|
on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Christopher Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin); Yingying Dong (University of California Irvine); Arthur Lewbel (Boston College); Tao Yang (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Dong and Lewbel have developed the theory of simple estimators for binary choice models with endogenous or mismeasured regressors, depending on a `special regressor' as defined by Lewbel (J. Econometrics, 2000). `Control function' methods such as Stata's ivprobit are generally only valid when endogenous regressors are consistent. The estimators proposed here can be used with limited, censored, continuous or discrete endogenous regressors, and have significant advantages over alternatives such as maximum likelihood and the linear probability model. These estimators are numerically straightforward to implement. We present and demonstrate an improved version of a Stata routine that provides both estimation and post-estimation features. |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:scon12:9&r=dcm |
| By: | Takashi Kamihigashi (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies wealth distribution dynamics in a small open economy with a continuum of consumers indexed by initial wealth. Each of them solves a discrete-choice problem whose optimal policy function exhibits ergodic chaos. We show that for any initial distribu- tion of wealth given by a density, the wealth distribution converges to a unique invariant distribution, and aggregate wealth converges to the corresponding value. Thus ergodic chaos leads to aggregate stability rather than instability. These results are illustrated with various nu- merical examples. |
| Keywords: | Aggregation, Ergodic chaos, Stability, Discrete choice, Wealth distribution, Frobenius-Perron operator |
| JEL: | C43 C60 D31 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2012-20&r=dcm |
| By: | Charlene Rohr; Urs Trinkner; Alison Lawrence; Chong Woo Kim; Dimitris Potoglou; Rob Sheldon |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on the implementation of stated preference discrete choice experiments (SPDCEs) to measure business and residential consumers’ preferences for specific aspects of postal services in three European member states: Italy, Poland and Sweden. |
| Keywords: | Consumer preferences, Postal services |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chc:wpaper:0034&r=dcm |
| By: | Michael Iacono; David Levinson; Ahmed El-Geneidy; Rania Wasfi (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | The set of models available to predict land use change in urban regions has become increasingly complex in recent years. Despite their complexity, the predictive power of these models remains relatively weak. This paper presents an example of an alternative modeling framework based on the concept of a Markov chain. The model assumes that land use at any given time, which is viewed as a discrete state, can be considered a function of only its previous state. The probability of transition between each pair of states is recorded as an element of a transition probability matrix. Assuming that this matrix is stationary over time, it can be used to predict future land use distributions from current data. To illustrate this process, a Markov chain model is estimated for the Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN, USA (Twin Cities) metropolitan region. Using a unique set of historical land use data covering several years between 1958 and 2005, the model is tested using historical data to predict recent conditions, and is then used to forecast the future distribution of land use decades into the future. We also use the cell-level data set to estimate the fraction of regional land use devoted to transportation facilities, including major highways, airports, and railways. The paper concludes with some comments on the strengths and weaknesses of Markov chains as a land use modeling framework, and suggests some possible extensions of the model. |
| Keywords: | mode choice, mode shares, mixed logit, stated preference. |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R14 R41 R52 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:markovlu&r=dcm |
| By: | Carlos Carrion; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | The dominant method for measuring values of travel time savings (VOT), and values of travel time reliability (VOR) is discrete choice modeling. Generally, the data sources for these models are: stated choice experiments, and revealed preference observations. There are few studies using revealed preference data. These studies have only used travel times measured by devices such as loop detectors, and thus the perception error of travelers has been largely ignored. In this study, the influence of commuters’ perception error is investigated on data collected of commuters recruited from previous research. The subjects’ self-reported travel times from surveys, and the subjects’ travel times measured by GPS devices were collected. The results indicate that the subjects reliability ratio is greater than 1 in the models with self-reported travel times. In contrast, subjects reliability ratio is smaller than 1 in the models with travel times as measured by GPS devices. |
| Keywords: | route choice, GPS data, choice dynamics, travel time reliability, network reliability, value of reliability, value of time. |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:reliabilityratioperception&r=dcm |
| By: | Andrew Owen; Paul Anderson; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | The factors influencing commute mode choice are a subject of ongoing research and policy. Existing literature explores a wide range of factors which may influence mode choice; many of these focus on demographic factors as well as user preferences and perception, thereby highlighting the unique characteristics of each mode. This analysis hypothesizes that mode share, the aggregate expression of individuals' mode choices, is determined in large part by more fundamental properties of transportation systems. Accessibility, which measures the ease of reaching destinations, is used as a tool for comparing modes which focuses on their properties as abstract transportation systems. It explores the potential to predict the relative commute shares of non-auto and auto modes from the relative accessibility provided by each. Using public data sources and methods selected for their simplicity and ease of interpretation, a model is estimated which accounts for 41% of the variation in commute mode share at the block group level in the Minneapolis--Saint Paul, MN metropolitan area. |
| Keywords: | accessibility, mode choice, travel behavior |
| JEL: | R41 R42 H43 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:relativeaccessibilityandthechoiceofmodes&r=dcm |
| By: | Carlos Carrion; Nebiyou Tilahun; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Monte Carlo experiments are used to study the unbiasedness of several common random utility models for a proposed adaptive stated preference survey. This survey is used to study the influence of the knowledge of existing mode shares on travelers mode choice. Furthermore, the survey is applied to a sample of subjects selected from the University of Minnesota. The results indicate that the presence of mode shares in the mode choice model does influence the decision of travelers. The estimates are found to be biased by the Monte Carlo experiments. |
| Keywords: | mode choice, mode shares, mixed logit, stated preference. |
| JEL: | R41 C33 C35 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:mcasp&r=dcm |
| By: | Carlos Carrion; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Carrion and Levinson (2012) studied the bridge choice behavior of commuters before and after a new bridge opened to the public. This bridge replaced the previously collapsed I-35W bridge in the metro area of Minneapolis-St. Paul. The original I-35W bridge collapsed on August 1st 2007, and the replacement bridge opened to the public on September 18th 2008. This study extends Carrion and Levinson (2012) by considering explicitly the day-to-day behavior of travelers, and by also considering the previously excluded subjects that are transitioning between bridge alternatives not including the I-35W bridge. The primary results indicate that the subjects react to day-to-day travel times on a specific route according to thresholds. These thresholds help discriminate whether a travel time is within an acceptable margin or not, and travelers may decide to abandon the chosen route depending on the frequency of travel times within acceptable margins. The secondary results indicate that subjects previous experience, and perception of the alternatives also influence their decision to abandon the chosen route. |
| Keywords: | route choice, GPS data, choice dynamics, equilibration. |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:routedynamics&r=dcm |
| By: | Xuan Di; Henry Liu; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | In undergraduate transportation engineering courses, traffic assignment is a difficult concept for both instructors to teach and for students to learn, because it involves many mathematical derivations and computations. We have designed a multiplayer game to engage students in the process of learning route choice, so that students can visualize how the traffic gradually reach user equilibrium (UE). For one scenario, we employ a Braess' Paradox, and explore the phenomenon during the game-play. We have done the case-control and before-after comparisons. The statistical results show that, students who played the game improve their understanding of the Braess' Paradox more than those who did not play. Among game players, younger students benefit more in their learning; while those who are not comfortable with exploring a phenomenon on their own think this game not as effective as those who prefer hands-on learning experiences. |
| Keywords: | route choice, traffic assignment, user equilibrium, equilibration, education, Braess' Paradox |
| JEL: | A22 R41 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:marc-game&r=dcm |
| By: | Marija Bockarjova (VU University Amsterdam); Piet Rietveld (VU University Amsterdam); Erik T. Verhoef (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use data from an SP study on flood safety in the Netherlands, and elicit individual preferences for reduction of risk to life and limb. We perform context analysis to test the robustness of fatality risk valuation throughout choice experiments. The main interest of this paper is VOSL sensitivity to the valuation of correlated risks (scope effect). Besides, we explore the role of cognition on the stability of valuation across choice experiments using age and education. We pool data from multiple choice experiments and apply nested and mixed logit models in our analysis. We confirm statistically significant sensitivity to scope, comparing VOSL estimates for the test group in a choice experiment where correlated risks were present (risks of fatality, injury and evacuation) to an experiment where only fatality risk is valued. We find that the origin of differences in VOSL valuations across the choice experiments lies in differences in age and educational attainment, and may therefore be related to cognitive abilities of respondents. In particular, we conclude that higher VOSL sensitivity to scope is most prominently present among respondents of senior age (65 and older) and respondents without college education. This finding has important implications for discrete choice modeling and the use of obtained values in cost-benefit analyses. |
| Keywords: | stated preferences; value of statistical life; value of statistical injury; value of statistical evacuation; flood risk |
| JEL: | C01 C33 C83 C90 D12 D61 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2012–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20120046&r=dcm |
| By: | Marija Bockarjova (VU University Amsterdam); Piet Rietveld (VU University Amsterdam); Erik T. Verhoef (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper enriches existing valuation literature in a number of ways by presenting context-specific estimates of immaterial damage. First, it offers an estimation of value of statistical life (VOSL) in the context of a natural hazard (flooding). Next, as one of the contributions, alongside with less biased estimate of VOSL (euro 6.8 mln) it also provides estimates of the value of statistical injury (VOSI, euro 92,000), and of the value of statistical evacuation (VOSE, euro 2,400). Our estimated indicators are plausible and stay robust throughout various estimations. For flood protection policy in the Netherlands, a higher value of VOSL forthcoming from this research would imply 'underprotection' under current conditions. Another important finding concerns the composition of the total value of immaterial damages, where value of fatalities or value of evacuation may dominate depending on the prevailing floor risk circumstances. This implies that, first, VOSL is not an adequate proxy for immaterial damages since it understates prospective benefits of designated protective measures. Second, spatially differentiated composition of immaterial damages should be explicitly considered to guide policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | cost-benefit analysis; natural hazard; flood risk; stated preferences; choice experiment |
| JEL: | C01 C33 C83 C90 D12 D61 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2012–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20120047&r=dcm |
| By: | Anja Dettmann (Working Group on Economic Geography and Location Research, Philipps University Marburg); Sidonia von Proff (Working Group on Economic Geography and Location Research, Philipps University Marburg); Thomas Brenner (Working Group on Economic Geography and Location Research, Philipps University Marburg) |
| Abstract: | In the literature there is a controversy about the relevance of the spatial dimension in innovation collaboration. We examine the link between the spatial composition of group members and group characteristics which are important for performing innovation projects. To this end, we introduce a social-psychological approach to the field of economic geography. The empirical part is a longitudinal study of 49 inter-organisational innovation groups in Germany. We find that the share of regional partners is rather stable after a funded formation stage. Hence, policy measures aiming at inter-regional collaboration have to be employed at an early stage of group development. |
| Keywords: | innovation collaboration, collaboration over distance, network formation, Germany |
| JEL: | L14 R12 O38 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pum:wpaper:2012-03&r=dcm |