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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | John C. Whitehead; Pamela Wicker |
| Abstract: | This study examines the contribution of one event quality attribute to participants’ intention to revisit, assigns a monetary value to this attribute, and estimates the magnitude of hypothetical bias in revisit intention and monetary values. The event is the Blue Ridge Brutal amateur bike ride in North Carolina, USA. Participants received a post-event survey with different hypothetical scenarios after the 2021 and 2022 ride, including riding on the scenic Blue Ridge Parkway or not. Monetary values were obtained by converting willingness-to-travel into willingness-to-pay based on travel cost. The regression results show that including the Blue Ridge Parkway significantly increases intention to revisit. Respondents overstated their intention to revisit by 14% (2021) and 38% (2022). Willingness-to-pay for the parkway was $96 (2021) and $147 (2022) in the stated preference setting. Although the magnitude in hypothetical bias is significant, it can be mitigated by combining revealed and stated preference data. Key Words: Contingent behavior method; Cycling; Stated preferences; Willingness-to-pay; Willingness-to-travel |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:24-14&r=dcm |
| By: | Christopher P. Chambers; Christopher Turansick |
| Abstract: | We study identification and linear independence in random utility models. We characterize the dimension of the random utility model as the cyclomatic complexity of a specific graphical representation of stochastic choice data. We show that, as the number of alternatives grows, any linearly independent set of preferences is a vanishingly small subset of the set of all preferences. We introduce a new condition on sets of preferences which is sufficient for linear independence. We demonstrate by example that the condition is not necessary, but is strictly weaker than other existing sufficient conditions. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.13773&r=dcm |
| By: | Nicolás Ajzenman (McGill University/IZA); Lenin Balza (Inter-American Development Bank); Hernán D. Bejarano (CIDE/Economic Science Institute/Chapman University); Camilo de los Rios (Duke University); Nicolás Gómez-Parra (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Using an online multi-country video-vignette survey experiment, we measure bias against extractive industries and foreign firms in individuals’ perceptions and preferencesrelated to industrial projects with potential economic benefits and environmental costs. Individuals face a hypothetical industrial investment project with arandomly assigned implementing firm, which varies in one or two dimensions: nationality (foreign or national), and industrial sector (extractive or generic). We elicit several incentivized and non-incentivized measures of acceptance of hypothetical investments. We find a precisely estimated null effect on willingness to pay to blockthe projects across experimental treatments: respondents express similar reactions to the same information independently of the firms’ origin or industrial sector. |
| Keywords: | Experimental Economics, Extractive Industries, Perceptions, Willingness–to-pay, Valuations |
| JEL: | C90 D70 D90 L71 Q30 Q51 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:319&r=dcm |
| By: | José Mª Durán-Cabré (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Alejandro Esteller-Moré (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Luca Salvadori (UAB & BSE & IEB & TARC (University of Exeter)) |
| Abstract: | Decentralized fiscal decision-making should serve to enhance welfare by promoting allocative efficiency gains and fostering greater political accountability. Within such an institutional framework, individuals are assumed to be willing to pay, at least, no less taxes than those they pay in a centralized system. We test this hypothesis by means of a survey experiment, leveraging the process of decentralization that has unfolded in Spain over the last 25 years. Our results suggest that individuals have very limited awareness of the tier of government to which they pay their taxes, frequently assuming the system to be centralized. This holds true even in regions where tax decentralization is maximum, as is the case of Spain’s foral communities. On ‘discovering decentralization’ (i.e., being informed that a tax is more decentralized than initially perceived), an individual’s marginal willingness to pay taxes undergoes only a minimal change, with the exception of that of personal income tax. These findings raise questions about the purported benefits of tax decentralization. |
| Keywords: | Tax Decentralization; Fiscal Knowledge; Survey Data |
| JEL: | H11 H71 H77 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2024-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Adam Brandenburger; Paolo Ghirardato; Daniele Pennesi; Lorenzo Stanca |
| Abstract: | In the world of subjective probability, there is no a priori reason why probabilities — interpreted as a willingness-to-bet—should necessarily lie in the interval [0, 1]. We weaken the Monotonicity axiom in classical subjective expected utility (Anscombe and Aumann, 1963) to obtain a representation of preferences in terms of an affine utility function and a signed (subjective) probability measure on states. We decompose this probability measure into a non-negative probability measure (“probability†) and an additive set function on states which sums to zero (“valence†). States with positive (resp. negative) valence are attractive (resp. aversive) for the decision maker. We show how our decision theory can resolve several paradoxes in decision theory, including “hedging aversion†(Morewedge et al., 2018), the conjunction effect (Tversky and Kahneman, 1982, 1983), the co-existence of insurance and betting (Friedman and Savage, 1948), and the choice of dominated strategies in strategyproof mechanisms (Hassidim et al., 2016). We extend our theory to allow for a non-additive willingness-to-bet, which also relaxes our earlier constraints on how valence can behave. |
| Keywords: | Signed probabilities, non-monotonicity, indifference substitution, valence, attractive and aversive states |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:717&r=dcm |
| By: | Marlène Guillon (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier); Phu Nguyen-Van (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Bruno Ventelou (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Willinger (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | We study the behavioral determinants of COVID-19 vaccination uptake. The vaccine-pass policy, implemented in several countries in 2021, conditioned the access to leisure and consumption places to being vaccinated against COVID-19 and created an unprecedented situation where individuals' access to consumption goods and vaccine status were interrelated. We rely on a quasi-hyperbolic discounting model to study the plausible relationships between time preference and the decision to vaccinate in such context. We test the predictions of our model using data collected from a representative sample of the French population (N = 1034) in August and September 2021. Respondents were asked about their COVID-19 vaccination status (zero, one, or two doses), as well as their economic and social preferences. Preference elicitations were undertaken online through incentivized tasks, with parallel collection of self-stated preferences. Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination were investigated using a logistic model. Both elicited and stated impatience were found to be positively associated with COVID-19 vaccination decisions. These results suggest that impatience is a key motivational lever for vaccine uptake in a context where the vaccination decision is multidimensional and impacts the consumption potential. Results also serve to highlight the potential effectiveness of public communications campaigns based on time preferences to increase vaccination coverage. |
| Keywords: | Time preferences, Time inconsistency, Health behavior, COVID-19 Vaccination |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04516843&r=dcm |
| By: | Klitzka, Michael; He, Jianan; Schiereck, Dirk |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes mergers and acquisitions (M&A) payment methods in large transactions of public U.S. acquirers between 2009 and 2016. While we find consistent with previous evidence that asymmetric information between acquirers and targets significantly influences the choice of M&A payment methods, we show that contrary to prevailing findings in the literature, acquirers cannot exploit their overvaluation through stock-financed M&A at targets’ disadvantage. In addition, when facing larger uncertainty in the counterparty’s valuation, a higher ratio of cash is applied in M&A payment. Our results document that both acquirers and targets are rational in choosing M&A payment methods. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:144309&r=dcm |
| By: | Ologunebi, John; Taiwo, Ebenezer |
| Abstract: | E-commerce personalization has emerged as a critical capability for online retailers to drive engagement and conversions by delivering relevant content and experiences tailored to each customer's preferences. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of how a leading UK e-commerce platform implemented advanced personalization tactics across its digital channels and quantifies the resulting business impact. Through in-depth examination of a multi-year personalization initiative, the research evaluates the real-world performance of various machine learning powered techniques including collaborative filtering, predictive segmentation, dynamic ad optimization, and multichannel targeting strategies. A mixed methodology combines analyzing performance data from A/B tests and control groups with insights from user surveys and qualitative feedback. Key findings reveal significant uplifts from personalization across metrics like click-through rates, conversion rates, revenue per visitor and customer lifetime value compared to pre-personalization benchmarks. Automated recommendation engines and targeted ad content resonated strongly with UK consumer preferences. However, the study also highlights nuances like mitigating choice overload, maintaining transparency, and avoiding excessive personalization that could negatively impact outcomes. The "personalization paradox" emerged as a recurring challenge in needing to balance relevance with privacy and diversity of content discovery. Overall insights synthesize drivers of personalization success, quantify substantial ROI, and outline best practices tailored to UK audience contexts. The research provides a comprehensive playbook for how e-commerce brands can leverage first-party data, predictive analytics, and multi-pronged personalization tactics to create more engaging, profitable customer experiences. |
| Keywords: | E-commerce platform, Personalized advertising, Ad content, User preferences, Conversion rates, User engagement, User behavior, User satisfaction, Privacy considerations, Data security, Ethical implications, GDPR compliance, User perceptions, Customer loyalty, Product recommendations, Decision-making, Marketing strategies |
| JEL: | M21 M30 M31 M37 M38 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120595&r=dcm |