|
on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Adrien Auclert; Hannes Malmberg; Frederic Martenet; Matthew Rognlie |
| Abstract: | We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross-sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equilibrium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to- GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change. |
| JEL: | E21 F21 J11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29161&r= |
| By: | Assaf Razin; Alexander Horst Schwemmer |
| Abstract: | It has been well recognized that population ageing could generate structural changes centered around the dwindling labor force, on one hand, and the expanding dependency on the generosity of the welfare state, on the other hand. Ageing-related welfare state policy entails both fiscal issues and migration issues. The paper employs a general-equilibrium model with a policy-making focus, to help understand the mechanism governing the provision of social benefits, labor income taxation, capital income taxation, migration curbs on low skilled and high skilled, driven by the ageing of the population. Greater generosity of the welfare state comes together with policy, incentive compatible with the interests of the majority voters, of a more liberal migration policy. |
| JEL: | F3 H0 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29162&r= |
| By: | Anne-Fleur Roos (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Maaike Diepstraten (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Rudy Douven (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | It is often suggested that problematic debts antecede health problems. In this paper, we investigate whether individuals obtaining problematic debts are more likely to use mental healthcare or social guidance and/or financial help, and whether they have higher mental healthcare costs. We use nationwide individual-level panel data from the Netherlands for the years 2011-2015. We employ a difference-in-differences approach with individual fixed effects and find that obtaining problematic debt is strongly associated with ill (mental) health. We find that average mental healthcare expenditures increased with approximately 200 euro in 2014 and 2015 for individuals who experienced problematic debts in 2013. The effect corresponds to an increase of 30% of individual mental healthcare expenditures because of problematic debts. Furthermore, the use of mental healthcare increased with 7% and the use of social guidance and/or financial assistance increased with 40% after getting into problematic debt. We therefore conclude that policies that prevent people from getting into debt may generate positive external effects by saving on expenditures on healthcare or social guidance and/or financial assistance. It is often suggested that problematic debts antecede health problems. In this paper, we investigate whether individuals obtaining problematic debts are more likely to use mental healthcare or social guidance and/or financial help, and whether they have higher mental healthcare costs. We use nationwide individual-level panel data from the Netherlands for the years 2011-2015. We employ a difference-in-differences approach with individual fixed effects and find that obtaining problematic debt is strongly associated with ill (mental) health. We find that average mental healthcare expenditures increased with approximately 200 euro in 2014 and 2015 for individuals who experienced problematic debts in 2013. The effect corresponds to an increase of 30% of individual mental healthcare expenditures because of problematic debts. Furthermore, the use of mental healthcare increased with 7% and the use of social guidance and/or financial assistance increased with 40% after getting into problematic debt. We therefore conclude that policies that prevent people from getting into debt may generate positive external effects by saving on expenditures on healthcare or social guidance and/or financial assistance. |
| JEL: | I14 D14 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:428.rdf&r= |