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on Environmental Economics |
By: | Timilsina , Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon |
Abstract: | The question of whether biofuels help mitigate climate change has attracted much debate in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model that explicitly represents land-use change impacts due to the expansion of biofuels, this study attempts to shed some light on this question. The study shows that if biofuel mandates and targets currently announced by more than 40 countries around the world are implemented by 2020 using crop feedstocks, and if both forests and pasture lands are used to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion, this would cause a net increase of greenhouse gas emissions released to the atmosphere until 2043, since the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions released through land-use change would exceed the reduction of emissions due to replacement of gasoline and diesel until then. However, if the use of forest lands is avoided by channeling only pasture lands to meet the demand for new lands, a net increase of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions would occur but would cease by 2021, only a year after the assumed full implementation of the mandates and targets. The study also shows, contrary to common perceptions, that the rate of deforestation does not increase with the rate of biofuel expansion; instead, the marginal rate of deforestation and corresponding land-use emissions decrease even if the production of biofuels increases. |
Keywords: | Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Climate Change and Environment |
Date: | 2011–06–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5672&r=env |
By: | Igor Khmelinskii; Peter Stallinga |
Abstract: | Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes only very moderately to the observed warming, and that there is no climatic catastrophe in the making, independent on whether or not carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. In view of these developments, we discuss climate predictions for the XXIst century. Based on the solar activity tendencies, a new Little Ice Age is predicted by the middle of this century, with significantly lower global temperatures. We also show that IPCC climate models can't produce any information regarding future climate, due to essential physical phenomena lacking in those, and that the current budget deficit in many EU countries is mainly caused by the policies promoting renewable energies and other AGW-motivated measures. In absence of any predictable adverse climate consequences of carbon dioxide emissions, and with no predictable shortage of fossil fuels, we argue for recalling of all policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions and usage of expensive renewable energy sources. The concepts of carbon credits, green energy and green fuels should be abandoned in favor of productive, economically viable and morally acceptable solutions. |
Date: | 2011–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1105.5845&r=env |
By: | Jari Hyvärinen |
Abstract: | This study examines structures at the environment and energy sectors and those challenges to face in ongoing climate change. It investigates firstly goals behind steps how to decrease effects of climate change, research results and scenarios and which support to achieve these goals. Study also clarifies those goals set in Finland which improve environmental conditions, and moreover in the Baltic Sea. In the end, the study explores markets, business possibilities, investments and resources at the environment and energy sectors, and especially at the renewable energy sector globally and in Finland. |
Date: | 2011–06–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1252&r=env |
By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
Abstract: | This paper highlights the importance of regional governments in the context of Indonesian struggle to resolve the problem of climate change, in particular, and wider area of environmental problem. It emphasizes, that regional governments, more often than not, overlook the value of conservation, despite evidences that conservation not only has the benefit of securing the welfare of future generation but also can avoid various environmental problem and many natural disasters of today. There is a need to modify the paradigm of financing for climate change mitigation or adaptation from focusing on searching external financing with the basis of compensation but optimizing internal source of financing as it is the local who will benefit from many of our conservation actions. |
Keywords: | climate change, conservation, regional development, Indonesia |
JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 |
Date: | 2011–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:201101&r=env |
By: | Heijdra, Ben J. (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Institute for Advanced Studies, CESifo, Netspar); Heijnen, Pim (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, The Netherlands) |
Abstract: | We study the environmental and economic effects of public abatement in the presence of multiple stable steady-state ecological equilibria. Under shallow-lake dynamics (SLD), the isocline for the stock of pollution features two stable branches, a good and a bad one. Assuming that the ecology is initially located on the upper (bad) branch of the isocline, the ecological equilibrium is hysteretic and a suitably designed temporary abatement policy can be used to steer the environment from the bad to the good equilibrium. In all models considered in this paper, a “cold turkey” abatement policy is optimal, i.e. the largest feasible shock should be administered for the shortest possible amount of time. Depending on the particular model used to characterize the economic system, there is a capital feedback effect that either helps or hinders the attainment of a successful abatement policy. |
Keywords: | Shallow-lake dynamics, Bifurcation, Environmental policy, Overlapping generations |
JEL: | D60 E62 H23 H63 Q20 Q28 Q50 |
Date: | 2011–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:269&r=env |
By: | Frank Jotzo; Steve Hatfield-Dodds (CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Crawford School of Economics & Government, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia) |
Abstract: | The merits of floor prices in emissions trading schemes (ETS) depend on the problem addressed. Traditional hybrid approaches emphasise automatic response to lower than anticipated abatement costs, but we find adjusting emissions targets over time is the better way to deal with this in the context of climate policy. We find, however, that a price floor is well suited to addressing policy generated carbon price risk as domestic and international policy frameworks mature, reducing the risk of unintended low carbon prices. Reducing such downside risk can encourage cost effective investment in low-emissions assets that might otherwise be precluded by perceived policy risks, even if the price floor is never actually triggered. In AustraliaÕs planned ETS, a price floor could support investments that lower the national emissions trajectory, and boost policy stability and credibility. A price floor in operation can increase the static costs of achieving a given emissions target, but reduce economic costs over time. Assessment of implementation options suggests a domestic reserve price for auctioned permits along with a periodically adjusted fee on the conversion of international permits for use in the domestic ETS. This approach minimises administrative complexity and avoids arbitrary interventions in carbon markets. |
JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
Date: | 2011–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:1105&r=env |
By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
Abstract: | This paper first highlights at least four important issues relevant to be discussed in the context of climate change in Indonesia: (1) Indonesia is among the most vulnerable to climate change impact; (2) Indonesia is the second biggest contributor to global GHG emissions from land use change or deforestation; (3) As the fourth biggest country in term of population, Indonesia is also the candidate to become among the most important carbon emitters from energy consumption; (4) Indonesia is still struggling in economic development, particularly poverty alleviation. The first three issues are sufficient reasons for Indonesia, together with the rest of the world, to take necessary actions against climate change and the fourth issue is ‘the number one’ priority in Indonesian development and the element that must always be the prime consideration in any of those actions. This paper also review some of the actions that has been done particularly by Indonesian government in tackling climate change and questions some of its shortcomings and challenges. |
Keywords: | climate change, Indonesia |
JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 |
Date: | 2011–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:201102&r=env |
By: | Akpan, Usenobong F.; Chuku, Agbai |
Abstract: | The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is a presumption that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped trajectory in relation to economic growth. The thorny question of whether economic growth could provide a cure to environmental degradation has sparked off a large body of empirical studies in the last decade. The conclusions have been mixed. This study contributes to the debate on the existence and policy relevance of the EKC for Nigeria by applying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework to annual time series data from 1960 to 2008. The traditional EKC model is extended by including (in addition to the level, square and cubed values of the income variable), trade openness as well as the shares of manufacturing, agriculture and service sectors in Nigeria’s GDP. Using Co2 emissions per capita to proxy environmental degradation, our findings do not support the existence of the EKC hypothesis. Rather our results show that Nigeria’s situation when confronted with data is exemplified by an N-shaped relationship with a turning point at $77.27 that lies below the data set used for the study. Based on these findings, the paper posit that the hypothesized EKC serves as a dangerous policy guide to solving environmental problems in Nigeria. The conclusion is that to ensure sustainability, there exist an urgent need to look beyond the EKC by adopting courageous policy measures of environmental preservation in Nigeria irrespective of the country’s level of income. |
Keywords: | Environmental Degradation; ARDL; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Nigeria |
JEL: | C32 O43 Q24 |
Date: | 2011–04–27 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:31241&r=env |
By: | Strand, Jon |
Abstract: | This paper provides a first analysis of optimal offset policies by a"policy bloc"of fossil fuel importers implementing a climate policy, facing a (non-policy) fringe of other importers, and a bloc of fuel exporters. The policy bloc uses either a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade scheme, jointly with a fully efficient offset mechanism for reducing emissions in the fringe. The policy bloc is then shown to prefer a tax over a cap-and-trade scheme, since 1) a tax extracts more rent as fuel exporters reduce the export price, and more so when the policy bloc is larger relative to the fringe; and 2) offsets are more favorable to the policy bloc under a tax than under a cap-and-trade scheme. The optimal offset price under a carbon tax is half the tax rate; under a cap-and-trade scheme the quota and offset price are equal. The domestic carbon and offset price are both higher under a tax than under a cap-and-trade scheme when the policy bloc is small; when it is larger the offset price can be higher under a cap-and-trade scheme. Fringe countries gain by mitigation in the policy bloc, and more under a carbon tax since the fuel import price is lower, and since the price obtained when selling offsets is often higher (always so for a large fringe). |
Keywords: | Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Energy Production and Transportation,Markets and Market Access,Environment and Energy Efficiency |
Date: | 2011–06–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5675&r=env |
By: | Ralf Martin; Mirabelle Muûls; Ulrich J. Wagner; Laure B. de Preux |
Abstract: | This paper presents new evidence on managerial and organizational factors that explain firm level energy efficiency and TFP. We interviewed managers of 190 randomly selected manufacturing plants in the UK and matched their responses with official business microdata. We find that 'climate friendly' management practices are associated with lower energy intensity and higher TFP. Firms that adopt more such practices also engage in more R&D related to climate change. We show that the variation in management practices across firms can be explained in part by organizational structure. Firms are more likely to adopt climate friendly management practices if climate change issues are managed by the environmental or energy manager, and if this manager is close to the CEO. Our results support the view that the "energy efficiency paradox" can be explained by managerial factors and highlight their importance for private-sector innovation that will sustain future growth in energy efficiency. |
Keywords: | climate policy, energy efficiency, firm behavior, management practices, manufacturing,microdata, organizational structure |
JEL: | M20 M14 Q41 Q54 Q58 |
Date: | 2010–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1039&r=env |
By: | Mason, Michael |
Date: | 2010–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:lselon:http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/30763/&r=env |
By: | Ana Espinola-Arredondo; Huan Zhao (School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University) |
Abstract: | This paper analyzes how a tax/subsidy policy affects consumers? behavior when choosing between green (pollution free goods) and conventional products and its effects on welfare when some consumers have strong preferences for green goods. We develop a three stage complete information game, using the Hotelling?s linear city model. We show that when products are identical in all respects except in their environmental properties, a tax/subsidy policy performs better than the case without policy. Our efficiency comparisons suggest that under a setting of horizontal product differentiation a tax/subsidy (either on consumers or polluting ?firms) produces higher social welfare than the absence of policy. Moreover, the proportion of consumers who prefer green products affects the welfare gains from a subsidy or tax policy. |
Keywords: | Green products, environmental policy, horizontal product differentiation |
JEL: | H23 L5 Q58 |
Date: | 2011–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsu:wpaper:espinola-9&r=env |
By: | Janine De Fence (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Maggie Koerth-Baker (Freelance Writer and Editor, Wiley & Sons.); Karen Turner (Division of Economics, University of Stirling); Cathy Xin Cui (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde.) |
Abstract: | Greenhouse gas (and other pollutant) emissions from energy use are now taken to be a problem both internationally and for individual national and regional governments. A number of mechanisms are being employed to reduce energy consumption demand as part of climate and energy policies internationally. A central policy focus is increased efficiency in the use of energy. However, the straightforward link between increased energy efficiency and reduced energy consumption has been questioned. This is due to the notion of the ‘rebound effect’. Rebound occurs when improvements in energy efficiency actually stimulate the direct and indirect demand for energy in production and/or consumption. It is triggered by the fact that an increase in the efficiency in the use of energy acts to reduce the implicit price of energy, or the price of effective energy services for each physical unit of energy used. Thus, it is an economic phenomenon. The rebound effect implies that measures taken to reduce energy use might lead to increases in carbon emissions, or at least not offset them to the extent anticipated. It is possible to distiguish between direct rebound effects in energy consumption in the activity where energy efficiency has increased, indirect rebound effects from income and substitutuion effects and economy-wide rebound effects (impacts on macro-level energy use). This paper attempts to provide a non-technical overview of work on the latter, carried out under an ESRC-funded project investigating the source and magnitude of econom-wide rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in the UK. |
Keywords: | General equilibrium, energy efficiency, rebound effects, disinvestment. |
JEL: | D57 D58 R15 Q41 Q43 |
Date: | 2011–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:1107&r=env |
By: | Gary Koop (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Lise Tole (Edinburgh University, Business School) |
Abstract: | In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated ?nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite different from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic modelaveraging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coe¢ cients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire forecasting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical benefits with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market. |
Keywords: | Bayesian, carbon permit trading, financial markets, state space model, model averaging |
JEL: | C53 C24 |
Date: | 2011–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:1110&r=env |
By: | James Roumasset (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa and University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization); Christopher Wada (University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization) |
Abstract: | Optimal recycling of minerals can be thought of as an integral part of the theory of the mine. In this paper, we consider the role that wastewater recycling plays in the optimal extraction of groundwater, a renewable resource. We develop a two-sector dynamic optimization model to solve for the optimal trajectories of groundwater extraction and water recycling. For the case of spatially increasing recycling costs, recycled water serves as a supplemental resource in transition to the steady state. For constant unit recycling cost, recycled wastewater is eventually used as a sector-specific backstop for agricultural users, while desalination supplements household groundwater in the steady state. In both cases, recycling water increases welfare by shifting demand away from the aquifer, thus delaying implementation of costly desalination. The model provides guidance on when and how much to develop resource alternatives. |
Keywords: | Renewable resources, dynamic optimization, groundwater allocation, wastewater reuse, recycling, reclamation, water quality |
JEL: | Q25 Q28 C6 |
Date: | 2011–05–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201106&r=env |
By: | MORITA Tamaki; MANAGI Shunsuke |
Abstract: | Eco-labeling systems for fish and fishery products provide the fishery industry with incentives to conserve marine resources and protect the environment. Under these systems, unlike command-and-control fishery management mechanisms, the fishery industry voluntarily controls their catch. By choosing products labeled as ecologically friendly, consumers can also help promote sustainable fisheries. <br /><br />Despite Japan being a major fishing and fish-consuming country, the system is still in its infancy. One reason may be that Japanese consumers are not aware of the fisheries' harmful ecological impacts and the relationship of these impacts with their seafood consumption. Would Japanese consumers change their consumption patterns if they knew which of the fish available in the supermarkets, were being overfished?<br /><br />We devised a web survey that included discrete choice conjoint analysis. We investigated what kind of information influences consumers' awareness of overfishing, and also what affects consumers' preferences regarding eco-labeled seafood. Our study revealed that Japanese consumers are willing to choose seafood based on eco-labeling when they: understand the role of eco-labeling, encounter reliable information about the item's relationship with marine resources, and know that a reliable organization is responsible for the labels. This result supports the idea of designing a feasible eco-labeling mechanism in Japan. |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:10037&r=env |
By: | Amani Elobeid (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Miguel Carriquiry (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Jacinto F. Fabiosa (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Kranti Mulik (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Dermot J. Hayes (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Jerome Dumortier; Francisco Rosas |
Abstract: | This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions. |
Keywords: | afforestation, energy price, ethanol tax credit, fertilizer, partial equilibrium model, policy analysis. |
Date: | 2011–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:11-wp524&r=env |
By: | Emilio Padilla Rosa (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Juan Antonio Duro Moreno (Department of Economics and CREIP, Univ. Rovira i Virgili) |
Abstract: | The design of European mitigation policies requires a detailed examination of the factors explaining the unequal emissions in the different countries. This research analyzes the evolution of inequality in CO2 per capita emissions in the European Union (EU-27) in the 1990–2006 period and its explanatory factors. For this purpose, we decompose the Theil index of inequality into the contributions of the different Kaya factors. The decomposition is also applied to the inequality between and within groups of countries (North Europe, South Europe, and East Europe). The analysis shows an important reduction in inequality, to a large extent due to the smaller differences between groups and because of the lower contribution of the energy intensity factor. The importance of the GDP per capita factor increases and becomes the main explanatory factor. However, within the different groups of countries the carbonization index appears to be the most relevant factor in explaining inequalities. |
Keywords: | CO2 emissions, emission inequality, European Union, Kaya factors, Theil index. |
Date: | 2011–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1107&r=env |
By: | Juan Antonio Duro Moreno (Department of Economics and CREIP, Univ. Rovira i Virgili); Emilio Padilla Rosa (Department of Applied Economics, Univ. Autónoma de Barcelona) |
Abstract: | In this study, we analyse the degree of polarisation—a concept fundamentally different from that of inequality—in the international distribution of CO2 emissions per capita in the European Union. It is analytically relevant to examine the degree of instability inherent to a distribution and, in the analysed case, the likelihood that the distribution and its evolution will increase or decrease the chances of reaching an agreement. Two approaches were used to measure polarisation: the endogenous approach, in which countries are grouped according to their similarity in terms of emissions, and the exogenous approach, in which countries are grouped geographically. Our findings indicate a clear decrease in polarisation since the mid-1990s, which can essentially be explained by the fact that the different groups of countries have converged (i.e. antagonism among the CO2 emitters has decreased) as the contribution of energy intensity to between-group differences has decreased. This lower degree of polarisation in CO2 distribution suggests a situation more conducive to the possibility of reaching EU-wide agreements on the mitigation of CO2 emissions. |
Keywords: | CO2 emissions, distribution of emissions, European Union, mitigation agreements, polarisation. |
Date: | 2011–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea1106&r=env |
By: | Mukherjee, Vivekananda (Department of Economics, Jadavpur University); Ramani, Shyama V. (UNU-MERIT, and Ecole Polytechnique Paris) |
Abstract: | The present paper examines how an innovating firm decides between two forms of voluntary agreements (VA) in a context, where a non-governmental organization (NGO) rather than a regulator watches over citizens' interests. The innovation generates profit and consumer surplus as well as environmental damage. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) within the innovation process is considered in terms of a redistribution of profit towards community development, with or without additional abatement efforts via a VA. Bargaining between firm and NGO yields the amount allocated to community development. The model demonstrates that the firm's choice of VA hinges on the tradeoffs between appropriating the full innovation profit and paying a higher lump sum towards community development or sacrificing some of the innovation profit by lowering innovation effort, but gaining in terms of paying a lesser amount towards community development. CSR with abatement is unlikely in the case of radical innovations. There is also a clear divergence of interests between the firm, the NGO and the State for some parameter configurations, which are duly identified. |
Keywords: | Corporate social responsibility, voluntary agreements, community development, donations, innovation |
JEL: | M14 O32 O33 |
Date: | 2011 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2011016&r=env |
By: | Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish |
Abstract: | The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4 percent in 2020 from 2.4 percent in 2009. A doubling of oil price in 2020 from its baseline level, or a 230 percent increase from the 2009 level, would increase the global biofuel penetration in 2020 to 12.6 percent. The penetration of biofuels is highly sensitive to the substitution possibility between biofuels and their fossil fuel counterparts. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through diversion of food commodities and cropland toward the production of biofuels. |
Keywords: | Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Economics,Markets and Market Access,Renewable Energy,Food&Beverage Industry |
Date: | 2011–06–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5673&r=env |