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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Alberto Longo (Queen’s University Belfast and University of Bath); Anil Markandya (University of Bath and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Marta Petrucci (University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the willingness to pay of a sample of residents of Bath, England, for a hypothetical program that promotes the production of renewable energy. Using choice experiments, we assess the preferences of respondents for a policy for the promotion of renewable energy that (i) contributes to the internalization of the external costs caused by fossil fuel technologies; (ii) affects the security of energy supply; (iii) has an impact on the employment in the energy sector; (iv) and leads to an increase in the electricity bill. Responses to the choice questions show that our respondents are in favour of a policy for renewable energy and that they attach a high value to a policy that brings private and public benefits in terms of climate change and energy security benefits. Our results therefore suggest that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for electricity in order to internalize the external costs in terms of energy security, climate change and air pollution caused by the production of electricity. |
| Keywords: | Non Market Valuation, Choice Experiments, Willingness to Pay, Renewable Energy, Energy Security, Greenhouse Gases Emissions |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 Q51 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.132&r=dcm |
| By: | Juan Luis Nicolau (Universidad de Alicante) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to test the effect of the consumer¿s variety-seeking behaviour on the distance the tourist is prepared to travel; that is, his/her willingness to travel further. The empirical application is carried out in Spain in a context with 26 destinations, by applying Mixed Logit Models. The results evidence that the variety-seeking behaviour reduces the dissuasive effect of distance. El objetivo del presente estudio es contrastar el efecto del comportamiento ¿búsqueda de variedad¿ en la distancia que el turista está dispuesto a realizar; es decir, su predisposición a viajar más o menos lejos. La aplicación empírica se desarrolla en España en un contexto de 26 destinos, aplicándose un Modelo Logit Mixto. Los resultados evidencian que la ¿búsqueda de variedad¿ reduce el ¿efecto disuasivo¿ de la distancia. |
| Keywords: | Marketing Turístico, Búsqueda de variedad, Modelo Logit Mixto. Tourism Marketing, Variety-seeking behaviour, Mixed Logit Model. |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2006-17&r=dcm |
| By: | Birol, Ekin; Kontoleon, Andreas; Smale, Melinda |
| Abstract: | " Hungarian home gardens are small-scale farms managed by farm households using traditional management practices and family labor. They generate private benefits for farmers by enhancing diet quality and providing food when costs of transacting in local markets are high. Home gardens also generate public benefits for society by supporting long-term productivity advances in agriculture. In this paper, we estimate the private value to farmers of agrobiodiversity in home gardens. Building on the approach presented in EPTD Discussion Paper 117 (2004), we combine a stated preference approach (a choice experiment model) and a revealed preference approach (a discrete-choice, farm household model). Both models are based on random utility theory. To combine the models, primary data were collected from the same 239 farm households in three regions of Hungary. Combining approaches leads to a more efficient and robust estimation of the private value of agrobiodiversity in home gardens. Findings can be used to identify those farming communities, which would benefit most from agri-environmental schemes that support agrobiodiversity maintenance, at least public cost." Authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Home gardens, Small-scale farmers, Diet quality, Agricultural productivity, Agrobiodiversity, Household surveys, Private value, Choice experiment model, Farm household model, Revealed and stated preference methods, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:eptddp:156&r=dcm |
| By: | Peter van der Zwan (CASBEC, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, and EIM, Zoetermeer); Roy Thurik (CASBEC, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, EIM Zoetermeer, Max Planck Institute of Economics, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Isabel Grilo (DG Enterprise, European Commission, GREMARS, Université de Lille 3, and CORE, Université Cath. de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | We test a new model where the entrepreneurial decision is described as a process of successive engagement levels, i.e., as an entrepreneurial ladder. Five levels are distinguished using nearly 12,000 observations from the 2004 “Flash Eurobarometer survey on Entrepreneurship” covering the 25 European Union member states and the United States. The most surprising of the many results is that perception of lack of financial support is no obstacle for moving to a higher entrepreneurial engagement level whereas perceived administrative complexity is a significant obstacle. We also show that the effect of age on the probability of moving forward in the entrepreneurial process becomes negative after a certain age implying that if entrepreneurial engagements are not taken early enough in life they may well never be taken. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; determinants; nascent entrepreneurship; ordered multinomial logit; Europe |
| JEL: | H10 J23 L26 M13 R12 |
| Date: | 2006–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060103&r=dcm |
| By: | Isabel Grilo; Roy Thurik |
| Abstract: | The process of the entrepreneurial decision is decomposed in seven engagement levels ranging from “never thought about starting a business” to “gave up”, “thinking about it”, “taking steps for starting up”, “having a young business”, “having an older business” and “no longer being an entrepreneur”. By using a multinomial logit model we allow the effect of covariates to differ across the various entrepreneurial engagement levels. Data from two Entrepreneurship Flash Eurobarometer surveys (2002 and 2003) con-taining over 20,000 observations of the 15 old EU member states, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and the US are used. Other than demographic variables, the set of explanatory variables used includes the percep-tion by respondents of administrative complexities, of availability of financial support and of risk tolerance, the respondents’ preference for self-employment and country specific effects. Among our results we find that the perception of lack of financial support has no discriminative effect across the various levels of en-trepreneurial engagement while perception of administrative complexities plays a negative role only for high levels of engagement. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, determinants, nascent entrepreneurship, multinomial logit, barriers to entry, Europe |
| JEL: | H10 J23 L26 M13 R12 |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:egpdis:2007-02&r=dcm |
| By: | Anna Alberini (University of Maryland); Alberto Longo (Queen’s University Belfast); Patrizia Riganti (The University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we illustrate how surveys can be used to elicit the preferences of the public and of policymakers and city officials for regeneration projects at urban sites. Our methodology uses rating exercises, coupled with conjoint-choice stated preferences for the general public and with ranking exercises for the public officials and other stakeholders, and is then applied to investigate alternative reuses of the Venice Arsenale, Italy, and their economic, environmental and social impacts. One interesting feature of the conjoint choice questions for members of the public is that the responses to these questions can be used to estimate the social benefits of regeneration projects, i.e., how much people are willing to pay for these urban transformations. Another advantage of our approach is that it can be used seek and foster broader public participation into urban decisionmaking processes. |
| Keywords: | Land Use, Decision-Making, Cleanup, Sustainable Development, Local Economic Development, Choice Experiments |
| JEL: | R14 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.137&r=dcm |
| By: | Theocharis N. Grigoriadis (The European Union Delegation to Russia); Benno Torgler (University of California) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relative impact of regional energy production on the legislative choices of Russian Duma deputies on energy regulation between 1994 and 2003. We apply Poole’s optimal classification method of roll call votes using an ordered probit model to explain energy law reform in the first decade of Russia’s democratic transition. Our goal is to analyze the relative importance of home energy on deputies’ behavior, controlling for other factors such as party affiliation, electoral mandate, committee membership and socio-demographic parameters. We observe that energy resource factors have a considerable effect on deputies’ voting behavior. On the other hand, we concurrently find that regional economic preferences are constrained by the public policy priorities of the federal center that continue to set the tone in energy law reform in post-Soviet Russia. |
| Keywords: | Energy Regulation, Energy Roll Law Reform, Energy Resources, Roll Call Votes, Legislative Politics, State Duma, Russia |
| JEL: | Q40 D72 K23 P27 P37 P31 R11 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.146&r=dcm |
| By: | Siv Gustafsson (Universiteit van Amsterdam); Seble Y. Worku (Universiteit van Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of local marriage markets on South African women’s marital decisions. The analysis is motivated by the low proportion of married among African mothers since 48% are never married. This means that the children of all these never married mothers have no access to their fathers' resources. The low sex ratio of 92 men to 100 women among Africans aged 20-40 makes us believe that shortage of marriageable men may explain marriage patterns. Economic theory predicts less attractive marital outcomes for women when the sex ratio is low. We analyze this hypothesis using the 2001 Census of South Africa. An ordered probit model is fitted with the different marital type ranked from less desirable (never married) to more attractive (married civil). The estimation results suggest that both the quantity and quality of marriageable men matter in the marital choice of women who have at least one child. Exposing African women to the White woman’s marriage market and the achievement of educational levels similar to those of Whites increase their probability of marriage by 8%, implying that only 44% of African women are expected to marry even given good marital opportunities and improved levels of education. |
| Keywords: | local marriage market; sex ratio; marriageable men; ordered probit; African; White |
| JEL: | D1 J1 |
| Date: | 2006–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060102&r=dcm |
| By: | Guido Citoni (University "La Sapienza" Rome and DULBEA, Free University of Brussels.) |
| Abstract: | Using the data collected for the year 2004 in the Belgian Health Survey, we aim to show that, controlling for all the determinants of self-reported health state, there is a residual effect of geographic location on the self-assessed health, namely a more favourable scoring for individuals that are resident both in the region of Brussels and in the region of Walloonia, with respect to individuals that are resident in the Flanders. Regional effects do not change either if we take account of supply of health services or if we control for their utilization. Moreover the effect of past level of health is encompassed to test for habituation, and the results still hold. The above findings can be used both to construct “equivalent expected QALY’s or EEQ” , i.e. the average quality adjusted life years that a newborn, taking account of the different average level of health at the regional level, can expect to experience in the different geographical areas of Belgium (the three regions have approximately the same EEQ), and to predict a “need factor” to be used either for equity analysis or to ascertain its evolution in time. |
| Keywords: | Self-assessed health; Quality of life; QALY’s; Regions of Belgium; Health Survey; Ordered Probit. |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dul:wpaper:06-16rs&r=dcm |
| By: | Matthieu Bussière (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | Although many papers have already proposed empirical models of currency crises, the timing of such crises has received relatively little attention so far. Most papers use indeed a static specification and impose the same lag structure across all explanatory variables. This, by construction, prevents from specifically timing the crisis signals sent by the leading indicators. The objective here is to fill this gap by considering a set of dynamic discrete choice models. The first contribution is to identify how early in advance each explanatory variable sends a warning signal. Some indicators are found to signal a crisis in the very short run while others signal a crisis at more distant horizons. The second contribution is to show that state dependence matters, albeit mostly in the short run. The results have important implications for crisis prevention in terms of the timeliness and usefulness of the envisaged policy response. JEL Classification: C23, F15, F14. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic discrete choice, panel data, currency crises, emerging markets, balance of payments, sudden stop, debt ratios. |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070713&r=dcm |
| By: | António Afonso (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Pedro Gomes (London School of Economics & Political Science; STICERD – Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom.); Philipp Rother (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings using rating notations from the three main international rating agencies, for the period 1995-2005. We employ panel estimation and random effects ordered probit approaches to assess the explanatory power of several macroeconomic and public governance variables. Our results point to a good performance of the estimated models, across agencies and across the time dimension, as well as a good overall prediction power. Relevant explanatory variables for a country's credit rating are: GDP per capita, GDP growth, government debt, government effectiveness indicators, external debt, external reserves, and default history. JEL Classification: C23, C25, E44, F30, F34, G15, H63. |
| Keywords: | Credit ratings, sovereign debt, rating agencies, panel data, random effects ordered probit. |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070711&r=dcm |