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on Development |
| By: | Thiago Fonseca Morello Ramalho da Silva; Paula Carvalho Pereda; Ana Carolina M. Pessoa; Liana O. Anderson |
| Abstract: | Previous studies estimating the effect of the creation of protected areas (PAs) on forest conservation suffer from biases due to staggered protection and to unobservable drivers of protection’s effectiveness. We address these biases by using a cohort-time refined effect estimator in an event study with Amazon Basin data from 2003 to 2020. Which also unveils meaningful dynamic patterns that remained so far hidden in previous papers’ aggregate effects. Our findings show that PAs’ effects on deforestation and fires were at least halved by the aforementioned biases, being also deflated in 13% and inflated in 16%, respectively, by the failure to control for concomitant and synergistic anti-deforestation policies. We also found strong evidence of forward-looking behaviour by deforesters, with deforestation becoming larger inside protected land two years before protection. This suggests that local agents rush to deforest after learning that the likelihood of being sanctioned will rise with protection. A gradual increase of the effect with the ageing of PAs confirmed that enforcing protection is subject to learning. Also notably, effects were heterogeneous. Whereas both moderately and severely restricted PAs avoided fires, only severely restricted avoided deforestation. In addition, whereas neither national nor subnational conservation unit PAs have reduced deforestation, national units reduced fires but subnational increased them. Indigenous lands reduced deforestation and fires. Results urge policymakers to plan the creation of PAs not merely seeking to change the tenure of land but mainly to align expectations of deforesters to national conservation goals. |
| Keywords: | differences-in-differences; staggered treatment; event study; matching; protected areas; deforestation |
| JEL: | C21 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon2&r=dev |
| By: | Nicole Stoelinga (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This study shows that civilians’ behavior can be severely affected by territorial control by an insurgent group, and that these effects can persist after the government regains control and the occupation ends. I consider a framework of civilian behavior under insurgent rule, where civilians have the option to cooperate with, or resist, rules imposed by insurgents. I exploit the temporary occupation of territory in Nigeria by Boko Haram, an insurgent group with a strong anti-educational stance, as a quasi-experiment. Behavior is measured through school participation among children. Using individual-level panel data, I compare children exposed to the insurgency with children exposed to both the insurgency and occupation. The main results show (i) an immediate, negative effect on school participation, especially for those sharing a social identity with the insurgents, exposed to violent rule enforcement, and facing social pressure to conform, (ii) these negative effects persist in the long-run for the first and second group only. The effects cannot be explained by well-documented mechanisms linking conflict to lower school participation, demonstrating the need to account for occupation, and not solely violence, when considering the impact of insurgencies on civilians. |
| Keywords: | conflict, insurgency, rebel governance, education, development |
| JEL: | I24 D74 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2024_03&r=dev |
| By: | Ihsaan Bassier; Joshua Budlender |
| Abstract: | We characterize the spending and factor income effects of a large public employment programme in South Africa. We match anonymized participant IDs with weekly individual-level sales data from one of the country’s largest retailers, and estimate the treatment effect on participant spending at the retailer. Our event studies show flat pretrends with a sharp increase in average spending of 15%. Effects are substantially higher for nonfood products that likely have higher income elasticities, and there are smaller positive effects of 4% that persist in the months after the end of the programme. We use administrative firm data, input-output tables and a survey of participant spending to extrapolate effects of the increase in retailer sales on domestic factor incomes, particularly highlighting effects on the national and local wagebill. Our estimates contribute to evidence that government spending programmes benefit non-programme employment and wages. |
| Keywords: | Afrique du Sud |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–01–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16322&r=dev |
| By: | Janvier Mwisha-Kasiwa (Departement of Economics, University of Goma); Cédrick Kalemasi-Mosengo (Departement of Economics, University of Kinshasa); Oasis Kodila-Tedika (Departement of Economics, University of Kinshasa) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the DRC Demographic and Health Survey, this study examines the empirical linkages between access to agricultural land and nutritional outcomes by examining gender differences. Results suggest significant effects of access to agricultural land on nutritional outcomes in the full sample, in the male and female-headed households’ subsamples as well. However, gender differences are reported. Access to agricultural land appears to be a significant determinant of improved children dietary diversity among female-headed households (FHH), it is also associated with a significant increase in the children height-for-age z-score in the maleheaded households (MHH). Moreover, access to agricultural land positively affects the women’s likelihood of having a normal body mass index the male-headed households; and finally, the study finds that accesses to agricultural land is linked with a significant decrease in the risk of women anaemia among the female-headed households. Since then, we argue that access to agricultural land by MHHs may be beneficial for long-term nutrition indicators while it is more beneficial for short-term nutrition measures among FHHs. |
| Keywords: | Access to agricultural land, dietary diversity, nutrition status, gender, DRC |
| JEL: | C35 D13 I12 J16 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:23/017&r=dev |
| By: | Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky; Kadir, Kadir |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a critical issue for food insecurity in many countries. It can disrupt food availability since it potentially results in the reduction of agricultural yield and eventually threatens smallholder farmers' livelihood and food security in the future. In the context of Indonesia, paddy cultivation, as one of the primary crop commodities, is also prone to climatic issues, such as floods and drought. However, to our knowledge, studies examining climate change's impact on the yield of paddy utilizing the nationwide survey in Indonesia are still limited. Hence, this study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the wetland and dryland paddy yield in Indonesia. In doing so, we applied a logistics regression to the 2021 Indonesian Crop-Cutting Survey results. The survey is conducted annually by Indonesian Statistical Agency (BPS) to obtain the yield data and information related to farmers' perceptions of climate change's impact on yield. After applying a logistics model to 50, 619 wetland paddy crop samples and 1, 081 dryland paddy crop samples, we found that paddy growers experiencing events resulting from climate change are more likely to have a higher probability of experiencing a decrease in their paddy yield than those who did not experience them, which is 2.23 times higher for wetland paddy and 1.77 times higher for dryland paddy. Besides, an incline in pest attack intensity and water insufficiency are also found to impact paddy yield reduction significantly. Further, based on kernel density distribution between groups of farmers, our finding pointed out that the yield of farmers affected by climatic issues, experiencing an increase in pest attacks, and facing water shortage, is slightly to the left of the opposite groups, which means that they are significantly lower than those unaffected. To conclude, this finding confirms that climate change, pest attacks, and insufficient avail water play a non-negligible role as yield-reducing factors in Indonesia's wetland and dryland paddy production. Thus, the mitigation of climate change impact, better strategy for pest control, and improved water management in paddy cultivation are essential to maintaining paddy production's sustainability. |
| Keywords: | climate change; yield; crop-cutting; paddy; Indonesia |
| JEL: | Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119446&r=dev |
| By: | Saleemi, Sundus; Bubune Letsa, Crystal; Owusu-Authur, Johnny; Mohammed, Abubakri; Baah-Tuahene, Sylvia; Yeboah, Marilyn; Omari, Rose |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into how variances in time spent by mothers in home production (i.e., domestic and care work) impact children’s diets. We test the hypothesis that a decrease in the time spent by mothers in home production negatively impacts children’s diets. Moreover, the paper considers whether substitute caregivers and improved water infrastructure can reduce these impacts. We use primary data from women traders in three markets in two regions in Ghana. Primary data collected from women traders includes women’s time use, the food consumed by children in the previous 24 hours, and the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the traders’ households. To overcome the empirical challenge in estimating the relationship, we focus on the differences in the time spent by women traders in home production due to the differing demands on their time on “market” and “non-market” days. Market days are specified days for markets in a given geographic location. Market days are characterized by heightened trading activity, with more buyers and more competition. A comparison of the diets of traders’ children on market and non-market days allows for the attribution of effects to changes in the time spent by their mothers in home production while keeping other factors constant. The results suggest that children of women traders are significantly less likely to have achieved Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF) and Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD) on market days compared to non-market days. This is accompanied by fewer hours spent by women in home production on market days. However, the paper also finds evidence that in certain scenarios the negative effect of demands on women traders’ time on children’s diets can be mitigated by substitute caregivers and the availability of water infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:339268&r=dev |
| By: | Eloiza Regina Ferreira de Almeida; Renata Narita |
| Abstract: | This article investigates gender differences in wage losses in Brazil resulting from job dismissal and periods of non-formal employment. It examines the wage dynamics of men and women to determine the occurrence and magnitude of these losses, as well as the subsequent recovery process upon returning to formal employment. Using administrative employer-employee data from 2003 to 2018, the study employs a matching strategy and event-study estimation to analyze the transitions from formal employment. Estimations are conducted separately for men and women. The findings reveal that both genders experience immediate and persistent wage losses after leaving formal employment. Women generally experience lower losses (7.4%) compared to men (10.5%), but men exhibit a faster recovery within the first three years after reentering formal employment. Additionally, longer periods of non-formal employment are associated with higher wage losses. Workers who voluntarily leave their jobs experience losses 60% lower than those who are dismissed, and they fully recover their wages within the second year after reentering formal employment. This study emphasizes the importance of examining job transitions and their impact on wages throughout individuals' careers, particularly concerning gender differentials. |
| Keywords: | Wage differences; gender differences; job dismissal |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon1&r=dev |
| By: | Kadir, Kadir; Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky; Rudiana, Eka |
| Abstract: | Measuring the food insecurity of agricultural households is very important in the Indonesian context since the country’s agricultural sector is dominated by small-scale farmers that are prone to food insecurity. Moreover, it also describes the resilience and sustainability of the agricultural sector in the country from the social dimension. However, to date, there is no study assessing the prevalence of food insecurity among agricultural households in Indonesia utilizing a nationwide agricultural survey. Hence, to fill the gap, this study aims to gauge the prevalence of food insecurity among agricultural households in Indonesia. In doing so, we applied the Rasch model to the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) data obtained from the results of first Indonesia’s Agricultural Integrated Survey (AGRIS) conducted in 2021. After applying the Rasch Model on FIES data collected from 212, 339 agricultural household samples responding to all FIES questions, we found that our FIES data provide a reliable measurement of food insecurity in agricultural households. Following the SDG 2.1.2 framework, the final results showed that the proportion of agricultural households in Indonesia experiencing severe levels of food insecurity was 0.29 per cent while the proportion of agricultural households experiencing moderate or severe levels of food insecurity, combined, was 3.27 per cent of around 20 million agricultural households. As expected, those households experiencing severe food insecurity only manage a small area of agricultural land, particularly on Java Island with an average of fewer than 0.5 hectares per household. This finding may suggest that food insecurity exists in Indonesia among agricultural households with limited access to agricultural land resources. |
| Keywords: | agricultural household; FIES; AGRIS; Rasch model; Indonesia |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119416&r=dev |
| By: | Alejandro Estefan; Roberto Gerhard; Joseph P. Kaboski; Illenin O. Kondo; Wei Qian |
| Abstract: | A weakening of labor protection policies is often invoked as one cause of observed monopsony power and the decline in labor's share of income, but little evidence exists on the causal impact of labor policies on wage markdowns. Using confidential Mexican economic census data from 1994 to 2019, we document a rising trend over this period in on-site outsourcing. Then, leveraging data from a manufacturing panel survey from 2013 to 2023 and a natural experiment featuring a ban on domestic outsourcing in 2021, we show that the ban drastically reduced outsourcing, increased wages, and reduced measured markdowns without lowering output or employment. Consistent with the presence of monopsony power, we observe large markdowns for the largest firms, with the decline in markdowns in response to the ban concentrated among high-markdown firms. However, we also find that the reform reduced capital investment and increased the probability of market exit. |
| JEL: | J38 J42 J8 J81 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32024&r=dev |
| By: | de Haan, Jakob; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu |
| Abstract: | The widening of fiscal deficits during democratic elections is well established. We examine a broader set of fiscal outcomes around elections for a large set of emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), probe for differences between democracies and non-democracies, and estimate the degree to which fiscal deteriorations are unwound after elections. We show three patterns. First, primary deficits rise statistically significantly during elections, by 0.6 percentage points of GDP. Primary spending, especially on the government wage bill, also rises statistically significantly, and indirect tax revenues fall. Second, these deteriorations occur in democracies and non-democracies alike. Third, the deterioration in primary deficits is not unwound after elections and the deterioration in primary spending is partially unwound after the election, mainly through cuts in capital spending. These patterns imply that deficits in EMDEs ratchet up over the course of several election cycles. Over time, this can threaten the sustainability of public finances. Finally, we find that better institutional quality (such as strong fiscal rules) and the presence of an IMF program partly mitigate the impact of elections on fiscal positions. |
| Keywords: | political budget cycles; emerging and developing countries; democracies; autocracies |
| JEL: | D72 E62 H62 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119551&r=dev |