|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Gregor Semieniuk; Victor M. Yakovenko |
| Abstract: | Ambitious scenarios of carbon emission redistribution for mitigating climate change in line with the Paris Agreement and reaching the sustainable development goal of eradicating poverty have been proposed recently. They imply a strong reduction in carbon footprint inequality by 2030 that effectively halves the Gini coefficient to about 0.25. This paper examines feasibility of these scenarios by analyzing the historical evolution of both weighted international inequality in CO2 emissions attributed territorially and global inequality in carbon footprints attributed to end consumers. For the latter, a new dataset is constructed that is more comprehensive than existing ones. In both cases, we find a decreasing trend in global inequality, partially attributed to the move of China from the lower to the middle part of the distribution, with footprints more unequal than territorial emissions. These results show that realization of the redistributive scenarios would require an unprecedented reduction in global inequality far below historical levels. Moreover, the territorial emissions data, available for more recent years up to 2017, show a saturation of the decreasing Gini coefficient at a level of 0.5. This observation confirms an earlier prediction based on maximal entropy reasoning that the Lorenz curve converges to the exponential distribution. This saturation further undermines feasibility of the redistributive scenarios, which are also hindered by structural tendencies that reinforce carbon footprint inequality under global capitalism. One way out of this conundrum is a fast decarbonization of the global energy supply in order to decrease global carbon emissions without relying crucially on carbon inequality reduction. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2004.00111&r=all |
| By: | Troon, Benedict |
| Abstract: | Kenya is one of the countries in the world with a good quantity of wind. This makes the country to work on technologies that can help in harnessing the wind with a vision of achieving a total capacity of 2GW of wind energy by 2030. The objective of this research is to find the best three-parameter wind speed distribution for examining wind speed using the maximum likelihood fitting technique. To achieve the objective, the study used hourly wind speed data collected for a period of three years (2016 – 2018) from five sites within Narok County. The study examines the best distributions that the data fits and then conducted a suitability test of the distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The distribution parameters were fitted using maximum likelihood technique and model comparison test conducted using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values with the decision rule that the best distribution relies on the distribution with the smaller AIC and BIC values. The research showed that the best distribution is the gamma distribution with the shape parameter of 2.071773, scale parameter of 1.120855, and threshold parameter of 0.1174. A conclusion that gamma distribution is the best three-parameter distribution for examining the Narok country wind speed data |
| Date: | 2021–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:africa:bhuv2&r=all |
| By: | Fremeth, Adam R.; Holburn, Guy L. F.; Piazza, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | We examine how social activism—in the form of public protests against contentious business practices—can spill over into the regulatory domain, extending beyond activists’ articulated goals to affect firms’ regulatory outcomes in areas that are not directly targeted. We argue that firms are likely to experience broader regulatory repercussions after activist protests because public contention invites greater scrutiny of firm behavior by industry regulators, increasing the likelihood that instances of organizational non-compliance will be discovered. Protests can also cause regulators to evaluate targeted firms more negatively in regulatory assessments, especially firms with less favorable pre-existing reputations or stakeholder relations, and to tighten regulations on non-targeted issues that signal their commitment to safeguarding the public interest. We further contend that the political context within which regulatory agencies operate shapes the extent of protest spillovers: when political institutions are aligned with activist goals, and when regulators are ideologically sympathetic too, protests have a more pronounced negative impact on firms’ regulatory outcomes in non-targeted domains. We find robust support for our predictions in a statistical analysis of the impact of anti-nuclear protests – which sought to block nuclear power plant development by electric utilities – on utilities’ subsequent regulated financial rates of return on their assets. Our analysis contributes new insights to research on the indirect consequences for targeted organizations of social activism. |
| Date: | 2021–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:s39h2&r=all |
| By: | Thomas Deschatre; Olivier F\'eron; Pierre Gruet |
| Abstract: | This review presents the set of electricity price models proposed in the literature since the opening of power markets. We focus on price models applied to financial pricing and risk management. We classify these models according to their ability to represent the random behavior of prices and some of their characteristics. In particular, this classification helps users to choose among the most suitable models for their risk management problems. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.16918&r=all |
| By: | Tamara Sheldon; Rubal Dua; Omar Al Harbi (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Various subsidies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been implemented worldwide at the federal, state and regional levels. These subsidies aim to promote PEV adoption to help reduce both local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (Hardman 2019). In the United States (U.S.), the federal government began subsidizing PEVs in 2010. |
| Keywords: | Fleet fuel economy, Plug-in electric vehicles, Subsidies |
| Date: | 2021–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2021-dp04&r=all |
| By: | Amira Elayouty (Cairo University); Hala Abou-Ali (Cairo University) |
| Date: | 2021–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1456&r=all |
| By: | Anubhav Ratha; Pierre Pinson; H\'el\`ene Le Cadre; Ana Virag; Jalal Kazempour |
| Abstract: | We propose a new forward electricity market framework that admits heterogeneous market participants with second-order cone strategy sets, who accurately express the nonlinearities in their costs and constraints through conic bids, and a network operator facing conic operational constraints. In contrast to the prevalent linear-programming-based electricity markets, we highlight how the inclusion of second-order cone constraints enables uncertainty-, asset- and network-awareness of the market, which is key to the successful transition towards an electricity system based on weather-dependent renewable energy sources. We analyze our general market-clearing proposal using conic duality theory to derive efficient spatially-differentiated prices for the multiple commodities, comprising of energy and flexibility services. Under the assumption of perfect competition, we prove the equivalence of the centrally-solved market-clearing optimization problem to a competitive spatial price equilibrium involving a set of rational and self-interested participants and a price setter. Finally, under common assumptions, we prove that moving towards conic markets does not incur the loss of desirable economic properties of markets, namely market efficiency, cost recovery and revenue adequacy. Our numerical studies focus on the specific use case of uncertainty-aware market design and demonstrate that the proposed conic market brings advantages over existing alternatives within the linear programming market framework. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.12122&r=all |
| By: | Lamia Varawala; Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh; Gy\"orgy D\'an; Derek Bunn; Juan Rosell\'on |
| Abstract: | The electricity sector has tended to be one of the first industries to face technology change motivated by sustainability concerns. Whilst efficient market designs for electricity have tended to focus upon market power concerns, environmental externalities pose extra challenges for efficient solutions. Thus, we show that ad hoc remedies for market power alongside administered carbon prices are inefficient unless they are integrated. Accordingly, we develop an incentive-based market clearing design that can include externalities as well as market power mitigation. A feature of the solution is that it copes with incomplete information of the system operator regarding generation costs. It is uses a network representation of the power system and the proposed incentive mechanism holds even with energy limited technologies having temporal constraints, e.g., storage. The shortcomings of price caps to mitigate market power, in the context of sustainability externalities, are overcome under the proposed incentive mechanism. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.00578&r=all |
| By: | Marcela Eslava |
| Abstract: | Colombia cuenta con un sistema de subsidios a la demanda final residencial de energía, que toman la forma de tarifas reducidas para ciertos grupos de la sociedad. El sistema actual de subsidios a la demanda de energía funciona primordialmente alrededor del Fondo de Solidaridad para Subsidios y Redistribución de Ingresos (FSSRI), concebido desde la Ley 142 de 1994 como un fondo de subsidios cruzados, donde los usuarios con mayor capacidad de pago subsidian a quienes no la tienen. Entre los principios del sistema tarifario para servicios públicos domiciliarios, establecidos en la mencionada Ley, hay dos de los cuales se deriva la naturaleza de subsidio cruzado del Fondo: el principio de solidaridad y redistribución, y el principio de suficiencia financiera. La focalización actual de los subsidios se basa en el sistema de estratificación: los usuarios en los estratos 1, 2 y 3 son receptores de subsidios de electricidad, mientras que aquellos en estratos residenciales 5, 6, y los usuarios comerciales, realizan contribuciones a través de una sobretasa. En gas natural domiciliario la focalización es similar, excepto que el estrato 3 no es receptor. En la actualidad es claro el FSSRI no cumple con un principio básico de focalización, según el cual los recursos de los subsidios deberían dirigirse a la población de menores ingresos. Con casi 90% de los hogares subsidiados en electricidad y 60% en gas por redes, el sistema carece de una verdadera focalización, y claramente dedica cuantiosos recursos de la Nación a subsidiar hogares que no se encuentran en condición de vulnerabilidad, algunos de los cuales incluso se ubican en el extremo superior de la distribución de ingreso. Más del 40% de los hogares en los estratos 2 y 3 se encuentran por encima de la mediana de ingreso, y más del 60% de los usuarios de energía eléctrica en el Sistema Nacional Interconectado, y del 45% en gas por redes, son receptores de estos subsidios sin encontrarse en situación de pobreza (que en la última década ha alcanzado a menos del 30% de la población). Con incontables necesidades sociales que demandarían recursos del Estado, es fundamental redirigir los recursos que hoy subsidian a una población que no lo necesita hacia usos de mayor retorno social, incluyendo financiar una necesaria expansión del cubrimiento de provisión energética a las poblaciones que hoy no la tienen. El FSSRI tampoco cumple con el principio de solidaridad y redistribución con el cual se creó. La actual estratificación socioeconómica, que concentra la casi totalidad de hogares en los estratos 1, 2 y 3 y menos del 5% de los hogares en estratos que contribuyen, implica que el Fondo es en realidad un subsidio generalizado a hogares por parte de los estratos comerciales, y por recursos de otras fuentes del presupuesto de la nación. Como consecuencia de lo anterior, y de crecientes costos promedio, el FSSRI tampoco cumple con el principio de suficiencia financiera (ley 142 de 1994), pues resulta altamente deficitario, con un desbalance que en la actualidad alcanza más de dos billones de pesos al año. Un solo año de ahorro del déficit del FSSRI, por ejemplo, sería suficiente para financiar la quinta parte de la mejora de cobertura y calidad eléctrica que se estima indispensable. La carga de este déficit, además, es asumida por las empresas distribuidoras por periodos que actualmente alcanzan seis meses. En la medida en que la filtración de subsidios a hogares no vulnerables y el elevado desbalance financiero del FSSRI se deben a la concentración casi absoluta de los hogares en estratos 1, 2 y 3 (donde hoy se ubica cerca del 90% de los hogares) la solución a la grave situación financiera del Fondo y a la filtración de subsidios a hogares que no los necesitan pasa necesariamente por un recorte del número de hogares que recibe el subsidio. Un recorte de esta naturaleza implica imponer requisitos adicionales a estar en estratos 1, 2 y 3 para que un hogar se haga receptor de estos subsidios. Esos requisitos deben buscar excluir a hogares que se encuentran más lejanos a condiciones de vulnerabilidad. Dado que no existe actualmente ni una guía legal ni un acuerdo político sobre qué fracción de la sociedad debería ser receptora de subsidios, parece razonable atar esa fracción a indicadores sobre la prevalencia de condiciones de vulnerabilidad en cada momento, de manera que no sólo se entreguen subsidios a quienes los necesitan, sino que la entrega de estas ayudas se ajuste a las cambiantes condiciones socioeconómicas del país. Una posibilidad es focalizar los subsidios de energía en los hogares que se encuentran en condiciones de pobreza, que son aquellos para quienes el actual subsidio promedio (cercano a 20.000 pesos mensuales) podría significar la diferencia entre poder acceder al servicio de energía eléctrica y no poder hacerlo, o en aquellos que más se acercan a esas condiciones. Si bien el ajuste de otros parámetros del sistema de subsidio, como las tarifas y el consumo de subsistencia, pueden mejorar la situación financiera del Fondo, tales modificaciones no le apuntan al principal problema, el de la mala focalización, y son menos efectivos aún desde el punto de vista meramente financiero... |
| Keywords: | Subsidios a la demanda de energía, Misión de Transformación Energética, Colombia, SISBEN. |
| JEL: | H20 H22 H23 |
| Date: | 2021–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019142&r=all |
| By: | Crampes, Claude; Renault, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | The producers of electricity using dispatchable plants rely on partially flexible technologies to match the variability of demand and intermittent renewables. We analyse flexibility in a two-stage decision process where production decided at the last moment is more costly than if it is planned in advance. We first determine the first best outputs, prices and gains. We then consider a model where two partially flexible firms compete in quantities to supply a random residual demand. We determine the subgame perfect equilibria corresponding to two market designs: one where all trade occurs in a spot market with known demand, the other where a day-ahead market with random demand is added to the ex-post market, first in a general setting, then using a quadratic specification. We show that when all trade occurs ex post, the least flexible firm is not necessarily disadvantaged. We also show that adding a day-ahead market makes consumers better off and firms worse off by increasing total output. It increases welfare but it also transfers risks from firms to consumers. |
| Keywords: | Flexibility; electricity; market design; production costs; risk transfer |
| JEL: | C72 D24 D47 L23 L94 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125447&r=all |
| By: | Benjamin Sch\"afer; Marc Timme; Dirk Witthaut |
| Abstract: | To ensure reliable operation of power grids, their frequency shall stay within strict bounds. Multiple sources of disturbances cause fluctuations of the grid frequency, ranging from changing demand over volatile feed-in to energy trading. Here, we analyze frequency time series from the continental European grid in 2011 and 2017 as a case study to isolate the impact of trading. We find that trading at typical trading intervals such as full hours modifies the frequency fluctuation statistics. While particularly large frequency deviations in 2017 are not as frequent as in 2011, large deviations are more likely to occur shortly after the trading instances. A comparison between the two years indicates that trading at shorter intervals might be beneficial for frequency quality and grid stability, because particularly large fluctuations are substantially diminished. Furthermore, we observe that the statistics of the frequency fluctuations do not follow Gaussian distributions but are better described using heavy-tailed and asymmetric distributions, for example L\'evy-stable distributions. Comparing intervals without trading to those with trading instances indicates that frequency deviations near the trading times are distributed more widely and thus extreme deviations are orders of magnitude more likely. Finally, we briefly review a stochastic analysis that allows a quantitative description of power grid frequency fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.14592&r=all |
| By: | Jenn, Alan |
| Abstract: | This research brief summarizes the research and findings from a University of California, Davis, study that investigated how to deploy electric vehicle charging infrastructure to meet the electricity demand coming from electric vehicles (EVs) on ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft in California. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, transportation network companies, Clean Miles Standard |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1740g5tq&r=all |
| By: | Arkadiusz Jedrzejewski; Grzegorz Marcjasz; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | Recent studies suggest that decomposing a series of electricity spot prices into a trend-seasonal and a stochastic component, modeling them independently and then combining their forecasts, can yield more accurate predictions than an approach in which the same parsimonious regression or neural network-based model is calibrated to the prices themselves. Here, we show that significant accuracy gains can be achieved also in the case of parameter-rich models estimated via the \textit{least absolute shrinkage and selection operator} (LASSO). Moreover, we provide insights as to the order of applying seasonal decomposition and variance stabilizing transformations before model calibration, and propose two well-performing forecast averaging schemes based on different approaches to modeling the long-term seasonal component. |
| Keywords: | Electricity price forecasting; Day-ahead market; LASSO; Long-term seasonal component; Variance stabilizing transformation; Forecast averaging |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C51 C53 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2021–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2104&r=all |
| By: | Bassem Haidar (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Pascal da Costa; Jan Lepoutre; Fabrice Vidal |
| Abstract: | Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions related to the transport sector towards meeting global emissions targets. Although this technology is gaining much attention, techno-economic barriers hinder the widespread of BEVs, namely the high investments, the limited autonomy, and the lack of public-charging infrastructure. A bigger battery leads simultaneously to more autonomy and higher-priced BEV, due to the battery-pack cost. Deploying more public chargers, a solution for limited autonomy BEVs, is facing other obstacles: vehicle-charger adaptability in terms of charging power, and additional investments for charging operators. Therefore, this paper aims to find the most cost-efficient solution(s) of battery capacity and charging power combination(s), considering technoeconomic factors. Based on French travel surveys data, we simulate the needs of 12 scenarios of 5,000 identical privately-purchased BEVs, by changing their battery capacity for both urban and rural areas, before determining the optimal number of charging stations. We then analyze the BEV owner and the charging operator business models in order to conclude with win-win situations for both parties. Results show cheaper investments in charging infrastructure, especially 22 kW charger, rather than in bigger batteries. For urban (rural) areas, purchasing a 35 to 50 kWh BEV (65 kWh BEV for rural) and deploying 22 and 50 kW chargers (50 kW for rural) proves the most cost-efficient and profitable solutions for both BEV owners and charging operators. We finally recommend charging operators to review their charging tariffs, and to take into account the acceptability of customer. |
| Keywords: | Battery range,Charging infrastructure,Electric vehicles,Innovative business model,Techno-economic scenarios |
| Date: | 2020–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03071656&r=all |
| By: | Jiaxiong Yao |
| Abstract: | Past studies on the relationship between electricity consumption and temperature have primarily focused on individual countries. Many regions are understudied as a result of data constraint. This paper studies the relationship on a global scale, overcoming the data constraint by using grid-level night light and temperature data. Mostly generated by electricity and recorded by satellites, night light has a strong linear relationship with electricity consumption and is correlated with both its extensive and intensive margins. Using night light as a proxy for electricity consumption at the grid level, we find: (1) there is a U-shaped relationship between electricity consumption and temperature; (2) the critical point of temperature for minimum electricity consumption is around 14.6°C for the world and it is higher in urban and more industrial areas; and (3) the impact of temperature on electricity consumption is persistent. Sub-Saharan African countries, while facing a large electricity deficit already, are particularly vulnerable to climate change: a 1°C increase in temperature is estimated to increase their electricity demand by 6.7% on average. |
| Keywords: | Electricity;Consumption;Climate change;Population and demographics;Income;Electricity consumption,temperature,night light,climate change.,WP,electricity access,electricity demand,term E |
| Date: | 2021–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/022&r=all |
| By: | Walid Matar (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential effects of real-time electricity pricing on the operations of Saudi Arabia’s power generation sector. The Kingdom currently sets fuel prices for power utilities at levels that suppress the costs of power generation. However, this analysis provides insights into the effects of a real-time electricity pricing scheme in the context of liberalized fuel prices. |
| Keywords: | Agent based modeling, Bargaining modeling, Behavior analysis, Collective decision making processes |
| Date: | 2021–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2021-dp03&r=all |
| By: | Jenn, Alan |
| Abstract: | With recent policies such as the Clean Miles Standard in California and Lyft’s announcement to reach 100% electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030, the electrification of vehicles on ride-hailing platforms is inevitable. The impacts of this transition are not well-studied. This work attempts to examine the infrastructure deployment necessary to meet demand from electric vehicles being driven on Uber and Lyft platforms using empirical trip data from the two services. The Widespread Infrastructure for Ride-hail EV Deployment (WIRED) model was developed to examine a set of case studies for charger installation in San Diego, Los Angeles, and the San Francisco Bay Area. A set of sensitivity scenarios was also conducted to measure the tradeoff between explicit costs of infrastructure versus weighting factors for valuing the time for drivers to travel to a charger (from where they are providing rides) and valuing the rate of charging (to minimize the amount of time that drivers have to wait to charge their vehicle). There are several notable findings from the study: 1) DC fast charging infrastructure is the dominant charger type necessary to meet ride-hailing demand, 2) shifting to overnight charging behavior that places less emphasis on daytime public charging can significantly reduce costs, and 3) the necessary ratio of chargers is approximately 10 times higher for EVs in Uber and Lyft compared to chargers for the general EV owning public. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, transportation network companies, Clean Miles Standard |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6vk0h1mj&r=all |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Jean Coldefy (ATEC ITS France) |
| Abstract: | Ce nouveau rapport CERRE, sur la décarbonation et la numérisation des mobilités, explique que les nouvelles technologies à elles seules ne suffiront pas à atteindre les objectifs de baisse des émissions de GES de l'UE et qu'il sera nécessaire d'adopter de nouvelles régulations. Le 9 décembre 2020, la Commission européenne a publié une communication pour «une stratégie pour une mobilité durable et intelligente», qui prévoit une réduction de 90% des émissions d'ici 2050 grâce à une mobilité intelligente et durable en Europe, avec un objectif intermédiaire de 55% d'ici 2030, soit dans 9 ans. Les auteurs Yves Crozet et Jean Coldefy affirment que les mobilités des personnes en zone urbaine occupent une place importante dans la perspective de la transition vers la neutralité carbone et la nouvelle stratégie numérique européenne. |
| Keywords: | Mobilité urbaine,AOM,Autorités organisatrices de mobilité,Technologie numériques,Régulations |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03169715&r=all |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Jean Coldefy (ATEC ITS France) |
| Abstract: | This new CERRE Mobility report, with its core themes of decarbonisation and digitalisation, explains that the use of new technology alone will not be enough to achieve the Commission's decarbonisation and digitalisation goals and that adopting broad new regulations will be necessary. On 9 December 2020, the European Commission issued a communication for "a strategy towards sustainable and smart mobility", which foresees a 90% cut in emissions by 2050 as a result of smart and sustainable mobility in Europe. Mobility for those in urban areas is important, both from the perspective of the climate neutrality target and in the context of the digital revolution. Authors Yves Crozet and Jean Coldefy argue that MaaS sits at the crossroads of the digital revolution and the transition to carbon neutrality. The report provides a digital roadmap for organising mobility authorities (OMAs). |
| Keywords: | MaaS,Urban mobility,Organising Mobility Authorities,Digital technology,Regulation |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03169744&r=all |
| By: | Jens F. Peters; Mercedes Burguillo; Jose M. Arranz |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the actual effect of a representative low-emission zone (LEZ) in terms of shifting vehicle registrations towards alternative fuel technologies and its effectiveness for reducing vehicle fleet CO2 emissions. Vehicle registration data is combined with real life fuel consumption values on individual vehicle model level, and the impact of the LEZ is then determined via an econometric approach. The increase in alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) registration shares due to the LEZ is found to be significant but fosters rather fossil fuel powered AFV and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than zero emission vehicles. This is reflected in the average CO2 emissions of newly registered vehicles, which do not decrease significantly. In consequence, while the LEZ is an effective measure for stimulating the shift towards low emission vehicles, the support of non-electric AFV as low emission vehicles jeopardizes its effectiveness for decarbonizing the vehicle fleet. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.13801&r=all |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Using monthly data for the period from 1916 to 2020, we report that geopolitical risk, when decomposed into threats and actual risk, has predictive value for tail risk in the oil market. When we study the full sample of data, we find that threats increase tail risk in the oil market, while actual acts related risk reduces tail risk at longer forecast horizons. While the findings of the full-sample analysis show that the effect of threats and acts on tail risk in the oil market is quantitatively small, results of an out-of-sample analysis show that, for several model configurations, geopolitical risks associated with threats are statistically significant predictors of tail risk in the oil market, even after controlling for a factor capturing global equity-market tail-risk spillovers. Our results have important investment implications. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, Tail risks, Geopolitical risks, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C53 G15 Q02 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202122&r=all |
| By: | Kumar, Satish; Tiwari, Aviral; Raheem, Ibrahim; Hille, Erik |
| Abstract: | We examine the energy-food nexus using the dependence-switching copula model. Specifically, we look at the dependence for four distinct market states, such as, increasing oil–increasing commodity, declining oil–declining commodity, increasing oil–declining commodity, as well as declining oil–increasing commodity markets. Our results support the argument that the crash of oil markets and agricultural commodities happen at the same time, especially during crisis period. However, the same is not true during times of normal economic conditions, implying that investors cannot make excess profits in both agricultural and oil markets at once. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the return chasing effect dominates for all commodities on maximum occasions. The CoVaR and ∆CoVaR results indicate important risk spillover from oil to agricultural markets, especially around the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodities; Oil; CoVaR; Dependence-switching copula; Tail dependence. |
| JEL: | C58 C63 G11 Q1 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106684&r=all |
| By: | Ben McWilliams; Georg Zachmann |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen is seen as a means to decarbonise sectors with greenhouse gas emissions that are hard to reduce, as a medium for energy storage, and as a fallback in case halted fossil-fuel imports lead to energy shortages. Hydrogen is likely to play at least some role in the European Union's achievement by 2050 of a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target. However, production of hydrogen in the EU is currently emissions... |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:41782&r=all |
| By: | A. Olayiwola, John (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); M. Ajide, Folorunsho (University of Ilorin, Ilorin) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates the impact of oil price, institutional quality (proxied by corruption and legal environment) and firm-implicit elements on the dividend policy of listed Nigerian companies for a period of 2001-2016. System-GMM analysis was used in the estimation process and findings revealed that oil price, quality of institutions and firm-inherent drivers play significant roles in firms’ dividend decisions. Oil price, institutional quality and firm-implicit variables exerted statistically significant influence on dividend per share. This study thus suggests, that prevailing institutional and macro-economic conditions should be considered when making dividend policy decisions and that the nation’s high corruption index poses great threats to dividend behaviors of Nigerian corporate life. |
| Keywords: | Dividend per share; Corruption; Legal System; Generalized Moment method; Oil Price Volatility; Nigeria. |
| Date: | 2019–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:decilo:0012&r=all |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa); Riza Demirer (Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026-1102, USA) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the predictive power of the global financial cycle (GFCy) over oil market volatility using the GARCH-MIDAS framework. The GARCH-MIDAS model provides an appropriate setting to forecast high frequency oil market volatility using global predictors that are only available at low frequency. We show that the global financial cycle carries significant predictive information over both oil market volatility proxies, both in- and out-of-sample. The predictive relationship is found to be positive, more strongly during the pre-GFC period, suggesting that rising global asset prices coupled with improved cross-border capital flows are associated with rising volatility in the oil market. While the GARCH-MIDAS model incorporating GFCy or any other proxy of global financial/economic conditions yields economic gains compared to the conventional GARCH-MIDAS-RV specification, especially in the pre-GFC period; the stance is found to be robust to risk aversion and leverage ratio. The economic gains observed from the GFCy-based model particularly during the pre-GFC period when world markets experienced a steady rise in global asset prices and cross-border capital flows underline the potential role of risk appetite (or behavioural factors) in forecasting applications. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating low frequency proxies of global asset market conditions can provide significant forecasting gains for energy market models, with significant implications for both investors and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Global Financial Cycle, Oil Volatility, Predictability, MIDAS models |
| JEL: | C32 C53 G15 Q02 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202121&r=all |
| By: | Sanginabadi, Bahram |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of a large and exogenous oil price shock in December 1973 on mortality rates of the major oil producer nations of the Middle East and North Africa. We use longitudinal data from 1960 to 2014 and we apply the difference-in-differences approach to investigate the main question of the research. Our findings show that the oil price shock did not lead to higher GDP per capita, but it did lead to lower mortality. These findings are puzzling. A possible explanation is that the oil price shock allowed for higher spending on publicly funded health care. We find a positive impact of the oil price increase on the number of hospital beds which perhaps suggests that higher oil revenues increased spending on public health and that possibly decreased mortality. |
| Date: | 2021–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:j2xqw&r=all |
| By: | KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic and the responses to it have had a pronounced impact on the global economy. Major consuming sectors for petrochemicals, including cars and appliances, construction and textiles, have suffered a slump in demand. The production outputs of petrochemicals also vary across regions and countries, with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and China the least affected. Slowed economic growth, increased price volatility of feedstocks, intensified geopolitics and trade barriers, growing concern over health, safety and environment (HSE) standards, among other disrupters, are driving changes in the petrochemical industry. |
| Keywords: | System flexibility, Petrochemicals |
| Date: | 2020–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2020-wb12&r=all |
| By: | Francis Declerck (ESSEC Business School Paris - Essec Business School); Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian (ESSEC Business School Paris - Essec Business School); Frédéric Lantz (IFP School, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of biodiesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gasoil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy. The EU policy has enhanced biodiesel production since 2006. Biodiesel prices are impacted by the EU policy as well as rapeseed and oil prices which have fluctuated a lot over the last decade. An econometric analysis was performed using monthly data from November 2006 to January 2016. However, tests for structural breaks show several changes in price behavior. This leads us to estimate a regime-switching model which reveals two main regimes for the biodiesel price pattern. When oil prices are high, biodiesel, rapeseed and diesel oil prices are related, mainly driven by oil prices. When oil prices are low, biodiesel prices are mostly related to rapeseed prices according to EU regulations requiring the blending of biodiesel and gasoil. |
| Keywords: | biofuel,oil market,structural changes,switching regime model |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03179984&r=all |
| By: | Piergiacomo Sabino |
| Abstract: | In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices follows a tempered stable or a CGMY driven Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process. To this end, we first calculate the characteristic function of the transition law of such processes in closed form. This result is instrumental for the derivation of non-arbitrage conditions such that the spot dynamics is consistent with the forward curve. Moreover, based on the results of Cufaro Petroni and Sabino (2020), we also conceive efficient algorithms for the exact simulation of the skeleton of such processes and propose a novel procedure when they coincide with compound Poisson processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. We illustrate the applicability of the theoretical findings and the simulation algorithms in the context of the pricing different contracts namely, strips of daily call options, Asian options with European style and swing options. Finally, we present an extension to future markets. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.13252&r=all |
| By: | Can, Muhlis; Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Brusselaers, Jan |
| Abstract: | Environmental degradation has constantly increased over the years, and has become one of the main contributors to climate change. For this reason, researchers are increasingly on the lookout for parameters that positively impact environmental quality. Green Products are widely accepted as one of the vital tools to minimize the environmental degradation. This paper introduces a new index which is called the Green Openness Index. The index represents the importance of Green Products in a region by means of a measure of trade in Green Products. This new index revisits the trade-environment nexus in a case study of 31 Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 2007-2017. The empirical findings provide evidence that Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid, by means of Fully modified and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis. As such, the new index also opens up a wide span of opportunities for future research, as the index can be used as explanatory variable in numerous different research questions and fields of research. Additionally, the results demonstrate that the presence of Green Products in trade reduces a country’s ecological footprint. This is essential information for practitioners and policy makers involved in the design of sustainable development policies. |
| Keywords: | Green Openness Index, Green Products, Environmental Friendly Products,Environmental degradation |
| JEL: | F18 O1 O44 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106730&r=all |
| By: | Douglas Nelson; Laura Puccio |
| Abstract: | US-Renewable Energy is the last in a series of WTO disputes involving subsidies schemes with local content requirements. Local content requirements (LCRs) are highly discriminatory and trade distortive instruments and therefore all cases concerning green energy have been found to violate WTO law. However, recent jurisprudence has developed a different definition of prohibited LCRs under the GATT and the SCM agreement, the latter allowing for some leeway to define origin of products under a government subsidy scheme. Depending how the subsidy scheme is framed, it will be able to be excused from the GATT’s more stringent prohibition of LCRs, this raises question of consistency in the application of the LCRs prohibition. Moreover, we review a simple and robust approach that modern welfare economics suggests for framing discussions of subsidy policy. We apply this approach to the case of renewable energy subsidies and discuss some complexities with respect to local content requirements. In conclusion, this allows us to critically assess and review proposals to increase coherence between WTO subsidy policy and green energy promotion policies and submit proposals to achieve better suited WTO subsidy rules. |
| Keywords: | Local content, subsidies, renewable energy, WTO rules, environmental policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2021/32&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Ying |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes how the Green Climate Fund (GCF) should raise and allocate funds to achieve Pareto optimality in climate governance globally and its own fiscal balance. To make the conclusion more suitable for global climate governance analysis, this study modifies the hypothesis of the public externality model constructed by Baumol and Oates. Subsequently, by comparing the Pareto optimality model of global climate governance and market equilibrium model, this study infers the unique price conditions to induce the market to satisfy Pareto-optimality requirements. Subsequently, this study deduces the rules and the possible ways that must be followed for raising capital and allocating of GCFs while considering global Pareto optimality and fiscal balance. The study observes that the equilibrium results of the international climate game will not achieve the global Pareto-optimality and the financial balance of GCF simultaneously when each country anticipates that the GCF aims to Pareto optimality in climate governance globally and its own fiscal balance. |
| Keywords: | Green Climate Fund; Capital Raising and Allocation; Global Pareto Optimality; Fiscal Balance; Mathematical Model |
| JEL: | C62 H23 P45 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106861&r=all |
| By: | Jesus Ochoa Robles (LGC - Laboratoire de Génie Chimique - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Catherine Azzaro-Pantel (LGC - Laboratoire de Génie Chimique - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Guillem Martinez Garcia (LGC - Laboratoire de Génie Chimique - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alberto Aguilar Lasserre (Instituto Tecnológico de Orizaba) |
| Abstract: | A lot of recent studies have concluded that hydrogen could gradually become a much more significant component of the European energy mix for mobility and stationary fuel cell system applications. Yet, the challenge of developing a future commercial hydrogen economy still remains through the deployment of a viable hydrogen supply chain and an increasing fuel cell vehicle market share, which allows to nar- row the existing cost difference regarding the conventional fossil fuel vehicle market. In this paper, the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, as substitutes for internal combustion engine vehicles has been evaluated from a social and a subsidy-policy perspective from 2020 to 2050. For this purpose, the best compromise hydrogen supply chain network configuration after the sequential application of an optimization strategy and a multi-criteria decision-making tool has been assessed through a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA) to determine whether the hydrogen mobility deployment increases enough the social welfare. The scientific objective of this work is essentially based on the development of a method- ological framework to quantify potential societal benefits of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The case study of the Occitania Region in France supports the analysis. The externality costs involve the abatement cost of CO2 , noise and local pollution as well as platinum depletion. A subsidy policy scenario has also been im- plemented. For the case study considered, the results obtained that are not intended to be general, show that CO2 abatement dominates the externalities, platinum is the second largest externality, yet reduc- ing the benefits obtained by the CO2 abatement. The positive externalities from air pollution and noise abatement almost reach to compensate for the negative costs caused by platinum depletion. The exter- nalities have a positive effect from 2025. Using a societal cost accounting framework with externalities and subsidies, hydrogen transition timing is reduced by four years for the example considered. |
| Keywords: | Social cost-benefit analysis,Hydrogen mobility,Fuel cell vehicles,Hydrogen supply chain |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03118656&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Nachtigall (OECD); Jane Ellis (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses quantitative estimates based on economic modelling studies of the economic and environmental benefits from different forms of international co-ordination on carbon pricing. Forms of international co-ordination include: harmonising carbon prices (e.g. through linking carbon markets), extending the coverage of pricing schemes, phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, developing international sectoral agreements, and establishing co-ordination mechanisms to mitigate carbon leakage. All forms of international co-operation on carbon pricing can deliver benefits, both economic (e.g. lower mitigation costs) and/or environmental (e.g. reducing GHG emissions and carbon leakage). Benefits tend to be higher with broader participation of countries, broader coverage of emissions and sectors and more ambitious policy goals. Most, but not all, countries gain economic benefits from international co-operation, and these benefits vary significantly across countries and regions. Complementary measures outside co-operation on carbon pricing (e.g. technology transfers) could ensure that co-operation provides economic benefits for all countries. |
| Keywords: | Border carbon adjustment, Climate change mitigation, Climate-economy-modelling, Fossil fuel subsidy reforms, Harmonising carbon prices, International Co-operation, Sectoral agreements |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:173-en&r=all |
| By: | Nicoletta Batini; Mario di Serio; Matteo Fragetta; Giovanni Melina; Anthony Waldron |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation to help inform stimulus measures for a post-COVID-19 sustainable recovery. Using a new international dataset, part of which was especially assembled for this analysis, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities—from zero-emission power plants to the protection of wildlife and ecosystems—can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. The estimated multipliers associated with green spending are about 2 to 7 times larger than those associated with non-eco-friendly expenditure, depending on sectors, technologies and horizons. These findings survive several robustness checks and suggest that ‘building back better’ could be a win-win for economies and the planet. |
| Date: | 2021–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/087&r=all |
| By: | Tarufelli, Brittany L. |
| Abstract: | The Gulf Coast has gained a foothold as a low-cost region for chemical production. In this study, I leverage the arguably exogenous shock to natural gas prices and proximity to the Port of South Louisiana as instrumental variables to identify the impact of industrial development on air pollution and respiratory morbidity. I find that a $1 decrease in natural gas prices decreased PM10 pollution by 44% of the sample average, but these effects decreased with proximity to the Port. Switching to natural gas as a feedstock improved pollution and health outcomes, but pollution exposure in industrial corridors remains an issue. |
| Date: | 2021–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4nvzd&r=all |
| By: | Geiger, Charlotte; Lehmann, Paul |
| Abstract: | With the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES) in countries all over the world, policy design to address the negative impacts of RES plants on their local and regional environment gains in importance. We analyse whether policy design should be spatially-differentiated or uniform when negative RES environmental externalities are spatially heterogeneous and display interregional cumulative effects. In a theoretical model of the RES electricity generation sector, we compare the welfare differential between both regulatory designs and analyse how it is affected by cumulative environmental effects. While we confirm that the welfare costs of attaining a RES deployment target are lower under a spatially-differentiated than a spatiallyuniform regulation, we find that the welfare costs are contingent on the presence of cumulative environmental effects. This depends on the heterogeneity of region-specific generation cost parameters and social cost parameters of RES electricity generation. If heterogeneity is more (less) pronounced in regional generation cost parameters than in regional social cost parameters, positive (negative) cumulative effects decrease the welfare costs of a uniform instrument. |
| Keywords: | environmental regulation,renewable energy subsidies,regional environmental damages,interregional environmental damages,renewable energy deployment |
| JEL: | D61 D62 H21 H23 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:12021&r=all |
| By: | Nicolas Taconet (ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Guivarch (ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antonin Pottier (EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Is climate change concerning because of its expected damages, or because of the risk that damages could be very high? Climate damages are uncertain, in particular they depend on whether the accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions will trigger a tipping point. In this article, we investigate how much risk contributes to the Social Cost of Carbon in the presence of a tipping point inducing a higher-damage regime. To do so, we decompose the eect of a tipping point as an increase in expected damages plus a zero-mean risk on damages. First, using a simple analytical model, we show that the SCC is primarily driven by expected damages, while the eect of pure risk is only of second order. Second, in a numerical experiment using a stochastic Integrated Assessment Model, we show that expected damages account for most of the SCC when the tipping point induces a productivity shock lower than 10%, the high end of the range commonly used in the literature. It takes both a large productivity shock and high risk aversion for pure risk to signicantly contribute to the SCC. Our analysis suggests that the risk aversion puzzle, which is the usual nding that risk aversion has a surprisingly little eect on the SCC, occurs since the SCC is well estimated using expected damages only. However, we show that the risk aversion puzzle does not hold for large productivity shocks, as pure risk greatly contributes to the SCC in these cases. Keywords Climate change • Tipping points • Expected utility • Integrated Assessment Models • |
| Date: | 2021–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03167567&r=all |
| By: | Jacqueline Doremus (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University); Irene Jacqz (IAI, Harvard University and Department of Economics, Iowa State University); Sarah Johnston (Department of Agricultrual and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the relationship between temperature and energy spending for both low and higher-income US households. We find both groups respond similarly (in percentage terms) to moderate temperatures, but low-income households' energy spending is half as responsive to extreme temperatures. Consistent with low-income households cutting back on necessities to afford their energy bills, we find similar disparities in the food spending response to extreme temperature. These results suggest adaptation to extreme weather, such as air conditioning use, is prohibitively costly for households experiencing poverty. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpl:wpaper:2101&r=all |
| By: | Arthur Thomas (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes); Olivier Massol (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School, University of London [London]); Benoît Sévi (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to investigate, for the first time, whether the next day's consumption of natural gas can be accurately forecast using a simple model that solely incorporates the information contained in dayahead market data. Hence, unlike standard models that use a number of meteorological variables, we only consider two predictors: the price of natural gas and the spark ratio measuring the relative price of electricity to gas. We develop a suitable modeling approach that captures the essential features of daily gas consumption and, in particular, the nonlinearities resulting from power dispatching and apply it to the case of France. Our results document the existence of a long-run relation between demand and spot prices and provide estimates of the marginal impacts that these price variables have on observed demand levels. We also provide evidence of the pivotal role of the spark ratio in the short run which is found to have an asymmetric and highly nonlinear impact on demand variations. Lastly, we show that our simple model is sufficient to generate predictions that are considerably more accurate than the forecasts published by infrastructure operators. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas markets,day-ahead prices,load forecasting |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03178474&r=all |
| By: | Cédric Clastres (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, Chaire EEM - Chaire European Electricity Markets - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Haikel Khalfallah (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Demand response programmes reduce peak-load consumption and could increase off-peak demand as a load-shifting effect often exists. In this research we use a three-stage game to assess the effectiveness of dynamic pricing regarding load-shifting and its economic consequences. We consider a retailer's strategic supplies on forward or real time markets, when demand is uncertain and with consumer disutility incurred from load-shedding or load-shifting. Our main results show that a retailer could internalize part of demand uncertainty by using both markets. A retailer raises the quantities committed to the forward market if energy prices or balancing costs are high. If the consumer suffers disutility, then the retailer contracts larger volumes on the forward market for peak periods and less off peak, due to a lower load-shifting effect and lower off-peak energy prices. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic and Stochastic Model,Electricity Markets,Load-Shifting,Disutility |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03167543&r=all |
| By: | Sosson Tadadjeu (University of Dschang , Cameroon); Henri Njangang (University of Dschang , Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Yann Nounamo (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of natural resources on wealth inequality as a first attempt on a panel of 45 developed and developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using the Generalized Method of Moments, the results provide stong evidence that natural resources increase wealth inequality within a linear empirical framework. These results are robust to the use of alternative natural resources and wealth inequality measures. Additionnaly, a nonlinear analysis provides evidence of an inverted U shaped relationship between natural resources and wealth inequality. The net effect of enhancing natural resources on wealth inequality is positive and building on the corresponding conditional negative effect, the attendant natural resource thresholds for inclusive development are provided. It follows that while natural resources increase wealth inequality, some critical levels of natural resources are needed for natural resources to reduce wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | Oil wealth; Natural resources; Wealth inequality; Sustainable development |
| JEL: | F21 F54 L71 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/019&r=all |
| By: | Cédric Clastres (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Olivier Rebenaque (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Patrick Jochem (DLR - German Aerospace Center) |
| Abstract: | Prosumers have different choices to maximize their photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption such as demand response (DR) or storage. In this paper, we investigate the prosumers' profits related to the demand response provision. An optimization model is developed which allows the prosumer to bid in DR markets. We focus on two French markets: the NEBEF and the capacity market in which a signal is provided 24h before the real-time. We show that the prosumers are encouraged to provide a DR but the profits are too low compared to the battery investment. We derive a DR premium to foster battery adoption. The premium level depends on the retail rate structure but also on the load curve uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Prosumers,Energy storage,Subsidies,Demand response markets |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03167446&r=all |
| By: | Chris Belmert Milindi (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Roula Inglesi-Lotz (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the complex relationship between carbon emissions and technological progress in a sample of 60 countries, divided into four categories based on their per capita income between the periods of 1989-2018. For robustness purposes and due to the broad definition of technology, we use six different proxies to represent technology; namely: Information and telecommunication technology (ICT); patents; public R&D expenditure; total factor of productivity (TFP); and a number of science and technology publications. After applying the fixed-effect method with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors, for the full sample, the results show that the ICT variables are a good instrument for carbon abatement, while R&D expenditure and patents do not have a clear impact on carbon emissions, TFP increases carbon emissions, and science and technology publications are negatively related to carbon emissions. The impact of the indicators on the various income levels groups of countries vary which has significant policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Technological progress, Income groups, rebound effect, fixed effect methodology with Driscoll and Kraay standards errors |
| JEL: | O30 O32 C23 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202123&r=all |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Georgina Santos (Cardiff University); Jean Coldefy (ATEC ITS France) |
| Abstract: | Urban mobility is a daily challenge. People are increasingly faced with significant time and money costs to access their workplaces and other urban amenities (school, shopping, leisure activities, etc.). The external costs of road transport (i.e. accidents, congestion, noise, air pollution, and CO2 emissions) are an important area of concern. The Paris Agreement (United Nations, 2015) commits all signatories to reducing CO2 emissions with the aim of keeping the global temperature rise this century below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Efforts are being made at national, state/provincial and local government levels. The road transport sector, which is responsible for 19% of total GHG emissions in Europe, will play an especially important role in this respect. The external costs of road transport have been scrutinised and measured for decades, and the idea of encouraging car drivers to switch to public transport has also been embedded in local transport policies across countries for a long time. Although some progress has been made, the missing piece in the puzzle has typically been linked to the disutility of changing mode, foregoing the convenience that the private car brings, and the financial problems linked to public transport provision in areas of dispersed and low demand. An answer to these problems may come via the concept of Mobility as a Service (MaaS), which today is gaining momentum in a number of countries. |
| Keywords: | Mobility as a Service,Urban mobility,Transport policies,Reducing CO2 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03169805&r=all |
| By: | Lesly Cassin (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Paolo Melindi-Ghidi (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fabien Prieur (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the impact of income inequality on environmental policy in the presence of green consumers. We develop a theory with three main ingredients: first, citizens have different income capacities; second they have access to two different commodities whose consumption differs in terms of price and environmental impact, and third, they have to vote on the environmental policy. In this setting, there exists a unique political equilibrium such that the population is split in two groups, depending on whether there is positive consumption of the green good. The analysis shows that higher income inequality is generally associated with lower public spending in environmental protection. We then test this prediction in a fixed-effect model with robust standard errors using a panel of European countries over the period 1996-2019. We indeed find that income inequality negatively affects both public expenditures in environmental protection. |
| Keywords: | income distribution,inequality,green consumption,environmental policy,probabilistic voting,political equilibrium |
| Date: | 2021–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03146526&r=all |
| By: | Sylvain Cail (Enerdata); Patrick Criqui (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to clarify the magnitude of the climate challenge we face globally and the role that the four largest greenhouse gas emitters – China, the U.S.A., the European Union and India – could potentially play, if they decided on a "deep collaboration". As stated in IPCC's 1.5°C report, the challenge is indeed to bring global emissions down to a level where they could be compensated for by anthropogenic carbon capture from the atmosphere. In this paper, we focus on the abatement of CO2 emissions as they represent two thirds of total GHG emissions3. By doing so, we recognise that confining our data to CO2 ignores other important gases (methane, nitrous oxides, fluorinated gases) and their emission dynamics. The paper proceeds along three stages. In section 2. "Where we stand, a global view", we recall the dynamics of atmospheric concentrations for two major GHGs, CO2 and methane. In section 3. "Looking back", we analyse in more detail the trends and bifurcations in the emissions for each of the four constituencies we are considering. Finally, in section 4. "Where we need to go", we analyse for the same constituencies representative scenarios that will allow us to contrast current developments with more constrained trajectories meeting the Paris commitments and, further on, net zero ambitions. |
| Keywords: | India,China,CO2 Emissions,GHG Emissions,Climate change,Europe,USA,Inde,Chine,GES,Gaz à effet de serre GES,Changement Climatique |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03160204&r=all |
| By: | Antonin Pottier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Fleurbaey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Aurélie Méjean (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We develop an integrated assessment model with endogenous population dynamics accouting for the impact of global climate change on mortality through five channels (heat, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, dengue, undernutrition). An age-dependent endogenous mortality rate, which depends linearly on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three emission scenarios (business-as-usual, 3°C and 2°C scenarios) and find that the five risks induce deaths in the range from 160,000 per annum (in the near term) to almost 350,000 (at the end of the century) in the business-as-annual. We examine the number of life-years lost due to the five selected risks and find figures ranging from 5 to 10 millions annually. These numbers are too low to impact the aggregate dynamics and we do not find significant feedback effects of climate mortality to production, and thus emissions and temperature increase. But we do find interesting evolution patterns. The number of life-years lost is constant (business-as-usual) or decreases over time (3°C and 2°C). For the stabilisation scenarios, we find that the number of life-years lost is higher today than in 2100, due to improvements in generic mortality conditions, the bias of those improvements towards the young, and an ageing population. From that perspective, the present generation is found to bear the brunt of the considered climate change impacts. |
| Keywords: | Climate change,Impacts,Integrated assessment model,Mortality risk,Endogenous population |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03048602&r=all |
| By: | Pierre Guérin; Felix Suntheim |
| Abstract: | The shutdown in economic activity due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis has resulted in a short-term decline in global carbon emissions, but the long-term impact of the pandemic on the transition to a low-carbon economy is uncertain. Looking at previous episodes of financial and economic stress to draw implications for the current crisis, we find that tighter financial constraints and adverse economic conditions are generally detrimental to firms’ environmental performance, reducing green investments. The COVID-19 crisis could thus potentially slow down the transition to a low-carbon economy. In light of the urgent need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, these findings underline the importance of climate policies and green recovery packages to boost green investment and support the energy transition. Policies that support the sustainable finance sector, such as improved transparency and standardization, could further help mobilize green investments. |
| Date: | 2021–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/089&r=all |