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on Financial Development and Growth |
| By: | Philippe Aghion (Harvard University [Cambridge]); Antonin Bergeaud (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Gilbert Cette (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Rémy Lecat (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Hélène Maghin |
| Abstract: | We identify two counteracting effects of credit access on productivity growth: on the one hand, better access to credit makes it easier for entrepreneurs to innovate; on the other hand, better credit access allows less efficient incumbent firms to remain longer on the market, thereby discouraging entry of new and potentially more efficient innovators. We first develop a simple model of firm dynamics and innovation‐based growth with credit constraints, where the above two counteracting effects generate an inverted‐U relationship between credit access and productivity growth. Then we test our theory on a comprehensive French manufacturing firm‐level dataset. We first show evidence of an inverted‐U relationship between credit constraints and productivity growth when we aggregate our data at the sectoral level. We then move to firm‐level analysis, and show that incumbent firms with easier access to credit experience higher productivity growth, but that they also experience lower exit rates, particularly the least productive firms among them. To support these findings, we exploit the 2012 Eurosystem's Additional Credit Claims programme as a quasi‐experiment that generated an exogenous extra supply of credits for a subset of incumbent firms. |
| Keywords: | credit constraint,firms,growth,interest rate,productivity |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01976402&r=all |
| By: | Sergio Salas; Kathleen Odell |
| Abstract: | In spite of extensive research exploring the implications of financial matters for economic growth, a general equilibrium macroeconomic model of financial frictions with human capital as an engine of growth is lacking in the literature. This paper helps to fill this gap, proposing a model that includes endogenous growth, human capital, and financial constraints. We derive short-term and long-term predictions from the model. From a long run perspective, we explore the relationship between financial depth and growth, and predict that this relationship is non-monotonic. Higher financial depth is initially associated with higher growth, but at diminishing rates. Further increases in financial depth become growth detrimental. From a short-run perspective, we analyze the role of transitory financial disruptions in producing persistent economic changes, a phenomenon that arguably happened during the Great Recession and the years that followed. We propose an explanation for these persistent effects based on human capital. |
| Keywords: | endogenous growth, financial depth, credit crunch, human capital, heterogeneous agents, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | O4 E44 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucv:wpaper:2020-01&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the role of insurance in economic growth on a panel of forty-eight countries in Africa for the period 2004-2014. The research question the study seeks to answer is the following: what thresholds of insurance penetration positively affect economic growth in Africa? The empirical evidence is based on Generalized Method of Moments. Life insurance increases economic growth while the effect of non-life insurance is not significant. Increasing both life insurance and non-life insurance has negative net effects on economic growth. From an extended analytical exercise, 4.149 of life insurance premium (% of GDP) is the minimum critical mass required for life insurance to positively affect economic prosperity while 1.805 of non-life insurance premium (% of GDP) is the minimum threshold required for non-life insurance to positively affect economic prosperity. Thresholds are also provided from the Hansen (1999) Panel Threshold Regression technique using a balanced sample of 28 countries. |
| Keywords: | Insurance; Economic Growth |
| JEL: | G20 I28 I30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101135&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | The research assesses how information and communication technology (ICT) modulates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth dynamics in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-2014. The employed economic growth dynamics areGross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita while ICT is measured by mobile phone penetration and internet penetration. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The study finds that both internet penetration and mobile phone penetration overwhelmingly modulate FDI to induce overall positive net effects on all three economic growth dynamics. Moreover, the positive net effects are consistently more apparent in internet-centric regressions compared to “mobile phone”-oriented specifications. In the light of negative interactive effects, net effects are decomposed to provide thresholds at which ICT policy variables should be complemented with other policy initiatives in order to engender favorable outcomes on economic growth dynamics. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Economic Output; Foreign Investment; Information Technology; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E23 F21 F30 L96 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101136&r=all |
| By: | Nguena, Christian-Lambert; Kodila-Tedika, Oasis |
| Abstract: | This paper mainly examines the effect of financial development on the recession, while controlling for potential recession factors. Using panel data of 129 countries spanning 1990-2010, we implemented “Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing”, “Local Linear” and “Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares” regression methods along with a Sasabuchi test to verify the inverse U-shape to estimate the extreme point for the non-linear specification. We mainly found a nonlinear and thus U-shaped relationship between recession and financial development with a threshold effect of 1.1528, which validate financial development recessive and expansionary real impacts. The financial development process presents an expansionary impact for countries with financial performance less than 1.1528, and countries with financial performance above the threshold of 1.1528 present a recessionary impact of financial development. Moreover, we found that trade openness contributes to increasing recession independently to the estimation method. Thus during economic crises of recession, policymakers should hold-on regional integration along with globalization doctrines. On the contrary, fuels for South Asia (SASIA) and Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries and financial openness for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries impact negatively recessions; countries who manage their oil production in a good manner will also reduce the probability and impact of recessions, and appear to have an expansionary real impact only. Thus, to fight against recession, SASIA and LAC countries should well manage oil production and usage while SSA countries may manage their financial openness. Verifying the robustness permit us to confirm the baseline and extended model specification findings in terms of coefficients sign and significance; furthermore, to highlight SSA, SASIA and LAC as the order of continental/regional importance in increasing magnitude. Finally, the semiparametric regression shows that the results of the parametric part converge with the previous results in general, and bear out with illustration the functional form of the nonlinear relation between recession and financial development. |
| Keywords: | Economic recession,Financial development,Macroeconomic disaster,Barro & Ursha database |
| JEL: | E32 E44 O16 O50 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:555&r=all |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Raghuram Rajan; Jack Shim |
| Abstract: | How is a developing country affected by its odious government’s ability to borrow in international markets? We examine the dynamics of a country’s growth, consumption, and sovereign debt, assuming that the government is myopic and wants to maximize short-term, socially unproductive, spending. Interestingly, access to external borrowing can extend the government’s effective horizon; the government’s ability to borrow hinges on its convincing investors they will be repaid, which gives it a stake in the future. The lengthening of the government’s effective horizon can incentivize it to tax less, resulting in higher steady-state household consumption than if it could not borrow. However, in a developing country that saves little, the government may engage in more repressive policies to enhance its debt capacity, which only ensures that successor governments repress as well. This leads to a “growth trap” where household steady-state consumption is lower than if the government had no access to debt. We characterize circumstances in which odious government leads to odious debt and those in which it does not, and discuss policies that might ameliorate the welfare of the citizenry. |
| JEL: | F3 G28 H2 H3 H6 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27221&r=all |
| By: | Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja) (University of New South Wales); Wong, Chun Yee (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the success of Inflation Targeting on inflation and growth on a large panel data set of both developing and developed countries. Earlier studies have found contradictory results depending on the methodology used, different authors have used different estimation methods on different samples of data. Some of the differences in results may also be due to the different time periods (or different frequencies of data) used in the estimation. In this paper, we provide evidence to show that the support for a successful Inflation Targeting policy is very weak or non-existent. We use various estimation methods on panel data on a large sample of countries. We note that the results depend critically on the sample selected, the method of estimation employed, and the procedure used to control for outliers. Section 2 of the paper outlines the process by which inflation targeting is hypothesised to influence inflation and growth, Section 3 surveys this literature, and Section 4 describes the data and provides descriptive statistics comparing the performance of Inflation Targeting countries and non-Inflation Targeting countries, Section 5 uses panel estimation methods including GMM techniques on different samples of data and demonstrates the fragile nature of the results. Section 6 provides the conclusions that suggest that IT policy does not necessarily help to reduce inflation and certainly does not stimulate economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, inflation, growth |
| JEL: | E31 J68 J08 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13284&r=all |
| By: | OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi; TAKAOKA Sumiko |
| Abstract: | Predicting the future economy is of great interest for practitioners and policymakers. This study challenges this problem by examining the relation between credit spread curves and future economic activity. To this end, we calculate the credit spreads of corporate bonds at the firm level to construct an empirical distribution of credit spread curves covering every month from April 2004 to March 2019. Then we examine which deciles of this empirical distribution have more predictive power for economic growth rates. Our results indicate that the credit spread curve information in higher-ranked deciles (implying lower credit quality) is the most useful and economically important for the business cycle. We also distinguish between two regimes according to credit spread uncertainty by employing a smooth-transition model to determine whether this uncertainty affects the predictive relationship between credit spread curves and the business cycle in Japan. Our results suggest that the predictive power of credit spread curves heavily depends on uncertainty in the corporate bond market. More specifically, our results demonstrate that the credit spread curves have more predictive power for economic growth rates under the low corporate bond market uncertainty regime. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20030&r=all |
| By: | ASAOKA Shintaro |
| Abstract: | By using a simple macroeconomic model, this study demonstrates the possibility that a bubble exists whether the economy is in a boom or a recession. We use an overlapping-generations model with endogenous growth. The results demonstrate that in an economy where banks can lend to consumers, there exists a single equilibrium path in which the economic growth rate fluctuates with the bubble. On the contrary, in an economy where banks cannot lend to consumers, the equilibrium path does not exist. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20041&r=all |
| By: | Ozge Akinci; Gianluca Benigno; Albert Queraltó |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 outbreak has triggered unusually fast outflows of dollar funding from emerging market economies (EMEs). These outflows are known as “sudden stop” episodes, and they are typically followed by economic contractions. In this post, we assess the macroeconomic effects of the COVID-induced sudden stop of capital flows to EMEs, using our open-economy DSGE model. Unlike existing frameworks, such as the Federal Reserve Board’s SIGMA model, our model features both domestic and international financial constraints, making it well-suited to capture the effects of an outflow of dollar funding. The model predicts output losses in EMEs due in part to the adverse effect of local currency depreciation on private-sector balance sheets with dollar debts. The financial stresses in EMEs, in turn, spill back to the U.S. economy, through both trade and financial channels. The model-predicted output losses are persistent (consistent with previous sudden stop episodes), with financial effects being a significant drag on the recovery. We stress that we are only tracing out the effects of one particular channel (the stop of capital flows and its associated effect on funding costs) and not the totality of COVID-related effects. |
| Keywords: | sudden stops; COVID-19; spillovers and spillbacks |
| JEL: | E2 F1 |
| Date: | 2020–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87990&r=all |
| By: | Laeven, Luc; Valencia, Fabian |
| Abstract: | This paper updates the database on systemic banking crises presented in Laeven and Valencia (2013a). Drawing on 151 systemic banking crises episodes around the globe during 1970-2017, the database includes information on crisis dates, policy responses to resolve banking crises, and the fiscal and output costs of crises. We provide new evidence that crises in high-income countries tend to last longer and be associated with higher output losses, lower fiscal costs, and more extensive use of bank guarantees and expansionary macro policies than crises in low- and middle-income countries. We complement the banking crises dates with sovereign debt and currency crises dates to find that sovereign debt and currency crises tend to coincide with or follow banking crises. |
| Keywords: | Bank Restructuring; Banking Crisis; Crisis Resolution; financial crisis |
| JEL: | E50 E60 G20 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14569&r=all |
| By: | Franklin Allen; Xian Gu; Julapa Jagtiani |
| Abstract: | The intersection of finance and technology, known as fintech, has resulted in the dramatic growth of innovations and has changed the entire financial landscape. While fintech has a critical role to play in democratizing credit access to the unbanked and thin-file consumers around the globe, those consumers who are currently well served also turn to fintech for faster services and greater transparency. Fintech, particularly the blockchain, has the potential to be disruptive to financial systems and intermediation. Our aim in this paper is to provide a comprehensive fintech literature survey with relevant research studies and policy discussion around the various aspects of fintech. The topics include marketplace and peer-to-peer lending, credit scoring, alternative data, distributed ledger technologies, blockchain, smart contracts, cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings, central bank digital currency, robo-advising, quantitative investment and trading strategies, cybersecurity, identity theft, cloud computing, use of big data and artificial intelligence and machine learning, identity and fraud detection, anti-money laundering, Know Your Customers, natural language processing, regtech, insuretech, sandboxes, and fintech regulations. |
| Keywords: | fintech; marketplace lending; P2P; alternative data; DLT; blockchain; robo advisor; regtech; insuretech; cryptocurrencies; ICOs; CBDC; cloud computing; AML; KYC; NLP; fintech regulations |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G18 L21 |
| Date: | 2020–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:88120&r=all |
| By: | Chimere O. Iheonu (University of Nigeria, Nsukka); Tochukwu Nwachukwu (Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of household consumption in selected West African countries. The study employed the panel augmented mean group procedure which accounts for heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence in the modelling exercise for the period 1989 to 2018. Empirical results reveal that “gross domestic product per capita” and “domestic credit to the private sector” significantly improve household consumption in the selected West African countries as a whole. However, country-specific results show differences in terms of the magnitude of the coefficients, the significance and even the signs of the regressors. Policy recommendations based on these findings are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Household consumption; West Africa |
| JEL: | E21 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:20/031&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Xuan V. Vo (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | There is a glaring concern of income inequality in the light of the post-2015 global development agenda of sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially for countries that are in the south of the Sahara. There are also concerns over the present and future consequences of environmental degradation on development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study provides carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions thresholds that should be avoided in the nexus between financial development and income inequality in a panel of 39 countries in SSA over the period 2004-2014. Quantile regressions are used as an empirical strategy. The following findings are established. Financial development unconditionally decreases income inequality with an increasing negative magnitude while the interactions between financial development and CO2 emissions have the opposite effect with an increasing positive magnitude. The underlying nexuses are significant exclusively in the median and top quantiles of the income inequality distribution. CO2 emission thresholds that should not be exceeded in order for financial development to continuously reduce income inequality are 0.222, 0.200 and 0.166 metric tons per capita for the median, 75th quantile and 90th quantile of the income inequality distribution, respectively. Policy implications are discussed with particular relevance to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy; Inequality; Finance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Sustainable development |
| JEL: | H10 Q20 Q30 O11 O55 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:20/030&r=all |
| By: | Baah A. Kusi (University of Ghana Business School, Ghana); Elikplimi K. Agbloyor (University of Ghana Business School, Ghana); Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako (University of Ghana Business School, Ghana); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of private and public sector led financial sector transparency on bank interest margins across eighty-six economies. Using a two-step dynamic system generalized method of moments, least square dummy variables, fixed effects and bootstrap quantile panel models between 2005 and 2016, the findings of the two-step GMM are reported as follows. First, results reveal that financial sector transparency whether led by private or public sector reduces interest margins. Second, while no statistical evidence was found on which of the two (private or public sector led transparency) is more effective in dealing with bank interest margins, public sector-led financial transparency is found to be more consistent in reducing bank interest margins across many more economies. Third, the study shows that the effect of financial sector transparency is visible at lower and middle levels of bank interest margins implying that economies with lower and moderately high bank interest margin level can benefit more from policies targeted at improving transparency in the financial sector. These findings imply that the sampled countries must enact policies and laws that deepen and expand financial sector transparency in order to potentially reduce bank interest margins for the good of banking market participants and society at large. |
| Keywords: | Financial Sector Transparency; Net Interest margins; Private Sector; Public Sector |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:20/028&r=all |
| By: | Sapian, Safeza; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper makes an attempt to investigate whether the macroeconomic factors contribute to the credit risk exposure and non-performing financing (NPF) of Islamic banks. Malaysia is taken as a case study. The standard time series techniques are used to analyze the issue. The variables that have been chosen for the study are gross domestic product (GDP), Non-Performing Financing rate, Islamic financing rate (IFR) and unemployment rate (UMPT). The findings tend to indicate that Islamic Financing rate (IFR) stands out as the only factor that had a significant impact on the credit risk exposure and non-performing financing as well as the performance of Islamic banks in the context of Malaysia. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Banks, Credit Risk, Non-performing Financing, Time Series Analysis, Malaysia |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100719&r=all |
| By: | Abu Bakr, Norhidayah; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Credit instability can cause severe negative impact to the long-term economic growth. It is also directly related to the recurring systemic banking and financial crisis. Driven by these motivations, this study aims to empirically analyze the factors that might explain credit cycle at bank level by taking Malaysia as the case study. We aim to make a comparison between Islamic and conventional banks by identifying whether the factors accounting for credit cycles between the two systems are different. By dividing the estimations into two data sets, the findings suggest: lagged credit cycle, asset price, excessive extension of bank credit and capital outflow are the factors that might influence credit cycle in the long term. While in the short-term, the factors are asset price, availability of loanable funds, banks’ capital, banks’ size, inflation, real interest rate, and capital outflows. Interestingly, our analysis supports empirically that there are some differences between Islamic and conventional banking system. Our findings acknowledged that Islamic banks hold some unique characteristics in the principles of its operations. Another important implication is that policy makers and industry players could observe the behaviour of the suggested factors and take the right actions to reduce the severity of the impact of unpredictable credit crunch. |
| Keywords: | credit cycle, determinants factors, Islamic and conventional banks |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101110&r=all |
| By: | Nandonde, Felix; Adu-Gyamfi, Richard; Mmusi, Tinaye; Wamalwa, Herbert; Asongu, Simplice; Opperman, Johannes; Makindara, Jeremiah |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, the impact of South African foreign direct investment in Africa has been captured by research and policy. This paper investigates linkages and spillover effects of South African foreign direct investment in Botswana and Kenya. The study uses primary data to investigate qualitative implications. The findings reveal that South African firms operate in sectors including retail, food-processing, and information and communication technology. Linkages forged in these sectors include supply, employee, joint venture, service, and institutional nexuses. Supply and service linkages create observable spillovers which point to the fact that younger local firms tend to benefit from South African firms in terms of technology transfer and training opportunities. Host country policymakers are therefore encouraged to provide favourable incentives for foreign direct investment to promote entrepreneurship. Other policy implications are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, linkages, spillover effects, South Africa, Botswana, Kenya |
| JEL: | E23 F21 F30 L96 L98 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101137&r=all |
| By: | Bermejo, Vicente; Ferreira, Miguel; Wolfenzon, Daniel; Zambrana, Rafael |
| Abstract: | The Spanish Christmas Lottery is the largest lottery worldwide. We exploit local windfall gains arising from lottery prizes to estimate the effect of income on entrepreneurship. We find higher firm creation and greater self-employment in winning provinces. Our estimates imply that 46 firms are created for every â?¬1,000 increase in disposable income per capita. The effect occurs in both non-tradable and tradable industries, and is more pronounced in regions with poorer access to finance. Firms created in winning provinces are larger, create more value-added, and are more likely to survive. These results suggest that local income and financial development are important drivers of entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | Aggregate income; entrepreneurship; Financial Development; firm creation; Local demand; public policy; Self-employment |
| JEL: | D14 L26 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14638&r=all |
| By: | Michel Benoit-Cattin (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a characterization of the smallholder and of his socio economical logic. If investing means increase the stock of capital, it is necessary to consider the capital of the small holders according to different aspects: the human, social and political capital, the natural capital, the material capital and the monetary capital. Ways and constraints for increasing these different capitals are identified and discussed and then connected to the corresponding public policies. |
| Abstract: | Ce texte propose une caractérisation du petit producteur agricole et de sa logique socio-économique. Si investir c'est augmenter le stock de capital, il faut envisager le capital des petits producteurs sous ses différentes formes : le capital humain, social et politique, le capital naturel, le capital matériel et le capital monétaire. Les modalités et contraintes à l'augmentation de ces différents capitaux sont énumérées et discutées puis mises en relation avec les politiques publiques concernées. |
| Keywords: | capital,productivite,smallholders,livelihood assets,investment,productivity,public policies,petit producteur,investissement,politiques publiques |
| Date: | 2020–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02805376&r=all |