|
on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | James Mitchell; Richard J. Smith; Martin R. Weale |
| Abstract: | Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms’ categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators. |
| Keywords: | Survey Data; Indicators; Quantification; Forecasting; Forecast Combination |
| JEL: | C35 C53 C80 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:11/53&r=dcm |
| By: | Marc Henry (Department of Economics, Université de Montréal); Romuald Méango (Department of Economics, Université de Montréal); Maurice Queyranne (Sauder School of Business) |
| Abstract: | We propose a computationally feasible inference method infinite games of complete information. Galichon and Henry (2011) and Beresteanu, Molchanov, and Molinari (2011) show that such models are equivalent to a collection of moment inequalities that increases exponentially with the number of discrete outcomes. We propose an equivalent characterization based on classical combinatorial optimization methods that alleviates this computational burden and allows the construction of confidence regions with an effcient combinatorial bootstrap procedure that runs in linear computing time. The method can also be applied to the empirical analysis of cooperative and noncooperative games, instrumental variable models of discrete choice and revealed preference analysis. We propose an application to the determinants of long term elderly care choices. |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2012cf837&r=dcm |
| By: | Attema, Arthur; Brouwer, Werner |
| Abstract: | The numerous reports on preference reversals in preference elicitations pose a great challenge to empirical economics. Many studies have found that different procedures may generate substantially different preferences. However, little is known about whether one procedure is more susceptible to preference reversals than another. Therefore, taking the preference reversals as a robust behavioral pattern, guidelines are called for to provide directions regarding a preferred preference elicitation task. This paper puts forward a new test of the internal consistency of choice and matching tasks, based on “internal preference reversals”. We replicate the preference reversal phenomenon and find a significant higher consistency within choice tasks than within matching tasks. |
| Keywords: | preference reversal; internal consistency; scale compatibility; loss aversion; choice; matching |
| JEL: | C91 B41 I10 |
| Date: | 2012–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36100&r=dcm |