|
on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Ariel Rubinstein; Yuval Salant |
| Date: | 2005–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levrem:784828000000000091&r=dcm |
| By: | Vincent, BODART (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics); Konstantin, KHOLODILIN; Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to elaborate econometric models that can be used to forecast the turning points of the Belgian business cycle. We begin by suggesting three reference cycle, which we hope will fill the void of an official reference chronology for Belgium. We then construct two different types of model to estimate the probabilities of recession : Markov-switching models, and Logit models. We apply each approach to a limited set of data, which are a good representation of the economy, are available early and are subject to only minor revisions. We then select the best performing model for each chronology and type of approach. The out-of-sample results show that the models provide useful indicators of business cycle turning points. They are however far from perfect forecasting tools, especially when it comes to forecasting periods of classical recession. |
| Keywords: | Refrence chronologies; Markov-Switching and Logit models, forecasting business cycle turning points |
| JEL: | C5 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2005–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvec:2005006&r=dcm |
| By: | Julie A. Nelson |
| Abstract: | Does Rational Choice Theory (RCT) have something important to contribute to the humanities? Jon Elster and others answer affirmatively, arguing that RCT is a powerful tool that will lend clarity and rigor to work in the humanities just as it (presumably) has in economics. This essay examines the disciplinary values according to which the application of RCT in economics has been judged a “success,” and suggests that this value system does not deserve general approbation. Richness and realism must be retained as important values alongside precision and elegance, if anti-scientific dogmatism and absurd conclusions are to be avoided. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dae:daepap:05-04&r=dcm |
| By: | Javier Herrera (DIAL, Paris); François Roubaud (DIAL, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Du fait du manque de données de panel, il existe peu d’études sur la dynamique de la pauvreté dans les pays en développement. De plus, il est difficile d’en tirer des conclusions générales en raison des différences méthodologiques entre elles. Notre étude sur la dynamique de la pauvreté urbaine à Madagascar et au Pérou est basée sur un large panel de ménages couvrant la période 1997-1999. En appliquant des méthodes rigoureusement comparables dans les deux pays, nous cherchons à identifier les traits généraux et spécifiques de la pauvreté chronique et transitoire. L’importance des transitions de pauvreté, ainsi que les caractéristiques des ménages pauvres (de manière transitoire ou chronique), sont d’abord étudiées. A l’aide d’un modèle logit multinomial, on mesure ensuite la contribution à la pauvreté chronique et aux transitions de pauvreté (entrées/sorties) de trois groupes de variables : caractéristiques des ménages (démographiques, capital humain et physique) ; chocs subis par les ménages (démographiques et liés au marché du travail) ; variables géographiques liées au voisinage (fourniture de biens publics, niveau de revenu, capital humain et structure de l’emploi, etc.). Nos résultats infirment la thèse selon laquelle les chocs seraient la seule variable explicative des formes transitoires de pauvreté. Le mode d’entrée sur le marché du travail, ainsi que les caractéristiques du voisinage apparaissent également pertinentes pour l’analyse de la dynamique de la pauvreté. Nos résultats suggèrent que la dimension liée à l’inégalité spatiale mériterait d’être analysée dans les analyses sur les dynamiques de pauvreté et de revenus. |
| Keywords: | dynamique de la pauvreté, inégalité, Pérou, Madagascar, modèle logit multinomial, panel |
| JEL: | I32 D63 D31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:106&r=dcm |
| By: | Javier Herrera (DIAL, Paris); Gerardo David Rosas Shady (DIAL, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Traditional labor market analysis based solely on the net unemployment rate fails to explain the apparent paradox between a relatively moderate unemployment rate in Peru (around 10%, with a weak sensibility to wide macroeconomic fluctuations), and the fact that unemployment is one of the major issues in Peru. One possible explanation is that this static indicator of cross section net unemployment balance is compatible with high flows in and out of employment states. To address these issues we needed to conduct a dynamic analysis using panel data. Using the Peruvian national household survey (ENAHO), we constructed a panel of working age individuals at the national level for the period 1997-1999. Like previous work in developing countries, we found that there is an important degree of job mobility in Peru. We also found that most of the transitions occur between employment and inactivity instead of between employment and unemployment. We also showed that the rate of permanent unemployment is very low so that unemployment would be essentially a frictional phenomenon. Further, considering the different transition states, we elaborated an unconditional transition profile, including individual and household characteristics, like gender, age and education levels for example, associated with each transition status. Finally, after examining these labor market transitions and the possible sample selection bias, we estimated a multinomial logit model. This model allowed us to appreciate the (conditional) incidence of individual and household characteristics as well as the effects of different shocks on the labor transition states. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:109&r=dcm |
| By: | Walter McManus (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | The rising gasoline prices of the past few years were not associated with shifts from vehicles with lower MPG to vehicles with higher MPG. This has been seen as evidence that gasoline prices have little impact on the purchase choices of new-vehicle buyers. However, this paper presents new evidence that the shifts toward vehicles with higher MPG that the rising price of gasoline would have caused were not observed because they were offset by price cuts that were disproportionately applied to vehicles with lower MPG. |
| Keywords: | fuel economy; gasoline prices; automobile demand; nested multinomial logit; variable profit |
| JEL: | L62 |
| Date: | 2005–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0505010&r=dcm |