|
on Development |
| By: | Bruno Conte |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impacts of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) on migration and other economic outcomes. I develop a quantitative spatial model that captures the role of trade networks, migration barriers, and agricultural yields on the geography of the economy. I combine the model with forecasts of future crop yields to find that climate change, by the end of the century, reduces SSA real GDP per capita by 1.8 percent and displaces 4 million individuals. Migration barriers in SSA are very stringent: if absent, climate-induced migration exceeds 100 million individuals. Still, migration and trade are powerful adaptation mechanisms. Reducing migration barriers to the European Union (EU) standards eliminates the aggregate economic losses of climate change in SSA, but at the cost of more climate migration and higher regional inequality. Also reducing trade frictions to the EU levels attenuates this cost and makes SSA better off on aggregate and distributional terms. |
| Keywords: | climate change, migration, economic geography |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 R12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9948&r= |
| By: | Alejandro Ome; Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of natural resource royalties on educational outcomes in Colombia. We analyze a reform enacted in 2012 that made the distribution of these royalties more equitable. Before the reform, most royalties were assigned to the regions where the natural resources were exploited; with the reform non-producing regions started to receive royalties. We estimate the impact of the reform on regions that most benefited from it, using the international price of oil as an instrument in a difference-in-differences framework. We found positive impacts on enrollment in primary, secondary, and high schools, but no conclusive evidence on academic achievement at any of these levels. **** RESUMEN: En este documento estudiamos para Colombia el impacto de las regalías recibidas por la explotación de los recursos naturales en la educación. Para ello, analizamos la reforma promulgada en 2012 la cual pasó a distribuir los recursos en forma más equitativa. Antes de la reforma, la mayoría de regalías se asignaban a las regiones en donde se llevaba a cabo la explotación de los recursos naturales; con la reforma, los territorios no-productores comenzaron a recibir parte de estos recursos. Mediante un modelo de diferencia en diferencias, y utilizando el precio internacional del petróleo como instrumento, estimamos el impacto de la reforma en las regiones que más se beneficiaron de estos recursos. Los resultados muestran efectos positivos en el número de matriculados en educación primaria y secundaria, pero no se evidencian resultados concluyentes en los puntajes de las pruebas estandarizadas para ninguno de los niveles. |
| Keywords: | Royalties, education, public finance, instrumental variables, regalías, educación, finanzas públicas, variables instrumentales |
| JEL: | C43 D11 E21 E31 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:313&r= |
| By: | Pierre André; Paul Maarek; Fatoumata Tapo (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | We estimate to what extent international aid projects are subject to favoritism. We compare two different sources: Chinese aid and World Bank aid, using differences in differences and RDD estimates based on the dates of presidential turnovers. Consistently with the literature, we find Chinese aid massively targets the region of birth of new presidents, concentrating in its large urban centers but not necessarily in the district of birth of the president. However, we also find some evidence of a less visible and less intense form of favoritism for World Bank aid: it targets areas co-ethnic with a new president without following main regional administrative borders. Finally, this pattern of World Bank aid disappears with democratization, which contrasts with Chinese aid also following the place of birth of presidents in democracies. |
| Keywords: | clientelism, Pork Barel politics, ethnic favoritism, aid, Africa. |
| JEL: | H41 H52 O10 O12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2022-15&r= |
| By: | Diogo G.C. Britto; Alexandre de Andrade Fonseca; Paolo Pinotti; Breno Sampaio; Lucas Warwar |
| Abstract: | We provide the first estimates of intergenerational income mobility for a developing country, namely Brazil. We measure formal income from tax and employment registries, and we train machine learning models on census and survey data to predict informal income. The data reveal a much higher degree of persistence than previous estimates available for developed economies: a 10 percentile increase in parental income rank is associated with a 5.5 percentile increase in child income rank, and persistence is even higher in the top 5%. Children born to parents in the first income quintile face a 46% chance of remaining at the bottom when adults. We validate these estimates using two novel mobility measures that rank children and parents without the need to impute informal income. We document substantial heterogeneity in mobility across individual characteristics - notably gender and race - and across Brazilian regions. Leveraging children who migrate at different ages, we estimate that causal place effects explain 57% of the large spatial variation in mobility. Finally, assortative mating plays a strong role in household income persistence, and parental income is also strongly associated with several key long-term outcomes such as education, teenage pregnancy, occupation, mortality, and victimization. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Inequality, Brazil, Migration, Place Effects |
| JEL: | J62 D31 I31 R23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp22186&r= |
| By: | Stefania Lovo; Samantha B. Rawlings |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of e-waste dumping sites on early child health. We focus on two major dumping sites in West Africa, in Ghana and Nigeria. We observe children born before and after the creation of these dumps, and estimate a difference-in-difference specification in which we compare outcomes of those born within the vicinity of the dump to those farther away, before and after e-waste sites were created. We find that the e-waste sites increase neonatal and infant mortality, for children living in the proximity of the site. Event studies suggest that the negative effects emerge 2-3 years after the existence of the sites, consistent with the gradual and systematic build up of contaminants in the environment. By exploring routes of exposure, we find that the contamination of water and urban farming produce are among the drivers of the observed effects. |
| Keywords: | E-waste, health, infant mortality, dumping sites, West Africa |
| JEL: | I10 Q53 Q56 O10 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9916&r= |
| By: | Wanglin Ma; Sanghyun Hong (University of Canterbury); W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury); Jianhua Duan; Phong Quoc Luu |
| Abstract: | This study uses a meta-analysis to synthesize the effects of agricultural cooperative membership on the yield of crops and livestock. It collects 158 estimated yield effects from 42 studies, covering 19 developing countries. Our analysis finds evidence that there exists positive publication bias in the empirical literature, confirming that researchers and journals have a preference to publish articles that report positive and significant results. After correcting for publication bias, we find that cooperative membership has a small-sized and insignificant effect on the yield. The meta-regression analysis reveals that variation in the reported yield effects can be largely explained by the study attributes such as the sample type (full sample vs. subsample), membership ratio, econometric approaches (instrumental-variable based parametric approach, non-parametric approach or ordinary least square regression), effect size types (average treatment effects on the treated, average treatment effects, or coefficient), agro-product type (grain or others), and climate zones (tropical or non-tropical). |
| Keywords: | Cooperative membership; Yield effects; Meta-analysis; Developing countries |
| JEL: | J54 Q12 |
| Date: | 2022–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:22/15&r= |
| By: | Hovhannisyan, Shoghik (World Bank); Montalva-Talledo, Veronica (World Bank); Remick, Tyler (George Washington University); Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos (World Bank); Stamm, Kersten (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Measuring job quality across countries has been challenging and has relied typically on a single indicator, such as formality or wages. To contribute to this critical policy issue, this paper presents a first global estimate of job quality departing from microdata. It assembles a harmonized global data set of labor force and household surveys to produce a measure of job quality across four dimensions: sufficient income, access to employment benefits, job stability, and adequate working conditions. The results for 40 developing countries show significant variation in job quality across countries, economic sectors, and sociodemographic characteristics, including age, location, and educational attainment. Countries in the Latin America and the Caribbean region have relatively higher levels of job quality, while countries in Sub-Saharan Africa display the lowest levels of job quality. Most workers in the sectors of finance and business services, public administration, and utilities have, on average, better jobs. Higher education matters in securing greater job quality, while the average job quality of wage employment is relatively similar between men and women but with some variation in income and working conditions. |
| Keywords: | job quality, working conditions, wage employment, private sector, global |
| JEL: | J30 J81 I31 O10 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15565&r= |
| By: | Steven Cassimon; Alessandro Maravalle; Alberto González Pandiella; Lou Turroques |
| Abstract: | Individuals’ access to finance is particularly low in Mexico. Widening access to finance would boost growth and inclusion. This paper uses microdata from the National Survey for Financial Inclusion to assess the drivers of and the barriers to people’s financial inclusion in Mexico. Results show that working in the formal sector, the level of wealth and income, educational attainment, and age are the socio-economic characteristics that most affect the likelihood of holding any formal financial product. The relative importance of these characteristics, however, varies across financial products. Economic barriers to individuals’ financial inclusion are strongly associated with widespread informality and a low level of education and income. These results suggest that financial education programmes and credit registries considering a wider set of data to assess informal workers' credit worthiness would be promising avenues to help more Mexicans access financial services. |
| Keywords: | banks, credit registry, financial education, financial inclusion, informality |
| JEL: | D18 G2 G41 G51 G52 G53 O32 |
| Date: | 2022–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1728-en&r= |
| By: | Spyridon Boikos (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Georgios Voucharas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | Is there any specific structure of the financial system which promotes economic growth or does this structure depend on the level of economic growth itself? Financial development and financial reforms affect economic growth, but less is known on how this effect varies across different levels of the conditional distribution of the growth rates. We examine this by using panel data for 81 countries for more than 30 years. We account for unobserved heterogeneity and operate within alternative econometric approaches. The findings indicate that financial reforms are important determinants of growth, especially when a country faces relatively low levels of economic growth. Financial development does matter for growth, however, the size and significance of the effect vary. Financial reforms affect economic growth more than financial development. We reveal that the components of financial reforms, which are more important for economic growth, are the supervision of banks and the regulation of securities markets. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Financial Reforms; Economic Growth; Quantile Regression; Panel Data |
| JEL: | O16 O40 G10 G20 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2022_07&r= |
| By: | Chimere O. Iheonu (Research Analyst, Kwakol, Abuja, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Ekene T. Emeka (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Ebuka C. Orjiakor (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | Agriculture remains one of the major sources of livelihood in West Africa. The sector accounts for a significant share of output and employment in the sub-region. However, extreme weather events have been signaled to affect the sector’s productivity in recent times. In this study, we investigate the heterogeneous long-run relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity in West Africa from 1990 to 2020. Using the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and the Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG) estimators, we show that rising temperatures significantly reduce agricultural productivity in Gambia, Mali, Niger, and Togo. However, after accounting for endogeneity, we find that the negative relationship between temperature and agricultural productivity becomes insignificant for Niger while the positive relationship between rising temperature and agricultural productivity becomes significant for Ghana. Also, the results show that temperature Granger cause agricultural productivity in West Africa. We discussed some policy implications based on these findings. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Temperature, Agricultural Productivity, West Africa, Augmented Mean Group, Common Correlated Effect Mean Group |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:22/065&r= |
| By: | Cyril Chimilila; Vincent Leyaro |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of ICT and e-formalization on tax mobilization efforts in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a panel of 42 countries from 1991 to 2018 and applying appropriate model specifications; the empirical findings show that there is strong support that ICT (mobile subscription and internet usage) and e-formalization (e-government) enhanced tax mobilization efforts. There is scope to increase tax compliance and expand the tax base in SSA (tax mobilization efforts) through the increase in the usage of ICT that can be applied to simplify tax administration, reduce compliance costs, and provide convenience to taxpayers and enhance enforcement. It is equally important that other policies are skewed toward supporting the development of ICT in SSA countries, supporting the application to improve e-payments, formalization, and tax administration. Furthermore, tax administrations in SSA should take advantage of ICT in discouraging the use of cash in paying taxes to help reduce informality, integrate systems that use third-party information collected from e-payment platforms, and combine advanced data analysis to expand the tax base, enhance enforcement and increase taxpayer compliance. |
| Keywords: | ICT, e-formalization, tax effort, sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:22/03&r= |
| By: | Posada, H. M.; García, A. F.; Londoño, D |
| Abstract: | Provision of new subsidized housing projects has proven to be an effective alternative to reduce the high level of quantitative housing deficit in developing countries. However less is known about how these housing projects affect the quality of the surrounding habitat, especially when projects are located in areas with high levels of precarious housing. Using highly granular public information from Medellin, Colombia, we estimate the causal effect of new social housing projects (VIS) on housing quality indicators in the neighborhood. To estimate this causal effect, we use the geological quality of the land as an instrumental variable for a measure of exposition to new social housing projects. Our results show that new VIS projects lead to a reduction of informal housing, poverty, and crime in the neighborhood. |
| Keywords: | Public housing, Informal housing, Neighborhoods, Developing country |
| Date: | 2022–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:020416&r= |