|
on Microeconomic European Issues |
| By: | Jelena Reljic; Francesco Zezza |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the long-standing debate on the Italian North–South divide by assessing the impact of public spending on social infrastructure - including education, healthcare, childcare and social assistance - on the gender employment gap over the last two decades, using a P-SVAR analysis. These investments, while not explicitly targeting women, may increase both their labour supply - by reducing the unpaid care work burden - and pro-women labour demand through job creation in care sectors that predominantly employ women. Our research reveals a positive and long-lasting impact of social infrastructure expenditure on private investment, GDP and employment in all areas of the country. However, the reduction of the gender employment gap is detected only in the South and among high-skilled women. These results stress the need for targeted policies to fill the investment gaps in social infrastructure, aiming for a more inclusive labour market, particularly in Southern regions, which suffer from chronic underinvestment and structural challenges. |
| Keywords: | Social infrastructure; Gender inequality; Fiscal Policy; Panel SVAR; Italian regions |
| JEL: | C33 E24 H30 J16 J18 J21 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp246&r=eur |
| By: | Maxime Liegey; Nathalie Picard |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to contribute to the analysis of the impact of employees’ working conditions on union membership by specifically examining whether being exposed to job strain (or job iso-strain) increases the propensity to join unions. The study is based on data from the REPONSE survey, carried out in France in 2011. Two-level (individual / economic sector) logistic regression models are used to analyse the individual decision of union membership while accounting for sectoral effects. The results indicate that having a job with low or medium decision latitude (as opposed to high decision latitude) is associated with a higher probability of union membership. This latter effect is stronger when support from the hierarchy is low rather than high or medium. By contrast, the level of psychological demand does not seem to have any significant influence on unionisation. The link between job iso-strain (or a certain form of iso-strain) and union membership remains significant when the potential endogeneity of this factor is taken into account. These findings lend some support to theories like the frustration-aggression approach, which relates the union membership decision to work dissatisfaction and the desire of employees to change their working conditions. |
| Keywords: | Trade unions; Union membership; Working conditions; Job strain; Economic sectors; France. |
| JEL: | C33 J31 J42 J62 R10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-11&r=eur |
| By: | Léa Cimelli; Carole Bonnet; Anne Solaz |
| Abstract: | Though the number of divorces has stabilized in several European countries at prime age, it continues to increase at older ages. Drawing upon a large French administrative database, the Echantillon Démographique Permanent (Permanent Demographic Sample), a panel study that follows 4.4% of the French population every year, this paper presents new findings on the economic consequences of grey divorces, occurring at age 50 and over. We implement a two-way fixed-effect regression with a control group to assess the causal effects of divorce on men and women. To do so, we compare divorced individuals with people that will divorce but have not done so yet. The results confirm that the decrease in living standards is larger, on average, for women than for men. For the former, this decrease is larger when divorce occurs after 50 (24% one year after the divorce) than before (18%). Thus, grey divorce increases gender inequalities following break-ups. Public and private transfers mitigate post-grey divorce gender inequalities, especially for the poorest women. Recovery through re-partnering plays an important role in moderating the negative consequences of divorce. |
| Keywords: | grey divorce, gender inequalities, living standards, public transfer, private transfer, two-way fixed effects, France, DIVORCE / DIVORCE, FRANCE / FRANCE, NIVEAU DE VIE / STANDARD OF LIVING, SENIOR / SENIOR, CONSEQUENCE ECONOMIQUE / ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:wjtfhy4bmxbah6bflaj5&r=eur |
| By: | Serenella Caravella; Giovanni Cerulli; Francesco Crespi; Eleonora Pierucci |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the growth-enhancing effect of different types of innovative activities, i.e., standard-innovation and eco-innovation by focusing on the potential role of exports in mediating the innovation-growth nexus. The empirical study is carried out on a representative sample of Italian firms built by integrating data from the Italian CIS-Community Innovation Survey with the ASIA-FRAME database of the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT), which reports information on export values and employment dynamics. The econometric analysis applies Structural Equations Models (SEM) and a two-step counterfactual analysis. Results show that export activities, spurred by engagement in innovation efforts, represent a powerful transmission channel through which innovation displays its effect on firms’ growth. Moreover, results highlight the existence of some heterogeneity in the capacity of different types of innovation activities, i.e., standard-innovation and eco-innovation to leverage the export channel to foster firms’ growth. In particular, the empirical evidence has identified a stronger indirect export-mediated impact for Efficiency-improving (EFI) than for Pollutionreducing (PR) Eco-innovation. |
| Keywords: | Eco-innovation, Export-mediated effect, Innovation-growth nexus |
| JEL: | Q52 Q55 L25 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0282&r=eur |
| By: | BORNUKOVA Kateryna (European Commission - JRC); HERNANDEZ MARTIN Adrian (European Commission - JRC); PICOS Fidel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The EU committed to meet the poverty reduction target set in the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan, which entails to reduce the number of children at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 5 million by 2030. The paper assesses the impact of child-contingent cash support in EU-27 in 2019-2022 on child poverty and inequality and sheds light on the role this kind of support plays, or could further play, when it comes to meeting the 2030 child poverty target. We use the microsimulation model EUROMOD to identify child-contingent cash support and find significant variation in average support per child across EU-27, ranging from 3.2% of GDP per capita in Ireland to 12% of GDP per capita in Austria. Correspondingly, the impact of child-contingent cash support on reducing child at-risk-of-poverty rates varies from 4 p.p. in Portugal to 16 p.p. in Slovakia. The inequality-reducing effect is highly correlated with poverty reduction. With rare exceptions, countries rely on child benefits as a primary source of child-contingent cash support, as opposed to tax-based support. Non-poor households receive over 50% of total child-contingent cash support in most EU countries. Means-tested benefits, while better targeted to impoverished households, do not always provide enough support to lift them above the poverty line. We do not observe correlation between child-contingent cash support, other benefits, and in-kind child support. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202402&r=eur |
| By: | Francesco Chiocchio (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | How do property taxes affect house prices, homeownership, and welfare? I focus on Italy, a country with high homeownership, an outdated property tax system, and failed reform attempts. As in many other countries, owner-occupied houses are exempt from property taxes in Italy. Additionally, property taxes are calculated using outdated cadastral values. I show that using cadastral values creates a regressive property tax since cadastral values are relatively lower for more expensive housing units. I develop a life-cycle model with endogenous homeownership to assess the effects of reforming the current system. My findings show that removing the owner-occupied exemption and adjusting cadastral values to market values increases government property tax revenues as a percentage of GDP by over 0.8 percentage points but also increases homeownership rates by 1.2 percentage points. The increase in homeownership results from lower property tax rates on smaller houses. Finally, I show that in the short run, the reform increases the welfare of young households but lowers the welfare of older ones. In the long run, welfare increases for new generations. Higher welfare is mainly due to the decrease in house prices in equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Property taxes and assessment, housing markets, homeownership, wealth accumulation and bequests. |
| JEL: | D15 H24 H31 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2024_2404&r=eur |
| By: | Gil-Hernández, Carlos J.; Salas Rojo, Pedro; Vidal-Lorda, Guillem; Villani, Davide |
| Abstract: | Wealth is a central determinant of life chances and intergenerational status persistence in modern societies. Yet, sociologists traditionally overlooked its role in class measurement and inequality, while most economists focused on the elites. This article reconciles sociological and economic perspectives on class analysis by examining the relationship between classes and wealth inequality versus income. Drawing from the Luxembourg Wealth Study (2002-2018) in five European countries, we test whether occupational classes, based on the entire division of labour, keep up with rising economic inequality trends. In contrast to bold claims on class death or decomposition, inequality of outcomes in wealth accumulation is firmly rooted across occupational classes in contemporary capitalism, potentially harming future equal opportunity and social mobility. Still, occupational classes better capture between-group income inequality and stratification than wealth, emphasising the importance of economic resources beyond labour market attachment that spark advances in social class theory and measurement. |
| Keywords: | wealth; income; social class; inequality; stratification |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122125&r=eur |
| By: | Fabrice Murtin |
| Abstract: | This paper first presents a meta-analysis of the causal impact of cultural participation on well-being. The meta-analysis classifies the literature according to the strength of the evidence available and various types of cultural activities. Secondly, this paper uses data from time use surveys from Canada, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States to study individuals’ emotional responses to a series of daily activities. This is then used as a basis for an empirical assessment of the drivers of time allocation across different activities, showing that expectations of future well-being are one of the reasons why individuals decide to engage in cultural activities. Furthermore, the model helps explain why cultural participation, in spite of being one of the most enjoyable human activities, is also the least undertaken. We show that heterogeneity of preferences results in a strong selection effect in available statistics. |
| Keywords: | arts, cultural activities, experienced well-being, time use survey, U-index, well-being |
| JEL: | I31 J22 Z11 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:wiseaa:21-en&r=eur |
| By: | Manduca, Robert; Hell, Maximilian; Adermon, Adrian; Blanden, Jo; Bratberg, Espen; C. Gielen, Anne; Van Kippersluis, Hans; Bok Lee, Keun; Machin, Stephen; D. Munk, Martin; Nybom, Martin; Ostrovsky, Yuri; Rahman, Sumaiya; Sirnio, Outi |
| Abstract: | We use linked parent-child administrative data for five countries in North America and Europe, and detailed survey data for two more, to investigate methodological challenges in the estimation of absolute income mobility. We show that the commonly used “copula and marginals” approximation methods perform well across countries in our sample, and the greatest challenges to their accuracy stem not from assumptions about relative mobility rates over time but from the use of non-representative marginal income distributions. We also provide a multi-country analysis of sensitivity to specification decisions related to age of income measurement, income concept, family structure, and price index. |
| Keywords: | Consolidator grant ERC-2013-CoG-617965 (Sirniö). Page 1 of 130; 724363 |
| JEL: | D31 J62 E24 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122124&r=eur |
| By: | Manuel Alejandro Cardenete; M. Carmen Lima; Ferran Sancho |
| Abstract: | We study the role that the productive structure plays in determining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by industry. Specifically, we distinguish and isolate the interdependencies originating from the structure of the demand for inputs from those resulting from the supply structure. This separation has the advantage of enabling a better identification of the causal origin of emissions and allows the establishment of a catalog of industries based on their characteristics as demanders or suppliers of inputs. This information, linked to the different nature of demand or supply, can be relevant for designing more effective emission containment measures. The empirical basis of the analysis utilizes input-output data for Spain in 2020, while the methodological platform is an adaptation of the hypothetical extraction method (HEM). |
| Keywords: | demand-induced emissions, supply-induced emissions, selective extractions |
| JEL: | C67 D57 Q51 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1435&r=eur |
| By: | Berriochoa, Kattalina; Busemeyer, Marius R. |
| Abstract: | The rise of knowledge economies is transforming labor markets with substantial socio-political implications. Recent literature suggests that these economies foster voters who, due to the current or potential experience of upward mobility, are less likely to support far-right parties. Using novel survey data for the case of Germany, we examine this assertion by analyzing the association between the local share of knowledge-based economic activity and individual mobility perceptions and vote choices. We find that individual mobility perceptions are - somewhat counterintuitively - more negative in thriving local knowledge economies (LKEs). We also examine how these local economic contexts and mobility perceptions explain vote choices, focusing on support for the Greens and the right-wing populist AfD, finding that electoral support for the Greens is strongly and positively associated with well-developed LKEs and less influenced by mobility perceptions, while the latter matters more in the case of support for the AfD. Yet, we also find that thriving LKEs can reinforce the impact of static mobility perceptions increasing support for the AfD. Our analysis shows that LKEs, while a sign of positive economic growth, can also lead to friction between individuals with different perceptions of mobility likely reflecting the winners and losers of technological and labor market changes at the local level. |
| Keywords: | Political Preferences, Inequality, Knowledge Economy, Populism, Local Context |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:287740&r=eur |
| By: | Ohler, Johann |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the individual-level assumptions of the Malthusian model in pre-industrial Germany. By exploiting demographic records for 150, 000 individuals from the historical county of Wittgenstein, I test for status gradients in child mortality (the Malthusian positive check) and marital fertility (preventive check). While I find no evidence for a status gradient in child mortality, I find strong evidence for a status gradient in fertility. The richest families had, on average, one extra child when compared to their poorer compatriots. Turning to the mechanics of the preventive check, this appears to have been driven mostly by an earlier age of marriage amongst high status families. Disaggregating my dataset into six periods reveals that this fertility differential began to disintegrate around 1800. Ergo, I conclude that prior to 1800, the German population was subject to some Malthusian forces, albeit it was not stuck in a rigid Malthusian equilibrium, as conceptualised by some neo Malthusian scholars. |
| Keywords: | German Economic History; Malthus; Demographic History; European Marriage Pattern; Unified Growth Theory |
| JEL: | J12 J13 N33 N93 O40 |
| Date: | 2024–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120451&r=eur |
| By: | Silva, Buddhika; Hasan, Amena |
| Abstract: | Driven by societal pressures and a growing focus on diversity, corporations are increasingly seeking to diversify their leadership teams. Female representation on corporate boards is a topic of growing interest, with many European countries recently implementing formal gender diversity requirements. This study analyzes existing research on gender diversity in boardrooms, examining the characteristics of women directors, the challenges they encounter, and the barriers hindering their advancement. Despite the recognized benefits of gender diversity, male-dominated boards and ingrained gender biases often confine women to lower-level positions. As women climb the corporate ladder, they face the "glass ceiling" and "glass cliff" phenomena, further limiting their progress. However, research reveals no significant difference in long-term financial performance between companies led by men and women. In fact, increased female representation can positively impact innovation. This suggests that the glass ceiling and other barriers are not based on a lack of talent among women but rather on unconscious biases and discriminatory practices. This article advocates for balanced board representation based on qualifications, fostering true gender diversity and unlocking its potential benefits for organizations. |
| Keywords: | Empowerment, innovation, leadership, biases, gender roles, discrepancies, financial performance |
| JEL: | D6 D60 D63 N3 N9 |
| Date: | 2023–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120388&r=eur |
| By: | Krämer-Eis, Helmut; Croce, Annalisa |
| Abstract: | The EIF Private Equity Mid-Market Survey and the EIF Venture Capital Survey (the largest combined regular survey exercises among General Partners on a pan-European level) provide an opportunity to retrieve unique market insights. This publication is based on the results of the 2023 EIF Private Equity Mid-Market Survey, conducted by the EIF. The paper focuses on the market sentiment, as well as on issues related to scale-up financing and human capital. The study looks at the current situation, developments in the recent past and expectations for the future. It highlights substantial challenges, but also opportunities as perceived by survey participants. The main results are summarised and compared over time. The publication provides a valuable picture of the developments in the PE mid-market sector in 2023, as well as an outlook for the near future. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eifwps:287747&r=eur |
| By: | Steinhoff, Brigitte |
| Abstract: | Affordable housing is rare in many German cities and municipalities. Publicly social housing in terms of its quality, sustainability, and affordability is a contemporary issue which is more relevant than ever. The federal and state governments have initiated subsidy programs to increase social housing units, but private investors have been hesitant due to perceived economic risks and psychological barriers. Psychological barriers to investment in affordable housing exist and are significant. Prejudices are prevalent and, together with misinformation, lead to misperceptions among potential investors. Besides investors' concerns and doubts, the population and neighbourhood of affordable housing projects have their doubts and fears. The paper deals with the question of how society deals with new affordable housing and what is the impact on people and society in Germany. Expert interviews provide information about the knowledge base on social acceptability of new affordable housing. The study offers a unique opportunity to understand personal attitudes towards new low- and moderate-income housing. The findings show that there is a basic understanding of affordable housing. Through meticulous execution, it yields dependable statistics on experts' opinions and behaviours. The findings serve as a crucial basis for making informed decisions and guiding future research initiatives within the affordable housing sector. |
| Keywords: | Affordable housing; Germany; publicly social new rental housing; framing the issue of affordable housing; not-in-my-backyard; social acceptability |
| JEL: | M14 M38 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120448&r=eur |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yang Yu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | This paper shows the importance of technological synergies among heterogeneous firms for aggregate fluctuations. First, we document six novel empirical facts using microdata that suggest the existence of important technological synergies between trading firms, the presence of positive assortative matching among firms, and their evolution during the business cycle. Next, we embed technological synergies in a general equilibrium model calibrated on firm-level data. We show that frictions in forming trading relationships and separation costs explain imperfect sorting between firms in equilibrium. In particular, an increase in the volatility of idiosyncratic productivity shocks significantly decreases aggregate output without resorting to non-convex adjustment costs. |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1037&r=eur |
| By: | Michael Keen; Christos Kotsogiannis |
| Abstract: | Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanisms (BCAMs) are becoming reality in the EU and elsewhere, and recur—in very different form—in U.S. legislative proposals. But they remain contentious, with features and differences that leave the underlying welfare rationale and implications unclear. Exploring these, this paper establishes two general principles for Pareto efficient BCAM design: regulatory measures should be recognized symmetrically with explicit carbon prices; and, whatever the ambition of mitigation in the BCA-imposing country, a general ‘difference-in-differences’ form of a BCAM is appropriate. These nest, as special cases, the very different approaches to BCAM design in Europe and the U.S. |
| Keywords: | environmental taxation, carbon pricing, border tax adjustment, international taxation |
| JEL: | H21 H23 H87 F18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11016&r=eur |
| By: | Abir Khribich (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Rami H. Kacem (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Nabeul, University of Carthage, Tunisia; LEGI, Tunisia Polytechnic School); Damien Bazin (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France) |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have been proposed in the literature to analyse the determinants of renewable energy consumption and their effects. Nevertheless, despite the various proposed methods and obtained results, nothing is known about which factors are most or least important. This paper proposes to contribute to the literature by comparing their effects and ranking them according to their importance. This additional information may be important when developing policies for energy transition. The proposed procedure is based on the estimation of a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model including simultaneously the commonly considered factors affecting renewable energy consumption in the literature, to be able to compare their effects. Next, impulse response functions are drawn, and variances decompositions are made to provide additional information about how renewable energy consumption responds to shocks in each of the considered factors. Empirical validation for 22 high-income countries reveals that financial development is the most important factor that can affect positively renewable energy consumption. Also, it is found that the response of renewable energy consumption to one shock in financial development is the strongest among the studied factors and lasts to the long run. The variance decompositions show that the contributions to the variation in renewable energy consumption are different from one factor to another. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy consumption, determinant factors, comparative analysis, PVAR model, high-income countries |
| JEL: | Q20 Q28 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2024-08&r=eur |
| By: | Laszlo Goerke (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University); Nora Paulus (University of Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | If a profit-maximising firm credibly commits to an employment-enhancing Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) objective in negotiations with a trade union, the union can reduce its wage demands. Lower wages, ceteris paribus, raise profits, while the increase in employment enhances the payoff of a wage-setting trade union. Therefore, both the firm and the trade union can be better off in the presence of a collectively bargained CSR-objective than in its absence. Accordingly, establishing a CSR-objective can give rise to a Pareto-improvement and can mitigate the inefficiency resulting from collective wage negotiations. |
| Keywords: | : Collective Bargaining, Corporate Social Responsibility, Employment, Pareto-Improvement, Trade Union, Wages |
| JEL: | D60 J51 M14 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:202401&r=eur |
| By: | Sastry, Parinitha; Verner, Emil; Marqués-Ibáñez, David |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of voluntary climate commitments by banks on their lending activity. We use administrative data on the universe of bank lending from 19 European countries. There is strong selection into commitments, with increased participation by the largest banks and banks with the most pre-existing exposure to high-polluting industries. Setting a commitment leads to a boost in a lender’s ESG rating. Lenders reduce credit in sectors they have targeted as high priority for decarbonization. However, climate-aligned banks do not change their lending or loan pricing differentially compared to banks without climate commitments, suggesting they are not actively divesting. We can reject that climate-aligned lenders divest from firms in targeted sectors by more than 2.6%. Firm borrowers are no more likely to set climate targets after their lender sets a climate target, which casts doubt on active engagement by lenders. These results call into question the efficacy of voluntary commitments. JEL Classification: Q50, G21 |
| Keywords: | banks, green lending, voluntary targets |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242921&r=eur |
| By: | Romain Pierronnet (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Aude Deville (GRM - Groupe de Recherche en Management - EA 4711 - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - IAE Toulon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Toulon - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Olivier Meier (UPE - Université Paris-Est, FNEGE - Fondation Nationale pour l'Enseignement de la Gestion des Entreprises); Jean-Philippe Denis (Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Keywords: | recherche, management, université, transition, ouvrage, news tank |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04513757&r=eur |
| By: | Matteo Bonato (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa; IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France.); Oguzhan Cepni (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark; Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We compare the contribution of various popular economic policy uncertainty (EPU) measures with that of widely-studied realized moments (realized leverage, realized skewness, realized kurtosis, realized good and bad volatilities, realized jumps, and realized up and down tail risks) to the performance of out-of-sample forecasts of stock market volatility of the United States (US) over the sample period from 2011 to 2023. To this end, we construct optimal forecasting models by combining the popular heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) model with optimal stepwise predictor selection algorithms and shrinkage estimators (lasso, elastic net, and ridge regression), where we control for macroeconomic factors and sentiment as well. We find that realized moments improve out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to the baseline HAR-RV model. EPU measures do not add to forecasting performance beyond realized moments, and even deteriorate forecasting performance as the length of the forecast horizon increases. The punchline is that realized moments rather than EPU measures matter for forecasting stock market volatility. |
| Keywords: | Stock market, Volatility, Forecasting, Moments, Economic policy uncertainty |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G10 G17 D80 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202408&r=eur |
| By: | Choi, Jae Hee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 중국 전기차 배터리 시장의 현황과 중국산 배터리의 글로벌 경쟁력에 대해 살펴보고, 중국기업의 유형별 해외 진출 사례와 특징을 분석했다. 또한 중국의 대표 전기차 배터리 기업을 선정하여 해당 기업의 해외 사업 전략과 경쟁력을 파악하고, 우리 정부와 기업이 활용할 수 있는 종합적인 대응방안을 고찰했다. Chinese EV battery companies, which dominate the Chinese domestic market, are recently entering global market in earnest. The demand for Chinese batteries is also rising as the demand for batteries increases due to the rapid pace of EV conversion in major automobile markets such as Europe and the United States. As the global market share of Chinese companies rises rapidly, the market share of Korean battery companies, which previously dominated the global battery market, is falling. As competition between Korea and China is expected to intensify in the global market in the future, it can be said that identifying the types and characteristics of Chinese companies’ global expansion and analyzing the strategies and competitiveness of major companies is essential to enhancing and maintaining the global competitiveness of the Korean battery industry. Accordingly, this study aims to examine the current status of the Chinese market and the global competitiveness of Chinese batteries, and to understand the characteristics of each type of global expansion of Chinese companies. In addition, I selected China’s leading EV battery companies to analyze their strategies and competitiveness, and consider comprehensive countermeasures that the Korean government and companies can utilize. In Chapter 2, to examine the development of the Chinese EV battery industry, I examines the Chinese market in terms of supply and demand, and identified the recent oversupply phenomenon that has emerged in the Chinese market. I also compared the level of competitiveness of the Chinese battery industry with that of Korea. First of all, in terms of demand, China is already the world’s largest EV battery market, and battery demand is expected to grow continuously until 2025, reaching more than 1TWh. In the Chinese EV battery market, the demand for LFP batteries compared to ternary batteries is increasing rapidly, and LFP batteries are used in 67% of Chinese EVs in 2023. On the supply side, CATL secures a majority of the market share in the ternary battery sector, and BYD and CATL occupy more than 70% of the market in the LFP battery sector. In addition, as the production capacity of batteries in China increases rapidly, the oversupply phenomenon in the Chinese market is intensifying. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Economic security; energy industry; China; battery; electric vehicle battery; secondary battery; supply chain |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:2023_012&r=eur |
| By: | Steinhoff, Brigitte |
| Abstract: | The article outlines the critical situation of affordable housing in Germany, highlighting the government's goal to create 400, 000 new flats annually to address dwelling shortages. Despite this target, the actual construction completions in 2022 were only 295, 300, with projections indicating a decline to 175, 000 by 2025. This shortfall is attributed to rising construction costs, land prices, and interest rates, making it financially unviable for investors to offer affordable rents. The lack of affordable housing is primarily a distribution issue, with high demand in cities and conurbations leading to a cost spiral and financial burdens for low- and middle-income households. To combat this, federal and state governments have introduced subsidy programmes aimed at increasing affordable housing. However, investments in publicly subsidised housing are not seen as attractive due to economic viability concerns and psychological barriers, including prejudices and misinformation among potential investors. Moreover, there are community concerns regarding the development of affordable housing, often referred to as the "not-in-my-backyard" (NIMBY) syndrome. These concerns revolve around the fear of negative impacts on communities, such as the loss of green spaces, increased traffic, and potential social issues like crime and poverty. Despite these challenges, the article emphasizes the importance of affordable housing as a corrective measure in the housing market and the need for public awareness and debate on this issue. |
| Keywords: | Affordable housing, framing the issue of affordable housing, not-in-my- backyard, social acceptability, policy programmes in Germany |
| JEL: | M14 M38 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120455&r=eur |
| By: | Cavallaro, Eleonora (University of Rome, Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law); Villani, Ilaria (Banking Supervision, European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an index to benchmark EU financial systems against their potential to enhance resilient growth and international risk sharing. It finds that the risk sharing mechanism is more effective in more stable financial environments, whereas a larger fraction of shocks remains unsmoothed in the lower financial clusters, especially in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when the credit channel is significantly downsized. |
| Keywords: | financial structure, financial heterogeneity, growth, volatility, risk sharing |
| JEL: | F15 F36 O16 E44 G1 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2024/21&r=eur |
| By: | Maxime Menuet (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper focus on civil conflicts arising from natural resource appropriation in a growth model with rent-seeking behavior and how fiscal policy can mitigate them. Such conflicts, if destructive, make the development trajectory indeterminate. There are two self-fulfilling equilibria, including a poverty-conflict trap associated with large civil conflicts. The resource curse may emerge because of pessimistic household expectations. However, fiscal policy can help overcome the tradeoff between conflict and economic development and partially solve the conflict-based resource curse. In this regard, there is an appropriate sharing of the government budget between military spending and human capital investment that minimizes conflict incentives. |
| Keywords: | natural resource, civil conflict, economic growth, rent-seeking |
| JEL: | O41 Q20 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2024-05&r=eur |