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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Lee, Kenneth; Miguel, Edward; Wolfram, Catherine |
| Abstract: | In recent years, electrification has re-emerged as a key priority in low-income countries, with a particular focus on electrifying households. Yet the microeconomic literature examining the impacts of electrifying households on economic development has produced a set of conflicting results. Does household electrification lead to measurable gains in living standards or not? Focusing on grid electrification, we discuss how the divergent conclusions across the literature can be explained by differences in methods, interventions, potential for spillovers, and populations. We then use experimental data from Lee, Miguel, and Wolfram (2019) — a field experiment that connected randomly-selected households to the grid in rural Kenya— to show that impacts can vary even across individuals in neighboring villages. Specifically, we show that households that were willing to pay more for a grid electrification may gain more from electrification compared to households that would only connect for free. We conclude that access to household electrification alone is not enough to drive meaningful gains in development outcomes. Instead, future initiatives may work better if paired with complementary inputs that allow people to do more with power. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2019–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt51b9d62q&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Early 2021, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade released for public discussion the draft Power Development Plan VIII describing how the country will produce its electricity for the next ten years. Focused on developing gas-fired power, the draft reuses a renewable energy development strategy elaborated six years ago. That strategy was ambitious then but is now outdated by an ongoing solar and wind boom. Obsolete before publication, the draft fails to plan the ongoing energy transition which is all about PV, wind, storage, transport electrification, and increasing climate policy goals. To remain relevant in the energy transition era, quinquennial planning has to become more agile. |
| Keywords: | Planning,Energy Transition,Vietnam |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03197064&r= |
| By: | Geoffrey L. Cueto; Francis Aldrine A. Uy; Keith Anshilo Diaz |
| Abstract: | General Santos City, as the tuna capital of the Philippines, relies with the presence of tricycles in moving people and goods. Considered as a highly-urbanized city, General Santos City serves as vital link of the entire SOCKSARGEN region's economic activities. With the current thrust of the city in providing a sustainable transport service, several options were identified to adopt in the entire city, that includes cleaner and better transport mode. Electric tricycle is an after sought alternative that offers better choice in terms of identified factors of sustainable transport: reliability, safety, comfort, environment, affordability, and facility. A literature review was conducted to provide a comparison of cost and emission between a motorized tricycle and an e-tricycle. The study identified the existing tricycle industry of the city and reviewed the modal share with the city's travel pattern. The survey revealed a number of hazards were with the current motorized tricycle that needs to address for the welfare of the passengers and drivers. The study favors the shift to adopting E-tricycle. The model derived from binary logistics regression provided a 72.72% model accuracy. Based from the results and findings, electric tricycle can be an alternative mode of public transport in the city that highly support sustainable option that provides local populace to improve their quality of life through mobility and economic activity. Further recommendation to local policy makers in the transport sector of the city include the clustering of barangays for better traffic management and franchise regulation, the inclusion of transport-related infrastructure related to tricycle service with their investment planning and programming, the roll out and implementation of tricycle code of the city, and the piloting activity of introducing e-tricycle in the city. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.08182&r= |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nguyen Son (NEU - National Economics University (Ha Noi, Vietnam), ABIES Doctoral School - ABIES Doctoral School) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the reduction of electricity poverty in Vietnam from 2008 to 2018 using national household surveys. We find that in 2018, the fraction of households with access to electricity was over 98% (up from 96.5% in 2010). The median level of electricity usage was 139 kWh per month per household (up from 74 kWh in 2010), enough to access high power appliances like a washing machine or microwave. The electricity bill weighted less than 6% of income for 92.1% of households (down from 97.7% in 2010). In statistical terms, the electricity consumption distribution was closer to uniform than the income distribution: energy inequality is lower than income inequality. In 2014, the fraction of households declaring unsatisfied electricity needs was below three per cent. Few households cannot afford to turn on fans or air conditioner during a heatwave. The engineering, economic and socio-political perspectives converge to indicate that electricity poverty was not an acute social issue in 2018. Vietnam has mostly satisfied the universal electricity access facet of the Sustainable Development Goal 7: Affordable and clean energy for all (SDG7). The electricity subsidy mechanism contributes more to alleviating poverty (SDG1) than to SDG7 |
| Keywords: | Electricity poverty,Vietnam,Sustainable Development Goals,Indicators Q41,Q48,Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-03160911&r= |
| By: | James H. Stock; Daniel N. Stuart |
| Abstract: | To reliably achieve deep decarbonization of the US power sector, a candidate policy must perform robustly across a range of possible future trajectories of demand, fossil fuel prices, and prices of new wind and solar capacity. Using a modified version of the NREL ReEDS model with scenarios that span different trajectories of demand, fuel prices, and technology costs, we find that some recently proposed policies can robustly achieve 80% decarbonization (relative to 2005 emissions) or more by 2035, but many do not. The two robustly successful policies are a tradeable performance standard (TPS) and a hybrid Clean Electricity Standard (CES) with a 100% clean target, partial crediting of gas generation, and a $40/mton CO2 alternative compliance payment (ACP) backstop. Both are nearly as cost effective as the emissions-equivalent efficient policy. A $40 carbon tax nearly achieves the robust 80% threshold and, in most scenarios, drives deep decarbonization. A 90% CES (without partial crediting) fails to achieve robust 2035 decarbonization because it need not drive coal out of the system. Simply extending renewable energy tax credits, which are set to expire, does not drive significant decarbonization in most scenarios, nor does relying on increased ambition in green-leaning states. |
| JEL: | H23 Q48 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28677&r=all |
| By: | Dirk van Seventer |
| Abstract: | Myanmar's economy has experienced political and economic transformations since 2011 by means of diverse economic reforms. However, the power sector is still struggling to fulfil electricity demand. This study will examine aspects of the electricity sector in an economy-wide perspective by means of multiplier analysis based on a recent Social Accounting Matrix for Myanmar. |
| Keywords: | economy-wide perspective, Social Accounting Matrix, Multiplier effects, Electricity, Myanmar, Economy-wide modelling, Electric utilities |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-62&r= |
| By: | Kin G. Olivares; Cristian Challu; Grzegorz Marcjasz; Rafal Weron; Artur Dubrawski |
| Abstract: | We extend the neural basis expansion analysis (NBEATS) to incorporate exogenous factors. The resulting method, called NBEATSx, improves on a well performing deep learning model, extending its capabilities by including exogenous variables and allowing it to integrate multiple sources of useful information. To showcase the utility of the NBEATSx model, we conduct a comprehensive study of its application to electricity price forecasting (EPF) tasks across a broad range of years and markets. We observe state-of-the-art performance, significantly improving the forecast accuracy by nearly 20% over the original NBEATS model, and by up to 5% over other well established statistical and machine learning methods specialized for these tasks. Additionally, the proposed neural network has an interpretable configuration that can structurally decompose time series, visualizing the relative impact of trend and seasonal components and revealing the modeled processes' interactions with exogenous factors. |
| Keywords: | Deep learning; NBEATS and NBEATSx models; Interpretable neural network; Time series decomposition; Fourier series; Electricity price forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C45 C51 C53 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2021–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2107&r= |
| By: | Flávio Menezes (School of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia); Vivian Figer (Center of Studies in Infrastructure Regulation, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); Fernanda Jardim (Center of Studies in Infrastructure Regulation, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); Pedro Medeiros (Center of Studies in Infrastructure Regulation, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 has led to substantial societal and economic changes. Social distancing, both voluntary and government-mandated through quarantine or lockdowns, became necessary to reduce the speed of transmission. Governments re- sponded with substantive policies to support businesses that had to shut down and workers who were unable to work from home. Here, we show how hourly electricity consumption data, available with a 2-to-5-day lag, can be used to track economic ac- tivity during the pandemic in Brazil. Our electricity consumption indicator fell 6.9% during the rst three and a half months since the introduction of social distancing requirements on March 16th, with the sharpest decline of 14.61% occurring in April. By using monthly consumption data, our electricity consumption indicator shows a decline of 17.27% and 25.52% for the industrial and commercial sectors, respectively, while there is no signigicant e ect in the residential sector over the same period. |
| Date: | 2021–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:641&r=all |
| By: | Chakraborty, Debapriya; Buch, Koral; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | While plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption has been rising over the past decade, with PEVs making-up about 7.8% of California’s new vehicle sales in 2019, the trend needs to quickly accelerate for the state to reach its goals of 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by 2035 and a zero-carbon economy by 2045. California has various incentive programs to encourage PEV adoption, but policymakers expect to phase these incentives out as PEVs reach cost parity with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Comparing the total cost of ownership—purchase price, operational costs, and resale value—of PEVs or other ZEVs with that of conventional vehicles can inform policy decisions about incentive programs and inform consumers’ purchase decisions, by accounting for PEVs’ higher purchase prices but lower fuel and maintenance costs. Recent research has estimated that cost parity between PEVs and conventional vehicles will be achieved over the next decade. However, the timeline depends on each study’s assumptions about technology improvement and travel behavior. These studies often assign a single total cost of ownership to a specific vehicle model, ignoring the fact that costs can vary across households based on the type of vehicle adopted, travel behavior, access to charging and refueling facilities, gasoline and electricity prices, and other factors. Researchers at the University of California, Davis estimated PEVs’ total cost of ownership for the period of 2020–2030, their cost-competitiveness with conventional vehicles, and consequently the cost of electrification of California’s fleet of more than 30 million light-duty vehicles. The researchers analyzed six market segments, defined by household income and housing type, to account for the heterogeneity in total cost of ownership. The cost of electrification analysis also included fuel cell electric vehicles and was extended out to 2045 to align with California’s emission reduction goals. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Total cost of ownership, zero emission vehicles, teardown analysis, market segments |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8wz0c90f&r= |
| By: | Hardman, Scott; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | California has set an ambitious goal of 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035. Most consumer research to date has focused on understanding the factors influencing the initial purchase of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). But for the market introduction of PEVs, which include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), to be successful, subsequent vehicle purchases by initial adopters need to continue to be PEVs rather than conventional vehicles. Discontinuance, the act of abandoning a new technology after once being an adopter, could make achieving California’s goal more challenging. Researchers at the University of California, Davis surveyed California PEV buyers two to seven years after they first purchased their electric vehicle to understand whether they have continued to choose PEVs with subsequent purchases, and if not, what factors may have led to their discontinuance of the technology. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicle, market, consumers, survey |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5s738624&r= |
| By: | Brown, Austin L.; Sperling, Daniel; Austin, Bernadette; DeShazo, JR; Fulton, Lew; Lipman, Timmothy; Murphy, Colin; Saphores, Jean Daniel; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this report is to provide a research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway to achieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045. The report comprises thirteen sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 discusses the impacts the COVID-19 pandemic has had on transportation. Section 3 discusses California’s current transportation-policy landscape. These three sections were previously published as a synthesis report. Section 4 analyzes the different carbon scenarios, focusing on “business as usual” (BAU) and Low Carbon (LC1). Section 5 provides an overview of key policy mechanisms to utilize in decarbonizing transportation. Section 6 is an analysis of the light-duty vehicle sector, section 7 is the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors, section 8 is reducing and electrifying vehicle miles traveled, and section 9 is an analysis of transportation fuels and their lifecycle. The following sections are an analysis of external costs and benefits: section 10 analyzes the health impacts of decarbonizing transportation, section 11 analyzes equity and environmental justice, and section 12 analyzes workforce and labor impacts. Finally, future research needs are provided in section 13. The study overall finds that cost-effective pathways to carbon-neutral transportation in California exist, but that they will require significant acceleration in a wide variety of policies. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Greenhouse gases, carbon emissions, decarbonization, transportationpolicy, environmental policy, policy analysis, trucks, vehicle miles of travel, social equity, environmental justice, alternate fuels, labor force |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3np3p2t0&r= |
| By: | Chiu, Sam |
| Abstract: | California has long been a global leader in clean energy and climate policy, and it has demonstrated how industrial economies can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while supporting strong economic growth and promoting equitable and just outcomes. In September 2018, Executive Order B-55-18 set a target for the state to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. The University of California Institute of Transportation Studies (UC ITS) produced the first comprehensive research report analyzing the policy options that could put California’s transportation sector on a path to be carbon-neutral by 2045 while also centering equity, health, and workforce impacts. The report, summarized in this brief, presents a study conducted by 23 researchers from the four branches of the UC ITS located at UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Davis, and UCLA. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8934k2ps&r= |
| By: | Claudiu Albulescu (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Michel Mina (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Cornel Oros (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | We provide a new investigation of the relationship between oil and stock prices in the context of the outbreak of the new coronavirus crisis. Specifically, we assess to what extent the uncertainty induced by COVID-19 affects the interaction between oil and the United States (US) stock markets. To this end, we use a wavelet approach and daily data from February 18, 2020 to August 15, 2020. We identify the lead-lag relationship between oil and stock prices, and the intensity of this relationship at different frequency cycles and moments in time. Our unique findings show that co-movements between oil and stock prices manifest at 3-5-day cycle and are stronger in the first part of March and the second part of April 2020, when oil prices are leading stock prices. The partial wavelet coherence analysis, controlling for the effect of COVID-19 and US economic policy-induced uncertainty, reveals that the coronavirus crisis amplifies the shock propagation between oil and stock prices. |
| Keywords: | oil prices,stock prices,new coronavirus,COVID-19,economic policy uncertainty,wavelets,time-frequency domain,partial wavelet analysis JEL codes: Q41 |
| Date: | 2021–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03194648&r= |
| By: | Mark Sommer (WIFO); Franz Sinabell; Gerhard Streicher |
| Abstract: | In dem vorliegenden Bericht wird ein methodischer Zugang vorgestellt, der es gestattet, die Auswirkungen von Änderungen der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Österreich auf die Emission von Treibhausgasen (THG) zeitnah sichtbar zu machen. Dieses Werkzeug, dessen Kern die Input-Output-Tabelle der österreichischen Volkswirtschaft ist, wird angewendet, um die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Krise im Jahr 2020 und die vom WIFO prognostizierte Erholung der Wirtschaft in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 auf die THG-Emissionen zu bestimmen. Den Schätzungen zu Folge sind die THG-Emissionen im Jahr 2020 um mehr als 7% im Vergleich zum Jahr 2019 gesunken. Im Jahr 2021 dürften sie gegenüber 2020 um 2% ansteigen und der Anstieg 2022 gegenüber 2021 wird 3,7% betragen. Im Jahr 2022 dürften die Treibhausgasemissionen folglich noch um knapp 2 Mio. t niedriger als 2019 sein und somit etwas niedriger als 1990, dem Basisjahr des Kyoto-Protokolls (78,4 Mio. t. CO2-Äquivalente). In den Berechnungen sind Landnutzung, deren Änderung und Forstwirtschaft ausgeklammert. Verglichen mit der WIFO-Prognose zum Wirtschaftswachstum im Lockdown-Szenario für 2021 von +1,5% und +4,7% im Jahr 2022 weicht der erwartete Anstieg der Emissionen somit deutlich ab. Die unterschiedlichen Änderungsraten sind darauf zurückzuführen, dass die Herstellung von Waren, die emissionsintensive Sektoren umfasst, bereits 2021 stärker wachsen werden und Sektoren mit geringeren Emissionen wie die Gastronomie und Beherbergung erst 2022 aufholen werden. |
| Keywords: | Treibhausgasemission, Prognose, Österreich |
| Date: | 2021–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2021:i:628&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Haitao |
| Abstract: | Consumption is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study theoretically analyzes how trade liberalization and consumption tax affect firm locations across countries and GHG emissions originating from consumption. Introducing consumption-originated emissions in a standard footloose capital model, we find several novel results that extend previous analyses of production-originated GHG emissions. First, trade liberalization has a non-monotonic effect on global emissions; that is, as trade costs decline, global emissions initially decrease and then increase. Second, consumption taxes cause carbon leakage; that is, the tax on one country reduces emissions in that country, while increasing it in the rest of the world. Third, optimal consumption taxes that maximize global welfare must be neutral about firm location decisions. In particular, even if firms are asymmetrically distributed across countries in the absence of a consumption tax, the optimal tax level must be identical across countries. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric market sizes, Consumption pollution, Consumption tax harmonization, Footloose capital model, Trade liberalization |
| JEL: | F18 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-106&r= |
| By: | Semieniuk, Gregor; Taylor, Lance; Rezai, Armon; Foley, Duncan |
| Abstract: | Reducing energy demand has become a key mechanism for limiting climate change, but practical problems with large energy savings in a growing global economy and, importantly, in its lower-income parts remain. Using new energy-GDP data, we show that adopting the same near-term low-energy growth trajectory in all regions in IPCC scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5°C presents an unresolved policy challenge. We discuss this challenge of combining energy demand reductions with robustincome growth for the 6.4 billion people in middle and low income countries in light of economic development’s reliance on industrialisation. Our results highlight the importance of addressing limits to energy demand reduction in integrated assessment modelling when regional economic development is powered by industrialization and instead exploring faster energy supply decarbonization. Insights from development economics and other disciplines could help generate plausible assumptions given the financial, investment and stability issues involved. |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus045:8085&r= |
| By: | Canepa, Alessandra; Fontana, Magda; Chersoni, Giulia (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate whether households’ environmental and financial concerns have any effect on their energy-saving investments. Exploiting a comprehensive dataset covering thirty European countries we investigate if financially concerned and environmentally minded households feature different adoption paths. The results show that environmental and financial concerns play an important role in the decision of adopting energy saving technologies, thus paving the way for policy actions targeted at enhancing consumer awareness. Our analysis also revealed that environmentally and financially concerned households exhibit different socio-economic profiles. We find that environmentally minded, highly educated households living in urban areas with large family size are more likely to adopt than their counterparts with low level of education living in rural areas. On the other side, income is an important factor explaining adoption of economically concerned household. From the methodological point of view our analysis is based on both parametric and non-parametric methods. Namely, we use stochastic dominance analysis to rank distribution functions of household behaviour and the logit model to investigate the socio-economic profile of different groups. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:202109&r= |
| By: | Clément Bonnet (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles); Gondia Sokhna Seck (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles); Emmanuel Hache (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles); Marine Simoën (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles); Samuel Carcanague (IRIS - Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to assess the impact of copper availability on the energy transition and to answer the question whether copper could become critical to the power and the transport sectors due to the high copper content of low-carbon technologies compared to conventional technologies. In order to assess the copper availability by 2055, we rely on our linear programming world energy-transport model, TIAM-IFPEN. We conduct two climate scenarios (2°C and 4°C) with two mobility scenarios implemented with a recycling chain. The penetration of low-carbon technologies in the transport and energy sectors (electric vehicles and low-carbon power generation technologies) tends to significantly increase copper demand by 2055. In order to investigate how the tension over copper resources can be reduced in the energy transition context, we consider several public policy drivers: a sustainable mobility and recycling practices. Results show that in the most stringent scenario, 96.1% of the copper resources known in 2010 have to be extracted. They also pinpoint the importance of China and Chile in the future copper market evolution. |
| Keywords: | Copper,Bottom-up modeling,Energy transition,Transport sector,Power sector,Recycling |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03192499&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel Bovari (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Victor Court (IFP School, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles) |
| Abstract: | Because energy is usually absent from modern growth analysis, Unified growth models designed to study the economic take-off process have tended to focus on the role of human capital accumulation and its interaction with technical change. However, prominent economic historians claim that the transition to coal and its use in steam engines was the main driver of the Industrial Revolution. In order to try to reunite these diverging point of views, we provide in this article a quantitative analysis of the role of energy in long-term growth, accounting for the interaction between human capital accumulation and technological change. To do so, we design a unified growth model featuring fertility and educational choices, energy resources extraction, directed technical change, and endogenous general purpose technologies (GPTs) diffusion. The associated energy transition results from the endogenous shortage in the availability of renewable resources (wood), and the arrival of new GPTs that, together, redirect technical change towards the exploitation of previously unprofitable exhaustible energy (coal). A calibrated version of the model replicates the historical episode of the British Industrial Revolution, for which counterfactual simulations are performed to characterize the impact of the energy transition on the timing and magnitude of the economic take-off. Another numerical exercise provides a comparative analysis of Western Europe and Eastern Asia, emphasizing the relevance of discrepancies in terms of energy resources accessibility to explain the diverging dynamics of these two world regions. Our findings show that, whenever demographic dynamics and human capital accumulation are accounted for, energy use appears as a vital catalyst for the economic take-off process. |
| Keywords: | Unified Growth Theory,Directed Technical Change,Energy Transition,Demographic Transition |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03192958&r= |
| By: | Hildegart Ahumada; Magdalena Cornejo |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effect of the Amazon deforestation on global climate variables: surface temperature, carbon dioxide and methane concentrations over the last fifty years. Our results show the Amazon deforestation effect on carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere since 1990. No similar effect is found for methane concentrations. |
| Keywords: | climate change, deforestation, Amazon, gas emission |
| JEL: | Q2 C3 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4332&r=all |
| By: | Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta (Department of Human and Social Sciences, University of Naples L’Orientale, Naples, Italy); Stefano Ghinoi (Department of International Business and Economics, University of Greenwich, London, UK); Matteo Masotti (Department of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy); Francesco Silvestri (Department of Communication and Economics, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the evolution over time of the economics literature devoted to climate change. The analysis is based on 1974-2021 data extracted from the Scopus database and focuses on the publication outlets included in the first quartile of the “Economics, Econometric, and Finance†SCImago Ranking. We inspect the size and the impact of this economics literature, the geographical pattern of its production, and we provide a content analysis based on the keywords associated with the documents analysed. This study provides a detailed overview of the (still limited) interest that economists demonstrate for climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change, economic research, bibliometric analysis |
| JEL: | Q50 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0321&r=all |
| By: | Zabrocki, Léo (Paris School of Economics - EHESS); Leroutier, Marion; Bind, Marie-Abèle |
| Abstract: | Local environmental organizations and media have recently expressed concerns over air pollution induced by maritime traffic and its potential adverse health effects on the population of Mediterranean port cities. We explore this issue with unique high-frequency data from Marseille, France’s largest port for cruise ships, over the 2008- 2018 period. Using a new pair-matching algorithm designed for time series data, we create hypothetical randomized experiments and estimate the variation in air pollutant concentrations caused by a short-term increase in cruise vessel traffic. We carry out a randomization-based approach to compute 95% Fisherian intervals (FI) for constant treatment effects consistent with the matched data and the hypothetical intervention. At the hourly level, cruise vessels’ arrivals increase concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) by 4.7 μg/m³ (95% FI: [1.4, 8.0]), of sulfur dioxide (SO2) by 1.2 μg/m³ (95% FI: [-0.1, 2.5]), and of particulate matter (PM10) by 4.6 μg/m³ (95% FI: [0.9, 8.3]). At the daily level, cruise traffic increases concentrations of NO2 by 1.2 μg/m³ (95% FI: [-0.5, 3.0]) and of PM10 by 1.3 μg/m³ (95% FI: [-0.3, 3.0]). Our results suggest that well-designed hypothetical randomized experiments provide a principled approach to better understand the negative externalities of maritime traffic. |
| Date: | 2021–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:v7ctk&r= |
| By: | Katsumasa Tanaka; Christian Azar; Olivier Boucher; Philippe Ciais; Yann Gaucher; John Hassler; Daniel J. A. Johansson |
| Abstract: | Andrijevic et al. (Policy Forum, 16 October 2020, p.298) claim that "low-carbon investments to put the world on an ambitious track toward net zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century are dwarfed by currently announced COVID-19 stimulus funds." We argue that this short-sighted and public investment-led view misrepresents the grand challenges that climate change entails. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.08342&r= |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel |
| Abstract: | Der Digitalisierung wird ein großes Potential zur Senkung des Energieverbrauchs und der damit einhergehenden Umwelteffekte zugeschrieben. Die in diesem Beitrag zusammengetragene empirische Evidenz deutet jedoch darauf hin, dass damit häufig lediglich geringe Effekte einhergehen. So fallen die Energieeinsparwirkungen von Smart-Home- und Smart-Metering-Technologien eher moderat aus und bewegen sich im niedrigen einstelligen Prozentbereich. Dementsprechend gering sind auch die mit der Energieeinsparung verbundenen Umwelteffekte. In Bezug auf den Ausstoß an Kohlendioxid sind wegen des Wasserbetteffektes gar keinerlei Minderungseffekte in Sektoren zu erwarten, die in den EU-Emissionshandel integriert sind. Dieser Beitrag argumentiert, dass in Kombination mit der Etablierung von Mautsystemen die größten Effekte in dem noch nicht in den EU-Emissionshandel integrierten Sektor Verkehr zu erwarten sein dürften. |
| Keywords: | Treibhausgasemissionen,Energieeinsparung,Rebound-Effekt |
| JEL: | D20 Q30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:143&r= |
| By: | Howard Kunreuther; Anna Polise; Quinlyn Spellmeyer |
| Abstract: | Solar power is now economically competitive with fossil fuels in many countries, yet relatively few homeowners have installed solar panels on their property. A principal reason for this behavior stems from cognitive biases—such as myopia, inertia and herding—that cause consumers to avoid investing in long-term measures, even those that are financially attractive to them and produce social benefits such as reducing the long-term consequences of climate change. A behavioral risk audit can demonstrate ways to address these cognitive biases, in concert with short-term economic incentives and social influences. We focus on the installation of solar panels, an issue that has relevance to residents in the United States and the European Union, and to property owned by businesses and governments. |
| JEL: | H31 Q42 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28678&r=all |
| By: | Vu, Son T.; Le, Tam T.; Nguyen, Chi N. L.; Le, Duong T.; Le, Phuc H.; Truong2, Ha K. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of COVID-19’s new cases and stimulus packages on the daily stock returns of five key economic sectors (Finance, Fast-moving-consumer-goods (FMCG), Healthcare, Oil and Gas, and Telecommunication) in Vietnam – one of the best countries in the world for handling COVID-19. The research team uses the Pool OLS method, with the panel data of 11 342 observations from 107 listed firms in these five sectors in the period January-June 2020. The key findings are (i) all sectors’ stock returns are negatively affected by daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19, the hardest hit is on the financial sector, followed by FMCG, healthcare, oil and gas, and telecommunications sectors. Vietnam did not have many affected cases, but low average income makes investors and consumers more careful and hesitate to spend/invest; (ii) in contrast to prior studies, stimulus packages did not accelerate the growth of stock returns in all sectors, with the order from most to least negatively affected: finance, oil and gas, telecommunication, healthcare, and FMCG. The slow implementation made investors skeptical of the growth potential of firms, they assess the stimulus packages as the signs of economic downturn. This fact leads to different recommendations for the Vietnamese Government in combating COVID-19. |
| Date: | 2021–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:z573c&r= |
| By: | Florian Perrotton (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Olivier Massol (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School, University of London [London]) |
| Abstract: | In poor developing countries, the discovery of large gas deposits often stimulates the public authorities' appetite for ambitious development strategies requiring the construction of a large national pipeline system. However, the foreign private investors financing its installation usually prefer smaller infrastructure designs that are solely intended to supply a few creditworthy industrial sites. Focusing on the situation in Mozambique, we examine whether the adoption of rate-of-return (RoR) regulation can reconcile these conflicting objectives. As a first step, we assess the magnitude of the overcapitalization generated ex ante at the planning stage by the application of RoR regulation (i.e., the Averch-Johnson effect) to the investors. Then, analyzing the ex post situation when the enlarged domestic demand materializes, we prove that the allowable rate of return can be set by the regulator to obtain ex ante the degree of overcapitalization needed ex post to serve the enlarged demand in a cost-efficient manner. We finally discuss whether RoR regulation can still protect society from monopoly prices when it is tuned to prompt an optimal degree of building ahead of proven demand. |
| Keywords: | Buildingahead of demand,Overcapitalization,Natural gas,Pipeline,Regulatory economics,Developing countries,Mozambique |
| Date: | 2019–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03192508&r= |
| By: | Josué Barrera-Santana (Universidad de La Laguna and CEDESOG.); Gustavo A. Marrero (Universidad de La Laguna and CEDESOG.); Luis A. Puch (Universidad Complutense de Madrid and ICAE.); Antonia Díaz (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the path to the green transition in Europe. In so doing, we implement an empirical model of dynamic panel data on a sample of sixteen Western European countries over the period 1980 to 2019. The model is consistent with various features of neo- classical growth theory incorporating energy use. Our focus is on the short-run determinants of carbon emissions within that set of countries. We provide evidence that the relationship between economic activity and CO2 emissions is strong in economies where economic booms depend on energy intensive sectors. Also, the mitigating role of renewable energy technologies is key when energy intensity rebounds. These circumstances may constitute a challenge for the climate transition goals targeted in the EU’s Recovery Plan, whose main objective at this very moment is to mitigate the economic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic. |
| Keywords: | CO2 Emissions; Energy; Business Cycles; Panel Data. |
| JEL: | C23 Q43 Q5 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2107&r= |
| By: | Ramón E. López; Roberto Pastén; Pablo Gutiérrez C. |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of economic uncertainty on environmental pollution. We show conditions under which an increase of economic uncertainty raises pollution. The results depend on the consumers’ level of risk aversion and prudence behavior, as well as on the elasticity of substitution between pollution and conventional inputs. Under several widely used specifications for preferences and production technologies, we show that, given available empirical evidence about the parameters characterizing these specifications, a damning vicious cycle between increasing economic uncertainty and pollution is likely to occur. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp500&r= |
| By: | Deepa Dhume Datta; Benjamin K. Johannsen; Robert J. Vigfusson |
| Abstract: | We analyze the recent behavior of oil and equity prices in the context of our earlier work, Datta, et al. (2021), which focuses on the previous zero lower bound (ZLB) episode, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. We find that the correlation between oil and equity returns and the responsiveness of these returns to macroeconomic surprises are perhaps elevated relative to normal times but somewhat moderated relative to the previous ZLB episode. |
| Date: | 2021–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-04-14&r= |
| By: | Louis Daumas (CIRED - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech) |
| Abstract: | The transition to a low-carbon economy will entail sweeping transformations of energy and economic systems. To such an extent that a growing literature has been worrying about the effect of such strain on the stability of financial system. This "financial transition risk" literature has highlighted that the conjunction of climate policy, technological change and changing consumption patterns may propagate to financial markets. If too brutal or unexpected, such dynamics may result in a "Climate-Minsky" moment of systemic implications. Yet, recent historical developments have shown that financial markets can prove resilient to shocks onto transition-exposed industries such as fossil fuel producers. Should we thus fear transition risks? To answer this question, I propose a critical review of the relevant applied modelling and econometric literatures. Three sub-fields will be examined: the asset stranding literature, the financial econometrics of the low-carbon transition and the direct assessment of transition risks through prospective models. I will expound some key results of these literatures, and critically assess underlying methodologies. |
| Keywords: | Review, Stranded Assets, Financial Stability, , |
| JEL: | G01 Q50 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2021.05&r= |
| By: | Jiawen Luo (School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China); Riza Demirer (Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026-1102, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa); Qiang Ji (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on forecasting the realized volatility of oil and gold by (i) utilizing the Infinite Hidden Markov (IHM) switching model within the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) framework to accommodate structural breaks in the data and (ii) incorporating, for the first time in the literature, various sentiment indicators that proxy for the speculative and hedging tendencies of investors in these markets as predictors in the forecasting models. We show that accounting for structural breaks and incorporating sentiment-related indicators in the forecasting model does not only improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance of volatility models but also has significant economic implications, offering improved risk-adjusted returns for investors, particularly for short-term and mid-term forecasts. We also find evidence of significant cross-market information spilling over across the oil, gold, and stock markets that also contributes to the predictability of short-term market fluctuations due to sentiment-related factors. The results highlight the predictive role of investor sentiment-related factors in improving the forecast accuracy of volatility dynamics in commodities with the potential to also yield economic gains for investors in these markets. |
| Keywords: | Crude oil, realized volatility forecast, Infinite Hidden Markov model, structural break, speculation |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202130&r=all |
| By: | Andrew Hook (SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research - University of Sussex); Victor Court (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, Institut Louis Bachelier); Benjamin Sovacool (SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research - University of Sussex); Steven Sorrell (SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research - University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | Information and communication technologies (ICTs) increasingly enable employees to work from home and other locations (‘teleworking'). This study explores the extent to which teleworking reduces the need to travel to work and the consequent impacts on economy-wide energy consumption, with clear implications for climate, energy, and environmental policy. Methods/Design: This review assesses how changes in working practices are associated with different forms of teleworking, including the use of different ICTs, various commuting/travel options, and different working spaces such as offices, cafes, libraries, and homes. To do so, it conducts a review of more than 9,000 published articles. Review results/Synthesis: Overall, the review finds that 26 out of 39 relevant studies indicate that teleworking causes a reduction in energy use, and only eight studies indicate that teleworking leads to an increase (or only a neutral impact) on energy use. The main source of energy savings is via the substitution effect whereby teleworking leads to lower average vehicle distance travelled by those who telework either part of the week. The studies estimated that potential reductions in energy consumption as a result of reduced commuting travel could be as high as 20%. Other studies suggest possible energy savings through lower office energy consumption. Discussion: Despite the generally positive verdict on teleworking as an energy-saving practice, analysis reveals that there are numerous uncertainties and ambiguities about the actual or potential benefits of teleworking. These relate to questions about exactly what proportion of workers or frequency of teleworking is needed to bring a net reduction in energy use through avoided work travel. They also relate to questions about the extent to which teleworking may lead to unpredictable increases in non-work travel and home energy consumption that end up outweighing any gains from reduced work travel. |
| Keywords: | systematic review,teleworking,telecommuting,digital economy,energy,climate change |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03192905&r= |
| By: | Amina Baba (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDA-CGEMP - Centre de Géopolitique de l’Energie et des Matières Premières - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Anna Creti (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDA-CGEMP - Centre de Géopolitique de l’Energie et des Matières Premières - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique); Olivier Massol (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School, University of London [London]) |
| Abstract: | We examine the profitability of flexible routing by LNG cargoes for a single supplier taking into account uncertainty in the medium-term dynamics of gas markets. First, we model the trajectory of natural gas prices in Asia, Northern America, and Europe using a Threshold Vector AutoRegression representation (TVAR) in which the system's dynamics switches back and forth between high and low regimes of oil price volatility. We then use the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) obtained from the estimated threshold model to analyze the effects of volatility shocks on the regional gas markets dynamics. Lastly, the valuation of destination flexibility in LNG supplies is conducted using a real option approach. We generate a sample of possible future regional price trajectories using Monte Carlo simulations of our empirical model and determine for each trajectory the optimal shipping decisions and their profitability. Our results portend a substantial source of profit for the industry and reveal future movements of vessels. We discuss the conditional impact of destination flexibility on the globalization of natural gas markets. |
| Keywords: | LNG arbitrage,destination flexibility option,volatility,TVAR,Monte Carlo simulation |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03192881&r= |
| By: | Kustova, Irina; Egenhofer, Christian; Núñez Ferrer, Jorge; Popov, Julian |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 crisis has laid bare the vulnerability of coal regions. Economic recovery and associated funding, as well as the need for new low-carbon solutions, offers a unique opportunity to address the transition of coal regions. The combination of worsening economics of coal and the increasingly universal move towards carbon neutrality makes redeveloping coal regions a priority. The EU is home to a large number of successful coal region transitions, many of which are ongoing. In one way or another, long-term environmental, sustainable and low-carbon technologies and business solutions are becoming a central element of the transition. Special Economic Zones (SEZ) are geographically limited areas where companies’ operations are governed by specific rules on taxation, public funding for infrastructure, simplified planning procedures, the provision of specialised business services and attractive living and working conditions. They can play a decisive role in accelerating the economic development of regions affected by economic decline or stagnation. Effective planning and programming, good governance and the engagement of local stakeholders and the local economy are preconditions for attracting long-term sustainable private investment. Getting governance right has proved to be one of the key determinants of successful transition. Public funding will also be required, but only as one of the enabling tools, for example to build infrastructure, clean up sites for training and retraining and, more generally, to ease the transition.The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility together with EU budgetary sources, based on the Territorial Just Transition Plans for example, will be able to provide sufficient public money to catalyse private investment where regional plans are sufficiently developed. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:32801&r= |
| By: | Rösemann, Claus; Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Vos, Cora; Dämmgen, Ulrich; Döring, Ulrike; Wulf, Sebastian; Eurich-Menden, Brigitte; Freibauer, Annette; Döhler, Helmut; Schreiner, Carsten; Osterburg, Bernhard; Fuß, Roland |
| Abstract: | The report at hand (including a comprehensive annex of data) serves as additional document to the National Inventory Report (NIR) on the German green house gas emissions and the Informative Inventory Report (IIR) on the German emissions of air pollutants (especially ammonia). The report documents the calculation methods used in the German agricultural inventory model Py-GAS-EM as well as input data, emission results and uncertainties of the emission reporting submission 2021 for the years 1990 - 2019. In this context the sector Agriculture comprises the emissions from animal husbandry, the use of agricultural soils and anaerobic digestion of energy crops. As required by the guidelines, emissions from activities preceding agriculture, from the use of energy and from land use change are reported elsewhere in the national inventories. The calculation methods are based in principle on the international guidelines for emission reporting and have been continuingly improved during the past years by the Thünen Institute working group on agricultural emission inventories, partly in cooperation with KTBL. In particular, these improvements concern the calculation of energy requirements, feeding and the N balance of the most important animal categories. In addition, technical measures such as air scrubbing (mitigation of ammonia emissions) and digestion of animal manures (mitigation of emissions of methane and laughing gas) have been taken into account. For the calculation of emissions from anaerobic digestion of animal manures and energy crops (including spreading of the digestate), the aforementioned working group developed, in cooperation with KTBL, a national methodology. [...] |
| Keywords: | Emission inventory,agriculture,livestock husbandry,agricultural soils,anaerobic digestion,energy crops,renewable primary products,greenhouse gases,air pollutants,methane,laughing gas,ammonia,particulate matter,Emissionsinventar,Landwirtschaft,Tierhaltung,landwirtschaftliche Böden,anaerobe Vergärung,Energiepflanzen,nachwachsende Rohstoffe,Treibhausgase,Luftschadstoffe,Methan,Lachgas,Ammoniak,luftgetragene Partikel,Staub |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:84&r= |
| By: | Francis Declerck (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School); Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School); Frédéric Lantz (IFP School, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of biodiesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gasoil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy. The EU policy has enhanced biodiesel production since 2006. Biodiesel prices are impacted by the EU policy as well as rapeseed and oil prices which have fluctuated a lot over the last decade. An econometric analysis was performed using monthly data from November 2006 to January 2016. However, tests for structural breaks show several changes in price behavior. This leads us to estimate a regime-switching model which reveals two main regimes for the biodiesel price pattern. When oil prices are high, biodiesel, rapeseed and diesel oil prices are related, mainly driven by oil prices. When oil prices are low, biodiesel prices are mostly related to rapeseed prices according to EU regulations requiring the of biodiesel and gasoil. |
| Keywords: | structural changes,oil market,biofuel,switching regime model |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03193880&r= |
| By: | Ale-Chilet, Jorge; Chen, Cuicui; Li, Jing; Reynaert, Mathias |
| Abstract: | We study collusion among rms in response to imperfectly monitored environmental regulation. Firms improve market prots by shading pollution and evade noncompliance penalties by shading jointly. We quantify the welfare eects of alleged collusion among three German automakers to reduce the size of diesel exhaust uid (DEF) tanks, an emission control technology used to comply with air pollution standards. We develop a structural model of the European automobile industry (2007-2018), where smaller DEF tanks create more pollution damages, but improve buyer and producer surplus by freeing up valuable trunk space and reducing production costs. We nd that choosing small DEF tanks jointly reduced the automakers' expected noncompliance penalties by at least 560 million euros. Antitrust and noncompliance penalties would reach between 1.46 and 14.63 billion euros to remedy the welfare damages of the alleged collusion. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125488&r= |
| By: | Frédéric Babonneau (ORDECSYS, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez [Santiago]); Ahmed Badran (Qatar University); Maroua Benlahrech (Qatar University); Alain Haurie (ORDECSYS, University of Geneva [Switzerland], HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal); Maxime Schenckery (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Marc Vielle (EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an assessment of long-term climate strategies for oil and gas producing countries – in particular, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states– as regards the Paris agreement goal of limiting the increase of surface air temperature to 2°C by the end of the 21st century. The study evaluates the possible role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies under an international emissions trading market as a way to mitigate welfare losses. To model the strategic context, one assumes that a global cumulative emissions budget will have been allocated among different coalitions of countries – the GCC being one of them – and the existence of an international emissions trading market. A meta-game model is proposed in which deployment of CDR technologies as well as supply of emission rights are strategic variables and the payoffs are obtained from simulations of a General Equilibrium model. The results of the simulations indicate that oil and gas producing countries and especially the GCC countries face a significant welfare loss risk, due to "unburnable oil" if a worldwide climate regime as recommended by the Paris agreement is put in place. The development of CDR technologies, in particular Direct Air Capture (DAC) alleviates somewhat this risk and offers these countries a new opportunity for exploiting their gas reserves and the carbon storage capacity offered by depleted oil and gas reservoirs. |
| Keywords: | GCC countries,Climate negotiations,Carbon dioxide removal,Financial compensation,Negative emissions,CDR technologies. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03191544&r= |
| By: | Chiara Falduto (OECD); Sina Wartmann |
| Abstract: | Under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) of the Paris Agreement, Parties will be required to report information on national GHG inventories using a set of Common Reporting Tables (CRTs). The CRTs can provide an important source of data at the international and national levels. While a final set of tables has not yet been agreed upon, there is an emerging convergence around the view that the Common Reporting Format (CRF) tables that Annex I Parties currently use to report national GHG inventories could serve as a starting point for the development of CRTs. To support ongoing discussions, this paper provides details on the structure and functions of the existing CRF tables and the CRF Reporter software used to generate the tables, as well as some countries’ experiences with using this current system. To facilitate the transition towards reporting using CRTs, the paper also provides an overview of other tools that could support countries in reporting GHG inventories through CRTs and outlines a set of key issues that could be considered in the transparency negotiations. The paper concludes that the use of CRF tables and a CRF Reporter reduces the reporting burden on Parties – and that this could also be a significant benefit of CRTs and a CRT reporter. The paper also highlights that countries’ experience shows that effective IT arrangements can facilitate the reporting process but that as developing countries have no prior experience with the use of CRF tables and the CRF Reporter, the transition to a new CRT system may need capacity-building support, including for setting up suitable IT arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Enhanced Transparency Framework, GHG inventories, Paris Agreement, reporting, UNFCCC |
| JEL: | F53 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaab:2021/01-en&r= |