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on Energy Economics |
| By: | David BENATIA (CREST (UMR 9194), ENSAE, Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Clémence ALASSEUR (EDF R&D, EDF Lab Paris-Saclay); Olivier FÉRON (EDF R&D, EDF Lab Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | The pandemic's impacts on European electricity markets have been enormous, especially in countries with abundant near-zero marginal cost of production like France. This article provides an in-depth quantitative study of the impacts of the crisis on the French electricity sector. During the lockdown episode, France has experienced unparalleled demand reductions (-12%) and energy price falls (-40%) resulting in revenue losses of 1.2 billion € (-45%) for market participants. This paper argues that the observed market outcomes during the crisis are somehow indicative of outcomes in a future with abundant renewable power, where prices will fall in a more sustainable way. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition, COVID-19, Demand, Electricity Markets |
| JEL: | L94 Q02 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2020-22&r=all |
| By: | Harvey, John T.; Butt, Ali A.; Saboori, Arash; Lozano, Mark T.; Kim, Changmo; Kendall, Alissa |
| Abstract: | California state government has established a series of mandated targets for reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. With a multiplicity of emissions sources and economic sectors, it is clear that no single change the state can make will enable it to achieve the ambitious goals set by executive orders and legislation. Instead, many actors within the state’s economy—including state agencies such as the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans)—must make multiple changes to their own internal operations. The focus of this study and technical memorandum is to examine several strategic options that Caltrans could adopt to lower its GHG emissions in operating the California (CA) state highway network and other transportation assets so it can help meet the state’s GHG reduction goals. Although many GHG reduction strategies appear to be attractive, simple, and effective, most also have limitations, trade-offs, and unintended consequences that cannot be identified without a preliminary identification and examination of the full system they operate in and their full life cycle. To achieve the most rapid and cost-effective changes possible, the costs, times to implement, and difficulty of implementation should also be considered when the alternative strategies are being prioritized. This project first developed an emissions reduction “supply curve” framework by using life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate full-system life cycle environmental impacts and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) to prioritize the alternative GHG-reduction strategies based on benefit and cost. This framework was then applied to an example set of strategies and cases for Caltrans operations. This technical memorandum presents the results of the supply curve framework’s development and its application to six strategies for changing several Caltrans operations identified by the research team. The six strategies were: (1) pavement roughness and maintenance prioritization, (2) energy harvesting using piezoelectric technology, (3) automation of bridge tolling systems, (4) increased use of reclaimed asphalt pavement, (5) alternative fuel technologies for the Caltrans vehicle fleet, and (6) solar and wind energy production on state right-of-ways. A summary of the methodology and the resulting supply curve that includes all the strategies considered and ranked is published in a separate white paper. This technical memorandum provides the details, assumptions, calculation methods, and results of the development of the GHG reduction supply curve for each strategy. Although this current study’s scope is limited to development of a supply curve for GHG emissions only, there are plans to expand the study’s scope to include other environmental impacts and to develop supply curves for them as well. |
| Keywords: | Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Supply curve, life cycle assessment, life cycle cost analysis, decision support, California state level strategies, carbon reduction, greenhouse gas emissions |
| Date: | 2020–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0mx245rd&r=all |
| By: | Luo, Jinjing; Moschini, Giancarlo |
| Abstract: | We build a structural model of imperfect competition for a retail market that supplies both low-ethanol (E10) and high-ethanol (E85) gasoline blends. The model permits us to study some impacts of the E85 subsidy induced by the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, specifically how the pass-through of this subsidy to retail prices is affected by market power. The model is rooted in Hotelling's horizontal differentiation framework, which is extended to also represent the imperfect substitutability between E10 and E85 (a vertical product differentiation attribute). The model naturally captures two sources of imperfect competition in the fuel market—refueling stations' market power arising from their spatial location, and limited availability of E85 stations. We derive both analytical and numerical solutions for Nash equilibrium outcomes under various scenarios. In our baseline parameterization, when the penetration of E85 stations is incomplete, we find that the pass-through rate is about 0.7. Complete penetration of E85 stations leads to near complete pass-through, notwithstanding the market power enjoyed by stations because of their spatial location. With monopolistic market power (e.g., collusion), however, with full penetration of E85 stations the pass-through rate is lower. Moreover, when market power only arises from location differentiation (duopoly model with full penetration of E85), the pass-through rate converges to one as the subsidy gets large, whereas it converges to zero if a station has exclusivity in selling E85 (partial penetration of E85) or there is collusion/monopoly power from collusion. |
| Date: | 2019–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:201908090700001674&r=all |
| By: | Jagu, E.; Massol, O. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the deployment of a shared CO2 transportation infrastructure needed to support the combined emergence of Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Fossil energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). We develop a cooperative game-theoretic approach to: (i) examine the conditions needed for its construction to be decided, and (ii) determine the break-even CO2 value needed to build such a shared infrastructure. In particular, we highlight that, as biogenic emissions are overlooked in currently-implemented carbon accounting frameworks, BECCS and CCS emitters face asymmetric conditions for joining a shared infrastructure. We thus further examine the influence of these carbon accounting considerations by assessing and comparing the break-even CO2 values obtained under alternative accounting rules. We apply this modeling framework to a large contemporary BECCS/CCS case-study in Sweden. Our results indicate that sustainable and incentive-compatible cooperation schemes can be implemented if the value of CO2 is high enough and show how that value varies depending on the carbon accounting framework retained for negative emissions and the nature of the infrastructure operators. In the most advantageous scenario, the CO2 value needs to reach 112€/tCO2, while the current Swedish carbon tax amounts to 110€/tCO2. Overall, these findings position pragmatic policy recommendations for local BECCS deployment. |
| Keywords: | Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage; Negative emissions; CO2 transportation; infrastructure; cooperative game theory; carbon accounting |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cty:dpaper:20/15&r=all |
| By: | Simon Chazel; Sophie Bernard; Hassan Benchekroun |
| Abstract: | What are the consequences of primary mineral constraints on the energy transition? Low-carbon energy production uses green capital, which requires primary minerals. We build on the seminal framework for the transition from a dirty to a clean energy in Golosov et al. (2014) [9] to incorporate the role played by primary minerals and their potential recycling. We characterize the optimal paths of energy transition under various scenarios of mineral constraints. Mineral constraints limit the development of green energy in the long run: low-carbon energy production eventually reaches a plateau. We run our simulations using copper as the limiting mineral and we allow for its recycling. In all our scenarios, we find that allowing for mineral recycling delays by 40-60 years the plateau of green capital. After five to six decades, green energy production is 50% lower than in the benchmark model. GDP is 3-8% lower than in the infinite mineral scenario after 30 decades. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition,Green Capital,Recycling,Circular Economy,Mineral Constraint,Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model, |
| Date: | 2020–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2020s-51&r=all |
| By: | Wes Austin (Georgia State University, USA); Stefano Carattini (Georgia State University, USA); John Gomez Mahecha (Georgia State University, USA); Michael Pesko (Georgia State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between contemporaneous fine particulate matter exposure and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality using an instrumental variable approach based on wind direction. Harnessing daily changes in county-level wind direction, we show that arguably exogenous fluctuations in local air quality impact the rate of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. In our preferred high dimensional fixed effects specification with state-level policy and social distancing controls, we find that a one µg=m^3 increase in PM 2.5 increases the number of confirmed cases by roughly 2% from the mean case rate in a county. These effects tend to increase in magnitude over longer time horizons, being twice as large over a 3-day period. Meanwhile, a one µg=m^3 increase in PM 2.5 increases the same-day death rate by 3% from the mean. Our estimates are robust to a host of sensitivity tests. These results suggest that air pollution plays an important role in mediating the severity of respiratory syndromes such as COVID-19, for which progressive respiratory failure is the primary cause of death, and that policy levers to improve air quality may lead to improvements in COVID-19 outcomes. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2016&r=all |
| By: | Kasun Chandrarathna; Arman Edalati; AhmadReza Fourozan tabar |
| Abstract: | By significant improvements in modern electrical systems, planning for unit commitment and power dispatching of them are two big concerns between the researchers. Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in planning and dispatching them. In recent years, numerous works have been done on Short-term load forecasting. Having an accurate model for predicting the load can be beneficial for optimizing the electrical sources and protecting energy. Several models such as Artificial Intelligence and Statistics model have been used to improve the accuracy of load forecasting. Among the statistics models, time series models show a great performance. In this paper, an Autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) - generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model as a powerful tool for modeling the conditional mean and volatility of time series with the T-student Distribution is used to forecast electric load in short period of time. The attained model is compared with the ARIMA model with Normal Distribution. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated by applying real electric load data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). KEYWORDS: Electricity load, Forecasting, Econometrics Time Series Forecasting, SARIMA |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2009.13595&r=all |
| By: | Jaccard, Ivan; Benmir, Ghassane; Vermandel, Gauthier |
| Abstract: | Climate change is one of the biggest economic challenges of our time. Given the scale of the problem, the question of whether a carbon tax should be introduced is hotly debated in policy circles. This paper studies the optimal design of a carbon tax when environmental factors, such as air carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), directly affect agents' marginal utility of consumption. Our first result is that the optimal tax is determined by the shadow price of CO2 emissions. We then use asset pricing theory to estimate this implicit price in the data and find that the optimal tax is pro-cyclical. It is therefore optimal to use the carbon tax to \cool down" the economy during periods of booms and to stimulate it in recessions. The optimal policy not only generates large welfare gains, it also reduces risk premiums and raises the average risk-free real rate. The effect of the tax on asset prices and welfare critically depends on the emission abatement technology. JEL Classification: Q58, G12, E32 |
| Keywords: | bond premium puzzle, climate change, compensation effect, natural rate of interest, optimal policy, welfare |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202477&r=all |
| By: | Valeriya Azarova; Mathias Mier |
| Abstract: | The EU implemented the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in response to the 2008 financial crisis to deal with short-term impacts of future shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. We link a model that intertemporally optimizes the handling of banked allowances every five years with one that simulates the annual working of the EU ETS including the MSR with its potential cancelling. Neglecting the pandemic, 2.16 billion allowances are cancelled. Accounting for the pandemic, 0.28 billion additional allowances are cancelled if the European economy fully recovers by 2021, which even overcompensates the 2020 drop in CO2 emissions. Additional cancelling increases when the pandemic lasts longer, meaning that the MSR even outperforms its initial purpose. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic, EU ETS, Market Stability Reserve, decarbonization |
| JEL: | C61 H23 Q41 Q51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_338&r=all |
| By: | Andersen, Torben M.; Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Liu, Pan |
| Abstract: | Climate change policies create intergenerational winners and losers because the costs come first and the benefits later. In such cases, Kaldor-Hicks cost-benefit analysis seeks potential Pareto-improvements by showing the hypothetical potential for the winners to compensate the losers via lump-sum transfers. In their absence, once a costly climate policy is actually implemented, it unleashes distortions and general-equilibrium effects rendering unclear whether Kaldor-Hicks potential improvements lead to actual improvements. We study policies which, once implemented, would pass the Pareto test that no generation subsequent to policy action be made worse off than before. We develop a stylized climate-economy model in which production by the current generation generates pollution which “damages†production for future generations. Over time, the business-as-usual (BAU) economy gets increasingly polluted, consumption falls, and generational welfare levels decline. A government introduces costly pollution abatement and finances it via distorting taxes and the sale of debt (“green bonds†). Pollution levels start to decline, generating downstream welfare gains which may be taxed – without hurting anyone, in a Pareto sense – to help finance the policy and pay off the debt. Along the transition, every generation faces less pollution, consumes more and is happier than if life had continued in the BAU world. |
| Date: | 2020–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202003010800001070&r=all |
| By: | Derek Lemoine |
| Abstract: | I show that commonly proposed emission taxes are not optimal for controlling climate change: they can achieve zero emissions but cannot induce negative emissions. The first-best policy charges firms period by period for leaving a stock of carbon in the atmosphere, not just for injecting carbon into the atmosphere. I develop a feasible version of this policy that requires emitters to post an upfront bond that finances a transferable asset (a “carbon share”). The regulator reduces this asset's face value as damages accumulate and pays out the asset's remaining face value once its holder removes the underlying unit of carbon from the atmosphere. I show that the optimal bond is equal to the maximum possible marginal damage from climate change, with the carbon share paying a dividend as long as the worst-case is not realized. Quantitatively, a bond that is double the optimal emission tax is sufficient to provide optimal carbon removal incentives in 95% of cases. |
| JEL: | G12 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27880&r=all |
| By: | Schuenemann, Franziska; Kerr, William A. |
| Abstract: | The introduction of EU mandates for biofuel use in the transport sector initially led to high expectations that African countries would benefit from biofuel exports to the EU. This market opportunity has not been realised, however, due to regulatory requirements for the production of biofuels that act as non-tariff barriers to the acceptance of African biofuels in the EU. This benefits producers of biofuel crops and processors in the EU by providing economic protection. In particular, the EU import regime fails to acknowledge the challenges faced by African (or other) developing countries in satisfying the requirements. Using a computable general equilibrium model for Malawi, we quantify the foregone potential benefits from biofuel production for exports to the EU arising from non-tariff barriers (NTBs) embedded in the sustainability criteria. Our results show that sugarcane-ethanol production under smallholder outgrower regimes would lead to both economic growth outcomes and rural development, whereas jatropha-biodiesel fails to increase rural incomes due to low profitability. While there is widespread agreement on the latter today, our study is the first to explore the failure of jatropha in Malawi in an economy-wide framework. The ethanol results, however, also hold if land clearing is forbidden, thereby preserving biodiversity as stipulated under the sustainability criteria in the EU Renewable Energy Directive. The EU NTBs embedded in the Renewable Energy Directive thus play a much larger role for countries in Sub-Sahara Africa than simply inhibiting investment opportunities and should be refashioned to lower the entry costs for developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff barriers,biofuels,Malawi,CGE model |
| JEL: | F13 D58 O13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:224925&r=all |
| By: | Mukherjee, Paramita; Coondoo, Dipankor; Lahiri, Poulomi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, an attempt has been made to forecast the hourly electricity spot prices in India as this is very important for the bidders in the energy exchange for participating in the day-ahead market. Forecasting high frequency data is a challenging task. In forecasting, different variants of ARMA, ARMA-GARCH models are applied in different contexts, but no unequivocal dominance of a particular model exists. In this paper, based on hourly data for several years for all the regions in India, several variants of ARMAX models are estimated, by combining static and dynamic forecasts. Along with ARMA, intra-day, inter-day and hourly variations in prices as well as seasonalities on weekdays, holidays and festive days are incorporated. ARMAX models in this context performed quite well for forecasting horizons of hourly prices of upto 5 days. Interestingly, the ARMAX models provide reasonably good forecasts for day-ahead-market and the simple structure can be quite easily implemented. Such forecasts are not only essential for the players in the spot market, but also provides insights for policymakers as it reveals several aspects of Indian electricity market including the different dimensions of seasonality in demand. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, electricity, hourly data, energy, spot price, ARMAX model, day-ahead market |
| JEL: | C53 Q47 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103161&r=all |
| By: | Simonis, Udo Ernst |
| Abstract: | New Deal: Einzelne Autoren und Institute, einige Regierungen und die Vereinten Nationen haben die Wiederbelebung und das Ergrünen eines alten Begriffs propagiert - Green New Deal. Um was es dabei geht oder gehen sollte, war aber höchst heterogen. Mit der Vorlage des Konzepts eines "European Green Deal" seitens der EU-Kommission im Dezember 2019 ist eine neue Dynamik entstanden, die nun der praktischen Umsetzung harrt. |
| Keywords: | Roosevelt's New Deal,Green New Deal,European Green Deal,Entkopplung,De-Karbonisierung,De-Materialisierung,Re-Naturierung,Klimaneutralität,Kreislaufwirtschaft,schadstofffreie Umwelt,Natur-nahe Gesellschaft,New Deal (Roosevelt),Green New Deal,European Green Deal,Decoupling,Decarbonisation,Dematerialisation,Renaturation,Climate neutrality,Circular economy,Emission-free environment,Nature-based society |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeme:eme2020002&r=all |
| By: | Huang, I-Chuan; Lopes Moreira Da Veiga, María Helena; Ramos, Sofía |
| Abstract: | We analyze valuation in the energy sector using the present value model as a framework.Using a panel sample of sector indexes and firms from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom,and the United States, we find only weak evidence that prices follow the fundamentals foroil explorers and producers subsector. A variance decomposition analysis shows that mostlyshocks in discount rates, seen as investor sentiment changes and not changes in cash flows,affect valuation. Further tests detect explosive bubbles on the exploration and productionsector in the United Kingdom and in integrated subsector for Canada in the late 1990'sand around 2005 that are driven by high prices. Overall, results cast doubt on the role offundamentals and favor more the importance of bubbles in driving valuation. |
| Keywords: | Panel Unit Root Tests; Panel Cointegration; Present Value; Oil Industry; Fundamental Value; Dividend Yield; Cointegration With Breaks; Bubbles |
| JEL: | Q43 G15 |
| Date: | 2020–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:31056&r=all |
| By: | Antoine Dechezleprêtre; Daniel Nachtigall; Balazs Stadler |
| Abstract: | This study empirically assesses the impact of energy prices and environmental policy stringency (EPS) on manufacturing employment in OECD countries over the period 2000- 2014. At the sector level, increases in energy prices and in EPS have a negative and statistically significant impact on total employment in the manufacturing sector. Energy-intensive sectors are most affected, while the impact is not statistically significant for less energy-intensive sectors. Even in highly energy-intensive sectors, however, the size of the effect is relatively small. Moreover, higher energy prices increase the probability of firm exit, but they have a statistically significant and small positive effect on the employment level of surviving firms. Accelerated firm exit allows surviving firms to expand, boosting firm-level employment. Therefore, the analysis demonstrates that there exist transition costs in the short run to imposing stricter environmental policies, as some workers are forced to move away from affected firms and sectors, even if many of these job losses are unlikely to be permanent as laid-off workers may ultimately find other jobs, notably in the services sector. |
| JEL: | Q52 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1625-en&r=all |
| By: | Fetter, T. Robert; Usmani, Faraz |
| Abstract: | The shale gas revolution in the United States induced an unprecedented commodity boom across northwestern India. Leveraging population-based discontinuities in the contemporaneous roll-out of India's national rural electrification scheme, we show that access to electricity increased total employment and nonagricultural employment in villages affected by this exogenous economic shock, but had no impact on labor markets elsewhere. This combination of two natural experiments highlights how complementary economic conditions drive heterogeneity in the labor-market impacts of rural electrification. It also helps explain the large variation in the reported impacts of such resource-intensive infrastructure investments globally. |
| Keywords: | rural electrification,heterogeneous impacts,labor markets,productive use,economic development,regression discontinuity,India |
| JEL: | H54 O13 O15 O18 Q40 Q56 R23 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:864&r=all |
| By: | Vyas, Sangita; Gupta, Aashish; Khalid, Nazar |
| Abstract: | Exposure to air pollution from cooking with solid fuels has important consequences for public health. This paper focuses on rural north India, where despite robust economic growth and government subsidies, seven out of eight households mainly use solid fuels. We draw on new qualitative and quantitative data, and a recent policy environment that dramatically expanded ownership of liquid petroleum gas (LPG), to examine why households are slow to adopt clean fuels in rural north India. We ?nd that patriarchal gender norms and attitudes encourage the use of solid fuels in this region. North Indian society confers low status to women, promotes women's seclusion, and constrains women's engagement in economic activities outside of the home. These beliefs encourage women to preserve gas, promote women's work that facilitates the use of solid fuels, and hinder communication between the cook and the decision-maker regarding LPG re?fills. When rural north Indian households use gas, it is frequently to facilitate the adherence to norms of seclusion that prevent women from leaving the home to collect solid fuels. Future research and policy interventions should pay careful attention to the gender norms and attitudes that discourage the use of gas. Addressing these beliefs is essential to sustained LPG use and health improvements. |
| Date: | 2020–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3v4cj&r=all |
| By: | Ghazouani, tarek |
| Abstract: | This study re-examines the long-run relationship among foreign direct investment (FDI), renewable energy consumption (RE) and economic growth (GDP) for 9 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period 1990–2015 using a newly developed cointegration test by McNown et al. (2018), the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) which allows us to generate critical values for ARDL tests that are valid and appropriate for the specific data sets used and allow for endogeneity and feedback that may exist among the variables. In the long run analysis, we found evidence of cointegraion: (i) for Algeria, Armenia, Mauritania, and Tunisia when GDP is the dependant variable; (ii) for Egypt, Iran, Israel, Tunisia and Turkey when FDI is the dependent variable; and (iii) only for Iran, Morocco, and Tunisia when RE is the dependent variable. The short run Granger-causality analysis reveals varied nature of direction of causality between all variables and that is different among countries. This confirms that uniform policy recommendation relating to the causality between these variables may not work for these selected MENA countries. |
| Keywords: | FDI; Renewable energy consumption; Economic growth; Bootstrap ARDL; MENA |
| JEL: | C15 F21 O11 Q43 |
| Date: | 2018–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103348&r=all |
| By: | Nadja Klein; Michael Stanley Smith; David J. Nott |
| Abstract: | Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with rich feature vectors of past values can provide accurate point forecasts for series that exhibit complex serial dependence. We propose two approaches to constructing deep time series probabilistic models based on a variant of RNN called an echo state network (ESN). The first is where the output layer of the ESN has stochastic disturbances and a shrinkage prior for additional regularization. The second approach employs the implicit copula of an ESN with Gaussian disturbances, which is a deep copula process on the feature space. Combining this copula with a non-parametrically estimated marginal distribution produces a deep distributional time series model. The resulting probabilistic forecasts are deep functions of the feature vector and also marginally calibrated. In both approaches, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the models and compute forecasts. The proposed deep time series models are suitable for the complex task of forecasting intraday electricity prices. Using data from the Australian National Electricity Market, we show that our models provide accurate probabilistic price forecasts. Moreover, the models provide a flexible framework for incorporating probabilistic forecasts of electricity demand as additional features. We demonstrate that doing so in the deep distributional time series model in particular, increases price forecast accuracy substantially. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.01844&r=all |
| By: | Liebich, Lena; Nöh, Lukas; Rutkowski, Felix; Schwarz, Milena |
| Abstract: | The transformation of economies towards significantly reduced CO2 consumption raises high investment and capital requirements. Financial and capital markets can help to mobilize the necessary funds for global investment needs and to steer capital towards sustainable investments. Moreover, potential disruptive impacts of climate change on the financial system have started to become more apparent recently and require central banks, regulators and supervisors to take a conscious look at the risks and opportunities of climate change for financial intermediaries and markets. This article offers a comprehensive discussion on how green finance has been evolving thus far and explores the opportunities and key developments ahead with particular emphasis on four selected highly topical issues: 1) the introduction of German green government bonds, 2) obstacles to the correct pricing of climate-related risks, 3) the EU taxonomy that has recently been put forward to develop a uniform classification of sustainable economic activities as well as 4) the role of central banks in fostering the transition to a low-carbon economy. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:052020&r=all |
| By: | Amelung, Torsten |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the development of the competition of electricity retail in Europe in general and the situation in Germany in particular. The competition in the retail business has been forcing electricity retailers to spend increasing resources on marketing, sales and customer service. This has led to a fierce competition both especially in Germany as price transparency is quite high. Short-term price adjustments by retail companies are led by behavioral patterns that follow the logic of the prisoner’s dilemma. Suppliers view marketing and sales expenditures as a short-term investment, thus weighing costs of winning new customers against the risk that customers might switch again in the medium-run. In order to escape this short-term competitive pressure, an increasing number of retail companies in the German electricity retail market focus on the diversification of their activities by offering new product lines such as distributed energy solutions, services for e-mobility and facility management. Moreover, there is a trend towards investing in the development of a brand to increase customer loyalty. |
| Keywords: | short term competition,second-mover-advantage,product versioning,diversification,distributed energy solutions,brand strategy,digitalization,affiliate marketing |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:224983&r=all |
| By: | Battula, Swathi; Tesfatsion, Leigh; Wang, Zhaoyu |
| Abstract: | A household model is formulated to facilitate careful development and performance testing of bid-based transactive energy system (TES) designs with voluntary customer participation. The optimal general bid-function form for households with thermostatically controlled loads is derived from dynamic programming principles, based solely on general household thermal dynamic and welfare attributes. Quantitative forms are determined for these optimal bid functions, given quantitative forms for these attributes. These quantitative attributes are used to construct representative household types based on clusterings of correlated parameter values. Bid comparison, peak-load reduction, and load-matching test cases conducted for a 123-bus distribution system operating under a generic bid-based TES design illustrate the usefulness of our methods for ensuring TES designs are aligned with local customer goals and constraints. |
| Date: | 2019–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:201912050800001074&r=all |
| By: | Chai, Huajun; Rodier, Caroline; Song, Jeffery; Zhang, Michael |
| Abstract: | Parking has long been an urban planning challenge. Providing parking in city centers is land-intensive and expensive. Moreover, drivers searching for scarce parking can increase congestion, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Use of automated vehicles to drop off and pick up travelers could reduce the demand for parking, which could reduce VMT and associated emissions and allow urban spaces currently used for parking to be converted to more beneficial uses. However, automated vehicles could also have negative consequences. They could generate empty vehicle travel and more cross-traffic movements due to drop-offs and pick-ups which could increase congestion, VMT, and GHG emissions. Researchers at the University of California, Davis modeled the travel effects of changes in drop-off and pick-up activity and parking supply that might be triggered by widespread automated vehicle use in San Francisco’s city center. A primary goal of this research was to determine an optimal level of automated vehicle adoption that minimizes negative consequences. The researchers also modeled methods to control these negative consequences, including expanding drop-off and pick-up zones and imposing auto pricing policies to curb demand. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Autonomous vehicles, Central business districts, City planning, Curb side parking, Exhaust gases, Parking demand, Traffic models, Travel behavior, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt03c3c2d4&r=all |
| By: | Hamid, Nazrah Abdul; Muda, Ruhaini; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Omar, Normah; Nadzri, Farah Aida Ahmad |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between social capital on the green growth in Malaysia, with the aim of ascertaining whether faith based social capital has a role in sustaining economic growth. The study utilizes the annual data over the period of 1970-2015. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and causality using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings demonstrate the long and short-run associations between social capital and green growth in Malaysia. The causality only runs in a unidirection from social capital to the green economic growth. The findings have important policy implications for green economic growth measurement to account for social well-being and to fulfil the objectives of Islamic Sharia. |
| Date: | 2020–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g9zc2&r=all |
| By: | Ligia Topan (Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico. Universidad Complutense de Madrid); Miguel Jerez (Department of Economics. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Sonia Sotoca (Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico. Universidad Complutense de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we assess the oil price pass-through into both, the global inflation in Spain and the inflation derived from the non-deterministic prices of the standard European classification of product groups, during the period 2002-2018. To this end we fit a transfer function to inflation in each group, extended to allow for an asymmetry in the transmission of positive/negative oil cost shocks, that is, a “rockets and feathers effect”. Our results show that most often there is a significant asymmetry, which can be explained by the degree of competition in each market. |
| Keywords: | Oil price; Products groups inflation; Asymmetric effects; Transfer function. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2002&r=all |
| By: | Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Don, Anurasiri Nalaka Geekiyanage; Arachchillage, Aruna Prasad Nissanka; Mukherjee, Sacchidananda; Fatimah, Yuti Ariani |
| Abstract: | In 1987, the Brundtland Commission introduced the term “sustainable development” to highlight the needs for taking the future generations into account. The term has evolved from only focusing on the human kind to reconciliation between humans and nature. On one hand, this evolution opens space for nature and vulnerable people to be acknowledged, on the other hand, it raises difficulties in implementing the idea due to its heterogeneity. By the mid 1990s, for instance, there were more than 100 definitions of sustainability (Marshall and Toffel, 2005). Rather than following previous scholars trying to find a general definition for sustainability, we try to approach it through the idea of translation. From this perspective, diversity is being bounded via others’ right such as a practice is wrong whenever it might harm others and not because it looks different. Based on the argument above, we look at the energy sector within Asian countries in an attempt to increase variety in understanding sustainability. |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5bgz6&r=all |
| By: | Gaëlle Le Treut (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2020–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02949396&r=all |
| By: | Venditti, Fabrizio; Veronese, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural decomposition of the price of oil can therefore inform on the state of the global business cycle as well as on global financial market sentiment. In this paper we develop a method to identify structural sources of oil price fluctuations at the daily frequency and in real time. The identification strategy blends sign, narrative restrictions and instrumental variable techniques. By using data on asset prices, oil production and global economic activity we account for the double nature of oil: a financial asset as well as a physical commodity. The model offers novel insights on the relationship between the price of oil and asset prices. We also illustrate how the model could have been used in real time to interpret oil price movements in periods of high geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and to read the drop of crude prices due to fears related to the Corona virus. JEL Classification: Q43, C32, E32, C53 |
| Keywords: | oil prices, proxy-SVAR, sign restrictions, VAR |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202472&r=all |
| By: | Huang, Donna; Daniel, Lyrian; Moore, Trivess; Baker, Emma; BEER, ANDREW; Willand, Nicola; Horne, Ralph; Hamilto, Cathryn |
| Abstract: | This research examined the incidence of energy hardship for Australian low income renters, and considered strategies and policy actions to reduce its impact on the lives of such households. Up to 40% of Australian households who rent their housing experience energy hardship. Energy hardship can include both absolute and relative measures of financial hardship, as well as circumstances where residents limit their energy use for normal daily activities. |
| Date: | 2020–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vxmc9&r=all |
| By: | Tesfatsion, Leigh; Battula, Swathi |
| Abstract: | U.S. centrally-managed wholesale power markets currently rely on Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) and Security Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) optimizations to determine unit commitments, reserve, and scheduled dispatch levels for generating units during future operating periods. AMES V5.0 is an open source Java/Python platform that implements a combined SCUC/SCED optimization capturing salient features of these actual market SCUC/SCED optimizations. This report provides extensive documentation for the analytical formulation of the AMES V5.0 SCUC/SCED optimization. |
| Date: | 2020–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202007020700001108&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, IMéRA - Institute for Advanced Studies - Aix-Marseille University); Giorgio Fabbri (GAEL [2020-....] - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble [2020-....] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA [2020-....] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-....] - Grenoble INP [2020-....] - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology [2020-....] - UGA [2020-....] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-....]); Salvatore Federico (DEPS - Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistica - UNISI - Università degli Studi di Siena); Fausto Gozzi (LUISS - Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli [Roma]) |
| Abstract: | We study the joint determination of optimal investment and optimal depollution in a spatiotemporal framework where pollution is transboundary. Pollution is controlled at a global level. The regulator internalizes that: (i) production generates pollution, which is bad for the wellbeing of population, and that (ii) pollution flows across space driven by a diffusion process. We solve analytically for the optimal investment and depollution spatiotemporal paths and characterize the optimal long-term spatial distribution when relevant. We finally explore numerically the variety of optimal spatial distributions obtained using a core/periphery model where the core differs from the periphery either in terms of input productivity, depollution efficiency, environmental awareness or self-cleaning capacity of nature. We also compare the distributions with and without diffusion. Key aspects in the optimal policy of the regulator are the role of aversion to inequality, notably leading to smoothing consumption across locations, and the control of diffusive pollution adding another smoothing engine. |
| Keywords: | decision analysis,pollution control,geography,transboundary pollution,infinite dimensional optimal control problems |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02949275&r=all |
| By: | Narvarte, Alejandra; Zanfrillo, Alicia Inés; Artola, María Antonia |
| Abstract: | En la actualidad un amplio número de organizaciones dirigen sus esfuerzos hacia la adopción de iniciativas focalizadas en desarrollar su compromiso ambiental, particularmente las instituciones de educación superior llevan adelante acciones tanto para la protección y preservación del entorno como para la promoción de una conducta responsable, aunque la disponibilidad de herramientas y sistemas que permitan la medición, evaluación y comunicación de información medioambiental aún resulta incipiente. El propósito del trabajo consiste en cuantificar los efectos indirectos del quehacer de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata en el año 2019, por la comparación entre dos escenarios en el consumo de energía eléctrica: uno, actual, con luminarias fluorescentes y otro, emergente de la modernización del equipamiento por la aplicación de programas de consumo responsable. Se adopta una metodología cuantitativa, de tipo descriptiva enmarcada en el estudio del consumo energético de la red lumínica según la determinación de costos medioambientales a través del análisis de fuentes secundarias y observación directa. Los resultados muestran un ahorro significativo en la emisión de uno de los gases efecto invernadero, el dióxido de carbono, por la aplicación de soluciones medioambientales sostenibles y mayor vida útil del equipamiento. |
| Keywords: | Costos Ambientales; Consumo de Energía; Sistemas de Información; Instituciones de Enseñanza Superior; |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3356&r=all |