| Abstract: |
I discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total
number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based
on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the ‘Truth and
Reconciliation Commission’ (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by
three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State
and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by
one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible . TRC consultants
Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a ‘residual
estimation,’ consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show
theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of
deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of
deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number
is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000
deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by ‘other
perpetrators,’ calculated by Ball et al. |