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on Demographic Economics |
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Issue of 2012‒07‒08
fifteen papers chosen by Clarence Nkengne Tsimpo University of Montreal and World Bank Group |
| By: | Ana Nuevo-Chiquero (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of out-of-wedlock conceptions and births over the last four decades. Increases in conception outside of marriage only partially account for increases in the illegitimacy rate: controlling for age at pregnancy, being born one year later increases the probability of being single at first conception by 0.9 percentage points, while the probability of being single at first birth rises by 0.5 additional percentage points. The incidence of shotgun (post-conception) marriage among those conceiving out of wedlock decreased sharply, but the rate is not affected by the level of planning of the pregnancy nor is driven by non-users of modern contraception. However, women in marriage markets (defined by race, religion, and age) with high modern contraceptive use and who conceive outside marriage are less likely to give birth out of wedlock. The trend over time is significantly steeper when the level of modern contraceptive use in the woman's market is considered, suggesting that the spread of the pill contributed to reduce the rate of increase of out-of-wedlock motherhood. |
| Keywords: | Out-of-wedlock birth, shotgun marriage, modern contraception |
| JEL: | J11 J12 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2012/6/doc2012-21&r=dem |
| By: | Gajigo, Ousman; Schwab, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | We analyze the consequences of seasonal variation in maternal consumption on child health using two nationally representative Gambian household surveys. Seasonal fluctuation in consumption stems from difficulties borrowing when incomes are low during the rainy season and saving when they peak after harvest. The resulting fluctuations in maternal nutritional intake can affect birth outcomes and lactational performance. Using mother fixed effects to isolate the effect of birth season, we find that child health—measured by weight-for-age and height-for-age—varies significantly with birth timing. Children in farm households born during dry seasons (February-June) fare considerably worse than siblings born in other seasons. |
| Keywords: | Child, Maternal Health, Consumption, Agriculture, Seasonal, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, D13, I12, I15, Q12, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:125788&r=dem |
| By: | Arndt, Channing; Benfica, Rui M.S.; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | We use a gendered dynamic CGE model to assess the implications of biofuels expansion in a low-income, land-abundant setting. Mozambique is chosen as a representative case. We compare scenarios with different gender employment intensities in producing jatropha feedstock for biodiesel. Under all scenarios, biofuels investments accelerate GDP growth and reduce poverty. However, a stronger trade-off between biofuels and food availability emerges when female labor is used intensively, as women are drawn away from food production. A skills-shortage amongst female workers also limits poverty reduction. Policy simulations indicate that only modest improvements in women’s education and food crop yields are needed to address food security concerns and ensure broader-based benefits from biofuels investments. |
| Keywords: | Biofuels, gender, growth, poverty, land abundance, Africa, Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:125395&r=dem |
| By: | Hutchens, Robert M. (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the problem of measuring segregation when groups form a hierarchy whereby some groups have greater economic status than others. While existing measures of segregation address the case where people are unequally distributed across groups with the same economic status, concern often focuses on groups with different status, e.g., occupational segregation where women have limited access to high wage occupations. This paper first defines a class of segregation indexes that encompasses both the "same economic status" and "different economic status" case. It then proposes two methods for incorporating economic status into empirical work. One is to rank groups from highest to lowest economic status and apply the dominance criteria in Theorem 2. The other is to invoke a cardinal measure of group economic status and then compute a numerical index. Finally, a numerical index of segregation is introduced, and both methods are used to analyze U.S. occupational segregation by gender and ethnicity. |
| Keywords: | inequality, segregation, occupational segregation, inequality index, Lorenz dominance |
| JEL: | C43 C81 D63 J15 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6667&r=dem |
| By: | Peeters, Marga |
| Abstract: | According to the life-cycle theory, countries with high and rising youth ratios or high and rising old-age ratios tend to have low savings relative to investment, which depresses their capital outflows. This paper puts life-cycle theory to the test and studies the impact of demographic change on international capital flows in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the Southern European countries Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal (GISP). These two regions are asymmetric in that MENA has a young population whereas the population of GISP has been ageing rapidly. Moreover, MENA has a lower standard of living an is a much more closed economy, which may effect the ability to save and its impact on cross-border capital flows. The empirical analyses in this paper cover the period 1980-2011 and partly support the life-cycle theory for these two regions. Youth rates depressed domestic savings significantly in both the MENA and GISP regions, while ageing as well as population growth had a positive impact in the GISP region. Also, domestic savings significantly caused international capital flows. |
| Keywords: | Demography; international capital flows; savings; ageing; |
| JEL: | F4 F2 F3 D91 C31 E21 J11 |
| Date: | 2012–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39635&r=dem |
| By: | Bruno Martorano; Chris De Neubourg; Marco Sanfilippo; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre |
| Abstract: | Social protection is particularly important for children, in view of their higher levels of vulnerability compared to adults, and the role that social protection can play in ensuring adequate nutrition, access to and utilization of social services. While existing evidence shows that social protection programmes successfully address several dimensions of child well-being -often in an indirect way - a move towards a more "child sensitive" approach to social protection has recently been advocated at the highest level in the international development community. |
| Keywords: | child protection; education; evaluation; health; nutrition; policy and planning; policy goals; social protection; |
| JEL: | H0 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa666&r=dem |
| By: | Yuki, Kazuhiro |
| Abstract: | Disparities in economic outcomes among different ethnic, racial, or religious groups continue to be serious concerns in most economies. Relative economic standings of different groups are rather persistent, although some groups initially in disadvantaged positions successfully caught up with then-advantaged groups. Two obstacles, costly skill investment and negative stereotypes or discriminations in the labor market, seem to distort investment and sectoral decisions and slow down the economic progress of the disadvantaged. How do these obstacles affect skill investment and sectoral choices of individuals of different groups and the dynamics of their economic outcomes and inter-group inequality? Is affirmative action necessary to significantly improve conditions of the disadvantaged, or redistributive policies sufficient? In order to tackle these questions, this paper develops a dynamic model of statistical discrimination and examines how initial economic standings of groups and initial institutionalized discrimination affect subsequent dynamics. |
| Keywords: | ethnic or racial inequality; statistical discrimination; labor market segregation; skill investment |
| JEL: | J62 J31 O17 J71 J15 J24 |
| Date: | 2012–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39704&r=dem |
| By: | Rahman, A. |
| Abstract: | This thesis analyses intrahousehold resource allocation issues related to nutrition and food distribution, nutrient demand, and child health and nutrition outcomes in rural Bangladesh using relevant microeconometric methods and their application to household surveys. Using a measure of bargaining power — spouses’ assets at marriage — that is culturally relevant and (weakly) exogenous to household decision making process, I find strong evidence of intrahousehold bargaining on nutrient allocation and on distribution of food from relatively expensive sources. In this regard, a wife’s bargaining power positively affect the allocation of the adult females at the expense of that of adult males. The bargaining effects are significant even after controlling for unobserved household characteristics and potential health-nutrition-labour market linkages. Spouses’ preference and bargaining also tend to vary at different income levels. At the low income level, a wife prefers preschooler boys to preschoolers girls while the preschooler girls to preschooler boys at the middle income level in intrahousehold food distribution. Son-preference in intrahousehold food distribution is also guided by cultural norms and appears to be prominent in non-poor households as opposed to poor households in Bangladesh. Using a characteristic demand framework, I also find that individuals’ intakes of calorie, macronutrients, and a set of micronutrients are inelastic to implicit calorie price while the own and cross implicit price elasticities for a range of critical micronutrients are highly elastic to implicit micronutrient prices. Calorie intake appears to be highly inelastic for both poor and non-poor while both the macro and micronutrient intakes of the poor compared to that of the non-poor are more responsive to implicit macro and micronutrient prices. Finally, analysing the effect of household structure on child outcomes, I find that child education, but not health outcomes, to be substantially better in nuclear families than in extended families. These findings have important implications in terms of malnutrition, food policy, and human capital formation in a poor rural economy. |
| Date: | 2012–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:ucllon:http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1348139/&r=dem |
| By: | Bollinger, Christopher R.; Nicoletti, Cheti; Pudney, Stephen |
| Abstract: | To measure poverty, incomes must be equivalized across households with different structures. In this paper, we use a very flexible ordered response model to analyze the relationship be- tween income, demographic structure and subjective assessments of financial wellbeing drawn from the 1991-2008 British Household Panel Survey. Our results suggest the existence of large scale economies within marital/cohabiting couples, but substantial diseconomies from the addition of children or further adults. This pattern contrasts sharply with commonly-used equivalence scales, and is consistent with explanations in terms of the capital requirements associated with additions to the core couple. |
| Date: | 2012–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2012-10&r=dem |
| By: | Yunus Aksoy (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck); Tobias Grasl (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck); Ron P Smith (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of demographic structure, the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies, mainly for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main macroeconomic variables allows us to estimate long-run effects of demographic structure on the individual countries. Our estimates confirm the importance of these effects. |
| Keywords: | demographic changes, macroeconomic variables, business cycle |
| JEL: | E32 J11 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1212&r=dem |
| By: | Eriksson, Stefan (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies); Johansson, Per (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies); Langenskiöld, Sophie (IFAU) |
| Abstract: | We study the recruitment behavior of Swedish employers using data from a stated choice experiment. In the experiment, the employers are first asked to describe an employee who recently and voluntarily left the firm, and then to choose between two hypothetical applicants to invite to a job interview or to hire as a replacement for their previous employee. The two applicants differ with respect to characteristics such as gender, age, education, experience, ethnicity, religious beliefs, family situation, weight, and health. Our results show that employers discriminate against applicants who are old, non-European, Muslim, Jewish, obese, have several children, or have a history of sickness absence. Moreover, increasing the firms’ cost of uncertainty in hiring – through more firm co-payment in the sickness benefit system – may reduce hiring, but does not affect the degree of discrimination. Also, there are only small differences in the degree of discrimination between different types of recruiters and firms. Overall, our results suggest that the discrimination, at least partially, should reflect statistical discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Stated choice experiment; Discrimination; Gender; Age; Ethnicity; Obesity; Sickness absence |
| JEL: | J71 |
| Date: | 2012–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uulswp:2012_016&r=dem |
| By: | Eriksson, Stefan (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Johansson, Per (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Langenskiöld, Sophie (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | We study the recruitment behavior of Swedish employers using data from a stated choice experiment. In the experiment, the employers are first asked to describe an employee who recently and voluntarily left the firm, and then to choose between two hypothetical applicants to invite to a job interview or to hire as a replacement for their previous employee. The two applicants differ with respect to characteristics such as gender, age, education, experience, ethnicity, religious beliefs, family situation, weight, and health. Our results show that employers discriminate against applicants who are old, non-European, Muslim, Jewish, obese, have several children, or have a history of sickness absence. Moreover, increasing the firms’ cost of uncertainty in hiring – through more firm co-payment in the sickness benefit system – may reduce hiring, but does not affect the degree of discrimination. Also, there are only small differences in the degree of discrimination between different types of recruiters and firms. Overall, our results suggest that the discrimination, at least partially, should reflect statistical discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Stated choice experiment; Discrimination; Gender; Age; Ethnicity; Obesity; Sickness absence |
| JEL: | J71 |
| Date: | 2012–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2012_013&r=dem |
| By: | Philip Ulrich Sauré; Hosny Zoabi |
| Abstract: | Cross-country variation in average retirement age is usually attributed to institutional differences that affect individuals' incentives to retire. We suggest a different approach. Since workers in different occupations naturally retire at different ages, the composition of occupations within an economy matters for its average retirement age. Using U.S. data we infer the average retirement age by occupation, which we then use to predict the retirement age of 38 countries according to the occupational composition of these countries. Our findings suggest that the differences in occupational composition explain up to 39.2% of the observed cross-country variation in retirement age. |
| Keywords: | Retirement Age, Occupational Distribution, Cross-Country Analysis |
| JEL: | J14 J24 J26 J82 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2012-06&r=dem |
| By: | Chen, Yu (University of Glasgow); Gibb, Kenneth D. (University of Glasgow); Leishman, Chris (Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh); Wright, Robert E. (University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing – or more generally changes in age structure – is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland. |
| Keywords: | population ageing, house prices, Scotland |
| JEL: | J1 R2 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6668&r=dem |
| By: | Nina Drange, Tarjei Havnes and (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Theory and evidence points towards particularly positive effects of high-quality child care for disadvantaged children. At the same time, disadvantaged families often sort out of existing programs. To counter differences in learning outcomes between children from different socioeconomic backgrounds, European governments are pushing for universal child care. However, empirical evidence on the effects of universal programs is scarce. We provide evidence on the long-run effect on schooling of mandating kindergarten at age 5--6. Our identifying variation comes from a reform that lowered school starting-age from 7 to 6 in Norway in 1997. Our precise DD estimates reveal hardly any effect, both overall, across subsamples, and over the grading distribution. A battery of specification checks supports our empirical strategy. |
| Keywords: | kindergarten; early childhood intervention; distributional effects; difference-in-differences; child care; child development |
| JEL: | J13 H40 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:695&r=dem |