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on Financial Markets |
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Issue of 2010‒06‒26
six papers chosen by |
| By: | Leonard I. Nakamura; Kasper Roszbach. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the authors use credit rating data from two Swedish banks to elicit evidence on banks' loan monitoring ability. They test the banks' ability to forecast credit bureau ratings, and vice versa, and show that bank ratings are able to predict future credit bureau ratings. This is evidence that bank credit ratings, consistent with theory, contain valuable private information. However, the authors also find that public ratings have an ability to predict future bank ratings, implying that internal bank ratings do not fully or efficiently incorporate all publicly available information. This suggests that risk analyses by banks or regulators should be based on both internal bank ratings and public ratings. They also document that the credit bureau ratings add information to the bank ratings in predicting bankruptcy and loan default. The methods the authors use represent a new basket of straightforward techniques that enables both financial institutions and regulators to assess the performance of credit ratings systems. |
| Keywords: | Credit ratings ; Risk assessment |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:10-21&r=fmk |
| By: | Christophe J. Godlewski (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Bulat Sanditov (University of Maastricht); Thierry Burger-Helmchen (BETA Research Center, Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the network structure of syndicated lending markets and evaluate the impact of lenders’ network centrality, considered as measures of their experience and reputation, on borrowing costs. We show that the market for syndicated loans is a “small world” characterized by large local density and short social distances between lenders. Such a network structure allows for better information and resources flows between banks thus enhancing their social capital. We then show that lenders’ experience and reputation play a significant role in reducing loan spreads and thus increasing borrower’s wealth. |
| Keywords: | Agency costs, bank syndicate, experience, loan syndication, reputation, small world, social network analysis. |
| JEL: | G21 G24 L14 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2010-07&r=fmk |
| By: | Davide Furceri (OECD and University of Palermo); Aleksandra Zdzienicka (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69003, France; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne, UMR 5824, 93, chemin des Mouilles, Ecully, F-69130, France; ENS-LSH, Lyon, France) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this work is to assess the short and medium term impact of banking crises on developing economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses, both in the short and in the medium term. The effect depends on structural and policy variables. Output losses are larger for relatively more wealthy economies, characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy have been found to be efficient tools to attenuate the effect of the crises. Among banking intervention policies, liquidity support resulted to be the one associated with lower output losses. |
| Keywords: | Output Losses, Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | G1 E6 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1013&r=fmk |
| By: | Antonis Papapantoleon; David Skovmand |
| Abstract: | The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte-Carlo pricing of derivatives in the L\'evy LIBOR model of Eberlein and \"Ozkan (2005). Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates but the methods are generally slow. We propose an alternative approximation scheme based on Picard iterations. Our approach is similar in accuracy to the full numerical solution, but with the feature that each rate is, unlike the standard method, evolved independently of the other rates in the term structure. This enables simultaneous calculation of derivative prices of different maturities using parallel computing. We include numerical illustrations of the accuracy and speed of our method pricing caplets. |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1006.3340&r=fmk |
| By: | Onour, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | This paper employs extreme downside risk measures to estimate the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008/2009 on equity markets in major oil producing Middle East countries. The results in the paper indicate the spillover effect of the global crisis varied from a country to another, but most hardly affected market among the group of six markets was Dubai financial market in which portfolio loss reached about 42 per cent. This indicates that Dubai debt crisis, which emerged on surface in 2009, exacerbated the impact of the global financial crisis and prolonged the recovery process in these markets. |
| Keywords: | Value at risk; Fat-tails distribution; Expected Shortfall; Extreme losses. |
| JEL: | G12 F30 C01 |
| Date: | 2010–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23332&r=fmk |
| By: | Perlin, Marcelo; Dufour, Alfonso; Brooks, Chris |
| Abstract: | This paper is set to investigate the existence of spillover effects for the trading process of correlated financial instruments. While the main literature in price impact models has focused mainly on multivariate processes for a unique asset, we argue that transitory spillover effects in such class of models should exist as a simple biproduct of explicit relationships among prices of different (but correlated) financial instruments. Firstly we assess the theoretical implications of a transitory spillover effect in an extended microstructure model and then we investigate our different hypothesis in the European bond market with a formal econometric model. The results showed that the estimated parameters of the econometric models do conform to what we expect in the theoretical derivations, where the trades of one instrument would be correlated to the trades in others. But, even though the results are positive, they could also be explained by traders splitting orders across different instruments or joint periods of intensive trading. Further analysis also showed that the trading intensity in other instruments does affect the trading process of the particular bonds. We found that a buy (sell) order is less likely to be followed by a buy (sell) order if the market is trading intensively. We explain such effect as an inventory problem, where volatility of prices forces market makers to improve trades in the opposite direction from the current order flow. The main conclusion of this study is that we find inconclusive results towards the particular microstructure model set in the theoretical part of the paper, but positive results for a general spillover effect in the trading process of European fixed income instruments. |
| Keywords: | market microstructure; spillover effect; commonalities; liquidity; price impact of a trade. |
| JEL: | D53 C1 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23380&r=fmk |