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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | José M. Labeaga; Mercedes Martos-Partal; Nora Lado |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to validate the double jeopardy loyalty effect in a utility framework using a discrete choice approach instead of the Dirichlet model. We specify brand choice and allow for differences in brand loyalty measures across brands in two different product categories. The discrete choice model formulations include a multinomial and a latent class multinomial logit model. Using ACNielsen household scanner panel data to estimate the models, we find that market share leaders enjoy higher purchasing loyalty than do lower market share brands. The results have relevant implications in terms of marketing mix decisions for brand managers. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2007-21&r=dcm |
| By: | Paolo Figini (University of Bologna); Massimiliano Castellani (University of Bologna); Laura Vici (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | During their holidays, tourists produce direct and indirect effects on local residents, which can either be positive or negative. In this paper we investigate how residents of Rimini, a popular Italian seaside resort hosting more than ten million national and foreign overnight stays every year, internalise such effects. We use a stated preference approach and, in particular, a discrete choice modelling technique; within this framework, we are able to test some conjectures about residents’ welfare, by measuring their willingness to pay for alternative scenarios regarding the use of the territory. Tourist policies and public investments in the destination affect residents’ welfare, and our results might suggest areas of potential synergies and trade-off, leading to important policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Tourism, External Effects, Discrete Choice Modelling |
| JEL: | Q56 L83 C25 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.76&r=dcm |
| By: | Flavio Cunha (University of Chicago); James J. Heckman (University of Chicago, American Bar Foundation, University College Dublin and IZA); Salvador Navarro (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the widely used ordered choice model by introducing stochastic thresholds and interval-specific outcomes. The model can be interpreted as a generalization of the GAFT (MPH) framework for discrete duration data that jointly models durations and outcomes associated with different stopping times. We establish conditions for nonparametric identification. We interpret the ordered choice model as a special case of a general discrete choice model and as a special case of a dynamic discrete choice model. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice, ordered choice, dynamics |
| JEL: | C31 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2940&r=dcm |
| By: | Victor Aguirregabiria; Pedro mira |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews methods for the estimation of dynamic discrete choice structural models and discusses related econometric issues. We consider single agent models, competitive equilibrium models and dynamic games. The methods are illustrated with descriptions of empirical studies which have applied these techniques to problems in different areas of economics. Programming codes for the estimation methods are available in a companion web page. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic structural models; Discrete choice; Estimation methods. |
| JEL: | C14 C25 C61 |
| Date: | 2007–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-297&r=dcm |
| By: | Nadja Silberhorn; Yasemin Boztug; Lutz Hildebrandt |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the nested logit model for choices between a set of mutually exclusive alternatives (e.g. brand choice, strategy decisions, modes of transportation, etc.). Due to the ability of the nested logit model to allow and account for similarities between pairs of alternatives, the model has become very popular for the empirical analysis of choice decisions. However the fact that there are two different specifications of the nested logit model (with different outcomes) has not received adequate attention. The utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) model and the non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) model have different properties, influencing the estimation results in a different manner. This paper introduces distinct specifications of the nested logit model and indicates particularities arising from model estimation. The effects of using various software packages on the estimation results of a nested logit model are shown using simulated data sets for an artificial decision situation. |
| Keywords: | nested logit model, utility maximization nested logit, nonnormalized nested logit, simulation study |
| JEL: | C13 C31 C87 M31 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-046&r=dcm |
| By: | Gelhausen, Marc Christopher |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to present a novel approach of a general airport and access mode choice model. Based on data of the German Air Traveller Survey 2003 with a sample size of about 210.000 passengers interviewed at 21 airports a three-stage nested logit model has been estimated in a first step. 7 different access modes to the airport are modelled, subdivided into four private and three public travel modes. The model includes 7 different market segments: Domestic, European and Intercontinental travel, each segment split up into private and business travel. The European private travel segment is further subdivided into short stay trips and holiday travel. The aim is to develop a generally applicable airport and access mode choice model. Thereby it is possible to analyse future in terms of new airport constellations and new airport access modes. To achieve this, Kohonens Self-Organizing-Maps are used to identify different airport clusters and assign every airport to the appropriate cluster. Based on these airport clusters the aforementioned nested logit model has been estimated. In a second step, neural networks are applied to the problem of airport and access mode choice. On the basis of neural networks a new kind of discrete choice model called "Generalized Neural Logit Model" has been developed. To optimize the network structure genetic algorithms have been applied. Such a model fits into the structure of a General Extreme Value model and satisfies the condition of utility maximization. A second airport and access mode choice model based on the Generalized Neural Logit Model and the airport clusters has been estimated. Although the former approach showed for most market segments a good model fit, the new approach showed a significant increase in model fit especially for those market segments the model fits of which in the nested logit model were less satisfying. |
| Keywords: | Airport and access mode choice model; Concept of alternative groups; Discrete choice model; Generalized Neural Logit-Model; Kohonen’s Self Organizing Maps; Artificial neural networks |
| JEL: | C53 C25 C14 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4236&r=dcm |
| By: | Gelhausen, Marc Christopher; Wilken, Dieter |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to present a novel approach of a general airport and access mode choice model. Based on data of the German Air Traveller Survey 2003 with a sample size of about 210.000 passengers interviewed at 21 airports a three-stage nested logit model has been estimated in a first step. 7 different access modes to the airport are modelled, subdivided into four private and three public travel modes. The model includes 7 different market segments: Domestic, European and Intercontinental travel, each segment split up into private and business travel. The European private travel segment is further subdivided into short stay trips and holiday travel. The aim is to develop a generally applicable airport and access mode choice model. Thereby it is possible to analyse future in terms of new airport constellations and new airport access modes. To achieve this, Kohonens Self-Organizing-Maps are used to identify different airport clusters and assign every airport to the appropriate cluster. Based on these airport clusters the aforementioned nested logit model has been estimated. The model is fully flexible regarding airports and access modes included in the analysis, thereby it is possible to evaluate any scenario, whether it is existing today or not. Furthermore, the model is not restricted in terms of the maximum number of airport/access mode combinations allowed. Interesting model applications comprise new high speed intercity access to existing airports or the impact of new airports like for example Berlin-Brandenburg International. Analysis of airport and access mode choice in border regions is possible, too. |
| Keywords: | Airport and access mode choice; Airport categories; Artificial neural networks; Discrete choice model; Generalized nested logit model; Kohonen's Self-Organizing Maps |
| JEL: | C25 C45 C14 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4311&r=dcm |
| By: | Mbolatiana RAMBONILAZA (ADER CEMAGREF); Patrick POINT (GREThA); Jeanne DACHARY-BERNARD (ADER CEMAGREF) |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of an investigation to evaluate the benefits of landscape policies. Such policies are, within a specific area (here the Monts d’Arrée in Brittany), favouring some landscape attributes. We test out a procedure based on a double device. The first one relies on the choice experiments method and focuses on each attribute. Without prior information about the presence of substitution and complementarity effects between attributes, we work on the basis of scenarios built to ensure the independence of attributes. The important question of the impact of an attribute variation on the aesthetic value of another one, when these attributes are jointly perceived, is tackled by use of the multi-programme method. The two surveys were launched after an interval of one year, sampling among the same population. The WTP results obtained from each method are not statistically different. |
| Keywords: | Valuation; choice modelling; multi-attributes choice set; multi-programme method; choice experiments; landscape; Monts d’Arrée |
| JEL: | Q51 D61 R52 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2007-12&r=dcm |
| By: | Rosalie Viney (CHERE, University of Technology, Sydney); Elizabeth Savage (CHERE, University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the nature of the utility function for health care, defined over the probability of survival, survival duration, health state and cost of treatment. A discrete choice experiment, involving treatment choice for a hypothetical health condition is used to test restrictions on preferences in the QALY model. We find that preferences do not conform to expected utility, and there are significant interactions between health state and survival duration. Individual characteristics are significant, implying substantial differences in valuations of health states across the population. The results suggest the QALY approach distorts valuations of health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Discrete choice experiment, Qalys, preferences, health state valuation |
| JEL: | I19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:her:chewps:2006/10&r=dcm |