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on China |
| By: | Wang, Haiyan; Malaga, Jaime |
| Abstract: | The large volume of sorghum imports for feed use since 2013 has rapidly made China the largest export destination for sorghum, especially sorghum from the U.S., which has sent about 90% of its sorghum exports to China by MY 2014/2015. The main reason for China’s increasing imports of sorghum may be related to its corn domestic and trade policies, which pushed up domestic corn prices. Because sorghum is a cheap close substitute for corn, the large price gap between these two grains attracted livestock industries to shift part of their feed grain use from corn to sorghum as the price of corn continued to rise. In order to estimate and forecast the prices of sorghum and corn in China, this study developed a price determination model by using a stocks-to-use ratio formulation to capture market supply and demand factors. The government policy effect has also been included in the model. A baseline projection and three simulation scenarios were performed to forecast the Chinese corn and sorghum prices from 2015 to 2019. Results of the study indicated that prices for Chinese corn and sorghum may be declining in the next five years and the price of sorghum would be lower than the price of corn. In addition, the three simulation scenarios suggested that price differences between these two grains would be smaller if the Chinese government would eliminate its temporary corn reserve program. |
| Keywords: | Sorghum, Corn, China, Price, Stocks-to-use ratio, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, F17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229887&r=cna |
| By: | Rakotoarisoa, Manitera A.; Fang, Cheng |
| Abstract: | Trade between China and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is characterized by China’s importing mining and extraction from SSA and SSA’s importing manufactured goods from China. We perform accounting and simulation exercises to analyze how trade policy and productivity shocks will reduce SSA's dependency on raw material export to China. Scenarios include tariff elimination by China, common external tariff in SSA, and free regional trade in SSA. We also include shifts in labour productivity in SSA’s agriculture and manufacturing sectors and simulate technology spillover from SSA imports from China. Results show that tariff elimination by China increases SSA’s employment and welfare. Raising tariffs on manufactured goods from China reduces welfare and employment by harming consumers and the agriculture sectors dependent on intermediate goods from China. Increase in labour productivity and technical progress in SSA’s manufacturing sectors improve welfare but will not alter the high share of mining and extraction export to China. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212695&r=cna |
| By: | Jing Cao (Harvard China Project, Harvard University Center for the Environment and School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University, Beijing) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the potential impact of two environmental tax regimes on the movement of rural people to China's cities. The study models the impact of a fuel tax and an output tax on the country's economy to get a full picture of how they would affect people's livelihoods and welfare, and how this would, in turn, affect rural-urban migration. The study sheds light on the implications of future environmental taxes and how they would affect urbanization and "rural-urban" migration in China. The study finds that both proposed taxes would discourage the flow of migrants from China's countryside to its cities. This would therefore exacerbate the current distortions in the country's labour market, where there is a surplus of rural labour. A comparison of the impact of the two taxes shows the fuel tax to be more efficient in terms of reducing pollution emissions and their associated environmental and health impacts. It also produces less distortion in the rural-urban migration process than the output tax. The study therefore recommends that this would be the preferable policy. |
| Keywords: | environmental taxation, rural-urban, China |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb2016044&r=cna |
| By: | Wang, Xiaobing; Yamauchi, Futoshi; Otsuka, Keijiro; Huang, Jikun |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine the dynamics of land transactions, machine investments and the demand for machine services using farm panel data from China. Recently, China’s agriculture has experienced a large expansion of machine rentals and machine services provided by specialized agents, which has contributed to mechanization of agricultural production. The empirical results show that an increase in non-agricultural wage rates leads to expansion of self-cultivated land size. A rise in the proportion of non-agricultural income or the migration rate also increases the size of self-cultivated land. Interestingly, relatively educated farm households, however, decrease the size of self-cultivated land, which suggests that relatively less educated farmers tend to specialize in farming. The demand for machine services has also increased if agricultural wage and migration rate increased over time, especially among relatively large farms. The results on crop income also support complementarities between rented-in land and machine services (demanded), which implies that scale economies are arising in Chinese agriculture with mechanization and active land rental markets. |
| Keywords: | Wage growth, farm size, land rental, machine services, China, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, J31, Q12, Q15, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212722&r=cna |
| By: | Fan, Ziying (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wan, Guanghua (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Since the Tax Sharing Reform in 1994, the local government revenue of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has faced downward risk problems. This paper reviews the fiscal and taxation reforms in the central and local governments of the PRC and focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of fiscal transfers. We find that, to a certain extent, fiscal transfers significantly promote the construction of local infrastructure. Earmarked transfers had an effect, but lump-sum transfers did not. Results showed every 1% increase in earmarked transfers to be associated with a 5% increase in local spending on infrastructure. These fiscal transfers also increased the size of local government spending such that a 1% increase of fiscal transfer would increase the ratio of local fiscal spending to gross domestic product by 1%. The risk of the local fiscal revenue sources was also assessed, and results showed that land finance, local government bonds, and fiscal transfers from the central government are not sustainable in the long term. The local fiscal system in the PRC needs to focus on improving local taxes in the future, such as the property tax. |
| Keywords: | PRC fiscal risk; fiscal transfers; fiscal and tax reforms |
| JEL: | H54 H68 H71 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0567&r=cna |
| By: | Li, Jian; Chavas, Jean-Paul; Etienne, Xiaoli; Li, Chongguang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the linkages between commodity price bubbles and macroeconomic factors, with an application to agricultural commodity markets in China from 2006 to 2014. Price bubbles are identified using a newly-developed recursive right-tailed unit root test. A Zero-inflated Poisson Model is used to analyze the factors contributing to bubbles. Results show that a) there were speculative bubbles in most of the Chinese agricultural commodities during the sample period, though their presences are rather infrequent; b) economic growth, money supply and inflation have positive effects on bubble occurrences, while interest rate has a negative effect; c) among all macroeconomic factors considered, economic growth and money supply have the greatest effects on bubble occurrences. Our findings shed new light on the nature and formation of bubble behavior in the Chinese agricultural commodity markets. |
| Keywords: | price bubbles, macroeconomic factors, agricultural commodity, right-tailed unit root test, Zero-inflated Poisson model, China, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty, G12, G13, Q13, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235068&r=cna |
| By: | David Tibor Teszar |
| Abstract: | Despite being a highly relevant event in the history of the Cold War, the 1956 Hungarian revolution remains underanalyzed from the perspective of the People’s Republic of China. The domestic policy changes in the PRC that were influenced by the Hungarian uprising are equally undertreated in scholarly literature. For these reasons this paper examines the PRC’s changing perception of the nature of the 1956 Hungarian revolution and answers the question whether the Chinese leadership influenced Nikita Khrushchev and the Kremlin elite in favour of an armed intervention in Budapest. The second half of the article assesses the impact of the Hungarian crisis on Mao’s domestic policies in the late 1950s, particularly to the Hundred Flowers campaign and the AntiRightist campaign. |
| Keywords: | 1956 Hungarian Revolution; Cold War; Hungarian History; Mao Zedong; China; Soviet Union. |
| JEL: | Y8 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpr:journl:2&r=cna |
| By: | MacDonald, Stephen; Gale, Fred; Hansen, James |
| Abstract: | This report examines China’s 2011-13 attempt to maintain a high level of price support for its cotton producers, analyzing the policy’s motivation, its consequences to date, and the impacts of various adjustment alternatives China might pursue. With China’s wages rising rapidly in recent years, cotton production costs there have been rising faster than in the rest of the world. Rising costs both helped motivate China’s policymakers to strengthen their price support for cotton production in 2011 and ensured that the policy ultimately proved unsustainable. After several years of sharply lower cotton consumption and sharply rising state-owned stockpiles of cotton, China in 2014 began switching producer support to direct subsidies, and focusing support on producers in the largest producing region, Xinjiang. Additional reforms include plans to restore market forces to a leading role in determining China’s cotton prices. But China’s large role in world cotton markets and the unprecedented size of the government’s stocks mean that difficult choices lie ahead for China’s policymakers. Policy decisions in China will continue to have a significant impact on the rest of the world, and lower Chinese import quotas for cotton could reduce world cotton prices significantly. |
| Keywords: | Cotton, China, agricultural policy, price supports, trade, textiles, trade policy, WTO, industrial policy |
| JEL: | D4 F1 F13 Q1 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70863&r=cna |
| By: | Yan, Zhen; Zhou, Jie-hong |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of recent media reports on pork safety problems at source have attracted great attention and thought to be a growing threat to risk perception amplification on pork safety, even leading to public panic. This paper was among the first to explore the impact of media report about potential benefits and risk of traceability on consumer utility valuation and preference heterogeneities for select pork traits. By capturing key issues from online media reports in last three years both on benefit and risk as information shock showed to interviewees, we investigate willingness to pay from 788 consumers across sixteen traceability pilot cities, China. The findings indicate that consumers value certification more than other pork traits, while only preference on farmerinfo labeling significantly imcreases in negative information group. Highly valued farmerinfo and free range labeling in same class from positive information shock, while consumer preference for free range in one class from negative group. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212609&r=cna |
| By: | Yan, Zhen; Zhou, Jie-hong |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of recent media reports on pork safety problems at source have attracted great attention and thought to be a growing threat to risk perception amplification on pork safety, even leading to public panic. This paper was among the first to explore the impact of media report about potential benefits and risk of traceability on consumer utility valuation and preference heterogeneities for select pork traits. By capturing key issues from online media reports in last three years both on benefit and risk as information shock showed to interviewees, we investigate willingness to pay from 788 consumers across sixteen traceability pilot cities, China. The findings indicate that consumers value certification more than other pork traits, while only preference on farmerinfo labeling significantly imcreases in negative information group. Highly valued farmerinfo and free range labeling in same class from positive information shock, while consumer preference for free range in one class from negative group. |
| Keywords: | International Development, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211884&r=cna |
| By: | Qu, Song; Heerink, Nico; Xia, Ying |
| Abstract: | The expropriation of farmland in China by local governments and the compensations paid to farmers are a major source of social conflicts. Using rural household survey data collected among 450 households in three provinces, this paper examines the impacts of compensation payments and different compensation modes on farmers’ satisfaction with the land compensation. The major findings are: (1) farmers’ satisfaction with the compensation depends not only on the size of the compensation but also on the gap between the compensation and the market value of the expropriated land; (2) the compensation amount positively affects farmers’ satisfaction when the social security compensation mode is used, but does not significantly affect farmers’ satisfaction when other modes are used. We conclude by discussing the policy relevance of our findings. |
| Keywords: | farmland expropriation, farmers’ satisfaction, compensation amount, compensation mode, Farm Management, International Development, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212702&r=cna |
| By: | Zhang, Yumei; Filipski, Mateusz; Chen, Kevin Z.; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | We shed light on poverty dynamics by analyzing a census-like survey of three villages of Guizhou province during 2004 to 2011. While the absolute poverty rate is decreasing sharply in the sample, households are highly vulnerable to shocks, and rates of entry or re-entry into poverty are high. We decompose measures of wealth to reveal the proximate causes of poverty entry or exit, then use logistic regression and multivariate hazard models to look for underlying causes. Agricultural income contributes most to changes in poverty status. Poverty entry and exit are both related to household characteristics, assets, and social capital. Rural-urban migration strongly increases the probability of poverty exit, as do government transfers. The frequent changes in poverty status highlight the importance of improving policy targeting and/or implementing village-wide poverty-alleviation strategies. |
| Keywords: | poverty dynamics, hazard model, China, lagging region, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212604&r=cna |
| By: | Min, Shi; Huang, Jikun; Bai, Junfei; Waibel, Hermann |
| Abstract: | Rubber plantations have been expanding rapidly in Mekong Region including Southern China. OFten this was accompanied by negative effects for ecoystems. Intercropping in rubber plantation is suggested as a means of reducing environmental and economic risks. Based onc ross section data of some 600 rubber farmers in Xishuangbanna, we develop four empirical models to analyze adoption of intercropping at farm and at plot level. Results suggest intercropping is an important source of income for the household in the lower income category. However, only a small proportion of rubber farmers have adopted intercropping, with tea being the most frequently adopted intercrop. Major factors of adoption are ethnicity, altitude and household wealth. At plot level the nature of land and the age of rubber trees are major factors. The findings provide important information for agricultural extension services who want to promote complementary income sources in the context of recently falling rubber prices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212463&r=cna |
| By: | Che, Yi; Lu, Yi; Pierce, Justin R.; Schott, Peter K.; Tao, Zhigang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance. |
| Keywords: | China ; Voting ; Elections ; Import Competition ; Normal Trade Relations ; World Trade Organization |
| JEL: | F13 F16 D72 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-39&r=cna |
| By: | Li, Kai; Zhou, Jie-hong; Liang, Qiao; Huang, Zuhui |
| Abstract: | The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and may not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or the U.S. Department of Agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Food safety control, Governance structure, Farmer cooperative, Agricultural company, Family farm, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212046&r=cna |
| By: | Zhou, Mo |
| Abstract: | This study undertook the residential water demand analysis based on a panel data covered 31 provinces of China during the sample period from 2004 to 2013. Two models are employed in this study: Double-Log model and EDM model. The estimates of double-log model show that the different levels of income cannot impact the water price elasticities significantly but the fixed effects estimator gives a more appropriate estimate for the water demand system. In addition, both the water price and the income are inelastic. However, with the EDM model estimations, the results reveal that the water price is elastic for the residential water demand in the short run, and the partial price-supply elasticity is negative due to estimates of total elasticities. Both two models gave the result that the residential water is an inferior good in China. |
| Keywords: | Residential Water Demand, Total Elasticity, Water Price, EDM, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C13 C23 Q25, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229774&r=cna |
| By: | Bai, Junfei; Liu, Haiyan; Wahl, Thomas; Seale, James L. Jr.; Zhang, Caiping |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Ontario’s Greenbelt legislation, a land use policy that permanently protects over 1.8 million acres of land from non-agricultural development, on farmers’ exit and investment decisions. A farm-level panel data set for 32,512 farms in Ontario is used to perform two econometric estimations: a correlated random effects Probit model of farm exit and a dynamic unobserved effects Tobit model of farm investment. The Greenbelt policy is found to have influenced both farm exit and farm investment decisions, with the impact varying depending on location within the Greenbelt. In particular, the results indicate evidence of a negative impact on farm investment, which is contrary to one of the objectives of the Greenbelt policy. |
| Keywords: | Household composition, Income, Food-away-from-home, Demographics, Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212050&r=cna |
| By: | Cheng, Yahao; Gao, Zhifeng; Seale, James L. Jr. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the determinants of meat imports of China. Results indicate that import demand is mostly determined by import price and real GDP. Imported price has a negative effect and real GDP has a positive influence on import quantity. Tariff does not have a significant effect. As GDP and consumption capacity increases, China has a large potential demand for meat imports. Some countries may gain if China’s economy continues expanding, while others, like the United States, are the most sensitive to the trade policy of China. |
| Keywords: | meat import demand, China, price elasticity, income elasticity, pork, beef, poultry, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212717&r=cna |
| By: | Yaoqi Zhang (Auburn University); Jussi Uusivuori (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Jari Kuuluvainen (University of Helsinki) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the effects of economic, demographic andinstitutional factors on land allocation between forestry and other uses.A panel data set from Hainan Island in China and a generalized least squaresestimation method, allowing individual effects for counties, are applied.The results indicate that higher timber prices have led to accelerationin rainforest exploitation, but encouraged forest investment in plantationforests. Population growth is the driving force behind the loss of naturalforests, but is positively related to plantation forests. De-collectivizationseems to have promoted plantation forests, but have not saved therainforest. A higher share of forestry land owned by state-owned enterprisesalso fosters afforestation on wasteland, but seems to lead to faster exploitationof natural forest, at least initially. The uncertainty that existed inthe early period of economic reform quickened the pace of resource extractionand deterred investment. |
| Keywords: | Forestland tenure, economic transition,deforestation, reforestation, panel data |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016050&r=cna |
| By: | Lyu, Kaiyu; Barre, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Risk aversion is a key determinate in risk management in the agricultural insurance market. Based on the unique datasets of risk preference experiment and maize producer survey in maize production areas in China, this paper explores the determinants of farmers’ CIP participation and scrutinizes the role of risk aversion in farmers’ CIP decision. Results show that risk aversion plays an important role in CIP decision, not only in the form of its’ direct effect, but also in the form of interaction term together with loss expected. We also find the purchase experience, CIP environment (village purchase ratio) and contract items (insured amount) are significant determinates in the CIP purchase decision. No significant evidence is found that serious adverse selection exists in the sampling areas. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212199&r=cna |
| By: | Zhao, Yuying |
| Abstract: | At present, China is facing a serious problem of financial exclusion in rural areas, which restricts the development of rural economy and even the comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development of the overall real economy. From the perspective of regional differences in Gansu and Jiangsu provinces and between these two provinces, this paper establishes the Index of Rural Financial Exclusion, and explores the relationship between the refined indicators. Combining the economic theory, this paper uses double logarithmic models to analyze empirically on the relationship between the balance of loans per person and two factors: the density of branches with respect to population and GDP per capita and then compares these two models. We use this model to discuss the driving factor that can help to alleviate rural financial exclusion in different regions. In this paper, comparative analysis, theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are methods used to analyze the statistical data issued by the China Banking Regulatory Commission. This paper integrates the analyses of rural financial exclusion in provinces and between provinces, and comes to these conclusions about the rural financial exclusion problem of Gansu Province and Jiangsu Province in micro and macro level: (1) the forms of rural financial difference between areas are diverse. The degree of financial exclusion in Gansu are higher than that in Jiangsu, (2) the policy-related loans issued in Gansu are effective, (3) deposits absorbed in areas that are highly financial excluded flow to the regions facing relatively slighter exclusion. The capital allocation function of rural financial markets in Gansu should be improved, (4) two indicators, balance of loans per capita and the number of financial institution branches per 10,000 populations, are positively related. If the number of financial institutions branches in Gansu Province is increased, the balance of credit per capita will be increased, further, it will alleviate rural financial exclusion effectively. |
| Keywords: | Rural finance， Financial exclusion， Regional differences， Double logarithmic model, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230134&r=cna |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Achieving deep decarbonization of the heavily coal-based energy system of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) while maintaining gross domestic product growth at an acceptable rate requires additional efforts beyond the strengthening of energy efficiency and the further introduction of renewable energy. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an essential low-carbon option for the PRC. It is currently the only near-commercial system of technologies that offers medium-to long-term opportunities to make very deep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and power plants based on coal (and other fossil fuels), while enabling the continued utilization of coal in a low-carbon way for such major applications. Drawing on relevant technical assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), consultants’ reports, and the work of ADB staff, this report assesses the potential, the barriers, and the challenges in developing CCS in the PRC and recommends necessary policy actions during the 13th Five-Year Plan and the medium term to facilitate CCS demonstration and deployment. |
| Keywords: | co2, co2 emissions, carbon dioxide emissions, ghg, energy efficiency, prc emissions, ccs, fossil fuels, energy security, renewable energy, coal, power generation, low carbon technologies, climate change, low-carbon economy, carbon capture |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt157521-2&r=cna |
| By: | Delgado Helleseter, Miguel (California State University, Channel Islands); Kuhn, Peter J. (University of California, Santa Barbara); Shen, Kailing (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | When permitted by law, employers sometimes state the preferred age and sex of their employees in job ads. We study this practice using data from one Mexican and three Chinese job boards, showing that it is widely used to request both genders and is especially prevalent in jobs with low skill requirements. For example, on the job board serving less-skilled production and service workers in China, 72 percent of ads specified a preferred gender, and 77 percent listed both a minimum and maximum age. We also document a new stylized fact we call the age twist in gender profiling: firms' explicit gender requests shift dramatically away from women and towards men when firms are seeking older (as opposed to younger) workers. While some of this twist can be attributed to employers' age-dependent requests for (female) beauty and (male) leadership, the timing of the shift suggests that young women's movement into childbearing also plays a role. |
| Keywords: | gender, discrimination, age, China, Mexico, Internet, beauty, search, recruiting, screening |
| JEL: | J16 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9891&r=cna |