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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Peter Russ (IPTS - Joint Research Centre - [Commission européenne]); Patrick Criqui (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - [CNRS : FR2664] - [Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II]) |
| Abstract: | Long-term outlooks are key tools for policy design in the energy sector. These outlooks should also include scenarios considering active policies that address the challenge of climate change. Consequently such a CO2 emission reduction scenario was analysed as a case study within the ACROPOLIS project. This paper presents a method to derive regional emission targets that correspond to an emission trajectory that stabilises carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, within a concentration target set at 550 ppmv. In a next step, the impact of emission reduction on the structure of the future energy system is briefly analysed using the POLESworld energy model. Finally, some key indicators are compared with the results from other world energy models used in the ACROPOLIS project to analyse the same emission reduction scenario. While the emission reduction compared to the baseline is significant, the resulting necessary adaptations in terms of energy and carbon efficiencies lie within the ranges observed in the past. It is demonstrated that the defined “soft landing” emission reduction scenario would under the assumption of emission trading produce permit prices that are not extremely high. Though forecasted effect of CO2 emission reduction on the energy system is quite different across models, the marginal reduction costs<br />broadly coincide across the participating models. This especially is true when taking into account the different reduction efforts caused by different levels of emissions in the baseline. |
| Keywords: | Post-Kyoto targets ; model comparison ; energy outlook |
| Date: | 2006–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00078489_v1&r=env |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - [CNRS : UMR8568] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales][Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts][Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées]); Pierre Matarasso (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - [CNRS : UMR8568] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales][Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts][Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées]) |
| Abstract: | Les modèles « intégrés » économie-énergie-climat sont des modèles numériques interdisciplinaires destinés à étudier ces questions d'impact, d'adaptation et de réduction du changement climatique. Ils visent à traduire les débats discursifs sur la précaution en faisceaux d'arguments logiquement organisés, basés sur des connaissances scientifiques mesurables. Ils sont construits dans l'espoir de permettre aux citoyens, aux instances de décision nationales et internationales de prendre des décisions mieux informées. Les modèles intégrés sont le socle d'une accumulation de connaissances qui nous permettront d'explorer une vaste gamme de situations possibles et de nous préparer ainsi à de nombreuses éventualités, tant du côté des évolutions climatiques que de celui des manières de réduire les émissions anthropiques. |
| Keywords: | modélisation intégrée, énergie, climat, économie |
| Date: | 2006–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00078623_v1&r=env |
| By: | Lionel Ragot (MEDEE et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Katheline Schubert (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The Kyoto Protocol, which came in force in February 2005, allows countries to resort to "supplementary activities" consisting particularly in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils. Existing papers studying the optimal carbon sequestration recognize the importance of the temporality of sequestration, but overlook the fact that it is a dissymmetric dynamic process. This paper takes explicitly into account the temporality of sequestration. Its first contribution is technical : we solve an optimal control problem with two stages and a dissymmetric dynamic process. The second contribution is empirical : we show that the error made when sequestration is supposed immediate can be very significant, and we exhibit numerically the optimal path of sequestration /de-sequestration for specific benefit, damage and cost functions, and a calibration that mimics roughly the world conditions. |
| Keywords: | Environment, agriculture, carbon sequestration, Kyoto Protocol, optimal control. |
| JEL: | C61 H23 Q01 Q15 |
| Date: | 2006–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v06040&r=env |
| By: | Hubert Kempf (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); stéphane Rossignol (Université de Versailles et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the relationship between inequality and the environment in a growing economy from a political economy perspective. We consider an endogenous growth economy, where growth generates pollution and a deterioration of the environment. Public expenditures may either be devoted to supporting growth or abating pollution. The decision over the public programs is done in a direct democracy, with simple majority rule. We prove that the median voter is decisive and show that inequality is harmful for the environment : the poorer the median voter relative to the average individual, the less she will tax and devote resources to the environment, preferring to support growth. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, growth, environmental policy, political economy |
| JEL: | D3 O4 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v06045&r=env |
| By: | Gilbert E. Metcalf |
| Abstract: | Efforts to reduce carbon emissions significantly will require considerable improvements in energy intensity, the ratio of energy consumption to economic activity. Improvements in energy intensity over the past thirty years suggest great possibilities for energy conservation: current annual energy consumption avoided due to declines in energy intensity since 1970 substantially exceed current annual domestic energy supply. While historic improvements in energy intensity suggest great scope for energy conservation in the future, I argue that optimistic estimates of avoided energy costs due to energy conservation are likely biased downward. I then analyze a data set on energy intensity in the United States at the state level between 1970 and 2001 to disentangle the key elements of energy efficiency and economic activity that drive changes in energy intensity. |
| JEL: | Q4 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12272&r=env |
| By: | Mahul, Olivier; Jamin, Luis; Ghesquiere, Francis |
| Abstract: | Cost-benefit analysis is a standard tool for determining the efficiency of planned projects. But one of the major difficulties in risk mitigation investments is that benefits are by nature uncertain. In this context, the standard approach relying on the average value of benefits may provide an incomplete picture of the efficiency of the risk mitigation project under consideration. This paper presents a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis relying on a catastrophe risk model. It produces risk metrics such as the exceedance probability curve of the benefit-cost ratio, thus providing the decisionmaker with a more complete risk analysis of the net benefits of the project. This is illustrated with the earthquake vulnerability reduction project in Colombia. |
| Keywords: | Insurance & Risk Mitigation,Investment and Investment Climate,Banks & Banking Reform,Natural Disasters,Non Bank Financial Institutions |
| Date: | 2006–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3939&r=env |
| By: | Kari Alho |
| Keywords: | climate policies, economic growth, R&D |
| JEL: | Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2006–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1024&r=env |
| By: | Jörg Eggers (Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Luisenstr. 56, D-10099 Berlin); Lutz Laschewski; Christian Schleyer |
| Abstract: | With regard to agri-environmental schemes under Regulation (EC) No. 1257/1999 in Europe a rather divers uptake as well as a lack of effectiveness and efficiency of these current schemes can be observed. In contrast to most of the related literature, we suggest that the ineffectiveness and inefficiency is inherent to the way those schemes are currently institutionalised in the framework of European agricultural policies. The paper draws on ex-periences made within the GRANO research project on "Approaches for Sustainable Agricultural Production in Northeast Germany". Among other sub-projects, round tables, so-called Agri-Environmental Forums (AEF), were installed in two districts in Brandenburg to integrate local actors directly into the process of designing and implementing local agri-environmental schemes in order to improve their economic and ecological efficiency. While the participants were successful in designing such local scheme, it did not become part of the Rural Development Plan in Brandenburg. Based on this case study, we argue that the process of designing agri-environmental schemes in Germany can be conceptualised as a rather complex negotiation process at Laender level. The institutional settings in which this negotiation process takes place shape the possible outcomes and, thus, the design of the schemes. With only "passive support" for decentralised and participatory approaches, yet compulsory complex bureaucratic procedures on part of the EU, there are no incentives for the administration at Laender level to actively support those approaches. Further, it can not be expected that the lack of effectiveness and efficiency can be wiped out completely from the current European Agri-environmental Policy framework. Therefore, we have to drop the assumption that agri-environmental issues in general can be solved through agri-environmental schemes alone. |
| Date: | 2004–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hah:icardp:0404&r=env |