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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Nolan H. Miller; David Molitor; Eric Zou |
| Abstract: | We estimate how acute air pollution exposure from wildfire smoke impacts human health in the U.S., allowing for nonlinear effects. Wildfire smoke is pervasive and produces air quality shocks of varying intensity, depending on wind patterns and plume thickness. Using administrative Medicare records for 2007–2019, we estimate that wildfire smoke accounts for 18% of ambient PM2.5 concentrations, 0.42% of deaths, and 0.69% of emergency room visits among adults aged 65 and over. Smaller pollution shocks have outsized health impacts, indicating significant health benefits from improving air quality, even in areas meeting current regulatory standards. |
| JEL: | I18 J14 Q51 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32924 |
| By: | Anwar Gasim; Walid Matar; Abdelrahman Muhsen (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Measuring and monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are crucial to address climate change and fulfill Paris Agreement objectives. This paper explores the potential of satellite technology in measuring and tracking CH4, CO2, and N2O emissions in Saudi Arabia, collaborating with environmental intelligence company Kayrros. The satellite estimates reveal significant disparities with other data providers, particularly in the oil and gas sector. The paper advocates for a combination of bottom-up and satellite methods to enhance comprehensiveness, transparency, accuracy, and timeliness in emission measurements. The study provides policy recommendations for Saudi Arabia, demonstrating how satellite technology can detect super-emitting events and offering solutions for regulatory action. Finally, it discusses limitations and calls for further investment in satellite technology to refine GHG emission estimates for better global climate action. |
| Keywords: | Air conditioning, Applied general model, Article 6, Blockchain |
| Date: | 2023–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2023-dp29 |
| By: | Carroll, Carlos; Noon, Barry; Masino, Susan; Noss, Reed F. |
| Abstract: | Effective conservation of old-growth ecosystems, along with their unique biodiversity and climate benefits, requires coordinated actions from the scale of individual trees to broad regions. The US government is currently developing a conservation strategy for old-growth forest on federal lands, and similar efforts are occurring globally as nations implement the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. An effective strategy must include elements at three spatiotemporal scales: immediate restrictions on harvest of old-growth and mature forests and old trees, standards to ensure management activities do not degrade old growth at the stand scale, and longer-term planning for old-growth restoration and recruitment across landscapes. Lessons from previous US forest policy, especially the Northwest Forest Plan, can inform efforts to strengthen each of these three components in the US old-growth conservation strategy. Ecosystem-based standards are needed to ensure protection of sufficient mature forest so that recruitment into the old-growth stage shifts ecosystems closer to historic proportions of old growth. In addition to clarifying existing goals related to ecological integrity, comprehensive old-growth policy must incorporate specific goals for recovering at-risk species based on empirical relationships across scales of biodiversity between forest habitat and species viability that are relevant across varied ecological contexts. Reversing extinction debt and ensuring long-term adaptation potential requires designation of large landscapes anchored by remaining old-growth stands, surrounded by areas managed for restoration of ecological integrity, native biodiversity, and ecosystem services including climate change mitigation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:c7fek |
| By: | Giovanni Bernardo; Pasquale Commendatore; Giovanni Fosco |
| Abstract: | People move for various reasons, including economic, social, political, demographic, and environmental factors. Environmental quality, in particular, plays a crucial role in migration decisions. This study examines the relationship between air pollution (measured as the maximum number of days in which at least one monitoring station detects an excess of 50 µg/m3 of PM10 above the established limit) and internal migration in Italy. Employing a difference-in-differences (diff-in-diff) strategy, our analysis reveals a negative relationship between air pollution and internal migration. We exploit two major legislative interventions in environmental regulation — LD 152/2006 and LD 155/2010 — as exogenous shocks affecting air pollution. We find that these environmental regulations significantly reduced the number of pollution exceeding days in municipal areas, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of those areas more committed to reducing urban emissions. Specifically, the combined effect of the two decrees led to an increase of approximately three new citizens per 1, 000 inhabitants in the more committed areas, highlighting the importance of proactive environmental policies in influencing migration patterns and improving urban livability. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Migration, Environmental policy |
| JEL: | O15 Q53 Q56 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/312 |
| By: | Antoine Ebeling |
| Abstract: | This paper study the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) climate related speeches on European stock markets. Using the database of 2594 speeches between 1997 and 2022 of the European Central Bank, we employ advanced textual analysis techniques, including keyword identification and topic modeling, to isolate speeches related to climate change. We then conduct an event study to estimate the differences in abnormal returns of a large panel of listed companies in response to the European Central Bank’s speeches on climate change. Our analysis reveals that the ECB’s communication on climate issues has intensified significantly since 2015. Using topic modelling methods, we classify climate speeches into two main themes: (i) green finance and economic policies, and (ii) climate-related risks The event study shows that financial markets tend to reallocate portfolios towards greener ones in the days following the ECB’s climate speeches. Our results show that following a climatic speech by the ECB, green financial markets are benefiting from positive abnormal returns by around 1 percentage point. More specifically, we find that climate speeches dealing with green monetary policy and other economic policy instruments have a larger effect on green stock prices than speeches dealing with different types of climate risk. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication ; Climate change ; Event Study ; Textual Analysis. |
| JEL: | E52 G14 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-38 |
| By: | Clasen, Thomas F.; Pillarisetti, Ajay; Gill-Wiehl, Annelise Marie; Kwong, Layla; Daouda, Misbath; Kammen, Daniel M. |
| Abstract: | The use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a World Health Organization (WHO)-designated “clean” fuel, dominates household fuel expansion in low- and middle-income countries. This is due largely to support by the oil and gas industry, government policies, and claims of health and climate benefits over traditional biomass. However, recent randomized controlled trials, though confirming that switching from biomass to LPG cooking reduces exposure to air pollutants, have found little evidence of improved health outcomes. LPG offers reductions in greenhouse gas emissions compared to biomass, but its role as a by-product of fossil fuel production and its increasing use in the fossil fuel supply chain compromises the goal of universal access to sustainable energy. We propose a set of policies that the WHO, governments, funders, researchers, and non-governmental organizations can pursue to promote and assess alternative fuels as part of the continued effort to implement and ensure a clean, healthful, equitable, and sustainable energy future for all. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qu5bd |
| By: | Elías Albagli; Pablo García Silva; Gonzalo García-Trujillo; María Antonia Yung |
| Abstract: | This paper studies emigration pressures associated with climate change and sheds light on how they could evolve as climate degrades further. We start with a narrative approach focusing on four historical events. We document that severe climate disruption led to significant outward migration in the past, driven by social conflict, violence, and, in some cases, societal collapse. Then, we turn the analysis to the present. Using a regression panel approach for 154 countries between 1990 and 2020, we find a highly significant and nonlinear relationship between climate change and migration, with a U shape around a “temperature optimum.” The nonlinearity is stronger in poorer countries. Indeed, despite tropical climatic zones having experienced the smallest increase in temperature thus far, they exhibit the largest increase in outward migration due to their higher initial temperature and lower GDP per capita (limiting adaptation). Finally, we use the estimated model to project future migration under five IPCC scenarios and for a tipping point scenario (AMOC collapse). We find moderate effects on migration increase under moderate climate scenarios, but that migration would double for tropical areas in the most extreme scenario. In the AMOC collapse scenario, where regions close to the poles will freeze, we find much larger effects, with total outward migration being driven by cold and temperate climate countries. We conjecture that our results constitute a lower bound of the possible effects, given (i) the non-well-captured nonlinearities and (ii) the potential fall in income due to climate damages that limit adaptation. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1019 |
| By: | Jüppner, Marcus; Martin, Anika; Radke-Arden, Lucas |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency improvements are a key component on the road towards a carbonneutral economy. We identify the development of energy efficiency in the data and show that in recent decades it has increased at the aggregate level. At the sectoral level, however, the development in energy efficiency was highly heterogenous. We, then, analyse the effects of exogenous improvements in energy saving technology by means of Environmental Multi-Sector Model EMuSe. According to the model, sustained exogenous gains in energy saving technology increase output while, at the same time, reduce emissions energy use and energy intensity. Thereby, they attenuate the model-implied negative co-movement of output and emissions that results from the introduction or an intensified increase of an emission price schedule. However, if energy efficiency evolves as during the last decades and the emission price follows the currently intended schedule in the national and EU-wide emissions trading system, the model predicts that the emissions reduction by 2030 set by the German Federal Climate Change Act cannot be met. It additionally requires a higher emission price or larger (exogenous) energy efficiency gains. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:303049 |
| By: | Pauline Lam; Jeffrey Wurgler |
| Abstract: | Green finance emphasizes “additionality, ” meaning funded projects should offer distinct environmental benefits beyond standard practice. Analysis of U.S. corporate and municipal green bonds, however, indicates that the vast majority of green bond proceeds is used for refinancing ordinary debt, continuing ongoing projects, or initiating projects without green aspects that are novel for the issuer. Only 2% of corporate and municipal green bond proceeds initiate projects with clearly novel green features. Investors and market participants also do not distinguish among levels of additionality: Offering yields, announcement effects, green bond index inclusion, and green bond fund holdings are uncorrelated with additionality. |
| JEL: | G10 G32 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32960 |
| By: | Maximilian Fuchs; Johannes Stroebel; Julian Terstegge |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of carbon price uncertainty on firms' decisions to decarbonize their operations. We first use information on the pricing of options on emission allowances in the European Emissions Trading System to create the Carbon VIX, a market-based high-frequency measure of carbon price uncertainty. Carbon price uncertainty is high, varies substantially over time, and experiences persistent shocks around major climate policy events. To explore the effects of carbon price uncertainty on expected aggregate decarbonization investments, we analyze its effect on the stock returns of firms that help other businesses decarbonize. To identify these "carbon solution providers, " we extract common types of decarbonization investments from a large survey of firms, and then identify companies that offer the associated goods and services. We find that the stock returns of these carbon solution providers vary positively with carbon prices, but negatively with carbon price uncertainty. The effect of increases in carbon price uncertainty on our proxy for expected decarbonization investments is economically large and of similar magnitude as the effect of declines in carbon prices. These findings support predictions from real options theory that firms may delay investments in decarbonization when faced with uncertainty about the future costs of emissions. |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32937 |
| By: | Ms. Mitali Das; Manuel Linsenmeier; Gregor Schwerhoff |
| Abstract: | Climate policy at the subnational level is sometimes framed as being counterproductive, because climate change is considered a collective action problem that can be best addressed in a coalition that should be as large as possible. Using comprehensive data from US states on climate policy and policy outcomes, we show that state-level policy is effective in accelerating the adoption of solar energy. Crucially, however, state policies also have positive spillovers to other states, by making it more likely that neighboring states adopt climate policy as well. By proportionally attributing the spillover effects, we find that many US states achieve more climate benefits through the spillovers to other states than within their own jurisdiction. In a further step, we distinguish between climate policies in the energy sector and policies addressed either at other sectors or greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions generally. We find that climate policies in the energy sector are distinct from other climate policies in two ways: They have a significant effect on solar capacity growth and they diffuse more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy; policy diffusion; policy evaluation; subnational; spillovers |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/198 |
| By: | Laborde, David; Olivetti, Elsa; Piñeiro, Valeria; Illescas, Nelson |
| Abstract: | This study identifies food system interventions with high transformational potential for Indonesia by utilizing the MIRAGRODEP a multi-region, multisector computable general equilibrium model to analyze policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. Initiatives such as social safety nets and food stamps can enhance affordability, while repurposing farm subsidies can improve socio-economic sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages that include social safety nets, repurposing agricultural supports, environmental regulation and investment in sustainable production, can lead to substantial GDP growth, poverty reduction, and dietary enhancements. However, each intervention presents distinct trade-offs between economic gains and environmental implications. This analysis underscores the need for a holistic policy approach when trying to achieve multiple sustainability goals. Implementing a blend of policies designed to promote environmental, social, and economic sustainability simultaneously could drive Indonesia towards a sustainable and resilient food system, addressing the complex interplay between economic development, environmental conservation, and improved nutrition. |
| Keywords: | food systems; computable general equilibrium models; policies; social safety nets; sustainable development; agriculture; economic development; nutrition; poverty; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Indonesia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2265 |
| By: | Nduka, Eleanya (University of Warwick and UK Energy Research Centre); Jimoh, Modupe (University of Warwick and UK Energy Research Centre) |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes novel data to investigate the impact of cooking energy sources and indoor air pollution on the happiness, life satisfaction, physical, and mental health of women in Nigeria. The existing body of literature relies on ambient air pollution data, which can be limiting in resource-constrained settings. To address this gap, we employ a direct approach, measuring Carbon Monoxide (CO) levels in participants’ blood using the Rad-57 CO-oximeter. Our analysis reveals strong positive correlations between the utilization of clean cooking energy and women’s reported happiness and life satisfaction. Additionally, the study finds that clean cooking energy usage is associated with a significant reduction in mental health problems among women. These findings highlight a substantial disparity in wellbeing based on access to clean cooking energy sources. Furthermore, exposure to carbon monoxide, as measured in this study, demonstrates a detrimental effect on women’s health and overall well-being. Consequently, policymakers and stakeholders should prioritize initiatives that promote household energy access and facilitate the transition to clean cooking practices, especially in rural areas where the use of polluting fuels and exposure to indoor air pollution remain prevalent concerns. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution ; Clean Cooking ; Dirty Cooking ; Energy ; Health ; Happiness ; Mental health ; Well-being ; Women; Poverty. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1515 |
| By: | Wasim Ahmad; Mohammad Arshad Rahman; Suruchi Shrimali; Preeti Roy |
| Abstract: | This article develops multiple novel climate risk measures (or variables) based on the television news coverage by Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business, and examines how they affect the systematic and idiosyncratic risks of clean energy firms in the United States (US). The measures are built on climate related keywords and cover the volume of coverage, type of coverage (climate crisis, renewable energy, and government and human initiatives), and media sentiments. We show that an increase in the aggregate measure of climate risk, as indicated by coverage volume, reduces idiosyncratic risk while increasing systematic risk. When climate risk is segregated, we find that systematic risk is positively affected by the \textit{physical risk} of climate crises and \textit{transition risk} from government and human initiatives, but no such impact is evident for idiosyncratic risk. Additionally, we observe an asymmetry in risk behavior: negative sentiments tend to increase idiosyncratic risk and decrease systematic risk, while positive sentiments have no significant impact. This asymmetry persists even when considering print media variables, climate policy uncertainty, and analysis based on the COVID-19 period. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08701 |
| By: | Philippe Aghion; Lint Barrage; David Hémous; Ernest Liu |
| Abstract: | We analyze a model of green technological transition along a supply chain. In each layer, a good is produced with a dirty technology, or, if the required “electrification” innovation has occurred, with a clean technology which uses the immediate upstream good. We show that the economy is characterized by a single equilibrium but multiple steady-states, and that even in the presence of Pigouvian environmental taxation, a targeted industrial policy is generally necessary to implement the social optimum. We also show that: (i) small, targeted, industrial policy may bring large welfare gains; (ii) a government which is constrained to focus its subsidies to electrification on one particular sector, should primarily target downstream sectors; (iii) when extending the model so as to allow for supply chains also for the dirty technology, overinvesting in electrication in the wrong upstream branch may derail the overall transition towards electrication downstream. Finally, we illustrate our model with a calibration to decarbonization of global iron and steel production via hydrogen direct reduction, and show that, absent industrial policy, the economy can get stuck in a “wrong” steady-state with CO2 emissions vastly above the social optimum even with a carbon price in place. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:450 |
| By: | Benfica, Rui; Hossain, Marup; Davis, Kristin E.; Boukaka, Sedi Anne; Azzarri, Carlo |
| Abstract: | Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost†of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; environment; food security; sustainability; true cost accounting; food production; Africa; South-eastern Asia; Asia; Eastern Africa; Kenya; Vietnam |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2269 |
| By: | Caterina Lepore; Mr. Junghwan Mok |
| Abstract: | We assess financial stability risks from floods in the Netherlands using a comprehensive set of flood scenarios considering different factors including geographical regions, flood types, climate conditions, return periods, and adaptation. The estimated damage from each flood scenario is used to calibrate the corresponding macro-financial scenario for bank stress tests. Our results show the importance of considering these heterogeneous factors when conducting physical climate risk stress tests, as the impact of floods on bank capital varies significantly by scenario. We find that climate change amplifies the adverse impact on banks’ capital, but stronger flood defenses in the Netherlands can help mitigate some impacts. Further, we find a non-linear relationship between flood damages and banks’ capital depletion, highlighting the importance of considering extreme scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Physical risk; flood scenario; banking stress test; climate risk analysis |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/197 |
| By: | Chanel, Olivier; Prati, Alberto; Raux, Morgan |
| Abstract: | We provide an estimate of the environmental impact of the recruitment system in the economics profession, known as the “international job market for economists”. Each year, most graduating PhDs seeking jobs in academia, government, or companies participate in this job market. The market follows a standardized process, where candidates are pre-screened in a short interview which takes place at an annual meeting in Europe or in the United States. Most interviews are arranged via a non-profit online platform, econjobmarket.org, which kindly agreed to share its anonymized data with us. Using this dataset, we estimate the individual environmental impact of 1057 candidates and one hundred recruitment committees who attended the EEA and AEA meetings in December 2019 and January 2020. We calculate that this pre-screening system generated the equivalent of about 4800 tons of avoidable CO2-eq and a comprehensive economic cost over €4.4 million. We contrast this overall assessment against three counterfactual scenarios: an alternative in-person system, a hybrid system (where videoconference is used for some candidates) and a fully online system (as it happened in 2020–21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Overall, the study can offer useful information to shape future recruitment standards in a more sustainable way. |
| Keywords: | carbon footprint; comprehensive economic cost; environmental impact; international job market; job market for economists |
| JEL: | A11 J44 Q51 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116463 |
| By: | Sanglin Zhao; Hao Deng; Bingkun Yuan |
| Abstract: | China accounts for one-third of the world's total carbon emissions. How to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 to ensure the effective realization of the "dual-carbon" target is an important policy orientation at present. Based on the provincial panel data of ARIMA-BP model, this paper shows that the effect of energy consumption intensity effect is the main factor driving the growth of carbon emissions, per capita GDP and energy consumption structure effect are the main factors to inhibit carbon emissions, and the effect of industrial structure and population size effect is relatively small. Based on the research conclusion, the policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of energy structure, industrial structure, new quality productivity and digital economy. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00039 |
| By: | MAIER Sofia (European Commission - JRC); DE POLI Silvia (European Commission - JRC); AMORES Antonio F (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Carbon taxes on household consumption can simultaneously increase public funding and promote greener consumption habits, an appealing combination for the just transition plans of the European Union (EU). However, concerns about equity and public support pose challenges. This paper assesses the distributional and budgetary effects of various designs for an EU-wide hypothetical carbon tax on households consumption. To this end, we extend the EU tax-benefit microsimulation model, EUROMOD, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data from input-output tables and estimate households’ carbon footprints. We show that a carbon tax on households GHG emissions would be regressive, thereby inequality-increasing. This is primarily due to the low income elasticity of highly GHG-intense necessity goods, such as food and heating, which represent larger shares of income at the bottom of the distribution. Still, we demonstrate that this inequality-increasing impact can be offset with compensatory cash transfers (though these may be challenging to implement), and at least partially reverted with more progressive (and presumably feasible) tax designs, including rate differentiation by products and tax allowances. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202409 |
| By: | Song, Lei (University of California, Santa Barbara); Frazier, Amy E (Arizona State University); Crawford, Christopher L.; Estes, Anna Bond; Estes, Lyndon |
| Abstract: | Producing sufficient food to meet a growing population while minimizing the ecological impacts of agricultural expansion is a major world challenge. We aim to optimize the spatial allocation of future cropland in a manner that balances agricultural and ecological priorities, and test scenarios to reduce the need for cropland expansion to meet future food demands. We design a spatial trade-off model that linearly aggregates multiple land use objectives with flexibly- assigned weights to identify optimal areas for cropland expansion. We apply this model in Tanzania, where conservation of its biodiverse ecosystems is often in conflict with agriculture, to evaluate how various decision-making factors impact future cropland allocation and the associated ecological impacts. The model considers potential yield of five key crops (maize, paddy rice, sorghum, cassava, and common beans) along with travel time to markets (as an indicator for market proximity), and costs to biodiversity, carbon sequestration and landscape connectivity. Results show that compared to only considering crop yields, a hybrid solution, which equally considers multiple factors in decision-making, reduced travel time to markets by 25.4%, biodiversity loss by 1.4%, carbon loss by 0.8%, and connectivity loss by 27.5%, while only increasing land demand by 2.6%. Furthermore, increasing cropland area usage intensity and expanding the cultivation of high-yield crops can effectively boost food production, with the potential to double the current production only using existing cropland. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4xnwb |
| By: | Mario Tamez; Hans Weenink; Akihiro Yoshinaga |
| Abstract: | Well-designed legal frameworks and institutional arrangments support the legitimacy of central banks’ autonomous decision-making when grounded on sound legal basis and can prevent over-stepping in the remit of other authorities. This paper explores the key legal intersections of climate change and central banks. Climate change could impact price and finanical stability, which are at the core of a central bank’s mandate. While central banks’ legal frameworks can support climate change efforts they also determine the boundaries of the measures they can adopt. Central banks need to assess their mandate and authority under their current legal frameworks when considering measures to contribute to the global response to climate change, while taking actions to fulfill their legal mandates. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Central Bank; Legal Framework |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/192 |
| By: | Beata Cichocka (Center for Global Development); Ian Mitchell (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies and evaluates China's bilateral, regional, and multilateral climate-related development finance from the Belt and Road Initiative's inception in 2013 until 2021, shedding light on its substantial but often opaque contributions. Our analysis suggests that China has provided an annual average of nearly $4 billion for climate to developing countries since 2013, totalling over $34 billion by 2021, primarily through bilateral channels through lending from its policy banks. Recently, China's climate finance through multilateral institutions has substantially increased. However, this increase has been coupled with declines in China’s bilateral climate-relevant finance, which fell from over $6 billion in 2017 to under $1 billion in 2021, outpacing the decline of China’s overall development finance. Separately, we find China has made significant ongoing fossil fuel investments in developing countries, amounting to over double its climate-relevant finance over the period. Since 2017, the Chinese government has made commitments to “green” its outward cooperation, and outbound fossil fuel finance fell below climate-related finance for the first time in 2021. Although China remains a “developing” country and recipient of climate finance, it is now a net provider of climate support, suggesting it is already positioned to contribute to a new UN climate finance goal to be agreed for beyond 2025. Overall, this paper seeks to contribute to debates on China’s role in the international climate finance architecture and emphasizes the potential for other development actors to further engage China in multilateral climate cooperation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:339 |
| By: | Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Micu DDM Dan Doru; Adrian Cote |
| Abstract: | This research explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior and preferences related to household energy consumption through actions to fight climate change in Belgium, Romania, Italy, and Sweden. Using data from two Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 2019 and 2021, the study examines shifts in climate change perception, actions to combat climate change, and the influence of socio-economic and demographic variables on these actions. Depending on the country, the findings reveal significant pandemic-induced changes in public perceptions of climate change and personal actions to combat it. Age, gender, and education level were found to influence climate change actions. Financial constraints also significantly influenced the adoption of energy-efficient behaviors. Our research enriches existing knowledge by exploring the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change perceptions and actions across diverse European countries, shedding light on the interplay between global crises and sustainability. The research methodology, including chi-square tests, logistic regression, and effect size measurements, provides a robust framework for understanding how economic factors and consumer behaviors are contributing to the development of effective energy policies. |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/377982 |
| By: | Anthony Harding; Juan Moreno-Cruz |
| Abstract: | With the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence, there are expectations for a proportional expansion of economic activity due to increased productivity, and with it energy consumption and its associated environmental consequences like carbon dioxide emissions. Here, we combine data on economic activity, with early estimates of likely adoption of AI across occupations and industries, to estimate the increase in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions at the industry level and in aggregate for the US economy. At the industry level, energy use can increase between 0 and 12 PJ per year, while emissions increase between 47 tCO$_2$ and 272 ktCO$_2$. Aggregating across industries in the US economy, this totals an increase in energy consumption of 28 PJ per year, or around 0.03% of energy use per year in the US. We find this translates to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 896 ktCO$_2$ per year, or around 0.02% of the CO$_2$ emissions per year in the US. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.06626 |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Evan Perry; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | In support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) creates flood maps that indicate areas with high flood risk, where mortgage applicants must buy flood insurance. The effects of flood insurance mandates were discussed in detail in a prior blog series. In 2021 alone, more than $200 billion worth of mortgages were originated in areas covered by a flood map. However, these maps are discrete, whereas the underlying flood risk may be continuous, and they are sometimes outdated. As a result, official flood maps may not fully capture the true flood risk an area faces. In this post, we make use of unique property-level mortgage data and find that in 2021, mortgages worth over $600 billion were originated in areas with high flood risk but no flood map. We examine what types of lenders are aware of this “unmapped” flood risk and how they adjust their lending practices. We find that—on average—lenders are more reluctant to lend in these unmapped yet risky regions. Those that do, such as nonbanks, are more aggressive at securitizing and selling off risky loans. |
| Keywords: | floods; climate change; mortgages |
| JEL: | G21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98848 |
| By: | Dardati, Evangelina; Laurent, Thibault; Margaretic, Paula; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and employing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that, as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. In particular, we find that one standard deviation contraction in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle/high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and observe positive and significant origin-and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our findings contribute to understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, conflict, and international migration while offering insights into migration patterns across countries. |
| Keywords: | Migration flows, climate change, conflict, droughts |
| JEL: | C31 F22 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129726 |
| By: | Paliński, Michał (University of Warsaw); Aşık, Gunes A. (TOBB University of Economy and Technology); Gajderowicz, Tomasz (University of Warsaw); Jakubowski, Maciej (University of Warsaw); Nas Özen, Efşan (World Bank); Raju, Dhushyanth (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study expands the inventory of green job titles by incorporating a global perspective and using contemporary sources. It leverages natural language processing, specifically a retrieval-augmented generation model, to identify green job titles. The process began with a search of academic literature published after 2008 using the official APIs of Scopus and Web of Science. The search yielded 1, 067 articles, from which 695 unique potential green job titles were identified. The retrieval-augmented generation model used the advanced text analysis capabilities of Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4, providing a reproducible method to categorize jobs within various green economy sectors. The research clustered these job titles into 25 distinct sectors. This categorization aligns closely with established frameworks, such as the U.S. Department of Labor's Occupational Information Network, and suggests potential new categories like green human resources. The findings demonstrate the efficacy of advanced natural language processing models in identifying emerging green job roles, contributing significantly to the ongoing discourse on the green economy transition. |
| Keywords: | AI, text mining, occupational classification, green jobs, green economy |
| JEL: | J23 Q52 O14 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17286 |
| By: | Robson, Sally (Resources for the Future); Russell, Ethan (Resources for the Future); Shawhan, Daniel (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Electricity from offshore wind is considered important for reducing energy-related emissions because of its ability to serve coastal areas and complement other nonemitting electricity sources. However, there are open questions about the degree to which it will replace emitting versus other nonemitting generation, improve public health, and affect the total cost of the electricity supply. In the face of recent input cost increases and project cancellations, governments are deciding how strongly to support offshore wind development. To help with such decisions, we project and evaluate several effects of a set of 32 planned or proposed offshore wind farms along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, which would produce approximately 2.5 percent of US and Canadian electricity generation. We examine how those offshore wind farms would affect other electricity generation capacity, generation, emissions, health, costs for electricity and natural gas customers, profits of the electricity and natural gas supply industries, and net government revenues, in the year 2035. We include capital expenditure recovery and financing among the costs.In our modeling results, from a detailed power sector capacity expansion and dispatch model, the offshore wind farms’ estimated net benefits are positive, with an estimated benefit-to-cost ratio of 14 to 1. Generation from the offshore wind farms disproportionately reduces natural gas and coal-fueled generation, causing large emissions reductions. Further, the emissions reductions tend to be upwind of densely populated areas. Consequently, the offshore wind farms reduce annual estimated US premature deaths from airborne particulate matter and ground-level ozone by 520 per year. Black, Hispanic, and low-income Americans account for a disproportionately large share of the premature deaths avoided, as do residents of the New York City area. The offshore wind farms reduce worldwide projected future deaths from climate change by 1, 600 per year of their operation. The offshore wind farms increase the overall nonenvironmental costs of the electricity supply but reduce customer electricity and natural gas bills. Though our study is relatively comprehensive, it, like others, does not include all benefits and costs. Notably, it does not include estimates of the likely downward effect of the 32 offshore wind farms on the cost of subsequent offshore wind development or the benefits of the increased future development that is likely to result. |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-17 |
| By: | Bernard Deschamps; Philippe Gachon; Michel Leclerc; Mathieu Boudreault (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | In Québec, flood damage costs have risen sharply over the past 40 years, partly due to population and property growth in flood-prone areas. This phenomenon is exacerbated by extreme weather events, such as torrential rains, some of which are on the rise in southern Québec in spring. Today, these costs are primarily covered by provincial and federal financial assistance programs and, to a lesser extent, by private insurance. These cost-sharing mechanisms give rise to moral hazard because they do not encourage municipalities or disaster victims to reduce risk. Municipalities need to be included in cost sharing because of their crucial role in land use planning and risk management. Similarly, disaster victims need to be included because they also have a role to play in reducing risk. This paper proposes and analyzes an economic contribution mechanism for municipalities that distributes the cost of damage to residential buildings more equitably. (Equity refers to a fair and just distribution of the financial burden based on the relative level of exposure to risk and the ability to reduce the risk for all parties involved.) The contribution is calculated for three medium-sized municipalities in Québec based on the sum of the average annual damage to each of the residential buildings located in their jurisdictions, and on property values. Three observations are drawn from this analysis: 1) a municipality's level of exposure is not correlated with its property value; 2) the low damage rate of a majority of buildings located in flood-prone areas justifies maintaining these buildings in these zones, provided that mitigation measures are implemented; and 3) relocating a minimum number of buildings would considerably reduce the municipality's economic contribution to damage costs. Implementing an economic contribution mechanism for municipalities and exposed citizens is intended to reduce the moral hazard and inequity generated by the current approach and encourage municipalities to implement mitigation and risk reduction measures. All stakeholders could equitably finance these measures. |
| Keywords: | flood damage, flood risk sharing, moral hazard, economic equity, municipal contribution |
| JEL: | H76 H84 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:69 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Kenneth Gillingham; Simon Scheidegger |
| Abstract: | There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory. We discuss challenges in solving dynamic stochastic IAMs with sharp nonlinearities, multiple regions, and multiple sources of risk. Key innovations in deep learning and other machine learning approaches overcome many computational challenges and enhance the accuracy and relevance of policy findings. We conclude with an overview of recent applications of IAMs and key policy insights. |
| JEL: | C61 E27 Q5 Q51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32963 |
| By: | Léon-Gómez, Carlos R.; Teixidó, Jordi J.; Verde, Stefano F. |
| Abstract: | We study the local distortionary effects of notches in Spain’s CO2-based vehicle registration tax on the distribution of new car CO2 performance. These effects are the smoking gun of carmaker strategic behaviour and affect in turn tax revenue and CO2 emissions. Using model-level data on all car registrations in Spain 2010-2020, we apply the bunching approach to the three thresholds of the tax scheme: 120, 160, and 200 gCO2/km. We find that the tax notches strongly affected market outcomes, resulting in the sale of about 388, 000 more cars (overall) at or just below the thresholds compared to the respective counterfactuals without the thresholds. This translates into about €335 million of foregone tax revenue and only very limited extra abatement of CO2 emissions. Over 90-95% of all estimated bunching took place at the first threshold (120 gCO2/km). Over 60% of all estimated bunching took place before 2015. Bunching diminished over time, which reflects diminished effectiveness of the tax in both reducing CO2 emissions and generating revenue. Taking the interactions with both EU vehicle emission standards and similar CO2-related policies in other Member States into consideration is important for interpreting these results. |
| Keywords: | CO2-based vehicle taxes, Notches, Bunching, Carmakers, Strategic behaviour, Emissions, Tax revenue, Policy interactions |
| JEL: | H23 H30 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122103 |
| By: | Francesco G. Caloia (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kees van Ginkel (Deltares Delft); David-Jan Jansen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We study whether floods can affect financial stability through a credit risk channel. Our focus is on the Netherlands, a country situated partly below sea level, where insurance policies exclude property damages caused by some types of floods. Using geocoded data for close to EUR 650 billion in real estate exposures, we consider possible implications of such floods for bank capital. For a set of 38 adverse scenarios, we estimate that flood-related property damages lead to capital declines that mostly range between 30 and 50 basis points. We highlight how starting-point loan-to-value ratios are one important driver of capital impacts. Our estimates focus on property damages as the main transmission channel and are also subject to a number of assumptions. If climate change continues, more frequent floods or flood-related macrofinancial disruptions may have stronger implications for financial stability than our estimates so far indicate. |
| Keywords: | floods, financial stability, real estate, credit risk, climate change |
| JEL: | G21 Q54 R30 |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230083 |
| By: | Abdel Ghany, Jasmin (University of Oxford); Wilde, Joshua (University of Oxford); Dimitrova, Anna (University of California); Kashyap, Ridhi (University of Oxford); Muttarak, Raya (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | Sex ratios at birth shape populations and are linked to maternal health and gender discrimination. We estimate the effect of prenatal temperature exposure on birth sex by linking data on 5 million births in 33 sub-Saharan African countries and India with high-resolution temperature data. We find that days with a maximum temperature above 20°C reduce male births in both regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, we observe fewer male births after high first trimester temperature exposure, consistent with increased spontaneous abortions from maternal heat stress. By contrast, in India we find second trimester temperature exposure is associated with fewer male births, consistent with reductions in induced sex-selective abortions against girls. These findings demonstrate that climate change harms maternal health, increases prenatal mortality, and reduces engagement with the health system. |
| Keywords: | sex ratios at birth, temperature, prenatal exposure, maternal health, abortion |
| JEL: | J13 J10 I15 I10 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17310 |
| By: | Picchio, Matteo (Marche Polytechnic University); van Ours, Jan C. (Erasmus School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | High temperatures can have a negative effect on workplace safety for a variety of reasons. Discomfort and reduced concentration caused by heat can lead to workers making mistakes and injuring themselves. Discomfort can also be an incentive for workers to report an injury that they would not have reported in the absence of heat. We investigate how temperature affects injuries of professional tennis players in outdoor singles matches. We find that for men injury rates increase with ambient temperatures. For women, there is no effect of high temperatures on injuries. Among male tennis players, there is some heterogeneity in the temperature effects, which seem to be influenced by incentives. Specifically, when a male player is losing at the beginning of a crucial (second) fourth set in (best-of-three) best-of-five matches, the temperature effect is much larger than when he is winning. In best-offive matches, which are more exhausting, this effect is age-dependent and stronger for older players. |
| Keywords: | climate change, temperatures, tennis, injuries, health |
| JEL: | J24 J81 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17272 |
| By: | Rémy Rioux; Matthieu Trichet,; Jean-David Naudet |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the 193 Member States of the United Nations unanimously adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This agenda begins with a common vision describing the various characteristics of a universally desirable world, in particular “one in which democracy, good governance and the rule of law as well as an enabling environment at national and international levels, are essential for sustainable development, including sustained and inclusive economic growth, social development, environmental protection and the eradication of poverty and hunger.” However, in the 17 objectives and 169 targets of this 2030 Agenda, democracy, unlike all the other characteristics of the common vision, is no longer mentioned. Has an 18th development goal been lost along the way? Or perhaps an enhanced Goal 16, as it refers to good governance and the rule of law, but without however a democratic target.This absence of democracy among the universal development objectives is the central theme of this research paper which, based on a selective and sequenced inventory of relevant knowledge, questions the role of democracy in development and development assistance through a historical perspective. It concludes with elements of reflection on the future. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16915 |
| By: | Nicoletta Batini; Luigi Durand |
| Abstract: | We build a two-block general equilibrium model that accounts for Nature by including, alongside man-made capital, natural capital defined as a variety of ecosystem goods and services essential to economic activity. Natural capital is unevenly distributed, displays critical thresholds or ’tipping points’ beyond which the ecosystem is irreversibly altered, and contributes to the evolution of productivity. We show that: (1) when natural capital is abundant, it is optimal to deplete some and conserve some, but less depletion should occur if there is a critical threshold beyond which Nature is irreversibly altered; (2) subsidizing the conservation of Nature makes long-run growth stronger and more sustainable in Nature-rich and Nature-poor countries alike, but implies lower consumption globally in the short run. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1014 |
| By: | Julien Gosse |
| Abstract: | This thesis investigates the strategic digital transformation of organizations in the broader context of sustainability imperatives. Concretely, it focuses on the following questions: How are digital technologies such as platforms, artificial intelligence, and Internet of Things adopted today? What are the managerial complements needed to derive sustainable value from such technologies, and how are those adopted themselves? Finally, how do digital transformation and sustainability intersect with each other and how can organizations strategically integrate both? Relying on quantitative and qualitative data, this thesis brings empirical and theoretical contributions to both practice and research. Regarding the empirical findings, it documents the adoption of digital technologies and managerial practices, identifying the determinants of their profusion and highlighting, for example, the role played by firms’ size. Furthermore, it shows heterogeneity in the joint presence of digital technologies and specific managerial practices, notably those related to environmental innovation. Building upon these empirical findings and conceptual efforts, this thesis also presents theoretical propositions on the interlinkage between digital transformation, corporate strategy and sustainability. Concretely, it advances organizational and managerial complements needed to derive value from digital technologies today and also suggests an heterogeneous role of such technologies in sustainability transformation. |
| Keywords: | Strategic Management; Digital transformation; Digitalization; Sustainability; Environmental Management |
| Date: | 2024–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/376968 |
| By: | El Weriemmi, Malek; Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the impact of CO2 emissions, domestic investment, and trade openness on economic growth in North African countries over the period 1998 to 2022. Utilizing a panel static gravity model, the results reveal that domestic investment exerts a negative influence on economic growth, while CO2 emissions and exports demonstrate a positive contribution. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that imports have an adverse, though statistically insignificant, effect on economic growth. The findings underscore the importance of fostering policies that promote exports and mitigate CO2 emissions, while carefully considering the potential negative implications of imports on the economic growth of North African countries. |
| Keywords: | CO2 Emissions, Domestic Investment, Trade Openness, Economic Growth, North African Countries, Panel Data, Gravity Model. |
| JEL: | C33 F43 O13 O55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122152 |
| By: | HARIT, ADITYA |
| Abstract: | Stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana presents significant environmental and health challenges. This paper develops a Keynesian economic model to analyze the equilibrium between stubble burning and alternative methods, integrating the role of government intervention, central bank policies, and trade variables. By solving the model step by step, it provide insights into how fiscal and monetary policies can optimize social welfare and address externalities associated with stubble burning. |
| Keywords: | Stubble Burning, Cost Analysis, Economic Equilibrium, Alternate Policies, Decision Making, Environmental Impact, Farmer Behaviour |
| JEL: | C02 E0 E12 E50 H00 Q01 Q11 Q19 |
| Date: | 2024–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122164 |
| By: | Jan Frankowski; Jakub Sokolowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Aleksandra Prusak |
| Abstract: | The study includes a procedure and recommendations for collecting data on energy poverty at the building level, available in national and local government registers. The adopted analytical process allowed for developing various energy renovation scenarios for municipal buildings in Warsaw, considering a balance between social, environmental and economic goals in urban policy and identifying locations with the highest exposure to energy poverty. As a result of the analysis, we propose establishing an intracity working group to discuss issues related to the residential energy transition as well as criteria, weights and indicators of intervention; developing a city definition of energy retrofit, along with the introduction of measurable criteria for the energy efficiency of buildings; ensuring the completeness, interoperability, and further development of the city's internal data monitoring system. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, retrofits, multi-family buildings, administrative data, Warsaw |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:report:rr012024 |
| By: | Soumil Hooda; Shubham Sharma; Kunal Bansal |
| Abstract: | This technical report presents a stochastic framework for pricing temperature derivatives in Indian markets accounting for both monsoon and winter seasons. Utilising historical temperature and electricity consumption data from 12 Indian states we develop a model based on a modified mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and employ Monte Carlo simulations for pricing. Our analysis reveals significant variations in option pricing across states with monsoon call options ranging from 10.78 USD to 182.82 USD and winter put options from 48.65 USD to 194.99 USD. The introduction of a risk aversion parameter shows substantial impacts on pricing leading to an increase of up to 416 percentage in option prices for certain states. Sensitivity analyses indicate that option prices are more responsive to changes in volatility than to mean reversion rates. Additionally extreme weather scenarios can shift option prices by up to 409 percentage during heatwaves and decrease by 60 percentage during cold waves. These findings emphasise the importance of state-specific and season-specific approaches in temperature derivative pricing highlighting the need for tailored risk management strategies in India's diverse climate. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04541 |
| By: | Vincent P. Roberdel (Eindhoven University of Technology); Ioulia V. Ossokina (Eindhoven University of Technology); Vladimir A. Karamychev (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Theo A. Arentze (Eindhoven University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency improvements in low income housing are increasingly used as a policy instrument to alleviate poverty. Our paper shows that this may come at the expense of reduced environmental benefits. We follow 125, 000 Dutch low-income households during eight years and exploit a quasi-experimental policy that diminished the heat losses in their homes. We pay specific attention to the policy effects at the very left tail of the income distribution. While the average after-policy reduction in natural gas consumption for heating amounts to 22%, the poorest only save 16%. We build and calibrate a microeconomic model explaining this pattern from substitution between thermal comfort and other goods, and use it to compute welfare trade-offs of the policies. |
| Keywords: | Energy-efficient homes, Social housing, Poverty, Quasi-experiment, Retrofit, Welfare effects |
| JEL: | D12 Q4 Q48 Q5 |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230082 |
| By: | Adjlane Sabah (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions); Khiari Reguia (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions); Mokhnane Tarek (CRSTRA - Center for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions) |
| Abstract: | Algeria is seeking to achieve sustainable agricultural development due to its increasing effects in providing the growing food needs of the population and providing job opportunities for current and future generations. .The agricultural sector is the main source of food and also contributes to providing inputs for many industries that depend mainly on agricultural products. It is also a source of hard currency through its ability to achieve a surplus for export, in addition to creating new job opportunities through various projects.The aim of this study is to introduce the state of Oued Souf is rich in natural, human and water resources. It is especially known for producing some agricultural crops such as potatoes, wheat, barley, peanuts and more. It also aims at identifying the most important challenges it faces so that we can suggest a number of recommendations that contribute to addressing these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Desert agriculture sustainable agricultural development constituents obstacles JEL Classification Codes: Q1 Q01, Desert agriculture, sustainable agricultural development, constituents, obstacles JEL Classification Codes: Q1, Q01 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04684570 |
| By: | The SMERU Research Institute |
| Keywords: | Annual report, cronic poverty, business climate, business regulation, teacher absenteeism, Cash Transfer |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:746 |
| By: | Victoria Dimond (Center for Global Development); Roland Rajah (Lowy Institute); Georgia Hammersley (Lowy Institute) |
| Abstract: | The World Bank’s concessional lending arm, the International Development Association (IDA), provides significant assistance to small states for fostering long-term development and responding to climate change. Around half of all small states have access to IDA. While only 3 percent of IDA’s resources go to small states, these countries comprise nearly a third of IDA-eligible countries. IDA plays a large role in the external financing of these countries, making up a third of official development assistance. The IDA Small States Exception plays a critical function in providing these countries access to IDA, and we argue accounts for the climate vulnerability faced by small states compared to alternative proposals being explored. We show that small states use IDA for adaptation to a greater extent than non-small states and, given large unmet financing needs, discuss how IDA might scale up its adaptation finance to these countries. We evaluate recent World Bank initiatives to scale up disaster finance and conclude with a discussion of key aspects for small states within the World Bank’s SimplifIDA reforms. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:335 |
| By: | Timperio, Giuseppe |
| Abstract: | Progressive urbanization of disaster-prone areas and the escalating impacts of climate change are contributing to a sharp increase in complex natural disasters. Amidst shrinking financial resources for disaster response, the need for improving decision-making in humanitarian logistics and supply chain management, the backbone of disaster relief absorbing between 60 and 80% of relief budgets, is imperative. Central to many challenges inhibiting effective and efficient provision of relief assistance is that most humanitarian organizations operate in silos. As a result, disaster response operations often experience suboptimal response times, over- or under-supply of necessary items, and higher-than-expected costs. In addressing these compelling challenges, the traditional organization- and execution-centric approach to humanitarian logistics is no longer sufficient. The increased complexity of humanitarian operations calls for a multidisciplinary research effort, with greater attention to ecosystem-aware, beneficiary-centric supply chain networks, with simultaneous attention to both planning and execution of humanitarian operations in consideration of the highly unpredictable and volatile environment relief assistance is delivered in. Despite the multifaceted nature of these challenges, rigorous, practice-focused research-based frameworks remain lacking in the existing body of knowledge. To fill this gap, this dissertation project presents a series of progressive multi-method decision support frameworks that integrate analytical and dynamic simulation approaches and rigorously validate them through realistic use cases, aspiring to address the multiple dimensions of the problem statement. By architecting modular frameworks that encompass models, data, knowledge, and technology, this dissertation goes beyond the use of standalone methods, striving to provide adaptable, practice-based approaches suitable for diverse disaster contexts and geographies. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149653 |
| By: | Peter Klimek (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet); Maximilian Hess (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria); Markus Gerschberger (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Josef Ressel Centre for Real-Time Value Network Visibility, Logistikum, University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria); Stefan Thurner (Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria; Medical University of Vienna, Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS; Complexity Science Hub Vienna; Santa Fe Institute) |
| Abstract: | The steel industry is a significant contributor to global CO2 emissions, accounting for 7% of emissions. The European steel industry aims to reduce emissions by transitioning towards electric arc furnaces (EAFs), which can produce steel from scrap, a crucial step towards a circular steel economy. This paper uses trade and business intelligence data to show that this shift necessitates a profound restructuring of global and European scrap trade and a significant expansion of the business ecosystem. We find that scrap imports in European countries with major EAF installations have steadily decreased since 2007, while global scrap trade has recently increased. Statistical modeling indicates that for every 1, 000 tonnes of EAF capacity installed, annual scrap imports increase by 550 tonnes and exports decrease by 1, 000 tonnes, suggesting increased competition for scrap metal as EAF capacity expands. Furthermore, each scrap company supports around 79, 000 tonnes of EAF-based steel production per year in the EU. Extrapolating current EAF expansion plans, we estimate that an additional 730 companies may be required, creating approximately 35, 000 jobs and generating USD 35 billion in turnover. This analysis suggests that scrap metal is likely to become a strategic resource, highlighting the need for a major restructuring of the industry’s supply networks and identifying growth opportunities for companies. |
| Keywords: | Electric Arc Furnaces, Circular Economy, Trade Networks, Ferrous Waste, Steel Industry, Supply Chain, European Steel |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdt:wpaper:003 |
| By: | Rachid Touil (Université d'Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed [Oran]); Ouyahia Zoubida (Université d'Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed [Oran]) |
| Abstract: | Our study aims to know the CSR practices of the first company in Africa, SONATRACH, we opted for a semi-directive interview with three senior executives who answered economic questions, questions relating to the company's internal and external society, and questions relating to environmental issues. The results show that SONATRACH's responsible practices are a corporate citizen par excellence, the company opts for a responsible policy that applies international standards of behavior, ethics, and the environment, which makes this company a model for any other large company. |
| Keywords: | Social responsibility Environment Social Iso26000. JEL Classification Codes: Q56 M14, Social responsibility, Environment, Social, Iso26000. JEL Classification Codes: Q56, M14 |
| Date: | 2023–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680588 |
| By: | Jana, Arjun; Goli, Srinivas |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts * 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted ‘U-shape’ relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961-2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Population Growth; Agricultural Land; Land-Population Relationship; Dynamic Panel Data Analysis; Spatial Econometrics; Malthusian-Boserupian Debate |
| JEL: | J11 Q15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121803 |
| By: | Bernardi, Marta; Zeller, Sarah; Rotich, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | The study provides empirical evidence that a targeted policy can backfire because information signals affect non-targeted units. Specifically, the analysis of the policy aimed at regulating the harvesting of juvenile fish in Peru's Anchovy Fishery, by temporarily closing areas with high juvenile catch percentages, reveals an unintended increase of 48% in the overall seasonal juvenile catch percentage. This appears to be due to substantial spatial and temporal spillovers generated by the policy that reduces search costs for fishers. The study combines administrative micro-data used by the regulator to generate closures with biologically richer data from fishing firms. All results are easily computationally reproducible within a 5-hour time frame, except for the synthetic controls robustness check, which takes a considerable amount of time (appr. 64 hours) but works. We stress the robustness and reproducibility of the study by testing whether the analysis is robust to the use of different types of standard errors, and the findings appear unaffected. Overall, the full analysis and graphic outputs of the paper are reproducible using the publicly available complementary data and code from the AEJ website despite minor code interpretability challenges. |
| Keywords: | information spillovers, targeted policies, place-based policies, fisheries, Peru |
| JEL: | Q28 O13 Q56 D83 Q22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:156 |
| By: | Pardy, Martina; Riom, Capucine; Hoffmann, Roman |
| Abstract: | Worsening climatic conditions are a significant threat to livelihoods, health and well-being worldwide. In this paper, we estimate the impact of temperature and precipitation anomalies on inequality and poverty using a dataset combining comprehensive climatological data with subnational regional wealth and inequality measures derived from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 52 countries and 453 regions. Using the International Wealth Index as a comparative measure of material wealth, we find a significant impact of temperature anomalies on the distribution of material wealth. We estimate that an average temperature anomaly of one standard deviation in the past 4 years increases the regional Gini coefficient by 0.018 points and increases the share of extremely poor households by 4.1 percent. The impacts are stronger in rural areas. We find that temperature anomalies affect inequality through multiple channels, including agricultural employment, the deterioration of assets, decreased economic activity, higher unemployment and worsened access to healthcare. The impacts of precipitation anomalies on inequality, on the other hand, are more ambiguous. |
| Keywords: | environment; inequality; regional development |
| JEL: | Q56 I31 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125447 |
| By: | Souryabrata Mohapatra (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Sanjib Pohit (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | How can India leverage its potential and implement effective strategies to become a developed nation by 2047? In his 2022 Independence Day speech, the Prime Minister (PM) outlined an ambitious vision for transforming the nation into a developed country by 2047—‘Viksit Bharat (VB)’. It aims to reshape India into a technologically advanced, economically strong and socially inclusive nation. This paper delves into the various aspects of VB, examining the critical strategies and policies required to achieve this transformation. It highlights significant progress in green energy, infrastructure development and socio-economic programmes and discusses the necessary reforms to achieve Viksit Bharat and a $30 trillion economy. The goal of achieving a $30 trillion economy by 2047 is a cornerstone of the VB vision, encompassing a broad vision for holistic development, renovating India into a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable nation. The study explores India’s unique opportunities in the context of its demographic dividend, technological advancements and socioeconomic initiatives. By drawing insights from historical transformations, the paper presents a strategic roadmap for India, emphasising the importance of coordinated efforts across energy, infrastructure, agriculture, services and governance sectors. It underscores the interlinked nature of these initiatives and the vital role of governance, technology and economic growth in realising ‘India@2047’—India’s future on the occasion of its 100th anniversary of independence. This paper provides a comprehensive guide for policymakers, outlining the path to a prosperous and developed India. |
| Keywords: | : Viksit Bharat; Energy efficiency; Sustainable agriculture; Enhanced infrastructure; Inclusive service and governance |
| JEL: | O10 O22 R11 Q01 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:167 |
| By: | Günther, Maria; Höcker, Martin Christian; Pfnür, Andreas |
| Abstract: | In the current dynamic business environment, companies are faced with a wide range of economic and social changes. Through the ongoing war for talent, employer branding is becoming increasingly relevant for companies to attract and retain employees. Simultaneously, the change in social values leads to sustainability becoming a decisive criterion for many employees when choosing their employer. In response to these changes, many companies are focusing on a sustainability-oriented employer brand. Corporate real estate (CRE) can contribute to the employer branding success by meeting the employee’s sustainability requirements and communicating the sustainability-oriented employer brand. However, the increasing pluralisation of social values means that the sustainability orientations and employee requirements can differ greatly from one another. Therefore, companies and their corporate real estate management (CREM) must know their employer brand target group and which sustainability requirements they place on CRE. The aim of the present study is to analyse these real estate-related sustainability requirements of employees. By examining the relevance of the respective sustainability dimensions (ecological, economic, social) from the employees' perspective, a "fit" between employee requirements and CRE can be established in order to contribute to successful employer branding. This study analyses survey data from N = 937 German office workers. Hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to identify employee groups and their assessment of the relevance of the sustainability dimensions in the real estate context. The cluster analysis reveals a general importance of all three sustainability dimensions for the identified employee groups. However, user satisfaction and, thus, social sustainability are rated highest for all identified groups. The results suggest that the perception of sustainability-related impacts of office properties has a decisive influence on the employees' assessment. Thus, CREM can positively influence the perception of the company's real estate as well as the company itself through sustainable action. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149745 |
| By: | Jun He; Andrew L. Liu |
| Abstract: | The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into wholesale energy markets can greatly enhance grid flexibility, improve market efficiency, and contribute to a more sustainable energy future. As DERs -- such as solar PV panels and energy storage -- proliferate, effective mechanisms are needed to ensure that small prosumers can participate meaningfully in these markets. We study a wholesale market model featuring multiple DER aggregators, each controlling a portfolio of DER resources and bidding into the market on behalf of the DER asset owners. The key of our approach lies in recognizing the repeated nature of market interactions the ability of participants to learn and adapt over time. Specifically, Aggregators repeatedly interact with each other and with other suppliers in the wholesale market, collectively shaping wholesale electricity prices (aka the locational marginal prices (LMPs)). We model this multi-agent interaction using a mean-field game (MFG), which uses market information -- reflecting the average behavior of market participants -- to enable each aggregator to predict long-term LMP trends and make informed decisions. For each aggregator, because they control the DERs within their portfolio under certain contract structures, we employ a mean-field control (MFC) approach (as opposed to a MFG) to learn an optimal policy that maximizes the total rewards of the DERs under their management. We also propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based method to help each agent learn optimal strategies within the MFG framework, enhancing their ability to adapt to market conditions and uncertainties. Numerical simulations show that LMPs quickly reach a steady state in the hybrid mean-field approach. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the combination of energy storage and mean-field learning significantly reduces price volatility compared to scenarios without storage. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00107 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (Warwick University and University of Bonn); Palmou, Christina (Office for National Statistics (ONS)); Schneebacher, Jakob (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)) |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use kmeans clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock ; firm dynamics ; climate change ; high-dimensional analysis JEL Codes: D22 ; D24 ; H23 ; L11 ; O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1517 |
| By: | Anna Josephson; Jeffrey D. Michler; Talip Kilic; Siobhan Murray |
| Abstract: | The availability of weather data from remotely sensed Earth observation (EO) data has reduced the cost of including weather variables in econometric models. Weather variables are common instrumental variables used to predict economic outcomes and serve as an input into modelling crop yields for rainfed agriculture. The use of EO data in econometric applications has only recently been met with a critical assessment of the suitability and quality of this data in economics. We quantify the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in EO data in the context of smallholder agricultural productivity. We find that different measurement methods from different EO sources: findings are not robust to the choice of EO dataset and outcomes are not simply affine transformations of one another. This begs caution on the part of researchers using these data and suggests that robustness checks should include testing alternative sources of EO data. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07506 |
| By: | Anja Janischewski (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany); Katharina Bohnenberger (German Institute for Interdisciplinary Social Policy Research, University of Bremen, SOCIUM, Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany); Matthias Kranke (Freiburg Institute for Advanced Studies (FRIAS), University of Freiburg, Germany); Tobias Vogel (Department for Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Fakulty of Economy and Society, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany); Riwan Driouich (Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Spain); Tobias Froese (Chair for Corporate Sustainability, ESCP Business School, Germany); Stefanie Gerold (Institute of Philosophy and Social Science, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Germany); Raphael Kaufmann (ZOE Institute for Future-Fit Economies, Germany); Lorenz Keyßer (Institute of Geography and Sustainability, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Switzerland); Jannis Niethammer (ICLEI European Secretariat, Germany); Christopher Olk (Otto Suhr Institute for Political Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany); Matthias Schmelzer (Norbert-Elias-Center for Transformation Design and Research, University of Flensburg, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Germany); Aslı Yürük (Urban Transformation and Global Change Laboratory (TURBA), Universitat Oberta Catalunya, Spain); Steffen Lange (Centre for Pluralist Economics, University of Siegen, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Many socio-economic systems require positive economic growth rates to function properly. Given uncertainty about future growth rates and increasing evidence that economic growth is a driver of social and environmental crises, these growth dependencies pose serious societal challenges. In recent years, more and more researchers have thus tried to identify growth-dependent systems and develop policies to reduce their growth dependence. However, the concept of "growth dependence" still lacks a consistent definition and operationalization, which impedes more systematic empirical and theoretical research. This article proposes a simple but powerful framework for defining and operationalizing the concept of "growth dependence" across socio-economic systems. We provide a general definition consisting of four components that can be specified for different empirical cases: (1) the system under investigation, (2) the unit of measurement of growth, (3) the level of growth and (4) the relevant functions or properties of the system under investigation. According to our general definition, a socio-economic system is growth-dependent if it requires a long-term positive growth rate in terms of a unit of economic measurement to maintain all its functions or properties that are relevant within the chosen normative framework. To illustrate the usefulness of our scheme, we apply it to three areas at the heart of the existing literature on growth dependence: employment, social insurance systems and public finance. These case studies demonstrate that whether or not a system is growth-dependent hinges not only on the empirical properties of the system itself but also on the specification of the concept of growth dependence. Our framework enables coherent, robust and effective definitions and research questions, fostering comparability of findings across different cases and disciplines. Better research can lead to better policies for reducing growth dependence and thus achieving stable and sustainable economies. |
| Keywords: | growth dependence, growth independence, post-growth, green growth, degrowth, growth imperative |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep064 |