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on Financial Development and Growth |
By: | Ozge Akinci; Gianluca Benigno; Marco Del Negro; Ethan Nourbash; Albert Queraltó |
Abstract: | What is the effect of a hike in interest rates on the economy? Building on recent research, we argue in this post that the answer to this question very much depends on how vulnerable the financial system is. We measure financial vulnerability using a novel concept—the financial stability interest rate r** (or “r-double-star”)—and show that, empirically, the economy is more sensitive to shocks when the gap between r** and current real rates is small or negative. |
Keywords: | financial crises; nonlinear dynamics; shocks; financial stability |
JEL: | G21 E52 G2 E51 |
Date: | 2023–05–22 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:96184&r=fdg |
By: | Ozge Akinci; Paolo Pesenti |
Abstract: | In this post we summarize the main results of our contribution to a recent e-book, “The Making of the European Monetary Union: 30 years since the ERM crisis, ” on the economic and financial crises in Europe since 1992-93, and focus on the spillovers of those crises onto the United States and the global economy. We find that the answer to the question in the title of this post is a (moderate) yes. |
Keywords: | Cross-County; spillovers; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models; euro area; sovereign debt crises |
JEL: | F0 E2 E51 G01 |
Date: | 2023–05–31 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:96272&r=fdg |
By: | Tomohiro Hirano; Alexis Akira Toda |
Abstract: | Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective on bubbles: the necessity of asset price bubbles. We establish the Bubble Necessity Theorem in a plausible general class of economic models: in economies with faster long run economic growth ($G$) than dividend growth ($G_d$) and long run bubbleless interest rate ($R$) below dividend growth, equilibria exist but none of them are fundamental or asymptotically bubbleless. The necessity condition $R |
Date: | 2023–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2305.08268&r=fdg |
By: | Horan, Aoife; Jarmulska, Barbara; Ryan, Ellen |
Abstract: | Our paper uses credit registry data for the euro area to examine how the banking system transmits asset price shocks to credit via revaluation of collateral and subsequent lending decisions. Specifically we examine banks’ treatment of real estate collateral during the Covid-19 crisis. First we find evidence of significant frictions in the trans-mission of asset price dynamics to collateral values. Despite this we find that lending relationships reliant on real estate collateral received one third less credit following the outbreak of the pandemic and that firms experiencing downward revaluations of their collateral were significantly less likely to be given new loans. Our findings confirm that the collateral channel does create an economically significant link between real estate values and credit but suggest that the banking system’s role in transmission may be more complex than traditional economic theory would imply. JEL Classification: G21, R3, C55 |
Keywords: | banking, collateral channel, financial accelerator, microdata, real estate |
Date: | 2023–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232823&r=fdg |
By: | Zheng Liu; Mark M. Spiegel; Jingyi Zhang |
Abstract: | We study the effectiveness of targeted reserve requirements (RR) as a policy tool for macroeconomic stabilization. Targeted RR adjustments were implemented in China during both the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a model in which firms with idiosyncratic productivity can borrow from two types of banks---local or national---to finance working capital. National banks provide liquidity services, while local banks have superior monitoring technologies, such that both types coexist. Relationship banking is modeled in terms of a fixed cost of switching lenders, and banks choose to switch only under sufficiently large shocks. Reducing RR on local banks boosts leverage and aggregate output, whereas reducing RR on national banks has an ambiguous output effect. Following a large recessionary shock, a targeted RR policy that reduces RR for local banks relative to national banks can lower costs of switching lenders, stabilizing macroeconomic fluctuations. However, targeting RR in that manner also boosts local bank leverage, increasing risks of default and related liquidation losses. Our model's mechanism is supported by bank-level empirical evidence. |
Keywords: | reserve requirements; macroeconomic stabilization; bank sizes |
JEL: | E32 E52 E21 |
Date: | 2023–05–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:96261&r=fdg |
By: | Bernard Hoekman; Marco Sanfilippo; Margherita Tambussi |
Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between inward FDI and structural transformation of local labour markets in Africa. We combine geolocalized information on the distribution of FDI with a noveldatabase that provides information from 40, 665, 627 individuals in 2, 570 subnational units over the period 1987-2019. Results are suggestive of a positive effect of FDI on structural transformation.FDI contributes to an increase in employment, and shifts of workers towards modern industries and higher-skilled occupations. No effects are found on self-employment. Results are heterogeneous, reflecting the characteristics of the foreign investor and of the business activity undertaken by foreign firms in the local market. Geospatial analysis of changes in performance of domestic firms exposed to nearby FDI projects provides evidence of horizontal spillovers and inter-industry linkages, suggesting a complementary mechanism through which FDI drives structural change. |
Keywords: | FDI, Jobs, Structural Transformation, Africa |
Date: | 2023–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2023/02&r=fdg |
By: | Abreo, Carlos; Carrillo, Eduardo; Pédussel Wu, Jennifer |
Abstract: | The research delves into the determinants of inward FDI to Colombia in the context of economic integration promoted by recent governments. Colombia's trade liberalisation, in addition to seeking to boost its trade flow, has focused on making the country more attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI), in a framework of fiscal discipline and a stable economic environment for economic growth, albeit characterised by complex institutional conditions. Government reforms have revitalized FDI inflows to Colombia, with the oil and mining sectors receiving the largest influx of new capital investments. Accordingly, this paper contributes to the literature with an analysis of the characteristics of FDI inflows to Colombia between 2007 and 2020 using an augmented gravity model approach. We find that stable government policies and the rule of law are key components in increasing FDI in Colombia and, more importantly, a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) significantly drives FDI into the country. |
Keywords: | FDI, Gravity Model, BITs, Colombia, Institutional quality, Labour competitiveness |
JEL: | F21 F36 O16 O54 C10 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:2122023&r=fdg |
By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm |
Abstract: | The few existing studies on the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on economic complexity have reached inconclusive outcomes. The present analysis re-examines this issue through the lens of the concept of 'quality of AfT flows' that takes into account not only the amount of AfT flows, but also the predictability and volatility of these capital inflows. A country enjoys a better quality of AfT flows if it receives higher AfT flows in a predictable and less volatiles fashions. We investigate the effect of the quality of AfT flows on economic complexity, over a set of 86 countries and the period from 2004 to 2019, and using the within fixed effects estimator and the Method of Moments Quantile Regression with fixed effects approach. The findings suggest that not only does a better quality of AfT flows fosters economic complexity in recipient countries, but its positive effect is larger in less complex economies (including poorest countries) than in relatively more complex economies among recipient countries. These findings reveal that what really matters for the enhancement of economic complexity in developing countries may not be only the amounts of the total AfT flows, but more importantly the predictability and the stability of these resource inflows. Improving the quality of AfT flows by increasing AfT amounts in a predictable and stable fashions would be beneficial to developing countries, and particularly to a greater extent to poorest countries among them. |
Keywords: | Aid for Trade, Predictability of Aid for Trade, Volatility of Aid for Trade, Economic complexity |
JEL: | O11 O14 F14 F35 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:271538&r=fdg |
By: | Admkew Haile |
Abstract: | The reviewed literature articles are studies related to sub-Saharan African agribusiness, finance and value chain financing published since 2016–2022 to provide insights and information on barriers and prospects of agribusiness financing in sub–Saharan Africa. The review is concerned on identifying and understanding the barriers faced by the agribusiness firm, who seek financing for agribusiness activities, who would provide it, and who would invest in agribusiness. It also identifies prospects for addressing critical barriers that can help close the financing gap in agribusiness. Agriculture and agribusiness are identified as a potential and turning points for African economic transformations and developments. Agribusiness in Africa is suffering from financial access and service despite its economic contributions to the regions. Despite, the significant need for working and investment capital, many value chain actors faced difficulties getting access to financing from formal sources, and the few who do find it mostly inadequate. Difficulties accessing finance and financial services are prevalent, with lending to agribusiness and affordable access to other financial services lagging far behind other sectors of the economy. The reliance on collateral and number of documents required discriminates against many small and medium agribusiness firms, who may have viable businesses but do not have the assets. The restrictions on access to finance for agribusiness, banks and some other financing institutions are starting to grow their agribusiness investment and their number of branches to rural areas where such needs are high is considered as a positive prospect for agribusiness finance accessibilities. The growing of urban food markets driven mainly by income growth and rapid urbanization are creating need for high-value agribusiness products, new supply chains, and supporting services in the agribusiness industry. The new jobs and income prospects created by this growth can significantly contribute to Africa’s economic transformation and development. However, to take advantage of these growth opportunities, Sub-Saharan Africa needs to close the agribusiness financing gap. Key words: Agribusiness, Finance Access, Barriers, Financing, Prospects, Sub-Saharan Africa |
Date: | 2023–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2023-45-07&r=fdg |
By: | Tatsuki Inoue |
Abstract: | This study is the first to investigate whether financial institutions for low-income populations have contributed to the historical decline in mortality rates. Using ward-level panel data from prewar Tokyo City, we found that public pawn loans were associated with reductions in infant and fetal death rates, potentially through improved nutrition and hygiene measures. Simple calculations suggest that popularizing public pawnshops led to a 6% and 8% decrease in infant mortality and fetal death rates, respectively, from 1927 to 1935. Contrarily, private pawnshops showed no significant association with health improvements. Our findings enrich the expanding literature on demographics and financial histories. |
Date: | 2023–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2305.09352&r=fdg |
By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to complement extant literature by examining how mobile money innovations can moderate the unfavorable incidence of female unemployment on female doing of business in 44 countries from sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2004 to 2018. The empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions. The employed doing business constraints are the procedures a woman has to go through to start a business and the time for women to set up a business, while the engaged mobile money innovations are: (i) registered mobile money agents (registered mobile money agents per 1000 km2 and registered mobile money agents per 100 000 adults) and (ii) active mobile money agents (active mobile money agents per 1000 km2 and active mobile money agents per 100 000 adults). The hypothesis that mobile money innovation moderates the unfavorable incidence of female unemployment on business constraints is overwhelmingly invalid. The invalidity of the tested hypothesis is clarified, and the policy implications are discussed. |
Keywords: | Mobile phones; financial inclusion; women; doing business; sub-Saharan Africa |
JEL: | G20 O40 I10 I20 I32 |
Date: | 2023–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:23/033&r=fdg |
By: | Thorsten Beck; Natalie Kessler |
Abstract: | This paper presents SME financing gaps across European countries over the period 2013 to 2020, using two different methodologies, one reliant on firm balance sheets and one on firm-level surveys. We show significant variation in financing gaps across countries and sectors. Variation over time, on the other hand, is not as strong or intuitive. The account- and survey-based measures are only weakly correlated with each other, reflecting their different nature, and both are only weakly correlated with a survey-based measure of self-reported firm financing constraints. |
Keywords: | SME Finance, financing gap, firm-level surveys, access to banking |
Date: | 2023–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2023/07&r=fdg |
By: | Kraemer-Eis, Helmut; Botsari, Antonia; Gvetadze, Salome; Lang, Frank; Torfs, Wouter |
Abstract: | This working paper provides an overview of the main markets relevant to the EIF, thereby documenting the impact of the current inflationary environment, the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the pandemic on the SME financing environment. The publication first discusses the general market environment and then covers the markets for SME equity and debt products. In addition, it focuses on a number of thematic policy areas that are of particular interest to the EIF, such as Inclusive Finance, Fintech and Green finance & investment. |
Keywords: | SMEs, SME financing, private equity, bank guarantee, microfinance, financial technology, sustainable investment, Europe |
Date: | 2022 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eifwps:202284&r=fdg |
By: | Bustos, Emil (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of financial constraints on firms’ inventory holdings, an area of significant interest given that inventories are volatile over the business cycle. I use detailed data on Swedish firms’ balance sheets, income statements, and credit scores. I employ a regression discontinuity design and a difference-in-differences analysis to examine the causal effects of financial constraints on inventory management. Firms with relaxed financing constraints increase their inventories by 20% when they get a better credit score, yet there is no robust effect on inventories relative to firm size. This study offers new insights into the influence of financial constraints on firms’ inventory strategies amidst changing economic conditions. |
Keywords: | Financial Constraints; Risk Management; Inventories; Credit Scores; Private Firms |
JEL: | D22 D25 G32 G32 |
Date: | 2023–05–24 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1463&r=fdg |
By: | Anderson, Ronald W.; Jõeveer, Karin |
Abstract: | We study the evolution of pay in US bank holding companies since 1986. We first set out the main empirical characteristics in both cross-section and time series focussing on banking structure (size and concentration) and pay characteristics given by labor's share of bank value-added, the level of an average bankers' real compensation and the sensitivity of that compensation to firm performance. Then we introduce a structural model in which bankers of heterogenous talent are matched with banks where shareholders design compensation contracts so as to maximise shareholder payoff in the face of managerial moral hazard. We calibrate this model to see if it provides an internally consistent account of the observed empirical patterns. By incorporating structural changes coinciding with three major changes in banking regulation we are able to reproduce changes in pay level and pay sensitivity observed and to establish a secular decline in labor's share consistent with a superstar firm effect in US banking. Overall we find that the observed pay fits closely to fair pay as predicted by our equilibrium model. |
Keywords: | banking industry structure; rent extraction; superstar firms; regulation |
JEL: | G21 G32 |
Date: | 2022–04–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118862&r=fdg |
By: | Pietro Alessandrini; Òscar Jordà; Fabrizio Venditti |
Abstract: | Financial markets play an important role in generating monetary policy transmission asymmetries in the US. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a monetary tightening than to an expansion. At a one year horizon, the ‘financial multiplier’ of monetary policy—defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads—is zero for a monetary expansion, -2 for a monetary tightening, and -4 for a monetary tightening that takes place under strained credit market conditions. These results have important policy implications: the central bank may inadvertently over-tighten in times of financial uncertainty. |
Keywords: | monetary policy; credit spreads; local projections; Kitagawa decomposition |
JEL: | C13 C32 E32 E52 |
Date: | 2023–05–24 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:96263&r=fdg |
By: | Taniya Ghosh (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Abhishek Gorsi (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
Abstract: | The study reexamines the relationship between money and output for the US, UK, and the Euro Area using quarterly data up to 2022. Modern central banks are focused on controlling inflation, and adjust their monetary policy and liquidity accordingly. However, it is common practise to overlook the precise effects of those actions on other variables. Unlike prior research, which has mainly focused on the linear relationship, this paper examines the asymmetric impact of money on output. The results show that a decrease in the amount of money has a much more adverse impact on output than an increase. Globally, during COVID-19, there was an infusion of liquidity that might have been useful in the short term, but the withdrawal of that excess liquidity, as been done currently by some major economies, may have long-term effects on those economies' output. |
Keywords: | Monetarism, Monetary Aggregates, Monetary Policy, Money, Money-Income-Output, NARDL, Non-Linear Granger Causality |
JEL: | E42 E52 E58 E64 |
Date: | 2023–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2023-07&r=fdg |
By: | Fabo, Brian; Jancoková, Martina; Kempf, Elisabeth; Pástor, éLuboés |
Abstract: | Fabo, Jancoková, Kempf, and Pástor (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions are replaced by regressions that downweight outliers. We examine those outliers and find no reason to downweight them. Most of them represent estimates from influential central bank papers published in respectable academic journals. For example, among the five papers finding the largest peak effect of QE on output, all five are published in high-quality journals (Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, and Applied Economics Letters), and their average number of citations is well over 200. Moreover, we show that these papers have supported policy communication by the world's leading central banks and shaped the public perception of the effectiveness of QE. New evidence based on quantile regressions further supports the results in Fabo et al. (2021). |
Keywords: | Economic research, quantitative easing, QE, central bank, career concerns |
JEL: | A11 E52 E58 G28 |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:181&r=fdg |
By: | Grodecka-Messi, Anna (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Zhang, Xin (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
Abstract: | Central banks have been considering the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The theoretical literature indicates that this may influence private banks’ lending activity and their profitability with implications for financial stability. To provide empirical evi dence on this debate, we study the effects of the arrival of a new central-bank issued currency on commercial banks in a historical setup. We use the opening of the Bank of Canada in 1935 as a natural experiment to provide evidence that banks mostly affected by the currency competition experienced lower profitability but did not decrease their lending compared to unaffected peers. |
Keywords: | Money and Banking; Central Bank Digital Currencies; Central Banks; Bank Profitability; Bank Lending; Bank of Canada; Banknote Monopoly |
JEL: | E42 E50 G21 G28 N22 |
Date: | 2023–06–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0424&r=fdg |
By: | Koont, Naz; Santos, Tano; Zingales, Luigi |
Abstract: | We study the impact of digital banking on the value of the deposit franchise and the stability of the banking sector. Using the classification of digital banking in Koont (2023), we find that when the Fed funds rate increases deposits flow out faster and the cost of deposits increases more in banks with a digital platform. The results are similar for insured and non-insured deposits. Using the model of Drechsler et al. (2023c), we find that correcting for digital betas and deposit outflows results in a deposit franchise value that is 40% lower for digital-broker banks relative to a traditional bank without digital platform. We apply this analysis to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and find that the reduced value of the deposit franchise explains why SVB was insolvent in early March 2023, even before the bank run occurred. |
Date: | 2023 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:328&r=fdg |
By: | Bertsch, Christoph (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
Abstract: | Stablecoins promise a stable and secure way to park funds in the crypto universe. However, stablecoin issuers are vulnerable to runs triggered by negative information about the quality and liquidity of their reserves, as well as custodial, operational, and technological risks. I propose a framework for analyzing the factors influencing stablecoin adoption and fragility, which offers insights for risk assessment and appropriate regulation, as well as new testable implications. Under the premise that payment preferences are heterogeneous across potential stablecoin holders, a wider adoption of stablecoins is associated with a destabilizing composition effect. Positive network effects mitigate the destabilizing composition effect, but they may also undermine the role of bank deposits as a means of payment. The marginal stablecoin adopter does not internalize these effects. Consequently, adoption is likely to be excessive. Factors that increase the issuer’s income from fees and seigniorage promote stability, as do congestion effects. A stablecoin lending market promotes both stability and adoption, if it is not undermined by speculation. The introduction of a moral hazard problem provides additional insights into reserve management and disclosure. |
Keywords: | Stablecoins; money; payment preferences; financial stability; global games |
JEL: | D83 E40 G01 G28 |
Date: | 2023–05–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0423&r=fdg |
By: | Makarov, Igor; Schoar, Antoinette |
Abstract: | In this paper, we provide detailed analyses of the Bitcoin network and its main participants. We build a novel database using a large number of public and proprietary sources to link Bitcoin addresses to real entities and develop an extensive suite of algorithms to extract information about the behavior of the main market participants. We conduct three major pieces of analysis of the Bitcoin eco-system. First, we analyze the transaction volume and network structure of the main participants on the blockchain. Second, we document the concentration and regional composition of the miners which are the backbone of the verification protocol and ensure the integrity of the blockchain ledger. Finally, we analyze the ownership concentration of the largest holders of Bitcoin. |
JEL: | G12 G15 F30 |
Date: | 2021–10–27 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118897&r=fdg |
By: | Stanis{\l}aw Dro\.zd\.z; Jaros{\l}aw Kwapie\'n; Marcin W\k{a}torek |
Abstract: | In relation to the traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market is a recent invention and the trading dynamics of all its components are readily recorded and stored. This fact opens up a unique opportunity to follow the multidimensional trajectory of its development since inception up to the present time. Several main characteristics commonly recognized as financial stylized facts of mature markets were quantitatively studied here. In particular, it is shown that the return distributions, volatility clustering effects, and even temporal multifractal correlations for a few highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies largely follow those of the well-established financial markets. The smaller cryptocurrencies are somewhat deficient in this regard, however. They are also not as highly cross-correlated among themselves and with other financial markets as the large cryptocurrencies. Quite generally, the volume V impact on price changes R appears to be much stronger on the cryptocurrency market than in the mature stock markets, and scales as $R(V) \sim V^{\alpha}$ with $\alpha \gtrsim 1$. |
Date: | 2023–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2305.05751&r=fdg |
By: | Schreiner, Lena (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of financial frictions on sustainable economic growth in the global economy. We present a model of endogenous directed technical change including a public and private financial sector, allowing for an endogenous financing decision in terms of internal and different external financing of technical change. Capturing the dynamics between the ‘global North’, i.e., the developed economies, and the ‘global South’, i.e., the developing economies, we allow for technological development to occur through innovation or imitation and, hence, capturing technology diffusion processes in the global economy. Our findings substantiate the way in which the presence of financing costs and frictions in the financial markets—which are elevated with regards to sustainable innovation and in the developing world—cause the global economy to converge towards a non-sustainable growth path in the absence of policy intervention. This development can be addressed partially, but not fully, by sustainable public investment. However, to steer the economy to a fully sustainable growth path, an additional regulation or incentivization of private investors is necessary. Alternatively, a sufficiently high carbon price can be set. However, other than in the current reality, this carbon price would have to cover a large share of global emissions. |
Keywords: | Sustainable innovation; sustainable finance; innovation finance; green growth; financing frictions; directed technical change; endogenous innovation |
JEL: | N70 O11 O16 O19 O31 O33 O44 Q43 |
Date: | 2023–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2023_003&r=fdg |