|
on Development |
| By: | Friedrich Schneider |
| Abstract: | Estimations of the size and development of the shadow economy for 145 countries, including developing, transition and highly developed OECD economies over the period 1999 to 2003 are presented. The average size of the shadow economy (as a percent of “official” GDP) in 2002/03 in 96 developing countries is 38.7%, in 25 transition countries 40.1%, in 21 OECD countries 16.3% and in 3 Communist countries 22.3%. An increased burden of taxation and social security contributions, combined with labor market regulation, are the driving forces of the shadow economy. Furthermore, the results show that the shadow economy reduces corruption in high-income countries, but increases corruption in low income countries. Finally, the various estimation methods are discussed and critically evaluated. |
| Keywords: | shadow economy of 145 countries, tax burden, tax moral, quality of state institutions, regulation, DYMIMIC and other estimation methods |
| JEL: | D78 H11 H20 H26 O17 O50 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1806&r=dev |
| By: | Cheng,Xiaoqiang; Degryse,Hans (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence on the relationship between finance and growth in a fast growing country, such as China. Employing data of 27 Chinese provinces over the period 1995-2003, we study whether the financial development of two different types of institutions - banks and non-bank financial institutions - have a (significantly different) impact on local economic growth. Our findings indicate that only banking development shows a statistically significant and economically relevant impact on local economic growth. |
| Keywords: | growth;financial development;Chinese provinces;banks |
| JEL: | E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200682&r=dev |
| By: | Amartya Lahiri; Kei-Mu Yi |
| Abstract: | In this paper the authors study the economic evolution between 1960 and 1995 of two states in India — Maharashtra and West Bengal. In 1960, West Bengal’s per capita income exceeded that of Maharashtra. By 1995, it had fallen to just 69 percent of Maharashtra’s per capita income. The authors employ a "wedge" methodology based on the first order conditions of a multi-sector neoclassical growth model to ascertain the sources of the divergent economic performances. Their diagnostic analysis reveals that a large part of West Bengal’s development woes can be attributed to: (a) low sectoral productivity, especially in manufacturing and services; and (b) sectoral misallocation in labor markets. These patterns, together with additional evidence on developments in the labor market, the manufacturing sector, and voting behavior, suggest a systematic worsening of the business environment in manufacturing in West Bengal during this period. |
| Keywords: | India |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:06-16&r=dev |
| By: | Marina Azzimonti-Renzo; Eva de Francisco; Per Krusell |
| Abstract: | We explore a political economy model of labor subsidies, extending Meltzer and Richard's median voter model to a dynamic setting. We explore only one source of heterogeneity: initial wealth. As a consequence, given an operative wealth effect, poorer agents work harder, and if the agent with median wealth is poorer than average, a politico-economic equilibrium will feature a subsidy to labor. The dynamic model does not have capital, but it has perfect markets for borrowing and lending. Because tax rates influence interest rates, another channel for redistribution appears, since a decrease in current interest rates favors agents with a negative (below-average) asset position. ; By the same token - and as is typically the case in dynamic politico-economic models with rational agents - the setting features time-inconsistency: the median voter would like to commit to not manipulating interest rates in the future. Under commitment, and under the assumption that preferences admit aggregation, we show that labor subsidies subsist only for one period; after that, subsidies are zero. That is, under commitment, the median voter takes advantage of the voting power once and for all. His wealth moves closer to that of the mean (which is zero), but afterwards he refrains voluntarily from further subsidization. Under lack of commitment, which we analyze formally by looking at the Markov-perfect (time-consistent) equilibrium in a game between successive median voters in the same environment. Instead, subsidies persist - they are constant over time - and are more distortionary than under commitment. Moreover, in the situation without commitment, the median voter does not manage to reduce asset inequality, unlike in the commitment case. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:06-09&r=dev |
| By: | Galina Hale; Cheryl Long |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data, we find that the presence of foreign firms in China is positively associated with the performance of private firms, but is negatively associated with the performance of state owned enterprises (SOEs). In particular: (1) the presence of foreign direct investment (FDI) is aggravating the differences in the wages and the quality of skilled workers between SOEs and private firms; (2) the total factor productivity (TFP) and market share tend to be lower in the presence of FDI for SOEs, but not for the private firms; (3) FDI presence is positively associated with private firms' sales, especially their sales to foreign firms and foreign consumers, but not with the sales of SOEs. We argue that these differences are due to the fact that private firms have more flexible wage and personnel policies, which allows them to attract talents that facilitate positive FDI spillovers. In addition, we find that regulatory environment has improved for private firms in the cities and industries with high FDI presence. |
| Keywords: | Investments, Foreign ; China |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-25&r=dev |
| By: | Block, Paul J.; Strzepek, Kenneth; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and non-agricultural commodities. An agro-economic model, including mean climate variables, was developed to assess irrigation and road construction investment strategies in comparison to a baseline scenario over a 12-year time horizon. The motivation for this work is to evaluate whether the inclusion of climate variability in the model has a significant effect on prospective investment strategies and the resulting country-wide economy. The mean climate model is transformed into a variable climate model by dynamically adding yearly climate-yield factors, which influence agricultural production levels and linkages to non-agricultural goods. Nine sets of variable climate data are processed by the new model to produce an ensemble of potential economic prediction indicators. Analysis of gross domestic product and poverty rate reveal a significant overestimation of the country's future welfare by the mean climate model method, in comparison to probability density functions created from the variable climate ensemble. The ensemble is further utilized to demonstrate risk assessment capabilities. The addition of climate variability to the agro-economic model provides a framework, including realistic ranges of economic values, from which Ethiopian planners may make strategic decisions." Authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Climate variability, Water, Droughts, Flooding, Irrigation Economic aspects, Road construction Economic aspects, Investments, Economic situation, Agro-economic model, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:eptddp:150&r=dev |
| By: | Nagarajan, Latha; Pardey, Philip G.; Smale, Melinda |
| Abstract: | "Changes in India's seed regulations during the 1990s favored the growth of privately- as compared to publicly-funded sectors. Most advances have been made in the major millet crops, sorghum and pearl millet, as compared to finger millet and other minor millet crops, which in many ways dependent on local markets for seed purposes. In this study, we have analyzed the evolving interactions between formal systems related to the delivery of modern varieties and informal systems for maintaining traditional seeds in the semi-arid regions of India. It is evident that in these marginal environments, crop and variety use decisions, and the crop biodiversity levels take place within the context of local seed markets and a national seed industry. The outcome of the study would help to identify potential entry points for millet crop improvement and related seed system interventions for marginal environments of India." Authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Seed systems, Seed industry and trade, Seed supply, Diversity, Markets, Local markets, Formal seed sector, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:eptddp:151&r=dev |
| By: | Di Falco, Salvatore; Chavas, Jean-Paul; Smale, Melinda |
| Abstract: | "This paper investigates the effects of wheat genetic diversity and land degradation on risk and agricultural productivity in less favored production environments of a developing agricultural economy. Drawing production data from household survey conducted in the highlands of Ethiopia, we estimate a stochastic production function to evaluate the effects of variety richness, land degradation, and their interaction on the mean and the variance of wheat yield. Ethiopia is a centre of diversity for durum wheat and farmers manage complex variety mixtures on multiple plots. Econometric evidence shows that variety richness increases farm productivity. Variety richness also reduces yield variability but only for high levels of genetic diversity. Simulations with estimated parameters illustrate how planting more diverse durum wheat varieties on multiple plots contributes to improving farmer's welfare." Authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Land degradation, Wheat production, productivity, Risk, Genetic diversity, Household surveys, Stochastic analysis, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:eptddp:153&r=dev |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | "While nutritional intake in early childhood provides the basis for a child's health capital, investments in schooling provide the basis for a child's knowledge capital. That store of knowledge, in turn, will eventually be rewarded in the labor market. Does the good health built up by the child in his early years affect his educational achievement and his future success? This paper addresses that question based on panel data from South Africa." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Children Nutrition, Health capital, Height-for-age, Schooling, Investments, South Africa, Nutrition Evaluation, Nutritional status, Household resource allocation, Households Economic aspects, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fcndbr:203&r=dev |
| By: | Simler, Kenneth R. |
| Abstract: | "This paper explores the possibility of applying.. methods... known as small-area estimation to the study of children's nutritional status as measured by anthropometry. This research in Tanzania is the first attempt to map nutrition in an African country using small-area estimation. The study asks two questions: first, is nutrition mapping feasible? Second, what is the spatial distribution of undernutrition in Tanzania?...The answer to the question of whether nutrition mapping is feasible is a qualified “yes.” Although the models of children's nutritional status are not as successful as poverty mapping models at explaining variation, the spatial pattern of undernutrition at the district level seems plausible." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Nutrition mapping, malnutrition, Anthropometry, Small area estimation, Tanzania, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fcndbr:204&r=dev |
| By: | Benson, Todd |
| Abstract: | "This study aims to assess the value of poverty mapping to public-works projects undertaken by the World Food Programme (WFP) with the government of Malawi in its Food for Assets and Development (FFASD) program....Poverty mapping is a useful decisionmaking tool in targeting relief and development programs, and it provides objective and nonpolitical information that is also helpful in prioritizing areas for poverty alleviation projects and emergency food aid relief." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Poverty mapping, food security, Malawi, Food relief, Targeting, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fcndbr:205&r=dev |
| By: | Maluccio, John A.; Hoddinott, John; Behrman, Jere R.; Martorell, Reynaldo; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Stein, Aryeh D. |
| Abstract: | "Studies have shown that malnourished children in developing countries score lower on tests of cognitive function and fail to acquire fine motor skills at the normal rate. Do the effects of nourishment—good or bad—in early childhood linger into adolescence and adulthood, or do they fade away after a few years? This paper provides new evidence of the effects of early childhood nutritional interventions on adult outcomes, using longitudinal data and methods well suited to address the concerns that have been raised about earlier studies." from Text |
| Keywords: | malnutrition, Children, Education, Nutrition, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fcndbr:207&r=dev |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi; Buthelezi, Thabani; Velia, Myriam |
| Abstract: | "This paper assesses the impact of prime-age mortality on human capital formation and labor markets by examining, first, the impact on adolescents, who may leave school in order to enter the labor market, and second, the impact on adult females who, upon the loss of a breadwinner, may decide to seek a job outside of the home." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | South Africa, Gender, Labor supply, Schooling, Prime-age adult mortality, Human capital, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fcndbr:208&r=dev |
| By: | Ramaswami, Bharat; Birthal, Pratap Singh; Joshi, P.K. |
| Abstract: | "This paper is an empirical analysis of the gains from contract farming in the case of poultry production in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India. The paper finds that contract production is more efficient than noncontract production. The efficiency surplus is largely appropriated by the processor. Despite this, contract growers still gain appreciably from contracting in terms of lower risk and higher expected returns. Improved technology and production practices as well as the way in which the processor selects growers are what make these outcomes possible. In terms of observed and unobserved characteristics, contract growers have relatively poor prospects as independent growers. With contract production, these growers achieve incomes comparable to that of independent growers." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Contract farming, Poultry, Vertical integration, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:mtiddp:91&r=dev |
| By: | Chowdhury, Nuimuddin; Farid, Nasir; Roy, Devesh |
| Abstract: | "Three factors, advent of new technology (HYV), development of infrastructure and market liberalization working in tandem have delivered favorable food security outcomes for Bangladesh. Bangladesh's food-policy has benefited from a liberalized trade regime and a consistent downsizing of the government, all with favorable effects on poverty and nutrition. Post liberalization, the findings suggest a perceptible increase in the cost-effectiveness of the public food grain distribution system (PFDS). The favorable effects of liberalization are also evident in growths in outputs, market size, the size of private stocks, the emergence of a two peak harvest seasonality, and finally in declining real rice prices. The government has moreover downsized the PFDS, making poverty-reduction a priority basis for grain allocation. While imports relative to total availability have remained virtually unchanged during the last 25 years, public issue relative to the availability has fallen by about a half. Average food grain consumption has fallen slightly during the 1990s but in face of rising incomes, this could partly be driven by diversifying tastes. Comparing the efficiency of the private and the public sector, the private marketing margin is slightly higher. In spite of the significant advantage(s) enjoyed by the public sector, the margin being thin is significant. In order to account for the expected global changes under the Doha round, simulations using competitive spatial-equilibrium models for the world's rice and wheat markets forecast increase in prices for rice and wheat by 21.7% and 10.1% respectively by 2013. USDA global CGE models (2001) show figures of increase in wheat prices by 18.1%, and rice prices by 10.1%. These estimates are used in a multi-market model for Bangladesh as estimates for global price shocks. Sensitivity analysis shows that over a range of values involving both an upper and a lower limit, small declines will occur in real incomes and caloric levels of both urban poor and rural landless households, while large farms will experience a small gain in their real incomes. Based on values corresponding to the lower limit, overall effects on food security are however quite small." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Food policy, Liberalization, Government policy, Markets, food security, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:mtiddp:92&r=dev |
| By: | Bouët, Antoine |
| Abstract: | "Trade liberalization is expected to act positively on development and poverty alleviation, both of which have become a high priority of international community...The objective of this study is to examine the efficiency of trade modeling in capturing the benefits from trade liberalization. It will provide a survey of methodologies utilized to assess the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and will examine the extent to which such assessments diverge. The survey also demonstrates the benefits of “complementary analysis”, which utilizes different methodologies to study a specific topic." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Trade modeling, Poverty alleviation, General equilibrium model, Assessment, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:mtiddp:93&r=dev |
| By: | Jorge Braga de Macedo; Joaquim Oliveira Martins |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the design of structural policies by relating second-best results and the complementarity of reforms. It computes a complementarity index based on structural reform indicators compiled by the EBRD for transition countries, assuming that the run-up to EU integration corresponds to a nearly complete policy cycle. Using econometric panel estimates, the level of reforms and changes in their complementarity are found to be positively related to output growth, corrected for endogeneity, and given initial conditions and the extent of macroeconomic stabilisation. |
| JEL: | P2 O40 C33 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12544&r=dev |
| By: | James Feyrer; Bruce Sacerdote |
| Abstract: | Using a new database of islands throughout the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans we examine whether colonial origins affect modern economic outcomes. We argue that the nature of discovery and colonization of islands provides random variation in the length and type of colonial experience. We instrument for length of colonization using wind direction and wind speed. Wind patterns which mattered a great deal during the age of sail do not have a direct effect on GDP today, but do affect GDP via their historical impact on colonization. The number of years spent as a European colony is strongly positively related to the island's GDP per capita and negatively related to infant mortality. This basic relationship is also found to hold for a standard dataset of developing countries. We test whether this link is directly related to democratic institutions, trade, and the identity of the colonizing nation. While there is substantial variation in the history of democratic institutions across the islands, such variation does not predict income. Islands with significant export products during the colonial period are wealthier today, but this does not diminish the importance of colonial tenure. The timing of the colonial experience seems to matter. Time spent as a colony after 1700 is more beneficial to modern income than years before 1700, consistent with a change in the nature of colonial relationships over time. |
| JEL: | E21 O11 O4 O40 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12546&r=dev |
| By: | Jianhuai Shi |
| Abstract: | The Chinese economy has been in a state of external and internal imbalances for some years, which has something to do with the undervaluation of renminbi (RMB). But the Chinese Government hesitates to allow RMB to appreciate because of the worry that RMB appreciations are contractionary thus have negative impact on China's economic growth and employment. The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the effects of RMB real exchange rate on China's output. The econometric results of the paper show that (1) even after source of spurious correlation is controlled for, RMB appreciation has led to a decline in China’s output, suggesting that RMB appreciations are contractionary, and that (2) once the international finance linkage of Chinese economy is accounted for, the effect of RMB real exchange rate shocks on China’s output and the power of the shocks in explaining the change of China’s output are diminished. The paper gives some possible explanations to those findings, and points out that the findings do not necessarily imply that China should continue maintaining the undervaluation of RMB. |
| JEL: | F31 F41 O53 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12551&r=dev |
| By: | Dani Rodrik |
| Abstract: | South Africa has undergone a remarkable transformation since its democratic transition in 1994, but economic growth and employment generation have been disappointing. Most worryingly, unemployment is currently among the highest in the world. While the proximate cause of high unemployment is that prevailing wages levels are too high, the deeper cause lies elsewhere, and is intimately connected to the inability of the South African to generate much growth momentum in the past decade. High unemployment and low growth are both ultimately the result of the shrinkage of the non-mineral tradable sector since the early 1990s. The weakness in particular of export-oriented manufacturing has deprived South Africa from growth opportunities as well as from job creation at the relatively low end of the skill distribution. Econometric analysis identifies the decline in the relative profitability of manufacturing in the 1990s as the most important contributor to the lack of vitality in that sector. |
| JEL: | O11 O14 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12565&r=dev |
| By: | Claustre Bajona; Timothy J. Kehoe |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the properties of a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model - a combination of a static two-good, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin trade model and a two-sector growth model - with infinitely lived consumers where international borrowing and lending are not permitted. We obtain two main results: First, even if factor prices are equalized, countries that differ only in their initial endowments of capital per worker may converge or diverge in income levels over time, depending on the elasticity of substitution between traded goods. Divergence can occur for parameter values that would imply convergence in a world of closed economies and vice versa. Second, factor price equalization in a given period does not imply factor price equalization in future periods. |
| JEL: | F11 F43 O15 O41 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12567&r=dev |
| By: | Patrick Minford; David Meenagh; Jiang Wang |
| Abstract: | The efect of taxation on growth is embodied in a model of a small open economy with endogenous growth. The structural model is estimated on post-war panel data for 76 countries and the bootstrap is used to produce the model’s sampling variation. Panel data regressions of growth on taxation do not reject this model but do reject a model with no tax effects. |
| Keywords: | endogenous growth, taxation, business regulation, bootstrap, model validation. |
| JEL: | H25 O11 O41 O50 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:cdmacp:0606&r=dev |
| By: | Günther Rehme (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology)) |
| Abstract: | Many models show that redistribution is bad for growth. This paper argues that in a non-cooperative world optimizing, redistributing (’left-wing’) governments mimic non-redistributing (’right-wing’) policies for fear of capital loss if capital markets become highly integrated and the countries are technologically similar. ’Left-right’ competition leads to more redistribution and lower GDP growth than ’left-left’ competition. Efficiency differences allow for higher GDP growth and more redistribution than one’s opponent. Irrespective of efficiency differences, however, ’left-wing’ governments have higher GDP growth when competing with other ’left-wing’ governments. The results may explain why one observes a positive correlation between redistribution and growth across countries, and why capital inflows and current account deficits may be good for relatively high growth. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Distribution, Tax Competition, Capital Mobility |
| JEL: | O4 H21 D33 C72 F21 |
| Date: | 2006–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tud:ddpiec:175&r=dev |
| By: | Bayraktar, Nihal; Wang, Yan |
| Abstract: | Banking sector openness may directly affect growth by improving the access to financial services and indirectly by improving the efficiency of financial intermediaries, both of which reduce the cost of financing, and in turn, stimulate capital accumulation and economic growth. The objective of the paper is to empirically reinvestigate these direct and indirect links using a more advanced econometric technique (GMM dynamic panel estimators). An illustrative model is presented to link financial market development with investment. The empirical results confirm the presence of direct and indirect links, and thus provide support for countries planning to open their banking sector for international competition. |
| Keywords: | Banks & Banking Reform,Economic Theory & Research,Financial Intermediation,Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality,Financial Crisis Management & Restructuring |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4019&r=dev |
| By: | Baffes, John |
| Abstract: | After experiencing a boom during the mid-1990s, the performance of Uganda ' s coffee industry has been disappointing. Most existing analyses see the sector ' s problems as quality deterioration, poor marketing position in the global market, weak regulatory framework, and poor infrastructure. Recommendations range from setting up a coffee auction to increasing the share of specialty coffees. This paper concludes that such advice has been largely inconsistent with the stylized facts of the Ugandan coffee industry. It argues that the coffee wilt disease and the effectiveness of the coffee replanting program are the two key issues on which policymakers and the donor community should focus their activities and allocate their resources. |
| Keywords: | Crops & Crop Management Systems,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Water and Industry,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4020&r=dev |
| By: | McKenzie, David J. |
| Abstract: | The paper uses individual level census and household survey data to present a rich profile of the young developing migrants around the world. Youth are found to comprise a large share of all migrants, particularly in migration to other developing countries, with the probability of migration peaking in the late teens or early twenties. The paper examines in detail the age and gender composition of migrants, whether young migrants move alone or with a parent or spouse, their participation in schooling and work in the destination country, the types of jobs they do, and the age of return migration. The results suggest a high degree of commonality in the youth migrant experience across a number of destination countries. In particular, developing country youth tend to work in similar occupations all around the world, and are more concentrated in these occupations than older migrants or native youth. Nevertheless, there is also considerable heterogeneity among youth migrants: 29 percent of 18 to 24 year olds are attending school in their destination country, but another 29 percent are not working or in school. This illustrates both the potential of migration for building human capital, and the fear that lack of integration prevents it from being used. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Youth and Governance,Adolescent Health,Gender and Development,Population & Development |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4021&r=dev |
| By: | Lam, David |
| Abstract: | The number of young people is reaching unprecedented levels in most developing countries. In many countries, especially in East Asia and Latin America, youth populations are at or near their peak, and will decline in coming decades. In other countries, especially in Africa and South Asia, youth populations will continue growing for several decades. From an economic perspective, absolute numbers may be less important than the growth rate or relative size of youth cohorts. Growth rates and the ratio of youth to working-age population reached a peak in the 1970s or 1980s in most developing countries. The worst economic pressures of youth demography may have already occurred in many countries, although significant pressure will continue in Africa and South Asia. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Youth and Governance,Adolescent Health,Demographics,Health Indicators |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4022&r=dev |
| By: | Behrman, Jere R.; Murphy, Alexis; Quisumbing, Agnes; Ramakrishna, Usha; Young, Kathyrn |
| Abstract: | The ages of first union and of first parenting are of considerable interest, not only because of their implications for individual welfare and well-being over the life cycle, but also because they are strongly associated with fertility patterns that are thought to have important implications for the broader society. But the many positive associations between schooling attainment and ages of first union and first parenting do not mean that increasing education causes increases in ages of first union and first parenting. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the impact of schooling on ages of first union and first parenting using data collected over 35 years in Guatemala. It advances beyond the previous literature by (1) treating schooling as behaviorally-determined, which changes the estimated schooling impacts considerably in a number of cases, tending to result in stronger positive effects of schooling for females and weaker ones for males; (2) including other aspects of individuals ' human capital and parental family background, which in some cases changes the estimated impact of schooling attainment a fair amount; and (3) including outcomes, additional to ages of first union and first parenting, such as union partner ' s human capital and union partner ' s family ' s social and economic status, which enriches the understanding of the multiple effects that schooling attainment has on the processes under study. |
| Keywords: | Population & Development,Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Population Policies,Science Education,Scientific Research & Science Parks |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4023&r=dev |
| By: | Duflo, Esther; Dupas, Pascaline; Kremer, Michael; Sinei, Samuel |
| Abstract: | The authors report results from a randomized evaluation comparing three school-based HIV/AIDS interventions in Kenya: (1) training teachers in the Kenyan Government ' s HIV/AIDS-education curriculum; (2) encouraging students to debate the role of condoms and to write essays on how to protect themselves against HIV/AIDS; and (3) reducing the cost of education. Their primary measure of the effectiveness of these interventions is teenage childbearing, which is associated with unprotected sex. The authors also collected measures of knowledge, attitudes, and behavior regarding HIV/AIDS. After two years, girls in schools where teachers had been trained were more likely to be married in the event of a pregnancy. The program had little other impact on students ' knowledge, attitudes, and behavior, or on the incidence of teen childbearing. The condom debates and essays increased practical knowledge and self-reported use of condoms without increasing self-reported sexual activity. Reducing the cost of education by paying for school uniforms reduced dropout rates, teen marriage, and childbearing. |
| Keywords: | Tertiary Education,Primary Education,Education For All,Population Policies,Teaching and Learning |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4024&r=dev |
| By: | Bell, Clive; Bruhns, Ramona; Gersbach, Hans |
| Abstract: | The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Primary Education,Education For All,Adolescent Health,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4025&r=dev |
| By: | Beck, Thorsten; de la Torre, Augusto |
| Abstract: | Access to financial services, or rather the lack thereof, is often indiscriminately decried as a problem in many developing countries. The authors argue that the " problem of access " should rather be analyzed by identifying different demand and supply constraints. They use the concept of an access possibilities frontier, drawn for a given set of state variables, to distinguish between cases where a financial system settles below the constrained optimum, cases where this constrained optimum is too low, and-in credit services-cases where the observed outcome is excessively high. They distinguish between payment and savings services and fixed intermediation costs, on the one hand, and lending services and different sources of credit risk, on the other hand. The authors include both supply and demand side frictions that can lead to lower access. The analysis helps identify bankable and banked population, the binding constraint to close the gap between the two, and policies to prudently expand the bankable population. This new conceptual framework can inform the debate on adequate policies to expand access to financial services and can serve as the basis for an informed measurement of access. |
| Keywords: | Banks & Banking Reform,Economic Theory & Research,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Financial Intermediation |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4026&r=dev |
| By: | Beck, Thorsten; Hesse, Heiko |
| Abstract: | Using a unique bank-level data set on the Ugandan banking system during 1999-2005, the authors explore the factors behind consistently high interest rate spreads and margins. While foreign banks charge lower interest rate spreads, they do not find a robust and economically significant relationship between privatization, foreign bank entry, market structure, and banking efficiency. Similarly, macroeconomic variables can explain little of the over-time variation in bank spreads. Bank-level characteristics, on the other hand, such as bank size, operating costs, and composition of loan portfolio explain a large proportion of cross-bank, cross-time variation in spreads and margins. However, time-invariant bank-level fixed effects explain the largest part of bank variation in spreads and margins. Further, the authors find tentative evidence that banks targeting the low end of the market incur higher costs and therefore higher margins. |
| Keywords: | Banks & Banking Reform,Economic Theory & Research,Investment and Investment Climate,Financial Crisis Management & Restructuring,Financial Intermediation |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4027&r=dev |
| By: | Casero, Paloma Anos; Seshan, Ganesh |
| Abstract: | Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti ' s ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti ' s fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti ' s economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti ' s fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government ' s readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Economic Stabilization,Rural Poverty Reduction,Fiscal & Monetary Policy,Macroeconomic Management |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4028&r=dev |
| By: | Nenova, Tatiana |
| Abstract: | The issue of " an appropriate " legal framework, especially in the case of the takeover market, has been poorly studied in the case of emerging markets, yet it is of immediate relevance and practical policymaker interest. The study makes a first attempt to analyze takeover regulations in a comparative context across 50 countries. It proposes a methodology to create a detailed index on the most salient features of capital market laws, and illustrates the approach on the case of takeover legislation. The methodology allows better understanding of the impact of laws on markets and development, allows a detailed quantification of a given regulation, in this case takeover market rules, and helps determine relevant policy implications. Specifically, the framework permits the exploration of the effects of individual regulations, their substitutability and interplay, as well as the overall extent of friendliness of the laws to investors, or particular groups thereof (such as minority shareholders), and the links of specialized regulation with the overall legal system. Finally, the study explores the effect of the investor-friendliness of takeover laws on stock market development. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Law,Economic Theory & Research,Investment and Investment Climate,Markets and Market Access,Small Scale Enterprise |
| Date: | 2006–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4029&r=dev |
| By: | Peter T. Leeson (Department of Economics, West Virginia University); Russell S. Sobel (Department of Economics, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | Is capitalism contagious? Since WWI, global foreign policy has treated economic freedom/repression like a virus that spreads between countries. Most recently, the "domino theory" of freedom has played prominently in U.S. foreign policy toward Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean during the Cold War, and the Middle East during the War on Terror. This paper investigates the spread of economic freedom between nations. Our analysis considers two potential channels of this spread: geography and trade. We estimate two models of spatial dependence using panel data that cover more than 100 countries between 1985 and 2000. We find that capitalism is in fact contagious. Countries consistently "catch" about 20 percent of their average geographic neighbors'and trading partners' levels and changes in economic freedom. We also explore American foreign military intervention's ability to spread economic freedom abroad. We find that although intervention may increase freedom in U.S.-occupied countries, this freedom is not contagious. Using our estimates of freedom's spread when it is contagious, we simulate the impact of successful Iraqi occupation on Middle Eastern freedom. Even under the most favorable assumptions, we find that U.S. occupation would minimally improve freedom in this region. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:06-04&r=dev |
| By: | Jonathan Munemo (World Bank); Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Department of Economics, West Virginia University, and IZA, Bonn); Arabinda Basistha (Department of Economics, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | The effect of foreign aid on economic activity of a country can be dampened as it can potentially have adverse effects on exports through a real exchange rate appreciation. In this study we examine the long-term relationship between export performance and foreign aid in developing countries while accounting for other factors. The estimates do not show negative effect of foreign aid on exports. The estimated coefficients are mostly positive but insignificant. The result is robust to use of two different export performance measures and different sub-samples. |
| Keywords: | Foreign aid, export performance, developing countries |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:06-10&r=dev |
| By: | Subhayu Bandyopadhyay (Department of Economics, West Virginia University, and IZA, Bonn); Howard J. Wall (Federal Reserve Bank of St . Louis) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the responsiveness of aid to recipient countries’ economic and physical needs, civil/political rights, and government effectiveness. We look exclusively at the post-Cold War era and control for the political, strategic, and other considerations of donors with fixed effects. In general, we find that aid and per capita income were negatively related, while aid was positively related with infant mortality, rights, and government effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:06-14&r=dev |
| By: | González, Germán |
| Abstract: | This work provides a macroeconomic approach and a sound conceptual foundation for the notion of "competitiveness gains", so prone to multiple interpretations, and to make it fit for empirical analyses. Instead of "competitiveness" is "competitiveness gains" the relevant concept, defined as a situation where the economy experiences a higher growth rate of TFP than its competitors. We present a theoretical model of competitiveness that provides a rationale for the variations of competitiveness,associated to the behavior of related variables; then we carry out an empirical exercise which shows that our formalization supports a measurable approximation to competitiveness gains. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness; competitiveness gains measure; total factor productivity; trade and growth |
| JEL: | O47 F43 B41 O41 |
| Date: | 2006–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:143&r=dev |
| By: | Cristobal, Adolfo |
| Abstract: | This work presents a north-south endogenous-growth model that reproduces some recent EU stylized facts: convergence between countries, divergence between the same countries, more spatial concentration of economic activity and higher growth rates. We claim that the ongoing technological reduction of transaction costs can conceivably spur those phenomena, specially if a regional productive duality within the less-developed countries were reinforced by a biased incidence of that fall in transaction costs. A key element is Grossman and Helpman's complementarity between innovation and imitation. The channels that allow for higher growth-rates are migrations and scale-effects in the industrialized regions of the poorest countries. |
| JEL: | R11 F43 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:219&r=dev |
| By: | Cristobal, Adolfo |
| Abstract: | This note derives positive and normative implications about the effects of immigration on welfare and the skill composition of the labor force in receiving economies. The main channel through which immigration affects labor-market outcomes is the availability of new loanable funds for investment, which results in endogenous skill-upgrading. Given their high training costs and their lifelong working period, immigrants self-select as net lenders, which facilitates the upgrading of both new generations of natives and migrants. Under sufficient altruism towards future generations, this induces a Pareto-improvement among the current generations of natives. |
| JEL: | J61 J31 |
| Date: | 2006–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:221&r=dev |
| By: | David N. DeJong; Marla Ripoll |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:213&r=dev |
| By: | James Cassing; Stephen Tokarick |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:224&r=dev |
| By: | Marla Ripoll; Juan Carlos Cordoba |
| Date: | 2005–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:247&r=dev |