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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Jeroen Van den Bergh; Frans Oosterhuis |
| Abstract: | Evolutionary economics offers clear insights into the mechanisms that underlie innovations, structural change and transitions. It is therefore of great value for the framing of policies aimed at fostering a transition to a sustainable development. This paper offers an overview of the main insights of evolutionary economics and derives core concepts, namely ‘diversity’, ‘innovation’, ‘selection environment’, ‘bounded rationality’, ‘path dependence and lock-in’, and ‘coevolution’. These concepts are subsequently used to formulate guidelines for the role of the government and the design of public policies, such as the learning from historical technological pathways and the creation of an extended level playing field. In addition, the developments of certain energy technologies are examined in detail within the adopted evolutionary economics framework. Three particular technologies received attention, namely fuel cells, nuclear fusion, and photovoltaic cells. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p823&r=ene |
| By: | Augusto Rupérez Micola; Albert Banal Estañol; Derek W. Bunn |
| Abstract: | We present an agent-based model of a multi-tier energy market including gas shippers, electricity generators and retailers. We show how reward interdependence between strategic business units within a vertically integrated firm can increase its profits in oligopolistic energy markets. The effects are shown to be distinct from those of the raising rivals’ costs model. In our case, higher prices relate to the nature of energy markets, which facilitate the emergence of financial netback effects. <br> <br> <i>ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Anreize und Koordination in vertikal integrierten Energiemärkten) <br> Es wird ein Agenten-basiertes Modell eines Energiemarktes mit mehreren Ebenen der Wertschöpfungskette vorgestellt, das Gaslieferanten, Stromerzeuger und Händler berücksichtigt. Es kann gezeigt werden, wie ein vertikal integriertes Unternehmen, das auf oligopolistischen Energiemärkten agiert, die Honorierungsbeziehungen zwischen strategischen Geschäftsbereichen nutzen kann, um seine Gewinne zu steigern. Üblicherweise versuchen Firmen, die die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette integriert haben, ihren Vorteil dadurch zu nutzen, dass sie die Kosten der Wettbewerber durch Preisdiskriminierung erhöhen und den Markt gegen sie abschotten. Das ist in Energiemärkten nicht möglich. Im vorgestellten Modell wird ein Mechanismus gewählt, der den Charakteristika von Energiemärkten angepasst ist, um über Anreize denselben Endeffekt zu erzielen. Dieser beruht aber nicht auf der Marktabschottung, sondern auf einem finanziellen Valorisierungseffekt, bei dem Unternehmensbereiche am Beginn der Wertschöpfungskette die Preisspannen für die Unternehmensteile am oberen Ende vorgeben.</i> |
| Keywords: | Agent-based modeling, energy markets, reward interdependence |
| JEL: | C63 L22 L97 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2006-02&r=ene |
| By: | CLASTRES Cédric; DAVID Laurent |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mop:credwp:05.60&r=ene |
| By: | Girault Vincent |
| Abstract: | Notre analyse a pour but de déterminer à quel type de concurrence sera confronté un entrant sur le marché gazier européen. L’augmentation de la dépendance des importateurs européens, la sécurité des approvisionnements et la diversification des offres d’énergies entraînent une concurrence oligopolistique sur le marché européen. L’étude des caractéristiques du marché européen nous indiquera que les distributeurs européens font face à un oligopole de producteurs. Nous verrons aussi que le marché européen est très concentré et que les études théoriques et empiriques tendent à montrer que les acteurs européens vont se concurrencer en quantités. |
| Keywords: | natural gas ; european competition; oligopoly |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mop:credwp:05.55&r=ene |
| By: | Girault Vincent |
| Abstract: | L’objectif de notre analyse est de déterminer quels sont les facteurs qui influencent le portefeuille d’approvisionnement d’un entrant sur le marché gazier européen. L’augmentation de la dépendance des importateurs européens, la sécurité des approvisionnements et la diversification des offres d’énergies entraînent une concurrence oligopolistique sur le marché européen. Les acteurs, gaziers ou électriciens du marché européen, adaptent leurs comportements pour faire face à la concurrence et aux réactions des producteurs gaziers. La construction d’un portefeuille d’approvisionnement est déterminante pour permettre aux firmes européennes de se concurrencer. |
| Keywords: | natural gas ; supply chain; oligopoly |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mop:credwp:05.56&r=ene |
| By: | GROSSE Olivier; SEVI Benoît |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mop:credwp:05.59&r=ene |
| By: | Vyacheslav Vashanov; Jahan Orazdurdiyeva |
| Abstract: | Among the CIS countries Turkmenistan is known as one of the most closed state, information about which could hardly be found. At the same time these dates are contrary to each other. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan, a former Soviet Central Asian republic of almost 5 million people, has a lot of potential. It is rich in oil and gas. Proven gas reserves amount to at least 100 trillion cubic feet, and possibly 260 trillion, putting Turkmenistan among the world’s top 10 countries in terms of such reserves. Untapped oilfields lie off the coast in the Caspian Sea, the size of which is yet to be quantified. Being among the richest countries in the world in terms of hydrocarbon resources, Turkmenistan represents unquestionable interest for European community as an oil and gas exporter and interests at the world’s energy markets as well. The page gives some aspects of foreign economic activity based on analysis of the regional co-operation between Russian Federation and Turkmenistan. The paper puts to the center of research the following issues: a) classification of the Russia’s regions according to the level of commodity circulation; b) peculiarity of the trade links between Russia and Turkmenistan at the oil and gas, food, chemical and mechanical engineering fields; c)to determine export/import oriented regions. The purpose of the page is to investigate the present level of Russia-Turkmenistan co-operation, find out the ways to be integrated to the European’s energy markets. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p36&r=ene |
| By: | Izet Ibreljic; Salih Kulenovic |
| Abstract: | In wide region of South-Eastern Europe it has been notice even long ago that special attention must be given to a faster making of new creative and innovative regional structure of energetics which will made it possible for this geo-space to get incorporated in the energy structure of EU soon.However, in many documents done by foreign experts and institutions it is point out for that to happen it will take a long time. This topic is especially actual in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a country with the biggest reserve of coal in the region as well as with the biggest problem in a sphere of mining and energetics. In the paper that will be presented the mentioned task will be viewed in wider context of global development trends and process of restructuring not just energetics but also the entire economy in South-Eastern Europe and current process of rationalization of the European internal market of energy products. Certainly, in the focus of this paper will be environmental problem, which always follow these processes. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p134&r=ene |
| By: | Carlos Herminio De Aguiar Oliveira; Vera Lucia Alves Franca; Françoise Carpy Goulard; Maria Augusta Mundim Vargas |
| Abstract: | This study aims at comparing the social and economic situation of the down valley of the San Francisco river in the State of Sergipe (Brazil), before and after the construction of the Sobradinho dam (1978), implemented to produce hydro-electric energy. Data of fourteen parameters have been collected in sixteen municipalities to compare the years 1970 with 2000. Statistical analysis and mapping of these data enhanced the comparative study. Due to the energy supply, the management of the river San Francisco boosted the development of important industrial complexes and consequently the implantation of big urban centers in the North – East of the country. But these infrastructures impacted negatively the environment at a local scale. It had unfavourable consequences for the populations living at the river sides downstream of the dam. For instance, the flow regulated at 2.060 m³/s prohibits natural floods of the adjacent alluvial plains as well as the feeding of the lagoons. As a consequence no traditional rice production and fishing could be practised anymore. Therefore national government, through the CODEVASF (public company for the development of the valley of the river Sao Fransisco), implemented an action plan to reduce these impacts downstream the Sobradinho dam. Important investments allowed the creation of irrigation belts and alevin production stations. Considering the initial desired level of living standard for the local population (job creation and increase of average annual income), and despite of the significant progress of the main indicators, it appears that these actions bring only partial and incomplete improvement. The water management, as a consequence of the dam, changed drastically the territory and its rural traditional activities. This study demonstrates the necessity to create a unit for territorial planning as well as a structure for integrated water management. Because water and its management play key roles on the identity, the construction and the development of a territory. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p673&r=ene |
| By: | Geoffrey Hewings; Chokri Dridi; Joaquim Guilhoto |
| Abstract: | The present paper explores the role of water and energy resource constraints and allocation on the Northeast Brazil economy. The analysis centered on the creation of an intergrated model in which an econometric-input-output model was linked with a linear programming optimization model for resource allocation. Over the period 1999-2012, the impact on the six agricultural sectors was to reduce their output and employment by 15% annually. The reduction in employment in the rest of the economy was a little over 1% annually. However, since the agricultural sectors continue to employ a significant percentage of the labor force, the aggregate loss of employment amounted to 6% of the total regional employment on average, translating into 1 million jobs annually. When water allocation and energy resource allocations are considered simultaneously, the re-allocations are more limited, resulting in a loss of 0.78 million jobs annually. These results suggest the need for an active link between policy making and economic development when resource constraints are present. Some balance has to be provided between allocation and reallocation on the one hand perhaps driven by concerns with economic efficiency against anticipated losses of employment for part of the labor force with few other alternatives. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p14&r=ene |
| By: | MATHIEU Alain |
| Abstract: | Toute politique, quel que soit son domaine d’application, affiche des objectifs, plus ou moins explicites. La clarté n’est pas toujours de mise en la matière. En effet, peuvent être perçus des non-dits, les responsables politiques ne voulant pas heurter de front des groupes de pression défendant des intérêts professionnels contradictoires, voire totalement opposés. |
| Keywords: | biocarburants ; politiques énergétiques ; politiques agricoles |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mop:credwp:05.54&r=ene |
| By: | Susumu Uchida; Yoshiro Higano |
| Abstract: | Utilizing potential energy in wastes is significant for achieving sustainable development of the environment and the society. It can not only prevent the wastes from polluting the environment, but also possess many other advantages such as saving energy resources, material recycle and creation of employment. Moreover, reuse of wastes can also play an important role in mitigating global warming by reducing emission of methane, which is likely to be generated from stockbreeding wastes left in the open. The greenhouse effect of a methane molecule is 21 times higher than that of a carbon dioxide. To promote effective use of potential energy in wastes and restructuring the existing energy system, some management instruments and economic policies need to be adopted. In this regard, levying tax on emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and subsiding industries producing energy from wastes are considered most applicable and effective. The aim of this study is to evaluate Japanese economic policies in which the tax and subsidy are introduced. For this purpose, a socioeconomic model has been constructed. The model is based on an I/O model and considers the flow of wastes and energy. New industries which produce energy from wastes, as well as the economic policies of the tax and the subsidy are introduced in the model. Being subject to restriction on total emission of GHGs, GDP is maximized as the objective function.The effects of the policies on reducing GHG emission and promoting new industries have been analyzed and the optimum tax rate is proposed. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p537&r=ene |
| By: | Heracles Polatidis; Dias Haralambopoulos |
| Abstract: | Energy planning has come a long way during the 20th century from an intuitive approach to a full-scale discipline, incorporating technological and economic dimensions. The latter include both the micro- and the macro- level, whereas the technological framework covers energy, technology, thermodynamics and thermo-economic approaches. It is only during the last two decades that the environmental aspects of energy conversion has started to assume the gravity that it should have been assigned perhaps from the start, with the deterioration of the environment, e.g. acid rain, urban pollution, global warming, etc. and the depletion of resources becoming issues of outmost importance. The emergence of the renewable energy technologies as a reliable substitute of conventional fossil fuels gave promises that were only partially fulfilled as they never assumed the role that society had entrusted on them in the beginning. The alternative energy options, both on the technological and the resource level, revealed the complex nature of energy planning, where energy production and conversion should be addressed in tandem with energy demand and consumption and the particular preferences of the individuals. In both cases the spatial elements should be carefully analyzed and taken into consideration. Today’s energy planning asks for a complex approach which must includes the technological, economic, environmental and social design, accounting for the multitude of facets that interweave in the analysis and successful implementation of energy policies and projects. The aforementioned four dimensions must in turn be decomposed in a number of attributes in order for a quantitative and qualitative estimation to be realized. For the identification of an appropriate solution, a multi-criteria analysis seems to be the logical framework since it allows for a multitude of elements to be incorporated, and at the same time it can include a variety of stakeholders, with conflicting perhaps interests. In this paper we present the new approach for energy planning with the technological, economic, environmental and social design dimensions integrated in a new platform together with the necessary decomposition analysis. The whole new framework is presented via theoretical and practical examples and will hopefully pave the way towards a new under transition, energy future. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p754&r=ene |
| By: | Gonzalo Gamboa; Giuseppe Munda; Daniela Russi |
| Abstract: | Since Kyoto Protocol, the international community is compromising itself to reduce greenhouse gases emissions. However, the implementation of energy policies, such as the construction of renewable energy installations, in many cases doesn’t suit with local perceived necessities and causes conflicts. In this paper, some types of local conflicts originating by the introduction of RES are presented. The relevance of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) in dealing with this type of conflicts is discussed by means of theoretical and empirical arguments. SMCE supplies a structured process to gather, synthesize and evaluate information from several sources, which can be used as input for social debate and decision-making. In SMCE, the use of social research provides insights on the different and legitimate values and interests involved. Also, multi/inter disciplinarity gives information about the alternatives’ impacts on different dimensions (environmental, social, economic, and so on). These data aren’t translated in a common unit of measure, but they are presented in their original form. By combining social research with multi-criteria methodologies, transparency of the decision-making process is increased. In this way, the policy-maker is able to make sound decision and is hold responsible for his/her choices. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p701&r=ene |
| By: | Margaret Walls; Peter Nelson; Elena Safirova |
| Abstract: | In 1999 US Congress passed the National Air Quality and Telecommuting Act. This Act established pilot telecommuting programs (Ecommute) in five major US metropolitan areas with the express purpose of studying the feasibility of addressing air quality concerns through telecommuting. The major goal of the Ecommute program was to examine whether a particular type of economic incentive, tradable emissions credits from telecommuting, represents a viable strategy for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and improving air quality. Under the Ecommute program, companies could generate emissions credits by reducing the VMT of their workforce through telework programs. They would then be able to sell the credits to firms that needed the reductions to comply with air quality regulations. The paper provides analysis of the results of Ecommute program. First, we establish some context for evaluating whether the envisioned trading scheme represents a feasible approach to reducing mobile source emissions and promoting telecommuting and review the limited experience with mobile source emissions trading programs. We find that from a regulatory perspective, the most substantial drawback to such a program is its questionable environmental integrity, resulting from difficulties in designing a sufficiently rigorous quantification protocols to accurately measure the emissions reductions from telecommuting. And perhaps more importantly, such a program is not likely to be cost-effective since the emissions reductions from a single telecommuter are very small. The paper also presents the first analysis of data collected from the Ecommute program. Using two-and-one-half years of data, we look at telecommuting frequency, mode choice, and emissions reductions as well as at reporting behavior and dropout rates. Finally, we use the program's emissions reductions findings to calculate how much telecommuting would be needed to reach an annual volatile organic compounds emission reduction target in each city. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p801&r=ene |
| By: | Markus Robèrt; Daniel Jonsson R. |
| Abstract: | Finding strategies for preventing the process of global warming is growing urgent. Our intention is to highlight the future requirements and expectations on transport related sustainability measures (e.g. mobility management services, road tolls, CO2-taxes and renewable fuel systems) assisting the reaching of a long-term sustainability target of greenhouse gas emissions at the year 2030. We will employ the transport demand model SAMPERS and the traffic assignment model EMME/2 in order to investigate the effect from specific changes to the traffic network of Stockholm 2030, e.g. the environmental and socioeconomic impact from reduced number of commute trips, reduced car ownership, and new price structures and restrictions on private vehicle travel. In connection to this, we also quantify negative side effects (so-called rebound effects) coupled to efficiencies in the traffic network. We use an appraisal framework, influenced by backcasting, in order to assess the impact from the specific policies in relation to the United Nation’s (IPCC) requirements for a sustainable level of CO2-emissions. The findings from this study point at the inevitable need for at least a 50% renewable fuel mix in the traffic system if reaching the target 2030. Single-handedly, travel demand measures are insufficient to accomplish the CO2-emission target for 2030. Nevertheless, reducing traffic volumes by just a few percent might contribute to savings in emission costs, accident costs and aggregate travel time costs in the traffic system. Such measures are needed in order to mitigate the transition from fossil- to renewable fuels. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p170&r=ene |
| By: | Robin Hickman; David Banister |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the possibilities of reducing transport carbon dioxide emissions in the UK by 60 per cent by 2030 using a modified scenario building and backcasting approach. It examines a range of policy measures (behavioural and technological), assessing how they can be effectively combined to achieve the required level of emissions reduction. The intention is to evaluate whether such an ambitious target is feasible, identify the main problems (including the transition costs), and the main decision points over the 30-year time horizon. This paper outlines the first stages of the research, providing: An introduction to futures studies, including a review of forecasting, scenario building and backcasting approaches; An assessment of the UK transport sector's contribution to climate change and global warming, and; Setting targets for 2030, forecasting the business as usual situation for all forms of transport in the UK, and assessing the scale of change in terms of achieving the emissions reductions. The benefits of scenario building and backcasting are that innovative packages of policy measures can be developed to address emissions reduction targets. It allows trend-breaking analysis, by highlighting the policy and planning choices to be made by identifying those key stakeholders that should be included in the process, and by making an assessment of the main decision points that have to be made (the step changes). It also provides a longer-term background against which more detailed analysis can take place. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p791&r=ene |
| By: | Bin Li; Yoshiro Higano |
| Abstract: | Global warming is likely to be the greatest environmental challenge among various known climate changes that related with many aspects of land use and water management in the 21st century. In general, the phenomenon of global warming is almost proportionally related with the pace of industrialization, which has to be resolved with high priority. Fossil fuel production and consumption is primarily responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), into the environment, increasing the level of global warming. In this research, a policy mix as a kind of climate change strategy is proposed, imposing carbon tax in China. Based on available data, an eco-conscious socioeconomic framework model is built and several scenarios of energy use and CO2 emission are developed in order to evaluate comprehensively the effect of carbon tax on CO2 emission curtailment and introduce suitable alternative energy in China. Sustainable power technologies mean solar power technology and wind power technology in the research. The main target is to form a low carbon sustainable society in China, using a multi-sectoral macro-economical model including Input-Output (I-O) table. Then an optimum carbon tax rate is derived endogenously by running the simulation model under CO2 emission restrictions. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p218&r=ene |
| By: | Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | Environmental policies often set ‘‘relative'' or ‘‘intensity'' emission caps, i.e. emission limits proportional to the polluting firm's output. One of the arguments put forth in favour of relative caps is based on the uncertainty on business-as-usual output: if the firm's production level is higher than expected, so will be business-as-usual emissions, hence reaching a given level of emissions will be more costly than expected.<br />As a consequence, it is argued, a higher emission level should be allowed if the production level is more<br />important than expected. We assess this argument with a stochastic analytical model featuring two random<br />variables: the business-as-usual emission level, proportional to output, and the slope of the marginal<br />abatement cost curve.We compare the relative cap to an absolute cap and to a price instrument, in terms of<br />welfare impact. It turns out that in most plausible cases, either a price instrument or an absolute cap yields a<br />higher expected welfare than a relative cap. Quantitatively, the difference in expected welfare is typically very small between the absolute and the relative cap but may be significant between the relative cap and the price instrument. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty; Policy choice; Environmental taxes; Tradable permits; Intensity target |
| Date: | 2006–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00007162_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Olivier Rousse; Benoît Sévi |
| Abstract: | At present, it is widely recognized that under the hypothesis of perfect market, a system of emission permits is a flexible instrument to attain an environmental objective at least aggregate cost. Unfortunately, perfect market assumptions rarely hold in practice. Indeed, emission permits markets can suffer of several impediments such as uncertainties, high transaction costs, market power, imperfect monitoring and enforcement. In this paper, we focus our attention on uncertainty. In a marketable permits market, firms may face various kind of uncertainty like permit price uncertainty, demand uncertainty that means production and emissions uncertainty, abatement costs uncertainty, and regulatory uncertainty. Assuming that the overall uncertainty is included in the permits price uncertainty (which is a reasonable assumption even if in previous contributions, other uncertainties were assumed to capture the whole risk ), we provide an analytical explanation of banking, using the concept of prudence developed by Kimball (1990). We show that prudence behaviour is a sufficient condition for the firm to save permits in portfolio (equivalent to a precautionary premium) and that the number of permits saved in portfolio decreases when interest rate increases. Results are not so far from previous literature and seem to indicate that uncertainty has disturbing effects on trading. Prudent behaviours of regulated firms lessen trade volumes in emissions permits markets and seem to indicate that possible welfare gains exist from governmental intervention (trading pro-actively in the emission permits market as mentioned by Baldursson and von der Fehr (2004) for instance). The more interesting point of the paper is the estimation of prudence provided using data from the US Acid Rain Program (Phase II, 2000-2004). To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure prudence in a production framework, compared to works estimating prudence in a consumption framework (Guiso, Jappelli, Terlizzese (1996), Lusardi (1997,1998), Parker (1999) among others\footnote{Eisenhauer & Ventura (2003, 2004) and Halek & Eisenhauer (2001) may also be cited.}) or using experimental data (Eisenhauer(2000) or Miyata (2003)). Particularly, trade level are put in perspective with the structure (utilities or not, number of units owned, total revenues,...) of the firm to assess if there is a form of corporate prudence. Corporate prudence is no more than a form of corporate hedging if we consider permits as forward contracts following Maeda & Tezuka(2004). Discriminant characteristics are also discussed. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p550&r=ene |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses aspects of risk and uncertainty relevant in an interdisciplinary assessment of climate change policy. It opposes not only the objective approach (viewing probabilities as degrees of truth) versus the subjective approach (viewing them as degrees of certainty), but also situations of risk (when precise probabilities are well founded) versus situations of uncertainty (broader forms of ignorance such as Knightian or deep uncertainty, incompleteness, vagueness). It argues that the evolution of the IPCC guidelines on risk and uncertainties from the third to the fourth report can be read as a move away from a core objective and probabilistic position, to include more complex aspects of uncertainty. Still, many human dimensions such as strategic uncertainties, surprises, metaphysics, taboos and epistemic uncertainties remain missing from the IPCC guidelines' systematic typology. |
| Keywords: | risk; uncertainty; climate change; integrated assessment |
| Date: | 2006–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00008089_v1&r=ene |
| By: | Macauley, Molly (Resources For the Future) |
| Abstract: | The lay of the policy land for addressing and managing environmental risk includes the hillock of the precautionary principle, the mountain of the practice and ethics of monetary valuation, and the tectonic plates of real-world innovations in markets and trading exchanges for nonmarketed environmental goods. This paper offers an overview of these contemporary and as yet unresolved issues and asks how each might be addressed in disparate environmental risks such as lightning, climate change, and severe weather. The overview focuses on issues that may be of interest to the American Meteorological Society’s annual policy colloquium. |
| Keywords: | risk, environment, public policy, economics |
| JEL: | Q00 D89 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-06-01&r=ene |
| By: | Jian Zhang; Hiroyuki Shibusawa; Yuzuru Miyata |
| Abstract: | We are surely faced with the unavoidable problem as an element of important restrictions of development of human beings. It must be required to be solved immediately. It also brought the economic concerns to academic fields long ago. The positive and negative impacts of environmental and ecological changes are concerned the shift to a circulated type society from the conventional society. It is required by the end of today when the environmental problem in a global scale is aggravating. The view of the compact city of energy and resources saving is observed in recent years. The research on the balance of environmental load and urban growth needs to attract attention. In this paper, we consider a problem concerning the relationship between the spatial efficiency and the sustainability in an urban system. An urban model with natural environment is constructed to examine the possibility of such future urban forms. The idea of compact city offers us an important concept for sustainability. Our approach is based on the urban economic framework. Urban models, which have been developed since the 1970s, are classified into two categories, static and dynamic models. We adopt the framework of the dynamic urban model. In our study, the dynamic urban economic model with natural environment is built. The optimal control is applied into our numerical computation and the simulation analysis of the model is performed under several scenarios. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p280&r=ene |