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on Demographic Economics |
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Issue of 2012‒10‒27
37 papers chosen by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo University of Montreal and World Bank Group |
| By: | Karbownik, Krzysztof (Uppsala University); Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal relationship between family size and labour market outcomes for families in low fertility and low female employment regime. Family size is instrumented using twinning and gender composition of the first two children. Among families with at least one child we identify the average causal effect of an additional child on mother's employment to be -7.1 percentage points. However, we find no effect of additional children on female employment among families with two or more kids. Heterogeneity analysis suggests no causal effects of fertility on female employment among mothers with less than college education and older mothers (born before 1978). Furthermore, we find evidence for the interaction of family size with maternal education and age. An unintuitive feature of our finding is that we identify a positive bias of OLS estimates for highly educated mothers and for mothers born after 1977. |
| Keywords: | labour supply, family size, female employment |
| JEL: | J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6933&r=dem |
| By: | Krzysztof Karbownik; Michal Myck |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal relationship between family size and labour market outcomes for families in low fertility and low female employment regime. Family size is instrumented using twinning and gender composition of the first two children. Among families with at least one child we identify the average causal effect of an additional child on mother's employment to be -7.1 percentage points. However, we find no effect of additional children on female employment among families with two or more kids. Heterogeneity analysis suggests no causal effects of fertility on female employment among mothers with less than college education and older mothers (born before 1978). Furthermore, we find evidence for the interaction of family size with maternal education and age. An unintuitive feature of our finding is that we identify a positive bias of OLS estimates for highly educated mothers and for mothers born after 1977. |
| Keywords: | Labour supply, family size, female employment |
| JEL: | J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1208&r=dem |
| By: | Lin, Tin-chi (Princeton University); Adsera, Alicia (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Son preference in countries like India results in higher female infant mortality rates and differentially lower access to health care and education for girls than for boys. We use a nationally representative survey of Indian households (NFHS-3) to conduct the first study that analyzes whether son preference is associated with girls bearing a larger burden of housework than boys. Housework is a non-negligible part of child labor in which around 60% of children in our sample are engaged. The preference for male offspring is measured by a mother's ideal proportion of sons among her offspring. We show that when the ideal proportion increases from 0 to 1, the gap in the time spent on weekly housework for an average girl compared to that of boy increases by 2.5 hours. We conduct several robustness analyses. First, we estimate the main model separately by caste, religion and family size. Second, we use a two-stage model to look at participation into housework (as well as other types of work) in addition to hours. Third, we use mother's fertility intentions as an alternative measure of son preference. The analysis confirms that stated differences in male-preference translate in de facto differences in girl's treatment. |
| Keywords: | son preference, child labor, housework, India, National Family Health Survey |
| JEL: | J13 J22 O15 J16 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6929&r=dem |
| By: | Kudo, Yuya |
| Abstract: | In a traditional system of exogamous and patrilocal marriage prevalent in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, when she marries, a rural woman typically leaves her kin to reside with her husband living outside her natal village. Since a village that allows a widow to inherit her late husband's land can provide her with old age security, single females living outside the village are more likely to marry into the village. Using a natural experimental setting, provided by the longitudinal household panel data drawn from rural Tanzania for the period from 1991 to 2004, during which several villages that initially banned a widow's land inheritance removed this discrimination, this study provides evidence in support of this view, whereby altering a customary land inheritance rules in a village in favor of widows increased the probability of males marrying in that village. This finding suggests that providing rural women with old age protection (e.g., insurance, livelihood protection) has remarkable spatial and temporal welfare effects by influencing their decision to marry. |
| Keywords: | Tanzania, Social security, Women welfare, Land tenure, Aged, Migration, Demography, Gender empowerment, Land ownership, Social custom, Widowhood |
| JEL: | J12 J14 K11 Q15 R23 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper368&r=dem |
| By: | Mayra Buvinic; Monica Das Gupta; Ursula Casabonne; Philip Verwimp |
| Abstract: | Violent conflict, a pervasive feature of the recent global landscape, has lasting impacts on human capital, and these impacts are seldom gender neutral. Death and destruction alter the structure and dynamics of households, including their demographic profiles and traditional gender roles. To date, attention to the gender impacts of conflict has focused almost exclusively on sexual and gender-based violence. We show that a far wider set of gender issues must be considered to better document the human consequences of war and to design effective postconflict policies. The emerging empirical evidence is organized using a framework that identifies both the differential impacts of violent conflict on males and females (first-round impacts) and the role of gender inequality in framing adaptive responses to conflict (second-round impacts). War’s mortality burden is disproportionately borne by males, whereas women and children constitute a majority of refugees and the displaced. Indirect war impacts on health are more equally distributed between the genders. Conflicts create households headed by widows who can be especially vulnerable to intergenerational poverty. Second-round impacts can provide opportunities for women in work and politics triggered by the absence of men. Households adapt to conflict with changes in marriage and fertility, migration, investments in children’s health and schooling, and the distribution of labor between the genders. The impacts of conflict are heterogeneous and can either increase or decrease preexisting gender inequalities. Describing these gender differential effects is a first step toward developing evidence-based conflict prevention and postconflict policy. |
| Date: | 2012–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/129730&r=dem |
| By: | Graziella Bertocchi; Marianna Brunetti; Costanza Torricelli |
| Abstract: | We empirically study the determinants of intra-household decision power with respect to economic and financial choices using a suitable direct measure provided in the 1989-2010 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Focusing on a sample of couples, we evaluate the effect of each spouse's characteristics, household characteristics, and background variables. We find that the probability that the wife is in charge is affected by household characteristics such as family size and total income and wealth, but more importantly that it increases with the difference between hers and her husband's characteristics in terms of age, education, and income. The main conclusion is that decision-making power over family economics is not only determined by strictly economic differences, as suggested by previous studies, but also by differences in human capital and experience. Finally, exploiting the time dimension of our dataset, we show that this pattern is increasing over time. |
| Keywords: | Family economics; intra-household decision power; gender differences; |
| JEL: | J12 D13 E21 G11 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:depeco:0686&r=dem |
| By: | Daysal, N. Meltem; Trandafir, M.; Ewijk, R van (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Many developed countries have recently experienced sharp increases in home birth rates. This paper investigates the impact of home births on the health of low-risk newborns using data from the Netherlands, the only developed country where home births are widespread. To account for endogeneity in location of birth, we exploit the exogenous variation in distance from a mother’s residence to the closest hospital. We find that giving birth in a hospital leads to substantial reductions in newborn mortality. We provide suggestive evidence that proximity to medical technologies may be an important channel contributing to these health gains. |
| Keywords: | Medical technology;birth;home birth;mortality. |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2012077&r=dem |
| By: | Arnaud Dupuy (Reims Management School, Maastricht School of Management and IZA. Address: Reims Management School (RMS), 59, rue Pierre Taittinger - 51100 Reims, France. Email: arnaud.dupuy@reims-ms.fr.); Alfred Galichon (Sciences Po Paris, Department of Economics, Address: 28 rue des Saint-Pères, 75007 Paris, France. E-mail: alfred.galichon@sciences-po.fr.) |
| Abstract: | In the context of the Beckerian theory of marriage, when men and women match on a single-dimensional index that is the weighted sum of their respective multi- variate attributes, many papers in the literature have used linear canonical correlation, and related techniques, in order to estimate these weights. We argue that this estimation technique is inconsistent and suggest some solutions. |
| Keywords: | matching, marriage, assignment, assortative matching, canonical correlation. |
| JEL: | C78 D61 C13 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/40&r=dem |
| By: | Ghani, Ejaz; Kerr, William R.; O'Connell, Stephen D. |
| Abstract: | Despite rapid economic growth, gender disparities in women's economic participation have remained deep and persistent in India. What explains these huge gender disparities? Is it poor infrastructure, limited education, and gender composition of the labor force and industries? Or is it deficiencies in social and business networks and a low share of incumbent female entrepreneurs?This paper analyzes the spatial determinants of female entrepreneurship in India in the manufacturing and services sectors. Good infrastructure and education predict higher female entry shares. There are strong agglomeration economies in both manufacturing and services, where higher female ownership among incumbent businesses within a district-industry predicts a greater share of subsequent entrepreneurs will be female. Moreover, higher female ownership of local businesses in related industries (similar labor needs, input-output markets) predicts greater relative female entry rates. Gender networks thus clearly matter for women's economic participation. However, there is a need to develop a better understanding of how gender networks influence aggregate efficiency. There is no doubt that gender empowerment can be the escalator to realizing human potential and for creating a robust platform for growth and job creation. |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,Housing&Human Habitats,Water and Industry,E-Business,Gender and Law |
| Date: | 2012–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6228&r=dem |
| By: | Nezih Guner (ICREA-MOVE); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Societies socialize children about sex. This is done in the presence of peer-group effects, which may encourage undesirable behavior. Parents want the best for their children. Still, they weigh the marginal gains from socializing their children against its costs. Churches and states may stigmatize sex, both because of a concern about the welfare of their flocks and the need to control the cost of charity associated with out-of-wedlock births. Modern contraceptives have profoundly affected the calculus for instilling sexual mores. As contraception has improved there is less need for parents, churches and states to inculcate sexual mores. Technology affects culture. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed012:95&r=dem |
| By: | Bevelander, Pieter (Malmö University); Pendakur, Ravi (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the employment and earnings trajectories of refugee and family reunion category immigrants in Canada and Sweden using two national level sources of data. The Canadian Immigration Database (IMDB) is a file that links the intake record of post 1979 immigrants with annual taxation records. The 2007 Swedish Register Data includes information on all legal permanent residents. Using standard regression methods we compare labour force outcomes of age-sex-schooling-place of birth cohorts looking specifically at non-economic (family reunion and refugee intake) immigrants from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and the former Yugoslavia. We find that the employment and earning trajectories of the selected non-economic migrant groups are quite similar in the two host countries, although earnings are higher in Canada than in Sweden. |
| Keywords: | refugees, immigrants, family reunion, labour market integration, comparison |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6924&r=dem |
| By: | Zhylyevskyy, Oleksandr |
| Abstract: | The optimal balance between keeping marriages intact, despite spousal conflict, and allowing for divorce is a subject of policy debate in the United States. To explore the tradeoffs, I construct a structural model with information asymmetries, which may generate inefficient outcomes. Parameters are estimated using data from the National Survey of Families and Households. I find that eliminating separation periods decreases the conflict rate by 9.2% of its baseline level and increases the divorce rate by 4.0%. Perfect child support enforcement decreases the frequency of conflict and divorce by 2.7% and 21.2%, respectively, and reduces the incidence of inefficient divorces. |
| Keywords: | spousal conflict; divorce; separation period requirements; child support enforcement |
| JEL: | C78 D13 J12 |
| Date: | 2012–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:34813&r=dem |
| By: | Camelia Minoiu (International Monetary Fund); Olga N. Shemyakina (Georgia Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of the 2002-2007 civil conflict in Côte d'Ivoire on children's health status using household surveys collected before, during, and after the conflict, and information on the exact location and date of conflict events. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting both temporal and spatial variation across birth cohorts to measure children's exposure to the conflict. We find that children from regions more affected by the conflict suffered significant health setbacks compared with children from less affected regions. We further examine possible war impact mechanisms using rich data on households' experience of war from the post-conflict survey. Our results suggest that conflict-induced economic losses, health impairment, displacement, and other forms of victimization are important channels through which conflict negatively impacts child health. |
| Keywords: | child health, conflict, height-for-age, sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | I12 J13 O12 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2012-245&r=dem |
| By: | Oguro, Kazumasa; Ishida, Ryo |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs an overlapping generations model in order to demonstrate low political intervention and interaction in the working and retired generations affect the allocation rate in future growth-stimulating public investment and the public pension. It also analyzes the possibility of moving to a voting system that allocates parliamentary seats according to life expectancy. The presented results suggest the following three main findings. Firstly, the voting system is important when population demographics change. Declining birthrates and an aging population may shorten the temporal perspective for policymaking over time. Any theoretical transition from the current voting system to a voting system that allocates parliamentary seats according to life expectancy would thus lengthen the temporal perspective for policymaking, potentially increasing the public investment rate and improving the utilities of the working and future generations. Secondly, when age-based voting turnout disparity is high, the shift from the current voting system to one based on life expectancy and region or life expectancy and age is possible. Thirdly, if both transitions from the current system are possible, moving to the latter would offer greater possibility for increasing the utilities of the working generation and future generations than moving to the former. |
| Keywords: | Public investment, Public pension, OLG model, Generational-based constituency bloc, Demeny voting system, Life expectancy |
| JEL: | D90 H50 H60 J18 O20 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:cisdps:571&r=dem |
| By: | Prashant Bharadwaj; Giacomo De Giorgi; David Hansen; Christopher Neilson |
| Abstract: | We establish the presence of a gender gap in mathematics across many low- and middle-income countries using detailed, comparable test score data. Examining micro level data on school performance linked to household demographics we note that first, the gender gap appears to increase with age. Indeed, the gap nearly doubles when comparing 4th grade and 8th grade test scores. Second, we test whether commonly proposed explanations such as parental background and investments, unobserved ability, and classroom environment (including teacher gender) explain a substantial portion of the gap. While none of these explanations help in substantially explaining the gender gap we observe, we show that boys and girls differ significantly in perceptions about their own ability in math, conditional on math test scores. Girls are much more likely to state that they dislike math, or find math difficult compared to boys. We highlight differences in self-assessed ability as areas for future research that might lead to a better understanding of the gender gap in math. |
| JEL: | I23 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18464&r=dem |
| By: | Arnaud Dupuy (Reims Management School, Maastricht School of Management and IZA. Address: Reims Management School (RMS), 59, rue Pierre Taittinger - 51100 Reims, France. Email: arnaud.dupuy@reims-ms.fr.); Alfred Galichon (Sciences Po Paris, Department of Economics, Address: 28 rue des Saint-Pères, 75007 Paris, France. E-mail: alfred.galichon@sciences-po.fr.) |
| Abstract: | Which and how many attributes are relevant for the sorting of agents in a matching market? This paper adresses these questions by constructing indices of mutual attractiveness that aggregate information about agents' attributes. The rst k indices for agents on each side of the market provide the best approximation of the matching surplus by a k-dimensional model. The methodology is applied on a unique Dutch households survey containing information about education, height, BMI, health, attitude towards risk and personality traits of spouses. Three important empirical conclusions are drawn. First, sorting in the marriage market is not unidimensional: individuals face important trade-os between the attributes of their spouses which are not amenable to a singledimensional index. Second, although education explains a quarter of a couple's observable surplus, personality traits explain another 20%. Third, dierent personality traits matter dierently for men and for women. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional sorting, Saliency Analysis, marriage market, personality traits, continuous logit |
| JEL: | D3 J21 J23 J31 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/41&r=dem |
| By: | Doris, Aedin (National University of Ireland, Maynooth); O'Neill, Donal (National University of Ireland, Maynooth); Sweetman, Olive (National University of Ireland, Maynooth) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of mathematical achievement among primary school children. Previous studies have found that boys perform better in maths than girls, particularly at the upper end of the distribution. It has been suggested in the literature that differences in the size of the maths gap across countries may be explained by differences in the prevalence of single-sex schooling. The Irish education system is interesting both for the fact that a sizeable proportion of children attend single-sex schools, and because these single-sex schools are part of the general educational system, rather than serving a particular socio-economic group. We exploit this fact to test whether the gender composition of schools affects the maths differential at the top of the distribution. In keeping with research on other countries, we find a significant maths gap in favour of boys, but contrary to suggestions in the literature, our results provide no evidence that single-sex schooling reduces the gap. If anything, the gender differential is larger for children educated in single-sex schools than in co-educational schools. These findings are not affected by the inclusion of a proxy for early childhood ability or by the use of instrumental variables to control for potentially endogenous school choice. |
| Keywords: | gender maths gap, single-sex schooling |
| JEL: | J24 I21 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6917&r=dem |
| By: | Takayama, Noriyuki |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:cisdps:574&r=dem |
| By: | Che, XiaoGang (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Humphreys, Brad (University of Alberta, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We test the predictions of tournament theory using data from competitions in the FIS Alpine Skiing World Cup. Based on data from more than 60 Giant Slalom and Downhill events held over the period 2001-2010, female professional Alpine skiers respond to tournament incentives; times in both events were faster in events with a larger spread in the prize distribution when controlling for course characteristics and the number of contestants in the race. In this setting women engage in vigorous competition in response to monetary incentives. |
| Keywords: | tournament theory; womens professional skiing |
| JEL: | J22 J33 L83 |
| Date: | 2012–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2012_022&r=dem |
| By: | Waisman, Gisela (Stockholm University); Larsen, Birthe (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the regional variation in negative attitudes towards immigrants to Sweden in order to analyse the consequences of the attitudes on immigrants welfare. We find that attitudes towards immigrants are of importance: they both affect their labour market outcomes and their quality of life. We interpret the negative effect on wages as evidence of labour market discrimination. We estimate the welfare effects of negative attitudes, through their wage and local amenities, for immigrants with different levels of skills, origin, gender and age. |
| Keywords: | Attitudes towards immigration; Geographical Mobility; Wages; Amenities |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J61 J71 |
| Date: | 2012–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2012_004&r=dem |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell; Rebecca April Yanyuan Wu |
| Abstract: | As life expectancy increases and the retirement income system contracts, households face an enormous challenge in ensuring a secure retirement. Working longer is often hailed as the best way to increase retirement incomes. But some suggest that more work by older persons reduces the job opportunities for younger persons. This contention, known as the “lump of labor” theory, is widely accepted in many European countries and has provided an economic rationale for early retirement programs. However, economists in the United States generally reject this theory, arguing that the labor market is dynamic and the economy can adapt to labor force changes. Nevertheless, “crowding out” has received increased media attention in the wake of the Great Recession and, if generally accepted, could impede the trend towards working longer. This brief investigates whether any empirical support exists for the lump of labor theory. The report proceeds as follows. The first section introduces the lump of labor theory and summarizes the existing evidence. The second section describes the data and basic methodology used in the analysis. The third section presents the baseline results, followed by the results of numerous tests of the strength of the findings. The fourth section describes the results of a separate test for the Great Recession. The fifth section identifies the causal relationship between the labor force activity of the old and the young. The final section concludes that there is no evidence that increasing the employment of older persons reduces the job opportunities or wage rates of younger persons. |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2012-18&r=dem |
| By: | Barbara A. Butrica; Nadia Karamcheva |
| Abstract: | This study uses the Health and Retirement Study to deepen our understanding of nonworking adults ages 51 to 61 and how they support themselves before qualifying for Social Security benefits. The results show that nonworking adults ages 51 to 61 are a heterogeneous group. A large share is poor, with low incomes and limited wealth. But a sizeable share has low incomes and abundant wealth. These individuals are income poor but asset rich. More than for singles, this phenomenon characterizes nonworking married adults. In general, we find that nonworking married adults are significantly better off than their unmarried counterparts. Many nonworking married adults have working spouses. On average, married adults without earnings have twice the per person income and more than ten times the per person assets of single adults without earnings. Additionally, married adults without earnings are 20-30 percentage points less likely to be poor than single adults without earnings. It is important for policymakers to understand who stops working early and how they support themselves. Nonworkers may be more likely to apply and qualify for Social Security disability and SSI benefits. Also, more than any other group, nonworkers will be adversely impacted by any increases to the early entitlement age. Finally, nonworkers are especially vulnerable in retirement because they are likely to have lower savings, Social Security benefits, and pensions than workers. |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2012-3&r=dem |
| By: | Maurer-Fazio, Margaret (Bates College) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a large‐scale field experiment to investigate how Chinese firms respond to job applications from ethnic minority and Han applicants for jobs posted on a large Chinese Internet job board. We denote ethnicity by means of names that are typically Han Chinese and distinctively Mongolian, Tibetan, and Uighur. We find significant differences in the callback rates by ethnicity and that these differences vary systematically across ethnic groups. Not all firms discriminate – approximately half treat all candidates equally. State-owned firms are significantly less likely than privately‐owned firms to discriminate against minorities by calling only candidates with Han names and much more likely to treat candidates equally. |
| Keywords: | Chinese firms, hiring, discrimination, ethnicity, internet job boards, resume audit study |
| JEL: | J71 J23 J15 O52 P25 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6903&r=dem |
| By: | Patacchini, Eleonora; Ragusa, Giuseppe; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | We study labor-market discrimination of individuals with specific characteristics in Italy. We conduct a field experiment in two Italian cities: Rome and Milan, by sending fake CVs to real ads. We find that there is a strong penalty for homosexuals, i.e. about 30% less chance to be called back compared to an heterosexual male and even more so if they are highly skilled. On the other hand, we find no penalty for homosexual females. We also find a beauty premium for females only but this premium is much lower when the "pretty" woman is skilled. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination; field experiment; gays; lesbians |
| JEL: | I10 J16 J71 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9179&r=dem |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou |
| Abstract: | This paper studies peer group effects on marital decisions. We use data from Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). This database contains detailed information on adolescents’ high school friends as well as their marital behavior later in life. We construct a balanced panel for the years 1995-2002 using the calendar of all past and current relationships of the respondents, which allows us to recover the marital status of each individual and of her friends at any given year. Hence, we are able to analyze how the marital transitions of individuals depend on the marital status of their friends. We use panel data, instrumental variables techniques, and exploit the timing of friendship formation to identify the effect of peers on marital decisions. Our results after controlling for various observable characteristics of individuals and their friends show that peer effects in marital decisions are significant. Robustness checks using former and placebo friends support our results, and indicate that actual peers do matter. |
| Keywords: | Peer effects, Friends, Marriage, Cohabitation, Marital decisions |
| JEL: | A14 J12 J16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:we1228&r=dem |
| By: | Shimizutani, Satoshi; Oshio, Takashi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the public pension claiming behavior of the Japanese. First, we perform financial simulations and estimate the expected utility, depicting the typical patterns of pension benefits over a life cycle. We show that the optimal retirement age depends on the beneficiaries’ mortality risk, discount rate, initial wealth, and risk attitude. Second, we use individual-level data from the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement to examine empirically the determinants of the take-up timing. We find supportive evidence that most of the factors examined in the simulation are indeed significantly associated with early claiming of pension benefits for wage earners. |
| Keywords: | Claiming behavior, Pension benefit, Survival probability, Risk attitude, Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement |
| JEL: | H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:cisdps:573&r=dem |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell; Rebecca April Yanyuan Wu |
| Abstract: | Using 1977-2011 data from the Current Population Survey, this paper investigates the often-repeated claim that delayed retirement by baby boomers will result in higher unemployment among the young, a claim which has been garnering increased attention from the media during the Great Recession. It explores both time-series and cross-state variation, and uses state-level regressions and instrumental-variable models to determine the extent to which such “crowding out” exists in the United States. The estimates show no evidence that increasing the employment of older persons reduces the job opportunities or wage rates of younger persons. Indeed, the evidence suggests that greater employment of older persons leads to better outcomes for the young in the form of reduced unemployment, increased employment, and a higher wage. The patterns are consistent for both men and women and for groups with different levels of education. Estimates using elderly male mortality rates as instrumental variables also produce no consistent evidence that changes in the employment rates of older workers adversely affect the employment and wage rate of their younger counterparts. If anything, the opposite is true. Finally, despite the fact that the labor market downturn that accompanied the Great Recession was the most severe experienced in the post-war era, the effects of elderly employment on other segments of the labor market do not differ from those during typical business cycles. |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2012-22&r=dem |
| By: | Luca Marchiori (Banque centrale du Luxembourg); Olivier Pierrard (Banque centrale du Luxembourg); Henri R. Sneessens (Université du Luxembourg, IZA and Universite catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | Population aging is a phenomenon common to all regions in the developed world, forcing most governments to implement structural reforms in order to avoid the development of fiscal imbalances. In Luxembourg, large inflows of – young – foreign workers generate an apparently sound public pension system, although no major structural reform has been implemented yet. In this paper, we study the interactions between demographic changes, labour market dynamics and public finance, by building an overlapping generations structure with New Open Macroeconomics and labour market frictions à la Diamond- Mortensen-Pissarides. We calibrate the model on Luxembourg data and we show that foreign labour inflows are a palliative but not a long term solution to the fiscal consequences of aging, and that only deep – and unpopular – fiscal reforms could solve the expected deficit problem. We also show that without foreign trade, foreign labour inflows would increase the domestic unemployment rate. This underlines the need to combine in a single framework the NOEM and the search and matching approaches. |
| Keywords: | Overlapping Generations, Aging, Fiscal Imbalances |
| JEL: | D91 E24 E62 F41 J11 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:122&r=dem |
| By: | Blundell, Richard William; Pistaferri, Luigi; Saporta-Eksten, Itay |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the link between wage inequality and consumption inequality using a life cycle model that incorporates household consumption and family labor supply decisions. We derive analytical expressions based on approximations for the dynamics of consumption, hours, and earnings of two earners in the presence of correlated wage shocks, non-separability and asset accumulation decisions. We show how the model can be estimated and identifi…ed using panel data for hours, earnings, assets and consumption. We focus on the importance of family labor supply as an insurance mechanism to wage shocks and fi…nd strong evidence of smoothing of male’s and female’s permanent shocks to wages. Once family labor supply, assets and taxes are properly accounted for their is little evidence of additional insurance. |
| Keywords: | Consumption; Inequality; Labor Supply |
| JEL: | E21 J22 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9172&r=dem |
| By: | Owen Haaga (Urban Institute); Richard W. Johnson (Urban Institute) |
| Abstract: | Social Security claiming behavior matters because early claimants receive lower monthly benefits for the rest of their lives. Early claiming fell over the past decade, after increasing over the previous 10 years. However, high unemployment encourages early claiming by less-educated men. A 1 percentage point increase in the state unemployment rate is associated with a 0.4 percentage point increase in the monthly claiming probability by men who never attended college, implying that the Great Recession boosted their claiming rates by about 40 percent. In contrast, claiming behavior by women and well-educated men is not significantly correlated with the unemployment rate. JEL Classification: Key words: |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbn:wpaper:12-01&r=dem |
| By: | Rowena Crawford; Richard Disney |
| Abstract: | We examine the ill-health retirement of police officers in the forces of England and Wales between 2002-03 and 2009-10. Differences in ill-health retirement rates across forces are statistically related to area-specific stresses of policing and force-specific differences in human resources policies. Reforms to police pension plans – in particular a shift in the incidence of financing ill-health retirement from central government to local police authorities – occurred in the mid-2000s. We show these measures impacted on the level of ill-health retirement, especially on forces with above-average rates of retirement. We find that residual differences in post-2006 ill-health retirement rates across forces are related to their differential capacities to raise revenue from local property taxes. |
| JEL: | H75 J26 J45 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18479&r=dem |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (Aix-Marseille Université, Greqam and UCL, Ires-Core); Giorgio Fabbri (Università di Napoli Parthenope and UCL, Ires); Fausto Gozzi (Università di Napoli Parthenope) |
| Abstract: | We study the compatibility of the optimal population size concepts produced by different social welfare functions and egalitarism meant as “equal consumption for all individuals of all generations”. Social welfare functions are parameterized by an altruism parameter generating the Benthamite and Millian criteria as polar cases. The economy considered is in continuous time and is populated by homogenous cohorts with a given life span. Production functions are linear in labor, (costly) procreation is the unique way to transfer resources forward in time. First, we show that egalitarism is optimal whatever the degree of altruism when life spans are infinite. That is egalitarism does not discriminate between the social welfare functions considered. However, when life spans are finite, egalitarism does not arise systematically as an optimal outcome. In particular, it depends on the degree of altruism, and also on the magnitude of the life span. In particular, to be enforced in a growing economy, that is when population growth is optimal in the long-run, this egalitarian rule can only hold when (i) the welfare function is Benthamite, (ii) and for a large enough life span. When altruism is impure, egalitarism is impossible in the context of a growing economy. Either in the Millian case, whatever the life span, or in the Benthamite/impure altruism cases, for small enough life spans, procreation is never optimal, leading to finite time extinction and maximal consumption for all existing individuals. |
| Keywords: | Egalitarism, Population change, Optimal population, size, Benthamite Vs Millian criterion, Finite lives, Growth |
| JEL: | D63 D64 C61 O40 |
| Date: | 2012–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1211&r=dem |
| By: | Danzer, Alexander M. (University of Munich); Yaman, Firat (City University London) |
| Abstract: | It is widely debated whether immigrants who live among co-ethnics are less willing to integrate into the host society. Exploiting the quasi-experimental guest worker placement across German regions during the 1960/70s as well as information on immigrants' inter-ethnic contact networks and social activities, we are able to identify the causal effect of ethnic concentration on social integration. The exogenous placement of immigrants "switches off" observable and unobservable differences in the willingness or ability to integrate which have confounded previous studies. Evidence suggests that the presence of co-ethnics increases migrants' interaction cost with natives and thus reduces the likelihood of integration. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, integration, enclaves, political participation, culture, social interaction, guest workers, natural experiment |
| JEL: | J15 R23 J61 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6939&r=dem |
| By: | Conti, Gabriella (University of Chicago); Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | This chapter presents an integrated economic approach that organizes and interprets the evidence on child development. It also discusses the indicators of child well-being that are used in international comparisons. Recent evidence on child development is summarized, and policies to promote child well-being are discussed. The chapter concludes with some open questions and suggestions for future research. |
| Keywords: | child development, human capital, early childhood education |
| JEL: | J13 I21 D03 D04 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6930&r=dem |
| By: | Hunt, Jennifer (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | Using a state panel based on census data from 1940-2010, I examine the impact of immigration on the high school completion of natives in the United States. Immigrant children could compete for schooling resources with native children, lowering the return to native education and discouraging native high school completion. Conversely, native children might be encouraged to complete high school in order to avoid competing with immigrant high-school dropouts in the labor market. I find evidence that both channels are operative and that the net effect is positive, particularly for native-born blacks, though not for native-born Hispanics. An increase of one percentage point in the share of immigrants in the population aged 11-64 increases the probability that natives aged 11-17 eventually complete 12 years of schooling by 0.3 percentage points, and increases the probability for native-born blacks by 0.4 percentage points. I account for the endogeneity of immigrant flows by using instruments based on 1940 settlement patterns. |
| Keywords: | immigration, education |
| JEL: | J15 I21 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6904&r=dem |
| By: | Bernhard Boockmann; Jan Fries; Christian Göbel |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effects of specific measures for older employees (SMOE) on employment duration of workers aged 40 and above. Using longitudinal employer-employee data for German establishments, we account for worker and establishment heterogeneity and correct for stock-sampling. We find a positive effect of mixed-aged team work on employment duration and a negative effect of a part-time scheme addressed at older workers. Employment duration does not appear to be related to other SMOE, such as training and specific equipment of workplaces. |
| Keywords: | older workers, human resources policies, SMOE, employment duration,linked employer-employee data, age, tenure. |
| JEL: | J14 J21 J26 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaw:iawdip:89&r=dem |
| By: | Pekkarinen, Tuomas (Aalto University); Uusitalo, Roope (HECER) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effects of aging on productivity using piece-rate earnings as a proxy for worker output. Our data contain the population of Finnish blue collar workers in 61 different industries during 1990-2002. A unique feature of the data is that we can observe the exact hours worked on piece rates and on fixed time rates as well as earnings under both performance schemes. We account for the selection into piece rates by using firm-level changes in pay systems as instruments for the probability of working on piece rates. A subset of workers also receive both piece rates and time rates within the same quarter. For these workers, we can directly compare the age profile of hourly earnings under piece rates and fixed rates. The results indicate that productivity increases with age until age 40 after which it stays roughly constant. Wage growth is faster than productivity growth for young workers but after age 40 both wages and productivity grow approximately at the same rate. |
| Keywords: | piece rates, productivity, aging |
| JEL: | J1 J24 J33 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6909&r=dem |