|
on Microeconomic European Issues |
|
Issue of 2018‒08‒13
27 papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Bellmann, Lisa (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Brixy, Udo (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "Young firms find it difficult to attract (skilled) workers. Using linked employer-employee data for Germany we investigate how local labor market conditions affect the hiring success of young firms. In a first step, we estimate the probability of the founder becoming an employer. In a second step we analyze how local conditions influence the probability of hiring skilled human capital. The results indicate a positive relationship between the local unemployment level and the hiring probability of young firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Personaleinstellung, Unternehmensgründung, regionaler Arbeitsmarkt, Personalbedarf, IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatz, Arbeitslosenquote |
| JEL: | D22 L26 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201818&r=eur |
| By: | Dan Andrews; Giuseppe Nicoletti; Christina Timiliotis |
| Abstract: | Insufficient diffusion of new technologies has been quoted as one possible reason for weak productivity performance over the past two decades (Andrews et al., 2016). This paper uses a novel data set of digital technology usage covering 25 industries in 25 European countries over the 2010-16 period to explore the drivers of digital adoption across two broad sets of digital technologies by firms, cloud computing and back or front office integration. The focus is on structural and policy factors affecting firms’ capabilities and incentives to adopt -- including the availability of enabling infrastructures (such as high-speed broadband internet), managerial quality and workers skills, and product, labour and financial market settings. We identify the effects of structural and policy factors based on the difference-in-difference approach pioneered by Rajan and Zingales (1998) and show that a number of these factors are statistically and economically significant for technology adoption. Specifically, we find strong support for the hypothesis that low managerial quality, lack of ICT skills and poor matching of workers to jobs curb digital technology adoption and hence the rate of diffusion. Similarly our evidence suggests that policies affecting market incentives are important for adoption, especially those relevant for market access, competition and efficient reallocation of labour and capital. Finally, we show that there are important complementarities between the two sets of factors, with market incentives reinforcing the positive effects of enhancements in firm capabilities on adoption of digital technologies |
| Keywords: | diffusion, digital skills, Digital technologies, productivity |
| JEL: | D24 J24 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1476-en&r=eur |
| By: | Hyejin Ku (University College London, Department of Economics and CReAM); Uta Schönberg (University College London, Department of Economics, CReAM, and Institute for Employment Research (IAB)); Ragnhild C. Schreiner (University College London, Department of Economics, CReAM, and Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate the effects of payroll tax changes on firm behavior, by exploiting a unique policy setting in Norway, where a system of geographically differentiated payroll taxes was suddenly abolished due to an EU regulation. We find that firms are only partially able to shift the increased costs from higher payroll tax rates onto workers’ wages. Instead, firms respond to the tax increase primarily by reducing employment. The drop in employment following the tax reform is particularly pronounced in labor intensive firms—which experience a larger windfall loss due to the tax reform than non-labor intensive firms—and in multi-establishment firms—which respond to the payroll tax increase in part by reducing the number of establishments per firm. Overall, our findings point to liquidity effects whereby a sudden and largely unexpected payroll tax increase aggravates firms’ liquidity constraints, forcing them to cut employment to bring down costs. |
| Keywords: | Payroll taxes, regional tax incentive, firm behavior, labor demand |
| JEL: | D22 H25 H32 J18 J23 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1811&r=eur |
| By: | John Muellbauer |
| Abstract: | In housing affordability levels and volatility, there could hardly be a greater contrast than between the UK and Germany. Differences in history, institutions and policies are explored in this paper. Residential housing supply has been far more expansionary in Germany and mortgage credit more tightly regulated. A sensibly regulated rental market and stable German house prices have combined to leave the rental sector with over half of tenures. Policy failures in the UK have resulted in widening intergenerational inequality, increased social exclusion, adversely affected productivity and growth and raised the risk of financial instability. Policy lessons are drawn for the UK, which go far beyond the remit of the immediately responsible Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. |
| Keywords: | Housing markets in the UK and Germany; housing affordability; property taxation; land value tax; land-use regulations; rent regulation; mortgage markets; house price volatility; residential mobility |
| JEL: | R31 R21 H20 H24 G21 R38 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:855&r=eur |
| By: | Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Strulik, Holger |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the season of birth affects human health and aging. For this purpose, we use five waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset and construct a health deficit index for 21 European countries. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men age faster when they were born in spring and summer (compared to autumn). At given age, they have developed about 3.5 percent more health deficits. The bulk of the season effect is neither mediated through body height nor through education. In a subsample of Southern European countries, where the seasonal variation of sunlight is smaller, the season of birth plays an insignificant role for health in old age. In a subsample of Northern countries, in contrast, the season or birth effect gets larger. At given age, elderly Northern European men born in spring have developed on average 8.7 percent more health deficits than those born in autumn. In non-linear regression we find that the season effect increases with age suggesting that the speed of aging is also influenced by the season of birth. |
| Keywords: | health,aging,health deficit index,season of birth |
| JEL: | I10 I19 J13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:352&r=eur |
| By: | Riccardo Pozzi (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo); Rosalba Rombaldoni (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo); Edgard Sanchez Carrera (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | European Union defines economic and social cohesion as one of the main priorities, however some theoretical and empirical evidence of regional inequalities in Europe, indicates that a process of convergence has been taking place between countries but not within regions inside countries. The first aim of the paper is that of giving an assessment of the existing spatial inequalities and of their recent evolution in the last 15 years for regions of 22 EU members. Our empirical evidence confirms wider disparities at regional level than at country level,and a growing disconnection between the geography of production, that becomes more unequal, and the geography of incomes (so that we might have regional convergence but not regional cohesion). Alsoin the case of Italy this seems to be proved. The second objective of the present work is twofold: on the one hand it investigates how the process of spatial economic concentration is affecting growth and disparities among European regions. On the other hand, the paper takes the opportunity to verify the impact of spatial inequalities to social inequalities. Our results suggest that interpersonal inequalities are affected by spatial disparities and agglomeration of economic activity has a defined role in this process. Other determinants, such as social expenditure and the level of wealth,mitigate but do not cancelthe effect of spatial inequalities.Moreover, the positive relationship between growth of regional disparities and GDP could suggest a possible trade-off between spatial equity and growth with the implication that on policy ground EU has to make a choice whether reversing or not the process of economic concentration. In addition to this the recent changes in inter-regional inequalitiesadvices a reconsideration of the usual framework underlying policy,especially the people-versus-place division in policy formulation. |
| Keywords: | dynamic panel, economic geography, European Union, regional inequality, spatial agglomeration |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:18_05&r=eur |
| By: | Alison Cathles; Dongshu Ou; Simone Sasso; Mary Setrana; Tom van Veen |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes numeracy and literacy skills of migrants, using PISA and PIAAC data from twelve OECD countries. Our results first show some convergence of the skills gap between the second generation immigrants and the natives over time. Second, the gap in literacy skills among the first-generation and natives and among first-generation and second-generation immigrants has increased over time. Third, demographics and family background contribute to the achievement gaps between different groups. Fourth, school input variables do contribute to skills gaps of young adults with different immigrant backgrounds. Fifth, an immigrant background does not appear to affect the chances of studying in a STEM field. |
| JEL: | I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7157&r=eur |
| By: | Blömer, Maximilian J.; Guertzgen, Nicole; Pohlan, Laura; Stichnoth, Holger; van den Berg, Gerard J. |
| Abstract: | We structurally estimate an equilibrium search model using German administrative data and use this for counterfactual analyses of a uniform minimum wage. The model with worker and firm heterogeneity does not restrict the sign of employment effects a priori and allows for different job offer arrival rates for the employed and the unemployed. We find that unemployment is a non-monotonic function of the minimum wage level. Effects differ strongly by labour market segment. Cross-segment variation of the estimated effects is mostly driven by firm productivity levels rather than by search frictions or the opportunity cost of employment. |
| Keywords: | wages,job durations,work,employment,productivity,structural estimation |
| JEL: | J31 J51 J64 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:18032&r=eur |
| By: | Julia Bachtrögler; Christoph Hammer |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a new database that is unique in its scale and scope containing detailed information on over two million projects carried out by one million firms that benefited from the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund and the Cohesion Fund in 25 EU member countries during the multi-annual financial framework 2007-2013. This database is used to get a better understanding of the characteristics of the beneficiaries of European funds and to assess the impact of the European funds on the beneficiaries’ performance in terms of employment growth, growth in fixed assets, and total factor productivity. While the data reveals substantial heterogeneity of beneficiaries and projects across and within countries, in terms of the number of projects, their total values, the average firm size and other aspects, some patterns are identified. The majority of co-funding goes to manufacturing firms as well as public institutions. The Cohesion Fund co-finances larger projects, carried out by larger, more capital-intensive firms that typically conduct large-scale infrastructure projects. In contrast, the European Social Fund co-finances smaller projects related to human capital and initiatives on the labour market. In terms of volume, the European Regional and Development Fund has the largest budget in total and co-finances a large variety of projects. Using propensity score matching techniques, we find mixed effects of structural and cohesion funds on the performance of a sample of manufacturing firms in six European countries. On average, firms that receive financial assistance hire more workers and increase their capital stock more. However, there is little evidence of additional positive total factor productivity effects for the beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | Cohesion Policy, European Union, Firm-level data, Propensity Score Matching, Treatment Effects |
| JEL: | C21 D22 E61 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2018–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1499-en&r=eur |
| By: | Cabrales, Antonio; Güell, Maia; Madera, Rocío; Viola, Analía |
| Abstract: | In Europe, the need for additional funding coming from either budget cuts and/or increased costs due to increased competition has reopened the debate on the financing of university systems. An attractive alternative to the current general-tax financed subsidies are Income Contingent Loans (ICL), a flexible scheme that puts more weight on private resources while enhancing progressivity. One challenge of the viability of ICL systems is the functioning of the labor market for university graduates. This paper offers a general analysis of the economics of ICL, followed by an application to Spain. We set up a loan laboratory in which we can explore the distributional effects of different loan systems to finance tertiary education at current costs as well as to increase university funding to improve in its quality. We use simulated lifetime earnings of graduates matching the dynamics of employment and earnings in the Spanish administrative social security data to calculate the burden of introducing ICL for individuals at different points of the earnings distribution and for the government. We find that (1) our proposed structure is highly progressive under all specifications, with the top quarter of the distribution paying close to the full amount of the tuition and the bottom 10% paying almost no tuition; and (2) the share of total university education subsidized by the government is between 16 and 56 percentage points less than under the current system. |
| Keywords: | Income contingent loans; progressivity; university quality |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13038&r=eur |
| By: | Cecile Gaubert; Oleg Itskhoki |
| Abstract: | Large firms play a pivotal role in international trade, shaping the export patterns of countries. We propose and quantify a granular multi-sector model of trade, which combines fundamental comparative advantage across sectors with granular comparative advantage embodied in outstanding individual firms. We develop an SMM-based estimation procedure, which takes full account of the general equilibrium of the model, to jointly estimate these fundamental and granular forces using French micro-data with information on firm domestic and export sales across manufacturing industries. We find that granularity accounts for about 20% of the variation in realized export intensity across sectors, and is more pronounced in the most export-intensive sectors. In turn, idiosyncratic firm dynamics accounts for a large share of the evolution of a country's comparative advantage over time. Governments face strong incentives to target trade policy at large individual foreign exporters, and to use lenient antitrust regulation at home to substitute for beggar-thy-neighbor trade policy. |
| JEL: | D20 D43 F10 F40 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24807&r=eur |
| By: | Carrino, Ludovico; Glaser, Karen; Avendano, Mauricio |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the health impact of UK pension reforms that increased women’s State Pension age for up to six years since 2010. Exploiting an 11% increase in employment caused by the reforms, we show that rising the State Pension age reduces physical and mental health among women from routine-manual occupations. We show robust evidence that a larger increase in the State Pension age leads to larger negative health effects, resulting in a widening gap in health between women from different occupations. Our results are consistent with a 27% fall in individual incomes for women in routine-manual occupations. |
| Keywords: | Social Security, Public Pensions, Economics of ageing, Public Health; Understanding Society |
| JEL: | H75 I14 I18 J26 |
| Date: | 2018–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87575&r=eur |
| By: | Artmann, Elisabeth; Ketel, Nadine; Oosterbeek, Hessel; van der Klaauw, Bas |
| Abstract: | This paper uses administrative data from 16 cohorts of the Dutch population to study the relationship between field of study and family outcomes. We first document considerable variation by field of study for a range of family outcomes. To get to causal effects, we use admission lotteries that were conducted in the Netherlands to allocate seats for four substantially oversubscribed studies. We find that field of study matters for partner choice, which for women also implies an effect on partners' earnings. Fertility of women is not affected and evidence for men is mixed, but we find evidence for intergenerational effects on children's education. This means that field of study does not only affect individual labor market outcomes but also causally influences other important dimensions of a person's life. |
| Keywords: | assortative matching; Higher education; intergenerational mobility; Returns to education; study choice |
| JEL: | J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13033&r=eur |
| By: | Akay, Alpaslan (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Brausmann, Alexandra (Center of Economic Research, ETH); Djajic, Slobodan (The Graduate Institute); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogaziçi University, Department of Economics, Natuk Birkan Binasi) |
| Abstract: | How does saving behavior of immigrants respond to changes in purchasing power parity between the source and host countries? We examine this question by building a theoretical model of joint return-migration and saving decisions of temporary migrants and then test its implications by using data from the German Socioeconomic Panel on immigrants from 92 source countries. As implied by our theoretical model, we find that the saving rate increases in the nominal exchange rate but decreases in the source-country price level and that the absolute magnitude of both relationships increases as the time to retirement becomes shorter. At the median level of years to retirement, the absolute values of the elasticity of savings with respect to the nominal exchange rate and with respect to the source-country price level are both close to unity. Moreover, as we gradually restrict the sample to individuals with stronger return intentions, the estimated magnitudes become larger and their statistical significance higher. |
| Keywords: | Migrants Savings; Return Migration; Exchange Rates; Prices; PPP |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0735&r=eur |
| By: | Benassi, Chiara; Dorigatti, Lisa; Pannini, Elisa |
| Abstract: | Under what conditions can unions successfully regulate precarious employment? We compare the divergent trajectories of collective bargaining on agency work in the Italian and German metal sectors from the late 1990s. We explain the differences by the interaction between trade unions’ institutional and associational power resources, mediated by employers’ divide-and-rule strategies and by union strategies to (re)build a unitary front. In both countries, the liberalization of agency work allowed employers to exploit labour divides, undermining unions’ associational power and preventing labour from negotiating effectively. However, while Italian unions remained ‘trapped’ in the vicious circle between weak legislation and fragmented labour, German unions were able to overcome their internal divides. The different degree of success depended on the nature of the divides within the labour movements. |
| Keywords: | Agency workers; Germany; Italy; metal sector; power resources; precarious employment; unions |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2018–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:89371&r=eur |
| By: | Bahar Öztürk; Dorinth van Dijk; Frank van Hoenselaar; Sander Burgers |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of supply constraints on the dynamics of house prices in the Netherlands. In particular, we look at whether income shocks lead to stronger house price increases in regions characterized with higher supply constraints. We use a panel dataset that contains 316 municipalities over the years 1987-2016. Municipalities are divided in three equally sized groups according to the extent of supply constraints present in each municipality. Our results suggest that income shocks lead to significantly larger increases in house prices in municipalities that are relatively more supply constrained. This holds both in the short- and the long-term. The degree of mean reversion and persistence, however, do not seem to significantly differ between the three groups of municipalities. |
| Keywords: | house prices, income shocks, supply constraints |
| JEL: | G12 R31 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:601&r=eur |
| By: | Alabrese, Eleonora (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Becker, Sascha O. (Department of Economics,and CAGE (Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy), University of Warwick, CEPR,CESifo, ifo,IZA and ROA); Fetzer, Thiemo (Department of Economics, University of Warwick & SERC); Novy, Dennis (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CEPR, CESifo and CEP/LSE) |
| Abstract: | Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data.The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK’s largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity,low educational attainment, infrequent use of smart phones and the internet,receiving benefits, adverse health and low lifesatisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas.We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions,with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socioeconomic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave |
| Keywords: | Aggregation ; Ecological Fallacy ; European Union ; Populism ; Referendum ; UK JEL Classification: D72 ;I10 ;N44 ;R20 ;Z13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:384&r=eur |
| By: | Aniko Biro (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Peter Elek (Department of Economics, Eörvös Loránd University (ELTE), Budapest, Hungary) |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Hungary, we analyse the effect of general practitioner (GP) care availability on the consumption of antibiotics. We exploit the geographical and time variation in unfilled GP positions as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of primary care. According to our estimates from fixed effects panel regressions, if the single GP position of a village becomes unfilled, the days of therapy (DOT) as well as public expenditures on antibiotics decrease by 3.2-4.1%. The negative effect on antibiotic consumption is stronger in smaller settlements, in settlements where secondary care is less available, and where antibiotics were previously overprescribed. The quality of prescribing behaviour measured by the ratio of narrow-spectrum to broad-spectrum antibiotics deteriorates significantly as a consequence of worse primary care availability. The number of GP consultations decreases by 9.8%, but prescribed antibiotic DOT per GP visit goes up by 7.2%. |
| Keywords: | Administrative panel data, Antibiotics, Primary care availability, Quality of antibiotic prescription, Unfilled general practices |
| JEL: | C23 I10 I11 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:1810&r=eur |
| By: | Gravelle, H; Liu, D; Propper, C; Santos, R |
| Abstract: | We examine whether family doctor firms in England respond to local competition by increasing their quality. We measure quality in terms of clinical performance and patient-reported satisfaction to capture its multi-dimensional nature. We use a panel covering 8 years for over 8000 English general practices, allowing us to control for unobserved local area effects. We measure competition by the number of rival doctors within a small distance. We find that increases in local competition are associated with increases in clinical quality and patient satisfaction, particularly for firms with lower quality. However, the magnitude of the effect is small. |
| Date: | 2018–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imp:wpaper:60680&r=eur |
| By: | Giovanni Marin (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna); Francesco Vona (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | The political acceptability of climate policies is undermined by job-killing arguments, especially for the least-skilled workers. However, evidence for distributional impacts for different workers remains scant. We examine the associations between climate policies, proxied by energy prices and a stringency index, and workforce skills for 14 European countries and 15 industrial sectors over the period of 1995-2011. We find that, while the long-term decline in employment in most carbon-intensive sectors is unrelated to policy stringency, climate policies have been skill biased against manual workers and have favoured technicians and professionals. This skill bias is confirmed using a shift-share instrumental variable estimator |
| Keywords: | Climate policies; Workforce skills; Cluster analysis; Multiple exposure to structural shocks |
| JEL: | J24 Q52 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5ahh4t5kfl8nprei89ignlk5nl&r=eur |
| By: | Elise Coudin (CREST; INSEE); Sophie Maillard (INSEE); Maxime Tô (Institut des Politiques Publiques; University College London; Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how two main channels explaining the gender wage gap, namely the heterogeneity of firm pay policies and sex-specific wage consequences of parenthood, interact. We explore the firm heterogeneity channel by applying the model proposed by Card, Cardoso, and Kline 2016. After controlling for individual and firm heterogeneity, we show that the sorting of women into lower-paying firms accounts for 11 % of the average gender wage gap in the French private sector, whereas within-firm gender inequality does not contribute to the gap. Performing these decompositions all along workers’ life cycle, we find evidence that this sorting mechanism activates shortly after birth. These gender-specific and dynamic firm choices generate wage losses all along mothers’ careers, in addition to direct child wage penalties. After birth, mothers tend to favor firms with more flexible work hours and home proximity, which may be detrimental to their labor market opportunities, as, within these contexts, firms may gain relative monopsonic power. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, gender inequalities, linked employer-employee, data, two-way fixed effect models, discrimination |
| JEL: | J31 J71 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2018-09&r=eur |
| By: | Filippo Elba; Fiammetta Cosci; Anna Pettini; Federico M. Stefanini |
| Abstract: | The 2016 report of the European Transport Safety Council claims that EU safety progress has come to a standstill. This study aims at deepening the knowledge of factors that influence adolescents’ risky behavior on the road. Bayesian Networks offer a promising new way to looking at the issue. In the analysis of a dataset collected in Tuscany, Italy, called EDIT, we found evidence that the use of alcohol and illegal substances explain only part of the probability of having an accident, and that other observable variables, like the level of distress or the type of school attended are significantly related to the probability of incurring in a road crash. New and close attention should be given to a systemic approach and to a plethora of environmental and individual variables that may rise the probability of road accidents for very young drivers. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Networks, structural learning, road accidents, distress factors, risky behavior, adolescence, youth, novice drivers |
| JEL: | C11 D91 I11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7144&r=eur |
| By: | Riccardo Cappelli; Fabio Montobbio; Andrea Morrison |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of the 2008 crisis to study the relationship between economic and technological resilience in 248 European Union regions. For economic resilience we measure the difference between the level of unemployment rate before crisis and the level of unemployment rate at its peak after the crisis - i.e., the unemployment resistance. Using European Patent Office patents, we look at all technological crises in each region since 1978 and build a variable of technological resilience measuring the historical ability of a region to maintain its level of knowledge creation in face of adverse shocks - i.e., the technological resistance. We find that technological resistance is a good predictor of economic resistance. In particular, our results show that (1) important interaction effects exist between technological resistance and human capital, (2) technological resistance and the level of human capital are less effective in protecting female and elder adult workers in an economic crisis and (3) important country level effects are present. |
| Keywords: | Economic resilience, technological resilience, unemployment, recession, human capital |
| JEL: | R11 J64 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1831&r=eur |
| By: | Davillas, Apostolos; Pudney, Stephen |
| Abstract: | Some social surveys now collect physical measurements and markers derived from biological samples, in addition to self-reported health assessments. This information is expensive to collect; its value in medical epidemiology has been clearly established, but its potential contribution to social science research is less certain. We focused on disability, which results from biological processes but is defined in terms of its implications for social functioning and wellbeing. Using data from waves 2 and 3 of the UK Understanding Society panel survey as our baseline, we estimated predictive models for disability 2-4 years ahead, using a wide range of biomarkers in addition to self-assessed health (SAH) and other socio-economic covariates. We found a quantitatively and statistically significant predictive role for a large set of nurse-collected and blood-based biomarkers, over and above the strong predictive power of self-assessed health. We also applied a latent variable model accounting for the longitudinal nature of observed disability outcomes and measurement error in in SAH and biomarkers. Although SAH performed well as a summary measure, it has shortcomings as a leading indicator of disability, since we found it to be biased in the sense of over- or under-sensitivity to certain biological pathways. |
| Date: | 2018–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2018-11&r=eur |
| By: | Daniel Dietz (University of Wuerzburg); Thomas Zwick (University of Wuerzburg and ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of the economic crisis in 2008 and 2009 on individual training activities of different employee groups within establishments. We use a unique German linked employer–employee panel data set with detailed information on individual training history (WeLL-ADIAB). The so-called Great Recession can be seen as an exogenous, unexpected, and time-limited shock. Therefore, our quasi-experimental setting using Diff-in-Diff analyses reveals the causal impact of the crisis on the training participation and the number of training measures. We find a direct negative effect of the crisis on individual training activities in 2009 and 2010. The negative effect therefore sets in with a time lag and lasts until after the recession. Furthermore, the recession effect is stronger for employees in unskilled jobs than for employees in skilled jobs. |
| Keywords: | Training, Financial Crisis, Linked Employer Employee Data Set |
| JEL: | M53 O16 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0155&r=eur |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick |
| Abstract: | Using a data set that contains information on retrospective school-age bullying, as well as on workplace bullying in the respondents’ present job, the outcomes of this study suggest that bullying, when it is experienced by sexual orientation minorities tends to persist over time. According to the estimations, it seems that school-age bullying of LGB people is associated with victims’ lower educational level and occupational sorting into non-white-collar jobs, especially for gay/bisexual men. In addition, the outputs suggest that for both gay/bisexual men and lesbian/bisexual women, school-age bullying is positively associated with workplace bullying and negatively associated with job satisfaction. Additional results suggest a negative association between workplace bullying and job satisfaction. However, the outcomes show a positive association between the existence of an LGBT group in the workplace and job satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | School-age bullying,workplace bullying,job satisfaction,sexual orientation |
| JEL: | J16 J28 J70 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:237&r=eur |
| By: | Marco G. Nieddu (Università di Cagliari e CRENoS); Lorenzo Pandolfi (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how promotion incentives affect the productivity of high-skilled public employees. In a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we exploit the three bibliometric thresholds of the 2012 National Scientific Qualification (NSQ), the centralized evaluation procedure awarding the eligibility for career advancements in Italian universities. Specifically, we compare the 2013-2016 research productivity of assistant professors who barely achieve the qualification for associate professor with the productivity of candidates who barely miss it. The former have the incentive to enrich their publication records in order to meet the higher requirements for the full professor qualification by the following round of the NSQ. Conversely, the latter first need to re-apply for the associate professor qualification, thus facing lower promotion thresholds. We find that barely qualified scholars publish significantly more papers – and in journals of comparable quality – than their unsuccessful colleagues. The relationship between the increase in publications and the distance from the expected thresholds for the full professor qualification is inverted-U shaped: promotion incentives are mostly effective when the promotion threshold is neither too difficult nor too easy to meet. Our results emphasize the importance of promotion incentives as an effective tool for public management to enhance the productivity of state personnel. They also provide novel evidence on the responsiveness of scholars to publication-based hiring and promotion schemes. |
| Keywords: | promotion incentives; public sector; academia; Italy; scientific productivity. |
| JEL: | I23 J45 M51 O31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:507&r=eur |