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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Bratti, Massimiliano; Fiore, Simona; Mendola, Mariapia |
| Abstract: | We investigate how fertility and demographic factors affect migration at the household level by assessing the causal effects of sibship size and structure on offspring's international migration. We use a rich demographic survey on the population of Mexico and exploit presumably exogenous variation in family size induced by biological fertility and infertility shocks. We further exploit cross-sibling differences to identify birth order, sibling-sex, and sibling-age composition effects on migration. We find that large families per se do not boost offspring out-migration. Yet, the likelihood of migrating is not equally distributed within a household, but is higher for sons and decreases sharply with birth order. The female migration disadvantage also varies with sibling composition by age and gender. |
| Keywords: | International Migration,Mexico,Family Size,Sibling Structure |
| JEL: | J13 F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:392&r=all |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Dramane Coulibaly (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we study the impact of demographic changes on the inequality between capital and labor. More precisely, we analyze the impact of exogenous changes in both the rate of natural increase and the net migration rate on the labor income as a share of total income. We estimate a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model on a panel of 18 OECD countries with annual data for 1985-2015. We obtain that the response of the labor income share to an exogenous change in the rate of natural increase is signi_cantly negative a few years after the shock whereas its response to an exogenous change in the net migration rate is significantly positive. This suggests that inequality between capital and labor is reduced by international migration while fostered by the natural increase. We rationalize these _ndings in an original representative agent model where the rate of natural increase and the net migration rate are both modeled. The theoretical model reproduces the empirical _ndings and highlight the crucial roles of both the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor and the participation rate of migrants to the labor market. The model is then used to evaluate the dynamics consequences of permanent demographic changes and, most notably, reveals that in the long run, the labor income share is likely to fall with both the natural increase and the net migration. |
| Keywords: | International migration,natural increase,labor income share,panel VAR |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02278765&r=all |
| By: | Remi Jedwab (George Washington University); Daniel Pereira (George Washington University); Mark Roberts (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | A large literature documents the positive influence of a city’s skill structure on its rate of economic growth. By contrast, the effect of a city’s age structure on its economic growth has been a hitherto largely neglected area of research. We hypothesize that cities with more working-age adults are likely to grow faster than cities with more children or seniors and set-out the potential channels through which such differential growth may occur. Using data from a variety of historical and contemporary sources, we show that there exists marked variation in the age structure of the world’s largest cities, both across cities and over time. We then study how age structure affects economic growth for a global cross-section of mega-cities. Using various identification strategies, we find that mega-cities with higher dependency ratios - i.e. with more children and/or seniors per working-age adult - grow significantly slower. Such effects are particularly pronounced for cities with high shares of children. This result appears to be mainly driven by the direct negative effects of a higher dependency ratio on the size of the working-age population and the indirect effects on work hours and productivity for working age adults within a city. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization; Cities; Age Structure; Dependency Ratios; Children; Ageing; Demographic Cycles; Agglomeration Effects; Human Capital; Growth; Development |
| JEL: | R10 R11 R19 J11 J13 J14 O11 N30 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2019-13&r=all |
| By: | Owen Thompson (Williams College) |
| Abstract: | Large black-white fertility differences are a key feature of US demography, and are closely related to the broader dynamics of US racial inequality. To better understand the origins and determinants of racial fertility differentials, this paper examines fertility patterns in the period surrounding passage and implementation of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which precipitated a period of rapid socioeconomic and political progress among African Americans, with these gains strongly concentrated in the South. I first show that the relative fertility of southern black women precipitously declined immediately after 1964. Specifically, as of 1964 the general fertility rate of southern black women was 53 births greater than the general fertility rate of southern white women, but by 1969 this gap had fallen to 33 births, a decline of approximately 40% in five years. The black-white fertility gap outside of the South was unchanged over this period. Measures of completed childbearing similarly show rapid black-white fertility convergence in the South but not in the North. An analysis of potential mechanisms finds that a substantial share of the observed fertility convergence can be explained by relative improvements in the earnings of southern blacks, and that the historical intensity of slavery and lynching activity are the strongest spacial correlates of fertility convergence |
| Keywords: | Civil rights, fertility, demography |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2019-13&r=all |