroger sur le contenu du pouvoir dans les organisations et de son impact sur leur comportement, nous devons nous interroger sur le fait de l'existence du pouvoir, sur ce besoin chez l'homme de ce comportement. Est-ce un refuge, un moyen de faire face à son existence même ? Dans un système idéal de gouvernance organisationnelle, cette variable doit exister. Mais pourquoi ? A la manière de Nietzche, pourrions – nous nous le demander ? Pourquoi, selon Hegel, l'homme est-il un puissant ? Mots clés : pouvoir, organisation, pouvoir des dirigeants, pouvoir des dirigés, comportement organisationnel. |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01154922&r=all |
| By: | Lena Tsipouri (University of Athens (Greece) Author-Workplace-Homepage http://www.uoa.gr/); Sophia Athanassopoulou (University of Athens (Greece) Author-Workplace-Homepage http://www.uoa.gr/) |
| Abstract: | The report offers an analysis of the R&I system in Cyprus for 2014, including relevant policies and funding, with particular focus on topics critical for two EU policies: the European Research Area and the Innovation Union. The report was prepared according to a set of guidelines for collecting and analysing a range of materials, including policy documents, statistics, evaluation reports, websites etc. The report identifies the structural challenges of the Cypriot research and innovation system and assesses the match between the national priorities and those challenges, highlighting the latest policy developments, their dynamics and impact in the overall national context. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Cyprus |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc96492&r=all |
| By: | Dana Petersen; Lisa Schottenfeld |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Idaho's experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | Idaho, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:d0832a8cfb704bd99b5212e3a3e4af75&r=all |
| By: | Eric Morris; Melissa Medeiros; Noelle Denny-Brown; Victoria Peebles; Bailey G. Orshan; Rebecca Coughlin; Rebecca SweetlLester; Susan R. Williams; Brynn Hagen |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes progress in 2014 by the 44 MFP grantee states (including the District of Columbia) that are actively transitioning participants. MFP grants support state efforts to help individuals living in institutions move to home and community-based settings if that is where they wish to receive long-term services and supports. |
| Keywords: | Medicaid, long-term services and supports , transition home and community-based setting, people with disabilities, Money follows the person |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:2edad8dc39b84c6aa02e32836ca98831&r=all |
| By: | Guillaume Pierne (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS, EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - Université d'Evry-Val d'Essonne) |
| Abstract: | This study uses the findings of a test carried out by correspondence in order to assess separately the potential hiring effects of North African origin and signaling of employment and unemployment in the French construction sector. We build a model combining taste and statistical discrimination explaining why North Afr ican origin applicants should proportionally benefit more from signaling current employment than their French origin counterparts. We construct four jobseeker profiles, each representing a particular situation with respect to national origin and job status, and we sent 1204 resumés in reply to 301 job vacancies advertised from mid April to mid September 2011 in Paris and its suburbs. We find evidences of significant hiring discrimination against applicants of North African origin, regardless of their job status. Signaling employment seems to be valorized only for North Africans applicants. We cannot however affirm that employed applicants are less penalized by their national origin than the unemployed ones. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01100328&r=all |
| By: | Takeshi, Sakurai |
| Abstract: | Irrigated rice farming in the Senegal River Valley is known to be highly productive, as indicated by the average yield of nearly 5 tons per hectare, and the extensive adoption of modern seed-fertilizer technology. This study seeks to understand why rice farming is so productive in this region; analyzing this situation from the viewpoint of the management efficiency of large versus small scale irrigation schemes. Contrary to popular belief, the study found that farmers in large-scale irrigation schemes achieve significantly higher yields and profits than those in small-scale irrigation schemes. |
| Keywords: | large-scale irrigation schemes , small-scale irrigation schemes , roductivity , rice farming , Senegal river valley |
| Date: | 2015–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:105&r=all |
| By: | Lichter, Andreas (IZA); Loeffler, Max (ZEW Mannheim); Siegloch, Sebastian (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | Based on official records from the former East German Ministry for State Security, we quantify the long-term costs of state surveillance on social capital and economic performance. Using county-level variation in the spy density in the 1980s, we exploit discontinuities at state borders to show that higher levels of Stasi surveillance led to lower levels of social capital as measured by interpersonal and institutional trust in post-reunification Germany. We estimate the economic costs of spying by applying a second identification strategy that accounts for county fixed effects. We find that a higher spy density caused lower self-employment rates, fewer patents per capita, higher unemployment rates and larger population losses throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Overall, our results suggest that the social and economic costs of state surveillance are large and persistent. |
| JEL: | H11 N34 N44 P26 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9245&r=all |
| By: | Ryoma Kitamura (Graduate School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a monopoly model in which two vertically differentiated goods are supplied and involve a within-product network externality. Within this model, I examine how the cost of the high-quality good affects the firm’s profit and welfare, demonstrating a surprising result that both the profit and welfare are U-shaped in the cost and thus, in particular, a decrease in the marginal cost can reduce the monopoly profit. I show that the assumptions of the fulfilled expectations equilibrium and multi-product monopoly lead to this counter intuitive possibility. Furthermore, changes in production costs and in quality yield cannibalization such that the consumption of one good increases while that of the other decreases. |
| Keywords: | Multi-product firm, Monopoly, Cannibalization, Network externality |
| JEL: | D21 D42 L12 L15 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:133&r=all |
| By: | Muriel Fadairo (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Cintya Lanchimba (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Josef Windsperger (University of Vienna [Vienna]) |
| Abstract: | Multi-unit franchising (MUF) is a governance form inside franchising networks where the franchisor transfers to the franchisees the right to own and operate more than one outlet. While previous empirical literature has revealed various advantages of MUF as compared to single-unit franchising (SUF), we study the impact of this governance form on the network performance, taking into account different contexts. Our results from propensity score matching show that MUF leads to higher performance. However, non-parametric estimations highlight thresholds suggesting that a mix of SUF and MUF is a more efficient governance form than a pure MUF network. |
| Date: | 2015–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01128075&r=all |
| By: | Chang, Andrew C. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Hanson, Tyler J. (Hopper) |
| Abstract: | We analyze forecasts of consumption, nonresidential investment, residential investment, government spending, exports, imports, inventories, gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment prepared by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee from 1997 to 2008, called the Greenbooks. We compare the root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and the proportion of directional errors of Greenbook forecasts of these macroeconomic indicators to the errors from three forecasting benchmarks: a random walk, a first-order autoregressive model, and a Bayesian model averaged forecast from a suite of univariate time-series models commonly taught to first-year economics graduate students. We estimate our forecasting benchmarks both on end-of-sample vintage and real-time vintage data. We find find that Greenbook forecasts significantly outperform our benchmark forecasts for horizons less than one quarter ahead. However, by the one-year forecast horizon, typically at least one of our forecasting benchmarks performs as well as Greenbook forecasts. Greenbook forecasts of the personal consumption expenditures and unemployment tend to do relatively well, while Greenbook forecasts of inventory investment, government expenditures, and inflation tend to do poorly. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian model averaging; Federal Open Market Committee; forecast accuracy; Greenbook; NIPA; national income and product accounts; real-time data |
| JEL: | C53 E17 E27 E37 F17 |
| Date: | 2015–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-62&r=all |
| By: | Mirdala, Rajmund; Svrčeková, Aneta; Semančíková, Jozefína |
| Abstract: | Effects of international financial integration on the volatility of the total output and its main components have been a subject of rigorous academic discussion for decades. Even nowadays recent empirical literature suggests that its long-term benefits on economic growth are associated with spurious and vague side effects in terms of macroeconomic volatility. This paper examines the relationship between international financial integration and output fluctuation. An analysis was conducted on a large sample of developed and developing countries over the past 40 years. We follow the approach employed by Kose et al. (2003) and use cross-sectional median of financial liberalization to subdivide developing economies into two groups: more financially liberalized (MFL) and less financially liberalized (LFL) economies. Our results indicate that while the volatility of output growth rates experienced a decreasing trend over time, financial integration had a significant contribution to output fluctuations. However, the relationship was stronger in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | financial integration, financial liberalization, output volatility, consumption volatility, capital flows |
| JEL: | E44 F36 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66143&r=all |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | Knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS), which produce skill-intensive services used as intermediate inputs, are becoming important for the economic growth and international competitiveness of advanced countries. This paper, using establishment- and firm-level micro data, analyzes the productivity of knowledge- and information-intensive services such as information services, publishers, and design services. We focus on the effect of urban density on the productivity of these services. According to the estimations, doubling the employment density of municipalities is associated with an average of around 5% higher labor productivity of the services providers, which is larger than that found in the manufacturing industry. However, the size of the economies of density is heterogeneous by individual services, suggesting that the services to be promoted by small and medium cities are different from the services for which large metropolitan cities such as Tokyo and Osaka have strong comparative advantages. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:15050&r=all |
| By: | Karine Gauche (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1, Comptabilités et Société - MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1); Roxana Ologeanu-Taddei (Systèmes d'information - MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1, MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1); Ariel Eggrikx (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1, Comptabilités et Société - MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1) |
| Abstract: | Pour passer aux responsabilités et compétences élargies (RCE), les universités françaises ont pu demander à l'inspection générale de l'administration de l'éducation nationale et de la recherche (IGAENR) un audit sur leur situation. L'audit se concluait par la nécessité de développer les systèmes d'information pour le pilotage. Considérant différentes recherches ayant relevé les échecs répétés des systèmes d'information implantés dans les universités, cette communication propose une étude du système d'information dédié au pilotage de la recherche dans une université française. Abstract : To switch " responsabilités et compétences élargies " (RCE), the French universities have asked the " inspection générale de l'administration de l'éducation nationale et de la recherché " (IGAENR) an audit of their situation. The audit concluded with the need to develop information systems for controlling. Whereas various studies have noted the repeated failures for information systems implemented in universities, this paper proposes a study of the information system designed for research management control in a French university. |
| Date: | 2014–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01152211&r=all |
| By: | Paolo Avner (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); Vincent Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); Stéphane Hallegatte (World Bank - World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Le Versement pour Sous Densité est une mesure innovante qui a fait son entrée dans la loi française depuis mi-2012 et qui vise à limiter l’étalement urbain en taxant les nouvelles constructions qui n’atteignent pas un Seuil minimal de densité. Ce papier, à travers l’utilisation d’un modèle transportusage des sols (NEDUM 2D), quantifie les impacts potentiels de cette politique sur l’Ile-de-France et examine les conditions qui lui permettraient de gagner en efficacité tout en limitant les coûts sociaux de sa mise en œuvre. Les résultats de cette étude montrent que si cet outil est correctement utilisé, il peut contribuer à limiter l’étalement urbain tout en augmentant les surfaces construites et donc en diminuant le niveau des prix immobiliers et des loyers. De façon surprenante, il s’agit donc d’une taxe sur la construction qui a pour résultat un accroissement des surfaces des logements. Cependant la mise en œuvre de cette politique est compliquée puisque le choix du Seuil minimal de densité en conditionne largement l’efficacité. Si celui-ci est trop bas le versement peut avoir des impacts contre-productifs comme une accélération de l’étalement urbain. De plus, en fonction de l’objectif privilégié (limitation de l’étalement urbain, accès aux transports en commun, …), le choix du seuil optimal variera. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01136220&r=all |
| By: | Pierre MANDON (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide empirical evidence of the complementarities between the geographical approach of Diamond (1997) and the institutional approach of Acemoglu et al. (2002) to explain gaps in economic performance worldwide since 11, 000 BC until today. While the biogeographical endowments of Diamond are suitable to explain development paths until 1500 AD, the reversal of fortune of Acemoglu et al. (2002) is able to explain gaps in economic performance since 1500 AD. Those results display the positive impact of institutional framework on economic development, and focus on the complementary of two different fields of literature on long-run development. |
| Date: | 2015–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01088816&r=all |
| By: | Braude-Zolotarev, M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Voloshkin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Serbina, E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Negorodov, Vitaliy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the Russian Federation in a fairly short period of time a unified system of interagency electronic interaction was established and is now functioning . However, the practice of submission of documents and information concerning interdepartmental requests the provision of public and municipal services demonstrates the need for qualitative improvement of electronic document management system. The work developed and introduced a new integrated model of organization in the Russian Federation of interdepartmental information interaction in the provision of public and municipal services, including the design of a uniform procedure of information exchange at all levels of government. The proposed model is based on the need to create a unified system of state registration and involves the establishment of uniform standards for state registration of rights to information and documents on interdepartmental inquiries and uniform procedure for organizing such a public accounting. |
| Keywords: | interagency electronic interaction, electronic document management system, interdepartmental inquiries |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:madd6&r=all |
| By: | Xavier Ragot (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Mathilde Le Moigne (ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris) |
| Abstract: | La divergence économique entre la France et l’Allemagne depuis 1993 est impressionnante. Alors que les deux pays étaient dans des situations comparables à la fin des années 1990, l’Allemagne est aujourd’hui au voi- sinage du plein emploi - en dépit d’inégalités en hausse - et est un des pays les plus exportateurs du monde. La France connait un chômage his- torique et voit ses performances commerciales se dégrader continûment. Plusieurs explications à cette divergence ont été proposées. Cet article quantifie la contribution particulière de la modération salariale allemande débutant outre-Rhin au milieu des années 1990 sur l’écart de performances économiques franco-allemand. En effet, les salaires allemands sont restés extraordinairement stables après la réunification allemande, et ce essen- tiellement dans les services. À l’aide d’un modèle quantitatif de commerce international, nous trouvons que la modération salariale allemande est res- ponsable de l’ordre de la moitié de l’écart de performances à l’exportation de la France par rapport à l’Allemagne, et explique environ 2% du taux de chômage français. Le problème de l’offre en France est essentiellement l le résultat du désajustement européen |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01167180&r=all |
| By: | Møller, Niels Framroze; Møller Andersen, Frits |
| Abstract: | The use of renewable energy implies a more variable supply of power. Market efficiency may improve if demand can absorb some of this variability by being more flexible, e.g. by responding quickly to changes in the market price of power. To learn about this, in particular, whether demand responds already within the same day, we suggest an econometric model for hourly consumption and price time series. This allows for multi-level seasonality and that information about day-ahead prices does not arrive every hour but every 24th hour (as a vector of 24 prices). We confront the model with data from the manufacturing industry of West Denmark (2007-2011). The results clearly suggest a lack of response. The policy implication is that relying exclusively on hourly price response by consumers for integrating volatile renewable electricity production is questionable. Either hourly price variation has to increase considerably or demand response technologies be installed. |
| Keywords: | Demand Response, Electricity Demand, Day-ahead prices, Econometrics, RegARIMA |
| JEL: | C22 Q0 Q4 Q41 |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66178&r=all |
| By: | Allen, Franklin (University of PA); Carletti, Elena (Bocconi University); Marquez, Robert (University of CA, Davis) |
| Abstract: | In a model with bankruptcy costs and segmented deposit and equity markets, we endogenize the cost of equity and deposit finance for banks. Despite risk neutrality, equity capital earns a higher expected return than direct investment in risky assets. Banks hold positive capital to reduce bankruptcy costs, but there is a role for capital regulation when deposits are insured. Banks may no longer use capital when they lend to firms rather than invest directly in risky assets. This depends on whether the firms are public and compete with banks for equity capital, or private with exogenous amounts of capital. |
| JEL: | G21 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-08&r=all |
| By: | Mun-Heng TOH (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the cluster-based development strategy adopted in Singapore. That strategy has enabled Singapore to be plugged into global value chains (GVAs) to benefit from inflows of foreign investment and participation in international trade. The OECD-WTO Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) database was made public recently and has been mostly used in studies relating to trade policies and GVCs. This paper makes use of information and indicators of GVC participation from the TiVA database with specific reference to Singapore. New concepts and the implications of trade in value-added are appraised to provide new perspectives of, and prospects for, continued sustainable growth of Singapore’s economy. |
| Keywords: | global value chain, trade in value-added, cluster development, agglomeration, foreign direct investment |
| JEL: | F14 F24 O19 O24 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2015-50&r=all |
| By: | Brixiova, Zuzana (University of Cape Town); Kangoye, Thierry (African Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to closing a knowledge gap on gender, entrepreneurship and development by linking the entrepreneurial productivity to start-up capital and skills. The empirical analysis of a survey of entrepreneurs in Swaziland confirmed the importance of start-up capital for sales. Women entrepreneurs have smaller start-up capital and are less likely to fund it from the formal sector than their men counterparts, pointing to a possible room for policy interventions. Further, business training is positively associated with sales performance of men entrepreneurs, but has no effect on women. However, this does not call for abolishing training programs for women entrepreneurs. Instead their design and targeting should be revisited. |
| Keywords: | gender and entrepreneurship, start-up capital, skills, training, multivariate analysis |
| JEL: | L53 O12 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9273&r=all |
| By: | Mohamed Belhaj (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Frédéric Deroïan (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | A principal offers bilateral contracts to a set of agents organized in a network conveying synergies, in a context where agents' efforts are observable and where the principal's objective increases with the sum of efforts. We characterize optimal contracts as a function of agents' positions on the network. The analysis shows that contract enforceability is key to understand optimality. We also examine linear contracting and we analyze the situation where the principal is constrained to contract with a single agent on the network. Last, we extend this setting to network entry. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01102403&r=all |
| By: | Lin, Xiaoji (OH State University); Palazzo, Berardino (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the asset pricing implications of technological change in a model with costly technology adoption and external financing frictions. Firms adopt the latest technology embodied in new capital to reach the technology frontier, but entail adoption costs and external financing costs. The central finding is that optimal technology adoption is an important determinant of the cross section of stock returns. The model predicts that technology adopting firms are less risky than non-adopting firms. Intuitively, by restricting firms from freely upgrading the existing vintage capital to the technology frontier, costly technology adoption and external financing frictions reduce firms' real and financial flexibilities, and hence generate the risk dispersion between technology adopting firms and non-adopting firms. The model is qualitatively and in many cases quantitatively consistent with the key empirical regularities in the cross sectional returns. |
| JEL: | E23 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-15&r=all |
| By: | Lopez, Pier (Banqe de France); Lopez-Salido, J. David (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Vazquez-Grande, Francisco (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | A downward-sloping term structure of equity and upward-sloping term structures of interest rates arise endogenously in a general-equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and nonlinear habits in consumption. Countercyclical marginal costs exacerbate the procyclicality of dividends after a technology shock, and hence their riskiness, and generate countercyclical inflation. Marginal costs gradually fall after a negative technology shock as the price level increases sluggishly, so the payoffs of short-duration dividend claims (bonds) are more (less) procyclical than the payoffs of long-duration claims (bonds). The simultaneous presence of market and home consumption habits allows for uniting nonlinear habits and a production economy without compromising the ability of the model to fit macroeconomic variables. |
| Keywords: | Equity and bond yields; habit formation; nominal rigidities; structural term structure modeling |
| JEL: | E43 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2015–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-64&r=all |
| By: | Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how governance and risk management affect risk-taking in banks. It distinguishes between good risks, which are risks that have an ex ante private reward for the bank on a stand-alone basis, and bad risks, which do not have such a reward. A well-governed bank takes the amount of risk that maximizes shareholder wealth subject to constraints imposed by laws and regulators. In general, this involves eliminating or mitigating all bad risks to the extent that it is cost effective to do so. The role of risk management in such a bank is not to reduce the bank's total risk per se. It is to identify and measure the risks the bank is taking, aggregate these risks in a measure of the bank's total risk, enable the bank to eliminate, mitigate and avoid bad risks, and ensure that its risk level is consistent with its risk appetite. Organizing the risk management function so that it plays that role is challenging because there are limitations in measuring risk and because, while more detailed rules can prevent destructive risk-taking, they also limit the flexibility of an institution in taking advantage of opportunities that increase firm value. Limitations of risk measurement and the decentralized nature of risk-taking imply that setting appropriate incentives for risk-takers and promoting an appropriate risk culture are essential to the success of risk management in performing its function. |
| JEL: | G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-09&r=all |
| By: | Le, Phuong |
| Abstract: | This paper studies combinatorial auctions with budget-constrained bidders from a mechanism design perspective. I search for mechanisms that are incentive compatible, individually rational, symmetric, non-wasteful and non-bossy. First focusing on the greedy domain, in which any increase in a bidder's valuation always exceeds his budget, I derive the unique mechanism, called the Iterative Second Price Auction. For the general domain, however, no such mechanism exists. |
| Keywords: | Combinatorial Auctions, Budget Constraints, Mechanisms |
| JEL: | D44 |
| Date: | 2015–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66292&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Marc Bonnisseau (Axe Economie mathématique et jeux - CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics); Achis Chery (Axe Economie Mathématique et jeux - CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - CREGED - Centre de Recherche en Gestion et Economie du Développement) |
| Abstract: | We consider a stochastic financial exchange economy with a finite date-event tree representing time and uncertainty and a financial structure with possibly long-term assets. We exhibit a sufficient condition under which the set of marketable payoffs depends continuously on the arbitrage free asset prices. This generalizes previous results of Angeloni-Cornet and Magill-Quinzii involving only short-term assets. We also show that, under the same condition, the useless portfolios do not depend on the arbitrage free asset prices. We then provide an existence result of financial equilibrium for long term nominal assets for any given state prices with assumptions only on the fundamental datas of the economy. |
| Abstract: | Nous considérons une économie d'échange où le temps et l'incertitude sont représentés par un arbre fini d'évènements et la structure financière intègre des actifs de long terme. Nous proposons une condition suffisante pour que l'espace des paiements réalisables dépendent continûment des prix des actifs financiers sans opportunité d'arbitrage. Cela généralise les résultats antérieurs d'Angeloni et Cornet et de Magill et Quinzii qui ne considéraient que des actifs de court terme. Nous montrons également que sous la même condition, l'espace des portefeuilles inutiles ne dépend pas des prix des actifs sans arbitrage. Enfin, nous établissons un résultat d'existence d'équilibre des marchés financiers avec des actifs de long terme pour n'importe quel prix des actifs sans arbitrage sous des hypothèses portant uniquement sur les fondamentaux de l'économie. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseose:halshs-00917638&r=all |
| By: | Stefania Ottone; Ferruccio Ponzano; Giulia Andrighetto |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study how people from different European countries would react, in terms of tax compliance, to institutional changes. We choose an experimental setting and we focus on two features of the tax system – efficiency and tax rate. We develop our analysis in three countries characterized by different systems: Italy, Sweden, UK. The main finding is that participants from different countries react with the same intensity to efficiency changes but not to increases in the tax rate. In all countries tax compliance decreases as tax rate increases, but the reaction is stronger in Italy and softer in UK. Policy implications – mostly focused on fiscal harmonization - follow. |
| Keywords: | tax compliance, fiscal harmonization, cross-country comparison, efficiency, tax rate |
| JEL: | C9 D31 H26 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:307&r=all |
| By: | Prabir C. Bhattacharya; Vibhor Saxena |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the determinants of the child and juvenile sex ratios in India in a multivariate framework, using district level data from the 1981, 1991, and 2001 Indian population censuses. The results strongly suggest that there are deep rooted cultural factors at play in the determination of the sex ratios at birth and at early ages, cultural factors that are not much responsive to the enhancement of women's agency or to economic development. However, the results also show that the behaviour of the juvenile sex ratio does respond to the enhancement of women's agency and to economic development. Policy implications of these findings are considered. |
| JEL: | J10 J13 J17 J18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1503&r=all |
| By: | Radim Dolák (Departament of Informatics and Mathematics, School of Business Administration, Silesian University) |
| Abstract: | Tento článek se zabývá problematikou možnosti využití jedné z moderních metod vzdělávání, kterou je e-learning. Nejprve je uvedena problematika vzdělávání zaměstnanců z pohledu personalistiky a poté je pozornost zaměřena na vzdělávání za pomocí e-learningu. Po vymezení pojmu e-learning je pozornost zaměřena na plánování vzdělávání pracovníků prostřednictvím e-learningu. Součástí článku je také případová studie, která se zabývá možností využití e-learningového systému Moodle pro výuku práce s informačním podnikovým systémem. Cílem článku je především ukázat přínosy e-learningu a v rámci případové studie popsat proces plánování vzdělávání pracovníků prostřednictvím e-learningu od úvodní analýzy vzdělávacích činností až po praktickou realizaci (vytvoření výukového portálu v LMS Moodle). |
| Keywords: | e-learning, LMS Moodle, moderní formy vzdělávání, proces vzdělávání, plánování vzdělávání pracovníků, analýza vzdělávacích procesů |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2015–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:opa:wpaper:0014&r=all |
| By: | Klaffke, Martin |
| Abstract: | Germany is undergoing a dramatic demographic change that requires its organizations to make workforce talent of all ages a strategic priority. Practitioners in Germany focus largely on Generation Y employees, because this young employee cohort expresses new and different work-related values. However, diverse attitudes and behaviours of employees of different age groups can potenÂtially lead to conflict and have an overall negative impact on orgaÂnizational performance. Given US labour legislation and media pressure, managing workforce diversity has been on the agenda of U.S. organizations for many years. Consequently, it can be assumed that there are areas in which German organizations can learn best practices from the U.S. experience. Although data collected from Silicon Valley organizations suggest that taking specific action for managing the multi-generational workforce is currently not a pressing issue in the tech industry, setting up innovative workplaces is an action field in which Germany can learn from its U.S. counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Germany, Demographics, Diversity, Generation Management, Silicon Valley |
| Date: | 2015–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:bineur:qt1x9831v3&r=all |
| By: | Proost, Stef; Thisse, Jacques-François |
| Abstract: | The three themes of this survey—cities, regions, and transport—are closely intertwined and gathered in the category R of the JEL Classification System. We discuss cities and regions in separate sections because they are different spatial units facing specific problems. Transport issues affect both cities and regions and are discussed in each relevant section. The introductory remarks explain both the reason for this division, as well as what spatial economics is all about. Because general economists have barely met the words cities, regions, and transport during their studies, we explain what the field of spatial economics is and define basic concepts that might not currently be in their tool box. The second section is devoted to cities; the third focuses on regions. We conclude with general policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | cities; congestion; land; region; trade; transport |
| JEL: | R00 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10790&r=all |
| By: | Yuri Biondi; Simone Righi |
| Abstract: | Our computational economic analysis investigates the relationship between inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process. Extending the baseline model by Levy et al., we characterise the economic process trough stylised return structures generating alternative evolutions of income and wealth through historical time. First we explore the limited heuristic contribution of one and two factors models comprising one single stock (capital wealth) and one single flow factor (labour) as pure drivers of income and wealth generation and allocation over time. Then we introduce heuristic modes of taxation in line with the baseline approach. Our computational economic analysis corroborates that the financial accumulation process featuring compound returns plays a significant role as source of inequality, while institutional configurations including taxation play a significant role in framing and shaping the aggregate economic process that evolves over socioeconomic space and time. |
| Keywords: | inequality, economic process, compound interest, simple interest, taxation, minimal insti- tution, computational economics, econophysics |
| JEL: | C46 C63 D31 E02 E21 E27 D63 H22 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:dembwp:0058&r=all |
| By: | Tomas Havranek; Zuzana Irsova; Karel Janda; David Zilberman |
| Abstract: | We examine potential selective reporting (publication bias) in the literature on the social cost of carbon (SCC) by conducting a meta-analysis of 809 estimates of the SCC reported in 101 studies. Our results indicate that estimates for which the 95% confidence interval includes zero are less likely to be reported than estimates excluding negative values of the SCC, which might create an upward bias in the literature. The evidence for selective reporting is stronger for studies published in peer-reviewed journals than for unpublished papers. We show that the findings are not driven by the asymmetry of the confidence intervals surrounding the SCC and are robust to controlling for various characteristics of study design and to alternative definitions of confidence intervals. Our estimates of the mean reported SCC corrected for the selective reporting bias range between USD 0 and 134 per ton of carbon at 2010 prices for emission year 2015. |
| Keywords: | Social cost of carbon, climate policy, integrated assessment models, meta-analysis, selective reporting, publication bias |
| JEL: | C83 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2015-28&r=all |
| By: | Charles Raux (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]); Amandine Chevalier (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]); Emmanuel Bougna (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]); Denis Hilton (Université de Toulouse - Université de Toulouse) |
| Abstract: | The potential of psychological and fiscal incentives in motivating environmentally responsible behavior in a context of long distance leisure travel is explored thanks to a series of controlled experiments on 900 participants. Framing effects like information on CO2 emissions, injunctive and descriptive norms, in combination with fiscal incentives such as a carbon tax, a bonus-malus or a carbon trading scheme are tested. Providing CO2 information on emissions is highly effective and the injunctive norm reinforces this effect in the case of air and train. A quota scheme reinforces the injunctive norm effect in the case of these two modes. More strikingly, the amount of the financial sanction or reward has no effect on the probability of using the various travel modes, unlike the presence of the fiscal framing itself. These results reinforce the case for using psychologically framing effects, in association or not with fiscal instruments, in promoting effective pro-environmental behavior in transport choices. |
| Date: | 2015–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01158088&r=all |
| By: | V. Masson (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS - INSU - Météo France); C. Marchadier (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS - INSU - Météo France); L. Adolphe (LRA - Laboratoire de recherche en architecture - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail - ENSA Toulouse - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Toulouse); R. Aguejdad (LETG - Costel - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UN - Université de Nantes - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UBO - Université de Bretagne Occidentale - Université de Rennes II - Haute Bretagne - CNRS, CARE - Centre Armoricain de Recherche en Environnement - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - Université de Rennes II - Haute Bretagne); P. Avner (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); M. Bonhomme (PIAF - Laboratoire de Physique et Physiologie Intégratives de l'Arbre Fruitier et Forestier - UBP - Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)); G. Bretagne (Urban Planning Agency, Toulouse, France); X. Briottet (Toulouse - Onera - The French Aerospace Lab - ONERA); B. Bueno (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS - INSU - Météo France); C. De Munck (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS - INSU - Météo France); O. Doukari (GEODE - Géographie de l'environnement - CNRS - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail); S. Hallegatte (World Bank - World Bank); J. Hidalgo (LISST - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Solidarités, Sociétés, Territoires - CNRS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail); Thomas Houet (GEODE - Géographie de l'environnement - CNRS - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail); J. Le Bras (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS - INSU - Météo France); A. Lemonsu (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS - INSU - Météo France); N. Long (LIENSs - LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés [La Rochelle] - Université de La Rochelle - CNRS); M.-P. Moine (CERFACS [Toulouse] - CNRS - INSU); T. Morel (CERFACS [Toulouse] - CNRS - INSU); L. Nolorgues (Urban Planning Agency of Île-de-France, Paris, France); G. Pigeon (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS - INSU - Météo France); J.-L. Salagnac (CSTB - Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment - CSTB - Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment); V. Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); K. Zibouche (CSTB - Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment - CSTB - Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment) |
| Abstract: | Societies have to both reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and undertake adaptation measures to limit the negative impacts of global warming on the population, the economy and the environment. Examining how best to adapt cities is especially challenging as urban areas will evolve as the climate changes. Thus, examining adaptation strategies for cities requires a strong interdisciplinary approach involving urban planners, architects, meteorologists, building engineers, economists, and social scientists. Here we introduce a systemic modelling approach to the problem. Our four-step methodology consists of: first, defining interdisciplinary scenarios; second, simulating the long-term evolution of cities on the basis of socio-economic and land-use models; third, calculating impacts with physical models (such as TEB), and; finally, calculating the indicators that quantify the effect of different adaptation policies. In the examples presented here, urban planning strategies are shown to have unexpected influence on city expansion in the long term. Moreover, the Urban Heat Island should be taken into account in operational estimations of building energy demands. Citizens’ practices seem to be an efficient lever for reducing energy consumption in buildings. Interdisciplinary systemic modelling appears well suited to the evaluation of several adaptation strategies for a very broad range of topics. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01136215&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Leslie Foster; Mynti Hossain |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Pennsylvania’s experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | Pennsylvania, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:9a7c1811c3974c7aa90d9befa338b7ab&r=all |
| By: | Sylvie Chevrier (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Annick Manco (IOGS - Institut d'Optique Graduate School); Jeanne Salem (Université de Paris Dauphine - Université de Paris Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | In the last twenty years, international firms have undergone various changes to become global firms. The inherent innovation potential of these global firms only materializes if the various entities cooperate efficiently and succeed in merging together their contributions. The object of this article is to examine the practical forms that this cooperation takes, so as to detect, by observing actors in global organisations, what barriers and difficulties they meet. This paper presents the empirical study of the dynamics of two R&D teams within a major French industrial group. By studying how the daily teamwork takes place, this article takes a critical look at the new models of organization and assesses how far they really favour innovation. |
| Abstract: | Depuis une vingtaine d’années, les firmes internationales se sont transformées pour devenir des firmes globales. Cependant, le potentiel d’innovation inhérent à ces firmes globales ne se concrétise que si les acteurs des différentes entités coopèrent efficacement et réussissent à intégrer leurs contributions. L’objet de cet article est donc d’examiner les formes concrètes de coopération des acteurs qui participent de ces entreprises globales, de déceler les obstacles qu’ils rencontrent et déterminer des modes de management les plus à même de concrétiser les gains potentiels de ces structures en réseau. Cet article s’appuie sur l’analyse empirique du fonctionnement de deux équipes projet dans un grand Groupe international d’origine française. L’analyse du fonctionnement quotidien de ces équipes projets ouvre la voie à une approche critique de ces nouveaux modèles d’organisations globales considérés comme les plus propices à l’innovation. |
| Date: | 2014–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01122586&r=all |
| By: | Andreasen, Eugenia (University of Santiago of Chile); Schindler, Martin (Joint Vienna Institute); Valenzuela, Patricio (University of Chile) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel panel data set for international corporate bonds and capital account restrictions in advanced and emerging economies, we find that restrictions on capital inflows produce a substantial and economically meaningful increase in corporate bond spreads. By contrast, we find no robust significant effect of restrictions on outflows. The effect of capital account restrictions on inflows is particularly strong for bonds maturing in the short-term, issued by small firms and in countries with underdeveloped financial markets. Additionally, the paper shows that capital account restrictions on inflows have a greater effect during periods of financial distress than during periods of financial stability. These results are suggestive of a causal interpretation of the estimated effects and establish a novel channel through which capital controls affect economic outcomes. |
| JEL: | F30 F40 G10 G30 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-02&r=all |
| By: | Barber, Brad M. (University of CA, Davis); Yasuda, Ayako (University of CA, Davis) |
| Abstract: | We study the interim performance of private equity (PE) funds around the time of fundraising events using fund level cash flow and valuation data for over 800 funds raised between 1993 and 2009. We first show that interim performance, measured as the current fund's percentile rank relative to its vintage year cohort funds, materially affects the PE firm's ability to raise a follow-on fund and the size of the follow-on fund. Given these incentive results, we hypothesize and find that PE firms time their fundraising activities to coincide with periods when the current fund's interim performance is at its peak relative to its vintage year cohorts. We further document that the size and frequency of net asset value (NAV) markdowns increases in the period following fundraising, which suggests that fund valuations are inflated during the fundraising period. Consistent with this interpretation, we find the size and frequency of markdowns increases most for small, young, and low-reputation PE firms, which have the clearest incentives to report strong interim performance. For buyout funds, we also find evidence of post-fundraising performance erosion (due to NAV inflation during fundraising) but only among the small, young, and low-reputation PE firms. Our results indicate that PE firms, particularly small, young, and low-reputation firms, are good at timing their fundraising activities to coincide with periods of peak performance and are reluctant to mark down the valuations of portfolio companies during fundraising periods. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-18&r=all |
| By: | Karlan, Dean (Yale University and Innovations for Poverty Action); Osman, Adam (Yale University); Zinman, Jonathan (Dartmouth College and Innovations for Poverty Action) |
| Abstract: | Identifying the impacts of liquidity shocks on spending decisions is difficult methodologically but important for theory, practice, and policy. Using seven different methods on microenterprise loan applicants, we find striking results. Borrowers report uses of loan proceeds strategically, and more generally their reporting depends on elicitation method. Borrowers also interpret loan use questions differently than the key counterfactual: spending that would not have occurred sans loan. We identify the counterfactual using random assignment of loan approvals and short-run follow-up elicitation of major household and business cash outflows, and estimate that about 100% of loan-financed spending is on business inventory. |
| JEL: | D12 D22 D92 G21 O12 O16 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:126&r=all |
| By: | Gerdes, Christer (SOFI, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This study looks at the effects of participating in active labour market policy programs for persons with work disabilities. More in detail, it draws attention to the importance of taking into account the timing of when a work disability has been registered for persons attending ALMP programs. We argue that not controlling for time of events, i.e. the exact time a participant starts a program, as well as the time that person is being registered with a work disability, implies a risk of ending up with biased estimations with respect to the effectiveness of certain ALMP programs. |
| Keywords: | work disability, ALMP programs, endogenous selection, post registration bias |
| JEL: | C18 C52 D04 J18 H42 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9264&r=all |
| By: | ZEW |
| Abstract: | This is a comprehensive study of the existing wealth taxes and wealth tax provisions in the 28 Member States. As such, it offers an overview of the current use of wealth-related taxes in the EU, broken down in three main categories: inheritance and gift taxes, real estate and land taxation, and taxes on net wealth. The first part presents the information in a structured way, comparing the situation in the Member States with the help of summary tables and graphs. The second part contains extensive country material, including recent changes in legislation. The study also attempts to quantify the importance of the different taxes, in terms of revenues and by establishing scenarios for tax payers. |
| Keywords: | European Union, taxation, wealth, transfers of wealth |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0051&r=all |
| By: | Fátima Cardoso; Ana Sequeira |
| Abstract: | This article presents quarterly historical series (1977-2014) which are consistent with the latest version of National Accounts published by Statistics Portugal. The information provided covers a wide set of variables and corresponds to the quarterly historical series update, regularly published by Banco de Portugal. It includes data for 2014 and incorporates the revision of the previous data according to ESA 2010. Simultaneously, we describe in detail the methodological procedures applied in the construction of the series, aiming for a greater comparability over time. The series released in this paper are distributed in three blocks: expenditure, disposable income and the labour market. |
| JEL: | C82 E0 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:o201501&r=all |
| By: | Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Compared with gasoline engines, diesel fuel engines significantly reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, but they emit more nitrogen oxides and other pollutants. Across countries, the market share of diesel fuel engines in passenger vehicles varies from close to zero to more than 80 percent. After specifying and estimating the parameters of a model of vehicle markets spanning seven European countries, I show that vehicle taxes and demand for fuel economy, rather than fuel prices or the set of vehicles in the market, explain adoption. The model is used to compare the environmental implications of fuel taxes and carbon dioxide emissions rate standards. |
| Keywords: | vehicle demand estimation, demand for fuel economy and performance, fuel taxes, vehicle taxes, carbon dioxide emissions ratesCreation-Date: 2015-08-17 |
| JEL: | L62 Q4 Q5 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-14-08-rev&r=all |
| By: | Ani Khalatyan |
| Abstract: | The Armenian economy has been growing strongly in recent years. The country has successfully implemented a comprehensive stabilisation and a structural reform program in energy sector. Although now Armenia almost completely depends on imported energy. The most domestically produced primary energy is electricity from hydroelectric plants and one nuclear power plant. However, there are serious challenges: a. Sufficient electricity service b. Energy safety c. Maintenance of electricity service availability for consumers at the same time providing the financial vitality of the sector. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p1800&r=all |
| By: | Strain, Michael R. (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research); Webber, Douglas A. (Temple University) |
| Abstract: | Using within-high-school variation and controlling for a measure of cognitive ability, this paper finds that high-school leadership experiences explain a significant portion of the residual gender wage gap and selection into management occupations. Our results imply that high-school leadership could build non-cognitive, productive skills that are rewarded years later in the labor market and that explain a portion of the systematic difference in pay between men and women. Alternatively, high-school leadership could be a proxy variable for personality characteristics that differ between men and women and that drive higher pay and becoming a manager. Because high school leadership experiences are exogenous to direct labor market experiences, our results leave less room for direct labor market discrimination as a driver of the gender wage gap and occupation selection. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, noncognitive skills, occupational choice |
| JEL: | J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9277&r=all |
| By: | Altunok, Fatih; Mitchell, Karlyn; Pearce, Douglas |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether a trade credit channel mitigates monetary policy tightenings intended to slow economic activity. Unlike prior research, we study this issue using quarterly firm-level data for nearly the universe of non-financial public corporations and using more precise measures of their credit market access. We estimate firm-level models of the supply and demand for trade credit from 1988 to 2008. Our evidence suggests that policy tightenings evoke a flow of trade credit from public firms commensurate with their credit market access which goes primarily to private firms, a previously undocumented finding. |
| Keywords: | trade credit, trade credit channel, monetary policy transmission |
| JEL: | E5 E52 G1 |
| Date: | 2015–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66273&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Adam Swinburn |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Maryland's experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | Maryland, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:9360a98c0fdd4d52a52a4859a1c14de0&r=all |
| By: | Hou, Kewei (OH State University); Xue, Chen (University of Cincinnati); Zhang, Lu (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2014) q-factor model and the Fama and French (2014a) five-factor model on both conceptual and empirical grounds. Four concerns cast doubt on the five-factor model: The internal rate of return often correlates negatively with the one-period-ahead expected return; the value factor seems redundant in the data; the expected investment tends to correlate positively with the one-period-ahead expected return; and past investment is a poor proxy for the expected investment. Empirically, the four-factor q-model outperforms the five-factor model, especially in capturing price and earnings momentum and profitability anomalies. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-05&r=all |
| By: | Florence Allard-Poesi (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Yvonne Giordano (GREDEG - GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This research aims to understand how leaders with different expertise perform distributed leadership through their discursive acts. Relying on Searle's (1976) Speech Acts Theory and its derivative model of organizing through communication as developed by Cooren (2001) and Fairhurst (2007; Cooren & Fairhurst, 2004), we conduct an in-depth analysis of the interactions (through emails and phone calls) between the forecasters (the " earth ") and the team leaders (the " sky ") during the summit attempts of two commercial expeditions: one to Broad Peak and one to Mt. Everest via the Northern Ridge. Our research contributes to the understanding of the enactment of distributed leadership in three ways. Firstly, it provides an unprecedented description of the pattern of speech acts through which leaders perform two configurations of distributed leadership, namely coordinated leadership and collaborated leadership (Spillane, 2006). Secondly, the process analysis conducted on the forecaster and team leader interactions shows that these two leadership configurations do not completely substitute for each other, contrary to what previous studies in education have argued, but can coexist during the same expedition. Thirdly, our research contributes to a socio-constructionist perspective on leadership in showing how, while confronted with similar physical, technological, and socioeconomic conditions and demands, the team leaders and the forecasters enact noticeably different leadership configurations. ! Although, since the late 1980s, 8000m summits have attracted an increasing number of commercial expeditions, the 1996 Everest tragedy reminds us that mountaineering at high altitudes remains highly risky (Krakauer, 1997; Kayes, 2004; Tempest, Starkey, & Ennew, 2007). Making sense of and adapting to a hostile, complex, and fast-changing environment requires not only that the individual be in very good physical condition and possess a high level of technical expertise and experience, but also have the capacity to adapt to, if not anticipate, a hostile, ever-changing environment; a capacity that becomes all the more vulnerable as physical, emotional, and cognitive abilities become severely altered due to fatigue, cold, and lack of oxygen (Elmes & Frame, 2008). ! Since the 1996 tragedy, mountaineering has dramatically evolved. To increase their probability of success in summit attempts, and thus the commercial attractiveness of their business, team leaders do not hesitate to use the latest communication technologies (i.e., usually the internet at Base Camp, and mobile and sat phones at higher altitudes) and weather forecasts. Commercial expeditions, in particular, are now systematically assisted by professional forecasters – located worldwide – who send them daily updated weather forecasts that detail the various ascent parameters. Temperature, humidity, wind, and risks of snowfall and storms are estimated for the next few hours and days at different altitudes and for the particular slope of the mountain where the team is |
| Date: | 2015–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01172683&r=all |
| By: | Chernenko, Sergey (OH State University); Hanson, Samuel Gregory (Harvard University); Sunderam, Adi (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and private-label mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by nonprime loans played a central role in the recent financial crisis. Little is known, however, about the underlying forces that drove investor demand for these securitizations. Using micro-data on insurers' and mutual funds' bond holdings, we find considerable heterogeneity in investor demand for securitizations in the pre-crisis period. We argue that both investor beliefs and incentives help to explain this variation in demand. By contrast, our data paints a more uniform picture of investor behavior in the crisis. Consistent with theories of optimal liquidation, investors largely traded in more liquid securities such as government-guaranteed MBS to meet their liquidity needs during the crisis. |
| JEL: | G01 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-16&r=all |
| By: | Graeme O'Meara |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the ongoing debate over the causes of housing bubbles. The argument that excessively low interest rates were responsible for the run up in house prices over the last decade has received considerable attention in the literature. However, few papers have attempted to quantify the extent of house price overvaluation in countries that have seen housing booms and busts, in addition to quantifying the looseness of monetary policy. For a sample of 10 OECD countries, we estimate fundamental house prices using demand and supply side characteristics of the housing market. This is supplemented with analysis of price to rent ratios and fundamental price to rent ratios. Loose monetary policy is defined as the deviation of the short term interest rate from the rate which the Taylor rule would prescribe. The empirical results suggest that for some countries deviations from the Taylor rule played a role in the surge in house prices and that a monetary policy stance less discretionary and more closely aligned with a Taylor rule could curtail some of the imbalance in the housing market. |
| Keywords: | Housing bubbles; Taylor rule; Monetary policy; Interest rates |
| JEL: | E52 E58 R31 F33 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/6435&r=all |
| By: | Padmaja Ayyagari; David Frisvold |
| Abstract: | Prior literature has documented a positive association between income and cognitive function at older ages, however, the extent to which this association represents causal effects is unknown. In this study, we use an exogenous change in Social Security income due to amendments to the Social Security Act in the 1970s to identify the causal impact of Social Security income on cognitive function of elderly individuals. We find that higher benefits led to significant improvements in cognitive function and that these improvements in cognition were clinically meaningful. Our results suggest that interventions even at advanced ages can slow the rate of decline in cognitive function. |
| JEL: | H55 I12 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21484&r=all |
| By: | Sidibe, Tidiani |
| Abstract: | The debate on the relevance of monetary cooperation agreements with France was back in the saddle by former Malian Prime Minister Moussa MARA July 23, 2015 during a radio broadcast; and Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno during the 55th anniversary of his country's 2015 Tuesday, August 11 The latter threw a big spanner in the franc zone, arguing that currency allows us to develop. Also, some harsh criticism, consider that the CFA franc, pegged to a strong euro hampers the competitiveness of our exports of raw materials quoted in dollars or pounds on the main financial centers in New York, London. This article shows the opposite, highlighting the arguments of stability and credibility enjoyed by the CFA franc. Indeed, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the CFA franc jouie good parity level relative to trading partners, which means that the CFA franc is neither undervalued nor overestimates. Member countries become more competitive. The foreign reserves of the central banks (BCEAO and BEAC) represented the end of December 2014, only 4.9 months of imports. Monetary cooperation with France is not a zero sum game, it's a win-win partnership. Priority should be given to macroeconomic convergence. |
| Keywords: | Zone franc, central bank , currency, monetary maturity, foreign exchange reserves, real effective exchange rate ( REER) , exchange parity, unlimited convertibility guarantee, transaction accounts , devaluation , monetary policy, opportunity cost , common currency ECOWAS. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66275&r=all |
| By: | Bjarni G. Einarsson |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new data on Icelandic labour market flows between employment, unemployment, and inactivity, constructed from the microdata in Statistics Iceland’s Labour Force Survey (LFS). An analysis of the contribution of the transition rates to the dynamics of unemployment is then performed. Assuming a fixed labour force yields results comparable to previous estimates in Iceland, with a third of the variation in steady-state unemployment explained by the job finding rate, a significant departure from what is found in Anglo-Saxon, continental European, and Nordic economies. Taking account of movements in and out of the labour force has a significant effect on contributions of transition rates to variations in steady-state unemployment, with inactivity transitions accounting for roughly a third of the variability in steady-state unemployment and a dead-even split of the remaining two-thirds between the employment-unemployment and unemployment-employment transition rates. This contribution of inactivity transitions is comparable to that in the UK, US, and Spain. The background information available in the LFS indicates that some heterogeneity exists in the contributions by gender, age, and education, although not by location. The participation margin is thus an important source of variation in unemployment and needs to be accounted for to fully understand the drivers of Icelandic labour market fluctuations. Furthermore, ignoring transitions in and out of the labour force generates misleading results on the relative importance of the transition rates between employment and unemployment states in Iceland. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp69&r=all |
| By: | Lundborg, Petter (Lund University); Majlesi, Kaveh (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Studies on the intergenerational transmission of human capital usually assume a one-way spillover from parents to children. But what if children also affect their parents' human capital? Using exogenous variation in education, arising from a Swedish compulsory schooling reform in the 1950s and 1960s, we address this question by studying the causal effect of children's schooling on their parents' longevity. We first replicate previous findings of a positive and significant cross-sectional relationship between children's education and their parents' longevity. Our causal estimates tell a different story; children's schooling has no significant effect on parents' survival. These results hold when we examine separate causes of death and when we restrict the sample to low-income and low-educated parents. |
| Keywords: | human capital, mortality, education |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9280&r=all |
| By: | Cécile Perret (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - Université de Savoie) |
| Abstract: | Using a decomposition of social capital nature, this research performs an original analysis of the interactions between the social, the environmental, the governance and the economic sphere and their impact on a viable development in Kabylia (Algeria). In this region, the "art of association” is the expression of territoriality. When the governance is weak and/or when there is distrust in institutions, populations, according to their culture and to their territory, get organized to find solutions to the missing public goods. In Kabylia, the survival of an ancestral social organization (tajmaat) which has anchored in tradition and rooted values sometimes allows the local populations to overcome their difficulties. This paper demonstrates that the respect for deeply rooted regional identity as a cultural heritage, is necessary to perpetuate viable territorial development. |
| Date: | 2014–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01094761&r=all |
| By: | Prasad, Eswar (Cornell University); Zhang, Boyang (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a two-sector, heterogeneous-agent model with incomplete financial markets to study the distributional effects and aggregate welfare implications of alternative monetary policy rules in emerging market economies. Relative to inflation targeting, exchange rate management benefits households in the tradable goods sector but in the long run these households are worse off due to higher consumption volatility. A fixed exchange rate reduces the welfare of these households and aggregate welfare when the economy is hit by positive shocks to nontradable goods productivity or foreign interest rates. Fiscal policy can more efficiently achieve similar short-run distributional objectives as exchange rate management. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy rules, exchange rate management, interest rate smoothing, distributional effects, emerging markets, financial frictions, inflation targeting |
| JEL: | E25 E52 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9272&r=all |
| By: | Ramirez, Octavio A. |
| Abstract: | This appendix is comprised of two sections. The first section entitled “Yield Variability and Premium Estimation Error” establishes a range of plausible levels of crop insurance premium estimation error corresponding to typical corn production scenarios in the Midwestern US. The second section entitled “Distribution of Crop Insurance Subsidies” assesses the potential impact of such levels of premium estimation error on the distribution of the Crop Insurance subsidies across participating corn producers. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aepapa:162318&r=all |
| By: | Eraslan, Hulya (Rice University); Merlo, Antonio (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | It is commonly believed that, since unanimity rule safeguards the rights of each individual, it protects minorities from the possibility of expropriation, thus yielding more equitable outcomes than majority rule. We show that this is not necessarily the case in bargaining environments. We study a multilateral bargaining model a la Baron and Ferejohn (1989), where players are heterogeneous with respect to the potential surplus they bring to the bargaining table. We show that unanimity rule may generate equilibrium outcomes that are more unequal (or less equitable) than under majority rule. In fact, as players become perfectly patient, we show that the more inclusive the voting rule, the less equitable the equilibrium allocations. |
| JEL: | C78 D70 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-001&r=all |
| By: | Zura Kakushadze |
| Abstract: | We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing what we refer to as heterotic risk models (for equities), which combine: i) granularity of an industry classification; ii) diagonality of the principal component factor covariance matrix for any sub-cluster of stocks; and iii) dramatic reduction of the factor covariance matrix size in the Russian-doll risk model construction. This appears to prove a powerful approach for constructing out-of-sample stable short-lookback risk models. Thus, for intraday mean-reversion alphas based on overnight returns, Sharpe ratio optimization using our heterotic risk models sizably improves the performance characteristics compared to weighted regressions based on principal components or industry classification. We also give source code for: a) building statistical risk models; and ii) Sharpe ratio optimization with homogeneous linear constraints and position bounds. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04883&r=all |
| By: | Besley, Timothy J.; Leight, Jessica; Pande, Rohini; Rao, Vijayendra |
| Abstract: | Agricultural tenancy reforms have been widely enacted, but evidence on their long-run impact remains limited. In this paper, we provide such evidence by exploiting the quasi-random assignment of linguistically similar areas to different South Indian states that subsequently varied in tenancy regulation policies. Given imperfect credit markets, the impact of tenancy reform should vary by household wealth status, allowing us to exploit historic caste-based variation in landownership. Thirty years after the reforms, land inequality is lower in areas that saw greater intensity of tenancy reform, but the impact differs across caste groups. Tenancy reforms increase own-cultivation among middle-caste households, but render low-caste households more likely to work as daily agricultural laborers. At the same time, agricultural wages increase. These results are consistent with tenancy regulations increasing land sales to relatively richer and more productive middle-caste tenants, but reducing land access for poorer low-caste tenants. |
| Keywords: | inequality; Land reform; long-run impact of institutions |
| JEL: | H73 O12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10780&r=all |
| By: | Sacht, Stephen |
| Abstract: | In this paper we shed light on the relationship between labor market policy, entrepreneurship and youth unemployment prior to and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in Spain. We discuss the situation, where labor market and macroeconomic policies were largely inefficient in reducing high levels of (youth) unemployment after 2007. We rise the question why in a situation of low inflation rates, an increase in (youth) unemployment had been observed although the labor market becomes more flexible due to the associated structural reform in 2010. We call this the Spanish Puzzle. The main reason for this observation can be found in the phenomena of downward nominal rigidity and the existence of a liquidity trap. Given the recovery of the Spanish economy in 2015, this development is grounded on (besides the increase in private consumption and a trade surplus) several policy measurements in order to strengthen entrepreneurial activity in 2013. The corresponding boost in private investment expenditure can be identified as the sustainable main driver for job creation in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Spain,Labor Market Policy,Entrepreneurship,Youth Unemployment,Macroeconomic Policy |
| JEL: | E24 E61 J13 L26 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201555&r=all |
| By: | Joel M. David; Ina Simonovska |
| Abstract: | Firm-level stock returns exhibit comovement above that in fundamentals, and the gap tends to be higher in developing countries. We investigate whether correlated beliefs among sophisticated, but imperfectly informed, traders can account for the patterns of return correlations across countries. We take a unique approach by turning to direct data on market participants’ information - namely, real-time firm-level earnings forecasts made by equity market analysts. The correlations of firm-level forecasts exceed those of fundamentals and are strongly related to return correlations across countries. A calibrated information-based model demonstrates that the correlation of beliefs implied by analyst forecasts leads to return correlations broadly in line with the data, both in levels and across countries - the correlation between predicted and actual is 0.63. Our findings have implications for market-wide volatility - the model-implied correlations alone can explain 44% of the cross-section of aggregate volatility. The results are robust to controlling for a number of alternative factors put forth by the existing literature. |
| JEL: | D8 G12 G15 G17 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21480&r=all |
| By: | Paul Feichtinger (Former PhD student at the Technische Universität München); Klaus Salhofer (Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna) |
| Abstract: | Based on 7,300 agricultural land sales transactions we estimate the effect of the 2003 reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on land prices. As opposed to the main body of the literature on agricultural land values, we do not start from a demand-oriented net present value approach or hedonic prizing method, but derive our reduced form pricing equation from a spatial land sales market model. Our empirical model accounts for spatial dependence and endogeneity of explanatory variables. A reduction of payments by 50 €/ha would decrease land sales prices by 445 €/ha before and by 984 €/ha after the reform. |
| Keywords: | agricultural land prices, Common Agricultural Policy, spatial econometrics |
| JEL: | Q15 Q18 C21 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sed:wpaper:582015&r=all |
| By: | Zbranek, Peter |
| Abstract: | The common agricultural policy affects a broad range of issues on farms. Their productivity is no exception and CAP can affect it with different intensities and in different directions. CAP was introduced in the Slovak Republic after its accession to the EU in 2004. From that moment there was a significant increase in number of farms receiving subsidies. The aim of this paper was therefore to analyze the impact of these changes on the development of productivity and its components on the Slovak farms. The research consisted of two stages. The first stage we got a detailed picture of the evolving nature of the performance of Slovak crop and livestock farms in the period 2000-2012 by applying two approaches to evaluation of change in total factor productivity and its components, namely Malmquist Productivity Indices and Luenberger Productivity Indicators. We found that on average both types of farms increased their total factor productivity during the specified period. The driving force behind this development was the technological progress, the slowing factor was deterioration of technical efficiency of farms. By way of further decomposition of Malmquist indices we have also revealed Hicks-non-neutral technical change in the character of Slovak agriculture since the industry increasingly opted for automation and mechanization of production and mitigated use of the workforce. In the second stage we applied Random Effect Models for analyzing panel data to examine the effects of accession to the EU on the development of performance indicators of Slovak farms and input bias of technical change. We found that dependence on farm subsidy policy was significantly higher after joining the Union, while total factor productivity after 2004 developed worse for both types of farms. The effect of changes in the share of total subsidies received on total farm income was the net effect of investment induced productivity growth and the negative effect of efficiency loss. The first prevailed in the case of crop and the second one in the case of livestock farms. |
| Keywords: | Malmquist Productivity Indices, Luenberger Productivity Indicators, EU accession, Common Agricultural Policy, input bias of technical change, Agricultural and Food Policy, C23, C25, C44, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aiea15:207353&r=all |
| By: | Kenn Ariga (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate impacts of two major increases in minimum wage of Thailand in 2012, and 2013. In spite of the large increase in average wage induced by the hike, the e¤ect on employment is positive. Given that roughly 40% of daily wage samples are less than the minimum, we build and estimate a model that incorpo- rate (minimum wage) compliance decision. We use the switching regressions to estimate the gap in wages between above and below minimum wage. This gap is sizable and statistically signi cant for daily wage, but small and statistically insigni cant for monthly wage. When the employer's probability for compliance is included in the employment probability of individuals, we nd that the higher compliance rate positively in- fluence the employment probability. These ndings strongly suggest that the minimum wage hike in 2012~13 induced north-eastward shift of the equilibrium along the labor supply schedule. In the last part of the analysis, we o¤er a va- riety of circumstantial evidence in support of tacit collusion among large scale employers in setting daily wages. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, minimum wage compliance, Thailand |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J42 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:927&r=all |
| By: | Wolfgang Sofka (Copenhagen Business School (Denmark)) |
| Abstract: | The report offers an analysis of the R&I system in Germany for 2014, including relevant policies and funding, with particular focus on topics critical for two EU policies: the European Research Area and the Innovation Union. The report was prepared according to a set of guidelines for collecting and analysing a range of materials, including policy documents, statistics, evaluation reports, websites etc. The report identifies the structural challenges of the German research and innovation system and assesses the match between the national priorities and those challenges, highlighting the latest policy developments, their dynamics and impact in the overall national context. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Germany |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc96485&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Ian Hill; Ashley Palmer; Margo Wilkinson; Arnav Shah |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from New Mexico's experience in the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | New Mexico, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:60761267633f4ba7a9efcabce8b9eb90&r=all |
| By: | Maria Ferrara; Patrizio Tirelli |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that a medium-scale DSGE model is able to explain a contemporaneous reduction of output and consumption during a disinflation policy, as it is in the empirical evidence. To this aim, we introduce Rotemberg (1982) adjustment costs and the limited asset market participation assumption. |
| Keywords: | Disináation, Rotemberg price adjustment, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E31 E5 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:306&r=all |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); J. Sebastian Leguizamon (Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | We use household data from the Current Population Survey to calculate how the real value of the so-called "marriage tax" or "marriage subsidy" in the federal individual income tax has changed over the period 1969 to 2009. We examine three issues: the magnitude of the marriage tax/subsidy and its evolution over time, its effects on the distribution of income (including the effects of different demographic characteristics on the magnitudes and trends), and the causal factors in its evolution (e.g., tax changes, demographic changes). We find that the tax treatment of the family has changed significantly over time, from a large average marriage bonus in 1969, to a large marriage tax in much of the 1990s and early 2000s, to a large marriage subsidy since 2003. We also find that the marriage tax varies significantly and systematically by income level, as well as by the number of children in the family, the earnings ratios of the spouses, the race of the family, and the age of the household held. Finally, we find that changes in income and family composition have influenced the magnitudes and trends of marriage taxes and subsidies but that adjustments in the federal income tax code account for most of the observed changes. |
| Keywords: | marriage, individual income tax, marriage tax, taxable unit |
| JEL: | H24 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1511&r=all |
| By: | Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Finn E. Kydland (University of California–Santa Barbara and NBER); Roman Šustek (Queen Mary University of London and Centre for Macroeconomics) |
| Abstract: | Mortgages are prime examples of long-term nominal loans. As a result, under incomplete asset markets, monetary policy can affect household decisions through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and the value of payments on outstanding debt. These channels are distinct from the transmission through real interest rates. A stylized general equilibrium model in corporating these features is developed. Persistent monetary policy shocks, resembling the level factor in the nominal yield curve, have larger real effects than transitory shocks. The transmission is stronger under adjustable-than fixed-rate mortgages. Higher, persistent, inflation benefits homeowners under FRMs but hurts them under ARMs. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages, Debt servicing costs, Monetary policy, Residential investment |
| JEL: | E32 E52 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp751&r=all |
| By: | Sonja Brangewitz (University of Paderborn); Claus-Jochen Haake (University of Paderborn); Philipp Moehlmeier (Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the stability of networks when two intermediaries strategically form costly links to customers. We interpret these links as customer relationships that enable trade to sell a product. Equilibrium prices and equilibrium quantities on the output as well as on the input market are determined endogenously for a given network of customer relationships. We investigate in how far the substitutability of the intermediaries' products and the costs of link formation influence the intermediaries' equilibrium profits and thus have an impact on the incentives to strategically form relationships to customers. For networks with three customers we characterize locally stable networks, in particular existence is guaranteed for any degree of substitutability. Moreover for the special cases of perfect complements, independent products and perfect substitutes, local stability coincides with the stronger concept of Nash stability. Additionally, for networks with n customers we analyze stability regions for selected networks and determine their limits when n goes to infinity. It turns out that the shape of the stability regions for those networks does not significantly change compared to a setting with a small number of customers. |
| Keywords: | Network Formation, Product Differentiation, Oligopoly, Quantity Competition |
| JEL: | C70 D43 D85 L13 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:91&r=all |
| By: | Bakke, Tor-Erik (University of OK); Mahmudi, Hamed (University of OK); Fernando, Chitru S. (University of OK); Salas, Jesus M. (Lehigh University) |
| Abstract: | This study provides strong evidence of a causal effect of risk-taking incentives provided by option compensation on corporate risk management. We utilize the passage of FAS 123R, which required firms to expense options, to investigate how CEO option compensation affects the hedging behavior of oil and gas firms. Firms that did not expense options before FAS 123R significantly reduced option pay, which resulted in a large increase in their hedging intensity compared to firms that did not use options or expensed their options voluntarily prior to FAS 123R. |
| JEL: | G30 G32 G38 G39 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-08&r=all |
| By: | Pascal Le Masson (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Armand Hatchuel (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Olga Kokshagina (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Benoit Weil (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) |
| Abstract: | As underlined in Arthur’s book “the nature of technology” we are very knowledgeable on the design of objects, services or technical systems, but we don’t know much on the dynamics of technologies. Still contemporary innovation often consists in designing techniques with systemic impact. They are pervasive– both invasive and perturbing-, they recompose the family of techniques. Can we model the impact and the design of such techniques? More specifically: how can one design generic technology, ie a single technology that provokes a complete reordering of families of techniques? Recent advances in design theories open new possibilities to answer these questions. In this paper we use C-K design theory and a matroid-based model of the set of techniques to propose a new model (C-K/Ma) of the dynamics of techniques, accounting for the design of generic technologies. We show: • F1: C-K/Ma offers a computational model for designing a technique with systemic impact. • F2: C-K/Ma accounts for some phenomena associated to generic technology design. • F3: C-K/Ma offers an efficient guide for the design of technologies with systemic impact, based on generativity and genericity criteria |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01154149&r=all |
| By: | Kiesel, F.; Lücke, F.; Schiereck, D. |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the impact and effectiveness of the regulation on the European sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. The European sovereign debt crisis has drawn considerable attention to the CDS market. CDS have the ability of a speculative instrument to bet against a sovereign default. Therefore, the Regulation (EU) No. 236/2012 was introduced as the worldwide first uncovered CDS regulation. It prohibits buying uncovered sovereign CDS contracts in the European Union (EU). |
| Date: | 2015–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:74937&r=all |
| By: | Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda |
| Abstract: | Sustained economic growth in England can be traced back to the early seventeenth century. That earlier growth, albeit modest, both generated and was sustained by a demographic regime that entailed relatively high wages, and by an increasing endowment of human capital in the form of a relatively adaptable and skilled labour force. Healthier and savvier English workers were better equipped to profit from the technological possibilities available to them, and to build on them. Technological change and economic growth stemmed from such human capital rather than Boserupian forces. They were the product of England’s resource endowment and its institutions. |
| Keywords: | Economic history; Industrial revolution |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201418&r=all |
| By: | Okitonyumbe Y.F., Joseph; Ulungu, Berthold E.-L. |
| Abstract: | Résumé : La résolution du problème multi-objectif de tournées de distribution (MOVRP) par des méthodes dites exactes présente beaucoup de difficultés pour des instances de moyenne et grande dimensions. S’inspirant de l’une de trois approches identifiées par Ulungu & Teghem, à savoir l’approche méthodologique, pour résoudre les problèmes d’optimisation combinatoire multi-objectif et du comportement des araignées tissant des toiles nous concevons, à travers cet article, une hybridation de quatre heuristiques dédicacées au problème VRP mono-objectif grâce à la méthode du repère préférentiel de dominance : algorithme de toile d’araignées. Un exemple didactique valide notre démarche. Abstract : Solving the multiobjective vehicle routing problem (MOVRP) by exact methods present many difficulties for average and large size instances. Inspired by one of three approaches identified by Ulungu & Teghem, namely the methodological approach for solving multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems and behavior of spiders weaving webs we conceives, through this paper, hybridization of four inscribed heuristics to classical VRP with dominance preferential mark method : cobweb algorithm. A didactic example validates our approach. |
| Keywords: | Mots clés : Gains, Heuristique, Hybridation , Problème multi-objectif de tournées de distribution, Solution efficace, Repère préférentiel de dominance. Keyword :Saving, Heuristic, Hybridization, Multiobjectif Vehicle Routing Problem, efficient solutions, Dominance preferential reference mark method. |
| JEL: | C61 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66193&r=all |
| By: | Ronald Fischer; Diego Huerta |
| Abstract: | Potential entrepreneurs require capital for investment in projects. They are differentiated by wealth and can abscond with the funds from a loan. In this setting, agents with little wealth are unable to fund their projects, those with intermediate levels of wealth can fund inefficiently sized projects and only wealthy entrepreneurs can attain the efficient firm size. We show that improvements in the legal framework for loans improves economic efficiency, by improving access to credit and by increasing the size of loans for projects. We also examine the effects of wealth redistribution. Its effects depend on the aggregate wealth of the economy; in countries with low wealth, redistribution may reduce economic efficiency and GDP, while it may increase economic efficiency and GDP in a wealthy economy. Next, we consider an economy with labor and risky projects. We recover the main results of the simpler model, and we examine the effects of having priority of workers in bankruptcy. We show that it leads to conflicting interests between workers in large and small firms as well as conflicts between small and large entrepreneurs with respect to improvements in the financial system. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:765&r=all |
| By: | Ćwiklicki, Marek; Alcouffe, Alain |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to fulfill and to refine the role of consultancy and professional bodies in dissemination of management innovations in the Inter- and Postwar Period that was in these days scientific management in Europe. The proposition is set upon the case of French consultancies and organizing bodies (i.e. professional societies and associations) and their activities to popularize the scientific management movement with a special reference to the Henry Bernaténé’s output. |
| Keywords: | business history, dissemination, management innovation, consultancy |
| JEL: | B2 B3 M1 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66225&r=all |
| By: | Calmfors, Lars (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | EU-level fiscal rules have not been able to prevent the large-scale accumulation of government debt in many eurozone countries. One explanation was major flaws in the rules. Some of these flaws have now been corrected. But the failure of the rules depended also on fundamental problems of time inconsistency. The same time-inconsistency problems that the rules were designed to address also apply to the rules themselves. Fiscal councils may be subject to less of such problems than rules. Still it is unlikely that a monetary union where bail-outs of governments are part of the system is viable in the long run. The sustainability of the euro may require a restoration of the no-bail-out clause and a strengthening of the banking union in ways that would allow it to cope with the financial repercussions that could arise from allowing government bankruptcies |
| Keywords: | Fiscal rules; Fiscal councils; European integration |
| JEL: | E61 E63 F55 |
| Date: | 2015–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1076&r=all |
| By: | Yange Xue; Eileen Bandel; Cheri A. Vogel; Kimberly Boller |
| Abstract: | Early Head Start programs are expected to assess child progress on an ongoing basis to ensure that children are developing the skills they need to be ready for school. |
| Keywords: | language development, assessment, screening tools, baby faces, infant toddler |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e1917ef93e604c7b827c1ba3cfcf5d4d&r=all |
| By: | Santos Silva, J.M.C; Tenreyro, Silvana; Wei, Kehai |
| Abstract: | Understanding and quantifying the determinants of the number of sectors or firms exporting in a given country is of relevance for the assessment of trade policies. Estimation of models for the number of sectors, however, poses a challenge because the dependent variable has both a lower and an upper bound, implying that the partial effects of the explanatory variables on the conditional mean of the dependent variable cannot be constant and must approach zero as the conditional mean approaches its bounds. We argue that ignoring these bounds can lead to erroneous conclusions due to the model's mispecification, and propose a flexible specification that accounts for the doubly-bounded nature of the dependent variable. We empirically investigate the problem and the proposed solution, finding significant differences between estimates obtained with the proposed estimator and those obtained with standard approaches. |
| Keywords: | bounded data; extensive margin of trade; number of sectors |
| JEL: | C13 C25 F11 F14 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10787&r=all |
| By: | Ben-Bassat, Avi; Dahan, Momi; Klor, Esteban F |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the centralization program implemented in Israel in 2004 to analyze whether the administrative subordination of municipalities is an effective policy to deal with problems related to soft-budget constraint of lower level governments. The results consistently show, for different specifications and samples of municipalities, that this program brought a substantial decrease of municipalities’ expenditures (mostly because of decreases on salary payments), and an increase of local property tax collection. Our analysis shows that all of the fiscal impact of the program is due to the appointment of an accountant that reports directly to the central government, a relatively mild form of administrative subordination. In contrast, more intrusive forms of subordination, like the central imposition of a recovery program, do not result in any substantial improvement of municipalities’ fiscal situation. This leads us to conclude that a mild form of administrative subordination is an effective tool to cope with problems related to soft-budget constraints, whereas political subordination is not an effective tool to reach that goal. |
| Keywords: | bailout program; centralization; hierarchical subordination; local government; soft budget constraints |
| JEL: | D82 H57 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10789&r=all |
| By: | Atienza, Maria Ela L. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how human security is viewed in the Philippines. The research collects and maps out perspectives and interpretations of human security among key stakeholders in the Philippines, namely academics, government officials and agencies, civil society groups, and local communities. The research methods employed are: review of academic literature, relevant policy documents, position papers, etc.; face-to-face or online interviews with different stakeholders; and focus group discussions with some local communities. The following are the major questions: (1) How do stakeholders and their institutions understand human security as a concept? (2) What are the different threats or risks to human security in the Philippines and the region? How can these be addressed or are these already being addressed? Who can address these risks and threats? (3) Has the concept of human security been mainstreamed in government and society? What are the future prospects of promoting the practice of human security in the country? Based on the study, there is an acknowledgement among different sectors in the Philippines of the importance of the human security concept, despite diverse understanding across sectors, in dealing with various threats and vulnerabilities faced by various groups in the Philippines. However, the concept itself needs further clarification and contextualization in the local setting to be better understood and used by a larger group of people. Currently, the concept is used by a limited group of people, mostly academics and some civil society groups. While there should be efforts to further clarify the concept, there should be efforts as well to make it understandable to more people, particularly those vulnerable to security threats and risks. |
| Date: | 2015–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:98&r=all |
| By: | Konstantin Vishnevskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dirk Meissner (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Olga Egorova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes an approach to foresight for SME enterprises. Foresight has become a frequently used tool for technology and innovation management generally limited large corporations. Presumably this is mainly due to the complexity of the corporate foresight concept itself and the need to invest substantial resources. To overcome this challenge and make corporate foresight also applicable for small and medium sized enterprises an adjusted methodological approach is developed taking into account the special requirements and limitations of SMEs. Based on an analysis of best practices for the development of theoretical and methodological approaches to foresight for SMEs an approach is developed taking into account the limitations of financial, human and time resources inherent to SMEs is introduced. |
| Keywords: | corporate foresight, SMEs, roadmapping, innovation, scenarios |
| JEL: | O11 O18 O32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:45sti2015&r=all |
| By: | Sandrine Mathy (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Odile Blanchard (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | The stakes for alleviating poverty and avoiding unbridled climate change are inextricably linked. Climate change impacts will slow down and may even reverse trends in poverty reduction. The pathways consistent with global warming of no more than 2°C require strategies for poverty alleviation to make allowance for the constraint of low-carbon development. Existing climate funds have failed to target poverty alleviation as a high-priority strategy for adaptation or as a component of low-carbon development. This article proposes a funding window as part of the Green Climate Fund in order to foster synergies targeting greater satisfaction of basic needs, while making allowance for adaptation and mitigation. This financial mechanism is based on indicators of the satisfaction of basic needs and could respond to the claims of the developing countries which see alleviating poverty as the first priority in the climate negotiations. It defines a country continuum, given that there are poor people everywhere; all developing countries are therefore eligible with a mechanism of this sort. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01149008&r=all |
| By: | Francois, Emmanuel Jean |
| Abstract: | Perspectives of individuals who are involved in cross-cultural and cross-societal communications can be very insightful in facilitating authentic intercultural interactions. The Cross-cultural Readiness Exposure Scale (CRES) was developed to capture the level of readiness of individuals prior to intercultural interactions. The initial items were generated from focus groups involving undergraduate and graduate students in the United States. The items were pilot tested on a convenience sample of participants from various countries of the world. The CRES had sufficient validity and reliability, and can be used as a formative evaluation instrument to assess the level of readiness of individuals or groups who will be involved in intercultural interactions through study abroad, international service learning, internship abroad, or assignments in a foreign country. |
| Keywords: | Intercultural competence, cross-cultural competence, global competence, intercultural communication, study abroad, working abroad |
| JEL: | H0 H00 H8 I20 P0 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65910&r=all |
| By: | Marieke Blondet (Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière, INRA - AgroParisTech; MNHN UMR 7206 Eco-anthropologie et ethnobiologie) |
| Abstract: | The issue of climate change is progressively entering the field of forest management in France and Europe. It poses significant questions to forest managers since forest management is made on a very long time scale. Decisions taken today will impact forest for many years and climate change may threaten these long term investments. According to scientists, beech forest is particularly sensitive to drought and may disappear in the coming years due to global warming. Beech is also one of the protected species in the Annexes of the Habitat Directive. To face and bring answers to this issue of the future of beech forest before this change in climate conditions various actors from the forest sector, the conservationist organisations and the policy-making sphere are engaging at the national level. Yet they carry different views of the issue. What are at play, there, are competing positions and perceptions toward nature protection, sustainable forest management and biodiversity integrity. Nevertheless, in the field, our research shown that local people barely consider the issue of climate change as clearly relevant for them since they have not noticed worrying enough signs of environmental change in their surrounding at that stage. As a consequence they are not that much engaged in adapting to the climate’s new conditions such as the various stakeholders at the national level. Our article therefore analyses this issue and the interacting and often conflicting perceptions of this issue by the various social actors at different level of the policy-making process. The problem of beech forest under climate change is, indeed, the arena for power relationships between various political stakeholders that we will describe here. We will then show that this competition could be quite disconnected from the life and views of the people in the field. Environmental change remains an issue for the top national experts and policy makers. |
| Keywords: | climate change, engagement, discourse, power relationship, virtualism |
| JEL: | Z13 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lef:wpaper:2015-03&r=all |
| By: | Dung, Pham Lan; Lan, Nguyen Ngoc |
| Abstract: | Human security is a concept that has caught the attention of governments and scholars around the world, despite having emerged only fairly recently. In most countries, however, the level of understanding of the concept and its related issues remains low. This study aims to determine how the concept of human security is understood in Vietnam. It begins with a review of the law and policies relating to human security in Vietnam. This review shows that the human security concept has not been acknowledged or regulated in any official documents of the State. The constituent elements of human security, however, can be distilled from legislation even though the connection to it is not explicitly made. A literature review pertaining to this issue also demonstrates that within the epistemic community, human security is not a common topic of discussion. Only a few authors have attempted to analyze it in the context of Vietnam. Finally, the findings gathered from interviews conducted with representatives from five sectors, including the government, epistemic community, civil societies, media, and private business, help provide a more accurate picture regarding the level of awareness of human security issues in Vietnam. In general, the interviewees were not familiar with the concept itself, but were able to quickly link it, and threats to human security, to different aspects of their lives. The research has also found that there is a high expectation that the government will assume a leading role in protecting and promoting human security in Vietnam. |
| Date: | 2015–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:100&r=all |
| By: | Christophe Salvat (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | In this article I address the question of the moral legitimacy of paternalism. Paternalism is considered illegitimate a) when it acts under false pretenses to satisfy the interest of the paternalist agent, b) when it violates the individual autonomy of the people interfered with and c) when it does not respect the equality between people by singling out those who are deemed unable to decide for themselves. Over the last decade a new type of paternalism has emerged thanks to the groundbreaking works of some behavioral economists. This new type of paternalism, that I call here Behavioral Paternalism (BP), has become popular through Sunstein and Thaler's Nudges theory and challenges the view that paternalism is unacceptable today. The aim of this paper is to assess its moral legitimacy (not exclusively focusing on the autonomy proviso). The results of my investigation can be summarized as follows. Though BP is usually acknowledged for its 'libertarian' character, it does not satisfy the conditions of what is considered, since Feinberg, as 'soft paternalism'. Nevertheless, BP has a strong point that has been underestimated by its partisans: it withstands the equality argument. Unlike traditional forms of paternalism, BP is not demeaning and does not ostracize any category of people. Lastly, BP can be proved genuinely altruistic. This, however, demands that one abandons Sunstein and Thaler's main assumptions. |
| Date: | 2014–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00947142&r=all |
| By: | Bai, Hang (OH State University); Hou, Kewei (OH State University); Kung, Howard (London Business School); Zhang, Lu (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | Value stocks are more exposed to disaster risk than growth stocks. Embedding disasters into an investment-based asset pricing model induces strong nonlinearity in the pricing kernel. Our single-factor model reproduces the failure of the CAPM in explaining the value premium in finite samples in which disasters are not materialized, and its relative success in samples in which disasters are materialized. The relation between pre-ranking market betas and average returns is flat in simulations, despite a strong positive relation between true market betas and expected returns. Evidence in the long U.S. sample from 1926 to 2014 lends support to the model's key predictions. |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-03&r=all |
| By: | Giulietti, Corrado (IZA); Tonin, Mirco (University of Southampton); Vlassopoulos, Michael (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | Discrimination in access to public services can act as a major obstacle towards addressing racial inequality. We examine whether racial discrimination exists in access to a wide spectrum of public services in the US. We carry out an email correspondence study in which we pose simple queries to more than 19,000 local public service providers. We find that emails are less likely to receive a response if signed by a black-sounding name compared to a white-sounding name. Given a response rate of 72% for white senders, emails from putatively black senders are almost 4 percentage points less likely to receive an answer. We also find that responses to queries coming from black names are less likely to have a cordial tone. Further tests demonstrate that the differential in the likelihood of answering is due to animus towards blacks rather than inferring socioeconomic status from race. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, public services provision, school districts, libraries, sheriffs, field experiment, correspondence study |
| JEL: | D73 H41 J15 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9290&r=all |
| By: | Gaël Plumecocq (AGIR - AGrosystèmes et développement terrItoRial - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the discourse produced in the academic journal Ecological Economics from its inception in 1989, and compares this discourse with that of the field of environmental economics. I used methods for discourse analysis (Alceste and Iramuteq) on 6,308 abstracts of papers published in four journals – namely Ecological Economics, the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Environmental Values, and Environmental and Resource Economics, published between 1989 and 2013. The results suggest that the discourse of ecological economics and environmental economics have grown closer over time. The semantic classification of co-occurrent terms used in Ecological Economics indicates increasing significance of the notions of ecosystem services and of monetary valuation. I argue that this trend is parallel to Costanza’s career-path, which suggests the rise of a tacit recognition of the New Environmental Pragmatic scientific approach. I conclude with some of the implications for EE of promoting this kind of discourse to such an extent. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01089457&r=all |
| By: | Emile Quinet |
| Abstract: | Factoring sustainable development into the appraisal of investment projects is a topical issue at both the analytical and the decision-making level. In the area of analysis, we find numerous studies and research projects devoted to the assessment of environmental damage and its translation into monetary terms. The analysis concerns both “flow” damage such as pollution and noise, and “stock” damage with long-term cumulative effect, such as global warming and the reduction of biodiversity. In the area of decisionmaking, efforts are being undertaken in many countries to achieve better integration of these concerns in project appraisal and the related cost-benefit analysis. France is no exception: a working party recently set up to revise the methodology for appraising public investment projects has just completed its deliberations. It paid close attention to considerations of sustainable development and the factoring of the long term, and the present paper is based largely on its recommendations. In what follows, we shall endeavour to analyse those recommendations in the light of scientific knowledge and place them in the French institutional and politico-administrative context. |
| Date: | 2013–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2013/31-en&r=all |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain); Yu-Chieh Wu (National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | Taiwan has been hailed as a world leader in the development of global innovation and industrial clusters for the past decade. This paper investigates the effects of industrial agglomeration on the use of the internet and internet intensity for Taiwan manufacturing firms, and analyses whether the relationships between industrial agglomeration and total expenditure on internet usage for industries are substitutes or complements. The sample observations are based on 153,081 manufacturing plants, and covers 26 2-digit industry categories and 358 geographical townships in Taiwan. The Heckman selection model is used to adjust for sample selectivity for unobservable data for firms that use the internet. The empirical results from two-stage estimation show that: (1) for the industry overall, a higher degree of industrial agglomeration will not affect the probability that firms will use the internet, but will affect the total expenditure on internet usage; and (2) for 2-digit industries, industrial agglomeration generally decreases the total expenditure on internet usage, which suggests that industrial agglomeration and total expenditure on internet usage are substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Industrial agglomeration and clusters; Global innovation; Internet penetration; Manufacturing firms; Sample selection; Incidental truncation |
| JEL: | D22 L60 |
| Date: | 2015–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150098&r=all |
| By: | Gary-Bobo, Robert J.; Nur, Jamil |
| Abstract: | We study the allocation of housing capital in an overlapping generations economy with competitive property and housing rental markets. In this economy, consumers inherit property from their parents when they retire. Agents have paternalistic bequest motives. All agents are identical and there is no redistribution problem. The stationary competitive equilibrium of such a model is inefficient, since old agents consume too much perishable goods and too much housing. We then show that the golden rule stationary optimum can be achieved by means of a simple system of proportional taxes. The optimal allocation is characterized by the fact that the young agents rent their homes and that the old agents own the entire stock of housing capital. An optimal tax system has the following features: the young agents' rents must be subsidized. Housing capital and rents are both taxed. But bequests must be subsidized. Bequest and rent subsidies are financed by labor income tax and property tax revenues. Rent subsidies are financed by the tax on rents. The government's budget is balanced. The negative tax on bequests can be interpreted as a pension benefit, paid out of a public pension fund, based on the market value of the housing-capital stock. |
| Keywords: | bequests; capital taxation; housing; overlapping generation; real estate; rents |
| JEL: | H2 H3 H6 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10774&r=all |
| By: | Nicola Moreni; Andrea Pallavicini |
| Abstract: | We present a general derivation of the arbitrage-free pricing framework for multiple-currency collateralized products. We include the impact on option pricing of the policy adopted to fund in foreign currency, so that we are able to price contracts with cash flows and/or collateral accounts expressed in foreign currencies inclusive of funding costs originating from dislocations in the FX market. Then, we apply these results to price cross-currency swaps under different market situations, to understand how to implement a feasible curve bootstrap procedure. We present the main practical problems arising from the way the market is quoting liquid instruments: uncertainties about collateral currencies and renotioning features. We discuss the theoretical requirements to implement curve bootstrapping and the approximations usually taken to practically implement the procedure. We also provide numerical examples based on real market data. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04321&r=all |
| By: | Andreasen, Martin M (Aarhus University and CREATES); Meldrum, Andrew (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | We use a no-arbitrage shadow rate term structure model to estimate investors’ views about the timing of monetary policy ‘lift-off’ in the United Kingdom over time. Our estimates show that when the UK policy rate was first cut to 0.5%, in March 2009, investors believed that it would remain at the lower bound only for a short period, with an estimated probability of 70% that the policy rate would rise above 0.75% within twelve months. The estimated median horizon for policy rate lift-off rose sharply in 2012 but fell back to thirteen months by the end of our sample period, in May 2014. |
| Keywords: | Shadow rate models; sequential regression estimation; policy lift-off; zero lower bound. |
| JEL: | C10 C50 G12 |
| Date: | 2015–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0541&r=all |
| By: | Scheuer, Florian; Werning, Iván |
| Abstract: | How are optimal taxes affected by the presence of superstar phenomena at the top of the earnings distribution? To answer this question, we extend the Mirrlees model to incorporate an assignment problem in the labor market that generates superstar effects. Perhaps surprisingly, rather than providing a rationale for higher taxes, we show that superstar effects provide a force for lower marginal taxes, conditional on the observed distribution of earnings. Superstar effects make the earnings schedule convex, which increases the responsiveness of individual earnings to tax changes. We show that various common elasticity measures are not sufficient statistics and must be adjusted upwards in optimal tax formulas. Finally, we study a comparative static that does not keep the observed earnings distribution fixed: when superstar technologies are introduced, inequality increases but we obtain a neutrality result, finding tax rates at the top unaltered. |
| Keywords: | Earnings Elasticities; Inequality; Optimal Taxation; Sufficient Statistics; Superstar Effects |
| JEL: | D3 D5 D6 D8 E6 H2 J2 J3 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10778&r=all |
| By: | Baugh, Brian (OH State University); Ben-David, Itzhak (OH State University); Park, Hoonsuk (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | Online retailers have gained a total price advantage over brick-and-mortar retailers since the formers generally are not required to collect sales tax. Recently, several states have implemented laws requiring that Amazon collect sales tax during checkout. Using transaction-level data, we document that households living in these states reduce Amazon purchases by 11%, implying an elasticity of -1.5. The effect is more pronounced for large purchases (e.g., >= $250), for which we estimate a reduction of 25% in purchases and an elasticity of -3.5. We find some weak evidence of substitution of the lost purchases towards other online and brick-and-mortar retailers. |
| JEL: | D12 D40 L51 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-05&r=all |
| By: | Céline Antonin (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Christophe Blot (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Sabine Le Bayon (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Danielle Schweisguth (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Après six trimestres de baisse, la zone euro a renoué avec une croissance positive au deuxième trimestre 2013, le PIB progressant de 0,3 %. À l'exception du secteur de la construction, les enquêtes de conjoncture sont mieux orientées, confirmant le retour d'une croissance positive dans les prochains trimestres sur l'ensemble de la zone. La confiance des marchés est revenue, comme en témoigne la poursuite de la baisse des taux souverains en Espagne en Italie. Un mouvement de convergence semble d'ailleurs amorcé puisque dans le même temps les taux sur la dette souveraine allemande et française ont augmenté. Les risques de crise de liquidité dans la zone euro semblent aussi s'atténuer. Le guichet de la BCE reste ouvert et les demandes de refinancement diminuent progressivement. La crainte d'un éclatement de la zone euro étant écartée, les principales menaces qui pourraient contrarier le retour de la croissance dans la zone euro résident dans la poursuite de l'ajustement budgétaire. Pour autant, il est encore prématuré d'affirmer que la zone euro est sortie de la récession. La poursuite, même à un moindre rythme, de la consolidation conjuguée aux pressions à la baisse des salaires en lien avec le niveau élevé du chômage pèsera sur le pouvoir d'achat des ménages dans la plupart des pays. Il ne devrait donc pas y avoir de reprise par la consommation, en dehors du cas particulier de l'Allemagne. La croissance sera insuffisante pour combler l'écart de croissance qui s'est creusé et réduire les divergences qui sont apparues dans la zone euro. Les pressions déflationnistes dans les pays du sud de l'Europe restent fortes, ce qui contraint le pouvoir d'achat et la consommation des ménages, en particulier les agents les plus endettés qui doivent faire face à leurs échéances. Dans ces conditions, la zone euro restera écartelée entre une fraction de pays où la crise laisse peu de traces et une autre durablement affaiblie économiquement, financièrement et socialement. |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01025425&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Adam Swinburn |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Georgia's experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | Georgia, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:5b75b166d5d341b78da2e3901c863aed&r=all |
| By: | Brown, J. David (U.S. Census Bureau); Earle, John S. (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze linked databases on all Small Business Administration (SBA) loans, on all SBA lenders, and on all U.S. employers to estimate the effects of financial access on employment growth. Our methods combine regressions with matching on firm age, size, industry, year, and employment history, and with instrumental variables capturing ease of access to SBA lenders. The estimation results imply an increase of 3-4 jobs for each million dollars of loans, suggesting that credit constraints impede small business growth prior to loan receipt. We also investigate the variation in estimated employment effects for the SBA 504 versus 7(a) programs, and with respect to the business cycle, local credit conditions, and within-county versus non-SBA county-industry control firms. Finally, for loans issued over the 1992-2007 period, we estimate total job creation of 1.0-2.1 million and the government's cost per job of $8,200-$18,000 measured five years after the loan year. |
| Keywords: | finance, financial access, loans, employment, growth, small business administration, small business finance |
| JEL: | D04 G21 G28 H32 H81 J23 L53 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9267&r=all |
| By: | Sébastien Gand (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Elvira Périac (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Alors que les problématiques liées à la perte d'autonomie de personnes âgées occupent une place aujourd'hui reconnue dans l'espace des politiques publiques de santé, leur traitement reste insuffisant malgré de réelles avancées, surtout au regard du vieillissement des populations en cours et croissant jusqu'en 2050. Cette communication se centre sur la problématique des proches aidants de personnes âgées dépendantes, souvent leur conjoint ou enfant. Celle-ci a émergé depuis les années 1980 et s'est légitimée progressivement jusqu'à voir de nombreuses actions spécifiquement dédiées à cette population. Mais malgré ces efforts, le constat d'un manque d'efficacité des moyens déployés fait consensus (Ministère des solidarités et de la cohésion sociale, 2011; Joël, 2013). Partant de ce constat, qui a été étayé empiriquement dans une recherche précédente (Gand, Hénaut et al., 2012), nous proposons de reprendre cette problématique à travers le cadre théorique de la gouvernance territoriale qui a pour objet d'étudier la manière dont des collectifs multi-acteurs se constituent et coopérent sur un territoire autour d'objectifs communs (Chia, Torre et al., 2008). Nous focalisons notre contribution sur la manière dont une instrumentation spécifique peut contribuer à construire un collectif et les apprentissages nécessaires à la création d'une nouvelle forme d'action collective (Hatchuel et Weil, 1992; Vitry et Chia, 2014). Le plan de la communication est le suivant : après avoir introduit l'aide aux proches aidants et ses difficultés, nous présentons la littérature gouvernance et réseau dans le champ de l'action publique puis plus spécifiquement l'intérêt de raisonner à partir de la notion de gouvernance territoriale et le besoin d'enrichir l'instrumentation pour penser la politique d'aide aux aidants. Dans un troisième temps, nous présentons la méthodologie générale avant de développer la méthode de cartographie actionnable que nous avons développée. Nous en discutons l'intérêt comme élément de mise en dispositif de la gouvernance territoriale de l'aide aux aidants avant de conclure. |
| Date: | 2015–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01148610&r=all |
| By: | L. C. G. Rogers |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to devise numerical methods for dealing with very high-dimensional Bermudan-style derivatives. For such problems, we quickly see that we can at best hope for price bounds, and we can only use a simulation approach. We use the approach of Barraquand & Martineau which proposes that the reward process should be treated as if it were Markovian, and then uses this to generate a stopping rule and hence a lower bound on the price. Using the dual approach introduced by Rogers, and Haugh & Kogan, this approximate Markov process leads us to hedging strategies, and upper bounds on the price. The methodology is generic, and is illustrated on eight examples of varying levels of difficulty. Run times are largely insensitive to dimension. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.06117&r=all |
| By: | Mynti Hossain; Grace Anglin; Embry Howell; Ashley Palmer; Vanessa Forsberg; Elena Zarabozo |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from West Virginia’s experience during the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | West Virginia, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:38cbb59915c64272be1bd2970cbb47ba&r=all |
| By: | Irene Brunetti; Davide Fiaschi |
| Abstract: | The paper proposes a novel methodology based on a non-parametric method to estimate intragenerational income mobility. We apply it to the analysis of mobility of a sample of Italian individuals (between 16 and 65 years old) from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) by the Bank of Italy in the period 1987-2010. First, the linear specification of the Markovian model is estimated removing the assumption of no serial correlation in the error term suggesting a low level of income mobility. Second, a non-linear specification of Markovian model is estimated providing both "local" and global measures of income mobility. Income mobility appears to be low; in particular it reaches a minimum in the middle of income distribution and maximum values at the extreme bounds, with an income elasticity ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 in the relevant range of income (0.5-2). Moreover, from 1987-1998 to 2000-2010 income mobility has increased over time, in particular in the middle of distribution. |
| Keywords: | Relative Income Mobility, Mobility Indexes, Markov Chain, Non-parametric Estimate. |
| JEL: | C14 J60 J62 |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2015/204&r=all |
| By: | Karlan, Dean (Yale University and Innovations for Poverty Action); Linden, Leigh (University of TX and Innovations for Poverty Action) |
| Abstract: | Commitment devices offer an opportunity to restrict future choices. However, if severe restrictions deter participation, weaker restrictions may be a more effective means of changing behavior. We test this using a school-based commitment savings device for educational expenses in Uganda. We compare an account fully-committed to educational expenses to an account in which savings are available for cash withdrawal but intended for educational expenses. The weaker commitment generates increased savings in the program accounts and when combined with a parent outreach program, higher expenditures on educational supplies. It also increases scores on an exam covering language and math skills by 0.14 standard deviations. We find no effect for the fully-committed account, and we find no effect for either account on attendance, enrollment, or non-cognitive skills. |
| JEL: | D12 D91 I21 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:129&r=all |
| By: | Fischer, Greg (London School of Economics and Political Science); Karlan, Dean (Yale University and Innovations for Poverty Action); McConnell, Margaret (Harvard University); Raffler, Pia (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | In a field experiment in Uganda, we find that demand after a free distribution of three health products is lower than after a sale distribution. This contrasts with work on insecticide-treated bed nets, highlighting the importance of product characteristics in determining pricing policy. We put forward a model to illustrate the potential tension between two important factors, learning and anchoring, and then test this model with three products selected specifically for their variation in the scope for learning. We find the rank order of shifts in demand matches with the theoretical prediction, although the differences are not statistically significant. |
| JEL: | D11 D12 D83 I11 I18 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:133&r=all |
| By: | Mehdad, Ehsan (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Kleijnen, J.P.C. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) is a popular method that searches sequentially for the global optimum of a simulated system. EGO treats the simulation model as a black-box, and balances local and global searches. In deterministic simulation, EGO uses ordinary Kriging (OK), which is a special case of universal Kriging (UK). In our EGO variant we use intrinsic Kriging (IK), which eliminates the need to estimate the parameters that quantify the trend in UK. In random simulation, EGO uses stochastic Kriging (SK), but we use stochastic IK (SIK). Moreover, in random simulation, EGO needs to select the number of replications per simulated input combination, accounting for the heteroscedastic variances of the simulation outputs. A popular selection method uses optimal computer budget allocation (OCBA), which allocates the available total number of replications over simulated combinations. We derive a new allocation algorithm. We perform several numerical experiments with deterministic simulations and random simulations. These experiments suggest that (1) in deterministic simulations, EGO with IK outperforms classic EGO; (2) in random simulations, EGO with SIK and our allocation rule does not differ significantly from EGO with SK combined with the OCBA allocation rule. |
| Keywords: | global optimization; Gaussian process; Kriging; intrinsic Krgigin; metamodel |
| JEL: | C0 C1 C9 C15 C44 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:5e785713-146c-4e5b-b671-f7eb4a8b7a41&r=all |
| By: | Reichardt, Kristin; Rogge, Karoline S.; Negro, Simona |
| Abstract: | While empirical studies on technological innovation systems (TIS) usually focus on policy instruments and their suitability for curing identified weaknesses of such emerging systems, the underlying policy processes and their effects on these systems have been largely disregarded. We address this gap by exploring two crucial policy-making processes and their effects on the functioning and performance of the offshore wind TIS in Germany. Our findings indicate important positive and negative impacts of these processes on the TIS. For example, tardy reactiveness in policy action negatively influenced entrepreneurial activities, knowledge development and finally technology diffusion, whereas the incremental nature of the studied policy processes was necessary to improve TIS performance after it had been hampered by systemic problems. Based on our findings we derive policy implications and avenues for future research. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s22015&r=all |
| By: | Daouli, Joan; Demoussis, Michael; Giannakopoulos, Nicholas; Lambropoulou, Nikolitsa |
| Abstract: | We investigate the unemployment inflows and outflows using micro-data from the Greek Labour Force Survey (1998-2013). Focusing on the post-2008 recessionary period, aggregate unemployment decompositions show that both, inflow and outflow rates affect unemployment variations. In particular, early in the recession the inflow rate dominates while later the outflow rate takes over. These findings remain unaltered when unemployment persistence and low transition rates are taken into account. Furthermore, applying multinomial regression techniques we find that the ins and outs of unemployment vary with individual-specific heterogeneity (gender, age, education, etc.). This heterogeneity however exhibits a differentiated impact in the pre- and post-2008 periods. Overall, the design of an effective employment policy in Greece needs to take into consideration the exceptionally low job finding rate (10%) and its composition in the ongoing labour market crisis. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, worker flows, transition probabilities, unemployment decomposition |
| JEL: | C5 C50 E32 J6 |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66299&r=all |
| By: | Iván Werning |
| Abstract: | I study aggregate consumption dynamics under incomplete markets, focusing on the relationship between consumption and the path for interest rates. I first provide a general aggregation result under extreme illiquidity (no borrowing and no outside assets), deriving a generalized Euler relation involving the real interest rate, current and future aggregate consumption. This provides a tractable way of incorporating incomplete markets in macroeconomic models, dealing only with aggregates. Although this relation does not necessarily coincide with the standard representative-agent Euler equation, I show that it does for an important benchmark specification. When this is the case, idiosyncratic uncertainty and incomplete markets leave their imprint by affecting the discount factor in this representation, but the sensitivity of consumption to current and future interest rates is unaffected. An immediate corollary is that “forward guidance” (lower future interest rates) is as powerful as in representative agent models. I show that the same representation holds with positive liquidity (borrowing and outside assets) when utility is logarithmic. I show that away from these benchmark cases, consumption is likely to become more sensitive to interest rate, and especially future interest rates. Finally, I apply my approach to a real business cycle economy, providing an exact analytical aggregation result that complements existing numerical results. |
| JEL: | D52 E0 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21448&r=all |
| By: | Bronwyn Howell |
| Abstract: | In policy debates, ‘the market’ and ‘the government’ are pitted against each other almost inevitably as diametrically opposed means of mediating economic transactions. There must be only one ‘winner’, to whom all the spoils (or at least the credit for generating them) accrue. But, as Bronwyn Howell points out, there’s another way of viewing this. |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380006&r=all |
| By: | Kyle Bagwell; Robert W. Staiger; Ali Yurukoglu |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines recently declassified data from the GATT/WTO on tariff bargaining. We document eight stylized facts about these interconnected high-stakes international negotiations. We use detailed product-level offer and counteroffer data to examine several questions about trade policy, including whether preferential tariffs were a stumbling block towards liberalization, and whether the relaxation of bilateral reciprocity to multilateral reciprocity aided liberalization. We organize the empirical analysis around a theoretical model of multi-party trade negotiations motivated by the terms-of-trade theory and respecting the institutional features of most-favored-nation status and reciprocity. |
| JEL: | C78 D02 F13 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21488&r=all |
| By: | Gill,Indermit S.; Kharas,Homi |
| Abstract: | Since we introduced the term ?middle-income trap? in 2006, it has become popular among policy makers and researchers. In May 2015, a search of Google Scholar returned more than 3,000 articles including the term and about 300 articles with the term in the title. This paper provides a (non-exhaustive) survey of this literature. The paper then discusses what, in retrospect, we missed when we coined the term. Today, based on developments in East Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe during the past decade, we would have paid more attention to demographic factors, entrepreneurship, and external institutional anchors. We would also make it clearer that to us, the term was as much the absence of a satisfactory theory that could inform development policy in middle-income economies as the articulation of a development phenomenon. Three-quarters of the people in the world now live in middle-income economies, but economists have yet to provide a reliable theory of growth to help policy makers navigate the transition from middle- to high-income status. Hybrids of the Solow-Swan and Lucas-Romer models are not unhelpful, but they are poor substitutes for a well-constructed growth framework. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Labor Policies,Inequality,Climate Change Economics |
| Date: | 2015–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7403&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Ian Hill; Ashley Palmer; Margo Wilkinson; Arnav Shah |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Colorado’s experience in the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | Colorado, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:3786d1e31053456e9e62ae70484567ee&r=all |
| By: | Andreas Fritz; Michael Stein; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the role of heterogeneous agents in oil markets and tests tales of speculators in oil price formation. Results obtained from using a non-linear heterogeneous agent model suggest that oil market prices are driven by different groups of speculators, namely fundamentalists, chartists and the newly introduced contrarians. The latter enable us to disentangle stabilizing effects previously attributed solely to fundamentalists, and they are on average the most dominating group, whereas chartists exacerbate the huge price swings in 1990, 2008 and 2011. We also show how sensitive the model outcomes are to the specification of the fundamental value, what has strong economic implications. |
| Keywords: | Energy |
| JEL: | Q40 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:1505&r=all |
| By: | Francesco Lautizi (DEF, Università di Roma "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | We propose an estimator of the Covariance Matrix (SWSE) of a large number of assets. This estimator improves the SimilarityWeighted Estimator (SWE) introduced in Munnix et al. (2014), by combining it with the shrinkage estimator of the sample covariance matrix towards the market factor developed by Ledoit and Wolf (2003). We compare the performance of our estimator to some alternatives already available form the literature and the industry. For this purpose we analyse both statistical and economic measures associated to the Global Minimum Variance (GMV) Portfolio, composed by the stocks included in the S&P 500 index and computed using the different estimators considered in our comparison. |
| Date: | 2015–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:353&r=all |
| By: | Baert, Stijn (Ghent University); Norga, Jennifer (Ghent University); Thuy, Yannick (Ghent University); Van Hecke, Marieke (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | This study presents a new field experimental approach for measuring age discrimination in hiring. In addition to the classical approach in which candidates' ages are randomly assigned within pairs of fictitious resumes that are sent to real vacancies, we randomly assign activities undertaken by the older candidates during their additional life years between these pairs. When applying this design to the Belgium case, we find that age discrimination is fundamentally heterogeneous by older candidates' career pattern. Older age affects call-back only (negatively) in case older candidates were inactive or employed in an out-of-field job during their additional post-educational years. |
| Keywords: | age discrimination, design of experiments, field experiments, difference in post-educational years problem, ageing, hiring discrimination |
| JEL: | C90 C93 J14 J71 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9289&r=all |
| By: | Hermalin, Benjamin E. (University of CA, Berkeley); Weisbach, Michael S. (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | A manager's shareholders, board of directors, and potential future employers are continually assessing his ability. A rich literature has documented that this insight has profound implications for corporate governance because assessment generates incentives (good and bad), introduces assorted risks, and affects the various battles that rage among the relevant actors for corporate control. Consequently, assessment (or learning) is a key perspective from which to study, evaluate, and possibly even regulate corporate governance. Moreover, because learning is a behavior notoriously subject to systematic biases, this perspective is a natural avenue through which to introduce behavioral and psychological insights into the study of corporate governance. |
| JEL: | D81 D83 G34 M12 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-04&r=all |
| By: | Aurelio Bruzzo |
| Abstract: | Researchers of the various social science involved, including of course Demography, have so far failed to indicate with certainty what is, from the viewpoint of economic theory, the correlation between the trend of in a given geographical area resident population and its socio-economic development. However, the debate on the relationship between population and development is still very relevant, especially from a political perspective, in general, and from they of economic policy, in particular, and this for the simple reason that the size, composition, and the quality level of the population is in any case a decisive factor for the development chances of any region. From what has just been observed, an opportunity emerges for more specifically reconsidering this issue on a territorial scope, constituted by the province of Ferrara, with reference to two periods of more than 10 years, which – being in between the Second World War and the present day – make it possible to reconstruct for this part of Emilia-Romagna some of the important stages of its latest evolution. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Trend; Economic Development; Locally Relationship |
| JEL: | J11 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udf:wpaper:2015114&r=all |
| By: | Rainer Schulz; Martin Wersing; ; |
| Abstract: | We show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We ex- plain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House prices aggregate the dispersed knowl- edge of the future oil price that exists in the city. We obtain similar empirical evidence for Houston, another city dominated by the oil in- dustry. Consistent with our explanation, we nd that house prices from economically more diversied areas in the UK and the US do not improve oil price forecasts. |
| Keywords: | oil price forecasting, house prices, knowledge spillover |
| JEL: | C53 E32 Q47 R31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-041&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus , via Mersin 10, Turkey; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Charl Jooste (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | We compare inflation forecasts of a vector fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (VARFIMA) model against standard forecasting models. U.S. inflation forecasts improve when controlling for persistence and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Importantly, the VARFIMA model, comprising of inflation and EPU, outperforms commonly used inflation forecast models. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; long-range dependency; economic policy uncertainty; |
| JEL: | C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-12.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Florence Allard-Poesi (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée) |
| Abstract: | La lecture des recherches qualitatives en management dans les journaux scientifiques européens révèle une grande variété de méthodes de collecte (i.e. entretien clinique, Harding, 2008 ; retranscription de réunion, Whittle et al., 2014 ; observation des pratiques des acteurs, Jarzabkowski, Spee, et Smets, 2013) et d’analyse des données (i.e. ethnométhodologie, Samra-Fredericks, 2003 ; et analyse conversationnelle, Samra-Fredericks, 2005 ; analyse narrative et ante-narrative, Boje, 2001 ; Whittle et Mueller, 2011). Loin de se confondre aux seules études de cas -terme au demeurant trompeur tant il renvoie à des postures différentes, on le verra-, ces recherches relèvent en outre de design aussi divers que l’ethnographie (Rouleau, 2005) ou la recherche-action participative (Whittle et al., 2014). Cette variété des approches peut être éclairée par les critiques et débats soulevés par ce qui est souvent présentée comme « la voie royale » de la recherche qualitative dans les supports de publication académiques nord-américains. Trois ensembles de critiques portant sur la collecte des données, les méthodes d’analyse puis le design de recherche de cette approche sont dans un premier temps rappelés. Ces critiques ont en effet suscité des interrogations portant sur le statut des données de discours collectées, sur les discours produits par le chercheur lui-même, et sur son rôle et sa place dans le processus de recherche. Les réflexions suscitées par ces trois ensembles de questions et leurs incidences sur les orientations méthodologiques dans la recherche en management sont ensuite présentées comme autant de tournants (tournants discursif, critique et réflexif) et chemins de traverse. Nous concluons ce panorama nécessairement parcellaire en discutant certaines des difficultés auxquels la recherche qualitative est aujourd’hui confrontée. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01111378&r=all |
| By: | Niels Erik Kaaber Rasmussen; Marianne Frank Hansen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM); Peter Stephensen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM) |
| Abstract: | Determining transition probabilities is a vital part of dynamic microsimulation models. Modelling individual behaviour by a large number of covariates reduces the number of observations with identical characteristics. This challenges determination of the response structure. Data mining using conditional inference trees (CTREEs) is found to be a useful tool to quantify a discrete response variable conditional on multiple individual characteristics and is generally believed to provide better covariate interactions than traditional parametric discrete choice models, i.e. logit and probit models. Deriving transition probabilities from conditional inference trees is a core method used in the SMILE microsimulation model forecasting household demand for dwellings. The properties of CTREEs are investigated through an empirical application aiming to describe the household decision of moving from a number of covariates representing various demographic and dwelling characteristics. Using recursive binary partitioning, decision trees group individuals’ responses according to a selected number of conditioning covariates. Recursively splitting the population by characteristics results in smaller groups consisting of individuals with identical behaviour. Classification is induced by recognized statistical procedures evaluating heterogeneity and the number of observations within the group exposed to a potential split. If a split is statistically validated, binary partitioning results in two new tree nodes, each of which potentially can split further after the next evaluation. The recursion stops when indicated by the statistical test procedures. Nodes caused by the final split are called terminal nodes. The final tree is characterized by a minimum of variation between observations within a terminal node and maximum variation across terminal nodes. For each terminal node a transitional probability is calculated and used to describe the response of individuals with the same covariate structure as characterizing the given terminal node. That is, if a terminal node consists of single males aged 50 and above living in rental housing, individuals with such characteristics are assumed to behave identically with respect to moving when transitioning from one state to another. |
| Keywords: | conditional inference tree, CTREE, dynamic microsimulation, modelling transition probability |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201302&r=all |
| By: | Seth Gershenson (American University); Stephen B. Holt (American Un iversity); Nicholas Papageorge (Johns Hopkins University) |
| Abstract: | Teachers are an important source of information for traditionally disadvantaged students. However, little is known about how teachers form expectations and whether they are systematically biased. We investigate whether student-teacher demographic mismatch affects high school teachers' expectations for students' educational attainment. Using a student fixed effects strategy that exploits expectations data from two teachers per student, we find that non-black teachers of black students have significantly lower expectations than do black teachers. These effects are larger for black male students and math teachers. Our findings add to a growing literature on the role of limited information in perpetuating educational attainment gaps. |
| Keywords: | Educational Attainment; Expectations; Stigmatization; Mismatch |
| JEL: | I24 D84 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:15-231&r=all |
| By: | Joe Cullen (Arcola Research); Clare Cullen (Arcola Research); Emma Hamilton (Arcola Research); Greg Holloway (Arcola Research); Gigliola Paviotti (Arcola Research); Veronique Maes (Arcola Research) |
| Abstract: | This Report presents the final results of the study ‘ICT-enabled social innovation services for active inclusion of young people’ (IESI-Youth) which has been commissioned by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) and implemented by Arcola Research in 2014. The overall objective of the study was to review the state of the art in the domain of active inclusion services for young people, with a specific focus on how ICTs can support active inclusion of disadvantaged youth to strengthen their skills and capacities and support them to participate fully in employment and social life. The study was conducted as preparatory activity contributing to the development of the broader research project on 'ICT enabled Social Innovation in support of the Implementation of the Social Investment Package (IESI) being implemented by JRC-IPTS in collaboration with DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (DG EMPL). |
| Keywords: | inclusion, young people, ICT, innovation |
| JEL: | I15 I24 I30 O20 O30 O31 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc95506&r=all |
| By: | Merrill, Craig B. (Brigham Young Unviersity and Wharton Financial Institutions Center, University of PA); Nadauld, Taylor (Brigham Young University); Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels); Sherlund, Shane M. (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | Many observers have argued that the fall in RMBS prices during the crisis was partly caused by fire sales. We provide an explanation for why financial institutions may have engaged in fire sales using a unique dataset of RMBS transactions for insurance companies. We show that risk-sensitive capital requirements and mark-to-market accounting can jointly create incentives for capital-constrained financial institutions to engage in fire sales of stressed securities because the increased risk can make it too expensive to hold such securities. Further, we find that, in general, RMBS prices behaved as would be expected in the presence of fire sales. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G22 G23 M41 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-09&r=all |
| By: | Kuzmin, Evgeny A.; Berdyugina, Oksana N.; Karkh, Dmitri A. |
| Abstract: | Stimuli for the sustainable economic development are mainly kept owing to a balanced sectoral structure. An ideal ratio between the transformation (production) and transaction components helps to smooth shocks from crises of institutional reforms. A nature of institutional reforms has led to a conclusion of an evolutionary expansion both in terms of a number of institutions themselves (horizontal supplement), and the complexity in elaborating rules and regulations for the proper behaviour (vertical supplement). These and other causes logically lead to strengthening in the transaction sector. In terms of a missing conventional agreement on an evaluation of the transaction sector in economy, the paper has presented a review and the authors have systematized some typical errors and inconsistencies in approaches. In opposition to the "cost-based" evaluation method by J. Wallis and D. North, the authors have presented an available alternative method to measure the value of the transaction sector using "cost" parameters. The research has shown the efficiency of the used "cost" approach to the evaluation that eliminates significant errors in the recalculation of the volume of the transaction sector in the economy. |
| Keywords: | Transaction costs, transaction sector, institutional reforms, sectoral structure of economy |
| JEL: | B25 O17 O41 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66168&r=all |
| By: | Toby Daglish |
| Abstract: | ISCR research is based on three areas: banking and finance, network industries (electricity and telecommunications), and resource management. Within these areas, we’re interested in how markets function, how markets are regulated, how firms and industries structure themselves, and how organisations govern themselves. |
| Date: | 2014–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcrt:380100&r=all |
| By: | Bakshi, Gurdip (University of MD); Chabi-Yo, Fousseni (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | Under the setting that stochastic discount factors (SDFs) jointly price a vector of returns, this paper features entropy-based restrictions on SDFs, and its correlated multiplicative components, to evaluate asset pricing models. Specifically, our entropy bound on the square of the SDFs is intended to capture the time-variation in the conditional volatility of the log SDF as well as distributional non-normalities. Each entropy bound can be inferred from the mean and the variance-covariance matrix of the vector of asset returns. Extending extant treatments, we develop entropy codependence measures and our bounds generalize to multi-period SDFs. Our approach offer ways to improve model performance. |
| JEL: | C51 C52 G12 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-07&r=all |
| By: | Creina Day |
| Abstract: | Young households in Hong Kong face particularly steep increases in house prices and low fertility despite low gender wage gaps. The model of fertility and housing in this paper explains why fertility decline need not reverse as female wages rise relative to male wages where housing land is scarce. For given house prices, demand for children may rise with female relative wages if housing comprises a sufficiently large share of childrearing. If the user cost of housing falls with rising house prices then fertility also rises. For endogenous house prices, however, growth in wages and a burgeoning working age population raises the market price of housing. In turn, fertility no longer rises with female relative wages. The analysis provides a novel mechanism whereby high population support ratios depress fertility and the results fit recent evidence that house prices affect fertility. |
| Keywords: | fertility, housing price, gender wages, working age population |
| JEL: | J10 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2015-34&r=all |
| By: | KINOSHITA Yuko; GUO Fang |
| Abstract: | Both Japan and Korea are trying to boost female labor force participation (FLFP) as they face the challenges of a rapidly aging population. Though FLFP has generally been on a rising trend, the female labor force in both countries is skewed towards non-regular employment despite women's high education levels. This paper empirically examines what helps Japan and Korea to increase FLFP by type (i.e., regular vs. non-regular employment), using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. In so doing, we compare these two Asian countries with two Nordic countries: Norway and Finland. The main findings are: (i) child cash allowances tend to reduce the proportion of regular female employment in Japan and Korea, (ii) the persistent gender wage gap encourages more non-regular employment, (iii) a greater proportion of regular female employment is associated with higher fertility, and (iv) there is a need for more public spending on childcare for ages 6-11 in Japan and Korea to help women continue to work. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:15102&r=all |
| By: | Tanaka, Kiyoyasu |
| Abstract: | With a newly constructed dataset on foreign firms in Japan for the period 1995-2008 from firm-level surveys, this paper estimates the impact of foreign firms on industrial productivity at the regional level. A Bayesian-model averaging approach is taken to account for model uncertainty resulting from various linkages between foreign firms and domestic industries. The results show that the foreign firms may contribute to industrial efficiency directly through their above-average productivity and indirectly through positive spillovers in intra-industry and local backward linkages. Forward linkages with foreign firms may have a negative impact on industrial productivity. However, these impacts depend on the nationality and entry mode of foreign investors. Aggregating foreign firms may mask their distinctive impacts on productivity. |
| Keywords: | Japan, Foreign Affiliated Firm, Productivity, Econometric Model, Foreign Firm, Industrial Productivity, Bayesian Model Averaging |
| JEL: | C11 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper533&r=all |
| By: | Roswenzweig, Mark R. (Yale University); Udry, Christopher (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect. |
| JEL: | J20 O12 O13 O15 Q12 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:128&r=all |
| By: | Gaurab Aryal; Maria F. Gabrielli |
| Abstract: | Collusion adversely affects procurement cost and efficiency. It is hard to quantify just how prevalent collusion is, but it's safe to assume that there's a lot of collusion going on. Detecting collusion from (just) bid data is hard so the extent of the damages can never be known. A natural response would have been to use collusion-proof procurement, yet, such auctions are hardly used. Why? Using California highway procurements data, we estimate the extra cost of implementing a collusion-proof auction to be anywhere between 1.6% to 5%. Even after we factor in the marginal excess burden of taxes needed to finance the expenses, the cost ranges between 2.08% and 6.5%, which is too small to be the answer. Since other than cost there is no obvious answer, this shows that there is a lacuna in the empirical auction literature. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.05353&r=all |
| By: | Guillaume Plantin (ECON - Département d'économie - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Banks are subject to capital requirements because their privately optimal leverage is higher than the socially optimal one. This is in turn because banks fail to internalize all costs that their insolvency creates for agents who use their money-like liabilities to settle transactions. If banks can bypass capital regulation in an opaque shadow banking sector, it may be optimal to relax capital requirements so that liquidity dries up in the shadow banking sector. Tightening capital requirements may spur a surge in shadow banking activity that leads to an overall larger risk on the money-like liabilities of the formal and shadow banking institutions. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01168494&r=all |
| By: | Hou, Kewei (OH State University); Zhang, Yinglei (Chinese University of Hong Kong); Zhuang, Zili (Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | We use the Campbell (1991) return decomposition framework to reexamine the variation in the information content of earnings between profit firms and loss firms and over time. We show that current earnings surprises are more strongly correlated with the discount rate news component of returns for loss firms and in the recent period. This stronger correlation offsets the positive relation between current earnings surprises and the earnings news component of returns, causing the overall earnings-return relation to be weaker for loss firms and during the recent period. Consistent with these findings, we also find that discount rate news is a more important driver of the return variation of loss firms and in the recent period. Our results highlight the importance of time-varying discount rates for understanding the information content of earnings. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 M41 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-01&r=all |
| By: | Aurelio F. Bariviera; M. T. Martin; A. Plastino; V. Vampa |
| Abstract: | According to the definition of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), contributing banks should give fair estimates of their own borrowing costs in the interbank market. Between 2007 and 2009, several banks made inappropriate submissions of LIBOR, sometimes motivated by profit-seeking from their trading positions. In 2012, several newspapers' articles began to cast doubt on LIBOR integrity, leading surveillance authorities to conduct investigations on banks' behavior. Such procedures resulted in severe fines imposed to involved banks, who recognized their financial inappropriate conduct. In this paper, we uncover such unfair behavior by using a forecasting method based on the Maximum Entropy principle. Our results are robust against changes in parameter settings and could be of great help for market surveillance. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04512&r=all |
| By: | Banerjee, Panchali (Department of Economics, Jadavpur University); Mukherjee, Vivekananda (Department of Economics, Jadavpur University) |
| Abstract: | The paper theoretically explores the impact of introducing bureaucratic competition on corruption. For this purpose it considers three different measures of corruption such as corruption incidence (CI), relative corruption incidence (CRI) and corruption rents (CR) in two different types of economies namely corruption-tolerant economies and corruption-reliant economies. As it compares both intensive margin (i.e. the magnitude of bribe) and extensive margin (i.e. the number of bribe incident) of corruption with and without bureaucratic competition, it turns out that as traditionally perceived the introduction of bureaucratic corruption does not necessarily reduce corruption in an economy. The outcome depends on the type of the economy that has been studied, the measure of corruption being used and the initial level of corruption in the economy. Among the counterintuitive results, we find that in a corruption-tolerant economy going by the CI measure, corruption is always higher under competitive regime compared to monopoly regime. The same holds true if the CR measure is used in such economies with sufficiently high share of corrupt officials. In a reliant economy, if CRI measure is applied, corruption is more in competitive regime. |
| Keywords: | Corruption ; Competition ; Bureaucracy ; Red tape ; Measures of corruption ; Extortion ; Collusion |
| JEL: | D73 K42 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:15/152&r=all |
| By: | Eléonora MORGANTI (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - PRES Université Paris-Est); Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes last mile logistics for fresh food products and the food deliveries schemes to urban food outlets, i.e. corporate retail chains, independent retailers and hotel, restaurants and catering (Ho.Re.Ca.) sector. We present two concepts: that of food hub and that of last food mils, as well as an analysis framework to understand food last mile distribution. To illustrate it, two experiences of urban food distribution are compared to a reference situation using the proposed framework. |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse la logistique du dernier kilomètre pour les produits frais, dans les différents secteurs impliqués, i.e. grande distribution organisée, commerces indépendants et secteur de la restauration. Nous présentons deux concepts : celui du pole alimentaire et celui du dernier kilomètre alimentaire, ainsi qu'un cadre d'analyse pour comprendre la distribution alimentaire en ville. Pour l'illustrer, deux expériences de logistique alimentaire urbaine sont comparés à une situation de référence, en utilisant la méthode proposée. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00986647&r=all |
| By: | Eric N. Kéré (CERDI-CNRS, Université d’Auvergne, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France); Serge Garcia (Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière, INRA - AgroParisTech); Arnaud Dragicevic (Chaire Forêts pour Demain, AgroParisTech-Office National des Forêts) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of the intensity of spatial interactions on the behavior of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners and, by the ripple effect, its impact on the decisions to produce timber. We model the spatial interactions in form of a twostage game. We find that when timber harvesting dominates the production of amenities, neighbors’ decisions act as strategic complements. We then prove the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium and find that it reflects the magnitude of spatial correlations. Our econometric analysis suggests that the decisions on harvesting depend on the decisions descried in the neighborhood. In consequence, the policies aimed at increasing the timber harvesting could benefit from the spillover effect. Finally, our work confirms that NIPF owners make a tradeoff between timber harvesting and forest amenities production. |
| Keywords: | Timber harvesting; Forest amenities; Spatial interactions; Sample selection |
| JEL: | C61 C63 C81 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lef:wpaper:2015-08&r=all |
| By: | Stickel, Maureen (University of WI); Deller, Steven (University of WI) |
| Abstract: | Development of the local food sector has become a popular strategy employed by a range of communities in the hopes of achieving sustainable and equitable economic growth and development. Local foods describes a range of economic activities such as farmers markets, community supported agriculture engagements, urban gardening, food hubs, and intermediated marketing channels. Despite its growing importance in the policy arena, the presumptions of the local food movement remain largely untested. This literature review provides critical analysis of the current research on local food networks. A review of current work reveals that current research on local food lacks strong theoretical grounding and quantitative rigor. As community development practitioners and planners play an important role in food system design, organization, and policy, it is important for practitioners to distinguish between objective, research-based information and speculative, advocacy-oriented analysis. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:wisagr:576&r=all |
| By: | Brian Warrington (Independent Expert (Valletta, Malta)) |
| Abstract: | The Country Report offers an analysis of the R&I system in Malta for 2014, including relevant policies and funding, with particular focus on topics critical for two EU policies: the European Research Area and the Innovation Union. The report was prepared according to a set of guidelines for collecting and analysing a range of materials, including policy documents, statistics, evaluation reports, websites etc. The report identifies the structural challenges of the Maltese research and innovation system and assesses the match between the national priorities and those challenges, highlighting the latest policy developments, their dynamics and impact in the overall national context. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Malta |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc96367&r=all |
| By: | Pelenc, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | In twenty-five years, sustainable development has not delivered the expected outcomes in terms of structural and institutional changes as well as scientific changes. Regarding scientific changes, since the first introduction of the concept of sustainable development by the Brundtland commission in 1987, new scientific fields of interdisciplinary reasearch in social sciences have emerged producing new conceptual tools, proposing new methodologies and asserting certain ethical principles. From the one hand, the thesis is interested in the field of Human Development which is structured around the work of Amartya Sen (the Capability Approach) and Manfred Max-Neef (the Fundamental Needs approach). On the other hand, the thesis is interested in the field of Ecological Economics from which emerges a strong conception of sustainability as well as the concepts of ecosystem functions and services. The thesis aims to establish a link between these two fields of research to shift from sustainable development, a relatively ambiguous concept, to responsible human development clearly rooted in strong sustainability and social justice. This articulation is carried out in a transdisciplinary perspective. In the first place, this articulation enables to provide a sound conceptual framework that could help to strengthen the epistemology of geography for studying Nature-Society interactions. In addition, this articulation could help to promote a responsible land planning. This new conceptual framework is tested in two peri-urban biosphere reserves in France (Biosphere Reserve Fontainebleau -Gâtinais ) and Chile (Biosphere Reserve La Campana - Peñuelas). |
| Keywords: | sustainable development; human development; ecological economics; capability approach; ecosystem services; land use planning |
| JEL: | Q01 Q57 |
| Date: | 2014–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56094&r=all |
| By: | Eraslan, Hulya (Rice University); Mylovanov, Tymofiy (University of Pittsburgh); Yilmaz, Bilge (University of PA) |
| Abstract: | We consider negotiations among the claimants of a bankrupt firm in which claimants have private information about various operational restructuring alternatives, and can communicate prior to a proposal. Our setup differs from typical bargaining games with incomplete information in two ways. First, the proposals can be made using securities. Second, the negotiations are over two interdependent issues: what to do with the firm and who gets what. In line with Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings we first analyze the case in which both issues are negotiated simultaneously. We show that simultaneous negotiation leads to efficient operational restructuring. Moreover, any efficient equilibrium requires that the original senior claimants receive senior securities of the reorganized firm. Next, we analyze the cases in which the two issues are negotiated sequentially. If the first issue is what to do with the firm, then efficient operational restructuring is not possible. In contrast, if the first issue is who gets what, then sequential negotiation is efficient. In comparison to simultaneous negotiation, efficient sequential negotiation may result in junior claimant capturing a larger surplus. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-029&r=all |
| By: | Muravchenko, Viktor |
| Abstract: | In article is considered conditions and an order of passing of municipal service in subjects of the Russian Federation. The order of receipt and passing of municipal service which is defined by the charter of municipality according to laws of the subject of the Russian Federation is specified, including also the legislation of the Russian Federation on work. |
| Keywords: | municipal service, municipal employee, municipal position, powers, public service, certification, competition, requirements. |
| JEL: | K23 K30 R58 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66054&r=all |
| By: | Meenagh, David (Cardiff Business School); Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Wickens, Michael (Cardiff Business School); Xu, Yongdeng |
| Abstract: | Indirect Inference has been found to have much greater power than the Likelihood Ratio in small samples for testing DSGE models. We look at asymptotic and large sample properties of these tests to understand why this might be the case. We find that the power of the LR test is undermined when reestimation of the error parameters is permitted; this offsets the effect of the falseness of structural parameters on the overall forecast error. Even when the two tests are done on a like-for-like basis Indirect Inference has more power because it uses the distribution restricted by the DSGE model being tested. |
| Keywords: | Indirect Inference; Likelihood Ratio; DSGE model; structural parameters; error processes |
| JEL: | C12 C32 C52 E1 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2015/8&r=all |
| By: | Berg, Peter B. (Michigan State University); Hamman, Mary K. (University of Wisconsin, La Crosse); Piszczek, Matthew (University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh); Ruhm, Christopher J. (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | In 1996, Germany introduced the Altersteilzeit (ATZ) law, which encouraged longer working lives through partial retirement incentives. Using matched pension system and establishment survey data, we estimate changes in part-time employment and retirement after ATZ. We find the policy induced growth in part-time work for men and extended men's expected duration of employment by 1.8 years. As the policy evolved to include an abrupt retirement option, the worklife gain for men fell to 1.2 years. Among women, part-time employment grew less and employment duration changed little initially but later declined by 0.2 years when abrupt retirement became available. |
| Keywords: | partial retirement, Germany |
| JEL: | J26 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9266&r=all |
| By: | Bollen, Nicolas P. B. (Vanderbilt University); Sensoy, Berk A. (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | Limited partners (LPs) of private equity funds commit to invest with significant uncertainty regarding the timing of capital calls and payoffs and extreme restrictions on liquidity. Secondary markets have emerged which alleviate some of the associated cost. This paper develops a subjective valuation model incorporating these institutional features. Private equity values are sensitive to the discount in secondary market transactions, especially for more risk averse LPs. Model-implied breakeven returns generally exceed empirically observed returns. However, highly risk tolerant LPs may find private equity attractive at portfolio allocations observed in practice, especially if they can access above-average funds and an efficient secondary market. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-08&r=all |
| By: | UMBA, Gilles |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of the trade openness on the economic growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The empirical analysis conducted diverged on the actual effects of such measures on the behavior of macroeconomic variables of a country. Most see similar policies a catalyst for growth while others see them as detrimental to production and competitiveness. In order to grasp the different effects of trade opening, this work considers an analysis in a framework of a standard dynamic general equilibrium from Decaluwé and Al. (2010) by simulating a gradual lowering of tariffs between 2015 and 2029. The simulations conducted however reveals a net negative effect on economic growth effects of trade opening. However, this negative impact could be absorbed by continued structural reforms to improve competitiveness and diversify the economy. |
| Keywords: | Openness; economic growth; general equilibrium models |
| JEL: | D58 F15 F43 |
| Date: | 2013–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66092&r=all |
| By: | Angelucci, Manuela (University of Michigan); Prina, Silvia (Case Western Reserve University); Royer, Heather (University of California, Santa Barbara); Samek, Anya (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | How do peers influence the impact of incentives? Despite much work on incentives, little is known about the spillover effects of incentives. We investigate two mechanisms by which these effects can occur: through peers' actions and peers' incentives. In a field experiment on snack choice (grapes versus cookies), we randomize who receives incentives, the fraction of peers incentivized, and whether or not it can be observed that peers' choices are incentivized among over 1,500 children in the school lunchroom. Incentives increase the likelihood of initially choosing grapes. However, peer spillover effects can be large enough to undo these positive effects. |
| Keywords: | food choice, incentives, spillovers, field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 I1 J13 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9288&r=all |
| By: | Esa Eslami |
| Abstract: | he research described in this report provides policymakers and researchers with detailed information on state SNAP eligibility and participation over time. |
| Keywords: | elderly SNAP participation, elderly SNAP eligibility, characteristics of elderly SNAP participants, elderly SNAP participation rates |
| JEL: | I0 I1 |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:25a1f599ddc441789708acc44e077d1d&r=all |
| By: | Mark Armstrong; John Vickers |
| Abstract: | We present a tractable class of multiproduct monopoly models that involve a generalized form of homothetic preferences. This class includes CES, linear and logit demand. Within the class, profit-maximizing quantities are proportional to efficient quantities. We discuss cost-passthrough, including cases where optimal prices do not depend on other products’costs. We show how the analysis can be extended to Cournot oligopoly. Finally, we discuss optimal monopoly regulation when the firm has private information about its vector of marginal costs, and show that if the probability distribution over costs satisfies an independence property, then optimal regulation leaves relative price decisions to the firm. |
| Keywords: | Multiproduct pricing, homothetic preferences, cost passthrough, monopoly regulation, multidimensional screening. |
| JEL: | D42 D82 L12 L51 |
| Date: | 2015–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:754&r=all |
| By: | Malena Portal Boza (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California); Duniesky Feitó Madrigal (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California); (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the Phillips curve for the Cuban economy during the period 1990-2009 focusing on the economic crisis of this period derived from the fall of the socialist camp and the disappearance of the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). The results indicate that although the theory of the Phillips Curve was used in many countries to keep unemployment at low levels while high inflation was tolerated, Cuba's experience has shown that a country can have simultaneous inflation and high unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Phillips Curve, unemployment, inflation, Cuban Economy. |
| JEL: | E24 N16 P24 |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cjz:ca41cj:27&r=all |
| By: | Roland G. Fryer, Jr.; Steven D. Levitt; John A. List |
| Abstract: | This article describes a randomized field experiment in which parents were provided financial incentives to engage in behaviors designed to increase early childhood cognitive and executive function skills through a parent academy. Parents were rewarded for attendance at early childhood sessions, completing homework assignments with their children, and for their child’s demonstration of mastery on interim assessments. This intervention had large and statistically significant positive impacts on both cognitive and non-cognitive test scores of Hispanics and Whites, but no impact on Blacks. These differential outcomes across races are not attributable to differences in observable characteristics (e.g. family size, mother’s age, mother’s education) or to the intensity of engagement with the program. Children with above median (pre-treatment) non cognitive scores accrue the most benefits from treatment. |
| JEL: | I20 J01 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21477&r=all |
| By: | Amy Ellen Schwartz; Jacob Leos-Urbel; Matthew Wiswall |
| Abstract: | Holding a summer job is a rite of passage in American adolescence, a first rung towards adulthood and self-sufficiency. Summer youth employment has the potential to benefit high school students’ educational outcomes and employment trajectories, especially for low-income youth. This paper examines New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program (SYEP). SYEP provides jobs to youth ages 14-24, and due to high demand for summer jobs, allocates slots through a random lottery system. We match student-level data from the SYEP program with educational records from the NYC Department of Education, and use the random lottery to estimate the effects of SYEP participation on a number of academic outcomes, including test taking and performance. We find that SYEP participation has positive impacts on student academic outcomes, and these effects are particularly large for students who participate in SYEP multiple times. These findings suggest substantial heterogeneity in program effects, and an important avenue for policy makers to target the program to those who might benefit from it the most. |
| JEL: | I2 J24 J38 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21470&r=all |
| By: | Adam B. Jaffe; Trinh Le |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of government assistance through R&D grants on innovation output for firms in New Zealand. Using a large database that links administrative and tax data with survey data, we are able to control for large number of firm characteristics and thus minimise selection bias. We find that receipt of an R&D grant significantly increases the probability that a firm in the manufacturing and service sectors applies for a patent during 2005–2009, but no positive impact is found on the probability of applying for a trademark. Using only firms that participated in the Business Operation Survey, we find that receiving a grant almost doubles the probability that a firm introduces new goods and services to the world while its effects on process innovation and any product innovation are relatively much weaker. Moreover, there is little evidence that grant receipt has differential effects between small to medium (<50 employees) and larger firms. These findings are broadly in line with recent international evidence from Japan, Canada and Italy which found positive impacts of public R&D subsidy on patenting activity and the introduction of new products. |
| JEL: | O31 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21479&r=all |
| By: | Bruce Caldwell |
| Abstract: | The paper offers a revisionist account of certain episodes in the development of F. A. Hayek's thought. It offers a new reading of his 1937 paper, "Economics and Knowledge," that draws on unpublished lecture notes in which he articulated more fully the distinctions he made in the paper between a "pure logic of choice," or the economic calculus, and an "empirical element," which he would later call the competitive market order. Next, the paper shows that Hayek continued to try to develop his ideas about the role of the economic calculus through the 1950s and early 1960s, an effort that has been missed because it never led to any published work. Finally, the paper examines Hayek's attempt to articulate a theory of the market process, one that would be at the same level of generality as the economic calculus, in lectures he gave at the University of Virginia. He never developed a full-fledged formal theory, but his failed efforts still bore fruit in leading him to his contributions on spontaneous orders and the (verbal) theory of complex phenomena. This work anticipated contributions by others who were more technically trained. |
| Keywords: | F. A. Hayek; the economic calculus; market process; the pure logic of choice; the structure of economic theory; spontaneous orders |
| JEL: | B25 B31 B53 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:63266&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Borowczyk-Martins; Etienne Lalé |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Current Population Survey, we document that separations from full-time employment account for the bulk of the variation in involuntary part-time work, and that since the Great Recession full-time workers are at a greater risk of working part-time involuntarily than being unemployed. We quantify the effects of a higher incidence of involuntary part-time work by means of an incomplete-market search model, wherein short spells of involuntary part-time employment can have long-lasting negative effects on consumption. Our model predicts significant welfare losses under the assumption that public insurance is provided in unemployment but not in involuntary part-time work. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Involuntary part-time work, Welfare, Great Recession. |
| JEL: | E21 E32 J21 |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:15/664&r=all |
| By: | Jérôme Sgard (CERI - Centre d'études et de recherches internationales - CNRS - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La discussion des rapports entre marché et politique est le plus souvent posée dans des termes caricaturaux: à la fin, l'un est censé l'emporter sur l'autre. A moins, par exemple, qu'on interprète les problèmes de gouvernance économique globale en termes de " guerre économique " : une métaphore particulièrement stérile, qui opacifie les problèmes au lieu de les éclairer. La présente contribution cherche à reproblématiser la question en insistant notamment sur deux points : d'une part les différences riches et significatives existant entre la première mondialisation (1870-1914) et la phase actuelle (post-1990) ; de l'autre l'idée qu'aujourd'hui, l'engagement des souverains sur la scène internationale est contingente, ou optionnelle, alors qu'au plan local, leur obligation de défendre de la société et la division du travail est imparable. Les souverains agissent plus que jamais localement et sont sanctionnés par leurs citoyens et leur société civile. |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01044706&r=all |
| By: | Fulvio Castellacci (TIK Centre, University of Oslo, Norway); Jose Miguel Natera (Universidad Metropolitana, Mexico) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of the global evolution of national innovation systems. The study identifies six main dimensions, three of which are related to the techno-economic domain (innovation and technological capabilities, openness and infrastructures), while the other three refer to countries’ socio-institutional system (education, political institutions and social cohesion). The empirical analysis describes the cross-country distribution of a large number of indicators measuring these six dimensions, and how these factors have evolved during the period 1980-2008. The results point out the existence of a convergence paradox: national systems worldwide have become more similar in terms of their socio-institutional framework but increasingly more different with respect to their techno-economic pillars. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20150821&r=all |
| By: | Davig, Troy; Gürkaynak, Refet S. |
| Abstract: | No. And not only for the reason you think. In a world with multiple inefficiencies the single policy tool the central bank has control over will not undo all inefficiencies; this is well understood. We argue that the world is better characterized by multiple inefficiencies and multiple policy makers with various objectives. Asking the policy question only in terms of optimal monetary policy effectively turns the central bank into the residual claimant of all policy and gives the other policymakers a free hand in pursuing their own goals. This further worsens the tradeoffs faced by the central bank. The optimal monetary policy literature and the optimal simple rules often labeled flexible inflation targeting assign all of the cyclical policymaking duties to central banks. This distorts the policy discussion and narrows the policy choices to a suboptimal set. We highlight this issue and call for a broader thinking of optimal policies. |
| Keywords: | central banking; fiscal policy; monetary policy; optimal policy; optimal policy mix |
| JEL: | E02 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10767&r=all |
| By: | Jidong Zhou (NYU Stern School of Business); Andrew Rhodes (Toulouse School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how consumer multiproduct shopping and search frictions jointly affect retail market structure. Single-product shops with different products can merge to form a multiproduct retailer. By doing this, they provide one-stop shopping convenience and thus attract more consumers. However, the conglomerate merger also changes the market structure and affects price competition. We fiÂÂ…nd that an asymmetric market structure with one multiproduct retailer and smaller single-product competitors often leads to the weakest price competition. We solve for the equilibrium market structure, and show that it is asymmetric whenever the search friction is not too high. Conglomerate merger which leads to such an asymmetric market structure often raises market prices and harms consumers. Due to the endogeneity of the market structure, reducing the search friction does not necessarily induce lower market prices and higher consumer welfare. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:409&r=all |
| By: | Luo, Yao (University of Toronto); Perrigne, Isabelle (Rice University); Vuong, Quang (NYU) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a methodology for analyzing nonlinear pricing data with an illustration on cellular phone. The model incorporates consumers exclusion. Assuming a known traffic, we establish identification of the model primitives using the first-order conditions of both the firm and the consumer up to a cost parameterization. Next, we propose a new one-step quantile-based non-parametric method to estimate the consumers inverse demand and their type distribution. We show that our nonparametric estimator is the square root of N-consistent. We then introduce unobserved product heterogeneity with an unknown tariff. We show how our identification and estimation results extend. Our analysis of cellular phone consumption data assesses the performance of alternative pricing strategies relative to nonlinear pricing. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-003&r=all |
| By: | Pennerstorfer, Dieter; Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp; Schutz, Nicolas; Weiss, Christoph; Yontcheva, Biliana |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between information and price dispersion in the retail gasoline market. We first show that the clearinghouse models in the spirit of Stahl (1989) generate an inverted-U relationship between information and price dispersion. We construct a new measure of information based on precise commuter data from Austria. Regular commuters can freely sample gasoline prices on their commuting route, providing us with spatial variation in the share of informed consumers. We use detailed information on gas station level prices to construct price dispersion measures. Our empirical estimates of the relationship are in line with the theoretical predictions. |
| Keywords: | commuter data; price dispersion; retail gasoline; search |
| JEL: | D43 D83 L13 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10771&r=all |
| By: | Tsurumi, Tetsuya; Managi, Shunsuke; Hibiki, Akira |
| Abstract: | The argument that stringent environmental regulations are generally thought to harm export flows is crucial when determining policy recommendations related to environmental preservation and international competitiveness. By using bilateral trade data, we examine the relationships between trade flows and various environmental stringency indices. Previous studies have used energy intensity, abatement cost intensity, and survey indices for regulations as proxies for the strictness of environmental policy. However, they have overlooked the indirect effect of environmental regulations on trade flows. If the strong version of the Porter hypothesis is confirmed, we need to consider the effect of environmental regulation on GDP, because GDP induced by environmental regulation affects trade flows. The present study clarifies the effects of regulation on trade flows by distinguishing between the indirect and direct effects. Our results indicate an observed non-negligible indirect effect of regulation, implying that the overall effect of appropriate regulation benefits trade flows. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulations, Porter hypothesis, Trade and environment, Gravity model |
| JEL: | F18 Q56 Q59 |
| Date: | 2015–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66321&r=all |
| By: | Qizhou Xiong |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates relative risk aversion using the observed shares of risky assets and characteristics of households from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey of the European Central Bank. Given that the risky share is a fractional response variable belonging to [0, 1], this paper proposes a censored fractional response estimation method using extremal quantiles to approximate the censoring thresholds. Considering that participation in risky asset markets is costly, I estimate both the heterogeneous relative risk aversion and participation cost using a working sample that includes both risky asset holders and non-risky asset holders by treating the zero risky share as the result of heterogeneous self-censoring. Estimation results show lower participation costs and higher relative risk aversion than what was previously estimated. The estimated median relative risk aversions of eight European countries range from 4.6 to 13.6. However, the results are sensitive to households’ perception of the risky asset market return and volatility. |
| Keywords: | european household finance, relative risk aversion, censored fractional response model, extremal quantile regression |
| JEL: | C21 C24 E44 G11 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-15&r=all |
| By: | Anagol, Santosh (University of PA); Etang, Alvin (Yale University); Karlan, Dean (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the returns from owning cows and buffaloes in rural India. We estimate that when valuing labor at market wages, households earn large, negative average returns from holding cows and buffaloes, at negative 64% and negative 39% respectively. This puzzle is mostly explained if we value the household's own labor at zero (a stark assumption), in which case estimated average returns for cows is negative 6% and positive 13% for buffaloes. Why do households continue to invest in livestock if economic returns are negative, or are these estimates wrong? We discuss potential explanations, including labor market failures, for why livestock investments may persist. |
| JEL: | E21 M40 O12 Q10 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:122&r=all |
| By: | Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (EVS - UMR 5600 Environnement Ville Société - ENSAL - Ecole nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint-Etienne - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon, PIESO-ENSMSE - Département Performance Industrielle et Environnementale des Systèmes et des Organisations - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - Institut Mines-Télécom - Institut Henri Fayol); Nicolas Malhéné (EIGSI - EIGSI - EIGSI) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the editorial to the Vol. 15, n° 4 of Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal. This is a special issue on logistics pooling for city supply. This paper motivates the special issue, positioning the volume with respect to current or near-past works and presents the set of selected papers included in the issue. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01139476&r=all |
| By: | Guido Menzio; Nicholas Trachter |
| Abstract: | We develop a search-theoretic model of the product market that generates price dispersion across and within stores. Buyers differ with respect to their ability to shop around, both at different stores and at different times. The fact that some buyers can shop from only one seller while others can shop from multiple sellers causes price dispersion across stores. The fact that the buyers who can shop from multiple sellers are more likely to be able to shop at inconvenient times (e.g., on Monday morning) causes price dispersion within stores. Specifically, it causes sellers to post different prices for the same good at different times in order to discriminate between different types of buyers. |
| JEL: | D43 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21493&r=all |
| By: | Crowley, Patrick (Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi); Hudgins, David (Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi) |
| Abstract: | This paper first applies the MODWT (Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform) to Euro Area quarterly GDP data from 1995 – 2014 to obtain the underlying cyclical structure of the GDP components. We then design optimal fiscal and monetary policy within a large state-space LQ-tracking wavelet decomposition model. Our study builds a MATLAB program that simulates optimal policy thrusts at each frequency range where: (1) both fiscal and monetary policy are emphasized, (2) only fiscal policy is relatively active, and (3) when only monetary policy is relatively active. The results show that the monetary authorities should utilize a strategy that influences the short-term market interest rate to undulate based on the cyclical wavelet decomposition in order to compute the optimal timing and levels for the aggregate interest rate adjustments. We also find that modest emphasis on active interest rate movements can alleviate much of the volatility in optimal government spending, while rendering similarly favorable levels of aggregate consumption and investment. This research is the first to construct joint fiscal and monetary policies in an applied optimal control model based on the short and long cyclical lag structures obtained from wavelet analysis. |
| Keywords: | discrete wavelet analysis; euro area; fiscal policy; LQ tracking; monetary policy; optimal control |
| JEL: | C49 C61 C63 C88 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2015–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2015_012&r=all |
| By: | Thi Hong Hanh Pham (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the link between intra-regional trade and within income inequality. To do so, we use a data sample of nineteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region - one of the most dynamic economic regions. Differing from the existing empirical literature, we employ the gravity model to explain income inequality in function of bilateral trade variables. We find that intra-regional exports can narrow within-country income inequalities, while the opposite tends to be true for intra-regional imports. Moreover, the creation effect of exports on income inequality seems to be dominated by the diversion effect of imports. Our finding also supports the hump-shaped relationship between per capita GDP and within-country income inequality described by the Kuznets curve. |
| Date: | 2014–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01087366&r=all |
| By: | Berger, Allen N. (University of SC and University of PA); Bouwman, Christa H. S. (Case Western Reserve University and University of PA); Kick, Thomas (Deutsche Bundesbank); Schaeck, Klaus (Bangor University) |
| Abstract: | We present the first study that jointly examines how regulatory interventions and capital support affect troubled banks' risk taking and liquidity creation. Using instrumental variables, we document that regulatory interventions and capital support both succeed in reducing bank risk taking. Regulatory interventions also trigger decreases in liquidity creation, pointing towards potential social costs of making troubled banks safer. These effects materialize quickly, persist in the long run, and are not offset by competitors' actions. Our findings provide novel insights into how supervision affects bank conduct and informs the debate about the design of bank bailouts. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-07&r=all |
| By: | Giannakopoulos, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the wife’s labour supply responses to their husband’s job loss during the economic crisis in Greece. Using data from the Labour Force Survey (2007-2014) we explicitly identify the labour market transitions of both spouses within the household. We found that women whose husbands involuntarily separated from their jobs have increased their participation into the labour market, confirming the theoretical predictions of the added worker effect. However, this result is not accompanied by higher employment rates. In fact, those women entering the labour market as a reaction to husband’s joblessness become unemployed. These findings intensify as crisis deepens. Our results have significant policy implications for the shadow wages of married women in Greece. |
| Keywords: | Added worker effect, Labour force participation, Women, Greece |
| JEL: | C21 D13 J22 |
| Date: | 2015–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66298&r=all |
| By: | Ana Fernandez Zubieta (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | The report offers an analysis of the R&I system in Spain for 2014, including relevant policies and funding, with particular focus on topics critical for two EU policies: the European Research Area and the Innovation Union. The report was prepared according to a set of guidelines for collecting and analysing a range of materials, including policy documents, statistics, evaluation reports, websites etc. The report identifies the structural challenges of the Spanish research and innovation system and assesses the match between the national priorities and those challenges, highlighting the latest policy developments, their dynamics and impact in the overall national context. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Spain |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc96471&r=all |
| By: | Torberg Falch (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Bjarne Strøm (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Astrid Marie Jorde Sandsør (Department of Economics, University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the strict class size rule in Norway and matched individual and school register information for 1982?2011 to estimate long run causal effects on income and educational attainment. Contrary to recent evidence from the US and Sweden, we do not find any significant average effect on long run outcomes of reduced class size. We further use the large register data set and quasi-experimental strategy to estimate whether the class size effect depends on external conditions facing students and schools, such as teacher quality, extent of upper secondary school choice, school district size, local fiscal constraints and labor market conditions. Overall, we find that the class size effect does not depend on school district characteristics. The absence of class size effects on long run outcomes in Norway is consistent with earlier findings for short run outcomes using comparable data and empirical strategies. |
| Keywords: | class size, school district, quasi-experiment, educational attainment, income |
| JEL: | H7 |
| Date: | 2015–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:16415&r=all |
| By: | Tor Eriksson (Department of economics - University of Aarhus); Lei Mao (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS, Central University of Finance and Economics); Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | Are people willing to sacrifice resources to save one's and others' face? In a laboratory experiment, we study whether individuals forego resources to avoid the public exposure of the least performer in their group. We show that a majority of individuals are willing to pay to preserve not only their self-but also other group members' image. This behavior is frequent even in the absence of group identity. When group identity is more salient, individuals help regardless of whether the least performer is an in-group or an out-group. This suggests that saving others' face is a strong social norm. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01161750&r=all |
| By: | Dana Petersen; Mynti Hossain; Rachel Burton; Christal Ramos |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from North Carolina's experience in the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | North Carolina, CHIPRA, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e06c4528be76490caa59285f62f61b24&r=all |
| By: | Louafi Bouzouina (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]); Nathalie Havet (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Pascal Pochet (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE]) |
| Abstract: | Alors que le désenclavement des zones urbaines sensibles est l'un des objectifs de la politique de la ville, visant notamment à favoriser l'accès à l'emploi, très peu travaux s'intéressent à l'analyse des pratiques de mobilité de leurs habitants. En se focalisant sur la population des actifs de l'aire urbaine de Lyon, l'objectif de cet article est de tester l'impact du lieu de résidence, à travers la distinction ZUS/non ZUS, sur leur mobilité quotidienne et celle liée au travail en particulier. L'analyse repose sur la dernière Enquête Ménages Déplacements lyonnaise (2006) enrichie d'autres sources de données spatialisées. Les résultats des modèles multivariés montrent que le fait d'habiter un quartier ZUS réduit le nombre de déplacements des actifs, mais aussi leur distance et leur temps au quotidien. En revanche, quand il s'agit de la seule mobilité domicile-travail, les actifs de ces quartiers sont amenés à parcourir de plus longues distances. Ces résultats laissent entrevoir les difficultés spécifiques des actifs dans les zones urbaines défavorisées en matière de mobilité quotidienne et d'accès à l'emploi et aux aménités. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01143900&r=all |
| By: | Majumder,Amita; Ray,Ranjan; Santra,Sattwik |
| Abstract: | This paper makes analytical, methodological and empirical contributions to the literature on purchasing power parity. Purchasing power parities are required in a host of cross-country welfare comparisons, such as poverty rates and gross domestic product. The subject has recently generated much interest in the wake of the release of the final results of the 2011 International Comparison Program. This paper introduces a preference-based analytical framework that departs from the conventional Balassa-Samuelson framework in deriving empirically verifiable propositions on the link between purchasing power parity and exchange rates, and between purchasing power parity and inequality. The paper also provides an alternative methodology for calculating purchasing power parities that are benchmarked against the 2011 International Comparison Program purchasing power parities. As this study shows, the alternative methodology is capable of easy implementation on readily available data sets. The benchmarking exercise suggests that the 2011 International Comparison Program generally understates purchasing power parity and overstates gross domestic product, and that the purchasing power parities vary across expenditure percentiles. The study reports regional variation in the direction of the difference between the two purchasing power parities. The empirical evidence is supportive of the positive association between inequality and purchasing power parity derived in the paper. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Inequality |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7395&r=all |
| By: | Georgiana-Denisa Banulescu (Maastricht University - univ. Maastricht, LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS); Bertrand Candelon (Maastricht University - univ. Maastricht); Christophe Hurlin (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS); Sébastien Laurent (AMU IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Aix-en-Provence - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study various MIDAS models in which the future daily variance is directly related to past observations of intraday predictors. Our goal is to determine if there exists an optimal sampling frequency in terms of volatility prediction. Via Monte Carlo simulations we show that in a world without microstructure noise, the best model is the one using the highest available frequency for the predictors. However, in the presence of microstructure noise, the use of ultra high-frequency predictors may be problematic, leading to poor volatility forecasts. In the application, we consider two highly liquid assets (i.e., Microsoft and S&P 500). We show that, when using raw intraday squared log-returns for the explanatory variable, there is a "high-frequency wall" or frequency limit above which MIDAS-RV forecasts deteriorate. We also show that an improvement can be obtained when using intraday squared log-returns sampled at a higher frequency, provided they are pre-filtered to account for the presence of jumps, intraday periodicity and/or microstructure noise. Finally, we compare the MIDAS model to other competing variance models including GARCH, GAS, HAR-RV and HAR-RV-J models. We find that the MIDAS model provides equivalent or even better variance forecasts than these models, when it is applied on filtered data. |
| Date: | 2014–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01078158&r=all |
| By: | Christopher Huckfeldt (Cornell University); Antonella Trigari (UniversitàBocconi); Mark Gertler (New York University) |
| Abstract: | Recent papers interpret micro-level findings of greater cyclicality in the wages of job-changers as evidence for flexible wages of new hires, thus concluding that wage rigidity is not an empirically plausible mechanism for resolving the unemployment volatility puzzle. We analyze data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to argue that greater cyclicality of wages for job changers reflects cyclicality in the composition of match quality across new hires. After introducing controls for the cyclicality of job-to-job flows, we find no evidence for greater wage flexibility among new hires. In light of our empirical findings, we study an equilibrium model of unemployment with staggered Nash bargaining, heterogeneous match quality, and on-the-job search. Workers in bad matches vary their search intensity according to the probability of finding a better match, generating cyclicality in the contribution of bad-to-good transitions to total job-to-job flows. Using simulated data from our model, we compute measures of new hire wage cyclicality analogous to those found in the literature and show that cyclical match composition in our model generates spurious evidence of new hire wage flexibility of comparable in magnitude to what we estimate from the SIPP. The model is also successful in accounting for the cyclicality of job creation and the dynamics of aggregate unemployment. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:438&r=all |
| By: | Matthew D. Adler; Paul Dolan; Georgios Kavetsos |
| Abstract: | A large literature documents the correlates and causes of subjective well-being, or happiness. But few studies have investigated whether people choose happiness. Is happiness all that people want from life, or are they willing to sacrifice it for other attributes, such as income and health? Tackling this question has largely been the preserve of philosophers. In this article, we find out just how much happiness matters to ordinary citizens. Our sample consists of nearly 13,000 members of the UK and US general populations. We ask them to choose between, and make judgments over, lives that are high (or low) in different types of happiness and low (or high) in income, physical health, family, career success, or education. We find that people by and large choose the life that is highest in happiness but health is by far the most important other concern, with considerable numbers of people choosing to be healthy rather than happy. We discuss some possible reasons for this preference. |
| Keywords: | Happiness, subjective well-being, preferences |
| JEL: | D6 H00 I00 I31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1366&r=all |
| By: | Matthew Gibson (Williams College); Jeffrey Shrader (University of California-San Diego) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the productivity effects of the single largest use of time - sleep. Using time use diaries from the United States, we demonstrate that later sunset time reduces worker sleep and wages. Sunset time one hour later decreases short-run wages by 0.5% and long-run wages by 4.5%. After investigating this relationship and ruling out alternative hypotheses, we implement an instrumental variables specification that provides the first causal estimates of the impact of sleep on wages. A one-hour increase in average weekly sleep increases wages by 1.5% in the short run and by 4.9% in the long run. |
| JEL: | J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2015-17&r=all |
| By: | Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker |
| Abstract: | The massive decline in international trade in 2008/09 is often attributed to the global deterioration in financial conditions after the bankruptcy of a US investment bank, Lehman Brothers. This paper examines the association between external finance and firm activity in Germany in more detail. In particular, we explore a novel data set that matches a full sample of quarterly bank-firm lending data with detailed information on borrowers and lenders. Our results indicate that foreign sales are insensitive to variations in external finance. While German banks affected by the crisis have significantly reduced their credit supply, we only observe a causal (negative) effect on domestic sales. Exporting firms, in contrast, seem to be particularly good borrowers. |
| Keywords: | trade finance,export finance,relationship lending |
| JEL: | E44 E32 G21 F40 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:252015&r=all |
| By: | Yu-Chin Hsu (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); Robert P. Lieli (Department of Economics Central European University, Budapest and the National Bank of Hungary); Tsung-Chih Lai (Department of Economics, National Taiwan University) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new monotonizing method to obtain estimators for the distribution functions of potential outcomes among the group of compliers in an endogenous treatment effect model that are monotonically increasing and bounded between zero and one. Corresponding quantile function estimators are obtain by applying the inverse map to the CDF estimators. We show that both these estimators converge weakly to zero mean Gaussian processes. A simulation method is proposed to approximate the limiting processes for uniform inference. A Monte Carlo simulation and an application addressing the effect of fertility on family income illustrate the usefulness of the results. JEL Classification: C21, C26 |
| Keywords: | distribution function, quantile function, treatment effects, instrumental variables, inverse probability weighted estimator |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sin:wpaper:15-a003&r=all |
| By: | Javier Hualde; Fabrizio Iacone |
| Abstract: | We consider alternative asymptotics for frequency domain estimates of the long run variance, in which the bandwidth is kept fixed. For a weakly dependent process, this does not yield a consistent estimateof the long run variance, but the standardized mean has t limit distribution, which, for any given bandwidth, appears to be more precise than the traditional Gaussian limit. In presence of fractionally integrated data, the limit distribution of the estimate is not standard, and we derive critical values for the standardized mean for various bandwidths. Again, we find that this asymptotic result provides a better approximation than other proposals like the Memory Autocorrelation Consistent (MAC) estimate. In multivariate set up, fixed bandwidth asymptotics may be also used to provide a characterization to the limit distribution of estimates of cointegrating parameter which differs substantially from the conventional Narrow Band asymptotics. |
| Keywords: | long run variance estimation, long memory, large-m and fixed-masymptotic theory |
| JEL: | C32 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:15/14&r=all |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Ian Hill; Ashley Palmer; Margo Wilkinson; Arnav Shah |
| Abstract: | This brief highlights the major strategies, lessons learned, and outcomes from Alaska’s experience in the first 5 years of the quality demonstration funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) through the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA). |
| Keywords: | CHIPRA, Alaska, Quality Demonstration Grant Program |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e0dd9d090f61491382908031312455a8&r=all |
| By: | Máximo Camacho; Danilo Leiva-León; Gabriel Pérez-Quiros |
| Abstract: | Previous studies have shown that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on the market expectations of its future actions. This paper proposes an econometric framework to address the effect of the current state of the economy on monetary policy expectations. Specifically, we study the effect of contractionary (or expansionary) demand (or supply) shocks hitting the euro area countries on the expectations of the ECB.s monetary policy in two stages. In the first stage, we construct indexes of real activity and inflation dynamics for each country, based on soft and hard indicators. In the second stage, we use those indexes to provide assessments on the type of aggregate shock hitting each country and assess its effect on monetary policy expectations at different horizons. Our results indicate that expectations are responsive to aggregate contractionary shocks, but not to expansionary shocks. Particularly, contractionary demand shocks have a negative effect on short term monetary policy expectations, while contractionary supply shocks have negative effect on medium and long term expectations. Moreover, shocks to different economies do not have significantly different effects on expectations, although some differences across countries arise. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:764&r=all |
| By: | Hélène Le Cadre (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Anthony Papavasiliou (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain); Yves Smeers (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we provide a new methodology for optimizing a portfolio of wind farms within a market environment, for two Market Designs (exogenous prices and endogenous prices). Our model is built on an agent based representation of suppliers and generators interacting in a certain number of geographic demand markets, organized as two tiered systems. Assuming rational expectation of the agents with respect to the outcome of the real-time market, suppliers take forward positions, which act as signals in the day-ahead market, to compensate for the uncertainty associated with supply and demand. Then, generators optimize their bilateral trades with the generators in the other markets. The Nash Equilibria resulting from this Signaling Game are characterized using Game Theory. The Markowitz Frontier, containing the set of efficient wind farm portfolios, is derived theoretically as a function of the number of wind farms and of their concentration. Finally, using a case study of France, Germany and Belgium, we simulate the Markowitz Frontier contour in the expected cost-risk plane. |
| Date: | 2015–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01007992&r=all |
| By: | Christian Pfeifer (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The author uses large-scale German survey data for the years 2009, 2011 and 2013 in order to analyze the nexus between the individual perception of being unfairly paid and measures for quantity and quality of sleep, namely, hours of sleep during workweek and during weekend, happiness with sleep, and sleep disorders diagnosed by a doctor. Main findings of the regression analysis are that workers, who perceive their own wage as unfair, sleep significantly less during the workweek (1.2 to 2.5 percent), are significantly less satisfied with their sleep (1 to 5 percent) and are significantly more likely to have sleep disorders (7 to 36 percent). Moreover, workers with more weekly working hours sleep significantly less during the workweek (0.1 to 0.2 percent per hour) and are significantly less satisfied with their sleep (0.1 to 0.2 percent per hour). The size of the hourly wage is however not significantly correlated with any of the sleep outcomes and the household income seems also of minor importance, even though the estimated coefficients have the expected signs implied by substitution and income effects. The overall results suggest that unfair wage perceptions, which are related to stress, negatively affect workers’ sleep and, consequently, their health. |
| Keywords: | fairness; health; income; sleep quantity; sleep quality; wage; working hours |
| JEL: | I12 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lue:wpaper:345&r=all |
| By: | Jankensgård, Håkan (Department of Business Administration); Alviniussen, Alf (European Banking Authority); Oxelheim, Lars (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we challenge the role of Foreign Exchange Risk Management (FXRM) in corporate management. We believe it is fair to characterize FXRM, on the whole, as a legacy activity rather than something that reflects a realistic cost-benefit analysis at the enterprise-level. The Board of Directors, as the designated guardians of the interests of shareholders, has a key role in setting the firm on a path towards a cost-efficient and centralized FXRM that preserves the firm’s transparency and predictability towards the investor community. A policy conclusion from our analysis is that responsibility for FX policy should shift from the traditional Finance/Treasury orientation to a group risk function (e.g. a Chief Risk Officer) supported by a risk committee dedicated to integrated risk management. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange; Risk management; Transparency; Risk committee; Integrated risk management |
| JEL: | G30 G32 |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1078&r=all |
| By: | Fabio CROCCOLO; Alessandro VIOLI |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this presentation is to examine a specific rail transport sector, namely high-speed (HS) rail, in Italy. This analysis will cover the main features of the Italian HS system by studying aspects such as: the legislative framework, infrastructure, services, traffic data and market shares, in addition to regulatory matters. |
| Date: | 2013–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2013/29-en&r=all |
| By: | Boyson, Nicole M. (Northeastern University); Fahlenbrach, Rudiger (EPFL Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute); Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | We propose a theory of regulatory arbitrage by banks and test it using trust preferred securities (TPS) issuance. From 1996 to 2007, U.S. banks in the aggregate increased their regulatory capital through issuance of TPS while their net issuance of common stock was negative due to repurchases. We assume that, in the absence of capital requirements, a bank has an optimal capital structure that depends on its business model. Capital requirements can impose constraints on bank decisions. If a bank's optimal capital structure also meets regulatory capital requirements with a sufficient buffer, the bank is unconstrained by these requirements. We expect that unconstrained banks will not issue TPS, that constrained banks will issue TPS and engage in other forms of regulatory arbitrage, and that banks with TPS will be riskier than other banks with the same amount of regulatory capital, and therefore, more adversely affected by the credit crisis. Our empirical evidence supports these predictions. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-03&r=all |
| By: | Rajeev Dehejia; Cristian Pop-Eleches; Cyrus Samii |
| Abstract: | Experimental evidence on a range of interventions in developing countries is accumulating rapidly. Is it possible to extrapolate from an experimental evidence base to other locations of policy interest (from “reference” to “target” sites)? And which factors determine the accuracy of such an extrapolation? We investigate applying the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment (the effect of boy-boy or girl-girl as the first two children on incremental fertility and mothers’ labor force participation) to data from International IPUMS on 166 country-year censuses. We define the external validity function with extrapolation error depending on covariate differences between reference and target locations, and find that smaller differences in geography, education, calendar year, and mothers’ labor force participation lead to lower extrapolation error. As experimental evidence accumulates, out-of-sample extrapolation error does not systematically approach zero if the available evidence base is naïvely extrapolated, but does if the external validity function is used to select the most appropriate reference context for a given target (although absolute error remains meaningful relative to the magnitude of the treatment effect). We also investigate where to locate experiments and the decision problem associated with extrapolating from existing evidence rather than running a new experiment at a target site. |
| JEL: | C18 C31 C9 J13 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21459&r=all |
| By: | Dyballa, Katharina; Kraft, Kornelius |
| Abstract: | Contrary to previous literature we hypothesize that interests of labor may well - like that of shareholders - aim at securing the long-run survival of the firm. Consequently, employee representatives on the supervisory board could well have an interest in increasing incentive-based compensation to avoid excessive risk taking and short-run orientated decisions. We compile unique panel data on executive compensation over the periods 2006 to 2011 for 405 listed companies and use a Hausman-Taylor approach to estimate the effect of codetermination on the compensation design. Finally, codetermination has a significantly positive effect on performance-based components of compensation, which supports our hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Executive Compensation,Codetermination,Principal-Agent Theory,Corporate Governance,Hausman-Taylor |
| JEL: | J52 L20 G32 M12 C33 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:15053&r=all |
| By: | Iqbal, Razi; Saeed, Dawer |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes the design of an Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) System utilizing short range wireless technologies. One of the aims of this paper is to discuss the cost and power efficiency of the proposed system while communicating information from the road side units (RSUs) to the control center using short range wireless technologies. The paper proposes the use of ZigBee (IEEE 802.15.4) to transfer information which will reduce the overall cost of the system and enables it to be developed and deployed in developing countries where cost and power are major factors in the design of any system. Furthermore, this paper also discusses the suitability of ZigBee for special outdoor systems like Intelligent Transportation Systems where wireless communication can be affected by various factors like distance between wireless modules, communication at high density traffic areas, effect of weather and interference of other radio signals on wireless communication. |
| Keywords: | Wireless Communication, Automatic Number Plate Recognition, Intelligent Transportation Systems, Wireless Channel Effect |
| JEL: | Z00 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65914&r=all |
| By: | Breitschopf, Barbara |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of German policies promoting PV on industry structures and technological changes in the PV sector. A quantitative analysis is conducted by applying a set of policy variables derived from demand-, supplierand R&D-focused policies. To depict the industry structure, the production volume in MW of German PV module and cell manufacturers offers a good basis to derive structural variables. Patent applications are used to illustrate technological changes and competitiveness. The approach includes a descriptive as well as a multivariate analysis relying on the operationalization of demand policies and a policy mix. The results underpin the significance of demand policies and a policy mix for market formation and knowledge generation. But they also indicate that policies enhancing PV demand induce growth in PV industries abroad as well, which in turn affects domestic industry structures. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s102015&r=all |
| By: | Berger, Allen N. (University of SC and University of PA); Black, Lamont K. (DePaul University); Bouwman, Christa H. S. (Case Western Reserve University and University of PA); Dlugosz, Jennifer (Washington University in St Louis) |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve injected unprecedented liquidity into banks during the crisis using the discount window and Term Auction Facility. We examine these facilities' use and effectiveness. We find: small bank users were generally weak, large bank users were not; the funds substituted to a limited degree for other funds; these facilities increased aggregate lending which would have decreased in their absence. The funds enhanced lending of expanding banks and reduced the decline at contracting banks. Small banks increased small-firm lending, while large banks enhanced large-firm lending. Loan quality only improved at small banks, while both left loan contract terms unchanged. |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-06&r=all |
| By: | Choi, Sang Rim (Hanyang University); Park, Daekeun (Hanyang University); Tschoegl, Adrian E. (University of PA) |
| Abstract: | We update three earlier articles on the determinants of interpenetration of financial centers by banks by adding the year 2010 to our analyses for 1970 and 1980, 1990, and 2000. In addition, we also re-estimate our model to include data for Beijing/Shanghai, and add those emerging centers for 2010. First, the number of banks in our data and the number of their offices in other centers has fallen by 46% and 24% since peaking in 1990. Second, even so our matrix saw less turbulence than in the prior two decades as density and number of presences in other centers per bank increased. Third, London had regained the first place from New York. Tokyo remains in fifth place after Hong Kong and Singapore. Once one includes Beijing/Shanghai, the Chinese centers now rank first and Tokyo sixth. Fourth, Paris and Frankfurt/Hamburg have regained some centrality. Fifth, our gravity model approach continues to model the data well, with distance between centers continuing to depress interpenetration between centers as it did in 2000. Lastly, the primary effect of introducing Beijing/Shanghai as a center has increased the importance of interpenetration as banks from Beijing and Shanghai are going to centers from which banks are coming to Beijing and Shanghai. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-16&r=all |
| By: | Stefano Puddu (Institute of economic research IRENE, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland); Martin Péclat (Institute of economic research IRENE, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset, based on the 49th Swiss legislature, we assess lobbying effect on politicians' votes. Counselors' ties are approximated by their mandates in in legal entities. Political representatives' fidelity to their political group is measured by a dummy proximity indicator. We find that proximity increases over time, as the legislature approaches to the end. Furthermore, using alternative techniques, we find that lobbying matters. More precisely, focusing on the econometric results, once controlled for individual features and political groups affiliation, we find that having mandates in energy, banking and insurance, and in the transport sectors reduces counselors' proximity. Finally, we also find that being male, young and being elected in a French or Italian speaking canton negatively affects the proximity measure. |
| Keywords: | Groups of pressure, lobbies, special interests, Swiss Parliament, voting behaviour. |
| JEL: | D7 H7 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:15-09&r=all |
| By: | K Autchariyapanitkul (Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University); S Chanaim (Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University); S Sriboonchitta (Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University); T Denoeux (Heudiasyc - Heuristique et Diagnostic des Systèmes Complexes [Compiègne] - Université de Technologie de Compiègne - CNRS, Labex MS2T - Laboratoire d'Excellence "Maîtrise des Systèmes de Systèmes Technologiques" - Université de Technologie de Compiègne - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | We consider an inference method for prediction based on belief functions in quantile regression with an asymmetric Laplace distribution. We apply this method to the capital asset pricing model to estimate the beta coefficient and measure volatility under various market conditions at given quantiles. Likelihood-based belief functions are constructed from historical data of the securities in the S&P500 market. The results give us evidence on the systematic risk, in the form of a consonant belief function specified from the asymmetric Laplace distribution likelihood function given recorded data. Finally, we use the method to forecast the return of an individual stock. |
| Date: | 2014–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01127790&r=all |
| By: | Christian Gillitzer (Reserve Bank of Australia); Jin Cong Wang (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the relationship between housing wealth and consumption is important, because it informs the extent to which fluctuations in house prices might affect the broader economy. We investigate the relationship between housing wealth and consumption using postcode-level variation in house prices and administrative data on new passenger vehicle registrations as a proxy for consumption. In our preferred specification, we estimate an elasticity of new passenger vehicle registrations with respect to gross housing wealth of 0.4–0.5, and an average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for new passenger vehicles of about 0.06 cents per dollar change in gross housing wealth. Assuming new vehicle registrations and total consumption have the same sensitivity to changes in housing wealth implies an MPC for total consumption of 2 cents per dollar change in gross housing wealth. But US evidence indicates that new vehicle consumption is particularly sensitive to changes in housing wealth. Assuming the same is true for Australia, our estimates imply an MPC for total consumption of less than 0.25 cents. Notably, we find evidence that the relationship between house prices and new vehicle registrations is heterogenous in income, with low-income households having a higher propensity to purchase a new vehicle following a rise in housing wealth than high-income households. This implies that the distribution of changes in house prices is relevant for understanding its effect on aggregate consumption. |
| Keywords: | consumption; house prices |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E60 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2015-08&r=all |
| By: | Kim Vu (CRF - CNAM Paris - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers - Paris - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]) |
| Abstract: | Entretenir le sens de la coopération est l'une des compétences « douces » des managers. Cette étude exploratoire s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une recherche doctorale et vise à décrire comment la façon de se comporter et la manière de penser des managers sont influencées par le souvenir de situations déjà vécues dans la vie quotidienne. Nous nous appuierons sur les travaux de Schugurensky (2007) concernant l’apprentissage informel, l’intentionnalité et la conscience que l’on peut considérer comme des indicateurs de différentes formes d’apprentissage informel. L’objectif de cette communication étant de présenter les données recueillies à partir des dossiers d’inscription au CNAM MBA1 non seulement les récits des candidats mais également les commentaires de leurs employeurs. |
| Date: | 2015–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01182185&r=all |
| By: | Tianhao Zhi (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | The Modern Money Theory, originated from the seminal work of Knapp (1905) that established the “chartalism school of monetary theory” and later on, synthesized by so-called “neo-chartalists” such as Wray (2012), is a descriptive economic theory that examines the procedures and consequences of using government-issued tokens as the unit of money. Despite its high relevance in today's policy arena that demands a thorough understanding over the modern fiat monetary system, MMT is generally not well-received by mainstream academics due to some of its radical claims. In an experimental and preliminary manner, this paper proposes a set of disequilibrium models that aims to take a further investigation over the balance sheet effects of those transactions discussed by MMT from a dynamic perspective. We contend that some of the claims made by MMT are fallacious due to its omission of dynamic and behavioural aspects. The framework proposed in this paper would also be useful for future research from a dynamic MMT perspective. |
| Keywords: | Modern Money Theory (MMT); endogenous money; interbank market; fiscal policy; disequilibrium dynamics |
| JEL: | E12 E52 E62 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:wpaper:184&r=all |
| By: | Michi NISHIHARA (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University Swiss Finance Institute, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne); Takashi SHIBATA (Graduate School of Social Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a dynamic model in which shareholders of a firm in distress have a choice of whether to proceed to debt restructuring or direct liquidation at an arbitrary time. In the model, we show the following results. Fewer asset sales, lower financing, debt renegotiation, and running costs, a lower premium to the debt holders, a lower cash flow volatility, and a higher initial coupon increase the shareholdersf incentive to choose debt restructuring to avoid full liquidation. In the debt renegotiation process, the shareholders arrange the coupon reduction and use equity financing to retire a part of the debt value to the debt holders. The timing of debt restructuring always coincides with that of liquidation without debt renegotiation. Most notably, the shareholders do not prefer asset sale in debt restructuring even if they face high financing costs. The possibility of debt renegotiation in the future increases the initial leverage ratio in the optimal capital structure. |
| Keywords: | Preemption; real options; asset sale; debt renegotiation; liquidation; capital structure. |
| JEL: | C73 G31 G33 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1522&r=all |
| By: | Dumludag, Devrim (Marmara University); Gokdemir, Ozge (Istanbul University); Vendrik, Maarten C.M. (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of social comparison with a wide range of reference groups on the life satisfaction of Turkish immigrants in the Netherlands. For two sets of ethnic and life-domain reference groups, results are obtained that deviate from the findings of recent studies and that suggest the impact of the collectivistic subculture of the Turkish immigrants. Perceived importance of income comparison with Dutch natives is positively correlated to life satisfaction, supporting an interpretation of this comparison as a positive emancipatory stimulus in the pursuit of self-improvement of the Turkish immigrants. Perceived importance of income comparison with relatives in the Netherlands is positively correlated to life satisfaction as well, which can be interpreted in terms of an underlying feeling of connectedness with one's relatives. On the other hand, Turkish immigrants who have a higher household income than relatives are significantly less satisfied with their life, suggesting the unattractiveness of deviating too much from one's relatives. For other reference groups some interesting results are obtained as well. |
| Keywords: | happiness, life satisfaction, relative income, social comparison, collectivistic, immigrants |
| JEL: | I31 Z13 J15 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9282&r=all |
| By: | Fuess, Roland; Grabellus, Markus; Mager, Ferdinand; Stein, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy “ticker” news before scheduled macroeconomic announcements, is significantly related to the likelihood of price jumps and independent of the magnitude of news surprises or pre-announcement trading activity. We therefore interpret this variable as a measure of additional uncertainty in the market, which is resolved by macroeconomic news as “hard” facts. |
| Keywords: | Information density; jump identification; macroeconomic announcements; noisy information; price discovery process |
| JEL: | C58 F31 G12 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:17&r=all |
| By: | Sebastien Delmotte (MAD-Environnement - MAD-Environnement); Alain Desroches (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - Ecole Centrale Paris) |
| Abstract: | Après un rappel sur les concepts fondamentaux en management des risques, les auteurs présentent la méthode d’Analyse Globale des Risques Quantitative (AGRq), variante quantitative de la méthode AGR et fondée sur la représentation probabiliste des risques dans les processus d’évaluation, de décision et de financement. AGR est le nom donné par son auteur à la méthode APR réactualisée [2] qui, après plusieurs évolutions importantes du processus initial, permet de couvrir un périmètre d’analyse et de gestion plus vaste tant au niveau des risques structurels que fonctionnels de toute nature pendant tout le cycle de vie d‘un système, de l’étude de sa faisabilité jusqu’à celle de son démantèlement. Les invariants du processus d’analyse de l’AGR et de l’AGRq sont détaillés en mettant l’accent sur les spécificités de l’approche quantitative, illustrée par la présentation des formats des référentiels d’évaluation et de décision, des supports de l’analyse et de ses sorties. |
| Abstract: | After a reminder about the fundamental concepts in risk management, the authors present the Quantitative Global Risk Analysis method (GRAq), a quantitative variant of GRA method based on the probabilistic representation of risk, decision and funding assessment processes. GRA is the name given by its author to the up-to-date PRA method which after several changes of the initial process covers a broader perimeter of analysis and management both at the level of structural and functional risks of any kind throughout the system life cycle, from the study of its feasibility to its dismantling. The invariants of GRA and GRAq are detailed with emphasis on the specificities of the quantitative approach. |
| Date: | 2014–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01109059&r=all |
| By: | Sylvain Benoit (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS); Jean-Edouard Colliard (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - CNRS - GROUPE HEC); Christophe Hurlin (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS); Christophe Pérignon (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - CNRS - GROUPE HEC) |
| Abstract: | We review the extensive literature on systemic risk and connect it to the current regulatory debate. While we take stock of the achievements of this rapidly growing field, we identify a gap between two main approaches. The first one studies different sources of systemic risk in isolation, uses confidential data, and inspires targeted but complex regulatory tools. The second approach uses market data to produce global measures which are not directly connected to any particular theory, but could support a more efficient regulation. Bridging this gap will require encompassing theoretical models and improved data disclosure. |
| Date: | 2015–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01142014&r=all |
| By: | Beltratti, Andrea (Bocconi University); Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | From 2010 to 2012, the relation between bank stock returns from European Union (EU) countries and the returns on sovereign CDS of peripheral (GIIPS) countries is negative. We use days with tail sovereign CDS returns of peripheral countries to identify the effects of shocks to the cost of borrowing of these countries on EU banks from other countries. A CDS tail return affects banks with greater exposure to the country experiencing that return more, but it has an impact on banks regardless of exposure. Shocks to peripheral countries that are more pervasive impact the returns of banks from countries that experience no shock more than shocks to small individual peripheral countries. In general, the impact of tail returns is asymmetric in that banks suffer less from adverse shocks to peripheral countries than they gain from favourable shocks to such countries. |
| JEL: | F34 G12 G15 G21 H63 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-06&r=all |
| By: | Léa Toulemon (ECON - Département d'économie - Sciences Po); Laurent Davezies (ECON - Département d'économie - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of reimbursement rates on health expenditures, using a natural experiment. For historical reasons, reimbursement rates of public health insurance are higher in the French region Alsace Moselle than in other French regions. For both systems, affiliation is compulsory. Individuals moving between Alsace-Moselle and the rest of France undergo an exogenous change in reimbursement rates. We use a difference-in-difference method on a panel datasets of individuals. Our treatment group consists of individuals changing systems, our control group consists of individuals who move between other French regions. We study the impact of reimbursement rates on a broad range of health care expenditures: for dentist and doctor visits, drug consumption, and sickness absenteeism. We find heterogeneous impacts of reimbursement rates on those items. Overall, higher public reimbursement rates do not lead to an increase in spending for medical care. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01121272&r=all |
| By: | Nafis, Sadat |
| Abstract: | In the current state of the economy, securities and trade flows between countries exist fluently, however, such channels of flow do not completely map one-to-one without some attenuation, thereby preventing the notion of complete financial markets. This paper develops the econometric framework to identify the parameter which measures the degree of (imperfect) international risk-sharing, and employs nonlinear econometric methods to estimate for the values of the parameter across European countries. Our findings show how simple econometric methods can give a sensible measure of this risk-sharing, which can be used as a basis for economic model calibrations when solving DSGE models. Moreover, this paper lays the groundwork for the possibility of implementing further sophisticated nonlinear estimations to improve upon the measures already computed. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics, monetary economics, nonlinear econometrics |
| JEL: | C5 E00 |
| Date: | 2015–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66283&r=all |
| By: | Ying Hu (IRMAR - Institut de Recherche Mathématique de Rennes - Université de Rennes II - Haute Bretagne - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - CNRS); Hanqing Jin (University of Oxford [Oxford]); Xun Yu Zhou (University of Oxford [Oxford]) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we continue our study on a general time-inconsistent stochastic linear--quadratic (LQ) control problem originally formulated in [6]. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for equilibrium controls via a flow of forward--backward stochastic differential equations. When the state is one dimensional and the coefficients in the problem are all deterministic, we prove that the explicit equilibrium control constructed in \cite{HJZ} is indeed unique. Our proof is based on the derived equivalent condition for equilibria as well as a stochastic version of the Lebesgue differentiation theorem. Finally, we show that the equilibrium strategy is unique for a mean--variance portfolio selection model in a complete financial market where the risk-free rate is a deterministic function of time but all the other market parameters are possibly stochastic processes. |
| Date: | 2015–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01139343&r=all |
| By: | Bertrand Laporte (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Celine De Quatrebarbes (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI) |
| Abstract: | Governments that lack the capacity to mine resources themselves have to attract foreign direct investment. However, since resources are not renewable, countries need to capture a ‘fair’ share of mineral resource rent to promote their development. While the third raw materials super cycle increased the global turnover of the mining sector by a factor of 4.6 between 2002 and 2010, the tax revenues from the non-renewable natural resource sector earned by African governments only grew by a factor of 1.15. The sharing of mineral resource rent between governments and investors is often criticised for being unfavourable to African governments. But what do we really know about the mineral resource rent sharing in Africa? The aim of this study is to review theoretical and empirical studies on rent sharing in Africa and note their limits for the knowledge of the actual mineral rent sharing. |
| Date: | 2015–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01146261&r=all |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Dobrolyubova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ludmila, Tatarinova (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Schukina, T. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Author's review of international experience of material incentives in the civil service and the results of the study practice material incentives for civil servants at federal and regional level are presented. On the basis of generalization of data of federal executive bodies and subjects of the Russian Federation with regard to the practice of developed foreign countries authors formed proposals on various methods of material incentives in the civil service. Particular attention is paid to the relationship of wages of civil servants and effectiveness of their professional performance. |
| Keywords: | material incentives, civil service, civil servants, wages |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:madd4&r=all |
| By: | Bel, François; Lacroix, Anne; Lyser, Sandrine; Rambonilaza, Tina; Turpin, Nadine |
| Abstract: | Tourism has the potential to make a major contribution to the development of rural areas. However, empirical evidence suggests that its economic impact is limited, because rural visitors are thought to engage in few recreational activities and are seen as low spenders. This study gives new insights into the domestic demand in areas of France described as “rural”, with data extracted from the national database provided by the French “tourism demand survey”. The results of the “activity-based segmentation” of visitors' stays in three rural regions show that during the summer season, visits to friends or relatives, which involve little expenditure and no specific activities, continue to take place. However, more expensive stays are the most common. They involve activities aimed at experiencing the outdoors or enjoying local sights, based on natural and cultural amenities that are mainly located in regional natural parks. The main forms of accommodation are campsites and rural cottages. Gastronomic tourism has also emerged as an activity that attracts higher spending visitors. These findings are discussed in relation to the results of segmentation studies in other European countries. Their academic and management implications also are presented. |
| Keywords: | domestic tourism; France; rural destinations; activity-based segmentation; amenities |
| JEL: | L83 Q26 R12 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66255&r=all |
| By: | Nadav Ben Zeev (BGU) |
| Keywords: | business cycles; investment-specific technology; news shocks; boom-bust period |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:1501&r=all |
| By: | Rémi Mencarelli (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - Université de Savoie); Arnaud Riviere (CERMAT - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en MAnagement de Touraine - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Tours) |
| Abstract: | The participation of the customer in a self-service technologies context. An approach by the perceived value Firms develop many technological devices allowing consumers to produce services (Self-Service Technologies - SST). However, by substituting themselves for employees, the participation of buyers in the servuction process can affect their consumer experience. Having stressed the potential contributions of the notion of perceived value, a qualitative study is carried out and allows identifying the sources of creation and destruction of value of an SST. These have both similarities and specificities with the perceived value of traditional services. |
| Abstract: | Les entreprises développent massivement les dispositifs technologiques permettant aux consommateurs de produire des offres de services (Self-Service Technologies – SST). Cependant, en se substituant aux employés de l’organisation, la participation active de l’acheteur dans le processus de servuction n’est pas sans effet sur son expérience de consommation. Après avoir mis en avant les apports potentiels d’une approche par la valeur perçue, une étude qualitative identifie les sources de création et de destruction de valeur des SST. Ces dernières présentent à la fois des similarités et des spécificités par rapport aux éléments de valorisation des services traditionnels. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01153113&r=all |
| By: | Cláudia Duarte |
| Abstract: | Unit root tests typically suer from low power in small samples, which results in not rejecting the null hypothesis as often as they should. This paper tries to tackle this issue by assessing whether it is possible to improve the power performance of covariate-augmented unit root tests, namely the ADF family of tests, by exploiting mixed-frequency data. We use the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to deal with mixed-frequency data. The results from a Monte Carlo exercise indicate that mixed-frequency tests have better power performance than low-frequency tests. The gains from exploiting mixed-frequency data are greater for near-integrated variables. An empirical illustration using the US unemployment rate is presented. |
| JEL: | C12 C15 C22 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201507&r=all |
| By: | Paulo Júlio; Ricardo Mourinho Félix; Gabriela Lopes de Castro; José R. Maria |
| Abstract: | We define "financial fragmentation shocks" as fluctuations in credit market frictions in a small euro area economy. The shock changes the financial integration status quo of the monetary union, given its negligible international spillover. An increase in credit market frictions triggers a recession in the small economy. Perfect competition and the absence of nominal rigidities attenuate output volatility. Expectations also matter: real impacts weaken when long fragmentation time spans are perceived to be short lived. Contrarily to ""risk shocks", defined as fluctuations in borrowers' riskiness, fragmentation shocks do not imply strongly countercyclical bankruptcy rates. The results are based on PESSOA, a general equilibrium model with a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. |
| JEL: | E27 E44 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201508&r=all |
| By: | Kim Draper (Centre for Development and Enterprise); Nic Spaull (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | The ability to read for meaning and pleasure is arguably the most important skill children learn in primary school. One integral component of learning to read is Oral Reading Fluency (ORF), defined as the ability to read text quickly, accurately, and with meaningful expression. Although widely acknowledged in the literature as important, to date there have been no large-scale studies on ORF in English in South Africa, despite this being the language of learning and teaching for 90% of students from Grade 4 onwards. As part of the National Education and Evaluation Development Unit (NEEDU) of South Africa, we collected and here analyze data on 4667 grade 5 English Second Language (ESL) students from 214 schools across rural areas in South Africa. This included ORF and comprehension measures for a subset of 1772 students. We find that 41% of the sample were non-readers in English (<40WCPM) and only 6% achieved comprehension scores above 60%. By calibrating comprehension levels and WCPM rates we develop tentative benchmarks and argue that a range of 90-100 WCPM in English is acceptable for grade 5 ESL students in South Africa. In addition we outline policy priorities for remedying the reading crisis in the country. |
| Keywords: | Oral reading fluency, ESL, South Africa, NEEDU, WCPM |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers241&r=all |
| By: | Breitschopf, Barbara |
| Abstract: | In the framework of the research project (Gretchen) financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the impact of German policies on industry structure and technological change is investigated. As the quantitative impact analysis of German policies on technologies and structures is complex and requires a comprehensive approach, this paper focuses on a selected part of the analysis: It explores and discusses the possibilities of how to quantify and operationalize German policies addressing photovoltaic electricity generation. This is done for the case of PV. The impact analysis of the policies will be discussed in a separate paper. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s62015&r=all |
| By: | Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Wickens, Michael R.; Xu, Yongdeng |
| Abstract: | Indirect Inference has been found to have much greater power than the Likelihood Ratio in small samples for testing DSGE models. We look at asymptotic and large sample properties of these tests to understand why this might be the case. We find that the power of the LR test is undermined when re-estimation of the error parameters is permitted; this offsets the effect of the falseness of structural parameters on the overall forecast error. Even when the two tests are done on a like-for-like basis Indirect Inference has more power because it uses the distribution restricted by the DSGE model being tested. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model; error processes; indirect inference; likelihood ratio; structural parameters |
| JEL: | C12 C32 C52 E1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10765&r=all |
| By: | Arnold, Marc; Westermann, Ramona |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of debt renegotiation outside corporate distress on renegotiation patterns, corporate policies, and firm value. We study a structural model of a levered firm that can renegotiate covenant protected debt at investment and upon corporate distress. Renegotiation at investment reduces the agency costs of debt because it induces a firm value maximizing investment financing policy and mitigates the overinvestment problem. Incorporating renegotiation outside corporate distress is crucial to explain empirical frequency patterns of debt renegotiation and the relation between observed covenant structures and firm characteristics. It also offers a rich set of novel empirical predictions. |
| Keywords: | Debt Covenants, Corporate Investment, Renegotiation, Capital Structure |
| JEL: | D92 E44 G12 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:14&r=all |
| By: | Ramón E. López; Eugenio Figueroa B.; Pablo Gutiérrez C. |
| Abstract: | Most previous studies of income inequality have either ignored capital gains or have used taxable realized capital gains to estimate top incomes. Neither of these approaches is fully satisfactory. We apply for the first time a new methodology that allows us to account for fundamental accrued capital gains as part of the top incomes in a theoretically consistent manner. We estimate the shares of the superrich in Chile showing that accrued capital gains have a dramatic impact on these estimates. Also, the top income shares estimated using fundamental capital gains appear to exhibit a more stable and presumably more plausible time profile than estimates based on capital gains derived from asset market variations. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp409&r=all |
| By: | Verani, Stephane (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | Which financial frictions matter in the aggregate? This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance a firm with a long-term contract. The contract is constrained efficient because firm revenue is costly to monitor and entrepreneurs may default. The cost of monitoring firms and the entrepreneurs' outside options determine the significance of moral hazard relative to limited enforcement for financial contracting. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, I find that the relative welfare loss from financial frictions is about 5 percent in terms of aggregate consumption with moral hazard, while it is 1 percent with limited enforcement. Reforms designed to strengthen contract enforcement increase aggregate consumption in the short-run, but their long-run effects are modest when monitoring costs are high. Weak contract enforcement contributes to aggregate fluctuations by amplifying the effect of aggregate technological shocks, but moral hazard does not. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; financial contracting; financial development; firm dynamics; limited enforcement; private information |
| JEL: | D82 E32 G32 L14 |
| Date: | 2015–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-63&r=all |
| By: | Abbassi, Puriya; Fecht, Falko; Tischer, Johannes |
| Abstract: | We study the intraday interest rate in a CCP-based GC pooling repo market and its key determinants. Since collateral used in this market is identical to collateral eligible for the daylight overdraft facility of the Eurosystem, any intraday rate in this market cannot be a result of collateral constraints keeping banks from using the overdraft for arbitrage. Nevertheless, we find that in the crisis period a statistically and economically significant intraday spread (up to 60 basis points) prevailed that was only somewhat mitigated by the ECB's unconventional monetary policy measures. Our results show that this spread was mainly determined by the market liquidity of the repo market, suggesting that the intraday spread is largely a liquidity premium. |
| Keywords: | intraday interest rate,central counterparty,overnight repos,central bank intervention,financial crisis |
| JEL: | E43 E50 G01 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:242015&r=all |
| By: | Victor Ginsburgh; Jacques Melitz; Farid Toubal |
| Abstract: | The paper is devoted to an econometric analysis of learning foreign languages in all parts of the world. Our sample covers 193 countries and 13 important languages. Four factors significantly explain learning: the world population of native speakers of the home language, literacy, trade with foreign speakers of the target language, and the linguistic distance between the home language and this foreign language. All four factors affect the broad decision to learn but the last two also point to the choice of the particular language to learn. The world population of speakers of the native language discourages learning in general while literacy promotes it in general. Trade with speakers of a specific target language prompts learning of that specific language while the linguistic distance between the home and the foreign language discourages learning of the language. Trade may well deserve more emphasis than the other three factors, not only for its high significance, but also because its direction can change faster and by a larger order of magnitude. Controlling for individual acquired languages, including English, is of no particular importance. |
| JEL: | F10 F20 Z00 J00 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1501&r=all |
| By: | Foley-Fisher, Nathan (Federal Reserve Board); Ramcharan, Rodney (University of Southern California); Yu, Edison (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financing constraints. It focuses on the Federal Reserve’s maturity extension program (MEP), which was intended to lower longer-term rates and flatten the yield curve by reducing the supply of long-term government debt. Consistent with those models that emphasize bond market segmentation and limits to arbitrage, around the MEP’s announcement, stock prices rose most sharply for those firms that are more dependent on longer-term debt. These firms also issued more long-term debt during the MEP and expanded employment and investment. These responses are most pronounced for those firms with stronger balance sheets. There is also evidence of “reach for yield” behavior among some institutional investors, as the demand for riskier debt also rose during the MEP. Our results suggest that unconventional monetary policy may have helped to relax financing constraints and stimulate economic activity in part by affecting the pricing of risk in the bond market. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative easing; Unconventional monetary policy; Preferred habitat; Financial constraints |
| JEL: | E5 G3 |
| Date: | 2015–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:15-30&r=all |
| By: | Fındık, Derya; Tansel, Aysit |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyzes the effect of intangible investment on firm efficiency with an emphasis on its software component. Stochastic production frontier approach is used to simultaneously estimate the production function and the determinants of technical efficiency in the software intensive manufacturing firms in Turkey for the period 2003-2007. Firms are classified based on the technology group. High technology and low technology firms are estimated separately in order to reveal differentials in their firm efficiency. The results show that the effect of software investment on firm efficiency is larger in high technology firms which operate in areas such as chemicals, electricity, and machinery as compared to that of the low technology firms which operate in areas such as textiles, food, paper, and unclassified manufacturing. Further, among the high technology firms, the effect of the software investment is smaller than the effect of research and development personnel expenditure. This result shows that the presence of R&D personnel is more important than the software investment for software intensive manufacturing firms in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Intangible assets, Software investment, Efficiency, Software intensive firms, Stochastic frontier analysis, Production Function, Firms, Turkey. |
| JEL: | L21 L22 L23 L25 |
| Date: | 2013–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66165&r=all |
| By: | Sandrine Mathy (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | The stakes for poverty alleviation and the measures required to avoid unbridled climate change are inextricably linked: climate change will slow down and may even reverse trends in poverty reduction while trajectories consistent with a 2°C limitation of climate warming require that strategies for poverty alleviation integrate the constraint of low carbon development. Until now, existing climate funds have failed in targeting poverty alleviation as a high priority strategy for adaptation or as a component of low carbon development. The article proposes the creation of a financing window within the Green Climate Fund focusing on synergies between poverty alleviation, adaptation and mitigation. This financial mechanism is based on indicators of satisfaction of basic needs. It could offer an answer to developing countries that consider poverty alleviation as their first priority. |
| Abstract: | Les enjeux de réduction de la pauvreté sont liés de manière inextricable aux enjeux du changement climatique : celui-ci risque de ralentir, voire d'inverser, la courbe de réduction de la pauvreté, mais les trajectoires d'émissions compatibles avec une limitation à 2 °C du réchauffement sont telles que la sortie de la pauvreté devra se faire en intégrant la contrainte d'un développement bas carbone. Or, jusqu'à présent, les différents fonds climat existants ont échoué à proposer des réponses concrètes pour cibler la sortie de la pauvreté comme politique d'adaptation prioritaire ou selon des modalités contribuant à des trajectoires bas carbone. Pour répondre à ce manque, le Fonds Vert Climat pourrait créer une fenêtre de financement pauvreté-adaptation-atténuation dédiée à la mise en œuvre de synergies ciblant une amélioration de la satisfaction de besoins fondamentaux et intégrant les deux dimensions adaptation et atténuation. Ce mécanisme de soutien, basé sur des indicateurs de satisfaction de besoins fondamentaux, pourrait constituer un élément de réponse aux pays en développement qui font de l'élimination de la pauvreté leur priorité absolue. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01168158&r=all |
| By: | Simone BERTOLI (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Jesús FERNÁNDEZ-HUERTAS MORAGA (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid [Madrid]] Universidad Autonoma de Madrid [Madrid - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid - Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | The scale of international migration flows depends on moving costs that are, in turn, influenced by host-country policies and by the size of migrant networks at destination. This paper estimates the influence of visa policies and networks upon bilateral migration flows to multiple destinations. We rely on a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator to derive estimates that are consistent under more general distributional assumptions on the underlying RUM model than the ones commonly adopted in the literature. We derive bounds for the estimated direct and indirect effects of visa policies and networks that reflect the uncertainty connected to the use of aggregate data, and we show that bilateral migration flows can be highly sensitive to the immigration policies set by other destination countries, an externality that we are able to quantify. |
| Date: | 2015–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01099863&r=all |
| By: | Fedotenkov, Igor |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an explanation of why population ageing is associated with deflationary processes. For this reason, we create an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. In other words, we combine a neoclassical OLG model, with post-Keynesian monetary theory. The model links demographic factors, such as fertility rates and longevity, to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to a smaller demand for credits, and lower money creation, which causes a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices via real savings and capital market. Furthermore, we address a few links between interest rates and inflation, which arise in the general equilibrium, and are not thoroughly discussed in the literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics is simulated numerically. |
| Keywords: | Population ageing, inflation, OLG model, inside money, credits |
| JEL: | E12 E31 J10 |
| Date: | 2015–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66056&r=all |
| By: | Agarwal, Vikas; Ruenzi, Stefan; Weigert, Florian |
| Abstract: | We develop a new tail risk measure for hedge funds to examine the impact of tail risk on fund performance and to identify the sources of tail risk. We find that tail risk affects the cross-sectional variation in fund returns, and investments in both, tailsensitive stocks as well as options, drive tail risk. Moreover, managerial incentives and discretion as well as exposure to funding liquidity shocks are important determinants of tail risk. We find evidence that is consistent with funds being able to time tail risk exposure prior to the recent financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Hedge Funds,Tail Risk,Portfolio Holdings,Funding Liquidity Risk |
| JEL: | G11 G23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1507&r=all |
| By: | Zhen Zhu; Greg Morrison; Michelangelo Puliga; Alessandro Chessa; Massimo Riccaboni |
| Abstract: | International trade has been increasingly organized in the form of global value chains (GVCs) where different stages of production are located in different countries. This recent phenomenon has substantial consequences for both trade policy design at the national or regional level and business decision making at the firm level. In this paper, we provide a new method for comparing GVCs across countries and over time. First, we use the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to construct both the upstream and downstream global value networks, where the nodes are individual sectors in different countries and the links are the value-added contribution relationships. Second, we introduce a network-based measure of node similarity to compare the GVCs between any pair of countries for each sector and each year available in the WIOD. Our network-based similarity is a better measure for node comparison than the existing ones because it takes into account all the direct and indirect relationships between country-sector pairs, is applicable to both directed and weighted networks with self-loops, and takes into account externally defined node attributes. As a result, our measure of similarity reveals the most intensive interactions among the GVCs across countries and over time. From 1995 to 2011, the average similarity between sectors and countries have clear increasing trends, which are temporarily interrupted by the recent economic crisis. This measure of the similarity of GVCs provides quantitative answers to important questions about dependency, sustainability, risk, and competition in the global production system. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04392&r=all |
| By: | Guerra, Alice; Hlobil, Tobias M. |
| Abstract: | Traditional economic models of accident law are static and assume homogeneous individuals under perfect information. This paper relaxes these assumptions and presents a dynamic unilateral accident model in which potential injurers differ in their probability of accident. Information about individual risk-type is hidden from the social planner and from each potential injurer. We ask how negligence standards should be optimally tailored to individual risk-type when this is imperfectly observable. We argue that information about past accident experiences helps to efficiently define negligence standards, narrowing the distance between first-best standards perfectly tailored to individual risk-type and third-best averaged standards. We finally show that negligence standards refined on the basis of past accident experiences and of individual risk-type do not undermine private incentives to undertake due care. |
| Keywords: | accident law, individualized negligence standards, negligence, bayesian updating rule |
| JEL: | K10 K13 |
| Date: | 2015–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66281&r=all |
| By: | Marcel Boyer; Rachidi Kotchoni |
| Abstract: | The estimation of cartel overcharges lies at the heart of antitrust policy on cartel prosecution as it constitutes a key element in the determination of fines. Connor and Lande (2008) conducted a survey of cartels and found a mean overcharge estimate in the range of 31% to 49%. By examining more sources, Connor (2010) finds a mean of 50.4% for successful cartels. However, the data used in those studies are estimates obtained from different methodologies, sources and contexts rather than from direct observations. Therefore, these data are subject to model error, estimation error, endogeneity bias, and publication bias. An examination of the Connor database reveals that the universe of overcharge estimate is asymmetric, heterogenous and contains a number of influential observations. Beside the fact that overcharge estimates are potentially biased, fitting a linear regression model to the data without providing a carefull treatment of the problems raised above may produce distorted results. We conduct a meta-analysis of cartel overcharge estimates in the spirit of Connor and Bolotova (2006) while providing a sound treatment of these matters. We find bias-corrected mean and median overcharge estimates of 15.47% and 16.01%. Clearly, our results have significant antitrust policy implications. L’estimation des surprix des cartels est au coeur de la politique de lutte aux cartels car elle est un élément clé de la détermination des pénalités. Connor et Lande (2008) survolent la litérature sur les majorations de prix des cartels et concluent à une augmentation moyenne variant entre 31% et 49%. Considérant un échantillon plus grand, Connor (2010) trouve une moyenne de 50,4% pour les cartels réussis. Cependant, les données utilisées dans ces études sont des estimations obtenues à partir de méthodologies, sources, et contextes différents plutôt que d’observations directes. De ce fait, ces données héritent potentiellement d’erreurs de modélisation et d’estimation, ainsi que de biais d'endogenéité et de publication. L’analyse directe des surprix dans l’échantillon de Connor révèle une distribution asymétrique, une importante hétérogénéité et la présence d’observations aberrantes. Au-delà du fait que les estimations des surprix sont potentiellement biaisées, l’estimation d’un modèle de régression linéaire avec de telles données sans un traitement adéquat des problèmes identifiés ci-dessus pourait produire des résultats fallacieux. Nous présentons une méta-analyse dans l’esprit de Connor and Bolotova (2006), mais qui tient compte adéquatement des problèmes mentionnés ci-dessus. Après correction des biais, nous obtenons une moyenne et une médiane de majorations de prix de l’ordre de 15,47% et 16,01%. Nos résultats débouchent sur des enjeux importants en matière de politique de la concurrence. |
| Keywords: | Antitrust, Cartel overcharges, Heckman, Heckit, Kullback-Leibler divergence, Meta-analysis, Antitrust, Surprix de cartel, Heckman, Heckit, Divergence de Kullback-Leibler, Meta-analyse |
| Date: | 2015–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-37&r=all |
| By: | Catherine Araujo Bonjean (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Jean-François Brun (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to explore the channels of transmission of the fluctuations in the world price of cocoa to the consumer of chocolate bars in France. This case study can be considered as an illustration of a more general pattern of asymmetric vertical price transmission in the commodity-final product chain. Two types of asymmetry are suspected: asymmetry in the transmission of positive and negative shocks that may reflect non-competitive behavior in the chocolate industry and asymmetry in the transmission of small and large shocks that may be due to adjustment costs. These hypotheses are tested using a three-regime error correction model. Results show that adjustment costs in the processing, manufacturing and distribution of the chocolate tablet are important. Moreover, increases in the cocoa price are more fully and rapidly transmitted to consumers than decreases. These findings may be interpreted as the manifestation of the market power of chocolate companies. |
| Date: | 2014–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01074157&r=all |
| By: | Luís Fonseca; Matteo Crosignani; Miguel Faria-e-Castro |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of unconventional monetary policy, in the form of collateralized lending to banks, on sovereign borrowing costs. Using our unique dataset on monthly security- and bank-level holdings of government bonds, we document that Portuguese banks increased their holdings of domestic public debt during the allotment of the three year Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) of the European Central Bank. We argue that domestic banks engaged in a "collateral trade", which involved the purchase of high-yield bonds with short maturities that could be pledged as collateral for low cost and long-term borrowing from the ECB. This significant increase in bond holdings was concentrated in shorter maturities, as these were especially suited to mitigate funding liquidity risk. The resulting steepening of the sovereign yield curve and the timing and characteristics of government bond auctions are consistent with a strategic response by the debt management agency. |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E63 G21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201509&r=all |
| By: | Mazumder, Bhashkar (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | Ideal estimates of the intergenerational elasticity (IGE) in income require a large panel of income data covering the entire working lifetimes for two generations. Previous studies have demonstrated that using short panels and covering only certain portions of the life cycle can lead to considerable bias. A recent influential study by Chetty et al. (2014) using tax data estimates the IGE in family income for the entire U.S. to be 0.344, considerably lower than most previous estimates. Despite the seeming advantages of extremely large samples of administrative tax data, I demonstrate that the age structure and limited panel dimension of the data used by Chetty et al leads to considerable downward bias in estimating the IGE. Specifically I use Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) samples that overcome the data limitations in the tax data to estimate the IGE when using long time averages centered around age 40 in both generations. I demonstrate how imposing the data limitations in Chetty et al (2014) lead to considerable downward bias relative to these preferred estimates. I further demonstrate that the sensitivity checks in Chetty et al regarding the age at which children’s income is measured and the length of the time average of parent income used to estimate the IGE are also flawed due to these data limitations. The lack of robustness of the IGE to the treatment of years of zero earnings among children found by Chetty et al is also largely due to data limitations. Estimates of the rank-rank slope on the other hand are much less downward biased and tend to be more robust to the limitations of the tax data. Nevertheless, researchers should continue to use both the IGE and rank based measures depending on which concept of mobility they wish to address. Substantively, I find that the IGE in family income in the U.S. is likely greater than 0.6 and that the rank-rank slope is 0.4 or higher. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational; taxation |
| JEL: | E2 H2 H24 J6 |
| Date: | 2015–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2015-04&r=all |
| By: | Sandro Claudio Lera; Didier Sornette |
| Abstract: | We study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. Within the general framework built on geometric Brownian motions (GBM), the first-order effect of such a steric constraint would enter a priori in the form of a repulsive entropic force associated with the paths crossing the barrier that are forbidden. It turns out that this naive theory is proved empirically to be completely mistaken. The clue is to realise that the random walk nature of financial prices results from the continuous anticipations of traders about future opportunities, whose aggregate actions translate into an approximate efficient market with almost no arbitrage opportunities. With the Swiss National Bank stated commitment to enforce the barrier, traders's anticipation of this action leads to a volatility of the exchange rate that depends on the distance to the barrier. This effect described by Krugman's model is supported by non-parametric measurements of the conditional drift and volatility from the data. Despite the obvious differences between "brainless" physical Brownian motions and complex financial Brownian motions resulting from the aggregated investments of anticipating agents, we show that the two systems can be described with the same mathematics after all. Using a recently proposed extended analogy in terms of a colloidal Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of molecules associated with the underlying order book, we derive that, close to the restricting boundary, the dynamics of both systems is described by a stochastic differential equation with a very small constant drift and a linear diffusion coefficient. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04754&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Jinxian; Van Vliet, Olaf; Goudswaard, Kees |
| Abstract: | A number of studies suggest that the Europeanization process has a profound impact on national labour market policies, but fairly little research has been devoted to the development of social assistance benefit schemes across countries and over time. Relying on two new indicators, benefit levels and replacement rates, we examine the impact of the Lisbon Strategy on national social assistance policies. We find no robust effects for the first years of the Lisbon Strategy. However, after its re-launch in 2005, the Lisbon Strategy has significantly contributed to increases of national social assistance benefit levels. In addition to the Lisbon Strategy, domestic political, institutional and several economic factors also have a significant impact on social assistance benefits. |
| Keywords: | social assistance benefit replacement rates, open method of coordination, Lisbon Strategy, Europeanization, welfare state reform |
| JEL: | H53 H55 I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66147&r=all |
| By: | Pedro Bordalo; Andrei Shleifer |
| Abstract: | We present a model of market competition in which consumers? attention is drawn to the products? most salient attributes. Firms compete for consumer attention via their choices of quality and price. Strategic positioning of a product affects how all other products are perceived. With this attention externality, depending on the cost of producing quality some markets exhibit ?commoditized? price salient equilibria, while others exhibit ?de-commoditized? quality salient equilibria. When the costs of quality change, innovation can lead to radical shifts in markets, as in the case of decommoditization of the coffee market by Starbucks. In the context of financial innovation, the model generates the phenomenon of ?reaching for yield?. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:312541&r=all |
| By: | ZEW |
| Abstract: | The project 'Effective tax rates in an enlarged European Union' is based on the methodology used for the calculation of effective tax rates (ETRs) as set out by Devereux and Griffith (1999, 2003). It extends the scope of the calculation of ETRs conducted under the study on effective levels of company taxation within an enlarged EU (2008). The project includes a focus on the effects of tax reforms in the EU27 for the period 1998-2013 and their impact on the level of taxation for both domestic and cross-border investment. |
| Keywords: | European Union, taxation, effective tax, corporate tax, sector |
| JEL: | H25 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0047&r=all |
| By: | Zenios, Stavros A. (University of Cyprus and University of PA) |
| Abstract: | The Cyprus debt crisis provides some unique lessons on crisis management. By the time an assistance program was agreed with the Troika, the problem had become so complex that a depositor bail-in was implemented. This was a policy first for Eurozone and is now becoming a blueprint for dealing with future banking crises. This paper examines the events for the one-year period before the two eurogroup meetings on Cyprus on 17 and 25 March 2013 and the resulting resolution of the two systemic banks of the country with depositor bail-in. We show how delays in dealing with the crisis exacerbated the problem but also how the tools brought in to solve the problem created significant adverse side effects. Available evidence questions the validity of confidential studies guiding the policy decisions on depositor haircut and argues that the implemented bail-in violated international principles of fairness. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E63 F32 F34 G33 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-04&r=all |
| By: | Busch, Ramona; Koziol, Philipp; Mitrovic, Marc |
| Abstract: | We develop a macroeconomic portfolio stress test that is specifically geared towards small and medium-sized banks. We combine a credit risk stress test which simulates credit impairments via a CreditMetrics type multi-factor portfolio model with an income stress test in the form of dynamic panel data regressions. Based on a stress scenario that extends experience of the financial crisis by integrating the current low interest rate environment, we analyse the stress impact on banks' capital ratios. Our results show that savings banks and cooperative banks prove to be very resilient to macroeconomic stress, while more than 6% of our sample's credit banks "fail" the stress test, mainly due to their lack of capital. The main stress drivers prove to be credit impairments rather than other net income components. |
| Keywords: | Macro Stress Tests,Macroprudential Supervision,Small and Medium-sized Banks,Income Stress Test,Credit Risk |
| JEL: | C13 C15 G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:232015&r=all |
| By: | Epper, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Intertemporal choices are a ubiquitous part of our economic lives. Decisions about education, savings and health, all involve tradeoffs between costs and benefits materializing at different points in time. Yet, a large body of experimental evidence questions the descriptive validity of the economic benchmark model (exponential discounted utility) by documenting a series of behavioral patterns allegedly violating its key predictions. Observed discount rates typically lie far beyond market interest rates, tend to decline in time horizon and in outcome magnitude, and seem to be larger for gains than for losses. Hyperbolic preference models resolve these issues only partly: These models accommodate excessive short-run discounting, but fail to predict both outcome dependence and sign dependence. This paper demonstrates that all these “anomalies” are rationalizable without introducing exotic preferences. Instead, an interplay between liquidity constraints and income expectations is able to produce these stylized facts, even if economic agents are fully rational and have a pure rate of time preference close to the market interest rate. Liquidity-constrained agents who dislike fluctuations in the consumption path, but expect their income to rise in the near future prefer to allocate newly available cash inflows at earlier dates than their pure rate of time preference suggests. The assumptions underlying this mechanism are likely to hold for typical participants in laboratory and field experiments. Beyond that, our approach also provides an explanation for a number of phenomena which have remained largely unexplained so far, such as reasons for observed discount rates to increase in time delay, the heterogeneity of discount rates across different commodities and regions, and the co-occurrence of stationarity and dynamic inconsistency. The mechanism is easily distinguished from hyperbolic preferences and optimistic outlook, and its key predictions are retained under bounded rationality and partial asset integration. |
| Keywords: | Time Preferences, Intertemporal Choice, Hyperbolic Discounting, Magnitude Effect, Sign Effect, Stationarity, Time Inconsistency, Expectations, Liquidity Constraints |
| JEL: | D03 D84 D91 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2015:19&r=all |
| By: | David Bailey; Lisa De Propris; Jürgen Janger |
| Abstract: | This deliverable draws on the findings of all Area3 outputs and it present the project's perspecitive on how to shape and design a new industrial policy for Europe. The Europe’s 2020 Strategy clearly outlines the ambition for EU member states to pursue a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth: this means designing a the strategy that aims at achieving a socio-ecological transition by fostering economic growth as well as social development (e.g. with respect to employment, gender or cultural aspects) whilst also pushing for Europe’s green shift. To deliver the EU 2020 strategy a new definition of competitiveness needs to be considered. Aiginger et al. (2013) propose defining competitiveness as the ability to deliver beyond-GDP goals’. Competitiveness should be based on capabilities like skills, innovation, institutions, an empowering social system, and ecological ambitions. Outcomes should be defined by the achievement of ecological, social and economic goals. The new industrial policy for Europe will be underpinned by four game changers: (a) From GDP to beyond-GDP (b) A new definition of competitiveness (c) the green shift and (d) high road growth. Aiginger (2015) proposes to define industrial policy as economic policy to promote the competitiveness of a country or region, where competitiveness is defined as the ability to deliver the beyond-GDP goals. This means an industrial policy that shows leadership towards Europe’s green shift; this means not only pursuing -for instance- energy efficiency and applications of the circular economy, but that supports the conversion of the economy into a green-intensive economy with the creation of new sectors, new processes, new products and the emergence of “green gazelles”, that can deliver growth and jobs through ecological innovations. Industrial policy should foster the long-run transition, not decelerate structural change. This is a demanding challenge, given vested interests and the traditional role of governments to preserve the status quo and national champions. Refocusing on the economy’s industrial base is a necessity to anchor long term socio-economic prosperity, particularly after the experience of bubbles in financial and real estate markets. A new industrial policy for Europe should therefore pursue a balanced economy and support the transition of traditional, narrowly defined manufacturing sectors to an advanced and distributed manufacturing sector able of greater value creation, innovation and creativity. A new industrial policy for Europe should be delivered by means of a portfolio of instruments that simultaneously steer demand and supply sides to move in the same direction creating and additive effect as against a cancelling-out effect. Such portfolio needs to avoid trade-offs between technological change and growth/employment priorities. Policy changes need to provide long-run and consistent signals, which provide certainty for businesses in making long term investments and short term adjustment. Technological upgrading instrument needs to be mission-oriented programmes, compatible with existing capabilities but enabling capabilities to be diversified. Universities, investment in intangible assets, new technologies and key enabling technologies, and entrepreneurship will be crucial to secure Europe on a growth path compatible with a beyond GDP competitive agenda. |
| Keywords: | Industrial innovation, Industrial policy, Innovation, Innovation policy, Intangible assets, New technologies, Patents, Post-industrialisation, Research, SMEs, Sustainable growth |
| JEL: | L5 L52 L53 L59 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feu:wfedel:y:2015:m:8:d:0:i:9&r=all |
| By: | Deller, Steven (University of WI); Conroy, Tessa (University of WI); Tsvetkova, Alexandra (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | Manufacturing recruitment remains an important part of most state and local governments' economic development portfolio. Using a panel (2000 to 2011) of firm interstate migration data for manufacturer across the lower 48 states we model how state and local government fiscal policies influence firm migration patterns. We find that very few manufacturing firms migrate across state lines in any given year. State and local governments are attempting to recruit from a very small number of relocating manufacturers. Indeed, most firms that do relocate across state lines tend to move to neighboring states. Fiscal policies have mixed and somewhat inconsistent influence of manufacturing interstate migration patterns. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:wisagr:578&r=all |
| By: | Lu, Meng-Jou; Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan; Härdle, Karl Wolfgang; Härdle |
| Abstract: | A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multi- variate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper proposes to incorporate a state-dependent recovery rate into the con- ditional factor loading, and model them by sharing a unique common factor. The common factor governs the default rate and recovery rate simultaneously and creates their association implicitly. In accordance with Basel III, this paper shows that the tendency of default is more governed by systematic risk rather than idiosyncratic risk during a hectic period. Among the models considered, the one with random fac- tor loading and a state-dependent recovery rate turns out to be the most superior on the default prediction. |
| Keywords: | Factor Model, Conditional Factor Loading, State-Dependent Recovery Rate |
| JEL: | C38 C53 F34 G11 G17 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-042&r=all |
| By: | Kévin André (ESSEC IIES - ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | If care relationships generally emerge spontaneously in the domestic context (Noddings, 1984), some authors argue for the recognition of their importance outside the private sphere (Tronto, 2009), particularly in the context of support people in situations of dependency (Winnicott, 1970). We build on a research conducted within the French Association against Muscular dystrophies (AFM) to show how the "référents de parcours de santé" at AFM can be considered as care professionals. We discuss the conditions for the implementation of such a professionalization of care and the implications for a better integrated care. |
| Abstract: | Si les relations de care émergent généralement de manière spontanée dans le contexte domestique (Noddings, 1984), certains auteurs plaident pour la reconnaissance de leur rôle en dehors de la sphère privée (Tronto, 2009), notamment dans le contexte de la prise en charge des personnes en situation de dépendance (Winnicott, 1970). Nous nous appuyons sur une recherche menée au sein de l'Association Française contre les Myopathies (AFM) pour montrer en quoi les " référents de parcours de santé " de l'AFM peuvent être qualifiés de professionnels du care. Nous discutons des conditions qui ont permis cette professionnalisation du care et des implications pour une meilleure intégration des soins. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00967178&r=all |
| By: | Marcus Dillender (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies the effect of health insurance on workers' compensation (WC) filing for young adults by implementing a regression discontinuity design using WC medical claims data from Texas. The results suggest health insurance factors into the decision to have WC pay for discretionary care. The implied instrumental variables estimates suggest a 10 percentage point decrease in health insurance coverage increases WC bills by 15.3 percent. Despite the large impact of health insurance on the number of WC bills, the additional cost to WC at age 26 appears to be small as most of the increase comes from small bills. |
| Keywords: | Workers’ compensation, Moral hazard, Health insurance, Affordable Care Act |
| JEL: | I13 J32 J38 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:15-232&r=all |
| By: | Claudio Sardoni (Dipartimento di Scienze Sociali ed Economiche, Sapienza University of Rome (Italy).) |
| Abstract: | Many Keynesian economists focus their attention on money as a store of value as a defence from uncertainty. Many others monetary economists, also quite close to the Keynesian approach in several respects, emphasise the importance of money as standard of value and means of payment. By drawing on Hicks's and Kaldor's contributions, this paper suggests an approach in which money is characterized by its two functions of standard of value and means of payment, which are inherently connected to one another. The role of store of value, in economies with well developed financial markets, can be normally played by other assets as liquid and risk-less as money. Therefore, the demand for liquidity as a defence against uncertainty should be kept distinct from the demand for money strictly defined. |
| Keywords: | Money, Liquidity, Uncertainty, Financial Markets. |
| JEL: | E4 E5 G1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:03/15&r=all |
| By: | Jordan Mann; J. Nathan Kutz |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate the application of an algorithmic trading strategy based upon the recently developed dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) on portfolios of financial data. The method is capable of characterizing complex dynamical systems, in this case financial market dynamics, in an equation-free manner by decomposing the state of the system into low-rank terms whose temporal coefficients in time are known. By extracting key temporal coherent structures (portfolios) in its sampling window, it provides a regression to a best fit linear dynamical system, allowing for a predictive assessment of the market dynamics and informing an investment strategy. The data-driven analytics capitalizes on stock market patterns, either real or perceived, to inform buy/sell/hold investment decisions. Critical to the method is an associated learning algorithm that optimizes the sampling and prediction windows of the algorithm by discovering trading hot-spots. The underlying mathematical structure of the algorithms is rooted in methods from nonlinear dynamical systems and shows that the decomposition is an effective mathematical tool for data-driven discovery of market patterns. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04487&r=all |
| By: | Laurene Petitfour (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Xiezhe Huangfu (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Martine Audibert (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Jacky Mathonnat (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | To cope with the rising price of drugs, in 2009 the Chinese government launched a large pharmaceutical reform. Its key element is the implementation of a National Essential Medicine List, leading to a reorientation of incentives for health services providers. Health facilities are not anymore allowed to make any profit on drug sales (“zero mark-up policy”), while this used to be their main source of financing. Different compensation schemes have been implemented by the authorities. In a context of refunding of the financing structure of health care facilities, it is crucial to understand how the reform has affected –or not- health care facilities activity and efficiency. This study relies on a survey data from a sample of 30 Township Hospitals of the rural prefecture of Weifang (Shandong province). Using a two-stage procedure, it aims at assessing the THs’ technical efficiency scores and then at identifying the determinants of this efficiency. The first stage is realized with a non-parametric frontier approach, the so-called ‘partial frontier’ method, order-m to deal with the problem of dimensionality. The identification of the determinants of efficiency requires panel data models, with random individual effects. Results show that the average efficiency remains constant between 2006-09 and 2010-12, around 0.65. The most significant and robust factors of technical efficiency are the share of subsidies in the TH incomes for the first sub-period (negative effect), and the number of covered inhabitants per bed (positive effect). It suggests that drug reform hasn’t improve primary health facilities efficiency, certainly because the reform did not tackle with success the issues of the financial barriers to universal access to healthcare -out-of-pocket payments from patients-, and of the perception of quality of public healthcare. |
| Date: | 2015–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01180621&r=all |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Timothy R. Hodge (Department of Economics, Allegheny College); Gary Sands (Urban Planning Program, Wayne State University \end{minipage}); Mark Skidmore (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, and Department of Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | As the country reemerges from the real estate crisis, the City of Detroit, Michigan continues to struggle, and is currently in the midst of bankruptcy proceedings. Falling property values have led to significant reductions in property tax revenues. In addition, the rate of property tax delinquency in Detroit is 48 percent, resulting in uncollected tax revenues of about 20 percent. This high rate of tax delinquency results from a confluence of factors including limited tax enforcement, feelings of tax inequity, and failure to provide public services, all of which have contributed to a breakdown in the social contract between the City and its residents. In this paper we develop a theoretical model of the individual decision to become delinquent on one’s property tax payments. We then use detailed parcel-level data to evaluate the factors that affect both the probability that a property owner is tax delinquent and, conditional upon delinquency, the magnitude of the delinquency. Our estimates show that properties that have lower value, longer police response times, are non-homestead (non-owner occupied residential properties), have a higher statutory tax rate, have a higher assessed value relative to sales price, are owned by a financial institution or by a Detroit resident, are delinquent on water bills, and for which the probability of enforcement is low are more likely to be tax delinquent These findings can be used to inform policies targeted at improving tax compliance within the City. |
| Keywords: | property tax, delinquency, tax compliance |
| JEL: | H26 H71 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1508&r=all |
| By: | Ramirez, Miguel D. (Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that, in Chapters XXIX and XXX of Volume III of Capital, Marx develops an incisive conceptual framework in which excessive credit creation, indebtedness, and speculation play a critical and growing role in the reproduction of social capital on an extended basis; however, given the decentralized and anarchic nature of capitalist production, it does so in a highly erratic and contradictory manner which only postpones the inevitable day of reckoning. The paper also draws important parallels between Marx's analysis of debt-fuelled crises and the events leading up to the subprime debacle of 2007-08. Finally, the paper contends that had Marx lived to re-write Vols. II and III, he would have explicitly connected the expanding role of credit [which he associated with the development of capitalism] to a significant reduction in the turnover period of capital, thereby boosting the rate of surplus-value, and countering in a highly erratic and contradictory manner, the fall in the rate of profit. The growing role of credit has been ignored in the Marxian literature as an important counteracting factor to the law of the declining rate of profit. It is not mentioned at all by Marx in his famous Chp. XIV, Vol. III of Capital where he discusses other important counteracting forces, nor by Engels [in this particular context] who edited both Vols. II and III. |
| JEL: | B10 B14 B24 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:134&r=all |
| By: | Iritié, B. G. Jean-Jacques |
| Abstract: | Competitiveness clusters (or innovation clusters) are the focal point of french new industrial policy. They are based on classical cluster model and its well-known agglomeration positive externalities and on benefits of cooperation. After a brief literature review of cluster theory, we focus on the theoretical conditions under which french innovation clusters can foster production and diffusion of technological innovations. Our critical analysis points out three non-exhaustive conditions: (i) the capacity to coordinate and to incitate cooperation in R\D; (ii) the capacity to favor production and technological knowledge transfer; (iii) the capacity to promote and to keep R\D appropriation by cooperating innovators. |
| Keywords: | innovation cluster, coordination, cooperation, installed base, organisational absorptive capacity, collective appropriation. |
| JEL: | O20 O30 R10 R30 |
| Date: | 2015–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65731&r=all |
| By: | Agarwal, Vikas; Green, T. Clifton; Ren, Honglin |
| Abstract: | Hedge fund flows chase alpha, yet they also follow returns attributable to traditional and exotic risk exposures. Investors appear more cognizant of exotic risks over time, with flows increasing their relative emphasis on returns from exotic betas in recent years. Investors also discriminate between which risks warrant high fees, with flows into high-fee funds being more likely to emphasize returns arising from exotic risks. Although we find strong evidence of persistence for alpha, persistence in hedge fund returns attributable to traditional and exotic risk exposures is modest, which suggests investors would benefit from employing more sophisticated risk models when evaluating fund performance. |
| Keywords: | Hedge Funds,Investor Flows,Alpha,Alternative Beta,Exotic Beta |
| JEL: | G11 G20 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1508&r=all |
| By: | Norma B. Coe; Gopi Shah Goda; Courtney Harold Van Houtven |
| Abstract: | We examine how long-term care insurance (LTCI) affects family outcomes expected to be sensitive to LTCI, including utilization of informal care and spillover effects on children. An instrumental variables approach allows us to address the endogeneity of LTCI coverage. LTCI coverage induces less informal caregiving, suggesting the presence of intra-family moral hazard. We also find that children are less likely to co-reside or live nearby parents with LTCI and more likely to work full-time, suggesting that significant economic gains from private LTCI could accrue to the younger generation. |
| JEL: | H5 H75 I13 J12 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21483&r=all |
| By: | Nessa Winston (School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Much of the literature on sustainable communities and compact cities calls for higher density housing including multifamily dwellings. Some case studies suggest problems with such dwellings. However, rigorous comparative research on this topic has not been conducted to date. This paper draws on a high quality, comparative dataset, the European Social Survey, to analyse a) the quality of multifamily dwellings in European urban areas, b) the characteristics of residents of these dwellings, c) their life satisfaction compared with those living in detached housing and d) the relative importance of built form in explaining life satisfaction. One of the main findings from the multivariate analyses is that built form, including residing in multifamily housing, is not a statistically significant predictor of life satisfaction when you control for standard predictors of life satisfaction (e.g. health, employment and income) and housing and neighbourhood quality. |
| Keywords: | Quality of life, built form, housing density, life satisfaction, compact cities |
| Date: | 2015–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201515&r=all |
| By: | De Agostini, Paola; Hills, John; Sutherland, Holly |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distributional impacts of the changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct taxes between the UK Elections in May 2010 and in May 2015. It also looks ahead to the longer-term effects of changes and plans that were announced by the 2010-2015 Coalition government, such as the complete introduction of Universal Credit and changes to the ways benefits, pensions and tax brackets are indexed from year to year, modelling what effects these would have after five more years. It shows that the changes 2010-15 did not have a common effect on all household incomes and nor did the direct tax-benefit changes contribute to deficit reduction. In effect reductions in benefits and tax credits financed part of the cuts in direct taxes. We find that the relative extent to which the changes most favoured the rich or the poor is sensitive to a wide range of analytical choices and assumptions, but under most sets of assumptions the main gains were in the upper middle of the income distribution and the main losers were at the bottom and those close to, but not at, the very top. Across most of the distribution the impact of the changes was regressive. Looking forward to the effects that Coalition policies would have had by 2020 we find a more strongly regressive picture but with open questions about the effect of Universal Credit on those not currently receiving their entitlements to means-tested payments, and so potentially increasing some of the lowest incomes. |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em13-15&r=all |
| By: | Merlo, Antonio (Rice University); Wolpin, Kenneth I. (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the relationship among schooling, youth employment and youth crime. The framework, a multinomial discrete choice vector autoregression, provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic interactions among a youth's schooling, work and crime decisions and arrest and incarceration outcomes. We allow for observable initial conditions, unobserved heterogeneity, measurement error and missing data. We use data from the NLSY97 on black male youths starting from age 14. The estimates indicate important roles both for heterogeneity in initial conditions and for stochastic events that arise during one's youth in determining outcomes as young adults. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:15-004&r=all |
| By: | Saito, Yuta |
| Abstract: | To see the variance of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, we do an experiment described by the following steps. First, we calibrate several models with heterogeneous agents and generate aggregate time series data. Then, we estimate the elasticity in the New Keynesian Model using the data from former models. Finally, we check and compare the estimated parameters. Our main finding is that there is some possiblity of misestimating the parameter due to the differences of fiscal policy regimes and heterogeneous agents. |
| Keywords: | Policy-Variance; Heterogenous Agent Model |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66236&r=all |
| By: | Christian Gillitzer (Reserve Bank of Australia); John Simon (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | Since the introduction of inflation targeting, inflation expectations have become firmly anchored at target and there has been a flattening of the Phillips curve. These changes mean that a 'divine coincidence' between headline inflation and output gap stabilisation is less apparent than when inflation targeting was introduced. This has led some to call for a fundamental re-engineering of inflation-targeting regimes: either adopting explicit dual mandates or replacing headline inflation with a target inflation measure more closely related to domestic output gaps. We argue instead for an evolution in the practice of CPI inflation targeting. In practice, many central banks have already moved in this direction with the adoption of flexible inflation-targeting frameworks. |
| Keywords: | inflation targeting; Phillips curve; Australia |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2015-09&r=all |
| By: | Marianne Frank Hansen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM) |
| Abstract: | During the recent decade, changes in immigration flows and immigration behaviour are important sources to explain changes in the composition of the resident immigrant population with respect to duration of residence. Considering that demographic behaviour varies considerably with the length of duration, this challenges the baseline assumption of not considering duration of residence when determining future demographic flows. This working paper explains the consequences of allowing forecasted emigration of immigrants, i.e. re-emigration, to depend on duration of residence and investigates whether including this characteristic enhances projection accuracy when facing shifts in immigration structure. The propensity to re-emigrate decreases with duration of residence. Typically emigration probabilities for individuals having immigrated within the last two years lie above the average re-emigration probability, whereas the propensity to re-emigrate lies below average when duration of residence exceeds two years. Using constant emigration probabilities depending on gender, age, origin, and number of years of duration is shown to lead to an increase in the immigrant population compared to the baseline scenario omitting emigration by duration of residence. The implications with respect to projection accuracy are assessed by performing sequential within-data population projections, respectively involving and omitting duration dependant re-emigration. Finding that future shifts in immigration behaviour severely challenge projection accuracy when taking duration of residence into account, it is suggested that duration dependant emigration should be applied with caution. |
| Keywords: | duration dependendent emigration, emigration, population projection |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201306&r=all |
| By: | Synthia Kariny Silva de Santana |
| Abstract: | A ascensão de cadeias globais de valor (CGVs) nos diversos setores levanta novos desafios à análise de competitividade dos países e de suas indústrias. Este trabalho busca analisar como o complexo coureiro-calçadista se posiciona no mercado global após a reconfiguração internacional do mercado ocorrida ao longo da década de 1990 e concede atenção especial aos nichos de mercado nos quais o Brasil e seus principais competidores se inserem. The rise of global value chains (GVC) across sectors raises new challenges to the analysis of countries’ competitiveness and their industries. This paper analyzes how the leather-footwear complex is positioned in the global market after the reconfiguration of the international market occurred over 90s and pay particular attention to the network where Brazil and its main competittors fits. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2114&r=all |
| By: | Catherine McLaughlin Adam Swinburn |
| Abstract: | Employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) is the dominant source of coverage for nonelderly adults in the United States. Virtually all businesses with 200 or more workers offer coverage to at least some of their employees, whereas many small businesses do not offer it to any. An important reason employers say they offer coverage is so they can recruit and retain workers with the desired skills and experience; the most common reason for not offering it is the cost. |
| Keywords: | Health Insurance, Employees, Small Businesses, Health |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2014–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:d55aa21eed274b85b32c385e89e0205d&r=all |
| By: | Emmanuel Prados (INRIA Grenoble Rhône-Alpes / LJK Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - STEEP - CNRS - INRIA - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - CNRS - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG)); Patrick Criqui (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Constantin Ilasca (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | Global warming may be one of the greatest threats facing the human civilization. It is now widely shared that it is necessary to reduce quickly and significantly the greenhouse gas emissions to avoid uncontrolled and irreversible evolutions of climate. It has now become urgent to develop a legal instrument addressing the post-2020 period and to achieve a successful outcome in the international climate negotiations. In this paper we propose a new computational tool which provides elements of benchmarking for the climate negotiations. The model and algorithm we propose is designed on rationale elaborated by energy and climate policy experts. We detail how to estimate the parameters of the model and how this benchmarking tool could be used. |
| Abstract: | Le changement climatique est probablement l'une des plus grandes menaces à laquelle la civilisation humaine doit faire face. Il est désormais largement partagé qu'il est nécessaire de réduire rapidement et de manière très importante les émissions de gaz à effet de serre afin d'éviter un emballement irréversible du système climatique. Il est aujourd'hui urgent de développer les instruments politiques et juridiques pour la période post-2020 et de faire aboutir les négociations internationales. Dans ce rapport, nous proposons un nouvel outil permettant de calculer des courbes de références des émissions nationales de gaz à effet de serre. L'algorithme et le modèle proposés se basent sur une logique développée par des économistes spécialistes de l'énergie et du changement climatique. Nous montrons comment les paramètres du modèles peuvent être estimés et comment ces outils peuvent être utilisés. |
| Date: | 2014–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01069604&r=all |
| By: | Muravchenko, Viktor |
| Abstract: | In article the general idea about definition of concepts of a subject of "municipal service", "the municipal employee" and "a municipal position" is considered. It is adumbrated about definition of these concepts on the basis synthesis of its use in the legislation of subjects of the Russian Federation, and also in sciences of the state and municipal law. |
| Keywords: | subject, limits of a service, municipal service, municipal employee, municipal post, power, public service, local self-management, category, group. |
| JEL: | K2 K23 K3 K30 R58 |
| Date: | 2001 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66055&r=all |
| By: | Okitonyumbe Y.F., Joseph; Ulungu, Berthold E.-L.; Kapiamba Nt., Joel |
| Abstract: | Résumé : L’heuristique des économies de Clarke et Wright est le modèle de référence pour la résolution du problème classique de tournées de véhicules. Dans cet article, après l’énoncé de ce dernier problème en présence des objectifs multiples, nous ajustons judicieusement les paramètres du modèle initial dans ce nouveau contexte pour une version multi-objectif grâce à la méthode du repère préférentiel de dominance. Un exemple didactique valide cette démarche. Le principal résultat est l’obtention de tout l’ensemble des solutions efficaces E(P) mais de manière échelonnée Abstract : Economics’ heuristic of Clarke and Wright is the principle and benchmark model for solving vehicle routing problem. In this article, after presentation of the problem, we adjust initial model parameters in this new context for a multiobjeciive version. The principal result is the E(P) obtaining in his globally but in a sequential way. A didactic example is presented to illustrate the method. |
| Keywords: | Mots clés : Heuristique, Problème de tournées de distribution, Gains, Solution efficace. Key words : Efficient solution, Heuristic, Saving, Vehicle Routing Problem |
| JEL: | C61 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66173&r=all |
| By: | Hwang, Jungbin; Sun, Yixiao |
| Abstract: | This paper considers two-step efficient GMM estimation and inference where the weighting matrix and asymptotic variance matrix are based on the series long run variance estimator. We propose a simple and easy-to-implement modification to the trinity of test statistics in the two-step efficient GMM setting and show that the modified test statistics are all asymptotically F distributed under the so-called fixed-smoothing asymptotics. The modification is multiplicative and involves the J statistic for testing over-identifying restrictions. This leads to convenient asymptotic F tests that use standard F critical values. Simulation shows that, in terms of both size and power, the asymptotic F tests perform as well as the nonstandard tests proposed recently by Sun (2014b) in finite samples. But the F tests are more appealing as the critical values are readily available from standard statistical tables. Compared to the conventional chi-square tests, the F tests are as powerful, but are much more accurate in size. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Efficient GMM, F distribution, F test, Fixed-smoothing Asymptotics, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust, Two-step GMM |
| Date: | 2015–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt1c62d8xf&r=all |
| By: | Kathia Michalczewsky (LAMIH - Laboratoire d'automatique et de mécanique industrielles et humaines - CNRS - Université de Valenciennes et du Hainaut-Cambresis) |
| Abstract: | Argentina’s exports had a period of strong expansion during 2003-2008, in a context of high dynamism of world trade, stimulated by Asian economies -especially China-. Agricultural products were the ones that grew the most to these partners. But after the rebound of the crisis, the international context changed. Asian stimulus has desaccelerated and the prices of the commodities have started to fall, consequently Argentina’s exports have not been able to come back to the track of expansion that had before de crisis. In this new scenery, Argentina’s government created the Programa de Aumento y Diversificación de Exportaciones (PADEX), a plan aimed to improve the quantitative and qualitative performance of the country’s exports. The objective of this paper is to analyze if there is any tariff barriers that could block the possibilities of expand exports of a group of products –selected by measuring Argentina’s comparative advantage- to the selected partners. The results show important opportunities of rising exports of products like animal food, milk and cream, malt extract, tobacco, crustaceans and mollusks. Only a few countries of the group analyzed present relevant tariff barriers for these products. The countries with higher tariffs for Argentinian products are China, Korea and India. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and, to a lesser extent, Thailand, show greater opportunities for Argentinian products. |
| Abstract: | Las exportaciones de Argentina tuvieron una etapa de fuerte expansión entre 2003 y 2008 en un contexto de alto dinamismo del comercio mundial, impulsadas especialmente por las economías asiáticas y en particular China. Las ventas de mayor crecimiento en ese período a esos destinos fueron los productos agropecuarios. Sin embargo, luego del rebote poscrisis el contexto internacional cambió. El estímulo de Asia se desaceleró y los precios de los productos básicos comenzaron a disminuir, consecuentemente las exportaciones Argentina no lograron retomar la senda de expansión de la etapa previa. En este nuevo escenario el gobierno argentino puso en marcha el Programa de Aumento y Diversificación de Exportaciones (PADEX) que buscar mejorar el desempeño de las ventas externas tanto en términos cuantitativos como cualitativos. El presente trabajo busca analizar si existen barreras arancelarias que podrían limitar las posibilidades de incrementar los envíos a un grupo de países asiáticos seleccionados, de un conjunto de productos en los que Argentina presenta ventajas comparativas. Los resultados muestran importantes oportunidades de expansión de las exportaciones de productos como alimentos para animales, leche y crema, extracto de malta, tabaco y crustáceos y moluscos; donde solo algunos países de la muestra presentan protección arancelaria relevante. Las economías con mayores niveles tarifarios para los productos argentinos son China, Corea e India; mientras que Filipinas, Indonesia, Malasia, Vietnam, y en menor medida Tailandia, muestran oportunidades de acceso a sus mercados con bajos aranceles. |
| Date: | 2015–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01146975&r=all |
| By: | Rosenzweig, Mark R. (Yale University); Zhang, Junsen (Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | We use unique data characterizing individual savings for twins and non-twins in urban China to examine why the savings rates of the young are elevated relative to the middle-aged, despite rising individual life-cycle incomes. We show that inter-generational co-residence masks the true life-cycle patterns of individual savings in standard Chinese household data sets, which are aggregated at the household level. Moreover, we show that to understand life-cycle savings behavior it is necessary to take into account inter-generational co-residence, an important phenomenon in China and in many developing countries. To test a model that describes joint life-cycle savings and co-residence decisions by two generations, we use a variety of standard twins methods. The estimates provide support for the model, including that individuals born into larger families provide less financial support to parents and are more likely to co-reside with parents when young, but do not have different savings rates. We also found that inter-generational co-residence is lower the higher the incomes of the young but higher when the parents have higher incomes and that inter-generational co-residence, net of income, is associated with higher savings for the young but not higher savings for the old. Our results highlight the importance of high housing costs and the prevalence of inter-generational shared housing as key reasons for the higher savings rates for the urban young in China, but also indicate that in urban China neither old-age support by the young nor the one-child policy are major factors. |
| JEL: | D10 D12 D14 J12 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:131&r=all |
| By: | McLure, Charles E. (Stanford University); Mintz, Jack (University of Calgary); Zodrow, George R. (Rice University and Centre for Business Taxation, Oxford University) |
| Abstract: | In a recent unanimous decision in the PPL case, the US Supreme Court ruled that a one-time retroactive British "Windfall Tax" levied on 32 public utilities that were privatized between 1984 and 1996 was eligible for the US foreign tax credit (FTC). The Court rejected the contention of the US Internal Revenue Service that eligibility for the FTC should be governed by the legislative form of the tax rather than its economic substance. This decision could have far-reaching implications for the creditability of taxes that are not ordinarily thought to be income taxes, including various cash-flow business taxes that are key elements of several proposals recommending replacement of the income tax with a consumption-based tax. This article examines these issues, arguing that one and arguably both of the most common forms of cash flow consumption-based taxes should be creditable; it also discusses questions that remain about the interpretation of key regulatory requirements that govern creditability. |
| JEL: | H25 H80 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-010&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Martin Katz; Michael J Bommarito II; Tyler Soellinger; James Ming Chen |
| Abstract: | Do judicial decisions affect the securities markets in discernible and perhaps predictable ways? In other words, is there "law on the market" (LOTM)? This is a question that has been raised by commentators, but answered by very few in a systematic and financially rigorous manner. Using intraday data and a multiday event window, this large scale event study seeks to determine the existence, frequency and magnitude of equity market impacts flowing from Supreme Court decisions. We demonstrate that, while certainly not present in every case, "law on the market" events are fairly common. Across all cases decided by the Supreme Court of the United States between the 1999-2013 terms, we identify 79 cases where the share price of one or more publicly traded company moved in direct response to a Supreme Court decision. In the aggregate, over fifteen years, Supreme Court decisions were responsible for more than 140 billion dollars in absolute changes in wealth. Our analysis not only contributes to our understanding of the political economy of judicial decision making, but also links to the broader set of research exploring the performance in financial markets using event study methods. We conclude by exploring the informational efficiency of law as a market by highlighting the speed at which information from Supreme Court decisions is assimilated by the market. Relatively speaking, LOTM events have historically exhibited slow rates of information incorporation for affected securities. This implies a market ripe for arbitrage where an event-based trading strategy could be successful. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.05751&r=all |
| By: | Blaufus, Kay; Braune, Matthias; Hundsdoerfer, Jochen; Jacob, Martin |
| Abstract: | Previous research argues that law expresses social values and could, therefore, influence individual behavior independently of enforcement and penalization. Using three laboratory experiments on tax avoidance and evasion, we study how legality affects individuals' decisions. We find that, without any risk of negative financial consequences, the qualification of tax minimization as illegal versus legal reduces tax minimization considerably. Legislators can thus, in principle, affect subjects' decisions by defining the borderline between legality and illegality. However, once we introduce potential negative financial consequences, legality does not affect tax minimization. Only if we use moral priming to increase subjects' moral cost do we again find a legality effect on tax minimization. Overall, this demonstrates the limitations of the expressive function of law. Legality appears to be an important determinant of behavior only if we consider activities with no or low risk of negative financial consequences or if subjects are morally primed. |
| Keywords: | Expressive Law,Legality,Moral Appeals,Tax Avoidance,Tax Evasion,Real Effort Experiment |
| JEL: | M41 M48 H20 H30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201523&r=all |
| By: | Chen, Ying (Johns Hopkins University); Eraslan, Hulya (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | A party in power can address only a limited number of issues in an election cycle. What issues to address--the party's agenda--has dynamic implications because it affects what issues will be addressed in the future. What is the optimal agenda in the presence of dynamic concerns? How does a party's political strength affect its agenda? What are the efficiency implications? We address these questions in a stylized model in which the incumbent in each period addresses one issue among several issues and the remaining issues roll over to the next period. When the incumbent expects its power to strengthen or weaken, strategic manipulations can happen in the form of waiting for the moment and seizing the moment respectively. When the incumbent expects the opposition to come in power next period, strategic manipulations can happen in the form of steering and preemption. In steering, the incumbent gives priority to a less pressing issue to direct the opposition party towards addressing the most pressing issue for the incumbent. In preemption, the incumbent gives priority to the issue most pressing for the opposition to prevent the opposition from addressing it. Although preemption can still be efficient, steering is necessarily inefficient. |
| JEL: | C78 D72 D78 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:15-002&r=all |
| By: | Seabold,Skipper; Rutherford,Alex; De Backer,Olivia; Coppola,Andrea |
| Abstract: | This study uses Twitter data to provide a more nuanced understanding of the public reaction to the 2011 reform to the propane gas subsidy in El Salvador. By soliciting a small sample of manually tagged tweets, the study identifies the subject matter and sentiment of all tweets during six one-month periods over three years that concern the subsidy reform. The paper shows that such an analysis using Twitter data can provide a useful complement to existing household survey data and even potentially replace survey data if none were available. The finding show that when people tweet about the subsidy, they almost always do so in a negative manner; and there is a decline in discussion of topics about the reform subsidy, which coincides with increase in support for the subsidy as reported elsewhere. Therefore, the study concludes that decreasing discussion of the subsidy reform indicates an increase in support for the reform. In addition, the gas distributor strikes of May 2011 may have contributed to public perception of the reform more than previously acknowledged. This study is used as an opportunity to provide methodological guidance for researchers who wish to undertake similar studies, documenting the steps in the analysis pipeline with detail and noting the challenges inherent in obtaining data, classification, and inference. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,E-Business,Language&Communication,Information and Communication Technologies,Knowledge for Development |
| Date: | 2015–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7399&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Daniel Rinaudo (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Bernard Barraqué (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses the evolving role of interbasin transfers (IBT) in urban water management. After providing an historical overview of IBT development, the chapter describes how IBTs are challenged by a change in the technological and socio-economic context. The emergence of alternative technologies, such as desalination, wastewater reclamation and reuse, or managed artificial groundwater recharge is reducing the attractiveness of IBTs. Water utilities are also becoming increasingly aware that water conservation programs can save volumes of water at a much cheaper cost than IBT. Various international examples are used to show that IBTs trigger increasing concerns from communities involved or affected, in particular related to the environmental impact on donor and receiving river basins, the economic impact on donor regions, the impact on local cultures and livelihoods, how costs and benefits are distributed (social justice), and issues related to public participation. The chapter concludes by looking ahead at new and more efficient uses of existing IBTs. As conjunctive use management approaches gain support, IBTs will be operated in conjunction with aquifer storage and recovery schemes. They will probably also support the development of emerging water markets, in particular during drought years. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01183852&r=all |
| By: | Jeremiah Dittmar |
| Abstract: | This research studies how variations in competition and in media content characterized the use and impact of Gutenberg's printing press technology during the European Renaissance. The research constructs annual firm-level panel data on the publications produced by 7,000+ printing firms operating in over 300 European cities 1454-1600. Evidence on the timing of the premature deaths of firm owner-managers is used to isolate shocks to competition. Firms where owner-managers died experienced large negative shocks to output. However, at the city-level deaths of incumbent managers were associated with significant increases in entrance and with a positive and persistent impact on competition and city output. Variations in city supply induced by heterogeneous manager deaths are used to study the relationship between the diffusion of ideas in print and city growth. A uniquely strong relationship is observed between the new business education literature and local growth. This is consistent with historical research on the transformative impact business education ideas had on commercial practices and European capitalism. |
| Keywords: | Information technology, IO, media, growth, history, business education |
| JEL: | L1 N13 N33 N93 O11 O18 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1365&r=all |
| By: | Jérémy Tanguy (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Université du Maine, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | L’objectif de cet article est d’apporter une première évaluation de l’effet de la fréquence des grèves sur la productivité du travail, dans le cadre des entreprises françaises, à partir des données appariées de l’enquête REPONSE 2004-2005 et des Enquêtes Annuelles d’Entreprises – EAE. Les travaux anglo-saxons présentent des arguments théoriques contradictoires sur cette question et conduisent à des résultats empiriques contrastés. En contrôlant le biais d’hétérogénéité inobservée, à travers l’utilisation d’une approche par fonction de contrôle, nous montrons que la fréquence des grèves a un effet non- linéaire sur la productivité du travail des entreprises françaises, qui s’avère être positif et croissant jusqu’à un certain seuil, puis neutre au-delà. Nous mettons ensuite en évidence que l’effet des grèves sur la productivité du travail varie sensiblement en fonction de l’absentéisme des salariés dans l’entreprise. L’incidence de grèves peut affecter positivement et indirectement la productivité du travail, à condition de ne pas être associée à un problème d’absentéisme des salariés. A l’inverse, lorsqu’elles s’accompagnent de cette expression individuelle de conflit de la part salariés, les grèves ne présentent aucun effet sur la productivité du travail. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01100364&r=all |
| By: | Langthaler, Margarita |
| Abstract: | The increasing international interest in the Austrian dual system of apprenticeship has triggered a trend to transfer this system, or parts of it, to foreign countries including developing and transition countries. This paper analyzes the trend from a developmental perspective. After a historic outline of vocational education in international development and the discussion of current global trends in vocational education, the paper elaborates on the transfer of the dual system from a theoretical as well as an empirical perspective. It then goes on to describe the Austrian dual system of apprenticeship. In the empirical part, the paper first examines the status quo of the transfer trend as well as key players, funding possibilities, approaches, lessons of experience and challenges. Findings are subsequently analyzed from a developmental perspective. Finally, recommendations are made of how to strengthen the developmental impact. The paper concludes that while current transfer activities respond well to several criteria set out by the Austrian Development Cooperation, a number of open questions remain as to sustainability, systemic effect and economic bias, among others. |
| Keywords: | Vocational Education and Training,Dual System of Apprenticeship |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:53&r=all |
| By: | Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the extent of the transmission of financial shocks between South Africa and other members of the BRICS grouping in order to infer the degree of contagion during the period 1996-2012. The paper makes use of a multivariate VAR-DCC-GARCH model for this end. The paper finds evidence of cross-transmission and dependence between South Africa and Brazil. However, the empirical results show that South Africa is more affected by crises originating from China, India and Russia than these countries are by crises originating from South Africa. The findings of this paper should be of interest to policy makers in the BRICS grouping should they be considering the possibility of full capital market liberalization and to the international investor who is looking at diversifying portfolios in the BRICS grouping. |
| Keywords: | contagion, BRICS, VAR-DCC-GARCH |
| JEL: | C58 F36 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66262&r=all |
| By: | Gong, Xiaodong (NATSEM, University of Canberra); Gao, Jiti (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is motivated by our attempt to answer an empirical question: how is private health insurance take-up in Australia affected by the income threshold at which the Medicare Levy Surcharge (MLS) kicks in? We propose a new difference de-convolution kernel estimator for the location and size of regression discontinuities. We also propose a bootstrapping procedure for estimating confidence bands for the estimated discontinuity. Performance of the estimator is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations before it is applied to estimating the effect of the income threshold of Medicare Levy Surcharge on the take-up of private health insurance in Australia using contaminated data. |
| Keywords: | de-convolution kernel estimator, regression discontinuity, error-in-variables, demand for private health insurance |
| JEL: | C13 C14 C29 I13 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9265&r=all |
| By: | Miravete, Eugenio J; Moral Rincón, Maria J; Thurk, Jeff |
| Abstract: | Spurred by Volkswagen's introduction of the TDI diesel engine in 1989, market penetration of diesel cars in Europe increased from 10% in 1990 to over 50% in 2000. Using Spanish automobile registration data, we estimate an equilibrium discrete choice, oligopoly model of horizontally differentiated products. We find that changing product characteristics and the increasing popularity of diesels leads to correlation between observed and unobserved (to the researcher) product characteristics, an aspect we allow for in the estimation. Despite widespread imitation by its rivals, Volkswagen was able to capture 32% of the potential innovation rents and diesels accounted for approximately 60% of the firm's profits. Moreover, diesels amounted to an important competitive advantage for European auto makers over foreign imports. We provide evidence that the greenhouse emissions policy enacted by European regulators, and not preferential fuel taxes, enabled the adoption of diesels. In so doing, this non-tariff policy was equivalent to a 20% import tariff; effectively cutting imports in half. |
| Keywords: | diesel cars; emission standards; import tariff equivalence; innovation rents |
| JEL: | F13 L62 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10783&r=all |
| By: | Zuzana Smidova |
| Abstract: | Much of the convergence of the Latvian economy needs to come from productivity increases. To achieve this, policy makers should do more to facilitate the integration of the economy into global trade and promote competitive business environment. By benchmarking Latvia vis-à-vis the other Baltic but also some CEE peers, this paper identifies potential for decreasing the regulatory burden, removing trade and investment barriers and strengthening the competitive business environment as well as general framework conditions such as judiciary and access to finance. Furthermore, to ensure that knowledge transfer – essential for increasing productivity – does take place, reforms of the vocational education and training system, of lifelong learning and of policies for research and development, currently under implementation, have yet to deliver.<P>L'action publique pour accroître la productivité en Lettonie<BR>La convergence de l’économie lettone devra pour une grande part s’appuyer sur des hausses de la productivité. Pour y parvenir, les responsables de l’action publique devraient prendre des mesures supplémentaires pour faciliter l’intégration de l’économie dans le commerce mondial et favoriser la compétitivité de l’environnement des entreprises. En évaluant la Lettonie vis-à-vis des autres pays baltes mais aussi des pays d’Europe centrale, ce document identifie un potentiel pour diminuer le fardeau de la réglementation, supprimer les barrières aux échanges et à l’investissement, augmenter la concurrence sur les marchés des produits, améliorer le système judiciaire et l'accès au financement. De plus, pour assurer que le transfert de connaissances dans l’économie, qui est essentiel pour la croissance de la productivité, s’instaure, la réforme du système d’enseignement et de formation professionnels et de l'apprentissage en continu ainsi que les politiques de recherche et développement, actuellement mises en oeuvre, n’ont pas encore porté leurs fruits. |
| Keywords: | productivity, innovation, trade barriers, competition, insolvency |
| JEL: | D43 F43 K21 O38 O47 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1255-en&r=all |
| By: | Kiema, Ilkka (Labour Institute For Economic Research); Jokivuolle, Esa (Bank of Finland Research) |
| Abstract: | Concern that government may not guarantee bank deposits in a future crisis can cause a bank run. The government may break its guarantee during a severe crisis because of time-inconsistent preferences regarding the use of public resources. However, as deposits are with-drawn during the bank run, the size of the government’s liability to guarantee the remaining deposits is gradually reduced, which increases the government’s incentive to provide the promised guarantee. This in turn reduces depositors’ incentive to withdraw, which may explain why bank runs sometimes remain partial. Our model yields an endogenously determined probability and size of a partial bank run. These depend on a common signal as to the future state of the economy, the cost of liquidity provision to banks, and the government’s reputational cost of breaking the deposit guarantee. We apply the model to a multi-country deposit insurance scheme, an idea that has been aired in the context of the European Banking Union. |
| Keywords: | bank crises; information induced bank runs; deposit guarantee; bank regulation |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2015–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2015_010&r=all |
| By: | Franck Moraux (Macro-Economie et Finance - CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Florina Silaghi (Macro-Economie et Finance - CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model of debt renegotiation in a structural framework that accounts for taxes, bankruptcy costs and renegotiation costs. To our knowledge, all the previous work on debt renegotiation implies an infinite number of renegotiations. This feature preempts the analysis of the optimal number of renegotiations. We address this drawback by incorporating fixed renegotiation costs in a model of multiple renegotiations, hence obtaining a small finite number of renegotiations. Simple analytical formulae are derived for debt and equity, as well as implicit formulae for the coupon reduction, as a result of a backward recursive technique. The results show that the optimal number of renegotiations, the size and the dynamics of the coupon reductions depend critically on the bargaining power of the claimants. Testable empirical implications regarding multiple costly renegotiations are drawn |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01024229&r=all |
| By: | Dominique Meurs; Patrick A. Puhani; Friederike von Haaren |
| Abstract: | We document the educational integration of immigrant children with a focus on the link between family size and educational decisions and distinguishing particularly between first- and second-generation immigrants and between source country groups. First, for immigrant adolescents, we show family-size adjusted convergence to almost native levels of higher education track attendance from the first to the second generation of immigrants. Second, we find that reduced fertility is associated with higher educational outcomes for immigrant children, possibly through a quantity-quality trade-off. Third, we show that between one third and the complete difference in family-size adjusted educational outcomes between immigrants from different source countries or immigrant generations can be explained by parental background. This latter holds true for various immigrant groups in both France and Germany, two major European economies with distinct immigration histories. |
| Keywords: | migration, integration, quantity-quality trade-off, decomposition |
| JEL: | J13 J15 J24 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp778&r=all |
| By: | Chang, Simon (University of Western Australia); Connelly, Rachel (Bowdoin College); Ma, Ping (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the natural experiment of a large imbalance between men and women of marriageable age in Taiwan in the 1960s to test the hypothesis that higher sex ratios lead to husbands (wives) having a lower (higher) share of couple's time in leisure and higher (lower) share of the couple's total work time (employment, commuting and housework). A large sample of Taiwanese couples' time diaries from 1987, 1990, and 1994 is used. The analysis finds evidence of the predicted effects of the county-level sex ratio on husbands' and wives' share of leisure and total work time. In addition, the age difference between husbands and wives is shown to be positively correlated with heightened county-level sex ratio a result which is also consistent with the theory that marriage market participants' choices are affected by the prevailing sex ratio. |
| Keywords: | sex ratios, time use, time diaries, Taiwan, marriage markets, bargaining power |
| JEL: | J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9287&r=all |
| By: | Jane Ellis; Sara Moarif; Yoko Nobuoka; Marte Pellegrino; Jennifer Helgeson |
| Abstract: | Climate support will be an important element in reaching a post-2020 climate agreement at COP 21 in December 2015. To further increase and mobilise the levels of climate support post-2020, a number of proposals have been made in the negotiating text produced in the Geneva session of the Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in February 2015. This paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of several of these proposals, focusing on those that are clear and specific. The paper assesses proposals on mobilising climate finance using the following criteria: (i) the level of financial flows that they could generate; (ii) how much of this could be mobilised in the UNFCCC context; (iii) the ease of implementation of the proposal; (iv) if and how such increased mobilisation could be monitored; and (v) whether the proposal would fill a specific gap in the context of climate support within the UNFCCC. The paper undertakes a similar assessment for proposals in the Geneva text on enhancing the level of technology development and transfer, as well as capacity building. It discusses whether the proposals could potentially increase technology development and transfer, capacity building and development, as well as whether they are likely to do so in practice, based on current experience and ease of implementation. The proposals vary significantly in the amount of climate support they could mobilise (or enhance, in the case of technology and capacity building), for a range of reasons. These include the particular wording of the proposals, their sensitivity to national implementation, uncertainty in measuring progress towards objectives, and in some cases the limited role the UNFCCC plays as an institution in a given area of climate support.<P>Évaluation des options envisageables pour accroître le soutien en faveur de l'action climatique<BR>Le soutien en faveur de l’action climatique sera un élément important pour parvenir à un accord sur le climat pour l’après-2020 lors de la Conférence des Parties (COP21) de décembre 2015. Afin de renforcer l’appui financier et de mobiliser le niveau de soutien nécessaire à l’action climatique pour l’après-2020, un certain nombre de propositions ont été formulées dans le texte de négociation établi lors de la session du Groupe de travail spécial sur la plate-forme de Durban de la Convention-cadre des Nations unies sur les changements climatiques (CCNUCC) tenue à Genève en février 2015. Ce rapport étudie les avantages et les inconvénients de plusieurs de ces propositions, en mettant l’accent sur celles qui sont précises et spécifiques. Les auteurs évaluent les propositions portant sur la mobilisation de financements climatiques au regard des critères suivants : (i) volume des ressources financières qu’elles pourraient permettre d’obtenir ; (ii) proportion de ces ressources pouvant être mobilisée dans le cadre de la CCNUCC ; (iii) facilité de mise en oeuvre de la proposition ; (iv) possibilité de suivi de cette mobilisation supplémentaire, et modalités de ce suivi ; et (v) capacité de la proposition à combler un manque spécifique dans le contexte du soutien climatique au titre de la CCNUCC. Le rapport livre une évaluation analogue des propositions contenues dans le texte de Genève portant sur la mise au point et le transfert de technologies, ainsi que sur le renforcement des capacités. Les auteurs examinent si les propositions formulées recèlent le potentiel d’intensifier la mise au point et le transfert de technologies, le développement et le renforcement des capacités, et sont susceptibles de le faire concrètement, en fondant leur analyse sur l’expérience actuelle et la facilité de mise en oeuvre de la proposition. L’ampleur du soutien que ces propositions pourraient mobiliser (ou accroître, en ce qui concerne la technologie et le renforcement des capacités) varie considérablement selon les propositions, et ce pour différentes raisons, notamment : la formulation particulière de la proposition ; sa sensibilité à une mise en oeuvre dans un contexte national ; le degré d’incertitude qu’elle présente s’agissant de la mesure les progrès accomplis au regard des objectifs ; et, dans certains cas, le rôle limité que joue la CCNUCC, en tant qu’institution, dans un domaine donné du soutien à l’action climatique. |
| Keywords: | climate change, technology transfer, UNFCCC, 2015 agreement, climate finance, capacity building, renforcement des capacités, accord de 2015, financement climatique, CCNUCC, changement climatique, transferts de technologie |
| JEL: | F53 O19 O30 O44 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaab:2015/3-en&r=all |
| By: | BRITO, JOÃO ANTONIO |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically if the effect of social cohesion on economic growth is conditioned by country size. Two groups of countries, large and small, were set up, and by using the System-GMM estimator and panel data in a 5-year rolling window, from 1970 to 2010, the impact of civil war and ethnic tension on growth rate of GDP per capita of the two groups of states was estimated. Also, the difference between small and large states in terms of the impact of civil war and ethnic tension on β-convergence rate was analyzed. We conclude that the effects of social cohesion (measured by civil war) in economic growth and in β-convergence rate are influenced by country size, and the positive effect is higher in small states. |
| Keywords: | Country Size, Small States, Social Cohesion and Economic Growth |
| JEL: | O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66118&r=all |
| By: | Sievert, Maximiliane |
| Abstract: | One third of all women experience violence within their lifetime, most frequently perpetrated by their intimate partner (IPV). It impacts women's sexual, reproductive, and mental health, and increases the risk of chronic disease. Ways to reduce IPV are less obvious, though. Especially in rural areas, electrification is frequently said to foster women's development and contribute to a modernization of gender roles. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from rural areas in 22 Sub-Saharan countries, the present paper analyses the effect of electrification on IPV by means of pseudo-panel and propensity score matching approaches. Women in households with electricity report significantly lower acceptance of IPV. It is especially access and higher exposure to information via TV sets that causes the difference in IPV acceptance. Accordingly, rural electrification might potentially play an important role in eliminating violence against women. |
| Keywords: | rural electrification,domestic violence,intimate partner violence,pseudopanel,propensity score matching |
| JEL: | J12 J16 O13 O18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:570&r=all |
| By: | Sabiou Inoua |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explain the wild fluctuations of financial prices from the intrinsic amplifying feedback of speculative supply and demand. Formally, we show that an asset return follows a multiplicative random growth with exogenous input, which is well-known to be a generic power-law generating process, and which could thus easily explain the well-established power-law distribution of returns, and other related variables. Moreover, the theory we develop here is a general framework where competing ideas can be discussed in a unified way. The dominant random walk model, for instance, is easily derived in this framework if we superimpose market clearing (central to neoclassical economics). It corresponds to the case where the feedback in price dynamics is ignored in favor of the external input, namely the random inflow of news from the real economy. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.02203&r=all |
| By: | Carrasco Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique; Issler, João Victor |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use the standard factor models to compose common-factor portfolios by a novel linear transformation extracted from large data sets of asset returns. Although the transformation proposed here retains the basic properties of the usual common factors, some interesting new properties are further included in them. The advantages of using common-factor portfolios in asset pricing are: (i) they produce a dimension reduction in the asset- pricing data-base while preserving the usual restrictions imposed by the asset-pricing equation, and (ii) from the empirical perspective, their performance is better than those of standard factor models. The practical importance is confirmed in two applications: the performance of common-factor portfolios is shown to be superior to those of the asset returns and factors commonly used in the finance literature. |
| Keywords: | Common Factors, Common Features, CCAPM, Stochastic Discount Factor, Linear Multifactor Model. |
| JEL: | C32 E21 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66077&r=all |
| By: | Jeanne Lafortune; José Tessada; Ethan Lewis |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill using variation across U.S. counties in immigration-induced skill mix changes between 1860 and 1930. We find that capital began as a q-complement for skilled and unskilled workers, and then dramatically increased its relative complementary with skilled workers around 1890. Simulations of a parametric production function calibrated to our estimates imply the level of capital-skill complementarity after 1890 likely allowed the U.S. economy to absorb the large wave of less-skilled immigration with a modest decline in less-skilled relative wages. This would not have been possible under the older production technology. |
| JEL: | J24 N61 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21435&r=all |
| By: | Brown, Jeffrey A. (Oliver Wyman); McGourty, Brad (Oliver Wyman); Schuermann, Til (Oliver Wyman) |
| Abstract: | We trace the development of model risk management in U.S. banking against the backdrop of the growing importance of complex financial models in banks, the recognition of model risk, the emergence of model validation as a response to model risk, and the contribution of failures in model risk management to the Great Financial Crisis. We recognize that while substantial progress has been made in the management of model risk, the challenges have grown, including the increasing reliance by the regulators on models. |
| JEL: | G12 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-01&r=all |
| By: | Hoddinott, John; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Ledlie, Natasha; Roy, Shalini |
| Abstract: | Background: In many low-income countries, including in Bangladesh, girls tend to marry early and have children very soon after marriage. Although conveying infant and young child nutrition (IYCN) knowledge to adolescent girls in a timely manner is important to ensure the well-being of their children, little is known about the best ways to convey these messages. Objective: This study examines the sources from which adolescent girls derive IYCN knowledge in order to inform the design of programs that convey such information. Methods: Information on both characteristics and IYCN knowledge of adolescent girls aged 12-18 was collected as part of a baseline survey in 2013 for the DFID Programme to Accelerate Improved Nutrition for the Extreme Poor in Bangladesh project. A total of 436 girls in rural areas and 345 girls in urban areas are present in the study. Data were analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, fixed effects regression, and Poisson regression models. Results: In both the urban and rural samples, girls’ schooling is positively and significantly associated with IYCN knowledge. IYCN knowledge of adolescent girls’ mothers is also associated with adolescents’ IYCN knowledge in both urban and rural samples, but the magnitude of association in the urban sample is only half that of the rural sample. Conclusions: In Bangladesh, efforts to improve knowledge regarding IYCN is typically focused on mothers of young children. Only some of this knowledge is passed onto adolescent girls living in the same household. As other messaging efforts directed towards mothers have only small, or no association with adolescent girls’ knowledge of IYCN, improving adolescent girls’ understanding of breastfeeding, complementary feeding and more general nutrition knowledge may require information and messaging specifically directed towards them. |
| Keywords: | adolescent girls, infant and young child feeding knowledge, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | I12 O12 O15 R00 |
| Date: | 2015–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65767&r=all |
| By: | Consiglio, Andrea (University of Palermo); Tumminello, Michele (University of Palermo); Zenios, Stavros A. (University of Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | The shift from defined benefits (DB) to defined contributions (DC) is pervasive among pension funds, due to demographic changes and macroeconomic pressures. In DB all risks are borne by the provider, while in plain vanilla DC all risks are borne by the beneficiary. For DC to provide income security some kind of guarantee is required. A minimum guarantee clause can be modeled as a put option written on some underlying reference portfolio of assets and we propose a discrete model that optimally selects the reference portfolio to minimise the cost of a guarantee. While the relation DB-DC is typically viewed as a binary one, the model setup can be used to price a wide range of guarantees creating a continuum between DB and DC. Integrating guarantee pricing with asset allocation decision is useful to both pension fund managers and regulators. The former are given a yardstick to assess if a given asset portfolio is fit-for-purpose; the latter can assess differences of specific reference funds with respect to the optimal one, signalling possible cases of moral hazard. We develop the model and report extensive numerical results to illustrate its potential uses. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:15-03&r=all |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar |
| Abstract: | The paper shows that the effect of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA) is ambiguous. It discusses the benefits and costs of mark-to-market valuation and design of executive pay package policies within the US 2009 EESA. It highlights how the mark-to-market valuation standard influenced financial institutions, explains why mark-to-market policy suspension proponents can support the EESA, and realizes how the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) can count on the EESA while assessing the need and cost of the mark-to-market policy. Also, the paper discusses the promise of executive wage caps within the EESA. Moreover, it differentiates between executive pay packages pre- and post-EESA policies. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:310246&r=all |
| By: | Yoshihiro Yura; Hideki Takayasu; Didier Sornette; Misako Takayasu |
| Abstract: | We generalise the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterise the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD/JPY and EUR/USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.06024&r=all |
| By: | Ames, Mark (Oliver Wyman); Schuermann, Til (Oliver Wyman and University of PA); Scott, Hal S. (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Operational risk is fundamentally different from all other risks taken on by a bank. It is embedded in every activity and product of an institution, and in contrast to the conventional financial risks (e.g. market, credit) is harder to measure and model, and not straight forwardly eliminated through simple adjustments like selling off a position. Operational risk tends to be about 9-13% of the total risk pie, though growing rapidly since the 2008-09 crisis. It tends to be more fat-tailed than other risks, and the data are poorer. As a result, models are fragile--small changes in the data have dramatic impacts on modeled output--and thus required operational risk capital is unstable. Yet the regulatory capital regime is, surprisingly, more rigidly model focused for this risk than for any other, at least in the U.S. We are especially concerned with the absence of incentives to invest in and improve business control processes through the granting of regulatory capital relief. We make four, not mutually exclusive policy suggestions. First, address model fragility through anchoring of key model parameters, yet allow each bank to scale capital to their data using robust methodologies. Second, relax the current tight linkage between statistical model output and required regulatory capital, incentivizing prudent risk management through joint use of scenarios and control factors in addition to data-based statistical models in setting regulatory capital. Third, provide allowance for real risk transfer through an insurance credit to capital, encouraging more effective risk sharing through future product innovation. Fourth, expand upon the standard taxonomy of event type and business line to include additional explanatory variables (such as product type, flags for litigated events, etc.) that would allow more effective inter-bank sharing and learning from experience. Until our understanding of operational risks increases, required regulatory capital should be based on methodologies that are simpler, more standardized, more stable and more robust. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-02&r=all |
| By: | Mattila, Juri; Seppälä, Timo |
| Abstract: | At the beginning of the 1990s, the Internet’s various fragmented information networks were combined into one integrated network of systems. As a result, the commercial utilization of the Internet boomed, creating com- pletely new business models and economic structures in the process. A similar reaction is now anticipated from the digitalization of industry and society at large. However, the main question is: “How can all the separately structured, isolated systems be fused into one seamless network of systems?” So far, the problem has mainly been addressed from the standpoint of centralized and decentralized system architectures. Our analysis shows, however, that completely new and innovative technological approaches, such as the blockchain technology, are emerging to address this problem. These new distributed architecture solu- tions may completely revolutionize the anticipated structures and business models of the digitalization current- ly in progress, as they allow machines to autonomously share much more than just data, e.g. computing power, storage capacity or even electric power. As a result, understanding digitalization in its full capacity requires a systems approach and a new kind of higher-level thinking on the scale of a network of systems. |
| Keywords: | digitalization, industrial Internet, platforms, blockchain |
| JEL: | L14 L15 L86 L96 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:45&r=all |
| By: | Mocan, Naci (Louisiana State University); Pogorelova, Luiza (Louisiana State University) |
| Abstract: | We use micro data from the European Social Survey to investigate the impact of “culture of leisure” and taxes on labor force participation and hours worked of second-generation immigrants who reside in 26 European countries. These individuals are born in Europe, and they have been exposed to institutional, legal and labor market structures of their countries, including the tax rates. Fathers of these individuals are first-generation immigrants who migrated from 81 different countries. We construct measures of "taste for leisure" in the country of origin of each immigrant father. We employ average and marginal taxes for each country of residence, and control for a large set of individual characteristics, in addition to attributes of the country of residence and country of ancestry. The results show that for women, both taxes and culture of leisure impact participation and hours worked. For men, taxes influence labor supply both at the intensive and the extensive margins, but culture of leisure has no impact. |
| Keywords: | tax, labor supply, leisure, immigrant, culture, origin |
| JEL: | J22 Z1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9281&r=all |
| By: | Le, Vo Phuong Mai; Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick; Wickens, Michael R.; Xu, Yongdeng |
| Abstract: | With Monte Carlo experiments on models in widespread use we examine the performance of indirect inference (II) tests of DSGE models in small samples. We compare these tests with ones based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio, LR). We find that both these tests have power so that a substantially false model will tend to be rejected by both; but that the power of the II test is substantially greater, both because the LR is applied after re-estimation of the model error processes and because the II test uses the false model's own restricted distribution for the auxiliary model's coefficients. This greater power allows users to focus this test more narrowly on features of interest, trading off power against tractability. |
| Keywords: | bootstrap; DSGE; indirect inference; likelihood ratio; New Classical; New Keynesian; Wald Statistic |
| JEL: | C12 C32 C52 E1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10766&r=all |
| By: | Tsuruga, Ippei |
| Abstract: | With the post-2015 era approaching, debates surrounding poverty have seriously started to consider what makes for quality growth in order to eliminate extreme poverty, rather than just reduce it. Zero poverty cannot be realised without tackling chronic poverty. However, due to lack of data and evidence, poverty-reduction policies hardly consider the particular situations and characteristics of the chronically poor. In order to fill such research gaps, this paper examines the trends and characteristics of chronic poverty in rural Cambodia between 2004 and 2010. Applying a blend of nationally representative qualitative (participatory poverty assessment) and quantitative sources (household survey), I primarily estimate chronic poverty headcount rates, based on criteria defined by the poor. Surprisingly, despite the excellent progress in economic development, the chronic poverty headcount ratio barely improved from 11 percent. The result implies that rapid economic growth has successfully raised the consumption of chronically poor households, but had done little to help them accumulate productive assets and human capital to break a vicious cycle of poverty. Structural constraints are identified in their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, including: limited asset ownership, low human development, female heads of household, high child dependency, fewer economically active members, small household size, and many young members. From a policy perspective, one striking finding is that consumption measurements based on the current national poverty line cannot be used to identify a majority of the chronic poor. This is not merely a matter of different measurement applications, because the chronically poor identified in this study are just as deprived as the consumption-based poor in some other attributes like human development. The evidence suggests that poverty reduction programs should take into consideration the multidimensional criteria identified here to avoid leaving the chronically poor behind in the country’s development. This policy implication is particularly important for targeting mechanisms of social protection instruments implemented under the National Social Protection Strategy, which are key measures in ending poverty in Cambodia. |
| Keywords: | chronic poverty , combining methods , social protection , targeting , Cambodia |
| Date: | 2015–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:104&r=all |
| By: | Derya Findik (Science and Technology Policy Studies Program, Middle East Technical University 06800 Ankara, Turkey); Aysit Tansel (Cornell University, Ithaca, USA & Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of firm resources on ICT adoption by the Turkish business enterprises using firm level data. ICT adoption is measured at three levels: The first level is technology ownership. The second level is the presence of enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer resource management (CRM), and the third level is the use of narrowband and broadband technologies. The effects of the three main features of each technology level, which are complementarity, specificity, and the complexity, are analyzed by using firm level data in Turkey. This study has three main conclusions. As for the complementarity, firm’s resources play an important role in the adoption of technology while advancing from single technology to the multiple ones. Further, in the use of specific technologies such as ERP and CRM, firm resources generate differential effects between those technologies. Finally, the use of simple technologies does not require the same amount of firm resources as complex technologies. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2015/12&r=all |
| By: | A. Paliathanasis; K. Krishnakumar; K. M. Tamizhmani; P. G. L. Leach |
| Abstract: | We perform a classification of the Lie point symmetries for the Black-Scholes-Merton model for European options with stochastic volatility $% \sigma$, in which the last is defined by a stochastic differential equation with the Orstein-Uhlenbeck term. In this model the value of the option is given by a linear (1+2) evolution partial differential equation, in which the price of the option depends on two independent variables, the value of the underlying asset $S$ and a new variable, $y$, which follow from the Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. We find that for arbitrary functional form of the volatility, $\sigma(y)$, the (1+2) evolution equation admits always two Lie symmetries, plus the linear symmetry and the infinity number of solution symmetries. However when $\sigma(y)=\sigma_{0}$ and since the price of the option depends on the second Brownian motion in which the volatility is defined, the (1+2) evolution is not reduced to the Black-Scholes-Merton equation, the model admits five Lie symmetries, plus the linear symmetry and the infinity number of solution symmetries. Furthermore we apply the zero-order invariants of the Lie symmetries and we reduce the (1+2) evolution equation to a linear second-order ordinary differential equation. Finally we study two models of special interest, the Heston model and the Stein-Stein model. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.06797&r=all |
| By: | Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John; Rockoff, Jonah |
| Abstract: | Using data from North Carolina, Jesse Rothstein (2014) presents a comprehensive replication of Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff's [CFR] (2014a,b) results on teachers' impacts. In addition, Rothstein presents new evidence that he argues raises concerns about three aspects of CFR's methods and identification assumptions: their treatment of missing data, the validity of their quasi-experimental design, and their method of controlling for observables when estimating teachers' long-term effects. In this paper, we show that Rothstein's methodological critiques are not valid by replicating his new empirical findings using simulated data in which none of CFR's identification assumptions are violated. We also present supplementary empirical evidence from our data supporting the assumptions required for CFR's original analyses. Together, these results show that: (1) Rothstein's technique for imputing teacher VA for teachers with missing data generates bias, while subsamples with no missing data yield estimates of forecast bias similar to CFR's baseline results; (2) his proposed prior score \placebo test" rejects valid quasiexperimental research designs, and the correlation between changes in prior test scores and current teacher value-added he documents is an artifact of estimating teacher value-added using prior test score data; and (3) his method of controlling for covariates yields inconsistent estimates of teachers' long-term effects, while quasi-experimental designs that do not rely on controls for observables yield estimates of teachers' long-term impacts similar to CFR's baseline results. We conclude that Rothstein's important replication study is entirely consistent with – and in fact reinforces – CFR's methods and results. Our conclusions match those of Bacher-Hicks, Kane, and Staiger (2014), who replicate both CFR's results and Rothstein's findings using data from Los Angeles and also conclude that Rothstein's results raise no concerns about CFR's analysis. |
| Keywords: | education policy; teacher effects; value-added models |
| JEL: | H52 I28 J01 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10768&r=all |
| By: | Falk Mazelis; ; ; |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy shocks on nancial in- termediaries. I distinguish between banks and shadow banks based on their funding constraints. Because credit creation by banks responds to economy-wide productivity endogenously, bank reaction to shocks corresponds to the balance sheet channel. Shadow banks are constrained by their available funding and their behavior is better explained by the lending channel. In line with empirical observations, shadow bank lending moves in the opposite direction to bank lending following monetary policy shocks, which mitigates aggregate credit responses. The propagation of real and nancial shocks is likewise altered when shadow banks are identied as a distinct sector among nancial intermediaries. Following estimation of the model using Bayesian methods, a historical shock decomposition highlights the roles of banks and shadow banks in the run-up to the 2007 - 08 nancial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Shadow Banking, Monetary Policy Transmission, Credit Channel, Bayesian Methods, Search Frictions |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E51 G20 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-040&r=all |
| By: | Cheremukhin, Anton; Golosov, Mikhail; Guriev, Sergei; Tsyvinski, Aleh |
| Abstract: | This paper studies growth and structural transformation of the Chinese economy from 1953 to 2012 through a lens of a two-sector growth model. The main goal of the paper is to provide a systematic analysis of both the pre-1978 reform and post-1978 reform periods in a unified framework. First, we construct a dataset that allows the application of the neoclassical model and computation of wedges, their components, and rates of TFP growth. Second, we determine the key quantitative factors behind growth and structural transformation. The changes in the intersectoral labor wedge play the dominant role in accounting for the change in the share of labor force in agriculture. TFP growth and changes in the intersectoral wedges are the two most significant factors contributing to GDP growth. Further decomposing the effects of reduction in wedges, we find that two components: the production component (the gap between the ratio of the marginal products of labor and relative wages) and the consumption component (the gap between the marginal rate of substitution and the relative prices) play a particularly large role. Third, we use the pre-reform period as a key benchmark to measure the success of the post-1978 reforms. We show that reforms yielded a significant growth and structural transformation differential. GDP growth is 4.2 percentage points higher and the share of the labor force in agriculture is 23.9 percentage points lower compared with the continuation of the pre-1978 policies. We provide extensive historical evidence for the reforms that are consistent with the evolution of the components of the wedges. The decrease in the production component of the intersectoral wedge is consistent with increased competition and demonopolization of the economy. The decrease in the consumption component of the wedge is consistent with the price and housing reforms. Finally, we project the path of the Chinese economy until 2050 and also calculate a lower bound on future growth by projecting pre-reform trends. |
| Keywords: | Chinese economy; structural transformation |
| JEL: | N1 N55 O11 O14 O2 O41 P2 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10764&r=all |
| By: | Angelini, V.;; Mierau, J. O.; |
| Abstract: | We study the causal impact of teenage motherhood on late-life health outcomes, using a retrospective survey of almost 12,000 women from 13 European countries containing detailed information on early-life circumstances. We find that, compared to other women, teenage mothers experience substantially lower self-reported latelife health and are more likely to display depressive symptoms. This effect is robust to controlling for early-life factors, both parametrically and through propensity score matching, and is unlikely to be driven by selection on unobservables. Studying potential transmission mechanisms by which teenage motherhood translates into adverse late-life health highlights the importance of life-cycle socio-economic conditions and societal values. |
| Keywords: | teenage motherhood; self-reported health; depression; retrospective data; Europe; |
| JEL: | I31 J13 J14 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:15/09&r=all |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Parag A. Pathak; Maisy Wong |
| Abstract: | This paper documents uniformity in real estate commission rates across markets and time using a dataset on realtor commissions for 653,475 residential listings in eastern Massachusetts from 1998-2011. Newly established real estate brokerage offices charging low commissions grow more slowly than comparable entrants with higher commissions. Properties listed with lower commission rates experience less favorable transaction outcomes: they are 5% less likely to sell and take 12% longer to sell. These adverse outcomes reflect decreased willingness of buyers' agents to intermediate low commission properties (steering) rather than heterogeneous seller preferences or reduced effort of listing agents. While all agents and offices prefer properties with high commissions, firms and agents with large market shares purchase a disproportionately small fraction of low commission properties. The negative outcomes for low commissions provide empirical support for regulatory concerns that steering reinforces the uniformity of commissions. |
| JEL: | D4 L1 L8 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21489&r=all |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Stan Veuger |
| Abstract: | We describe the broad range of uncertainties faced by the developers of medical technologies. Empirically, we estimate the asset market incidence of two realizations of uncertainties we classify as within-market policy risks. The events we analyze concern the intellectual property of Myriad Genetics, Inc., an American molecular diagnostics firm. In June 2013, the Supreme Court invalidated several of Myriad's intellectual property claims. Subsequently, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) re-evaluated the reimbursements it pays for the services at issue in the Supreme Court's ruling. Each of these events moved Myriad's market capitalization by several hundred million dollars, or on the order of 20 percent. Myriad's exposure to the realization of these events reflected the concentration of its revenue streams among the affected services. We discuss the implications of the risks we analyze for the total volume of medical innovation and for its organization across firms. |
| JEL: | H51 H57 I18 O31 O32 O34 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21469&r=all |
| By: | Jeremiah Dittmar; Skipper Seabold |
| Abstract: | This research studies the role of competition in the diffusion of radical ideas and institutional change during the Protestant Reformation. We construct a new measure of religious content in the media using data on all known books and pamphlets printed in German-speaking Europe 1454-1600. We find that Protestant content was produced in greater quantity in local media markets with more competing firms when Martin Luther circulated his initial arguments for reform in 1517. We find that competition mattered differentially more for the diffusion of Protestant ideas and for institutional change where city governments had the least legal autonomy from feudal lords. We document the relationship between competition and diffusion directly and using the deaths of printers to isolate plausibly exogenous variation in competition. We show that cities where initial competition was greater, and which were more exposed to Protestant ideas, were more likely to adopt the legal institutions of the Reformation. |
| Keywords: | competition, firms, media, technology, institutions, religion, politics, high-dimensional data |
| JEL: | D02 O3 N33 N94 P48 Z12 L82 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1367&r=all |
| By: | J. Sylvan Katz (SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, UK) |
| Abstract: | Innovation systems are frequently referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale- invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxa where the exponent, a, is a measure of the scale-invariance. The purpose of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system and in particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature. These properties can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. And citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as the data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. Papers indexed in Scopus were classified into fields using the Scopus, NSF and MAPS schemes. The evolution of the overall and field level impact distributions were examined to see if they had a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant as they aged. Also, correlations between impact and size were explored to see if they were scale-invariant too. The findings show that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time. Scale-invariant correlations are shown to exist between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. However, it was found that care must be exercised making these measures as the method of classification may hide emerging properties. The confirmation that an innovation has common characteristics of an adaptive complex system and scale-invariant emergent properties allows us to confidently say that the global research system has a reasonable likelihood of being a complex innovation system. And using the recursive nature of scale-invariance it is reasonable to assume that regional, national, local and sectoral level systems contained within it are complex with scale- invariant properties too. Measures and models based on the scale-invariant properties of complex innovation systems can provide new and novel insights about an innovation system useful for informing public policy. |
| Keywords: | innovation system; scale-invariant; scale-free; complex system; complex adaptive system; power law; innovation policy; bibliometric; scientometric |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2015-21&r=all |
| By: | Akram Kachee (GREMMO - Groupe de recherches et d'études sur la Méditerranée et le Moyen-Orient - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Sciences Po - CNRS); Jérôme Maucourant (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | La Syrie est la nation arabe la plus affectée par la violence ; plus que le mot « révolution », c’est le mot « guerre » qui vient immédiatement à l’esprit en cette année 2014. Pourtant, au commencement, la contestation qui visait le régime était fondamentalement pacifique. A cet égard, il convient de noter la réussite indéniable d’un régime qui, traitant de façon policière ou militaire la question politique, a réussi à militariser l’insurrection. Ainsi, le caractère originellement multiforme de celle-ci a cédé la place à des logiques de polarisation et de radicalisation qui menace la substance même de la société. Les ingérences étrangères, qui se sont développées, avec le concours actif du régime avide de construire d’utiles ennemis, ont incité nombre de commentateurs à nier le caractère révolutionnaire du moment que traverse la Syrie.Il est vrai que, marqués par une certaine tradition orientaliste, certains spécialistes peinent à penser que le monde arabe puisse connaître d’authentiques révolutions au sens où l’Occident les a connues depuis trois siècles. Les ingrédients critiques de ces révolutions, comme l’égalité ou une certaine autonomie individuelle, n’existeraient pas encore, en effet, dans le monde arabe contemporain. Le culturalisme orientaliste consent, certes, à reconnaître que des soulèvements puissent résulter de l’indignité dans laquelle certains Etats maintiennent leurs peuples ; un manque d’une minimale redistribution des fruits de la croissance économique peut aussi être considéré comme une cause des révoltes. Mais, l’ampleur des événements en Syrie, notamment, suggère, dans cette perspective, de mettre en avant des facteurs propres aux sociétés orientales, comme le confessionnalisme ou leur perméabilité aux influences étrangères. Selon cette hypothèse, le déchaînement guerrier ne ferait qu’objectiver de violents sentiments sectaires enfouis jusqu’alors. Le ressentiment d’une partie de la population, avivé par de multiples ingérences étrangères, serait donc le moteur d’une révolte qui n’a rien d’une révolution. La possibilité d’une dictature confessionnelle, qui s’esquisserait dans les revendications de certains rebelles, serait la vérité d’une révolte qui ne pose pas la question de l’émancipation, et qui ne serait donc pas, par conséquent, une révolution.Notre thèse, à l’inverse, est que l’insurrection syrienne a une signification profondément révolutionnaire, c’est-à-dire que la question politique centrale est originellement celle de l’émancipation collective et individuelle ; la question syrienne est donc essentiellement une question révolutionnaire. Son origine ne peut se trouver dans le vieux cadre du confessionalisme ou de la politique des puissances, même si le régime réactive le vieux monde déclinant pour pouvoir persister. Nous tenons, ainsi, que le déchaînement du confessionalisme manifeste cette politique de la contre-révolution et non la vérité profonde de la révolution. Néanmoins, ce que la contre-révolution ne pourra sans doute jamais effacer, même si elle devait triompher, c’est l’idée, partagée au plus profond de la société, que les événements ont brisé toute continuité entre passé et avenir, c’est l’idée révolutionnaire elle-même.Dans une première partie consacrée à l’idéologie, nous discuterons de cette idée selon laquelle la révolution n’a pas eu lieu, pas plus en Syrie qu’ailleurs. Selon cette conception orientaliste, l’Arabe se réduit essentiellement à un homo religiosus à la Mircéa Eliade, qui demeure étranger à l’idée de révolution. Cette hypothèse rejoint une conception apologétique de certains régimes arabes et musulmans, selon laquelle leurs peuples ne les contestent pas radicalement dès lors qu’ils ne sont pas inféodés à l’Occident. Il y règnerait, ainsi, des voies singulières adaptées à l’esprit de certains peuples, que ce soit en Syrie ou en Iran. Dans une deuxième partie plus sociologique, nous réaffirmerons la réalité révolutionnaire que l’on veut occulter. À cet égard, il est nécessaire de discuter de la riche mais trop brève œuvre de Michel Seurat, qui utilisait des catégories du marxisme pour les retourner contre elles-mêmes, et qui rejoignait in fine l’analyse des Frères Musulmans. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01087302&r=all |
| By: | Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | To exit the Great Recession and initiate the transition towards a low carbon economy, we propose a public-private investment plan in the energetic transition of about 2 points per year of European GDP. The key concept of this plan is the opportunity to reconsider the criteria for public finances using, as the goal of stability a concept of public debt net of created public assets (in percent of GDP), instead of gross public debt. An impartial body (eg the European Commission) could assess ex post and ex ante the value of investments, creating the incentives for coherent and effective public expenditure policies. |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00988414&r=all |
| By: | José Ngidjima (CREOP - Centre de Recherches sur l'Entreprise, les Organisations et le Patrimoine - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société); Vincent Lagarde (CREOP - Centre de Recherches sur l'Entreprise, les Organisations et le Patrimoine - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société) |
| Abstract: | This paper wonders about the interest to lead a responsible business strategy in a wild environment where performance is based on deregulated competition. We apply this questioning to artisanal mining of " " blood diamonds» in DR Congo, deemed among the most difficult conditions, while some companies organize themselves into cooperatives announced respectful and more efficient. We interview 15 artisanal miners of two cooperatives and 7 actors of their competitive and institutional environment, about their perceptions of the different criteria of the sustainable performance: economic, social and ecological. It appears that cooperative organizations are actually perceived more efficient, by both their members and their environment, on all of the criteria. Cooperatives have significantly reduced all complaints against the mining industry and prove more profitable, even if there is significant scope for progress. |
| Abstract: | Cette communication s'interroge sur l'intérêt de mener une stratégie d'entreprise responsable dans un environnement où la performance repose sur une compétition sauvage dérèglementée. Nous appliquons ce questionnement aux mines artisanales des « diamants du sang » en RD Congo, réputées parmi les conditions les plus difficiles, alors que certaines entreprises s'y organisent en coopératives annoncées plus respectueuses et plus efficientes. Nous interrogeons 15 mineurs de deux coopératives et 7 acteurs de leur environnement concurrentiel et institutionnel, sur leurs perceptions des différents critères composant la performance globale : économiques, sociaux et écologiques. Il apparait que les organisations coopératives sont effectivement perçues plus efficaces, à la fois par leurs adhérents et leur environnement, sur l'ensemble des critères retenus. Les coopératives ont considérablement réduit l'ensemble des griefs reprochés aux mines du secteur et s'avèrent bien plus rentables, même s'il y a encore des marges de progression. |
| Date: | 2015–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01178340&r=all |
| By: | Veronica Rappoport (London School of Economics); Philipp Schnabl (NYU Stern); Daniel Paravisini (LSE) |
| Abstract: | We develop an empirical approach for identifying comparative advantages in bank lending. Using matched credit-export data from Peru, we first uncover patterns of bank specialization by export market: every country has a subset of banks with an abnormally large loan portfolio exposure to its exports. Using outliers to measure specialization, we use a revealed preference approach to show that bank specialization reflects a comparative advantage in lending. We show, in specifications that saturate all firm-time and bank-time variation, that firms that expand exports to a destination market tend to expand borrowing disproportionately more from banks specialized in that destination market. Bank comparative advantages increase with bank size in the cross section, and in the time series after mergers. Our results challenge the perceived view that, outside relationship lending, banks are perfectly substitutable sources of funding. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:499&r=all |
| By: | Pierre-André Jouvet (EconomiX, University of Paris Ouest, France); Julien Wolfersberger (Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière, INRA - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | We study sustainable growth in an economy with natural land endowments, specifically forests, and the need for public policies to quantify the financial value of green capital, measured by forests. Exhaustible primary forests are first depleted for agriculture and production, until a switch occurs to the renewable secondary forests. The introduction of REDD+ in the economy reduces agricultural expansion, since the social planner invests in green capital, at the expense of the physical one. We show that the optimal REDD+ national strategy highly depends on the development stage of the recipient economy. In the end, we prove our findings by calibrating our model to Indonesia and illustrate recommendations for public policies. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation; Development; Forest Transition; Green capital; Growth |
| JEL: | Q15 Q23 Q32 Q56 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lef:wpaper:2015-06&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Fabien Prieur (INRA - INRA MONTPELLIER - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)); Benteng Zou (CREA - Center for Research in Economic Analysis - Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | We propose an analysis of institutional dynamics under uncertainty by the means of a stochastic differential lobbying game with two main ingredients. The first one is uncertainty inherent in the institutional process itself. The second one has to do with the crucial role of resource windfalls in economic and political outcomes, shaping lobbying power and adding a second source of uncertainty. First, we focus on uncertainty surrounding the institutional process only and show that its main consequence is the existence of multiple equilibria with very distinct features: symmetric equilibria which lead the economy to reach almost surely a stable pointwise institutional steady state in the long run even in the absence of the retaliation motive put forward by the deterministic lobbying literature, and asymmetric equilibria which only show up under uncertainty and do no allow for stochastic convergence to a steady state. Second, when accounting for the two sources of uncertainty together with resource revenue-dependent lobbying power, we show that revenue volatility tends to stabilize institutional dynamics compared to the deterministic counterpart. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01181214&r=all |
| By: | Hannu Salonen (Department of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the cases when the Bonacich measures of strongly connected directed bipartite networks can be interpreted as a Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. One such case is a two-person game such that the utility functions are bilinear, the matrices of these bilinear forms represent the network, and strategies have norm at most one. Another example is a two-person game with quadratic utility functions. A third example is an m + n person game with quadratic utilitity functions, where the matrices representing the network have dimension m × n. For connected directed bipartite networks we show that the Bonacich measures are unique and give a recursion formula for the computation of the measures. The Bonacich measures of such networks can be interpreted as a subgame perfect equilibrium path of an extensive form game with almost perfect information. |
| Keywords: | networks, influence measures, Nash equilibrium |
| JEL: | C71 D85 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp100&r=all |
| By: | Yunus Emre Ergemen (Aarhus University and CREATES); Carlos Velasco (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We consider large N, T panel data models with fixed effects, common factors allowing cross-section dependence, and persistent data and shocks, which are assumed fractionally integrated. In a basic setup, the main interest is on the fractional parameter of the idiosyncratic component, which is estimated in first differences after factor removal by projection on the cross-section average. The pooled conditional-sum-of-squares estimate is root-NT consistent but the normal asymptotic distribution might not be centered, requiring the time series dimension to grow faster than the cross-section size for correction. Generalizing the basic setup to include covariates and heterogeneous parameters, we propose individual and common-correlation estimates for the slope parameters, while error memory parameters are estimated from regression residuals. The two parameter estimates are root-T consistent and asymptotically normal and mutually uncorrelated, irrespective of possible cointegration among idiosyncratic components. A study of small-sample performance and an empirical application to realized volatility persistence are included. |
| Keywords: | Fractional cointegration, factor models, long memory, realized volatility |
| JEL: | C22 C23 |
| Date: | 2015–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2015-35&r=all |
| By: | Sylvie Chevrier (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée) |
| Abstract: | Does Academia's obsession with publishing in journals with the widest renown help the science of management advance? On the contrary, evaluating research by the number of highly cited publications estranges those who publish from research itself! Forms of research are defended herein that are closer to the subject of the study. Although they will not necessarily find a place as articles formatted for star journals, they allow for more innovation and creativity. |
| Abstract: | L'obsession du monde académique pour la rédaction d'articles dans les revues les mieux cotées fait-elle vraiment avancer les sciences de gestion? Nous soutenons au contraire que l'évaluation de la recherche à l'aune du nombre des "étoiles" des publications éloigne les "publiants" de la recherche! Nos défendrons dans cet article des formes de recherche plus proches des objets étudiés, des formes de recherche qui ne trouvent pas nécessairement leur place dans des articles formatés des revues, mais qui permettent davantage d'innovations et de créativité. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01122461&r=all |
| By: | Pejman Bahramian (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Turkey); Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus , via Mersin 10, Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Patrick T. kanda (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | The conduct of inflation targeting is heavily dependent on accurate inflation forecasts. Non-linear models have increasingly featured, along with linear counterparts, in the forecasting literature. In this study, we focus on forecasting South African infl ation by means of non-linear models and using a long historical dataset of seasonally-adjusted monthly inflation rates spanning from 1921:02 to 2013:01. For an emerging market economy such as South Africa, non-linearities can be a salient feature of such long data, hence the relevance of evaluating non-linear models' forecast performance. In the same vein, given the fact that 1969:10 marks the beginning of a protracted rising trend in South African inflation data, we estimate the models for an in-sample period of 1921:02-1966:09 and evaluate 24 step-ahead forecasts over an out-of-sample period of 1966:10-2013:01. In addition, using a weighted loss function specification, we evaluate the forecast performance of different non-linear models across various extreme economic environments and forecast horizons. In general, we find that no competing model consistently and significantly beats the LoLiMoT's performance in forecasting South African inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; forecasting; non-linear models; weighted loss function; South Africa |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-19.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Marianne Frank Hansen (Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM); Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit and IZA); Torben Tranæs (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit and IZA) |
| Abstract: | All over Europe, ageing populations threaten nations’ financial sustainability. In this paper we examine the potential of immigration to strengthen financial sustainability. We look at a particularly challenging case, namely that of Denmark, which has extensive tax-financed welfare programmes that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast for the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Net contributions to the public purse are presented both as cross-sectional figures for a long time horizon and as average individual life-cycle contributions. The main conclusion is that immigrants from richer countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from poorer countries have a large negative one. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement in combination with the universal Danish welfare schemes. |
| Keywords: | immigration, public finances, forecasting, denmark |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dra:wpaper:201501&r=all |
| By: | Belo, Frederico (University of MN); Lin, Xiaoji (OH State University); Yang, Fan (University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | The ability of corporations to raise external equity finance varies with macroeconomic conditions, suggesting that the cost of equity issuance is time-varying. Using cross sectional data on U.S. publicly traded firms, we construct an empirical proxy of an aggregate shock to the cost of equity issuance, which we interpret as a financial shock. We show that this shock captures systematic risk, and that exposure to this shock helps price the cross section of stock returns including book-to-market, investment, and size portfolios. We propose a dynamic investment-based model with stochastic equity issuance costs and a collateral constraint to interpret the empirical findings. Our central finding is that time variation in external equity financing costs is important for the model to quantitatively capture the joint dynamics of firms' asset prices, real quantities, and financing flows. In the model, growth firms, high investment firms, and large firms, can substitute more easily debt financing for equity financing when it becomes more costly to raise external equity, hence these firms are less risky in equilibrium. The model also replicates the failure of the unconditional CAPM in pricing the cross section of stock returns. |
| JEL: | E23 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-08&r=all |
| By: | Nanak Kakwani; Hyun H. Son |
| Abstract: | This paper calculates a new global poverty line based on 2011 PPP. It moves away from the World Bank’s method of anchoring a single global poverty line on the national poverty lines of the poorest countries. To calculate a new global poverty line based on 2011 PPP, the paper proposes the use of equivalent poverty lines. Each country has a different equivalent poverty line. The paper demonstrates that there is no single poverty line in 2011 PPP that is equivalent to \$1.25 in 2005 PPP. Single poverty lines vary for each region since countries have experienced different inflation rates and have different PPP conversion rates between 2005 and 2011. To calculate a single poverty line in 2011 PPP, the paper measures the weighted average of equivalent poverty lines of 66 countries in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa with weights proportional to their populations. The corresponding poverty line is calculated at \$1.78 in 2011 PPP. Using the proposed global poverty line of \$1.78 in 2011 PPP, the number of poor is reduced by 58.06 million with the reduction largely occurring in Asia. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2015-371&r=all |
| By: | Michel Damian (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Mehdi Abbas (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Pierre Berthaud (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France) |
| Abstract: | The present article focuses on the already discernable key objectives of the climate agreement due to be signed in December 2015 in Paris, coming into force in 2020. The agreement will be based exclusively on ‘national policies’, turning its back on the first climate policy enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol, synonymous with an outdated, top-down architecture and hopes of a binding international agreement. All states, including those, such as China, which the Kyoto Protocol placed in the list of developing countries, are expected to propose ‘intended nationally determined contributions’ to cutting greenhouse-gas emissions, which are heterogeneous, with only modest medium-term targets, and not legally binding. The Paris Agreement will represent a turning point, heralding a new climatic governance in the continuity of governance centring on states, but henceforth on a global scale. In other words the agreement will take into account the preferences of the 195 parties to the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, in particular the most powerful among their number. We maintain that this agreement will change the course of climate change mitigation and adaptation for decades. |
| Abstract: | L’article est consacré aux grandes orientations, déjà repérables, de l’accord climatique qui sera signé à Paris en décembre 2015, pour devenir effectif à partir de 2020. L’Accord sera fondé sur les seules « politiques nationales » ; il tournera le dos à la première politique climatique, celle du Protocole de Kyoto, et donc à l’architecture ancienne « par le haut » et à l’ambition d’un accord international contraignant. Des « contributions nationalement déterminées » pour la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, de nature hétérogène et d’ambitions modestes à moyen terme – et non plus des engagements –, sont attendues de la part de tous les Etats, y compris ceux inclus par le Protocole de Kyoto, comme la Chine, dans la liste des pays en développement. L’Accord de Paris constituera un tournant. Il inaugurera une nouvelle gouvernance climatique, dans la continuité de la gouvernance centrée sur les Etats, mais cette fois à l’échelle globale, c’est-à-dire tenant compte des préférences des 195 Etats signataires de la Convention-cadre sur les changements climatiques de 1992, et en particulier des plus puissants d’entre eux. On soutient que cet accord marquera le paysage de la lutte contre le réchauffement et de l’adaptation à celui-ci pour des décennies. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01078240&r=all |
| By: | Watanuki,Maika |
| Abstract: | Regulatory frameworks on logistics regulations are often opaque, especially in developing countries, because of the complex nature of logistics services. World Bank client countries have faced difficulty finding the issues that hinder them from improving logistics competence. Therefore, it is beneficial to understand how the logistics service industry is regulated and what should be addressed in building the regulatory framework to improve logistics competence. This note proposes questions to be addressed for beneficial regulations by reviewing existing logistics service regulations in 14 countries, particularly regulations for the freight forwarding industry. These questions will help in assessing a regulatory framework and identifying regulatory weaknesses. This note suggests that the regulatory framework should take into consideration national recognition of freight forwarding business, an institutional arrangement with clear division of responsibility among stakeholders, and streamlined but flexible regulations adapted to the country context. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Regulatory Regimes,Transport and Trade Logistics,Public Sector Regulation,Common Carriers Industry |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7401&r=all |
| By: | Douglas L. Campbell (New Economic School (NES)) |
| Abstract: | Commonly used trade-weighted real exchange rate indices are computed as indices-of-indices, and thus do not adequately account for growth in trade with developing countries. Weighted Average Relative Price (WARP) indices solve this problem but do not control for productivity differences, as developing countries are observed to have lower price levels via the Penn Effect. I remedy these problems in two ways. First I propose a Penn Effect productivity adjustment to Weighted Average Relative Price indices (P-WARP). Secondly, I introduce a Weighted Average Relative Unit Labor Cost index (WARULC) for manufacturing and show that this measure does a much better job predicting trade imbalances and declines in manufacturing employment than the IMF’s Relative ULC measure created as an index-of-indices. The new series reveal that for many countries currently mired in liquidity traps, relative prices reached historic highs heading into the financial crisis of 2008. I document that in 2002 – during the surprisingly sudden collapse in US manufacturing – US relative prices had not been that high relative to trading partners since the worst year of the Great Depression. |
| Keywords: | Real Exchange Rate Indices, Relative Unit Labor Cost Indices, Weighted Average Relative Prices, Balassa-Samuelson, Trading Partner Substitution Bias |
| JEL: | F10 F31 N70 C43 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0216&r=all |
| By: | Amélie Boutinot (ISG - Institut Supérieur de Gestion - Institut Supérieur de Gestion); Shahzad Ansari (Judge Business School - University of Cambridge (UK)); Mustapha Belkhouja (MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Vincent Mangematin (MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)) |
| Abstract: | While the notion of reputation has attracted much scholarly interest, few studies have addressed the strategic issue of reputational multiplicity and managing the interactions among different types of reputations. We suggest that an organization can have several stakeholderspecific reputations – peer, market, and expert – and that reputational spillover effects (the continued influence of one reputation on another) matter at the organizational level. We test reputational spillovers on 42 French architecture companies over a period of 30 years. Our results show that over time, the three reputations interact with each other, generating positive spillovers, with the exception of market and expert reputations. We contribute by explaining how interconnected organizational reputations among different stakeholders can interact over time, how companies can strategically manage reputational spillovers, and how such spillovers influence organizations in creative and professional industries. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:hal-01183392&r=all |
| By: | Masanao Itoh (Professor, Otsuma Women's University and IMES, Bank of Japan (E-mail: masaitoh@otsuma.ac.jp)); Ryoji Koike (Director and Deputy Head of Monetary History Studies Group, IMES, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ryouji.koike@boj.or.jp)); Masato Shizume (Professor, Waseda University and IMES, Bank of Japan (E-mail: masato.shizume@waseda.jp)) |
| Abstract: | This monographic paper summarizes views held by the Bank of Japan (hereafter BOJ or the Bank) in the 1980s regarding economic conditions and monetary policy formulation, perceived from the BOJ archives and other materials from the period. From a historical viewpoint, the authors see the 1980s as a watershed time for the Bank's policy formulation, because the Bank acquired lessons for monetary policy formulation under a large fluctuation in economic and financial conditions and innovated new approaches for monetary policy formulation and money market management as stated below. First, during the 1980s the BOJ had to largely consider the external imbalance in formulating policy, and attention began to shift towards price stability in the medium or long term by the end of the decade. Second, the large fluctuations in asset prices, money supply, and commercial bank lending were closely monitored during this period, but the Bank's assessment about their impacts on macroeconomic consequences in the medium to long term was insufficient. A reflection of these lessons appears to evolve into a perspective on the Bank's monetary policy formulation that financial imbalances should be examined as a risk for achieving price stability in the medium to long term. Third, in light of ongoing financial deregulation during this period, the Bank started to change monetary policy measures from those based on a regulated interest rate framework to those based on market operation with good use of money markets and flexible interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy management, Price stability in the medium and long term, Financial imbalance, External imbalance, Financial deregulation |
| JEL: | E52 N15 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:15-e-12&r=all |
| By: | Ariane Tichit (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the social representations of money from survey data. More specifically, it tests how holders of a complementary currency project have a distinct perception of money compared to other citizens. The main results confirm the existence of significant differences between the two groups. The structure of their representations shows that money is less tied to official institutions, the symbol of the sovereign State, to work and wages than for the representative population group. This confirms a number of theoretical works that see these social innovations as protest projects of the standard system, questioning the sovereignty State currency and close to the concepts of unconditional income. Local currencies, by differences in social representations they contain, could well be generators of societal change. |
| Date: | 2015–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01178837&r=all |
| By: | Ryuji Sano (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the equilibrium of core-selecting auctions under incomplete information. We consider the ascending proxy auction of Ausubel and Milgrom (2002) in a stylized environment with two goods and three bidders: two local and one global. Because of the free-riding incentive, local bidders with a sufficiently low value submit a zero bid. In contrast, they submit almost truthfully if the value is sufficiently high. We also provide equilibrium with reserve prices, and show that a reserve price for local bidders improve both allocative efficiency and revenue in equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | core-selecting auctions, ascending proxy auction, reserve price |
| JEL: | D44 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:926&r=all |
| By: | Mohammadi, Ali (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Shafi, Kourosh (Department of Management, Economics, and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano) |
| Abstract: | The scholars and popular news has argued that new form of investment through online platform known as equity Crowfunding increases the gender equality in financial market for both entrepreneurs and investors. In this paper we investigate whether there are gender-differences in the behavior of investors in firms seeking equity financing in comparison with other settings (e.g. stock market, pension saving). Using data from Swedish equity crowdfunding platform– Fundedbyme, we find that only 20% of investors are female. We also find female investors are less likely to invest in the equity of younger firms, high-technology firms, and those firms with higher percentage of equity offerings. This pattern seems consistent with more risk-aversion of female investors compared to male ones. Furthermore, women are more likely to invest in projects in which proportion of male investors is higher. Overall our result shows that there are not major in pattern of investment between equity crowdfunding and other traditional investment settings. |
| Keywords: | Equity crowdfunding; Gender; Herding; Observational learning; Risk-aversion |
| JEL: | G02 G11 G20 M13 |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0419&r=all |
| By: | Kondoh, Hisahiro |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses aid models of emerging economies in terms of their orientation to the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) aid model. This paper first provides a short literature review. After summarizing the DAC aid model, several hypotheses to account for the convergence process of aid models are considered, followed by a discussion of how recipient perceptions of desirable aid may also work indirectly to promote both the convergence and divergence of aid models. In addition, this paper considers the hypothesis that the convergence and divergence of aid models may be promoted and inhibited by a donor’s learning of other models as well as predominant norms and identities, which are shared by major aid-related stakeholders. Secondly, this paper provides a brief overview of some characteristics of individual donors such as China, India, South Africa and South Korea and Arab countries. Arab donors have created an Islamic aid model, China utilizes an emerging superpower aid model, South Africa advocates a Southern hybrid aid model, and South Korea has established an Asian DAC aid model. While China and India have kept their distance from the DAC aid model, the aid models of South Africa and Arab donors have incorporated elements of the DAC aid model, with the Korean aid model introducing it most completely. Thirdly, the paper will explore how the perceptions of recipients, donor learning from other donors, and the norms and identities of emerging donors may influence different levels of convergence of aid models. In terms of recipient perceptions, Chinese aid has generally been appreciated partially because the approach is distinct from the DAC aid model. South Africa has neighboring countries that are cautious about the asymmetric relationship and trade dependency on South Africa. To ease their concerns, South Africa incorporated elements of the DAC aid model, while offering some kind of assistance through the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and DBSA. Donor learning of other models is relevant to South Africa and South Korea. Identities and norms of donors are quite influential in building and re-building the aid models. China has a ‘superpower identity’ and Arab donors have a ‘religious identity’; these outstanding identities and norms underlie their unique aid models, which potentially challenge the established international aid regime. Unlike ‘norm-makers’ in China, middle powers in the South and North, as ‘norm-takers’, follow international aid regimes, regardless of the difference in convergence levels. South Africa balances the DAC aid model with African solidarity, while South Korea, as a full member of DAC, may promote strong convergence. |
| Keywords: | international aid regime , DAC , convergence , aid models , norms and identities |
| Date: | 2015–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:106&r=all |
| By: | Christopher Cotton (Queen's University); Arnaud Dellis (UQAM) |
| Abstract: | We challenge the prevailing view that pure informational lobbying (in the absence of political contributions and evidence distortion or withholding) leads to better informed policymaking. In the absence of lobbying, the policymaker may prioritize the more-important or ex ante more-promising issues. Recognizing this, interest groups involved with other issues can have an incentive to lobby, in order to change the issues that the policymaker learns about and prioritize. We identify two channels through which informational lobbying is detrimental, in the sense of leading to worse policy and possibly less-informed policy choices. First, it can cause the policymaker to give priority to less important issues with active lobbies, rather than the issues that are more-important to his constituents. Second, lobbying by interest groups on issues with ex ante less-promising reforms may crowd out information collection by the policymaker on issues with more-promising reforms. The analysis fully characterizes the set of detrimental lobbying equilibria under two alternative types of issue asymmetry. |
| Keywords: | Lobbying, agenda setting, information collection, persuasion, information crowd out, political influence, interest groups |
| JEL: | D72 D78 D83 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1348&r=all |
| By: | Mauricio Oyarzo (Departamento de Economia, Universidad Catolica del Norte); Gianni Romani (Departamento de Administracion, Universidad Catolica del Norte); Miguel Atienza (Departamento de Economia, Universidad Catolica del Norte); Marcelo Lufin (Departamento de Economia, Universidad Catolica del Norte) |
| Abstract: | This work investigates the spatio-temporal persistence of municipal rates of business startups in Chile between 2005 and 2011, using the database of the Internal Revenue Service (SII). The analysis was made with descriptive statistical, non-parametric tests and econometric models. The results show persistent spatio-temporal clusters, representing favorable and unfavorable environments for entrepreneurship, as well as a high probability of any municipality remaining in the same cluster. The factors that explain persistence reveal distinct effects on start-up creation for each level of municipal entrepreneurship, which suggests the need for policies that take into account the spatial differences in entrepreneurial dynamism. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, regional development, spatio-temporal persistence, spatial clusters |
| JEL: | M13 R11 R1 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201508&r=all |
| By: | Gabriel Garber; Márcio Issao Nakane |
| Abstract: | Visanet monopolized Visa merchant acquiring activities in Brazil while Redecard did the same for MasterCard, until the industry was under authorities’ scrutiny and exclusivity was broken in mid-2010. In this paper, we perform two main tasks. First, we use the knowledge of part of the marginal cost specific to this industry (the interchange fee) to identify markup and marginal cost using individual merchant data. Then, we use this framework to evaluate the impact of the change of the environment on these price components. We find sizable reduction in markup as a result of increased competition. |
| Keywords: | Credit cards; two-sided markets; price discrimination |
| JEL: | L41 L12 L13 D22 |
| Date: | 2015–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2015wpecon16&r=all |
| By: | Rémi Beulque (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Franck Aggeri (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Au moment où le concept d’économie circulaire et la transition vers ce modèle semblent s’implanter durablement dans le débat public, se posent notamment la question de la forme que pourrait prendre cette transition en termes de mutations de logiques de création de valeur et celle des business models innovants qui pourraient incarner cette nouvelle économie. Si les objectifs de l’économie circulaire – décorréler durablement croissance économique et impacts environnementaux - et les stratégies à mobiliser pour modifier le système économique dans cette direction -économie de la fonctionnalité, maintenance, réemploi, remanufacturing ou encore recyclage- ont été étudiés, les mutations des logiques de création de valeur qui caractérisent le renforcement du niveau de circularité d’un secteur économique restent peu étudiés par la recherche académique. Il en va de même pour les business models circulaires (BMC), définis comme la manière dont les entreprises créent, délivrent et capturent de la valeur à partir des stratégies circulaires décrites en amont, qui restent un objet de recherche émergent, tant dans le champ de l’économie circulaire que dans la communauté académique étudiant les business models (BM). Nous analyserons ces phénomènes, au travers d’une étude de l’économie de la fin de vie automobile. Cette dernière est en effet aujourd’hui caractérisée par un haut niveau de circularité comparée à d’autres secteurs, et a vu ses acteurs développer l’ensemble des stratégies circulaires citées en amont. L’outil BM nous permettra de caractériser ce qui a longtemps été la logique unique, sinon dominante (Sabatier et al., 2012) du secteur : une économie fondée sur des BM de type prédatifs. A l’image de la démarche suivie par certains chercheurs (Moyon et Lecocq, 2013), nous mobiliserons également le BM pour rendre compte de l’évolution des pratiques stratégiques du secteur. Enfin, nous utiliserons la notion de BM pour apporter des éléments de caractérisation de deux types de BMC, en lien avec le recyclage et le réemploi, à travers le modèle RCOV (Demil et Lecocq, 2010), fondés sur une économie de la qualité et une ingénierie de filière poussée. A partir de ce cas d’étude, nous montrerons comment une économie plus circulaire peut émerger, à partir d’une multiplication des logiques disruptives de création de valeur, qui créent de nouvelles interactions entre entreprises de secteurs distincts, auparavant disjoints, cette dynamique se traduisant par un renforcement progressif des écosystèmes d’affaire (EA) liés à la fin de vie. Enfin, nous soulignerons le besoin accru de nouveaux dispositifs de pilotage de l’action collective que ce nouveau contexte fait naître. |
| Date: | 2015–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01168201&r=all |
| By: | Agarwal, Vikas; Ma, Linlin; Mullally, Kevin |
| Abstract: | We examine the determinants and consequences of mutual fund managers simultaneously managing multiple funds. Well-performing managers multitask by taking over poorly performing funds or launching new funds. Subsequent to multitasking, funds run by managers prior to multitasking (i.e., incumbent funds) experience performance deterioration while the performance of the acquired funds improves. Multitasking increases the assets of fund companies but results in a wealth transfer from shareholders of the incumbent funds to those of the funds the managers take over. Multitasking arrangements are terminated when investors recognize the associated agency problem and withdraw their capital from the incumbent funds. |
| Keywords: | Multitasking,Fund Performance,Fund Flows,Agency Problems |
| JEL: | G10 G20 G23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1310r&r=all |
| By: | James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); David L. Sjoquist (Department of Economics, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | The "Great Recession" lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, and it wreaked havoc on the revenues of state (and local) governments. While the U.S. economy has improved since the end of the Great Recession, state government revenues have in most cases still not completely recovered. We use various indicators to measure how different states have -- or have not -- recovered in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and we also attempt to explain why these different patterns of recovery have emerged. Overall, we find that some, but far from all, state governments have recovered the revenue they lost during the Great Recession. We also find that there is no single causal explanation for recovery that applies to all state governments. |
| Keywords: | recession, state government finance, local government finance |
| JEL: | H12 H20 H71 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1408&r=all |
| By: | Grover, Vaibhav |
| Abstract: | In this study we have examined that assets returns in Indian markets do not follow an elliptical dependence structure; asymmetric tail dependence can be observed among asset returns particularly when the assets exhibit downside returns in a bearish market. We have used Elliptical, Archimedean and Canonical Vine copulas to model such dependence structure in large portfolios. Using certain goodness-of-fit tests we find that Archimedean copulas are insufficient to model the dependence among assets in a large portfolio. We have also compared copula models using an out-of-sample Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation and comparing results to the historical data. It is observed that the Canonical Vine copulas consistently capture the variation in weekly and daily VaR values. |
| Keywords: | copula, vine copulas, Value-at-Risk |
| JEL: | G17 |
| Date: | 2015–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66302&r=all |
| By: | Alexandra, Lina A. |
| Abstract: | Two decades after its inception in the Human Development Report 1994, the Human Security (HS) concept has gained certain traction among the policymakers as well as the civil society. Some stakeholders have welcomed the concept as a useful tool for elevating some issues that posed significant challenges to the security of the individuals within a country or more than a country at the same time. But some others consider the concept as too broad and all-encompassing, which needs more clarification in terms of its application, to take up some issues as security concerns. Therefore, it is timely to check the understanding on this HS so far and to what extent the concept has been considered suitable and useful to deal with challenges that may be considered as new or non- traditional security concerns. This paper aims to elaborate on the perception of different stakeholders on HS in Indonesia. The perception covers aspects such as definition of HS in relation to three basic elements, i.e., freedom from want, freedom from fear, and freedom to live in dignity; priority issues; protection and empowerment; and cross-border characteristics. It also examines sovereignty and the involvement of military instrument questions in dealing with issues that fall under the HS discussion. The study is based on in-depth interviews with different stakeholders that included policymakers (high-rank officials), ex-military officers, academics, and non-governmental organization activists. The paper is divided into three sections. The first section begins with an introduction of the HS concept, the research methodology, and some results of a survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on the perception of HS among the society. The second section broadly examines several acts/regulations that contain elements related to HS. It is interesting to note that while many regulations have been enacted to ensure freedom from want, freedom from fear, and freedom to live in dignity, none of the regulations actually include the word “Human Security.” This somehow may reflect a level of hesitancy among the policymakers to fully embrace the concept and use it as a policy tool, due to some perceptions on the intentions behind the delivery of the HS concept and in what direction that concept is heading to. These different perceptions of HS are then elaborated in the third section. Finally, it is hoped that this elaboration may provide a better knowledge of how the HS concept is being perceived in Indonesia. |
| Date: | 2015–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:99&r=all |
| By: | Michala Moravcova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of German macroeconomic news announcements on the Czech financial market – as proxied by EUR/CZK exchange rate returns – over three sub-periods: the financial crisis period (2008–2009), the post-crisis period (2010–11/2013) and the currency intervention period (11/2013-2014). Both symmetric and asymmetric models from the class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are applied. Macroeconomic shocks (GDP, ZEW, IFO, factory orders, industrial production, Purchasing manager’s indexes (PMI) from service and production sectors) are constructed as deviations form expected values. The results suggest that announcement of German GDP and IFO index calm the exchange rate volatility during the 7-year total examined time period. Splitting the time series into 3 individual sub-periods the results suggest that announcements of GDP, factory orders decrease and announcements of industrial production, IFO index increase the conditional volatility during financial crises. Furthermore, announcements of GDP and ZEW index calm the exchange rate’s conditional volatility during the post-crises period. Finally, announcements of GDP data and PMI index form production sector increase conditional variance during the central bank’s currency interventions. Moreover, announcement of higher IFO index depreciates the CZK value during the post-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate volatility, heteroscedasticity, GARCH, EGARCH, macroeconomic news |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2015_21&r=all |
| By: | Christophe Tavéra (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Jean-Christophe Poutineau (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Isabelle Cadoret-David (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Arthur Charpentier (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Chantal Guéguen (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Maryline Huchet-Bourdon (Agrocampus Ouest UMR 1302 - SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - Agrocampus Ouest); Julien Licheron (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Guillaume L'Oeillet (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Nathalie Payelle (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); Sébastien Pommier (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a meta-analysis of 1651 point estimates of Feldstein and Horioka saving retention coefficient from 49 peer-reviewed papers published over three decades. We get two main results. First, correcting for publication bias, we find a consistent underlying coefficient lying between 0.56 and 0.67 for studies using the original paper. Second, heterogeneity reported in the estimates of the Feldstein and Horioka can be explained by a few main factors. In particular, we find evidence that the saving retention coefficient is systematically underestimated with models written in first difference, models using the saving ratio or the current account ratio as the dependent variable instead of the investment ratio, and models including indicators of the public deficit or indicators of the country size as additional explanatory variables. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01112088&r=all |
| By: | Sari Kerr; William R. Kerr; Ramana Nanda |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between house prices and entrepreneurship using micro data from the US Census Bureau. Increases in house prices are often thought to drive entrepreneurship through unlocking the collateral channel for bank loans, but this interpretation is challenged by worries regarding omitted variable biases (e.g., rising local demand) or wealth effects (i.e., that people with more valuable homes are more likely to enter entrepreneurship for reasons other than access to collateral). We construct an empirical environment that utilizes very localized price changes, exploits variations in initial home values across residents in the same zip code, and embeds multiple comparisons (e.g., owners vs. renters, homestead exemption laws by state). For the United States during the 2000-2004 period, the link of home prices to the rate of entrepreneurship through home equity channels is modest in economic magnitude. This is despite a focus on a time period that experienced the largest concentration of US home price growth over the last two decades. Even when we do connect home equity to entrepreneurship, part of the effect is linked to an increased demand for entrepreneurship. While housing collateral plays a role in the entry that we observe, it does not seem to be a major barrier to entrepreneurship in our context. |
| JEL: | E44 G21 L26 M13 R12 R31 R32 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21458&r=all |
| By: | Gorkem Bostanci (University of Pennsylvania); Kamil Yilmaz (Koc University) |
| Abstract: | We apply the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness index methodology on sovereign credit default swaps (SCDSs) to estimate the network structure of global sovereign credit risk. In particular, using the elastic net estimation method, we separately estimate networks of daily SCDS returns and volatilities for 38 countries between 2009 and 2014. Our results reveal striking differences between the network structures of returns and volatilities. In SCDS return networks, developing and developed countries stand apart in two big clusters. In the case of the SCDS volatility networks, however, we observe regional clusters among emerging market countries along with the developed-country cluster. We also show that global factors are more important than domestic factors in the determination of SCDS returns and volatilities. Finally, emerging market countries are the key generators of connectedness of sovereign credit risk shocks while severely problematic countries as well as developed countries play relatively smaller roles. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Credit Default Swaps, Sovereign Credit Risk, Systemic risk, Connectedness, Network Estimation, Lasso, Elastic Net, Vector Autoregression, Variance Decomposition. |
| JEL: | F34 G15 C32 G22 F36 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1515&r=all |
| By: | Diamond, John W. (James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University); Zodrow, George R. (Rice University and Centre for Business Taxation, Oxford University) |
| Abstract: | The reports of several recent commissions focusing on deficit and debt reduction have suggested curtailing or eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction (MID). This paper examines the economic effects of such proposals to eliminate or curtail the MID. We use a dynamic, overlapping generations, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to simulate both the short run and long run macroeconomic effects of such proposals, including their effects on the housing market, such as changes in housing prices, housing investment and the housing capital stock, and the mix of owner-occupied and rental housing. We also estimate the changes in tax liability by age and income group due to these changes in the MID, taking into account differences across households in whether they itemize and in the marginal tax rate at which the MID is taken, as well as the portfolio reallocations that would be expected to occur as households decide to pay down mortgage debt once the tax advantages of the MID are reduced or eliminated. In addition, we estimate how the reforms would affect the housing user cost of capital, and include estimates of the effects of eliminating or curtailing the MID for a few representative households. Finally, we also perform some rough supplemental "off-model" calculations to estimate the effects of the simulated reform-induced reductions in housing prices on the number of households with negative equity and the numbers of these homes that might be expected to end up in foreclosure proceedings. |
| JEL: | H24 H31 R21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-011&r=all |
| By: | Phan, Diep (Beloit College); Coxhead, Ian (University of WI) |
| Abstract: | Education and economic growth are highly complementary, especially in middle-income economies. In this chapter we review the performance and prospects for education in developing Southeast Asian countries. The prior Northeast Asian experience underlines the importance of investing in human capital ahead of growth in demand. Other than in Singapore, Southeast Asia's record is much less bright in this regard. In most of the region, shortages of qualified skilled workers threaten to impede transitions through middle income. The one exception is the Philippines, a remittance-oriented economy where growth in the supply of skills has long exceeded expansion of domestic demand. We begin with a brief summary of basic data on educational achievement, public funding and access. We then present more detailed discussions on two contemporary issues: the influence of rapidly changing economic conditions on returns to educational investments, especially as the region's economy becomes more closely integrated in Asian and global production systems; and the potential impediments to human capital accumulation posed by limited demand for education. Demand is constrained by opportunity cost, and in some cases by distortions in the market for capital, a factor complementary with skills. We conclude with a brief assessment of the regional outlook for human capital growth and implications for economic development and policy. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:wisagr:574&r=all |
| By: | Arellano, Cristina (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Atkeson, Andrew (UCLA and NBER); Wright, Mark L. J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The recent debt crises in Europe and the U.S. states feature similar sharp increases in spreads on government debt but also show important differences. In Europe, the crisis occurred at high government indebtedness levels and had spillovers to the private sector. In the United States, state government indebtedness was low, and the crisis had no spillovers to the private sector. We show theoretically and empirically that these different debt experiences result from the interplay between differences in the ability of governments to interfere in private external debt contracts and differences in the flexibility of state fiscal institutions. |
| Keywords: | Debt crises; Sudden stops; Interference with private contracts; Tax flexibility |
| JEL: | F3 H7 K1 |
| Date: | 2015–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2015-05&r=all |
| By: | Bénédicte H. Apouey (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)) |
| Abstract: | Introduction. Dans le contexte du vieillissement de la population, il semble important de mieux comprendre comment les inégalités sociales de santé évoluent au cours de la vie. Cet article s’intéresse à la corrélation entre le statut socioéconomique et la santé et au changement de cette corrélation avec l’âge. Matériel-Méthodes. Les données proviennent de l’Enquête sur la Santé et la Protection Sociale entre 2004 et 2012. L’échantillon contient des individus âgés de 20 à 65 ans et compte environ 40000 observations. Le statut socioéconomique est mesuré par le niveau d’éducation et de revenu, tandis que la santé est quantifiée à l’aide de la variable de santé subjective. Les modèles économétriques régressent la santé sur le statut socioéconomique d’une part, et sur un ensemble de termes d’interaction entre le statut socioéconomique et les groupes d’âge d’autre part. Les régressions tiennent compte des caractéristiques démographiques des individus ainsi que de leur cohorte de naissance. Résultats. Le statut socioéconomique est positivement corrélé à l’état de santé. L’association entre revenu et santé commence par se renforcer au début de l’âge adulte, avant d’atteindre un palier, puis de décroître après 55 ans. Discussion-Conclusion. Les inégalités sociales de santé se renforcent, se stabilisent, puis s’affaiblissent à l’âge adulte en France. Ces changements pourraient trouver leur source dans les styles de vie et les conditions de travail. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01155138&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Daniel Rinaudo (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews existing long term water demand forecasting methodologies. Based on an extensive literature review, it shows that the domain has benefited from contributions by economists, engineers and system modelers, producing a wide range of tools, many of which have been tested and adopted by practitioners. It illustrates, via three detailed case studies in the USA, the UK and Australia, how different tools can be used depending on the regulatory context, the water scarcity level, the geographic scale at which they are deployed and the technical background of water utilities and their consultants. The chapter reviews how practitioners address three main challenges, namely the integration of land use planning with demand forecasting; accounting for climate change; and dealing with forecast uncertainty. It concludes with a discussion of research perspectives in that domain. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01183853&r=all |
| By: | Sorhage, Christoph |
| Abstract: | Fund families strategically shape their member funds' behavior to target specific groups of investors with varying performance and service needs. In this paper I introduce a new measure to identify performance-oriented and service-oriented funds. Matching theories from the industrial organization literature, I suggest that funds whose families outsource the execution of services unrelated to portfolio management to external specialists are the same funds with an emphasis on their core business portfolio management. I find an outperformance of serviceoutsourced funds that is robust to a range of alternative explanations. Moreover, I show evidence that service-outsourced funds indeed possess superior investment skills. |
| Keywords: | Mutual funds,Fund performance,Outsourcing,Shareholder services |
| JEL: | G23 L22 L84 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1404r2&r=all |
| By: | Karlan, Dean (Yale University and Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab); Ratan, Aishwarya Lakshmi (Yale University and Innovations for Poverty Action); Zinman, Jonathan (Dartmouth College and Innovations for Poverty Action) |
| Abstract: | The poor can and do save, but often use formal or informal instruments that have high risk, high cost, and limited functionality. This could lead to undersaving compared to a world without market or behavioral frictions. Undersaving can have important welfare consequences: variable consumption, low resilience to shocks, and foregone profitable investments. We lay out five sets of constraints that may hinder the adoption and effective usage of savings products and services by the poor: transaction costs, lack of trust and regulatory barriers, information and knowledge gaps, social constraints, and behavioral biases. We discuss each in theory, and then summarize related empirical evidence, with a focus on recent field experiments. We then put forward key open areas for research and practice. |
| JEL: | D12 D91 G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:118&r=all |
| By: | Martin Halla; Susanne Pech; Martina Zweimüller |
| Abstract: | Social insurance programs typically comprise sick leave insurance. An important policy parameter is how the cost of sick leave are shared between workers, firms, and the social security system. We show that this sharing rule affects not only absence behavior, but also workers’ subsequent health. To inform our empirical analysis we propose a simple model, where workers’ absence decision is taken conditional on the sharing rule, health, and a dismissal probability. Our empirical analysis is based on high-quality administrative data sources from Austria. Identification is guaranteed by idiosyncratic variation in the sharing rule (caused by different policy reforms and sharp discontinuities at certain tenure levels and firm sizes). An increase in either the workers’ or the firms’ cost share (both at the public expense) decrease the number of sick leave days. Variations in the workers’ cost are quantitatively more important (by a factor of about two). Policy-induced variation in sick leave has a significant effect on subsequent health (care cost). The average worker in our sample is in the domain of presenteeism, i. e. an increase in sick leave (due to reductions in the workers’ or the firms’ cost share) would reduce health care cost. |
| Keywords: | Statutory sick-pay regulations, sick leave, presenteeism, absenteeism, moral hazard, health care cost. |
| JEL: | I18 J22 J38 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:cdlwps:wp1504&r=all |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | This study explored the degree of inflation persistence in Thailand using both monthly headline and sectoral CPI indices during the 1985-2012 period. The results showed that the degree of inflation persistence for the headline inflation did not exist under the fixed exchange rate regime, even though some sectoral inflation series exhibited persistence. Under the floating regime, the headline inflation persistence was low, but various sectoral inflation rates showed low to moderate persistence. Therefore, inflation persistence for the entire sample period was caused by the switch from fixed to floating regime. Furthermore, there seemed to be no monetary accommodation of inflation persistence under the floating regime. Based upon the results from this study, inflation targeting implemented in May 2000 to combat inflation might not fully reduce inflation to the target of price stability. |
| Keywords: | Inflation persistence, exchange rate regimes, monetary policy, inflation targeting |
| JEL: | C22 E31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66203&r=all |
| By: | André De Palma (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X, ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan); Robin Lindsey (Sauder - Sauder School of Business [British Columbia] - University of British Columbia); Nathalie Picard (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | Most traffic congestion models assume that agents make trip-timing decisions independently and receive payoffs at the origin and destination that do not depend on whether other agents are present. We depart from this paradigm by considering a variant of Vickrey's bottleneck model of the morning commute in which individuals live as couples and value time at home more when together than when alone. We show that the costs of congestion can be higher than for a comparable population of individuals living alone. The costs can be even higher if spouses collaborate with each other when choosing their departure times. To calibrate the model we estimate trip-timing preferences for married and unmarried men and women in the Greater Paris region. Jel Classifications: D11, D70, R41. |
| Date: | 2015–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01117732&r=all |
| By: | Alice Nsenkyire (Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus); Glenn P. Jenkins (Queen’s University, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus); Mikhail Miklyaev (Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus); Octave Semwaga (Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | In April 2012, Kinazi Cassava Plant was established as a government initiative to produce high quality cassava flour, and other value added cassava products. After the successful establishment of the cassava flour plant in Ruhango district, KCP now plans to diversify into cassava starch production to feed the emerging manufacturing industries such as the pharmaceuticals, food processing, breweries, textiles etc. both domestically and for exportation. The study assesses the financial and economic viability, the stakeholder impact and the risk inherent in establishing the Kinazi Cassava Starch Plant in Rwanda. The deterministic results from the analysis indicate that the project sponsors will earn a rate of return greater than the opportunity cost of funds. Additionally, large net economic benefits will accrue to Rwanda in the form of tax revenue generated directly and indirectly through the export sales of cassava starch. The identified stakeholders who benefit from the project are the owners of the project, the government and labour who benefit in the form of profits, tax revenue and higher wages respectively. The risk analysis conducted revealed that changes in certain critical input variables (real exchange rate, real price of cassava tubers, price of cassava starch, investment cost over-run and production capacity utilization) cause project outcomes to increase or decrease significantly. |
| Keywords: | Financial analysis, economic analysis, risk analysis, cassava starch production, Rwanda |
| JEL: | D61 N57 G32 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:282&r=all |
| By: | Kubo, Koji |
| Abstract: | Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily two–way auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms to the foreign exchange regime, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal market rate. First, a VAR analysis indicates that the official rate did not Granger cause the informal rate. Second, GARCH models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | Myanmar, Foreign exchange, Monetary policy, Foreign exchange auctions, Informal market rate, GARCH model |
| JEL: | E65 F31 O24 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper532&r=all |
| By: | Silvia Cruz (State University of Campinas Campinas); Faïz Gallouj (CLERSE - CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies); Sônia Paulino (University of Sao Paolo) |
| Abstract: | This paper is devoted to public services innovation in the municipal solid waste sector. It analyses the implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in the Bandeirantes and São João landfills in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil. The analysis is based on the concept of Public-Private Innovation Networks in services (ServPPINs). Using the ServPPIN concept it was possible to identify competence gaps affecting the stakeholders involved in these CDM projects. We focus in particular on those organisational and relational competence gaps that are likely to weaken innovation feasibility and reduce the quality of solid waste services supply. In fact, innovation is closely linked to the development of new competences among service providers and users. For the most part, these will arise out of changes in interactions between actors-given that the projects in question include the coordination of various actors (public, private, and citizen). Such innovations will also arise out of changes in the environmental aspect, since in addition to monitoring of the technical parameters required for the general operation of landfills which implement CDM projects, auditing is also carried out by the Designated Operational Entities (DOE), which are responsible for validation of these projects. |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01133824&r=all |
| By: | Nigel Roome (Vlerick Management School); Céline Louche (Audencia) |
| Abstract: | Scholars increasingly recognise that business contributions to sustainable development are founded in new business models. However, most research in this field remains conceptual and offers a rather static view of a complex and dynamic reality. This article contributes to understanding how new business models for sustainability are fashioned through the interactions between individuals and groups inside and outside companies. Based on two case studies, our findings show that three elements contributed to the path of transformation toward business models for sustainability: building networks and collaborative practices for learning and action around a new vision, the deployment of new concepts drawn from outside the company, and elaborating an implementation structure within a reconfigured network. Our findings reveal the complexity of the process, which went through four subprocesses: identifying, translating, embedding, and sharing. Our results also highlight the importance of considering value destruction as well as new ways to create and capture value. |
| Date: | 2015–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01183743&r=all |
| By: | Eraslan, Hulya (Rice University); Kosar, Gizem (Johns Hopkins University); Li, Weli (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Sarte, Pierre-Daniel (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | We compile a novel dataset from bankruptcy court dockets recorded in Delaware between 2001 and 2002. We use this data to estimate a structural model of Chapter 13 bankruptcy. This allows us to quantify how key debtor characteristics, including monthly housing expenses, whether they are experiencing bankruptcy for the first time, their past due secured debt at the time of filing, and income in excess of that required for basic maintenance, affect the distribution of creditor recovery rates. The analysis further reveals that changes in debtors' conditions during bankruptcy play a nontrivial role in governing Chapter 13 outcomes, including their ability to obtain a financial fresh start. Our model predicts that the more stringent provisions of Chapter 13 recently adopted, in particular those that force subsets of debtors to file for long-term plans, do not materially raise creditor recovery rates. This finding also arises in the context of alternative policy experiments that require bankruptcy plans to meet stricter standards in order to be confirmed by the court. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-030&r=all |
| By: | Gopinath, Gita (Harvard University); Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (University of Maryland); Karabarbounis, Loukas (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina (ESADE - Universitat Ramon Llull) |
| Abstract: | Following the introduction of the euro in 1999, countries in the South experienced large capital inflows and low productivity. We use data for manufacturing firms in Spain to document a significant increase in the dispersion of the return to capital across firms, a stable dispersion of the return to labor across firms, and a significant increase in productivity losses from misallocation over time. We develop a model of heterogeneous firms facing financial frictions and investment adjustment costs. The model generates cross-sectional and time-series patterns in size, productivity, capital returns, investment, and debt consistent with those observed in production and balance sheet data. We illustrate how the decline in the real interest rate, often attributed to the euro convergence process, leads to a decline in sectoral total factor productivity as capital inflows are misallocated toward firms that have higher net worth but are not necessarily more productive. We conclude by showing that similar trends in dispersion and productivity losses are observed in Italy and Portugal but not in Germany, France, and Norway. |
| Keywords: | Misallocation; Productivity; Dispersion; Capital flows; Europe |
| JEL: | D24 E22 F41 O16 O47 |
| Date: | 2015–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:728&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Kirsten Thompson (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we test the forecasting ability of three estimated financial conditions indices (FCIs) with respect to key macroeconomic variables of output growth, inflation and interest rates. We do this by forecasting the aforementioned macroeconomic variables based on the information contained in the three alternative FCIs using a Bayesian VAR (BVAR), nonlinear logistic vector smooth transition autoregression (VSTAR) and nonparametric (NP) and semi-parametric (SP) regressions, and compare the results with the standard benchmarks of random-walk, univariate autoregressive and classical VAR models. The three FCIs are constructed using rolling-window principal component analysis (PCA), dynamic model averaging (DMA) in the context of a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model, and a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with constant factor loadings. Our results suggest that the VSTAR model performs best in the case of forecasting manufacturing production and inflation, while a SP specification proves to be the best for forecasting the interest rate. More importantly, statistics testing for significant differences in forecast errors across models corroborate the finding of superior predictive ability of the nonlinear models. |
| Keywords: | Financial conditions index; dynamic model averaging; nonlinear logistic smooth transition vector autoregressive model; |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-06.pdf&r=all |
| By: | John X. LAMBINO |
| Abstract: | The paper considers the interaction of the dual elements of the nation-state: territory and people. Particularly, it discusses the interaction of geopolitics and migration, i.e. the non-mobile territory and the mobile people, from the perspectives of political-security, economy, and culture, and how the interactions influence government policy focusing on the case of the Philippines.The paper ferrets-out the major factors in the geopolitical transformation of the Philippine Is-lands into the westernmost frontier of the United States, and how this geopolitical transformation created a migratory linkage from the Philippine Islands to the United States. The paper shows how migratory movements shaped the geopolitics of East Asia or Western Pacific before World War II by pointing out the following. One: The westward expansion of the American people ini-tially changed the geopolitical conditions in the American continent, and eventually changed the geopolitical make-up in the Western Pacific. Two: The migration of Filipinos to the United States was a key factor in the granting of Philippine independence, thereby reshaping the geopo-litical conditions in the Western Pacific region.The paper shows that the geopolitical transformation of the Philippine Islands came with the im-plantation of American culture and English language. The paper discusses how this cultural as-pect has functioned in terms of a migratory linkage by looking at the current migratory pattern of Filipinos. The paper then shows how the economic agreement the Philippines signed with the United States in 1946 to attain independence eventually led to the establishment of a migratory system as the Philippine government adopted of a labor export policy in the 1970s. The paper further shows the importance of remittances from overseas Filipinos to the Philippine economy.The paper elaborates and discusses how the political-security policies undertaken by the Philip-pines have been deeply influenced by both its geopolitical circumstance and the current situation of Filipino migration. Finally, the paper points out that the large presence of Filipinos overseas and the country’s dependence to their remittances are a cause of weakness for the Philippine state in maintaining a credible foreign and security policy. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics in East Asia; Filipino Migration; Nation-state |
| JEL: | J61 F51 F52 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-15-004&r=all |
| By: | Alice Sanwald; Thomas Schober |
| Abstract: | We analyze mortality and follow-up costs of heart attack patients using administrative data from Austria from 2002-2011. As treatment intensity in a hospital largely depends on whether it has a catheterization laboratory, we focus on the effects of patients’ initial admission to these specialized hospitals. To account for the nonrandom selection of patients into hospitals, we exploit individuals’ place of residence as a source of exogenous variation in an instrumental variable framework. We find that the initial admission to specialized hospitals increases patients’ survival chances substantially. The effect on 3-year mortality is -9.5 percentage points. A separation of the sample into subgroups shows the strongest effects in relative terms for patients below the age of 65. We do not find significant effects on longterm inpatient costs and find only marginal increases in outpatient costs. |
| Keywords: | Acute myocardial infarction, mortality, costs, instrumental variables. |
| JEL: | I11 I12 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:cdlwps:wp1503&r=all |
| By: | Aepli, Matthias D.; Frauendorfer, Karl; Fuess, Roland; Paraschiv, Florentina |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces multivariate dynamic copula models to account for the time-varying dependence structure in asset portfolios. We firstly enhance the flexibility of this structure by modeling regimes with multivariate mixture copulas. In our second approach, we derive dynamic elliptical copulas by applying the dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) to multivariate elliptical copulas. The best-ranked copulas according to both in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast performance indicate the importance of accounting for time-variation. The superiority of multivariate dynamic Clayton and Student-t models further highlight that positive tail dependence as well as the capability of capturing asymmetries in the dependence structure are crucial features of a well-fitting model for an equity portfolio. |
| Keywords: | Multivariate dynamic copulas, regime-switching copulas, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, forecast performance, tail dependence. |
| JEL: | C32 C51 C53 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:13&r=all |
| By: | Compton, Janice; Tedds, Lindsay |
| Abstract: | It is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. While historically this seasonal pattern has been linked to exogenous factors, modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice. If birth month of a child is at least partially chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy. This paper explores the effect that the 2001 extension of paid parental leave benefits had on birth seasonality in Canada. Overall we find strong results that the pattern of birth seasonality in Canada changed after 2001, with a notable fall in spring births and an increase in late summer and early fall births. We discuss the potential effects of this unintended consequence, including those related to health and development, educational preparedness and outcomes, and econometric modelling. |
| Keywords: | birth seasonality, policy determinants, parental leave, Canada |
| JEL: | H30 J13 J38 |
| Date: | 2015–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66280&r=all |
| By: | Kurt Kratena |
| Abstract: | A significant reduction of the global environmental consequences of European consumption and production activities are the main objective of the policy simulations carried out in this paper. For this purpose three different modelling approaches have been chosen. Two macroeconomic models following the philosophy of consistent stock-flow accounting for the main institutional sectors (households, firms, banks, central bank and government) are used for quantifying the impact of several different policies. These policies comprise classical tax reforms (pricing of resources and emissions) as well as policies aiming at behavioural change in private and public consumption and at technological change (energy and resource efficiency and renewable sources). A Dynamic New Keynesian (DYNK) model is used for a comparison between classical green tax reform and taxing direct and indirect (footprint) energy and resource use of consumers. An important leading principle of the modelling work is the simultaneous treatment of economic (GDP, employment), social (income distribution, unemployment) and environmental issues. The paper shortly describes the different modelling approaches and highlights the most important features for the evaluation of the impacts of different policies. Then the different policy scenarios that are carried out with each model are described. The policy scenarios are not directly comparable between the different models, but show some similarities. The simulation results of the different policy scenarios are then analyzed and discussed. Two important conclusions can be drawn from the simulation results: (i) important trade-offs and synergies exist between the different economic, social and environmental goals (ii) simple policy scenarios mainly putting all the effort in one simple instrument (e.g. tax reform) are not likely to achieve an optimal result. A combination of instruments is most likely to achieve results satisfying the different economic, social and environmental goals. |
| Keywords: | Behavioural economics, Ecological innovation, Economic growth path, Innovation policy, New technologies |
| JEL: | C54 Q54 B52 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feu:wfedel:y:2015:m:7:d:0:i:8&r=all |
| By: | Bratti, Massimiliano (University of Milan); Mendola, Mariapia (University of Milan Bicocca); Miranda, Alfonso (CIDE, Mexico City) |
| Abstract: | War can have long-lasting effects on individual mental health through war trauma. In this paper, we explore the impact of constantly recalling painful episodes related to the 1992-1995 Bosnia and Herzegovina conflict on individual mental health in 2001 using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Potential endogeneity and reverse causality issues are addressed using objective measures of war intensity recorded at the municipality level. We find that individuals experiencing war trauma have worse mental health six years after the end of the conflict. In particular, instrumental-variable estimates show that they score 16 points (more than 1.5 standard deviations) higher on the CES-D scale (with higher scores meaning more depression symptoms) and have a 60 percentage points higher probability of being at risk of depression. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity checks accounting for individual geographical mobility and different treatment intensities, and suggest that the negative effects on mental health are not mainly mediated by physical health problems. Back-of-the envelope calculations show large economic costs of war-trauma. |
| Keywords: | war trauma, mental health, depression, Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| JEL: | I1 O1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9269&r=all |
| By: | Pan, Yihui (University of UT); Wang, Tracy Yue (University of MN, Twin Cities); Weisbach, Michael S. (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | Risk generated by uncertainty about future management policies appears to affect firms' cost of borrowing. In a sample of S&P 1500 firms between 1987 and 2012, CDS spreads, loan spreads and bond yield spreads all decline over the first three years of CEO tenure, holding other macroeconomic, firm, and security level factors constant. This decline occurs regardless of the reason for the prior CEO's departure. Similar but smaller declines occur following turnovers of CFOs. The spreads are more sensitive to CEO turnover and tenure when the prior uncertainty about the incoming CEO's ability is likely to be higher: when he is not an heir apparent, is an outsider, is younger, or when he does not have a prior relationship with the lender. The spread-tenure sensitivity is also higher when the firm has a higher default risk and when the debt claim is riskier. These patterns are consistent with the view that the decline in spreads in a manager's first three years of tenure reflects the resolution of uncertainty about management. Firms adjust their propensities to issue external debt, precautionary cash holding, and reliance on internal funds in response to these short-term increases in borrowing costs early in their CEOs' tenure. |
| JEL: | G32 G34 M12 M51 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-13&r=all |
| By: | Franz Ruch (South African Reserve Bank); Mehmet Balcilar Author-Name-First Mehmet (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus); Mampho P. Modise (National Treasury, 40 Church Square, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | Forecasting and estimating core inflation has recently gained attention, especially for inflation targeting countries, following research showing that targeting headline inflation may not be optimal; a Central Bank can miss the signal due to the noise. Despite its importance there is sparse literature on estimating and forecasting core inflation in South Africa, with the focus still on measuring core inflation. This paper emphasises predicting core inflation using large time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs), factor augmented VAR, and structural break models using quarterly data from 1981Q1 to 2013Q4. We use mean squared forecast errors (MSFE) and predictive likelihoods to evaluate the forecasts. In general, we find that (i) small TVP-VARs consistently outperform all other models; (ii) models where the errors are heteroscedastic do better than models with homoscedastic errors; (iii) models assuming that the forgetting factor remains 0.99 throughout the forecast period outperforms models that allow for the forgetting factors to change with time; and (iv) allowing for structural break does not improve the predictability of core inflation. Overall, our results imply that additional information on the growth rate of the economy and interest rate is sufficient to forecast core inflation accurately, but the relationship between these three variables needs to be modelled in a time-varying (nonlinear) fashion. |
| Keywords: | Core inflation; forecasting; small- and large-scale vector autoregressive models; constant and time-varying parameters |
| JEL: | C22 C32 E27 E31 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-08.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Joel Cariolle (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI); Michaël Goujon (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Patrick Guillaumont (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI, CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | Monitoring of structural change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) requires examination of the changes in their structural economic vulnerability. This cannot be done by comparing the level of the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) that is calculated for each triennial review of the list of LDCs, because of the change in the design of the index. In this paper, the change in the structural vulnerability of LDCs is assessed according to two retrospective series of EVI, based on constant definitions, those respectively used at the 2006 and 2012 reviews. The real change in structural economic vulnerability is thus isolated from the impact of the changes in the design of the index (components, weighting, methods of calculation, and data updating). According to both retrospective series, structural vulnerability is not only markedly higher in LDCs than in other developing countries, but it shows a later and smaller decline over the period 1990-2011. The declining trend of EVI is due mainly to the trend of the shock sub-index which is more marked in non-LDCs than in LDCs according to both designs. On the other hand, the exposure trend, which declines at a similar rate in LDCs and non LDCs, seems to result from two factors which do not reflect a real structural change in LDCs: a higher population growth and a less rapid increase of the share of population located in low elevation areas. Moreover the change in 2012 of the weighting of the exposure index, together with the addition of the low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) component (at the expense of population size), introduced a bias into the distribution of vulnerability values within the LDC group. It works against dry land countries, which are often threatened by climate change. It also leads to underestimate the increase in the gap between the structural vulnerability of LDCs and non-LDCs. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01109838&r=all |
| By: | Rathke, Alex |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the optimal level of transfer pricing manipulation when the expected tax penalty is a function of the tax enforcement and the market price parameter. The arm’s length principle implies the existence of a range of acceptable prices shaped by market, and firms can manipulate transfer prices more freely if market price range is wide, or if its delimitations are difficult to determine. Home taxation of foreign profits can reduce income shifting incentive, depending on the portion of repatriation for tax purposes. We find that the limited tax credit rule tends to be a less efficient measure, nonetheless it is the most widely adopted rule by countries, so to spark the perspective of more powerful approaches for taxation of foreign profits. |
| Keywords: | income shifting; transfer pricing manipulation; tax penalty cost; foreign profit taxation; tax enforcement; arm’s length principle. |
| JEL: | F23 H26 |
| Date: | 2015–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66133&r=all |
| By: | Thomas André (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | Impact investments are emerging as a new asset class of social finance. These investments intend to create positive societal impact beyond a financial return through the development of social enterprises. Scholars have highlighted the conflicting institutional logics that these later hybrid organizations must face when combining social welfare and profitability. Yet we lack in-depth, systemic insight into how impact investing funds are responding to similar pressures and specifically to the pressure to conform to societal performance management. This paper builds on a three year action-research program conducted with Schneider Electric, a multinational enterprise specialized in energy management. The company initiated and sponsored an impact investing fund targeting energy access ventures in Sub-Saharan Africa, alongside four Development Finance Institutions. The article is grounded in neo-institutional and resource dependence theories to analyze the perceptions of the fund’s managers’ regarding emerging societal performance management procedures they were urged to adopt. The findings suggest a pattern of responses from the fund’s managers starting with passive conformity to external pressures and eventually turning to more resistive compromise with their own investors through interorganizational arrangements. The paper further asserts the establishment of impact investing as an institution in the making with potentially conflicting but not incompatible logics. |
| Date: | 2015–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01180070&r=all |
| By: | Pan, Yihui (University of UT); Wang, Tracy Yue (University of MN, Twin Cities); Weisbach, Michael S. (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty about management appears to affect firms' cost of borrowing and financial policies. In a sample of S&P 1500 firms between 1987 and 2010, CDS spreads, loan spreads and bond yield spreads all decline over the first three years of CEO tenure, holding other macroeconomic, firm, and security level factors constant. This decline occurs regardless of the reason for the prior CEO's departure. Similar but smaller declines occur following turnovers of CFOs. The spreads are more sensitive to CEO tenure when the prior uncertainty about the CEO's ability is likely to be higher: when he is not an heir apparent, is an outsider, is younger, and when he does not have a prior relationship with the lender. The spread-tenure sensitivity is also higher when the firm has a higher default risk and when the debt claim is riskier. These patterns are consistent with the view that the decline in spreads in a manager's first three years of tenure reflects the resolution of uncertainty about management. Firms adjust their propensities to issue external debt, precautionary cash holding, and reliance on internal funds in response to these short-term increases in borrowing costs early in their CEOs' tenure. |
| JEL: | G32 G34 M12 M51 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2014-14&r=all |
| By: | Sarah J. Prenovitz; Gary R. Cohen; Ronald G. Ehrenberg; George H. Jakubson |
| Abstract: | The Mellon Mays Undergraduate Fellowship Program (MMUF) was established in 1988 to encourage underrepresented minority (URM) students to pursue PhD study with an eye towards entering academia. Fellows have completed PhDs at high rates relative to other students, but they are selected for their interest and potential, so this reflects both the effects of the program and the abilities of the students themselves. In order to understand one impact of the program we investigate its causal effect - how many of its fellows earned PhDs who would not have done so without the MMUF’s support. In this paper we use restricted access administrative data from the Mellon Foundation and the National Science Foundation’s Survey of Earned Doctorates to investigate the effect of the MMUF on PhD completions by underrepresented minority students who graduate from participating institutions. We find no evidence that participation in the program causes a statistically significant increase in the PhD production rate of URM students and increases in larger than 0.4 percentage points lie outside a 95% confidence interval using our unweighted baseline estimates. We also do not find evidence that increasing the intensity of the program by adding more fellows increases the PhD production rate, which is particularly notable as this estimate is upward-biased: the number of fellows likely reflects the strength of the candidate pool in a given year. |
| JEL: | I23 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21451&r=all |
| By: | Cormac Ó Gráda |
| Abstract: | Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is currently the focus of much media attention and policy discussion. A historical perspective on AMR suggests that although the challenge of AMR is real, the doomsday tone of most commentary is unwarranted. That is partly because most of the gains in life expectancy now deemed under threat preceded the antibiotics revolution. A combination of public health measures, rising living standards, and new medical knowledge all played their part in this. Even if AMR increases, the continuing effect of these factors and of new public health measures can limit the negative consequences. Moreover, recent developments suggest that the supply pipeline of new drugs is not quite as dry as usually claimed. The problem for now is not MRSA or malaria but carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria, which pose an urgent threat and on which public funding for research on effective new therapies should concentrate. |
| Keywords: | Infectious disease; Health; Antimicrobial resistance; Economic history |
| JEL: | I N |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201514&r=all |
| By: | Joseph E. Stiglitz |
| Abstract: | This paper, an extension of the Presidential Address to the International Economic Association, evaluates alternative strands of macro-economics in terms of the three basic questions posed by deep downturns: What is the source of large perturbations? How can we explain the magnitude of volatility? How do we explain persistence? The paper argues that while real business cycles and New Keynesian theories with nominal rigidities may help explain certain historical episodes, alternative strands of New Keynesian economics focusing on financial market imperfections, credit, and real rigidities provides a more convincing interpretation of deep downturns, such as the Great Depression and the Great Recession, giving a more plausible explanation of the origins of downturns, their depth and duration. Since excessive credit expansions have preceded many deep downturns, particularly important is an understanding of finance, the credit creation process and banking, which in a modern economy are markedly different from the way envisioned in more traditional models. |
| JEL: | D59 D90 E20 E21 E30 E32 E44 E49 E50 E52 E60 F41 G01 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21444&r=all |
| By: | Alho, Kari E.O. |
| Abstract: | Specifying a structurally built NKM model for EMU, and identifying in it the determinants of the potential output and the short-run cyclical factors, we consider structural reforms and monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area. Especially, we analyse whether structural reforms are deflationary or boost the economy in the short run and create spillovers within the euro area under the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the interest rate. We find that a structural reform towards a more competitive economy by lowering the mark ups in the goods and labour market is beneficial both in the short and long run, and both under normal and the ZLB situation in the financial markets. Coordination of reforms within the euro area is also called for, because the spillovers from reforms are typically negative. The national governments searching for an optimal structural policy can delegate the stabilization efforts to the ECB in a long-run equilibrium, but in the short run this separation does not hold in general. We find that in a recession the reform policy is typically curtailed, while in a boom it initially exceeds the long-run equilibrium of reform activity. Proper fiscal policy can alleviate this problematic feature in structural reform policies. |
| Keywords: | structural reform, EMU, coordination |
| JEL: | E63 E61 F42 |
| Date: | 2015–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:31&r=all |
| By: | Nicole Becker (TU Dortmund, Germany); Kirsten Häger (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Jan Heufer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | In Becker et al. (2013a,b), we proposed a theory to explain giving behaviour in dictator experiments by a combination of selfishness and a notion of justice. The theory was tested using dictator, social planner, and veil of ignorance experiments. Here we analyse gender differences in preferences for giving and notions of justice in experiments using the same data. Similar to Andreoni and Vesterlund (2001), we find some differences in giving behaviour. We find even stronger differences in the notion of justice between men and women; women tend to be far more egalitarian. Using our preference decomposition approach from Becker et al. (2013a) and parametric estimates, we show that differences in the giving behaviour between men and women in dictator experiments are explained by differences in their notion of justice and not by different levels of selfishness. We employ both parametric and non-parametric techniques, and both methods confirm the result. |
| Keywords: | Altruism; Dictator Games; Distribution; Experimental Economics; Gender Differences; Justice; Social Preferences |
| JEL: | C91 D12 D61 D63 D64 J16 |
| Date: | 2015–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150103&r=all |
| By: | Florin Mihai ("Alexandru Ioan Cuza " University); Liviu Apostol ("Alexandru Ioan Cuza " University); Ana-Andreea Ghiurcă ("Alexandru Ioan Cuza " University); Andrea Lămăşanu ("Alexandru Ioan Cuza " University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analysis the disparities between Romanian Counties regarding the spatio-temporal evolution of rural population acces to sanitation services for pre-accession period (2003-2006) and the first two years since Romania is part of the EU-27 (2007-2008) highlighting positive or negative changes occurred in this period.Romanian counties were mapped and divided into five typological classes,using multivariate analysis such as hierarchical cluster analysis method.Each class has different values of rural population served by waste collection services related to the Romania average (expressed in standard deviations).Limited access to sanitation services from rural areas lead to uncontrolled waste disposal.Despite improvement of public access to sanitation services in rural areas compared to 2003 most of population still lack access to waste collection services in 2008.In this context, implementation of the acquis communautaire on municipal waste management is difficult to achieve in rural territory. |
| Date: | 2015–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01166923&r=all |
| By: | Gílson Geraldino Silva Júnior |
| Abstract: | Este Texto para Discusão (TD) analisa as taxas de criação, destruição e rotatividade do emprego no setor privado brasileiro entre 1997 e 2012, conforme proposto por Davis e Haltiwanger (1992), com atenção particular às flutuações após a crise financeira de 2008. Crise esta considerada um choque adverso na economia mundial, com potenciais efeitos sobre o Brasil. A evidência econométrica indica que: i) a criação líquida de emprego e a rotatividade de trabalhadores são pró-cíclicas e a destruição, contracíclica, como esperado; ii) em todo o período, o efeito das flutuações sobre as taxas de criação, destruição e rotatividade do emprego é o mesmo para os estabelecimentos que entraram e saíram da amostra e para os que ficaram; e iii) o efeito pós-2008 não só é distinto nestes dois grupos, como também o efeito pós-2008 positivo sobre os estabelecimentos que ficaram na amostra foi insuficiente para compensar o efeito pós-2008 negativo sobre os estabelecimentos que entraram e saíram da amostra. This paper analyzes the job creation, job destruction and job turnover in the Brazilian private sector between 1997 and 2012 as proposed by Davis and Haltiwanger (1992), with particular attention to fluctuations after the 2008 financial crisis. This crisis is considered an adverse shock in the world economy with potential effects to Brazil. The econometric evidence indicates that 1) job net creation and employee turnover are procyclical and job destruction countercyclical, as expected, 2) throughout the period the effect of fluctuations on the job creation, job destruction and job turnover is even for establishments in and out of the sample and for establishments which were, and 3) the post-2008 effect is not only distinguished these two groups as the post-2008 positive effect on establishments that were in the sample but was insufficient to offset the post-2008 negative effect on establishments in and out of the sample. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2111&r=all |
| By: | Pelenc, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | Few works have tried to articulate the Capability Approach originally developed by Amartya Sen and the Fundamental Human Needs approach developed by Manfred Max-Neef. The goal of this paper is precisely to combine those two approaches in order (i) to build a truly multidimensional framework for assessing well-being and inequalities and (ii) to capture the complexity of human well-being from freedom of choice to needs satisfaction. To test this new framework we have conducted an empirical experimentation with vulnerable teenagers (15-17 years old) living in the suburbs of Paris (Dammarie-les-Lys, France) who suffer strong social exclusion and education difficulties. We have organized participatory workshops and then a questionnaire survey with the vulnerable groups and with a control group in order to assess subjective well-being inequalities. The results clearly demonstrate that the group of vulnerable teenagers suffers inequalities in all dimensions of well-being that we tested. These dimensions correspond to the nine axiological needs (Subsistence, Protection, Affection, Understanding, Participation, Leisure, Creation, Identity, Freedom) and the four existential needs (Being, Having, Doing, Interacting) that Max-Neef identifies in his matrix. Addressing inequalities in all of these dimensions clearly help to operationalize multidimensional well-being assessment. Regarding the theoretical side, on the one hand, our tentative for articulating the two approaches allows us to introduce the two categories of axiological and existential capabilities, to better link the concepts of capabilities, functionings, satisfiers and needs and finally to debate further the idea of a list of well-being dimensions by offering a matrix of ten capabilities. Moreover, the fundamental human approach is complemented by integrating freedom of choice into the conceptualization and assessment of well-being. This allows investigating the potential causes of needs deprivation by using the different parameters that condition the acquisition of capabilities. |
| Keywords: | Capabilities; fundamental human needs; subjective well-being; inequalities; education; vulnerable teenagers |
| JEL: | I24 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2014–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66277&r=all |
| By: | Kaplan, Steven N. (University of Chicago); Sensoy, Berk A. (OH State University) |
| Abstract: | We survey the literature on private equity performance, focusing on venture capital and buyout funds rather than portfolio companies. We describe recent findings on performance measures, average fund returns, risk adjustments, cyclicality and liquidity, persistence, interim returns and self-reported net asset values, the performance of different types of investors in funds, and the links between management contracts and fund returns. Buyout funds have outperformed the S&P 500 net of fees on average by about 20% over the life of the fund. Venture capital funds raised in the 1990s outperformed the S&P 500 while those raised in the 2000s underperformed. The results are consistent across a number of datasets and papers. Before the 2000s, buyout and venture capital fund performance showed strong evidence of persistence. Since 2000, buyout fund persistence has declined, while venture capital fund persistence has remained equally strong. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-10&r=all |
| By: | Lopez, Claude |
| Abstract: | This report first assesses the state of trade finance market in Asia, then it identifies the latest trend. Finally it provides a synopsis of the necessary steps that will help sustain trade growth in emerging Asia and insure its impact on GDP growth. The key points are as follows: (i) the impact of trade liberalization on countries ‘growth is very short lives in absence of financial deregulations, (ii) trade in Asian countries relies heavily on letters of credit (L/Cs) which leaves a lot of unmet credit needs, especially for SMEs, (iii) several alternatives are slowly emerging, from banks (factoring, supply chain finance), but also from non- banks (Global and Regional Value chains and inter-firm trade credit), (iv) on the investors’ side, trade receivable assets (via securitization or direct investment) is considered as an possibly attractive alternative due to new financial regulation and low interest rate, (v) trade receivable assets offer attractive alpha yield opportunities, consistent returns, low volatility, “real Economy” investment and lower defaults rates than any other interest based asset class, and a behavior uncorrelated to the market. Policy recommendations to help expanding lenders and investors/capital pool: streamlining the trade finance process, uniformisation of international regulations, strengthening of the institutions helping to mitigate risk, dematerialization of the process (use of technology) |
| Keywords: | trade finance, securitization, |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F3 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66250&r=all |
| By: | John Cawley; David Frisvold |
| Abstract: | One of the most commonly-proposed policies to address the high prevalence of obesity is a tax on energy-dense foods, in particular sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). This is based on the assumption that such taxes are largely passed through to consumers in the form of higher retail prices, leading to reduced consumption. However, relatively little is known about the extent to which taxes on SSBs are in fact passed through to consumers. We estimate the pass-through of the first city-level tax on SSBs in the U.S., which was enacted by the voters of Berkeley, California in November, 2014. We collected the prices of various brands and sizes of SSBs and other beverages before and after the implementation of the tax from a near-census of convenience stores and supermarkets in Berkeley, California. We also collected prices from stores in a control city: San Francisco, where in 2014 a similar voter referendum failed despite majority support. Estimates from difference-in-differences and other models consistently indicate that there was relatively little pass through of the Berkeley SSB tax to consumers; across brands and sizes, we estimate that retail prices rose by less than half of the amount of the tax. This is in contrast to much of the previous literature on the pass-through of taxes, which tended to find full or even overshifting of taxes. |
| JEL: | H2 H22 H71 I1 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21465&r=all |
| By: | Mila Getmansky; Peter A. Lee; Andrew W. Lo |
| Abstract: | The hedge-fund industry has grown rapidly over the past two decades, offering investors unique investment opportunities that often reflect more complex risk exposures than those of traditional investments. In this article we present a selective review of the recent academic literature on hedge funds as well as updated empirical results for this industry. Our review is written from several distinct perspectives: the investor's, the portfolio manager's, the regulator's, and the academic's. Each of these perspectives offers a different set of insights into the financial system, and the combination provides surprisingly rich implications for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, investment management, systemic risk, financial regulation, and other aspects of financial theory and practice. |
| JEL: | G01 G11 G12 G20 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21449&r=all |
| By: | Jeffrey A. Groen; Mark J. Kutzbach; Anne E. Polivka |
| Abstract: | We study the responsiveness of individuals’ employment and earnings to the damages and disruption caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005. Our analysis is based on individual-level survey and administrative data that tracks workers over time, both in the immediate aftermath of the storm and over a seven-year period. For individuals who were employed at the time of the storm, we estimate models that compare the evolution of earnings for individuals who resided in storm-affected areas and individuals who resided in a set of control counties with pre-storm characteristics similar to those of the storm-affected areas prior to the storm. We find that, on average, the storms reduced the earnings of affected individuals during the first year after the storm. These losses reflect various aspects of the short-run disruption caused by the hurricanes, including job separations, migration to other areas, and business contractions. Starting in the third year after the storms, however, we estimate that the storms increased the quarterly earnings of affected individuals. We provide evidence that the long-term earnings gains experienced by affected individuals were the result of differences in wage growth between the affected areas and the control areas, due to reduced labor supply and increased labor demand, especially in sectors related to rebuilding. Despite short-term earnings losses due to an increased rate of non-employment, we find a net increase in average quarterly earnings among affected individuals over the entire post-storm period. However, subgroups with large and persistent earnings losses after the storms had a net decrease in average quarterly earnings over the seven-year period due to the storms. |
| Keywords: | Disaster, Hurricane, Employment, Earnings, Local Labor Markets, Katrina, Rita |
| JEL: | J6 Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:15-21&r=all |
| By: | Hai, Le Chi; Alam Kazmi, Syed Hasnain |
| Abstract: | Advancements in online shopping for consumers requires consistent government support policies and the introduction of substantial government laws and regulations. In order to establish innovative developments in online shopping market environment that makes online shopping faster and stable, the government perspective is vital with the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) for research and development in online shopping behavior for consumer’s confidence and their purchase intention. The proposed conceptual framework in the study establish that governments’ supports positively impact on perceived ease of online shopping, and positively influence consumer’s online shopping intentions. In addition, the study results are consistent to the empirical researches that focus on perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness that will affect consumer online shopping behavior. |
| Keywords: | government support, technology acceptance model, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, online shopping |
| JEL: | C3 H50 M1 M15 M38 |
| Date: | 2015–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66027&r=all |
| By: | Agarwal, Vikas; Arisoy, Y. Eser; Naik, Narayan Y. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates empirically whether uncertainty about volatility of the market portfolio can explain the performance of hedge funds both in the cross-section and over time. We measure uncertainty about volatility of the market portfolio via volatility of aggregate volatility (VOV) and construct an investable version of this measure by computing monthly returns on lookback straddles on the VIX index. We find that VOV exposure is a significant determinant of hedge fund returns at the overall index level, at different strategy levels, and at an individual fund level. After controlling for a large set of fund characteristics, we document a robust and significant negative risk premium for VOV exposure in the cross-section of hedge fund returns. We further show that strategies with less negative VOV betas outperform their counterparts during the financial crisis period when uncertainty was at its highest. On the contrary, strategies with more negative VOV betas generate superior returns when uncertainty in the market is less. Finally, we demonstrate that VOV exposure-return relationship of hedge funds is distinct from that of mutual funds and is consistent with the dynamic trading of hedge funds and risk-taking incentives arising from performance-based compensation of hedge funds. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty,volatility of volatility,hedge funds,performance |
| JEL: | G10 G11 C13 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1503r&r=all |
| By: | Geuna, Aldo; Shibayama, Sotaro (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of exit from academic research which occurs when academic researchers move into positions in academe which concentrate on non-research activities such as teaching or administration, or when researchers leave academia and move into industry. Drawing on career data for 13,500 Japanese PhD graduates in hard sciences (all scientific fields except social sciences and humanities), we develop a set of econometric models to test the determinants of exit from a career in academic research. We find that academics’ scientific productivity and academic network are negatively correlated with abandoning a university research career, and that female academics, and researchers in less-prestigious universities, tend to exit academic research more easily. Individual and institutional network effects play a role mainly for senior researchers. The results indicate also that the determinants of exit are contingent on scientific field and career stage. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:labeco:201501&r=all |
| By: | Hartley, Peter (Rice University and University of Western Australia); Medlock, Kenneth B., III (Rice University); Temzelides, Ted (Rice University); Zhang, Xinya (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in a neoclassical growth economy with endogenous technological progress in energy production from fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. Innovations keep fossil energy cost under control even as increased exploitation raises mining costs. Nevertheless, the economy eventually transitions to renewable energy. Learning-by-doing in renewable energy production implies that it is optimal to transition to renewable energy before the cost of fossil fuels reaches parity with renewable energy costs. Since energy costs escalate as the transition approaches, growth of consumption and output decline sharply around the transition. The energy shadow price remains more than double current values for over 75 years around the switch time, resulting in a continued drag on output and consumption growth. The model highlights the important role that energy can play in influencing economic growth. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:riceco:14-009&r=all |
| By: | De Giorgi, Giacomo; Ploenzke, Matthew; Rahman, Aminur |
| Abstract: | Firm informality is pervasive throughout the developing world, Bangladesh being no exception. The informal status of many firms substantially reduces the tax basis and therefore impacts the provision of public goods. The literature on encouraging formalization has predominantly focused on reducing the direct costs of formalization and has found negligible impacts of such policies. In this paper, we focus on a stick intervention, which to the best of our knowledge is the first one in a developing country setting that deals with the most direct and dominant form of informality, i.e. registration with the tax authority with a direct link to the country's potential revenue base and thus public goods provision. We implement an experiment in which firms are visited by tax representatives who deliver an official letter from the Bangladesh National Tax Authority stating that the firm is not registered and the consequential punishment if the firm fails to register. We find that the intervention increases the rate of registration among treated firms, while firms located in the same market but not treated do not seem to respond significantly. We also find that only larger revenue firms at baseline respond to the threat and register. Our findings have at least two important policy implications: i. the enforcement angle, which could be an important tool to encourage formalization; and ii. targeting of government resources for formalization to the high-end informal firms. The effects are generally small in levels and this leaves open the question of why many firms still do not register. |
| Keywords: | development.; Firms; informality |
| JEL: | H25 H26 O1 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10779&r=all |
| By: | Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the predictability of 11 industrialized stock returns with emphasis on the role of U.S. returns. Using monthly data spanning 1980:2 to 2014:12, we show that there exist multiple structural breaks and nonlinearities in the data. Therefore, we employ methods that are capable of accounting for these and at the same time date stamping the periods of causal relationship between the U.S. returns and those of the other countries. First we implement a subsample analysis which relies on the set of models, data set and sample range as in Rapach et al. (2013). Our results show that while the U.S. returns played a strong predictive role based on the OLS pairwise Granger causality predictive regression and news-diffusion models, it played no role based on the pooled version of the OLS model and its role based on the adaptive elastic net model is weak relative to Switzerland. Second, we implement our preferred model: a bootstrap rolling window approach using our newly updated data on stock returns for each countries, and find that U.S. stock return has significant predictive ability for all the countries at certain sub-periods. Given these results, it would be misleading to rely on results based on constant-parameter linear models that assume that the relationship between the U.S. returns and those of other industrialized countries are permanent, since the relationship is, in fact, time-varying, and holds only at specific periods. |
| Keywords: | Stock returns; predictability; structural breaks; nonlinearity; time varying causality; |
| JEL: | C32 G10 G15 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-07.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Frederico Ferreira Fonseca Pedroso; Vicente Correia Lima Neto |
| Abstract: | Este Texto para Discussão (TD) tem como objetivo analisar as peculiaridades da gestão de transporte e mobilidade urbana em aglomerações metropolitanas que lhe dão o caráter de função pública de interesse comum e os desafios que isto implica para o seu planejamento em âmbito metropolitano. Realizar-se-á uma análise de estudos de caso a fim de contribuir para a identificação de potenciais falhas no planejamento, na operação e na gestão de sistemas de transporte público de passageiros (STPPs) no Brasil. O estudo, por fim, aponta para problemas de integração e gestão compartilhada, bem como assinala um conflito de atribuições entre os estados, os municípios e a União. Por fim, são realizados três apontamentos: i) que o planejamento integrado dos transportes em regiões metropolitanas (RMs) não deve estar condicionado às políticas de governo; ii) que a falta de integração se dá em razão do pouco ou inexistente compartilhamento dos processos lógicos de planejamento e operação nas diferentes organizações envolvidas na gestão de transportes em uma RM; e iii) o papel fundamental da governança, evitando-se a prevalência de políticas de governo prejudiciais aos sistemas de transporte. This article analyze the transport management and the urban mobility in Brazilian metropolitan areas. The transportation and mobility are considered as a public service of common interest on metropolitan arrangements. The paper conducts an analysis of some case studies in order to contribute to the identification of potential failures on planning and operation procedures in some Brazilian Metropolitan areas. The study points out problems of integration and shared management, and notes a conflict of powers between the states, municipalities and the federal government. Finally, it is made three appointments: i) the integrated planning of transport in metropolitan should be a subject of state policy; ii) the lack of integration occurs by the low share of logical processes of planning and operation in the different organizations involved in transport management in a metropolitan area; and iii) the key role |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2113&r=all |
| By: | Gopi Shah Goda; Matthew R. Levy; Colleen Flaherty Manchester; Aaron Sojourner; Joshua Tasoff |
| Abstract: | There is considerable variation in retirement savings within income, age, and educational categories. Using a broad sample of the U.S. population, we elicit time preference parameters from a quasi-hyperbolic discounting model, and perceptions of exponential growth. We find that present bias (PB), the tendency to value utility in the present over the future in a dynamically inconsistent way, and exponential-growth bias (EGB), the tendency to neglect compounding, are prevalent and distinct latent variables. PB, EGB, and the long-run discount factor are all highly significant in predicting retirement savings, even while controlling for measures of IQ and general financial literacy as well as a rich set of demographic controls. We find that lack of self-awareness of these biases has an additional independent negative impact on retirement savings. We assess potential threats to a causal interpretation of our results with a hypothetical choice experiment and several robustness exercises. Finally, we explore potential mechanisms for our findings. If the relationship we estimate is causal, our estimates suggest that eliminating PB and EGB would be associated with an increase in retirement savings of 12%, or as high as 70% using estimates that account for classical measurement error. |
| JEL: | H0 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21482&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Efobi, Uchenna; Beecroft, Ibukun |
| Abstract: | The paper verifies the Azzimonti et al. (2014) conclusions on a sample of 53 African countries for the period 1996-2008. Authors of the underlying study have established theoretical underpinnings for a negative nexus between rising public debt and inequality in OECD nations. We assess the effects of four debt dynamics on inequality adjusted human development. Instrumental variable and interactive regressions were employed as empirical strategies. Two main findings were established which depend on whether debt is endogenous to or interactive with globalisation. First, when external debt is endogenous to globalisation, the effect on inclusive human development is negative, whereas when it is interactive with globalisation, the effect is positive. This may reflect the false economics of pre-conditions. The magnitudes of negative estimates from endogenous related effects were higher than the positive marginal interactive effects. Policy implications were discussed. |
| Keywords: | Debts,globalisation,inequality,inclusive development,Africa |
| JEL: | E60 F40 F59 D60 O55 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:114570&r=all |
| By: | Shagalov, Igor |
| Abstract: | Taking into consideration the underdevelopment of the Russian civil community it is of essential interest to touch upon local communities (known as TOS). Local governments and TOS communities could provide similar services and as such cooperate or compete with each other. Community initiatives could supplant poorly performing government services, or governments could outsource to communities some of its functions. Based on empirical Russian data, collected in the city of Kirov this research shows that the prevailing initial incentive to establish TOS is driven by the prospect of obtaining seed money from the government. We detected sources of TOS advantages over municipal authorities: ratio of costs and benefits, sensitivity to the demands of consumers, social capital, and voluntary nature of TOS. TOS are more likely to emerge in communities where people are sceptical about the efficacy of conventional mechanisms of democratic accountability, and prefer to collaborate with municipal governments on specific projects |
| Keywords: | TOS, non-profit organization, efficiency, social capital, local authorities, civil community, Russia |
| JEL: | L31 L33 |
| Date: | 2015–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66141&r=all |
| By: | Kristin Reichardt; Karoline S. Rogge; Simona Negro; Marko Hekkert |
| Abstract: | One key approach for studying emerging technologies in the field of sustainability transitions is that of technological innovation systems (TIS). While most TIS studies aim at deriving policy recommendations – typically by identifying system barriers – the actual role of these proposed policies in the TIS is rarely looked at. In addition, often single policy instruments instead of more encompassing policy mixes are considered. We address these shortcomings by applying a more comprehensive policy mix concept within the TIS approach. In doing so we analyze interdependencies between the policy mix and the TIS by shedding light on the role of the policy mix for TIS functioning and performance as well as how TIS developments influence the evolution of the policy mix. We explore these interdependencies for the case of offshore wind in Germany, using data from event history analysis and expert interviews. We find highly dynamic interdependencies with reoccurring patterns of systemic problems and adjustments of the policy mix, which are fuelled by high policy mix credibility and supportive actors. Our study constitutes a first step incorporating the policy mix concept into the TIS approach, thereby enabling a better understanding of real dynamics occurring in TIS. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uis:wpaper:1504&r=all |
| By: | Dieter Hendricks; Tim Gebbie; Diane Wilcox |
| Abstract: | We propose the application of a high-speed maximum likelihood clustering algorithm to detect temporal financial market states, using correlation matrices estimated from intraday market microstructure features. We first determine the ex-ante intraday temporal cluster configurations to identify market states, and then study the identified temporal state features to extract state signature vectors which enable online state detection. The state signature vectors serve as low-dimensional state descriptors which can be used in learning algorithms for optimal planning in the high-frequency trading domain. We present a feasible scheme for real-time intraday state detection from streaming market data feeds. This study identifies an interesting hierarchy of system behaviour which motivates the need for time-scale-specific state space reduction for participating agents. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.04900&r=all |
| By: | Rommel, Jens; Sagebiel, Julian; Müller, Jakob R. |
| Abstract: | Consumers can choose from a wide range of electricity supply contracts, including green power options. Electricity produced from renewable energy involves information asymmetries. With a sample of more than 2,000 German electricity consumers, we tested the proposition of a “lemon market” for renewable energy in a discrete choice experiment. Specifically, we found that, compared to investor-owned firms, additional willingness-to-pay (WTP) for renewable energy is approximately double when offered by cooperatives or municipally-owned electricity utilities. Consumers who are experienced with switching suppliers have an additional WTP of one Eurocent per kilowatt hour for cooperatives and two Eurocents for public enterprises. The results demonstrate that organizational transformation in dynamically-changing electricity markets is not only driven by political initiatives but also by consumers’ choices on the market. Public policy may reduce information asymmetries by promoting government labeling of green energy products. |
| Keywords: | Cooperatives; Discrete Choice Experiment; Germany |
| JEL: | D12 L33 L94 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66195&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Dahmann (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates two mechanisms through which education may affect cognitive skills in adolescence: the role of instructional quantity and the timing of instruction with respect to age. To identify causal effects, I exploit a school reform carried out at the state level in Germany as a quasi-natural experiment: between 2001 and 2007, the academictrack high school (Gymnasium) was reduced by one year in most of Germany's federal states, leaving the overall curriculum unchanged. To investigate the impact of this educational change on students' cognitive abilities, I conduct two separate analyses: first, I exploit the variation in the curriculum taught to same-aged students at academictrack high school over time and across states to identify the effect of the increase in class hours on students' crystallized and fluid intelligence scores. Using rich data on seventeen year-old adolescents from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study, the estimates show that fluid intelligence remained unaffected, while crystallized intelligence improved for male students. Second, I compare students' competences in their final year of high school using data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). The results suggest that students affected by the reform catch up with their non-affected counterparts in terms of their competences by the time of graduation. However, they do not provide any evidence for the timing of instruction to matter in cognitive skill formation. Overall, secondary education therefore seems to impact students' cognitive skills in adolescence especially through instructional time and not so much through agedistinct timing of instruction. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive Skills, Crystallized Intelligence, Fluid Intelligence, Skill Formation, Education, High School Reform |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1504&r=all |
| By: | Francisco Lupiañez (Open Evidence); Cristiano Codagnone (Open Evidence); Rosa Dalet (Block de ideas) |
| Abstract: | This is the final methodological report on the project on 'ICT to support the integration into everyday life of immigrants and minorities'. The research objectives were to describe immigrants’ ICT skills, access, usage, and to explore how they differ with respect to different profiles and broad socio-economic and other personal characteristics such as integration and employability. In order to pursue these objectives, a face-to-face survey was carried out in three countries (Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Spain). A total of 1,653 third country nationals were interviewed. An ad-hoc questionnaire was designed, based on previous studies and official statistics. It was translated into ten different languages so that it covered all the nationalities from the sample. Due to the characteristics of the target group, the dissemination strategy and data collection put special emphasis on the interviewer selection and training process. Face-to-face survey procedures and specific participant recruitment strategies were developed, considering different contact points depending on the characteristics of the target. Descriptive univariate and bivariate statistical analysis as well as multivariate statistical analysis of certain aspects have been carried out. In addition, we have also re-classified the data obtained and constructed two categorical variables: ‘Profile’ that includes as its values five meaningful and homogenous migrant profiles and ‘Connected’ and ‘Non-connected’. |
| Keywords: | Digital single market, connected, immigrants, skills, employability, digital, competences, migration, integration, e-inclusion, digital agenda, information and communication technologies |
| JEL: | I00 I18 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc93956&r=all |
| By: | Anger, Silke; Schnitzlein, Daniel D. |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates sibling correlations in cognitive and non-cognitive skills to evaluate the importance of family background for skill formation. Based on a large representative German dataset including IQ test scores and measures of non-cognitive skills, a restricted maximum likelihood model indicates substantial influences of family background on skill formation. Sibling correlations in non-cognitive skills range from 0.223 to 0.464; therefore, at least one-fifth of the variance in these skills results from sibling-related factors. Sibling correlations in cognitive skills are higher than 0.50; therefore, more than half of the inequality in cognition can be explained by family background. Comparing these findings with those in the intergenerational skill transmission literature suggests that intergenerational correlations capture only part of the influence of family on children's cognitive and non-cognitive skills, as confirmed by decomposition analyses and in line with previous findings on educational and income mobility. |
| Keywords: | Sibling correlations, family background, non-cognitive skills, cognitive skills, intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-561&r=all |
| By: | James D. Hamilton; Ethan S. Harris; Jan Hatzius; Kenneth D. West |
| Abstract: | We examine the behavior, determinants, and implications of the equilibrium level of the real federal funds rate, defined as the rate consistent with full employment and stable inflation in the medium term. We draw three main conclusions. First, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate is large, and its relationship with trend GDP growth much more tenuous than widely believed. Our narrative and econometric analysis using cross-country data and going back to the 19th Century supports a wide range of plausible central estimates for the current level of the equilibrium rate, from a little over 0% to the pre-crisis consensus of 2%. Second, despite this uncertainty, we are skeptical of the “secular stagnation” view that the equilibrium rate will remain near zero for many years to come. The evidence for secular stagnation before the 2008 crisis is weak, and the disappointing post-2008 recovery is better explained by protracted but ultimately temporary headwinds from the housing supply overhang, household and bank deleveraging, and fiscal retrenchment. Once these headwinds had abated by early 2014, US growth did in fact accelerate to a pace well above potential. Third, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate implies that a monetary policy rule with more inertia than implied by standard versions of the Taylor rule could be associated with smaller deviations of output and inflation from the Fed’s objectives. Our simulations using the Fed staff’s FRB/US model show that explicit recognition of this uncertainty results in a later but steeper normalization path for the funds rate compared with the median “dot” in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21476&r=all |
| By: | Liran Einav; Chiara Farronato; Jonathan Levin |
| Abstract: | Peer-to-peer markets such as eBay, Uber, and Airbnb allow small suppliers to compete with traditional providers of goods or services. We view the primary function of these markets as making it easy for buyers to find sellers and engage in convenient, trustworthy transactions. We discuss elements of market design that make this possible, including search and matching algorithms, pricing, and reputation systems. We then develop a simple model of how these markets enable entry by small or flexible suppliers, and the resulting impact on existing firms. Finally, we consider the regulation of peer-to-peer markets, and the economic arguments for different approaches to licensing and certification, data, and employment regulation. |
| JEL: | D02 L86 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21496&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus); Riza Demirer (Department of Economics & Finance Southern Illinois University); Shawkat Hammoudeh (3200 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19104 U.S.A Author-Email: -); Duc Khuong Nguyen (-) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the risk spillovers between energy futures prices and Europe-based carbon futures contracts. We use a Markov regime-switching dynamic correlation, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MSDCC- GARCH) model in order to capture the time variations and structural breaks in the spillovers. We further evaluate the optimal weights, hedging effectiveness, and dynamic hedging strategies for the MS-DCC-GARCH model based on both the regime dependent and regime independent optimal hedge ratios. We finally complement our analysis by examining the in- and out-of sample hedging performances for alternative strategies. Our results mainly show significant volatility and time-varying risk transmission from energy markets to carbon market. We also find that spot and futures segments of the emission markets exhibit time-varying correlations and volatile hedging effectiveness. These results have important investment and policy implications |
| Keywords: | Multivariate regime-switching; time-varying correlations; hedging; CO2 allowance prices |
| JEL: | C32 G11 G19 Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-10.pdf&r=all |
| By: | HASSEN, TOUMI; FAKHRI, ISSAOUI; BILEL, AMMOURI; WASSIM, TOUILI |
| Abstract: | This article aims to detect the dynamic effect of M & A of European banks on productivity during the period from 2005 to 2013. The estimation of our model by the GMM method allowed us to detect the following results. First, in the long term, the European banking structure seems to be submitted to the convergence phenomenon which means that the banking industry will probably governed by monopolistic structures which will share the market equally or nearly equal. Second, the production factors (labour and capital), had positive and significant effects on the banking product. However, the returns to scale are found to be decreasing as long as the sum of the labour coefficient (0.317) of fixed assets (0,132) and liquid assets (0.351) is less than unity. Third, the time had exerted a negative and significant effect on production which questions the validity of the chosen period characterized by the advent of the subprime crisis. Fourthly, the M & A had a significant positive instantaneous effect on production of banks which allows us to affirm that in a pessimistic environment; it seems that the M & A strategies can be effective solutions to overcome the crisis. Fifth, the dynamic effects of M & A are positive and significant on production which means that the advantage of said M & A appears better in the long term as long as in this time horizon the merged banks are more able to realize their mergers reducing the cost of restructuring and to release more than returns to scale. |
| Keywords: | M&A, productivity, dynamic effects, GMM |
| JEL: | G2 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66134&r=all |
| By: | English, William B. (Federal Reserve Board); Van den Heuvel, Skander J. (Federal Reserve Board and University of PA); Zakrajsek, Egon (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | Because they engage in maturity transformation, a steepening of the yield curve should, all else equal, boost bank profitability. We re-examine this conventional wisdom by estimating the reaction of bank stock returns to exogenous fluctuations in interest rates induced by monetary policy announcements. We construct a new measure of the mismatch between the repricing time or maturity of bank assets and liabilities and analyze how the reaction of stock returns varies with the size of this mismatch and other bank characteristics. The results indicate that bank stock prices decline substantially following an unanticipated increase in the level of interest rates or a steepening of the yield curve. A large maturity gap, however, significantly attenuates the negative reaction of returns to a slope surprise, a result consistent with the role of banks as maturity transformers. Share prices of banks that rely heavily on core deposits decline more in response to policy-induced interest rate surprises, a reaction that primarily reflects ensuing deposit disintermediation. Results using income and balance sheet data highlight the importance of adjustments in quantities--as well as interest margins--for understanding the reaction of bank equity values to interest rate surprises. |
| JEL: | E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-05&r=all |
| By: | Atkin, David; Donaldson, Dave |
| Abstract: | How large are the intra-national trade costs that separate consumers in remote locations of developing countries from global markets? What do those barriers imply for the intra-national incidence of the gains from falling international trade barriers? We develop a new methodology for answering these questions and apply it to newly collected CPI micro-data from Ethiopia and Nigeria (as well as to the US). In order to overcome three well-known challenges that arise when using price gaps to estimate trade costs, we: (i) work exclusively with a sample of goods that are identified at the barcode-level (to mitigate bias due to unobserved quality differences over space); (ii) collect novel data on the origin location of each product in our sample (to focus only on the pairs of locations that actually identify trade costs); and (iii) use estimates of cost pass-through to correct for mark-ups that potentially vary over space (to extract trade costs from price variation in an environment with potentially oligopolistic intermediaries). Without these corrections, we find that our estimates of the cost of distance would be biased downwards by a factor of approximately four. Our preferred estimates imply that the effect of log distance on trade costs within Ethiopia or Nigeria is four to five times larger than in the US. We also use our pass-through estimates to calculate the incidence of surplus increases due to falling world prices. We find that intermediaries capture the majority of the surplus, and that their share is even higher in distant locations, suggesting that remote consumers see only a small part of the gains from falling international trade barriers. |
| JEL: | F1 O1 R4 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10759&r=all |
| By: | Jens Arnold |
| Abstract: | In the years before the economic crisis, Portugal had low growth, a decline in export competitiveness and rising imbalances that included a large current account deficit and a strong expansion of the non-tradable sector. Strengthening export performance is therefore one of the principal challenges for Portugal. A successful rebalancing of the economy is underway since Portugal started an ambitious structural reform programme in 2011, but more needs to be done to build on the recent export success. This includes both measures to improve competitiveness, such as reforms in energy and services sectors, and measures to boost productivity growth, such as tax reform, improving the performance of the judicial system and better public support for research and development. Given that exporting firms are typically the top performers in their industry, and have been so even before becoming exporters, it is important to avoid policies that could slow down the possibilities for high-performing firms to gain market share, such as the extension of collective wage agreements or the design of tax credits for research and development activities. Support for small enterprises should also be designed to benefit start-ups with a strong growth performance, as well as firms that are increasing their participation in international trade.<P>Stimuler la performance à l'exportation au Portugal<BR>Pendant les années qui ont précédé la crise financière, la croissance a été faible au Portugal, la compétitivité des exportations a reculé et les déséquilibres se sont amplifiés, marqués notamment par un important déficit de la balance courante et une forte expansion du secteur des biens non échangeables. Renforcer les performances à l’exportation est donc l’un des principaux défis que le Portugal se doit de relever. Les premiers signes d’un rééquilibrage de l’économie sont apparus depuis que le Portugal a engagé un ambitieux programme de réformes structurelles en 2011, mais il reste encore à faire pour mettre à profit les succès récents à l’exportation. Il s’agit notamment de prendre à la fois des mesures destinées à améliorer la compétitivité-coût, par exemple des réformes dans les secteurs de l’énergie et des services, et des mesures visant à doper la hausse de la productivité, par exemple en adoptant une réforme fiscale, en améliorant les performances du système judiciaire et en renforçant le soutien public à la recherche-développement. Étant donné que les entreprises exportatrices sont généralement celles qui, dans leur secteur d’activité, sont les plus performantes, et qu’elles l’étaient généralement déjà avant même de devenir exportatrices, il est important d’éviter toute politique qui pourrait avoir pour effet d’amoindrir les possibilités offertes aux entreprises très performantes de gagner des parts de marché, par exemple l’extension des accords de négociation collective ou la mise en place de crédits d’impôts pour la recherche-développement. Par ailleurs, le soutien aux petites entreprises devrait être conçu de manière à bénéficier aux jeunes pousses en forte croissance plutôt qu’à de petites entreprises déjà parvenues à un stade de maturité. |
| Keywords: | productivity, competitiveness, structural reforms, exports |
| JEL: | D2 F1 H2 J3 J5 K2 K4 L5 |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1257-en&r=all |
| By: | Doidge, Craig (University of Toronto); Karolyi, George Andrew (Cornell University); Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | The U.S. had 14% fewer exchange-listed firms in 2012 than in 1975. Relative to other countries, the U.S. now has abnormally few listed firms given its level of development and the quality of its institutions. We call this the "U.S. listing gap" and investigate possible explanations for it. We rule out industry changes, changes in listing requirements, and the reforms of the early 2000s as explanations for the gap. We show that the probability that a firm is listed has fallen since the listing peak in 1996 for all firm size categories though more so for smaller firms. From 1997 to the end of our sample period in 2012, the new list rate is low and the delist rate is high compared to U.S. history and to other countries. High delists account for roughly 46% of the listing gap and low new lists for 54%. The high delist rate is explained by an unusually high rate of acquisitions of publicly-listed firms compared to previous U.S. history and to other countries. |
| JEL: | G15 G20 G24 G30 G34 G38 O16 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2015-07&r=all |
| By: | Vassilios Babalos (Technological Educational Institute of Peloponnese and University of Piraeus); Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus , via Mersin 10, Turkey; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Nikolaos Philippas (Department of Business Administration, University of Piraeus, Greece) |
| Abstract: | Employing a dynamic model that captures herding under different market regimes we provide novel evidence on the herding behavior of US-listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Our sample is extensive and covers the period from 2/1/2004 to 28/6/2013.Estimates of herding behavior are derived using a Markov regime-switching model. The preliminary analysis confirms the existence of three market regimes (low, high and extreme or crash volatility) with transition ordered as ‘low, high and crash volatility’. Although static herding model rejects the existence of herding in REITs markets estimates of the regimeswitching model reveal substantial evidence of herding behavior under the crash regime for almost all sectors. Most interestingly we observe a shift from negative herding behavior during low and high volatility regimes to positive herding behavior under crash regime for almost all REITs sectors. |
| Keywords: | Cross sectional dispersion; Herding; REITs; regime-switching; |
| JEL: | C32 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-15.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); NICO KATZKE (Department of Economics, UNIVERSITY OF STELLENBOSCH); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the predictability of 11 industrialized stock returns with emphasis on the role of U.S. returns. Using monthly data spanning 1980:2 to 2014:12, we show that there exist multiple structural breaks and nonlinearities in the data. Therefore, we employ methods that are capable of accounting for these and at the same time date stamping the periods of causal relationship between the U.S. returns and those of the other countries. First we implement a subsample analysis which relies on the set of models, data set and sample range as in Rapach et al. (2013). Our results show that while the U.S. returns played a strong predictive role based on the OLS pairwise Granger causality predictive regression and news-diffusion models, it played no role based on the pooled version of the OLS model and its role based on the adaptive elastic net model is weak relative to Switzerland. Second, we implement our preferred model: a bootstrap rolling window approach using our newly updated data on stock returns for each countries, and find that U.S. stock return has significant predictive ability for all the countries at certain sub-periods. Given these results, it would be misleading to rely on results based on constant-parameter linear models that assume that the relationship between the U.S. returns and those of other industrialized countries are permanent, since the relationship is, in fact, time-varying, and holds only at specific periods. |
| Keywords: | Stock returns; predictability; structural breaks; nonlinearity; time varying causality; |
| JEL: | C32 G10 G15 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-05.pdf&r=all |
| By: | Consiglio, Andrea (University of Palermo); Zenios, Stavros A. (University of Cyprus and University of PA) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a risk-management approach to re-profiling the sovereign debt of countries facing debt crises. Using scenario analysis we develop a risk measure of the sovereign's debt--Conditional Debt-at-Risk--and an optimization model is used to trace risk profiles that tradeoff expected cost of debt financing against the Conditional Debt-at-Risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for crisis countries, as they allow us to identify, with high-probability, debt unsustainability. We develop risk profiles for two Eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, both in their current form and under various forms of restructuring or rescheduling, and show how to assess debt sustainability. We also develop the risk profiles for a proposal to impose "debt sanctions" in the Ukrainian crisis and show that the (financial) impact could be substantial. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:upafin:14-14&r=all |
| By: | Bretschger, Lucas |
| Abstract: | The world economy is affecting ecosystems in a way that puts future living standards at risk. Important issues include global warming, fading resource stocks, scarce water supplies, and decreasing biodiversity. It is broadly ac-accepted that the future of our planet should be one of our major concerns. But when it comes to concrete policies, most clearly those related to climate change, grave difficulties arise. This may come as a surprise. In fact, it should not be surprising. Forward-looking and green policies have always proved to be demanding and controversial. At the global scale, national policy difficulties are only compounded. There is not sufficient consensus across the different countries. World society is not very dynamic in problem solving. Rather, it is graying and inertial, cultivating conservative views and institutions. Economic interests and political perceptions diverge widely across countries. While the potentials offered by green technologies are huge, institutions have not yet adapted to meet the challenges. The political debate lacks sufficient focus; it includes very diverse opinions and notions on admittedly complex issues. It is true that the most prominent sustainability policy, climate policy, combines the most difficult and complex conditions for policy making in a single subject. Correction of a big market failure, international consensus building, long-run planning, major uncertainties, huge equity concerns, and very heterogeneous country interests are ingredients that would bedevil any political decision. On the bright side, concepts such as “green economy” and “sustainable development” have prominently entered the political debate, documenting the rising number of bridges between economy and ecology. Re-source-efficient technologies are increasingly being developed and applied. Yet, while everyone would highly welcome political solutions to the climate problem, accepting their consequences is much less widely embraced. These include significant reductions in natural resource use, especially with fossil fuels. They also entail acknowledging responsibility for past emissions and obligations to other countries and future generations. Consistent sustainability policies require a framework and an institutional setting that has yet to be built and globally implemented. Such a framework would end-able policymakers exploiting the huge potentials for greening the economy. Many scientific and applied contributions on sustainability have al-ready been published. But the majority of the advocated policies have not been implemented; major problems such as global warming have not yet been properly addressed. It appears that sustainability policies are not attracting sufficient political support. By pointing to the profound problems inherent in policy making in this area, this book explains why this is the case. It also provides the elements needed to increase general understanding and to find political consensus. Compared to the much broader scientific contributions on sustainability, some authored by large numbers of international researchers in different disciplines, the present book takes a more modest approach. It draws on selected research results to explain the most important sustainability is-sues from the point of view of economics. The book points at central underlying problems and misperceptions with the aim of increasing ambitions and rationality in political decision making. It reflects the high complexity of reaching sustainable development, which will require the contribution of social sciences involving many different perspectives. The book uses neither formal models nor mathematical equations. These can be found in the underlying original academic works cited in the references. The approach follows that of the famous economist Alfred Mar-shall, who advised using formal analysis until the results were fully de-rived but then to “burn” the mathematics, translate the conclusions into normal language, and illustrate them by “examples that are important in real life.” In following this procedure, this book aims to make the economic approach to sustainability attractive for a broader audience and a useful input to policy making. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability, Development, Environmental Economics |
| JEL: | Q01 Q50 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66218&r=all |
| By: | Hélène Monier (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | Police elite units involve significant emotional labor (Hochschild, 2003). For elite police officers, this emotional labor is necessary to carry out the mission, endangering their physical and/or mental health. Their emotional competencies allow them to do this emotional labor, and regulate their emotions during an intervention. This article put in relation emotional labor, emotional competencies, emotional regulation and social support, taking into account the emotional factor at work in the elite police units. This exploratory study includes three levels of analysis : the individual level, the collective and managerial level, and the level of institutional practices of Human Resources Management (HRM). How do the HRM practices of elite police units take into account the emotional competencies (Salovey and Mayer, 1990) allowing the hard emotional labor of the police officers ? Both the professionals' health and the intervention's quality depend on it. Some police officers in these units, most of them highly recognized and removed from service, were interviewed. All of them streamline the danger, consciously, to control their emotions and to condition themselves to be calm. This cognitive reappraisal (Gross, 1998) permits them to match up the displayed emotion with the really felt emotion : emotional labor appears to be an in-depth action. At the collective level, police officers insist on the beneficial role of various forms of social support. Finally, concerning the institutional practices of HRM, emotions are taken into account especially in recruitment. Managing emotions is developed further during daily training, in conditions close to the reality, then as part of training sessions specifically dedicated to the management of emotions. Managerial recommendations emerge beyond these two HRM practices : taking into account emotions at work in the careers and withdrawals management (absenteeism, job reassignments, job rotations and other withdrawals) and creating favorable conditions for social support. We note a few surprises and new tracks having sprung from this study : beyond the emotional competencies, " faith ", trainings, and the role of humor, will allow the professionals to regulate their emotions ; and an addiction to adrenaline could influence the career management. Key-words : emotions, emotional competencies, emotional labor, emotion regulation, social support, practices of human resources management. |
| Abstract: | Pour les policiers d'élite, ce dernier est nécessaire afin de mener à bien la mission, mettant en danger leur intégrité physique et/ou mentale. Leurs compétences émotionnelles leur permettent d'effectuer ce travail émotionnel, et de réguler leurs émotions en intervention. Cet article met en relation travail émotionnel, compétences émotionnelles, régulation émotionnelle et soutien social, concernant la prise en compte du facteur émotionnel au travail dans les unités d'élite de la police. Cette étude exploratoire comprend trois niveaux d'analyse : le niveau individuel, le niveau collectif et managérial, et le niveau des pratiques instituées de Gestion des Ressources Humaines (GRH). Comment les pratiques de Gestion des Ressources Humaines des métiers de la police d'élite prennent-elles en compte les compétences émotionnelles (Salovey et Mayer, 1990) qui permettent le travail émotionnel des policiers ? La santé du policier et la qualité des interventions sont en jeu. Des policiers d'unités d'élite, la plupart très reconnus et retirés des services, ont été interrogés. Tous les policiers consultés rationnalisent le danger consciemment, pour maîtriser leurs émotions, et se conditionner au calme. Cette réévaluation cognitive (Gross, 1998) leur permet de faire concorder au maximum l'émotion affichée avec l'émotion ressentie : le travail émotionnel semble s'effectuer en profondeur. Au niveau collectif, les policiers insistent sur le rôle bénéfique de plusieurs formes de soutien social. Enfin, concernant les pratiques instituées de GRH, les émotions sont prises en compte surtout dans le recrutement. La gestion des émotions se développe davantage au cours des entraînements quotidiens, en conditions proches du réel que dans le cadre de sessions de formation explicitement dédiées à la gestion des émotions. Des préconisations managériales se profilent, au-delà de ces deux pratiques de GRH que sont le recrutement et la formation : prendre en compte les émotions au travail dans la gestion des carrières et des retraits (absentéisme, réaffectations de poste, rotations des postes, autres retraits) et instaurer des conditions favorables permettant le soutien social. Notons quelques étonnements et pistes nouvelles ayant émergé de cette étude : au-delà des compétences émotionnelles, la " foi ", l'entraînement, et le rôle de l'humour, permettraient aux professionnels de réguler leurs émotions ; et une addiction à l'adrénaline pourrait influencer la gestion des carrières. Mots-clés : émotions, compétences émotionnelles, travail émotionnel, régulation émotionnelle, soutien social, pratiques de gestion des ressources humaines. |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01066074&r=all |
| By: | Arun G. Chandrasekhar; Horacio Larreguy; Juan Pablo Xandri |
| Abstract: | Agents often use noisy signals from their neighbors to update their beliefs about a state of the world. The effectiveness of social learning relies on the details of how agents aggregate information from others. There are two prominent models of information aggregation in networks: (1) Bayesian learning, where agents use Bayes' rule to assess the state of the world and (2) DeGroot learning, where agents instead consider a weighted average of their neighbors' previous period opinions or actions. Agents who engage in DeGroot learning often double-count information and may not converge in the long run. We conduct a lab experiment in the field with 665 subjects across 19 villages in Karnataka, India, designed to structurally test which model best describes social learning. Seven subjects were placed into a network with common knowledge of the network structure. Subjects attempted to learn the underlying (binary) state of the world, having received independent identically distributed signals in the first period. Thereafter, in each period, subjects made guesses about the state of the world, and these guesses were transmitted to their neighbors at the beginning of the following round. We structurally estimate a model of Bayesian learning, relaxing common knowledge of Bayesian rationality by allowing agents to have incomplete information as to whether others are Bayesian or DeGroot. Our estimates show that, despite the flexibility in modeling learning in these networks, agents are robustly best described by DeGroot-learning models wherein they take a simple majority of previous guesses in their neighborhood. |
| JEL: | C91 C92 C93 D83 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21468&r=all |
| By: | Paul André (Accounting / Management Control Department - Essec Business School); Andrei Filip (Accounting / Management Control Department - Essec Business School); Luc Paugam (DRM-Finance - DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine - Accounting / Management Control Department - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the mandatory adoption of IFRS in Europe in 2005 on conditional conservatism. To capture conditional conservatism, we use three measures: the Basu (1997) measure, the Khan and Watts (2009) measure, and a measure controlling for potential shifts in unconditional conservatism and cost of capital after the adoption of IFRS. From a sample of 7,251 firm-year observations drawn from 16 European countries, we document an overall decline of the degree of conditional conservatism across our three measures. While there is no change in weak enforcement/governance countries which remain less conditionally conservative than strong enforcement/governance countries, the latter exhibit a significant decrease. Further, we demonstrate that the decline is more significant for firms carrying intangible assets and goodwill in their balance sheets, items for which impairment tests rely on unverifiable fair value estimates. We argue that IFRS are conceptually conditionally conservative but that inappropriate application of conditional conservatism principles may have prevented financial reporting from reaching the level of conservatism targeted by the IASB. |
| Date: | 2013–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00862683&r=all |
| By: | Miroslav Plasil; Tomas Konecny; Jakub Seidler; Petr Hlavac |
| Abstract: | The recent financial crisis has demonstrated the importance of the linkages between the financial sector and the real economy. This paper sets out to develop two complementary methods for assessing the position of the economy in the financial cycle in order to identify emerging imbalances in timely manner. First, we construct a composite indicator using variables representing risk perceptions in the financial sector and calibrate this indicator to capture the credit losses the Czech banking sector experienced during the recent crisis. Second, we focus on the transitions of loans from one risk category to another, which allows us to capture the financial cycle from the perspective of the debt-paying ability of non-financial corporations. Both financial cycle measures can be used by policy makers for a wide range of policy decisions, including that on the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian model averaging, countercyclical capital buffer, credit risk, factor model, financial cycle |
| JEL: | C11 E32 E37 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2015/05&r=all |
| By: | H. Spencer Banzhaf |
| Abstract: | For decades, economists have used the hedonic model to estimate demands for the implicit characteristics of differentiated commodities. The traditional cross-sectional approach can recover marginal willingness to pay for characteristics, but has faltered over a difficult endogeneity problem for non-marginal welfare measures. I show that when marginal prices can be reliably estimated, and when panel data on household demands is available, one can construct a second-order approximation to non-marginal welfare measures using only the first-stage marginal prices. Under a single-crossing restriction, the approach remains valid for repeated cross sections of product prices. More recently, economists have questioned the assumptions under which one can identify these cross-sectional hedonic price functions, raising the possibility of unobservables that are correlated with the characteristic of interest. To overcome this problem, they have introduced difference-in-differences econometric models to identify capitalization effects. Unfortunately, the interpretation of these effects has not been clearly perceived in the literature. I additionally show these capitalization effects are the "average direct unmediated effect" on prices of a change in characteristics, which can be interpreted as a movement along the ex post hedonic price func-tion. This effect is a lower bound on Hicksian equivalent surplus. |
| JEL: | D46 D61 H4 Q51 R3 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21485&r=all |
| By: | Misnaniarti, Misnaniarti; Ayuningtyas, Dumilah |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is not the only country that will lead to universal coverage. Several countries took an initiative to develop social security, through Universal Health Coverage (UHC) to achieve health insurance and welfare for all residents. Even, some countries have already reached universal health coverage since a few years ago. The purpose of this paper is to assess the achievement of universal coverage of the health insurance implementation in several countries. In general, some countries require considerable time to achieve universal coverage. Mechanisms and stages that need attention is on the univeral registration aspects that cover the entire population, progressive and continuous funding sources, comprehensive benefits package, the expansion of gradual coverage for diseases that can cause catastrophic expenditure, increasing capacity and mobilizing supporting resource. National Health Insurance policy in some countries can improve access to care, utilization and quality of quality health services to all citizens. Indonesia is expected to learn from the experience of other countries to achieve UHC, so that the projection of the entire population of Indonesia to have health insurance in 2019 will be reached soon. |
| Keywords: | Social Health Insurance, Health Policy, Universal Coverage |
| JEL: | H30 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:65915&r=all |
| By: | Frederico Belo; Xiaoji Lin; Jun Li; Xiaofei Zhao |
| Abstract: | We introduce labor-force heterogeneity in a neoclassical investment model. In the baseline model, we highlight the fact that labor adjustment costs are higher for high skilled workers than for low skilled workers. The model predicts that the negative hiring-expected return relation should be steeper in industries that rely more on high skilled workers because firm's hiring responds less elastically to changes in the discount rate when labor adjustment costs are higher. In an extended version of the model we show that the previous prediction also holds in the presence of additional sources of labor-force heterogeneity such as higher wage rigidity of high skilled workers. Empirically, we document that the negative hiring-expected return relation is between 1.7 and 3.2 times larger in industries that rely more on high skilled workers, than in industries that rely more on low skilled workers. This result is robust: it holds in U.S data, in international data, across sub-samples, and in both firm-level and portfolio-level analyses. Taken together, our results show that labor-force heterogeneity affects asset prices in financial markets. |
| JEL: | E13 E22 E23 E24 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21487&r=all |
| By: | Marjorie Tendero (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM], Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage) |
| Abstract: | Can experimental economics provide useful insights for public policies making? We study the acceptability of the strategic retreat solution in order to cope with coastal flooding risks in the Languedoc-Roussillon region (France) . This solution consists in an organized retreat of infrastructures and housings to the hinterland. Two questions are treated. What is the degree of solidarity among individuals exposed to the risk compared to those who are not? Is solidarity function of the distance to the risk? Our experimental protocol shall answer these questions. Using a variant of the solidarity game , laboratory and eld experiments allow us to analyze solidarity preferences. Data were gathered among 5 cities of the Herault region (France): Valras-Plage, Vendres-Plage, Béziers, Murviel lès Béziers and Saint-Chinian. These data give individuals' perceptions (coastal attachment, environmental risks) as well as socio-economical aspects and stakeholders opinions. Data collected from these surveys show that individuals have no memory of the risk worse, they are unaware of it. Thus, the adaptive public policy, such as the strategic retreat solution, tends to be unacceptable. Beaches are mostly perceived as recreational areas, not as protective shields against coastal flooding. Therefore, in terms of public communication an emphasis should be put on the protective role of beaches. Preliminary laboratory results show that the strategic retreat solution can't be funded on solidarity alone. In contrast, fields experiments show more solidarity. However, we can't yet conclude if whether or not this solidarity level will be reached when individuals will have to face these disasters. Solidarity is higher among individuals close to the risk. Thus, solidarity is essentially a local phenomenon. To sum up, the private financing of flooding risk consequences solely on solidarity is not possible. In any case, an analysis of the speci c determinants of solidarity (anonymity, knowledge of the risk, personality traits) [62, 40, 74, 66] is required if one want to use it to finance this endeavour. A deeper analysis should be made about information and individuals' behaviour [63, 64]. These analyses should provide useful insights to quantify the fundraising amount collected in function of policy maker speeches, including the optimal tax rate in order to complete the financing. However, existing cost-benefit analyses of the literature should be completed to include the "ecoplage" solution as well, which has not been done yet. |
| Abstract: | A partir d'une étude de cas, nous montrons dans quelle mesure l'économie expérimentale peut-elle aider le décideur public à mettre en place une politique publique acceptable ? Nous étudions l'acceptabilité et les modalités de mise en œuvre de la solution dite du retrait stratégique (recul des infrastructures et habitations vers l'arrière-pays) face aux enjeux posés par la submersion marine en Languedoc-Roussillon. Deux questions sont traitées. Tout d'abord : quel est le degré de solidarité entre les individus confrontés au problème de submersion et ceux qui ne le sont pas ? Ensuite, y a-t-il une répartition spatiale de la solidarité en fonction de la distance au risque ? Le protocole expérimental développé se propose de répondre à ces deux questions. Les expériences de laboratoire et de terrain ont permis d'analyser les préférences solidaires des individus à partir d'une version revisitée du jeu de la solidarité. Les données ont été récoltées dans cinq communes de l'Hérault : Valras-Plage, Vendres- Plage, Béziers, Murviel lès Béziers et Saint-Chinian. Ces données rendent compte des perceptions individuelles (attachement au littoral, perception des risques environnementaux), des aspects socio-économiques et des opinions des différentes parties prenantes. Le dépouillement des questionnaires montre que les individus n'ont pas de mémoire du risque, ni même conscience des risques naturels qu'ils peuvent encourir. Cela rend difficilement acceptable les politiques d'adaptation telle que la solution du recul stratégique. D'autant plus que les plages ont avant tout une fonction récréative pour les usagers, et non une fonction protectrice vis-à-vis des tempêtes et du risque de submersion. En termes de communication publique, l'accent doit donc être mis sur le rôle protecteur des littoraux. Les premiers résultats de laboratoire tendraient à indiquer que le financement de la solution du recul ne peut être fondé uniquement sur la solidarité individuelle. Les expériences de terrain, elles, montrent davantage de solidarité. Cependant, il convient de déterminer si cette solidarité sera effective ou non, lorsque les individus devront faire face aux catastrophes. Cette expérimentation montre également que plus l'on s'éloigne du littoral moins les individus sont solidaires (des individus devant faire face aux risques littoraux). En e et, les individus de l'arrière-pays ne perçoivent pas les risques littoraux de la même manière que les individus qui y sont directement exposés. La solidarité est donc un phénomène essentiellement local. En conclusion le financement privé des conséquences du risque de submersion, reposant sur la seule solidarité, n'est donc pas possible. Quoi qu'il en soit faire appel à la solidarité individuelle afin de financer tout ou partie de ce projet, nécessite d'étudier les déterminants propres à cette dernière : effet de l'anonymat des victimes qui influence également l'altruisme des individus ], la connaissance du risques , le vécu du risque ou encore l'influence des traits de personnalité qui peut également être étudié par la neuroéconomie . Une étude plus approfondie peut également être faite sur le rôle de l'information dans les comportements à risque. Ceci permettra de quantier les montants que l'on peut espérer récolter, en fonction des discours pouvant être mis en place par le décideur public. Cela permettra notamment de calculer la taxe de séjour optimale afin de compléter le financement du projet. Toutefois, il serait judicieux de compléter les analyses coût-bénéfices de la littérature afin de comparer la solution du repli avec les méthodes dites expérimentales comme " écoplage " et " stabiplage ", ce qui n'a pas été fait. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01071836&r=all |
| By: | De-Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyro, Silvana |
| Abstract: | A vast literature has sought to explain large cross-country differences in fertility rates. Income, mortality, urbanization, and female labour force participation, among other socioeconomic variables, have been suggested as explanatory factors for the differences. This paper points out that cross-country differences in fertility rates have fallen very rapidly over the past four decades, with most countries converging to a rate just above two children per woman. This absolute convergence took place despite the limited (or absent) absolute convergence in other economic variables. The rapid decline in fertility rates taking place in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the slow decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. The preferred number of children has also fallen, suggesting a shift to a small-family norm. The convergence to replacement rates will lead to a stable world population, reducing environmental concerns over explosive population growth. In this paper we explore existing explanations and bring in an additional factor influencing fertility rates: the population programs started in the 1960s, which, we argue, have accelerated the global decline in fertility rates over the past four decades. |
| Keywords: | fertility; macro-development; population policies |
| JEL: | O10 O11 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10782&r=all |
| By: | Francis Declerck (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School); Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School); Flavien Bellocq (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | The paper explains how stock price of oil companies depends on oil futures market price. The model is applied to major oil company stocks: Shell, Exxon Mobil, BP, Total and Chevron. The topic is original because it focuses on short‐ and long‐term relationships with vector error correction models (VECM) with changing regimes. To get structural model between stock price of oil companies and oil futures market price, investigation is oriented to cointegration link with autoregressive vector (VAR). Research is conducted in using monthly data from November 1989 to June 2011. The stationarity of times series is tested with Dickey‐Fuller unit root test, Philips‐Perron and KPSS. The approaches of Engle‐Granger and Johansen do not enable to find long‐term relationship over the overall period. However, cointegration with 5 changing regimes is found. The Bai and Perron approach enables to find 5 breakpoints. In order to identify cointegration relationships with changing regimes, the Gregory and Hansen method is used and results show cointegration with changing regimes. Vector error correction (VEC) models associated to cointegration with changing regimes are estimated. VEC looks at the dynamics on the short‐term.Then economic and financial analysis is done and choc analysis is implemented with impulse response function. Furthermore, ARCH‐LM test shows the existence of an ARCH vectorial model. The paper shows how recent cointegration techniques are useful in including endogenous structural breaks leading to changing regimes. Further investigations could be done to estimate whether one could be able to hedge commodity price fluctuations in using stocks whose markets are a lot more liquid. This modeling will be extended by short‐term construction of models incorporating changing regimes with Markovian approach MS‐VAR and MS‐VECM. |
| Abstract: | La recherche explique comment le cours des actions des compagnies pétrolières dépend du prix à terme du pétrole. La modélisation est appliquée aux principales compagnies pétrolières Shell: Exxon Mobil, BP, Total et Chevron. La recherche est originale car elle porte sur les relations à court et long terme à partir de modèles à correction d'erreur vectorielle (VECM) avec changements de régime. La modélisation structurelle, entre le cours des actions des compagnies pétrolières et le prix à terme du pétrole, est menée à partir de modèles de d’autorégression vectorielle (VAR) en lien avec la cointégration. La recherche est conduite en utilisant des données mensuelles de novembre 1989 à juin 2011. La stationnarité des séries temporelles est testée avec les tests de Dickey‐Fuller, Philips‐Perron et KPSS. Les approches d’Engle‐Granger et Johansen ne permettent pas de trouver une relation de long terme sur toute la période. Cependant, l’approche de Bai et Perron permet d’identifier 5 changements de régime et de modéliser des relations de cointégration différentes sur ces sous‐périodes. Afin d'identifier les relations de cointégration à changements de régime, la méthode Gregory et Hansen est utilisée et les résultats montrent une cointégration avec des changements de régime. Les VECM associés à la cointégration avec changements de régime sont estimés. Le VECM permet de comprendre la dynamique sur le court terme. Puis l'analyse économique et financière est faite. L’analyse de choc est mise en oeuvre avec la fonction de réponse impulsionnelle. De plus, le test ARCH‐LM montre l'existence d'un modèle ARCH vectoriel. La recherche indique comment les dernières techniques de cointégration sont utiles notamment en incluant des ruptures structurelles endogènes menant à des évolutions de régimes. D'autres recherches seront effectuées pour estimer si l'on peut couvrir les risques de fluctuations des prix des matières premières en utilisant les cours boursiers des entreprises cotées dans des marchés beaucoup plus liquides. Cette modélisation sera complétée par la construction de modèles de court terme incorporant des changements de régime avec l’approche markovienne MS‐VAR et MS‐VECM. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01119857&r=all |
| By: | Gérard-François Dumont (ENEC - Espaces, Nature et Culture - UP4 - Université Paris-Sorbonne - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | [Generational demographic effects and increased life expectancy: the two combined phenomena, unprecedented in the history of humanity, facing with many challenges. In 2014, France has 16 million people aged 60 or over. According to the average projection, they would be 20 million in 2030. How to respond to their needs? The question is at the heart of Silver economy sector aimed at encouraging innovations to accompany advancing age and reduce loss of autonomy. A real potential in terms of economic benefits and employment for many sectors of activities. Voluntary standards exist but gaps are identified as penalizing the structuring of the sector. Areas such as basic needs (food, displacement capacity...), the living environment (environment, local shops...) or health (access to care, prevention) represent high potential markets. Nine key areas are identified: food, transport, housing, workplace, health and social Action, financial services, leisure and sports tourism, consumer goods and information technologies. This expression comes from elsewhere needs of older workers themselves and their caregivers, according to the national survey presented in this report, place the food, health and new technologies in the top three of their service expectations . In the area of the Silver Economy, voluntary standards and private standards already exist, but many gaps remain. These deficiencies penalize the structuring of the sector. For an entrepreneur, consult a voluntary standard allows to save time and deploy its activity in optimal conditions, which meet the needs and requirements of the sector. The findings of the report encourage all economic actors involved in the growth of the sector (service providers, industry, SMEs, start-ups, ...) to become involved in developing, together, voluntary standards that meet the needs of the market.] |
| Abstract: | Effets démographiques générationnels et augmentation de l’espérance de vie : ces deux phénomènes combinés, inédits dans l’histoire de l’Humanité, confrontent la société française à de nombreux défis. En 2014, la France compte 16 millions de personnes âgées de 60 ans ou plus. Selon la projection moyenne, elles seraient 20 millions en 2030. Comment répondre à leurs besoins ? La question est au cœur de la Silver économie, filière qui vise à encourager les innovations pour accompagner l’avancée en âge et faire reculer la perte d’autonomie. Un vrai potentiel en termes de retombées économiques et d’emploi pour de très nombreux sec-teurs d’activités. Des normes volontaires existent, mais des manques sont identifiés comme pénalisant la structuration de la filière. Les domaines comme les besoins fondamentaux (alimentation, ca-pacité de déplacement...), le cadre de vie (environnement, proximité de commerces...) ou la santé (accès aux soins, prévention) représentent des marchés à fort potentiel. Neuf secteurs clés sont identifiés : agroalimentaire, transports, habitat, lieu de travail, santé et action so-ciale, services financiers, sports loisirs et tourisme, biens de consommation et technologies de l’information. Cette expression de besoins provient d’ailleurs des seniors eux-mêmes et de leurs aidants qui, selon l’enquête nationale présentée dans ce rapport, placent l’alimentation, la santé et les nouvelles technologies dans le trio de tête de leurs attentes de services. Dans le domaine de la Silver économie, des normes volontaires et référentiels privés exis-tent déjà, mais de nombreux manques persistent. Ces lacunes pénalisent la structuration de la filière. Pour un entrepreneur, consulter une norme volontaire permet de gagner du temps et de déployer son activité dans des conditions optimales, qui répondent aux besoins et aux exigences du secteur. Les conclusions de ce rapport encouragent tous les acteurs écono-miques concernés par la croissance de la filière (prestataires, industriels, PME, start-ups,...) à s’impliquer pour élaborer, ensemble, des normes volontaires qui correspondent aux be-soins du marché. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01180511&r=all |
| By: | Ali, Muhammad; Syed ali, Raza; Chin-Hong, Puah |
| Abstract: | The present study is the first attempt in Pakistan to examine the determinants of Islamic personal financing by using a modified theory of reasoned action (TRA) model. This study uses the two major construct of TRA model, namely, subjective norm and attitude. Additionally, we modified this model by introducing three relevant factors: pricing of Islamic personal financing, a religious obligation and government support to predict the intention of Islamic bank customers about Islamic personal financing. Sample data were conveniently drawn from the Islamic bank customers with the help of self administered survey based questionnaire. The study sample comprised on 484 responses of full-fledge Islamic bank customers located in the biggest city of Pakistan. Out of 484 responses, we considered 471 responses and ignored 13 responses due to incomplete information provided by the customers. This data was statistically analyzed by employing Structural equation modeling (SEM). Overall, the results of the study suggest that pricing of Islamic personal financing and religious obligation have a negative and significant impact on the intention to use Islamic personal financing. Attitude and social influence were found to be positive, but insignificant predictors. In addition, government support is positive and significantly associated with the intention to use Islamic personal financing. This study has some practical implications for Islamic bank managers and the government of Pakistan. Furthermore, Islamic banks should capture the need of Islamic personal financing while government support may help in promoting this service for Islamic banks in Pakistan. This paper makes a unique contribution in the existing body of Islamic banking literature.The empirical findings of this study provide some future directions and is considered to be a pioneer study, which has laid a foundation in the context of Islamic personal financing in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Key words: Personal financing, Islamic banks, customer’s intention, Pakistan |
| JEL: | G1 G10 |
| Date: | 2015–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66023&r=all |