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on Development |
| By: | Tu Thuy Anh (Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam); Dao Nguyen Thang (National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam); Hoang Xuan Trung (National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | <p>In this paper, we explore employment decision of Vietnamese farmers as having five choices: staying on the farm exclusively, staying in the village but partially engaging in local off-farm activities, and working outside the home region for a certain period, in which destination options are Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Other which combines the remaining places. This choice model departs from the existing literature in several aspects. Firstly, previous papers focused mainly on the population that takes off-farm jobs or migrate, that are dichotomous employment choice. More importantly, most existing papers using the random utility model ignore factors in the destination areas. They assume implicitly that either migrants choose their destination randomly or that all migrants face exactly the same migration choices. In our paper, we allow multi-destination possibility, and examine impacts of distance, wages and social network on migrants' decisions. The indirect utility of a given migration option is modeled as a function of choice attributes and individual specifics. Choice attributes for each migration option include wage in destination area, transport between origin and destination area which is proxied by the corresponding distances, and social network of the migrants, while those for farm and non-farm option mainly include agricultural prices and local job creation opportunities. Individual specific include age, education, gender, marital status, share of children and elderly in the household.</p><p> The data used in this research are the Vietnam Living Standard Survey (1998) which is until now the only available data set that provides information on the migrant destinations. We start by estimating determinants of wage in destination areas using full information maximum likelihood to overcome selection bias. Then, we predict wages of those who do not currently work for wage. Finally, we run a conditional logit estimation with predicted wage being one of the explanatory variables to examine probability of migration to each location choice and of taking off-farm employment. Our results show that wage and network have significantly positive effects on all migration choices, while distance negatively affects them. Impact magnitude however differs across destination locations.</p> |
| Keywords: | Migration, choice attributes, off-farm employment, random utility model, conditional logit |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:2208&r=dev |
| By: | Cuong Le Van (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Universite Paris-1, France); Tu-Anh Nguyen (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Universite Paris-1, France) |
| Abstract: | Solowian view on miracle growth rate in NIEs as a result of productivity growth whereas many others (e.g. Krugman [1997]) convince that broad capital accumulation is only true engine underlying NIEs' growth. Krugman's view is correct in the short and mid terms, however in the long term, TFP is the main engine of growth. We show that the optimal strategy for a developing country consists of accumulating physical capital first and there is no research activity. When the country reaches a certain level of development, which is endogenously determined in the model, the technological progress may be generated. Three critical factors: the amount of available human capital; the relative price of technological capital; and the initial income of the economy. |
| Keywords: | New technology capital, Human Capital, Developing country |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:2608&r=dev |
| By: | Minh Thi Nguyen (Center for Economics Development and Public Policy Vietnam-Netherland, Mathematical Economics Department, National Economics University Hanoi, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | <p>This paper is an empirical study of the effect of demographics on economic growth in Vietnam. Empirical results show that in recent years, Vietnam's demographics have been changing remarkably with an increase in the labor force as well as a decrease in the dependency ratio. This change offers a great opportunity for the economy to enhance its economic growth in the short and medium terms at least. The results show that this opportunity has contributed approximated 15 percent of economic growth during the last five year.</p><p>Vietnam's population will probably shift from a demographic dividend to demographic debt in about ten years. Hence it is very important for Vietnamese government to take advantage of this dividend period in order to improve human capital and technology and prepare a time of demographic debt. In addition, building up sound pension and health care systems in the medium term is also suggested.</p> |
| Keywords: | Demographics, economic growth, dependence ratio, age structure, economic dividend |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:2408&r=dev |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Cling (DIAL); Mohamed Ali Marouani (Université Paris1-Sorbonne/IEDES, DIAL et ERF); Mireille Razafindrakoto (DIAL, IRD, Paris); Anne-Sophie Robilliard (DIAL, IRD, Paris); François Roubaud (DIAL, IRD, Paris) |
| Abstract: | (english) The strong growth of the Vietnamese economy over the last two decades has brought about sweeping economic and social changes. In particular, there has been a sharp downturn in poverty along with an upturn in social inequalities (albeit not as sharp as in China). This makes the question of the distributional impact of the country’s WTO accession (January 2007) a particularly keen one. The first simulations made using our micro-simulation model point to mainly four types of redistributive effects induced by WTO membership: job gains (especially industrial jobs), growth in real wages, reduction in gender inequalities, and increase in inequalities between rural and urban areas (but slight drop in overall inequalities). Our findings demonstrate the importance of flanking measures to accompany WTO accession and making the most the opportunities that arise, especially in the area of training, domestic migration, regional policies and assistance to wage earners affected by restructuring. _________________________________ (français) La forte croissance de l’économie vietnamienne au cours des deux dernières décennies s’est accompagnée de profondes transformations économiques et sociales. En particulier, on a observé une forte réduction de la pauvreté, accompagnée d’une progression des inégalités sociales (quoique moins accentuée qu’en Chine). Dans ce contexte, la question de l’impact distributif de l’adhésion à l’OMC intervenue en janvier 2007 se pose avec acuité. Les premières simulations effectuées à l’aide de notre modèle de micro-simulation comptable indiquent que l’adhésion à l’OMC aura principalement quatre types d’effets redistributifs : gains d’emplois (en particulier industriels) ; croissance des salaires réels ; réduction des inégalités de genre ; progression des inégalités entre zones rurales/urbaines (mais tassement des inégalités globales). Nos résultats montrent l’importance de prendre des mesures pour accompagner l’entrée à l’OMC et saisir les opportunités offertes, en particulier dans le domaine de la formation, des migrations internes, des politiques régionales et de l’aide aux salariés touchés par les restructurations. |
| Keywords: | International Trade; WTO; Labour; Inequalities; Vietnam, Commerce international; OMC; Emploi; Inégalités; Vietnam. |
| JEL: | F16 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200803&r=dev |
| By: | Christophe Nordman (DIAL, IRD, Paris); François-Charles Wolff (LEN, Université de Nantes, CNAV, INED) |
| Abstract: | (english) Using matched employer-employee data collected in Mauritius and Madagascar in 2005, we add new evidence on the magnitude of the gender wage gap and on the relevance of the glass ceiling hypothesis recently observed in developed countries. We focus more closely on the role of firm characteristics and job segregation across firms as potential factors explaining the gender wage gap. While the magnitude of the adjusted gender gap is almost insignificant in Madagascar and quite high in Mauritius, our results show that accounting for firm heterogeneity in the analysis is important for both islands. We highlight that these firm effects are the result of gender segregation across firms, i.e. the existence of high paying firms for men and low paying firms for women. In addition, there is no compelling evidence of a glass ceiling phenomenon in both islands. This comparative study then suggests that there is a high heterogeneity in Africa with respect to the situation of women in the formal labor market._______________________________________________________________________________A l’aide de données appariées employeurs-employés du secteur formel collectées à l’île Maurice et à Madagascar en 2005, nous estimons l’ampleur de l’écart salarial selon le genre et testons la pertinence de l’hypothèse de plafond de verre récemment observée dans les pays développés. Nous nous intéressons particulièrement aux caractéristiques des entreprises et à la ségrégation professionnelle au sein des firmes en tant que possible déterminants de l’écart salarial entre les sexes. Alors que l’écart salarial ajusté des caractéristiques individuelles est faible à Madagascar, et relativement élevé à l’île Maurice, nos résultats montrent que la prise en compte de l’hétérogénéité des entreprises dans l’analyse est importante pour les deux îles. Nous mettons en évidence que ces effets d’entreprise sont le résultat d’une ségrégation de genre entre les entreprises, c’est-à-dire qu’il existerait des entreprises versant de hauts salaires pour les hommes et des entreprises à bas salaires pour les femmes. En outre, nous n’observons pas de phénomène de plafond de verre sur les revenus pour ces deux pays. Cette étude comparative suggère finalement qu’il existe une forte hétérogénéité en Afrique en ce qui concerne la situation des femmes sur le marché du travail formel. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gap, glass ceiling, quantile regressions, matched worker-firm data, Africa, Ecart salarial selon le genre, plafond de verre, régressions de quantiles, données appariées, employeurs-employés, Afrique. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 O12 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200802&r=dev |
| By: | Elise Huillery (Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques (PSE), DIAL, Paris) |
| Abstract: | (english) Did colonization change the distribution of prosperity within French-speaking West Africa? Using a new database on both pre-colonial and colonial contexts, this paper gives evidence that Europeans tended to settle in more prosperous pre-colonial areas and that the European settlement had a strong positive impact on current outcomes, even in an extractive colonial context, resulting in a positive relationship between pre and post-colonial performances. I argue that the African hostility towards colonial power to colonisation provides a random variation in European settlement since it damaged the profitability of colonial activities and dissuaded European from settling, but does not have a direct effect on current outcomes. Rich and hostile areas received less European settlers than they would have received had they not been so hostile, resulting in lower current performances partly due to lower colonial investments. Despite the absence of a “reversal of fortune” within former French West Africa, some of the most prosperous pre-colonial areas lost their advantage because of their hostility: other areas caught up and became the new leaders in the region. _________________________________ (français) |
| Keywords: | Colonization, Economic history, West Africa. |
| JEL: | N37 O11 P16 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200801&r=dev |
| By: | Benson, Todd |
| Abstract: | "Undernutrition remains a major source of human suffering and an obstacle to national economic and human development in many African countries. This report investigates undernutrition's persistence, drawing on case studies of the public response to the problem in Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Uganda. Analyzing each nation's policymaking structures, political actors, understanding of undernutrition, and the timing of public responses, the author explains why none of these four nations has mounted an effective campaign to eliminate undernutrition. The author identifes several different causes of this shortcoming, with one underlying flaw in the various public responses standing out: a fundamental failure on the part of political leaders to see undernutrition as a grave problem that undermines development efforts in their nations. The author concludes that an effective response to undernutrition in these countries requires the formation of national advocacy coalitions that can raise public awareness of the problem, highlight policymakers' duty to ensure the nutrition of their citizens, and link proper nutrition to general national development. This report should serve as a resource for advocates, researchers, and others concerned with undernutrition in Africa." from Authors' Summary |
| Keywords: | Nutrition policy, Developing countries, Undernutrition, Nutrition security, Policies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:156&r=dev |
| By: | Delgado, Christopher L.; Narrod, Clare A.; Tiongco, Marites M.; Barros, Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo; Catelo, Maria Angeles; Costales, Achilles; Mehta, Rajesh; Naranong, Viroj; Poapongsakorn, Nipon; Sharma, Vijay Paul; de Zen, Sergio |
| Abstract: | "The rapid growth in consumer demand for livestock offers an opportunity to reduce poverty among smallholder livestock farmers in the developing world. These farmers' opportunity may be threatened, however, by competition from larger-scale farms. This report assesses the potential threat, examining various forms of livestock production in Brazil, India, the Philippines, and Thailand. Findings show that the competitiveness of smallholder farms depends on the opportunity cost of family labor and farmers' ability to overcome barriers to the acquisition of production- and market-related information and assets. Pro-poor livestock development depends, therefore, on the strengthening of institutions that will help smallholders overcome the disproportionately high transaction costs in securing quality inputs and obtaining market recognition for quality outputs. These and other findings make this report a useful guide for researchers and others concerned with the opportunities and risks of smallholder livestock farming." from Authors' Summary |
| Keywords: | Developing countries, Economic aspects, Industrialization, Profit efficiency, Environmental externalities, Smallholder competitiveness, Livestock productivity, Livestock Industrialization, Scaling up, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:157&r=dev |
| By: | Vargas-Hill, Ruth |
| Abstract: | "This paper uses models of irreversible investment under uncertainty to examine the investment and abandonment behavior of poor rural households. It considers the decision of Ugandan coffee-farming households to invest in or abandon coffee trees. The observed levels of investment and abandonment are found to be consistent with models of investment that allow for irreversibility, uncertainty, fixed costs and liquidity constraints. The findings highlight the importance of addressing volatility, irreversibility, fixed costs and liquidity constraints in order to increase households' responsiveness to changes in the fundamentals, and to enable households to recover from shocks to their capital stock." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Investment, Uncertainty, Fixed costs, Shocks, Models of friction, High-value agriculture, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:783&r=dev |
| By: | Kourtellos, Andros; Tan, Chih Ming; Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | "There have been intensive debates on the role of aid in promoting economic development in developing countries by using cross-country analyses. Cross-country regression assuming linear relationship between aid and growth and without taking into heterogeneity of countries would produce biased estimates. To correct this, in this paper we investigate the relationship between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us to simultaneously uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. We also address model uncertainty in the context of these methods. We find some evidence that aid may have heterogeneous effects on growth across two growth regimes defined by ethnolinguistic fractionalization. However, when we account for model uncertainty, we find no evidence to suggest that the relationship between aid and growth is nonlinear. In fact, our results suggest that the partial effect of aid on growth is likely to be weakly negative. In this sense, our findings suggest that aid is potentially counterproductive to growth with outcomes not meeting the expectations of donors... The methodology developed in this paper can be used to identify typologies on other outcome variables, such as those included in the Millennium Development Goals." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Economic development, Cross-country studies, Foreign aid, Public investment, Nonlinearity, Typology, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:694&r=dev |
| By: | Dillon, Andrew |
| Abstract: | "Significant changes in the agricultural sector in northern Mali suggest that irrigation has made a large contribution to welfare increases over the past eight years. Using difference-in-differences, propensity score matching, and matched difference in differences with a small panel, this study estimates the impact of access to irrigation on poverty, production, and nutrient intakes. The findings suggest that gains in agricultural production value do not transfer uniquely to household consumption. The paper tests two alternative hypotheses about the distribution of agricultural gains: (1) the gains in agricultural production induced by irrigation yield higher household savings, or (2) intra-village transfers from irrigators to non-irrigators contribute to informal social insurance. The paper provides evidence of both saving and sharing within villages as complimentary strategies for consuming gains in agricultural production. This finding suggests that estimating the effects of a program, relying solely on household consumption, may underestimate the welfare gains of irrigation investment by ignoring the household's savings and informal insurance network." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Irrigation, Informal insurance, Development strategy, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:782&r=dev |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Thurlow, James; Al-Hassan, Ramatu M. |
| Abstract: | "This paper has been prepared in support of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) roundtable in Ghana. The study also takes a fresh perspective on the role of agriculture for development in light of the global food crisis. It addresses two main questions: what are the impacts of Green-revolution type agricultural growth to reach the CAADP goal in Ghana? Given the large investments required to achieve such productivity-led growth, what is the sector's contribution to the overall economy? Results from the dynamic computable general equilibrium model suggest that by closing the existing yield gaps in crop production and supporting essential growth in the livestock sector Ghana can achieve CAADP's 6 percent growth target. In this process, agriculture supports the rest of the economy through substantial and largely invisible monetary transfers to the nonagricultural sectors, which are primarily driven by the reduction of domestic food prices. Thus, CAADP growth benefits both rural and urban households, and reduces poverty by more than half within 10 years. However, widening regional disparities between the North and the rest of Ghana will increasingly pose a challenge for the development. Additional measures more targeted towards generating growth in the lagging North will be necessary to bridge the income gap and reach Ghana's poorest of the poor." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Poverty, Computable general equilibrium (CGE), Development strategies, Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:784&r=dev |
| By: | Coady,David; Dorosh,Paul; Minten,Bart |
| Abstract: | "Higher world food prices have led many governments in developing countries to adopt policy measures to mitigate the adverse impact on low-income households. This paper sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the relative efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to Madagascar data to evaluate the net welfare impact of reductions in rice tariffs and to compare this to the alternative policy of targeted transfers. Lowering tariffs is not a cost-effective approach to protecting low-income households due to substantial leakage of benefits to higher income households and an adverse impact on poor net rice producers even when the substantial efficiency gains from such tariff reductions are incorporated into the analysis. Developing a system of well-designed and -implemented targeted direct transfers to poor households is thus likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation, especially if these can be linked to productivity-enhancing investments. Such an approach should be financed by switching revenue raising from rice tariffs to more efficient tax instruments. These policy conclusions are likely to be robust to the incorporation of general equilibrium considerations." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | rice, Import tariffs, Targeted transfers, Welfare impacts, Globalization, Markets, Food prices, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:780&r=dev |
| By: | von Braun, Joachim; Ruel, Marie; Gulati, Ashok |
| Abstract: | "1. The facts: Child malnutrition in India India is home to 40 percent of the world's malnourished children and 35 percent of the developing world's low-birth-weight infants; every year 2.5 million children die in India, accounting for one in five deaths in the world. More than half of these deaths could be prevented if children were well nourished. India's progress in reducing child malnutrition has been slow. The prevalence of child malnutrition in India deviates further from the expected level at the country's per capita income than in any other large developing country. 2. The challenge: Accelerating progress in reducing child malnutrition in India India has many nutrition and social safety net programs, some of which (such as Integrated Child Development Services [ICDS] and the Public Distribution System [PDS]) have had success in several states in addressing the needs of poor households. All of these programs have potential, but they do not form a comprehensive nutrition strategy, and they have not addressed the nutrition problem effectively so far. 3. Strategic choices for improved child nutrition India lacks a comprehensive nutrition strategy. Various choices for nutrition strategies can be considered. A review of some of the more successful country experiences suggests that all of them implemented complex, multisectoral actions with more or less emphasis on service-oriented nutrition policies (as in Indonesia), incentive-oriented nutrition policies linked to community or household participation and performance (as in Mexico), or mobilization-oriented nutrition policies (as in Thailand). These choices are not mutually exclusive. India now has the opportunity to “leapfrog” toward innovative nutritional improvement based on the experiences of other countries and on experiences within India itself. 4. Cooperation for policy actions To accelerate progress in reducing child malnutrition, India should focus on the following four cross-cutting strategic approaches: a. ensuring that economic growth and poverty reduction policies reach the poor; b. redesigning nutrition and health policies and programs by drawing on science and technology for nutritional improvement, strengthening their implementation, and increasing their coverage; c. increasing investments and actions in nutrition services for communities with the highest concentration of poor; and d. focusing programs on girls' and women's health and nutrition. IFPRI, in collaboration with Indian experts and international networks, could bring much-needed experience with programs and policies around the world to bear on this effort. An evidence-based, research-intensive approach with “learning while implementing”—which has shown success in other countries—is recommended. There is no time or reason to wait for taking action." from Text |
| Keywords: | Malnutrition in children, Policies, Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), Public Distribution System (PDS), Nutrition, stakeholders, Global Hunger Index, Gross national income per capita, Hunger, Child mortality, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:12&r=dev |
| By: | Quisumbing, Agnes; Pandolfelli, Lauren |
| Abstract: | "Gender norms are an important constraint to increasing agricultural productivity. Inequality in the distribution of resources between men and women is linked with production inefficiency, yet interventions targeting smallholder farmers often fail to redress women's lack of access to, and control of, important agricultural resources. Women are often constrained in access to and control of land, water, and other natural resources; complementary inputs, such as seeds and fertilizer; new varieties and technologies; agricultural extension; labor; credit; markets; and social capital. Oftentimes, interventions will be designed to relieve one constraint, not realizing that gender norms—or constraints in other resources—are more binding and may affect the outcome of the intervention. Without specific attention to gender issues, programs and projects are likely to reinforce inequalities between women and men and may even increase resource imbalances. While individual projects cannot hope to redress these inequalities in the short term, at a minimum, interventions should do no harm, and ideally they should catalyze a change process for ending gender discrimination and securing women's access to key resources. This brief focuses on key agricultural resources needed by poor female farmers to generate incomes and ensure their families' food security. It is organized around key resources and promising approaches to increase poor women's control of those resources. One resource that is not included in this review is human capital. It must be emphasized that investing in women's education, health, and nutrition is an integral part of enabling women to guarantee their families'—and their own—well-being. These approaches were identified in the course of a review of projects and interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. However, while many of these interventions are innovative, most of them have not been rigorously evaluated. Where evaluations have been done, little attention has been paid to the differential impacts on men and women, or to which delivery mechanisms may be more effective in reaching different groups of women and men. Many of the approaches were also pilot projects, and without evaluations it is difficult to recommend which of them should be scaled up. Nevertheless, this brief suggests many promising strategies for channeling resources into the hands of female farmers to boost their agricultural productivity.." from Text |
| Keywords: | Women, Farmers, Gender, food security, Land policy, Water resources, Agricultural inputs, extension activities, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:13&r=dev |
| By: | Kose, M. Ayhan (International Monetary Fund); Prasad, Eswar (Cornell University); Terrones, Marco E. (International Monetary Fund) |
| Abstract: | Economic theory has identified a number of channels through which openness to international financial flows could raise productivity growth. However, while there is a vast empirical literature analyzing the impact of financial openness on output growth, far less attention has been paid to its effects on productivity growth. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between financial openness and total factor productivity (TFP) growth using an extensive dataset that includes various measures of productivity and financial openness for a large sample of countries. We find that de jure capital account openness has a robust positive effect on TFP growth. The effect of de facto financial integration on TFP growth is less clear, but this masks an important and novel result. We find strong evidence that FDI and portfolio equity liabilities boost TFP growth while external debt is actually negatively correlated with TFP growth. The negative relationship between external debt liabilities and TFP growth is attenuated in economies with higher levels of financial development and better institutions. |
| Keywords: | financial openness, capital account liberalization, capital flows, external assets and liabilities, foreign direct investment, portfolio equity, debt, total factor productivity |
| JEL: | F41 F36 F43 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3634&r=dev |
| By: | Francisco Rodríguez (Assistant Professor of Economics and Latin American Studies, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical test of a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. The test is based on the observation that the nonconvexities in the production function necessary to generate multiple equilibria need only be present in the region between the equilibria. Increasing returns should therefore be strongest when the economy is transitioning between steady states than when it is at or near one of those steady states. I implement this idea by estimating the degree of increasing returns during growth accelerations and growth transitions for a panel of developing and developed economies using UNIDO's Database of Industrial Statistics. I find no evidence of systematic differences in economies of scale between transition and non-transition episodes, shedding doubt on the idea that increasing returns in manufacturing generate poverty traps. (...) |
| Keywords: | An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:pubipc:2644396&r=dev |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra; Bernarda Zamora |
| Abstract: | This paper uses two large repeated cross-sections, one for the early 1990’s, and one for the late 1990’s, to describe growth in school enrolment and completion rates for boys and girls in India, and to explore the extent to which enrolment and completion rates have grown over time. It decomposes this growth into components due to change in the characteristics that determine schooling, and another associated with changes in the responsiveness of schooling to given characteristics. Our results caution against the common practice of using current data to make future projections on the assumption that the model parameters are stable. The analysis nevertheless performs illustrative simulations relevant to the question of whether India will be able to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of realising universal primary education by the year 2015. The simulations suggest that India will achieve universal attendance, but that primary school completion rates will not exhibit much progress. |
| Keywords: | Millennium Development Goals, primary schooling, attendance, completion rates, gender, India, decomposition |
| JEL: | I21 I28 O12 J18 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:08/190&r=dev |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the extent to which the decline in childhood mortality over the last three decades can be attributed to economic growth. In doing this, it exploits the considerable variation in growth over this period, across states and over time. The analysis is able to condition upon a number of economic and demographic variables. The estimates are used to produce a crude estimate of the rate of economic growth that would be necessary to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing the under-5 mortality by two thirds, from its level in 1990, by the year 2015. The main conclusion is that, while growth does have a significant impact on mortality risk, growth alone cannot be relied upon to achieve the goal. |
| Keywords: | childhood mortality, economic growth, MDGs, India |
| JEL: | O12 I12 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:08/188&r=dev |
| By: | Sean Dougherty |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, labour market outcomes have improved in India, with net employment rising markedly for the economy as a whole. However, these gains have arisen primarily in the unorganized and informal sectors of the economy, where productivity and wages are generally much lower than in the formal organized sector. It is only India’s organized sector that is subject to labour market regulation, and here employment has fallen. The role of employment protection legislation in affecting employment outcomes is controversial both in the OECD area and in India. This paper looks at the impact of employment protection legislation and related regulation on the dynamics of employment in the organized sector of the economy, using newly constructed measures of national regulation and state labour reforms. We find that while reforms have taken some of the bite out of core labour laws, more comprehensive reforms are needed to address the distortions that have emerged. This working paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of India (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/india). <P>Réglementation du travail et dynamiques de l’emploi au niveau de l’État en Inde <BR>Au cours de la dernière décennie, les résultats du marché du travail se sont améliorés en Inde, l’emploi net augmentant de façon sensible dans l’ensemble de l’économie. Cependant, ces gains sont intervenus essentiellement dans les secteurs non organisé et informel de l’économie, où la productivité et les salaires sont généralement bien moindres que dans le secteur organisé formel. Seul le secteur organisé est assujetti à la réglementation du marché du travail et, dans ce secteur, l’emploi a diminué. L’incidence de la législation de protection de l’emploi sur la performance du marché du travail est sujette à controverses aussi bien dans la zone de l’OCDE qu’en Inde. Le présent article examine l’impact de cette législation et des réglementations associées sur la dynamique de l’emploi dans le secteur organisé de l’économie, en utilisant de nouvelles mesures de la réglementation nationale et des réformes au niveau des Etats. Il ressort de cette étude que si les réformes ont permis d’assouplir quelque peu la rigidité du droit fondamental du travail, des mesures plus approfondies sont nécessaires pour remédier aux distorsions qui sont apparues. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’Inde 2007 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/inde). |
| Keywords: | labour laws, employment protection indicators, job turnover, labour market distortions, législation du travail, indicateurs de protection de l’emploi, rotation du travail, distorsion du marché du travail |
| JEL: | G38 J21 J63 K20 |
| Date: | 2008–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:624-en&r=dev |
| By: | Sean Dougherty; Richard Herd; Thomas Chalaux; Abdul Erumban |
| Abstract: | India’s growth performance has improved significantly over the past 20 years, but has been uneven across industries and states. While some service industries, notably in the information and communications technology sector, have become highly competitive in world markets – yielding considerable gains for employees and investors – manufacturing industries have lagged and improved their performance only recently. A divergence in performance has taken place, with firms in those states and sectors with the best institutions gaining, and those in the more tightly regulated states and sectors falling further behind. As a result, the competitive landscape is uneven across sectors and states and a high degree of concentration continues to prevail in different industries. While this is partly the result of the legacy of licensing, change has been politically difficult, making it harder for the manufacturing sector than for the service sector to expand. The need for further institutional reforms is urgent, focusing on product and labour market regulations at the central and state levels. This working Paper relates to the 2007 Economic Survey of India (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/india). <P>Profil de croissance de l’Inde et obstacles à une accélération de la croissance <BR>La croissance en Inde s’est sensiblement améliorée depuis une vingtaine d’années, mais les performances sont inégales d’un secteur ou d’un État à l’autre. Si certaines industries de services, notamment dans le secteur des technologies de l’information et des communications, sont désormais très compétitives sur les marchés mondiaux – à l’origine de gains considérables pour les salariés et les investisseurs – les industries manufacturières restent à la traîne et n’ont commencé que récemment à améliorer leur performance. Les écarts se sont creusés, les entreprises des États et secteurs dotés des institutions les plus efficaces allant de l’avant, tandis que celles des États et secteurs plus strictement réglementés accusaient plus encore leur retard. D’où un paysage concurrentiel fort dissemblable d’un secteur ou d’un État à l’autre, et une forte concentration, notamment aux mains de la puissance publique, dans plusieurs secteurs d’activité. S’il faut y voir pour une part un héritage du système des autorisations administratives, les évolutions ont été politiquement délicates, rendant plus difficile l’expansion du secteur manufacturier que celle du secteur des services. Il est impératif de poursuivre les réformes institutionnelles, en privilégiant la réglementation des marchés de produits et du travail, aux niveaux aussi bien de l’administration centrale que des États. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’Inde 2007 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/inde). |
| Keywords: | productivity, productivité, réglementation, regulation, specialisation, spécialisation, firm microdata, micro-données d'entreprise, regional concentration, concentration régionale, manufacturing development, développement industriel |
| JEL: | D4 F15 L11 O12 |
| Date: | 2008–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:623-en&r=dev |
| By: | David Dreyer Lassen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Gabriel Helene Bie Lilleør (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper carries out a theoretical and empirical investigation of the role of informal institutions in facilitating intergenerational contracts governing investments in schooling and payments of pensions in the form of remittances. We show, using detailed household level data from rural Tanzania, that informal institutions of social control, rooted in tribal affiliations, determine both the household's investment in schooling and the probability that it receives remittances from migrants. This is consistent with a framework in which households' expected returns in the form of remittances, which is determined partly by the prospects of social control over migrants, influence current investments in schooling. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational contract; social compact; schooling; human capital; traditions; ethnicity; ethnic diversity; social capital; Tanzania; Africa |
| JEL: | D13 O15 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuieca:2008_03&r=dev |
| By: | Gabriel Helene Bie Lilleør (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Primary school enrolment rates are continuously low in many developing countries. The main explanation in the economic literature on schooling is focused on credit constraints and child labour, implying that the indirect cost of schooling in terms of foregone earnings is too high. This paper investigates the effects of future income uncertainty on sibling dependence in the schooling decisions of rural households in developing countries. Schooling tends to direct skills towards future urban employment, whereas traditional rural education or on-farm learning-by-doing tends to direct skills towards future agricultural employment. Given this dichtomy, the question is then: Does future income uncertainty influence the joint educational choice made by parents on behalf of their children and is it possible to test this on simple cross-sectional data? I extend a simple human capital portfolio model to a three period setting. This allows me to explore the natural sequentiality in the schooling decision of older and younger siblings. The model can generate testable empirical implications, which can be taken to any standard cross-sectional data set. I find empirical evidence of negative sibling dependence in the educational decision, which is consistent with a human capital portfolio theory of risk diversification and which cannot be explained by sibling rivalry over scarce resources for credit constrained households. The paper thus provides a complementary explanation to why enrolment rates in developing countries are often continuously low. |
| Keywords: | schooling; human capital investment; specific human capital; sibling dependency; old-age security; uncertainty; risk and income source diversification; liquidity constraints; Tanzania; Africa |
| JEL: | J13 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuieca:2008_05&r=dev |
| By: | Gabriel Helene Bie Lilleør (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | There is little doubt in the literature, that poverty and liquidity constraints can drive children out of school and into child labour in developing countries. But are there other important explanations for low primary school enrolment rates? The child labour and schooling literature often ignores that uncertainty about future returns results in a need for risk diversification, that children function as old-age security providers when there are no available pension systems, that the human capital investment decision of one child is likely to be influenced by that of his/her siblings, and that rural parents face a choice of investing in either specific or general human capital of their children. In this paper, I investigate the effects of future income uncertainty on the joint human capital investment decision of children in a household. I develop and calibrate a simple illustrative human capital portfolio model and show that existing levels of uncertainty can indeed result in less than full school enrolment within a household, even in a world of perfect credit markets. The paper thus offers an alternative explanation for why it might be optimal for rural parents not to send all of their children to school. |
| Keywords: | schooling; child labour; specific human capital; traditional education; intergenerational transfers; old-age security; uncertainty; income source diversification; liquidity constraints |
| JEL: | J13 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuieca:2008_06&r=dev |
| By: | Gabriel Helene Bie Lilleør (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Lack of primary schooling among rural children in developing countries is often attributed to credit constraints and household demand for child labour, implying that direct and indirect costs of schooling are high. Surprisingly few studies have considered the importance of parents' expected returns of investing in their childrens human capital, despite the fact that most parents rely on their children for old-age support and subsistence. In this paper, I propose an alternative model for human capital investment based on the household, rather than the individual child, incorporating the fact that parents bear the costs of educating all their children and face uncertainty about the level and share of future returns. This uncertainty can make it optimal for parents to ensure a certain degree of human capital diversification within the household. The model implications allow me to test whether it is the need for diversification or the costs of schooling that dominate the human capital investment decision in rural households. Using extraordinary long panel data from a rural region in Northwestern Tanzania, I find strong empirical evidence of diversification effects for rural sons, but not for rural daughters. Exactly in line with what should be expected for a patrilineal society. This can potentially have far reaching policy implications. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational contract; social compact; schooling; human capital; traditions; ethnicity; ethnic diversity; social capital; Tanzania; Africa |
| JEL: | J13 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuieca:2008_04&r=dev |
| By: | Yoko Akachi (European University Institute); David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | In most developing countries, rising levels of nutrition and improvements in public health have led to declines in infant mortality and rising adult heights. In Sub-Saharan Africa we see a different pattern. Sub-Saharan Africa has seen large reductions in infant mortality over the last fifty years, but without any increase in protein and energy intake and against a background of stagnant, or declining, adult height. Adult height is a sensitive indicator of the nutrition and morbidity prevailing during the childhood of the cohort and can be taken as a measure of health human capital. Declining infant mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa appear to be driven by medical interventions that reduce infant mortality, rather than by broad based improvements in nutrition and public health measures, and may not be reflective of broad based health improvements. |
| Keywords: | mortality, Sub-Saharan, morbidity, heights |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3308&r=dev |
| By: | David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health); David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health); Isabel Günther (Harvard School of Public Health); Sebastian Linnemayr (Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | There is strong evidence that, in addition to individual and household characteristics, social interactions are important in determining fertility rates. Social interactions can lead to a multiplier effect where an individual’s ideas, and fertility choice, can affect the fertility decisions of others. We merge all available Demographic and Health Surveys to investigate the factors that influence both individual and average group fertility. We find that in the early phase of the fertility transition the impact of a woman’s education and experience of child death on her group’s average fertility are more than three times as large as their direct effect on her own fertility decision. |
| Keywords: | demography, growth, age structure, population, economy. |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3408&r=dev |
| By: | Fujita, Mai |
| Abstract: | Vietnam’s burgeoning market for motorcycles has attracted global industry eaders,players from developing countries, and local firms. This has led to a dynamic evolution of value chains. This paper presents an explanation of the varieties of the growth patterns xperienced by the local suppliers, focusing on the roles of customer and local supplier strategies. Case studies showed that while the role of customers may be important, strategies of suppliers to improve the ompetitive edge in the production of otorcycle components and to diversify into other products account for important ariations of growth trajectories among local suppliers. Findings presented in this paper suggest the need to direct more attention to strategy that local firms use to boost their competitive edge in business. |
| Keywords: | Local suppliers, Value chains, Vietnam, Motorcycle industry, Southeast Asia |
| JEL: | L22 L62 O33 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper161&r=dev |
| By: | Giang , Thanh Long; Pfau, Wade Donald |
| Abstract: | By using household data in 2004, this paper identifies the determinants of the elderly poverty in Vietnam. We find that urban and rural elderly are substantially different, and thus they should be analyzed separately. The results for urban areas generally show that higher ages, unmarried status, residential regions, and working status have significant impacts on the likelihood of poverty for the elderly. In rural areas, higher ages, female, unmarried status, ethnic minorities, residential regions, household composition, and household size are determinant factors of the likelihood of poverty for the elderly. We also found some factors which are less important for both areas, including characteristics of household heads. Remittances and social security benefits appear to be important for reducing poverty of the elderly households, particularly in the rural areas. Based on findings, we formulate policy priorities, including reducing regional disparities, promoting the rural economy, and reforming the social security system. |
| Keywords: | elderly; poverty; Vietnam |
| JEL: | H55 I38 I32 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9927&r=dev |
| By: | Fikru, Mahelet G; Getachew, Bizuayehu |
| Abstract: | Abstract Based on data from 14 Highly Indebted Poor African Countries that received debt relief during the decade 1990-2001 (relief decade) the study examines whether this relief was followed by significant improvements in the countries’ development in subsequent years (2000-2004). Using a comparative and econometric approach this paper found that the countries which received the highest relief actually experienced a reduction in their per capita income in subsequent years where as improvements in growth in some of the countries was not necessarily caused by the relief. The paper also shows that real GDP per capita growth rates declined in the largest relief recipient. Another finding of this paper is that those countries with the lowest share in the debt relief showed some improvements which suggests that a significant increase in per capita income could occur without the provision of great debt relief to a HIPC. In addition, even if the freed resources were used for social services such as schooling and health care this had little developmental effects indicating that the resources were not properly directed to productive activities. Thus this paper emphasizes that debt relief is not a sufficient condition for having growth. Debt relief could be correlated with growth but evidences for causation are scant. The research presents evidence that debt relief by itself did not bring about growth in the sub-Saharan sub-continent as doubling amounts of debt relief was followed declining growth rates. |
| Keywords: | Highly Indebted Poor Countries; Completion point |
| JEL: | P33 F34 F30 |
| Date: | 2008–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9955&r=dev |
| By: | Pfau, Wade Donald; Giang, Thanh Long |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, Vietnam has experienced a dramatic growth in remittance flows. This paper uses the Vietnam Living Standard Surveys for 1992/93 and 1997/98 to study the role of gender in these remittance flows, both from the perspective of receiving and sending remittances. Knowing about gender differences will help to better explain the impact of remittances and to understand the nature of gender roles during a time of economic transformation. We find important distinctions, such as a responsibility among women for the intergenerational transfers of remittances (particularly between parents and children) while men tend to take more responsibility for intragenerational remittances. As well, after controlling for other factors and sharing remittances between spouses who live together, we find evidence that women have a higher likelihood to both send and receive remittances. |
| JEL: | F24 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9928&r=dev |
| By: | Nasution, Zamal |
| Abstract: | Poverty has always been a concern in Indonesia. More than half of Indonesia's 235 million people are poor. The district of Kulon Progo is the second lowest district in Yogyakarta province both in economic growth and welfare level, so less developed among four others district. This research’s aim is to address factors influence the farm development in poverty alleviation and rural development in Kulon Progo Regency of Yogyakarta Special Province of Indonesia. Statistical data were retrieved from Indonesia’s Central Board of Statistic in range of 2003 through 2006. Primary data comprised of farm development by the government, rural poverty in each village, farmer experience in poverty allevation were derived by conducting direct audience with the government officials, head of villages, field farm officials, farmer group units, and field observation. Using purposive random sampling, this research divides Kulon Progo Regency into north zone, middle zone, and south zone; according to the lowest and highest poverty level of each village. Regression model is developed with classical normal linier regression model to reveal each variable share on rural poverty. Simultaneously, this linear regression model explains 70% of rural poverty caused by all variables. Numbers of farmer positively affects numbers of poor rural inhabitants, where the 1% increasing of numbers of farmer will raise 0.922% numbers of poor rural inhabitants. Irrigated land has a negative impact to rural poverty, where the increasing level of 1% irrigated land will eradicate 0.101% numbers of poor rural inhabitants. Numbers of household member is not significant to influence poor rural inhabitants. In contrary of common belief, the significant role of land ownership has a positive impact to influence rural poverty, where the 1% increasing size of land ownership will raise 0.177% poor rural inhabitants. Regression model results land ownership positively affects rural poverty. Taking interview with some key persons in the six villages compared to statistical data explains that poverty rate is affected by dry land productivity rather than wet land productivity. Based on geographic information system analysis, there are some run-off of water bodies in the north zone. These potential flows should be able to support farm development in the dry land. |
| JEL: | I31 Q01 A10 I32 |
| Date: | 2008–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9963&r=dev |
| By: | Giang, Thanh Long; Pfau, Wade Donald |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median values of the status-quo projections show that the pension fund will be depleted in about 2052 with a 90-percent confidence interval range of 8 years. The estimated results from our sensitivity tests show that the retirement age, the indexation method for pension benefits, and the contribution rate are all crucial determinants of the pension fund balance in the long term. At the same time, some factors, including coverage rates, administrative costs, the long-term fertility rate, and the rate of return on pension fund assets play less important roles in determining the fund’s balance. |
| Keywords: | aging; stochastic projections; pension finances; Vietnam |
| JEL: | H55 G23 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9931&r=dev |
| By: | Giang, Thanh Long |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide an overview of the social health insurance scheme in Vietnam, including historical development and current policy issues. It shows that the scheme has significantly contributed to the impressive progresses of the country’s health sector, but it also will face a variety of administrative and financial challenges posed by labor mobility, widening inequality, poverty severity, and expected aging population. The paper also discusses some policy recommendations to improve effectiveness of the scheme, as well as to cope with challenges for further development. |
| Keywords: | social health insurance; health care financing; Vietnam |
| JEL: | I18 I19 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9926&r=dev |
| By: | Giang , Thanh Long; Pfau, Wade Donald |
| Abstract: | By using the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey in 2004, this paper seeks to quantify the potential role and impacts of a social pension scheme for reducing elderly poverty in Vietnam. We simulate how the poverty rate, poverty gap, and poverty severity of the elderly would have been changed in the counterfactual situation that such a scheme had been introduced to Vietnam in the past. We consider a number of categorical targeting groups of elderly people along with various transfer parameters to assess the impacts of the scheme on social welfare. We find that, depending on the characteristics of the social pension, there would be beneficial poverty reductions, but also large leakages to the non-poor people. For a variety of measures, our results suggest that targeting the elderly in rural areas might be the most effective use of limited resources. Also, simulations for different budgetary constraints show that, even with limited budgeting, a social pension scheme would significantly reduce poverty incidence for the elderly. For example, the elderly poverty gap could be reduced by almost 60 percent with a program that costs one percent of GDP. |
| Keywords: | aging; poverty; social pensions; Vietnam |
| JEL: | H55 I38 I32 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9930&r=dev |