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on China |
| By: | Eeva Kerola; Benoit Mojon |
| Abstract: | It is important to understand the growth process under way in China. However, analyses of Chinese growth became increasingly more difficult after the real GDP doubling target was announced in 2012 and the official real GDP statistics lost their fluctuations. With a dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from two decades, we have substantially more variation to work with. We find robust evidence that the richness of the provincial data provides information relevant to understand and project Chinese aggregates. Using this provincial data, we build an alternative indicator for Chinese growth that is able to reveal fluctuations not present in the official statistical series. Additionally, we concentrate on the determinants of Chinese growth and show how the drivers have gone through a substantial change over time both across economic variables and provinces. We introduce a method to understand the changing nature of Chinese growth that can be updated regularly using principal components derived from the provincial data. |
| Keywords: | China, GDP, provincial data, business cycles, principal component |
| JEL: | C38 E01 E3 P2 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:925&r=all |
| By: | Pushkar Maitra; Nidhiya Menon; Chau Tran |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of season of birth on height, cognitive ability, and non-cognitive ability of Chinese children. We find that the child's season of birth has a significant impact on the height of girls aged less than five years in agricultural households: girls born in winter have lower height as compared to girls born in other seasons. We find, however, that this relative height differential does not translate to deficits in cognitive and non-cognitive skills when girls are adolescents. We argue that compensating investments by parents, manifested through higher parental expectations on educational attainment for poorly endowed winter-born girls, is an explanation for why the initial height disadvantage does not have persisting implications in terms of ability when girls are older |
| Keywords: | Child Health, Cognitive and Non Cognitive Skills, Compensating Investments, Season of Birth, China |
| JEL: | O15 I15 J13 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2018-09&r=all |
| By: | Xingcai Zhou; Jiangyan Wang |
| Abstract: | China has made great achievements in electric power industry during the long-term deepening of reform and opening up. However, the complex regional economic, social and natural conditions, electricity resources are not evenly distributed, which accounts for the electricity deficiency in some regions of China. It is desirable to develop a robust electricity forecasting model. Motivated by which, we propose a Panel Semiparametric Quantile Regression Neural Network (PSQRNN) by utilizing the artificial neural network and semiparametric quantile regression. The PSQRNN can explore a potential linear and nonlinear relationships among the variables, interpret the unobserved provincial heterogeneity, and maintain the interpretability of parametric models simultaneously. And the PSQRNN is trained by combining the penalized quantile regression with LASSO, ridge regression and backpropagation algorithm. To evaluate the prediction accuracy, an empirical analysis is conducted to analyze the provincial electricity consumption from 1999 to 2018 in China based on three scenarios. From which, one finds that the PSQRNN model performs better for electricity consumption forecasting by considering the economic and climatic factors. Finally, the provincial electricity consumptions of the next $5$ years (2019-2023) in China are reported by forecasting. |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.00711&r=all |
| By: | Werner Hölzl |
| Abstract: | This research studies the effect of import competition from China for the period after the financial crisis 2008-09 until 2014. It draws on a unique dataset containing employment information for 248 regions in the EU. The uncovered coefficients are statistically not significant, indicating that Chinese imports were not an important driver of deindustrialisation in Europe in the period analysed. The estimates are imprecise, however. An analysis of the economic importance of the results leads to the conclusion that Chinese import competition was not a primary driving force of European manufacturing employment. Possible explanations for the lack of significant results are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Employment, China, EU, Regions |
| Date: | 2021–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2021:i:622&r=all |
| By: | Kang, Shulong; Dong, Jianfeng; Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Dinger, Valeriya |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how government-led banking liberalization affects credit allocation by banks using as a quasi-natural experiment the establishment of city commercial banks (CCBs) in China. Based on more than three million corporate financial statements spanning over 16 years, we find that the establishment of CCBs led to a 6–14 % drop in debt funding for private firms, as well as a 1–2 % rise in their funding costs. At the same time, private infrastructure firms enjoyed a nearly 6 % increase in debt funding and more than 100-basis-point drop in interest costs despite their inferior credit quality. The debt financing of private firm appears most severely affected in municipalities where officials face high promotional pressures or fiscal constraints. |
| JEL: | D7 G21 G32 G38 P2 |
| Date: | 2021–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2021_004&r=all |
| By: | Lin, Zhuoer; Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | We examine the long-term relationship between childhood circumstances and cognitive aging. In particular, we differentiate the level of cognitive deficit from the rate of cognitive decline. Applying a linear mixed-effect model to three waves of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS 2011, 2013, 2015) and matching cognitive outcomes to CHARLS Life History Survey (2014), we find that key domains of childhood circumstances, including family socioeconomic status (SES), neighborhood cohesion, friendship and health conditions, are significantly associated with both the level of cognitive deficit and the rate of decline. In contrast, childhood neighborhood safety only affects the level of cognitive deficit. Childhood relationship with mother only affects the rate of cognitive decline. The effects of adverse childhood circumstances are generally larger on level of cognitive deficit than on rate of cognitive decline. Moreover, education plays a more important role in mediating the relationships compared to other later-life factors. These findings suggest that exposure to disadvantaged childhood circumstances can exacerbate cognitive deficit as well as cognitive decline over time, which may be partially ameliorated by educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | Childhood circumstances,life course factors,cognitive aging,education |
| JEL: | I14 I24 J13 J14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:794&r=all |
| By: | Christensen, Rasmus Corlin (Copenhagen Business School); Hearson, Martin |
| Abstract: | Debate over the taxation of international business has focused on the importance of the United States and its large tech firms, paying low tax rates by using tax havens, in shaping the global political agenda. Yet in an era of China’s rise to power, this focus has overlooked both China’s influential political engagement with the global tax system, and how its changing economy alters its interests at home and abroad. In this paper, we address this oversight by providing an account of the sources and nature of the new Chinese global tax diplomacy. We argue that China's becoming a global net capital exporter, emergence as a major consumer market, and the growth of its own digital giant firms like Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba, underpins its interest in simultaneous ‘going out’ and ‘bringing in’ foreign direct investment by selectively and strategically engaging with Western-liberal institutions. Specifically, we show how China variously challenges, defends, and develops alternatives to global tax standards in three cases: global efforts to tackle corporate tax avoidance, bilateral tax treaty negotiations, and administrative tax cooperation. A better understanding of China’s significant, distinctive and varying diplomatic engagement with Western economic institutions, will help inform debates on the Chinese business-politics nexus and expand analyses of global tax and economic politics beyond US-centrism |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pzvy3&r=all |
| By: | Jianchao Fan; Jing Liu; Yinggang Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how China's local governments make investment via financing vehicles (LGFVs) and provides new insights on often-criticised LGFVs from a different perspective. Using data for 4,432 LGFVs from 1,225 counties across China between 2005 and 2018, we show that since 2014, the function of LGFVs has changed from financing conduits to conglomerate platforms with more diversified investments. While a certain level of diversification can be a blessing for local economic growth, over-diversification is a curse. Such an inverted U-shaped relationship depends on the condition of the local economy. Over-diversification may lead to rising local debt and crowding-out effects on private investment. |
| Keywords: | local government financing vehicle, diversified investment, government debt, conglomerate |
| JEL: | E61 G21 H72 O17 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:920&r=all |
| By: | Klaus S. Friesenbichler; Agnes Kügler; Andreas Reinstaller |
| Abstract: | We revisit the impact of rising imports from China on within firm labour productivity growth in the EU. The period analysed is 2003 through 2016 and thus covers the recent increase of technology-intensive imports from China. We find that higher fractions of Chinese imports in aggregate imports slow down labour productivity growth of domestic firms in Europe. The adverse effect becomes more pronounced at higher growth rates. Multinationals are able to partly compensate the negative effects of import competition and benefit from Chinese imports at higher productivity growth intensities. The effects are strongest for local firms and firms in low tech industries. No effects were found for firms in high-tech industries. |
| Keywords: | Import Competition, Multinational Firms, Productivity, Manufacturing, EU, China |
| Date: | 2021–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2021:i:623&r=all |
| By: | Agnes Kügler; Klaus S. Friesenbichler; Cornelius Hirsch |
| Abstract: | Austria is a small open economy that in the last decades underwent two different waves of increasing trade integration: one with Eastern Europe and one with China. This paper studies the effects of increases in trade with China and Eastern Europe on labour market dynamics in Austrian NUTS-4 regions for two ten-year periods between 1995 and 2015. Given the limited data available, the current analysis could not identify significant effects on aggregate labour dynamics neither for rising imports from Eastern Europe or China, nor for rising exports to Eastern Europe. However, there is weak evidence that exports to China have facilitated employment growth, especially in high quality segments. Overall, these results add a cautious perspective to the discussion of import competition. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Employment, China, Eastern Europe, Austria |
| Date: | 2021–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2021:i:624&r=all |
| By: | Billio, Monica; Lo, Andrew W.; Pelizzon, Loriana; Getmansky, Mila; Zareei, Abalfazl |
| Abstract: | The centrality of the United States in the global financial system is taken for granted, but its response to recent political and epidemiological events has suggested that China now holds a comparable position. Using minute-by-minute data from 2012 to 2020 on the financial performance of twelve country-specific exchange-traded funds, we construct daily snapshots of the global financial network and analyze them for the centrality and connectedness of each country in our sample. We find evidence that the U.S. was central to the global financial system into 2018, but that the U.S.-China trade war of 2018-2019 diminished its centrality, and the Covid-19 outbreak of 2019-2020 increased the centrality of China. These indicators may be the first signals that the global financial system is moving from a unipolar to a bipolar world. |
| Keywords: | Network theory,Centrality,High Frequency Data,ETFs,Financial Crises,Covid-19,International Finance |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:304&r=all |
| By: | Kaku Attah Damoah,; Giorgia Giovannetti; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between trade patterns and the allocation of investment projects carried out under the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Rooted on a novel database, we construct the intermediate trade network and assess its role in the allocation of the projects. Investments tend to concentrate in countries located in central nodes of the international production networks as well as towards suppliers of intermediate goods whose revealed comparative advantage (RCA) overlaps with China. High income countries closer to destination markets tend to attract fewer but larger investments. Controlling for gravity variables as well as for political proximity to China adds explanatory power without affecting the results on the importance of trade. The BRI represents an opportunity for China to upgrade its exports and for the countries receiving investments to enhance their participation in GVC with possible positive impact on development. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road, China, global value chains, trade in intermediates, network-centrality. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2021_03.rdf&r=all |
| By: | Tianyi Li; Jiawen Luo; Cunrui Huang |
| Abstract: | Multiple small- to middle-scale cities, mostly located in northern China, became epidemic hotspots during the second wave of the spread of COVID-19 in early 2021. Despite qualitative discussions of potential social-economic causes, it remains unclear how this pattern could be accounted for from a quantitative approach. Through the development of an urban epidemic hazard index (EpiRank), we came up with a mathematical explanation for this phenomenon. The index is constructed from epidemic simulations on a multi-layer transportation network model on top of local SEIR transmission dynamics, which characterizes intra- and inter-city compartment population flow with a detailed mathematical description. Essentially, we argue that these highlighted cities possess greater epidemic hazards due to the combined effect of large regional population and small inter-city transportation. The proposed index, dynamic and applicable to different epidemic settings, could be a useful indicator for the risk assessment and response planning of urban epidemic hazards in China; the model framework is modularized and can be adapted for other nations without much difficulty. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.05189&r=all |
| By: | Kaku Attah Damoah,; Giorgia Giovannetti; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | Since the start of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative, several countries became involved and some of them received investment projects. Using data for the period 2012-2018, we show that pre-existing trade patterns are related to the likelihood to participate in the initiative and receive investments. We summarize our findings into five stylized facts. First, BRI countries with completed projects tend to be poorer and larger. Second, projects are more likely to occur in countries with intensified intermediate trade with China. Third, countries that received projects have more diversified export structures and their sectoral specialization overlaps to that of China. Fourth, among middle-high income countries, projects tend to favor those with high levels of intra-industry trade. Fifth, among BRI countries with projects, the complexity or sophistication of goods trade increases faster with income. These findings suggest that the allocation of BRI investments partially reflects the trade patterns, favoring destinations with specific characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road, China, global value chains, trade in intermediates, centrality, networks. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2021_02.rdf&r=all |