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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Carole Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Xavier Chojnicki (LEM - Lille économie management - LEM - UMR 9221 - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Najat El Mekkaouide Freitas (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Angela Greulich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Jérôme Hubert (LEM - Lille économie management - LEM - UMR 9221 - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Navaux (uOttawa - University of Ottawa [Ottawa]) |
| Abstract: | This article provides a comprehensive overview of how the funding of consumption at different ages is shared between the State, the individual and the family. By applying the National Transfer Accounts method for France, we developed a unique database to analyze how the funding of consumption is secured at each age, how its structure has changed over time, and how the consumption is financed in France compared to that of a set of other developed countries. We find that the elderly in France finance themselves increasingly by their own means, even though public funding of this age group remains significant in France in comparison to other countries. Conversely, the young rely more and more on the State to finance their consumption. Within our sample, France is the country where the young benefited most from public transfers. |
| Keywords: | Generational Economy,National Transfer Accounts,Inter- Generational Equity,Private and Public Consumption |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01799724&r=all |
| By: | Papagni, Erasmo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamics of fertility in 180 countries in theperiod 1950-2015 and investigates the determinants of the onset of fertility transitions. We find evidence of convergence in three groups of countries, and distinguish the transitioning countries from those not transitioning. The estimation of the year of onset of the fertility transitionis followed by an econometric analysis of the causes of this event. Instrumental-variable estimates show that increasing female education and reduced infant mortality are important determinants of fertility decline, while per-capita GDP has probably worked in the opposite direction. These results are confirmed by the application of Lewbel's (2012) methods where identification is based on heteroskedasticity. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2020–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemth:301036&r=all |
| By: | Schmertmann, Carl (Florida State University); Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto |
| Abstract: | We develop a Bayesian regression model for small-area mortality schedules that simultaneously addresses the problems of small local samples and underreporting of deaths. We combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on death registration coverage – derived from demographic estimation techniques such as Death Distribution Methods, and from field audits done by public health experts. We test the model on small-area data from Brazil. Incorporating external estimates of vital registration coverage though priors improves small-area mortality estimates by accounting for under-registration, and by automatically producing measures of uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2018–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:syzwx&r=all |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski; Maria Marta Ferreyra; Luca Flabbi; Juan David Martin |
| Abstract: | We develop and estimate a model of child care markets that endogenizes both demand and supply. On the demand side, families with a child make consumption, labor supply, and child-care decisions within a static, unitary household model. On the supply side, child care providers make entry, price, and quality decisions under monopolistic competition. Child development is a function of the time spent with each parent and at the child care center; these inputs vary in their impact. We estimate the structural parameters of the model using the 2003 Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, which contains information on parental employment and wages, child care choices, child development, and center quality. We use our estimates to evaluate the impact of several policies, including vouchers, cash transfers, quality regulations, and public provision. Among these, a combination of quality regulation and vouchers for working families leads to the greatest gains in average child development and to a large expansion in child care use and female labor supply, all at a relatively low fiscal cost. |
| Keywords: | Child Care Markets, Child Care Quality, Early Childhood Development, Female Labor Supply. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wchild:73&r=all |
| By: | Arno Baurin (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Jean Hindriks (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we analyze the Belgium pension financing in retrospect for the period 1995-2017 and then we provide a prospective analysis based on the demographic and economic projections of the Federal Plan Bureau. In the retrospective part, we point out the growing importance of alternative financing relative to the social security contributions. The decomposition of the public pension growth over the last decade between the average pension and the number of retirees shows that three quarters of the growth is due to the increase of the average pension. In the prospective part, we simulate the contributions and pension benefits required to balance the budget, based on different rules: Defined Contribution, Defined Benefit and the Musgrave rule (keeping constant the ratio of pension benefit to wage net of contributions). We then simulate pension adjustment via the "individual retirement account" (IRA) as proposed in Devolder (2019) and Devolder & Hindriks 2019). Under the IRA, the adjustment variables are the accrual rate (which determines the new pension claims) and the indexation rate (which determines the past pension claims). Combining those adjustment variables, our simulations show that it is possible to protect past pension claims and ensure budget balance on a yearly basis. We propose a rule of adjustment so as to equate, year by year, the replacement rate across retirees of different ages. |
| Keywords: | social security, pension, retirement, ageing |
| JEL: | H55 J11 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2020–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020002&r=all |