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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | Research on oil markets conducted during the last decade has challenged long-held beliefs about the causes and consequences of oil price shocks. As the empirical and theoretical models used by economists have evolved, so has our understanding of the determinants of oil price shocks and of the interaction between oil markets and the global economy. Some of the key insights are that the real price of oil is endogenous with respect to economic fundamentals, and that oil price shocks do not occur ceteris paribus. This makes it necessary to explicitly account for the demand and supply shocks underlying oil price shocks when studying their transmission to the domestic economy. Disentangling cause and effect in the relationship between oil prices and the economy requires structural models of the global economy including the oil market. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetries; Business cycle; Channels of transmission; Demand; Macroeconomy; Supply |
| JEL: | Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9823&r=ene |
| By: | Ronald A. Ratti; Joaquin L. Vespignani |
| Abstract: | In this paper we introduce a global factor-augmented error correction model to quantify the interaction of oil price with the global economy. Global factors are constructed for global oil price and global interest rate, money, real output and inflation over 1999-2012. The global factors are constructed to capture developments in the largest developing and developed economies. At global level the quantity theory of money operates in the sense that global money, output and prices are cointegrated. Positive innovation in global oil price is connected with global interest rate tightening. Positive innovation in global money, CPI and outputs is connected with increase in oil prices while positive innovations in global interest rate are associated with decline in oil prices. The US, Euro area and China variables are the main drivers of global factors. Granger causality test shows that US and China variables Granger cause global interest rate, money, output and prices. |
| Keywords: | Global interest rate, global monetary aggregates, oil prices, GFAVEC |
| JEL: | E44 E50 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-41&r=ene |
| By: | Céline Antonin (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | Le deuxième semestre 2013 est marqué par la stabilité des prix autour de 110 dollars le baril de Brent. Ce maintien à des niveaux élevés s’explique par la faiblesse de l’offre par rapport à la demande, sous l’effet de ruptures d’approvisionnement (Libye, Nigéria) et d’un climat politique tendu au Proche-Orient, dans un marché surtout déterminé par les fondamentaux. Dans notre scénario central, nous faisons l’hypothèse d’une reprise progressive de la production en Libye dès 2014, de la levée des sanctions en Iran à partir de fin 2014/début 2015, et excluons une baisse de l’offre de la Russie malgré le bras de fer autour de l’Ukraine. Les prix du Brent baisseraient au cours de l’année 2014 avec la baisse des tensions sur l’offre pour atteindre 100 dollars en fin d’année. En 2015, les prix se maintiendraient autour de 100 dollars le baril, car le retour d’une croissance plus dynamique dans les pays développés devrait être compensé par une hausse de la production des pays non-membres de l’OPEP et par la présence de stocks abondants. La persistance de tensions politiques en Afrique et au Proche-Orient, la volonté de l’Arabie Saoudite de maintenir les cours entre 100 et 110 dollars, la demande toujours dynamique en provenance des pays non OCDE et le coût d’extraction des nouveaux gisements non conventionnels devraient néanmoins entraîner la résistance des cours en les maintenant au-dessus des 100 dollars. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1n2u7531b58e2r7pc5ls0gn6tj&r=ene |
| By: | Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan |
| Abstract: | The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large dataset using a dynamic factor model (DFM). This method is motivated by the fact that a small scale VAR is not infomationally sufficient to identify the shocks. The main results are as follows: (i) While global demand shocks account for the largest share of oil price fluctuations, speculative shocks are the second most important driver. (ii) The increase in oil prices over the last decade is mainly driven by the strength of global demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008, and its subsequent collapse. (iii) The comovement between oil prices and the prices of other commodities is mainly explained by global demand shocks. Our results support the view that the recent oil price increase is mainly driven by the strength of global demand but that the financialization process of commodity markets also played a role. |
| Keywords: | DFM; oil prices; speculation |
| JEL: | C32 D84 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9808&r=ene |
| By: | Baumeister, Christiane; Guérin, Pierre; Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. An obvious advantage of financial data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily or weekly basis. We investigate whether mixed-frequency models may be used to take advantage of these rich data sets. We show that, among a range of alternative high-frequency predictors, especially changes in U.S. crude oil inventories produce substantial and statistically significant real-time improvements in forecast accuracy. The preferred MIDAS model reduces the MSPE by as much as 16 percent compared with the no-change forecast and has statistically significant directional accuracy as high as 82 percent. This MIDAS forecast also is more accurate than a mixed-frequency real-time VAR forecast, but not systematically more accurate than the corresponding forecast based on monthly inventories. We conclude that typically not much is lost by ignoring high-frequency financial data in forecasting the monthly real price of oil. |
| Keywords: | Forecasts; Mixed frequency; Oil price; Real-time data |
| JEL: | C53 G14 Q43 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9768&r=ene |
| By: | Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. That link, however, appears largely driven by common macroeconomic determinants of the prices of oil and agricultural commodities rather than the pass-through from higher oil prices. We show that there is no evidence that corn ethanol mandates have created a tight link between oil and agricultural markets. Rather increases in food commodity prices not associated with changes in global real activity appear to reflect a wide range of idiosyncratic shocks ranging from changes in biofuel policies to poor harvests. Increases in agricultural commodity prices in turn contribute little to U.S. retail food price increases, because of the small cost share of agricultural products in food prices. There is no evidence that oil price shocks have caused more than a negligible increase in retail food prices in recent years. Nor is there evidence for the prevailing wisdom that oil-price driven increases in the cost of food processing, packaging, transportation and distribution are responsible for higher retail food prices. Finally, there is no evidence that oil-market specific events or for that matter U.S. biofuel policies help explain the evolution of the real price of rice, which is perhaps the single most important food commodity for many developing countries. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; biofuel; consumer prices; corn; crop prices; ethanol; food crisis; food price volatility; globalization; inflation; pass-through |
| JEL: | E31 Q11 Q42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9689&r=ene |
| By: | Swinand, Gregory P; O'Mahoney, Amy |
| Abstract: | Recent rapidly rising and volatile energy commodities prices and financial price manipulation scandals have brought the pricing mechanisms of crude oil derivatives to the fore of both popular press and policy initiatives. Among the most important of such commodities is Brent Crude. Brent Crude and its complex of derivative products make Brent Crude potentially more opaque and thus susceptible to price manipulation than other commodities. In spite of the importance of Brent to the world economy and world energy prices, and its complex of derivative pricing, relatively little work has been done to explore the potential for, and evidence of, price manipulation in the Brent Crude complex. This paper seeks to address this lack by proposing a method to test whether price squeezes have occurred in Brent Crude. This paper builds on previous work which proposed an a priori test for evidence of manipulation and the theory of storage. Previous work (Barrera-Rey and Seymour 1996) posited that the very close-to-delivery end of the forward curve for Brent should not be simultaneously in contango and backwardation, while other work (Geman and Smith 2012) proposed using an econometric prediction and a model based on the theory of storage to detect manipulation in commodity markets. Our work builds on these approaches by developing a more detailed model of calendar spreads in the Brent Crude complex. In Brent, a particular area of potential manipulation is from the relatively illiquid and more opaque physical OTC forward market (where prices are ‘assessed’ by Platts during a short ‘window’ of time) and the more liquid ICE futures market. Our model relates prompt ICE futures calendar spreads to prompt-over-dated OTC forward spreads. The model then tests whether the a priori indicators of manipulation as suggested by Barrera-Rey and Seymour are statistically consistent with the process which drives spreads historically. We find that in most all cases, the indicated period of manipulation is statistically different. We further investigate whether other factors, such as liquidity (volume and open interest) or world oil market conditions (using WTI spreads) or other forward market conditions could be driving our results. The statistical difference is found to be invariant to the inclusion of these other explanatory variables. We conclude that the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis of price manipulation and that the test provides a model and method for detecting such cases. |
| Keywords: | commodities, econometrics, market manipulation |
| JEL: | D00 L10 Q40 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56252&r=ene |
| By: | Jean-Michel Glachant; Michelle Hallack; Miguel Vazquez |
| Abstract: | The institutional setting of open gas networks and markets is revealing considerably diverse and diverging roads taken by the US, the EU and Australia. We will show that this is explained by key choices made in the primary liberalization process. This primary liberalization is based on a definition of network access rights, which leads to different regimes for the transmission services, as well as for the gas commodity trade, as commodity trade depends on the network services to get any market deal actually implemented. Not only do those choices depend on the physical architecture of the network, but also the perceived difficulties and institutional costs of coordinating the actual transmission services through certain market arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Network regulation, gas market, property rights, open access, gas carriage systems |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2014/33&r=ene |
| By: | Abolhosseini, Shahrouz (Seoul National University); Heshmati, Almas (Jönköping University, Sogang University) |
| Abstract: | Considering that the major part of greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide, there is a global concern aimed at reducing carbon emissions. Additionally, major consumer countries are looking for alternative sources of energy to avoid the impact of higher fossil fuel prices and political instability in the major energy supplying countries. In this regard, different policies could be applied to reduce carbon emissions, such as enhancing renewable energy deployment and encouraging technological innovation and creation of green jobs. There are three main support mechanisms employed by governments to finance renewable energy development programs: feed-in-tariffs, tax incentives, and tradable green certificates. Considering that many of the promising technologies to deploy renewable energy require investment in small-scale energy production systems, these mechanisms could be used to enhance renewable energy development at the desired scale. Employing a carbon emission tax or emission trading mechanism could be considered ideal policies to mitigate emissions at the lowest cost. The comparison of feed-in-tariffs and renewable portfolio standard policies showed that the former is good when a policy to develop renewable energy sources with a low level of risk for investors is considered. However, the latter is an appropriate policy when a market view policy is applied by the government. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy, financing renewable energy, feed-in-tariffs, tax incentives, tradable green certificates, carbon emission tax, green jobs |
| JEL: | H23 L71 O13 O31 Q27 Q42 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8182&r=ene |
| By: | Claudio Marcantonini; A. Denny Ellerman |
| Abstract: | Incentives for the development of renewable energy have increasingly become an instrument of climate policy, that is, as a means to reduce GHG emissions. This research analyzes the German experience in promoting renewable energy over the past decade to identify the ex-post cost of reducing CO2 emissions in the power sector through the promotion of renewable energy, specifically, wind and solar. A carbon surcharge and an implicit carbon price due to the renewable energy incentives for the years 2006-2010 are calculated. The carbon surcharge is the ratio of the net cost of the renewable energy over the CO2 emission reductions resulting from actual renewable energy injections. The net cost is the sum of the costs and cost savings due to these injections into the electric power system. The implicit carbon price is the sum of the carbon surcharge and the EUA price and it can be seen as a measure of the CO2 abatement efficiency of the renewable energy incentives. Results show that both the carbon surcharge and he implicit carbon price of wind are relatively low, on the order of tens of euro per tonne of O2, while the same measures for solar are very high, on the order of hundreds of euro per tonne of CO2. |
| Keywords: | Renewables incentives, wind energy, solar energy, abatement cost, EU ETS |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2014/28&r=ene |
| By: | Oskar Lecuyer (Department of Economics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern); Adrien Vogt-Schilb (CIRED and World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the transition from preexisting polluting fossil-fueled capital (coal power) to cleaner fossil-fueled capital (gas) and zero-carbon capital (renewable). We model exhaustible resources, irreversible investment, adjustment costs and a carbon budget; both fossil-fuel and renewable energy consumption are subject to capacity constraints. To smooth investment and spread costs, optimal investment in expensive renewable power may start before the cheaper fossil resources are exhausted. Gas power operates as a bridge technology between coal and renewable: it allows building less renewable at the beginning of the transition, moving some efforts from the short to the middle term. Finally, the popular criteria of the levelized cost of electricity is biased toward cheaper and lower-potential alternatives (gas instead of renewable) if computed against current prices. We provide numerical simulations of the European power sector based on the Commission’s energy roadmap to 2050. |
| Keywords: | Climate change mitigation, Path dependence, Optimal timing, Dynamic efficiency, Early-scrapping |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2014.05&r=ene |
| By: | Carraro, Carlo; Longden, Thomas; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses a set of new scenarios for energy markets in Europe to evaluate the consistency of economic incentives and climate objectives. It focuses in particular on the role of natural gas across a range of climate policy scenarios (including the Copenhagen Pledges and the EU Roadmap) to identify whether current trend and policies are leading to an economically efficient and, at the same time, climate friendly, energy mix. Economic costs and environmental objectives are balanced to identify the welfare-maximising development path, the related investment strategies in the energy sector, and the resulting optimal energy mix. Policy measures to support this balanced economic development are identified. A specific sensitivity analysis upon the role of the 2020 renewable targets and increased energy efficiency improvements is also carried out. We conclude that a suitable and sustained carbon price needs to be implemented to move energy markets in Europe closer to the optimal energy mix. We also highlight that an appropriate carbon pricing is sufficient to achieve both the emission target and the renewable target, without incurring in high economic costs if climate policy is not too ambitious and/or it is internationally coordinated. Finally, our results show that natural gas is the key transitional fuel within the cost-effective achievement of a range of climate policy targets. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Pricing; Energy Markets; EU Climate Policy; Gas Share; Renewables Target |
| JEL: | O33 O41 Q43 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9715&r=ene |
| By: | Grossi, Luigi (University of Verona); Heim, Sven (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research Mannheim and University of Giessen); Waterson, Michael (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | The German response to the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident was possibly the most significant change of policy towards nuclear power outside Japan, leading to a sudden and very significant shift in the underlying power generation structure in Germany. This provides a very useful natural experiment on the impact of increasing proportions of renewable compared to conventional fuel inputs into power production, helping us to see how changed proportions in future as a result of policy moves in favour of renewables are likely to impact. We find through quasi-experimental exploration of a modified demand-supply framework that despite the swift, unpredicted change, the main impact was a significant increase in prices, partly caused by more frequent situations with unilateral market power. The price impact was also most significant in off-peak hours leading to changed investment incentives. There were no appreciable quantity effects on the market, such as power outages, contrary to some views that the impacts would be significant. Furthermore, we find the sudden and unilateral phase-out decision by the German government has significantly affected electricity prices and thus competitiveness in neighbouring countries. Key words: Electricity markets ; Atomausstieg ; German power market ; nuclear outages ; renewables. JEL classification: L51 ; L94 ; Q41 ; Q48 ; Q54 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1047&r=ene |
| By: | Grimm, Veronika; Martin, Alexander; Weibelzahl, Martin; Zöttl, Gregor |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a three–level computational equilibrium model that allows to analyze the impact of the regulatory environment on transmission line expansion (by the regulator) and investment in generation capacity (by private firms) in liberalized electricity markets. The basic model analyzes investment decisions of the transmission operator (TO) and private firms in expectation of an energy only market and cost-based redispatch. In different specifications we consider the cases of one versus two price zones (market splitting) and analyze different approaches to recover network cost, in particular lump sum, capacity based, and energy based fees. In order to compare the outcomes of our multi–stage market model with the first best benchmark, we also solve the corresponding integrated planer problem. In two simple test networks we illustrate that energy only markets can lead to suboptimal locational decisions for generation capacity and thus, imply excessive network expansion. Market splitting heals those problems only partially. Those results obtain for both, capacity and energy based network tariffs, although investment slightly differs across those regimes. |
| Keywords: | Electricity markets; Network Expansion; Generation Expansion; Investment Incentives; Computational Equilibrium Models; Transmission Management |
| Date: | 2014–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trf:wpaper:460&r=ene |
| By: | Stefano Cló (University of Milan (Italy)); Gaetano D’Adamo (University of Valencia (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of solar penetration in the Italian wholesale electricity market on the market value of solar with respect to gas sources, measured as the ratio between the relative price they respectively earn and the average daily electricity price (value factor). We find that, on average, an increase of solar generation has a negative impact on the price earned by solar producers, thus causing a marginal departure from the grid parity condition. The relation between solar production and its market value is not constant over the years, while it depends on the degree of solar penetration. It is positive for very low levels of solar production while, as production increases, its marginal impact on the solar market value decreases and eventually becomes negative. An opposite relation is found when looking at the Gas market value. As solar displaces gas mainly during the peak-price hours, an initial solar penetration reduces the gas market value. However, as the solar share further increases, gas producers adapt their biding strategies. They switch production from the peak to the off-peak hours, where they exploit their temporary market power to increase the off-peak price. As a result, the relative price earned by gas producers is higher than the average daily price, increasing their market value with respect to renewable sources. |
| Keywords: | Renewable sources, grid parity, solar, gas, Italian power market, electricity price, value factor |
| JEL: | C22 D40 Q41 Q42 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:1405&r=ene |
| By: | Rezai, Armon; van der Ploeg, Frederick |
| Abstract: | Climate change must deal with two market failures, global warming and learning by doing in renewable use. The social optimum requires an aggressive renewables subsidy in the near term and a gradually rising carbon tax which falls in long run. As a result, more renewables are used relative to fossil fuel, there is an intermediate phase of simultaneous use, the carbonfree era is brought forward, more fossil fuel is locked up and global warming is lower. The optimal carbon tax is not a fixed proportion of world GDP. The climate externality is more severe than the learning by doing one. |
| Keywords: | additive damages; carbon tax; climate change; directed technical change; integrated assessment; learning by doing; multiplicative damages; Ramsey growth; renewables subsidy |
| JEL: | H21 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9921&r=ene |
| By: | Saraly Andrade de Sa; Julien Daubanes |
| Abstract: | This paper questions the ability of a carbon tax to reduce oil extraction. Demand for oil is very price inelastic. Facing such demand, an extractive cartel induces the highest price that does not destroy its demand; it tolerates "non-drastic" substitutes but deters substitution possibilities that have the potential to drastically deteriorate its demand. Limit-pricing equilibria of non-renewable resource markets sharply differ from conventional Hotelling outcomes. Oil taxes become neutral. Policies only reduce current oil extraction when they support existing non-drastic substitutes. Since the carbn tax applies to oil and to its current carbon substitutes, it induces higher oil current production. |
| Keywords: | Carbon tax, Limit pricing, Non-renewable resource, Monopoly, Demand elasticity, Substitutes subsidies |
| JEL: | Q30 L12 H21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:136&r=ene |
| By: | Swinand, Gregory P; O'Mahoney, Amy |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of wind generation on system costs and prices in Ireland. The need to mitigate climate change, achieve renewables energy targets, and use renewable sources of energy means that many countries are considering greater levels of wind generation in their power generation mix. The overall impact of wind generation on system costs and performance has only been studied recently, and often with limited actual data from power systems with increased wind penetration. The paper uses a unique dataset of half-hourly system demand, generation, wind forecast generation, and actual wind generation, along with Irish system marginal price (SMP) data from 2008 to autumn 2012. An econometric time-series model of SMP as a function of forecast and realized demand and wind generation is formed. The costs of balancing and system constraints are included in the cost of ‘uplift’, and thus the total cost of a variety of factors is included in our estimates for Ireland. Our results suggest that each 1% increase in wind generation reduces SMP in Ireland by about 0.06%, while each 1% wind forecast error increases SMP about 0.02%. In absolute terms, though, at the mean the impact of wind forecast errors is small, or about 0.4€cent/MWh-wind generated. However, the impact per MWh forecast error is about €1. |
| Keywords: | Cost function, econometrics, power generation economics, power system economics, wind power generation |
| JEL: | D0 D4 Q4 Q42 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56246&r=ene |
| By: | Leonardo Meeus |
| Abstract: | Onshore, generators are connected to the transmission grid by TSOs. This regulatory model could simply be extended to offshore (i.e. Germany), but the connection of offshore wind farms to shore is also an opportunity to test alternatives, i.e. the third party model (i.e. the UK) or the generator model (i.e. Sweden). In this paper, we argue that the third party and generator models are indeed better suited to support the evolution towards larger scale offshore wind farms that are increasingly developed farther out to sea, while the TSO model is better suited to support the evolution towards cross-border offshore grid projects. In other words, an important trade-off needs to be made because none of the existing regulatory models can fulfill all the expectations in the current context in Europe. And, the trade-off has to be made at the regional or EU level because the different national regulatory frameworks are incompatible when applied to a cross-border offshore grid project. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, offshore wind, grid connection, transmission, regulation |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2014/24&r=ene |
| By: | Debor, Sarah |
| Abstract: | This paper reflects the socio-economic power of renewable energy production cooperatives for a wider energy system transformation in Germany. Energy cooperatives have turned into important supporters of renewable and decentralised energy structures, due to their strong growth since the year 2006, their participation in local renewable energy projects and their democratic awareness. The cooperative form of coordinating regional energy projects applies to a decentralised energy system that is managed by many smaller firms - a system concept that is preferred by the majority of German citizens. However, there is not enough knowledge to understand to what extent this organisational form is able to unify a broad group of actors in promoting a renewable energy system (societal power) and to gather capital for elaborating renewable energy supply structures (economic power). The reflection is based on an empirical assessment of all energy cooperatives that were registered in Germany by 31st December 2013. Their growth dynamic and their business approaches are discussed. A special focus lies on renewable energy production cooperatives. The study presents the development of their members, their capital, their profit and loss, as well as their investment intensity over a timeframe of three years (2010-2012). The socio-economic potential of renewable energy production cooperatives for supporting a renewable energy system is discussed against the background of empirical results. -- Das Diskussionspapier reflektiert die sozio-ökonomische Macht erneuerbarer Energieproduktions-Genossenschaften für eine Energiewende in Deutschland. Energiegenossenschaften sind durch ihr starkes Wachstum seit dem Jahr 2006, ihre Beteiligung an lokalen Energieprojekten, sowie ihrem demokratischen Selbstverständnis zu wichtigen Unterstützern von erneuerbaren und dezentralen Energiestrukturen geworden. Die Koordinierung lokaler Energieprojekte durch Genossenschaften steht für ein dezentrales Energiesystem, das vor allem von vielen kleineren Unternehmen verwaltet wird - ein Systemkonzept, das von einer Mehrheit in Deutschland bevorzugt wird. Allerdings existieren nicht genug Kenntnisse über das Vermögen dieser Organisationsform, viele Akteure für die Förderung eines erneuerbaren Energiesystems zu vereinen (gesellschaftliche Macht), sowie Kapital für die Diffusion erneuerbarer Energieversorgungsstrukturen zu sammeln (wirtschaftliche Macht). Die Reflektion basiert auf einer empirischen Untersuchung aller Energiegenossenschaften, die in Deutschland bis zum 31. Dezember 2013 registriert wurden. Ihre Wachstumsdynamik und Geschäftsansätze werden vorgestellt. Der Schwerpunkt der Analyse liegt auf erneuerbaren Energieproduktions-Genossenschaften. Die Studie beschreibt die Entwicklung ihrer Mitglieder und des Kapitals, sowie ihre Investitionsintensität für einen Zeitraum von drei Jahren (2010-2012). Das sozio-ökonomische Potenzial von Energiegenossenschaften für die Unterstützung eines erneuerbaren Energiesystems wird vor dem Hintergrund der empirischen Ergebnisse diskutiert. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuppap:187&r=ene |
| By: | Nicole Ahner; Jean-Michel Glachant |
| Abstract: | Recent years have seen increasing efforts in Europe to win the Southern Mediterranean countries as new suppliers of energy from renewable sources (RES-E). Massive amounts of green electricity that is generated in the Middle East and the North Africa (MENA) regions might someday be consumed in the EU. However, beyond the stark invocation of an Euro-Mediterranean RES-E exchange, less attention has been given to its actual implementation. This article takes stock of the applicable EU regime that governs the transfer of green electricity via Maghreb-EU corridors. In our investigation, centre stage is given to Article 9 of Directive 2009/28/EC (RES Directive), which introduced the opportunity for the EU Member States to receive credit towards their 2020 targets for clean power generated in third countries, provided that it is consumed inside the EU. We will argue that the EU, in practice, is moving towards a ‘corridor-by-corridor’ approach, rather than towards a fully-fledged ‘EU-style’ system. |
| Keywords: | Renewables Directive, Cooperation Mechanism, Renewables Exchange, Mediterranean Basin |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2014/39&r=ene |
| By: | Lester C. Hunt (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.); David L Ryan (Department of Economics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.) |
| Abstract: | Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, rarely take account of this feature. In this paper we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy economics in a theoretically sound way that has not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this new formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlights the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves estimation of an aggregate energy demand function for the UK with data over the period 1960 – 2011. |
| Keywords: | Modelling Energy Services Demand, Energy Efficiency, Energy Demand Function Misspecification. |
| JEL: | C51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:147&r=ene |
| By: | Kahn, Matthew E. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the challenges and opportunities that government officials face in designing coherent'rules of the game'for achieving urban sustainability during times of growth. Sustainability is judged by three criteria. The first involves elements of day-to-day quality of life, such as having clean air and water and green space. The provision of these public goods has direct effects on the urban public's health and productivity. The second focuses on the city's greenhouse gas emissions. Developing cities are investing in new infrastructure, from highways and public transit systems to electricity generation and transmission. They are building water treatment, water delivery, and sewage disposal systems. Residents of these cities are simultaneously making key decisions about where they live and work and whether to buy such energy-consuming durables as private vehicles and home air-conditioning units. Given the long-lived durability of the capital stock, short-term decisions will have long-term effects on the city's carbon footprint. The third criterion is a city's resilience to natural disasters and extreme weather events. This subsection focuses on how the urban poor can be better equipped to adapt to the anticipated challenges of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Economics,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2014–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6878&r=ene |
| By: | Zeba Anjum (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University); Paul J. Burke; Reyer Gerlagh; David I. Stern |
| Abstract: | We adopt a new representation of the relationship between emissions and income using long-run growth rates. Our approach allows us to test multiple hypotheses about the drivers of per capita emissions in a single framework and avoid several of the econometric issues that have plagued previous studies. We find that for carbon dioxide emissions, scale, convergence, and resource endowment effects are statistically significant. For sulfur emissions, the scale and convergence effects are significant, there is a strong negative time effect, and non-English legal origin and higher population density are associated with more rapidly declining emissions. The environmental Kuznets effect is not statistically significant in our full sample for either carbon or sulfur. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, decoupling, pollution, environmental Kuznets curve, convergence |
| JEL: | Q56 O44 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:1403&r=ene |
| By: | Hemous, David |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a two-country (North, South), two-sector (polluting, nonpolluting) trade model with directed technical change, examining whether unilateral environmental policies can ensure sustainable growth. The polluting good is produced with a clean and a dirty input. I show that a temporary Northern policy combining clean research subsidies and a trade tax can ensure sustainable growth but Northern carbon taxes alone cannot. Trade and directed technical change accelerate environmental degradation either under laissez-faire or if the North implements carbon taxes, yet both help reduce environmental degradation under the appropriate unilateral policy. I characterize the optimal unilateral policy analytically and numerically using calibrated simulations. |
| Keywords: | climate change; directed technical change; environment; innovation; trade; unilateral policy |
| JEL: | F18 F42 F43 O32 O33 O41 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9733&r=ene |
| By: | Wolff, Hendrik (University of Washington) |
| Abstract: | Spatial distribution and leakage effects are of great policy concern and increasingly discussed in the economics literature. Here we study Europe's most aggressive recent air pollution regulation: Low Emission Zones are areas in which vehicular access is allowed only to vehicles that emit low levels of air pollutants. Using new administrative datasets from Germany, we assess the distribution of air pollution and the spatial substitution effects in green versus dirty vehicles. We find that LEZs decrease air pollution by around nine percent in urban traffic centers while pollution is unchanged in non-traffic areas. These results are driven by our finding that vehicle owners have an incentive to adopt cleaner technologies the closer they live to an LEZ. We reject the widespread concern that dirty vehicles contribute to higher pollution levels by increasingly driving longer routes outside of the LEZ. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that the health benefits of roughly two billion dollars have come at a cost of just over 1 billion dollars for upgrading the fleet of vehicles. Moreover, we find that non-attainment cities that decided not to include an LEZ but engaged in other methods (building ring roads, enhancing public transportation), experience no decrease in pollution. |
| Keywords: | low emission zones, air pollution, PM10 |
| JEL: | Q58 R48 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8180&r=ene |
| By: | Schaller, Sandra; Kopatz, Michael; Hermann, Laurenz; Hilgenstock, Marita; Redmer, Silke |
| Abstract: | In Deutschland haben einige Millionen Haushalte Schwierigkeiten, ihre Energierechnung zu bezahlen. Ein Lösungsansatz liegt in der Energieberatung. Das Projekt clevererKIEZ basierte auf einem integrativen Konzept, welches arbeitsmarkt- sowie sozial- und umweltpolitische Ziele miteinander verknüpft. Im Rahmen einer intensiven Schulungsmaßnahme qualifizierten sich Langzeitarbeitslose zu Energieberatern. Zwischen 2010 und 2013 nahmen über 1000 Haushalte am Projekt teil. Der Bericht stellt das Projekt vor und erläutert die Ergebnisse der summativen Evaluation. Im Mittelpunkt stehen die Schwerpunktbereiche: 1. Nutzeranalyse der am Projekt teilnehmenden Haushalte, 2. Analyse des Energieverbrauches sowie der Einsparerfolge, 3. Feedback der eingesetzten Energiesparberater und 4. Auswertung der Öffentlichkeitsarbeit. -- In Germany, millions of households have problems to pay the energy bill. Providing energy saving advice is one approach to solve the problem. The project was based on an integrative concept linking objectives of labor market policy with social and environmental targets. During intensive training courses, long-term unemployed were qualified as energy consultants. Between 2010 and 2013, more than one thousand households participated in the project. The report presents the project and explains the findings of the summative evaluation. The core elements are: 1. user analysis of households participating in the project, 2. analysis of energy consumption and annual cost reductions, 3. feedback from energy consultants, and 4. evaluation of public relations. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuprep:7&r=ene |
| By: | Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Lafforgue, Gilles; Moreaux, Michel |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:28019&r=ene |
| By: | Bentour, El Mostafa |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the role played by the Kuwait stock market on the real sector. It uses useful steps and techniques to set up a regression based on the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model to answer whether there is an eventually positive effect of the stock market developments on the real economy. The results show a positive impact of the market capitalisation on the Gross Domestic Product. The elasticity of the market capitalization to GDP is around 0.17. This impact is also confirmed by an autoregressive vector model via estimation and impulse response functions on both total and non oil GDP. |
| Keywords: | Non oil GDP, Market Capitalization, Cobb-Douglas, Human Capital. |
| JEL: | O11 O47 |
| Date: | 2014–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55997&r=ene |
| By: | Monica Cariola (Ceris - Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth,Turin, Italy); Alessandro Manello (Ceris - Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth,Turin, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Because nowadays more than 200 kind of diseases are to some extent connected to atmospheric pollution, with a very significant impact on the social cost of a community, it can be important to study the effect that plans for using technologies able to treat urban areas atmosphere as a whole (in particular public areas), may have on reducing social and economic costs. The relationship between the increment of air pollutant concentration and morbidity/mortality due to natural, heart, encephalovascular and respiratory causes has been widely documented in national and international scientific literature. A technology based on nano-structured materials (TiO2 based nanocompounds) which, under ultraviolet radiations, presents photocathalytic effects, can be able to decompose a wide variety of atmospheric pollutants as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nano-powder (PM10). In this paper we study and set up a model for the economic and social impact assessment of a large scale implementation of this technology in the field of urban and building construction. The paper assumes that the estimates of economic-social costs of air pollution, can be used as a starting point for a preliminary determination of the savings, which can be realized by employing photocatalytic pigments and mortars on a wide urban scale. This analysis has been applied to data referred to the town of Turin and has highlighted the possibility of a considerable level of saving in terms of social and economic costs. |
| Keywords: | 4-6 nanocompounds, atmospheric pollutants, social costs evaluation, social saving, titanium dioxide |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 Q55 Q58 I18 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csc:cerisp:201311&r=ene |