|
on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Riganti, Patrizia (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics); Nijkamp, Peter |
| Abstract: | Many mature and popular tourist destinations are attracting large volumes of tourist flows. Especially during peak periods this may lead to congestion phenomena in different areas of tourist cities. This paper presents the results of a tourist survey carried out in the city centre of Amsterdam, during the high tourist season (2006), when congestion phenomena are clearly present. In addition to a descriptive and exploratory statistical analysis based on multi-attribute choice analysis, the paper also presents the findings from a statistical choice experiment based on the concept of willingness-to-accept tourism congestion. Various interesting results are discussed, with a specific focus on the question how these results can feed into the policy debate to manage congestion in mature cultural destinations. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:vuarem:2007-9&r=dcm |
| By: | Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (University of Arizona and Princeton University); Arturo Gonzalez (Public Policy Institute of California and IZA); Todd C. Neumann (University of California, Merced) |
| Abstract: | Most of the literature on the evaluation of training programs focuses on the effect of participation on a particular outcome (e.g. earnings). The "treatment" is generally represented by a binary variable equal to one if participation in the program occurs, and equal to zero if no participation occurs. While the use of a binary treatment indicator is attractive for ease of interpretation and estimation, it treats all exposure the same. The extent of exposure to the treatment, however, is potentially important in determining the outcome; particularly in training programs where a main feature is the varying length of the training spells of participating individuals. In this paper, we illustrate how recently developed methods for the estimation of causal effects from continuous treatments can be used to learn about the consequences of heterogeneous lengths of enrollment in the evaluation of training programs. We apply these methods to data on Job Corps (JC), America’s largest and most comprehensive job training program for disadvantaged youth. The length of exposure is a significant source of heterogeneity in these data: while the average participation spell in JC is 28 weeks, its standard deviation and interdecile range are 27 and 62 weeks, respectively. We estimate average causal effects of different lengths of exposure to JC using the "generalized propensity score" under the assumption that the length of the individual’s JC spell is randomly assigned, conditional on a rich set of covariates. Finally, using this approach, we document important differences across different spell lengths and across three racial and ethnic groups of participants (blacks, whites and Hispanics) that help understand why the benefits these groups receive from JC are so disparate from estimates derived using traditional methods. |
| Keywords: | training programs, continuous treatments, generalized propensity score, dose-response function |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2846&r=dcm |
| By: | Ali T. Akarca (University of Illinois at Chicago); Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University and IZA) |
| Abstract: | 1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election is utilized to study the voter behavior in Turkey. Turkish voters are found to take government’s economic performance into account but not look back beyond one year. A poor performance is found to benefit the extremist opposition parties at the expense of the major incumbent party. The minor incumbent and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by economic conditions. Voters also exhibit a tendency to vote against the parties holding power. The party preferences of Turkish voters depend on their socioeconomic characteristics as well. |
| Keywords: | elections, voter behavior, economic voting, party preference, Turkey |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2881&r=dcm |
| By: | Lei Xu; Kao-Lee Liaw |
| Abstract: | Using a multinomial logit model, this paper explains the initial destination choices of skilled-worker immigrants from four South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka) who landed in Canada in 1992-2001, based on the micro data of Citizenship and Immigration Canada. We found that their choice pattern, which is characterized by extremely strong concentration in Ontario, was strongly affected by the attractions of (1) co-ethnic communities and (2) long-term income opportunities represented by earned income per capita. The temporal pattern of their choices was subject to the lagged effects of the fluctuations in the spatial pattern of employment opportunities in an economically sensible but relatively mild way. The enhancement of Quebec’s attraction by the Canada/Quebec agreement on immigration dissipated within only a few years. |
| Keywords: | Canadian immigrants, South Asia, destination choices |
| JEL: | R23 F22 O15 J11 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:sedapp:193&r=dcm |
| By: | Axel Dreher (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich Switzerland and CESifo, Germany); Bernhard Boockmann (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | We investigate voting behavior on human rights in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Our central question is whether countries with a low human rights record systematically oppose human rights resolutions. An instrumental account of voting would suggest that these countries aim to weaken UN human rights resolutions since they could be future targets of these policies. If reputation aspects and other non-instrumental motives dominate, the influence can go in either direction. We estimate determinants of voting on the basis of 13,000 individual voting decisions from 1980 to 2002. Our results from ordered probit estimation show that a country’s human rights situation is irrelevant to voting behavior if regional dependence of voting is controlled for. This suggests that countries’ voting decisions are not made independently from each other. The results also show that simple rules for aggregating voting choices can lead to misleading results. |
| Keywords: | Voting, Human Rights, United Nations, Instrumental Voting |
| JEL: | D |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:07-163&r=dcm |
| By: | Theocharis N. Grigoriadis; Benno Torgler |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the relative impact of regional energy production on the energy voting choices of State Duma deputies between 1994 and 2003, controlling for other factors such as party affiliation, electoral mandate, committee membership and socio-demographic parameters. We apply Poole’s optimal classification method of roll call votes using an ordered probit model to explain energy market reform in the first decade of Russia’s democratic transition. Our main finding is that the gas production factor is inter temporally important in the formation of the deputies’ legislative choices and shows Gazprom’s strategic position in the post-Soviet Russian economy. The oil production factor is variably significant in the two first Dumas, when the main legislative debates on oil privatization occur. The energy committee membership tends to consistently explain pro-reform voting choices. The pro-and anti-reform poles observed in our Poole-based single dimensional scale are not necessarily connected with liberal and state-oriented policies respectively. |
| Keywords: | energy regulation, market reform, energy resources, roll call votes, legislative politics, State Duma, Russia |
| JEL: | Q40 D72 K23 P27 P37 P31 R11 |
| Date: | 2007–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qut:dpaper:221&r=dcm |