| Abstract: |
Low-carbon vehicles due to their relatively lower fuel intensity directly
affect CO2 emissions and are thus technologic solutions that may mitigate
climate change. Electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles can be a
component of a smart grid and thus could help to accommodate more electricity
from renewable energy in the grid. Overall effect on GHG and local air
pollutants of course will depend on fuel mix used to generate electricity.
Alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) are usually more expensive than conventional
cars. Besides the purchase costs, other characteristics of vehicles are also
important for a car driver. The purpose of this study is to contribute to the
literature that have examined individual preferences for various
characteristics of passenger vehicles, including passenger vehicles with very
small market share or which recently do not appear at the market. With the
onset of alternative fuel vehicles on the market, large amount of studies
focusing on consumer preferences of AFVs have been already conducted
worldwide. Consumers’ demand for vehicle described with several specific
characteristics can be modelled using existing data on market penetration or
consumption decisions, i.e. through analysis of revealed preferences. However,
if the supply of certain durable goods is constraint or almost zero as is the
case for new device or not yet existing technology, potential demand can be
examined using stated preferences technique. In our case, the main aim of this
survey is to review individual traveller’s preferences for passenger vehicle,
specifically for a vehicle that is recently characterized by negligible market
penetration. In other words, the stated preferences, as elicited via a stated
preference surveys, for the demand for cars with alternative drive
technologies are examined. There are several stated preference studies on
consumers’ preferences for the uptake of alternative fuel vehicles. However,
our study is the first of this kind that has ever been conducted in a
post-transition CEE country, in Poland. We surveyed 2,600 individuals in order
to elicit preferences for the passenger AFV technologies. We specifically
examine individual preferences for three types of alternative technologies
(hybrid vehicle - HV, plug-in electric vehicle - PHEV, and electric vehicle -
EV) and a conventional car that vary in technology characteristics (driving
range, refuelling/recharging time), policy incentives (free parking, public
transportation, and availability of fast mode infrastructure) and costs
(purchase price, operational and fuel cost), following partly a design by Hoen
and Koetse (2012). Our sampling allows us to analyse the preferences for
segment of new car buyers as well as buyers of second-hand cars that dominates
passenger vehicle market in Poland. Individual preferences are elicited by
using the labelled discrete choice experiments (Hensher, Rose, Greene, 2005;
Carson and Louviere, 2011). The choice cards include always four
technology-specific alternatives and we ask to choose the best option eight
times. The choice sets are based on efficient design with the priors estimated
from the pilot study (N=400). Our econometric model is based on a random
utility framework. We assume that respondents chose a vehicle alternative if
their willingness to pay for such vehicle is greater than the cost of this
alternative. The corresponding indirect utility function is additive in
vehicle’s characteristics and costs. We assume that the random component is an
independent and identically distributed type I extreme value error term with a
scale parameter equal to 1. It implies that the statistical model of the
responses is a conditional logit that is linear in the parameters, and the
probability is the contribution to the likelihood of the conditional logit
model. In order to analyse preference heterogeneity, we allow controlling for
the effect of socio-demographics or other respondent-specific indicators, and
also estimate random parameter (mixed) logit.We reveal that the Polish
consumers have the lowest preference for hybrid cars, followed then by PHEVs
and EVs. In general, we found similar preferences among Polish respondents as
found elsewhere in the literature. Driving range and recharging time are quite
important attributes of a car which Polish consumers intend to buy. On
average, Polish drivers are willing to pay about 3,000 zł for each 100 kms of
driving range, and the drivers who intend to buy a second-hand car value the
driving range less (about 2,000 zł) than respondents who intend to buy a new
car (5,000 zł). As expected, the coefficient on recharging time is negative
and significant; on average, Polish drivers are willing to pay slightly less
than 1,000 zł for each hour saved for recharging. Again, the new car buyers
are willing to pay more than the second-hand car buyers. Their willingness to
pay (WTP) for availability of fast mode recharging infrastructure is almost
one order of magnitude larger than their WTP for reducing the recharging time
by one hour. Providing other benefits, such as free parking and public
transport, increases the probability to choose the AFVs. References: Carson,
R. T., Louviere, J. J. (2011). A Common Nomenclature for Stated Preference
Elicitation Approaches. Environmental and Resource Economics, 49(4), 539–559.
doi:10.1007/s10640-010-9450-x Hensher, D., Rose, J.M., Greene, W.H. (2005).
Applied Choice Analysis. Cambridge University Press. Hoen, A., Koetse, M.J.
(2014). A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private
car owners in the Netherlands. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and
Practice, 61, pp. 199-215. |