|
on China |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Kyle Handley; André Kurmann; Philip A. Luck |
| Abstract: | Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-65 |
| By: | Wu, Qiang; Tong, Guangyu; Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to describe and explain the long-term evolution of wage inequality in imperial China, covering over two millennia from the Han dynasty to the Qing dynasty (202 BCE-1912 CE). Based on historical government records of official salaries, commodity prices, and agricultural productivity, we convert various forms of salaries to equivalent rice volumes and comparable salary benchmarks. Wage inequality is measured by salary ratios and (partial) Gini coefficients between official and peasant classes as well as within the official class. The inter-class wage inequality features an “inverted U†pattern—first rose before the Tang dynasty and then declined afterwards (the “inverted U†trends) with “inverted u†dynastic cycles. The intra-class wage inequality has a secular decline trend. We propose a unified framework incorporating technological, institutional, political, and social (TIPS) mechanisms to explain both long-term and short-term patterns. It is concluded that the technological mechanism dominated the rise of wage inequality, while the political mechanism (emperor-bureaucracy power tensions) drove the decline. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Growth; Social Norms; China |
| JEL: | D31 P16 N15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2024/23 |
| By: | Margot Belguise, Margot (Department of Economics, Warwick University); Chen, Nora Yuqian (Department of Government, Harvard University); Huang, Yuchen (Department of Economics, Sciences Po Paris;); Zhexun Mo, Zhenxun (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, GC-CUNY & World Inequality Lab) |
| Abstract: | China has experienced a remarkable rise in living standards over four decades of economic reforms, alongside a tremendous increase in inequalities. In this context, do Chinese people support redistribution of wealth gained through reform windfalls? To answer this question, we conducted an online survey experiment with a nationally representative sample from China (N = 2, 000). The treatment group was shown examples of wealth acquired through typical reform-era pathways requiring minimal ability or effort. This exposure led to a 0.1 standard deviation decrease in their support for redistribution. We propose a “reform windfall as redistribution” mechanism to explain this reduction : the treated group perceives the reform era as inherently redistributive, providing opportunities to escape systemic inequalities tied to the political system, thereby reducing the perceived need for formal redistribution. This decline in support is not driven by changes in fairness perceptions, as respondents do not attribute the wealth acquisition scenarios to ability or effort, nor do they view them as distinctly fair or unfair. Furthermore, we find limited evidence of heterogeneity, with one exception: individuals reporting higher economic pressure show an even greater reduction in redistributive support when exposed to the treatment. We hypothesize that this occurs because unmet expectations for upward mobility exacerbate their reactions to the treatment scenarios. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1532 |
| By: | Ivan DESEATNICOV; FUKAO Kyoji |
| Abstract: | The increased export controls on advanced technologies like semiconductors imposed by the U.S. and aligned countries targeting primarily China are accelerating technological decoupling. What are consequences of this process on global value chains (GVCs) dominated by the activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs)? To answer this question, we use Japanese microdata for the period 2017–2021. We find an increase in the exit of Japanese MNEs from China. Building on this observation, we hypothesize that this increase in exits may have been triggered by an increase in production costs brought about by a decline in the variety of imported intermediate inputs as a direct consequence of the increased export controls. We offer a simple theoretical framework to rationalize this mechanism, which guided us in creating an export controls index using a detailed review of U.S. Federal Register documents and input-output tables. Our empirical analysis of the probability of exit confirms that the reduction in imported intermediate inputs plays an important role in the behavior of Japanese MNEs. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24082 |
| By: | Elhan-Kayalar, Yesim (Asian Development Bank); Kucheryavyy, Konstantin (CUNY Baruch College); Nose, Manabu (International Monetary Fund); Sawada, Yasuyuki (University of Tokyo); Shangguan, Ruo (Jinan University); Thanh Tung, Nguyen (National Economics University) |
| Abstract: | In developing economies, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role by providing resources that facilitate participation in international trade and support economic development. Focusing on Viet Nam as a case study, this research aims to quantify the distributional effects of the United States–People’s Republic of China trade dispute across different regions in Viet Nam. By utilizing detailed firm-level and customs data, we demonstrate that FDI in Viet Nam is geographically concentrated in the northern, central, and southern regions. Access to road and port networks significantly influences the choice of FDI locations. Furthermore, we highlight the important role that the foreign affiliates of multinational firms from East Asia and the United States have played in reshaping Viet Nam’s trade flows in the aftermath of the trade dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. This study sheds light on the interplay between transport infrastructure, FDI, and international trade. |
| Keywords: | trade; ports; roads; US–PRC trade dispute; Viet Nam; PRC |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 R40 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0761 |
| By: | Tony Andreani (Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - Département Science Politique - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis); Rémy Herrera (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Zhiming Long (THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04796824 |
| By: | Yixun Kang; Ying Li |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the extent to which China's economic growth and development influence poverty levels, focusing on the dichotomy between absolute and relative poverty. Leveraging data from sources like the World Bank, Statista, and Macrotrends, and employing economic frameworks such as the Lewis Model, Poverty Headcount Ratio, and Gini Coefficient, the study examines China's transformation from combating absolute poverty to addressing relative poverty. The findings highlight that robust economic growth from 2011 to 2022, driven by urban development and rural infrastructure investments, successfully eradicated absolute poverty and elevated rural incomes. However, this progress also exacerbated income inequality, as evidenced by a rising Gini Coefficient, complicating efforts to alleviate relative poverty. Through multidimensional analyses encompassing regional disparities, migration patterns, educational access, and societal factors, the paper underscores the dual impact of economic development on poverty alleviation. It concludes by advocating for policies that balance economic growth with equitable resource distribution to tackle persistent relative poverty and foster sustainable development. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.20176 |
| By: | Cavalcanti, T.; Mohaddes, K.; Nian, H.; Yin, H. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the long-term impact of air pollution on firm-level R&D human capital composition and innovation, as well as the strategies firms adopt to mitigate these effects. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design based on China’s Huai River heating policy and exploring a novel dataset with detailed information on firm-level R&D sector, we show that prolonged exposure to air pollution significantly reduces the proportion of R&D workers with advanced degrees, such as PhDs and master’s degrees. To counteract these challenges, firms in polluted areas increase their reliance on external strategies, such as acquiring technology and collaborating with universities, and adopt internal measures, including enhanced welfare subsidies for R&D staff and greater investment in experimental instruments. Despite these efforts, firms in polluted areas still produce lower R&D value compared to those in cleaner regions. Our results highlight the key importance of internal human capital in complementing external technological investments. |
| Keywords: | adaptive strategies, air pollution, firm value, innovation, R&D human capital composition |
| Date: | 2024–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2466 |
| By: | Cassidy, Alecia Waite; Wu, Fangjian; Zhang, Yiyuan |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of a pollution liability insurance mandate on corporate environmental compliance in Shenzhen, China. We employ a triple differences design, comparing electroplating and circuit board manufacturing firms, mandated to purchase insurance, to industries and a neighboring city without the mandate. Results show a 0.48 reduction in annual environmental violations per firm (a 72% decrease). Only about half of firms comply. Within the Shenzhen electroplating and circuit board industry, we find that insured firms violate more than uninsured firms (an increase of about 0.09 annual violations). We find suggestive evidence that this increase is driven by moral hazard rather than adverse selection. Taken as a whole, our findings demonstrate that premium-based incentives effectively counteract market failures due to asymmetric information, increasing environmental compliance on net. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht die Auswirkungen einer Haftpflichtversicherung für Umweltverschmutzung auf die Einhaltung von Umweltvorschriften durch Unternehmen in Shenzhen, China. Wir verwenden ein Triple-Differenzen-Design und vergleichen Unternehmen der Galvanik- und Leiterplattenherstellung, die zum Abschluss einer Versicherung verpflichtet sind, mit Industrien und einer benachbarten Stadt ohne dieses Mandat. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine Verringerung der jährlichen Umweltverstöße pro Unternehmen um 0, 48 (ein Rückgang um 72 %). Nur etwa die Hälfte der Unternehmen erfüllt die Auflagen. In der Shenzhener Galvanik- und Leiterplattenindustrie stellen wir fest, dass versicherte Unternehmen mehr Verstöße begehen als nicht versicherte Unternehmen (ein Anstieg von etwa 0, 09 jährlichen Verstößen). Wir finden Hinweise darauf, dass dieser Anstieg eher auf moralisches Risiko als auf negative Selektion zurückzuführen ist. Insgesamt zeigen unsere Ergebnisse, dass prämienbasierte Anreize Marktversagen aufgrund asymmetrischer Informationen wirksam entgegenwirken und die Einhaltung der Umweltvorschriften insgesamt verbessern. |
| Keywords: | Environmental compliance, liability insurance, moral hazard, adverse selection |
| JEL: | Q52 Q53 Q58 K32 G22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306831 |