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on China |
| By: | Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam; Fernando Leibovici |
| Abstract: | An analysis examines China’s price advantage in U.S. import markets relative to other countries and its role as the cheapest source for many products. |
| Keywords: | imports; United States; China |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98829 |
| By: | Chunyan Dai; Michael G Pollitt |
| Keywords: | Emission Trading System (ETS), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), China’s national Emissions Trading System (CN-ETS), China’s local Emissions Trading System (CL-ETS) |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2417 |
| By: | Mr. Fei Han; Grace Li Bin; Chenqi Zhou |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the fiscal positions of local governments in China, while the recent stress in the Chinese property market has further compounded this issue, calling for stronger fiscal risk sharing among provinces. This paper examines the existing central to local governmental transfer system and its effect on interprovincial risk sharing and redistribution in China. We show that the fiscal transfers have played an important role in risk sharing although their main purpose is still redistribution. We also propose an alternative transfer mechanism with the size of transfers to each province linked to the shocks that the province is facing to enhance the fiscal risk-sharing effect. Using counterfactual simulations, we show that such an alternative mechanism can significantly enhance risk sharing among all provinces against idiosyncratic shocks while maintaining a comparable level of redistribution effect. Intergovernmental reforms and other structural measures could also be considered to further improve policy efficiency and effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Risk sharing; redistribution; intergovernmental reform; local government |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/200 |
| By: | Catherine Casanova; Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti; Swapan-Kumar Pradhan |
| Abstract: | While Chinese banks have become the top cross-border lender to EMDEs, their expansion has slowed recently, both in terms of volume and market share. Also, the strong correlation of China’s bilateral trade and its banks’ cross-border lending has weakened, while during 2020-22 lending became more positively correlated with FDI. In our paper, we analyse these patterns and we explore the role of borrower risk variables and foreign policies. Our findings show that, although the shifting correlation from trade to FDI is a general EMDE phenomenon, China’s Belt and Road Initiative reinforces it. By contrast, borrowers that potentially benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation do not display stronger FDI-lending relationships. We also find that Chinese banks exhibit different levels of risk tolerance relative to other bank nationalities as borrower country risk variables are positively correlated with Chinese banks’ market shares, but not with their amounts of cross-border lending. |
| Keywords: | ross-border lending; Chinese banks; Trade; FDI; Borrower indebtedness; Pandemic; Sanctions; Geoeconomic fragmentation |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/205 |
| By: | Flora Bellone (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; OFCE, SciencePo); Arnaud Persenda (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Paolo Zeppini (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; University of Bath, UK) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we revisit the emergence of China as a dominant player within the world economy by using the innovative framework of autocatalytic networks. Specifically, we build and apply an autocatalylic sets detection algorithm to a world input-output (IO) network built from the WIOD database, covering the 2000-2014 period. From this analysis, we identify two key turning points in the course of China development: First, the year 2005, when a Chinese densifying local autocatalytic set branched to a global one, unraveling the complementarity between domestic and international cyclical IO connections in the course of China development. Second, the year 2013, when key Chinese industries replace their U.S. counterparts at the core of the global autocatalytic set, revealing an economic rivalry between these two large economies specifically for their role and position in the global production network. |
| Keywords: | Autocatalytic networks, Trade, Input-Output tables, China |
| JEL: | F63 O14 D57 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2024-26 |
| By: | Yang, Jinyang; Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | We examine the multi-generational association of a nationwide social pension program in China, the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS). NRPS was rolled out on full scale in 2012, and rural enrollees over the age of 60 are eligible to receive an average of 102 CNY non-contributory monthly pension. We leverage age eligibility and variations in pension receipt to identify the intergenerational associations between NRPS and health among grandchildren. We find NRPS substantially increases child weight without impacting height. Overall, the child BMI z score increases by 0.87, which is largely driven by grandfathers' pension receipt raising rates of overweight and obesity among grandsons. Among the potential mechanisms, our findings are more plausibly explained by a mixture of income increase, knowledge bias of co-residing grandparents on childcare, and son preference. Potential biases from differential reporting of primary caregivers and epigenetic transmissions unlikely drive our findings. |
| Keywords: | Social pension, Child health, Inter-generational relationship, Intra-household allocation, Migration, Living arrangement, China |
| JEL: | H23 H31 H55 I38 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1503 |
| By: | Cheng, Ruoran |
| Abstract: | The Great Divergence has arguably been one of the most important debates in the field of economic history over the past two decades. This article contributes to this ongoing discussion from a novel perspective, specifically focusing on transportation conditions. Utilizing travel route books published since 16th century China, I reconstructed the national trade transport network of China during the Ming and Qing dynasties (14th to 19th centuries) and estimated transport costs and speeds in the Yangtze region during the late 17th and 18th centuries. These estimates were then compared with those of England for the same period. The findings reveal that, in the late 17th century, transport costs and speeds in the Yangtze region of China were comparable to those in England. However, a divergence emerged after 1700. This timing of divergence in transportation between the Yangtze region and England supports the strand of literature proposing that The Great Divergence began around 1700. |
| JEL: | N0 O53 L91 L96 |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:125855 |
| By: | Roser Alvarez-Klee (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Ramon Ramon Muñoz (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Demographic crises and famines were recurring phenomena in China before the mid-20th century, with the Great Leap Forward Famine of 1959-61 often regarded as the last and one of the most severe in Chinese History. This article delves into the repercussions of the Great Flood of 1975 in Henan province. We reassess the demographic implications of this hydrological catastrophe and employ a well-established methodology to identify demographic crises and occurrences of famine. Contrary to official perspectives, our findings indicate absolute mortality numbers and population losses in excess of officially accepted accounts and the emergence of localised famine episodes in the last years of Maoist China, suggesting that the last famine in China might have occurred in the mid-1970s. We argue that this demographic crisis was not solely the result of a high-magnitude natural disaster but also had other components: long-term economic policies that failed to achieve a solid and strong population’s nutritional status in Henan before 1975, along with short-term political decisions made during the flood, likely exacerbated its impact. Moreover, this disaster cannot be viewed in isolation from Mao's hydraulic policies in the 1950s. |
| Keywords: | Demographic crisis, famine, hydraulic catastrophe, nutritional conditions, China |
| JEL: | I18 J11 N55 Q10 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0269 |
| By: | Akira Kohsaka (Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | Despite her recent “unprecedentedly” high and sustained economic growth, China has been long expected to suffer from sudden growth slowdown soon and eventually. We examine her growth pattern in the past three decades as income catching-up processes in developing economies such as those in East Asia, analyzing it in the conventional framework of economic growth based on an internationally comparable macroeconomic database. We find that her growth pattern is not exceptional in any sense, but very parallel with forerunners in East Asia, and that her growth is still in an early stage, so that we argue that her catching -up could be sustained, even if it were for possible short-term growth slowdowns. |
| Keywords: | neoclassical economic growth, growth decomposition, growth paths, China, East Asia |
| JEL: | E10 E2 E20 F3 O4 O40 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:24e006 |
| By: | Joe Long; Carlo Medici; Nancy Qian; Marco Tabellini |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic consequences of the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act, which banned immigration from China to the United States. The Act reduced the number of Chinese workers of all skill levels residing in the U.S. It also reduced the labor supply and the quality of jobs held by white and U.S.-born workers, the intended beneficiaries of the Act, and reduced manufacturing output. The results suggest that the Chinese Exclusion Act slowed economic growth in western states until at least 1940. |
| JEL: | J15 J6 N01 N91 N92 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33019 |
| By: | Martins, Pedro S.; Dai, Li; Duan, Wenjing |
| Abstract: | Local labour market concentration may influence firms' employment responses to minimum wages. We evaluate this hypothesis using comprehensive 1998-2007 data on China's manufacturing sector and about 1, 400 hand-collected county-level minimum wages. We find that, consistently with monopsony views, the negative effects of minimum wages on employment are reduced when labour market concentration is higher. We also find positive employment effects of minimum wages, but only in some specifications and in highly concentrated labour markets (representing a relatively small share of employment). Firms' training provision is also harmed less by minimum wages in more concentrated local markets. Our findings highlight the heterogeneity of policy impacts across local labour markets. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages, labour market concentration, employment, monopsony, training |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1504 |
| By: | Masaki Mori; Hua Fan; Chen Zheng |
| Abstract: | This paper primarily explores the impact and mechanisms of smart city policies on innovation output in China’s listed enterprises. Using a sample of A-share listed companies in 246 cities from 2004 to 2019, we employ the Staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) method to analyse the influence of smart city policies on corporate innovation. Simultaneously, we also analyse the impact mechanisms of smart city policies on corporate innovation activities from the perspectives of industry competition, agglomeration of smart city development-related industries, internet development, and enterprise digital transformation.The study reveals that smart city policies effectively promote innovation output in China’s listed companies. From the perspective of industrial development, smart city policies have substantially stimulated cities’ lower competitive enterprises to innovate, and promoted innovations through agglomeration of industries which are closely related to smart city development.From the perspective of technological development, smart city policies enhance the innovation capabilities of enterprises through the application of the Internet and information technology. Through digital transformation, enterprises can optimise department structures, reduce costs, broaden marketing channels, and improve operational efficiency, leading to further innovations.The study also finds that smart city policies significantly promote innovation output in state-owned, large, and mature enterprises. However, the impact on innovation in non-state-owned, small and medium-sized enterprises is not pronounced and may even hinder innovation. Additionally, the influence of smart city policies on corporate innovation exhibits regional imbalances, with innovative effects being significant in economically advanced first-tier cities, as well as third, fourth and fifth-tier cities. The innovation effect in medium-developed second-tier cities is not significant. These findings indicate potential design flaws and implementation constraints in smart city policies, suggesting a failure to adequately consider the actual needs and challenges of small to medium-sized enterprises and medium-developed cities, leading to unequal resource distribution. |
| Keywords: | Chinese corporations; Innovation; Smart City |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-050 |
| By: | Liming Yao; Zou Jing; Wang Baitao |
| Abstract: | The discussion on the return intentions of migrants and its influencing factors has been widely discussed. Existing research indicates that factors such as economic status, household registration status, identity recognition, and urban integration can largely influence the willingness of rural migrants to return home. Additionally, with the development of the digital economy, engaging in entrepreneurship has also to some extent encouraged rural migrants to go back home. Considering the rapid increase in housing prices in China over the past decade, issues related to housing affordability have undoubtedly become factors prompting rural migrants’ return intention. Considering rural migrants are more disadvantaged in receiving housing assistance in residing cities, housing difficulties, especially housing affordability issues are therefore further accelerating their willingness to return home. However, many existing studies on housing affordability focus on the nation as a whole, with little attention on disadvantaged groups such as rural migrants. Therefore, this paper integrates the issues of housing difficulties with the return intentions of rural migrants, exploring how housing difficulties have impacted their willingness to return home using China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) 2017 data. Two variables were constructed to measure housing difficulties: subjective and objective housing difficulties. Subjective housing difficulties were determined through survey questions asking whether migrants experience housing difficulties. Housing affordability ratio is adopted to evaluate the subjective housing difficulties encountered by migrants. We used the macro house prices data on the residing cities and the micro household income included in the survey to calculate the house price to income ratio. Based on the international threshold, the housing price-to-income ratio higher than 3 is considered to have objective housing difficulties. We investigated the impact of subjective and objective housing difficulties on rural migrants’ return intention. Using a probit and IV Probit model, our research evidenced a negative relationship between subjective housing difficulties and return intention. Self-reporting housing difficulties didn’t really increase the likelihood of returning home, because this variable was often influenced by individual risk preferences. While it is evidenced that objective housing difficulties have positive impact on return intention. Specifically, the higher the house price to income ratio, the higher likelihood of returning home. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the relationship between objective and subjective housing difficulties and the return intention of migrants varies across different levels of economic development in residing cities, educational achievement, and age group. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; IV probit; Return intention; Rural migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-118 |
| By: | Si-yao Wei; Wei-xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | Resilience serves to assess the ability of financial markets to resist external shocks. The intensity and duration, used to indicate resilience, are calculated for China's financial markets in this paper, focusing on the performance of each financial market during and after several crises. Given that climate issues have been recognized as an important source of risk by financial markets, we also investigate the spillover effects and mechanism of China's climate policy uncertainty on its financial markets resilience. We have found that the two resilience indicators of each market have a relatively consistent trend, but spillovers among markets have different sensitivities to the both. In addition, China's climate policy uncertainty shocks its financial markets resilience by increasing the investor sentiment index and the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks and by reducing the capital and financial account balance. It is further found that China's financial markets' consensus on the unswerving implementation of climate policy, which provides the reference for other countries on how to balance climate policies introduction and financial markets development. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.18422 |