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on All new papers |
| By: | Daniele Pacifico |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of unobserved preference heterogeneity in empirical applications of discrete choice models of labour supply. Typically, unobserved heterogeneity is estimated either with continuous or discrete mixture models. However, in order to avoid estimation difficulties, most of the empirical analysis assumes a relatively constrained mixture, standard examples being models where only few coefficients are allowed to vary with independent normal distributions or with discrete distributions with few mass points. We compare labour supply elasticities obtained with these typical specifications of unobserved heterogeneity with those from a more general model that we are able to estimate through an EM algorithm for the nonparametric estimation of mixed models. Results show that labour supply elasticities change significantly with respect to a basic model without unobserved heterogeneity only when the joint distribution of the varying tastes is left completely unspecified. |
| Keywords: | labour supply, unobserved heterogeneity, mixed logit models, EM algorithm |
| JEL: | J22 H31 H24 C25 C14 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:itt:wpaper:2014-6&r=dcm |
| By: | R. Carter Hill; Tong Zeng |
| Abstract: | We explore the properties of a Stein-like shrinkage estimator that combines the fully correlated and uncorrelated Random Parameters Logit model(RPLM). Monte Carlo experiments show that shrinkage and pretest estimators can improve upon the fully correlated RPLM estimator. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2014-11&r=dcm |
| By: | Peter G. Moffatt (University of East Anglia); Stefania Sitzia (University of East Anglia); Daniel John Zizzo (University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | We analyze lottery-choice data in a way that separately estimates the effects of risk aversion and complexity aversion, and allows both both of these to vary between individuals, and also to change with experience. The data is from an experiment in which 80 subjects engage in a sequence of 54 choices between pairs of lotteries. The lotteries always have the same expected value, but they differ in terms of variance and the level of complexity. Complexity is represented by the number of different outcomes in the lottery, and is either 1 (sure win), 3 (simple), 6 (complex) or 27 (very complex). A finite mixture random effects model is estimated which assumes that a proportion of the population are complexity neutral, and we find that around 32% of the population are complexity neutral. In those subjects who do react to complexity, there is a bias towards complexity aversion at the start of the experiment, but complexity aversion reduces with experience, to the extent that the average subject is complexity neutral by the end of the experiment. Around 23% of subjects appear complexity loving. Some of these findings are consistent with switching patterns seen in the choice data. Complexity aversion is found to increase with age, and is found to be higher for non-UK students than for UK students. |
| Keywords: | complexity aversion, complexity preferences, risk preferences, mixture models, learning |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D81 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:wcbess:14-06&r=dcm |
| By: | Shuoxun Zhang (Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China); Tarun Sabarwal (Department of Economics, University of Kansas); Li Gan (Department of Economics, Texas A&M University, and NBER) |
| Abstract: | A partial test for strategic behavior in bankruptcy filing may be formulated by testing whether consumers manipulate their debt and filing decision jointly, or not: that is, testing for endogeneity of financial benefit and the bankruptcy filing decision. Using joint maximum likelihood estimation of an extended discrete choice model, test results are consistent with non-strategic filing: financial benefit is exogenous to the filing decision. This result is confirmed in two different datasets (PSID and SCF). This result is consistent with an ex ante low net gain from a bankruptcy filing; a type of “rational inattention” to rare events such as bankruptcy. |
| Keywords: | Consumer bankruptcy, personal bankruptcy, adverse events, strategic filing |
| JEL: | D12 D14 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:201402&r=dcm |
| By: | Karim ben Khediri; Lanouar Charfeddine; Slah ben Youssef |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the empirical literature on Islamic finance by investigating the feature of Islamic and conventional banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period 2003-2010. We use parametric and non-parametric classification models (Linear discriminant analysis, Logistic regression, Tree of classification and Neural network) to examine whether financial ratios can be used to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks. Univariate results show that Islamic banks are, on average, more profitable, more liquid, better capitalized, and have lower credit risk than conventional banks. We also find that Islamic banks are, on average, less involved in off-balance sheet activities and have more operating leverage than their conventional peers. Results from classification models show that the two types of banks may be differentiated in terms of credit and insolvency risk, operating leverage and off-balance sheet activities, but not in terms of profitability and liquidity. More interestingly, we find that the recent global financial crisis has a negative impact on the profitability for both Islamic and conventional banks, but time shifted. Finally, results show that Logit regression obtained slightly higher classification accuracies than other models. |
| Keywords: | Islamic finance; GCC banking; classification techniques; linear discriminant analysis; logit; tree of classification; neural network. |
| JEL: | C44 C45 C25 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-505&r=dcm |
| By: | Arslan Tariq Rana (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans); Philippe Saucier (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans) |
| Abstract: | En s'appuyant sur la base de données de la Banque Mondiale " Global Preferential Trade Agreements Data Base (GPTAD) " qui recense plus de 268 accords de libre échange, la communication propose une analyse des clauses environnementales pouvant figurer dans ces accords, en particulier dans les accords impliquant pays développés et pays émergents. Une première présentation qualitative permet de dégager les traits essentiels des phénomènes observés. Une analyse économétrique, fondée sur la méthode logit s'efforce ensuite d'identifier les facteurs déterminants de l'introduction des clauses environnementales, sous leurs différentes formes, dans les accords de libre-échange, régionaux ou non, multilatéraux ou bilatéraux, et tente de dégager les enjeux environnementaux dans les négociations Nord-Sud. |
| Keywords: | Environmental clauses in free trade agreements between developed and emerging countries - Analysis of determinants |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01058357&r=dcm |
| By: | Mircea Badescu (European Commission, Joint Reasearch Centre - JRC (ITALY) - European Commission, Joint Reasearch Centre - JRC (ITALY), JRC-IPSC - JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE - Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen - European Commission, Joint Reasearch Centre - JRC (ITALY)); Christelle Garrouste (European Commission, Joint Reasearch Centre - JRC (ITALY) - European Commission, Joint Reasearch Centre - JRC (ITALY), LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans); Massimo Loi (IRVAPP - Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies - Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies) |
| Abstract: | The importance of a highly skilled workforce has become increasingly relevant in the context of the European Union's new strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth -- 'Europe 2020'. Policies encouraging wide participation in continuing training are therefore an important component of lifelong learning strategies. This paper aims to investigate the determinants of adult education for the unemployed compared to workers using the two main European surveys on training, namely the Adult Education Survey (AES) and the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Our work demonstrates a significant difference in the capability of these two surveys to capture the participation in adult education programmes in Europe. After having estimated a probit model on both datasets, we find that, overall, unemployed adults in Europe tend to participate less in training than workers, especially in non-formal training. However, this result is statistically significant only for the estimates from the AES. Furthermore, both surveys highlight the key role played by country-specific institutional settings in determining the participation to adult training. Overall, this work shows that the AES is the more reliable data source for policy making in the field of adult participation to education and training |
| Keywords: | Distribution ; adult ; training among ; European unemployed ; recent survey |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01057667&r=dcm |
| By: | Bertrand-Cloodt D.A.M.; Cörvers F; Heijke J.A.M. (GSBE) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether a creaming off of highly able students from Dutch universities is taking place. Therefore, we examine the relation between ability and the destination of recent graduates of Dutch universities. Students can choose to continue their academic career by investing in a PhD degree instead of working, taking into account that both options can be realized in the Netherlands as well as abroad. We also investigate whether these choices are affected by the climate in certain fields of study and universities. Using a data set of workers and PhD students who recently graduated from Dutch universities two probit equations are estimated simultaneously, one for the migration decision and one for the choice between working and pursuing a PhD. Our findings indicate that highly able graduates are significantly more likely than average graduates to go abroad. They invest more often in a PhD programme, which is positively correlated with their likelihood to go abroad. In addition, the climate promoting going abroad and starting PhD study is shown to have positive effects on the odds of going abroad and participating in a PhD programme. This particularly holds for the highly able. |
| Keywords: | International Migration; Higher Education and Research Institutions; |
| JEL: | I23 F22 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2014024&r=dcm |
| By: | Christelle Garrouste (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans); Margarida Rodrigues (JRC-IPSC - JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE - Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen - European Commission, Joint Reasearch Centre - JRC (ITALY)) |
| Abstract: | Purpose - This paper aims at measuring the potential role of the field of education and the fact of having worked during studies on the employability of the higher educated (ISCED 5-6) cohort targeted by the ET2020 graduates' employability benchmark. Design/methodology/approach - Using the same data source as the benchmark (i.e., the annual LFS microdata from 2004 to 2010), and exploring the additional transition questions collected in the LFS 2009 ad-hoc module, we define and test four hypotheses using a probit approach on each EU country. Findings - The degree plays a significant role in the employability of young graduates across countries and time. In terms of probability of employment, the leading field is Health and welfare. In terms of type of contracts, the leading fields are Social sciences and Engineering. Moreover, what labour markets seem to value the most is the capacity of higher educated students to combine high level studies and work, i.e. a high workload capacity and intellectual flexibility. Practical implications - Reaching the new European target of a minimum of 82% of employment of young graduates will require countries to invest wisely in the most "employable" fields of education. This analysis will help policy makers in their future orientations towards that target. Originality/value - The originality of this work lies in its exploration of the exact same extraction of microdata used for the computation of the ET2020 Benchmark indictor and in its immediate political implications for the monitoring of this benchmark. |
| Keywords: | Employability benchmark ; Higher education ; Degree fields ; Work experience ; Contracts |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01056703&r=dcm |
| By: | Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Pamminger, Christoph (University of Linz); Weber, Andrea (University of Mannheim); Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf (University of Linz) |
| Abstract: | Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track. |
| Keywords: | fertility, timing of birth, family gap, Transition Data, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Multinomial Logit, Panel Data |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8396&r=dcm |